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000
FXUS66 KLOX 230959
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST
AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE WERE ALSO
CLOUDS BANKED UP ON THE N MTN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SBA COUNTY S
COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY OF THE VLYS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR...THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU MON THEN BUILD
SLOWLY E INTO THE CA COAST FOR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING GUSTY
NE SANTA ANA WINDS TO SWRN CA. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF VTU/L..A. COUNTIES SUN INTO MON
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND SAN FERNANDO VLY FOR SUN
INTO MON AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUN EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES FOR THE VTU COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WIND
ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX).

IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO (1040 MB) MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIND ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ALL THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BLOW ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WELL OFF THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING IN ALL AREAS
SUN THRU TUE. THE WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MOST OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXRFWLOX) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS OVER SWRN CA...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SUN TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MON...TEMPS WILL WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMEST CST AND VLYS...WHILE INTERIOR VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z...

AT 0525Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  AT KPRB
08Z-17Z THERE IS A THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS.  AT
KSBA THROUGH 14Z THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND AT KBUR AND KVNY THROUGH 20Z THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY N TO E
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY N TO E
WINDS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY NE WINDS
WITH A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY WEAKEN
SOME FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
OR MORE WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO SHORE BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND POINT
MUGU SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS AND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA
AND WESTWARD BEYOND ANACAPA ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TOMORROW. THE OFFSHORE WIND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REPEAT
MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
ENE AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS MAY SHIFT UP TO THE VENTURA
NEAR-SHORE WATERS. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 230959
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST
AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE WERE ALSO
CLOUDS BANKED UP ON THE N MTN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SBA COUNTY S
COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY OF THE VLYS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR...THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU MON THEN BUILD
SLOWLY E INTO THE CA COAST FOR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING GUSTY
NE SANTA ANA WINDS TO SWRN CA. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF VTU/L..A. COUNTIES SUN INTO MON
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND SAN FERNANDO VLY FOR SUN
INTO MON AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUN EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES FOR THE VTU COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WIND
ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX).

IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO (1040 MB) MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIND ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ALL THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BLOW ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WELL OFF THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING IN ALL AREAS
SUN THRU TUE. THE WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MOST OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXRFWLOX) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS OVER SWRN CA...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SUN TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MON...TEMPS WILL WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMEST CST AND VLYS...WHILE INTERIOR VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z...

AT 0525Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  AT KPRB
08Z-17Z THERE IS A THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS.  AT
KSBA THROUGH 14Z THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND AT KBUR AND KVNY THROUGH 20Z THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY N TO E
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY N TO E
WINDS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY NE WINDS
WITH A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY WEAKEN
SOME FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
OR MORE WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO SHORE BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND POINT
MUGU SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS AND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA
AND WESTWARD BEYOND ANACAPA ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TOMORROW. THE OFFSHORE WIND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REPEAT
MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
ENE AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS MAY SHIFT UP TO THE VENTURA
NEAR-SHORE WATERS. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 230603
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST
AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE WERE ALSO
CLOUDS BANKED UP ON THE N MTN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SBA COUNTY S
COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY OF THE VLYS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR...THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU MON THEN BUILD
SLOWLY E INTO THE CA COAST FOR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING GUSTY
NE SANTA ANA WINDS TO SWRN CA. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF VTU/L..A. COUNTIES SUN INTO MON
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND SAN FERNANDO VLY FOR SUN
INTO MON AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUN EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES FOR THE VTU COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WIND
ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX).

IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO (1040 MB) MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIND ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ALL THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BLOW ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WELL OFF THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING IN ALL AREAS
SUN THRU TUE. THE WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MOST OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXRFWLOX) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS OVER SWRN CA...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SUN TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MON...TEMPS WILL WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMEST CST AND VLYS...WHILE INTERIOR VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z...

AT 0525Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  AT KPRB
08Z-17Z THERE IS A THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS.  AT
KSBA THROUGH 14Z THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND AT KBUR AND KVNY THROUGH 12Z THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z NE TO E WINDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 12Z NE WINDS WITH A TWENTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY WEAKEN
SOME FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
OR MORE WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO SHORE BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND POINT
MUGU SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS AND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA
AND WESTWARD BEYOND ANACAPA ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TOMORROW. THE OFFSHORE WIND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REPEAT
MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
ENE AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS MAY SHIFT UP TO THE VENTURA
NEAR-SHORE WATERS. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 230603
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST
AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE WERE ALSO
CLOUDS BANKED UP ON THE N MTN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SBA COUNTY S
COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY OF THE VLYS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR...THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU MON THEN BUILD
SLOWLY E INTO THE CA COAST FOR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING GUSTY
NE SANTA ANA WINDS TO SWRN CA. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF VTU/L..A. COUNTIES SUN INTO MON
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND SAN FERNANDO VLY FOR SUN
INTO MON AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUN EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES FOR THE VTU COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WIND
ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX).

IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO (1040 MB) MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIND ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ALL THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BLOW ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WELL OFF THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING IN ALL AREAS
SUN THRU TUE. THE WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MOST OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXRFWLOX) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS OVER SWRN CA...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SUN TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MON...TEMPS WILL WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMEST CST AND VLYS...WHILE INTERIOR VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z...

AT 0525Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  AT KPRB
08Z-17Z THERE IS A THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS.  AT
KSBA THROUGH 14Z THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND AT KBUR AND KVNY THROUGH 12Z THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z NE TO E WINDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 12Z NE WINDS WITH A TWENTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY WEAKEN
SOME FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
OR MORE WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO SHORE BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND POINT
MUGU SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS AND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA
AND WESTWARD BEYOND ANACAPA ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TOMORROW. THE OFFSHORE WIND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REPEAT
MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
ENE AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS MAY SHIFT UP TO THE VENTURA
NEAR-SHORE WATERS. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 230510
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE WERE ALSO
CLOUDS BANKED UP ON THE N MTN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SBA COUNTY S
COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY OF THE VLYS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR...THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU MON THEN BUILD
SLOWLY E INTO THE CA COAST FOR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING GUSTY
NE SANTA ANA WINDS TO SWRN CA. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF VTU/L..A. COUNTIES SUN INTO MON
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND SAN FERNANDO VLY FOR SUN
INTO MON AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUN EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES FOR THE VTU COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WIND
ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX).

IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO (1040 MB) MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIND ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ALL THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BLOW ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WELL OFF THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING IN ALL AREAS
SUN THRU TUE. THE WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MOST OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXRFWLOX) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS OVER SWRN CA...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SUN TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MON...TEMPS WILL WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMEST CST AND VLYS...WHILE INTERIOR VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/0015Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SUN AT KSBA...KOXR...KLAX...KLGB...KBUR...KVNY...KWJF
ANF KPMD. FOR KPRB...THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z
TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. FOR KSBP AND KSMX...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THRU ABOUT 03Z-04Z...BUT THE TIMING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATING MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU SUN. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA FROM 02Z-13Z SUN DUE TO GUSTY N
CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. GUSTY N WINDS SHOULD AFFECT KBUR AND
ESPECIALLY KVNY LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TIMES AT KBUR. THERE WILL BE GUSTY W TO NW
WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING...THEN TURN NE ON SUN AND BECOME
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS IN BLOWING
DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING AT THESE AIRFIELDS AS
WELL.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU SUN EVENING. N TO NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM
ABOUT 05Z TO 20Z SUN.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU SUN AFTERNOON. N WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM ABOUT 14Z-21Z SUN...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY WEAKEN
SOME FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
OR MORE WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO SHORE BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND POINT
MUGU SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS AND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA
AND WESTWARD BEYOND ANACAPA ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TOMORROW. THE OFFSHORE WIND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REPEAT
MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
ENE AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS MAY SHIFT UP TO THE VENTURA
NEAR-SHORE WATERS. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 230510
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE WERE ALSO
CLOUDS BANKED UP ON THE N MTN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SBA COUNTY S
COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY OF THE VLYS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR...THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU MON THEN BUILD
SLOWLY E INTO THE CA COAST FOR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING GUSTY
NE SANTA ANA WINDS TO SWRN CA. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF VTU/L..A. COUNTIES SUN INTO MON
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND SAN FERNANDO VLY FOR SUN
INTO MON AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUN EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES FOR THE VTU COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WIND
ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX).

IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO (1040 MB) MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIND ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ALL THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BLOW ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WELL OFF THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING IN ALL AREAS
SUN THRU TUE. THE WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MOST OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXRFWLOX) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS OVER SWRN CA...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SUN TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MON...TEMPS WILL WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMEST CST AND VLYS...WHILE INTERIOR VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/0015Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SUN AT KSBA...KOXR...KLAX...KLGB...KBUR...KVNY...KWJF
ANF KPMD. FOR KPRB...THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z
TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. FOR KSBP AND KSMX...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THRU ABOUT 03Z-04Z...BUT THE TIMING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATING MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU SUN. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA FROM 02Z-13Z SUN DUE TO GUSTY N
CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. GUSTY N WINDS SHOULD AFFECT KBUR AND
ESPECIALLY KVNY LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TIMES AT KBUR. THERE WILL BE GUSTY W TO NW
WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING...THEN TURN NE ON SUN AND BECOME
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS IN BLOWING
DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING AT THESE AIRFIELDS AS
WELL.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU SUN EVENING. N TO NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM
ABOUT 05Z TO 20Z SUN.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU SUN AFTERNOON. N WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM ABOUT 14Z-21Z SUN...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY WEAKEN
SOME FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
OR MORE WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO SHORE BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND POINT
MUGU SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS AND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA
AND WESTWARD BEYOND ANACAPA ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TOMORROW. THE OFFSHORE WIND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REPEAT
MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
ENE AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS MAY SHIFT UP TO THE VENTURA
NEAR-SHORE WATERS. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 230031 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME CLOUDS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AND
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST AND
VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
THE FRONT WAS PRETTY MUCH A NO SHOW TODAY...IT BARELY EVEN MANAGED
TO PRODUCE ANY CLOUDS. TODAY TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO YDYS ACROSS VTA
AND LA COUNTIES BUT THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF WARMING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST. EVERYTHING NOW IS ABOUT THE WINDS. CURRENT PRESSURE
GRADS ARE RUNNING W TO E AND THE ANTELOPE VLY IS SEEING ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ALONG SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. THIS EVENING THE
GRADIENTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS TO THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...THE LA AND VTA MTNS (ESP THE I0-5 CORRIDOR)...THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS...AND THE VLYS ABOUT 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE LA/VTA
COUNTY LINE. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO PILE UP A BUNCH OF CLOUDS
ALONG NORTH SLOPES OF THE LA/VTA MTNS AS WELL AS THE CUYAMA VLY.
THE UPSLOPE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWERS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING

ON SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND SETS UP A NORTHEAST
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE IS NOT THAT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. THE WINDS
ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL SHUT OFF. BUT ALL OF THE NE ORIENTED
PASSES AND CANYONS WILL LIGHT UP WITH LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS.
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BUT
THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER. THE WINDS WILL LULL IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN REACHES ITS DIURNAL MINIMUM. THE COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL DECREASE THE MAX TEMPS SUNDAY IN HE INTERIOR BUT THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS FROM TODAYS VALUES ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS.

CLEAR SKIES DRY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS. WINDIER AREAS WILL HAVE WARMER THAN NORMAL
LOWS AS THE BREEZES KEEP THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED UP.
THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE ANTELOPE
VLY WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE SFC GRADIENTS WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE OVERKILL. THERE IS NO UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT EITHER SO
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO TAKE A HARD LOOK AT THESE WINDS. VERY LOW
END ADVISORIES AT WORST. OTHERWISE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. HGTS RISE TO 583 DM AND OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. MAX TEMPS
WILL JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTS
AND VLYS.

MDLS SHOWING A PRETTY STRONG EAST WIND EVENT FOR TUESDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO NEVADA. WINDS THROUGH 700 MB TURN EASTERLY
AS WELL. ITS STILL EARLY BUT THIS COULD BE A DECENT EVENT. AVALON
HARBOR RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP AN EAR TURNED TO THE WEATHER NEWS. IF
THE NAM IS CORRECT THE AREAS PRONE TO EAST WINDS WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK. STILL THE NAM LIKES TO OVER DO WIND
SPEEDS SO ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK FCST. IT WILL BE SUNNY AND PLENTY WARM
WITH AS WIDE SWATH OF MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/0015Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SUN AT KSBA...KOXR...KLAX...KLGB...KBUR...KVNY...KWJF
ANF KPMD. FOR KPRB...THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z
TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. FOR KSBP AND KSMX...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THRU ABOUT 03Z-04Z...BUT THE TIMING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATING MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU SUN. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA FROM 02Z-13Z SUN DUE TO GUSTY N
CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. GUSTY N WINDS SHOULD AFFECT KBUR AND
ESPECIALLY KVNY LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TIMES AT KBUR. THERE WILL BE GUSTY W TO NW
WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING...THEN TURN NE ON SUN AND BECOME
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS IN BLOWING
DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING AT THESE AIRFIELDS AS
WELL.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU SUN EVENING. N TO NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM
ABOUT 05Z TO 20Z SUN.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU SUN AFTERNOON. N WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM ABOUT 14Z-21Z SUN...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...22/200 PM PST...

