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000
FXUS66 KLOX 060547
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATE OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE
THIS EVENING. A GLANCE AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. AN OFFSHORE FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AND THE ADVISORY REMAINS INTACT.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SANTA ANA EVENT BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST 850 AND 950 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS WITH KLAX-DAG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPROACHING -9 MB. WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5
TO -6 MB TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN
FAVORED PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON
LIFE SUPPORT BUT WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT
TUESDAY SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE
LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER,
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS, POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS
TO AT LEAST TREND ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
70S WED-FRI. STILL A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

06/0545Z

AT 05Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VERY HIGH CONFIDECNE IN CAVU TAFS XCP AT KPRB WHERE THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 11Z-15Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LLWS OR
TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z AT KOXR...KVNY AND KBUR.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LLWS OR TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...09/900 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS COULD CREATE
LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER ON MONDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH/HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 060547
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATE OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE
THIS EVENING. A GLANCE AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. AN OFFSHORE FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AND THE ADVISORY REMAINS INTACT.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SANTA ANA EVENT BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST 850 AND 950 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS WITH KLAX-DAG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPROACHING -9 MB. WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5
TO -6 MB TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN
FAVORED PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON
LIFE SUPPORT BUT WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT
TUESDAY SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE
LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER,
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS, POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS
TO AT LEAST TREND ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
70S WED-FRI. STILL A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

06/0545Z

AT 05Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VERY HIGH CONFIDECNE IN CAVU TAFS XCP AT KPRB WHERE THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 11Z-15Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LLWS OR
TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z AT KOXR...KVNY AND KBUR.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LLWS OR TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...09/900 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS COULD CREATE
LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER ON MONDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH/HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 060547
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATE OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE
THIS EVENING. A GLANCE AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. AN OFFSHORE FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AND THE ADVISORY REMAINS INTACT.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SANTA ANA EVENT BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST 850 AND 950 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS WITH KLAX-DAG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPROACHING -9 MB. WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5
TO -6 MB TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN
FAVORED PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON
LIFE SUPPORT BUT WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT
TUESDAY SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE
LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER,
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS, POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS
TO AT LEAST TREND ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
70S WED-FRI. STILL A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

06/0545Z

AT 05Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VERY HIGH CONFIDECNE IN CAVU TAFS XCP AT KPRB WHERE THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 11Z-15Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LLWS OR
TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z AT KOXR...KVNY AND KBUR.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LLWS OR TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...09/900 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS COULD CREATE
LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER ON MONDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH/HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 060511
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
911 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATE OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE
THIS EVENING. A GLANCE AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. AN OFFSHORE FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AND THE ADVISORY REMAINS INTACT.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SANTA ANA EVENT BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST 850 AND 950 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS WITH KLAX-DAG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPROACHING -9 MB. WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5
TO -6 MB TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN
FAVORED PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON
LIFE SUPPORT BUT WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT
TUESDAY SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE
LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER,
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS, POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS
TO AT LEAST TREND ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
70S WED-FRI. STILL A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD AT VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND
18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TWIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z
AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...09/900 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS COULD CREATE
LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER ON MONDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH/HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 060511
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
911 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATE OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE
THIS EVENING. A GLANCE AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. AN OFFSHORE FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AND THE ADVISORY REMAINS INTACT.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SANTA ANA EVENT BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST 850 AND 950 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS WITH KLAX-DAG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPROACHING -9 MB. WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5
TO -6 MB TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN
FAVORED PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON
LIFE SUPPORT BUT WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT
TUESDAY SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE
LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER,
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS, POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS
TO AT LEAST TREND ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
70S WED-FRI. STILL A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD AT VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND
18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TWIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z
AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...09/900 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS COULD CREATE
LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER ON MONDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH/HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 060511
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
911 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATE OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE
THIS EVENING. A GLANCE AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. AN OFFSHORE FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AND THE ADVISORY REMAINS INTACT.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SANTA ANA EVENT BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST 850 AND 950 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS WITH KLAX-DAG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPROACHING -9 MB. WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5
TO -6 MB TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN
FAVORED PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON
LIFE SUPPORT BUT WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT
TUESDAY SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE
LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER,
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS, POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS
TO AT LEAST TREND ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
70S WED-FRI. STILL A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD AT VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND
18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TWIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z
AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...09/900 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS COULD CREATE
LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER ON MONDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH/HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 060025
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED AVATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN INTENSITY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA EVENT
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY. RECORD WARMTH IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-MON)

MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5 TO -6 MB TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN FAVORED PARTS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON LIFE SUPPORT BUT
WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL
SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT TUESDAY SO WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE
MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS,
POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A
BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS TO AT LEAST TREND
ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S WED-FRI. STILL
A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD AT VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND
18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TWIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z
AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...05/200 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER SATURDAY THAN THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND WILL LIKELY END THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BEACHES...05/200 PM.

SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AND LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
EVENING IN VENTURA COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT. THE
NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED LAST NIGHT AND WILL FALL BELOW 10 FEET THIS
EVENING. LOW TIDE AROUND ZERO FEET HAD OCCURRED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH TIDE NEAR 4 FEET IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
NEAR 6 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONE 40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
      PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 060025
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED AVATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN INTENSITY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA EVENT
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY. RECORD WARMTH IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-MON)

MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5 TO -6 MB TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN FAVORED PARTS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON LIFE SUPPORT BUT
WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL
SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT TUESDAY SO WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE
MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS,
POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A
BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS TO AT LEAST TREND
ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S WED-FRI. STILL
A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD AT VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND
18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TWIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z
AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...05/200 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER SATURDAY THAN THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND WILL LIKELY END THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BEACHES...05/200 PM.

SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AND LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
EVENING IN VENTURA COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT. THE
NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED LAST NIGHT AND WILL FALL BELOW 10 FEET THIS
EVENING. LOW TIDE AROUND ZERO FEET HAD OCCURRED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH TIDE NEAR 4 FEET IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
NEAR 6 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONE 40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
      PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 060025
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED AVATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN INTENSITY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA EVENT
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY. RECORD WARMTH IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-MON)

MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5 TO -6 MB TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN FAVORED PARTS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON LIFE SUPPORT BUT
WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL
SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT TUESDAY SO WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE
MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS,
POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A
BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS TO AT LEAST TREND
ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S WED-FRI. STILL
A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD AT VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND
18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TWIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z
AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...05/200 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER SATURDAY THAN THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND WILL LIKELY END THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BEACHES...05/200 PM.

SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AND LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
EVENING IN VENTURA COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT. THE
NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED LAST NIGHT AND WILL FALL BELOW 10 FEET THIS
EVENING. LOW TIDE AROUND ZERO FEET HAD OCCURRED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH TIDE NEAR 4 FEET IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
NEAR 6 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONE 40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
      PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 052137
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
137 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN INTENSITY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA EVENT
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY. RECORD WARMTH IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-MON)

MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5 TO -6 MB TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN FAVORED PARTS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON LIFE SUPPORT BUT
WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL
SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT TUESDAY SO WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE
MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS,
POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A
BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS TO AT LEAST TREND
ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S WED-FRI. STILL
A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1800Z...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL WEAK TO MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL
BECOME WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST AFTER 06/22Z WHILE MID LEVEL
LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST BY 06/05Z. MIXED WEAK
ONSHORE AND WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
06/04Z AND AFTER 06/20Z OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1700Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS VERY LIKELY AND OFFSHORE
SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 8 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...05/200 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER SATURDAY THAN THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND WILL LIKELY END THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BEACHES...05/200 PM...

SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AND LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
EVENING IN VENTURA COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT. THE
NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED LAST NIGHT AND WILL FALL BELOW 10 FEET THIS
EVENING. LOW TIDE AROUND ZERO FEET HAD OCCURRED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH TIDE NEAR 4 FEET IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
NEAR 6 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONE 40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
      PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
BEACHES...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 051802
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1002 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN
INTENSITY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD WARMTH IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)

SANTA ANA WINDS REALLY STRUGGLING TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE ACTUALLY LIGHTER IN SOME AREAS THAN AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWED 35-40KT BELOW 850MB BUT
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THAT`S REALLY HAPPENING AS GRADIENTS ARE
ABOUT 1MB LESS THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY AND MOST AREAS ARE 35KT OR
LESS. UPPER SUPPORT IS ABOUT THE SAME TOMORROW BUT ODDLY ENOUGH NOW
THE NAM IS FORECASTING A STRONGER GRADIENT THAN TODAY RATHER THAN
WEAKER SO PERHAPS WINDS WILL HAVE BETTER SUPPORT FOR REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS THEN. SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY
THAN A GOOD 10KT STRONGER MONDAY. IN SHORT, MARGINAL ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPS THEN SOLID
ADVISORY AND PERHAPS LOW END WARNING LEVEL WINDS IN SOME AREAS
MONDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL CA. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SAT
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO GET CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED ADVISORY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE GETTING WINDS THIS
MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT MAY BE JUST UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
SAT...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS WILL WILL RISE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY VLYS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)
THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL MON...THEN IT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
STATE ON TUE. THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE WRF HAVE REALLY
RAMPED UP THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FOR MONDAY MORNING...NOW MORE THAN
9 MB OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG! IT ALSO SHOWS VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS UP TO 50 KNOTS
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN VTU COUNTIES. THE GFS ALSO HAS
STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OF 4 MB BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG...STRONG FOR
THAT MODEL. BASED ON THE GRADIENTS ALONE...WIND ADVISORIES WOULD BE
NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AND IF THE WRF IS CORRECT WITH THE WIND ALOFT
AND SUBSIDENCE...THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT STRONG SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON MON. BASED ON THICKNESSES AND
950 MB TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO
NEAR RECORD NORMAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...IF THE WINDS ARE
AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY THE WRF...SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE DESERTS
COULD OFFSET ANY WARMING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER ON TUE...BUT
WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. A HIGH TEMP OF 90 DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA MON OR TUE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION ON WED. HEIGHTS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY...AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY SO ON THE COASTAL
PLAIN. MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON THU AS A BROAD TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE ERN PAC...CAUSING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
REGION TO FALL. MAX TEMPS STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1800Z...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL WEAK TO MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL
BECOME WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST AFTER 06/22Z WHILE MID LEVEL
LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST BY 06/05Z. MIXED WEAK
ONSHORE AND WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
06/04Z AND AFTER 06/20Z OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1700Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS VERY LIKELY AND OFFSHORE
SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 8 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...05/900 AM...

