Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS66 KLOX 262259 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH
INCREASING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC COMBINED WITH WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW HAS BROUGHT A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TODAY IN WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS
EVENING. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE
SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS
LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE
LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY WHERE
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SANTA ANA WINDS THEN DESCENDING INTO THE VALLEYS
AND COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PROJECTED
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAGGETT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...FORECASTED TO BE AROUND -3.5 TO -4 MB BY MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THE UPPER LEVEL WIND
SUPPORT...WITH 850 MB WINDS NOW PROJECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55
KNOTS ACROSS TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS IN LA COUNTY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY...
WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WILL
GENERALLY SEE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH. SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS.
WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90
DEGREES ON MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW
HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED
FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE
SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

UPPER LEVEL OFFSHORE WIND SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN JUST SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. IN
FACT...SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER ON TUESDAY AS
COMPARED TO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
MOST AREAS SHOULD THEN COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD
INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2300Z...

AT 2226Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 2300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW...ALL SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING..GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AS WELL AS LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IN THE
VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHEAST WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AT KOXR AS WELL AS
KWJF/KPMD. FOR KBUR/KVNY...LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY
08Z-22Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS 12Z-22Z DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE LIKELY 08Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 262259 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH
INCREASING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC COMBINED WITH WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW HAS BROUGHT A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TODAY IN WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS
EVENING. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE
SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS
LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE
LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY WHERE
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SANTA ANA WINDS THEN DESCENDING INTO THE VALLEYS
AND COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PROJECTED
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAGGETT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...FORECASTED TO BE AROUND -3.5 TO -4 MB BY MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THE UPPER LEVEL WIND
SUPPORT...WITH 850 MB WINDS NOW PROJECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55
KNOTS ACROSS TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS IN LA COUNTY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY...
WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WILL
GENERALLY SEE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH. SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS.
WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90
DEGREES ON MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW
HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED
FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE
SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

UPPER LEVEL OFFSHORE WIND SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN JUST SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. IN
FACT...SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER ON TUESDAY AS
COMPARED TO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
MOST AREAS SHOULD THEN COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD
INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2300Z...

AT 2226Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 2300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW...ALL SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING..GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AS WELL AS LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IN THE
VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHEAST WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AT KOXR AS WELL AS
KWJF/KPMD. FOR KBUR/KVNY...LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY
08Z-22Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS 12Z-22Z DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE LIKELY 08Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 262259 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH
INCREASING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC COMBINED WITH WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW HAS BROUGHT A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TODAY IN WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS
EVENING. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE
SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS
LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE
LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY WHERE
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SANTA ANA WINDS THEN DESCENDING INTO THE VALLEYS
AND COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PROJECTED
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAGGETT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...FORECASTED TO BE AROUND -3.5 TO -4 MB BY MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THE UPPER LEVEL WIND
SUPPORT...WITH 850 MB WINDS NOW PROJECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55
KNOTS ACROSS TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS IN LA COUNTY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY...
WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WILL
GENERALLY SEE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH. SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS.
WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90
DEGREES ON MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW
HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED
FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE
SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

UPPER LEVEL OFFSHORE WIND SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN JUST SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. IN
FACT...SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER ON TUESDAY AS
COMPARED TO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
MOST AREAS SHOULD THEN COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD
INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2300Z...

AT 2226Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 2300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW...ALL SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING..GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AS WELL AS LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IN THE
VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHEAST WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AT KOXR AS WELL AS
KWJF/KPMD. FOR KBUR/KVNY...LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY
08Z-22Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS 12Z-22Z DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE LIKELY 08Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 262120
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH
INCREASING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC COMBINED WITH WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW HAS BROUGHT A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TODAY IN WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS
EVENING. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE
SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS
LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE
LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY WHERE
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SANTA ANA WINDS THEN DESCENDING INTO THE VALLEYS
AND COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PROJECTED
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAGGETT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...FORECASTED TO BE AROUND -3.5 TO -4 MB BY MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THE UPPER LEVEL WIND
SUPPORT...WITH 850 MB WINDS NOW PROJECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55
KNOTS ACROSS TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS IN LA COUNTY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY...
WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WILL
GENERALLY SEE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH. SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS.
WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90
DEGREES ON MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW
HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED
FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE
SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

UPPER LEVEL OFFSHORE WIND SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN JUST SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. IN
FACT...SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER ON TUESDAY AS
COMPARED TO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
MOST AREAS SHOULD THEN COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD
INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST AND
BUILD OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 27/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 27/19Z. MIXED
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
27/04Z THEN WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN
27/04-27/19Z AND WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE GRADIENT AFTER 27/19Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1605Z IS 219 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 915 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 16 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE
LOW LEVEL WINDS 04014KT APPROXIMATELY 1.5KFT BETWEEN 27/10-27/15Z.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE LOW LEVEL WINDS 03025KT APPROXIMATELY
1.9KT AFTER 27/08Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



















000
FXUS66 KLOX 262120
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH
INCREASING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC COMBINED WITH WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW HAS BROUGHT A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TODAY IN WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS
EVENING. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE
SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS
LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE
LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY WHERE
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SANTA ANA WINDS THEN DESCENDING INTO THE VALLEYS
AND COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PROJECTED
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAGGETT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...FORECASTED TO BE AROUND -3.5 TO -4 MB BY MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THE UPPER LEVEL WIND
SUPPORT...WITH 850 MB WINDS NOW PROJECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55
KNOTS ACROSS TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS IN LA COUNTY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY...
WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WILL
GENERALLY SEE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH. SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS.
WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90
DEGREES ON MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW
HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED
FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE
SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

UPPER LEVEL OFFSHORE WIND SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN JUST SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. IN
FACT...SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER ON TUESDAY AS
COMPARED TO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
MOST AREAS SHOULD THEN COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD
INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST AND
BUILD OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 27/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 27/19Z. MIXED
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
27/04Z THEN WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN
27/04-27/19Z AND WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE GRADIENT AFTER 27/19Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1605Z IS 219 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 915 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 16 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE
LOW LEVEL WINDS 04014KT APPROXIMATELY 1.5KFT BETWEEN 27/10-27/15Z.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE LOW LEVEL WINDS 03025KT APPROXIMATELY
1.9KT AFTER 27/08Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




















000
FXUS66 KLOX 261751
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THIS HIGH AND OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK.
BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH AN
INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL BRING WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GENERATING SOME CLOUDS ON THE NORTH SLOPES NEAR THE
GRAPEVINE AS WELL AS THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS LINGER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE DISTRICT...BUT THE TRENDS ARE
DOWN AND CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 10 AM. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TODAY
IN WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAVE WIND ADVISORY POSTED
FOR TONIGHT FOR SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS...WITH
MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH. WILL ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERLY WIND PUSH THIS EVENING FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM
THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY.

THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SANTA ANA WINDS THEN DESCENDING INTO THE VALLEYS
AND COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PROJECTED
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAGGETT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...FORECASTED TO BE AROUND -3.5 TO -4 MB BY MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THE UPPER LEVEL WIND
SUPPORT...WITH 850 MB WINDS NOW PROJECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55
KNOTS ACROSS TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS IN LA COUNTY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...SHOULD BE A WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY EVENT FOR LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTIES. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 MPH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

JUST A LITTLE BIT WEAKER IN ALL REGARDS TUESDAY. LESS OFFSHORE
FLOW...LESS RIDGING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
EXCITEMENT LEVELS LOW FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SLOWLY DEVELOPING TROF AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL TURN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY CONFINED TO
THE LONG BEACH TORRANCE AREA...THE A LITTLE MORE THURSDAY. IT WILL
WILL TAKE TO FRIDAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS PATTERN TO FULLY
DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COASTS AND INTO MOST OF THE VLYS. THIS
CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL SOME
EACH DAY REACHING NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST AND
BUILD OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 27/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 27/19Z. MIXED
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
27/04Z THEN WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN
27/04-27/19Z AND WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE GRADIENT AFTER 27/19Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1605Z IS 219 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 915 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 16 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE
LOW LEVEL WINDS 04014KT APPROXIMATLY 1.5KFT BETWEEN 27/10-27/15Z.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PRESIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE LOW LEVEL WINDS 03025KT APPROXIMATELY
1.9KT AFTER 27/08Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO
13 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA
AS THE WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL
ORIGINATING FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/RORKE
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 261751
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THIS HIGH AND OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK.
BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH AN
INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL BRING WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GENERATING SOME CLOUDS ON THE NORTH SLOPES NEAR THE
GRAPEVINE AS WELL AS THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS LINGER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE DISTRICT...BUT THE TRENDS ARE
DOWN AND CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 10 AM. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TODAY
IN WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAVE WIND ADVISORY POSTED
FOR TONIGHT FOR SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS...WITH
MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH. WILL ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERLY WIND PUSH THIS EVENING FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM
THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY.

THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SANTA ANA WINDS THEN DESCENDING INTO THE VALLEYS
AND COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PROJECTED
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAGGETT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...FORECASTED TO BE AROUND -3.5 TO -4 MB BY MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THE UPPER LEVEL WIND
SUPPORT...WITH 850 MB WINDS NOW PROJECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55
KNOTS ACROSS TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS IN LA COUNTY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...SHOULD BE A WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY EVENT FOR LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTIES. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 MPH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

JUST A LITTLE BIT WEAKER IN ALL REGARDS TUESDAY. LESS OFFSHORE
FLOW...LESS RIDGING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
EXCITEMENT LEVELS LOW FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SLOWLY DEVELOPING TROF AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL TURN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY CONFINED TO
THE LONG BEACH TORRANCE AREA...THE A LITTLE MORE THURSDAY. IT WILL
WILL TAKE TO FRIDAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS PATTERN TO FULLY
DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COASTS AND INTO MOST OF THE VLYS. THIS
CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL SOME
EACH DAY REACHING NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST AND
BUILD OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 27/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 27/19Z. MIXED
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
27/04Z THEN WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN
27/04-27/19Z AND WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE GRADIENT AFTER 27/19Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1605Z IS 219 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 915 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 16 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE
LOW LEVEL WINDS 04014KT APPROXIMATLY 1.5KFT BETWEEN 27/10-27/15Z.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PRESIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE LOW LEVEL WINDS 03025KT APPROXIMATELY
1.9KT AFTER 27/08Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO
13 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA
AS THE WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL
ORIGINATING FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/RORKE
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

















000
FXUS66 KLOX 261751
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THIS HIGH AND OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK.
BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH AN
INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL BRING WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GENERATING SOME CLOUDS ON THE NORTH SLOPES NEAR THE
GRAPEVINE AS WELL AS THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS LINGER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE DISTRICT...BUT THE TRENDS ARE
DOWN AND CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 10 AM. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TODAY
IN WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAVE WIND ADVISORY POSTED
FOR TONIGHT FOR SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS...WITH
MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH. WILL ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERLY WIND PUSH THIS EVENING FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM
THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY.

THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SANTA ANA WINDS THEN DESCENDING INTO THE VALLEYS
AND COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PROJECTED
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAGGETT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...FORECASTED TO BE AROUND -3.5 TO -4 MB BY MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THE UPPER LEVEL WIND
SUPPORT...WITH 850 MB WINDS NOW PROJECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55
KNOTS ACROSS TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS IN LA COUNTY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...SHOULD BE A WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY EVENT FOR LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTIES. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 MPH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

JUST A LITTLE BIT WEAKER IN ALL REGARDS TUESDAY. LESS OFFSHORE
FLOW...LESS RIDGING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
EXCITEMENT LEVELS LOW FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SLOWLY DEVELOPING TROF AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL TURN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY CONFINED TO
THE LONG BEACH TORRANCE AREA...THE A LITTLE MORE THURSDAY. IT WILL
WILL TAKE TO FRIDAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS PATTERN TO FULLY
DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COASTS AND INTO MOST OF THE VLYS. THIS
CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL SOME
EACH DAY REACHING NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST AND
BUILD OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 27/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 27/19Z. MIXED
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
27/04Z THEN WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN
27/04-27/19Z AND WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE GRADIENT AFTER 27/19Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1605Z IS 219 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 915 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 16 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE
LOW LEVEL WINDS 04014KT APPROXIMATLY 1.5KFT BETWEEN 27/10-27/15Z.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PRESIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE LOW LEVEL WINDS 03025KT APPROXIMATELY
1.9KT AFTER 27/08Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO
13 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA
AS THE WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL
ORIGINATING FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/RORKE
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

















000
FXUS66 KLOX 261751
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THIS HIGH AND OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK.
BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH AN
INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL BRING WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GENERATING SOME CLOUDS ON THE NORTH SLOPES NEAR THE
GRAPEVINE AS WELL AS THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS LINGER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE DISTRICT...BUT THE TRENDS ARE
DOWN AND CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 10 AM. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TODAY
IN WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAVE WIND ADVISORY POSTED
FOR TONIGHT FOR SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS...WITH
MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH. WILL ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERLY WIND PUSH THIS EVENING FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM
THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY.

THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SANTA ANA WINDS THEN DESCENDING INTO THE VALLEYS
AND COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PROJECTED
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAGGETT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...FORECASTED TO BE AROUND -3.5 TO -4 MB BY MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THE UPPER LEVEL WIND
SUPPORT...WITH 850 MB WINDS NOW PROJECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55
KNOTS ACROSS TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS IN LA COUNTY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...SHOULD BE A WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY EVENT FOR LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTIES. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 MPH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

JUST A LITTLE BIT WEAKER IN ALL REGARDS TUESDAY. LESS OFFSHORE
FLOW...LESS RIDGING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
EXCITEMENT LEVELS LOW FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SLOWLY DEVELOPING TROF AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL TURN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY CONFINED TO
THE LONG BEACH TORRANCE AREA...THE A LITTLE MORE THURSDAY. IT WILL
WILL TAKE TO FRIDAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS PATTERN TO FULLY
DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COASTS AND INTO MOST OF THE VLYS. THIS
CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL SOME
EACH DAY REACHING NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST AND
BUILD OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 27/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 27/19Z. MIXED
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
27/04Z THEN WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN
27/04-27/19Z AND WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE GRADIENT AFTER 27/19Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1605Z IS 219 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 915 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 16 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE
LOW LEVEL WINDS 04014KT APPROXIMATLY 1.5KFT BETWEEN 27/10-27/15Z.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PRESIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE LOW LEVEL WINDS 03025KT APPROXIMATELY
1.9KT AFTER 27/08Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO
13 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA
AS THE WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL
ORIGINATING FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/RORKE
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 261732
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1015 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THIS HIGH AND OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK.
BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH AN
INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL BRING WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GENERATING
SOME CLOUDS ON THE NORTH SLOPES NEAR THE GRAPEVINE AS WELL AS THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LINGER THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE DISTRICT...BUT THE TRENDS ARE DOWN AND CURRENT ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TODAY IN WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANOTHER
SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS EVENING.
ALREADY HAVE WIND ADVISORY POSTED FOR TONIGHT FOR SBA SOUTH COAST AND
SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WILL ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERLY WIND PUSH THIS EVENING FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR
EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS INTO THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY.

THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SANTA ANA WINDS THEN DESCENDING INTO THE VALLEYS
AND COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PROJECTED OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAGGETT IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...FORECASTED
TO BE AROUND -3.5 TO -4 MB BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE
TO RAMP UP THE UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT...WITH 850 MB WINDS NOW PROJECTED
TO BE AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS IN LA
COUNTY. WITH THIS IN MIND...SHOULD BE A WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY EVENT
FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING
WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SURGE OF
WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 MPH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

JUST A LITTLE BIT WEAKER IN ALL REGARDS TUESDAY. LESS OFFSHORE
FLOW...LESS RIDGING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
EXCITEMENT LEVELS LOW FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SLOWLY DEVELOPING TROF AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL TURN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY CONFINED TO
THE LONG BEACH TORRANCE AREA...THE A LITTLE MORE THURSDAY. IT WILL
WILL TAKE TO FRIDAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS PATTERN TO FULLY
DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COASTS AND INTO MOST OF THE VLYS. THIS
CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL SOME
EACH DAY REACHING NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z.

AT 0840Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED WITH A DEPTH OF
1050 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF FIFTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS AT THE TOP.

OVERALL... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS.  PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP WHILE WINDS HAVE EASED OVERNIGHT... PRIMARILY
AT SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY SITES.  ELEVATED WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD
WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW MORNING THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOW THIS MORNING THEN BECOME BREEZY AGAIN MIDDAY.  CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO
13 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA
AS THE WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL
ORIGINATING FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN
2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN
30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS
AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW
HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS WILL BRING
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ON MONDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS
ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 261732
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1015 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THIS HIGH AND OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK.
BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH AN
INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL BRING WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GENERATING
SOME CLOUDS ON THE NORTH SLOPES NEAR THE GRAPEVINE AS WELL AS THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LINGER THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE DISTRICT...BUT THE TRENDS ARE DOWN AND CURRENT ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TODAY IN WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANOTHER
SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS EVENING.
ALREADY HAVE WIND ADVISORY POSTED FOR TONIGHT FOR SBA SOUTH COAST AND
SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WILL ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERLY WIND PUSH THIS EVENING FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR
EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS INTO THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY.

THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SANTA ANA WINDS THEN DESCENDING INTO THE VALLEYS
AND COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PROJECTED OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAGGETT IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...FORECASTED
TO BE AROUND -3.5 TO -4 MB BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE
TO RAMP UP THE UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT...WITH 850 MB WINDS NOW PROJECTED
TO BE AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS IN LA
COUNTY. WITH THIS IN MIND...SHOULD BE A WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY EVENT
FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING
WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SURGE OF
WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 MPH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

JUST A LITTLE BIT WEAKER IN ALL REGARDS TUESDAY. LESS OFFSHORE
FLOW...LESS RIDGING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
EXCITEMENT LEVELS LOW FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SLOWLY DEVELOPING TROF AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL TURN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY CONFINED TO
THE LONG BEACH TORRANCE AREA...THE A LITTLE MORE THURSDAY. IT WILL
WILL TAKE TO FRIDAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS PATTERN TO FULLY
DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COASTS AND INTO MOST OF THE VLYS. THIS
CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL SOME
EACH DAY REACHING NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z.

AT 0840Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED WITH A DEPTH OF
1050 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF FIFTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS AT THE TOP.

OVERALL... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS.  PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP WHILE WINDS HAVE EASED OVERNIGHT... PRIMARILY
AT SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY SITES.  ELEVATED WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD
WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW MORNING THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOW THIS MORNING THEN BECOME BREEZY AGAIN MIDDAY.  CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO
13 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA
AS THE WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL
ORIGINATING FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN
2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN
30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS
AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW
HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS WILL BRING
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ON MONDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS
ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 261732
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1015 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THIS HIGH AND OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK.
BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH AN
INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL BRING WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GENERATING
SOME CLOUDS ON THE NORTH SLOPES NEAR THE GRAPEVINE AS WELL AS THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LINGER THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE DISTRICT...BUT THE TRENDS ARE DOWN AND CURRENT ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TODAY IN WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANOTHER
SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS EVENING.
ALREADY HAVE WIND ADVISORY POSTED FOR TONIGHT FOR SBA SOUTH COAST AND
SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WILL ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERLY WIND PUSH THIS EVENING FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR
EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS INTO THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY.

THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SANTA ANA WINDS THEN DESCENDING INTO THE VALLEYS
AND COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PROJECTED OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAGGETT IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...FORECASTED
TO BE AROUND -3.5 TO -4 MB BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE
TO RAMP UP THE UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT...WITH 850 MB WINDS NOW PROJECTED
TO BE AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS IN LA
COUNTY. WITH THIS IN MIND...SHOULD BE A WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY EVENT
FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING
WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SURGE OF
WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 MPH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

JUST A LITTLE BIT WEAKER IN ALL REGARDS TUESDAY. LESS OFFSHORE
FLOW...LESS RIDGING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
EXCITEMENT LEVELS LOW FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SLOWLY DEVELOPING TROF AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL TURN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY CONFINED TO
THE LONG BEACH TORRANCE AREA...THE A LITTLE MORE THURSDAY. IT WILL
WILL TAKE TO FRIDAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS PATTERN TO FULLY
DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COASTS AND INTO MOST OF THE VLYS. THIS
CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL SOME
EACH DAY REACHING NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z.

AT 0840Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED WITH A DEPTH OF
1050 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF FIFTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS AT THE TOP.

OVERALL... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS.  PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP WHILE WINDS HAVE EASED OVERNIGHT... PRIMARILY
AT SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY SITES.  ELEVATED WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD
WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW MORNING THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOW THIS MORNING THEN BECOME BREEZY AGAIN MIDDAY.  CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO
13 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA
AS THE WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL
ORIGINATING FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN
2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN
30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS
AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW
HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS WILL BRING
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ON MONDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS
ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 261651
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THIS HIGH AND OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK.
BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH AN
INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL BRING WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GENERATING
SOME CLOUDS ON THE NORTH SLOPES NEAR THE GRAPEVINE AS WELL AS THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LINGER THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE DISTRICT...BUT THE TRENDS ARE DOWN AND CURRENT ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TODAY IN WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANOTHER
SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS EVENING.
ALREADY HAVE WIND ADVISORY POSTED FOR TONIGHT FOR SBA SOUTH COAST AND
SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WILL ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERLY WIND PUSH THIS EVENING FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR
EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS INTO THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY.

THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SANTA ANA WINDS THEN DESCENDING INTO THE VALLEYS
AND COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PROJECTED OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAGGETT IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...FORECASTED
TO BE AROUND -3.5 TO -4 MB BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE
TO RAMP UP THE UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT...WITH 850 MB WINDS NOW PROJECTED
TO BE AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS IN LA
COUNTY. WITH THIS IN MIND...SHOULD BE A WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY EVENT
FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING
WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SURGE OF
WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 MPH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

JUST A LITTLE BIT WEAKER IN ALL REGARDS TUESDAY. LESS OFFSHORE
FLOW...LESS RIDGING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
EXCITEMENT LEVELS LOW FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SLOWLY DEVELOPING TROF AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL TURN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY CONFINED TO
THE LONG BEACH TORRANCE AREA...THE A LITTLE MORE THURSDAY. IT WILL
WILL TAKE TO FRIDAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS PATTERN TO FULLY
DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COASTS AND INTO MOST OF THE VLYS. THIS
CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL SOME
EACH DAY REACHING NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z.

AT 0840Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED WITH A DEPTH OF
1050 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF FIFTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS AT THE TOP.

OVERALL... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS.  PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP WHILE WINDS HAVE EASED OVERNIGHT... PRIMARILY
AT SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY SITES.  ELEVATED WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD
WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW MORNING THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOW THIS MORNING THEN BECOME BREEZY AGAIN MIDDAY.  CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO
13 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA
AS THE WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL
ORIGINATING FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 261205
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THIS HIGH AND OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK.
BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH AN
INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
CALIFORNIA IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF LARGE EAST PAC RIDGE THAT EXTENDED
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A DECENT NW SFC GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN A
LARGE EAST PACK SFC HIGH AND YESTERDAYS SFC LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY
IN EASTERN AZ. THIS NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN LOW END WARNING LEVEL GUSTS
IN THE VTA AND LA MTNS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
IN THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE SAN FERNANDO VLY AND THE SANTA MONICA
MTNS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO PUSHING CLOUDS INTO
THE MTN NORTH SLOPES SOME OF WHICH ARE SPILLING INTO THE CUYAMA
VALLEY. LOW END WIND WARNING GUST TO 60 MPH WILL PERSIST IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKE FOLLOW
CLOSE ON THE HEALS OF THE WARNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTH WINDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF THE STATE. AN
ADVISORY LEVEL SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IS FORECAST MONDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES INTO NEVADA AND SETS UP A STRONG NW GRADIENT.
WHEN THE HIGH IS OVER MT SHASTA THIS EVENING THE NORTH GRADIENTS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SUNDOWNER WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP TODAY TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES WITH THE NORTH FLOW AN THE INCREASING HGTS.

MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH A DECENT SANTA ANA IN PLACE.
LOOK FOR 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE MTNS AND 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE
SANTA ANA WIND PRONE AREAS IN THE VLYS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW MAX TEMPS WILL SOAR. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF HIGHS IN THE
80S.

JUST A LITTLE BIT WEAKER IN ALL REGARDS TUESDAY. LESS OFFSHORE
FLOW...LESS RIDGING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
EXCITEMENT LEVELS LOW FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SLOWLY DEVELOPING TROF AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL TURN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY CONFINED TO
THE LONG BEACH TORRANCE AREA...THE A LITTLE MORE THURSDAY. IT WILL
WILL TAKE TO FRIDAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS PATTERN TO FULLY
DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COASTS AND INTO MOST OF THE VLYS. THIS
CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL SOME
EACH DAY REACHING NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z.

AT 0840Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED WITH A DEPTH OF
1050 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF FIFTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS AT THE TOP.

OVERALL... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS.  PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP WHILE WINDS HAVE EASED OVERNIGHT... PRIMARILY
AT SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY SITES.  ELEVATED WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD
WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW MORNING THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOW THIS MORNING THEN BECOME BREEZY AGAIN MIDDAY.  CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...26/300 AM

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WITH GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE INNER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET IN THE OUTER
WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE INNER WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS THEN SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 261205
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THIS HIGH AND OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK.
BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH AN
INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
CALIFORNIA IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF LARGE EAST PAC RIDGE THAT EXTENDED
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A DECENT NW SFC GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN A
LARGE EAST PACK SFC HIGH AND YESTERDAYS SFC LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY
IN EASTERN AZ. THIS NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN LOW END WARNING LEVEL GUSTS
IN THE VTA AND LA MTNS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
IN THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE SAN FERNANDO VLY AND THE SANTA MONICA
MTNS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO PUSHING CLOUDS INTO
THE MTN NORTH SLOPES SOME OF WHICH ARE SPILLING INTO THE CUYAMA
VALLEY. LOW END WIND WARNING GUST TO 60 MPH WILL PERSIST IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKE FOLLOW
CLOSE ON THE HEALS OF THE WARNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTH WINDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF THE STATE. AN
ADVISORY LEVEL SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IS FORECAST MONDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES INTO NEVADA AND SETS UP A STRONG NW GRADIENT.
WHEN THE HIGH IS OVER MT SHASTA THIS EVENING THE NORTH GRADIENTS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SUNDOWNER WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP TODAY TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES WITH THE NORTH FLOW AN THE INCREASING HGTS.

MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH A DECENT SANTA ANA IN PLACE.
LOOK FOR 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE MTNS AND 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE
SANTA ANA WIND PRONE AREAS IN THE VLYS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW MAX TEMPS WILL SOAR. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF HIGHS IN THE
80S.

JUST A LITTLE BIT WEAKER IN ALL REGARDS TUESDAY. LESS OFFSHORE
FLOW...LESS RIDGING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
EXCITEMENT LEVELS LOW FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SLOWLY DEVELOPING TROF AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL TURN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY CONFINED TO
THE LONG BEACH TORRANCE AREA...THE A LITTLE MORE THURSDAY. IT WILL
WILL TAKE TO FRIDAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS PATTERN TO FULLY
DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COASTS AND INTO MOST OF THE VLYS. THIS
CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL SOME
EACH DAY REACHING NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z.

AT 0840Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED WITH A DEPTH OF
1050 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF FIFTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS AT THE TOP.

OVERALL... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS.  PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP WHILE WINDS HAVE EASED OVERNIGHT... PRIMARILY
AT SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY SITES.  ELEVATED WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD
WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW MORNING THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOW THIS MORNING THEN BECOME BREEZY AGAIN MIDDAY.  CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...26/300 AM

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WITH GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE INNER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET IN THE OUTER
WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE INNER WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS THEN SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 261205
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THIS HIGH AND OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK.
BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH AN
INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
CALIFORNIA IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF LARGE EAST PAC RIDGE THAT EXTENDED
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A DECENT NW SFC GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN A
LARGE EAST PACK SFC HIGH AND YESTERDAYS SFC LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY
IN EASTERN AZ. THIS NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN LOW END WARNING LEVEL GUSTS
IN THE VTA AND LA MTNS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
IN THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE SAN FERNANDO VLY AND THE SANTA MONICA
MTNS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO PUSHING CLOUDS INTO
THE MTN NORTH SLOPES SOME OF WHICH ARE SPILLING INTO THE CUYAMA
VALLEY. LOW END WIND WARNING GUST TO 60 MPH WILL PERSIST IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKE FOLLOW
CLOSE ON THE HEALS OF THE WARNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTH WINDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF THE STATE. AN
ADVISORY LEVEL SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IS FORECAST MONDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES INTO NEVADA AND SETS UP A STRONG NW GRADIENT.
WHEN THE HIGH IS OVER MT SHASTA THIS EVENING THE NORTH GRADIENTS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SUNDOWNER WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP TODAY TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES WITH THE NORTH FLOW AN THE INCREASING HGTS.

MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH A DECENT SANTA ANA IN PLACE.
LOOK FOR 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE MTNS AND 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE
SANTA ANA WIND PRONE AREAS IN THE VLYS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW MAX TEMPS WILL SOAR. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF HIGHS IN THE
80S.

JUST A LITTLE BIT WEAKER IN ALL REGARDS TUESDAY. LESS OFFSHORE
FLOW...LESS RIDGING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
EXCITEMENT LEVELS LOW FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SLOWLY DEVELOPING TROF AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL TURN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY CONFINED TO
THE LONG BEACH TORRANCE AREA...THE A LITTLE MORE THURSDAY. IT WILL
WILL TAKE TO FRIDAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS PATTERN TO FULLY
DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COASTS AND INTO MOST OF THE VLYS. THIS
CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL SOME
EACH DAY REACHING NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z.

AT 0840Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED WITH A DEPTH OF
1050 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF FIFTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS AT THE TOP.

OVERALL... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS.  PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP WHILE WINDS HAVE EASED OVERNIGHT... PRIMARILY
AT SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY SITES.  ELEVATED WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD
WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW MORNING THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOW THIS MORNING THEN BECOME BREEZY AGAIN MIDDAY.  CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...26/300 AM

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WITH GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE INNER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET IN THE OUTER
WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE INNER WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS THEN SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 261018
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THIS HIGH AND OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK.
BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH AN
INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
CALIFORNIA IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF LARGE EAST PAC RIDGE THAT EXTENDED
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A DECENT NW SFC GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN A
LARGE EAST PACK SFC HIGH AND YESTERDAYS SFC LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY
IN EASTERN AZ. THIS NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN LOW END WARNING LEVEL GUSTS
IN THE VTA AND LA MTNS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
IN THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE SAN FERNANDO VLY AND THE SANTA MONICA
MTNS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO PUSHING CLOUDS INTO
THE MTN NORTH SLOPES SOME OF WHICH ARE SPILLING INTO THE CUYAMA
VALLEY. LOW END WIND WARNING GUST TO 60 MPH WILL PERSIST IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKE FOLLOW
CLOSE ON THE HEALS OF THE WARNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTH WINDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF THE STATE. AN
ADVISORY LEVEL SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IS FORECAST MONDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES INTO NEVADA AND SETS UP A STRONG NW GRADIENT.
WHEN THE HIGH IS OVER MT SHASTA THIS EVENING THE NORTH GRADIENTS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SUNDOWNER WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP TODAY TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES WITH THE NORTH FLOW AN THE INCREASING HGTS.

MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH A DECENT SANTA ANA IN PLACE.
LOOK FOR 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE MTNS AND 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE
SANTA ANA WIND PRONE AREAS IN THE VLYS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW MAX TEMPS WILL SOAR. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF HIGHS IN THE
80S.

JUST A LITTLE BIT WEAKER IN ALL REGARDS TUESDAY. LESS OFFSHORE
FLOW...LESS RIDGING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
EXCITEMENT LEVELS LOW FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SLOWLY DEVELOPING TROF AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL TURN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY CONFINED TO
THE LONG BEACH TORRANCE AREA...THE A LITTLE MORE THURSDAY. IT WILL
WILL TAKE TO FRIDAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS PATTERN TO FULLY
DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COASTS AND INTO MOST OF THE VLYS. THIS
CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL SOME
EACH DAY REACHING NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/06Z.

AT 0525Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES THEN AS WINDS EASE
OVERNIGHT PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP... PRIMARILY AT
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY SITES.  AT KSBA... LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 11Z DUE TO GUSTY NORTH CANYON WINDS IN THE
VICINITY. ELEVATED WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW
MORNING THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE AND
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW MIDDAY.  CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW MIDDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

26/300 AM

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WITH GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE INNER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET IN THE OUTER
WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE INNER WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS THEN SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 261018
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THIS HIGH AND OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK.
BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH AN
INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
CALIFORNIA IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF LARGE EAST PAC RIDGE THAT EXTENDED
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A DECENT NW SFC GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN A
LARGE EAST PACK SFC HIGH AND YESTERDAYS SFC LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY
IN EASTERN AZ. THIS NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN LOW END WARNING LEVEL GUSTS
IN THE VTA AND LA MTNS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
IN THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE SAN FERNANDO VLY AND THE SANTA MONICA
MTNS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO PUSHING CLOUDS INTO
THE MTN NORTH SLOPES SOME OF WHICH ARE SPILLING INTO THE CUYAMA
VALLEY. LOW END WIND WARNING GUST TO 60 MPH WILL PERSIST IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKE FOLLOW
CLOSE ON THE HEALS OF THE WARNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTH WINDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF THE STATE. AN
ADVISORY LEVEL SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IS FORECAST MONDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES INTO NEVADA AND SETS UP A STRONG NW GRADIENT.
WHEN THE HIGH IS OVER MT SHASTA THIS EVENING THE NORTH GRADIENTS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SUNDOWNER WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP TODAY TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES WITH THE NORTH FLOW AN THE INCREASING HGTS.

MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH A DECENT SANTA ANA IN PLACE.
LOOK FOR 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE MTNS AND 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE
SANTA ANA WIND PRONE AREAS IN THE VLYS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW MAX TEMPS WILL SOAR. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF HIGHS IN THE
80S.

JUST A LITTLE BIT WEAKER IN ALL REGARDS TUESDAY. LESS OFFSHORE
FLOW...LESS RIDGING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
EXCITEMENT LEVELS LOW FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SLOWLY DEVELOPING TROF AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL TURN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY CONFINED TO
THE LONG BEACH TORRANCE AREA...THE A LITTLE MORE THURSDAY. IT WILL
WILL TAKE TO FRIDAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS PATTERN TO FULLY
DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COASTS AND INTO MOST OF THE VLYS. THIS
CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL SOME
EACH DAY REACHING NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/06Z.

AT 0525Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES THEN AS WINDS EASE
OVERNIGHT PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP... PRIMARILY AT
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY SITES.  AT KSBA... LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 11Z DUE TO GUSTY NORTH CANYON WINDS IN THE
VICINITY. ELEVATED WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW
MORNING THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE AND
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW MIDDAY.  CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW MIDDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

26/300 AM

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WITH GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE INNER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET IN THE OUTER
WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE INNER WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS THEN SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 261018
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THIS HIGH AND OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK.
BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH AN
INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
CALIFORNIA IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF LARGE EAST PAC RIDGE THAT EXTENDED
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A DECENT NW SFC GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN A
LARGE EAST PACK SFC HIGH AND YESTERDAYS SFC LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY
IN EASTERN AZ. THIS NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN LOW END WARNING LEVEL GUSTS
IN THE VTA AND LA MTNS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
IN THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE SAN FERNANDO VLY AND THE SANTA MONICA
MTNS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO PUSHING CLOUDS INTO
THE MTN NORTH SLOPES SOME OF WHICH ARE SPILLING INTO THE CUYAMA
VALLEY. LOW END WIND WARNING GUST TO 60 MPH WILL PERSIST IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKE FOLLOW
CLOSE ON THE HEALS OF THE WARNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTH WINDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF THE STATE. AN
ADVISORY LEVEL SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IS FORECAST MONDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES INTO NEVADA AND SETS UP A STRONG NW GRADIENT.
WHEN THE HIGH IS OVER MT SHASTA THIS EVENING THE NORTH GRADIENTS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SUNDOWNER WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP TODAY TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES WITH THE NORTH FLOW AN THE INCREASING HGTS.

MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH A DECENT SANTA ANA IN PLACE.
LOOK FOR 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE MTNS AND 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE
SANTA ANA WIND PRONE AREAS IN THE VLYS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW MAX TEMPS WILL SOAR. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF HIGHS IN THE
80S.

JUST A LITTLE BIT WEAKER IN ALL REGARDS TUESDAY. LESS OFFSHORE
FLOW...LESS RIDGING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
EXCITEMENT LEVELS LOW FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SLOWLY DEVELOPING TROF AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL TURN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY CONFINED TO
THE LONG BEACH TORRANCE AREA...THE A LITTLE MORE THURSDAY. IT WILL
WILL TAKE TO FRIDAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS PATTERN TO FULLY
DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COASTS AND INTO MOST OF THE VLYS. THIS
CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL SOME
EACH DAY REACHING NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/06Z.

AT 0525Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES THEN AS WINDS EASE
OVERNIGHT PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP... PRIMARILY AT
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY SITES.  AT KSBA... LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 11Z DUE TO GUSTY NORTH CANYON WINDS IN THE
VICINITY. ELEVATED WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW
MORNING THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE AND
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW MIDDAY.  CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW MIDDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

26/300 AM

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WITH GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE INNER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET IN THE OUTER
WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE INNER WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS THEN SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 260605
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT...AND THEN
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH AND OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
MIDWEEK. BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND
WITH AN INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVED THRU THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF L.A.
COUNTY LATE TODAY WHICH LINGERED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE N MTN SLOPES WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LEFTOVER CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE N SLOPES.

GUSTY W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTED MANY PARTS OF THE
DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS TO ADVISORY
LEVELS CONTINUED EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS. THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 9 PM
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. GUSTY W WINDS IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WERE NOTED AS WELL..BUT WINDS NEVER REALLY GOT
AS STRONG AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...AND WILL LIKELY CANCEL THE HIGH
WIND WARNING AND POSSIBLY REPLACE WITH A WIND ADVISORY PRIOR TO 9 PM
THIS EVENING. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SBA S
COAST AND MTNS...WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY.
850 MB WINDS WILL TURN NW TO N AND INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING TO
45 KNOTS OR SO...AND THIS WILL BRING STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TO THE L.A./VTU MTNS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DESCEND TO LOWER ELEVATIONS AND CAUSE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING FOR THE SANTA CLARITA
VLY...SANTA MONICA MTNS AND SAN FERNANDO VLY...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
ARE ALSO IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER
MESSAGE FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND
ADVISORIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER SERN CA THIS EVENING WILL PUSH E INTO THE
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OFF THE
CA COAST THRU SUN...WITH A BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN CA SUN
NIGHT AND MON...WITH A N TO NE FLOW ALOFT FOR SRN CA. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN CA FOR TUE.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THE NORTHERLY
FLOW FOR SUN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT
THERE SHOULD BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ON THE N MTN
SLOPES.

WINDS WILL TURN NE AND BE GUSTY OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A.COUNTIES
LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY BELOW AND THRU THE
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED BY EARLY MON MORNING FOR THE SANTA MONICA MTNS...VTU COUNTY
VLYS...SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND THE  WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VLY. 850 MB
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KT OVER THE L.A./VTU MTNS...WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED THERE...POSSIBLY TO WARNING
LEVELS. A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS FOR LATER
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL DIMINISH MON
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE WEAKER OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION MON AND TUE WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

TEMPS OVER SWRN CA ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS ON SUN...AND TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ON MON AND
TUE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST VLYS
MON...AND REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE WARMEST VLYS ON TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF
ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER CLOUDS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
COASTAL AREAS...BUT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INLAND BY FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z.

AT 0525Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES THEN AS WINDS EASE
OVERNIGHT PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP... PRIMARILY AT
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY SITES.  AT KSBA... LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 11Z DUE TO GUSTY NORTH CANYON WINDS IN THE
VICINITY. ELEVATED WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW
MORNING THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE AND
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW MIDDAY.  CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW MIDDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...25/800 PM...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE WATERS THIS
EVENING...STRONGEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS WHERE GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE INNER WATERS WILL ALSO SEE
MODERATE TO STRONG GUSTS...AND THERE IS A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...PZZ650 AND PZZ655.

THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8
FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SUBSIDING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/GOMBERG
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 260605
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT...AND THEN
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH AND OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
MIDWEEK. BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND
WITH AN INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVED THRU THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF L.A.
COUNTY LATE TODAY WHICH LINGERED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE N MTN SLOPES WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LEFTOVER CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE N SLOPES.

GUSTY W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTED MANY PARTS OF THE
DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS TO ADVISORY
LEVELS CONTINUED EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS. THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 9 PM
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. GUSTY W WINDS IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WERE NOTED AS WELL..BUT WINDS NEVER REALLY GOT
AS STRONG AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...AND WILL LIKELY CANCEL THE HIGH
WIND WARNING AND POSSIBLY REPLACE WITH A WIND ADVISORY PRIOR TO 9 PM
THIS EVENING. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SBA S
COAST AND MTNS...WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY.
850 MB WINDS WILL TURN NW TO N AND INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING TO
45 KNOTS OR SO...AND THIS WILL BRING STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TO THE L.A./VTU MTNS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DESCEND TO LOWER ELEVATIONS AND CAUSE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING FOR THE SANTA CLARITA
VLY...SANTA MONICA MTNS AND SAN FERNANDO VLY...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
ARE ALSO IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER
MESSAGE FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND
ADVISORIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER SERN CA THIS EVENING WILL PUSH E INTO THE
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OFF THE
CA COAST THRU SUN...WITH A BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN CA SUN
NIGHT AND MON...WITH A N TO NE FLOW ALOFT FOR SRN CA. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN CA FOR TUE.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THE NORTHERLY
FLOW FOR SUN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT
THERE SHOULD BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ON THE N MTN
SLOPES.

WINDS WILL TURN NE AND BE GUSTY OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A.COUNTIES
LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY BELOW AND THRU THE
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED BY EARLY MON MORNING FOR THE SANTA MONICA MTNS...VTU COUNTY
VLYS...SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND THE  WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VLY. 850 MB
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KT OVER THE L.A./VTU MTNS...WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED THERE...POSSIBLY TO WARNING
LEVELS. A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS FOR LATER
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL DIMINISH MON
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE WEAKER OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION MON AND TUE WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

TEMPS OVER SWRN CA ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS ON SUN...AND TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ON MON AND
TUE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST VLYS
MON...AND REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE WARMEST VLYS ON TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF
ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER CLOUDS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
COASTAL AREAS...BUT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INLAND BY FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z.

AT 0525Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES THEN AS WINDS EASE
OVERNIGHT PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP... PRIMARILY AT
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY SITES.  AT KSBA... LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 11Z DUE TO GUSTY NORTH CANYON WINDS IN THE
VICINITY. ELEVATED WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW
MORNING THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE AND
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW MIDDAY.  CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW MIDDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...25/800 PM...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE WATERS THIS
EVENING...STRONGEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS WHERE GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE INNER WATERS WILL ALSO SEE
MODERATE TO STRONG GUSTS...AND THERE IS A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...PZZ650 AND PZZ655.

THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8
FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SUBSIDING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/GOMBERG
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 260605
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT...AND THEN
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH AND OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
MIDWEEK. BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND
WITH AN INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVED THRU THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF L.A.
COUNTY LATE TODAY WHICH LINGERED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE N MTN SLOPES WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LEFTOVER CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE N SLOPES.

GUSTY W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTED MANY PARTS OF THE
DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS TO ADVISORY
LEVELS CONTINUED EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS. THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 9 PM
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. GUSTY W WINDS IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WERE NOTED AS WELL..BUT WINDS NEVER REALLY GOT
AS STRONG AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...AND WILL LIKELY CANCEL THE HIGH
WIND WARNING AND POSSIBLY REPLACE WITH A WIND ADVISORY PRIOR TO 9 PM
THIS EVENING. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SBA S
COAST AND MTNS...WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY.
850 MB WINDS WILL TURN NW TO N AND INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING TO
45 KNOTS OR SO...AND THIS WILL BRING STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TO THE L.A./VTU MTNS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DESCEND TO LOWER ELEVATIONS AND CAUSE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING FOR THE SANTA CLARITA
VLY...SANTA MONICA MTNS AND SAN FERNANDO VLY...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
ARE ALSO IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER
MESSAGE FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND
ADVISORIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER SERN CA THIS EVENING WILL PUSH E INTO THE
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OFF THE
CA COAST THRU SUN...WITH A BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN CA SUN
NIGHT AND MON...WITH A N TO NE FLOW ALOFT FOR SRN CA. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN CA FOR TUE.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THE NORTHERLY
FLOW FOR SUN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT
THERE SHOULD BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ON THE N MTN
SLOPES.

WINDS WILL TURN NE AND BE GUSTY OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A.COUNTIES
LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY BELOW AND THRU THE
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED BY EARLY MON MORNING FOR THE SANTA MONICA MTNS...VTU COUNTY
VLYS...SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND THE  WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VLY. 850 MB
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KT OVER THE L.A./VTU MTNS...WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED THERE...POSSIBLY TO WARNING
LEVELS. A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS FOR LATER
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL DIMINISH MON
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE WEAKER OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION MON AND TUE WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

TEMPS OVER SWRN CA ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS ON SUN...AND TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ON MON AND
TUE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST VLYS
MON...AND REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE WARMEST VLYS ON TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF
ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER CLOUDS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
COASTAL AREAS...BUT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INLAND BY FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z.

AT 0525Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES THEN AS WINDS EASE
OVERNIGHT PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP... PRIMARILY AT
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY SITES.  AT KSBA... LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 11Z DUE TO GUSTY NORTH CANYON WINDS IN THE
VICINITY. ELEVATED WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW
MORNING THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE AND
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW MIDDAY.  CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW MIDDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...25/800 PM...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE WATERS THIS
EVENING...STRONGEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS WHERE GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE INNER WATERS WILL ALSO SEE
MODERATE TO STRONG GUSTS...AND THERE IS A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...PZZ650 AND PZZ655.

THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8
FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SUBSIDING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/GOMBERG
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 260605
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT...AND THEN
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH AND OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
MIDWEEK. BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND
WITH AN INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVED THRU THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF L.A.
COUNTY LATE TODAY WHICH LINGERED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE N MTN SLOPES WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LEFTOVER CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE N SLOPES.

GUSTY W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTED MANY PARTS OF THE
DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS TO ADVISORY
LEVELS CONTINUED EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS. THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 9 PM
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. GUSTY W WINDS IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WERE NOTED AS WELL..BUT WINDS NEVER REALLY GOT
AS STRONG AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...AND WILL LIKELY CANCEL THE HIGH
WIND WARNING AND POSSIBLY REPLACE WITH A WIND ADVISORY PRIOR TO 9 PM
THIS EVENING. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SBA S
COAST AND MTNS...WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY.
850 MB WINDS WILL TURN NW TO N AND INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING TO
45 KNOTS OR SO...AND THIS WILL BRING STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TO THE L.A./VTU MTNS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DESCEND TO LOWER ELEVATIONS AND CAUSE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING FOR THE SANTA CLARITA
VLY...SANTA MONICA MTNS AND SAN FERNANDO VLY...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
ARE ALSO IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER
MESSAGE FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND
ADVISORIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER SERN CA THIS EVENING WILL PUSH E INTO THE
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OFF THE
CA COAST THRU SUN...WITH A BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN CA SUN
NIGHT AND MON...WITH A N TO NE FLOW ALOFT FOR SRN CA. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN CA FOR TUE.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THE NORTHERLY
FLOW FOR SUN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT
THERE SHOULD BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ON THE N MTN
SLOPES.

WINDS WILL TURN NE AND BE GUSTY OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A.COUNTIES
LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY BELOW AND THRU THE
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED BY EARLY MON MORNING FOR THE SANTA MONICA MTNS...VTU COUNTY
VLYS...SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND THE  WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VLY. 850 MB
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KT OVER THE L.A./VTU MTNS...WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED THERE...POSSIBLY TO WARNING
LEVELS. A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS FOR LATER
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL DIMINISH MON
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE WEAKER OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION MON AND TUE WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

TEMPS OVER SWRN CA ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS ON SUN...AND TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ON MON AND
TUE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST VLYS
MON...AND REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE WARMEST VLYS ON TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF
ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER CLOUDS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
COASTAL AREAS...BUT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INLAND BY FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z.

AT 0525Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES THEN AS WINDS EASE
OVERNIGHT PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP... PRIMARILY AT
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY SITES.  AT KSBA... LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 11Z DUE TO GUSTY NORTH CANYON WINDS IN THE
VICINITY. ELEVATED WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW
MORNING THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE AND
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW MIDDAY.  CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW MIDDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...25/800 PM...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE WATERS THIS
EVENING...STRONGEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS WHERE GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE INNER WATERS WILL ALSO SEE
MODERATE TO STRONG GUSTS...AND THERE IS A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...PZZ650 AND PZZ655.

THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8
FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SUBSIDING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/GOMBERG
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 260332
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT...AND THEN
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH AND OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
MIDWEEK. BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND
WITH AN INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVED THRU THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF L.A.
COUNTY LATE TODAY WHICH LINGERED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE N MTN SLOPES WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LEFTOVER CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE N SLOPES.

GUSTY W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTED MANY PARTS OF THE
DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS TO ADVISORY
LEVELS CONTINUED EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS. THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 9 PM
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. GUSTY W WINDS IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WERE NOTED AS WELL..BUT WINDS NEVER REALLY GOT
AS STRONG AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...AND WILL LIKELY CANCEL THE HIGH
WIND WARNING AND POSSIBLY REPLACE WITH A WIND ADVISORY PRIOR TO 9 PM
THIS EVENING. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SBA S
COAST AND MTNS...WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY.
850 MB WINDS WILL TURN NW TO N AND INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING TO
45 KNOTS OR SO...AND THIS WILL BRING STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TO THE L.A./VTU MTNS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DESCEND TO LOWER ELEVATIONS AND CAUSE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING FOR THE SANTA CLARITA
VLY...SANTA MONICA MTNS AND SAN FERNANDO VLY...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
ARE ALSO IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER
MESSAGE FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND
ADVISORIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER SERN CA THIS EVENING WILL PUSH E INTO THE
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OFF THE
CA COAST THRU SUN...WITH A BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN CA SUN
NIGHT AND MON...WITH A N TO NE FLOW ALOFT FOR SRN CA. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN CA FOR TUE.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THE NORTHERLY
FLOW FOR SUN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT
THERE SHOULD BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ON THE N MTN
SLOPES.

WINDS WILL TURN NE AND BE GUSTY OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A.COUNTIES
LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY BELOW AND THRU THE
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED BY EARLY MON MORNING FOR THE SANTA MONICA MTNS...VTU COUNTY
VLYS...SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND THE  WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VLY. 850 MB
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KT OVER THE L.A./VTU MTNS...WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED THERE...POSSIBLY TO WARNING
LEVELS. A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS FOR LATER
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL DIMINISH MON
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE WEAKER OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION MON AND TUE WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

TEMPS OVER SWRN CA ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS ON SUN...AND TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ON MON AND
TUE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST VLYS
MON...AND REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE WARMEST VLYS ON TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF
ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER CLOUDS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
COASTAL AREAS...BUT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INLAND BY FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0020Z.

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS...ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN FOR SEVERAL OF THE COAST AND VLY AIRFIELDS...WITH THE
TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS ONE TO TWO HOURS. HI CONFIDENCE DRIER AIR
MOVING IN TONIGHT AND SUN WILL CLEAR TO THE AIRFIELDS TO
VFR...STARTING TONIGHT FOR AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION...AND
ELSEWHERE EARLY SUN MORNING. HI CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAFS FOR KWJF AND
KPMD WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. GUSTY W TO NW WINDS FOR COASTAL
AIRFIELDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. AT KSBA...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED 02Z-11Z DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. GUSTY
W WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF...ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR WHICH MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS ONE TO TWO HOURS. ONCE CLEARING TAKES PLACE...HI
CONFIDENCE DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
AIRFIELD THRU SUN EVENING. GUSTY W WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF...ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR WHICH MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS ONE TO TWO HOURS. ONCE CLEARING TAKES PLACE AROUND
05Z...HI CONFIDENCE DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...25/800 PM...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE WATERS THIS
EVENING...STRONGEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS WHERE GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE INNER WATERS WILL ALSO SEE
MODERATE TO STRONG GUSTS...AND THERE IS A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...PZZ650 AND PZZ655.

THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8
FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SUBSIDING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/GOMBERG
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 260332
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT...AND THEN
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH AND OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
MIDWEEK. BUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND
WITH AN INCREASING MARINE LAYER AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVED THRU THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF L.A.
COUNTY LATE TODAY WHICH LINGERED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE N MTN SLOPES WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LEFTOVER CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE N SLOPES.

GUSTY W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTED MANY PARTS OF THE
DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS TO ADVISORY
LEVELS CONTINUED EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS. THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 9 PM
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. GUSTY W WINDS IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WERE NOTED AS WELL..BUT WINDS NEVER REALLY GOT
AS STRONG AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...AND WILL LIKELY CANCEL THE HIGH
WIND WARNING AND POSSIBLY REPLACE WITH A WIND ADVISORY PRIOR TO 9 PM
THIS EVENING. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SBA S
COAST AND MTNS...WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY.
850 MB WINDS WILL TURN NW TO N AND INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING TO
45 KNOTS OR SO...AND THIS WILL BRING STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TO THE L.A./VTU MTNS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DESCEND TO LOWER ELEVATIONS AND CAUSE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING FOR THE SANTA CLARITA
VLY...SANTA MONICA MTNS AND SAN FERNANDO VLY...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
ARE ALSO IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER
MESSAGE FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND
ADVISORIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER SERN CA THIS EVENING WILL PUSH E INTO THE
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OFF THE
CA COAST THRU SUN...WITH A BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN CA SUN
NIGHT AND MON...WITH A N TO NE FLOW ALOFT FOR SRN CA. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN CA FOR TUE.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THE NORTHERLY
FLOW FOR SUN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT
THERE SHOULD BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ON THE N MTN
SLOPES.

WINDS WILL TURN NE AND BE GUSTY OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A.COUNTIES
LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY BELOW AND THRU THE
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED BY EARLY MON MORNING FOR THE SANTA MONICA MTNS...VTU COUNTY
VLYS...SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND THE  WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VLY. 850 MB
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KT OVER THE L.A./VTU MTNS...WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED THERE...POSSIBLY TO WARNING
LEVELS. A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS FOR LATER
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL DIMINISH MON
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE WEAKER OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION MON AND TUE WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

TEMPS OVER SWRN CA ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS ON SUN...AND TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ON MON AND
TUE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST VLYS
MON...AND REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE WARMEST VLYS ON TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF
ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER CLOUDS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
COASTAL AREAS...BUT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INLAND BY FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0020Z.

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS...ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN FOR SEVERAL OF THE COAST AND VLY AIRFIELDS...WITH THE
TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS ONE TO TWO HOURS. HI CONFIDENCE DRIER AIR
MOVING IN TONIGHT AND SUN WILL CLEAR TO THE AIRFIELDS TO
VFR...STARTING TONIGHT FOR AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION...AND
ELSEWHERE EARLY SUN MORNING. HI CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAFS FOR KWJF AND
KPMD WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. GUSTY W TO NW WINDS FOR COASTAL
AIRFIELDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. AT KSBA...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED 02Z-11Z DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. GUSTY
W WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF...ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR WHICH MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS ONE TO TWO HOURS. ONCE CLEARING TAKES PLACE...HI
CONFIDENCE DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
AIRFIELD THRU SUN EVENING. GUSTY W WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF...ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR WHICH MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS ONE TO TWO HOURS. ONCE CLEARING TAKES PLACE AROUND
05Z...HI CONFIDENCE DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...25/800 PM...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE WATERS THIS
EVENING...STRONGEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS WHERE GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE INNER WATERS WILL ALSO SEE
MODERATE TO STRONG GUSTS...AND THERE IS A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...PZZ650 AND PZZ655.

THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8
FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SUBSIDING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/GOMBERG
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 260024 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
525 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. A
COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS TODAY HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL AND FOOTHILL
PORTIONS OF SLO COUNTY...WHERE AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN .33 AND
.75 INCHES AS OF 2 PM. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO LOS ANGELES
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. BY THIS EVENING...MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 6000 AND
7000 FEET.

MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT PEAKED AT +8.2 MB. WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE VALLEY...
AND MANY COASTAL AREAS. WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED FOR SEVERAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOCUS OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE THERE COULD BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING
DUST. BY TONIGHT...THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPANDING TO THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...SAN FERNANDO VALLEY...AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA
WHILE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH WARMEST VALLEYS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES.
FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A QUICK BURST OF
OFFSHORE WINDS. WHILE THE OFFSHORE LAX-DAGGETT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS UPCOMING EVENT...THERE IS DESCENT
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. IN FACT...LATEST 12Z AND 18Z NAM MODELS
NOW SHOWING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOT 850 MB WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IF THIS WERE TO COME ANYWHERE CLOSE TO
THE SOLUTION...WE COULD SEE A WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY EVENT ACROSS
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES BY MONDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER ON
TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND DRY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS...BUT SHOULD
EXTEND FURTHER INLAND BY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0020Z.

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS...ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN FOR SEVERAL OF THE COAST AND VLY AIRFIELDS...WITH THE
TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS ONE TO TWO HOURS. HI CONFIDENCE DRIER AIR
MOVING IN TONIGHT AND SUN WILL CLEAR TO THE AIRFIELDS TO
VFR...STARTING TONIGHT FOR AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION...AND
ELSEWHERE EARLY SUN MORNING. HI CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAFS FOR KWJF AND
KPMD WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. GUSTY W TO NW WINDS FOR COASTAL
AIRFIELDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. AT KSBA...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED 02Z-11Z DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. GUSTY
W WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF...ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR WHICH MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS ONE TO TWO HOURS. ONCE CLEARING TAKES PLACE...HI
CONFIDENCE DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
AIRFIELD THRU SUN EVENING. GUSTY W WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF...ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR WHICH MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS ONE TO TWO HOURS. ONCE CLEARING TAKES PLACE AROUND
05Z...HI CONFIDENCE DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...25/200 PM...
IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 260024 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
525 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. A
COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS TODAY HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL AND FOOTHILL
PORTIONS OF SLO COUNTY...WHERE AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN .33 AND
.75 INCHES AS OF 2 PM. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO LOS ANGELES
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. BY THIS EVENING...MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 6000 AND
7000 FEET.

MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT PEAKED AT +8.2 MB. WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE VALLEY...
AND MANY COASTAL AREAS. WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED FOR SEVERAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOCUS OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE THERE COULD BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING
DUST. BY TONIGHT...THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPANDING TO THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...SAN FERNANDO VALLEY...AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA
WHILE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH WARMEST VALLEYS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES.
FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A QUICK BURST OF
OFFSHORE WINDS. WHILE THE OFFSHORE LAX-DAGGETT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS UPCOMING EVENT...THERE IS DESCENT
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. IN FACT...LATEST 12Z AND 18Z NAM MODELS
NOW SHOWING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOT 850 MB WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IF THIS WERE TO COME ANYWHERE CLOSE TO
THE SOLUTION...WE COULD SEE A WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY EVENT ACROSS
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES BY MONDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER ON
TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND DRY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS...BUT SHOULD
EXTEND FURTHER INLAND BY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0020Z.

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS...ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN FOR SEVERAL OF THE COAST AND VLY AIRFIELDS...WITH THE
TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS ONE TO TWO HOURS. HI CONFIDENCE DRIER AIR
MOVING IN TONIGHT AND SUN WILL CLEAR TO THE AIRFIELDS TO
VFR...STARTING TONIGHT FOR AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION...AND
ELSEWHERE EARLY SUN MORNING. HI CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAFS FOR KWJF AND
KPMD WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. GUSTY W TO NW WINDS FOR COASTAL
AIRFIELDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. AT KSBA...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED 02Z-11Z DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. GUSTY
W WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF...ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR WHICH MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS ONE TO TWO HOURS. ONCE CLEARING TAKES PLACE...HI
CONFIDENCE DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
AIRFIELD THRU SUN EVENING. GUSTY W WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF...ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR WHICH MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS ONE TO TWO HOURS. ONCE CLEARING TAKES PLACE AROUND
05Z...HI CONFIDENCE DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...25/200 PM...
IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 260024 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
525 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. A
COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS TODAY HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL AND FOOTHILL
PORTIONS OF SLO COUNTY...WHERE AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN .33 AND
.75 INCHES AS OF 2 PM. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO LOS ANGELES
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. BY THIS EVENING...MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 6000 AND
7000 FEET.

MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT PEAKED AT +8.2 MB. WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE VALLEY...
AND MANY COASTAL AREAS. WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED FOR SEVERAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOCUS OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE THERE COULD BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING
DUST. BY TONIGHT...THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPANDING TO THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...SAN FERNANDO VALLEY...AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA
WHILE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH WARMEST VALLEYS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES.
FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A QUICK BURST OF
OFFSHORE WINDS. WHILE THE OFFSHORE LAX-DAGGETT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS UPCOMING EVENT...THERE IS DESCENT
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. IN FACT...LATEST 12Z AND 18Z NAM MODELS
NOW SHOWING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOT 850 MB WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IF THIS WERE TO COME ANYWHERE CLOSE TO
THE SOLUTION...WE COULD SEE A WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY EVENT ACROSS
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES BY MONDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER ON
TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND DRY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS...BUT SHOULD
EXTEND FURTHER INLAND BY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0020Z.

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS...ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN FOR SEVERAL OF THE COAST AND VLY AIRFIELDS...WITH THE
TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS ONE TO TWO HOURS. HI CONFIDENCE DRIER AIR
MOVING IN TONIGHT AND SUN WILL CLEAR TO THE AIRFIELDS TO
VFR...STARTING TONIGHT FOR AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION...AND
ELSEWHERE EARLY SUN MORNING. HI CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAFS FOR KWJF AND
KPMD WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. GUSTY W TO NW WINDS FOR COASTAL
AIRFIELDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. AT KSBA...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED 02Z-11Z DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. GUSTY
W WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF...ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR WHICH MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS ONE TO TWO HOURS. ONCE CLEARING TAKES PLACE...HI
CONFIDENCE DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
AIRFIELD THRU SUN EVENING. GUSTY W WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF...ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR WHICH MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS ONE TO TWO HOURS. ONCE CLEARING TAKES PLACE AROUND
05Z...HI CONFIDENCE DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...25/200 PM...
IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 260024 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
525 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. A
COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS TODAY HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL AND FOOTHILL
PORTIONS OF SLO COUNTY...WHERE AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN .33 AND
.75 INCHES AS OF 2 PM. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO LOS ANGELES
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. BY THIS EVENING...MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 6000 AND
7000 FEET.

MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT PEAKED AT +8.2 MB. WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE VALLEY...
AND MANY COASTAL AREAS. WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED FOR SEVERAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOCUS OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE THERE COULD BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING
DUST. BY TONIGHT...THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPANDING TO THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...SAN FERNANDO VALLEY...AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA
WHILE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH WARMEST VALLEYS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES.
FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A QUICK BURST OF
OFFSHORE WINDS. WHILE THE OFFSHORE LAX-DAGGETT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS UPCOMING EVENT...THERE IS DESCENT
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. IN FACT...LATEST 12Z AND 18Z NAM MODELS
NOW SHOWING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOT 850 MB WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IF THIS WERE TO COME ANYWHERE CLOSE TO
THE SOLUTION...WE COULD SEE A WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY EVENT ACROSS
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES BY MONDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER ON
TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND DRY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS...BUT SHOULD
EXTEND FURTHER INLAND BY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0020Z.

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS...ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN FOR SEVERAL OF THE COAST AND VLY AIRFIELDS...WITH THE
TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS ONE TO TWO HOURS. HI CONFIDENCE DRIER AIR
MOVING IN TONIGHT AND SUN WILL CLEAR TO THE AIRFIELDS TO
VFR...STARTING TONIGHT FOR AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION...AND
ELSEWHERE EARLY SUN MORNING. HI CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAFS FOR KWJF AND
KPMD WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. GUSTY W TO NW WINDS FOR COASTAL
AIRFIELDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. AT KSBA...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED 02Z-11Z DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. GUSTY
W WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF...ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR WHICH MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS ONE TO TWO HOURS. ONCE CLEARING TAKES PLACE...HI
CONFIDENCE DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
AIRFIELD THRU SUN EVENING. GUSTY W WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF...ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR WHICH MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS ONE TO TWO HOURS. ONCE CLEARING TAKES PLACE AROUND
05Z...HI CONFIDENCE DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...25/200 PM...
IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 252125 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. A
COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY
HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL AND FOOTHILL PORTIONS OF SLO
COUNTY...WHERE AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN .33 AND .75 INCHES AS OF
2 PM. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. BY THIS EVENING...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET.

MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT PEAKED AT +8.2 MB. WINDS HAVE PICKED
UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND MANY
COASTAL AREAS. WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
POSTED FOR SEVERAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOCUS OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE THERE COULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH ALONG WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST. BY
TONIGHT...THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPANDING TO THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...SAN
FERNANDO VALLEY...AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA
WHILE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH WARMEST VALLEYS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES.
FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A QUICK BURST OF
OFFSHORE WINDS. WHILE THE OFFSHORE LAX-DAGGETT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS UPCOMING EVENT...THERE IS DESCENT
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. IN FACT...LATEST 12Z AND 18Z NAM MODELS
NOW SHOWING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOT 850 MB WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IF THIS WERE TO COME ANYWHERE CLOSE TO
THE SOLUTION...WE COULD SEE A WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY EVENT ACROSS
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES BY MONDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER ON
TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND DRY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS...BUT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER
INLAND BY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL APPROACH THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE NORTH AFTER 26/11Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME MODERATE NORTH AFTER 26/19Z. MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA WHILE AREAS OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS AFTER 26/00Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY 8KFT THIS
MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 3KFT SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1625Z IS NONE.

KLAX...SURFACE WIND 27022G32KT LIKELY BETWEEN 25/21-26/05Z.
OTHERWISE BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BECOMING
SCATTERED AFTER 26/00Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 AT TIMES BETWEEN 25/18-25/20Z OTHERWISE
CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THROUGH 26/00Z AND CHANCE -RA AT TIMES BETWEEN
25/20-26/00Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/200 PM...
IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 252125 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. A
COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY
HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL AND FOOTHILL PORTIONS OF SLO
COUNTY...WHERE AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN .33 AND .75 INCHES AS OF
2 PM. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. BY THIS EVENING...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET.

MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT PEAKED AT +8.2 MB. WINDS HAVE PICKED
UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND MANY
COASTAL AREAS. WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
POSTED FOR SEVERAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOCUS OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE THERE COULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH ALONG WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST. BY
TONIGHT...THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPANDING TO THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...SAN
FERNANDO VALLEY...AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA
WHILE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH WARMEST VALLEYS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES.
FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A QUICK BURST OF
OFFSHORE WINDS. WHILE THE OFFSHORE LAX-DAGGETT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS UPCOMING EVENT...THERE IS DESCENT
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. IN FACT...LATEST 12Z AND 18Z NAM MODELS
NOW SHOWING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOT 850 MB WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IF THIS WERE TO COME ANYWHERE CLOSE TO
THE SOLUTION...WE COULD SEE A WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY EVENT ACROSS
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES BY MONDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER ON
TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND DRY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS...BUT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER
INLAND BY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL APPROACH THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE NORTH AFTER 26/11Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME MODERATE NORTH AFTER 26/19Z. MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA WHILE AREAS OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS AFTER 26/00Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY 8KFT THIS
MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 3KFT SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1625Z IS NONE.

KLAX...SURFACE WIND 27022G32KT LIKELY BETWEEN 25/21-26/05Z.
OTHERWISE BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BECOMING
SCATTERED AFTER 26/00Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 AT TIMES BETWEEN 25/18-25/20Z OTHERWISE
CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THROUGH 26/00Z AND CHANCE -RA AT TIMES BETWEEN
25/20-26/00Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/200 PM...
IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 252125 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. A
COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY
HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL AND FOOTHILL PORTIONS OF SLO
COUNTY...WHERE AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN .33 AND .75 INCHES AS OF
2 PM. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. BY THIS EVENING...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET.

MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT PEAKED AT +8.2 MB. WINDS HAVE PICKED
UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND MANY
COASTAL AREAS. WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
POSTED FOR SEVERAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOCUS OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE THERE COULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH ALONG WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST. BY
TONIGHT...THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPANDING TO THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...SAN
FERNANDO VALLEY...AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA
WHILE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH WARMEST VALLEYS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES.
FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A QUICK BURST OF
OFFSHORE WINDS. WHILE THE OFFSHORE LAX-DAGGETT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS UPCOMING EVENT...THERE IS DESCENT
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. IN FACT...LATEST 12Z AND 18Z NAM MODELS
NOW SHOWING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOT 850 MB WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IF THIS WERE TO COME ANYWHERE CLOSE TO
THE SOLUTION...WE COULD SEE A WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY EVENT ACROSS
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES BY MONDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER ON
TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND DRY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS...BUT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER
INLAND BY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL APPROACH THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE NORTH AFTER 26/11Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME MODERATE NORTH AFTER 26/19Z. MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA WHILE AREAS OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS AFTER 26/00Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY 8KFT THIS
MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 3KFT SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1625Z IS NONE.