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL BUT THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IT IS LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND
OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL
ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 230031 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME CLOUDS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AND
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST AND
VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
THE FRONT WAS PRETTY MUCH A NO SHOW TODAY...IT BARELY EVEN MANAGED
TO PRODUCE ANY CLOUDS. TODAY TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO YDYS ACROSS VTA
AND LA COUNTIES BUT THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF WARMING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST. EVERYTHING NOW IS ABOUT THE WINDS. CURRENT PRESSURE
GRADS ARE RUNNING W TO E AND THE ANTELOPE VLY IS SEEING ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ALONG SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. THIS EVENING THE
GRADIENTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS TO THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...THE LA AND VTA MTNS (ESP THE I0-5 CORRIDOR)...THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS...AND THE VLYS ABOUT 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE LA/VTA
COUNTY LINE. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO PILE UP A BUNCH OF CLOUDS
ALONG NORTH SLOPES OF THE LA/VTA MTNS AS WELL AS THE CUYAMA VLY.
THE UPSLOPE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWERS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING

ON SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND SETS UP A NORTHEAST
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE IS NOT THAT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. THE WINDS
ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL SHUT OFF. BUT ALL OF THE NE ORIENTED
PASSES AND CANYONS WILL LIGHT UP WITH LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS.
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BUT
THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER. THE WINDS WILL LULL IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN REACHES ITS DIURNAL MINIMUM. THE COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL DECREASE THE MAX TEMPS SUNDAY IN HE INTERIOR BUT THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS FROM TODAYS VALUES ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS.

CLEAR SKIES DRY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS. WINDIER AREAS WILL HAVE WARMER THAN NORMAL
LOWS AS THE BREEZES KEEP THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED UP.
THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE ANTELOPE
VLY WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE SFC GRADIENTS WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE OVERKILL. THERE IS NO UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT EITHER SO
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO TAKE A HARD LOOK AT THESE WINDS. VERY LOW
END ADVISORIES AT WORST. OTHERWISE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. HGTS RISE TO 583 DM AND OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. MAX TEMPS
WILL JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTS
AND VLYS.

MDLS SHOWING A PRETTY STRONG EAST WIND EVENT FOR TUESDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO NEVADA. WINDS THROUGH 700 MB TURN EASTERLY
AS WELL. ITS STILL EARLY BUT THIS COULD BE A DECENT EVENT. AVALON
HARBOR RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP AN EAR TURNED TO THE WEATHER NEWS. IF
THE NAM IS CORRECT THE AREAS PRONE TO EAST WINDS WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK. STILL THE NAM LIKES TO OVER DO WIND
SPEEDS SO ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK FCST. IT WILL BE SUNNY AND PLENTY WARM
WITH AS WIDE SWATH OF MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/0015Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SUN AT KSBA...KOXR...KLAX...KLGB...KBUR...KVNY...KWJF
ANF KPMD. FOR KPRB...THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z
TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. FOR KSBP AND KSMX...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THRU ABOUT 03Z-04Z...BUT THE TIMING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATING MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU SUN. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA FROM 02Z-13Z SUN DUE TO GUSTY N
CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. GUSTY N WINDS SHOULD AFFECT KBUR AND
ESPECIALLY KVNY LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TIMES AT KBUR. THERE WILL BE GUSTY W TO NW
WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING...THEN TURN NE ON SUN AND BECOME
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS IN BLOWING
DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING AT THESE AIRFIELDS AS
WELL.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU SUN EVENING. N TO NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM
ABOUT 05Z TO 20Z SUN.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU SUN AFTERNOON. N WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM ABOUT 14Z-21Z SUN...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...22/200 PM PST...

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL BUT THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IT IS LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND
OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL
ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 222233
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME CLOUDS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AND
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST AND
VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
THE FRONT WAS PRETTY MUCH A NO SHOW TODAY...IT BARELY EVEN MANAGED
TO PRODUCE ANY CLOUDS. TODAY TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO YDYS ACROSS VTA
AND LA COUNTIES BUT THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF WARMING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST. EVERYTHING NOW IS ABOUT THE WINDS. CURRENT PRESSURE
GRADS ARE RUNNING W TO E AND THE ANTELOPE VLY IS SEEING ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ALONG SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. THIS EVENING THE
GRADIENTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS TO THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...THE LA AND VTA MTNS (ESP THE I0-5 CORRIDOR)...THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS...AND THE VLYS ABOUT 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE LA/VTA
COUNTY LINE. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO PILE UP A BUNCH OF CLOUDS
ALONG NORTH SLOPES OF THE LA/VTA MTNS AS WELL AS THE CUYAMA VLY.
THE UPSLOPE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWERS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING

ON SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND SETS UP A NORTHEAST
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE IS NOT THAT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. THE WINDS
ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL SHUT OFF. BUT ALL OF THE NE ORIENTED
PASSES AND CANYONS WILL LIGHT UP WITH LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS.
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BUT
THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER. THE WINDS WILL LULL IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN REACHES ITS DIURNAL MINIMUM. THE COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL DECREASE THE MAX TEMPS SUNDAY IN HE INTERIOR BUT THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS FROM TODAYS VALUES ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS.

CLEAR SKIES DRY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS. WINDIER AREAS WILL HAVE WARMER THAN NORMAL
LOWS AS THE BREEZES KEEP THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED UP.
THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE ANTELOPE
VLY WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE SFC GRADIENTS WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE OVERKILL. THERE IS NO UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT EITHER SO
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO TAKE A HARD LOOK AT THESE WINDS. VERY LOW
END ADVISORIES AT WORST. OTHERWISE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. HGTS RISE TO 583 DM AND OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. MAX TEMPS
WILL JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTS
AND VLYS.

MDLS SHOWING A PRETTY STRONG EAST WIND EVENT FOR TUESDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO NEVADA. WINDS THROUGH 700 MB TURN EASTERLY
AS WELL. ITS STILL EARLY BUT THIS COULD BE A DECENT EVENT. AVALON
HARBOR RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP AN EAR TURNED TO THE WEATHER NEWS. IF
THE NAM IS CORRECT THE AREAS PRONE TO EAST WINDS WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK. STILL THE NAM LIKES TO OVER DO WIND
SPEEDS SO ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK FCST. IT WILL BE SUNNY AND PLENTY WARM
WITH AS WIDE SWATH OF MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1800Z.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA
AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL BUILD NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
NORTHWEST AFTER 23/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 23/01Z THEN MODERATE NORTHERLY BETWEEN
23/01-23/13Z BECOME MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 23/13Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL NORTH WINDS 10KT OR LESS LIKELY BETWEEN 23/03-23/11Z AND
NORTHEAST 10KT OR LESS BETWEEN 23/11-23/22Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...22/200 PM PST...

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL BUT THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IT IS LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND
OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL
ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 222233
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME CLOUDS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AND
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST AND
VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
THE FRONT WAS PRETTY MUCH A NO SHOW TODAY...IT BARELY EVEN MANAGED
TO PRODUCE ANY CLOUDS. TODAY TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO YDYS ACROSS VTA
AND LA COUNTIES BUT THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF WARMING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST. EVERYTHING NOW IS ABOUT THE WINDS. CURRENT PRESSURE
GRADS ARE RUNNING W TO E AND THE ANTELOPE VLY IS SEEING ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ALONG SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. THIS EVENING THE
GRADIENTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS TO THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...THE LA AND VTA MTNS (ESP THE I0-5 CORRIDOR)...THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS...AND THE VLYS ABOUT 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE LA/VTA
COUNTY LINE. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO PILE UP A BUNCH OF CLOUDS
ALONG NORTH SLOPES OF THE LA/VTA MTNS AS WELL AS THE CUYAMA VLY.
THE UPSLOPE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWERS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING

ON SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND SETS UP A NORTHEAST
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE IS NOT THAT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. THE WINDS
ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL SHUT OFF. BUT ALL OF THE NE ORIENTED
PASSES AND CANYONS WILL LIGHT UP WITH LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS.
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BUT
THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER. THE WINDS WILL LULL IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN REACHES ITS DIURNAL MINIMUM. THE COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL DECREASE THE MAX TEMPS SUNDAY IN HE INTERIOR BUT THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS FROM TODAYS VALUES ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS.

CLEAR SKIES DRY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS. WINDIER AREAS WILL HAVE WARMER THAN NORMAL
LOWS AS THE BREEZES KEEP THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED UP.
THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE ANTELOPE
VLY WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE SFC GRADIENTS WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE OVERKILL. THERE IS NO UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT EITHER SO
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO TAKE A HARD LOOK AT THESE WINDS. VERY LOW
END ADVISORIES AT WORST. OTHERWISE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. HGTS RISE TO 583 DM AND OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. MAX TEMPS
WILL JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTS
AND VLYS.

MDLS SHOWING A PRETTY STRONG EAST WIND EVENT FOR TUESDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO NEVADA. WINDS THROUGH 700 MB TURN EASTERLY
AS WELL. ITS STILL EARLY BUT THIS COULD BE A DECENT EVENT. AVALON
HARBOR RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP AN EAR TURNED TO THE WEATHER NEWS. IF
THE NAM IS CORRECT THE AREAS PRONE TO EAST WINDS WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK. STILL THE NAM LIKES TO OVER DO WIND
SPEEDS SO ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK FCST. IT WILL BE SUNNY AND PLENTY WARM
WITH AS WIDE SWATH OF MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1800Z.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA
AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL BUILD NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
NORTHWEST AFTER 23/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 23/01Z THEN MODERATE NORTHERLY BETWEEN
23/01-23/13Z BECOME MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 23/13Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL NORTH WINDS 10KT OR LESS LIKELY BETWEEN 23/03-23/11Z AND
NORTHEAST 10KT OR LESS BETWEEN 23/11-23/22Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...22/200 PM PST...

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL BUT THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IT IS LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND
OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL
ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 221805
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1004 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
SAGGY BAGGY FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG I-80 WITH STEADY LIGHT RAIN
FALLING FROM THE BAY AREA TO MONTERREY AND POINTS EAST. FRONT WILL
BE LUCKY TO HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA WITH SLO
COUNTY HAVING THE BEST SHOT. RAINFALL AMOUNT IFS ANY WILL BE JUST A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. THE NORTH SLOPES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP TONIGHT AS NORTH FLOW ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SAN JOAQUIN VLY STILL NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.

SKIES ARE PRETTY SUNNY NOW BUT THE CENTRAL COAST WILL CLOUD UP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. VTA AND LA COUNTY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE UNREMARKABLE TODAY WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

THEN ITS ALL ABOUT THE WINDS. A DECENT W TO E GRADIENT WILL BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO ANTELOPE VLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
AND SAND. THIS EVENING A STRONG SFC HIGH MOVES INTO NRN CA AND SETS
UP A N TO S PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS TO SANTA SOUTH COAST
THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THE SANTA MONICA MTNS AS WELL AS THE VLYS TO THE
EAST AND WEST OF THE LA/VTA COUNTY LINE. LATER SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH
SHIFTS INTO NEVADA AND THE NORTH WIND EVENT WILL TURN TO THE NE. THE
WINDS LOOK A LITTLE WEAKER FOR THESE NE WINDS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S. ONE ISSUE OF
CONCERN WILL BE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE
ADVERTISES PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE WINDS...ONLY WIND PROTECTED AREAS
WILL DROP THAT LOW. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS TO DECIDE IF
A FREEZE OR HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NEEDED.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1800Z.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA
AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL BUILD NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
NORTHWEST AFTER 23/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 23/01Z THEN MODERATE NORTHERLY BETWEEN
23/01-23/13Z BECOME MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 23/13Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL NORTH WINDS 10KT OR LESS LIKELY BETWEEN 23/03-23/11Z AND
NORTHEAST 10KT OR LESS BETWEEN 23/11-23/22Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...

22/900 AM PST...

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL BUT THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IT IS LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND
OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL
ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...30
FIRE...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




















000
FXUS66 KLOX 221705
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
SAGGY BAGGY FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG I-80 WITH STEADY LIGHT RAIN
FALLING FROM THE BAY AREA TO MONTERREY AND POINTS EAST. FRONT WILL
BE LUCKY TO HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA WITH SLO
COUNTY HAVING THE BEST SHOT. RAINFALL AMOUNT IFS ANY WILL BE JUST A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. THE NORTH SLOPES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP TONIGHT AS NORTH FLOW ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SAN JOAQUIN VLY STILL NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.

SKIES ARE PRETTY SUNNY NOW BUT THE CENTRAL COAST WILL CLOUD UP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. VTA AND LA COUNTY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE UNREMARKABLE TODAY WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

THEN ITS ALL ABOUT THE WINDS. A DECENT W TO E GRADIENT WILL BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO ANTELOPE VLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
AND SAND. THIS EVENING A STRONG SFC HIGH MOVES INTO NRN CA AND SETS
UP A N TO S PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS TO SANTA SOUTH COAST
THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THE SANTA MONICA MTNS AS WELL AS THE VLYS TO THE
EAST AND WEST OF THE LA/VTA COUNTY LINE. LATER SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH
SHIFTS INTO NEVADA AND THE NORTH WIND EVENT WILL TURN TO THE NE. THE
WINDS LOOK A LITTLE WEAKER FOR THESE NE WINDS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S. ONE ISSUE OF
CONCERN WILL BE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE
ADVERTISES PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE WINDS...ONLY WIND PROTECTED AREAS
WILL DROP THAT LOW. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS TO DECIDE IF
A FREEZE OR HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NEEDED.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 10Z THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDS ALL AREA. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN VFR.

GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SRN SBA COUNTY AND THE I5 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME LLWS/MDT UDDF. N WINDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE SANTA CLARITA/SAN FERNANDO VLYS TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...

22/900 AM PST...

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL BUT THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IT IS LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND
OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL
ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
FIRE...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 221705
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
SAGGY BAGGY FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG I-80 WITH STEADY LIGHT RAIN
FALLING FROM THE BAY AREA TO MONTERREY AND POINTS EAST. FRONT WILL
BE LUCKY TO HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA WITH SLO
COUNTY HAVING THE BEST SHOT. RAINFALL AMOUNT IFS ANY WILL BE JUST A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. THE NORTH SLOPES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP TONIGHT AS NORTH FLOW ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SAN JOAQUIN VLY STILL NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.

SKIES ARE PRETTY SUNNY NOW BUT THE CENTRAL COAST WILL CLOUD UP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. VTA AND LA COUNTY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE UNREMARKABLE TODAY WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

THEN ITS ALL ABOUT THE WINDS. A DECENT W TO E GRADIENT WILL BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO ANTELOPE VLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
AND SAND. THIS EVENING A STRONG SFC HIGH MOVES INTO NRN CA AND SETS
UP A N TO S PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS TO SANTA SOUTH COAST
THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THE SANTA MONICA MTNS AS WELL AS THE VLYS TO THE
EAST AND WEST OF THE LA/VTA COUNTY LINE. LATER SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH
SHIFTS INTO NEVADA AND THE NORTH WIND EVENT WILL TURN TO THE NE. THE
WINDS LOOK A LITTLE WEAKER FOR THESE NE WINDS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S. ONE ISSUE OF
CONCERN WILL BE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE
ADVERTISES PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE WINDS...ONLY WIND PROTECTED AREAS
WILL DROP THAT LOW. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS TO DECIDE IF
A FREEZE OR HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NEEDED.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 10Z THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDS ALL AREA. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN VFR.

GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SRN SBA COUNTY AND THE I5 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME LLWS/MDT UDDF. N WINDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE SANTA CLARITA/SAN FERNANDO VLYS TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...

22/900 AM PST...

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL BUT THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IT IS LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND
OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL
ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
FIRE...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

















000
FXUS66 KLOX 221253
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S. ONE ISSUE OF
CONCERN WILL BE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE
ADVERTISES PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE WINDS...ONLY WIND PROTECTED AREAS
WILL DROP THAT LOW. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS TO DECIDE IF
A FREEZE OR HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NEEDED.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 10Z THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDS ALL AREA. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN VFR.

GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SRN SBA COUNTY AND THE I5 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME LLWS/MDT UDDF. N WINDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE SANTA CLARITA/SAN FERNANDO VLYS TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
FIRE...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 221253
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S. ONE ISSUE OF
CONCERN WILL BE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE
ADVERTISES PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE WINDS...ONLY WIND PROTECTED AREAS
WILL DROP THAT LOW. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS TO DECIDE IF
A FREEZE OR HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NEEDED.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 10Z THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDS ALL AREA. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN VFR.

GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SRN SBA COUNTY AND THE I5 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME LLWS/MDT UDDF. N WINDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE SANTA CLARITA/SAN FERNANDO VLYS TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
FIRE...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 221139
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 10Z THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDS ALL AREA. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN VFR.

GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SRN SBA COUNTY AND THE I5 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME LLWS/MDT UDDF. N WINDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE SANTA CLARITA/SAN FERNANDO VLYS TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 221139
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 10Z THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDS ALL AREA. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN VFR.

GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SRN SBA COUNTY AND THE I5 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME LLWS/MDT UDDF. N WINDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE SANTA CLARITA/SAN FERNANDO VLYS TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 221135
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN B
VFR. GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY AND THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
LLWS AND MDT UDDF. SOME GUSTY N WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. THERE IS A
CHANCE SOME NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 221135
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN B
VFR. GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY AND THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
LLWS AND MDT UDDF. SOME GUSTY N WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. THERE IS A
CHANCE SOME NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 221128
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 221128
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 220516
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HI CLOUDS
AT TIMES COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WERE
CLOUDS BANKED UPON THE N SLOPES THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO AN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA. CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO THICKEN OVER THE REST OF SLO COUNTY AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHERN SBA
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA.
FURTHER S...IT LOOKS LIKE FAIR SKIES WITH SOME HI CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT. THERE WERE GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS NOTED
ACROSS THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND SBA COUNTY S COAST THIS EVENING
THANKS TO A STRONG NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT (AT 03Z -4.0 MB
SBA-SMX AND -5.5 MB SBA-BFL). GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED
ALREADY...AND THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED AREAS. AS A RESULT...A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTY W TO
N WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE L.A./VTU MTNS AND PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE
VLY OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER SWRN CA TONIGHT THRU SAT.
UPPER RIDGING WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THEN
BUILD BACK TOWARD THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES SAT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE N MTN SLOPES FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PCPN. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE L.A./VTU MTNS AT TIMES SAT THRU
SUN MORNING...AND SPREAD INTO THE ANTELOPE VLY. WIND GUSTS TO
WARNING LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A HIGH WAND WATCH
WAS ISSUED...AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ANTELOPE
VLY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND
GUSTY N WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT FOR THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND S
COAST...WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXNPWLOX) FOR DETAILS ON
THE WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WATCHES. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE NORTHEAST BY LATER SUN MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU
MON...WITH GUSTY WINDS BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS
LIKELY TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN MANY AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND THE N MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY
SAT INTO SAT EVENING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUN THANKS TO
THE DRYING OFFSHORE FLOW. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN CONTINUE THRU
MON IN ALL AREAS. TEMPS ON SAT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
THEN TURN MILDER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL MAINLY W OF THE MTNS ON
SUN...AND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MON...WHILE TEMPS
CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MTNS AND
DESERTS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0000.

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE AIRFIELDS THRU SAT. FOR KPRB...THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS 10Z-16Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY HI
CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SAT. FOR KSBP AND
KSMX...THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFT 23Z SAT. THERE IS...HOWEVER...A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT THESE AIRFIELDS FROM ABOUT 14Z-20Z SAT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA THRU 12Z SAT DUE TO GUSTY N
CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS AT
KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING THRU THE
AFTERNOON.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT EVENING. LIGHT N TO E FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT AFTERNOON. N WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE AIRFIELD 16Z-22Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...21/800 PM PST...
IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE SAT
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/BOLDT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 220516
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HI CLOUDS
AT TIMES COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WERE
CLOUDS BANKED UPON THE N SLOPES THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO AN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA. CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO THICKEN OVER THE REST OF SLO COUNTY AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHERN SBA
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA.
FURTHER S...IT LOOKS LIKE FAIR SKIES WITH SOME HI CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT. THERE WERE GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS NOTED
ACROSS THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND SBA COUNTY S COAST THIS EVENING
THANKS TO A STRONG NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT (AT 03Z -4.0 MB
SBA-SMX AND -5.5 MB SBA-BFL). GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED
ALREADY...AND THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED AREAS. AS A RESULT...A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTY W TO
N WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE L.A./VTU MTNS AND PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE
VLY OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER SWRN CA TONIGHT THRU SAT.
UPPER RIDGING WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THEN
BUILD BACK TOWARD THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES SAT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE N MTN SLOPES FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PCPN. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE L.A./VTU MTNS AT TIMES SAT THRU
SUN MORNING...AND SPREAD INTO THE ANTELOPE VLY. WIND GUSTS TO
WARNING LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A HIGH WAND WATCH
WAS ISSUED...AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ANTELOPE
VLY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND
GUSTY N WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT FOR THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND S
COAST...WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXNPWLOX) FOR DETAILS ON
THE WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WATCHES. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE NORTHEAST BY LATER SUN MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU
MON...WITH GUSTY WINDS BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS
LIKELY TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN MANY AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND THE N MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY
SAT INTO SAT EVENING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUN THANKS TO
THE DRYING OFFSHORE FLOW. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN CONTINUE THRU
MON IN ALL AREAS. TEMPS ON SAT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
THEN TURN MILDER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL MAINLY W OF THE MTNS ON
SUN...AND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MON...WHILE TEMPS
CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MTNS AND
DESERTS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0000.

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE AIRFIELDS THRU SAT. FOR KPRB...THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS 10Z-16Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY HI
CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SAT. FOR KSBP AND
KSMX...THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFT 23Z SAT. THERE IS...HOWEVER...A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT THESE AIRFIELDS FROM ABOUT 14Z-20Z SAT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA THRU 12Z SAT DUE TO GUSTY N
CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS AT
KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING THRU THE
AFTERNOON.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT EVENING. LIGHT N TO E FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT AFTERNOON. N WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE AIRFIELD 16Z-22Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...21/800 PM PST...
IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE SAT
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/BOLDT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 220016 AAB
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
415 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST
CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE BEING THE REMNANT
MOISTURE PILING UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT
BUT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BRINGING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO OUR REGION. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND A STRONG JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM DROPS THIS DIRECTION. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASED UPPER WINDS SPELLS POTENTIALLY STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO FAVORS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...SO EXPECT STRONG NORTH WINDS
THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD
WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AND PUT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
IN A STRONG WIND ADVISORY. CAN ALSO SEE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO CLARIFY FOR THESE AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDY AREAS...THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

WINDS ACROSS ALL AREAS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WE SHOULD START TO SEE WINDS
TURN FIRST FROM SANTA BARBARA TO MONTECITO BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN IN THE TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA CORRIDORS OF VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY IN THESE AREAS DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANAS. HUMIDITY
STARTS TO DROP SUNDAY AND MAY BECOME MORE CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...THEN
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES
AT THE BEACHES OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0000.

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE AIRFIELDS THRU SAT. FOR KPRB...THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS 10Z-16Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY HI
CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SAT. FOR KSBP AND
KSMX...THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFT 23Z SAT. THERE IS...HOWEVER...A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT THESE AIRFIELDS FROM ABOUT 14Z-20Z SAT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA THRU 12Z SAT DUE TO GUSTY N
CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS AT
KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING THRU THE
AFTERNOON.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT EVENING. LIGHT N TO E FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT AFTERNOON. N WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE AIRFIELD 16Z-22Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM PST...
IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 220016 AAB
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
415 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST
CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE BEING THE REMNANT
MOISTURE PILING UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT
BUT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BRINGING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO OUR REGION. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND A STRONG JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM DROPS THIS DIRECTION. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASED UPPER WINDS SPELLS POTENTIALLY STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO FAVORS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...SO EXPECT STRONG NORTH WINDS
THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD
WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AND PUT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
IN A STRONG WIND ADVISORY. CAN ALSO SEE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO CLARIFY FOR THESE AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDY AREAS...THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

WINDS ACROSS ALL AREAS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WE SHOULD START TO SEE WINDS
TURN FIRST FROM SANTA BARBARA TO MONTECITO BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN IN THE TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA CORRIDORS OF VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY IN THESE AREAS DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANAS. HUMIDITY
STARTS TO DROP SUNDAY AND MAY BECOME MORE CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...THEN
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES
AT THE BEACHES OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0000.