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL LIKLEY BE SHORT-LIVED TODAY AND BECOME NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME STRONGER SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT GALE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FROM PIEDRAS
BLANCAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WILL LIKELY END THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BEACHES...04/900 AM...

SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AND LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
EVENING ALONG VENTURA COUNTY AND ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT.
THE NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED LAST NIGHT AND WILL FALL BELOW 10 FEET
THIS EVENING. HIGH TIDE WAS EARLIER THIS MORNING AND LOW TIDE
AROUND ZERO FEET WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35-51. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONE 40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
      PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
BEACHES...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 051743
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
943 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN
INTENSITY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD WARMTH IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)

SANTA ANA WINDS REALLY STRUGGLING TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE ACTUALLY LIGHTER IN SOME AREAS THAN AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWED 35-40KT BELOW 850MB BUT
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THAT`S REALLY HAPPENING AS GRADIENTS ARE
ABOUT 1MB LESS THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY AND MOST AREAS ARE 35KT OR
LESS. UPPER SUPPORT IS ABOUT THE SAME TOMORROW BUT ODDLY ENOUGH NOW
THE NAM IS FORECASTING A STRONGER GRADIENT THAN TODAY RATHER THAN
WEAKER SO PERHAPS WINDS WILL HAVE BETTER SUPPORT FOR REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS THEN. SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY
THAN A GOOD 10KT STRONGER MONDAY. IN SHORT, MARGINAL ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPS THEN SOLID
ADVISORY AND PERHAPS LOW END WARNING LEVEL WINDS IN SOME AREAS
MONDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL CA. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SAT
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO GET CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED ADVISORY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE GETTING WINDS THIS
MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT MAY BE JUST UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
SAT...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS WILL WILL RISE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY VLYS AND COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)

THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL MON...THEN IT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUE. THE
LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE WRF HAVE REALLY RAMPED UP THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FOR MONDAY MORNING...NOW MORE THAN 9 MB
OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG! IT ALSO SHOWS VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS UP TO 50 KNOTS
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN VTU COUNTIES. THE GFS ALSO HAS
STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OF 4 MB BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG...STRONG
FOR THAT MODEL. BASED ON THE GRADIENTS ALONE...WIND ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AND IF THE WRF IS CORRECT WITH THE
WIND ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE...THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT STRONG
SANTA ANA WIND EVENT ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON MON. BASED ON
THICKNESSES AND 950 MB TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON MON...TO NEAR RECORD NORMAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS.
HOWEVER...IF THE WINDS ARE AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY THE
WRF...SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE DESERTS COULD OFFSET ANY WARMING.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER ON TUE...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A HIGH TEMP OF 90
DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST
AREA MON OR TUE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON
WED. HEIGHTS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY...AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME
NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY SO ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON THU AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE ERN PAC...CAUSING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION
TO FALL. MAX TEMPS STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1115Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL SITES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LGT
TO LOCALLY MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7
KNOTS OR LESS...BUT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT THE WINDS COULD
BECOME A BIT STRONGER AFTER SUNRISE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY FROM SUNRISE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...05/900 AM...

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL LIKLEY BE SHORT-LIVED TODAY AND BECOME NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME STRONGER SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT GALE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FROM PIEDRAS
BLANCAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WILL LIKELY END THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BEACHES...05/900 AM...

SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AND LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
EVENING ALONG VENTURA COUNTY AND ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT.
THE NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED LAST NIGHT AND WILL FALL BELOW 10 FEET
THIS EVENING. HIGH TIDE WAS EARLIER THIS MORNING AND LOW TIDE
AROUND ZERO FEET WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONE 40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
      PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...30
BEACHES...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 051743
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
943 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN
INTENSITY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD WARMTH IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)

SANTA ANA WINDS REALLY STRUGGLING TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE ACTUALLY LIGHTER IN SOME AREAS THAN AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWED 35-40KT BELOW 850MB BUT
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THAT`S REALLY HAPPENING AS GRADIENTS ARE
ABOUT 1MB LESS THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY AND MOST AREAS ARE 35KT OR
LESS. UPPER SUPPORT IS ABOUT THE SAME TOMORROW BUT ODDLY ENOUGH NOW
THE NAM IS FORECASTING A STRONGER GRADIENT THAN TODAY RATHER THAN
WEAKER SO PERHAPS WINDS WILL HAVE BETTER SUPPORT FOR REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS THEN. SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY
THAN A GOOD 10KT STRONGER MONDAY. IN SHORT, MARGINAL ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPS THEN SOLID
ADVISORY AND PERHAPS LOW END WARNING LEVEL WINDS IN SOME AREAS
MONDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL CA. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SAT
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO GET CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED ADVISORY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE GETTING WINDS THIS
MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT MAY BE JUST UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
SAT...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS WILL WILL RISE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY VLYS AND COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)

THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL MON...THEN IT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUE. THE
LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE WRF HAVE REALLY RAMPED UP THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FOR MONDAY MORNING...NOW MORE THAN 9 MB
OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG! IT ALSO SHOWS VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS UP TO 50 KNOTS
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN VTU COUNTIES. THE GFS ALSO HAS
STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OF 4 MB BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG...STRONG
FOR THAT MODEL. BASED ON THE GRADIENTS ALONE...WIND ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AND IF THE WRF IS CORRECT WITH THE
WIND ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE...THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT STRONG
SANTA ANA WIND EVENT ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON MON. BASED ON
THICKNESSES AND 950 MB TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON MON...TO NEAR RECORD NORMAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS.
HOWEVER...IF THE WINDS ARE AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY THE
WRF...SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE DESERTS COULD OFFSET ANY WARMING.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER ON TUE...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A HIGH TEMP OF 90
DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST
AREA MON OR TUE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON
WED. HEIGHTS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY...AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME
NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY SO ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON THU AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE ERN PAC...CAUSING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION
TO FALL. MAX TEMPS STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1115Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL SITES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LGT
TO LOCALLY MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7
KNOTS OR LESS...BUT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT THE WINDS COULD
BECOME A BIT STRONGER AFTER SUNRISE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY FROM SUNRISE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...05/900 AM...

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL LIKLEY BE SHORT-LIVED TODAY AND BECOME NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME STRONGER SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT GALE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FROM PIEDRAS
BLANCAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WILL LIKELY END THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BEACHES...05/900 AM...

SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AND LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
EVENING ALONG VENTURA COUNTY AND ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT.
THE NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED LAST NIGHT AND WILL FALL BELOW 10 FEET
THIS EVENING. HIGH TIDE WAS EARLIER THIS MORNING AND LOW TIDE
AROUND ZERO FEET WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONE 40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
      PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...30
BEACHES...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 051743
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
943 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN
INTENSITY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD WARMTH IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)

SANTA ANA WINDS REALLY STRUGGLING TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE ACTUALLY LIGHTER IN SOME AREAS THAN AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWED 35-40KT BELOW 850MB BUT
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THAT`S REALLY HAPPENING AS GRADIENTS ARE
ABOUT 1MB LESS THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY AND MOST AREAS ARE 35KT OR
LESS. UPPER SUPPORT IS ABOUT THE SAME TOMORROW BUT ODDLY ENOUGH NOW
THE NAM IS FORECASTING A STRONGER GRADIENT THAN TODAY RATHER THAN
WEAKER SO PERHAPS WINDS WILL HAVE BETTER SUPPORT FOR REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS THEN. SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY
THAN A GOOD 10KT STRONGER MONDAY. IN SHORT, MARGINAL ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPS THEN SOLID
ADVISORY AND PERHAPS LOW END WARNING LEVEL WINDS IN SOME AREAS
MONDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL CA. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SAT
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO GET CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED ADVISORY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE GETTING WINDS THIS
MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT MAY BE JUST UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
SAT...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS WILL WILL RISE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY VLYS AND COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)

THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL MON...THEN IT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUE. THE
LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE WRF HAVE REALLY RAMPED UP THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FOR MONDAY MORNING...NOW MORE THAN 9 MB
OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG! IT ALSO SHOWS VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS UP TO 50 KNOTS
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN VTU COUNTIES. THE GFS ALSO HAS
STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OF 4 MB BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG...STRONG
FOR THAT MODEL. BASED ON THE GRADIENTS ALONE...WIND ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AND IF THE WRF IS CORRECT WITH THE
WIND ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE...THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT STRONG
SANTA ANA WIND EVENT ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON MON. BASED ON
THICKNESSES AND 950 MB TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON MON...TO NEAR RECORD NORMAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS.
HOWEVER...IF THE WINDS ARE AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY THE
WRF...SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE DESERTS COULD OFFSET ANY WARMING.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER ON TUE...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A HIGH TEMP OF 90
DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST
AREA MON OR TUE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON
WED. HEIGHTS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY...AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME
NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY SO ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON THU AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE ERN PAC...CAUSING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION
TO FALL. MAX TEMPS STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1115Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL SITES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LGT
TO LOCALLY MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7
KNOTS OR LESS...BUT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT THE WINDS COULD
BECOME A BIT STRONGER AFTER SUNRISE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY FROM SUNRISE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...05/900 AM...

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL LIKLEY BE SHORT-LIVED TODAY AND BECOME NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME STRONGER SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT GALE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FROM PIEDRAS
BLANCAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WILL LIKELY END THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BEACHES...05/900 AM...

SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AND LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
EVENING ALONG VENTURA COUNTY AND ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT.
THE NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED LAST NIGHT AND WILL FALL BELOW 10 FEET
THIS EVENING. HIGH TIDE WAS EARLIER THIS MORNING AND LOW TIDE
AROUND ZERO FEET WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONE 40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
      PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...30
BEACHES...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 051211
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SLOW COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME. OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND WERE NOW
RUNNING OVER 5 MB OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED SOME SUBSIDENCE SPREADING INTO THE REGION. GUSTY
WINDS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD IN THE MTNS...AND HAVE
BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...THE VTU
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN...AND THE L.A. COUNTY COAST BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. HAVE ADDED THAT PORTION
OF THE L.A. COUNTY COAST TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING...WHICH
ALREADY INCLUDED THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS AND THE VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND
COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE MTNS...AND TO 40
TO 45 MPH IN FAVORED COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. ISOLATED GUSTS TO
60 MPH AT POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS. WITH RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND
SOME WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB...EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN
MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS W OF THE MTNS...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL CA. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SAT
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO GET CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED ADVISORY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE GETTING WINDS THIS
MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT MAY BE JUST UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
SAT...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS WILL WILL RISE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY VLYS AND COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL MON...THEN IT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
STATE ON TUE. THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE WRF HAVE REALLY
RAMPED UP THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FOR MONDAY MORNING...NOW MORE THAN
9 MB OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG! IT ALSO SHOWS VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS UP TO 50 KNOTS
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN VTU COUNTIES. THE GFS ALSO HAS
STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OF 4 MB BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG...STRONG FOR
THAT MODEL. BASED ON THE GRADIENTS ALONE...WIND ADVISORIES WOULD BE
NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AND IF THE WRF IS CORRECT WITH THE WIND ALOFT
AND SUBSIDENCE...THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT STRONG SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON MON. BASED ON THICKNESSES AND
950 MB TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO
NEAR RECORD NORMAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...IF THE WINDS ARE
AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY THE WRF...SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE DESERTS
COULD OFFSET ANY WARMING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER ON TUE...BUT
WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. A HIGH TEMP OF 90 DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA MON OR TUE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION ON WED. HEIGHTS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY...AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY SO ON THE COASTAL
PLAIN. MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON THU AS A BROAD TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE ERN PAC...CAUSING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
REGION TO FALL. MAX TEMPS STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1115Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL SITES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LGT
TO LOCALLY MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7
KNOTS OR LESS...BUT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT THE WINDS COULD
BECOME A BIT STRONGER AFTER SUNRISE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY FROM SUNRISE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP. 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...05/230 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS SHOULD END BY MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST AS HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND NO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OFFSHORE WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA
MONICA THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A REPEAT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
OFFSHORE WINDS. SOME LEVEL OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. &&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 051211
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SLOW COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME. OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND WERE NOW
RUNNING OVER 5 MB OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED SOME SUBSIDENCE SPREADING INTO THE REGION. GUSTY
WINDS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD IN THE MTNS...AND HAVE
BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...THE VTU
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN...AND THE L.A. COUNTY COAST BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. HAVE ADDED THAT PORTION
OF THE L.A. COUNTY COAST TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING...WHICH
ALREADY INCLUDED THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS AND THE VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND
COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE MTNS...AND TO 40
TO 45 MPH IN FAVORED COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. ISOLATED GUSTS TO
60 MPH AT POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS. WITH RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND
SOME WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB...EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN
MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS W OF THE MTNS...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL CA. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SAT
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO GET CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED ADVISORY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE GETTING WINDS THIS
MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT MAY BE JUST UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
SAT...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS WILL WILL RISE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY VLYS AND COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL MON...THEN IT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
STATE ON TUE. THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE WRF HAVE REALLY
RAMPED UP THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FOR MONDAY MORNING...NOW MORE THAN
9 MB OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG! IT ALSO SHOWS VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS UP TO 50 KNOTS
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN VTU COUNTIES. THE GFS ALSO HAS
STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OF 4 MB BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG...STRONG FOR
THAT MODEL. BASED ON THE GRADIENTS ALONE...WIND ADVISORIES WOULD BE
NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AND IF THE WRF IS CORRECT WITH THE WIND ALOFT
AND SUBSIDENCE...THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT STRONG SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON MON. BASED ON THICKNESSES AND
950 MB TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO
NEAR RECORD NORMAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...IF THE WINDS ARE
AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY THE WRF...SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE DESERTS
COULD OFFSET ANY WARMING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER ON TUE...BUT
WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. A HIGH TEMP OF 90 DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA MON OR TUE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION ON WED. HEIGHTS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY...AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY SO ON THE COASTAL
PLAIN. MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON THU AS A BROAD TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE ERN PAC...CAUSING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
REGION TO FALL. MAX TEMPS STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1115Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL SITES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LGT
TO LOCALLY MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7
KNOTS OR LESS...BUT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT THE WINDS COULD
BECOME A BIT STRONGER AFTER SUNRISE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY FROM SUNRISE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP. 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...05/230 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS SHOULD END BY MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST AS HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND NO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OFFSHORE WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA
MONICA THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A REPEAT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
OFFSHORE WINDS. SOME LEVEL OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. &&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 051211
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SLOW COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME. OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND WERE NOW
RUNNING OVER 5 MB OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED SOME SUBSIDENCE SPREADING INTO THE REGION. GUSTY
WINDS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD IN THE MTNS...AND HAVE
BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...THE VTU
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN...AND THE L.A. COUNTY COAST BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. HAVE ADDED THAT PORTION
OF THE L.A. COUNTY COAST TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING...WHICH
ALREADY INCLUDED THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS AND THE VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND
COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE MTNS...AND TO 40
TO 45 MPH IN FAVORED COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. ISOLATED GUSTS TO
60 MPH AT POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS. WITH RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND
SOME WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB...EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN
MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS W OF THE MTNS...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL CA. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SAT
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO GET CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED ADVISORY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE GETTING WINDS THIS
MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT MAY BE JUST UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
SAT...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS WILL WILL RISE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY VLYS AND COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL MON...THEN IT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
STATE ON TUE. THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE WRF HAVE REALLY
RAMPED UP THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FOR MONDAY MORNING...NOW MORE THAN
9 MB OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG! IT ALSO SHOWS VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS UP TO 50 KNOTS
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN VTU COUNTIES. THE GFS ALSO HAS
STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OF 4 MB BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG...STRONG FOR
THAT MODEL. BASED ON THE GRADIENTS ALONE...WIND ADVISORIES WOULD BE
NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AND IF THE WRF IS CORRECT WITH THE WIND ALOFT
AND SUBSIDENCE...THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT STRONG SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON MON. BASED ON THICKNESSES AND
950 MB TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO
NEAR RECORD NORMAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...IF THE WINDS ARE
AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY THE WRF...SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE DESERTS
COULD OFFSET ANY WARMING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER ON TUE...BUT
WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. A HIGH TEMP OF 90 DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA MON OR TUE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION ON WED. HEIGHTS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY...AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY SO ON THE COASTAL
PLAIN. MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON THU AS A BROAD TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE ERN PAC...CAUSING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
REGION TO FALL. MAX TEMPS STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1115Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL SITES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LGT
TO LOCALLY MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7
KNOTS OR LESS...BUT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT THE WINDS COULD
BECOME A BIT STRONGER AFTER SUNRISE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY FROM SUNRISE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP. 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...05/230 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS SHOULD END BY MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST AS HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND NO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OFFSHORE WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA
MONICA THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A REPEAT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
OFFSHORE WINDS. SOME LEVEL OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. &&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 050533 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WARM AIR MASS WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
THIS EVENING AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TONIGHT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWS A 1043 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEVADA CURRENTLY AND KLAX-
KTPH SURFACE PRESSURE ARE TRENDING STRONGLY OFFSHORE TO -13 MB. KLAX-
KDAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE APPROACHING -6 MB THIS EVENING.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS INITIALIZING OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LESS
IDEALLY...A WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST
AND WINDS WERE STRENGTHENED IN THE PACKAGE SLIGHTLY. FUTURE SHIFTS
COULD ADD LOS ANGELES COUNTY TO THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PORTIONS
OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST BETWEEN MALIBU AND THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO INCREASED AS MORE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD WARM
UP THE COASTAL SECTIONS ON FRIDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND SHOULD
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODELS SHOW A VERY SLIGHT DROP OFF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND KNOCKS
DOWN THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT AND UPPER SUPPORT A SKOSH. DEPENDING ON
HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET TOMORROW THE SAT DECREASE MAY STILL KEEP
WINDS IN MANY AREAS IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY AND WILL EVALUATE THAT
FRIDAY AND DECIDE IF THOSE NEED EXTENDING.

WINDS POP UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW END ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS WITH HIGH 70S BY SAT AND LOW TO MID
80S BY SUN.

LONG TERM...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS BUMP UP A LITTLE AGAIN MONDAY FOR
CONTINUED GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. GRADIENTS LIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY BUT LOW LVL TEMPS PEAK WITH 950MB TEMPS AROUND 24C. SO
DESPITE THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK TUESDAY
IN MOST AREAS BEFORE DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND GRADIENTS TURN BACK ONSHORE. ON THU THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A WEAK TROF
PUSHES ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. MODELS ONLY SHOW SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS AND NO PRECIP. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT IT`S LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0530Z.

AT 05Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE PD EXCEPT SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY FROM 10Z-17Z. SOME MDT TO STG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED FROM 08Z-21Z...
ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL AND VLY AREAS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES. SOME MDT
UDDF ARE XPCTD IN L.A./VTU COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS 8 KNOTS OR GREATER BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF NE WINDS EXCEEDING 20 KT BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/900 PM.

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SEAS
CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BETWEEN NEAR SHORE VENTURA AND SANTA
MONICA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AFTER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHOPPY SEAS COULD OCCUR AT EAST
FACING HARBOR FRIDAY SUCH AS AVALON HARBOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 050533 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WARM AIR MASS WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
THIS EVENING AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TONIGHT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWS A 1043 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEVADA CURRENTLY AND KLAX-
KTPH SURFACE PRESSURE ARE TRENDING STRONGLY OFFSHORE TO -13 MB. KLAX-
KDAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE APPROACHING -6 MB THIS EVENING.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS INITIALIZING OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LESS
IDEALLY...A WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST
AND WINDS WERE STRENGTHENED IN THE PACKAGE SLIGHTLY. FUTURE SHIFTS
COULD ADD LOS ANGELES COUNTY TO THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PORTIONS
OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST BETWEEN MALIBU AND THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO INCREASED AS MORE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD WARM
UP THE COASTAL SECTIONS ON FRIDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND SHOULD
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODELS SHOW A VERY SLIGHT DROP OFF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND KNOCKS
DOWN THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT AND UPPER SUPPORT A SKOSH. DEPENDING ON
HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET TOMORROW THE SAT DECREASE MAY STILL KEEP
WINDS IN MANY AREAS IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY AND WILL EVALUATE THAT
FRIDAY AND DECIDE IF THOSE NEED EXTENDING.