KLAX...SURFACE WIND 27022G32KT LIKELY BETWEEN 25/21-26/05Z.
OTHERWISE BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BECOMING
SCATTERED AFTER 26/00Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 AT TIMES BETWEEN 25/18-25/20Z OTHERWISE
CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THROUGH 26/00Z AND CHANCE -RA AT TIMES BETWEEN
25/20-26/00Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/200 PM...
IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 252125 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. A
COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY
HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL AND FOOTHILL PORTIONS OF SLO
COUNTY...WHERE AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN .33 AND .75 INCHES AS OF
2 PM. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. BY THIS EVENING...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET.

MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT PEAKED AT +8.2 MB. WINDS HAVE PICKED
UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND MANY
COASTAL AREAS. WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
POSTED FOR SEVERAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOCUS OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE THERE COULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH ALONG WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST. BY
TONIGHT...THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPANDING TO THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...SAN
FERNANDO VALLEY...AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA
WHILE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH WARMEST VALLEYS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES.
FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A QUICK BURST OF
OFFSHORE WINDS. WHILE THE OFFSHORE LAX-DAGGETT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS UPCOMING EVENT...THERE IS DESCENT
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. IN FACT...LATEST 12Z AND 18Z NAM MODELS
NOW SHOWING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOT 850 MB WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IF THIS WERE TO COME ANYWHERE CLOSE TO
THE SOLUTION...WE COULD SEE A WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY EVENT ACROSS
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES BY MONDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER ON
TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND DRY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS...BUT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER
INLAND BY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL APPROACH THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE NORTH AFTER 26/11Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME MODERATE NORTH AFTER 26/19Z. MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA WHILE AREAS OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS AFTER 26/00Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY 8KFT THIS
MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 3KFT SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1625Z IS NONE.

KLAX...SURFACE WIND 27022G32KT LIKELY BETWEEN 25/21-26/05Z.
OTHERWISE BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BECOMING
SCATTERED AFTER 26/00Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 AT TIMES BETWEEN 25/18-25/20Z OTHERWISE
CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THROUGH 26/00Z AND CHANCE -RA AT TIMES BETWEEN
25/20-26/00Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/200 PM...
IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 251748 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1047 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. GUSTY WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
A COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGING SOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL AND FOOTHILL PORTIONS OF SLO COUNTY...WHERE AMOUNTS
HAVE RANGED BETWEEN .33 AND .66 INCHES AS OF 9 AM. ONE HOUR RAINFALL
RATES UP TO
.25 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS AREA THIS MORNING.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LATEST 12Z NAM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOWING ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO POTENTIALLY
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...INCLUDING THE SBA SOUTH COAST...MOUNTAINS...AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. 12Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THESE HIGHER
POPS...WHICH HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN MORNING UPDATE. WHILE COASTAL AND
VALLEY PORTIONS OF VENTURA COUNTY WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS...SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO LA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS). SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET.

MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS.
INITIALLY...WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT ALREADY AT +6.6 MB. WINDS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP SHARPLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE
VALLEY...AND MANY COASTAL AREAS. WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR SEVERAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE THERE COULD BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST. BY TONIGHT...THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPANDING
TO THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER ADDING WIND ADVISORIES TO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPAND
SOUTH FROM THE I-5 CORRIDOR.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AS FAR AS THE SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES...LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP A STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
TODAY...THEN SCOUR OUT AS THE STRONGER W TO NW WINDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP AGAINST
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT MOST COAST AND
VALLEYS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING 70
DEGREES. THERE WILL BE BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL
RISE AS THE BEGINNING OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PAC ON
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE UP 4 TO 8 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ON MONDAY OF 8 TO 15 DEGREES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...A STRONGER SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN NRN
NEVADA AND SO CAL. THEREFORE EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF L.A./VENTURA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING.
IN FACT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING GOOD UPPER LVL SUPPORT
ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS TO A LOW END ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND EVENT.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ON TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. HOWEVER THE
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY VALLEY AND SOME COASTAL AREAS.
THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WELL
TUE. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN PAC. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST INITIALLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MARGINAL COOLING CONTINUING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THU/FRI. EXPECT A RETURN OF THE MARINE
LAYER IN SOME FASHION WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL APPROACH THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE NORTH AFTER 26/11Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME MODERATE NORTH AFTER 26/19Z. MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA WHILE AREAS OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS AFTER 26/00Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY 8KFT THIS
MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 3KFT SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1625Z IS NONE.

KLAX...SURFACE WIND 27022G32KT LIKELY BETWEEN 25/21-26/05Z.
OTHERWISE BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BECOMING
SCATTERED AFTER 26/00Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 AT TIMES BETWEEN 25/18-25/20Z OTHERWISE
CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THROUGH 26/00Z AND CHANCE -RA AT TIMES BETWEEN
25/20-26/00Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM...
IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 251748 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1047 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. GUSTY WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
A COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGING SOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL AND FOOTHILL PORTIONS OF SLO COUNTY...WHERE AMOUNTS
HAVE RANGED BETWEEN .33 AND .66 INCHES AS OF 9 AM. ONE HOUR RAINFALL
RATES UP TO
.25 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS AREA THIS MORNING.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LATEST 12Z NAM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOWING ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO POTENTIALLY
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...INCLUDING THE SBA SOUTH COAST...MOUNTAINS...AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. 12Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THESE HIGHER
POPS...WHICH HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN MORNING UPDATE. WHILE COASTAL AND
VALLEY PORTIONS OF VENTURA COUNTY WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS...SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO LA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS). SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET.

MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS.
INITIALLY...WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT ALREADY AT +6.6 MB. WINDS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP SHARPLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE
VALLEY...AND MANY COASTAL AREAS. WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR SEVERAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE THERE COULD BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST. BY TONIGHT...THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPANDING
TO THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER ADDING WIND ADVISORIES TO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPAND
SOUTH FROM THE I-5 CORRIDOR.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AS FAR AS THE SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES...LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP A STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
TODAY...THEN SCOUR OUT AS THE STRONGER W TO NW WINDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP AGAINST
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT MOST COAST AND
VALLEYS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING 70
DEGREES. THERE WILL BE BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL
RISE AS THE BEGINNING OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PAC ON
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE UP 4 TO 8 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ON MONDAY OF 8 TO 15 DEGREES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...A STRONGER SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN NRN
NEVADA AND SO CAL. THEREFORE EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF L.A./VENTURA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING.
IN FACT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING GOOD UPPER LVL SUPPORT
ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS TO A LOW END ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND EVENT.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ON TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. HOWEVER THE
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY VALLEY AND SOME COASTAL AREAS.
THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WELL
TUE. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN PAC. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST INITIALLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MARGINAL COOLING CONTINUING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THU/FRI. EXPECT A RETURN OF THE MARINE
LAYER IN SOME FASHION WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL APPROACH THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE NORTH AFTER 26/11Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME MODERATE NORTH AFTER 26/19Z. MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA WHILE AREAS OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS AFTER 26/00Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY 8KFT THIS
MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 3KFT SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1625Z IS NONE.

KLAX...SURFACE WIND 27022G32KT LIKELY BETWEEN 25/21-26/05Z.
OTHERWISE BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BECOMING
SCATTERED AFTER 26/00Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 AT TIMES BETWEEN 25/18-25/20Z OTHERWISE
CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THROUGH 26/00Z AND CHANCE -RA AT TIMES BETWEEN
25/20-26/00Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM...
IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 251651 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. GUSTY WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
A COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGING SOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AND FOOTHILL PORTIONS OF SLO COUNTY...WHERE AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED
BETWEEN .33 AND .66 INCHES AS OF 9 AM. ONE HOUR RAINFALL RATES UP TO
.25 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS AREA THIS MORNING.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LATEST 12Z NAM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOWING ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO POTENTIALLY
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...INCLUDING THE SBA SOUTH COAST...MOUNTAINS...AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. 12Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THESE HIGHER
POPS...WHICH HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN MORNING UPDATE. WHILE COASTAL AND
VALLEY PORTIONS OF VENTURA COUNTY WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS...SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO LA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS). SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET.

MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS.
INITIALLY...WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT ALREADY AT +6.6 MB. WINDS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP SHARPLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE
VALLEY...AND MANY COASTAL AREAS. WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR SEVERAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE THERE COULD BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST. BY TONIGHT...THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPANDING TO THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER ADDING WIND ADVISORIES TO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPAND
SOUTH FROM THE I-5 CORRIDOR.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AS FAR AS THE SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES...LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP A STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
TODAY...THEN SCOUR OUT AS THE STRONGER W TO NW WINDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP AGAINST
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT MOST COAST AND
VALLEYS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING 70
DEGREES. THERE WILL BE BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL
RISE AS THE BEGINNING OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PAC ON
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE UP 4 TO 8 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ON MONDAY OF 8 TO 15 DEGREES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...A STRONGER SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN NRN
NEVADA AND SO CAL. THEREFORE EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF L.A./VENTURA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING.
IN FACT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING GOOD UPPER LVL SUPPORT
ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS TO A LOW END ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND EVENT.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ON TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. HOWEVER THE
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY VALLEY AND SOME COASTAL AREAS.
THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WELL
TUE. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN PAC. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST INITIALLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MARGINAL COOLING CONTINUING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THU/FRI. EXPECT A RETURN OF THE MARINE
LAYER IN SOME FASHION WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1130Z...

AT 1115Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST
LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...CIGS WILL VARY
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR LEVELS AT ALL COASTAL/VALLEY TAF SITES. ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SITES NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ANY MVFR CIGS
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH A VFR SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK PREVAILING.

AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AS WELL
AS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE DIRECTION TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. ACROSS
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...THERE MAY BE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
BLOWING DUST/SAND (MVFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE).

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF
MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS THERE IS A 50% CHANCE
THAT ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN STRONG WEST WINDS (GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS) DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIGS
DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS NEAR SUNRISE. IF MVFR CIGS DO
DEVELOP...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR CIGS DISSIPATING AS MVFR
CONDS COULD REMAIN INTO MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTIER THAN USUAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING (LIKELY AROUND 15 KNOTS).

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM...
IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 251651 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. GUSTY WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
A COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGING SOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AND FOOTHILL PORTIONS OF SLO COUNTY...WHERE AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED
BETWEEN .33 AND .66 INCHES AS OF 9 AM. ONE HOUR RAINFALL RATES UP TO
.25 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS AREA THIS MORNING.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LATEST 12Z NAM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOWING ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO POTENTIALLY
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...INCLUDING THE SBA SOUTH COAST...MOUNTAINS...AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. 12Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THESE HIGHER
POPS...WHICH HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN MORNING UPDATE. WHILE COASTAL AND
VALLEY PORTIONS OF VENTURA COUNTY WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS...SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO LA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS). SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET.

MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS.
INITIALLY...WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT ALREADY AT +6.6 MB. WINDS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP SHARPLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE
VALLEY...AND MANY COASTAL AREAS. WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR SEVERAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE THERE COULD BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST. BY TONIGHT...THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPANDING TO THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER ADDING WIND ADVISORIES TO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPAND
SOUTH FROM THE I-5 CORRIDOR.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AS FAR AS THE SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES...LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP A STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
TODAY...THEN SCOUR OUT AS THE STRONGER W TO NW WINDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP AGAINST
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT MOST COAST AND
VALLEYS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING 70
DEGREES. THERE WILL BE BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL
RISE AS THE BEGINNING OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PAC ON
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE UP 4 TO 8 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ON MONDAY OF 8 TO 15 DEGREES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...A STRONGER SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN NRN
NEVADA AND SO CAL. THEREFORE EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF L.A./VENTURA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING.
IN FACT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING GOOD UPPER LVL SUPPORT
ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS TO A LOW END ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND EVENT.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ON TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. HOWEVER THE
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY VALLEY AND SOME COASTAL AREAS.
THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WELL
TUE. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN PAC. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST INITIALLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MARGINAL COOLING CONTINUING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THU/FRI. EXPECT A RETURN OF THE MARINE
LAYER IN SOME FASHION WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1130Z...

AT 1115Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST
LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...CIGS WILL VARY
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR LEVELS AT ALL COASTAL/VALLEY TAF SITES. ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SITES NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ANY MVFR CIGS
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH A VFR SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK PREVAILING.

AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AS WELL
AS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE DIRECTION TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. ACROSS
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...THERE MAY BE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
BLOWING DUST/SAND (MVFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE).

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF
MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS THERE IS A 50% CHANCE
THAT ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN STRONG WEST WINDS (GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS) DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIGS
DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS NEAR SUNRISE. IF MVFR CIGS DO
DEVELOP...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR CIGS DISSIPATING AS MVFR
CONDS COULD REMAIN INTO MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTIER THAN USUAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING (LIKELY AROUND 15 KNOTS).

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM...
IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 251651 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. GUSTY WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
A COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGING SOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AND FOOTHILL PORTIONS OF SLO COUNTY...WHERE AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED
BETWEEN .33 AND .66 INCHES AS OF 9 AM. ONE HOUR RAINFALL RATES UP TO
.25 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS AREA THIS MORNING.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LATEST 12Z NAM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOWING ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO POTENTIALLY
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...INCLUDING THE SBA SOUTH COAST...MOUNTAINS...AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. 12Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THESE HIGHER
POPS...WHICH HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN MORNING UPDATE. WHILE COASTAL AND
VALLEY PORTIONS OF VENTURA COUNTY WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS...SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO LA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS). SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET.

MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS.
INITIALLY...WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT ALREADY AT +6.6 MB. WINDS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP SHARPLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE
VALLEY...AND MANY COASTAL AREAS. WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR SEVERAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE THERE COULD BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST. BY TONIGHT...THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPANDING TO THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER ADDING WIND ADVISORIES TO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPAND
SOUTH FROM THE I-5 CORRIDOR.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AS FAR AS THE SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES...LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP A STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
TODAY...THEN SCOUR OUT AS THE STRONGER W TO NW WINDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP AGAINST
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT MOST COAST AND
VALLEYS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING 70
DEGREES. THERE WILL BE BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL
RISE AS THE BEGINNING OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PAC ON
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE UP 4 TO 8 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ON MONDAY OF 8 TO 15 DEGREES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...A STRONGER SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN NRN
NEVADA AND SO CAL. THEREFORE EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF L.A./VENTURA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING.
IN FACT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING GOOD UPPER LVL SUPPORT
ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS TO A LOW END ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND EVENT.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ON TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. HOWEVER THE
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY VALLEY AND SOME COASTAL AREAS.
THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WELL
TUE. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN PAC. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST INITIALLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MARGINAL COOLING CONTINUING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THU/FRI. EXPECT A RETURN OF THE MARINE
LAYER IN SOME FASHION WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1130Z...

AT 1115Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST
LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...CIGS WILL VARY
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR LEVELS AT ALL COASTAL/VALLEY TAF SITES. ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SITES NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ANY MVFR CIGS
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH A VFR SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK PREVAILING.

AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AS WELL
AS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE DIRECTION TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. ACROSS
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...THERE MAY BE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
BLOWING DUST/SAND (MVFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE).

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF
MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS THERE IS A 50% CHANCE
THAT ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN STRONG WEST WINDS (GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS) DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIGS
DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS NEAR SUNRISE. IF MVFR CIGS DO
DEVELOP...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR CIGS DISSIPATING AS MVFR
CONDS COULD REMAIN INTO MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTIER THAN USUAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING (LIKELY AROUND 15 KNOTS).

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM...
IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WITH THE PEAK
WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 9 TO 12
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 251129 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST AND WEAK MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO
THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS TODAY TO SUNDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS MORNING WHERE LIGHT RAINFALL WAS
INDICATED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CALIFORNIA...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. YOU KNOW...AN INSIDE
SLIDER. THAT BEING SAID...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL COAST...THEN
QUICKLY MOVING INLAND FOCUSING MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO AT THIS POINT...FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY...THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND WEAKENS...THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SLOPES. ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL BE OUT OF
THE NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...IT DOES BECOME SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC
AROUND ORANGE COUNTY/SOUTHERN L.A. COUNTY...SO WILL STICK WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS AROUND LONG BEACH TO THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE HIGH WIND WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNING WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
25 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION. THIS WOULD INCLUDE QUARTZ HILL TO POPPY PARK AS WELL AS
NEENACH TO JUST SOUTH OF ROSAMOND. HIGHWAY 14 AND 138 WILL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH BLOWING SAND AND DUST MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS INCLUDING VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO NEAR ZERO WHERE
BLOWING SAND AND DUST ARE OCCURRING. ALSO DANGEROUS CROSS WINDS WILL
BE AN ISSUE FOR DRIVERS OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. HAVE CONTINUED TO
KEEP HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE L.A./VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
FOR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE DAY SHIFT WILL MAKE
THE DECISION TO UPGRADE TO WARNING OR CONVERT TO A STRONG WIND
ADVISORY. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
EXPECTED...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA
YNEZ MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE USUAL SUNDOWNER TYPE WINDS. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY NW WINDS AS WELL BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AND LASTLY...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL ADD WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NORTH WINDS SPREAD SOUTH
FROM THE I-5 CORRIDOR.

AS FAR AS THE SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES...LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP A STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
TODAY...THEN SCOUR OUT AS THE STRONGER W TO NW WINDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP AGAINST
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT MOST COAST AND
VALLEYS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING 70
DEGREES. THERE WILL BE BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL
RISE AS THE BEGINNING OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PAC ON
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE UP 4 TO 8 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ON MONDAY OF 8 TO 15 DEGREES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...A STRONGER SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN NRN
NEVADA AND SO CAL. THEREFORE EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF L.A./VENTURA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING.
IN FACT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING GOOD UPPER LVL SUPPORT
ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS TO A LOW END ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND EVENT.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ON TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. HOWEVER THE
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY VALLEY AND SOME COASTAL AREAS.
THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WELL
TUE. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN PAC. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST INITIALLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MARGINAL COOLING CONTINUING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THU/FRI. EXPECT A RETURN OF THE MARINE
LAYER IN SOME FASHION WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1130Z...

AT 1115Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST
LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...CIGS WILL VARY
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR LEVELS AT ALL COASTAL/VALLEY TAF SITES. ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SITES NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ANY MVFR CIGS
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH A VFR SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK PREVAILING.

AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AS WELL
AS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE DIRECTION TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. ACROSS
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...THERE MAY BE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
BLOWING DUST/SAND (MVFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE).

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF
MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS THERE IS A 50% CHANCE
THAT ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN STRONG WEST WINDS (GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS) DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIGS
DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS NEAR SUNRISE. IF MVFR CIGS DO
DEVELOP...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR CIGS DISSIPATING AS MVFR
CONDS COULD REMAIN INTO MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTIER THAN USUAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING (LIKELY AROUND 15 KNOTS).

&&

.MARINE...25/220 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING GALE
WARNING LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. FOR MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL GROW TO 10 TO 13
FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND TO 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. THIS WILL MAKE NAVIGATION EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 251129 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST AND WEAK MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO
THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS TODAY TO SUNDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS MORNING WHERE LIGHT RAINFALL WAS
INDICATED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CALIFORNIA...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. YOU KNOW...AN INSIDE
SLIDER. THAT BEING SAID...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL COAST...THEN
QUICKLY MOVING INLAND FOCUSING MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO AT THIS POINT...FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY...THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND WEAKENS...THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SLOPES. ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL BE OUT OF
THE NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...IT DOES BECOME SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC
AROUND ORANGE COUNTY/SOUTHERN L.A. COUNTY...SO WILL STICK WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS AROUND LONG BEACH TO THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE HIGH WIND WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNING WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
25 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION. THIS WOULD INCLUDE QUARTZ HILL TO POPPY PARK AS WELL AS
NEENACH TO JUST SOUTH OF ROSAMOND. HIGHWAY 14 AND 138 WILL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH BLOWING SAND AND DUST MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS INCLUDING VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO NEAR ZERO WHERE
BLOWING SAND AND DUST ARE OCCURRING. ALSO DANGEROUS CROSS WINDS WILL
BE AN ISSUE FOR DRIVERS OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. HAVE CONTINUED TO
KEEP HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE L.A./VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
FOR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE DAY SHIFT WILL MAKE
THE DECISION TO UPGRADE TO WARNING OR CONVERT TO A STRONG WIND
ADVISORY. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
EXPECTED...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA
YNEZ MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE USUAL SUNDOWNER TYPE WINDS. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY NW WINDS AS WELL BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AND LASTLY...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL ADD WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NORTH WINDS SPREAD SOUTH
FROM THE I-5 CORRIDOR.

AS FAR AS THE SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES...LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP A STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
TODAY...THEN SCOUR OUT AS THE STRONGER W TO NW WINDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP AGAINST
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT MOST COAST AND
VALLEYS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING 70
DEGREES. THERE WILL BE BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL
RISE AS THE BEGINNING OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PAC ON
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE UP 4 TO 8 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ON MONDAY OF 8 TO 15 DEGREES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...A STRONGER SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN NRN
NEVADA AND SO CAL. THEREFORE EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF L.A./VENTURA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING.
IN FACT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING GOOD UPPER LVL SUPPORT
ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS TO A LOW END ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND EVENT.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ON TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. HOWEVER THE
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY VALLEY AND SOME COASTAL AREAS.
THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WELL
TUE. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN PAC. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST INITIALLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MARGINAL COOLING CONTINUING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THU/FRI. EXPECT A RETURN OF THE MARINE
LAYER IN SOME FASHION WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1130Z...

AT 1115Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST
LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...CIGS WILL VARY
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR LEVELS AT ALL COASTAL/VALLEY TAF SITES. ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SITES NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ANY MVFR CIGS
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH A VFR SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK PREVAILING.

AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AS WELL
AS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE DIRECTION TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. ACROSS
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...THERE MAY BE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
BLOWING DUST/SAND (MVFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE).

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF
MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS THERE IS A 50% CHANCE
THAT ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN STRONG WEST WINDS (GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS) DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIGS
DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS NEAR SUNRISE. IF MVFR CIGS DO
DEVELOP...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR CIGS DISSIPATING AS MVFR
CONDS COULD REMAIN INTO MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTIER THAN USUAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING (LIKELY AROUND 15 KNOTS).

