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000
FXUS66 KLOX 031833
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1130 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS. FOR NEXT WEEK
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...MARINE LYR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THIS
MORNING, NOW CLOSE TO 1500` ACCORDING TO THE LAX PROFILER. WITH
GRADIENTS CONTINUING TO TREND ONSHORE LOOK FOR A LATE BEACH
CLEARING, AND POSSIBLY SOME BEACHES STAYING CLOUDY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW 1500` ELEVATION TODAY WILL BE
COOLER, WITH THE BIGGEST DIPS OCCURING IN THE VALLEYS WHERE HIGHS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THU.

NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT THERE`S ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND 850MB TO GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CU OVER THE MTNS WITH
ADEQUATE SURFACE HEATING.

MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER TO
SOUTHWEST BU SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WEAKENS AND MOVES FURTHER AWAY. MARINE
LYR WILL DEEPEN A LITTLE EACH DAY, EASILY REACHING THE COASTAL
VALLEYS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS BUT
LINGER AT MANY BEACHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW
OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...MAIN CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE AREA DRY. STRATUS WILL
LIKELY EBB AND FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO MOST VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT/MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND...BUT SHOULD HOVER
NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. JUST TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER FOR THE DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1800Z.

AT 1550Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 1600 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2500 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEG C.

FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. AS EXPECTED...THE MARINE
CLOUDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND WITH FURTHER MARINE
LAYER DEEPENING TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RECLAIM MORE TERRITORY BY
SPREADING INTO THE VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS WHILE IFR CONDITIONS ARE THE LIKELY
RESULT IN THE VALLEYS. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WILL INSURE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF TOTAL CLEARING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THE MARINE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATER THAN FORECAST.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...03/950 AM...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADVISORIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 031833
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1130 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS. FOR NEXT WEEK
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...MARINE LYR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THIS
MORNING, NOW CLOSE TO 1500` ACCORDING TO THE LAX PROFILER. WITH
GRADIENTS CONTINUING TO TREND ONSHORE LOOK FOR A LATE BEACH
CLEARING, AND POSSIBLY SOME BEACHES STAYING CLOUDY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW 1500` ELEVATION TODAY WILL BE
COOLER, WITH THE BIGGEST DIPS OCCURING IN THE VALLEYS WHERE HIGHS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THU.

NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT THERE`S ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND 850MB TO GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CU OVER THE MTNS WITH
ADEQUATE SURFACE HEATING.

MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER TO
SOUTHWEST BU SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WEAKENS AND MOVES FURTHER AWAY. MARINE
LYR WILL DEEPEN A LITTLE EACH DAY, EASILY REACHING THE COASTAL
VALLEYS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS BUT
LINGER AT MANY BEACHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW
OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...MAIN CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE AREA DRY. STRATUS WILL
LIKELY EBB AND FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO MOST VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT/MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND...BUT SHOULD HOVER
NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. JUST TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER FOR THE DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1800Z.

AT 1550Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 1600 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2500 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEG C.

FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. AS EXPECTED...THE MARINE
CLOUDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND WITH FURTHER MARINE
LAYER DEEPENING TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RECLAIM MORE TERRITORY BY
SPREADING INTO THE VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS WHILE IFR CONDITIONS ARE THE LIKELY
RESULT IN THE VALLEYS. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WILL INSURE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF TOTAL CLEARING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THE MARINE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATER THAN FORECAST.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...03/950 AM...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADVISORIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 031650
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS. FOR NEXT WEEK
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...MARINE LYR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THIS
MORNING, NOW CLOSE TO 1500` ACCORDING TO THE LAX PROFILER. WITH
GRADIENTS CONTINUING TO TREND ONSHORE LOOK FOR A LATE BEACH
CLEARING, AND POSSIBLY SOME BEACHES STAYING CLOUDY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW 1500` ELEVATION TODAY WILL BE
COOLER, WITH THE BIGGEST DIPS OCCURING IN THE VALLEYS WHERE HIGHS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THU.

NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT THERE`S ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND 850MB TO GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CU OVER THE MTNS WITH
ADEQUATE SURFACE HEATING.

MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER TO
SOUTHWEST BU SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WEAKENS AND MOVES FURTHER AWAY. MARINE
LYR WILL DEEPEN A LITTLE EACH DAY, EASILY REACHING THE COASTAL
VALLEYS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS BUT
LINGER AT MANY BEACHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW
OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...MAIN CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE AREA DRY. STRATUS WILL
LIKELY EBB AND FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO MOST VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT/MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND...BUT SHOULD HOVER
NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. JUST TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER FOR THE DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1145Z

AT 1124Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS 970 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE MARINE INVERSION WAS AT 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 26C.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS NEAR THE COAST WITH LIFR TO IFR CONDS THIS
MORNING. STRATUS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN BY DAYBREAK...AND MAY SLIP INTO THE SAN GABRIEL AND SANTA YNEZ
VALLEYS. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BY MID OR LATE MORNING...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE BEACHES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
WITH IFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
EVENING...REACHING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 17Z AND NOT
IMPROVE TO MVFR. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
OF LIFR TO IFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...03/950 AM...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADVISORIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 031650
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS. FOR NEXT WEEK
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...MARINE LYR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THIS
MORNING, NOW CLOSE TO 1500` ACCORDING TO THE LAX PROFILER. WITH
GRADIENTS CONTINUING TO TREND ONSHORE LOOK FOR A LATE BEACH
CLEARING, AND POSSIBLY SOME BEACHES STAYING CLOUDY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW 1500` ELEVATION TODAY WILL BE
COOLER, WITH THE BIGGEST DIPS OCCURING IN THE VALLEYS WHERE HIGHS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THU.

NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT THERE`S ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND 850MB TO GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CU OVER THE MTNS WITH
ADEQUATE SURFACE HEATING.

MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER TO
SOUTHWEST BU SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WEAKENS AND MOVES FURTHER AWAY. MARINE
LYR WILL DEEPEN A LITTLE EACH DAY, EASILY REACHING THE COASTAL
VALLEYS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS BUT
LINGER AT MANY BEACHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW
OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...MAIN CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE AREA DRY. STRATUS WILL
LIKELY EBB AND FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO MOST VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT/MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND...BUT SHOULD HOVER
NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. JUST TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER FOR THE DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1145Z

AT 1124Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS 970 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE MARINE INVERSION WAS AT 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 26C.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS NEAR THE COAST WITH LIFR TO IFR CONDS THIS
MORNING. STRATUS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN BY DAYBREAK...AND MAY SLIP INTO THE SAN GABRIEL AND SANTA YNEZ
VALLEYS. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BY MID OR LATE MORNING...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE BEACHES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
WITH IFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
EVENING...REACHING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 17Z AND NOT
IMPROVE TO MVFR. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
OF LIFR TO IFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...03/950 AM...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADVISORIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 031650
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS. FOR NEXT WEEK
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...MARINE LYR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THIS
MORNING, NOW CLOSE TO 1500` ACCORDING TO THE LAX PROFILER. WITH
GRADIENTS CONTINUING TO TREND ONSHORE LOOK FOR A LATE BEACH
CLEARING, AND POSSIBLY SOME BEACHES STAYING CLOUDY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW 1500` ELEVATION TODAY WILL BE
COOLER, WITH THE BIGGEST DIPS OCCURING IN THE VALLEYS WHERE HIGHS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THU.

NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT THERE`S ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND 850MB TO GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CU OVER THE MTNS WITH
ADEQUATE SURFACE HEATING.

MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER TO
SOUTHWEST BU SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WEAKENS AND MOVES FURTHER AWAY. MARINE
LYR WILL DEEPEN A LITTLE EACH DAY, EASILY REACHING THE COASTAL
VALLEYS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS BUT
LINGER AT MANY BEACHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW
OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...MAIN CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE AREA DRY. STRATUS WILL
LIKELY EBB AND FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO MOST VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT/MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND...BUT SHOULD HOVER
NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. JUST TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER FOR THE DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1145Z

AT 1124Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS 970 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE MARINE INVERSION WAS AT 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 26C.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS NEAR THE COAST WITH LIFR TO IFR CONDS THIS
MORNING. STRATUS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN BY DAYBREAK...AND MAY SLIP INTO THE SAN GABRIEL AND SANTA YNEZ
VALLEYS. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BY MID OR LATE MORNING...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE BEACHES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
WITH IFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
EVENING...REACHING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 17Z AND NOT
IMPROVE TO MVFR. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
OF LIFR TO IFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...03/950 AM...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADVISORIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 031159 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS. FOR NEXT WEEK
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW WILL SPIN ABOUT
600-700 MILES WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR THE
SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...RATHER TYPICAL AND BENIGN FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP
ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...FOCUS WILL BE
ON TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MARINE LAYER STRATUS.

LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION BASED AROUND 1000
FEET THIS MORNING...WITH STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH INLAND PUSH THIS MORNING...SO STRATUS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AND INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE NICELY BY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTERNOON SKIES FOR ALL AREAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY...MARINE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN WITH
STRATUS PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL EXPECT STRATUS TO DISSIPATE...WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND FROM TODAY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...EXPECT A NEARLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH
RESPECT TO THE INLAND EXTENT OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR FIREWORKS SHOWS SATURDAY
EVENING...INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR...BUT LOCALES NEAR THE
BEACHES HAVE A CHANCE TO BE CLOUDY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW
OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...MAIN CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE AREA DRY. STRATUS WILL
LIKELY EBB AND FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO MOST VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT/MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND...BUT SHOULD HOVER
NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. JUST TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER FOR THE DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1145Z

AT 1124Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS 970 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE MARINE INVERSION WAS AT 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 26C.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS NEAR THE COAST WITH LIFR TO IFR CONDS THIS
MORNING. STRATUS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN BY DAYBREAK...AND MAY SLIP INTO THE SAN GABRIEL AND SANTA YNEZ
VALLEYS. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BY MID OR LATE MORNING...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE BEACHES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
WITH IFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
EVENING...REACHING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 17Z AND NOT
IMPROVE TO MVFR. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
OF LIFR TO IFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...03/330 AM...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADVISORIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS.


EACH OF THE

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 031159 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS. FOR NEXT WEEK
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW WILL SPIN ABOUT
600-700 MILES WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR THE
SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...RATHER TYPICAL AND BENIGN FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP
ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...FOCUS WILL BE
ON TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MARINE LAYER STRATUS.

LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION BASED AROUND 1000
FEET THIS MORNING...WITH STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH INLAND PUSH THIS MORNING...SO STRATUS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AND INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE NICELY BY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTERNOON SKIES FOR ALL AREAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY...MARINE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN WITH
STRATUS PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL EXPECT STRATUS TO DISSIPATE...WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND FROM TODAY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...EXPECT A NEARLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH
RESPECT TO THE INLAND EXTENT OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR FIREWORKS SHOWS SATURDAY
EVENING...INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR...BUT LOCALES NEAR THE
BEACHES HAVE A CHANCE TO BE CLOUDY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW
OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...MAIN CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE AREA DRY. STRATUS WILL
LIKELY EBB AND FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO MOST VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT/MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND...BUT SHOULD HOVER
NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. JUST TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER FOR THE DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1145Z

AT 1124Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS 970 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE MARINE INVERSION WAS AT 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 26C.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS NEAR THE COAST WITH LIFR TO IFR CONDS THIS
MORNING. STRATUS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN BY DAYBREAK...AND MAY SLIP INTO THE SAN GABRIEL AND SANTA YNEZ
VALLEYS. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BY MID OR LATE MORNING...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE BEACHES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
WITH IFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
EVENING...REACHING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 17Z AND NOT
IMPROVE TO MVFR. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
OF LIFR TO IFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...03/330 AM...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADVISORIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS.