WINDS POP UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW END ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS WITH HIGH 70S BY SAT AND LOW TO MID
80S BY SUN.

LONG TERM...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS BUMP UP A LITTLE AGAIN MONDAY FOR
CONTINUED GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. GRADIENTS LIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY BUT LOW LVL TEMPS PEAK WITH 950MB TEMPS AROUND 24C. SO
DESPITE THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK TUESDAY
IN MOST AREAS BEFORE DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND GRADIENTS TURN BACK ONSHORE. ON THU THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A WEAK TROF
PUSHES ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. MODELS ONLY SHOW SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS AND NO PRECIP. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT IT`S LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0530Z.

AT 05Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE PD EXCEPT SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY FROM 10Z-17Z. SOME MDT TO STG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED FROM 08Z-21Z...
ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL AND VLY AREAS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES. SOME MDT
UDDF ARE XPCTD IN L.A./VTU COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS 8 KNOTS OR GREATER BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF NE WINDS EXCEEDING 20 KT BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/900 PM.

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SEAS
CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BETWEEN NEAR SHORE VENTURA AND SANTA
MONICA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AFTER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHOPPY SEAS COULD OCCUR AT EAST
FACING HARBOR FRIDAY SUCH AS AVALON HARBOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 050533 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WARM AIR MASS WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
THIS EVENING AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TONIGHT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWS A 1043 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEVADA CURRENTLY AND KLAX-
KTPH SURFACE PRESSURE ARE TRENDING STRONGLY OFFSHORE TO -13 MB. KLAX-
KDAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE APPROACHING -6 MB THIS EVENING.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS INITIALIZING OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LESS
IDEALLY...A WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST
AND WINDS WERE STRENGTHENED IN THE PACKAGE SLIGHTLY. FUTURE SHIFTS
COULD ADD LOS ANGELES COUNTY TO THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PORTIONS
OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST BETWEEN MALIBU AND THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO INCREASED AS MORE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD WARM
UP THE COASTAL SECTIONS ON FRIDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND SHOULD
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODELS SHOW A VERY SLIGHT DROP OFF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND KNOCKS
DOWN THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT AND UPPER SUPPORT A SKOSH. DEPENDING ON
HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET TOMORROW THE SAT DECREASE MAY STILL KEEP
WINDS IN MANY AREAS IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY AND WILL EVALUATE THAT
FRIDAY AND DECIDE IF THOSE NEED EXTENDING.

WINDS POP UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW END ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS WITH HIGH 70S BY SAT AND LOW TO MID
80S BY SUN.

LONG TERM...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS BUMP UP A LITTLE AGAIN MONDAY FOR
CONTINUED GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. GRADIENTS LIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY BUT LOW LVL TEMPS PEAK WITH 950MB TEMPS AROUND 24C. SO
DESPITE THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK TUESDAY
IN MOST AREAS BEFORE DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND GRADIENTS TURN BACK ONSHORE. ON THU THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A WEAK TROF
PUSHES ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. MODELS ONLY SHOW SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS AND NO PRECIP. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT IT`S LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0530Z.

AT 05Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE PD EXCEPT SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY FROM 10Z-17Z. SOME MDT TO STG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED FROM 08Z-21Z...
ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL AND VLY AREAS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES. SOME MDT
UDDF ARE XPCTD IN L.A./VTU COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS 8 KNOTS OR GREATER BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF NE WINDS EXCEEDING 20 KT BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/900 PM.

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SEAS
CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BETWEEN NEAR SHORE VENTURA AND SANTA
MONICA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AFTER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHOPPY SEAS COULD OCCUR AT EAST
FACING HARBOR FRIDAY SUCH AS AVALON HARBOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 050524
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
924 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WARM AIR MASS WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
THIS EVENING AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TONIGHT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWS A 1043 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEVADA CURRENTLY AND KLAX-
KTPH SURFACE PRESSURE ARE TRENDING STRONGLY OFFSHORE TO -13 MB. KLAX-
KDAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE APPROACHING -6 MB THIS EVENING.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS INITIALIZING OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LESS
IDEALLY...A WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST
AND WINDS WERE STRENGTHENED IN THE PACKAGE SLIGHTLY. FUTURE SHIFTS
COULD ADD LOS ANGELES COUNTY TO THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PORTIONS
OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST BETWEEN MALIBU AND THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO INCREASED AS MORE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD WARM
UP THE COASTAL SECTIONS ON FRIDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND SHOULD
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODELS SHOW A VERY SLIGHT DROP OFF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND KNOCKS
DOWN THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT AND UPPER SUPPORT A SKOSH. DEPENDING ON
HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET TOMORROW THE SAT DECREASE MAY STILL KEEP
WINDS IN MANY AREAS IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY AND WILL EVALUATE THAT
FRIDAY AND DECIDE IF THOSE NEED EXTENDING.

WINDS POP UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW END ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS WITH HIGH 70S BY SAT AND LOW TO MID
80S BY SUN.

LONG TERM...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS BUMP UP A LITTLE AGAIN MONDAY FOR
CONTINUED GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. GRADIENTS LIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY BUT LOW LVL TEMPS PEAK WITH 950MB TEMPS AROUND 24C. SO
DESPITE THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK TUESDAY
IN MOST AREAS BEFORE DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND GRADIENTS TURN BACK ONSHORE. ON THU THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A WEAK TROF
PUSHES ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. MODELS ONLY SHOW SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS AND NO PRECIP. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT IT`S LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...WITH THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD AT VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND
18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/900 PM.

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SEAS
CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BETWEEN NEAR SHORE VENTURA AND SANTA
MONICA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AFTER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHOPPY SEAS COULD OCCUR AT EAST
FACING HARBOR FRIDAY SUCH AS AVALON HARBOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION/MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 042358
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
358 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
BUT THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)

DRY, WARM, AND BREEZY PRETTY MUCH SUMS UP THE FORECAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. GRADIENTS AND WINDS ENDED UP BEING A LITTLE
STRONGER TODAY THAN EXPECTED WITH A FEW MTN LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS
IN THE 40S AND EVEN CAMARILLO CHECKING IN AN HOUR OR SO OF 25-30
MPH NORTHEAST WIND. OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE`RE EXPECTING WINDS TO
KICK UP ANOTHER 5-10 MPH OR SO WHICH PUTS THEM SQUARELY INTO THE
ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE LA/VENTURA MTNS AND VALLEYS. COASTAL AREAS
ARE STILL ON THE EDGE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON THOSE AREAS BUT WIND
GUSTS AT LEAST AROUND 30 ARE A STRONG BET FOR THE MORE WIND PRONE
AREAS LIKE THE OXNARD PLAIN AND MALIBU.

MODELS SHOW A VERY SLIGHT DROP OFF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND KNOCKS DOWN
THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT AND UPPER SUPPORT A SKOSH. DEPENDING ON HOW
STRONG THE WINDS GET TOMORROW THE SAT DECREASE MAY STILL KEEP
WINDS IN MANY AREAS IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY AND WILL EVALUATE
THAT FRIDAY AND DECIDE IF THOSE NEED EXTENDING.

WINDS POP UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW END ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS WITH HIGH 70S BY SAT AND LOW TO MID
80S BY SUN.

.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS BUMP UP A LITTLE AGAIN MONDAY FOR CONTINUED
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. GRADIENTS LIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT TUESDAY BUT
LOW LVL TEMPS PEAK WITH 950MB TEMPS AROUND 24C. SO DESPITE THE
WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK TUESDAY IN MOST
AREAS BEFORE DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN AND GRADIENTS TURN BACK ONSHORE. ON THU THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A WEAK TROF PUSHES
ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. MODELS ONLY SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THIS AND NO PRECIP. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT IT`S LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...WITH THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD AT VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND
18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE
BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/200 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH
MONDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...A LONG-PERIOD WEST SWELL WAS MOVING INTO THE
WATERS TODAY...BRINGING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR
THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL
BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NORTHEAST WINDS. THERE
IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS FROM
VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY. OTHER THAN THIS NORTHEAST WIND POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BEACHES...04/200 PM...

A LARGE LONG PERIOD WNW SWELL (18 TO 20 SECONDS) WILL BRING HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS WITH BREAKERS UP TO 18 FEET ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
TODAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE THE SWELL DIRECTION IS 290 DEGREES...THE
LONG PERIOD NATURE OF THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REFRACT SOME OF THE
SWELL ENERGY INTO THE INNER WATERS. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE VENTURA COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH BREAKERS UP TO 10 FEET NEAR VENTURA HARBOR.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONE
      40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
      ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PST
      FRIDAY FOR ZONES 44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
      PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
BEACHES...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...HOXSIE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 042139
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
139 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
BUT THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)

DRY, WARM, AND BREEZY PRETTY MUCH SUMS UP THE FORECAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. GRADIENTS AND WINDS ENDED UP BEING A LITTLE
STRONGER TODAY THAN EXPECTED WITH A FEW MTN LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS
IN THE 40S AND EVEN CAMARILLO CHECKING IN AN HOUR OR SO OF 25-30
MPH NORTHEAST WIND. OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE`RE EXPECTING WINDS TO
KICK UP ANOTHER 5-10 MPH OR SO WHICH PUTS THEM SQUARELY INTO THE
ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE LA/VENTURA MTNS AND VALLEYS. COASTAL AREAS
ARE STILL ON THE EDGE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON THOSE AREAS BUT WIND
GUSTS AT LEAST AROUND 30 ARE A STRONG BET FOR THE MORE WIND PRONE
AREAS LIKE THE OXNARD PLAIN AND MALIBU.

MODELS SHOW A VERY SLIGHT DROP OFF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND KNOCKS DOWN
THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT AND UPPER SUPPORT A SKOSH. DEPENDING ON HOW
STRONG THE WINDS GET TOMORROW THE SAT DECREASE MAY STILL KEEP
WINDS IN MANY AREAS IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY AND WILL EVALUATE
THAT FRIDAY AND DECIDE IF THOSE NEED EXTENDING.

WINDS POP UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW END ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS WITH HIGH 70S BY SAT AND LOW TO MID
80S BY SUN.

.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS BUMP UP A LITTLE AGAIN MONDAY FOR CONTINUED
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. GRADIENTS LIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT TUESDAY BUT
LOW LVL TEMPS PEAK WITH 950MB TEMPS AROUND 24C. SO DESPITE THE
WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK TUESDAY IN MOST
AREAS BEFORE DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN AND GRADIENTS TURN BACK ONSHORE. ON THU THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A WEAK TROF PUSHES
ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. MODELS ONLY SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THIS AND NO PRECIP. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT IT`S LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1800Z...