&&

.MARINE...25/220 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING GALE
WARNING LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. FOR MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL GROW TO 10 TO 13
FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND TO 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. THIS WILL MAKE NAVIGATION EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 251129 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST AND WEAK MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO
THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS TODAY TO SUNDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS MORNING WHERE LIGHT RAINFALL WAS
INDICATED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CALIFORNIA...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. YOU KNOW...AN INSIDE
SLIDER. THAT BEING SAID...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL COAST...THEN
QUICKLY MOVING INLAND FOCUSING MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO AT THIS POINT...FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY...THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND WEAKENS...THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SLOPES. ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL BE OUT OF
THE NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...IT DOES BECOME SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC
AROUND ORANGE COUNTY/SOUTHERN L.A. COUNTY...SO WILL STICK WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS AROUND LONG BEACH TO THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE HIGH WIND WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNING WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
25 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION. THIS WOULD INCLUDE QUARTZ HILL TO POPPY PARK AS WELL AS
NEENACH TO JUST SOUTH OF ROSAMOND. HIGHWAY 14 AND 138 WILL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH BLOWING SAND AND DUST MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS INCLUDING VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO NEAR ZERO WHERE
BLOWING SAND AND DUST ARE OCCURRING. ALSO DANGEROUS CROSS WINDS WILL
BE AN ISSUE FOR DRIVERS OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. HAVE CONTINUED TO
KEEP HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE L.A./VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
FOR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE DAY SHIFT WILL MAKE
THE DECISION TO UPGRADE TO WARNING OR CONVERT TO A STRONG WIND
ADVISORY. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
EXPECTED...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA
YNEZ MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE USUAL SUNDOWNER TYPE WINDS. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY NW WINDS AS WELL BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AND LASTLY...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL ADD WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NORTH WINDS SPREAD SOUTH
FROM THE I-5 CORRIDOR.

AS FAR AS THE SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES...LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP A STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
TODAY...THEN SCOUR OUT AS THE STRONGER W TO NW WINDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP AGAINST
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT MOST COAST AND
VALLEYS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING 70
DEGREES. THERE WILL BE BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL
RISE AS THE BEGINNING OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PAC ON
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE UP 4 TO 8 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ON MONDAY OF 8 TO 15 DEGREES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...A STRONGER SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN NRN
NEVADA AND SO CAL. THEREFORE EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF L.A./VENTURA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING.
IN FACT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING GOOD UPPER LVL SUPPORT
ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS TO A LOW END ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND EVENT.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ON TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. HOWEVER THE
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY VALLEY AND SOME COASTAL AREAS.
THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WELL
TUE. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN PAC. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST INITIALLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MARGINAL COOLING CONTINUING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THU/FRI. EXPECT A RETURN OF THE MARINE
LAYER IN SOME FASHION WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1130Z...

AT 1115Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST
LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...CIGS WILL VARY
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR LEVELS AT ALL COASTAL/VALLEY TAF SITES. ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SITES NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ANY MVFR CIGS
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH A VFR SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK PREVAILING.

AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AS WELL
AS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE DIRECTION TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. ACROSS
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...THERE MAY BE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
BLOWING DUST/SAND (MVFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE).

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF
MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS THERE IS A 50% CHANCE
THAT ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN STRONG WEST WINDS (GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS) DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIGS
DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS NEAR SUNRISE. IF MVFR CIGS DO
DEVELOP...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR CIGS DISSIPATING AS MVFR
CONDS COULD REMAIN INTO MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTIER THAN USUAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING (LIKELY AROUND 15 KNOTS).

&&

.MARINE...25/220 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING GALE
WARNING LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. FOR MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL GROW TO 10 TO 13
FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND TO 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. THIS WILL MAKE NAVIGATION EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 250949
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST AND WEAK MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO
THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS TODAY TO SUNDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS MORNING WHERE LIGHT RAINFALL WAS
INDICATED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CALIFORNIA...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. YOU KNOW...AN INSIDE
SLIDER. THAT BEING SAID...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL COAST...THEN
QUICKLY MOVING INLAND FOCUSING MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO AT THIS POINT...FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY...THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND WEAKENS...THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SLOPES. ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL BE OUT OF
THE NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...IT DOES BECOME SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC
AROUND ORANGE COUNTY/SOUTHERN L.A. COUNTY...SO WILL STICK WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS AROUND LONG BEACH TO THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE HIGH WIND WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNING WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
25 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION. THIS WOULD INCLUDE QUARTZ HILL TO POPPY PARK AS WELL AS
NEENACH TO JUST SOUTH OF ROSAMOND. HIGHWAY 14 AND 138 WILL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH BLOWING SAND AND DUST MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS INCLUDING VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO NEAR ZERO WHERE
BLOWING SAND AND DUST ARE OCCURRING. ALSO DANGEROUS CROSS WINDS WILL
BE AN ISSUE FOR DRIVERS OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. HAVE CONTINUED TO
KEEP HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE L.A./VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
FOR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE DAY SHIFT WILL MAKE
THE DECISION TO UPGRADE TO WARNING OR CONVERT TO A STRONG WIND
ADVISORY. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
EXPECTED...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA
YNEZ MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE USUAL SUNDOWNER TYPE WINDS. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY NW WINDS AS WELL BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AND LASTLY...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL ADD WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NORTH WINDS SPREAD SOUTH
FROM THE I-5 CORRIDOR.

AS FAR AS THE SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES...LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP A STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
TODAY...THEN SCOUR OUT AS THE STRONGER W TO NW WINDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP AGAINST
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT MOST COAST AND
VALLEYS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING 70
DEGREES. THERE WILL BE BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL
RISE AS THE BEGINNING OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PAC ON
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE UP 4 TO 8 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ON MONDAY OF 8 TO 15 DEGREES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...A STRONGER SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN NRN
NEVADA AND SO CAL. THEREFORE EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF L.A./VENTURA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING.
IN FACT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING GOOD UPPER LVL SUPPORT
ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS TO A LOW END ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND EVENT.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ON TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. HOWEVER THE
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY VALLEY AND SOME COASTAL AREAS.
THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WELL
TUE. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN PAC. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST INITIALLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MARGINAL COOLING CONTINUING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THU/FRI. EXPECT A RETURN OF THE MARINE
LAYER IN SOME FASHION WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0520Z

AT 0435Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 5900 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 6800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 5
DEG C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAFS. THE COASTAL AND VLY
AIRFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT
TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL AFFECT KSMX AND KSBP SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY W WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING AT KSBA...KOXR...KLAX AND
KLGB...WITH GUSTY S TO SE WINDS AT KBUR AND KVNY. FOR KWJF AND
KPMD...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THRU SAT EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY W TO
SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHO WINDS WILL BE EVEN
STRONGER SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KT AT TIMES.
THESE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE PERIODS OF BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VSBYS
TO MVFR CAT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
VSBYS IN BLOWING DUST SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS WELL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN
HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED SAT
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU EARLY LATE TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY VFR CIGS THRU SAT EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS...WITH THE TIMING OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY S WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SAT
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...25/220 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING GALE
WARNING LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. FOR MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL GROW TO 10 TO 13
FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND TO 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. THIS WILL MAKE NAVIGATION EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 250949
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST AND WEAK MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO
THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS TODAY TO SUNDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS MORNING WHERE LIGHT RAINFALL WAS
INDICATED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CALIFORNIA...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. YOU KNOW...AN INSIDE
SLIDER. THAT BEING SAID...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL COAST...THEN
QUICKLY MOVING INLAND FOCUSING MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO AT THIS POINT...FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY...THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND WEAKENS...THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SLOPES. ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL BE OUT OF
THE NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...IT DOES BECOME SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC
AROUND ORANGE COUNTY/SOUTHERN L.A. COUNTY...SO WILL STICK WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS AROUND LONG BEACH TO THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE HIGH WIND WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNING WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
25 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION. THIS WOULD INCLUDE QUARTZ HILL TO POPPY PARK AS WELL AS
NEENACH TO JUST SOUTH OF ROSAMOND. HIGHWAY 14 AND 138 WILL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH BLOWING SAND AND DUST MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS INCLUDING VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO NEAR ZERO WHERE
BLOWING SAND AND DUST ARE OCCURRING. ALSO DANGEROUS CROSS WINDS WILL
BE AN ISSUE FOR DRIVERS OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. HAVE CONTINUED TO
KEEP HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE L.A./VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
FOR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE DAY SHIFT WILL MAKE
THE DECISION TO UPGRADE TO WARNING OR CONVERT TO A STRONG WIND
ADVISORY. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
EXPECTED...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA
YNEZ MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE USUAL SUNDOWNER TYPE WINDS. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY NW WINDS AS WELL BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AND LASTLY...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL ADD WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NORTH WINDS SPREAD SOUTH
FROM THE I-5 CORRIDOR.

AS FAR AS THE SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES...LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP A STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
TODAY...THEN SCOUR OUT AS THE STRONGER W TO NW WINDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP AGAINST
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT MOST COAST AND
VALLEYS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING 70
DEGREES. THERE WILL BE BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL
RISE AS THE BEGINNING OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PAC ON
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE UP 4 TO 8 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ON MONDAY OF 8 TO 15 DEGREES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...A STRONGER SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN NRN
NEVADA AND SO CAL. THEREFORE EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF L.A./VENTURA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING.
IN FACT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING GOOD UPPER LVL SUPPORT
ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS TO A LOW END ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND EVENT.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ON TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. HOWEVER THE
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY VALLEY AND SOME COASTAL AREAS.
THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WELL
TUE. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN PAC. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST INITIALLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MARGINAL COOLING CONTINUING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THU/FRI. EXPECT A RETURN OF THE MARINE
LAYER IN SOME FASHION WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0520Z

AT 0435Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 5900 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 6800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 5
DEG C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAFS. THE COASTAL AND VLY
AIRFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT
TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL AFFECT KSMX AND KSBP SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY W WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING AT KSBA...KOXR...KLAX AND
KLGB...WITH GUSTY S TO SE WINDS AT KBUR AND KVNY. FOR KWJF AND
KPMD...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THRU SAT EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY W TO
SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHO WINDS WILL BE EVEN
STRONGER SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KT AT TIMES.
THESE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE PERIODS OF BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VSBYS
TO MVFR CAT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
VSBYS IN BLOWING DUST SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS WELL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN
HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED SAT
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU EARLY LATE TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY VFR CIGS THRU SAT EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS...WITH THE TIMING OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY S WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SAT
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...25/220 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING GALE
WARNING LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. FOR MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL GROW TO 10 TO 13
FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND TO 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. THIS WILL MAKE NAVIGATION EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 250949
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST AND WEAK MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO
THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS TODAY TO SUNDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS MORNING WHERE LIGHT RAINFALL WAS
INDICATED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CALIFORNIA...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. YOU KNOW...AN INSIDE
SLIDER. THAT BEING SAID...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL COAST...THEN
QUICKLY MOVING INLAND FOCUSING MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO AT THIS POINT...FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY...THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND WEAKENS...THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SLOPES. ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL BE OUT OF
THE NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...IT DOES BECOME SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC
AROUND ORANGE COUNTY/SOUTHERN L.A. COUNTY...SO WILL STICK WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS AROUND LONG BEACH TO THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE HIGH WIND WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNING WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
25 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION. THIS WOULD INCLUDE QUARTZ HILL TO POPPY PARK AS WELL AS
NEENACH TO JUST SOUTH OF ROSAMOND. HIGHWAY 14 AND 138 WILL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH BLOWING SAND AND DUST MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS INCLUDING VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO NEAR ZERO WHERE
BLOWING SAND AND DUST ARE OCCURRING. ALSO DANGEROUS CROSS WINDS WILL
BE AN ISSUE FOR DRIVERS OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. HAVE CONTINUED TO
KEEP HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE L.A./VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
FOR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE DAY SHIFT WILL MAKE
THE DECISION TO UPGRADE TO WARNING OR CONVERT TO A STRONG WIND
ADVISORY. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
EXPECTED...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA
YNEZ MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE USUAL SUNDOWNER TYPE WINDS. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY NW WINDS AS WELL BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AND LASTLY...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL ADD WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NORTH WINDS SPREAD SOUTH
FROM THE I-5 CORRIDOR.

AS FAR AS THE SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES...LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP A STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
TODAY...THEN SCOUR OUT AS THE STRONGER W TO NW WINDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP AGAINST
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT MOST COAST AND
VALLEYS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING 70
DEGREES. THERE WILL BE BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL
RISE AS THE BEGINNING OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PAC ON
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE UP 4 TO 8 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ON MONDAY OF 8 TO 15 DEGREES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...A STRONGER SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN NRN
NEVADA AND SO CAL. THEREFORE EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF L.A./VENTURA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING.
IN FACT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING GOOD UPPER LVL SUPPORT
ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS TO A LOW END ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND EVENT.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ON TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. HOWEVER THE
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY VALLEY AND SOME COASTAL AREAS.
THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WELL
TUE. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN PAC. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST INITIALLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MARGINAL COOLING CONTINUING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THU/FRI. EXPECT A RETURN OF THE MARINE
LAYER IN SOME FASHION WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0520Z

AT 0435Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 5900 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 6800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 5
DEG C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAFS. THE COASTAL AND VLY
AIRFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT
TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL AFFECT KSMX AND KSBP SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY W WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING AT KSBA...KOXR...KLAX AND
KLGB...WITH GUSTY S TO SE WINDS AT KBUR AND KVNY. FOR KWJF AND
KPMD...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THRU SAT EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY W TO
SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHO WINDS WILL BE EVEN
STRONGER SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KT AT TIMES.
THESE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE PERIODS OF BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VSBYS
TO MVFR CAT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
VSBYS IN BLOWING DUST SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS WELL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN
HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED SAT
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU EARLY LATE TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY VFR CIGS THRU SAT EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS...WITH THE TIMING OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY S WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SAT
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...25/220 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING GALE
WARNING LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. FOR MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL GROW TO 10 TO 13
FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND TO 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. THIS WILL MAKE NAVIGATION EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 250949
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST AND WEAK MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO
THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS TODAY TO SUNDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS MORNING WHERE LIGHT RAINFALL WAS
INDICATED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CALIFORNIA...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. YOU KNOW...AN INSIDE
SLIDER. THAT BEING SAID...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL COAST...THEN
QUICKLY MOVING INLAND FOCUSING MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO AT THIS POINT...FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY...THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND WEAKENS...THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SLOPES. ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL BE OUT OF
THE NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...IT DOES BECOME SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC
AROUND ORANGE COUNTY/SOUTHERN L.A. COUNTY...SO WILL STICK WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS AROUND LONG BEACH TO THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE HIGH WIND WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNING WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
25 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION. THIS WOULD INCLUDE QUARTZ HILL TO POPPY PARK AS WELL AS
NEENACH TO JUST SOUTH OF ROSAMOND. HIGHWAY 14 AND 138 WILL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH BLOWING SAND AND DUST MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS INCLUDING VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO NEAR ZERO WHERE
BLOWING SAND AND DUST ARE OCCURRING. ALSO DANGEROUS CROSS WINDS WILL
BE AN ISSUE FOR DRIVERS OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. HAVE CONTINUED TO
KEEP HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE L.A./VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
FOR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE DAY SHIFT WILL MAKE
THE DECISION TO UPGRADE TO WARNING OR CONVERT TO A STRONG WIND
ADVISORY. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
EXPECTED...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA
YNEZ MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE USUAL SUNDOWNER TYPE WINDS. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY NW WINDS AS WELL BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AND LASTLY...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL ADD WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NORTH WINDS SPREAD SOUTH
FROM THE I-5 CORRIDOR.

AS FAR AS THE SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES...LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP A STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
TODAY...THEN SCOUR OUT AS THE STRONGER W TO NW WINDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP AGAINST
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT MOST COAST AND
VALLEYS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING 70
DEGREES. THERE WILL BE BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL
RISE AS THE BEGINNING OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PAC ON
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE UP 4 TO 8 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ON MONDAY OF 8 TO 15 DEGREES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...A STRONGER SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN NRN
NEVADA AND SO CAL. THEREFORE EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF L.A./VENTURA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING.
IN FACT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING GOOD UPPER LVL SUPPORT
ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS TO A LOW END ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND EVENT.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ON TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. HOWEVER THE
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY VALLEY AND SOME COASTAL AREAS.
THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WELL
TUE. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN PAC. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST INITIALLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MARGINAL COOLING CONTINUING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THU/FRI. EXPECT A RETURN OF THE MARINE
LAYER IN SOME FASHION WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0520Z

AT 0435Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 5900 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 6800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 5
DEG C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAFS. THE COASTAL AND VLY
AIRFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT
TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL AFFECT KSMX AND KSBP SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY W WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING AT KSBA...KOXR...KLAX AND
KLGB...WITH GUSTY S TO SE WINDS AT KBUR AND KVNY. FOR KWJF AND
KPMD...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THRU SAT EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY W TO
SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHO WINDS WILL BE EVEN
STRONGER SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KT AT TIMES.
THESE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE PERIODS OF BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VSBYS
TO MVFR CAT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
VSBYS IN BLOWING DUST SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS WELL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN
HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED SAT
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU EARLY LATE TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY VFR CIGS THRU SAT EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS...WITH THE TIMING OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY S WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SAT
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...25/220 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING GALE
WARNING LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. FOR MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL GROW TO 10 TO 13
FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND TO 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. THIS WILL MAKE NAVIGATION EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 250523 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1025 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AND NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES ON SATURDAY. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES MOUNTAINS SATURDAY TO SUNDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL
FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...THICK MOIST LAYER WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
PERSIST OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM THE MTNS TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE L.A. COUNTY
MTNS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES ALTHO HI CLOUDS
WERE QUICKLY APPROACHING THIS AREA. OVERNIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND INTO THE SLO COUNTY
INTERIOR VALLEYS...WHILE THE CLOUDINESS PERSISTS OVER VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES. GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE IN THE ANTELOPE VLY THIS EVENING
BUT WERE GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO ADVISORY LEVELS (SUSTAINED 35
MPH...FREQUENT GUSTS TO 45 MPH)...THEREFORE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS AREA WILL PROBABLY BE CANCELLED THIS EVENING. SOME GUSTY NW
WINDS LINGER ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL...BUT WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO NRN CA TONIGHT THEN SLIDE QUICKLY
THRU ERN AND SERN CA ON SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OFF THE
CA COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH A BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
SRN CA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN CA
SUN NIGHT AND MON...WITH A CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR SRN
CA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA ON SAT ALONG WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT WILL BE
OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALSO ON THE N MTN
SLOPES OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...WHICH SHOULD LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES ON SAT SHOULD RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH. EVEN STRONGER W WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ANTELOPE VLY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE LIKELY SAT
AFTERNOON FOR THE ANTELOPE VLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. COASTAL AND SOME
VLY AREAS SHOULD ALSO HAVE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THANKS TO STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS...WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE. STRONG AND GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MTNS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR SAT
EVENING AND LINGER THRU EARLY SUN MORNING...AND HIGH WIND WATCHES
ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE HIGH WIND
WATCHES. WITH THE FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
EARLY SUN...DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THE
DAY ON SUN.

WINDS WILL TURN NE AND BE GUSTY OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A.COUNTIES
LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY BELOW AND THRU THE
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED BY EARLY MON MORNING FOR THE SANTA MONICA MTNS...VTU COUNTY
VLYS...SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND THE  WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VLY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS OVER SWRN CA ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ON
SAT. TEMPS WILL THEN WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
AREAS ON SUN...AND TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ON MON...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST VLYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...LONG-RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT
TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE
FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THOUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0520Z

AT 0435Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 5900 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 6800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 5
DEG C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAFS. THE COASTAL AND VLY
AIRFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT
TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL AFFECT KSMX AND KSBP SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY W WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING AT KSBA...KOXR...KLAX AND
KLGB...WITH GUSTY S TO SE WINDS AT KBUR AND KVNY. FOR KWJF AND
KPMD...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THRU SAT EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY W TO
SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHO WINDS WILL BE EVEN
STRONGER SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KT AT TIMES.
THESE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE PERIODS OF BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VSBYS
TO MVFR CAT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
VSBYS IN BLOWING DUST SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS WELL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN
HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED SAT
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU EARLY LATE TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY VFR CIGS THRU SAT EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS...WITH THE TIMING OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY S WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SAT
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM...
GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS STARTING AT MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AS STRONG GUSTS MAY BEGIN A FEW HOURS EARLIER. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...NEAR SANTA CRUZ ISLAND AND SOUTHWARD TO CATALINA ISLAND. IT
IS LIKELY THAT LOCAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA
STARTING AROUND 2 PM SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. STRONG TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL GROW TO 10 TO
13 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND TO 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...SO THAT NAVIGATION WILL BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/SUKUP
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 250523 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1025 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AND NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES ON SATURDAY. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES MOUNTAINS SATURDAY TO SUNDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL
FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...THICK MOIST LAYER WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
PERSIST OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM THE MTNS TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE L.A. COUNTY
MTNS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES ALTHO HI CLOUDS
WERE QUICKLY APPROACHING THIS AREA. OVERNIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND INTO THE SLO COUNTY
INTERIOR VALLEYS...WHILE THE CLOUDINESS PERSISTS OVER VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES. GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE IN THE ANTELOPE VLY THIS EVENING
BUT WERE GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO ADVISORY LEVELS (SUSTAINED 35
MPH...FREQUENT GUSTS TO 45 MPH)...THEREFORE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS AREA WILL PROBABLY BE CANCELLED THIS EVENING. SOME GUSTY NW
WINDS LINGER ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL...BUT WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO NRN CA TONIGHT THEN SLIDE QUICKLY
THRU ERN AND SERN CA ON SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OFF THE
CA COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH A BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
SRN CA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN CA
SUN NIGHT AND MON...WITH A CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR SRN
CA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA ON SAT ALONG WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT WILL BE
OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALSO ON THE N MTN
SLOPES OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...WHICH SHOULD LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES ON SAT SHOULD RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH. EVEN STRONGER W WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ANTELOPE VLY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE LIKELY SAT
AFTERNOON FOR THE ANTELOPE VLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. COASTAL AND SOME
VLY AREAS SHOULD ALSO HAVE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THANKS TO STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS...WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE. STRONG AND GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MTNS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR SAT
EVENING AND LINGER THRU EARLY SUN MORNING...AND HIGH WIND WATCHES
ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE HIGH WIND
WATCHES. WITH THE FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
EARLY SUN...DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THE
DAY ON SUN.