EACH OF THE

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 031159 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS. FOR NEXT WEEK
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW WILL SPIN ABOUT
600-700 MILES WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR THE
SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...RATHER TYPICAL AND BENIGN FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP
ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...FOCUS WILL BE
ON TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MARINE LAYER STRATUS.

LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION BASED AROUND 1000
FEET THIS MORNING...WITH STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH INLAND PUSH THIS MORNING...SO STRATUS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AND INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE NICELY BY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTERNOON SKIES FOR ALL AREAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY...MARINE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN WITH
STRATUS PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL EXPECT STRATUS TO DISSIPATE...WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND FROM TODAY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...EXPECT A NEARLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH
RESPECT TO THE INLAND EXTENT OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR FIREWORKS SHOWS SATURDAY
EVENING...INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR...BUT LOCALES NEAR THE
BEACHES HAVE A CHANCE TO BE CLOUDY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW
OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...MAIN CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE AREA DRY. STRATUS WILL
LIKELY EBB AND FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO MOST VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT/MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND...BUT SHOULD HOVER
NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. JUST TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER FOR THE DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1145Z

AT 1124Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS 970 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE MARINE INVERSION WAS AT 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 26C.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS NEAR THE COAST WITH LIFR TO IFR CONDS THIS
MORNING. STRATUS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN BY DAYBREAK...AND MAY SLIP INTO THE SAN GABRIEL AND SANTA YNEZ
VALLEYS. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BY MID OR LATE MORNING...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE BEACHES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
WITH IFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
EVENING...REACHING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 17Z AND NOT
IMPROVE TO MVFR. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
OF LIFR TO IFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...03/330 AM...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADVISORIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS.


EACH OF THE

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 031159 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS. FOR NEXT WEEK
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW WILL SPIN ABOUT
600-700 MILES WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR THE
SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...RATHER TYPICAL AND BENIGN FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP
ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...FOCUS WILL BE
ON TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MARINE LAYER STRATUS.

LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION BASED AROUND 1000
FEET THIS MORNING...WITH STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH INLAND PUSH THIS MORNING...SO STRATUS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AND INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE NICELY BY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTERNOON SKIES FOR ALL AREAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY...MARINE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN WITH
STRATUS PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL EXPECT STRATUS TO DISSIPATE...WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND FROM TODAY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...EXPECT A NEARLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH
RESPECT TO THE INLAND EXTENT OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR FIREWORKS SHOWS SATURDAY
EVENING...INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR...BUT LOCALES NEAR THE
BEACHES HAVE A CHANCE TO BE CLOUDY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW
OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...MAIN CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE AREA DRY. STRATUS WILL
LIKELY EBB AND FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO MOST VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT/MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND...BUT SHOULD HOVER
NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. JUST TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER FOR THE DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1145Z

AT 1124Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS 970 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE MARINE INVERSION WAS AT 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 26C.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS NEAR THE COAST WITH LIFR TO IFR CONDS THIS
MORNING. STRATUS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN BY DAYBREAK...AND MAY SLIP INTO THE SAN GABRIEL AND SANTA YNEZ
VALLEYS. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BY MID OR LATE MORNING...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE BEACHES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
WITH IFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
EVENING...REACHING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 17Z AND NOT
IMPROVE TO MVFR. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
OF LIFR TO IFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...03/330 AM...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADVISORIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS.


EACH OF THE

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 030857
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS. FOR NEXT WEEK
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW WILL SPIN ABOUT
600-700 MILES WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR THE
SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...RATHER TYPICAL AND BENIGN FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP
ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...FOCUS WILL BE
ON TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MARINE LAYER STRATUS.

LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION BASED AROUND 1000
FEET THIS MORNING...WITH STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH INLAND PUSH THIS MORNING...SO STRATUS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AND INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE NICELY BY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTERNOON SKIES FOR ALL AREAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY...MARINE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN WITH
STRATUS PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL EXPECT STRATUS TO DISSIPATE...WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND FROM TODAY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...EXPECT A NEARLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH
RESPECT TO THE INLAND EXTENT OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR FIREWORKS SHOWS SATURDAY
EVENING...INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR...BUT LOCALES NEAR THE
BEACHES HAVE A CHANCE TO BE CLOUDY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW
OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...MAIN CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE AREA DRY. STRATUS WILL
LIKELY EBB AND FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO MOST VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT/MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND...BUT SHOULD HOVER
NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. JUST TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER FOR THE DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1100Z...

WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...03/230 AM...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 030857
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS. FOR NEXT WEEK
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW WILL SPIN ABOUT
600-700 MILES WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR THE
SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...RATHER TYPICAL AND BENIGN FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP
ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...FOCUS WILL BE
ON TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MARINE LAYER STRATUS.

LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION BASED AROUND 1000
FEET THIS MORNING...WITH STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH INLAND PUSH THIS MORNING...SO STRATUS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AND INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE NICELY BY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTERNOON SKIES FOR ALL AREAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY...MARINE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN WITH
STRATUS PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL EXPECT STRATUS TO DISSIPATE...WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND FROM TODAY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...EXPECT A NEARLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH
RESPECT TO THE INLAND EXTENT OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR FIREWORKS SHOWS SATURDAY
EVENING...INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR...BUT LOCALES NEAR THE
BEACHES HAVE A CHANCE TO BE CLOUDY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW
OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...MAIN CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE AREA DRY. STRATUS WILL
LIKELY EBB AND FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO MOST VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT/MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND...BUT SHOULD HOVER
NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. JUST TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER FOR THE DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1100Z...

WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...03/230 AM...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 030857
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS. FOR NEXT WEEK
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW WILL SPIN ABOUT
600-700 MILES WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR THE
SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...RATHER TYPICAL AND BENIGN FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP
ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...FOCUS WILL BE
ON TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MARINE LAYER STRATUS.

LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION BASED AROUND 1000
FEET THIS MORNING...WITH STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH INLAND PUSH THIS MORNING...SO STRATUS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AND INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE NICELY BY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTERNOON SKIES FOR ALL AREAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY...MARINE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN WITH
STRATUS PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL EXPECT STRATUS TO DISSIPATE...WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND FROM TODAY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...EXPECT A NEARLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH
RESPECT TO THE INLAND EXTENT OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR FIREWORKS SHOWS SATURDAY
EVENING...INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR...BUT LOCALES NEAR THE
BEACHES HAVE A CHANCE TO BE CLOUDY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW
OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...MAIN CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE AREA DRY. STRATUS WILL
LIKELY EBB AND FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO MOST VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT/MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND...BUT SHOULD HOVER
NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. JUST TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER FOR THE DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1100Z...

WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...03/230 AM...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 030324
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
820 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ONSHORE FLOW AND A SLIGHT COOLING TREND ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
THE NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER...AND NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS (+6.7 MB LAX-
DAG AT 02Z) HAS HELPED MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO SURGE INTO MANY
COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 900 FT DEEP
AT LAX EARLY THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD INCREASE TO PERHAPS 1200 FT
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND ALONG ALL COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INLAND TO SOME OF THE ADJACENT VLYS. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
GUSTY S TO W WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING MAINLY IN
THE FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THRU
FRI...WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE SRN CA COAST DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO ON SAT...WHILE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NW OVER THE ERN PAC. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THRU SUN...WITH SRN CA
UNDER A BROAD MAINLY SW FLOW ALOFT.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRI THRU SUN.
THE MARINE LAYER PATTERN WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS
THRU THE PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE SALINAS
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE NIGHT TO MID MORNING HOURS DURING THE
WEEKEND. RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON
CU BUILDUPS OVER THE MTNS FRI AND SAT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SWRN CA THRU THE WEEKEND. STRONG ONSHORE
GRADIENTS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
S TO W WINDS MOSTLY FOR THE INTERIOR VLYS...FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND
ANTELOPE VLY THRU THE PERIOD.

TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERALL...WITH
HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THRU
SUN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE CALIFORNIA WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK, MEANING A RETURN TO EARLY SUMMER WEATHER. MARINE
LYR WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE
COAST EACH DAY. TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NO THREAT OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...03/0010Z...

AT 2255Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 800 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2300 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEG C.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
AIRFIELDS AND KBUR TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 03Z AT KOXR TO 13Z AT
KBUR. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU FRI. GUSTY SW WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY FRI AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY
04Z...BUT THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE IFR CIGS BY 02Z. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR AROUND 20Z FRI...THEN REDEVELOP WITH MVFR
CIGS AROUND 04Z FRI EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 12Z THEN CLEAR
TO VFR AROUND 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU
FRI AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...02/800 PM...

THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT
PERHAPS LOCALLY AROUND POINT CONCEPTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO THREATS ARE FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHER THAN THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 030324
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
820 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ONSHORE FLOW AND A SLIGHT COOLING TREND ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
THE NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER...AND NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS (+6.7 MB LAX-
DAG AT 02Z) HAS HELPED MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO SURGE INTO MANY
COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 900 FT DEEP
AT LAX EARLY THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD INCREASE TO PERHAPS 1200 FT
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND ALONG ALL COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INLAND TO SOME OF THE ADJACENT VLYS. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
GUSTY S TO W WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING MAINLY IN
THE FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THRU
FRI...WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE SRN CA COAST DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO ON SAT...WHILE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NW OVER THE ERN PAC. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THRU SUN...WITH SRN CA
UNDER A BROAD MAINLY SW FLOW ALOFT.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRI THRU SUN.
THE MARINE LAYER PATTERN WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS
THRU THE PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE SALINAS
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE NIGHT TO MID MORNING HOURS DURING THE
WEEKEND. RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON
CU BUILDUPS OVER THE MTNS FRI AND SAT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SWRN CA THRU THE WEEKEND. STRONG ONSHORE
GRADIENTS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
S TO W WINDS MOSTLY FOR THE INTERIOR VLYS...FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND
ANTELOPE VLY THRU THE PERIOD.

TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERALL...WITH
HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THRU
SUN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE CALIFORNIA WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK, MEANING A RETURN TO EARLY SUMMER WEATHER. MARINE
LYR WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE
COAST EACH DAY. TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NO THREAT OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...03/0010Z...

AT 2255Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 800 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2300 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEG C.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
AIRFIELDS AND KBUR TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 03Z AT KOXR TO 13Z AT
KBUR. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU FRI. GUSTY SW WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY FRI AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY
04Z...BUT THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE IFR CIGS BY 02Z. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR AROUND 20Z FRI...THEN REDEVELOP WITH MVFR
CIGS AROUND 04Z FRI EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 12Z THEN CLEAR
TO VFR AROUND 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU
FRI AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...02/800 PM...

THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT
PERHAPS LOCALLY AROUND POINT CONCEPTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO THREATS ARE FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHER THAN THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 030012 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
515 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COAST AND SOME VALLEY
AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, EVEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED, LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SO FAR NOT EVEN A HINT OF CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. UNLESS DEVELOPMENT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT HOUR WILL LIKELY REMOVE TSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WELL SINCE CONDITIONS DON`T LOOK ANY
MORE FAVORABLE THEN.

LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH A
ROBUST 5 MB ONSHORE TREND. COULD SEE CLOUDS INTO THE LOWER VALLEY
LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS
AS WELL WITH VALLEYS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND COASTAL
AREAS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROBABLY A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
MTN PEAKS EACH DAY BUT OTHERWISE DRY. MIGHT SEE A VERY SLIGHT WARMUP
SUNDAY DUE TO A BIT WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE CALIFORNIA WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK, MEANING A RETURN TO EARLY SUMMER WEATHER. MARINE
LYR WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE
COAST EACH DAY. TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NO THREAT OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...03/0010Z...