AT 1800Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ALL
SITES IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE USUAL SPOTS
(KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF) AND SOME LIGHT LLWS/TURBULENCE COULD
DEVELOP.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT LLWS/TURBULENCE
THROUGH 22Z.
&&

.MARINE...04/200 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH
MONDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...A LONG-PERIOD WEST SWELL WAS MOVING INTO THE
WATERS TODAY...BRINGING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR
THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL
BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NORTHEAST WINDS. THERE
IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS FROM
VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY. OTHER THAN THIS NORTHEAST WIND POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BEACHES...04/200 PM...

A LARGE LONG PERIOD WNW SWELL (18 TO 20 SECONDS) WILL BRING HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS WITH BREAKERS UP TO 18 FEET ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
TODAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE THE SWELL DIRECTION IS 290 DEGREES...THE
LONG PERIOD NATURE OF THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REFRACT SOME OF THE
SWELL ENERGY INTO THE INNER WATERS. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE VENTURA COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH BREAKERS UP TO 10 FEET NEAR VENTURA HARBOR.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONE
      40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
      ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PST
      FRIDAY FOR ZONES 44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
      PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
BEACHES...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...HOXSIE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 041901
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1055 AM PST THU FEB 4 2016

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY BUT
THE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT)

OFFSHORE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB, UP TO ALMOST 5 MB THIS
MORNING. SEEING A COUPLE LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS IN THE 40S BUT
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED WITH THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH CA TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING. OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
IMPROVE AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE A BIT...AND AN AREA OF MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT STRONGER NE WINDS
ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES FRI MORNING...PROBABLY REACHING LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS IN LOCATIONS PRONE TO GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. EXPECT
A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS ON FRI.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...WITH THIS SYSTEM DIGGING INTO BAJA CA ON SAT. AS
THIS HAPPENS...AMPLIFYING LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC WILL
NOSE INTO CENTRAL CA...SETTING UP A N TO NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. AT THE SFC...PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ON SAT WILL REMAIN ABOUT AS OFFSHORE AS THEY ARE ON FRI. WINDS COULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON
ON SAT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN
THE VLYS AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL CA ON
SUNDAY...LINGER THERE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SLIP SOUTHWARD LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
TUE MORNING. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY OFFSHORE
THROUGH TUE MORNING. EXPECT SOME GUSTY NE WINDS EACH MORNING ACROSS
GOOD PORTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW
DEGREES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY...WITH 80S WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS
AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON TUE...AND MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
DAYS IN MOST AREAS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND BE
FORCED S AND SEWD LATE TUE AND WED...AND GRADIENTS MAY TURN ONSHORE
WED AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING A BIT OF COOLING ON
WED...ESPECIALLY TO COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1800Z...

AT 1800Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ALL
SITES IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE USUAL SPOTS
(KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF) AND SOME LIGHT LLWS/TURBULENCE COULD
DEVELOP.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT LLWS/TURBULENCE
THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH
MONDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...A LONG-PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE
WATERS TODAY...BRINGING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR
THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL
BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NORTHEAST WINDS. THERE
IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS FROM
VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY. OTHER THAN THIS NORTHEAST WIND POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BEACHES...04/900 AM...

A LARGE LONG PERIOD WNW SWELL (18 TO 20 SECONDS) WILL BRING HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS WITH BREAKERS UP TO 18 FEET ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
TODAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE THE SWELL DIRECTION IS 290 DEGREES...THE
LONG PERIOD NATURE OF THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REFRACT SOME OF THE
SWELL ENERGY INTO THE INNER WATERS. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE VENTURA COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH BREAKERS UP TO 10 FEET NEAR VENTURA HARBOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONE
      40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM PST THIS
      AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
      PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
BEACHES...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...HOXSIE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 041901
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1055 AM PST THU FEB 4 2016

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY BUT
THE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT)

OFFSHORE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB, UP TO ALMOST 5 MB THIS
MORNING. SEEING A COUPLE LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS IN THE 40S BUT
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED WITH THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH CA TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING. OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
IMPROVE AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE A BIT...AND AN AREA OF MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT STRONGER NE WINDS
ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES FRI MORNING...PROBABLY REACHING LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS IN LOCATIONS PRONE TO GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. EXPECT
A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS ON FRI.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...WITH THIS SYSTEM DIGGING INTO BAJA CA ON SAT. AS
THIS HAPPENS...AMPLIFYING LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC WILL
NOSE INTO CENTRAL CA...SETTING UP A N TO NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. AT THE SFC...PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ON SAT WILL REMAIN ABOUT AS OFFSHORE AS THEY ARE ON FRI. WINDS COULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON
ON SAT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN
THE VLYS AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL CA ON
SUNDAY...LINGER THERE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SLIP SOUTHWARD LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
TUE MORNING. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY OFFSHORE
THROUGH TUE MORNING. EXPECT SOME GUSTY NE WINDS EACH MORNING ACROSS
GOOD PORTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW
DEGREES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY...WITH 80S WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS
AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON TUE...AND MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
DAYS IN MOST AREAS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND BE
FORCED S AND SEWD LATE TUE AND WED...AND GRADIENTS MAY TURN ONSHORE
WED AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING A BIT OF COOLING ON
WED...ESPECIALLY TO COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1800Z...

AT 1800Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ALL
SITES IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE USUAL SPOTS
(KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF) AND SOME LIGHT LLWS/TURBULENCE COULD
DEVELOP.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT LLWS/TURBULENCE
THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH
MONDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...A LONG-PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE
WATERS TODAY...BRINGING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR
THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL
BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NORTHEAST WINDS. THERE
IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS FROM
VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY. OTHER THAN THIS NORTHEAST WIND POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BEACHES...04/900 AM...

A LARGE LONG PERIOD WNW SWELL (18 TO 20 SECONDS) WILL BRING HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS WITH BREAKERS UP TO 18 FEET ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
TODAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE THE SWELL DIRECTION IS 290 DEGREES...THE
LONG PERIOD NATURE OF THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REFRACT SOME OF THE
SWELL ENERGY INTO THE INNER WATERS. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE VENTURA COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH BREAKERS UP TO 10 FEET NEAR VENTURA HARBOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONE
      40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM PST THIS
      AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
      PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
BEACHES...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...HOXSIE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 041901
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1055 AM PST THU FEB 4 2016

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY BUT
THE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT)

OFFSHORE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB, UP TO ALMOST 5 MB THIS
MORNING. SEEING A COUPLE LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS IN THE 40S BUT
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED WITH THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH CA TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING. OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
IMPROVE AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE A BIT...AND AN AREA OF MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT STRONGER NE WINDS
ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES FRI MORNING...PROBABLY REACHING LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS IN LOCATIONS PRONE TO GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. EXPECT
A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS ON FRI.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...WITH THIS SYSTEM DIGGING INTO BAJA CA ON SAT. AS
THIS HAPPENS...AMPLIFYING LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC WILL
NOSE INTO CENTRAL CA...SETTING UP A N TO NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. AT THE SFC...PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ON SAT WILL REMAIN ABOUT AS OFFSHORE AS THEY ARE ON FRI. WINDS COULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON
ON SAT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN
THE VLYS AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL CA ON
SUNDAY...LINGER THERE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SLIP SOUTHWARD LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
TUE MORNING. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY OFFSHORE
THROUGH TUE MORNING. EXPECT SOME GUSTY NE WINDS EACH MORNING ACROSS
GOOD PORTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW
DEGREES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY...WITH 80S WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS
AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON TUE...AND MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
DAYS IN MOST AREAS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND BE
FORCED S AND SEWD LATE TUE AND WED...AND GRADIENTS MAY TURN ONSHORE
WED AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING A BIT OF COOLING ON
WED...ESPECIALLY TO COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1800Z...

AT 1800Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ALL
SITES IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE USUAL SPOTS
(KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF) AND SOME LIGHT LLWS/TURBULENCE COULD
DEVELOP.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT LLWS/TURBULENCE
THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH
MONDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...A LONG-PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE
WATERS TODAY...BRINGING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR
THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL
BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NORTHEAST WINDS. THERE
IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS FROM
VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY. OTHER THAN THIS NORTHEAST WIND POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BEACHES...04/900 AM...

A LARGE LONG PERIOD WNW SWELL (18 TO 20 SECONDS) WILL BRING HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS WITH BREAKERS UP TO 18 FEET ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
TODAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE THE SWELL DIRECTION IS 290 DEGREES...THE
LONG PERIOD NATURE OF THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REFRACT SOME OF THE
SWELL ENERGY INTO THE INNER WATERS. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE VENTURA COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH BREAKERS UP TO 10 FEET NEAR VENTURA HARBOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONE
      40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM PST THIS
      AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
      PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
BEACHES...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...HOXSIE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 041807
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1007 AM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY BUT
THE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT)

OFFSHORE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB, UP TO ALMOST 5 MB THIS
MORNING. SEEING A COUPLE LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS IN THE 40S BUT
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED WITH THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH CA TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING. OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
IMPROVE AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE A BIT...AND AN AREA OF MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT STRONGER NE WINDS
ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES FRI MORNING...PROBABLY REACHING LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS IN LOCATIONS PRONE TO GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. EXPECT
A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS ON FRI.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...WITH THIS SYSTEM DIGGING INTO BAJA CA ON SAT. AS
THIS HAPPENS...AMPLIFYING LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC WILL
NOSE INTO CENTRAL CA...SETTING UP A N TO NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. AT THE SFC...PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ON SAT WILL REMAIN ABOUT AS OFFSHORE AS THEY ARE ON FRI. WINDS COULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON
ON SAT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN
THE VLYS AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL CA ON
SUNDAY...LINGER THERE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SLIP SOUTHWARD LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
TUE MORNING. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY OFFSHORE
THROUGH TUE MORNING. EXPECT SOME GUSTY NE WINDS EACH MORNING ACROSS
GOOD PORTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW
DEGREES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY...WITH 80S WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS
AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON TUE...AND MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
DAYS IN MOST AREAS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND BE
FORCED S AND SEWD LATE TUE AND WED...AND GRADIENTS MAY TURN ONSHORE
WED AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING A BIT OF COOLING ON
WED...ESPECIALLY TO COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1030Z...