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE AIRFIELDS THRU SAT. FOR KPRB...THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS 10Z-16Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY HI
CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SAT. FOR KSBP AND
KSMX...THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFT 23Z SAT. THERE IS...HOWEVER...A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT THESE AIRFIELDS FROM ABOUT 14Z-20Z SAT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA THRU 12Z SAT DUE TO GUSTY N
CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS AT
KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING THRU THE
AFTERNOON.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT EVENING. LIGHT N TO E FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT AFTERNOON. N WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE AIRFIELD 16Z-22Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM PST...
IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 212327
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

ADDED FIRE WEATHER SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST
CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE BEING THE REMNANT
MOISTURE PILING UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT
BUT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BRINGING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO OUR REGION. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND A STRONG JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM DROPS THIS DIRECTION. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASED UPPER WINDS SPELLS POTENTIALLY STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO FAVORS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...SO EXPECT STRONG NORTH WINDS
THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD
WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AND PUT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
IN A STRONG WIND ADVISORY. CAN ALSO SEE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO CLARIFY FOR THESE AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDY AREAS...THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

WINDS ACROSS ALL AREAS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WE SHOULD START TO SEE WINDS
TURN FIRST FROM SANTA BARBARA TO MONTECITO BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN IN THE TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA CORRIDORS OF VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY IN THESE AREAS DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANAS. HUMIDITY
STARTS TO DROP SUNDAY AND MAY BECOME MORE CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...THEN
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES
AT THE BEACHES OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 22/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 22/17Z
THEN MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM PST...
IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...30
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 212327
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

ADDED FIRE WEATHER SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST
CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE BEING THE REMNANT
MOISTURE PILING UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT
BUT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BRINGING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO OUR REGION. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND A STRONG JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM DROPS THIS DIRECTION. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASED UPPER WINDS SPELLS POTENTIALLY STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO FAVORS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...SO EXPECT STRONG NORTH WINDS
THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD
WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AND PUT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
IN A STRONG WIND ADVISORY. CAN ALSO SEE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO CLARIFY FOR THESE AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDY AREAS...THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

WINDS ACROSS ALL AREAS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WE SHOULD START TO SEE WINDS
TURN FIRST FROM SANTA BARBARA TO MONTECITO BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN IN THE TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA CORRIDORS OF VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY IN THESE AREAS DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANAS. HUMIDITY
STARTS TO DROP SUNDAY AND MAY BECOME MORE CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...THEN
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES
AT THE BEACHES OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 22/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 22/17Z
THEN MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM PST...
IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...30
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 212221
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST
CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE BEING THE REMNANT
MOISTURE PILING UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT
BUT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BRINGING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO OUR REGION. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND A STRONG JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM DROPS THIS DIRECTION. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASED UPPER WINDS SPELLS POTENTIALLY STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO FAVORS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...SO EXPECT STRONG NORTH WINDS
THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD
WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AND PUT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
IN A STRONG WIND ADVISORY. CAN ALSO SEE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO CLARIFY FOR THESE AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDY AREAS...THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

WINDS ACROSS ALL AREAS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WE SHOULD START TO SEE WINDS
TURN FIRST FROM SANTA BARBARA TO MONTECITO BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN IN THE TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA CORRIDORS OF VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY IN THESE AREAS DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANAS. HUMIDITY
STARTS TO DROP SUNDAY AND MAY BECOME MORE CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...THEN
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES
AT THE BEACHES OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 22/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 22/17Z
THEN MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM PST...

IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 212221
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST
CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE BEING THE REMNANT
MOISTURE PILING UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT
BUT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BRINGING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO OUR REGION. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND A STRONG JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM DROPS THIS DIRECTION. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASED UPPER WINDS SPELLS POTENTIALLY STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO FAVORS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...SO EXPECT STRONG NORTH WINDS
THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD
WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AND PUT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
IN A STRONG WIND ADVISORY. CAN ALSO SEE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO CLARIFY FOR THESE AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDY AREAS...THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

WINDS ACROSS ALL AREAS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WE SHOULD START TO SEE WINDS
TURN FIRST FROM SANTA BARBARA TO MONTECITO BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN IN THE TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA CORRIDORS OF VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY IN THESE AREAS DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANAS. HUMIDITY
STARTS TO DROP SUNDAY AND MAY BECOME MORE CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...THEN
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES
AT THE BEACHES OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 22/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 22/17Z
THEN MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM PST...

IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 211752
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING AN OFFSHORE
FLOW PATTERN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...MANY FIREWORKS AROUND THE COLBY FIRE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT
WITH 40+ LIGHTNING FLASHES EITHER IN-CLOUD OR CLOUD-TO-GROUND AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...CAUSING SEDIMENT FLOWS AND A BUILD-UP OF MUD
BELOW SAN GABRIEL DAM. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT TRACKED MUCH
CLOSER TO LOS ANGELES COUNTY THAN MODELS INDICATED AND STORMS POPPED
UP DIRECTLY UNDER THE COLD POOL. ONE GAUGE ABOVE THE COLBY FIRE HAD
0.19 INCH IN 3 MINUTES.

THE LOW HAS MOVED TO SOUTHEAST CA EARLY THIS MORNING AND SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT EXCEPT FOR MOISTURE STACKING UP ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST LOS ANGELES TO EASTERN SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTIES. EXPECT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO STRATOCUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 25-35
MPH ARE REPORTED THROUGH CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND
30-40 MPH THROUGH THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR DOWN TO THE SANTA MONICAS BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH
COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY BUT WARMER IN MOST COASTAL AREAS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS ENTERING THE PACNW THIS MORNING AND WILL
BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CA TONIGHT. STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHER IMPACT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS...TURNING NORTHEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. MANY WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AND WILL LOOK AT HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...

THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND SETS UP A
SANTA ANA WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER DETAILS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKES
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS...COLD NIGHTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZE WARNING BEING
ISSUED.

THE SANTA ANA PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1310Z.

AT 12Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION AROUND KLAX AT 13Z THIS MORNING.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LIFR CONDS WILL OCCUR AROUND KPRB
THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED MVFR TO VFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST
INTERIOR LOCATIONS N OF POINT CONCEPTION. MOST AREAS SHOULD BECOME
VFR AFTER 16 TO 18Z TODAY.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN EASTERN LA COUNTY FOOTHILLS...AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS BANKING
UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN SLOPES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LA/VTU
COUNTIES. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z.

KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

MARINE...21/900 AM PST...

IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT/HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 211752
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING AN OFFSHORE
FLOW PATTERN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...MANY FIREWORKS AROUND THE COLBY FIRE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT
WITH 40+ LIGHTNING FLASHES EITHER IN-CLOUD OR CLOUD-TO-GROUND AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...CAUSING SEDIMENT FLOWS AND A BUILD-UP OF MUD
BELOW SAN GABRIEL DAM. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT TRACKED MUCH
CLOSER TO LOS ANGELES COUNTY THAN MODELS INDICATED AND STORMS POPPED
UP DIRECTLY UNDER THE COLD POOL. ONE GAUGE ABOVE THE COLBY FIRE HAD
0.19 INCH IN 3 MINUTES.

THE LOW HAS MOVED TO SOUTHEAST CA EARLY THIS MORNING AND SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT EXCEPT FOR MOISTURE STACKING UP ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST LOS ANGELES TO EASTERN SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTIES. EXPECT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO STRATOCUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 25-35
MPH ARE REPORTED THROUGH CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND
30-40 MPH THROUGH THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR DOWN TO THE SANTA MONICAS BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH
COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY BUT WARMER IN MOST COASTAL AREAS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS ENTERING THE PACNW THIS MORNING AND WILL
BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CA TONIGHT. STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHER IMPACT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS...TURNING NORTHEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. MANY WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AND WILL LOOK AT HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...

THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND SETS UP A
SANTA ANA WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER DETAILS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKES
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS...COLD NIGHTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZE WARNING BEING
ISSUED.

THE SANTA ANA PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1310Z.

AT 12Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION AROUND KLAX AT 13Z THIS MORNING.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LIFR CONDS WILL OCCUR AROUND KPRB
THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED MVFR TO VFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST
INTERIOR LOCATIONS N OF POINT CONCEPTION. MOST AREAS SHOULD BECOME
VFR AFTER 16 TO 18Z TODAY.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN EASTERN LA COUNTY FOOTHILLS...AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS BANKING
UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN SLOPES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LA/VTU
COUNTIES. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z.

KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

MARINE...21/900 AM PST...

IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT/HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

















000
FXUS66 KLOX 211739
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
937 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014


.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THE AIR MASS SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE THROUGHOUT
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BRING MARGINALLY STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN GIVE
AWAY TO MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...

THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND SETS UP A
SANTA ANA WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER DETAILS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKES
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS...COLD NIGHTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZE WARNING BEING
ISSUED.

THE SANTA ANA PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 22/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 22/17Z
THEN MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

MARINE...21/900 AM PST...

IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...HALL/BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 211739
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
937 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014


.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THE AIR MASS SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE THROUGHOUT
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BRING MARGINALLY STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN GIVE
AWAY TO MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...

THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND SETS UP A
SANTA ANA WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER DETAILS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKES
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS...COLD NIGHTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZE WARNING BEING
ISSUED.

THE SANTA ANA PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 22/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 22/17Z
THEN MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

MARINE...21/900 AM PST...

IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...HALL/BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

















000
FXUS66 KLOX 211653
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
850 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014


.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THE AIR MASS SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE THROUGHOUT
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BRING MARGINALLY STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN GIVE
AWAY TO MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...

THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND SETS UP A
SANTA ANA WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER DETAILS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKES
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS...COLD NIGHTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZE WARNING BEING
ISSUED.

THE SANTA ANA PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1310Z.

AT 12Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION AROUND KLAX AT 13Z THIS MORNING.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LIFR CONDS WILL OCCUR AROUND KPRB
THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED MVFR TO VFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST
INTERIOR LOCATIONS N OF POINT CONCEPTION. MOST AREAS SHOULD BECOME
VFR AFTER 16 TO 18Z TODAY.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN EASTERN LA COUNTY FOOTHILLS...AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS BANKING
UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN SLOPES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LA/VTU
COUNTIES. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z.

KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

MARINE...21/900 AM PST...

IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...HALL/BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 211653
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
850 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014


.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THE AIR MASS SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE THROUGHOUT
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BRING MARGINALLY STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN GIVE
AWAY TO MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...

THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND SETS UP A
SANTA ANA WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER DETAILS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKES
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS...COLD NIGHTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZE WARNING BEING
ISSUED.

THE SANTA ANA PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1310Z.

AT 12Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION AROUND KLAX AT 13Z THIS MORNING.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LIFR CONDS WILL OCCUR AROUND KPRB
THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED MVFR TO VFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST
INTERIOR LOCATIONS N OF POINT CONCEPTION. MOST AREAS SHOULD BECOME
VFR AFTER 16 TO 18Z TODAY.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN EASTERN LA COUNTY FOOTHILLS...AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS BANKING
UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN SLOPES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LA/VTU
COUNTIES. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z.

KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

MARINE...21/900 AM PST...

IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...HALL/BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 211309
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
515 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THE AIR MASS SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE THROUGHOUT
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BRING MARGINALLY STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN GIVE
AWAY TO MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...

THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND SETS UP A
SANTA ANA WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER DETAILS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKES
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS...COLD NIGHTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZE WARNING BEING
ISSUED.

THE SANTA ANA PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1310Z.

AT 12Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION AROUND KLAX AT 13Z THIS MORNING.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LIFR CONDS WILL OCCUR AROUND KPRB
THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED MVFR TO VFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST
INTERIOR LOCATIONS N OF POINT CONCEPTION. MOST AREAS SHOULD BECOME
VFR AFTER 16 TO 18Z TODAY.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN EASTERN LA COUNTY FOOTHILLS...AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS BANKING
UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN SLOPES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LA/VTU
COUNTIES. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z.

KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

MARINE...21/300 AM PST.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE NW WINDS WITH SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE WINDS INCREASING SAT INTO SUN WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KT NEAR SAN NICOLAS IS. AND PT CONCEPTION...WITH A CHANCE
OF 35 KT GUSTS BY SUN NIGHT.

INNER WATERS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH AS A SIMILAR
PERIOD NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS ON FRI. A SOMEWHAT LARGER NW
SWELL AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER WATERS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL/SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...HALL/BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 211309
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
515 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THE AIR MASS SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE THROUGHOUT
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BRING MARGINALLY STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN GIVE
AWAY TO MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...

THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND SETS UP A
SANTA ANA WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER DETAILS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKES
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS...COLD NIGHTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZE WARNING BEING
ISSUED.

THE SANTA ANA PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1310Z.

AT 12Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION AROUND KLAX AT 13Z THIS MORNING.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LIFR CONDS WILL OCCUR AROUND KPRB
THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED MVFR TO VFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST
INTERIOR LOCATIONS N OF POINT CONCEPTION. MOST AREAS SHOULD BECOME
VFR AFTER 16 TO 18Z TODAY.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN EASTERN LA COUNTY FOOTHILLS...AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS BANKING
UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN SLOPES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LA/VTU
COUNTIES. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z.

KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

MARINE...21/300 AM PST.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE NW WINDS WITH SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE WINDS INCREASING SAT INTO SUN WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KT NEAR SAN NICOLAS IS. AND PT CONCEPTION...WITH A CHANCE
OF 35 KT GUSTS BY SUN NIGHT.

INNER WATERS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH AS A SIMILAR
PERIOD NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS ON FRI. A SOMEWHAT LARGER NW
SWELL AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER WATERS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL/SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...HALL/BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 211135
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
335 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THE AIR MASS SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE THROUGHOUT
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BRING MARGINALLY STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN GIVE
AWAY TO MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...

THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND SETS UP A
SANTA ANA WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER DETAILS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKES
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS...COLD NIGHTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZE WARNING BEING
ISSUED.

THE SANTA ANA PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/0636Z.

AT 0600Z...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AT 4500 FEET AND
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AT 7600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 10C.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 08Z...THEN LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH 11Z.
LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST 16Z...THEN IMPROVE TO THE VFR
CATEGORY.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z.

KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
15Z.

&&

MARINE...21/300 AM PST.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE NW WINDS WITH SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE WINDS INCREASING SAT INTO SUN WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KT NEAR SAN NICOLAS IS. AND PT CONCEPTION...WITH A CHANCE
OF 35 KT GUSTS BY SUN NIGHT.

INNER WATERS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH AS A SIMILAR
PERIOD NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS ON FRI. A SOMEWHAT LARGER NW
SWELL AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER WATERS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL/SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...HALL/BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 211135
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
335 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THE AIR MASS SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE THROUGHOUT
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BRING MARGINALLY STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN GIVE
AWAY TO MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...

THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND SETS UP A
SANTA ANA WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER DETAILS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKES
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS...COLD NIGHTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZE WARNING BEING
ISSUED.

THE SANTA ANA PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/0636Z.

AT 0600Z...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AT 4500 FEET AND
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AT 7600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 10C.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 08Z...THEN LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH 11Z.
LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST 16Z...THEN IMPROVE TO THE VFR
CATEGORY.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z.

KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
15Z.

&&

MARINE...21/300 AM PST.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE NW WINDS WITH SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE WINDS INCREASING SAT INTO SUN WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KT NEAR SAN NICOLAS IS. AND PT CONCEPTION...WITH A CHANCE
OF 35 KT GUSTS BY SUN NIGHT.

INNER WATERS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH AS A SIMILAR
PERIOD NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS ON FRI. A SOMEWHAT LARGER NW
SWELL AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER WATERS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL/SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...HALL/BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 210637 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1036 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...A RATHER SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL CA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROF WAS BRINGING SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS TO
WESTERN SLO/SBA COUNTIES WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REPORTED
AT A FEW STATIONS THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROF WILL PUSH
QUICKLY INLAND AND SE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN CA TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING THRU THE
FORECAST AREA. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO L.A./VTU
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY ON THE N MTN
SLOPES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 0.15
INCH OR LESS. MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE
COLD AIR ALOFT (-22 DEG C AT 500 MB) AND GOOD INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
(LI`S -4 TO -5 ACCORDING TO THE NAM)...WITH THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE ZONES FOR
TONIGHT.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE TO SE THRU FRI...
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RECOVERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A BROAD
NORTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON FRI...WHICH
SHOULD DIMINISH CLOUD COVER FOR THE COAST AND VLYS...AND KEEP
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE N MTNS SLOPES AND INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES. A
FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE N SLOPES IN THE
MORNING...MAINLY FOR VTU COUNTY. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AGAIN WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER SWRN CA FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. A BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE WELL OFF THE CA
COAST CAN BE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND SUN. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES SAT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE N MTN SLOPES FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PCPN.
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE L.A./VTU MTNS FRI NIGHT AS
WELL AS THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND S COAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT TIMES THRU SAT NIGHT...AND SPREAD INTO THE ANTELOPE VLY. WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE NORTHEAST ON SUN WITH GUSTY WINDS BELOW AND THRU THE
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND THE N MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT EVENING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUN THANKS TO THE
DRYING OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPS ON SAT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...THEN TURN MILDER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL MAINLY W OF THE MTNS
ON SUN...WHILE TEMPS CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MTNS AND
DESERTS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THEN THE ECM TAKES ITS OWN PATH
WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS (GFS/GEM) PUSH A RIDGE TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER EASTERN
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE ON THE
GFS WILL EXPECT INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER/DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND A
POTENTIAL RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WOULD BE PLAUSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE COASTS AND
VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...21/0636Z.

AT 0600Z...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AT 4500 FEET AND
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AT 7600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 10C.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 08Z...THEN LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH 11Z.
LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST 16Z...THEN IMPROVE TO THE VFR
CATEGORY.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z.

KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
15Z.

&&

.MARINE...20/800 PM PST...

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE NW WINDS WITH SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. THIS
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE
WINDS INCREASING SAT INTO SUN WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT NEAR SAN NICOLAS
IS. AND PT CONCEPTION...WITH A CHANCE OF 35 KT GUSTS BY SUN NIGHT.

INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT NW WINDS TO SCA
LEVELS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650 AND 655 THRU LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS ALONG WITH
BUILDING WIND WAVES.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH AS A SIMILAR
PERIOD NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS ON FRI. A SOMEWHAT LARGER NW
SWELL AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER WATERS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/BOLDT
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 210637 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1036 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...A RATHER SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL CA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROF WAS BRINGING SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS TO
WESTERN SLO/SBA COUNTIES WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REPORTED
AT A FEW STATIONS THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROF WILL PUSH
QUICKLY INLAND AND SE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN CA TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING THRU THE
FORECAST AREA. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO L.A./VTU
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY ON THE N MTN
SLOPES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 0.15
INCH OR LESS. MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE
COLD AIR ALOFT (-22 DEG C AT 500 MB) AND GOOD INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
(LI`S -4 TO -5 ACCORDING TO THE NAM)...WITH THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE ZONES FOR
TONIGHT.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE TO SE THRU FRI...
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RECOVERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A BROAD
NORTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON FRI...WHICH
SHOULD DIMINISH CLOUD COVER FOR THE COAST AND VLYS...AND KEEP
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE N MTNS SLOPES AND INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES. A
FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE N SLOPES IN THE
MORNING...MAINLY FOR VTU COUNTY. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AGAIN WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER SWRN CA FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. A BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE WELL OFF THE CA
COAST CAN BE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND SUN. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES SAT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE N MTN SLOPES FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PCPN.
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE L.A./VTU MTNS FRI NIGHT AS
WELL AS THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND S COAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT TIMES THRU SAT NIGHT...AND SPREAD INTO THE ANTELOPE VLY. WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE NORTHEAST ON SUN WITH GUSTY WINDS BELOW AND THRU THE
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND THE N MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT EVENING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUN THANKS TO THE
DRYING OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPS ON SAT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...THEN TURN MILDER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL MAINLY W OF THE MTNS
ON SUN...WHILE TEMPS CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MTNS AND
DESERTS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THEN THE ECM TAKES ITS OWN PATH
WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS (GFS/GEM) PUSH A RIDGE TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER EASTERN
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE ON THE
GFS WILL EXPECT INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER/DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND A
POTENTIAL RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WOULD BE PLAUSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE COASTS AND
VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...21/0636Z.

AT 0600Z...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AT 4500 FEET AND
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AT 7600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 10C.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 08Z...THEN LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH 11Z.
LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST 16Z...THEN IMPROVE TO THE VFR
CATEGORY.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z.

KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
15Z.

&&

.MARINE...20/800 PM PST...

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE NW WINDS WITH SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. THIS
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE
WINDS INCREASING SAT INTO SUN WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT NEAR SAN NICOLAS
IS. AND PT CONCEPTION...WITH A CHANCE OF 35 KT GUSTS BY SUN NIGHT.

INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT NW WINDS TO SCA
LEVELS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650 AND 655 THRU LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS ALONG WITH
BUILDING WIND WAVES.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH AS A SIMILAR
PERIOD NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS ON FRI. A SOMEWHAT LARGER NW
SWELL AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER WATERS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/BOLDT
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 210420
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
820 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...A RATHER SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL CA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROF WAS BRINGING SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS TO
WESTERN SLO/SBA COUNTIES WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REPORTED
AT A FEW STATIONS THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROF WILL PUSH
QUICKLY INLAND AND SE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN CA TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING THRU THE
FORECAST AREA. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO L.A./VTU
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY ON THE N MTN
SLOPES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 0.15
INCH OR LESS. MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE
COLD AIR ALOFT (-22 DEG C AT 500 MB) AND GOOD INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
(LI`S -4 TO -5 ACCORDING TO THE NAM)...WITH THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE ZONES FOR
TONIGHT.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE TO SE THRU FRI...
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RECOVERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A BROAD
NORTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON FRI...WHICH
SHOULD DIMINISH CLOUD COVER FOR THE COAST AND VLYS...AND KEEP
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE N MTNS SLOPES AND INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES. A
FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE N SLOPES IN THE
MORNING...MAINLY FOR VTU COUNTY. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AGAIN WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER SWRN CA FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. A BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE WELL OFF THE CA
COAST CAN BE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND SUN. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES SAT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE N MTN SLOPES FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PCPN.
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE L.A./VTU MTNS FRI NIGHT AS
WELL AS THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND S COAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT TIMES THRU SAT NIGHT...AND SPREAD INTO THE ANTELOPE VLY. WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE NORTHEAST ON SUN WITH GUSTY WINDS BELOW AND THRU THE
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND THE N MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT EVENING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUN THANKS TO THE
DRYING OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPS ON SAT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...THEN TURN MILDER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL MAINLY W OF THE MTNS
ON SUN...WHILE TEMPS CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MTNS AND
DESERTS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THEN THE ECM TAKES ITS OWN PATH
WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS (GFS/GEM) PUSH A RIDGE TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER EASTERN
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE ON THE
GFS WILL EXPECT INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER/DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND A
POTENTIAL RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WOULD BE PLAUSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE COASTS AND
VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...21/0030Z.

AT 0010Z OVER KLAX...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 5600 FEET AND
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AT 6500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 10C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU LATE TONIGHT OR SAT MORNING...ALTHO THE
TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN FLIGHT CATS IS PROBLEMATIC AND MAY
BE OFF ONE TO TWO HOURS. FOR THE COAST AND VLYS S OF POINT
CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES OF MVFR CIGS AND THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THESE CIGS.
THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...AND MVFR CIGS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. IT DOES LOOK LIKE
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY FRI MORNING AS
NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. FOR KWJF AND KPMD...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THEY MAY
NOT DEVELOP...AND THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWJF AND
KPMD THRU FRI AFTERNOON.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE ARE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MVFR CIGS AND THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THESE
CIGS. THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...AND MVFR CIGS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY 14Z FRI AS A NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...20/800 PM PST...

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE NW WINDS WITH SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. THIS
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE
WINDS INCREASING SAT INTO SUN WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT NEAR SAN NICOLAS
IS. AND PT CONCEPTION...WITH A CHANCE OF 35 KT GUSTS BY SUN NIGHT.

INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT NW WINDS TO SCA
LEVELS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650 AND 655 THRU LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS ALONG WITH
BUILDING WIND WAVES.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH AS A SIMILAR
PERIOD NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS ON FRI. A SOMEWHAT LARGER NW
SWELL AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER WATERS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/BOLDT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 210420
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
820 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...A RATHER SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL CA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROF WAS BRINGING SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS TO
WESTERN SLO/SBA COUNTIES WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REPORTED
AT A FEW STATIONS THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROF WILL PUSH
QUICKLY INLAND AND SE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN CA TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING THRU THE
FORECAST AREA. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO L.A./VTU
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY ON THE N MTN
SLOPES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 0.15
INCH OR LESS. MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE
COLD AIR ALOFT (-22 DEG C AT 500 MB) AND GOOD INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
(LI`S -4 TO -5 ACCORDING TO THE NAM)...WITH THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE ZONES FOR
TONIGHT.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE TO SE THRU FRI...
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RECOVERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A BROAD
NORTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON FRI...WHICH
SHOULD DIMINISH CLOUD COVER FOR THE COAST AND VLYS...AND KEEP
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE N MTNS SLOPES AND INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES. A
FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE N SLOPES IN THE
MORNING...MAINLY FOR VTU COUNTY. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AGAIN WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER SWRN CA FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. A BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE WELL OFF THE CA
COAST CAN BE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND SUN. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES SAT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE N MTN SLOPES FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PCPN.
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE L.A./VTU MTNS FRI NIGHT AS
WELL AS THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND S COAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT TIMES THRU SAT NIGHT...AND SPREAD INTO THE ANTELOPE VLY. WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE NORTHEAST ON SUN WITH GUSTY WINDS BELOW AND THRU THE
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND THE N MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT EVENING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUN THANKS TO THE
DRYING OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPS ON SAT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...THEN TURN MILDER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL MAINLY W OF THE MTNS
ON SUN...WHILE TEMPS CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MTNS AND
DESERTS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THEN THE ECM TAKES ITS OWN PATH
WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS (GFS/GEM) PUSH A RIDGE TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER EASTERN
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE ON THE
GFS WILL EXPECT INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER/DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND A
POTENTIAL RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WOULD BE PLAUSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE COASTS AND
VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...21/0030Z.

AT 0010Z OVER KLAX...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 5600 FEET AND
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AT 6500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 10C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU LATE TONIGHT OR SAT MORNING...ALTHO THE
TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN FLIGHT CATS IS PROBLEMATIC AND MAY
BE OFF ONE TO TWO HOURS. FOR THE COAST AND VLYS S OF POINT
CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES OF MVFR CIGS AND THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THESE CIGS.
THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...AND MVFR CIGS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. IT DOES LOOK LIKE
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY FRI MORNING AS
NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. FOR KWJF AND KPMD...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THEY MAY
NOT DEVELOP...AND THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWJF AND
KPMD THRU FRI AFTERNOON.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE ARE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MVFR CIGS AND THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THESE
CIGS. THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...AND MVFR CIGS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY 14Z FRI AS A NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...20/800 PM PST...

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE NW WINDS WITH SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. THIS
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE
WINDS INCREASING SAT INTO SUN WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT NEAR SAN NICOLAS
IS. AND PT CONCEPTION...WITH A CHANCE OF 35 KT GUSTS BY SUN NIGHT.

INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT NW WINDS TO SCA
LEVELS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650 AND 655 THRU LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS ALONG WITH
BUILDING WIND WAVES.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH AS A SIMILAR
PERIOD NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS ON FRI. A SOMEWHAT LARGER NW
SWELL AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER WATERS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/BOLDT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 210420
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
820 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...A RATHER SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL CA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROF WAS BRINGING SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS TO
WESTERN SLO/SBA COUNTIES WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REPORTED
AT A FEW STATIONS THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROF WILL PUSH
QUICKLY INLAND AND SE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN CA TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING THRU THE
FORECAST AREA. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO L.A./VTU
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY ON THE N MTN
SLOPES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 0.15
INCH OR LESS. MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE
COLD AIR ALOFT (-22 DEG C AT 500 MB) AND GOOD INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
(LI`S -4 TO -5 ACCORDING TO THE NAM)...WITH THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE ZONES FOR
TONIGHT.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE TO SE THRU FRI...
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RECOVERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A BROAD
NORTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON FRI...WHICH
SHOULD DIMINISH CLOUD COVER FOR THE COAST AND VLYS...AND KEEP
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE N MTNS SLOPES AND INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES. A
FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE N SLOPES IN THE
MORNING...MAINLY FOR VTU COUNTY. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AGAIN WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER SWRN CA FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. A BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE WELL OFF THE CA
COAST CAN BE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND SUN. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES SAT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE N MTN SLOPES FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PCPN.
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE L.A./VTU MTNS FRI NIGHT AS
WELL AS THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND S COAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT TIMES THRU SAT NIGHT...AND SPREAD INTO THE ANTELOPE VLY. WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE NORTHEAST ON SUN WITH GUSTY WINDS BELOW AND THRU THE
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND THE N MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT EVENING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUN THANKS TO THE
DRYING OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPS ON SAT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...THEN TURN MILDER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL MAINLY W OF THE MTNS
ON SUN...WHILE TEMPS CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MTNS AND
DESERTS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THEN THE ECM TAKES ITS OWN PATH
WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS (GFS/GEM) PUSH A RIDGE TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER EASTERN
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE ON THE
GFS WILL EXPECT INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER/DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND A
POTENTIAL RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WOULD BE PLAUSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE COASTS AND
VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...21/0030Z.

AT 0010Z OVER KLAX...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 5600 FEET AND
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AT 6500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 10C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU LATE TONIGHT OR SAT MORNING...ALTHO THE
TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN FLIGHT CATS IS PROBLEMATIC AND MAY
BE OFF ONE TO TWO HOURS. FOR THE COAST AND VLYS S OF POINT
CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES OF MVFR CIGS AND THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THESE CIGS.
THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...AND MVFR CIGS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. IT DOES LOOK LIKE
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY FRI MORNING AS
NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. FOR KWJF AND KPMD...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THEY MAY
NOT DEVELOP...AND THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWJF AND
KPMD THRU FRI AFTERNOON.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE ARE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MVFR CIGS AND THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THESE
CIGS. THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...AND MVFR CIGS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY 14Z FRI AS A NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...20/800 PM PST...

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE NW WINDS WITH SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. THIS
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE
WINDS INCREASING SAT INTO SUN WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT NEAR SAN NICOLAS
IS. AND PT CONCEPTION...WITH A CHANCE OF 35 KT GUSTS BY SUN NIGHT.

INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT NW WINDS TO SCA
LEVELS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650 AND 655 THRU LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS ALONG WITH
BUILDING WIND WAVES.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH AS A SIMILAR
PERIOD NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS ON FRI. A SOMEWHAT LARGER NW
SWELL AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER WATERS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/BOLDT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 210420
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
820 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...A RATHER SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL CA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROF WAS BRINGING SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS TO
WESTERN SLO/SBA COUNTIES WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REPORTED
AT A FEW STATIONS THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROF WILL PUSH
QUICKLY INLAND AND SE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN CA TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING THRU THE
FORECAST AREA. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO L.A./VTU
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY ON THE N MTN
SLOPES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 0.15
INCH OR LESS. MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE
COLD AIR ALOFT (-22 DEG C AT 500 MB) AND GOOD INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
(LI`S -4 TO -5 ACCORDING TO THE NAM)...WITH THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE ZONES FOR
TONIGHT.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE TO SE THRU FRI...
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RECOVERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A BROAD
NORTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON FRI...WHICH
SHOULD DIMINISH CLOUD COVER FOR THE COAST AND VLYS...AND KEEP
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE N MTNS SLOPES AND INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES. A
FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE N SLOPES IN THE
MORNING...MAINLY FOR VTU COUNTY. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AGAIN WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER SWRN CA FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. A BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE WELL OFF THE CA
COAST CAN BE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND SUN. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES SAT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE N MTN SLOPES FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PCPN.
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE L.A./VTU MTNS FRI NIGHT AS
WELL AS THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND S COAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT TIMES THRU SAT NIGHT...AND SPREAD INTO THE ANTELOPE VLY. WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE NORTHEAST ON SUN WITH GUSTY WINDS BELOW AND THRU THE
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND THE N MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT EVENING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUN THANKS TO THE
DRYING OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPS ON SAT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...THEN TURN MILDER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL MAINLY W OF THE MTNS
ON SUN...WHILE TEMPS CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MTNS AND
DESERTS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THEN THE ECM TAKES ITS OWN PATH
WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS (GFS/GEM) PUSH A RIDGE TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER EASTERN
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE ON THE
GFS WILL EXPECT INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER/DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND A
POTENTIAL RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WOULD BE PLAUSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE COASTS AND
VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...21/0030Z.

AT 0010Z OVER KLAX...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 5600 FEET AND
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AT 6500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 10C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU LATE TONIGHT OR SAT MORNING...ALTHO THE
TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN FLIGHT CATS IS PROBLEMATIC AND MAY
BE OFF ONE TO TWO HOURS. FOR THE COAST AND VLYS S OF POINT
CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES OF MVFR CIGS AND THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THESE CIGS.
THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...AND MVFR CIGS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. IT DOES LOOK LIKE
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY FRI MORNING AS
NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. FOR KWJF AND KPMD...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THEY MAY
NOT DEVELOP...AND THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWJF AND
KPMD THRU FRI AFTERNOON.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE ARE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MVFR CIGS AND THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THESE
CIGS. THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...AND MVFR CIGS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY 14Z FRI AS A NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...20/800 PM PST...

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE NW WINDS WITH SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. THIS
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE
WINDS INCREASING SAT INTO SUN WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT NEAR SAN NICOLAS
IS. AND PT CONCEPTION...WITH A CHANCE OF 35 KT GUSTS BY SUN NIGHT.

INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT NW WINDS TO SCA
LEVELS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650 AND 655 THRU LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS ALONG WITH
BUILDING WIND WAVES.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH AS A SIMILAR
PERIOD NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS ON FRI. A SOMEWHAT LARGER NW
SWELL AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER WATERS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/BOLDT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 210039 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...MAIN FORECAST IMPACTS WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND WINDS ON SATURDAY. UPPER LOW IS JUST NORTH OF
SFO BAY AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHTNING IN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
OFF THE COAST. RADAR ONLY PICKING UP VIRGA ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AT 130PM AND NOT EXPECTING MORE ORGANIZED RAIN UNTIL MAINLY AFTER
00Z IN SLO COUNTY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CA TODAY KEEPING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES A GOOD 3-7
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
PATH IS MORE INLAND THAN PREFERRED TO GET MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHWEST CA...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT SKIRTS BY JUST TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BUT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL RANGE FROM 0.15 IN THE NORTH TO TRACE AMOUNTS IN MOST CASES.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE STORM WILL KEEP MOISTURE UPSLOPING ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY WITH THIS AREA SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE TOMORROW
MORNING FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY WITH
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND THE SANTA MONICAS ON FRIDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEAR THE
COAST TOMORROW.

A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CA
FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT FOR THE MOST PART DRY CONDITIONS.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WE EXPECT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER AT
TIMES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO CA ON
SATURDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ON
SUNDAY WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FOR
SOUTHWEST CA.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THEN THE ECM TAKES ITS OWN PATH
WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS (GFS/GEM) PUSH A RIDGE TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER EASTERN
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE ON THE
GFS WILL EXPECT INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER/DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND A
POTENTIAL RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WOULD BE PLAUSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE COASTS AND
VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...21/0030Z.

AT 0010Z OVER KLAX...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 5600 FEET AND
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AT 6500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 10C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU LATE TONIGHT OR SAT MORNING...ALTHO THE
TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN FLIGHT CATS IS PROBLEMATIC AND MAY
BE OFF ONE TO TWO HOURS. FOR THE COAST AND VLYS S OF POINT
CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES OF MVFR CIGS AND THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THESE CIGS.
THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...AND MVFR CIGS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. IT DOES LOOK LIKE
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY FRI MORNING AS
NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. FOR KWJF AND KPMD...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THEY MAY
NOT DEVELOP...AND THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWJF AND
KPMD THRU FRI AFTERNOON.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE ARE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MVFR CIGS AND THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THESE
CIGS. THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...AND MVFR CIGS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY 14Z FRI AS A NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...20/200 PM PST...

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE NW WINDS WITH SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. THIS
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE
WINDS INCREASING SAT INTO SUN WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT NEAR SAN NICOLAS
IS. AND PT CONCEPTION...WITH A CHANCE OF 35 KT GUSTS BY SUN NIGHT.

INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT INCREASING NW WINDS
WILL FILL INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650 AND 655 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER WINDS MAY BE DELAYED BY 2-3 HOURS FOR ZONE
655. HOWEVER...GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THESE ZONES ALONG WITH BUILDING WIND WAVES.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH AS A SIMILAR
PERIOD NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS ON FRI. A SOMEWHAT LARGER NW
SWELL AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER WATERS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 210039 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...MAIN FORECAST IMPACTS WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND WINDS ON SATURDAY. UPPER LOW IS JUST NORTH OF
SFO BAY AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHTNING IN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
OFF THE COAST. RADAR ONLY PICKING UP VIRGA ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AT 130PM AND NOT EXPECTING MORE ORGANIZED RAIN UNTIL MAINLY AFTER
00Z IN SLO COUNTY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CA TODAY KEEPING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES A GOOD 3-7
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
PATH IS MORE INLAND THAN PREFERRED TO GET MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHWEST CA...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT SKIRTS BY JUST TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BUT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL RANGE FROM 0.15 IN THE NORTH TO TRACE AMOUNTS IN MOST CASES.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE STORM WILL KEEP MOISTURE UPSLOPING ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY WITH THIS AREA SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE TOMORROW
MORNING FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY WITH
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND THE SANTA MONICAS ON FRIDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEAR THE
COAST TOMORROW.

A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CA
FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT FOR THE MOST PART DRY CONDITIONS.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WE EXPECT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER AT
TIMES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO CA ON
SATURDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ON
SUNDAY WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FOR
SOUTHWEST CA.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THEN THE ECM TAKES ITS OWN PATH
WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS (GFS/GEM) PUSH A RIDGE TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER EASTERN
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE ON THE
GFS WILL EXPECT INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER/DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND A
POTENTIAL RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WOULD BE PLAUSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE COASTS AND
VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...21/0030Z.

AT 0010Z OVER KLAX...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 5600 FEET AND
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AT 6500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 10C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU LATE TONIGHT OR SAT MORNING...ALTHO THE
TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN FLIGHT CATS IS PROBLEMATIC AND MAY
BE OFF ONE TO TWO HOURS. FOR THE COAST AND VLYS S OF POINT
CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES OF MVFR CIGS AND THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THESE CIGS.
THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...AND MVFR CIGS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. IT DOES LOOK LIKE
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY FRI MORNING AS
NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. FOR KWJF AND KPMD...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THEY MAY
NOT DEVELOP...AND THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWJF AND
KPMD THRU FRI AFTERNOON.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE ARE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MVFR CIGS AND THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THESE
CIGS. THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...AND MVFR CIGS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY 14Z FRI AS A NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...20/200 PM PST...

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE NW WINDS WITH SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. THIS
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE
WINDS INCREASING SAT INTO SUN WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT NEAR SAN NICOLAS
IS. AND PT CONCEPTION...WITH A CHANCE OF 35 KT GUSTS BY SUN NIGHT.

INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT INCREASING NW WINDS
WILL FILL INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650 AND 655 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER WINDS MAY BE DELAYED BY 2-3 HOURS FOR ZONE
655. HOWEVER...GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THESE ZONES ALONG WITH BUILDING WIND WAVES.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH AS A SIMILAR
PERIOD NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS ON FRI. A SOMEWHAT LARGER NW
SWELL AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER WATERS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 202159
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...MAIN FORECAST IMPACTS WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND WINDS ON SATURDAY. UPPER LOW IS JUST NORTH OF
SFO BAY AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHTNING IN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
OFF THE COAST. RADAR ONLY PICKING UP VIRGA ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AT 130PM AND NOT EXPECTING MORE ORGANIZED RAIN UNTIL MAINLY AFTER
00Z IN SLO COUNTY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CA TODAY KEEPING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES A GOOD 3-7
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
PATH IS MORE INLAND THAN PREFERRED TO GET MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHWEST CA...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT SKIRTS BY JUST TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BUT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL RANGE FROM 0.15 IN THE NORTH TO TRACE AMOUNTS IN MOST CASES.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE STORM WILL KEEP MOISTURE UPSLOPING ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY WITH THIS AREA SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE TOMORROW
MORNING FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY WITH
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND THE SANTA MONICAS ON FRIDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEAR THE
COAST TOMORROW.

A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CA
FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT FOR THE MOST PART DRY CONDITIONS.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WE EXPECT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER AT
TIMES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO CA ON
SATURDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ON
SUNDAY WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FOR
SOUTHWEST CA.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THEN THE ECM TAKES ITS OWN PATH
WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS (GFS/GEM) PUSH A RIDGE TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER EASTERN
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE ON THE
GFS WILL EXPECT INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER/DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND A
POTENTIAL RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WOULD BE PLAUSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE COASTS AND
VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...20/1800Z.

AT 1800Z...AT 1725Z
OVER KLAX...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 5200 FEET AND THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AT 7200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 9C.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE AS MARINE LAYER
CIGS BEGIN TO CLEAR BUT LOWER CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CONDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN.
THE GREATEST THREAT OF -SHRA WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. CIGS LIFTING
TO VFR AFTER 06Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS WITH MVFR
CIGS FOR COAST AND VALLEY SITES THROUGH 12Z. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDS 00Z-12Z FOR LA COUNTY VALLEYS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS...THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS FROM 20Z-00Z TODAY. AFTER 00Z THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF IFR
CONDS DURING PERIODIC -SHRA. 20% CHANCE MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER
14Z-18Z.

BUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 30% CHANCE MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
EARLIER THAN FORECAST OF 01Z. 40% CHANCE MVFR CIGS WITH -SHRA WILL
DEVELOP BY 04Z...AND LINGER THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...20/200 PM PST...

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE NW WINDS WITH SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. THIS
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE
WINDS INCREASING SAT INTO SUN WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT NEAR SAN NICOLAS
IS. AND PT CONCEPTION...WITH A CHANCE OF 35 KT GUSTS BY SUN NIGHT.

INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT INCREASING NW WINDS
WILL FILL INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650 AND 655 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER WINDS MAY BE DELAYED BY 2-3 HOURS FOR ZONE
655. HOWEVER...GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THESE ZONES ALONG WITH BUILDING WIND WAVES.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH AS A SIMILAR
PERIOD NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS ON FRI. A SOMEWHAT LARGER NW
SWELL AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER WATERS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 202159
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...MAIN FORECAST IMPACTS WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND WINDS ON SATURDAY. UPPER LOW IS JUST NORTH OF
SFO BAY AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHTNING IN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
OFF THE COAST. RADAR ONLY PICKING UP VIRGA ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AT 130PM AND NOT EXPECTING MORE ORGANIZED RAIN UNTIL MAINLY AFTER
00Z IN SLO COUNTY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CA TODAY KEEPING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES A GOOD 3-7
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
PATH IS MORE INLAND THAN PREFERRED TO GET MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHWEST CA...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT SKIRTS BY JUST TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BUT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL RANGE FROM 0.15 IN THE NORTH TO TRACE AMOUNTS IN MOST CASES.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE STORM WILL KEEP MOISTURE UPSLOPING ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY WITH THIS AREA SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE TOMORROW
MORNING FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY WITH
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND THE SANTA MONICAS ON FRIDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEAR THE
COAST TOMORROW.

A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CA
FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT FOR THE MOST PART DRY CONDITIONS.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WE EXPECT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER AT
TIMES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO CA ON
SATURDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ON
SUNDAY WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FOR
SOUTHWEST CA.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THEN THE ECM TAKES ITS OWN PATH
WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS (GFS/GEM) PUSH A RIDGE TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER EASTERN
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE ON THE
GFS WILL EXPECT INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER/DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND A
POTENTIAL RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WOULD BE PLAUSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE COASTS AND
VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...20/1800Z.

AT 1800Z...AT 1725Z
OVER KLAX...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 5200 FEET AND THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AT 7200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 9C.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE AS MARINE LAYER
CIGS BEGIN TO CLEAR BUT LOWER CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CONDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN.
THE GREATEST THREAT OF -SHRA WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. CIGS LIFTING
TO VFR AFTER 06Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS WITH MVFR
CIGS FOR COAST AND VALLEY SITES THROUGH 12Z. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDS 00Z-12Z FOR LA COUNTY VALLEYS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS...THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS FROM 20Z-00Z TODAY. AFTER 00Z THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF IFR
CONDS DURING PERIODIC -SHRA. 20% CHANCE MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER
14Z-18Z.

BUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 30% CHANCE MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
EARLIER THAN FORECAST OF 01Z. 40% CHANCE MVFR CIGS WITH -SHRA WILL
DEVELOP BY 04Z...AND LINGER THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...20/200 PM PST...

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE NW WINDS WITH SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. THIS
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE
WINDS INCREASING SAT INTO SUN WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT NEAR SAN NICOLAS
IS. AND PT CONCEPTION...WITH A CHANCE OF 35 KT GUSTS BY SUN NIGHT.

INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT INCREASING NW WINDS
WILL FILL INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650 AND 655 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER WINDS MAY BE DELAYED BY 2-3 HOURS FOR ZONE
655. HOWEVER...GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THESE ZONES ALONG WITH BUILDING WIND WAVES.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH AS A SIMILAR
PERIOD NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS ON FRI. A SOMEWHAT LARGER NW
SWELL AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER WATERS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 201814
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1015 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TIMING AND SKY COVER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST LAST NIGHT HAVE MAINLY DRIED UP LOOKING AT WEBCAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS IN LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR EAST
OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY EXCEPT FOR STRATOCUMULUS ALONG THE VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COASTS AND ACROSS THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. HIGHER CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING TODAY BUT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING MONTEREY COUNTY. EXPECT
MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE NEXT
PERIOD...OR AFTER 00Z (4PM PST) ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.

THE STORM TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WHICH IS CURRENTLY WEST
OF SAN FRANCISCO...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS TAKES THE LOW A LITTLE TOO FAR INLAND TO REALLY
TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE RESULT IN LESS OVERALL IMPACT FOR
SOUTHWEST CA. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CLIP OUR REGION WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS NEAR THE LOW CENTER TO OUR NORTH. THERE HAS BEEN A HISTORY
OF LIGHTNING NEAR THE LOW BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
AREA AS WELL. NONETHELESS...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY THIS EVENING THEN PUSH OUT OF LOS ANGELES
COUNTY BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE MOISTURE FROM THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE ON FRIDAY AND SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE REGION. A BETTER CHANCE OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOKS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

A NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...THEN AN OFFSHORE
FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. SANTA ANA WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN VEERS TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMED AGAIN FOR THE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD FOR NEXT WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS SOLUTIONS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SEEM MORE CONFIDENT IN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING INTO MAYBE FRIDAY...WHILE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS BRING AN INSIDE SLIDER TROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING. WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE BEHIND THE GFS SOLUTIONS FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST LEAN TOWARDS AND WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1800Z.

AT 1800Z OVER KLAX...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 5200 FEET AND
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AT 7200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 9C.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE AS MARINE LAYER
CIGS BEGIN TO CLEAR BUT LOWER CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CONDS AND OCCASIONAL -SHRA. THE
GREATEST THREAT OF -SHRA WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN CIGS LIFTING TO VFR AFTER 06Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS WITH MVFR TO
LOW VFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER THE COAST AND VALLEY SITES 00Z-12Z. 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS 00Z-12Z FOR LA COUNTY VALLEYS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS...THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS FROM 20Z-00Z TODAY. AFTER 00Z THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF IFR
CONDS DURING PERIODIC -SHRA. 20% CHANCE MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER
14Z-18Z.

BUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 30% CHANCE MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
EARLIER THAN FORECAST OF 01Z. 40% CHANCE MVFR CIGS WITH -SHRA WILL
DEVELOP BY 04Z...AND LINGER THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...20/900 AM PST...

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT INCREASING NW WINDS WILL BRING
SCA CONDITIONS TO THE TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES. THIS ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MODELS SHOW THE WINDS
INCREASING SAT INTO SUN WITH AT LEAST LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE
NW OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND BY SUN.

INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE INCREASING NW
WINDS WILL FILL INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650 AND 655 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER WINDS MAY BE DELAYED BY 2-3 HOURS FOR ZONE
655. HOWEVER...GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THESE ZONES AND THE RESULTING WIND WAVES WILL SPREAD
THROUGHOUT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SWELL HEIGHTS AROUND 7-9 FT. AFTER
THE SWELL DECREASES FOR A FEW DAYS...ANOTHER LARGER NW SWELL WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT/HALL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 201814
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1015 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TIMING AND SKY COVER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST LAST NIGHT HAVE MAINLY DRIED UP LOOKING AT WEBCAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS IN LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR EAST
OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY EXCEPT FOR STRATOCUMULUS ALONG THE VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COASTS AND ACROSS THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. HIGHER CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING TODAY BUT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING MONTEREY COUNTY. EXPECT
MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE NEXT
PERIOD...OR AFTER 00Z (4PM PST) ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.

THE STORM TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WHICH IS CURRENTLY WEST
OF SAN FRANCISCO...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS TAKES THE LOW A LITTLE TOO FAR INLAND TO REALLY
TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE RESULT IN LESS OVERALL IMPACT FOR
SOUTHWEST CA. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CLIP OUR REGION WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS NEAR THE LOW CENTER TO OUR NORTH. THERE HAS BEEN A HISTORY
OF LIGHTNING NEAR THE LOW BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
AREA AS WELL. NONETHELESS...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY THIS EVENING THEN PUSH OUT OF LOS ANGELES
COUNTY BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE MOISTURE FROM THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE ON FRIDAY AND SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE REGION. A BETTER CHANCE OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOKS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

A NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...THEN AN OFFSHORE
FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. SANTA ANA WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN VEERS TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMED AGAIN FOR THE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD FOR NEXT WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS SOLUTIONS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SEEM MORE CONFIDENT IN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING INTO MAYBE FRIDAY...WHILE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS BRING AN INSIDE SLIDER TROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING. WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE BEHIND THE GFS SOLUTIONS FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST LEAN TOWARDS AND WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1800Z.

AT 1800Z OVER KLAX...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 5200 FEET AND
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AT 7200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 9C.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE AS MARINE LAYER
CIGS BEGIN TO CLEAR BUT LOWER CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CONDS AND OCCASIONAL -SHRA. THE
GREATEST THREAT OF -SHRA WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN CIGS LIFTING TO VFR AFTER 06Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS WITH MVFR TO
LOW VFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER THE COAST AND VALLEY SITES 00Z-12Z. 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS 00Z-12Z FOR LA COUNTY VALLEYS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS...THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS FROM 20Z-00Z TODAY. AFTER 00Z THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF IFR
CONDS DURING PERIODIC -SHRA. 20% CHANCE MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER
14Z-18Z.

BUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 30% CHANCE MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
EARLIER THAN FORECAST OF 01Z. 40% CHANCE MVFR CIGS WITH -SHRA WILL
DEVELOP BY 04Z...AND LINGER THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...20/900 AM PST...

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT INCREASING NW WINDS WILL BRING
SCA CONDITIONS TO THE TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES. THIS ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MODELS SHOW THE WINDS
INCREASING SAT INTO SUN WITH AT LEAST LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE
NW OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND BY SUN.

INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE INCREASING NW
WINDS WILL FILL INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650 AND 655 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER WINDS MAY BE DELAYED BY 2-3 HOURS FOR ZONE
655. HOWEVER...GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THESE ZONES AND THE RESULTING WIND WAVES WILL SPREAD
THROUGHOUT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SWELL HEIGHTS AROUND 7-9 FT. AFTER
THE SWELL DECREASES FOR A FEW DAYS...ANOTHER LARGER NW SWELL WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT/HALL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 201729
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TIMING AND SKY COVER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST LAST NIGHT HAVE MAINLY DRIED UP LOOKING AT WEBCAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS IN LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR EAST
OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY EXCEPT FOR STRATOCUMULUS ALONG THE VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COASTS AND ACROSS THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. HIGHER CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING TODAY BUT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING MONTEREY COUNTY. EXPECT
MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE NEXT
PERIOD...OR AFTER 00Z (4PM PST) ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.

THE STORM TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WHICH IS CURRENTLY WEST
OF SAN FRANCISCO...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS TAKES THE LOW A LITTLE TOO FAR INLAND TO REALLY
TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE RESULT IN LESS OVERALL IMPACT FOR
SOUTHWEST CA. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CLIP OUR REGION WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS NEAR THE LOW CENTER TO OUR NORTH. THERE HAS BEEN A HISTORY
OF LIGHTNING NEAR THE LOW BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
AREA AS WELL. NONETHELESS...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY THIS EVENING THEN PUSH OUT OF LOS ANGELES
COUNTY BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE MOISTURE FROM THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE ON FRIDAY AND SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE REGION. A BETTER CHANCE OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOKS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

A NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...THEN AN OFFSHORE
FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. SANTA ANA WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN VEERS TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMED AGAIN FOR THE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD FOR NEXT WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS SOLUTIONS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SEEM MORE CONFIDENT IN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING INTO MAYBE FRIDAY...WHILE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS BRING AN INSIDE SLIDER TROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING. WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE BEHIND THE GFS SOLUTIONS FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST LEAN TOWARDS AND WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1240Z.

AT 1240Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS IN REGARDS
TO CIGS FROM LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. AFTER 16Z PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH -SHRA TIMING. BEST CHANCE AFTER 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CIGS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CONDS AFTER 00Z FOR
LA COUNTY INTERIOR AREAS AND INTERIOR MOUNTAINS FOR LA/VTU/SBA
COUNTIES.

KLAX AND KBUR...THERE IS 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER
00Z TO 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...20/900 AM PST...

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT INCREASING NW WINDS WILL BRING
SCA CONDITIONS TO THE TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES. THIS ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MODELS SHOW THE WINDS
INCREASING SAT INTO SUN WITH AT LEAST LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE
NW OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND BY SUN.

INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE INCREASING NW
WINDS WILL FILL INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650 AND 655 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER WINDS MAY BE DELAYED BY 2-3 HOURS FOR ZONE
655. HOWEVER...GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THESE ZONES AND THE RESULTING WIND WAVES WILL SPREAD
THROUGHOUT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SWELL HEIGHTS AROUND 7-9 FT. AFTER
THE SWELL DECREASES FOR A FEW DAYS...ANOTHER LARGER NW SWELL WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT/HALL
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 201729
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TIMING AND SKY COVER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST LAST NIGHT HAVE MAINLY DRIED UP LOOKING AT WEBCAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS IN LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR EAST
OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY EXCEPT FOR STRATOCUMULUS ALONG THE VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COASTS AND ACROSS THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. HIGHER CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING TODAY BUT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING MONTEREY COUNTY. EXPECT
MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE NEXT
PERIOD...OR AFTER 00Z (4PM PST) ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.

THE STORM TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WHICH IS CURRENTLY WEST
OF SAN FRANCISCO...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS TAKES THE LOW A LITTLE TOO FAR INLAND TO REALLY
TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE RESULT IN LESS OVERALL IMPACT FOR
SOUTHWEST CA. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CLIP OUR REGION WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS NEAR THE LOW CENTER TO OUR NORTH. THERE HAS BEEN A HISTORY
OF LIGHTNING NEAR THE LOW BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
AREA AS WELL. NONETHELESS...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY THIS EVENING THEN PUSH OUT OF LOS ANGELES
COUNTY BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE MOISTURE FROM THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE ON FRIDAY AND SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE REGION. A BETTER CHANCE OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOKS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

A NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...THEN AN OFFSHORE
FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. SANTA ANA WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN VEERS TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMED AGAIN FOR THE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD FOR NEXT WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS SOLUTIONS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SEEM MORE CONFIDENT IN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING INTO MAYBE FRIDAY...WHILE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS BRING AN INSIDE SLIDER TROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING. WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE BEHIND THE GFS SOLUTIONS FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST LEAN TOWARDS AND WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1240Z.

AT 1240Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS IN REGARDS
TO CIGS FROM LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. AFTER 16Z PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH -SHRA TIMING. BEST CHANCE AFTER 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CIGS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CONDS AFTER 00Z FOR
LA COUNTY INTERIOR AREAS AND INTERIOR MOUNTAINS FOR LA/VTU/SBA
COUNTIES.

KLAX AND KBUR...THERE IS 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER
00Z TO 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...20/900 AM PST...

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT INCREASING NW WINDS WILL BRING
SCA CONDITIONS TO THE TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES. THIS ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MODELS SHOW THE WINDS
INCREASING SAT INTO SUN WITH AT LEAST LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE
NW OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND BY SUN.

INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE INCREASING NW
WINDS WILL FILL INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650 AND 655 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER WINDS MAY BE DELAYED BY 2-3 HOURS FOR ZONE
655. HOWEVER...GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THESE ZONES AND THE RESULTING WIND WAVES WILL SPREAD
THROUGHOUT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SWELL HEIGHTS AROUND 7-9 FT. AFTER
THE SWELL DECREASES FOR A FEW DAYS...ANOTHER LARGER NW SWELL WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT/HALL
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 201245
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

A COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK TROUGH TODAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BREAK
DOWN LATER TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 40 N AND 130 W
DIGS SOUTH. SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN IN THE PACKAGE AS THE TROUGH
CENTER...TAKING AN INSIDE TRACK...REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA. A WEAK AND QUICK HITTING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COLDER AIR MASS WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL LOWER THE SNOW LEVELS FROM AROUND 12000 FEET THIS
MORNING TO NEAR 6500 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT. WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -23 DEGREES CELSIUS...A STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR TONIGHT...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS AS A NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STARTING TO BACK
OFF THE GUSTY WINDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
COULD DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE REGION. A BETTER CHANCE OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOKS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

A NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...THEN AN OFFSHORE
FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. SANTA ANA WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN VEERS TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMED AGAIN FOR THE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD FOR NEXT WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS SOLUTIONS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SEEM MORE CONFIDENT IN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING INTO MAYBE FRIDAY...WHILE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS BRING AN INSIDE SLIDER TROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING. WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE BEHIND THE GFS SOLUTIONS FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST LEAN TOWARDS AND WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1240Z.

AT 1240Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS IN REGARDS
TO CIGS FROM LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. AFTER 16Z PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH -SHRA TIMING. BEST CHANCE AFTER 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CIGS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CONDS AFTER 00Z FOR
LA COUNTY INTERIOR AREAS AND INTERIOR MOUNTAINS FOR LA/VTU/SBA
COUNTIES.

KLAX AND KBUR...THERE IS 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER
00Z TO 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...20/300 AM PST.

OUTER WATERS...THERE WILL BE INCREASING NW WINDS FROM POINT
ARGUELLO TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE A 70 PERCENT JUSTIFICATION FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
FOR THESE AREAS. ALTHOUGH THE RECENTLY ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE AREAS BETWEEN POINT ARGUELLO TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL
BE VALID FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AREAS TO
AROUND SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WILL REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY EXTENDED
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BY LATER SHIFTS. NORTHWEST WINDS FROM POINT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL AND OUT 60 MILES WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THERE COULD BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS AT TIMES. STRONGEST WESTERN PORTION.

INNER WATERS...MODELS ARE HINTING AT LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. NOT
CONFIDENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. WILL LET DAY SHIFT LOOK CLOSER. 50
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NEEDED FOR INNER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SWELL HEIGHTS AROUND 7-9 FT. AFTER
THE SWELL DECREASES FOR A FEW DAYS...ANOTHER LARGER NW SWELL WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 201245
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

A COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK TROUGH TODAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BREAK
DOWN LATER TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 40 N AND 130 W
DIGS SOUTH. SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN IN THE PACKAGE AS THE TROUGH
CENTER...TAKING AN INSIDE TRACK...REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA. A WEAK AND QUICK HITTING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COLDER AIR MASS WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL LOWER THE SNOW LEVELS FROM AROUND 12000 FEET THIS
MORNING TO NEAR 6500 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT. WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -23 DEGREES CELSIUS...A STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR TONIGHT...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS AS A NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STARTING TO BACK
OFF THE GUSTY WINDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
COULD DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE REGION. A BETTER CHANCE OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOKS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

A NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...THEN AN OFFSHORE
FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. SANTA ANA WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN VEERS TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMED AGAIN FOR THE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD FOR NEXT WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS SOLUTIONS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SEEM MORE CONFIDENT IN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING INTO MAYBE FRIDAY...WHILE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS BRING AN INSIDE SLIDER TROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING. WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE BEHIND THE GFS SOLUTIONS FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST LEAN TOWARDS AND WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1240Z.

AT 1240Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS IN REGARDS
TO CIGS FROM LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. AFTER 16Z PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH -SHRA TIMING. BEST CHANCE AFTER 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CIGS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CONDS AFTER 00Z FOR
LA COUNTY INTERIOR AREAS AND INTERIOR MOUNTAINS FOR LA/VTU/SBA
COUNTIES.

KLAX AND KBUR...THERE IS 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER
00Z TO 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...20/300 AM PST.

OUTER WATERS...THERE WILL BE INCREASING NW WINDS FROM POINT
ARGUELLO TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE A 70 PERCENT JUSTIFICATION FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
FOR THESE AREAS. ALTHOUGH THE RECENTLY ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE AREAS BETWEEN POINT ARGUELLO TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL
BE VALID FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AREAS TO
AROUND SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WILL REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY EXTENDED
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BY LATER SHIFTS. NORTHWEST WINDS FROM POINT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL AND OUT 60 MILES WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THERE COULD BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS AT TIMES. STRONGEST WESTERN PORTION.

INNER WATERS...MODELS ARE HINTING AT LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. NOT
CONFIDENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. WILL LET DAY SHIFT LOOK CLOSER. 50
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NEEDED FOR INNER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SWELL HEIGHTS AROUND 7-9 FT. AFTER
THE SWELL DECREASES FOR A FEW DAYS...ANOTHER LARGER NW SWELL WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 201130
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

A COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK TROUGH TODAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BREAK
DOWN LATER TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 40 N AND 130 W
DIGS SOUTH. SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN IN THE PACKAGE AS THE TROUGH
CENTER...TAKING AN INSIDE TRACK...REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA. A WEAK AND QUICK HITTING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COLDER AIR MASS WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL LOWER THE SNOW LEVELS FROM AROUND 12000 FEET THIS
MORNING TO NEAR 6500 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT. WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -23 DEGREES CELSIUS...A STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR TONIGHT...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS AS A NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STARTING TO BACK
OFF THE GUSTY WINDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
COULD DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE REGION. A BETTER CHANCE OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOKS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

A NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...THEN AN OFFSHORE
FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. SANTA ANA WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN VEERS TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMED AGAIN FOR THE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD FOR NEXT WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS SOLUTIONS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SEEM MORE CONFIDENT IN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING INTO MAYBE FRIDAY...WHILE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS BRING AN INSIDE SLIDER TROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING. WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE BEHIND THE GFS SOLUTIONS FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST LEAN TOWARDS AND WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/0630Z.

AT 0600Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z...AND
AGAIN AFTER 20Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z...AND AGAIN AFTER 20Z. CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000
FEET WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

KLAX AND KBUR...THERE IS 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...20/300 AM PST.

OUTER WATERS...THERE WILL BE INCREASING NW WINDS FROM POINT
ARGUELLO TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE A 70 PERCENT JUSTIFICATION FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
FOR THESE AREAS. ALTHOUGH THE RECENTLY ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE AREAS BETWEEN POINT ARGUELLO TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL
BE VALID FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AREAS TO
AROUND SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WILL REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY EXTENDED
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BY LATER SHIFTS. NORTHWEST WINDS FROM POINT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL AND OUT 60 MILES WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THERE COULD BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS AT TIMES. STRONGEST WESTERN PORTION.

INNER WATERS...MODELS ARE HINTING AT LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. NOT
CONFIDENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. WILL LET DAY SHIFT LOOK CLOSER. 50
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NEEDED FOR INNER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SWELL HEIGHTS AROUND 7-9 FT. AFTER
THE SWELL DECREASES FOR A FEW DAYS...ANOTHER LARGER NW SWELL WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL/KAPLAN
MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 201130
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

A COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK TROUGH TODAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BREAK
DOWN LATER TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 40 N AND 130 W
DIGS SOUTH. SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN IN THE PACKAGE AS THE TROUGH
CENTER...TAKING AN INSIDE TRACK...REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA. A WEAK AND QUICK HITTING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COLDER AIR MASS WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL LOWER THE SNOW LEVELS FROM AROUND 12000 FEET THIS
MORNING TO NEAR 6500 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT. WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -23 DEGREES CELSIUS...A STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR TONIGHT...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS AS A NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STARTING TO BACK
OFF THE GUSTY WINDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
COULD DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE REGION. A BETTER CHANCE OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOKS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

A NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...THEN AN OFFSHORE
FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. SANTA ANA WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN VEERS TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMED AGAIN FOR THE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD FOR NEXT WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS SOLUTIONS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SEEM MORE CONFIDENT IN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING INTO MAYBE FRIDAY...WHILE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS BRING AN INSIDE SLIDER TROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING. WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE BEHIND THE GFS SOLUTIONS FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST LEAN TOWARDS AND WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/0630Z.

AT 0600Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z...AND
AGAIN AFTER 20Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z...AND AGAIN AFTER 20Z. CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000
FEET WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

KLAX AND KBUR...THERE IS 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...20/300 AM PST.

OUTER WATERS...THERE WILL BE INCREASING NW WINDS FROM POINT
ARGUELLO TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE A 70 PERCENT JUSTIFICATION FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
FOR THESE AREAS. ALTHOUGH THE RECENTLY ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE AREAS BETWEEN POINT ARGUELLO TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL
BE VALID FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AREAS TO
AROUND SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WILL REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY EXTENDED
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BY LATER SHIFTS. NORTHWEST WINDS FROM POINT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL AND OUT 60 MILES WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THERE COULD BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS AT TIMES. STRONGEST WESTERN PORTION.

INNER WATERS...MODELS ARE HINTING AT LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. NOT
CONFIDENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. WILL LET DAY SHIFT LOOK CLOSER. 50
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NEEDED FOR INNER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS.

A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SWELL HEIGHTS AROUND 7-9 FT. AFTER
THE SWELL DECREASES FOR A FEW DAYS...ANOTHER LARGER NW SWELL WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL/KAPLAN
MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






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