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000
FXUS66 KLOX 292106
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY AFTERNOON THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MOISTURE FROM HERNAN WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
BUT HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT SO FAR. MOST MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE
INCREASING TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA,
BUT GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 600 MB. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS ALSO
INDICATE AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA, THOUGH NOT
SEEING ANY REFLECTION OF THIS SHORT WAVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THE LOCATION OF THE SHORT WAVE BY WED
MORNING, SOME HAVE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SLO COUNTY AND OTHERS OVER
VENTURA COUNTY. HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FIND ANY EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, ELEVATED OR OTHERWISE, THOUGH MODELS
HISTORICALLY HAVE NOT HANDLED NORTHWARD PROPOGATING WAVES WELL,
PARTICULARLY THEIR MOISTURE AND STABILITY PARAMETERS. FOR NOW, GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EXISTENCE OF A SHORT WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE ALOFT HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAX-SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND. IF IT STARTS TO LOOK MORE CONVECTIVE DURING THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ADDED.

SHOWER/CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A MORE TRADITIONAL MTN/DESERT THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE THICK MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE, THOUGH
MODELS ARE INDICATING THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD PERMIT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE CONVECTION.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER BUT COMPENSATED AT LEAST IN PART BY THE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY, MAKING IT FEEL AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY.

A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY THU/FRI AND NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BUT
WITH WARMER TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

INCREASED NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY THU EVENING,
POSSIBLY LOW END ADVISORY. ALSO QUITE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE HIGH
80S OR LOW 90S NEAR THE BEACHES IN SRN SBA COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THU.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...LA COUNTY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF A PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. GFS KEEPS THIS PLUME EAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT ALONG
THE LA COUNTY BORDER. FOR NOW AM LEAVING THE FORECAST DRY BUT HAVE
ADDED SOME CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA AND SILENT POPS
(<15). A TROF MOVING INTO NRN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN
A COOLING/DRYING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR HIGHS DROP BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY, IF NOT SOONER,
ESPECIALLY FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MARINE LAYER LOCATION... DURATION... AND
INTENSITY.

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY MORNING WITH A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY 12Z-16Z.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...29/230 PM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 292106
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY AFTERNOON THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MOISTURE FROM HERNAN WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
BUT HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT SO FAR. MOST MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE
INCREASING TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA,
BUT GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 600 MB. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS ALSO
INDICATE AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA, THOUGH NOT
SEEING ANY REFLECTION OF THIS SHORT WAVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THE LOCATION OF THE SHORT WAVE BY WED
MORNING, SOME HAVE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SLO COUNTY AND OTHERS OVER
VENTURA COUNTY. HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FIND ANY EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, ELEVATED OR OTHERWISE, THOUGH MODELS
HISTORICALLY HAVE NOT HANDLED NORTHWARD PROPOGATING WAVES WELL,
PARTICULARLY THEIR MOISTURE AND STABILITY PARAMETERS. FOR NOW, GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EXISTENCE OF A SHORT WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE ALOFT HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAX-SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND. IF IT STARTS TO LOOK MORE CONVECTIVE DURING THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ADDED.

SHOWER/CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A MORE TRADITIONAL MTN/DESERT THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE THICK MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE, THOUGH
MODELS ARE INDICATING THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD PERMIT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE CONVECTION.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER BUT COMPENSATED AT LEAST IN PART BY THE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY, MAKING IT FEEL AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY.

A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY THU/FRI AND NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BUT
WITH WARMER TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

INCREASED NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY THU EVENING,
POSSIBLY LOW END ADVISORY. ALSO QUITE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE HIGH
80S OR LOW 90S NEAR THE BEACHES IN SRN SBA COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THU.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...LA COUNTY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF A PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. GFS KEEPS THIS PLUME EAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT ALONG
THE LA COUNTY BORDER. FOR NOW AM LEAVING THE FORECAST DRY BUT HAVE
ADDED SOME CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA AND SILENT POPS
(<15). A TROF MOVING INTO NRN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN
A COOLING/DRYING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR HIGHS DROP BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY, IF NOT SOONER,
ESPECIALLY FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MARINE LAYER LOCATION... DURATION... AND
INTENSITY.

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY MORNING WITH A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY 12Z-16Z.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...29/230 PM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 292021
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY AFTERNOON THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MOISTURE FROM HERNAN WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
BUT HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT SO FAR. MOST MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE
INCREASING TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA,
BUT GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 600 MB. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS ALSO
INDICATE AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA, THOUGH NOT
SEEING ANY REFLECTION OF THIS SHORT WAVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THE LOCATION OF THE SHORT WAVE BY WED
MORNING, SOME HAVE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SLO COUNTY AND OTHERS OVER
VENTURA COUNTY. HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FIND ANY EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, ELEVATED OR OTHERWISE, THOUGH MODELS
HISTORICALLY HAVE NOT HANDLED NORTHWARD PROPOGATING WAVES WELL,
PARTICULARLY THEIR MOISTURE AND STABILITY PARAMETERS. FOR NOW, GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EXISTENCE OF A SHORT WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE ALOFT HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAX-SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND. IF IT STARTS TO LOOK MORE CONVECTIVE DURING THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ADDED.

SHOWER/CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A MORE TRADITIONAL MTN/DESERT THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE THICK MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE, THOUGH
MODELS ARE INDICATING THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD PERMIT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE CONVECTION.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER BUT COMPENSATED AT LEAST IN PART BY THE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY, MAKING IT FEEL AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY.

A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY THU/FRI AND NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BUT
WITH WARMER TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

INCREASED NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY THU EVENING,
POSSIBLY LOW END ADVISORY. ALSO QUITE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE HIGH
80S OR LOW 90S NEAR THE BEACHES IN SRN SBA COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THU.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...LA COUNTY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF A PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. GFS KEEPS THIS PLUME EAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT ALONG
THE LA COUNTY BORDER. FOR NOW AM LEAVING THE FORECAST DRY BUT HAVE
ADDED SOME CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA AND SILENT POPS
(<15). A TROF MOVING INTO NRN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN
A COOLING/DRYING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR HIGHS DROP BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY, IF NOT SOONER,
ESPECIALLY FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 292021
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY AFTERNOON THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MOISTURE FROM HERNAN WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
BUT HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT SO FAR. MOST MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE
INCREASING TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA,
BUT GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 600 MB. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS ALSO
INDICATE AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA, THOUGH NOT
SEEING ANY REFLECTION OF THIS SHORT WAVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THE LOCATION OF THE SHORT WAVE BY WED
MORNING, SOME HAVE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SLO COUNTY AND OTHERS OVER
VENTURA COUNTY. HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FIND ANY EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, ELEVATED OR OTHERWISE, THOUGH MODELS
HISTORICALLY HAVE NOT HANDLED NORTHWARD PROPOGATING WAVES WELL,
PARTICULARLY THEIR MOISTURE AND STABILITY PARAMETERS. FOR NOW, GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EXISTENCE OF A SHORT WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE ALOFT HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAX-SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND. IF IT STARTS TO LOOK MORE CONVECTIVE DURING THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ADDED.

SHOWER/CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A MORE TRADITIONAL MTN/DESERT THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE THICK MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE, THOUGH
MODELS ARE INDICATING THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD PERMIT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE CONVECTION.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER BUT COMPENSATED AT LEAST IN PART BY THE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY, MAKING IT FEEL AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY.

A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY THU/FRI AND NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BUT
WITH WARMER TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

INCREASED NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY THU EVENING,
POSSIBLY LOW END ADVISORY. ALSO QUITE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE HIGH
80S OR LOW 90S NEAR THE BEACHES IN SRN SBA COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THU.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...LA COUNTY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF A PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. GFS KEEPS THIS PLUME EAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT ALONG
THE LA COUNTY BORDER. FOR NOW AM LEAVING THE FORECAST DRY BUT HAVE
ADDED SOME CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA AND SILENT POPS
(<15). A TROF MOVING INTO NRN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN
A COOLING/DRYING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR HIGHS DROP BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY, IF NOT SOONER,
ESPECIALLY FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 291802
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE WAY OF HUMIDITY. THIS EVENING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE NEAR SBA
AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS THERE. 12Z NAM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE FLOW THAN EARLIER RUNS AND WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME BRIEF GUSTS
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE GAVIOTA AND SAN MARCOS PASS
AREAS THIS EVENING. WILL SEE HOW THINGS ARE GOING THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECIDING ON HOW TO LEAN WITH THIS ONE.

HERNAN MOISTURE TO THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT AS A LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKED AT BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST COULD NOT FIND
ANYTHING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION, EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE
RATES WERE JUST NOT SUFFICIENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LAYERS WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS. STILL, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE VORT MAX AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE I`M
LEANING TOWARDS ADDING SOME SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND EARLY WED, AND
THEN LEAVING THE TSTORM CHANCES AS IS FOR THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE CLOUD COVER, BUT
MODELS DO SHOW SOME THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA COUNTY SO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THERE.

THICKER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CUT INTO THE HIGHS A BIT WEDNESDAY BUT
THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY CALL. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
OFFSET THE COOLING MAKING IT FEEL SIMILAR OR EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1130Z

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MARINE LAYER LOCATION... DURATION... AND
INTENSITY.

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY MORNING WITH A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY 12Z-16Z.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 291802
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE WAY OF HUMIDITY. THIS EVENING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE NEAR SBA
AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS THERE. 12Z NAM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE FLOW THAN EARLIER RUNS AND WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME BRIEF GUSTS
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE GAVIOTA AND SAN MARCOS PASS
AREAS THIS EVENING. WILL SEE HOW THINGS ARE GOING THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECIDING ON HOW TO LEAN WITH THIS ONE.

HERNAN MOISTURE TO THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT AS A LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKED AT BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST COULD NOT FIND
ANYTHING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION, EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE
RATES WERE JUST NOT SUFFICIENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LAYERS WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS. STILL, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE VORT MAX AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE I`M
LEANING TOWARDS ADDING SOME SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND EARLY WED, AND
THEN LEAVING THE TSTORM CHANCES AS IS FOR THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE CLOUD COVER, BUT
MODELS DO SHOW SOME THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA COUNTY SO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THERE.

THICKER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CUT INTO THE HIGHS A BIT WEDNESDAY BUT
THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY CALL. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
OFFSET THE COOLING MAKING IT FEEL SIMILAR OR EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1130Z

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MARINE LAYER LOCATION... DURATION... AND
INTENSITY.