AT 1000Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ALL SITES AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE TAR
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
USUAL SPOTS (KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF) AND SOME LIGHT
LLWS/TURBULENCE COULD DEVELOP.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT LLWS/TURBULENCE
14Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/230 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH
MONDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...A LONG-PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE
WATERS TODAY...BRINGING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR
THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL
BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NORTHEAST WINDS. THERE
IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS FROM
VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY. OTHER THAN THIS NORTHEAST WIND POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BEACHES...04/230 AM...

A LARGE LONG PERIOD WNW SWELL (18 TO 20 SECONDS) WILL BRING HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS WITH BREAKERS UP TO 18 FEET ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
TODAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE THE SWELL DIRECTION IS 290 DEGREES...THE
LONG PERIOD NATURE OF THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REFRACT SOME OF THE
SWELL ENERGY INTO THE INNER WATERS. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE VENTURA COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH BREAKERS UP TO 10 FEET NEAR VENTURA HARBOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONE
      40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM PST THIS
      AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
      PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...THOMPSON
BEACHES...THOMPSON
SYNOPSIS...HOXSIE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 041138
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
309 AM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL
DAY TODAY...THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS FROM SUNDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT
TIMES ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS.
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE OFFSHORE
AND THIS MORNING...AND WERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SO. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME GUSTY N TO NE WINDS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...IN THE VLYS OF WRN L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...ACROSS THE VTU
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU
TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. HOWEVER...EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. WITH SLIGHT RISES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES...AND A BIT OF
WARMING AT 950 MB...EXPECT A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST
AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH CA TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING. OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
IMPROVE AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE A BIT...AND AN AREA OF MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT STRONGER NE WINDS
ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES FRI MORNING...PROBABLY REACHING LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS IN LOCATIONS PRONE TO GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. EXPECT
A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS ON FRI.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...WITH THIS SYSTEM DIGGING INTO BAJA CA ON SAT. AS
THIS HAPPENS...AMPLIFYING LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC WILL
NOSE INTO CENTRAL CA...SETTING UP A N TO NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. AT THE SFC...PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ON SAT WILL REMAIN ABOUT AS OFFSHORE AS THEY ARE ON FRI. WINDS COULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON
ON SAT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN
THE VLYS AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL CA ON
SUNDAY...LINGER THERE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SLIP SOUTHWARD LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
TUE MORNING. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY OFFSHORE
THROUGH TUE MORNING. EXPECT SOME GUSTY NE WINDS EACH MORNING ACROSS
GOOD PORTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW
DEGREES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY...WITH 80S WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS
AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON TUE...AND MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
DAYS IN MOST AREAS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND BE
FORCED S AND SEWD LATE TUE AND WED...AND GRADIENTS MAY TURN ONSHORE
WED AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING A BIT OF COOLING ON
WED...ESPECIALLY TO COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1030Z...

AT 1000Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ALL SITES AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE TAR
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
USUAL SPOTS (KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF) AND SOME LIGHT
LLWS/TURBULENCE COULD DEVELOP.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT LLWS/TURBULENCE
14Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/230 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH
MONDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...A LONG-PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE
WATERS TODAY...BRINGING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR
THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL
BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NORTHEAST WINDS. THERE
IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS FROM
VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY. OTHER THAN THIS NORTHEAST WIND POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 041138
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
309 AM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL
DAY TODAY...THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS FROM SUNDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT
TIMES ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS.
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE OFFSHORE
AND THIS MORNING...AND WERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SO. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME GUSTY N TO NE WINDS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...IN THE VLYS OF WRN L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...ACROSS THE VTU
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU
TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. HOWEVER...EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. WITH SLIGHT RISES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES...AND A BIT OF
WARMING AT 950 MB...EXPECT A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST
AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH CA TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING. OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
IMPROVE AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE A BIT...AND AN AREA OF MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT STRONGER NE WINDS
ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES FRI MORNING...PROBABLY REACHING LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS IN LOCATIONS PRONE TO GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. EXPECT
A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS ON FRI.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...WITH THIS SYSTEM DIGGING INTO BAJA CA ON SAT. AS
THIS HAPPENS...AMPLIFYING LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC WILL
NOSE INTO CENTRAL CA...SETTING UP A N TO NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. AT THE SFC...PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ON SAT WILL REMAIN ABOUT AS OFFSHORE AS THEY ARE ON FRI. WINDS COULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON
ON SAT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN
THE VLYS AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL CA ON
SUNDAY...LINGER THERE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SLIP SOUTHWARD LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
TUE MORNING. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY OFFSHORE
THROUGH TUE MORNING. EXPECT SOME GUSTY NE WINDS EACH MORNING ACROSS
GOOD PORTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW
DEGREES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY...WITH 80S WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS
AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON TUE...AND MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
DAYS IN MOST AREAS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND BE
FORCED S AND SEWD LATE TUE AND WED...AND GRADIENTS MAY TURN ONSHORE
WED AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING A BIT OF COOLING ON
WED...ESPECIALLY TO COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1030Z...

AT 1000Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ALL SITES AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE TAR
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
USUAL SPOTS (KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF) AND SOME LIGHT
LLWS/TURBULENCE COULD DEVELOP.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT LLWS/TURBULENCE
14Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/230 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH
MONDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...A LONG-PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE
WATERS TODAY...BRINGING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR
THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL
BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NORTHEAST WINDS. THERE
IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS FROM
VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY. OTHER THAN THIS NORTHEAST WIND POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 040502
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
905 PM PST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY BUT
THE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...FAIR SKIES WITH SOME HI CLOUDS COVERED
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER SWRN CA TONIGHT WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HI CLOUDS MOVING
IN...OTHERWISE THE FAIR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL GUSTY NE WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU
SAT. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU SRN CA LATE
FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WELL. A FEW HI CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME SHOULD
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARYING
AMOUNTS OF HI CLOUDS WITH THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THRU SAT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD...STRONGEST NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE NAM IS FORECASTING
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OF AROUND -6.4 MB FROM LAX-DAG AT 12Z BOTH FRI
MORNING AND SAT MORNING. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE A WHOLE
LOT OF UPPER SUPPORT NOT COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS DURING THE PERIOD...BUT WIND GUSTS TO AROUND ADVISORY LEVELS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE VLYS AND
FOOTHILLS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE MALIBU COAST AND OVER THE OXNARD PLAIN NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS FROM THU NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING. SO IT APPEARS THAT
WIND ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS.

WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING 950 MB TEMPS/THICKNESSES...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON
THU THEN WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT.
HIGHS ON SAT IN THE WARMEST COAST/VLYS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 70S.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AFTER THE LAST LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REALLY TAKE
HOLD ACROSS THE WEST COAST, PEAKING IN STRENGTH ON TUESDAY. OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL NUDGE UPWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MORE ADVISORY
LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. DOESN`T SEEM LIKE THE FLOW ALOFT IS
IDEAL FOR A WARNING LEVEL EVENT BUT CAN`T RULE THAT OUT. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH 80S STARTING TO
POP UP SUNDAY AND MID TO HIGH 80S POSSIBLE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. OFFSHORE FLOW DOES START TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ENOUGH TO PROBABLY DROP WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY BUT LOW
LVL TEMPS ARE THE SAME OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER WED SO PROBABLY
LITTLE CHANGE OR SLIGHT WARMING WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0000Z...

AT 2300Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
THE AIRFIELDS THRU THU. LIGHT NE WINDS AROUND 6 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
AT KLAX 12Z-20Z THU. GUSTY N WINDS UP TO 22 KT CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KVNY THU AFTERNOON.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU EVENING. LIGHT NE WINDS AROUND 6 KT CAN BE EXPECTED 12Z-20Z
THU.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...03/800 PM

LONG PERIOD WNW SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
THEN REACH 10 FEET OR GREATER (SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS) ON THURSDAY...PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY
MORNING.  EACH MORNING FROM FRIDAY ON THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS AND ACROSS THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.BEACHES...03/800 PM

A LARGE LONG PERIOD WNW SWELL (18 TO 20 SECONDS) WILL BRING HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS WITH BREAKERS UP TO 18 FEET ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE THE SWELL DIRECTION IS 280
DEGREES...THE LONG PERIOD NATURE OF THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
REFRACT SOME OF THE SWELL ENERGY INTO THE INNER WATERS. HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE VENTURA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH BREAKERS UP TO 10 FEET NEAR VENTURA HARBOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...HOXSIE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 040502
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
905 PM PST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY BUT
THE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...FAIR SKIES WITH SOME HI CLOUDS COVERED
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER SWRN CA TONIGHT WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HI CLOUDS MOVING
IN...OTHERWISE THE FAIR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL GUSTY NE WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU
SAT. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU SRN CA LATE
FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WELL. A FEW HI CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME SHOULD
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARYING
AMOUNTS OF HI CLOUDS WITH THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THRU SAT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD...STRONGEST NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE NAM IS FORECASTING
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OF AROUND -6.4 MB FROM LAX-DAG AT 12Z BOTH FRI
MORNING AND SAT MORNING. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE A WHOLE
LOT OF UPPER SUPPORT NOT COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS DURING THE PERIOD...BUT WIND GUSTS TO AROUND ADVISORY LEVELS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE VLYS AND
FOOTHILLS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE MALIBU COAST AND OVER THE OXNARD PLAIN NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS FROM THU NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING. SO IT APPEARS THAT
WIND ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS.

WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING 950 MB TEMPS/THICKNESSES...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON
THU THEN WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT.
HIGHS ON SAT IN THE WARMEST COAST/VLYS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 70S.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AFTER THE LAST LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REALLY TAKE
HOLD ACROSS THE WEST COAST, PEAKING IN STRENGTH ON TUESDAY. OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL NUDGE UPWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MORE ADVISORY
LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. DOESN`T SEEM LIKE THE FLOW ALOFT IS
IDEAL FOR A WARNING LEVEL EVENT BUT CAN`T RULE THAT OUT. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH 80S STARTING TO
POP UP SUNDAY AND MID TO HIGH 80S POSSIBLE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. OFFSHORE FLOW DOES START TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ENOUGH TO PROBABLY DROP WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY BUT LOW
LVL TEMPS ARE THE SAME OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER WED SO PROBABLY
LITTLE CHANGE OR SLIGHT WARMING WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0000Z...