WINDS WILL TURN NE AND BE GUSTY OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A.COUNTIES
LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY BELOW AND THRU THE
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED BY EARLY MON MORNING FOR THE SANTA MONICA MTNS...VTU COUNTY
VLYS...SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND THE  WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VLY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS OVER SWRN CA ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ON
SAT. TEMPS WILL THEN WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
AREAS ON SUN...AND TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ON MON...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST VLYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...LONG-RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT
TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE
FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THOUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0520Z

AT 0435Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 5900 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 6800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 5
DEG C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAFS. THE COASTAL AND VLY
AIRFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT
TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL AFFECT KSMX AND KSBP SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY W WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING AT KSBA...KOXR...KLAX AND
KLGB...WITH GUSTY S TO SE WINDS AT KBUR AND KVNY. FOR KWJF AND
KPMD...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THRU SAT EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY W TO
SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHO WINDS WILL BE EVEN
STRONGER SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KT AT TIMES.
THESE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE PERIODS OF BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VSBYS
TO MVFR CAT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
VSBYS IN BLOWING DUST SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS WELL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN
HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED SAT
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU EARLY LATE TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY VFR CIGS THRU SAT EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS...WITH THE TIMING OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY S WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SAT
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM...
GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS STARTING AT MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AS STRONG GUSTS MAY BEGIN A FEW HOURS EARLIER. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...NEAR SANTA CRUZ ISLAND AND SOUTHWARD TO CATALINA ISLAND. IT
IS LIKELY THAT LOCAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA
STARTING AROUND 2 PM SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. STRONG TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL GROW TO 10 TO
13 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND TO 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...SO THAT NAVIGATION WILL BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/SUKUP
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 250523 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1025 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AND NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES ON SATURDAY. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES MOUNTAINS SATURDAY TO SUNDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL
FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...THICK MOIST LAYER WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
PERSIST OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM THE MTNS TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE L.A. COUNTY
MTNS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES ALTHO HI CLOUDS
WERE QUICKLY APPROACHING THIS AREA. OVERNIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND INTO THE SLO COUNTY
INTERIOR VALLEYS...WHILE THE CLOUDINESS PERSISTS OVER VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES. GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE IN THE ANTELOPE VLY THIS EVENING
BUT WERE GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO ADVISORY LEVELS (SUSTAINED 35
MPH...FREQUENT GUSTS TO 45 MPH)...THEREFORE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS AREA WILL PROBABLY BE CANCELLED THIS EVENING. SOME GUSTY NW
WINDS LINGER ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL...BUT WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO NRN CA TONIGHT THEN SLIDE QUICKLY
THRU ERN AND SERN CA ON SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OFF THE
CA COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH A BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
SRN CA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN CA
SUN NIGHT AND MON...WITH A CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR SRN
CA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA ON SAT ALONG WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT WILL BE
OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALSO ON THE N MTN
SLOPES OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...WHICH SHOULD LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES ON SAT SHOULD RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH. EVEN STRONGER W WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ANTELOPE VLY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE LIKELY SAT
AFTERNOON FOR THE ANTELOPE VLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. COASTAL AND SOME
VLY AREAS SHOULD ALSO HAVE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THANKS TO STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS...WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE. STRONG AND GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MTNS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR SAT
EVENING AND LINGER THRU EARLY SUN MORNING...AND HIGH WIND WATCHES
ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE HIGH WIND
WATCHES. WITH THE FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
EARLY SUN...DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THE
DAY ON SUN.

WINDS WILL TURN NE AND BE GUSTY OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A.COUNTIES
LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY BELOW AND THRU THE
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED BY EARLY MON MORNING FOR THE SANTA MONICA MTNS...VTU COUNTY
VLYS...SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND THE  WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VLY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS OVER SWRN CA ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ON
SAT. TEMPS WILL THEN WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
AREAS ON SUN...AND TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ON MON...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST VLYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...LONG-RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT
TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE
FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THOUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0520Z

AT 0435Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 5900 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 6800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 5
DEG C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAFS. THE COASTAL AND VLY
AIRFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT
TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL AFFECT KSMX AND KSBP SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY W WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING AT KSBA...KOXR...KLAX AND
KLGB...WITH GUSTY S TO SE WINDS AT KBUR AND KVNY. FOR KWJF AND
KPMD...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THRU SAT EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY W TO
SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHO WINDS WILL BE EVEN
STRONGER SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KT AT TIMES.
THESE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE PERIODS OF BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VSBYS
TO MVFR CAT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
VSBYS IN BLOWING DUST SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS WELL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN
HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED SAT
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU EARLY LATE TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY VFR CIGS THRU SAT EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS...WITH THE TIMING OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY S WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SAT
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM...
GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS STARTING AT MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AS STRONG GUSTS MAY BEGIN A FEW HOURS EARLIER. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...NEAR SANTA CRUZ ISLAND AND SOUTHWARD TO CATALINA ISLAND. IT
IS LIKELY THAT LOCAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA
STARTING AROUND 2 PM SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. STRONG TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL GROW TO 10 TO
13 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND TO 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...SO THAT NAVIGATION WILL BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/SUKUP
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 250355
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
855 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AND NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES ON SATURDAY. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES MOUNTAINS SATURDAY TO SUNDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL
FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...THICK MOIST LAYER WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
PERSIST OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM THE MTNS TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE L.A. COUNTY
MTNS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES ALTHO HI CLOUDS
WERE QUICKLY APPROACHING THIS AREA. OVERNIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND INTO THE SLO COUNTY
INTERIOR VALLEYS...WHILE THE CLOUDINESS PERSISTS OVER VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES. GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE IN THE ANTELOPE VLY THIS EVENING
BUT WERE GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO ADVISORY LEVELS (SUSTAINED 35
MPH...FREQUENT GUSTS TO 45 MPH)...THEREFORE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS AREA WILL PROBABLY BE CANCELLED THIS EVENING. SOME GUSTY NW
WINDS LINGER ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL...BUT WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO NRN CA TONIGHT THEN SLIDE QUICKLY
THRU ERN AND SERN CA ON SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OFF THE
CA COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH A BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
SRN CA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN CA
SUN NIGHT AND MON...WITH A CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR SRN
CA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA ON SAT ALONG WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT WILL BE
OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALSO ON THE N MTN
SLOPES OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...WHICH SHOULD LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES ON SAT SHOULD RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH. EVEN STRONGER W WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ANTELOPE VLY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE LIKELY SAT
AFTERNOON FOR THE ANTELOPE VLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. COASTAL AND SOME
VLY AREAS SHOULD ALSO HAVE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THANKS TO STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS...WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE. STRONG AND GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MTNS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR SAT
EVENING AND LINGER THRU EARLY SUN MORNING...AND HIGH WIND WATCHES
ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE HIGH WIND
WATCHES. WITH THE FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
EARLY SUN...DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THE
DAY ON SUN.

WINDS WILL TURN NE AND BE GUSTY OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A.COUNTIES
LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY BELOW AND THRU THE
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED BY EARLY MON MORNING FOR THE SANTA MONICA MTNS...VTU COUNTY
VLYS...SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND THE  WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VLY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS OVER SWRN CA ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ON
SAT. TEMPS WILL THEN WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
AREAS ON SUN...AND TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ON MON...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST VLYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...LONG-RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT
TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE
FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THOUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0015Z.

AT 2315Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 6000 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 7100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 6
DEG C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. THE COASTAL AND VLY
AIRFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
MAINLY LATER TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CIGS AT TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL AFFECT KSMX AND KSBP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY W WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON AT
KSBA...KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB...WITH GUSTY S TO SE WINDS AT KBUR AND
KVNY. FOR KWJF AND KPMD...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THRU SAT. STRONG AND
GUSTY W TO SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHO WINDS
WILL BE EVEN STRONGER SAT AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KT AT TIMES.
THESE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE PERIODS OF BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VSBYS
TO MVFR CAT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
VSBYS IN BLOWING DUST SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS
AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES CAN BE
EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT
TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY S WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM...
GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS STARTING AT MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AS STRONG GUSTS MAY BEGIN A FEW HOURS EARLIER. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...NEAR SANTA CRUZ ISLAND AND SOUTHWARD TO CATALINA ISLAND. IT
IS LIKELY THAT LOCAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA
STARTING AROUND 2 PM SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. STRONG TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL GROW TO 10 TO
13 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND TO 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...SO THAT NAVIGATION WILL BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/SUKUP
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 250355
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
855 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AND NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES ON SATURDAY. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES MOUNTAINS SATURDAY TO SUNDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL
FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...THICK MOIST LAYER WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
PERSIST OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM THE MTNS TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE L.A. COUNTY
MTNS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES ALTHO HI CLOUDS
WERE QUICKLY APPROACHING THIS AREA. OVERNIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND INTO THE SLO COUNTY
INTERIOR VALLEYS...WHILE THE CLOUDINESS PERSISTS OVER VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES. GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE IN THE ANTELOPE VLY THIS EVENING
BUT WERE GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO ADVISORY LEVELS (SUSTAINED 35
MPH...FREQUENT GUSTS TO 45 MPH)...THEREFORE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS AREA WILL PROBABLY BE CANCELLED THIS EVENING. SOME GUSTY NW
WINDS LINGER ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL...BUT WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO NRN CA TONIGHT THEN SLIDE QUICKLY
THRU ERN AND SERN CA ON SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OFF THE
CA COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH A BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
SRN CA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN CA
SUN NIGHT AND MON...WITH A CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR SRN
CA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA ON SAT ALONG WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT WILL BE
OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALSO ON THE N MTN
SLOPES OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...WHICH SHOULD LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES ON SAT SHOULD RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH. EVEN STRONGER W WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ANTELOPE VLY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE LIKELY SAT
AFTERNOON FOR THE ANTELOPE VLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. COASTAL AND SOME
VLY AREAS SHOULD ALSO HAVE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THANKS TO STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS...WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE. STRONG AND GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MTNS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR SAT
EVENING AND LINGER THRU EARLY SUN MORNING...AND HIGH WIND WATCHES
ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE HIGH WIND
WATCHES. WITH THE FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
EARLY SUN...DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THE
DAY ON SUN.

WINDS WILL TURN NE AND BE GUSTY OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A.COUNTIES
LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY BELOW AND THRU THE
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED BY EARLY MON MORNING FOR THE SANTA MONICA MTNS...VTU COUNTY
VLYS...SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND THE  WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VLY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS OVER SWRN CA ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ON
SAT. TEMPS WILL THEN WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
AREAS ON SUN...AND TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ON MON...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST VLYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...LONG-RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT
TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE
FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THOUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0015Z.

AT 2315Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 6000 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 7100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 6
DEG C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. THE COASTAL AND VLY
AIRFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
MAINLY LATER TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CIGS AT TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL AFFECT KSMX AND KSBP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY W WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON AT
KSBA...KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB...WITH GUSTY S TO SE WINDS AT KBUR AND
KVNY. FOR KWJF AND KPMD...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THRU SAT. STRONG AND
GUSTY W TO SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHO WINDS
WILL BE EVEN STRONGER SAT AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KT AT TIMES.
THESE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE PERIODS OF BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VSBYS
TO MVFR CAT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
VSBYS IN BLOWING DUST SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS
AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES CAN BE
EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT
TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY S WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM...
GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS STARTING AT MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AS STRONG GUSTS MAY BEGIN A FEW HOURS EARLIER. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...NEAR SANTA CRUZ ISLAND AND SOUTHWARD TO CATALINA ISLAND. IT
IS LIKELY THAT LOCAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA
STARTING AROUND 2 PM SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. STRONG TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL GROW TO 10 TO
13 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND TO 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...SO THAT NAVIGATION WILL BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/SUKUP
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 250018 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
520 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST AND NORTH
WINDS. WARMING AND DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOP. COOLER WEATHER WILL
LIKELY RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. LAX AROUND 5000 FEET AND
VBG AROUND 3000 FEET. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MIX OUT ACROSS LA AND
VENTURA COUNTY TODAY DESPITE A VERY WEAK INVERSION AT LAX. STARTING
TO SEE SOME EVIDENCE OF REVERSE CLEARING NOW...BUT MOST PLACES COULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. NO SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN THE
MOUNTAINS YET...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE BUCKET TIPS WITH THE
DEEP MOIST LAYER. PROBABLY WON`T SEE MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
REST OF TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL EAST.

GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE A.V. ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT
(+8MB LAX-DAG) HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST PLACES HAVE BEEN GUSTING 30-40 MPH...WITH 45-50 MPH GUSTS IN
THE LAKE PALMDALE AREA. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE
A.V. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...BUT IS FOLLOWED BY A HIGH WIND
WATCH. DON`T PLAN ON UPGRADING TO A WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON
UPDATE...AS IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SURE THING. WILL LET THE EVENING
AND MIDNIGHT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS. LOCAL NW
GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT...BUT DON`T PLAN ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES FOR THIS AREA.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. AN INSIDE SLIDER AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. WITH THIS FRONT THERE WILL BE SOME
GUSTY W-SW WINDS ALONG THE LA/VENTURA COAST THAT COULD REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND N BEHIND THE FRONT. A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE ADDED
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
I-5 CORRIDOR. THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE A.V. WILL BE EXTENDED
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. OTHER AREAS THAT MAY
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INCLUDE THE SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...THE SBA
SOUTH COAST (MOSTLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS)...AND THE SANTA
CLARITA VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...SOME RAIN IS LIKELY N OF PT CONCEPTION ON
SATURDAY. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THESE
AREAS...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT...PROBABLY ON THE
ORDER OF 0.10 - 0.25". MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS HIGHLY UNLIKELY FOR THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION DUE TO NW FLOW...AND ANY
PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. SOME
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING ON THE N SLOPES.
SNOW WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE BY MONDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY ADVISORY LEVEL SANTA ANA WINDS FOR THAT TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH THE NE
WINDS AND A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT THE WARM-UP WILL
ACTUALLY BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...

LONG-RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL...RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST THOUGH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A RETURN OF THE
MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SOMETIME BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0015Z.

AT 2315Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 6000 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 7100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 6
DEG C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. THE COASTAL AND VLY
AIRFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
MAINLY LATER TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CIGS AT TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL AFFECT KSMX AND KSBP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY W WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON AT
KSBA...KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB...WITH GUSTY S TO SE WINDS AT KBUR AND
KVNY. FOR KWJF AND KPMD...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THRU SAT. STRONG AND
GUSTY W TO SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHO WINDS
WILL BE EVEN STRONGER SAT AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KT AT TIMES.
THESE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE PERIODS OF BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VSBYS
TO MVFR CAT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
VSBYS IN BLOWING DUST SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS
AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES CAN BE
EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT
TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY S WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...24/200 PM...

A GALE WATCH CONTINUES FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL 10-60
NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST TONIGHT FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND. IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
SANTA BARBARA THROUGH SAN PEDRO BASINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...LABER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 250018 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
520 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST AND NORTH
WINDS. WARMING AND DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOP. COOLER WEATHER WILL
LIKELY RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. LAX AROUND 5000 FEET AND
VBG AROUND 3000 FEET. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MIX OUT ACROSS LA AND
VENTURA COUNTY TODAY DESPITE A VERY WEAK INVERSION AT LAX. STARTING
TO SEE SOME EVIDENCE OF REVERSE CLEARING NOW...BUT MOST PLACES COULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. NO SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN THE
MOUNTAINS YET...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE BUCKET TIPS WITH THE
DEEP MOIST LAYER. PROBABLY WON`T SEE MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
REST OF TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL EAST.

GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE A.V. ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT
(+8MB LAX-DAG) HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST PLACES HAVE BEEN GUSTING 30-40 MPH...WITH 45-50 MPH GUSTS IN
THE LAKE PALMDALE AREA. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE
A.V. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...BUT IS FOLLOWED BY A HIGH WIND
WATCH. DON`T PLAN ON UPGRADING TO A WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON
UPDATE...AS IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SURE THING. WILL LET THE EVENING
AND MIDNIGHT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS. LOCAL NW
GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT...BUT DON`T PLAN ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES FOR THIS AREA.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. AN INSIDE SLIDER AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. WITH THIS FRONT THERE WILL BE SOME
GUSTY W-SW WINDS ALONG THE LA/VENTURA COAST THAT COULD REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND N BEHIND THE FRONT. A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE ADDED
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
I-5 CORRIDOR. THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE A.V. WILL BE EXTENDED
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. OTHER AREAS THAT MAY
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INCLUDE THE SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...THE SBA
SOUTH COAST (MOSTLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS)...AND THE SANTA
CLARITA VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...SOME RAIN IS LIKELY N OF PT CONCEPTION ON
SATURDAY. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THESE
AREAS...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT...PROBABLY ON THE
ORDER OF 0.10 - 0.25". MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS HIGHLY UNLIKELY FOR THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION DUE TO NW FLOW...AND ANY
PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. SOME
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING ON THE N SLOPES.
SNOW WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE BY MONDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY ADVISORY LEVEL SANTA ANA WINDS FOR THAT TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH THE NE
WINDS AND A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT THE WARM-UP WILL
ACTUALLY BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...

LONG-RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL...RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST THOUGH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A RETURN OF THE
MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SOMETIME BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0015Z.

AT 2315Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 6000 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 7100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 6
DEG C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. THE COASTAL AND VLY
AIRFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
MAINLY LATER TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CIGS AT TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL AFFECT KSMX AND KSBP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY W WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON AT
KSBA...KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB...WITH GUSTY S TO SE WINDS AT KBUR AND
KVNY. FOR KWJF AND KPMD...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THRU SAT. STRONG AND
GUSTY W TO SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHO WINDS
WILL BE EVEN STRONGER SAT AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KT AT TIMES.
THESE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE PERIODS OF BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VSBYS
TO MVFR CAT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
VSBYS IN BLOWING DUST SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS
AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES CAN BE
EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT
TIMES...WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY S WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...24/200 PM...

A GALE WATCH CONTINUES FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL 10-60
NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST TONIGHT FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND. IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
SANTA BARBARA THROUGH SAN PEDRO BASINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...LABER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 242044
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST AND NORTH
WINDS. WARMING AND DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOP. COOLER WEATHER WILL
LIKELY RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. LAX AROUND 5000 FEET AND
VBG AROUND 3000 FEET. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MIX OUT ACROSS LA AND
VENTURA COUNTY TODAY DESPITE A VERY WEAK INVERSION AT LAX. STARTING
TO SEE SOME EVIDENCE OF REVERSE CLEARING NOW...BUT MOST PLACES COULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. NO SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN THE
MOUNTAINS YET...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE BUCKET TIPS WITH THE
DEEP MOIST LAYER. PROBABLY WON`T SEE MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
REST OF TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL EAST.

GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE A.V. ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT
(+8MB LAX-DAG) HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST PLACES HAVE BEEN GUSTING 30-40 MPH...WITH 45-50 MPH GUSTS IN
THE LAKE PALMDALE AREA. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE
A.V. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...BUT IS FOLLOWED BY A HIGH WIND
WATCH. DON`T PLAN ON UPGRADING TO A WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON
UPDATE...AS IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SURE THING. WILL LET THE EVENING
AND MIDNIGHT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS. LOCAL NW
GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT...BUT DON`T PLAN ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES FOR THIS AREA.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. AN INSIDE SLIDER AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. WITH THIS FRONT THERE WILL BE SOME
GUSTY W-SW WINDS ALONG THE LA/VENTURA COAST THAT COULD REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND N BEHIND THE FRONT. A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE ADDED
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
I-5 CORRIDOR. THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE A.V. WILL BE EXTENDED
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. OTHER AREAS THAT MAY
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INCLUDE THE SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...THE SBA
SOUTH COAST (MOSTLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS)...AND THE SANTA
CLARITA VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...SOME RAIN IS LIKELY N OF PT CONCEPTION ON
SATURDAY. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THESE
AREAS...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT...PROBABLY ON THE
ORDER OF 0.10 - 0.25". MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS HIGHLY UNLIKELY FOR THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION DUE TO NW FLOW...AND ANY
PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. SOME
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING ON THE N SLOPES.
SNOW WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE BY MONDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY ADVISORY LEVEL SANTA ANA WINDS FOR THAT TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH THE NE
WINDS AND A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT THE WARM-UP WILL
ACTUALLY BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...

LONG-RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL...RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST THOUGH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE WILL LIKLY BE A RETURN OF THE
MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SOMETIME BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST BETWEEN
25/00-25/12Z THEN BECOME STRONG NORTH AFTER 25/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MODERATE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 25/03Z AND AFTER 25/17Z OTHERWISE MIXED
WEAK NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1520Z IS 4525 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 5928 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 07 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 24/19Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 040 BETWEEN
24/19-25/07Z. CHANCE CIGS 025 BETWEEN 25/07-25/17Z AND CHANCE CIGS
035 THEREAFTER.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 24/21Z AND CHANCE CIGS 040-050
BETWEEN 24/21-25/04Z. CHANCE CIGS 022 BY 25/11Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...24/200 PM...

A GALE WATCH CONTINUES FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL 10-60
NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST TONIGHT FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND. IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
SANTA BARBARA THROUGH SAN PEDRO BASINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...LABER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 242044
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST AND NORTH
WINDS. WARMING AND DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOP. COOLER WEATHER WILL
LIKELY RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. LAX AROUND 5000 FEET AND
VBG AROUND 3000 FEET. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MIX OUT ACROSS LA AND
VENTURA COUNTY TODAY DESPITE A VERY WEAK INVERSION AT LAX. STARTING
TO SEE SOME EVIDENCE OF REVERSE CLEARING NOW...BUT MOST PLACES COULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. NO SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN THE
MOUNTAINS YET...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE BUCKET TIPS WITH THE
DEEP MOIST LAYER. PROBABLY WON`T SEE MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
REST OF TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL EAST.

GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE A.V. ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT
(+8MB LAX-DAG) HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST PLACES HAVE BEEN GUSTING 30-40 MPH...WITH 45-50 MPH GUSTS IN
THE LAKE PALMDALE AREA. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE
A.V. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...BUT IS FOLLOWED BY A HIGH WIND
WATCH. DON`T PLAN ON UPGRADING TO A WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON
UPDATE...AS IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SURE THING. WILL LET THE EVENING
AND MIDNIGHT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS. LOCAL NW
GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT...BUT DON`T PLAN ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES FOR THIS AREA.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. AN INSIDE SLIDER AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. WITH THIS FRONT THERE WILL BE SOME
GUSTY W-SW WINDS ALONG THE LA/VENTURA COAST THAT COULD REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND N BEHIND THE FRONT. A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE ADDED
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
I-5 CORRIDOR. THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE A.V. WILL BE EXTENDED
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. OTHER AREAS THAT MAY
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INCLUDE THE SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...THE SBA
SOUTH COAST (MOSTLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS)...AND THE SANTA
CLARITA VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...SOME RAIN IS LIKELY N OF PT CONCEPTION ON
SATURDAY. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THESE
AREAS...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT...PROBABLY ON THE
ORDER OF 0.10 - 0.25". MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS HIGHLY UNLIKELY FOR THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION DUE TO NW FLOW...AND ANY
PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. SOME
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING ON THE N SLOPES.
SNOW WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE BY MONDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY ADVISORY LEVEL SANTA ANA WINDS FOR THAT TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH THE NE
WINDS AND A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT THE WARM-UP WILL
ACTUALLY BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...

LONG-RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL...RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST THOUGH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE WILL LIKLY BE A RETURN OF THE
MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SOMETIME BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST BETWEEN
25/00-25/12Z THEN BECOME STRONG NORTH AFTER 25/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MODERATE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 25/03Z AND AFTER 25/17Z OTHERWISE MIXED
WEAK NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1520Z IS 4525 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 5928 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 07 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 24/19Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 040 BETWEEN
24/19-25/07Z. CHANCE CIGS 025 BETWEEN 25/07-25/17Z AND CHANCE CIGS
035 THEREAFTER.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 24/21Z AND CHANCE CIGS 040-050
BETWEEN 24/21-25/04Z. CHANCE CIGS 022 BY 25/11Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...24/200 PM...