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY MORNING WITH A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY 12Z-16Z.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 291608
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE WAY OF HUMIDITY. THIS EVENING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE NEAR SBA
AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS THERE. 12Z NAM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE FLOW THAN EARLIER RUNS AND WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME BRIEF GUSTS
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE GAVIOTA AND SAN MARCOS PASS
AREAS THIS EVENING. WILL SEE HOW THINGS ARE GOING THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECIDING ON HOW TO LEAN WITH THIS ONE.

HERNAN MOISTURE TO THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT AS A LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKED AT BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST COULD NOT FIND
ANYTHING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION, EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE
RATES WERE JUST NOT SUFFICIENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LAYERS WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS. STILL, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE VORT MAX AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE I`M
LEANING TOWARDS ADDING SOME SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND EARLY WED, AND
THEN LEAVING THE TSTORM CHANCES AS IS FOR THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE CLOUD COVER, BUT
MODELS DO SHOW SOME THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA COUNTY SO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THERE.

THICKER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CUT INTO THE HIGHS A BIT WEDNESDAY BUT
THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY CALL. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
OFFSET THE COOLING MAKING IT FEEL SIMILAR OR EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



















000
FXUS66 KLOX 291608
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE WAY OF HUMIDITY. THIS EVENING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE NEAR SBA
AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS THERE. 12Z NAM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE FLOW THAN EARLIER RUNS AND WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME BRIEF GUSTS
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE GAVIOTA AND SAN MARCOS PASS
AREAS THIS EVENING. WILL SEE HOW THINGS ARE GOING THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECIDING ON HOW TO LEAN WITH THIS ONE.

HERNAN MOISTURE TO THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT AS A LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKED AT BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST COULD NOT FIND
ANYTHING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION, EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE
RATES WERE JUST NOT SUFFICIENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LAYERS WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS. STILL, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE VORT MAX AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE I`M
LEANING TOWARDS ADDING SOME SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND EARLY WED, AND
THEN LEAVING THE TSTORM CHANCES AS IS FOR THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE CLOUD COVER, BUT
MODELS DO SHOW SOME THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA COUNTY SO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THERE.

THICKER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CUT INTO THE HIGHS A BIT WEDNESDAY BUT
THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY CALL. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
OFFSET THE COOLING MAKING IT FEEL SIMILAR OR EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




















000
FXUS66 KLOX 291602
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE WAY OF HUMIDITY. THIS EVENING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE NEAR SBA
AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS THERE. 12Z NAM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE FLOW THAN EARLIER RUNS AND WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME BRIEF GUSTS
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE GAVIOTA AND SAN MARCOS PASS
AREAS THIS EVENING. WILL SEE HOW THINGS ARE GOING THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECIDING ON HOW TO LEAN WITH THIS ONE.

HERNAN MOISTURE TO THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT AS A LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKED AT BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST COULD NOT FIND
ANYTHING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION, EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE
RATES WERE JUST NOT SUFFICIENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LAYERS WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS. STILL, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE VORT MAX AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE I`M
LEANING TOWARDS ADDING SOME SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND EARLY WED, AND
THEN LEAVING THE TSTORM CHANCES AS IS FOR THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE CLOUD COVER, BUT
MODELS DO SHOW SOME THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA COUNTY SO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THERE.

THICKER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CUT INTO THE HIGHS A BIT WEDNESDAY BUT
THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY CALL. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
OFFSET THE COOLING MAKING IT FEEL SIMILAR OR EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

















000
FXUS66 KLOX 291602
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE WAY OF HUMIDITY. THIS EVENING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE NEAR SBA
AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS THERE. 12Z NAM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE FLOW THAN EARLIER RUNS AND WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME BRIEF GUSTS
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE GAVIOTA AND SAN MARCOS PASS
AREAS THIS EVENING. WILL SEE HOW THINGS ARE GOING THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECIDING ON HOW TO LEAN WITH THIS ONE.

HERNAN MOISTURE TO THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT AS A LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKED AT BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST COULD NOT FIND
ANYTHING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION, EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE
RATES WERE JUST NOT SUFFICIENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LAYERS WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS. STILL, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE VORT MAX AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE I`M
LEANING TOWARDS ADDING SOME SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND EARLY WED, AND
THEN LEAVING THE TSTORM CHANCES AS IS FOR THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE CLOUD COVER, BUT
MODELS DO SHOW SOME THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA COUNTY SO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THERE.

THICKER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CUT INTO THE HIGHS A BIT WEDNESDAY BUT
THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY CALL. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
OFFSET THE COOLING MAKING IT FEEL SIMILAR OR EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 291433 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
730 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS IN A MOIST MONSOON FLOW. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABSENT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND HAS ONLY
MADE LIMITED INROADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE
TO THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE MAIN CLOUD
EQUATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING UP FROM
THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. BUT THIS WILL JUST MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT ENOUGH CLOUDS OR MARINE LAYER HOWEVER TO
REALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER 90S IN THE VLYS AND TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERTS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

A LITTLE EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO THE LA COUNTY COAST AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT THE STRATUS
FORMATION BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DO THIS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE OF HERNAN WAFTS
NORTHWARD. OPTIMISTS WILL CALL THE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND
PESSIMISTS WILL SEE IT AS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF DESERT OR MTN TSTMS...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW FOR INITIATION SO FOR NOW WILL
ONLY GO FOR A SLIGHT CHC. THE CLOUDS WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO/KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 291433 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
730 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS IN A MOIST MONSOON FLOW. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABSENT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND HAS ONLY
MADE LIMITED INROADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE
TO THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE MAIN CLOUD
EQUATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING UP FROM
THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. BUT THIS WILL JUST MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT ENOUGH CLOUDS OR MARINE LAYER HOWEVER TO
REALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER 90S IN THE VLYS AND TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERTS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

A LITTLE EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO THE LA COUNTY COAST AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT THE STRATUS
FORMATION BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DO THIS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE OF HERNAN WAFTS
NORTHWARD. OPTIMISTS WILL CALL THE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND
PESSIMISTS WILL SEE IT AS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF DESERT OR MTN TSTMS...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW FOR INITIATION SO FOR NOW WILL
ONLY GO FOR A SLIGHT CHC. THE CLOUDS WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO/KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 291132 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN A MOIST MONSOON FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST
DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABSENT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND HAS ONLY
MADE LIMITED INROADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE
TO THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE MAIN CLOUD
EQUATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING UP FROM
THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. BUT THIS WILL JUST MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT ENOUGH CLOUDS OR MARINE LAYER HOWEVER TO
REALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER 90S IN THE VLYS AND TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERTS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

A LITTLE EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO THE LA COUNTY COAST AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT THE STRATUS
FORMATION BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DO THIS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE OF HERNAN WAFTS
NORTHWARD. OPTIMISTS WILL CALL THE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND
PESSIMISTS WILL SEE IT AS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF DESERT OR MTN TSTMS...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW FOR INITIATION SO FOR NOW WILL
ONLY GO FOR A SLIGHT CHC. THE CLOUDS WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 291132 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN A MOIST MONSOON FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST
DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABSENT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND HAS ONLY
MADE LIMITED INROADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE
TO THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE MAIN CLOUD
EQUATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING UP FROM
THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. BUT THIS WILL JUST MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT ENOUGH CLOUDS OR MARINE LAYER HOWEVER TO
REALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER 90S IN THE VLYS AND TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERTS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

A LITTLE EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO THE LA COUNTY COAST AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT THE STRATUS
FORMATION BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DO THIS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE OF HERNAN WAFTS
NORTHWARD. OPTIMISTS WILL CALL THE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND
PESSIMISTS WILL SEE IT AS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF DESERT OR MTN TSTMS...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW FOR INITIATION SO FOR NOW WILL
ONLY GO FOR A SLIGHT CHC. THE CLOUDS WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 291048
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN A MOIST MONSOON FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST
DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABSENT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND HAS ONLY
MADE LIMITED INROADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE
TO THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE MAIN CLOUD
EQUATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING UP FROM
THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. BUT THIS WILL JUST MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT ENOUGH CLOUDS OR MARINE LAYER HOWEVER TO
REALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER 90S IN THE VLYS AND TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERTS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

A LITTLE EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO THE LA COUNTY COAST AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT THE STRATUS
FORMATION BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DO THIS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE OF HERNON WAFTS
NORTHWARD. OPTIMISTS WILL CALL THE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND
PESSIMISTS WILL SEE IT AS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF DESERT OR MTN TSTMS...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW FOR INITIATION SO FOR NOW WILL
ONLY GO FOR A SLIGHT CHC. THE CLOUDS WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/0530Z

EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. S OF PT
CONCEPTION...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMDT COAST AT
AIRPORTS LIKE KLAX AND KLGB. FAST CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS BY MID
MORNING ON TUE.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT OF IFR
TO LIFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 291048
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN A MOIST MONSOON FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST
DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABSENT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND HAS ONLY
MADE LIMITED INROADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE
TO THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE MAIN CLOUD
EQUATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING UP FROM
THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. BUT THIS WILL JUST MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT ENOUGH CLOUDS OR MARINE LAYER HOWEVER TO
REALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER 90S IN THE VLYS AND TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERTS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

A LITTLE EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO THE LA COUNTY COAST AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT THE STRATUS
FORMATION BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DO THIS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE OF HERNON WAFTS
NORTHWARD. OPTIMISTS WILL CALL THE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND
PESSIMISTS WILL SEE IT AS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF DESERT OR MTN TSTMS...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW FOR INITIATION SO FOR NOW WILL
ONLY GO FOR A SLIGHT CHC. THE CLOUDS WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/0530Z

EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. S OF PT
CONCEPTION...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMDT COAST AT
AIRPORTS LIKE KLAX AND KLGB. FAST CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS BY MID
MORNING ON TUE.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT OF IFR
TO LIFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 290534 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...UPDATE
LOOKS LIKE STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT MORE STABLE OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECASTER AREA...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT
INCLUDING THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS DECENT
INSTABILITY POTENTIAL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY EARLIER
TODAY...TOO MUCH OF A CLOUD SHIELD PREVENTED CONVECTION TO
INITIATE...AND BEST STORM CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
CONTINUED TO BE EAST OF LA COUNTY INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON.

LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX INDICATED A RELATIVELY STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 700 FT DEEP. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IF THERE WAS ANY SORT OF EDDY TO
HELP WITH LIFT. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT SOUTHERN LA COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS AND THE CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE
MORNING WITH A QUICK BURNOFF IF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AT ALL. PATCHY
DENSE FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST.