AT 2300Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
THE AIRFIELDS THRU THU. LIGHT NE WINDS AROUND 6 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
AT KLAX 12Z-20Z THU. GUSTY N WINDS UP TO 22 KT CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KVNY THU AFTERNOON.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU EVENING. LIGHT NE WINDS AROUND 6 KT CAN BE EXPECTED 12Z-20Z
THU.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...03/800 PM

LONG PERIOD WNW SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
THEN REACH 10 FEET OR GREATER (SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS) ON THURSDAY...PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY
MORNING.  EACH MORNING FROM FRIDAY ON THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS AND ACROSS THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.BEACHES...03/800 PM

A LARGE LONG PERIOD WNW SWELL (18 TO 20 SECONDS) WILL BRING HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS WITH BREAKERS UP TO 18 FEET ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE THE SWELL DIRECTION IS 280
DEGREES...THE LONG PERIOD NATURE OF THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
REFRACT SOME OF THE SWELL ENERGY INTO THE INNER WATERS. HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE VENTURA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH BREAKERS UP TO 10 FEET NEAR VENTURA HARBOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...HOXSIE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 040005 AAA
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
405 PM PST WED FEB 3 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY BUT
THE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT)

TODAY BEGINS A LONG STRETCH OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (GENERALLY < 30 MPH)
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK TROF APPROACHES TONIGHT AND BRINGS
NOTHING BUT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. ON FRIDAY THE
LAX-DAG GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO JUMP TO AT LEAST 6 MB OFFSHORE
WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO GENERATE LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL
SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL THURSDAY THEN
ABOVE NORMAL FRI/SAT WITH THE INCREASE IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE CHILLY BUT THOSE TOO
WILL BE TRENDING UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)

AFTER THE LAST LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REALLY TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE WEST
COAST, PEAKING IN STRENGTH ON TUESDAY. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
NUDGE UPWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MORE ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED. DOESN`T SEEM LIKE THE FLOW ALOFT IS IDEAL FOR A
WARNING LEVEL EVENT BUT CAN`T RULE THAT OUT. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH 80S STARTING TO POP UP
SUNDAY AND MID TO HIGH 80S POSSIBLE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. OFFSHORE FLOW DOES START TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ENOUGH TO PROBABLY DROP WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY BUT LOW
LVL TEMPS ARE THE SAME OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER WED SO PROBABLY
LITTLE CHANGE OR SLIGHT WARMING WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&

.AVIATION...04/0000Z...

AT 2300Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
THE AIRFIELDS THRU THU. LIGHT NE WINDS AROUND 6 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
AT KLAX 12Z-20Z THU. GUSTY N WINDS UP TO 22 KT CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KVNY THU AFTERNOON.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU EVENING. LIGHT NE WINDS AROUND 6 KT CAN BE EXPECTED 12Z-20Z
THU.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

03/900 AM...

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A FORECAST FREE OF ADVISORIES UNTIL MID DAY
THURSDAY WHEN A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EACH MORNING FROM
FRIDAY ON THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS AND ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. WIND GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...HOXSIE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 040005 AAA
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
405 PM PST WED FEB 3 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY BUT
THE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT)

TODAY BEGINS A LONG STRETCH OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (GENERALLY < 30 MPH)
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK TROF APPROACHES TONIGHT AND BRINGS
NOTHING BUT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. ON FRIDAY THE
LAX-DAG GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO JUMP TO AT LEAST 6 MB OFFSHORE
WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO GENERATE LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL
SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL THURSDAY THEN
ABOVE NORMAL FRI/SAT WITH THE INCREASE IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE CHILLY BUT THOSE TOO
WILL BE TRENDING UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)

AFTER THE LAST LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REALLY TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE WEST
COAST, PEAKING IN STRENGTH ON TUESDAY. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
NUDGE UPWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MORE ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED. DOESN`T SEEM LIKE THE FLOW ALOFT IS IDEAL FOR A
WARNING LEVEL EVENT BUT CAN`T RULE THAT OUT. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH 80S STARTING TO POP UP
SUNDAY AND MID TO HIGH 80S POSSIBLE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. OFFSHORE FLOW DOES START TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ENOUGH TO PROBABLY DROP WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY BUT LOW
LVL TEMPS ARE THE SAME OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER WED SO PROBABLY
LITTLE CHANGE OR SLIGHT WARMING WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&

.AVIATION...04/0000Z...

AT 2300Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
THE AIRFIELDS THRU THU. LIGHT NE WINDS AROUND 6 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
AT KLAX 12Z-20Z THU. GUSTY N WINDS UP TO 22 KT CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KVNY THU AFTERNOON.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU EVENING. LIGHT NE WINDS AROUND 6 KT CAN BE EXPECTED 12Z-20Z
THU.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

03/900 AM...

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A FORECAST FREE OF ADVISORIES UNTIL MID DAY
THURSDAY WHEN A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EACH MORNING FROM
FRIDAY ON THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS AND ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. WIND GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...HOXSIE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 032149
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
149 PM PST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY BUT
THE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT)

TODAY BEGINS A LONG STRETCH OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (GENERALLY < 30 MPH)
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK TROF APPROACHES TONIGHT AND BRINGS
NOTHING BUT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. ON FRIDAY THE
LAX-DAG GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO JUMP TO AT LEAST 6 MB OFFSHORE
WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO GENERATE LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL
SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL THURSDAY THEN
ABOVE NORMAL FRI/SAT WITH THE INCREASE IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE CHILLY BUT THOSE TOO
WILL BE TRENDING UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)

AFTER THE LAST LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REALLY TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE WEST
COAST, PEAKING IN STRENGTH ON TUESDAY. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
NUDGE UPWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MORE ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED. DOESN`T SEEM LIKE THE FLOW ALOFT IS IDEAL FOR A
WARNING LEVEL EVENT BUT CAN`T RULE THAT OUT. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH 80S STARTING TO POP UP
SUNDAY AND MID TO HIGH 80S POSSIBLE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. OFFSHORE FLOW DOES START TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ENOUGH TO PROBABLY DROP WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY BUT LOW
LVL TEMPS ARE THE SAME OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER WED SO PROBABLY
LITTLE CHANGE OR SLIGHT WARMING WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&

.AVIATION...

03/1800Z.

AT 1800Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP ALL SITES IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE SOME WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE USUAL SITES
(KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF) AT TIMES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT EAST WINDS AT AIRFIELD IN THE MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 6 KNOTS OR BELOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

03/900 AM...

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A FORECAST FREE OF ADVISORIES UNTIL MID DAY
THURSDAY WHEN A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EACH MORNING FROM
FRIDAY ON THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS AND ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. WIND GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...HOXSIE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 032149
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
149 PM PST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY BUT
THE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT)

TODAY BEGINS A LONG STRETCH OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (GENERALLY < 30 MPH)
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK TROF APPROACHES TONIGHT AND BRINGS
NOTHING BUT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. ON FRIDAY THE
LAX-DAG GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO JUMP TO AT LEAST 6 MB OFFSHORE
WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO GENERATE LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL
SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL THURSDAY THEN
ABOVE NORMAL FRI/SAT WITH THE INCREASE IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE CHILLY BUT THOSE TOO
WILL BE TRENDING UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)

AFTER THE LAST LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REALLY TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE WEST
COAST, PEAKING IN STRENGTH ON TUESDAY. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
NUDGE UPWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MORE ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED. DOESN`T SEEM LIKE THE FLOW ALOFT IS IDEAL FOR A
WARNING LEVEL EVENT BUT CAN`T RULE THAT OUT. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH 80S STARTING TO POP UP
SUNDAY AND MID TO HIGH 80S POSSIBLE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. OFFSHORE FLOW DOES START TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ENOUGH TO PROBABLY DROP WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY BUT LOW
LVL TEMPS ARE THE SAME OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER WED SO PROBABLY
LITTLE CHANGE OR SLIGHT WARMING WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&

.AVIATION...

03/1800Z.

AT 1800Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP ALL SITES IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE SOME WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE USUAL SITES
(KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF) AT TIMES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT EAST WINDS AT AIRFIELD IN THE MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 6 KNOTS OR BELOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

03/900 AM...

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A FORECAST FREE OF ADVISORIES UNTIL MID DAY
THURSDAY WHEN A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EACH MORNING FROM
FRIDAY ON THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS AND ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. WIND GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...HOXSIE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 031852
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER TODAY IN MOST AREAS. LITTLE OR NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE WEAK TROUGH MAY BRING ENOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES TO MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. AFTER THE WEAK
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST OF THE REGION ON THU...AND BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. GRADIENTS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS THU MORNING IN
THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...
ACROSS THE VTU COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS
FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THU. RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND
WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TO
MOST AREAS ON THU...WITH TEMPS UP TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH CA THU NIGHT AND TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING. OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING...AND AN AREA OF MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
WAVE. EXPECT MORE SIGNIFICANT NE WINDS ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES
FRI MORNING...AND WINDS ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN MANY
AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES...ESPECIALLY W
OF THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP
ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO BAJA ON
SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE
BAY AREA. THIS WILL SET UP A N TO NELY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE
FCST AREA. AT THE SFC...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY
OFFSHORE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES SAT MORNING. MAX TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD CONT TO
MOVE UPWARD...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN THE
WARMEST PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER VALLEYS. AN UPPER
HIGH WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OFF OF PT CONCEPTION ON SUNDAY...THEN IT
WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT NWD TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CA
SUNDAY...THE MOVE RIGHT ACROSS CA MON AND LINGER THROUGH TUE. LOCAL
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PD...WITH SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
WARMING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS BY MON RISING
WELL INTO THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS EXPECTED FOR TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1800Z.

AT 1800Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP ALL SITES IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE SOME WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE USUAL SITES
(KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF) AT TIMES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT EAST WINDS AT AIRFIELD IN THE MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 6 KNOTS OR BELOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...03/900 AM...