AT 2255Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 800 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2300 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEG C.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
AIRFIELDS AND KBUR TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 03Z AT KOXR TO 13Z AT
KBUR. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU FRI. GUSTY SW WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY FRI AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY
04Z...BUT THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE IFR CIGS BY 02Z. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR AROUND 20Z FRI...THEN REDEVELOP WITH MVFR
CIGS AROUND 04Z FRI EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 12Z THEN CLEAR
TO VFR AROUND 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU
FRI AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 PM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO THREATS ARE FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHER THAN THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS AND A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS AROUND POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 030012 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
515 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COAST AND SOME VALLEY
AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, EVEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED, LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SO FAR NOT EVEN A HINT OF CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. UNLESS DEVELOPMENT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT HOUR WILL LIKELY REMOVE TSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WELL SINCE CONDITIONS DON`T LOOK ANY
MORE FAVORABLE THEN.

LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH A
ROBUST 5 MB ONSHORE TREND. COULD SEE CLOUDS INTO THE LOWER VALLEY
LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS
AS WELL WITH VALLEYS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND COASTAL
AREAS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROBABLY A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
MTN PEAKS EACH DAY BUT OTHERWISE DRY. MIGHT SEE A VERY SLIGHT WARMUP
SUNDAY DUE TO A BIT WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE CALIFORNIA WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK, MEANING A RETURN TO EARLY SUMMER WEATHER. MARINE
LYR WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE
COAST EACH DAY. TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NO THREAT OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...03/0010Z...

AT 2255Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 800 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2300 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEG C.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
AIRFIELDS AND KBUR TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 03Z AT KOXR TO 13Z AT
KBUR. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU FRI. GUSTY SW WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY FRI AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY
04Z...BUT THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE IFR CIGS BY 02Z. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR AROUND 20Z FRI...THEN REDEVELOP WITH MVFR
CIGS AROUND 04Z FRI EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 12Z THEN CLEAR
TO VFR AROUND 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU
FRI AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 PM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO THREATS ARE FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHER THAN THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS AND A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS AROUND POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 030012 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
515 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COAST AND SOME VALLEY
AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, EVEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED, LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SO FAR NOT EVEN A HINT OF CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. UNLESS DEVELOPMENT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT HOUR WILL LIKELY REMOVE TSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WELL SINCE CONDITIONS DON`T LOOK ANY
MORE FAVORABLE THEN.

LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH A
ROBUST 5 MB ONSHORE TREND. COULD SEE CLOUDS INTO THE LOWER VALLEY
LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS
AS WELL WITH VALLEYS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND COASTAL
AREAS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROBABLY A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
MTN PEAKS EACH DAY BUT OTHERWISE DRY. MIGHT SEE A VERY SLIGHT WARMUP
SUNDAY DUE TO A BIT WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE CALIFORNIA WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK, MEANING A RETURN TO EARLY SUMMER WEATHER. MARINE
LYR WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE
COAST EACH DAY. TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NO THREAT OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...03/0010Z...

AT 2255Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 800 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2300 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEG C.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
AIRFIELDS AND KBUR TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 03Z AT KOXR TO 13Z AT
KBUR. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU FRI. GUSTY SW WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY FRI AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY
04Z...BUT THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE IFR CIGS BY 02Z. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR AROUND 20Z FRI...THEN REDEVELOP WITH MVFR
CIGS AROUND 04Z FRI EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 12Z THEN CLEAR
TO VFR AROUND 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU
FRI AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 PM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO THREATS ARE FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHER THAN THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS AND A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS AROUND POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 030012 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
515 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COAST AND SOME VALLEY
AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, EVEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED, LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SO FAR NOT EVEN A HINT OF CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. UNLESS DEVELOPMENT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT HOUR WILL LIKELY REMOVE TSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WELL SINCE CONDITIONS DON`T LOOK ANY
MORE FAVORABLE THEN.

LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH A
ROBUST 5 MB ONSHORE TREND. COULD SEE CLOUDS INTO THE LOWER VALLEY
LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS
AS WELL WITH VALLEYS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND COASTAL
AREAS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROBABLY A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
MTN PEAKS EACH DAY BUT OTHERWISE DRY. MIGHT SEE A VERY SLIGHT WARMUP
SUNDAY DUE TO A BIT WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE CALIFORNIA WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK, MEANING A RETURN TO EARLY SUMMER WEATHER. MARINE
LYR WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE
COAST EACH DAY. TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NO THREAT OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...03/0010Z...

AT 2255Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 800 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2300 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEG C.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
AIRFIELDS AND KBUR TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 03Z AT KOXR TO 13Z AT
KBUR. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU FRI. GUSTY SW WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY FRI AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY
04Z...BUT THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE IFR CIGS BY 02Z. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR AROUND 20Z FRI...THEN REDEVELOP WITH MVFR
CIGS AROUND 04Z FRI EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 12Z THEN CLEAR
TO VFR AROUND 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU
FRI AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 PM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO THREATS ARE FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHER THAN THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS AND A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS AROUND POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 022101
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COAST AND SOME VALLEY
AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, EVEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED, LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SO FAR NOT EVEN A HINT OF CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. UNLESS DEVELOPMENT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT HOUR WILL LIKELY REMOVE TSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WELL SINCE CONDITIONS DON`T LOOK ANY
MORE FAVORABLE THEN.

LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH A
ROBUST 5 MB ONSHORE TREND. COULD SEE CLOUDS INTO THE LOWER VALLEY
LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS
AS WELL WITH VALLEYS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND COASTAL
AREAS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROBABLY A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
MTN PEAKS EACH DAY BUT OTHERWISE DRY. MIGHT SEE A VERY SLIGHT WARMUP
SUNDAY DUE TO A BIT WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE CALIFORNIA WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK, MEANING A RETURN TO EARLY SUMMER WEATHER. MARINE
LYR WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE
COAST EACH DAY. TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NO THREAT OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1800Z.

AT 1813Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 500 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. THE TRANSITION FROM MOIST
MONSOONAL FLOW TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL BEGIN IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECTING A RETURN OF MARINE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH MOST
COASTAL SECTIONS SEEING THE CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. THE VALLEY
SECTIONS SHOULD STAY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS SNEAKING INTO KBUR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE MEAN TIME THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS WITH IFR CONDITIONS SNEAKING INTO THE
AIRFIELD BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 PM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO THREATS ARE FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHER THAN THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS AND A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS AROUND POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 022101
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COAST AND SOME VALLEY
AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, EVEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED, LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SO FAR NOT EVEN A HINT OF CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. UNLESS DEVELOPMENT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT HOUR WILL LIKELY REMOVE TSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WELL SINCE CONDITIONS DON`T LOOK ANY
MORE FAVORABLE THEN.

LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH A
ROBUST 5 MB ONSHORE TREND. COULD SEE CLOUDS INTO THE LOWER VALLEY
LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS
AS WELL WITH VALLEYS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND COASTAL
AREAS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROBABLY A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
MTN PEAKS EACH DAY BUT OTHERWISE DRY. MIGHT SEE A VERY SLIGHT WARMUP
SUNDAY DUE TO A BIT WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE CALIFORNIA WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK, MEANING A RETURN TO EARLY SUMMER WEATHER. MARINE
LYR WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE
COAST EACH DAY. TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NO THREAT OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1800Z.

AT 1813Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 500 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. THE TRANSITION FROM MOIST
MONSOONAL FLOW TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL BEGIN IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECTING A RETURN OF MARINE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH MOST
COASTAL SECTIONS SEEING THE CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. THE VALLEY
SECTIONS SHOULD STAY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS SNEAKING INTO KBUR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE MEAN TIME THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS WITH IFR CONDITIONS SNEAKING INTO THE
AIRFIELD BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 PM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO THREATS ARE FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHER THAN THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS AND A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS AROUND POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 022022
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COAST AND SOME VALLEY
AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, EVEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED, LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SO FAR NOT EVEN A HINT OF CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. UNLESS DEVELOPMENT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT HOUR WILL LIKELY REMOVE TSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WELL SINCE CONDITIONS DON`T LOOK ANY
MORE FAVORABLE THEN.

LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH A
ROBUST 5 MB ONSHORE TREND. COULD SEE CLOUDS INTO THE LOWER VALLEY
LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS
AS WELL WITH VALLEYS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND COASTAL
AREAS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROBABLY A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
MTN PEAKS EACH DAY BUT OTHERWISE DRY. MIGHT SEE A VERY SLIGHT WARMUP
SUNDAY DUE TO A BIT WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE CALIFORNIA WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK, MEANING A RETURN TO EARLY SUMMER WEATHER. MARINE
LYR WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE
COAST EACH DAY. TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NO THREAT OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1800Z.

AT 1813Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 500 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. THE TRANSITION FROM MOIST
MONSOONAL FLOW TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL BEGIN IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECTING A RETURN OF MARINE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH MOST
COASTAL SECTIONS SEEING THE CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. THE VALLEY
SECTIONS SHOULD STAY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS SNEAKING INTO KBUR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE MEAN TIME THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS WITH IFR CONDITIONS SNEAKING INTO THE
AIRFIELD BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 022022
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COAST AND SOME VALLEY
AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, EVEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED, LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SO FAR NOT EVEN A HINT OF CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. UNLESS DEVELOPMENT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT HOUR WILL LIKELY REMOVE TSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WELL SINCE CONDITIONS DON`T LOOK ANY
MORE FAVORABLE THEN.

LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH A
ROBUST 5 MB ONSHORE TREND. COULD SEE CLOUDS INTO THE LOWER VALLEY
LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS
AS WELL WITH VALLEYS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND COASTAL
AREAS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROBABLY A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
MTN PEAKS EACH DAY BUT OTHERWISE DRY. MIGHT SEE A VERY SLIGHT WARMUP
SUNDAY DUE TO A BIT WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE CALIFORNIA WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK, MEANING A RETURN TO EARLY SUMMER WEATHER. MARINE
LYR WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE
COAST EACH DAY. TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NO THREAT OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1800Z.

AT 1813Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 500 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. THE TRANSITION FROM MOIST
MONSOONAL FLOW TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL BEGIN IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECTING A RETURN OF MARINE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH MOST
COASTAL SECTIONS SEEING THE CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. THE VALLEY
SECTIONS SHOULD STAY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS SNEAKING INTO KBUR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE MEAN TIME THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS WITH IFR CONDITIONS SNEAKING INTO THE
AIRFIELD BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 022022
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COAST AND SOME VALLEY
AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, EVEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED, LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SO FAR NOT EVEN A HINT OF CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. UNLESS DEVELOPMENT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT HOUR WILL LIKELY REMOVE TSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WELL SINCE CONDITIONS DON`T LOOK ANY
MORE FAVORABLE THEN.

LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH A
ROBUST 5 MB ONSHORE TREND. COULD SEE CLOUDS INTO THE LOWER VALLEY
LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS
AS WELL WITH VALLEYS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND COASTAL
AREAS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROBABLY A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
MTN PEAKS EACH DAY BUT OTHERWISE DRY. MIGHT SEE A VERY SLIGHT WARMUP
SUNDAY DUE TO A BIT WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE CALIFORNIA WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK, MEANING A RETURN TO EARLY SUMMER WEATHER. MARINE
LYR WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE
COAST EACH DAY. TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NO THREAT OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1800Z.

AT 1813Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 500 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. THE TRANSITION FROM MOIST
MONSOONAL FLOW TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL BEGIN IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECTING A RETURN OF MARINE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH MOST
COASTAL SECTIONS SEEING THE CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. THE VALLEY
SECTIONS SHOULD STAY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS SNEAKING INTO KBUR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE MEAN TIME THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS WITH IFR CONDITIONS SNEAKING INTO THE
AIRFIELD BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 021901
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1155 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THEN JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...ONE LAST MONSOON PUSH THIS MORNING BEFORE
THE MOISTURE STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF INSTABILITY SO ANYTHING WE`LL GET THIS MORNING WILL JUST BE
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE OF MEASURING
.01. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE SCOOTS
OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH. BUT THE INCREASED SUNSHINE BY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW BETTER SURFACE HEATING OVER THE LA/VENTURA
MOUNTAINS SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, BUT AGAIN OUTSIDE OF THE SURFACE HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHY
THERE ISN`T A LOT THAT THE AIR MASS IS GOING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT. CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION OUT OF THE
COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS. REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE MORNING FORECAST AND
KEPT IN FOR THE MTNS/AV THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
DECREASING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. SLO/SBA COUNTY MAY
HOLD ON TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH.

SOUNDINGS AND PROFILERS SHOW COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY
AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER. SO DESPITE THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TEMPS TODAY EITHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER. STILL FAIRLY HUMID BUT A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND LESS HUMIDITY. MARINE LYR
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS DEPART AND SHOULD BE
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING TO NEAR THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING EACH DAY.

MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
LA/VENTURA MTNS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT PWATS MUCH
LOWER, GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CU EACH DAY BUT MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ACTUAL STORMS. IF
NOTHING HAPPENS TODAY WILL LIKELY REMOVE STORMS FOR TOMORROW AND
LEAVE THEM OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST...AND
WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO THE EAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...A RELATIVELY UNEXCITING FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY...PUSHING INTO THE
COASTAL EACH NIGHT/MORNING...WITH A GOOD DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE WHIMS OF THE
MARINE LAYER...BUT SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1800Z.

AT 1813Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 500 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. THE TRANSITION FROM MOIST
MONSOONAL FLOW TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL BEGIN IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECTING A RETURN OF MARINE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH MOST
COASTAL SECTIONS SEEING THE CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. THE VALLEY
SECTIONS SHOULD STAY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS SNEAKING INTO KBUR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE MEAN TIME THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS WITH IFR CONDITIONS SNEAKING INTO THE
AIRFIELD BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 021901
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1155 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THEN JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...ONE LAST MONSOON PUSH THIS MORNING BEFORE
THE MOISTURE STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF INSTABILITY SO ANYTHING WE`LL GET THIS MORNING WILL JUST BE
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE OF MEASURING
.01. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE SCOOTS
OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH. BUT THE INCREASED SUNSHINE BY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW BETTER SURFACE HEATING OVER THE LA/VENTURA
MOUNTAINS SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, BUT AGAIN OUTSIDE OF THE SURFACE HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHY
THERE ISN`T A LOT THAT THE AIR MASS IS GOING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT. CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION OUT OF THE
COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS. REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE MORNING FORECAST AND
KEPT IN FOR THE MTNS/AV THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
DECREASING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. SLO/SBA COUNTY MAY
HOLD ON TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH.

SOUNDINGS AND PROFILERS SHOW COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY
AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER. SO DESPITE THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TEMPS TODAY EITHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER. STILL FAIRLY HUMID BUT A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND LESS HUMIDITY. MARINE LYR
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS DEPART AND SHOULD BE
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING TO NEAR THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING EACH DAY.

MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
LA/VENTURA MTNS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT PWATS MUCH
LOWER, GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CU EACH DAY BUT MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ACTUAL STORMS. IF
NOTHING HAPPENS TODAY WILL LIKELY REMOVE STORMS FOR TOMORROW AND
LEAVE THEM OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST...AND
WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO THE EAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...A RELATIVELY UNEXCITING FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY...PUSHING INTO THE
COASTAL EACH NIGHT/MORNING...WITH A GOOD DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE WHIMS OF THE
MARINE LAYER...BUT SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1800Z.

AT 1813Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 500 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. THE TRANSITION FROM MOIST
MONSOONAL FLOW TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL BEGIN IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECTING A RETURN OF MARINE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH MOST
COASTAL SECTIONS SEEING THE CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. THE VALLEY
SECTIONS SHOULD STAY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS SNEAKING INTO KBUR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE MEAN TIME THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS WITH IFR CONDITIONS SNEAKING INTO THE
AIRFIELD BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 021901
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1155 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THEN JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...ONE LAST MONSOON PUSH THIS MORNING BEFORE
THE MOISTURE STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF INSTABILITY SO ANYTHING WE`LL GET THIS MORNING WILL JUST BE
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE OF MEASURING
.01. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE SCOOTS
OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH. BUT THE INCREASED SUNSHINE BY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW BETTER SURFACE HEATING OVER THE LA/VENTURA
MOUNTAINS SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, BUT AGAIN OUTSIDE OF THE SURFACE HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHY
THERE ISN`T A LOT THAT THE AIR MASS IS GOING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT. CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION OUT OF THE
COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS. REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE MORNING FORECAST AND
KEPT IN FOR THE MTNS/AV THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
DECREASING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. SLO/SBA COUNTY MAY
HOLD ON TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH.

SOUNDINGS AND PROFILERS SHOW COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY
AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER. SO DESPITE THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TEMPS TODAY EITHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER. STILL FAIRLY HUMID BUT A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND LESS HUMIDITY. MARINE LYR
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS DEPART AND SHOULD BE
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING TO NEAR THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING EACH DAY.

MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
LA/VENTURA MTNS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT PWATS MUCH
LOWER, GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CU EACH DAY BUT MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ACTUAL STORMS. IF
NOTHING HAPPENS TODAY WILL LIKELY REMOVE STORMS FOR TOMORROW AND
LEAVE THEM OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST...AND
WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO THE EAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...A RELATIVELY UNEXCITING FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY...PUSHING INTO THE
COASTAL EACH NIGHT/MORNING...WITH A GOOD DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE WHIMS OF THE
MARINE LAYER...BUT SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1800Z.

AT 1813Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 500 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. THE TRANSITION FROM MOIST
MONSOONAL FLOW TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL BEGIN IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECTING A RETURN OF MARINE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH MOST
COASTAL SECTIONS SEEING THE CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. THE VALLEY
SECTIONS SHOULD STAY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS SNEAKING INTO KBUR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE MEAN TIME THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS WITH IFR CONDITIONS SNEAKING INTO THE
AIRFIELD BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 021901
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1155 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THEN JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...ONE LAST MONSOON PUSH THIS MORNING BEFORE
THE MOISTURE STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF INSTABILITY SO ANYTHING WE`LL GET THIS MORNING WILL JUST BE
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE OF MEASURING
.01. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE SCOOTS
OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH. BUT THE INCREASED SUNSHINE BY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW BETTER SURFACE HEATING OVER THE LA/VENTURA
MOUNTAINS SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, BUT AGAIN OUTSIDE OF THE SURFACE HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHY
THERE ISN`T A LOT THAT THE AIR MASS IS GOING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT. CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION OUT OF THE
COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS. REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE MORNING FORECAST AND
KEPT IN FOR THE MTNS/AV THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
DECREASING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. SLO/SBA COUNTY MAY
HOLD ON TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH.

SOUNDINGS AND PROFILERS SHOW COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY
AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER. SO DESPITE THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TEMPS TODAY EITHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER. STILL FAIRLY HUMID BUT A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND LESS HUMIDITY. MARINE LYR
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS DEPART AND SHOULD BE
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING TO NEAR THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING EACH DAY.

MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
LA/VENTURA MTNS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT PWATS MUCH
LOWER, GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CU EACH DAY BUT MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ACTUAL STORMS. IF
NOTHING HAPPENS TODAY WILL LIKELY REMOVE STORMS FOR TOMORROW AND
LEAVE THEM OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST...AND
WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO THE EAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...A RELATIVELY UNEXCITING FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY...PUSHING INTO THE
COASTAL EACH NIGHT/MORNING...WITH A GOOD DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE WHIMS OF THE
MARINE LAYER...BUT SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1800Z.

AT 1813Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 500 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. THE TRANSITION FROM MOIST
MONSOONAL FLOW TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL BEGIN IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECTING A RETURN OF MARINE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH MOST
COASTAL SECTIONS SEEING THE CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. THE VALLEY
SECTIONS SHOULD STAY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS SNEAKING INTO KBUR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE MEAN TIME THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS WITH IFR CONDITIONS SNEAKING INTO THE
AIRFIELD BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 021621
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THEN JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...ONE LAST MONSOON PUSH THIS MORNING BEFORE
THE MOISTURE STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF INSTABILITY SO ANYTHING WE`LL GET THIS MORNING WILL JUST BE
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE OF MEASURING
.01. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE SCOOTS
OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH. BUT THE INCREASED SUNSHINE BY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW BETTER SURFACE HEATING OVER THE LA/VENTURA
MOUNTAINS SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, BUT AGAIN OUTSIDE OF THE SURFACE HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHY
THERE ISN`T A LOT THAT THE AIR MASS IS GOING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT. CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION OUT OF THE
COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS. REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE MORNING FORECAST AND
KEPT IN FOR THE MTNS/AV THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
DECREASING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. SLO/SBA COUNTY MAY
HOLD ON TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH.

SOUNDINGS AND PROFILERS SHOW COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY
AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER. SO DESPITE THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TEMPS TODAY EITHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER. STILL FAIRLY HUMID BUT A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND LESS HUMIDITY. MARINE LYR
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS DEPART AND SHOULD BE
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING TO NEAR THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING EACH DAY.

MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
LA/VENTURA MTNS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT PWATS MUCH
LOWER, GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CU EACH DAY BUT MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ACTUAL STORMS. IF
NOTHING HAPPENS TODAY WILL LIKELY REMOVE STORMS FOR TOMORROW AND
LEAVE THEM OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST...AND
WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO THE EAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...A RELATIVELY UNEXCITING FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY...PUSHING INTO THE
COASTAL EACH NIGHT/MORNING...WITH A GOOD DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE WHIMS OF THE
MARINE LAYER...BUT SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1130Z...

EXPECT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PD. SOME LOCAL
STRATUS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL SECTIONS
THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 021621
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THEN JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...ONE LAST MONSOON PUSH THIS MORNING BEFORE
THE MOISTURE STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF INSTABILITY SO ANYTHING WE`LL GET THIS MORNING WILL JUST BE
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE OF MEASURING
.01. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE SCOOTS
OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH. BUT THE INCREASED SUNSHINE BY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW BETTER SURFACE HEATING OVER THE LA/VENTURA
MOUNTAINS SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, BUT AGAIN OUTSIDE OF THE SURFACE HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHY
THERE ISN`T A LOT THAT THE AIR MASS IS GOING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT. CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION OUT OF THE
COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS. REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE MORNING FORECAST AND
KEPT IN FOR THE MTNS/AV THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
DECREASING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. SLO/SBA COUNTY MAY
HOLD ON TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH.

SOUNDINGS AND PROFILERS SHOW COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY
AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER. SO DESPITE THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TEMPS TODAY EITHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER. STILL FAIRLY HUMID BUT A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND LESS HUMIDITY. MARINE LYR
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS DEPART AND SHOULD BE
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING TO NEAR THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING EACH DAY.

MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
LA/VENTURA MTNS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT PWATS MUCH
LOWER, GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CU EACH DAY BUT MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ACTUAL STORMS. IF
NOTHING HAPPENS TODAY WILL LIKELY REMOVE STORMS FOR TOMORROW AND
LEAVE THEM OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST...AND
WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO THE EAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...A RELATIVELY UNEXCITING FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY...PUSHING INTO THE
COASTAL EACH NIGHT/MORNING...WITH A GOOD DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE WHIMS OF THE
MARINE LAYER...BUT SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1130Z...

EXPECT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PD. SOME LOCAL
STRATUS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL SECTIONS
THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 021621
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THEN JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...ONE LAST MONSOON PUSH THIS MORNING BEFORE
THE MOISTURE STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF INSTABILITY SO ANYTHING WE`LL GET THIS MORNING WILL JUST BE
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE OF MEASURING
.01. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE SCOOTS
OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH. BUT THE INCREASED SUNSHINE BY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW BETTER SURFACE HEATING OVER THE LA/VENTURA
MOUNTAINS SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, BUT AGAIN OUTSIDE OF THE SURFACE HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHY
THERE ISN`T A LOT THAT THE AIR MASS IS GOING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT. CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION OUT OF THE
COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS. REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE MORNING FORECAST AND
KEPT IN FOR THE MTNS/AV THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
DECREASING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. SLO/SBA COUNTY MAY
HOLD ON TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH.

SOUNDINGS AND PROFILERS SHOW COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY
AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER. SO DESPITE THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TEMPS TODAY EITHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER. STILL FAIRLY HUMID BUT A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND LESS HUMIDITY. MARINE LYR
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS DEPART AND SHOULD BE
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING TO NEAR THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING EACH DAY.

MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
LA/VENTURA MTNS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT PWATS MUCH
LOWER, GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CU EACH DAY BUT MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ACTUAL STORMS. IF
NOTHING HAPPENS TODAY WILL LIKELY REMOVE STORMS FOR TOMORROW AND
LEAVE THEM OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST...AND
WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO THE EAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...A RELATIVELY UNEXCITING FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY...PUSHING INTO THE
COASTAL EACH NIGHT/MORNING...WITH A GOOD DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE WHIMS OF THE
MARINE LAYER...BUT SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1130Z...

EXPECT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PD. SOME LOCAL
STRATUS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL SECTIONS
THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 021005 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST AREAS TODAY...THEN JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...ELONGATED RIDGE WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A WEAK LOW SPINS OFFSHORE.
NEAR THE SURFACE...GRADUALLY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THROUGH THIS MORNING...JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION HAS A
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY...ACROSS
INLAND AREAS...AS WELL AS SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...MODELS INDICATE
DECENT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD END FOR
FOR COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOVING PRETTY QUICK. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MOISTURE TAP SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER
STILL POSSIBLY ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER THE
LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (WITH MAIN
CONCENTRATION ON THE 80% CHANCE OF NOTHING DEVELOPING). OTHERWISE
WITH STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GET ESTABLISH TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRATUS/FOG RETURNING TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND MAYBE EEKING INTO SOME LOWER COASTAL
VALLEYS. WITH THE EXPECTED MORE SIGNIFICANT MARINE INFLUENCE AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER H5 HEIGHTS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL END ANY THREAT OF MONSOONAL
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITH A BIT MORE INLAND PENETRATION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST...AND
WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO THE EAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...A RELATIVELY UNEXCITING FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY...PUSHING INTO THE
COASTAL EACH NIGHT/MORNING...WITH A GOOD DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE WHIMS OF THE
MARINE LAYER...BUT SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1130Z...

EXPECT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PD. SOME LOCAL
STRATUS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL SECTIONS
THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...02/300 AM...
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS THROUGH SAT. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
FRI AND SAT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA CONDS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 021005 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST AREAS TODAY...THEN JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...ELONGATED RIDGE WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A WEAK LOW SPINS OFFSHORE.
NEAR THE SURFACE...GRADUALLY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THROUGH THIS MORNING...JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION HAS A
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY...ACROSS
INLAND AREAS...AS WELL AS SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...MODELS INDICATE
DECENT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD END FOR
FOR COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOVING PRETTY QUICK. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MOISTURE TAP SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER
STILL POSSIBLY ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER THE
LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (WITH MAIN
CONCENTRATION ON THE 80% CHANCE OF NOTHING DEVELOPING). OTHERWISE
WITH STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GET ESTABLISH TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRATUS/FOG RETURNING TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND MAYBE EEKING INTO SOME LOWER COASTAL
VALLEYS. WITH THE EXPECTED MORE SIGNIFICANT MARINE INFLUENCE AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER H5 HEIGHTS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL END ANY THREAT OF MONSOONAL
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITH A BIT MORE INLAND PENETRATION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST...AND
WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO THE EAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...A RELATIVELY UNEXCITING FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY...PUSHING INTO THE
COASTAL EACH NIGHT/MORNING...WITH A GOOD DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE WHIMS OF THE
MARINE LAYER...BUT SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1130Z...

EXPECT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PD. SOME LOCAL
STRATUS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL SECTIONS
THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...02/300 AM...
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS THROUGH SAT. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
FRI AND SAT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA CONDS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 021005 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST AREAS TODAY...THEN JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...ELONGATED RIDGE WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A WEAK LOW SPINS OFFSHORE.
NEAR THE SURFACE...GRADUALLY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THROUGH THIS MORNING...JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION HAS A
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY...ACROSS
INLAND AREAS...AS WELL AS SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...MODELS INDICATE
DECENT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD END FOR
FOR COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOVING PRETTY QUICK. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MOISTURE TAP SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER
STILL POSSIBLY ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER THE
LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (WITH MAIN
CONCENTRATION ON THE 80% CHANCE OF NOTHING DEVELOPING). OTHERWISE
WITH STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GET ESTABLISH TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRATUS/FOG RETURNING TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND MAYBE EEKING INTO SOME LOWER COASTAL
VALLEYS. WITH THE EXPECTED MORE SIGNIFICANT MARINE INFLUENCE AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER H5 HEIGHTS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL END ANY THREAT OF MONSOONAL
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITH A BIT MORE INLAND PENETRATION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST...AND
WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO THE EAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...A RELATIVELY UNEXCITING FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY...PUSHING INTO THE
COASTAL EACH NIGHT/MORNING...WITH A GOOD DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE WHIMS OF THE
MARINE LAYER...BUT SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1130Z...

EXPECT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PD. SOME LOCAL
STRATUS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL SECTIONS
THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...02/300 AM...
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS THROUGH SAT. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
FRI AND SAT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA CONDS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 020912
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
210 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST AREAS TODAY...THEN JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...ELONGATED RIDGE WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A WEAK LOW SPINS OFFSHORE.
NEAR THE SURFACE...GRADUALLY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THROUGH THIS MORNING...JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION HAS A
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY...ACROSS
INLAND AREAS...AS WELL AS SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...MODELS INDICATE
DECENT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD END FOR
FOR COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOVING PRETTY QUICK. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MOISTURE TAP SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER
STILL POSSIBLY ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER THE
LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (WITH MAIN
CONCENTRATION ON THE 80% CHANCE OF NOTHING DEVELOPING). OTHERWISE
WITH STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GET ESTABLISH TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRATUS/FOG RETURNING TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND MAYBE EEKING INTO SOME LOWER COASTAL
VALLEYS. WITH THE EXPECTED MORE SIGNIFICANT MARINE INFLUENCE AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER H5 HEIGHTS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL END ANY THREAT OF MONSOONAL
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITH A BIT MORE INLAND PENETRATION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST...AND
WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO THE EAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...A RELATIVELY UNEXCITING FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY...PUSHING INTO THE
COASTAL EACH NIGHT/MORNING...WITH A GOOD DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE WHIMS OF THE
MARINE LAYER...BUT SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1130Z...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 AM...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 020340 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND APPROACHES...COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...
AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT, LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT THERE REMAINS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND DESERTS OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AS WELL AS LIGHT SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
ORANGE COUNTY. ESRL PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS SHOWING VALUES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
EVEN HIGHER VALUES UP TO 1.8 INCHES UPSTREAM ACROSS THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM
THE 750 MB LEVEL ALL THE WAY UP TO 300 MB. IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES COULD HAPPEN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...
00Z MODEL AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FOCUSING BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY/CAPE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AS WELL AS
ALL OF SLO COUNTY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN FACT 00Z NAM MODEL SHOWING
MU CAPE VALUES OF 300-600 J/KG ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.
THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT NOTED IN THE CROSS SECTIONS
WARRANTS THE ADDITION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EVENING UPDATE
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND ALL OF SLO COUNTY.
CERTAINLY NOT A SURE THING...BUT ENOUGH FACTORS TO AT LEAST INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE...DRYING TREND STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS THAN MOST OF THIS
WEEK. THIS COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
MORE TYPICAL NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BY TOMORROW NIGHT.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 PM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR ZONES P645/670.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP/GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 020340 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND APPROACHES...COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...
AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT, LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT THERE REMAINS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND DESERTS OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AS WELL AS LIGHT SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
ORANGE COUNTY. ESRL PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS SHOWING VALUES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
EVEN HIGHER VALUES UP TO 1.8 INCHES UPSTREAM ACROSS THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM
THE 750 MB LEVEL ALL THE WAY UP TO 300 MB. IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES COULD HAPPEN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...
00Z MODEL AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FOCUSING BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY/CAPE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AS WELL AS
ALL OF SLO COUNTY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN FACT 00Z NAM MODEL SHOWING
MU CAPE VALUES OF 300-600 J/KG ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.
THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT NOTED IN THE CROSS SECTIONS
WARRANTS THE ADDITION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EVENING UPDATE
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND ALL OF SLO COUNTY.
CERTAINLY NOT A SURE THING...BUT ENOUGH FACTORS TO AT LEAST INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE...DRYING TREND STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS THAN MOST OF THIS
WEEK. THIS COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
MORE TYPICAL NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BY TOMORROW NIGHT.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 PM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR ZONES P645/670.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP/GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 012350 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 012350 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 012350 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 012350 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 012332
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 012332
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 012039
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
140 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1755Z...

AT 1700Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 800 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES
TONIGHT...HOWEVER TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE FROM 10-
14Z...BUT THE FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY
AND RANDOM DUE TO MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR KWJF AND KPMD THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OTHER
SITES WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TODAY...BUT THE CHANCE
OF THUNDER IS VERY SLIM.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z. ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS THAN 10% CHANCE)
OF A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. ISOLATED SPRINKLES
AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
(LESS THAN 10% CHANCE) OF A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 012039
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
140 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1755Z...

AT 1700Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 800 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES
TONIGHT...HOWEVER TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE FROM 10-
14Z...BUT THE FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY
AND RANDOM DUE TO MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR KWJF AND KPMD THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OTHER
SITES WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TODAY...BUT THE CHANCE
OF THUNDER IS VERY SLIM.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z. ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS THAN 10% CHANCE)
OF A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. ISOLATED SPRINKLES
AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
(LESS THAN 10% CHANCE) OF A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 011757
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1055 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
SHOWER ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...DECENT MONSOON SURGE IN PROGRESS WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.5" OVER OUR AREA AND AS HIGH AS 2" NEAR THE SALTON
SEA ACCORDING TO ESRL GPS SENSORS. A LOT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
VERY HUMID, BUT STABILITY PARAMETERS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE MTNS AND AV LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE COAST/VALLEY CONVECTION AND JUST
LEFT IN SMALL POPS FOR POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. VERY
UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY MEASUREABLE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY AS
IT`S VERY DRY BELOW 10000` BUT COULD SEE A FEW DROPS AT TIMES.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP QUITE A BIT TODAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH THE EXTRA HUMIDITY WILL OFFSET SOME OF THAT IN TERMS OF HOW
IT FEELS OUT THERE. WE GOT OFF TO A FAST START WITH THE WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT BY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DOWN ABOUT 10
FROM YESTERDAY.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LITTLE BURST OF MOISTURE SO
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO EARLY
THU FOR ALL AREAS. AGAIN PROBABLY A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER SCENARIO
AT BEST BUT FAR INTERIOR AREAS MAY BE AT RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR THAT WOULD BE MUCH FARTHER
EAST.

CLOUDS SHOULD START TO CLEAR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE THU EXPECTED TO PUSH TEMPS WARMER
IN MOST AREAS DESPITE THE AIR MASS AS A WHOLE BEING SOMEWHAT COOLER.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1755Z...

AT 1700Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 800 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES
TONIGHT...HOWEVER TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE FROM 10-
14Z...BUT THE FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY
AND RANDOM DUE TO MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR KWJF AND KPMD THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OTHER
SITES WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TODAY...BUT THE CHANCE
OF THUNDER IS VERY SLIM.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z. ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS THAN 10% CHANCE)
OF A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. ISOLATED SPRINKLES
AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
(LESS THAN 10% CHANCE) OF A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 011624
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
SHOWER ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...DECENT MONSOON SURGE IN PROGRESS WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.5" OVER OUR AREA AND AS HIGH AS 2" NEAR THE SALTON
SEA ACCORDING TO ESRL GPS SENSORS. A LOT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
VERY HUMID, BUT STABILITY PARAMETERS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE MTNS AND AV LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE COAST/VALLEY CONVECTION AND JUST
LEFT IN SMALL POPS FOR POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. VERY
UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY MEASUREABLE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY AS
IT`S VERY DRY BELOW 10000` BUT COULD SEE A FEW DROPS AT TIMES.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP QUITE A BIT TODAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH THE EXTRA HUMIDITY WILL OFFSET SOME OF THAT IN TERMS OF HOW
IT FEELS OUT THERE. WE GOT OFF TO A FAST START WITH THE WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT BY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DOWN ABOUT 10
FROM YESTERDAY.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LITTLE BURST OF MOISTURE SO
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO EARLY
THU FOR ALL AREAS. AGAIN PROBABLY A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER SCENARIO
AT BEST BUT FAR INTERIOR AREAS MAY BE AT RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR THAT WOULD BE MUCH FARTHER
EAST.

CLOUDS SHOULD START TO CLEAR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE THU EXPECTED TO PUSH TEMPS WARMER
IN MOST AREAS DESPITE THE AIR MASS AS A WHOLE BEING SOMEWHAT COOLER.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1135Z...

AT 0842Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 700 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE EAST ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...DISRUPTING WHAT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS/FOG THERE IS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDS RETURNING TO COASTAL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING (12Z-16Z) AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER
06Z). ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
REMAINING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 011624
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
SHOWER ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...DECENT MONSOON SURGE IN PROGRESS WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.5" OVER OUR AREA AND AS HIGH AS 2" NEAR THE SALTON
SEA ACCORDING TO ESRL GPS SENSORS. A LOT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
VERY HUMID, BUT STABILITY PARAMETERS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE MTNS AND AV LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE COAST/VALLEY CONVECTION AND JUST
LEFT IN SMALL POPS FOR POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. VERY
UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY MEASUREABLE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY AS
IT`S VERY DRY BELOW 10000` BUT COULD SEE A FEW DROPS AT TIMES.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP QUITE A BIT TODAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH THE EXTRA HUMIDITY WILL OFFSET SOME OF THAT IN TERMS OF HOW
IT FEELS OUT THERE. WE GOT OFF TO A FAST START WITH THE WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT BY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DOWN ABOUT 10
FROM YESTERDAY.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LITTLE BURST OF MOISTURE SO
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO EARLY
THU FOR ALL AREAS. AGAIN PROBABLY A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER SCENARIO
AT BEST BUT FAR INTERIOR AREAS MAY BE AT RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR THAT WOULD BE MUCH FARTHER
EAST.

CLOUDS SHOULD START TO CLEAR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE THU EXPECTED TO PUSH TEMPS WARMER
IN MOST AREAS DESPITE THE AIR MASS AS A WHOLE BEING SOMEWHAT COOLER.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1135Z...

AT 0842Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 700 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE EAST ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...DISRUPTING WHAT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS/FOG THERE IS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDS RETURNING TO COASTAL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING (12Z-16Z) AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER
06Z). ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
REMAINING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 011624
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
SHOWER ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...DECENT MONSOON SURGE IN PROGRESS WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.5" OVER OUR AREA AND AS HIGH AS 2" NEAR THE SALTON
SEA ACCORDING TO ESRL GPS SENSORS. A LOT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
VERY HUMID, BUT STABILITY PARAMETERS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE MTNS AND AV LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE COAST/VALLEY CONVECTION AND JUST
LEFT IN SMALL POPS FOR POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. VERY
UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY MEASUREABLE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY AS
IT`S VERY DRY BELOW 10000` BUT COULD SEE A FEW DROPS AT TIMES.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP QUITE A BIT TODAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH THE EXTRA HUMIDITY WILL OFFSET SOME OF THAT IN TERMS OF HOW
IT FEELS OUT THERE. WE GOT OFF TO A FAST START WITH THE WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT BY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DOWN ABOUT 10
FROM YESTERDAY.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LITTLE BURST OF MOISTURE SO
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO EARLY
THU FOR ALL AREAS. AGAIN PROBABLY A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER SCENARIO
AT BEST BUT FAR INTERIOR AREAS MAY BE AT RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR THAT WOULD BE MUCH FARTHER
EAST.

CLOUDS SHOULD START TO CLEAR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE THU EXPECTED TO PUSH TEMPS WARMER
IN MOST AREAS DESPITE THE AIR MASS AS A WHOLE BEING SOMEWHAT COOLER.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1135Z...

AT 0842Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 700 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE EAST ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...DISRUPTING WHAT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS/FOG THERE IS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDS RETURNING TO COASTAL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING (12Z-16Z) AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER
06Z). ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
REMAINING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 011136 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)... ALL EYES ON A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THAT IS MOVING TO THE WNW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF L.A.
COUNTY AROUND DAWN. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE WAVE
REACHES SLO COUNTY IT WILL LACK THE OOMPH NEEDED FOR TSTMS AND THERE
WILL JUST BE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. LOTS OF MOISTURE BUT NOT SO MUCH
IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING STILL JUST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM OR SHOWER ANYWHERE OVER LA
OR VTA COUNTY AND THE ERN PORTION OF SBA COUNTY. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GREATLY REDUCE THE WORRY OF FLASH FLOODING.
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF ANY STRATUS...MAYBE A LITTLE AROUND THE CENTRAL
COAST BUT IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM OVERHEAD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN YDY FOR
SURE...UNFORTUNATELY THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL WORSE. MAX
TEMP FORECAST IN FACT MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF THE
APPROACHING CLOUDS ARE THICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.

ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OBLITERATE THE MARINE LAYER SO
SKIES TONIGHT WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNIER AND WARMER. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND THE DESERTS.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1135Z...

AT 0842Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 700 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE EAST ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...DISRUPTING WHAT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS/FOG THERE IS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDS RETURNING TO COASTAL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING (12Z-16Z) AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER
06Z). ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
REMAINING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...01/250 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND..THERE IS A
CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL SOUTHWARD...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 011136 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)... ALL EYES ON A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THAT IS MOVING TO THE WNW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF L.A.
COUNTY AROUND DAWN. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE WAVE
REACHES SLO COUNTY IT WILL LACK THE OOMPH NEEDED FOR TSTMS AND THERE
WILL JUST BE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. LOTS OF MOISTURE BUT NOT SO MUCH
IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING STILL JUST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM OR SHOWER ANYWHERE OVER LA
OR VTA COUNTY AND THE ERN PORTION OF SBA COUNTY. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GREATLY REDUCE THE WORRY OF FLASH FLOODING.
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF ANY STRATUS...MAYBE A LITTLE AROUND THE CENTRAL
COAST BUT IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM OVERHEAD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN YDY FOR
SURE...UNFORTUNATELY THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL WORSE. MAX
TEMP FORECAST IN FACT MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF THE
APPROACHING CLOUDS ARE THICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.

ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OBLITERATE THE MARINE LAYER SO
SKIES TONIGHT WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNIER AND WARMER. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND THE DESERTS.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1135Z...

AT 0842Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 700 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE EAST ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...DISRUPTING WHAT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS/FOG THERE IS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDS RETURNING TO COASTAL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING (12Z-16Z) AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER
06Z). ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
REMAINING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...01/250 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND..THERE IS A
CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL SOUTHWARD...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 011136 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)... ALL EYES ON A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THAT IS MOVING TO THE WNW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF L.A.
COUNTY AROUND DAWN. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE WAVE
REACHES SLO COUNTY IT WILL LACK THE OOMPH NEEDED FOR TSTMS AND THERE
WILL JUST BE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. LOTS OF MOISTURE BUT NOT SO MUCH
IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING STILL JUST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM OR SHOWER ANYWHERE OVER LA
OR VTA COUNTY AND THE ERN PORTION OF SBA COUNTY. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GREATLY REDUCE THE WORRY OF FLASH FLOODING.
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF ANY STRATUS...MAYBE A LITTLE AROUND THE CENTRAL
COAST BUT IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM OVERHEAD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN YDY FOR
SURE...UNFORTUNATELY THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL WORSE. MAX
TEMP FORECAST IN FACT MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF THE
APPROACHING CLOUDS ARE THICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.

ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OBLITERATE THE MARINE LAYER SO
SKIES TONIGHT WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNIER AND WARMER. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND THE DESERTS.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1135Z...

AT 0842Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 700 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE EAST ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...DISRUPTING WHAT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS/FOG THERE IS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDS RETURNING TO COASTAL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING (12Z-16Z) AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER
06Z). ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
REMAINING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...01/250 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND..THERE IS A
CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL SOUTHWARD...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 011009
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)... ALL EYES ON A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THAT IS MOVING TO THE WNW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF L.A.
COUNTY AROUND DAWN. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE WAVE
REACHES SLO COUNTY IT WILL LACK THE OOMPH NEEDED FOR TSTMS AND THERE
WILL JUST BE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. LOTS OF MOISTURE BUT NOT SO MUCH
IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING STILL JUST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM OR SHOWER ANYWHERE OVER LA
OR VTA COUNTY AND THE ERN PORTION OF SBA COUNTY. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GREATLY REDUCE THE WORRY OF FLASH FLOODING.
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF ANY STRATUS...MAYBE A LITTLE AROUND THE CENTRAL
COAST BUT IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM OVERHEAD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN YDY FOR
SURE...UNFORTUNATELY THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL WORSE. MAX
TEMP FORECAST IN FACT MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF THE
APPROACHING CLOUDS ARE THICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.

ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OBLITERATE THE MARINE LAYER SO
SKIES TONIGHT WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNIER AND WARMER. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND THE DESERTS.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/0540Z

AT 0520Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 700 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 30 DEG C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NON COASTAL TAFS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS
KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND
LASTING UNTIL 17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE KSMX TAF BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
KSBP TAF WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 10Z-17Z.

THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40
PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND LASTING UNTIL 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC
OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...

01/250 AM

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND..THERE IS A
CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL SOUTHWARD...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 011009
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)... ALL EYES ON A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THAT IS MOVING TO THE WNW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF L.A.
COUNTY AROUND DAWN. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE WAVE
REACHES SLO COUNTY IT WILL LACK THE OOMPH NEEDED FOR TSTMS AND THERE
WILL JUST BE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. LOTS OF MOISTURE BUT NOT SO MUCH
IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING STILL JUST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM OR SHOWER ANYWHERE OVER LA
OR VTA COUNTY AND THE ERN PORTION OF SBA COUNTY. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GREATLY REDUCE THE WORRY OF FLASH FLOODING.
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF ANY STRATUS...MAYBE A LITTLE AROUND THE CENTRAL
COAST BUT IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM OVERHEAD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN YDY FOR
SURE...UNFORTUNATELY THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL WORSE. MAX
TEMP FORECAST IN FACT MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF THE
APPROACHING CLOUDS ARE THICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.

ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OBLITERATE THE MARINE LAYER SO
SKIES TONIGHT WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNIER AND WARMER. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND THE DESERTS.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/0540Z

AT 0520Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 700 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 30 DEG C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NON COASTAL TAFS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS
KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND
LASTING UNTIL 17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE KSMX TAF BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
KSBP TAF WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 10Z-17Z.

THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40
PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND LASTING UNTIL 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC
OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...

01/250 AM

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND..THERE IS A
CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL SOUTHWARD...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 010605
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS VERY SHALLOW
THIS EVENING AT KLAX...AROUND 500 FEET OR SO. LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED
ALONG AND OFF THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU THE NIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THRU L.A. COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH APPARENTLY CLEARED AWAY SOME OF THE
LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE NEAR THE COAST S OF PT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE AFFECT A FEW IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES LATE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS LINGERED THIS EVENING IN THE
FOOTHILLS..MTNS AND DESERTS. HOWEVER...LOCAL NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WERE AFFECTING MONTECITO HILLS WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 MPH AND
TEMPS SOARING TO 90 DEGREES AS OF 845 PM. THESE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AND SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEVADA FOR WED AND THU. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN
OVER NEVADA THU NIGHT AND FRI.

BROAD SE FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA DURING THE PERIOD...
WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHO THE
NAM IS FORECASTING THE MOISTURE TO DIMINISH SOME FOR FRI. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS UP TO 1.60 INCHES) AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE L.A./VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THRU FRI. FOR WED...HIER AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WHICH SHOULD ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE 00Z NAM IS ALSO HINTING THAT THIS MOISTURE MAY
LINGER WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY FROM VTU COUNTY NORTHWARD.

VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HI CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY THRU THU...ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DECENT ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BRING SOME GUSTY S TO W
WINDS MAINLY TO THE FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WED THRU
FRI...BUT HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROF DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTH AND THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON CONNECTION AND BRING A RETURN TO
TYPICAL NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH NO THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE GFS SHOWS THIS PATTERN LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE HIGH BACK WEST AND PUSH THAT
NRN CA TROF FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A WARMER
SOLUTION AND COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/0030Z

AT 0520Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 700 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 30 DEG C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NON COASTAL TAFS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS
KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND
LASTING UNTIL 17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE KSMX TAF BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
KSBP TAF WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 10Z-17Z.

THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40
PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND LASTING UNTIL 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC
OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH WEST WINDS WILL EXIST
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SANTA CRUZ BASINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND FETCH IN THE
VICINITY NEW ZEALAND SOUTH ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST. WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FETCH IS ORIENTED 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY.
THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND BUILD THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...30/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 010605
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS VERY SHALLOW
THIS EVENING AT KLAX...AROUND 500 FEET OR SO. LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED
ALONG AND OFF THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU THE NIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THRU L.A. COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH APPARENTLY CLEARED AWAY SOME OF THE
LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE NEAR THE COAST S OF PT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE AFFECT A FEW IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES LATE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS LINGERED THIS EVENING IN THE
FOOTHILLS..MTNS AND DESERTS. HOWEVER...LOCAL NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WERE AFFECTING MONTECITO HILLS WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 MPH AND
TEMPS SOARING TO 90 DEGREES AS OF 845 PM. THESE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AND SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEVADA FOR WED AND THU. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN
OVER NEVADA THU NIGHT AND FRI.

BROAD SE FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA DURING THE PERIOD...
WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHO THE
NAM IS FORECASTING THE MOISTURE TO DIMINISH SOME FOR FRI. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS UP TO 1.60 INCHES) AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE L.A./VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THRU FRI. FOR WED...HIER AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WHICH SHOULD ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE 00Z NAM IS ALSO HINTING THAT THIS MOISTURE MAY
LINGER WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY FROM VTU COUNTY NORTHWARD.

VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HI CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY THRU THU...ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DECENT ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BRING SOME GUSTY S TO W
WINDS MAINLY TO THE FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WED THRU
FRI...BUT HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROF DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTH AND THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON CONNECTION AND BRING A RETURN TO
TYPICAL NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH NO THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE GFS SHOWS THIS PATTERN LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE HIGH BACK WEST AND PUSH THAT
NRN CA TROF FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A WARMER
SOLUTION AND COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/0030Z

AT 0520Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 700 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 30 DEG C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NON COASTAL TAFS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS
KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND
LASTING UNTIL 17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE KSMX TAF BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
KSBP TAF WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 10Z-17Z.

THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40
PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND LASTING UNTIL 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC
OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH WEST WINDS WILL EXIST
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SANTA CRUZ BASINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND FETCH IN THE
VICINITY NEW ZEALAND SOUTH ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST. WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FETCH IS ORIENTED 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY.
THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND BUILD THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...30/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 010605
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS VERY SHALLOW
THIS EVENING AT KLAX...AROUND 500 FEET OR SO. LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED
ALONG AND OFF THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU THE NIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THRU L.A. COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH APPARENTLY CLEARED AWAY SOME OF THE
LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE NEAR THE COAST S OF PT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE AFFECT A FEW IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES LATE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS LINGERED THIS EVENING IN THE
FOOTHILLS..MTNS AND DESERTS. HOWEVER...LOCAL NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WERE AFFECTING MONTECITO HILLS WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 MPH AND
TEMPS SOARING TO 90 DEGREES AS OF 845 PM. THESE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AND SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEVADA FOR WED AND THU. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN
OVER NEVADA THU NIGHT AND FRI.

BROAD SE FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA DURING THE PERIOD...
WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHO THE
NAM IS FORECASTING THE MOISTURE TO DIMINISH SOME FOR FRI. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS UP TO 1.60 INCHES) AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE L.A./VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THRU FRI. FOR WED...HIER AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WHICH SHOULD ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE 00Z NAM IS ALSO HINTING THAT THIS MOISTURE MAY
LINGER WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY FROM VTU COUNTY NORTHWARD.

VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HI CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY THRU THU...ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DECENT ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BRING SOME GUSTY S TO W
WINDS MAINLY TO THE FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WED THRU
FRI...BUT HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROF DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTH AND THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON CONNECTION AND BRING A RETURN TO
TYPICAL NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH NO THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE GFS SHOWS THIS PATTERN LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE HIGH BACK WEST AND PUSH THAT
NRN CA TROF FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A WARMER
SOLUTION AND COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/0030Z

AT 0520Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 700 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 30 DEG C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NON COASTAL TAFS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS
KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND
LASTING UNTIL 17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE KSMX TAF BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
KSBP TAF WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 10Z-17Z.

THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40
PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND LASTING UNTIL 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC
OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH WEST WINDS WILL EXIST
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SANTA CRUZ BASINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND FETCH IN THE
VICINITY NEW ZEALAND SOUTH ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST. WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FETCH IS ORIENTED 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY.
THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND BUILD THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...30/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 010605
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS VERY SHALLOW
THIS EVENING AT KLAX...AROUND 500 FEET OR SO. LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED
ALONG AND OFF THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU THE NIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THRU L.A. COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH APPARENTLY CLEARED AWAY SOME OF THE
LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE NEAR THE COAST S OF PT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE AFFECT A FEW IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES LATE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS LINGERED THIS EVENING IN THE
FOOTHILLS..MTNS AND DESERTS. HOWEVER...LOCAL NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WERE AFFECTING MONTECITO HILLS WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 MPH AND
TEMPS SOARING TO 90 DEGREES AS OF 845 PM. THESE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AND SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEVADA FOR WED AND THU. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN
OVER NEVADA THU NIGHT AND FRI.

BROAD SE FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA DURING THE PERIOD...
WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHO THE
NAM IS FORECASTING THE MOISTURE TO DIMINISH SOME FOR FRI. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS UP TO 1.60 INCHES) AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE L.A./VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THRU FRI. FOR WED...HIER AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WHICH SHOULD ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE 00Z NAM IS ALSO HINTING THAT THIS MOISTURE MAY
LINGER WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY FROM VTU COUNTY NORTHWARD.

VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HI CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY THRU THU...ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DECENT ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BRING SOME GUSTY S TO W
WINDS MAINLY TO THE FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WED THRU
FRI...BUT HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROF DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTH AND THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON CONNECTION AND BRING A RETURN TO
TYPICAL NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH NO THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE GFS SHOWS THIS PATTERN LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE HIGH BACK WEST AND PUSH THAT
NRN CA TROF FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A WARMER
SOLUTION AND COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/0030Z

AT 0520Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 700 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 30 DEG C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NON COASTAL TAFS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS
KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND
LASTING UNTIL 17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE KSMX TAF BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
KSBP TAF WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 10Z-17Z.

THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40
PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND LASTING UNTIL 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC
OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH WEST WINDS WILL EXIST
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SANTA CRUZ BASINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND FETCH IN THE
VICINITY NEW ZEALAND SOUTH ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST. WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FETCH IS ORIENTED 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY.
THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND BUILD THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...30/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 010438
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS VERY SHALLOW
THIS EVENING AT KLAX...AROUND 500 FEET OR SO. LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED
ALONG AND OFF THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU THE NIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THRU L.A. COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH APPARENTLY CLEARED AWAY SOME OF THE
LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE NEAR THE COAST S OF PT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE AFFECT A FEW IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES LATE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS LINGERED THIS EVENING IN THE
FOOTHILLS..MTNS AND DESERTS. HOWEVER...LOCAL NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WERE AFFECTING MONTECITO HILLS WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 MPH AND
TEMPS SOARING TO 90 DEGREES AS OF 845 PM. THESE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AND SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEVADA FOR WED AND THU. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN
OVER NEVADA THU NIGHT AND FRI.

BROAD SE FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA DURING THE PERIOD...
WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHO THE
NAM IS FORECASTING THE MOISTURE TO DIMINISH SOME FOR FRI. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS UP TO 1.60 INCHES) AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE L.A./VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THRU FRI. FOR WED...HIER AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WHICH SHOULD ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE 00Z NAM IS ALSO HINTING THAT THIS MOISTURE MAY
LINGER WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY FROM VTU COUNTY NORTHWARD.

VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HI CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY THRU THU...ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DECENT ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BRING SOME GUSTY S TO W
WINDS MAINLY TO THE FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WED THRU
FRI...BUT HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROF DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTH AND THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON CONNECTION AND BRING A RETURN TO
TYPICAL NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH NO THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE GFS SHOWS THIS PATTERN LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE HIGH BACK WEST AND PUSH THAT
NRN CA TROF FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A WARMER
SOLUTION AND COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0030Z...

AT 2350Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2000 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEG C.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS AT TIMES TONIGHT
AND WED MORNING...WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 04Z
AT KOXR TO 13Z AT KLGB. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU WED.
GUSTY SW WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH WED EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 12Z-
17Z...WITH THE TIMING OF ONSET AND DISSIPATION POSSIBLY OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH WEST WINDS WILL EXIST
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SANTA CRUZ BASINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND FETCH IN THE
VICINITY NEW ZEALAND SOUTH ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST. WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FETCH IS ORIENTED 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY.
THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND BUILD THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 010438
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS VERY SHALLOW
THIS EVENING AT KLAX...AROUND 500 FEET OR SO. LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED
ALONG AND OFF THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU THE NIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THRU L.A. COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH APPARENTLY CLEARED AWAY SOME OF THE
LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE NEAR THE COAST S OF PT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE AFFECT A FEW IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES LATE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS LINGERED THIS EVENING IN THE
FOOTHILLS..MTNS AND DESERTS. HOWEVER...LOCAL NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WERE AFFECTING MONTECITO HILLS WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 MPH AND
TEMPS SOARING TO 90 DEGREES AS OF 845 PM. THESE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AND SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEVADA FOR WED AND THU. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN
OVER NEVADA THU NIGHT AND FRI.

BROAD SE FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA DURING THE PERIOD...
WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHO THE
NAM IS FORECASTING THE MOISTURE TO DIMINISH SOME FOR FRI. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS UP TO 1.60 INCHES) AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE L.A./VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THRU FRI. FOR WED...HIER AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WHICH SHOULD ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE 00Z NAM IS ALSO HINTING THAT THIS MOISTURE MAY
LINGER WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY FROM VTU COUNTY NORTHWARD.

VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HI CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY THRU THU...ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DECENT ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BRING SOME GUSTY S TO W
WINDS MAINLY TO THE FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WED THRU
FRI...BUT HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROF DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTH AND THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON CONNECTION AND BRING A RETURN TO
TYPICAL NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH NO THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE GFS SHOWS THIS PATTERN LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE HIGH BACK WEST AND PUSH THAT
NRN CA TROF FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A WARMER
SOLUTION AND COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0030Z...

AT 2350Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2000 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEG C.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS AT TIMES TONIGHT
AND WED MORNING...WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 04Z
AT KOXR TO 13Z AT KLGB. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU WED.
GUSTY SW WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH WED EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 12Z-
17Z...WITH THE TIMING OF ONSET AND DISSIPATION POSSIBLY OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH WEST WINDS WILL EXIST
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SANTA CRUZ BASINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND FETCH IN THE
VICINITY NEW ZEALAND SOUTH ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST. WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FETCH IS ORIENTED 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY.
THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND BUILD THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 010038 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
540 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE AREA UNDER
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE HAD SOME SMALL CU POP UP
ACROSS THE MTNS AND AV BUT FAR TOO WEAK TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP YET.
STILL ENOUGH HEATING LEFT TODAY TO KEEP THE THUNDER THREAT GOING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THOSE AREAS SO NO CHANGES THERE.

STILL CLOSELY MONITORING THE MOISTURE AND CONVECTION NOW ACROSS THE
BORDER INTO THE US AND INTO SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WILL SEE THE REMNANTS
OF THIS MOVE INTO THE SRN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SHOULDN`T BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT OTHER THAN
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE SOUTH.
IT`S THE SECOND BATCH OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTION THAT IS JUST
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF TUCSON THAT WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING VERY
LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS WHEN IT COMES THROUGH OUR AREA, LIKELY
IN PART DUE TO THE THICK MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER, AND FOR NOW
HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY ZONES. NOT
VERY KEEN ON THE MTN/AV THUNDERSTORMS EITHER FOR THE SAME REASON BUT
IF CLOUDS ARE NOT AS THICK AS EXPECTED AND WE CAN GET SOME
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING THEN THERE COULD ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST IS PREDICATED ON A
THICKER CLOUD SHIELD COOLING TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TODAY,
THOUGH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COOLING
EFFECTS.

THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS AND MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. STILL SOME
SMALL CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS AND AV THU AFTERNOON THOUGH AGAIN
MODELS ARE INDICATING MINIMAL INSTABILITY. BETTER HEATING THOUGH
WITH THE DECREASED CLOUD COVER SO POSSIBLY ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO
GET A STORM OR TWO TO POP. SOME COAST/VALLEY AREAS LIKELY TO SEE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING THU WITH MORE SUN THAN WED.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE FRIDAY WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH IN MOST AREAS. AM LEAVING IN THE SMALL MTN/AV POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AGAIN BUT IF NOTHING HAPPENS THU THEN FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE QUIET AS WELL. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROF DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTH AND THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON CONNECTION AND BRING A RETURN TO
TYPICAL NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH NO THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE GFS SHOWS THIS PATTERN LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE HIGH BACK WEST AND PUSH THAT
NRN CA TROF FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A WARMER
SOLUTION AND COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0030Z...

AT 2350Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2000 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEG C.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS AT TIMES TONIGHT
AND WED MORNING...WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 04Z
AT KOXR TO 13Z AT KLGB. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU WED.
GUSTY SW WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH WED EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 12Z-
17Z...WITH THE TIMING OF ONSET AND DISSIPATION POSSIBLY OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH WEST WINDS WILL EXIST
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SANTA CRUZ BASINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND FETCH IN THE
VICINITY NEW ZEALAND SOUTH ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST. WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FETCH IS ORIENTED 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY.
THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND BUILD THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 010038 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
540 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE AREA UNDER
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE HAD SOME SMALL CU POP UP
ACROSS THE MTNS AND AV BUT FAR TOO WEAK TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP YET.
STILL ENOUGH HEATING LEFT TODAY TO KEEP THE THUNDER THREAT GOING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THOSE AREAS SO NO CHANGES THERE.

STILL CLOSELY MONITORING THE MOISTURE AND CONVECTION NOW ACROSS THE
BORDER INTO THE US AND INTO SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WILL SEE THE REMNANTS
OF THIS MOVE INTO THE SRN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SHOULDN`T BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT OTHER THAN
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE SOUTH.
IT`S THE SECOND BATCH OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTION THAT IS JUST
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF TUCSON THAT WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING VERY
LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS WHEN IT COMES THROUGH OUR AREA, LIKELY
IN PART DUE TO THE THICK MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER, AND FOR NOW
HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY ZONES. NOT
VERY KEEN ON THE MTN/AV THUNDERSTORMS EITHER FOR THE SAME REASON BUT
IF CLOUDS ARE NOT AS THICK AS EXPECTED AND WE CAN GET SOME
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING THEN THERE COULD ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST IS PREDICATED ON A
THICKER CLOUD SHIELD COOLING TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TODAY,
THOUGH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COOLING
EFFECTS.

THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS AND MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. STILL SOME
SMALL CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS AND AV THU AFTERNOON THOUGH AGAIN
MODELS ARE INDICATING MINIMAL INSTABILITY. BETTER HEATING THOUGH
WITH THE DECREASED CLOUD COVER SO POSSIBLY ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO
GET A STORM OR TWO TO POP. SOME COAST/VALLEY AREAS LIKELY TO SEE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING THU WITH MORE SUN THAN WED.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE FRIDAY WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH IN MOST AREAS. AM LEAVING IN THE SMALL MTN/AV POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AGAIN BUT IF NOTHING HAPPENS THU THEN FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE QUIET AS WELL. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROF DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTH AND THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON CONNECTION AND BRING A RETURN TO
TYPICAL NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH NO THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE GFS SHOWS THIS PATTERN LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE HIGH BACK WEST AND PUSH THAT
NRN CA TROF FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A WARMER
SOLUTION AND COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0030Z...

AT 2350Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2000 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEG C.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS AT TIMES TONIGHT
AND WED MORNING...WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 04Z
AT KOXR TO 13Z AT KLGB. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU WED.
GUSTY SW WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH WED EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 12Z-
17Z...WITH THE TIMING OF ONSET AND DISSIPATION POSSIBLY OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH WEST WINDS WILL EXIST
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SANTA CRUZ BASINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND FETCH IN THE
VICINITY NEW ZEALAND SOUTH ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST. WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FETCH IS ORIENTED 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY.
THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND BUILD THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 302055
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
155 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE AREA UNDER
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE HAD SOME SMALL CU POP UP
ACROSS THE MTNS AND AV BUT FAR TOO WEAK TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP YET.
STILL ENOUGH HEATING LEFT TODAY TO KEEP THE THUNDER THREAT GOING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THOSE AREAS SO NO CHANGES THERE.

STILL CLOSELY MONITORING THE MOISTURE AND CONVECTION NOW ACROSS THE
BORDER INTO THE US AND INTO SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WILL SEE THE REMNANTS
OF THIS MOVE INTO THE SRN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SHOULDN`T BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT OTHER THAN
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE SOUTH.
IT`S THE SECOND BATCH OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTION THAT IS JUST
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF TUCSON THAT WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING VERY
LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS WHEN IT COMES THROUGH OUR AREA, LIKELY
IN PART DUE TO THE THICK MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER, AND FOR NOW
HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY ZONES. NOT
VERY KEEN ON THE MTN/AV THUNDERSTORMS EITHER FOR THE SAME REASON BUT
IF CLOUDS ARE NOT AS THICK AS EXPECTED AND WE CAN GET SOME
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING THEN THERE COULD ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST IS PREDICATED ON A
THICKER CLOUD SHIELD COOLING TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TODAY,
THOUGH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COOLING
EFFECTS.

THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS AND MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. STILL SOME
SMALL CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS AND AV THU AFTERNOON THOUGH AGAIN
MODELS ARE INDICATING MINIMAL INSTABILITY. BETTER HEATING THOUGH
WITH THE DECREASED CLOUD COVER SO POSSIBLY ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO
GET A STORM OR TWO TO POP. SOME COAST/VALLEY AREAS LIKELY TO SEE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING THU WITH MORE SUN THAN WED.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE FRIDAY WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH IN MOST AREAS. AM LEAVING IN THE SMALL MTN/AV POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AGAIN BUT IF NOTHING HAPPENS THU THEN FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE QUIET AS WELL. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROF DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTH AND THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON CONNECTION AND BRING A RETURN TO
TYPICAL NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH NO THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE GFS SHOWS THIS PATTERN LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE HIGH BACK WEST AND PUSH THAT
NRN CA TROF FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A WARMER
SOLUTION AND COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
WILL PERSIST. MID/UPPER LEVEL LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY TO LA COUNTY THROUGH 01/03Z AND AFTER 01/20Z.
TSTMS WITH TOPS 40KFT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST APPROXIMATELY 25KT. BASE
OF THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION WAS AROUND .9FT THIS MORNING OVER
KLAX AND WILL CHANGE LITTLE.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1600Z IS 910 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 4323 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 26.2 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 009 BETWEEN 01/13-01/17Z OTHERWISE CURRENT SKY/VSBY
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH WEST WINDS WILL EXIST
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SANTA CRUZ BASINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND FETCH IN THE
VICINITY NEW ZEALAND SOUTH ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST. WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FETCH IS ORIENTED 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY.
THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND BUILD THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





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