FOR TUESDAY...THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT WITH MORE STABLE
SW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE LESS IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS BUT A
FEW FLAT CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...OTHERWISE EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ACROSS INTERIOR
AREAS ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT FELL AS HUMID. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING. BY TUESDAY EVENING...LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH REMNANTS FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM HERNAN BRINGING A SLUG OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
EARLIER DISCUSSION CAPTURES THE DETAILS OF THIS WELL TUE NIGHT-THU.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITUATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0530Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. S OF PT
CONCEPTION...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMDT COAST AT
AIRPORTS LIKE KLAX AND KLGB. FAST CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS BY MID
MORNING ON TUE.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT OF IFR
TO LIFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 PM
NO SIG WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING. STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/MW
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


















000
FXUS66 KLOX 290534 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...UPDATE
LOOKS LIKE STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT MORE STABLE OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECASTER AREA...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT
INCLUDING THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS DECENT
INSTABILITY POTENTIAL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY EARLIER
TODAY...TOO MUCH OF A CLOUD SHIELD PREVENTED CONVECTION TO
INITIATE...AND BEST STORM CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
CONTINUED TO BE EAST OF LA COUNTY INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON.

LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX INDICATED A RELATIVELY STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 700 FT DEEP. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IF THERE WAS ANY SORT OF EDDY TO
HELP WITH LIFT. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT SOUTHERN LA COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS AND THE CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE
MORNING WITH A QUICK BURNOFF IF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AT ALL. PATCHY
DENSE FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST.

FOR TUESDAY...THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT WITH MORE STABLE
SW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE LESS IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS BUT A
FEW FLAT CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...OTHERWISE EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ACROSS INTERIOR
AREAS ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT FELL AS HUMID. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING. BY TUESDAY EVENING...LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH REMNANTS FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM HERNAN BRINGING A SLUG OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
EARLIER DISCUSSION CAPTURES THE DETAILS OF THIS WELL TUE NIGHT-THU.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITUATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0530Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. S OF PT
CONCEPTION...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMDT COAST AT
AIRPORTS LIKE KLAX AND KLGB. FAST CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS BY MID
MORNING ON TUE.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT OF IFR
TO LIFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 PM
NO SIG WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING. STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/MW
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



















000
FXUS66 KLOX 290254
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
750 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...UPDATE
LOOKS LIKE STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT MORE STABLE OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECASTER AREA...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT
INCLUDING THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS DECENT
INSTABILITY POTENTIAL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY EARLIER
TODAY...TOO MUCH OF A CLOUD SHIELD PREVENTED CONVECTION TO
INITIATE...AND BEST STORM CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
CONTINUED TO BE EAST OF LA COUNTY INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON.

LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX INDICATED A RELATIVELY STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 700 FT DEEP. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IF THERE WAS ANY SORT OF EDDY TO
HELP WITH LIFT. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT SOUTHERN LA COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS AND THE CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE
MORNING WITH A QUICK BURNOFF IF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AT ALL. PATCHY
DENSE FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST.

FOR TUESDAY...THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT WITH MORE STABLE
SW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE LESS IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS BUT A
FEW FLAT CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...OTHERWISE EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ACROSS INTERIOR
AREAS ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT FELL AS HUMID. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING. BY TUESDAY EVENING...LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH REMNANTS FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM HERNAN BRINGING A SLUG OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
EARLIER DISCUSSION CAPTURES THE DETAILS OF THIS WELL TUE NIGHT-THU.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITUATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0130Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR LAX WAS AROUND
600 FT DEEP. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
SOUTH LA COAST AFTER 10Z. BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW DUE TO THE
MOIST MID LAYER. EXPECT IFR CIGS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR
CIGS IF INVERSION RAISES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF PACKAGE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST IN RESPECT TO IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 8Z-12Z
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 10Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS AFTER 18Z TUE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH 09Z...LESS CONFIDENCE
WITH IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT ONLY
SCATTERED STRATUS EARLY TUE MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 PM

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/MW
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 290254
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
750 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...UPDATE
LOOKS LIKE STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT MORE STABLE OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECASTER AREA...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT
INCLUDING THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS DECENT
INSTABILITY POTENTIAL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY EARLIER
TODAY...TOO MUCH OF A CLOUD SHIELD PREVENTED CONVECTION TO
INITIATE...AND BEST STORM CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
CONTINUED TO BE EAST OF LA COUNTY INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON.

LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX INDICATED A RELATIVELY STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 700 FT DEEP. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IF THERE WAS ANY SORT OF EDDY TO
HELP WITH LIFT. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT SOUTHERN LA COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS AND THE CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE
MORNING WITH A QUICK BURNOFF IF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AT ALL. PATCHY
DENSE FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST.

FOR TUESDAY...THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT WITH MORE STABLE
SW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE LESS IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS BUT A
FEW FLAT CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...OTHERWISE EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ACROSS INTERIOR
AREAS ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT FELL AS HUMID. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING. BY TUESDAY EVENING...LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH REMNANTS FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM HERNAN BRINGING A SLUG OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
EARLIER DISCUSSION CAPTURES THE DETAILS OF THIS WELL TUE NIGHT-THU.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITUATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0130Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR LAX WAS AROUND
600 FT DEEP. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
SOUTH LA COAST AFTER 10Z. BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW DUE TO THE
MOIST MID LAYER. EXPECT IFR CIGS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR
CIGS IF INVERSION RAISES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF PACKAGE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST IN RESPECT TO IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 8Z-12Z
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 10Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS AFTER 18Z TUE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH 09Z...LESS CONFIDENCE
WITH IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT ONLY
SCATTERED STRATUS EARLY TUE MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 PM

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/MW
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 290139
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
640 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN SEVERAL HOURS BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ON
RADAR WITH THE CELLS WEST OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND. WILL LEAVE IN A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OUT THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY HAS WOUND DOWN FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER STILL PRETTY HEAVY AND LIKELY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS
DIMINISHED STORMS HAVE STARTED FIRING OFF BUT NOTHING SO FAR IN OUR
CWA. WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE COULD STILL SEE A LATE START WITH BETTER
CLEARING. IN BETWEEN FOR MOST POPULATED AREAS OF OUR CWA JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO KICK OFF
STORMS OVERNIGHT SO DESPITE THERE STILL BEING SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS WELL DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY MOST AREAS TUESDAY WITH DECREASED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TSTORM FREE FOR NOW.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0130Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR LAX WAS AROUND
600 FT DEEP. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
SOUTH LA COAST AFTER 10Z. BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW DUE TO THE
MOIST MID LAYER. EXPECT IFR CIGS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR
CIGS IF INVERSION RAISES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF PACKAGE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST IN RESPECT TO IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 8Z-12Z
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALL BETWEEN 10Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS AFTER 18Z TUE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH 09Z...LESS CONFIDENCE
WITH IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT ONLY
SCATTERED STRATUS EARLY TUE MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 PM

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 290139
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
640 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN SEVERAL HOURS BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ON
RADAR WITH THE CELLS WEST OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND. WILL LEAVE IN A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OUT THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY HAS WOUND DOWN FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER STILL PRETTY HEAVY AND LIKELY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS
DIMINISHED STORMS HAVE STARTED FIRING OFF BUT NOTHING SO FAR IN OUR
CWA. WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE COULD STILL SEE A LATE START WITH BETTER
CLEARING. IN BETWEEN FOR MOST POPULATED AREAS OF OUR CWA JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO KICK OFF
STORMS OVERNIGHT SO DESPITE THERE STILL BEING SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS WELL DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY MOST AREAS TUESDAY WITH DECREASED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TSTORM FREE FOR NOW.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0130Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR LAX WAS AROUND
600 FT DEEP. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
SOUTH LA COAST AFTER 10Z. BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW DUE TO THE
MOIST MID LAYER. EXPECT IFR CIGS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR
CIGS IF INVERSION RAISES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF PACKAGE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST IN RESPECT TO IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 8Z-12Z
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALL BETWEEN 10Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS AFTER 18Z TUE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH 09Z...LESS CONFIDENCE
WITH IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT ONLY
SCATTERED STRATUS EARLY TUE MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 PM

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 282114
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN SEVERAL HOURS BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ON
RADAR WITH THE CELLS WEST OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND. WILL LEAVE IN A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OUT THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY HAS WOUND DOWN FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER STILL PRETTY HEAVY AND LIKELY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS
DIMINISHED STORMS HAVE STARTED FIRING OFF BUT NOTHING SO FAR IN OUR
CWA. WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE COULD STILL SEE A LATE START WITH BETTER
CLEARING. IN BETWEEN FOR MOST POPULATED AREAS OF OUR CWA JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO KICK OFF
STORMS OVERNIGHT SO DESPITE THERE STILL BEING SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS WELL DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY MOST AREAS TUESDAY WITH DECREASED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TSTORM FREE FOR NOW.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 PM

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 282114
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN SEVERAL HOURS BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ON
RADAR WITH THE CELLS WEST OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND. WILL LEAVE IN A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OUT THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY HAS WOUND DOWN FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER STILL PRETTY HEAVY AND LIKELY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS
DIMINISHED STORMS HAVE STARTED FIRING OFF BUT NOTHING SO FAR IN OUR
CWA. WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE COULD STILL SEE A LATE START WITH BETTER
CLEARING. IN BETWEEN FOR MOST POPULATED AREAS OF OUR CWA JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO KICK OFF
STORMS OVERNIGHT SO DESPITE THERE STILL BEING SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS WELL DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY MOST AREAS TUESDAY WITH DECREASED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TSTORM FREE FOR NOW.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 PM

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 282009
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
110 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN SEVERAL HOURS BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ON
RADAR WITH THE CELLS WEST OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND. WILL LEAVE IN A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OUT THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY HAS WOUND DOWN FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER STILL PRETTY HEAVY AND LIKELY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS
DIMINISHED STORMS HAVE STARTED FIRING OFF BUT NOTHING SO FAR IN OUR
CWA. WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE COULD STILL SEE A LATE START WITH BETTER
CLEARING. IN BETWEEN FOR MOST POPULATED AREAS OF OUR CWA JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO KICK OFF
STORMS OVERNIGHT SO DESPITE THERE STILL BEING SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS WELL DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY MOST AREAS TUESDAY WITH DECREASED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TSTORM FREE FOR NOW.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 282009
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
110 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN SEVERAL HOURS BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ON
RADAR WITH THE CELLS WEST OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND. WILL LEAVE IN A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OUT THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY HAS WOUND DOWN FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER STILL PRETTY HEAVY AND LIKELY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS
DIMINISHED STORMS HAVE STARTED FIRING OFF BUT NOTHING SO FAR IN OUR
CWA. WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE COULD STILL SEE A LATE START WITH BETTER
CLEARING. IN BETWEEN FOR MOST POPULATED AREAS OF OUR CWA JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO KICK OFF
STORMS OVERNIGHT SO DESPITE THERE STILL BEING SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS WELL DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY MOST AREAS TUESDAY WITH DECREASED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TSTORM FREE FOR NOW.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 281925
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1225 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES HAVE KICKED OFF SOME CONVECTION
THIS MORNING, SO FAR CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS, THOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER LAND. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT CONVECTION
NEAR AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS AIR MASS STABILIZES. HOWEVER, SOME DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
MTNS AND DESERTS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING,
THOUGH HOW MUCH HEATING WE GET WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON CLOUD COVER
WHICH AT THE PRESENT TIME IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL. THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT WE`LL GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW ENOUGH HEATING TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A THREAT OF MTN/DESERT
THUNDERSTORMS. SO FOR NOW AM NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES OVER AND NEAR THE
COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING, WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING TO INTERIOR
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE DOOR REMAINS OPEN FOR MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS NOT INDICATING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME INTERIOR INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING SMALL TSTORM CHANCES
FOR MTNS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME ENERGY SPLITTING OFF FROM WHAT WAS
HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE SOME MORE CONVECTION OVER AND NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE, TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BUT
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN USUAL HUMIDITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH LINGERING OVER ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 281925
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1225 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES HAVE KICKED OFF SOME CONVECTION
THIS MORNING, SO FAR CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS, THOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER LAND. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT CONVECTION
NEAR AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS AIR MASS STABILIZES. HOWEVER, SOME DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
MTNS AND DESERTS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING,
THOUGH HOW MUCH HEATING WE GET WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON CLOUD COVER
WHICH AT THE PRESENT TIME IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL. THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT WE`LL GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW ENOUGH HEATING TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A THREAT OF MTN/DESERT
THUNDERSTORMS. SO FOR NOW AM NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES OVER AND NEAR THE
COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING, WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING TO INTERIOR
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE DOOR REMAINS OPEN FOR MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS NOT INDICATING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME INTERIOR INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING SMALL TSTORM CHANCES
FOR MTNS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME ENERGY SPLITTING OFF FROM WHAT WAS
HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE SOME MORE CONVECTION OVER AND NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE, TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BUT
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN USUAL HUMIDITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH LINGERING OVER ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 281630
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES HAVE KICKED OFF SOME CONVECTION
THIS MORNING, SO FAR CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS, THOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER LAND. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT CONVECTION
NEAR AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS AIR MASS STABILIZES. HOWEVER, SOME DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
MTNS AND DESERTS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING,
THOUGH HOW MUCH HEATING WE GET WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON CLOUD COVER
WHICH AT THE PRESENT TIME IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL. THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT WE`LL GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW ENOUGH HEATING TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A THREAT OF MTN/DESERT
THUNDERSTORMS. SO FOR NOW AM NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES OVER AND NEAR THE
COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING, WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING TO INTERIOR
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE DOOR REMAINS OPEN FOR MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS NOT INDICATING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME INTERIOR INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING SMALL TSTORM CHANCES
FOR MTNS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME ENERGY SPLITTING OFF FROM WHAT WAS
HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE SOME MORE CONVECTION OVER AND NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE, TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BUT
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN USUAL HUMIDITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH LINGERING OVER ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1130Z

THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AT ANY
LOCATION TODAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ALL COASTAL TAFS AS CIGS MAY APPEAR OR DISAPPEAR AT
RANDOM THROUGH 17Z. THE LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS EARLIER
THAN FCST TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF CIGS COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME BUT IF
THEY DOE THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE IFR CIGS WILL REFORM.
A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 20Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 281130
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...A DECENT VORT MAX ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS CAUSED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SO FAR...RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SLO AND WESTERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS YET BEEN DETECTED IN THIS REGION.
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DRIFT INTO AT LEAST EASTERN
SECTIONS OF VTU COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. WILL JUST GO WITH AREAL
SHWR/TSTM WORDING FOR ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LIKELY REMAINING FOCUSED OVER L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES.

AS THE VORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...THE MID LEVEL LIFT WILL
WEAKEN...SO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OR END IN MOST
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS BY NOON OR SO. THEN...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING. THE WRF SHOWS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
MTNS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO
THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THERE
AS THE LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
SYNOPTICALLY INDUCED TO OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED. A TSTM OR TWO COULD
DRIFT INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AND THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SERN SLO COUNTY
AS WELL. WITH GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOODING ISSUES
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS
TIME...MAINLY BECAUSE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING TO PRODUCE MORE THAN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
TSTMS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE VERY TRICKY TODAY. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE WARM...AND TEMPS WILL
RISE QUICKLY AS THEY DID LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY IF SKIES BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY.

AN UPPER HIGH JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EXPAND INTO
THE REGION ON TUE AND LINGER THROUGH WED...WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE
INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN THE MTNS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH DECREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...BUT CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE
COAST TUE AND WED. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY...REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH LINGERING OVER ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1130Z

THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AT ANY
LOCATION TODAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ALL COASTAL TAFS AS CIGS MAY APPEAR OR DISAPPEAR AT
RANDOM THROUGH 17Z. THE LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS EARLIER
THAN FCST TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF CIGS COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME BUT IF
THEY DOE THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE IFR CIGS WILL REFORM.
A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 20Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...

28/300 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY... WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 281130
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...A DECENT VORT MAX ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS CAUSED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SO FAR...RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SLO AND WESTERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS YET BEEN DETECTED IN THIS REGION.
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DRIFT INTO AT LEAST EASTERN
SECTIONS OF VTU COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. WILL JUST GO WITH AREAL
SHWR/TSTM WORDING FOR ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LIKELY REMAINING FOCUSED OVER L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES.

AS THE VORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...THE MID LEVEL LIFT WILL
WEAKEN...SO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OR END IN MOST
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS BY NOON OR SO. THEN...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING. THE WRF SHOWS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
MTNS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO
THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THERE
AS THE LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
SYNOPTICALLY INDUCED TO OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED. A TSTM OR TWO COULD
DRIFT INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AND THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SERN SLO COUNTY
AS WELL. WITH GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOODING ISSUES
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS
TIME...MAINLY BECAUSE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING TO PRODUCE MORE THAN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
TSTMS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE VERY TRICKY TODAY. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE WARM...AND TEMPS WILL
RISE QUICKLY AS THEY DID LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY IF SKIES BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY.

AN UPPER HIGH JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EXPAND INTO
THE REGION ON TUE AND LINGER THROUGH WED...WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE
INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN THE MTNS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH DECREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...BUT CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE
COAST TUE AND WED. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY...REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH LINGERING OVER ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1130Z

THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AT ANY
LOCATION TODAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ALL COASTAL TAFS AS CIGS MAY APPEAR OR DISAPPEAR AT
RANDOM THROUGH 17Z. THE LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS EARLIER
THAN FCST TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF CIGS COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME BUT IF
THEY DOE THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE IFR CIGS WILL REFORM.
A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 20Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...

28/300 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY... WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 281107
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
335 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE CONTINUING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RATHER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...A DECENT VORT MAX ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS CAUSED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SO FAR...RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SLO AND WESTERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS YET BEEN DETECTED IN THIS REGION.
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DRIFT INTO AT LEAST EASTERN
SECTIONS OF VTU COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. WILL JUST GO WITH AREAL
SHWR/TSTM WORDING FOR ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LIKELY REMAINING FOCUSED OVER L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES.

AS THE VORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...THE MID LEVEL LIFT WILL
WEAKEN...SO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OR END IN MOST
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS BY NOON OR SO. THEN...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING. THE WRF SHOWS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
MTNS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO
THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THERE
AS THE LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
SYNOPTICALLY INDUCED TO OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED. A TSTM OR TWO COULD
DRIFT INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AND THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SERN SLO COUNTY
AS WELL. WITH GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOODING ISSUES
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS
TIME...MAINLY BECAUSE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING TO PRODUCE MORE THAN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
TSTMS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE VERY TRICKY TODAY. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE WARM...AND TEMPS WILL
RISE QUICKLY AS THEY DID LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY IF SKIES BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY.

AN UPPER HIGH JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EXPAND INTO
THE REGION ON TUE AND LINGER THROUGH WED...WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE
INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN THE MTNS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH DECREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...BUT CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE
COAST TUE AND WED. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY...REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH LINGERING OVER ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MARINE...

28/300 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY... WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 281107
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
335 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE CONTINUING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RATHER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...A DECENT VORT MAX ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS CAUSED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SO FAR...RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SLO AND WESTERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS YET BEEN DETECTED IN THIS REGION.
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DRIFT INTO AT LEAST EASTERN
SECTIONS OF VTU COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. WILL JUST GO WITH AREAL
SHWR/TSTM WORDING FOR ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LIKELY REMAINING FOCUSED OVER L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES.

AS THE VORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...THE MID LEVEL LIFT WILL
WEAKEN...SO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OR END IN MOST
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS BY NOON OR SO. THEN...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING. THE WRF SHOWS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
MTNS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO
THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THERE
AS THE LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
SYNOPTICALLY INDUCED TO OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED. A TSTM OR TWO COULD
DRIFT INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AND THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SERN SLO COUNTY
AS WELL. WITH GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOODING ISSUES
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS
TIME...MAINLY BECAUSE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING TO PRODUCE MORE THAN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
TSTMS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE VERY TRICKY TODAY. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE WARM...AND TEMPS WILL
RISE QUICKLY AS THEY DID LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY IF SKIES BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY.

AN UPPER HIGH JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EXPAND INTO
THE REGION ON TUE AND LINGER THROUGH WED...WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE
INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN THE MTNS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH DECREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...BUT CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE
COAST TUE AND WED. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY...REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH LINGERING OVER ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MARINE...

28/300 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY... WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 280547 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
A GOOD SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
TODAY...AS EVIDENT BY THE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWING
VALUES BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INTERACTED WITH THIS MOISTURE TO TRIGGER THE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE SAW EARLIER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND CATALINA ISLAND. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DIMINISHED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS CONVECTION TO OUR EAST. AS OF 745 PM...DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STORM ACTIVITY ALONG INTERSTATE 15 BETWEEN
VICTORVILLE AND BARSTOW THAT CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD
TOWARDS LOS ANGELES COUNTY. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
THESE STORMS COULD DRIFT INTO PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE HAVE REMOVED ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR
REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

00Z NAM MODEL SHOWING AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS KEYING IN ON TWO UPPER
LEVEL WAVES THAT COULD AID IN CONVECTION. THE FIRST IS A WAVE THAT
SETS UP ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES/SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BORDER
OVERNIGHT. AND THE SECOND IS A WAVE THAT COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CHANNEL ISLANDS...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
THE VENTURA COAST AND SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST.

ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER VERY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND AREAS INTO MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATED A PV CENTER MOVING NORTH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. GUIDANCE DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS
CONSISTENT BETWEEN SUITES. HAVE NOT INCLUDED POPS DUE TO THE DRY AIR
MASS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL DIFFER LITTLE FROM DAY TO
DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LIKELY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WELL INLAND AND AROUND NORMAL ELSEWHERE.


&&

.AVIATION...27/0545Z.
LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON...THEN IN THE MTNS
AND DESERTS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LVL MOISTURE HAS
DISRUPTED THE LOW CLOUD FIELD...BUT IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE
COAST N OF PT CONCEPTION...AND EXPECT AREAS OF IFR CIGS NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY FROM VTU COUNTY NW OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
MONDAY.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MON EVENING.THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

27/800 PM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY... WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/30
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 280547 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
A GOOD SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
TODAY...AS EVIDENT BY THE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWING
VALUES BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INTERACTED WITH THIS MOISTURE TO TRIGGER THE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE SAW EARLIER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND CATALINA ISLAND. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DIMINISHED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS CONVECTION TO OUR EAST. AS OF 745 PM...DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STORM ACTIVITY ALONG INTERSTATE 15 BETWEEN
VICTORVILLE AND BARSTOW THAT CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD
TOWARDS LOS ANGELES COUNTY. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
THESE STORMS COULD DRIFT INTO PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE HAVE REMOVED ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR
REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

00Z NAM MODEL SHOWING AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS KEYING IN ON TWO UPPER
LEVEL WAVES THAT COULD AID IN CONVECTION. THE FIRST IS A WAVE THAT
SETS UP ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES/SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BORDER
OVERNIGHT. AND THE SECOND IS A WAVE THAT COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CHANNEL ISLANDS...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
THE VENTURA COAST AND SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST.

ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER VERY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND AREAS INTO MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATED A PV CENTER MOVING NORTH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. GUIDANCE DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS
CONSISTENT BETWEEN SUITES. HAVE NOT INCLUDED POPS DUE TO THE DRY AIR
MASS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL DIFFER LITTLE FROM DAY TO
DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LIKELY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WELL INLAND AND AROUND NORMAL ELSEWHERE.


&&

.AVIATION...27/0545Z.
LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON...THEN IN THE MTNS
AND DESERTS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LVL MOISTURE HAS
DISRUPTED THE LOW CLOUD FIELD...BUT IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE
COAST N OF PT CONCEPTION...AND EXPECT AREAS OF IFR CIGS NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY FROM VTU COUNTY NW OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
MONDAY.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MON EVENING.THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

27/800 PM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY... WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/30
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 280306
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
A GOOD SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
TODAY...AS EVIDENT BY THE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWING
VALUES BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
INTERACTED WITH THIS MOISTURE TO TRIGGER THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WE SAW EARLIER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOS ANGELES BASIN AND
CATALINA ISLAND. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHED ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS CONVECTION TO OUR
EAST. AS OF 745 PM...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STORM ACTIVITY
ALONG INTERSTATE 15 BETWEEN VICTORVILLE AND BARSTOW THAT CONTINUES TO
TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARDS LOS ANGELES COUNTY. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THESE STORMS COULD DRIFT INTO PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES COUNTY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE HAVE REMOVED ANY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.

00Z NAM MODEL SHOWING AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS KEYING IN ON TWO UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT COULD AID IN CONVECTION. THE FIRST IS A WAVE THAT
SETS UP ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES/SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BORDER
OVERNIGHT. AND THE SECOND IS A WAVE THAT COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CHANNEL ISLANDS...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
THE VENTURA COAST AND SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST.

ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER VERY WARM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND AREAS INTO MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATED A PV CENTER MOVING NORTH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. GUIDANCE DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS
CONSISTENT BETWEEN SUITES. HAVE NOT INCLUDED POPS DUE TO THE DRY AIR
MASS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL DIFFER LITTLE FROM DAY TO
DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LIKELY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WELL INLAND AND AROUND NORMAL ELSEWHERE.


&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST.
OTHERWISE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF SOUTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH
AND APPROACH THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BECOME MODERATE
BETWEEN 27/06-27/18Z OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DESERT
BETWEEN 26/20-27/03Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH APPROXIMATELY
20KT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN 27/06-27/17Z AND STORMS WILL NORTH 10-15KT. WEAK TO MODERATE
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 27/03Z AND AFTER 27/20Z OTHERWISE
WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT. MARINE LAYER CLOUD TOP WAS APPROXIMATELY 1KFT
THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS .3KFT SUNDAY MORNING.

KLAX...CIGS 005 AT TIMES THROUGH 26/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 004 BETWEEN
27/03-27/14Z AND CIGS 007 BETWEEN 27/14-27/17Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 27/11Z THEN CHANCE
VSBY 5SM HZ. VERY UNLIKELY MARINE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BUT
INCREASING CHANCE AFTER 27/11Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...

27/800 PM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY... WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/30
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 280306
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
A GOOD SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
TODAY...AS EVIDENT BY THE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWING
VALUES BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
INTERACTED WITH THIS MOISTURE TO TRIGGER THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WE SAW EARLIER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOS ANGELES BASIN AND
CATALINA ISLAND. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHED ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS CONVECTION TO OUR
EAST. AS OF 745 PM...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STORM ACTIVITY
ALONG INTERSTATE 15 BETWEEN VICTORVILLE AND BARSTOW THAT CONTINUES TO
TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARDS LOS ANGELES COUNTY. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THESE STORMS COULD DRIFT INTO PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES COUNTY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE HAVE REMOVED ANY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.

00Z NAM MODEL SHOWING AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS KEYING IN ON TWO UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT COULD AID IN CONVECTION. THE FIRST IS A WAVE THAT
SETS UP ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES/SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BORDER
OVERNIGHT. AND THE SECOND IS A WAVE THAT COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CHANNEL ISLANDS...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
THE VENTURA COAST AND SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST.

ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER VERY WARM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND AREAS INTO MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATED A PV CENTER MOVING NORTH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. GUIDANCE DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS
CONSISTENT BETWEEN SUITES. HAVE NOT INCLUDED POPS DUE TO THE DRY AIR
MASS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL DIFFER LITTLE FROM DAY TO
DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LIKELY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WELL INLAND AND AROUND NORMAL ELSEWHERE.


&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST.
OTHERWISE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF SOUTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH
AND APPROACH THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BECOME MODERATE
BETWEEN 27/06-27/18Z OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DESERT
BETWEEN 26/20-27/03Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH APPROXIMATELY
20KT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN 27/06-27/17Z AND STORMS WILL NORTH 10-15KT. WEAK TO MODERATE
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 27/03Z AND AFTER 27/20Z OTHERWISE
WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT. MARINE LAYER CLOUD TOP WAS APPROXIMATELY 1KFT
THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS .3KFT SUNDAY MORNING.

KLAX...CIGS 005 AT TIMES THROUGH 26/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 004 BETWEEN
27/03-27/14Z AND CIGS 007 BETWEEN 27/14-27/17Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 27/11Z THEN CHANCE
VSBY 5SM HZ. VERY UNLIKELY MARINE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BUT
INCREASING CHANCE AFTER 27/11Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...

27/800 PM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY... WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/30
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 272107
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTIES
AND MOST OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY TODAY...WITH A LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...A LINE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED
FROM PALOS VERDE TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND AND WAS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
NORTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 12KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CELLS
WERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE VENTURA/KERN COUNTY LINE AS WELL AS OVER
THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. OVER ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN WAS REPORTED
NEAR AVALON EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR
SHORE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AND THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY INLAND
MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE MOISTURE FETCH EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. GUIDANCE INDICATED A LESS
UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAN TODAY OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL INSTABILITY HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EXCLUDING THE INTERIOR
PORTION OF SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE MADE
MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
DIFFER BY PLUS ONE OR TWO DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WELL INLAND AND AROUND NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATED A PV CENTER MOVING NORTH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. GUIDANCE DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS
CONSISTENT BETWEEN SUITES. HAVE NOT INCLUDED POPS DUE TO THE DRY AIR
MASS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL DIFFER LITTLE FROM DAY TO
DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LIKELY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WELL INLAND AND AROUND NORMAL ELSEWHERE.


&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST.
OTHERWISE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF SOUTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH
AND APPROACH THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BECOME MODERATE
BETWEEN 27/06-27/18Z OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DESERT
BETWEEN 26/20-27/03Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH APPROXIMATELY
20KT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN 27/06-27/17Z AND STORMS WILL NORTH 10-15KT. WEAK TO MODERATE
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 27/03Z AND AFTER 27/20Z OTHERWISE
WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT. MARINE LAYER CLOUD TOP WAS APPROXIMATELY 1KFT
THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS .3KFT SUNDAY MORNING.

KLAX...CIGS 005 AT TIMES THROUGH 26/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 004 BETWEEN
27/03-27/14Z AND CIGS 007 BETWEEN 27/14-27/17Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 27/11Z THEN CHANCE
VSBY 5SM HZ. VERY UNLIKELY MARINE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BUT
INCREASING CHANCE AFTER 27/11Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...

27/230 PM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY... WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271803
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA
COUNTIES AND MOST OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY TODAY...WITH A LINGERING
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LATEST GUIDANCE INITIALIZED REASONABLY
WELL AND DIFFERED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AT INITIALIZATION
TIME. THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AND SKIRTING THE FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WIDE
AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL CAPE AND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH
AND DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE BROKEN/OVERCAST MID LEVEL
MOSITURE FIELD CURRENTLY PROPAGATING NORTHWEST OVER LOS
ANGELES/VENTURA COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHWEST
AND BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
ORIGINATING FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN BAJA IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER AREA THIS EVENING WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST
SKIES OVER SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. OTHERWISE THE LATEST RUC INDICATED
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA FROM APPLE
VALLEY AND EXTENDING SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST SLOWLY AND
THE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN APPLE VALLEY MAY INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THE FOLLOWING IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

IF TSTMS DO DEVELOP...FAIRLY JUICY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STEERING
FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT ONLY MARGINALLY SO...SO THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE SOMEWHERE ON THE BORDER OF LOW AND MODERATE.

THE GFS INDICATES SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER VORT
SWINGING INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTER THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THEY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
IN SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS...
ESPECIALLY IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA THROUGH TUE. IT NOW LOOKS AS THROUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
MTNS OF SBA...VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EVEN WEAKER THAN
IT IS TODAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN SOME...SO THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP SHOULD BE A BIT
LOWER. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES IF CLOUD
COVER TODAY KEEPS TEMPS DOWN.

NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE NO REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER VLY LOCATIONS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MARINE LAYER LOCATION... INTENSITY... AND DURATION.  PRIMARY CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SERVICE AREA.  THESE WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION PERIODICALLY TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF SOME MOVING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL RETURN TONIGHT BUT WITH
HIGH CLOUD COVER IT SHOULD NOT BE AS INTENSE AND UNIFORM AS IT WAS
THIS MORNING.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT BUT THEY ARE WIDELY SPACED
ENOUGH TO BE UNCERTAIN AS TO IF THEY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
LOCATION.  PRIMARY TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
THROUGH 23Z BUT THEY ARE POSSIBLE PERIODICALLY THROUGH MONDAY.  THE
MARINE LAYER WILL REFORM TONIGHT BUT WITH LESS INTENSITY AND
UNIFORMITY.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT BUT THEY ARE WIDELY SPACED
ENOUGH TO BE UNCERTAIN AS TO IF THEY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
LOCATION.  PRIMARY TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
THROUGH 23Z BUT THEY ARE POSSIBLE PERIODICALLY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY ON MONDAY... WITH LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...30/DB
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 271639
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA
COUNTIES AND MOST OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY TODAY...WITH A LINGERING
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LATEST GUIDANCE INITIALIZED REASONABLY
WELL AND DIFFERED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AT INITIALIZATION
TIME. THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AND SKIRTING THE FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WIDE
AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL CAPE AND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH
AND DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE BROKEN/OVERCAST MID LEVEL
MOSITURE FIELD CURRENTLY PROPAGATING NORTHWEST OVER LOS
ANGELES/VENTURA COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHWEST
AND BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
ORIGINATING FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN BAJA IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER AREA THIS EVENING WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST
SKIES OVER SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. OTHERWISE THE LATEST RUC INDICATED
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA FROM APPLE
VALLEY AND EXTENDING SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST SLOWLY AND
THE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN APPLE VALLEY MAY INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THE FOLLOWING IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

IF TSTMS DO DEVELOP...FAIRLY JUICY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STEERING
FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT ONLY MARGINALLY SO...SO THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE SOMEWHERE ON THE BORDER OF LOW AND MODERATE.

THE GFS INDICATES SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER VORT
SWINGING INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTER THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THEY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
IN SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS...
ESPECIALLY IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA THROUGH TUE. IT NOW LOOKS AS THROUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
MTNS OF SBA...VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EVEN WEAKER THAN
IT IS TODAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN SOME...SO THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP SHOULD BE A BIT
LOWER. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES IF CLOUD
COVER TODAY KEEPS TEMPS DOWN.

NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE NO REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER VLY LOCATIONS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1145Z

MARINE LAYER IS 800 FEET DEEP AND STRATUS COVERS MOST OF THE COAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS AS BURN OFF WILL BE VERY HAPHAZARD
DUE TO THE OVERRUNNING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH
THE EVENING. MARINE LAYER WILL FORM IN A RANDOM MANOR TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH BURN OFF POSSIBLE ANYTIME FROM 16Z
TO 20Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FROM 15Z TO
04Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM FROM 15Z TO 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...

27/900 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY ON MONDAY... WITH LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30/DB
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 271639
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA
COUNTIES AND MOST OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY TODAY...WITH A LINGERING
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LATEST GUIDANCE INITIALIZED REASONABLY
WELL AND DIFFERED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AT INITIALIZATION
TIME. THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AND SKIRTING THE FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WIDE
AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL CAPE AND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH
AND DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE BROKEN/OVERCAST MID LEVEL
MOSITURE FIELD CURRENTLY PROPAGATING NORTHWEST OVER LOS
ANGELES/VENTURA COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHWEST
AND BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
ORIGINATING FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN BAJA IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER AREA THIS EVENING WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST
SKIES OVER SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. OTHERWISE THE LATEST RUC INDICATED
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA FROM APPLE
VALLEY AND EXTENDING SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST SLOWLY AND
THE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN APPLE VALLEY MAY INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THE FOLLOWING IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

IF TSTMS DO DEVELOP...FAIRLY JUICY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STEERING
FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT ONLY MARGINALLY SO...SO THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE SOMEWHERE ON THE BORDER OF LOW AND MODERATE.

THE GFS INDICATES SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER VORT
SWINGING INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTER THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THEY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
IN SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS...
ESPECIALLY IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA THROUGH TUE. IT NOW LOOKS AS THROUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
MTNS OF SBA...VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EVEN WEAKER THAN
IT IS TODAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN SOME...SO THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP SHOULD BE A BIT
LOWER. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES IF CLOUD
COVER TODAY KEEPS TEMPS DOWN.

NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE NO REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER VLY LOCATIONS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1145Z

MARINE LAYER IS 800 FEET DEEP AND STRATUS COVERS MOST OF THE COAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS AS BURN OFF WILL BE VERY HAPHAZARD
DUE TO THE OVERRUNNING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH
THE EVENING. MARINE LAYER WILL FORM IN A RANDOM MANOR TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH BURN OFF POSSIBLE ANYTIME FROM 16Z
TO 20Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FROM 15Z TO
04Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM FROM 15Z TO 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...

27/900 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY ON MONDAY... WITH LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30/DB
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 271323
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTIES
AND MOST OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY TODAY...WITH A LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...A LARGE SWATH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...AND SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED WITHIN THIS BAND. IT WAS
LIFTING NWD...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. ANOTHER SWATH OF GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS LOCATED ACROSS LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND ERN VTU COUNTY...AND ITS
AXIS HAS BEEN WORKING SLOWLY WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS
BEGUN TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS L.A. COUNTY...BUT SO FAR RAIN
GAUGES HAVE NOT REPORTED ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP...LIKELY DUE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AT LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE RADAR ECHO COVERAGE HAS
BEEN INCREASING DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MEASURABLE SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. SOME OF THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY WORK WESTWARD INTO VENTURA COUNTY AS WELL.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REALLY DISRUPTED BY THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND WERE CONFINED MAINLY TO COASTAL AREAS FROM VTU COUNTY
NORTHWARD.

THE SHOWER/TSTM FORECAST FOR TODAY IS RATHER TRICKY. THE
06Z WRF DOES SHOW A DECENT VORT ROTATING NWWD INTO LOS ANGELES
COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOWS MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
MTNS OF SBA...VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. THE GFS
HAS THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH ALL
THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND THE MTNS OF VTU AND SBA
COUNTIES. MAY HAVE TO EXPAND POPS IN TO VTU AND SRN SBA COUNTIES AS
WELL. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF THICK MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVECTION. A LOOK AT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OR
THINNER CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED...AND MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY WILL HAVE TO BE LOWERED AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. IF TSTMS DO
DEVELOP...FAIRLY JUICY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SOME INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STEERING FLOW IS GENERALLY
WEAK...BUT ONLY MARGINALLY SO...SO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE SOMEWHERE ON THE BORDER OF LOW AND MODERATE.

THE GFS INDICATES SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER VORT
SWINGING INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTER THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THEY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
IN SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS...
ESPECIALLY IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA THROUGH TUE. IT NOW LOOKS AS THROUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
MTNS OF SBA...VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EVEN WEAKER THAN
IT IS TODAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN SOME...SO THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP SHOULD BE A BIT
LOWER. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES IF CLOUD
COVER TODAY KEEPS TEMPS DOWN.

NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE NO REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER VLY LOCATIONS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1145Z

MARINE LAYER IS 800 FEET DEEP AND STRATUS COVERS MOST OF THE COAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS AS BURN OFF WILL BE VERY HAPHAZARD
DUE TO THE OVERRUNNING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH
THE EVENING. MARINE LAYER WILL FORM IN A RANDOM MANOR TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH BURN OFF POSSIBLE ANYTIME FROM 16Z
TO 20Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FROM 15Z TO
04Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM FROM 15Z TO 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...

27/330 AM

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ZONE PZZ655 TODAY.
THIS THUNDERSTORM THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING
AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN BENIGN COASTAL WATERS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 271323
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTIES
AND MOST OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY TODAY...WITH A LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...A LARGE SWATH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...AND SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED WITHIN THIS BAND. IT WAS
LIFTING NWD...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. ANOTHER SWATH OF GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS LOCATED ACROSS LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND ERN VTU COUNTY...AND ITS
AXIS HAS BEEN WORKING SLOWLY WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS
BEGUN TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS L.A. COUNTY...BUT SO FAR RAIN
GAUGES HAVE NOT REPORTED ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP...LIKELY DUE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AT LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE RADAR ECHO COVERAGE HAS
BEEN INCREASING DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MEASURABLE SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. SOME OF THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY WORK WESTWARD INTO VENTURA COUNTY AS WELL.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REALLY DISRUPTED BY THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND WERE CONFINED MAINLY TO COASTAL AREAS FROM VTU COUNTY
NORTHWARD.

THE SHOWER/TSTM FORECAST FOR TODAY IS RATHER TRICKY. THE
06Z WRF DOES SHOW A DECENT VORT ROTATING NWWD INTO LOS ANGELES
COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOWS MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
MTNS OF SBA...VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. THE GFS
HAS THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH ALL
THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND THE MTNS OF VTU AND SBA
COUNTIES. MAY HAVE TO EXPAND POPS IN TO VTU AND SRN SBA COUNTIES AS
WELL. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF THICK MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVECTION. A LOOK AT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OR
THINNER CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED...AND MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY WILL HAVE TO BE LOWERED AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. IF TSTMS DO
DEVELOP...FAIRLY JUICY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SOME INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STEERING FLOW IS GENERALLY
WEAK...BUT ONLY MARGINALLY SO...SO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE SOMEWHERE ON THE BORDER OF LOW AND MODERATE.

THE GFS INDICATES SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER VORT
SWINGING INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTER THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THEY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
IN SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS...
ESPECIALLY IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA THROUGH TUE. IT NOW LOOKS AS THROUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
MTNS OF SBA...VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EVEN WEAKER THAN
IT IS TODAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN SOME...SO THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP SHOULD BE A BIT
LOWER. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES IF CLOUD
COVER TODAY KEEPS TEMPS DOWN.

NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE NO REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER VLY LOCATIONS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1145Z

MARINE LAYER IS 800 FEET DEEP AND STRATUS COVERS MOST OF THE COAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS AS BURN OFF WILL BE VERY HAPHAZARD
DUE TO THE OVERRUNNING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH
THE EVENING. MARINE LAYER WILL FORM IN A RANDOM MANOR TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH BURN OFF POSSIBLE ANYTIME FROM 16Z
TO 20Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FROM 15Z TO
04Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM FROM 15Z TO 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...

27/330 AM

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ZONE PZZ655 TODAY.
THIS THUNDERSTORM THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING
AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN BENIGN COASTAL WATERS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 271200
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTIES
AND MOST OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY TODAY...WITH A LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...A LARGE SWATH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...AND SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED WITHIN THIS BAND. IT WAS
LIFTING NWD...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. ANOTHER SWATH OF GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS LOCATED ACROSS LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND ERN VTU COUNTY...AND ITS
AXIS HAS BEEN WORKING SLOWLY WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS
BEGUN TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS L.A. COUNTY...BUT SO FAR RAIN
GAUGES HAVE NOT REPORTED ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP...LIKELY DUE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AT LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE RADAR ECHO COVERAGE HAS
BEEN INCREASING DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MEASURABLE SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. SOME OF THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY WORK WESTWARD INTO VENTURA COUNTY AS WELL.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REALLY DISRUPTED BY THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND WERE CONFINED MAINLY TO COASTAL AREAS FROM VTU COUNTY
NORTHWARD.

THE SHOWER/TSTM FORECAST FOR TODAY IS RATHER TRICKY. THE
06Z WRF DOES SHOW A DECENT VORT ROTATING NWWD INTO LOS ANGELES
COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOWS MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
MTNS OF SBA...VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. THE GFS
HAS THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH ALL
THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND THE MTNS OF VTU AND SBA
COUNTIES. MAY HAVE TO EXPAND POPS IN TO VTU AND SRN SBA COUNTIES AS
WELL. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF THICK MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVECTION. A LOOK A
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OR
THINNER CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED...AND MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY WILL HAVE TO BE LOWERED AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. IF TSTMS DO
DEVELOP...FAIRLY JUICY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SOME INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STEERING FLOW IS GENERALLY
WEAK...ONLY MARGINALLY SO...SO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
SOMEWHERE ON THE BORDER OF LOW AND MODERATE.

THE GFS INDICATES SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER VORT
SWINGING INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTER THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THEY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
IN SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA THROUGH TUE. IT NOW LOOKS AS THROUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
MTNS OF SBA...VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EVEN WEAKER THAN
IT IS TODAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN SOME...SO THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP SHOULD BE A BIT
LOWER. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES IF CLOUD
COVER TODAY KEEPS TEMPS DOWN.

NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE NO REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER VLY LOCATIONS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1145Z

MARINE LAYER IS 800 FEET DEEP AND STRATUS COVERS MOST OF THE COAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS AS BURN OFF WILL BE VERY HAPHAZARD
DUE TO THE OVERRUNNING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH
THE EVENING. MARINE LAYER WILL FORM IN A RANDOM MANOR TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH BURN OFF POSSIBLE ANYTIME FROM 16Z
TO 20Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FROM 15Z TO
04Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM FROM 15Z TO 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...

27/330 AM

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ZONE PZZ655 TODAY.
THIS THUNDERSTORM THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING
AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN BENIGN COASTAL WATERS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 271200
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTIES
AND MOST OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY TODAY...WITH A LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...A LARGE SWATH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...AND SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED WITHIN THIS BAND. IT WAS
LIFTING NWD...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. ANOTHER SWATH OF GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS LOCATED ACROSS LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND ERN VTU COUNTY...AND ITS
AXIS HAS BEEN WORKING SLOWLY WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS
BEGUN TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS L.A. COUNTY...BUT SO FAR RAIN
GAUGES HAVE NOT REPORTED ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP...LIKELY DUE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AT LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE RADAR ECHO COVERAGE HAS
BEEN INCREASING DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MEASURABLE SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. SOME OF THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY WORK WESTWARD INTO VENTURA COUNTY AS WELL.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REALLY DISRUPTED BY THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND WERE CONFINED MAINLY TO COASTAL AREAS FROM VTU COUNTY
NORTHWARD.

THE SHOWER/TSTM FORECAST FOR TODAY IS RATHER TRICKY. THE
06Z WRF DOES SHOW A DECENT VORT ROTATING NWWD INTO LOS ANGELES
COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOWS MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
MTNS OF SBA...VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. THE GFS
HAS THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH ALL
THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND THE MTNS OF VTU AND SBA
COUNTIES. MAY HAVE TO EXPAND POPS IN TO VTU AND SRN SBA COUNTIES AS
WELL. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF THICK MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVECTION. A LOOK A
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OR
THINNER CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED...AND MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY WILL HAVE TO BE LOWERED AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. IF TSTMS DO
DEVELOP...FAIRLY JUICY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SOME INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STEERING FLOW IS GENERALLY
WEAK...ONLY MARGINALLY SO...SO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
SOMEWHERE ON THE BORDER OF LOW AND MODERATE.

THE GFS INDICATES SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER VORT
SWINGING INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTER THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THEY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
IN SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA THROUGH TUE. IT NOW LOOKS AS THROUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
MTNS OF SBA...VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EVEN WEAKER THAN
IT IS TODAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN SOME...SO THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP SHOULD BE A BIT
LOWER. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES IF CLOUD
COVER TODAY KEEPS TEMPS DOWN.

NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE NO REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER VLY LOCATIONS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1145Z

MARINE LAYER IS 800 FEET DEEP AND STRATUS COVERS MOST OF THE COAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS AS BURN OFF WILL BE VERY HAPHAZARD
DUE TO THE OVERRUNNING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH
THE EVENING. MARINE LAYER WILL FORM IN A RANDOM MANOR TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH BURN OFF POSSIBLE ANYTIME FROM 16Z
TO 20Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FROM 15Z TO
04Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM FROM 15Z TO 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...

27/330 AM

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ZONE PZZ655 TODAY.
THIS THUNDERSTORM THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING
AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN BENIGN COASTAL WATERS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271121
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
351 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTIES
AND MOST OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY TODAY...WITH A LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...A LARGE SWATH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...AND SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED WITHIN THIS BAND. IT WAS
LIFTING NWD...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. ANOTHER SWATH OF GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS LOCATED ACROSS LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND ERN VTU COUNTY...AND ITS
AXIS HAS BEEN WORKING SLOWLY WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS
BEGUN TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS L.A. COUNTY...BUT SO FAR RAIN
GAUGES HAVE NOT REPORTED ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP...LIKELY DUE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AT LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE RADAR ECHO COVERAGE HAS
BEEN INCREASING DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MEASURABLE SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. SOME OF THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY WORK WESTWARD INTO VENTURA COUNTY AS WELL.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REALLY DISRUPTED BY THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND WERE CONFINED MAINLY TO COASTAL AREAS FROM VTU COUNTY
NORTHWARD.

THE SHOWER/TSTM FORECAST FOR TODAY IS RATHER TRICKY. THE
06Z WRF DOES SHOW A DECENT VORT ROTATING NWWD INTO LOS ANGELES
COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOWS MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
MTNS OF SBA...VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. THE GFS
HAS THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH ALL
THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND THE MTNS OF VTU AND SBA
COUNTIES. MAY HAVE TO EXPAND POPS IN TO VTU AND SRN SBA COUNTIES AS
WELL. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF THICK MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVECTION. A LOOK A
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OR
THINNER CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED...AND MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY WILL HAVE TO BE LOWERED AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. IF TSTMS DO
DEVELOP...FAIRLY JUICY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SOME INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STEERING FLOW IS GENERALLY
WEAK...ONLY MARGINALLY SO...SO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
SOMEWHERE ON THE BORDER OF LOW AND MODERATE.

THE GFS INDICATES SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER VORT
SWINGING INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTER THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THEY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
IN SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA THROUGH TUE. IT NOW LOOKS AS THROUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
MTNS OF SBA...VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EVEN WEAKER THAN
IT IS TODAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN SOME...SO THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP SHOULD BE A BIT
LOWER. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES IF CLOUD
COVER TODAY KEEPS TEMPS DOWN.

NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE NO REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER VLY LOCATIONS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MARINE...

27/330 AM

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ZONE PZZ655 TODAY.
THIS THUNDERSTORM THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING
AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN BENIGN COASTAL WATERS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271121
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
351 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTIES
AND MOST OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY TODAY...WITH A LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...A LARGE SWATH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...AND SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED WITHIN THIS BAND. IT WAS
LIFTING NWD...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. ANOTHER SWATH OF GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS LOCATED ACROSS LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND ERN VTU COUNTY...AND ITS
AXIS HAS BEEN WORKING SLOWLY WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS
BEGUN TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS L.A. COUNTY...BUT SO FAR RAIN
GAUGES HAVE NOT REPORTED ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP...LIKELY DUE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AT LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE RADAR ECHO COVERAGE HAS
BEEN INCREASING DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MEASURABLE SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. SOME OF THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY WORK WESTWARD INTO VENTURA COUNTY AS WELL.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REALLY DISRUPTED BY THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND WERE CONFINED MAINLY TO COASTAL AREAS FROM VTU COUNTY
NORTHWARD.

THE SHOWER/TSTM FORECAST FOR TODAY IS RATHER TRICKY. THE
06Z WRF DOES SHOW A DECENT VORT ROTATING NWWD INTO LOS ANGELES
COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOWS MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
MTNS OF SBA...VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. THE GFS
HAS THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH ALL
THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND THE MTNS OF VTU AND SBA
COUNTIES. MAY HAVE TO EXPAND POPS IN TO VTU AND SRN SBA COUNTIES AS
WELL. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF THICK MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVECTION. A LOOK A
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OR
THINNER CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED...AND MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY WILL HAVE TO BE LOWERED AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. IF TSTMS DO
DEVELOP...FAIRLY JUICY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SOME INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STEERING FLOW IS GENERALLY
WEAK...ONLY MARGINALLY SO...SO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
SOMEWHERE ON THE BORDER OF LOW AND MODERATE.

THE GFS INDICATES SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER VORT
SWINGING INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTER THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THEY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
IN SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA THROUGH TUE. IT NOW LOOKS AS THROUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
MTNS OF SBA...VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EVEN WEAKER THAN
IT IS TODAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN SOME...SO THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP SHOULD BE A BIT
LOWER. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES IF CLOUD
COVER TODAY KEEPS TEMPS DOWN.

NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE NO REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER VLY LOCATIONS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MARINE...

27/330 AM

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ZONE PZZ655 TODAY.
THIS THUNDERSTORM THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING
AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN BENIGN COASTAL WATERS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 270529 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1025 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG
MOST COASTAL AREAS AND LOCALLY INTO THE VALLEYS FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS. SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS EVENING...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING TWO DISTINCT
FEATURES TO WATCH CLOSELY. THE FIRST IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
WELL OFFSHORE. IN EVENING UPDATE...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR OUTER
WATERS...BUT THE CHANCES OF ANY STORMS OVER THE LAND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL COAST IS VERY SLIM (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT).

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WELL
TO OUR SOUTH OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND NORTHERN BAJA...EXTENDING INTO
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS HAS ALSO HAD A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS EVENING. THE 00Z NAM AND 18Z GFS MODELS ARE
BOTH SHOWING THIS AREA OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SHIFT
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ON
SUNDAY...NAM MODEL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.6
INCHES MOVING INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY...WHILE GFS EVEN MORE BULLISH
WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES. GFS ALSO MORE BULLISH WITH
STRONGER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE SURGE...HOWEVER 00Z
NAM MODEL ALSO SHOWING THIS FEATURE BUT JUST NOT AS STRONG. AS WAS
INDICATED FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS...BEST HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL
OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY...WHERE THERE WILL BE
A SOMEWHAT BETTER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PER
COORDINATION WITH SAN DIEGO...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF LOS
ANGELES COUNTY AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY...AS
MODELS SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY/CAPE
WITH THIS WEAK WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG MOSTLY CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
ON MONDAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A BIT
EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN DIMINISH AGAIN TOWARD THE END AND OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST.  THERE
IS A HINT OF BETTER COOLING NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING TOO DRAMATIC.

&&

.AVIATION...27/0525Z.
MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 1000 FEET THIS EVENING. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDS AT MOST COASTAL TAF OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MAY DISRUPT COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS L.A. COUNTY  DEEPER
INFLUX OF MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A 10 TO 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY FOR THE
MTNS...ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND COASTAL AND VLY AREAS OF L.A. COUNTY.


KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLAX BUT TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE
IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP. THERE IS A 10
TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
KLAX BETWEEN 19Z SUNDAY AND 02Z MON.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z SUNDAY...WITH JUST A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KBUR BETWEEN 19Z SUN AND 03Z
MON.

&&

.MARINE...26/830 PM.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR ZONES PZZ670/673. THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ZONE PZZ655 ON SUNDAY. THIS
THUNDERSTORM THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING
AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/KJ
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






















000
FXUS66 KLOX 270337
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG
MOST COASTAL AREAS AND LOCALLY INTO THE VALLEYS FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS. SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS EVENING...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING TWO DISTINCT FEATURES
TO WATCH CLOSELY. THE FIRST IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVERING
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WELL OFFSHORE.
IN EVENING UPDATE...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR OUTER WATERS...BUT THE CHANCES OF ANY
STORMS OVER THE LAND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST IS VERY SLIM (LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT).

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WELL
TO OUR SOUTH OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND NORTHERN BAJA...EXTENDING INTO
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS HAS ALSO HAD A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS EVENING. THE 00Z NAM AND 18Z GFS MODELS ARE
BOTH SHOWING THIS AREA OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SHIFT
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY...NAM MODEL
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.6 INCHES MOVING INTO LOS ANGELES
COUNTY...WHILE GFS EVEN MORE BULLISH WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES.
GFS ALSO MORE BULLISH WITH STRONGER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE
SURGE...HOWEVER 00Z NAM MODEL ALSO SHOWING THIS FEATURE BUT JUST NOT AS
STRONG. AS WAS INDICATED FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS...BEST HEATING AND INSTABILITY
WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY...WHERE THERE WILL BE
A SOMEWHAT BETTER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PER COORDINATION WITH
SAN DIEGO...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY/CAPE WITH THIS WEAK WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MOSTLY CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON MONDAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A BIT
EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN DIMINISH AGAIN TOWARD THE END AND OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST.  THERE
IS A HINT OF BETTER COOLING NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING TOO DRAMATIC.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2355Z.
MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 1000 FEET EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CIGS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST COASTAL TAF LOCATIONS TIMING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS FAIRLY LOW. INFLUX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY DISRUPT COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES. DEEPER INFLUX OF MID
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

KLAX...IFR/LIFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLAX BUT TIMING
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. DEEPER INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BRING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE VICINITY
OF KLAX ON SUNDAY.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. CHANCE OF BRIEF
VSBYS 5SM HZ EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE VICINITY OF KBUR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...26/830 PM.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR ZONES PZZ670/673. THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ZONE PZZ655 ON SUNDAY. THIS
THUNDERSTORM THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING
AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/KJ
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



















000
FXUS66 KLOX 270337
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG
MOST COASTAL AREAS AND LOCALLY INTO THE VALLEYS FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS. SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS EVENING...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING TWO DISTINCT FEATURES
TO WATCH CLOSELY. THE FIRST IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVERING
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WELL OFFSHORE.
IN EVENING UPDATE...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR OUTER WATERS...BUT THE CHANCES OF ANY
STORMS OVER THE LAND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST IS VERY SLIM (LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT).

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WELL
TO OUR SOUTH OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND NORTHERN BAJA...EXTENDING INTO
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS HAS ALSO HAD A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS EVENING. THE 00Z NAM AND 18Z GFS MODELS ARE
BOTH SHOWING THIS AREA OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SHIFT
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY...NAM MODEL
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.6 INCHES MOVING INTO LOS ANGELES
COUNTY...WHILE GFS EVEN MORE BULLISH WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES.
GFS ALSO MORE BULLISH WITH STRONGER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE
SURGE...HOWEVER 00Z NAM MODEL ALSO SHOWING THIS FEATURE BUT JUST NOT AS
STRONG. AS WAS INDICATED FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS...BEST HEATING AND INSTABILITY
WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY...WHERE THERE WILL BE
A SOMEWHAT BETTER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PER COORDINATION WITH
SAN DIEGO...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY/CAPE WITH THIS WEAK WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MOSTLY CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON MONDAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A BIT
EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN DIMINISH AGAIN TOWARD THE END AND OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST.  THERE
IS A HINT OF BETTER COOLING NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING TOO DRAMATIC.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2355Z.
MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 1000 FEET EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CIGS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST COASTAL TAF LOCATIONS TIMING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS FAIRLY LOW. INFLUX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY DISRUPT COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES. DEEPER INFLUX OF MID
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

KLAX...IFR/LIFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLAX BUT TIMING
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. DEEPER INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BRING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE VICINITY
OF KLAX ON SUNDAY.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. CHANCE OF BRIEF
VSBYS 5SM HZ EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE VICINITY OF KBUR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...26/830 PM.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR ZONES PZZ670/673. THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ZONE PZZ655 ON SUNDAY. THIS
THUNDERSTORM THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING
AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/KJ
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




















000
FXUS66 KLOX 270005
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
455 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE LOS ANGELES
COUNTY COAST SUNDAY... AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK IN MOST
COASTAL AREAS AND LOCALLY INTO THE VALLEYS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.  THE OVERALL
LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AND ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING PRECIPITATION INTO THE RECORDING
BUCKETS DUE TO THE DRY SURFACE AIRMASS.  HOWEVER THERE HAVE BEEN
INSTANCES OF LIGHTNING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SERVICE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MUCH OF YESTERDAY SO THE KEY CONCERN IS DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES THAT COULD SET A FIRE AMONG OTHER DAMAGING AFFECTS.

NEWLY ADDED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING AND THE EXTENSION INTO MONDAY THE SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.  THE BEST OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO COME ON SUNDAY AND THIS COINCIDES IN THE MORNING WITH A PUSH OF
INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP
THIS AREA AS THE MORE LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTIVE ACTION.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO PAINT THE COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER IN THOSE
LOCATIONS BUT OVERALL REGIONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RECORD TERRITORY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A BIT
EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN DIMINISH AGAIN TOWARD THE END AND OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST.  THERE
IS A HINT OF BETTER COOLING NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING TOO DRAMATIC.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2355Z.
MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 1000 FEET EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CIGS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST COASTAL TAF LOCATIONS TIMING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS FAIRLY LOW. INFLUX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY DISRUPT COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES. DEEPER INFLUX OF MID
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

KLAX...IFR/LIFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLAX BUT TIMING
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. DEEPER INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BRING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE VICINITY
OF KLAX ON SUNDAY.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. CHANCE OF BRIEF
VSBYS 5SM HZ EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE VICINITY OF KBUR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION WHILE A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
BIGHT PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF SOUTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT MUGU
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH
APPROXIMATELY 10-15KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL AND SANTA ROSA ISLANDS SUNDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT. OTHERWISE
IT IS VERY LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL NOT EXIST
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A SMALL SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WILL PERSIST AS WELL AS A SHORT PERIOD SWELL ORIGINATING
IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE MENDOCINO. TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF 15/110 TODAY AND THEN MOVE
NORTHWEST 21/121 THROUGH TUESDAY. SWELLS ORIGINATING FROM HERNAN ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS.../KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

















000
FXUS66 KLOX 270005
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
455 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE LOS ANGELES
COUNTY COAST SUNDAY... AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK IN MOST
COASTAL AREAS AND LOCALLY INTO THE VALLEYS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.  THE OVERALL
LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AND ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING PRECIPITATION INTO THE RECORDING
BUCKETS DUE TO THE DRY SURFACE AIRMASS.  HOWEVER THERE HAVE BEEN
INSTANCES OF LIGHTNING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SERVICE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MUCH OF YESTERDAY SO THE KEY CONCERN IS DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES THAT COULD SET A FIRE AMONG OTHER DAMAGING AFFECTS.

NEWLY ADDED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING AND THE EXTENSION INTO MONDAY THE SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.  THE BEST OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO COME ON SUNDAY AND THIS COINCIDES IN THE MORNING WITH A PUSH OF
INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP
THIS AREA AS THE MORE LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTIVE ACTION.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO PAINT THE COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER IN THOSE
LOCATIONS BUT OVERALL REGIONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RECORD TERRITORY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A BIT
EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN DIMINISH AGAIN TOWARD THE END AND OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST.  THERE
IS A HINT OF BETTER COOLING NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING TOO DRAMATIC.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2355Z.
MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 1000 FEET EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CIGS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST COASTAL TAF LOCATIONS TIMING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS FAIRLY LOW. INFLUX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY DISRUPT COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES. DEEPER INFLUX OF MID
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

KLAX...IFR/LIFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLAX BUT TIMING
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. DEEPER INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BRING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE VICINITY
OF KLAX ON SUNDAY.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. CHANCE OF BRIEF
VSBYS 5SM HZ EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE VICINITY OF KBUR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION WHILE A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
BIGHT PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF SOUTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT MUGU
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH
APPROXIMATELY 10-15KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL AND SANTA ROSA ISLANDS SUNDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT. OTHERWISE
IT IS VERY LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL NOT EXIST
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A SMALL SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WILL PERSIST AS WELL AS A SHORT PERIOD SWELL ORIGINATING
IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE MENDOCINO. TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF 15/110 TODAY AND THEN MOVE
NORTHWEST 21/121 THROUGH TUESDAY. SWELLS ORIGINATING FROM HERNAN ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS.../KJ

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