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A FORECAST FREE OF ADVISORIES UNTIL MID DAY
THURSDAY WHEN A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EACH MORNING FROM
FRIDAY ON THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS AND ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. WIND GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 031852
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER TODAY IN MOST AREAS. LITTLE OR NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE WEAK TROUGH MAY BRING ENOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES TO MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. AFTER THE WEAK
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST OF THE REGION ON THU...AND BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. GRADIENTS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS THU MORNING IN
THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...
ACROSS THE VTU COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS
FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THU. RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND
WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TO
MOST AREAS ON THU...WITH TEMPS UP TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH CA THU NIGHT AND TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING. OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING...AND AN AREA OF MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
WAVE. EXPECT MORE SIGNIFICANT NE WINDS ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES
FRI MORNING...AND WINDS ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN MANY
AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES...ESPECIALLY W
OF THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP
ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO BAJA ON
SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE
BAY AREA. THIS WILL SET UP A N TO NELY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE
FCST AREA. AT THE SFC...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY
OFFSHORE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES SAT MORNING. MAX TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD CONT TO
MOVE UPWARD...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN THE
WARMEST PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER VALLEYS. AN UPPER
HIGH WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OFF OF PT CONCEPTION ON SUNDAY...THEN IT
WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT NWD TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CA
SUNDAY...THE MOVE RIGHT ACROSS CA MON AND LINGER THROUGH TUE. LOCAL
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PD...WITH SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
WARMING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS BY MON RISING
WELL INTO THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS EXPECTED FOR TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1800Z.

AT 1800Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP ALL SITES IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE SOME WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE USUAL SITES
(KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF) AT TIMES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT EAST WINDS AT AIRFIELD IN THE MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 6 KNOTS OR BELOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...03/900 AM...

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A FORECAST FREE OF ADVISORIES UNTIL MID DAY
THURSDAY WHEN A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EACH MORNING FROM
FRIDAY ON THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS AND ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. WIND GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 031852
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER TODAY IN MOST AREAS. LITTLE OR NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE WEAK TROUGH MAY BRING ENOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES TO MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. AFTER THE WEAK
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST OF THE REGION ON THU...AND BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. GRADIENTS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS THU MORNING IN
THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...
ACROSS THE VTU COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS
FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THU. RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND
WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TO
MOST AREAS ON THU...WITH TEMPS UP TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH CA THU NIGHT AND TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING. OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING...AND AN AREA OF MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
WAVE. EXPECT MORE SIGNIFICANT NE WINDS ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES
FRI MORNING...AND WINDS ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN MANY
AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES...ESPECIALLY W
OF THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP
ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO BAJA ON
SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE
BAY AREA. THIS WILL SET UP A N TO NELY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE
FCST AREA. AT THE SFC...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY
OFFSHORE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES SAT MORNING. MAX TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD CONT TO
MOVE UPWARD...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN THE
WARMEST PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER VALLEYS. AN UPPER
HIGH WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OFF OF PT CONCEPTION ON SUNDAY...THEN IT
WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT NWD TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CA
SUNDAY...THE MOVE RIGHT ACROSS CA MON AND LINGER THROUGH TUE. LOCAL
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PD...WITH SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
WARMING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS BY MON RISING
WELL INTO THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS EXPECTED FOR TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1800Z.

AT 1800Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP ALL SITES IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE SOME WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE USUAL SITES
(KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF) AT TIMES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT EAST WINDS AT AIRFIELD IN THE MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 6 KNOTS OR BELOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...03/900 AM...

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A FORECAST FREE OF ADVISORIES UNTIL MID DAY
THURSDAY WHEN A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EACH MORNING FROM
FRIDAY ON THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS AND ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. WIND GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 031740
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER TODAY IN MOST AREAS. LITTLE OR NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE WEAK TROUGH MAY BRING ENOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES TO MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. AFTER THE WEAK
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST OF THE REGION ON THU...AND BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. GRADIENTS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS THU MORNING IN
THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...
ACROSS THE VTU COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS
FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THU. RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND
WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TO
MOST AREAS ON THU...WITH TEMPS UP TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH CA THU NIGHT AND TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING. OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING...AND AN AREA OF MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
WAVE. EXPECT MORE SIGNIFICANT NE WINDS ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES
FRI MORNING...AND WINDS ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN MANY
AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES...ESPECIALLY W
OF THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP
ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO BAJA ON
SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE
BAY AREA. THIS WILL SET UP A N TO NELY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE
FCST AREA. AT THE SFC...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY
OFFSHORE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES SAT MORNING. MAX TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD CONT TO
MOVE UPWARD...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN THE
WARMEST PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER VALLEYS. AN UPPER
HIGH WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OFF OF PT CONCEPTION ON SUNDAY...THEN IT
WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT NWD TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CA
SUNDAY...THE MOVE RIGHT ACROSS CA MON AND LINGER THROUGH TUE. LOCAL
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PD...WITH SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
WARMING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS BY MON RISING
WELL INTO THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS EXPECTED FOR TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1100Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP ALL SITES AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE USUAL SITES
(KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF) THIS MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT EAST WINDS AT AIRFIELD THIS MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 6 KNOTS OR BELOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...03/245 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONE (PZZ676) EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BRING 10+
FOOT SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE
LIKELY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR
WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY FROM VENTURA TO
SANTA MONICA. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 031156
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO
STREAM INTO FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAKLY
OFFSHORE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WERE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN
THE MTNS AND LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WINDS WERE NOT VERY
SIGNIFICANT TO SAY THE LEAST. A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING
INTO THE WEST COAST LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THIS MAY CAUSE
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS...BUT STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS
TODAY SHOULD BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE WEAK TROUGH MAY BRING ENOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES TO MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. AFTER THE WEAK
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST OF THE REGION ON THU...AND BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. GRADIENTS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS THU MORNING IN
THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...
ACROSS THE VTU COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS
FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THU. RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND
WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TO
MOST AREAS ON THU...WITH TEMPS UP TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH CA THU NIGHT AND TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING. OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING...AND AN AREA OF MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
WAVE. EXPECT MORE SIGNIFICANT NE WINDS ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES
FRI MORNING...AND WINDS ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN MANY
AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES...ESPECIALLY W
OF THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP
ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO BAJA ON
SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE
BAY AREA. THIS WILL SET UP A N TO NELY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE
FCST AREA. AT THE SFC...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY
OFFSHORE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES SAT MORNING. MAX TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD CONT TO
MOVE UPWARD...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN THE
WARMEST PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER VALLEYS. AN UPPER
HIGH WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OFF OF PT CONCEPTION ON SUNDAY...THEN IT
WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT NWD TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CA
SUNDAY...THE MOVE RIGHT ACROSS CA MON AND LINGER THROUGH TUE. LOCAL
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PD...WITH SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
WARMING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS BY MON RISING
WELL INTO THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS EXPECTED FOR TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1100Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP ALL SITES AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE USUAL SITES
(KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF) THIS MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT EAST WINDS AT AIRFIELD THIS MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 6 KNOTS OR BELOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...03/245 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONE (PZZ676) EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BRING 10+
FOOT SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE
LIKELY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR
WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY FROM VENTURA TO
SANTA MONICA. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 031156
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO
STREAM INTO FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAKLY
OFFSHORE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WERE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN
THE MTNS AND LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WINDS WERE NOT VERY
SIGNIFICANT TO SAY THE LEAST. A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING
INTO THE WEST COAST LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THIS MAY CAUSE
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS...BUT STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS
TODAY SHOULD BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE WEAK TROUGH MAY BRING ENOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES TO MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. AFTER THE WEAK
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST OF THE REGION ON THU...AND BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. GRADIENTS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS THU MORNING IN
THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...
ACROSS THE VTU COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS
FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THU. RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND
WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TO
MOST AREAS ON THU...WITH TEMPS UP TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH CA THU NIGHT AND TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING. OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING...AND AN AREA OF MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
WAVE. EXPECT MORE SIGNIFICANT NE WINDS ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES
FRI MORNING...AND WINDS ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN MANY
AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES...ESPECIALLY W
OF THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP
ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO BAJA ON
SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE
BAY AREA. THIS WILL SET UP A N TO NELY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE
FCST AREA. AT THE SFC...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY
OFFSHORE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES SAT MORNING. MAX TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD CONT TO
MOVE UPWARD...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN THE
WARMEST PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER VALLEYS. AN UPPER
HIGH WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OFF OF PT CONCEPTION ON SUNDAY...THEN IT
WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT NWD TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CA
SUNDAY...THE MOVE RIGHT ACROSS CA MON AND LINGER THROUGH TUE. LOCAL
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PD...WITH SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
WARMING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS BY MON RISING
WELL INTO THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS EXPECTED FOR TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1100Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP ALL SITES AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE USUAL SITES
(KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF) THIS MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT EAST WINDS AT AIRFIELD THIS MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 6 KNOTS OR BELOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...03/245 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONE (PZZ676) EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BRING 10+
FOOT SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE
LIKELY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR
WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY FROM VENTURA TO
SANTA MONICA. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 031156
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO
STREAM INTO FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAKLY
OFFSHORE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WERE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN
THE MTNS AND LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WINDS WERE NOT VERY
SIGNIFICANT TO SAY THE LEAST. A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING
INTO THE WEST COAST LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THIS MAY CAUSE
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS...BUT STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS
TODAY SHOULD BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE WEAK TROUGH MAY BRING ENOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES TO MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. AFTER THE WEAK
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST OF THE REGION ON THU...AND BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. GRADIENTS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS THU MORNING IN
THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...
ACROSS THE VTU COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS
FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THU. RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND
WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TO
MOST AREAS ON THU...WITH TEMPS UP TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH CA THU NIGHT AND TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING. OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING...AND AN AREA OF MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
WAVE. EXPECT MORE SIGNIFICANT NE WINDS ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES
FRI MORNING...AND WINDS ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN MANY
AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES...ESPECIALLY W
OF THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP
ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO BAJA ON
SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE
BAY AREA. THIS WILL SET UP A N TO NELY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE
FCST AREA. AT THE SFC...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY
OFFSHORE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES SAT MORNING. MAX TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD CONT TO
MOVE UPWARD...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN THE
WARMEST PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER VALLEYS. AN UPPER
HIGH WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OFF OF PT CONCEPTION ON SUNDAY...THEN IT
WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT NWD TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CA
SUNDAY...THE MOVE RIGHT ACROSS CA MON AND LINGER THROUGH TUE. LOCAL
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PD...WITH SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
WARMING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS BY MON RISING
WELL INTO THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS EXPECTED FOR TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1100Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP ALL SITES AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE USUAL SITES
(KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF) THIS MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT EAST WINDS AT AIRFIELD THIS MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 6 KNOTS OR BELOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...03/245 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONE (PZZ676) EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BRING 10+
FOOT SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE
LIKELY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR
WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY FROM VENTURA TO
SANTA MONICA. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





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