A GALE WATCH CONTINUES FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL 10-60
NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST TONIGHT FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND. IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
SANTA BARBARA THROUGH SAN PEDRO BASINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...LABER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 241749 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1048 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST AND NORTH
WINDS. WARMING AND DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. JUST TWEAKED
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT...MAINLY FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND VENTURA
COAST WHERE IT HAS BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING.
SBA SOUTH COAST COULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH NW FLOW...BUT
THE VENTURA COAST SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY GOES
ON.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY
IS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE AV TODAY...FOR SW WINDS DRIVEN BY A
STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT (ABOUT +8 LAX-DAG THIS AFTERNOON). WILL LOOK
AT POSSIBLY PUTTING A WIND ADVISORY OUT FOR THE LA/VENTURA MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT AS NW FLOW INCREASES ALOFT. MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WITH THE
WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. W-NW WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW-N AS AN INSIDE SLIDER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
HIGH WINDS WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE AV TOMORROW...BUT WILL
ALSO CONSIDER ADDING THE SBA/VTA/LA MOUNTAINS WITH THE AFTERNOON
UPDATE. OTHER AREAS THAT MAY REACH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY
NIGHT INCLUDE THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA HAS FILLED IN AND MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO MAINTAIN
AN ALREADY MOIST LAYER AROUND 5000 FT DEEP OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS AND COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE WILL BE A FEW FLAT CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LA/VTU
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME REVERSE CLEARING ALONG THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS...FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES
TODAY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING N OF POINT
CONCEPTION AS NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. AT THIS
TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR TO STAY OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN
FURTHER BY SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED VALID FROM
9 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 9 PM SAT EVENING. EXPECTING SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST TO LOWER VISIBILITY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. SO DRIVERS ON HIGHWAYS 14 AND 138 NEED TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST...SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE.  THE
LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE AFFECTED AS WELL WITH GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

GOING BACK TO SATURDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH INLAND CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DIGGING TROUGH.
850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS S OF
POINT CONCEPTION DUE TO THE NW DIRECTION. HOWEVER THE WINDS BECOME
MORE CYCLONIC NEAR SOUTHERN LA COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS FROM LONG BEACH UP TO THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NRN SLOPES OF THE VENTURA AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
DUE TO THE MOIST FLOW BANKING UP AGAINST THE NRN SLOPES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE AS THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPS A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY SUNDAY...THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS REBOUND DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE STATE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL WARM 6 TO 10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. BEACHES WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
OVER CALIFORNIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CALIFORNIA AND
WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO SOAR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MAINLY FOR
LA/VTU COUNTIES...BUT THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE SOME WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 80S AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS THE USUAL
WIND PRONE LOCATIONS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO
BE JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BE A
BIT WEAKER ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO
THE EAST AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL HELP TEMPS LOWER A BIT AND BRING BACK THE ONSHORE FLOW WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AROUND LA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE WED. THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND MORE WIDESPREAD COASTAL NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST BETWEEN
25/00-25/12Z THEN BECOME STRONG NORTH AFTER 25/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MODERATE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 25/03Z AND AFTER 25/17Z OTHERWISE MIXED
WEAK NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1520Z IS 4525 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 5928 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 07 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 24/19Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 040 BETWEEN
24/19-25/07Z. CHANCE CIGS 025 BETWEEN 25/07-25/17Z AND CHANCE CIGS
035 THEREAFTER.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 24/21Z AND CHANCE CIGS 040-050
BETWEEN 24/21-25/04Z. CHANCE CIGS 022 BY 25/11Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM...

A GALE WATCH CONTINUES FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL 10-60
NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST TONIGHT FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND. IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
SANTA BARBARA THROUGH SAN PEDRO BASINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/KAPLAN
AVIATION...30
MARINE...33
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 241749 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1048 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST AND NORTH
WINDS. WARMING AND DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. JUST TWEAKED
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT...MAINLY FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND VENTURA
COAST WHERE IT HAS BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING.
SBA SOUTH COAST COULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH NW FLOW...BUT
THE VENTURA COAST SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY GOES
ON.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY
IS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE AV TODAY...FOR SW WINDS DRIVEN BY A
STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT (ABOUT +8 LAX-DAG THIS AFTERNOON). WILL LOOK
AT POSSIBLY PUTTING A WIND ADVISORY OUT FOR THE LA/VENTURA MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT AS NW FLOW INCREASES ALOFT. MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WITH THE
WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. W-NW WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW-N AS AN INSIDE SLIDER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
HIGH WINDS WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE AV TOMORROW...BUT WILL
ALSO CONSIDER ADDING THE SBA/VTA/LA MOUNTAINS WITH THE AFTERNOON
UPDATE. OTHER AREAS THAT MAY REACH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY
NIGHT INCLUDE THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA HAS FILLED IN AND MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO MAINTAIN
AN ALREADY MOIST LAYER AROUND 5000 FT DEEP OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS AND COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE WILL BE A FEW FLAT CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LA/VTU
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME REVERSE CLEARING ALONG THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS...FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES
TODAY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING N OF POINT
CONCEPTION AS NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. AT THIS
TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR TO STAY OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN
FURTHER BY SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED VALID FROM
9 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 9 PM SAT EVENING. EXPECTING SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST TO LOWER VISIBILITY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. SO DRIVERS ON HIGHWAYS 14 AND 138 NEED TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST...SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE.  THE
LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE AFFECTED AS WELL WITH GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

GOING BACK TO SATURDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH INLAND CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DIGGING TROUGH.
850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS S OF
POINT CONCEPTION DUE TO THE NW DIRECTION. HOWEVER THE WINDS BECOME
MORE CYCLONIC NEAR SOUTHERN LA COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS FROM LONG BEACH UP TO THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NRN SLOPES OF THE VENTURA AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
DUE TO THE MOIST FLOW BANKING UP AGAINST THE NRN SLOPES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE AS THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPS A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY SUNDAY...THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS REBOUND DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE STATE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL WARM 6 TO 10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. BEACHES WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
OVER CALIFORNIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CALIFORNIA AND
WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO SOAR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MAINLY FOR
LA/VTU COUNTIES...BUT THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE SOME WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 80S AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS THE USUAL
WIND PRONE LOCATIONS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO
BE JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BE A
BIT WEAKER ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO
THE EAST AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL HELP TEMPS LOWER A BIT AND BRING BACK THE ONSHORE FLOW WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AROUND LA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE WED. THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND MORE WIDESPREAD COASTAL NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST BETWEEN
25/00-25/12Z THEN BECOME STRONG NORTH AFTER 25/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MODERATE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 25/03Z AND AFTER 25/17Z OTHERWISE MIXED
WEAK NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1520Z IS 4525 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 5928 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 07 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 24/19Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 040 BETWEEN
24/19-25/07Z. CHANCE CIGS 025 BETWEEN 25/07-25/17Z AND CHANCE CIGS
035 THEREAFTER.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 24/21Z AND CHANCE CIGS 040-050
BETWEEN 24/21-25/04Z. CHANCE CIGS 022 BY 25/11Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM...

A GALE WATCH CONTINUES FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL 10-60
NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST TONIGHT FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND. IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
SANTA BARBARA THROUGH SAN PEDRO BASINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/KAPLAN
AVIATION...30
MARINE...33
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 241640 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST AND NORTH
WINDS. WARMING AND DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. JUST TWEAKED
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT...MAINLY FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND VENTURA
COAST WHERE IT HAS BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING.
SBA SOUTH COAST COULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH NW FLOW...BUT
THE VENTURA COAST SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY GOES
ON.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY
IS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE AV TODAY...FOR SW WINDS DRIVEN BY A
STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT (ABOUT +8 LAX-DAG THIS AFTERNOON). WILL LOOK
AT POSSIBLY PUTTING A WIND ADVISORY OUT FOR THE LA/VENTURA MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT AS NW FLOW INCREASES ALOFT. MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WITH THE
WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. W-NW WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW-N AS AN INSIDE SLIDER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
HIGH WINDS WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE AV TOMORROW...BUT WILL
ALSO CONSIDER ADDING THE SBA/VTA/LA MOUNTAINS WITH THE AFTERNOON
UPDATE. OTHER AREAS THAT MAY REACH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY
NIGHT INCLUDE THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA HAS FILLED IN AND MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO MAINTAIN
AN ALREADY MOIST LAYER AROUND 5000 FT DEEP OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS AND COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE WILL BE A FEW FLAT CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LA/VTU
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME REVERSE CLEARING ALONG THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS...FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES
TODAY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING N OF POINT
CONCEPTION AS NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. AT THIS
TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR TO STAY OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN
FURTHER BY SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED VALID FROM
9 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 9 PM SAT EVENING. EXPECTING SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST TO LOWER VISIBILITY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. SO DRIVERS ON HIGHWAYS 14 AND 138 NEED TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST...SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE.  THE
LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE AFFECTED AS WELL WITH GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

GOING BACK TO SATURDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH INLAND CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DIGGING TROUGH.
850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS S OF
POINT CONCEPTION DUE TO THE NW DIRECTION. HOWEVER THE WINDS BECOME
MORE CYCLONIC NEAR SOUTHERN LA COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS FROM LONG BEACH UP TO THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NRN SLOPES OF THE VENTURA AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
DUE TO THE MOIST FLOW BANKING UP AGAINST THE NRN SLOPES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE AS THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPS A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY SUNDAY...THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS REBOUND DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE STATE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL WARM 6 TO 10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. BEACHES WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
OVER CALIFORNIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CALIFORNIA AND
WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO SOAR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MAINLY FOR
LA/VTU COUNTIES...BUT THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE SOME WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 80S AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS THE USUAL
WIND PRONE LOCATIONS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO
BE JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BE A
BIT WEAKER ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO
THE EAST AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL HELP TEMPS LOWER A BIT AND BRING BACK THE ONSHORE FLOW WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AROUND LA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE WED. THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND MORE WIDESPREAD COASTAL NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1100Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE A BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN MVFR DECK THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY
NON-DESERT TAF SITES. THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE
TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATIONS AND TIMING.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
BLOWING DUST AND SAND AT BOTH KWJF AND KPMD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME LGT TO OCCASIONALLY MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS 12Z-20Z. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF RETURN IS LOW.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS 12Z-20Z. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF RETURN IS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM...

A GALE WATCH CONTINUES FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL 10-60
NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST TONIGHT FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND. IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
SANTA BARBARA THROUGH SAN PEDRO BASINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/KAPLAN
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...33
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 241104 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
405 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP MOIST LAYER AROUND LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES COULD
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...THEN DRY WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA HAS FILLED IN AND MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO MAINTAIN
AN ALREADY MOIST LAYER AROUND 5000 FT DEEP OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS AND COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE WILL BE A FEW FLAT CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LA/VTU
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME REVERSE CLEARING ALONG THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS...FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES
TODAY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING N OF POINT
CONCEPTION AS NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. AT THIS
TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR TO STAY OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN
FURTHER BY SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED VALID FROM
9 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 9 PM SAT EVENING. EXPECTING SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST TO LOWER VISIBILITY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. SO DRIVERS ON HIGHWAYS 14 AND 138 NEED TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST...SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE.  THE
LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE AFFECTED AS WELL WITH GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

GOING BACK TO SATURDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH INLAND CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DIGGING TROUGH.
850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS S OF
POINT CONCEPTION DUE TO THE NW DIRECTION. HOWEVER THE WINDS BECOME
MORE CYCLONIC NEAR SOUTHERN LA COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS FROM LONG BEACH UP TO THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NRN SLOPES OF THE VENTURA AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
DUE TO THE MOIST FLOW BANKING UP AGAINST THE NRN SLOPES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE AS THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPS A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY SUNDAY...THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS REBOUND DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE STATE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL WARM 6 TO 10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. BEACHES WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
OVER CALIFORNIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CALIFORNIA AND
WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO SOAR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MAINLY FOR
LA/VTU COUNTIES...BUT THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE SOME WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 80S AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS THE USUAL
WIND PRONE LOCATIONS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO
BE JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BE A
BIT WEAKER ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO
THE EAST AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL HELP TEMPS LOWER A BIT AND BRING BACK THE ONSHORE FLOW WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AROUND LA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE WED. THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND MORE WIDESPREAD COASTAL NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1100Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE A BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN MVFR DECK THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY
NON-DESERT TAF SITES. THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE
TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATIONS AND TIMING.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
BLOWING DUST AND SAND AT BOTH KWJF AND KPMD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME LGT TO OCCASIONALLY MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS 12Z-20Z. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF RETURN IS LOW.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS 12Z-20Z. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF RETURN IS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...24/220 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING
AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT STILL WITH A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING. GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS (ALTHOUGH LOCAL GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL). FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 241104 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
405 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP MOIST LAYER AROUND LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES COULD
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...THEN DRY WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA HAS FILLED IN AND MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO MAINTAIN
AN ALREADY MOIST LAYER AROUND 5000 FT DEEP OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS AND COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE WILL BE A FEW FLAT CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LA/VTU
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME REVERSE CLEARING ALONG THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS...FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES
TODAY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING N OF POINT
CONCEPTION AS NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. AT THIS
TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR TO STAY OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN
FURTHER BY SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED VALID FROM
9 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 9 PM SAT EVENING. EXPECTING SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST TO LOWER VISIBILITY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. SO DRIVERS ON HIGHWAYS 14 AND 138 NEED TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST...SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE.  THE
LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE AFFECTED AS WELL WITH GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

GOING BACK TO SATURDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH INLAND CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DIGGING TROUGH.
850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS S OF
POINT CONCEPTION DUE TO THE NW DIRECTION. HOWEVER THE WINDS BECOME
MORE CYCLONIC NEAR SOUTHERN LA COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS FROM LONG BEACH UP TO THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NRN SLOPES OF THE VENTURA AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
DUE TO THE MOIST FLOW BANKING UP AGAINST THE NRN SLOPES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE AS THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPS A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY SUNDAY...THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS REBOUND DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE STATE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL WARM 6 TO 10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. BEACHES WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
OVER CALIFORNIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CALIFORNIA AND
WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO SOAR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MAINLY FOR
LA/VTU COUNTIES...BUT THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE SOME WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 80S AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS THE USUAL
WIND PRONE LOCATIONS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO
BE JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BE A
BIT WEAKER ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO
THE EAST AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL HELP TEMPS LOWER A BIT AND BRING BACK THE ONSHORE FLOW WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AROUND LA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE WED. THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND MORE WIDESPREAD COASTAL NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1100Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE A BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN MVFR DECK THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY
NON-DESERT TAF SITES. THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE
TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATIONS AND TIMING.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
BLOWING DUST AND SAND AT BOTH KWJF AND KPMD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME LGT TO OCCASIONALLY MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS 12Z-20Z. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF RETURN IS LOW.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS 12Z-20Z. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF RETURN IS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...24/220 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING
AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT STILL WITH A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING. GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS (ALTHOUGH LOCAL GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL). FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 241104 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
405 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP MOIST LAYER AROUND LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES COULD
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...THEN DRY WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA HAS FILLED IN AND MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO MAINTAIN
AN ALREADY MOIST LAYER AROUND 5000 FT DEEP OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS AND COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE WILL BE A FEW FLAT CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LA/VTU
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME REVERSE CLEARING ALONG THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS...FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES
TODAY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING N OF POINT
CONCEPTION AS NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. AT THIS
TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR TO STAY OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN
FURTHER BY SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED VALID FROM
9 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 9 PM SAT EVENING. EXPECTING SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST TO LOWER VISIBILITY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. SO DRIVERS ON HIGHWAYS 14 AND 138 NEED TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST...SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE.  THE
LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE AFFECTED AS WELL WITH GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

GOING BACK TO SATURDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH INLAND CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DIGGING TROUGH.
850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS S OF
POINT CONCEPTION DUE TO THE NW DIRECTION. HOWEVER THE WINDS BECOME
MORE CYCLONIC NEAR SOUTHERN LA COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS FROM LONG BEACH UP TO THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NRN SLOPES OF THE VENTURA AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
DUE TO THE MOIST FLOW BANKING UP AGAINST THE NRN SLOPES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE AS THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPS A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY SUNDAY...THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS REBOUND DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE STATE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL WARM 6 TO 10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. BEACHES WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
OVER CALIFORNIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CALIFORNIA AND
WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO SOAR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MAINLY FOR
LA/VTU COUNTIES...BUT THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE SOME WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 80S AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS THE USUAL
WIND PRONE LOCATIONS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO
BE JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BE A
BIT WEAKER ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO
THE EAST AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL HELP TEMPS LOWER A BIT AND BRING BACK THE ONSHORE FLOW WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AROUND LA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE WED. THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND MORE WIDESPREAD COASTAL NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1100Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE A BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN MVFR DECK THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY
NON-DESERT TAF SITES. THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE
TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATIONS AND TIMING.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
BLOWING DUST AND SAND AT BOTH KWJF AND KPMD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME LGT TO OCCASIONALLY MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS 12Z-20Z. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF RETURN IS LOW.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS 12Z-20Z. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF RETURN IS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...24/220 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING
AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT STILL WITH A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING. GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS (ALTHOUGH LOCAL GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL). FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 241104 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
405 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP MOIST LAYER AROUND LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES COULD
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...THEN DRY WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA HAS FILLED IN AND MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO MAINTAIN
AN ALREADY MOIST LAYER AROUND 5000 FT DEEP OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS AND COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE WILL BE A FEW FLAT CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LA/VTU
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME REVERSE CLEARING ALONG THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS...FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES
TODAY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING N OF POINT
CONCEPTION AS NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. AT THIS
TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR TO STAY OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN
FURTHER BY SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED VALID FROM
9 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 9 PM SAT EVENING. EXPECTING SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST TO LOWER VISIBILITY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. SO DRIVERS ON HIGHWAYS 14 AND 138 NEED TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST...SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE.  THE
LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE AFFECTED AS WELL WITH GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

GOING BACK TO SATURDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH INLAND CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DIGGING TROUGH.
850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS S OF
POINT CONCEPTION DUE TO THE NW DIRECTION. HOWEVER THE WINDS BECOME
MORE CYCLONIC NEAR SOUTHERN LA COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS FROM LONG BEACH UP TO THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NRN SLOPES OF THE VENTURA AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
DUE TO THE MOIST FLOW BANKING UP AGAINST THE NRN SLOPES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE AS THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPS A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY SUNDAY...THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS REBOUND DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE STATE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL WARM 6 TO 10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. BEACHES WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
OVER CALIFORNIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CALIFORNIA AND
WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO SOAR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MAINLY FOR
LA/VTU COUNTIES...BUT THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE SOME WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 80S AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS THE USUAL
WIND PRONE LOCATIONS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO
BE JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BE A
BIT WEAKER ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO
THE EAST AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL HELP TEMPS LOWER A BIT AND BRING BACK THE ONSHORE FLOW WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AROUND LA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE WED. THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND MORE WIDESPREAD COASTAL NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1100Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE A BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN MVFR DECK THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY
NON-DESERT TAF SITES. THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE
TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATIONS AND TIMING.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
BLOWING DUST AND SAND AT BOTH KWJF AND KPMD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME LGT TO OCCASIONALLY MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS 12Z-20Z. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF RETURN IS LOW.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS 12Z-20Z. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF RETURN IS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...24/220 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING
AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT STILL WITH A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING. GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS (ALTHOUGH LOCAL GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL). FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 241020
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
255 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP MOIST LAYER AROUND LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES COULD
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...THEN DRY WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA HAS FILLED IN AND MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO MAINTAIN
AN ALREADY MOIST LAYER AROUND 5000 FT DEEP OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS AND COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE WILL BE A FEW FLAT CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LA/VTU
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME REVERSE CLEARING ALONG THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS...FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES
TODAY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING N OF POINT
CONCEPTION AS NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. AT THIS
TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR TO STAY OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN
FURTHER BY SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED VALID FROM
9 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 9 PM SAT EVENING. EXPECTING SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST TO LOWER VISIBILITY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. SO DRIVERS ON HIGHWAYS 14 AND 138 NEED TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST...SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE.  THE
LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE AFFECTED AS WELL WITH GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

GOING BACK TO SATURDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH INLAND CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DIGGING TROUGH.
850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS S OF
POINT CONCEPTION DUE TO THE NW DIRECTION. HOWEVER THE WINDS BECOME
MORE CYCLONIC NEAR SOUTHERN LA COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS FROM LONG BEACH UP TO THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NRN SLOPES OF THE VENTURA AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
DUE TO THE MOIST FLOW BANKING UP AGAINST THE NRN SLOPES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE AS THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPS A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY SUNDAY...THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS REBOUND DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE STATE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL WARM 6 TO 10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. BEACHES WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
OVER CALIFORNIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CALIFORNIA AND
WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO SOAR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MAINLY FOR
LA/VTU COUNTIES...BUT THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE SOME WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 80S AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS THE USUAL
WIND PRONE LOCATIONS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO
BE JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BE A
BIT WEAKER ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO
THE EAST AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL HELP TEMPS LOWER A BIT AND BRING BACK THE ONSHORE FLOW WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AROUND LA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE WED. THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND MORE WIDESPREAD COASTAL NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0510Z...

AT 045Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE A BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY TAF SITES. WILL ANTICIPATE A MVFR DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE MVFR DISSIPATE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
BLOWING DUST AND SAND AT BOTH KWJF AND KPMD.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUD DECK AFTER 07Z. TIMING OF THE
DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR DECK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUD DECK AFTER 07Z. TIMING OF THE
DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR DECK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...24/220 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING
AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT STILL WITH A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING. GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS (ALTHOUGH LOCAL GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL). FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 241020
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
255 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP MOIST LAYER AROUND LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES COULD
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...THEN DRY WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA HAS FILLED IN AND MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO MAINTAIN
AN ALREADY MOIST LAYER AROUND 5000 FT DEEP OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS AND COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE WILL BE A FEW FLAT CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LA/VTU
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME REVERSE CLEARING ALONG THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS...FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES
TODAY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING N OF POINT
CONCEPTION AS NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. AT THIS
TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR TO STAY OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN
FURTHER BY SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED VALID FROM
9 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 9 PM SAT EVENING. EXPECTING SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST TO LOWER VISIBILITY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. SO DRIVERS ON HIGHWAYS 14 AND 138 NEED TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST...SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE.  THE
LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE AFFECTED AS WELL WITH GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

GOING BACK TO SATURDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH INLAND CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DIGGING TROUGH.
850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS S OF
POINT CONCEPTION DUE TO THE NW DIRECTION. HOWEVER THE WINDS BECOME
MORE CYCLONIC NEAR SOUTHERN LA COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS FROM LONG BEACH UP TO THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NRN SLOPES OF THE VENTURA AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
DUE TO THE MOIST FLOW BANKING UP AGAINST THE NRN SLOPES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE AS THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPS A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY SUNDAY...THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS REBOUND DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE STATE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL WARM 6 TO 10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. BEACHES WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
OVER CALIFORNIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CALIFORNIA AND
WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO SOAR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MAINLY FOR
LA/VTU COUNTIES...BUT THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE SOME WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 80S AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS THE USUAL
WIND PRONE LOCATIONS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO
BE JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BE A
BIT WEAKER ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO
THE EAST AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL HELP TEMPS LOWER A BIT AND BRING BACK THE ONSHORE FLOW WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AROUND LA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE WED. THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND MORE WIDESPREAD COASTAL NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0510Z...

AT 045Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE A BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY TAF SITES. WILL ANTICIPATE A MVFR DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE MVFR DISSIPATE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
BLOWING DUST AND SAND AT BOTH KWJF AND KPMD.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUD DECK AFTER 07Z. TIMING OF THE
DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR DECK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUD DECK AFTER 07Z. TIMING OF THE
DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR DECK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...24/220 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING
AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT STILL WITH A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING. GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS (ALTHOUGH LOCAL GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL). FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 241020
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
255 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP MOIST LAYER AROUND LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES COULD
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...THEN DRY WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA HAS FILLED IN AND MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO MAINTAIN
AN ALREADY MOIST LAYER AROUND 5000 FT DEEP OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS AND COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE WILL BE A FEW FLAT CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LA/VTU
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME REVERSE CLEARING ALONG THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS...FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES
TODAY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING N OF POINT
CONCEPTION AS NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. AT THIS
TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR TO STAY OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN
FURTHER BY SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED VALID FROM
9 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 9 PM SAT EVENING. EXPECTING SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST TO LOWER VISIBILITY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. SO DRIVERS ON HIGHWAYS 14 AND 138 NEED TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST...SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE.  THE
LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE AFFECTED AS WELL WITH GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

GOING BACK TO SATURDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH INLAND CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DIGGING TROUGH.
850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS S OF
POINT CONCEPTION DUE TO THE NW DIRECTION. HOWEVER THE WINDS BECOME
MORE CYCLONIC NEAR SOUTHERN LA COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS FROM LONG BEACH UP TO THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NRN SLOPES OF THE VENTURA AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
DUE TO THE MOIST FLOW BANKING UP AGAINST THE NRN SLOPES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE AS THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPS A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY SUNDAY...THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS REBOUND DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE STATE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL WARM 6 TO 10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. BEACHES WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
OVER CALIFORNIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CALIFORNIA AND
WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO SOAR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MAINLY FOR
LA/VTU COUNTIES...BUT THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE SOME WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 80S AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS THE USUAL
WIND PRONE LOCATIONS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO
BE JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BE A
BIT WEAKER ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO
THE EAST AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL HELP TEMPS LOWER A BIT AND BRING BACK THE ONSHORE FLOW WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AROUND LA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE WED. THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND MORE WIDESPREAD COASTAL NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0510Z...

AT 045Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE A BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY TAF SITES. WILL ANTICIPATE A MVFR DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE MVFR DISSIPATE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
BLOWING DUST AND SAND AT BOTH KWJF AND KPMD.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUD DECK AFTER 07Z. TIMING OF THE
DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR DECK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUD DECK AFTER 07Z. TIMING OF THE
DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR DECK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...24/220 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING
AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT STILL WITH A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING. GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS (ALTHOUGH LOCAL GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL). FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 241020
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
255 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP MOIST LAYER AROUND LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES COULD
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...THEN DRY WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA HAS FILLED IN AND MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO MAINTAIN
AN ALREADY MOIST LAYER AROUND 5000 FT DEEP OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS AND COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE WILL BE A FEW FLAT CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LA/VTU
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME REVERSE CLEARING ALONG THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS...FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES
TODAY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING N OF POINT
CONCEPTION AS NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. AT THIS
TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR TO STAY OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN
FURTHER BY SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED VALID FROM
9 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 9 PM SAT EVENING. EXPECTING SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST TO LOWER VISIBILITY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. SO DRIVERS ON HIGHWAYS 14 AND 138 NEED TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST...SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE.  THE
LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE AFFECTED AS WELL WITH GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

GOING BACK TO SATURDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH INLAND CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DIGGING TROUGH.
850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS S OF
POINT CONCEPTION DUE TO THE NW DIRECTION. HOWEVER THE WINDS BECOME
MORE CYCLONIC NEAR SOUTHERN LA COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS FROM LONG BEACH UP TO THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NRN SLOPES OF THE VENTURA AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
DUE TO THE MOIST FLOW BANKING UP AGAINST THE NRN SLOPES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE AS THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPS A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY SUNDAY...THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS REBOUND DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE STATE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL WARM 6 TO 10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. BEACHES WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
OVER CALIFORNIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CALIFORNIA AND
WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO SOAR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MAINLY FOR
LA/VTU COUNTIES...BUT THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE SOME WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 80S AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS THE USUAL
WIND PRONE LOCATIONS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO
BE JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BE A
BIT WEAKER ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO
THE EAST AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL HELP TEMPS LOWER A BIT AND BRING BACK THE ONSHORE FLOW WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AROUND LA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE WED. THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND MORE WIDESPREAD COASTAL NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0510Z...

AT 045Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE A BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY TAF SITES. WILL ANTICIPATE A MVFR DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE MVFR DISSIPATE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
BLOWING DUST AND SAND AT BOTH KWJF AND KPMD.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUD DECK AFTER 07Z. TIMING OF THE
DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR DECK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUD DECK AFTER 07Z. TIMING OF THE
DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR DECK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...24/220 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING
AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT STILL WITH A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING. GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS (ALTHOUGH LOCAL GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL). FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 240956
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
255 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP MOIST LAYER AROUND LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES COULD
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...THEN DRY WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA HAS FILLED IN AND MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO MAINTAIN
AN ALREADY MOIST LAYER AROUND 5000 FT DEEP OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS AND COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE WILL BE A FEW FLAT CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LA/VTU
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME REVERSE CLEARING ALONG THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS...FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES
TODAY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING N OF POINT
CONCEPTION AS NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. AT THIS
TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR TO STAY OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN
FURTHER BY SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED VALID FROM
9 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 9 PM SAT EVENING. EXPECTING SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST TO LOWER VISIBILITY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. SO DRIVERS ON HIGHWAYS 14 AND 138 NEED TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST...SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE.  THE
LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE AFFECTED AS WELL WITH GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

GOING BACK TO SATURDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH INLAND CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DIGGING TROUGH.
850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS S OF
POINT CONCEPTION DUE TO THE NW DIRECTION. HOWEVER THE WINDS BECOME
MORE CYCLONIC NEAR SOUTHERN LA COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS FROM LONG BEACH UP TO THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NRN SLOPES OF THE VENTURA AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
DUE TO THE MOIST FLOW BANKING UP AGAINST THE NRN SLOPES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE AS THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPS A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY SUNDAY...THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS REBOUND DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE STATE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL WARM 6 TO 10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. BEACHES WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
OVER CALIFORNIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CALIFORNIA AND
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SOAR BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MAINLY FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES...BUT THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL SEE SOME WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WELL.  BY
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS LOWER A BIT
AND BRING BACK THE ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AROUND LA COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS. FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE WED. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER
TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND MORE WIDESPREAD COASTAL
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0510Z...

AT 045Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE A BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY TAF SITES. WILL ANTICIPATE A MVFR DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE MVFR DISSIPATE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
BLOWING DUST AND SAND AT BOTH KWJF AND KPMD.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUD DECK AFTER 07Z. TIMING OF THE
DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR DECK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUD DECK AFTER 07Z. TIMING OF THE
DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR DECK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...24/220 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING
AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT STILL WITH A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING. GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS (ALTHOUGH LOCAL GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL). FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 240956
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
255 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP MOIST LAYER AROUND LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES COULD
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...THEN DRY WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA HAS FILLED IN AND MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO MAINTAIN
AN ALREADY MOIST LAYER AROUND 5000 FT DEEP OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS AND COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE WILL BE A FEW FLAT CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LA/VTU
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME REVERSE CLEARING ALONG THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS...FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES
TODAY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING N OF POINT
CONCEPTION AS NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. AT THIS
TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR TO STAY OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN
FURTHER BY SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED VALID FROM
9 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 9 PM SAT EVENING. EXPECTING SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST TO LOWER VISIBILITY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. SO DRIVERS ON HIGHWAYS 14 AND 138 NEED TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST...SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE.  THE
LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE AFFECTED AS WELL WITH GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

GOING BACK TO SATURDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH INLAND CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DIGGING TROUGH.
850 MB WINDS (~5000 FT) WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS S OF
POINT CONCEPTION DUE TO THE NW DIRECTION. HOWEVER THE WINDS BECOME
MORE CYCLONIC NEAR SOUTHERN LA COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS FROM LONG BEACH UP TO THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NRN SLOPES OF THE VENTURA AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
DUE TO THE MOIST FLOW BANKING UP AGAINST THE NRN SLOPES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE AS THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPS A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY SUNDAY...THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS REBOUND DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE STATE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL WARM 6 TO 10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. BEACHES WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
OVER CALIFORNIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CALIFORNIA AND
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SOAR BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MAINLY FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES...BUT THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL SEE SOME WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WELL.  BY
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS LOWER A BIT
AND BRING BACK THE ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AROUND LA COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS. FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE WED. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER
TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND MORE WIDESPREAD COASTAL
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0510Z...

AT 045Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE A BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY TAF SITES. WILL ANTICIPATE A MVFR DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE MVFR DISSIPATE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
BLOWING DUST AND SAND AT BOTH KWJF AND KPMD.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUD DECK AFTER 07Z. TIMING OF THE
DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR DECK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUD DECK AFTER 07Z. TIMING OF THE
DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR DECK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...24/220 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING
AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT STILL WITH A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING. GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS (ALTHOUGH LOCAL GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL). FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 240512 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1010 PM PDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO
SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES...THEN DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...PRETTY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR THE MTNS AND DESERTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST. THERE WAS A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST ANTELOPE VLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING. A RAIN GAUGE IN THIS
AREA RECORDED 1.31 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR...AND 0.67 INCH IN A
HALF HOUR. WE RECEIVED VIDEO OF RUNNING WATER SEVERAL INCHES DEEP
OVER A ROAD EAST OF LAKE LOS ANGELES ON EL MIRAGE ROAD AS A RESULT
OF RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN.

A FEW SHOWERS LINGERED OVER WESTERN VTU COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING
BUT DISSIPATED PRETTY QUICKLY BY MID EVENING. EXTENSIVE STRATOCU
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT...GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME GUSTY W TO SW WINDS
PERSISTED THIS EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VLY AND INTERIOR SLO
COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS AFFECTED THE WEATHER OVER SWRN CA FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS WAS OVER EXTREME SERN CA THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE QUICKLY E OVERNIGHT AND FRI. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
MOVE INTO NRN CA FRI NIGHT THEN SLIDE QUICKLY THRU E AND SERN CA ON
SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST SAT NIGHT AND
SUN...WITH A BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES ON FRI...
OTHERWISE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH COOL TEMPS AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU FRI NIGHT. GUSTY W WINDS
POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS WILL AFFECT THE ANTELOPE VLY FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA ON SAT ALONG WITH A
FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT WILL BE
OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES. EVEN STRONGER W WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ANTELOPE VLY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. COASTAL
AND SOME VLY AREAS SHOULD ALSO HAVE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS SAT
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THANKS TO STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS...
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE. STRONG AND GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE MTNS SAT EVENING AND LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT...
WITH WIND ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED...IF NOT HIGH WIND WATCHES IN
SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY
SUN WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES MOVING IN THRU THE DAY ON SUN.

TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
ON FRI AND SAT...THEN WARM TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS ON SUN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE WEEKEND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY AND WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE
WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY...IT WILL
BE BREEZY IN THE FAVORED SPOTS. MEANWHILE...582DM (AT 500MB) RIDGE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES...AND BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF
WARMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COOLING IS POSSIBLE
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0510Z...

AT 0450Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE A BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY TAF SITES. WILL ANTICIPATE A MVFR DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE MVFR DISSIPATE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
BLOWING DUST AND SAND AT BOTH KWJF AND KPMD.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUD DECK AFTER 07Z. TIMING OF THE
DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR DECK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUD DECK AFTER 07Z. TIMING OF THE
DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR DECK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...23/800 PM...
A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL 10-60 NM
AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. UNTIL THAT TIME...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND OVER
THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST...AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE GALES ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SCA WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS NEARSHORE AS THIS OCCURS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/KITTELL
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 240512 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1010 PM PDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO
SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES...THEN DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...PRETTY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR THE MTNS AND DESERTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST. THERE WAS A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST ANTELOPE VLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING. A RAIN GAUGE IN THIS
AREA RECORDED 1.31 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR...AND 0.67 INCH IN A
HALF HOUR. WE RECEIVED VIDEO OF RUNNING WATER SEVERAL INCHES DEEP
OVER A ROAD EAST OF LAKE LOS ANGELES ON EL MIRAGE ROAD AS A RESULT
OF RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN.

A FEW SHOWERS LINGERED OVER WESTERN VTU COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING
BUT DISSIPATED PRETTY QUICKLY BY MID EVENING. EXTENSIVE STRATOCU
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT...GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME GUSTY W TO SW WINDS
PERSISTED THIS EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VLY AND INTERIOR SLO
COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS AFFECTED THE WEATHER OVER SWRN CA FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS WAS OVER EXTREME SERN CA THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE QUICKLY E OVERNIGHT AND FRI. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
MOVE INTO NRN CA FRI NIGHT THEN SLIDE QUICKLY THRU E AND SERN CA ON
SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST SAT NIGHT AND
SUN...WITH A BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES ON FRI...
OTHERWISE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH COOL TEMPS AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU FRI NIGHT. GUSTY W WINDS
POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS WILL AFFECT THE ANTELOPE VLY FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA ON SAT ALONG WITH A
FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT WILL BE
OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES. EVEN STRONGER W WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ANTELOPE VLY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. COASTAL
AND SOME VLY AREAS SHOULD ALSO HAVE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS SAT
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THANKS TO STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS...
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE. STRONG AND GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE MTNS SAT EVENING AND LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT...
WITH WIND ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED...IF NOT HIGH WIND WATCHES IN
SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY
SUN WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES MOVING IN THRU THE DAY ON SUN.

TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
ON FRI AND SAT...THEN WARM TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS ON SUN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE WEEKEND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY AND WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE
WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY...IT WILL
BE BREEZY IN THE FAVORED SPOTS. MEANWHILE...582DM (AT 500MB) RIDGE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES...AND BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF
WARMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COOLING IS POSSIBLE
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0510Z...

AT 0450Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE A BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY TAF SITES. WILL ANTICIPATE A MVFR DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE MVFR DISSIPATE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
BLOWING DUST AND SAND AT BOTH KWJF AND KPMD.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUD DECK AFTER 07Z. TIMING OF THE
DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR DECK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUD DECK AFTER 07Z. TIMING OF THE
DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR DECK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...23/800 PM...
A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL 10-60 NM
AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. UNTIL THAT TIME...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND OVER
THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST...AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE GALES ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SCA WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS NEARSHORE AS THIS OCCURS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/KITTELL
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 240512 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1010 PM PDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO
SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES...THEN DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...PRETTY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR THE MTNS AND DESERTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST. THERE WAS A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST ANTELOPE VLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING. A RAIN GAUGE IN THIS
AREA RECORDED 1.31 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR...AND 0.67 INCH IN A
HALF HOUR. WE RECEIVED VIDEO OF RUNNING WATER SEVERAL INCHES DEEP
OVER A ROAD EAST OF LAKE LOS ANGELES ON EL MIRAGE ROAD AS A RESULT
OF RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN.

A FEW SHOWERS LINGERED OVER WESTERN VTU COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING
BUT DISSIPATED PRETTY QUICKLY BY MID EVENING. EXTENSIVE STRATOCU
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT...GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME GUSTY W TO SW WINDS
PERSISTED THIS EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VLY AND INTERIOR SLO
COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS AFFECTED THE WEATHER OVER SWRN CA FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS WAS OVER EXTREME SERN CA THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE QUICKLY E OVERNIGHT AND FRI. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
MOVE INTO NRN CA FRI NIGHT THEN SLIDE QUICKLY THRU E AND SERN CA ON
SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST SAT NIGHT AND
SUN...WITH A BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES ON FRI...
OTHERWISE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH COOL TEMPS AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU FRI NIGHT. GUSTY W WINDS
POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS WILL AFFECT THE ANTELOPE VLY FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA ON SAT ALONG WITH A
FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT WILL BE
OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES. EVEN STRONGER W WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ANTELOPE VLY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. COASTAL
AND SOME VLY AREAS SHOULD ALSO HAVE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS SAT
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THANKS TO STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS...
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE. STRONG AND GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE MTNS SAT EVENING AND LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT...
WITH WIND ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED...IF NOT HIGH WIND WATCHES IN
SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY
SUN WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES MOVING IN THRU THE DAY ON SUN.

TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
ON FRI AND SAT...THEN WARM TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS ON SUN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE WEEKEND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY AND WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE
WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY...IT WILL
BE BREEZY IN THE FAVORED SPOTS. MEANWHILE...582DM (AT 500MB) RIDGE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES...AND BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF
WARMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COOLING IS POSSIBLE
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0510Z...

AT 0450Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE A BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY TAF SITES. WILL ANTICIPATE A MVFR DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE MVFR DISSIPATE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
BLOWING DUST AND SAND AT BOTH KWJF AND KPMD.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUD DECK AFTER 07Z. TIMING OF THE
DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR DECK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUD DECK AFTER 07Z. TIMING OF THE
DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR DECK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...23/800 PM...
A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL 10-60 NM
AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. UNTIL THAT TIME...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND OVER
THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST...AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE GALES ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SCA WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS NEARSHORE AS THIS OCCURS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/KITTELL
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 240400
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 PM PDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO
SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES...THEN DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...PRETTY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR THE MTNS AND DESERTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST. THERE WAS A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST ANTELOPE VLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING. A RAIN GAUGE IN THIS
AREA RECORDED 1.31 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR...AND 0.67 INCH IN A
HALF HOUR. WE RECEIVED VIDEO OF RUNNING WATER SEVERAL INCHES DEEP
OVER A ROAD EAST OF LAKE LOS ANGELES ON EL MIRAGE ROAD AS A RESULT
OF RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN.

A FEW SHOWERS LINGERED OVER WESTERN VTU COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING
BUT DISSIPATED PRETTY QUICKLY BY MID EVENING. EXTENSIVE STRATOCU
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT...GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME GUSTY W TO SW WINDS
PERSISTED THIS EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VLY AND INTERIOR SLO
COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS AFFECTED THE WEATHER OVER SWRN CA FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS WAS OVER EXTREME SERN CA THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE QUICKLY E OVERNIGHT AND FRI. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
MOVE INTO NRN CA FRI NIGHT THEN SLIDE QUICKLY THRU E AND SERN CA ON
SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST SAT NIGHT AND
SUN...WITH A BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES ON FRI...
OTHERWISE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH COOL TEMPS AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU FRI NIGHT. GUSTY W WINDS
POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS WILL AFFECT THE ANTELOPE VLY FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA ON SAT ALONG WITH A
FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT WILL BE
OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES. EVEN STRONGER W WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ANTELOPE VLY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. COASTAL
AND SOME VLY AREAS SHOULD ALSO HAVE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS SAT
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THANKS TO STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS...
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE. STRONG AND GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE MTNS SAT EVENING AND LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT...
WITH WIND ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED...IF NOT HIGH WIND WATCHES IN
SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY
SUN WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES MOVING IN THRU THE DAY ON SUN.

TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
ON FRI AND SAT...THEN WARM TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS ON SUN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE WEEKEND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY AND WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE
WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY...IT WILL
BE BREEZY IN THE FAVORED SPOTS. MEANWHILE...582DM (AT 500MB) RIDGE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES...AND BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF
WARMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COOLING IS POSSIBLE
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0020Z.

AT 0000Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT AT KLAX.

MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. THE COASTAL AND VLY
AIRFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS AT TIMES
TONIGHT AND FRI...ALTHO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS...
WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
AFFECT KSMX AND KSBP FRI AFTERNOON. FOR KWJF AND KPMD...GENERALLY HI
CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF ALTHO THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY
SW WINDS FRI AFTERNOON WILL BRING A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
IN BLOWING DUST...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN
BLOWING DUST.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES TONIGHT THRU EARLY FRI EVENING...
ALTHO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
THESE CONDITIONS AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS...WITH THE TIMING
OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...ALTHO
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THESE
CONDITIONS AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS...WITH THE TIMING OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...23/800 PM...
A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL 10-60 NM
AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. UNTIL THAT TIME...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND OVER
THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST...AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE GALES ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SCA WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS NEARSHORE AS THIS OCCURS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/KITTELL
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 240400
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 PM PDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO
SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES...THEN DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...PRETTY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR THE MTNS AND DESERTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST. THERE WAS A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST ANTELOPE VLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING. A RAIN GAUGE IN THIS
AREA RECORDED 1.31 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR...AND 0.67 INCH IN A
HALF HOUR. WE RECEIVED VIDEO OF RUNNING WATER SEVERAL INCHES DEEP
OVER A ROAD EAST OF LAKE LOS ANGELES ON EL MIRAGE ROAD AS A RESULT
OF RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN.

A FEW SHOWERS LINGERED OVER WESTERN VTU COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING
BUT DISSIPATED PRETTY QUICKLY BY MID EVENING. EXTENSIVE STRATOCU
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT...GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME GUSTY W TO SW WINDS
PERSISTED THIS EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VLY AND INTERIOR SLO
COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS AFFECTED THE WEATHER OVER SWRN CA FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS WAS OVER EXTREME SERN CA THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE QUICKLY E OVERNIGHT AND FRI. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
MOVE INTO NRN CA FRI NIGHT THEN SLIDE QUICKLY THRU E AND SERN CA ON
SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST SAT NIGHT AND
SUN...WITH A BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES ON FRI...
OTHERWISE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH COOL TEMPS AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU FRI NIGHT. GUSTY W WINDS
POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS WILL AFFECT THE ANTELOPE VLY FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA ON SAT ALONG WITH A
FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT WILL BE
OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES. EVEN STRONGER W WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ANTELOPE VLY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. COASTAL
AND SOME VLY AREAS SHOULD ALSO HAVE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS SAT
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THANKS TO STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS...
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE. STRONG AND GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE MTNS SAT EVENING AND LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT...
WITH WIND ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED...IF NOT HIGH WIND WATCHES IN
SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY
SUN WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES MOVING IN THRU THE DAY ON SUN.

TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
ON FRI AND SAT...THEN WARM TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS ON SUN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE WEEKEND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY AND WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE
WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY...IT WILL
BE BREEZY IN THE FAVORED SPOTS. MEANWHILE...582DM (AT 500MB) RIDGE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES...AND BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF
WARMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COOLING IS POSSIBLE
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0020Z.

AT 0000Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT AT KLAX.

MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. THE COASTAL AND VLY
AIRFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS AT TIMES
TONIGHT AND FRI...ALTHO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS...
WITH THE TIMING OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
AFFECT KSMX AND KSBP FRI AFTERNOON. FOR KWJF AND KPMD...GENERALLY HI
CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF ALTHO THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY
SW WINDS FRI AFTERNOON WILL BRING A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
IN BLOWING DUST...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN
BLOWING DUST.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES TONIGHT THRU EARLY FRI EVENING...
ALTHO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
THESE CONDITIONS AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS...WITH THE TIMING
OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...ALTHO
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THESE
CONDITIONS AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS...WITH THE TIMING OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...23/800 PM...
A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL 10-60 NM
AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. UNTIL THAT TIME...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND OVER
THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST...AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE GALES ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SCA WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS NEARSHORE AS THIS OCCURS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/KITTELL
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities