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000
FXUS66 KLOX 180004 AAB
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
505 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE
SANTA BARBARA AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...TEMPS TODAY TRENDING COOLER BY 4-8 DEGREES
ON AVERAGE AS GRADIENTS TREND ONSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF.
CONVECTION GETTING A SLOWER START TODAY BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN LA COUNTY. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING GIVEN THAT WE ARE SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT BUT
STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THE CONCERN WILL BE TO OUR EAST WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER HOT SUNDOWNER FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALREADY GETTING SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR GAVIOTA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE
AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER SRN CA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND CAUSE THE MARINE
LYR TO DEEPEN QUITE A BIT. N OF PT CONCEPTION IT SHOULD DEEPEN UP
OVER 2000 FT WITH CLOUDS SPILLING WELL INTO INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO BRING
ACTUAL RAIN, BUT THE DEEPENING MARINE LYR COULD SPIT OUT SOME
DRIZZLE UP NORTH EARLY THU. FURTHER SOUTH WE`RE EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS
TO START FORMING OVER THE BIGHT TONIGHT AND PUSH ONSHORE LATE AND
INTO THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS THU MORNING. THE BIG ONSHORE PUSH WILL
BRING CONSIDERABLE COOLING TO ALL AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS
WHERE HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE LOW 100S TODAY TO THE MID 80S THU IN
MANY AREAS.

FURTHER COOLING AND MARINE LYR DEEPENING (ESPECIALLY S OF PT
CONCEPTION) FRIDAY AS THE TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WILL SHIFT TO LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRI AS THE
MARINE LYR LIKELY SHOOTS UP OVER 2500` AND GETS CLOSE TO THE LOWER
COASTAL SLOPES. WILL PROBABLY GET SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER
THE MTNS AS WE GET SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW BUT IT
DOESN`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTORMS. MOST AREA HIGHS EXPECTED
TO TUMBLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FRI FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2 WEEKS.
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD CERTAINLY BE EVEN COOLER IF IT
WEREN`T FOR SST`S THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMER SST`S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND EVEN MORE UNPREDICTABLE MARINE LYR BEHAVIOR THAN
USUAL, BUT CERTAINLY EARLIER CLEARING THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DEEP MARINE LYR.

THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO FILL SAT AS THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER MARINE LYR DEPTH.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS AGREE ON THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST SUNDAY FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING AND MARINE LYR SHRINKAGE.
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
BIG TIME AWAY FROM THE HUGE 600+DM HIGH OVER NRN CA TO A RATHER DEEP
TROF ACROSS THE PAC NW. EVEN THE 5 WAVE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, BUT GIVEN
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
CHANGE I`M INCLINED TO GO ALONG WITH IT. WITH THIS IN MIND MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S A FAR CRY FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE
AN EVEN HOTTER HEAT WAVE THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED AND I WOULD
NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS FLIP BACK TO THAT
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...17/2355Z...GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THU FOR
ALL THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT MOST OF THESE AIRFIELDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM 03Z THIS EVENING AT KSMX TO 17Z THU AT
KSBA...ALTHO THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FOR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AT KSBA.
ALSO...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS ESPECIALLY S OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT THU
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AIRFIELDS WHICH MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...BUT SHOULD LINGER THRU MUCH THE THU AFTERNOON AT KOXR...KLAX
AND KLGB. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TONIGHT AT KSBA
DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. FOR KPMD AND KWJF...HI
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THU...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY THU AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THU. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 10Z THEN LINGER THRU
22Z BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THU EVENING. THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
SCATTER OUT AT ALL ON THU.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THU. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 12Z THEN LINGER THRU
22Z. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...17/215 PM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/215 PM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER
TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX)
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 180004 AAB
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
505 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE
SANTA BARBARA AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...TEMPS TODAY TRENDING COOLER BY 4-8 DEGREES
ON AVERAGE AS GRADIENTS TREND ONSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF.
CONVECTION GETTING A SLOWER START TODAY BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN LA COUNTY. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING GIVEN THAT WE ARE SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT BUT
STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THE CONCERN WILL BE TO OUR EAST WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER HOT SUNDOWNER FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALREADY GETTING SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR GAVIOTA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE
AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER SRN CA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND CAUSE THE MARINE
LYR TO DEEPEN QUITE A BIT. N OF PT CONCEPTION IT SHOULD DEEPEN UP
OVER 2000 FT WITH CLOUDS SPILLING WELL INTO INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO BRING
ACTUAL RAIN, BUT THE DEEPENING MARINE LYR COULD SPIT OUT SOME
DRIZZLE UP NORTH EARLY THU. FURTHER SOUTH WE`RE EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS
TO START FORMING OVER THE BIGHT TONIGHT AND PUSH ONSHORE LATE AND
INTO THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS THU MORNING. THE BIG ONSHORE PUSH WILL
BRING CONSIDERABLE COOLING TO ALL AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS
WHERE HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE LOW 100S TODAY TO THE MID 80S THU IN
MANY AREAS.

FURTHER COOLING AND MARINE LYR DEEPENING (ESPECIALLY S OF PT
CONCEPTION) FRIDAY AS THE TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WILL SHIFT TO LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRI AS THE
MARINE LYR LIKELY SHOOTS UP OVER 2500` AND GETS CLOSE TO THE LOWER
COASTAL SLOPES. WILL PROBABLY GET SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER
THE MTNS AS WE GET SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW BUT IT
DOESN`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTORMS. MOST AREA HIGHS EXPECTED
TO TUMBLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FRI FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2 WEEKS.
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD CERTAINLY BE EVEN COOLER IF IT
WEREN`T FOR SST`S THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMER SST`S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND EVEN MORE UNPREDICTABLE MARINE LYR BEHAVIOR THAN
USUAL, BUT CERTAINLY EARLIER CLEARING THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DEEP MARINE LYR.

THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO FILL SAT AS THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER MARINE LYR DEPTH.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS AGREE ON THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST SUNDAY FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING AND MARINE LYR SHRINKAGE.
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
BIG TIME AWAY FROM THE HUGE 600+DM HIGH OVER NRN CA TO A RATHER DEEP
TROF ACROSS THE PAC NW. EVEN THE 5 WAVE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, BUT GIVEN
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
CHANGE I`M INCLINED TO GO ALONG WITH IT. WITH THIS IN MIND MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S A FAR CRY FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE
AN EVEN HOTTER HEAT WAVE THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED AND I WOULD
NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS FLIP BACK TO THAT
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...17/2355Z...GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THU FOR
ALL THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT MOST OF THESE AIRFIELDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM 03Z THIS EVENING AT KSMX TO 17Z THU AT
KSBA...ALTHO THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FOR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AT KSBA.
ALSO...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS ESPECIALLY S OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT THU
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AIRFIELDS WHICH MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...BUT SHOULD LINGER THRU MUCH THE THU AFTERNOON AT KOXR...KLAX
AND KLGB. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TONIGHT AT KSBA
DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. FOR KPMD AND KWJF...HI
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THU...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY THU AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THU. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 10Z THEN LINGER THRU
22Z BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THU EVENING. THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
SCATTER OUT AT ALL ON THU.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THU. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 12Z THEN LINGER THRU
22Z. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...17/215 PM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/215 PM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER
TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX)
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 172121
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE
SANTA BARBARA AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...TEMPS TODAY TRENDING COOLER BY 4-8 DEGREES
ON AVERAGE AS GRADIENTS TREND ONSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF.
CONVECTION GETTING A SLOWER START TODAY BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN LA COUNTY. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING GIVEN THAT WE ARE SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT BUT
STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THE CONCERN WILL BE TO OUR EAST WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER HOT SUNDOWNER FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALREADY GETTING SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR GAVIOTA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE
AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER SRN CA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND CAUSE THE MARINE
LYR TO DEEPEN QUITE A BIT. N OF PT CONCEPTION IT SHOULD DEEPEN UP
OVER 2000 FT WITH CLOUDS SPILLING WELL INTO INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO BRING
ACTUAL RAIN, BUT THE DEEPENING MARINE LYR COULD SPIT OUT SOME
DRIZZLE UP NORTH EARLY THU. FURTHER SOUTH WE`RE EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS
TO START FORMING OVER THE BIGHT TONIGHT AND PUSH ONSHORE LATE AND
INTO THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS THU MORNING. THE BIG ONSHORE PUSH WILL
BRING CONSIDERABLE COOLING TO ALL AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS
WHERE HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE LOW 100S TODAY TO THE MID 80S THU IN
MANY AREAS.

FURTHER COOLING AND MARINE LYR DEEPENING (ESPECIALLY S OF PT
CONCEPTION) FRIDAY AS THE TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WILL SHIFT TO LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRI AS THE
MARINE LYR LIKELY SHOOTS UP OVER 2500` AND GETS CLOSE TO THE LOWER
COASTAL SLOPES. WILL PROBABLY GET SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER
THE MTNS AS WE GET SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW BUT IT
DOESN`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTORMS. MOST AREA HIGHS EXPECTED
TO TUMBLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FRI FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2 WEEKS.
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD CERTAINLY BE EVEN COOLER IF IT
WEREN`T FOR SST`S THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMER SST`S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND EVEN MORE UNPREDICTABLE MARINE LYR BEHAVIOR THAN
USUAL, BUT CERTAINLY EARLIER CLEARING THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DEEP MARINE LYR.

THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO FILL SAT AS THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER MARINE LYR DEPTH.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS AGREE ON THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST SUNDAY FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING AND MARINE LYR SHRINKAGE.
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
BIG TIME AWAY FROM THE HUGE 600+DM HIGH OVER NRN CA TO A RATHER DEEP
TROF ACROSS THE PAC NW. EVEN THE 5 WAVE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, BUT GIVEN
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
CHANGE I`M INCLINED TO GO ALONG WITH IT. WITH THIS IN MIND MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S A FAR CRY FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE
AN EVEN HOTTER HEAT WAVE THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED AND I WOULD
NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS FLIP BACK TO THAT
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL LLWS NEAR KSBA. NINETY PERCENT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
VLIFR-LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS AND AT KPRB.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...17/215 PM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/215 PM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER
TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 172121
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE
SANTA BARBARA AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...TEMPS TODAY TRENDING COOLER BY 4-8 DEGREES
ON AVERAGE AS GRADIENTS TREND ONSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF.
CONVECTION GETTING A SLOWER START TODAY BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN LA COUNTY. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING GIVEN THAT WE ARE SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT BUT
STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THE CONCERN WILL BE TO OUR EAST WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER HOT SUNDOWNER FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALREADY GETTING SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR GAVIOTA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE
AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER SRN CA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND CAUSE THE MARINE
LYR TO DEEPEN QUITE A BIT. N OF PT CONCEPTION IT SHOULD DEEPEN UP
OVER 2000 FT WITH CLOUDS SPILLING WELL INTO INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO BRING
ACTUAL RAIN, BUT THE DEEPENING MARINE LYR COULD SPIT OUT SOME
DRIZZLE UP NORTH EARLY THU. FURTHER SOUTH WE`RE EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS
TO START FORMING OVER THE BIGHT TONIGHT AND PUSH ONSHORE LATE AND
INTO THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS THU MORNING. THE BIG ONSHORE PUSH WILL
BRING CONSIDERABLE COOLING TO ALL AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS
WHERE HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE LOW 100S TODAY TO THE MID 80S THU IN
MANY AREAS.

FURTHER COOLING AND MARINE LYR DEEPENING (ESPECIALLY S OF PT
CONCEPTION) FRIDAY AS THE TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WILL SHIFT TO LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRI AS THE
MARINE LYR LIKELY SHOOTS UP OVER 2500` AND GETS CLOSE TO THE LOWER
COASTAL SLOPES. WILL PROBABLY GET SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER
THE MTNS AS WE GET SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW BUT IT
DOESN`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTORMS. MOST AREA HIGHS EXPECTED
TO TUMBLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FRI FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2 WEEKS.
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD CERTAINLY BE EVEN COOLER IF IT
WEREN`T FOR SST`S THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMER SST`S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND EVEN MORE UNPREDICTABLE MARINE LYR BEHAVIOR THAN
USUAL, BUT CERTAINLY EARLIER CLEARING THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DEEP MARINE LYR.

THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO FILL SAT AS THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER MARINE LYR DEPTH.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS AGREE ON THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST SUNDAY FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING AND MARINE LYR SHRINKAGE.
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
BIG TIME AWAY FROM THE HUGE 600+DM HIGH OVER NRN CA TO A RATHER DEEP
TROF ACROSS THE PAC NW. EVEN THE 5 WAVE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, BUT GIVEN
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
CHANGE I`M INCLINED TO GO ALONG WITH IT. WITH THIS IN MIND MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S A FAR CRY FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE
AN EVEN HOTTER HEAT WAVE THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED AND I WOULD
NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS FLIP BACK TO THAT
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL LLWS NEAR KSBA. NINETY PERCENT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
VLIFR-LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS AND AT KPRB.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...17/215 PM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/215 PM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER
TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 172026
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
125 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE
SANTA BARBARA AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...TEMPS TODAY TRENDING COOLER BY 4-8 DEGREES
ON AVERAGE AS GRADIENTS TREND ONSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF.
CONVECTION GETTING A SLOWER START TODAY BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN LA COUNTY. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING GIVEN THAT WE ARE SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT BUT
STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THE CONCERN WILL BE TO OUR EAST WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER HOT SUNDOWNER FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALREADY GETTING SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR GAVIOTA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE
AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER SRN CA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND CAUSE THE MARINE
LYR TO DEEPEN QUITE A BIT. N OF PT CONCEPTION IT SHOULD DEEPEN UP
OVER 2000 FT WITH CLOUDS SPILLING WELL INTO INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO BRING
ACTUAL RAIN, BUT THE DEEPENING MARINE LYR COULD SPIT OUT SOME
DRIZZLE UP NORTH EARLY THU. FURTHER SOUTH WE`RE EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS
TO START FORMING OVER THE BIGHT TONIGHT AND PUSH ONSHORE LATE AND
INTO THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS THU MORNING. THE BIG ONSHORE PUSH WILL
BRING CONSIDERABLE COOLING TO ALL AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS
WHERE HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE LOW 100S TODAY TO THE MID 80S THU IN
MANY AREAS.

FURTHER COOLING AND MARINE LYR DEEPENING (ESPECIALLY S OF PT
CONCEPTION) FRIDAY AS THE TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WILL SHIFT TO LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRI AS THE
MARINE LYR LIKELY SHOOTS UP OVER 2500` AND GETS CLOSE TO THE LOWER
COASTAL SLOPES. WILL PROBABLY GET SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER
THE MTNS AS WE GET SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW BUT IT
DOESN`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTORMS. MOST AREA HIGHS EXPECTED
TO TUMBLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FRI FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2 WEEKS.
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD CERTAINLY BE EVEN COOLER IF IT
WEREN`T FOR SST`S THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMER SST`S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND EVEN MORE UNPREDICTABLE MARINE LYR BEHAVIOR THAN
USUAL, BUT CERTAINLY EARLIER CLEARING THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DEEP MARINE LYR.

THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO FILL SAT AS THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER MARINE LYR DEPTH.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS AGREE ON THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST SUNDAY FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING AND MARINE LYR SHRINKAGE.
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
BIG TIME AWAY FROM THE HUGE 600+DM HIGH OVER NRN CA TO A RATHER DEEP
TROF ACROSS THE PAC NW. EVEN THE 5 WAVE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, BUT GIVEN
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
CHANGE I`M INCLINED TO GO ALONG WITH IT. WITH THIS IN MIND MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S A FAR CRY FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE
AN EVEN HOTTER HEAT WAVE THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED AND I WOULD
NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS FLIP BACK TO THAT
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL LLWS NEAR KSBA. NINETY PERCENT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
VLIFR-LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS AND AT KPRB.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...17/830 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/830 AM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 172026
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
125 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE
SANTA BARBARA AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...TEMPS TODAY TRENDING COOLER BY 4-8 DEGREES
ON AVERAGE AS GRADIENTS TREND ONSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF.
CONVECTION GETTING A SLOWER START TODAY BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN LA COUNTY. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING GIVEN THAT WE ARE SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT BUT
STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THE CONCERN WILL BE TO OUR EAST WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER HOT SUNDOWNER FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALREADY GETTING SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR GAVIOTA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE
AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER SRN CA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND CAUSE THE MARINE
LYR TO DEEPEN QUITE A BIT. N OF PT CONCEPTION IT SHOULD DEEPEN UP
OVER 2000 FT WITH CLOUDS SPILLING WELL INTO INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO BRING
ACTUAL RAIN, BUT THE DEEPENING MARINE LYR COULD SPIT OUT SOME
DRIZZLE UP NORTH EARLY THU. FURTHER SOUTH WE`RE EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS
TO START FORMING OVER THE BIGHT TONIGHT AND PUSH ONSHORE LATE AND
INTO THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS THU MORNING. THE BIG ONSHORE PUSH WILL
BRING CONSIDERABLE COOLING TO ALL AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS
WHERE HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE LOW 100S TODAY TO THE MID 80S THU IN
MANY AREAS.

FURTHER COOLING AND MARINE LYR DEEPENING (ESPECIALLY S OF PT
CONCEPTION) FRIDAY AS THE TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WILL SHIFT TO LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRI AS THE
MARINE LYR LIKELY SHOOTS UP OVER 2500` AND GETS CLOSE TO THE LOWER
COASTAL SLOPES. WILL PROBABLY GET SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER
THE MTNS AS WE GET SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW BUT IT
DOESN`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTORMS. MOST AREA HIGHS EXPECTED
TO TUMBLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FRI FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2 WEEKS.
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD CERTAINLY BE EVEN COOLER IF IT
WEREN`T FOR SST`S THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMER SST`S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND EVEN MORE UNPREDICTABLE MARINE LYR BEHAVIOR THAN
USUAL, BUT CERTAINLY EARLIER CLEARING THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DEEP MARINE LYR.

THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO FILL SAT AS THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER MARINE LYR DEPTH.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS AGREE ON THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST SUNDAY FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING AND MARINE LYR SHRINKAGE.
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
BIG TIME AWAY FROM THE HUGE 600+DM HIGH OVER NRN CA TO A RATHER DEEP
TROF ACROSS THE PAC NW. EVEN THE 5 WAVE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, BUT GIVEN
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
CHANGE I`M INCLINED TO GO ALONG WITH IT. WITH THIS IN MIND MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S A FAR CRY FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE
AN EVEN HOTTER HEAT WAVE THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED AND I WOULD
NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS FLIP BACK TO THAT
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL LLWS NEAR KSBA. NINETY PERCENT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
VLIFR-LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS AND AT KPRB.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...17/830 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/830 AM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 171805
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TEMPS OFF TO THE RACES AGAIN TODAY AFTER A
VERY WARM START AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIDN`T DROP BELOW 80 IN SOME
PLACES. GRADIENTS, THOUGH STILL 1.5MB OFFSHORE, ARE TRENDING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY ONSHORE AND EVEN THE TREND OF THE TREND IS POSITIVE MEANING
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY.
BASIN PROFILERS, WHILE WARMER IN THE LOWEST 500` OR SO, ARE SHOWING
A COOLING TREND ALOFT WHICH IS A GOOD SIGN. SO WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 3-6 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. STILL HOT, BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT,
AND PROBABLY NO THREAT TO RECORDS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY BE
SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER SPIKE IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING TEMPS WITH A REPEAT OF SUNDOWNERS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN UNDERDOING THE GRADIENT AND NORTHERLY FLOW EACH OF THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS AND PROBABLY IS AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING. SO WILL LIKELY BE
PUTTING OUT ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO HIGH 80S AND POSSIBLY LOW TO
MID 90S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS ARE
NOTICABLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH STABILITY PARAMETERS TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY, AND WHILE 850 DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THAT 10-12 RANGE
ACROSS EASTERN LA COUNTY, THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS JUST AREN`T
IDEAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT INVERSION RIGHT AROUND 15000`
WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE AVAILABLE ENERGY AND LIKELY STALL
DEVELOPMENT. LI`S STAY ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. K INDICES ARE
ONLY IN THE MID 30S AFTER BEING IN THE LOW 40S YESTERDAY. AND
STEERING FLOW TODAY HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WHICH MEANS WE`RE
PULLING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE TROF TO THE WEST. SO WHILE THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO, I THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IS VERY SMALL
AND CONFINED TO EASTERN LA COUNTY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE UP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND EVALUATE WHETHER ONE IS STILL NEEDED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE NLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME STRATUS COULD EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS...SKIES MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING NEAR THE COAST ON THU...ESPECIALLY N OF
PT CONCEPTION...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE DYING FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. WITH CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN MORE
THAN 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED TODAY IN SOME AREAS.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST OF CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.  THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FRI MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE MAY BE ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 4TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES ONCE
AGAIN. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
INTO CENTRAL CA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY...AND A REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ON TUE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...AND IF LOW OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL LLWS NEAR KSBA. NINETY PERCENT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
VLIFR-LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS AND AT KPRB.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...17/830 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/830 AM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 171805
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TEMPS OFF TO THE RACES AGAIN TODAY AFTER A
VERY WARM START AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIDN`T DROP BELOW 80 IN SOME
PLACES. GRADIENTS, THOUGH STILL 1.5MB OFFSHORE, ARE TRENDING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY ONSHORE AND EVEN THE TREND OF THE TREND IS POSITIVE MEANING
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY.
BASIN PROFILERS, WHILE WARMER IN THE LOWEST 500` OR SO, ARE SHOWING
A COOLING TREND ALOFT WHICH IS A GOOD SIGN. SO WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 3-6 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. STILL HOT, BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT,
AND PROBABLY NO THREAT TO RECORDS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY BE
SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER SPIKE IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING TEMPS WITH A REPEAT OF SUNDOWNERS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN UNDERDOING THE GRADIENT AND NORTHERLY FLOW EACH OF THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS AND PROBABLY IS AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING. SO WILL LIKELY BE
PUTTING OUT ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO HIGH 80S AND POSSIBLY LOW TO
MID 90S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS ARE
NOTICABLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH STABILITY PARAMETERS TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY, AND WHILE 850 DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THAT 10-12 RANGE
ACROSS EASTERN LA COUNTY, THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS JUST AREN`T
IDEAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT INVERSION RIGHT AROUND 15000`
WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE AVAILABLE ENERGY AND LIKELY STALL
DEVELOPMENT. LI`S STAY ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. K INDICES ARE
ONLY IN THE MID 30S AFTER BEING IN THE LOW 40S YESTERDAY. AND
STEERING FLOW TODAY HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WHICH MEANS WE`RE
PULLING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE TROF TO THE WEST. SO WHILE THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO, I THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IS VERY SMALL
AND CONFINED TO EASTERN LA COUNTY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE UP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND EVALUATE WHETHER ONE IS STILL NEEDED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE NLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME STRATUS COULD EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS...SKIES MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING NEAR THE COAST ON THU...ESPECIALLY N OF
PT CONCEPTION...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE DYING FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. WITH CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN MORE
THAN 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED TODAY IN SOME AREAS.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST OF CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.  THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FRI MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE MAY BE ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 4TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES ONCE
AGAIN. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
INTO CENTRAL CA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY...AND A REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ON TUE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...AND IF LOW OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL LLWS NEAR KSBA. NINETY PERCENT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
VLIFR-LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS AND AT KPRB.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...17/830 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/830 AM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 171612
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TEMPS OFF TO THE RACES AGAIN TODAY AFTER A
VERY WARM START AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIDN`T DROP BELOW 80 IN SOME
PLACES. GRADIENTS, THOUGH STILL 1.5MB OFFSHORE, ARE TRENDING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY ONSHORE AND EVEN THE TREND OF THE TREND IS POSITIVE MEANING
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY.
BASIN PROFILERS, WHILE WARMER IN THE LOWEST 500` OR SO, ARE SHOWING
A COOLING TREND ALOFT WHICH IS A GOOD SIGN. SO WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 3-6 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. STILL HOT, BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT,
AND PROBABLY NO THREAT TO RECORDS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY BE
SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER SPIKE IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING TEMPS WITH A REPEAT OF SUNDOWNERS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN UNDERDOING THE GRADIENT AND NORTHERLY FLOW EACH OF THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS AND PROBABLY IS AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING. SO WILL LIKELY BE
PUTTING OUT ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO HIGH 80S AND POSSIBLY LOW TO
MID 90S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS ARE
NOTICABLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH STABILITY PARAMETERS TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY, AND WHILE 850 DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THAT 10-12 RANGE
ACROSS EASTERN LA COUNTY, THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS JUST AREN`T
IDEAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT INVERSION RIGHT AROUND 15000`
WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE AVAILABLE ENERGY AND LIKELY STALL
DEVELOPMENT. LI`S STAY ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. K INDICES ARE
ONLY IN THE MID 30S AFTER BEING IN THE LOW 40S YESTERDAY. AND
STEERING FLOW TODAY HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WHICH MEANS WE`RE
PULLING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE TROF TO THE WEST. SO WHILE THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO, I THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IS VERY SMALL
AND CONFINED TO EASTERN LA COUNTY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE UP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND EVALUATE WHETHER ONE IS STILL NEEDED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE NLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME STRATUS COULD EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS...SKIES MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING NEAR THE COAST ON THU...ESPECIALLY N OF
PT CONCEPTION...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE DYING FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. WITH CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN MORE
THAN 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED TODAY IN SOME AREAS.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST OF CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.  THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FRI MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE MAY BE ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 4TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES ONCE
AGAIN. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
INTO CENTRAL CA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY...AND A REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ON TUE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...AND IF LOW OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.


&&

.AVIATION...17/1150Z.
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF AS KSMX/KSBP REMAIN CLEAR BUT COULD GO
LIFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS FOR
CENTRAL COAST BETWEEN 13Z-16Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z KPRB TAF.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR RETURN OF STRATUS AFTER 04Z AS IFR CIGS WILL BE
LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. LESS
LIKELY FOR KSBA DUE TO SUNDOWNER WINDS BETWEEN 22Z-07Z. BUT 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z THU MORNING AT KSBA.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...17/830 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/830 AM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...CK
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 171612
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TEMPS OFF TO THE RACES AGAIN TODAY AFTER A
VERY WARM START AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIDN`T DROP BELOW 80 IN SOME
PLACES. GRADIENTS, THOUGH STILL 1.5MB OFFSHORE, ARE TRENDING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY ONSHORE AND EVEN THE TREND OF THE TREND IS POSITIVE MEANING
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY.
BASIN PROFILERS, WHILE WARMER IN THE LOWEST 500` OR SO, ARE SHOWING
A COOLING TREND ALOFT WHICH IS A GOOD SIGN. SO WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 3-6 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. STILL HOT, BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT,
AND PROBABLY NO THREAT TO RECORDS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY BE
SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER SPIKE IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING TEMPS WITH A REPEAT OF SUNDOWNERS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN UNDERDOING THE GRADIENT AND NORTHERLY FLOW EACH OF THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS AND PROBABLY IS AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING. SO WILL LIKELY BE
PUTTING OUT ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO HIGH 80S AND POSSIBLY LOW TO
MID 90S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS ARE
NOTICABLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH STABILITY PARAMETERS TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY, AND WHILE 850 DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THAT 10-12 RANGE
ACROSS EASTERN LA COUNTY, THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS JUST AREN`T
IDEAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT INVERSION RIGHT AROUND 15000`
WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE AVAILABLE ENERGY AND LIKELY STALL
DEVELOPMENT. LI`S STAY ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. K INDICES ARE
ONLY IN THE MID 30S AFTER BEING IN THE LOW 40S YESTERDAY. AND
STEERING FLOW TODAY HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WHICH MEANS WE`RE
PULLING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE TROF TO THE WEST. SO WHILE THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO, I THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IS VERY SMALL
AND CONFINED TO EASTERN LA COUNTY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE UP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND EVALUATE WHETHER ONE IS STILL NEEDED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE NLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME STRATUS COULD EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS...SKIES MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING NEAR THE COAST ON THU...ESPECIALLY N OF
PT CONCEPTION...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE DYING FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. WITH CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN MORE
THAN 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED TODAY IN SOME AREAS.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST OF CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.  THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FRI MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE MAY BE ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 4TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES ONCE
AGAIN. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
INTO CENTRAL CA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY...AND A REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ON TUE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...AND IF LOW OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.


&&

.AVIATION...17/1150Z.
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF AS KSMX/KSBP REMAIN CLEAR BUT COULD GO
LIFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS FOR
CENTRAL COAST BETWEEN 13Z-16Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z KPRB TAF.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR RETURN OF STRATUS AFTER 04Z AS IFR CIGS WILL BE
LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. LESS
LIKELY FOR KSBA DUE TO SUNDOWNER WINDS BETWEEN 22Z-07Z. BUT 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z THU MORNING AT KSBA.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...17/830 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/830 AM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...CK
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 171541
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
840 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND WILL LIKELY PUSH
INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. THERE WILL BE LOCAL
DENSE FOG...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. GUSTY
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY...SO THE WIND ADVISORY
AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WERE STILL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING BUT WILL TURN ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3 MB MORE ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON THAN THEY WERE ON TUESDAY. WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES FALLING ACROSS THE REGION...AND TEMPS AT 950 MB FORECAST
TO BE 3 TO 4 C LOWER THAN ON TUE...THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TO START...TEMPS WILL LIKELY SOAR QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...SO MAX TEMPS MAY STILL REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERALL...THOUGH...TODAY SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN IT WAS ON TUE.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
WITH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...ANY STORM WOULD BE VERY SLOW MOVING...RAISING THE
SPECTER OF FLASH FLOODING. THE WRF SHOWS DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY...AND
THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. IT ALSO SHOWS A
TONGUE OF HIGH 850 MB DEW POINTS OF 12 TO 15C ACROSS L.A. COUNTY...
AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE MTNS SUPPORT THIS. WITH THE HIGH 850 MB DEW
POINT LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...BLV THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE MTNS OF L.A. COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...NOTING THAT THE
FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. THE GFS IS QUITE A
BIT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CONVECTIVE THREAT.
HOWEVER...ITS 850 MB DEW POINTS/MOISTURE LOOK TO BE TOO LOW...AND
IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THEREFORE...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WRF FOR THIS FORECAST.

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE NLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME STRATUS COULD EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS...SKIES MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING NEAR THE COAST ON THU...ESPECIALLY N OF
PT CONCEPTION...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE DYING FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. WITH CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN MORE
THAN 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED TODAY IN SOME AREAS.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST OF CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.  THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FRI MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE MAY BE ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 4TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES ONCE
AGAIN. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
INTO CENTRAL CA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY...AND A REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ON TUE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...AND IF LOW OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.


&&

.AVIATION...17/1150Z.
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF AS KSMX/KSBP REMAIN CLEAR BUT COULD GO
LIFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS FOR
CENTRAL COAST BETWEEN 13Z-16Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z KPRB TAF.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR RETURN OF STRATUS AFTER 04Z AS IFR CIGS WILL BE
LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. LESS
LIKELY FOR KSBA DUE TO SUNDOWNER WINDS BETWEEN 22Z-07Z. BUT 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z THU MORNING AT KSBA.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...17/830 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/830 AM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...CK
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 171541
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
840 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND WILL LIKELY PUSH
INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. THERE WILL BE LOCAL
DENSE FOG...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. GUSTY
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY...SO THE WIND ADVISORY
AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WERE STILL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING BUT WILL TURN ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3 MB MORE ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON THAN THEY WERE ON TUESDAY. WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES FALLING ACROSS THE REGION...AND TEMPS AT 950 MB FORECAST
TO BE 3 TO 4 C LOWER THAN ON TUE...THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TO START...TEMPS WILL LIKELY SOAR QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...SO MAX TEMPS MAY STILL REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERALL...THOUGH...TODAY SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN IT WAS ON TUE.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
WITH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...ANY STORM WOULD BE VERY SLOW MOVING...RAISING THE
SPECTER OF FLASH FLOODING. THE WRF SHOWS DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY...AND
THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. IT ALSO SHOWS A
TONGUE OF HIGH 850 MB DEW POINTS OF 12 TO 15C ACROSS L.A. COUNTY...
AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE MTNS SUPPORT THIS. WITH THE HIGH 850 MB DEW
POINT LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...BLV THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE MTNS OF L.A. COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...NOTING THAT THE
FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. THE GFS IS QUITE A
BIT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CONVECTIVE THREAT.
HOWEVER...ITS 850 MB DEW POINTS/MOISTURE LOOK TO BE TOO LOW...AND
IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THEREFORE...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WRF FOR THIS FORECAST.

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE NLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME STRATUS COULD EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS...SKIES MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING NEAR THE COAST ON THU...ESPECIALLY N OF
PT CONCEPTION...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE DYING FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. WITH CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN MORE
THAN 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED TODAY IN SOME AREAS.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST OF CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.  THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FRI MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE MAY BE ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 4TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES ONCE
AGAIN. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
INTO CENTRAL CA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY...AND A REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ON TUE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...AND IF LOW OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.


&&

.AVIATION...17/1150Z.
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF AS KSMX/KSBP REMAIN CLEAR BUT COULD GO
LIFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS FOR
CENTRAL COAST BETWEEN 13Z-16Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z KPRB TAF.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR RETURN OF STRATUS AFTER 04Z AS IFR CIGS WILL BE
LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. LESS
LIKELY FOR KSBA DUE TO SUNDOWNER WINDS BETWEEN 22Z-07Z. BUT 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z THU MORNING AT KSBA.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...17/830 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/830 AM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...CK
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 171310
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
515 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...MARINE AND BEACH DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND WILL LIKELY PUSH
INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. THERE WILL BE LOCAL
DENSE FOG...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. GUSTY
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY...SO THE WIND ADVISORY
AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WERE STILL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING BUT WILL TURN ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3 MB MORE ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON THAN THEY WERE ON TUESDAY. WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES FALLING ACROSS THE REGION...AND TEMPS AT 950 MB FORECAST
TO BE 3 TO 4 C LOWER THAN ON TUE...THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TO START...TEMPS WILL LIKELY SOAR QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...SO MAX TEMPS MAY STILL REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERALL...THOUGH...TODAY SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN IT WAS ON TUE.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
WITH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...ANY STORM WOULD BE VERY SLOW MOVING...RAISING THE
SPECTER OF FLASH FLOODING. THE WRF SHOWS DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY...AND
THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. IT ALSO SHOWS A
TONGUE OF HIGH 850 MB DEW POINTS OF 12 TO 15C ACROSS L.A. COUNTY...
AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE MTNS SUPPORT THIS. WITH THE HIGH 850 MB DEW
POINT LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...BLV THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE MTNS OF L.A. COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...NOTING THAT THE
FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. THE GFS IS QUITE A
BIT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CONVECTIVE THREAT.
HOWEVER...ITS 850 MB DEW POINTS/MOISTURE LOOK TO BE TOO LOW...AND
IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THEREFORE...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WRF FOR THIS FORECAST.

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE NLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME STRATUS COULD EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS...SKIES MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING NEAR THE COAST ON THU...ESPECIALLY N OF
PT CONCEPTION...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE DYING FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. WITH CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN MORE
THAN 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED TODAY IN SOME AREAS.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST OF CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.  THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FRI MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE MAY BE ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 4TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES ONCE
AGAIN. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
INTO CENTRAL CA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY...AND A REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ON TUE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...AND IF LOW OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.


&&

.AVIATION...17/1150Z.
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF AS KSMX/KSBP REMAIN CLEAR BUT COULD GO
LIFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS FOR
CENTRAL COAST BETWEEN 13Z-16Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z KPRB TAF.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR RETURN OF STRATUS AFTER 04Z AS IFR CIGS WILL BE
LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. LESS
LIKELY FOR KSBA DUE TO SUNDOWNER WINDS BETWEEN 22Z-07Z. BUT 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z THU MORNING AT KSBA.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

17/445 AM

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR OUTER WATERS
FROM POINT POINT SAL AND AREAS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PZZ670 TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR PZZ673-676 FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL SEE LOCAL
NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER ISSUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...

17/445 AM

A LONG PERIOD (16-17+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. SWELL HEIGHT WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET...BUT WITH A LONG PERIOD...EXPECT SURF 2
TO 4 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 5 FEET ACROSS SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ODILE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 171310
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
515 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...MARINE AND BEACH DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND WILL LIKELY PUSH
INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. THERE WILL BE LOCAL
DENSE FOG...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. GUSTY
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY...SO THE WIND ADVISORY
AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WERE STILL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING BUT WILL TURN ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3 MB MORE ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON THAN THEY WERE ON TUESDAY. WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES FALLING ACROSS THE REGION...AND TEMPS AT 950 MB FORECAST
TO BE 3 TO 4 C LOWER THAN ON TUE...THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TO START...TEMPS WILL LIKELY SOAR QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...SO MAX TEMPS MAY STILL REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERALL...THOUGH...TODAY SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN IT WAS ON TUE.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
WITH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...ANY STORM WOULD BE VERY SLOW MOVING...RAISING THE
SPECTER OF FLASH FLOODING. THE WRF SHOWS DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY...AND
THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. IT ALSO SHOWS A
TONGUE OF HIGH 850 MB DEW POINTS OF 12 TO 15C ACROSS L.A. COUNTY...
AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE MTNS SUPPORT THIS. WITH THE HIGH 850 MB DEW
POINT LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...BLV THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE MTNS OF L.A. COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...NOTING THAT THE
FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. THE GFS IS QUITE A
BIT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CONVECTIVE THREAT.
HOWEVER...ITS 850 MB DEW POINTS/MOISTURE LOOK TO BE TOO LOW...AND
IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THEREFORE...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WRF FOR THIS FORECAST.

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE NLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME STRATUS COULD EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS...SKIES MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING NEAR THE COAST ON THU...ESPECIALLY N OF
PT CONCEPTION...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE DYING FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. WITH CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN MORE
THAN 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED TODAY IN SOME AREAS.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST OF CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.  THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FRI MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE MAY BE ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 4TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES ONCE
AGAIN. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
INTO CENTRAL CA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY...AND A REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ON TUE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...AND IF LOW OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.


&&

.AVIATION...17/1150Z.
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF AS KSMX/KSBP REMAIN CLEAR BUT COULD GO
LIFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS FOR
CENTRAL COAST BETWEEN 13Z-16Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z KPRB TAF.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR RETURN OF STRATUS AFTER 04Z AS IFR CIGS WILL BE
LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. LESS
LIKELY FOR KSBA DUE TO SUNDOWNER WINDS BETWEEN 22Z-07Z. BUT 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z THU MORNING AT KSBA.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

17/445 AM

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR OUTER WATERS
FROM POINT POINT SAL AND AREAS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PZZ670 TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR PZZ673-676 FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL SEE LOCAL
NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER ISSUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...

17/445 AM

A LONG PERIOD (16-17+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. SWELL HEIGHT WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET...BUT WITH A LONG PERIOD...EXPECT SURF 2
TO 4 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 5 FEET ACROSS SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ODILE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 171211
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
515 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...MARINE AND BEACH DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND WILL LIKELY PUSH
INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY BY MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE LOCAL DENSE
FOG...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. GUSTY WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY...SO WIND THE WIND ADVISORY AND THE
FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE
STILL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING BUT WILL TURN ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3 MB MORE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON THAN THEY WERE ON TUESDAY. WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
FALLING ACROSS THE REGION...AND TEMPS AT 950 MB FORECAST TO BE
3 TO 4 C LOWER THAN ON TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF
COOLING TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO START...TEMPS WILL LIKELY SOAR QUICKLY THIS
MORNING...SO MAX TEMPS MAY STILL REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN THE
WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERALL...THOUGH...TODAY SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN IT WAS ON TUE.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
WITH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...ANY STORM WOULD BE VERY SLOW MOVING...RAISING THE
SPECTER OF FLASH FLOODING. THE WRF SHOWS DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY...AND
THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. IT ALSO SHOWS A
TONGUE OF HIGH 850 MB DEW POINTS OF 12 TO 15C ACROSS L.A. COUNTY...
AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE MTNS SUPPORT THIS. WITH THE HIGH 850 MB DEW
POINT LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...BLV THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE MTNS OF L.A. COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...NOTING THAT THE
FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. THE GFS IS QUITE A
BIT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CONVECTIVE THREAT.
HOWEVER...ITS 850 MB DEW POINTS/MOISTURE LOOK TO BE TOO LOW...AND
IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THEREFORE...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WRF FOR THIS FORECAST.

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE NLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME STRATUS COULD EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENT...SKIES MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING NEAR THE COAST ON THU...ESPECIALLY N OF
PT CONCEPTION...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE DYING FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. WITH CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN MORE
THAN 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED TODAY IN SOME AREAS.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST OF CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
FROM FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.  THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FRI
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW
LEVEL LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE MAY BE
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SINCE THE 4TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES ONCE
AGAIN. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
INTO CENTRAL CA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY...AND A REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ON TUE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...AND IF LOW OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.


&&

.AVIATION...17/0510Z.
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF AS KSMX/KSBP REMAIN CLEAR BUT COULD GO
LIFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS FOR
CENTRAL COAST BETWEEN 13Z-16Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z KPRB TAF.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR RETURN OF STRATUS AFTER 04Z AS IFR CIGS WILL BE
LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. LESS
LIKELY FOR KSBA DUE TO SUNDOWNER WINDS BETWEEN 22Z-07Z. BUT 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z THU MORNING AT KSBA.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

17/445 AM

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR OUTER WATERS
FROM POINT POINT SAL AND AREAS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PZZ670 TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR PZZ673-676 FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL SEE LOCAL
NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER ISSUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...

17/445 AM

A LONG PERIOD (16-17+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. SWELL HEIGHT WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET...BUT WITH A LONG PERIOD...EXPECT SURF 2
TO 4 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 5 FEET ACROSS SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ODILE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 171211
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
515 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...MARINE AND BEACH DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND WILL LIKELY PUSH
INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY BY MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE LOCAL DENSE
FOG...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. GUSTY WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY...SO WIND THE WIND ADVISORY AND THE
FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE
STILL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING BUT WILL TURN ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3 MB MORE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON THAN THEY WERE ON TUESDAY. WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
FALLING ACROSS THE REGION...AND TEMPS AT 950 MB FORECAST TO BE
3 TO 4 C LOWER THAN ON TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF
COOLING TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO START...TEMPS WILL LIKELY SOAR QUICKLY THIS
MORNING...SO MAX TEMPS MAY STILL REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN THE
WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERALL...THOUGH...TODAY SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN IT WAS ON TUE.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
WITH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...ANY STORM WOULD BE VERY SLOW MOVING...RAISING THE
SPECTER OF FLASH FLOODING. THE WRF SHOWS DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY...AND
THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. IT ALSO SHOWS A
TONGUE OF HIGH 850 MB DEW POINTS OF 12 TO 15C ACROSS L.A. COUNTY...
AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE MTNS SUPPORT THIS. WITH THE HIGH 850 MB DEW
POINT LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...BLV THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE MTNS OF L.A. COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...NOTING THAT THE
FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. THE GFS IS QUITE A
BIT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CONVECTIVE THREAT.
HOWEVER...ITS 850 MB DEW POINTS/MOISTURE LOOK TO BE TOO LOW...AND
IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THEREFORE...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WRF FOR THIS FORECAST.

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE NLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME STRATUS COULD EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENT...SKIES MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING NEAR THE COAST ON THU...ESPECIALLY N OF
PT CONCEPTION...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE DYING FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. WITH CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN MORE
THAN 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED TODAY IN SOME AREAS.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST OF CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
FROM FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.  THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FRI
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW
LEVEL LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE MAY BE
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SINCE THE 4TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES ONCE
AGAIN. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
INTO CENTRAL CA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY...AND A REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ON TUE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...AND IF LOW OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.


&&

.AVIATION...17/0510Z.
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF AS KSMX/KSBP REMAIN CLEAR BUT COULD GO
LIFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS FOR
CENTRAL COAST BETWEEN 13Z-16Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z KPRB TAF.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR RETURN OF STRATUS AFTER 04Z AS IFR CIGS WILL BE
LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. LESS
LIKELY FOR KSBA DUE TO SUNDOWNER WINDS BETWEEN 22Z-07Z. BUT 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z THU MORNING AT KSBA.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

17/445 AM

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR OUTER WATERS
FROM POINT POINT SAL AND AREAS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PZZ670 TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR PZZ673-676 FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL SEE LOCAL
NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER ISSUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...

17/445 AM

A LONG PERIOD (16-17+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. SWELL HEIGHT WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET...BUT WITH A LONG PERIOD...EXPECT SURF 2
TO 4 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 5 FEET ACROSS SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ODILE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 171159
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED MARINE AND BEACHES DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND WILL LIKELY PUSH
INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY BY MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE LOCAL DENSE
FOG...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. GUSTY WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY...SO WIND THE WIND ADVISORY AND THE
FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE
STILL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING BUT WILL TURN ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3 MB MORE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON THAN THEY WERE ON TUESDAY. WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
FALLING ACROSS THE REGION...AND TEMPS AT 950 MB FORECAST TO BE
3 TO 4 C LOWER THAN ON TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF
COOLING TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO START...TEMPS WILL LIKELY SOAR QUICKLY THIS
MORNING...SO MAX TEMPS MAY STILL REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN THE
WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERALL...THOUGH...TODAY SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN IT WAS ON TUE.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
WITH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...ANY STORM WOULD BE VERY SLOW MOVING...RAISING THE
SPECTER OF FLASH FLOODING. THE WRF SHOWS DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY...AND
THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. IT ALSO SHOWS A
TONGUE OF HIGH 850 MB DEW POINTS OF 12 TO 15C ACROSS L.A. COUNTY...
AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE MTNS SUPPORT THIS. WITH THE HIGH 850 MB DEW
POINT LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...BLV THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE MTNS OF L.A. COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...NOTING THAT THE
FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. THE GFS IS QUITE A
BIT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CONVECTIVE THREAT.
HOWEVER...ITS 850 MB DEW POINTS/MOISTURE LOOK TO BE TOO LOW...AND
IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THEREFORE...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WRF FOR THIS FORECAST.

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE NLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME STRATUS COULD EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENT...SKIES MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING NEAR THE COAST ON THU...ESPECIALLY N OF
PT CONCEPTION...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE DYING FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. WITH CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN MORE
THAN 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED TODAY IN SOME AREAS.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST OF CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
FROM FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.  THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FRI
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW
LEVEL LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE MAY BE
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SINCE THE 4TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES ONCE
AGAIN. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
INTO CENTRAL CA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY...AND A REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ON TUE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...AND IF LOW OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.


&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY WITH 12Z TAFS

&&

.MARINE...

17/445 AM

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR OUTER WATERS
FROM POINT POINT SAL AND AREAS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PZZ670 TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR PZZ673-676 FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL SEE LOCAL
NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER ISSUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...

17/445 AM

A LONG PERIOD (16-17+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. SWELL HEIGHT WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET...BUT WITH A LONG PERIOD...EXPECT SURF 2
TO 4 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 5 FEET ACROSS SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ODILE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 171159
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED MARINE AND BEACHES DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND WILL LIKELY PUSH
INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY BY MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE LOCAL DENSE
FOG...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. GUSTY WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY...SO WIND THE WIND ADVISORY AND THE
FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE
STILL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING BUT WILL TURN ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3 MB MORE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON THAN THEY WERE ON TUESDAY. WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
FALLING ACROSS THE REGION...AND TEMPS AT 950 MB FORECAST TO BE
3 TO 4 C LOWER THAN ON TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF
COOLING TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO START...TEMPS WILL LIKELY SOAR QUICKLY THIS
MORNING...SO MAX TEMPS MAY STILL REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN THE
WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERALL...THOUGH...TODAY SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN IT WAS ON TUE.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
WITH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...ANY STORM WOULD BE VERY SLOW MOVING...RAISING THE
SPECTER OF FLASH FLOODING. THE WRF SHOWS DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY...AND
THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. IT ALSO SHOWS A
TONGUE OF HIGH 850 MB DEW POINTS OF 12 TO 15C ACROSS L.A. COUNTY...
AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE MTNS SUPPORT THIS. WITH THE HIGH 850 MB DEW
POINT LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...BLV THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE MTNS OF L.A. COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...NOTING THAT THE
FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. THE GFS IS QUITE A
BIT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CONVECTIVE THREAT.
HOWEVER...ITS 850 MB DEW POINTS/MOISTURE LOOK TO BE TOO LOW...AND
IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THEREFORE...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WRF FOR THIS FORECAST.

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE NLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME STRATUS COULD EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENT...SKIES MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING NEAR THE COAST ON THU...ESPECIALLY N OF
PT CONCEPTION...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE DYING FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. WITH CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN MORE
THAN 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED TODAY IN SOME AREAS.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST OF CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
FROM FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.  THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FRI
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW
LEVEL LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE MAY BE
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SINCE THE 4TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES ONCE
AGAIN. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
INTO CENTRAL CA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY...AND A REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ON TUE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...AND IF LOW OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.


&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY WITH 12Z TAFS

&&

.MARINE...

17/445 AM

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR OUTER WATERS
FROM POINT POINT SAL AND AREAS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PZZ670 TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR PZZ673-676 FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL SEE LOCAL
NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER ISSUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...

17/445 AM

A LONG PERIOD (16-17+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. SWELL HEIGHT WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET...BUT WITH A LONG PERIOD...EXPECT SURF 2
TO 4 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 5 FEET ACROSS SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ODILE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 171051
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
301 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND WILL LIKELY PUSH
INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY BY MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE LOCAL DENSE
FOG...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. GUSTY WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY...SO WIND THE WIND ADVISORY AND THE
FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE
STILL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING BUT WILL TURN ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3 MB MORE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON THAN THEY WERE ON TUESDAY. WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
FALLING ACROSS THE REGION...AND TEMPS AT 950 MB FORECAST TO BE
3 TO 4 C LOWER THAN ON TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF
COOLING TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO START...TEMPS WILL LIKELY SOAR QUICKLY THIS
MORNING...SO MAX TEMPS MAY STILL REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN THE
WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERALL...THOUGH...TODAY SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN IT WAS ON TUE.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
WITH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...ANY STORM WOULD BE VERY SLOW MOVING...RAISING THE
SPECTER OF FLASH FLOODING. THE WRF SHOWS DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY...AND
THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. IT ALSO SHOWS A
TONGUE OF HIGH 850 MB DEW POINTS OF 12 TO 15C ACROSS L.A. COUNTY...
AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE MTNS SUPPORT THIS. WITH THE HIGH 850 MB DEW
POINT LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...BLV THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE MTNS OF L.A. COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...NOTING THAT THE
FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. THE GFS IS QUITE A
BIT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CONVECTIVE THREAT.
HOWEVER...ITS 850 MB DEW POINTS/MOISTURE LOOK TO BE TOO LOW...AND
IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THEREFORE...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WRF FOR THIS FORECAST.

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE NLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME STRATUS COULD EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENT...SKIES MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING NEAR THE COAST ON THU...ESPECIALLY N OF
PT CONCEPTION...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE DYING FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. WITH CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN MORE
THAN 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED TODAY IN SOME AREAS.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST OF CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
FROM FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.  THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FRI
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW
LEVEL LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE MAY BE
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SINCE THE 4TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES ONCE
AGAIN. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
INTO CENTRAL CA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY...AND A REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ON TUE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...AND IF LOW OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.


&&

.AVIATION...

16/1145Z

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE EVENING WITH LOCAL LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

16/300 AM

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL SEE LOCAL
NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CAK
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 171051
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
301 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND WILL LIKELY PUSH
INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY BY MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE LOCAL DENSE
FOG...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. GUSTY WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY...SO WIND THE WIND ADVISORY AND THE
FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE
STILL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING BUT WILL TURN ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3 MB MORE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON THAN THEY WERE ON TUESDAY. WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
FALLING ACROSS THE REGION...AND TEMPS AT 950 MB FORECAST TO BE
3 TO 4 C LOWER THAN ON TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF
COOLING TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO START...TEMPS WILL LIKELY SOAR QUICKLY THIS
MORNING...SO MAX TEMPS MAY STILL REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN THE
WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERALL...THOUGH...TODAY SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN IT WAS ON TUE.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
WITH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...ANY STORM WOULD BE VERY SLOW MOVING...RAISING THE
SPECTER OF FLASH FLOODING. THE WRF SHOWS DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY...AND
THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. IT ALSO SHOWS A
TONGUE OF HIGH 850 MB DEW POINTS OF 12 TO 15C ACROSS L.A. COUNTY...
AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE MTNS SUPPORT THIS. WITH THE HIGH 850 MB DEW
POINT LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...BLV THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS ERN L.A. COUNTY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE MTNS OF L.A. COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...NOTING THAT THE
FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. THE GFS IS QUITE A
BIT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CONVECTIVE THREAT.
HOWEVER...ITS 850 MB DEW POINTS/MOISTURE LOOK TO BE TOO LOW...AND
IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THEREFORE...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WRF FOR THIS FORECAST.

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE NLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME STRATUS COULD EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENT...SKIES MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING NEAR THE COAST ON THU...ESPECIALLY N OF
PT CONCEPTION...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE DYING FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. WITH CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN MORE
THAN 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED TODAY IN SOME AREAS.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST OF CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
FROM FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.  THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FRI
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW
LEVEL LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE MAY BE
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SINCE THE 4TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES ONCE
AGAIN. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
INTO CENTRAL CA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY...AND A REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ON TUE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...AND IF LOW OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.


&&

.AVIATION...

16/1145Z

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE EVENING WITH LOCAL LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

16/300 AM

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL SEE LOCAL
NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CAK
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 170522 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1020 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND STRONG ONSHORE SHOULD DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND AND OFFSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BRING A RETURN OF A HEATWAVE FOR THE AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. EXCEPT FOR KSBA-KSMX
AND KSBA-KBFL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE ALREADY ONSHORE OR TRENDING ONSHORE THIS EVENING. A
COOLER DAY IS SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY IF ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS REESTABLISH AS PROGGED. THE LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
INITIALIZED WELL AND COOL 950 MB TEMPERATURES BY 3-5 DEGREES
CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE COOLED ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS. DESERT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS
TEMPERATURES STUDIES INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR PALMDALE AND
LANCASTER NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR WEDNESDAY.

KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN NEAR -5 MB THIS
EVENING AND KSBA-KBFL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TRENDING STRONGLY
TOWARDS A -6 MB VALUE LATER TONIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY AND RED
FLAG WARNING MIGHT BE EXTENDED IF CONDITIONS AND WEATHER DATA POINT
TOWARDS THE SUNDOWNER WINDS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROF, PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA THU INTO EARLY FRI. MODELS DO SPIT OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS NRN SLO COUNTY THU BUT FOR NOW AM GOING TO
KEEP POPS BELOW 15% AND JUST GO WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO GO
ALONG WITH THE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE MARINE
LYR IS EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS 2500` DEEP. WITH THAT DEEPENING
AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH THE TROF THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED
DRIZZLE WITH 5-10 POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
BOTH SHOW THE LOW FILLING SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES, THEN
THE TROF LIFTING OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE BUILDING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO WE SHOULD
SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH LOWERING MARINE LYR DEPTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE BUILDING RIDGE TUE INTO WED SO WE
EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN HIGH TEMPS FOR ALL AREAS. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THE HEAT WAVE COMING FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WOULD EASILY EQUAL THE INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT ONE AND
VERY LIKELY EXCEED IT AS THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE
COMPONENT COUPLED WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT AND 950 TEMPS AROUND
37C WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE`RE SEEING NOW. SO
ENJOY THE COOLER WEATHER COMING THE NEXT 5 OR 6 DAYS BECAUSE NEXT
WEEK COULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...16/900 PM.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS...WHERE
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT IN WIND PRONE AREAS AND FOOTHILLS...WHILE TEMPERATURES
COULD SPIKE UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT OR DRY.

SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...17/0520Z.
VLIFR TO LIFR CONDS EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND POSSIBLY
IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING
WED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH WED EVENING...WITH SOME
MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE NEAR KLAX AND KLGB. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS
TO RETURN TO COASTAL SECTIONS WED EVENING.

GUSTY WINDS THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY WITH
LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR KSBA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN WED
EVENING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 PM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY SOUTH COAST.

&&

.BEACHES...16/900 PM.

THE LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...HALL/KJ
FIRE WEATHER...GOMBERG/HALL
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 170522 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1020 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND STRONG ONSHORE SHOULD DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND AND OFFSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BRING A RETURN OF A HEATWAVE FOR THE AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. EXCEPT FOR KSBA-KSMX
AND KSBA-KBFL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE ALREADY ONSHORE OR TRENDING ONSHORE THIS EVENING. A
COOLER DAY IS SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY IF ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS REESTABLISH AS PROGGED. THE LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
INITIALIZED WELL AND COOL 950 MB TEMPERATURES BY 3-5 DEGREES
CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE COOLED ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS. DESERT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS
TEMPERATURES STUDIES INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR PALMDALE AND
LANCASTER NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR WEDNESDAY.

KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN NEAR -5 MB THIS
EVENING AND KSBA-KBFL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TRENDING STRONGLY
TOWARDS A -6 MB VALUE LATER TONIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY AND RED
FLAG WARNING MIGHT BE EXTENDED IF CONDITIONS AND WEATHER DATA POINT
TOWARDS THE SUNDOWNER WINDS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROF, PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA THU INTO EARLY FRI. MODELS DO SPIT OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS NRN SLO COUNTY THU BUT FOR NOW AM GOING TO
KEEP POPS BELOW 15% AND JUST GO WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO GO
ALONG WITH THE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE MARINE
LYR IS EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS 2500` DEEP. WITH THAT DEEPENING
AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH THE TROF THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED
DRIZZLE WITH 5-10 POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
BOTH SHOW THE LOW FILLING SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES, THEN
THE TROF LIFTING OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE BUILDING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO WE SHOULD
SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH LOWERING MARINE LYR DEPTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE BUILDING RIDGE TUE INTO WED SO WE
EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN HIGH TEMPS FOR ALL AREAS. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THE HEAT WAVE COMING FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WOULD EASILY EQUAL THE INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT ONE AND
VERY LIKELY EXCEED IT AS THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE
COMPONENT COUPLED WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT AND 950 TEMPS AROUND
37C WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE`RE SEEING NOW. SO
ENJOY THE COOLER WEATHER COMING THE NEXT 5 OR 6 DAYS BECAUSE NEXT
WEEK COULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...16/900 PM.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS...WHERE
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT IN WIND PRONE AREAS AND FOOTHILLS...WHILE TEMPERATURES
COULD SPIKE UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT OR DRY.

SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...17/0520Z.
VLIFR TO LIFR CONDS EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND POSSIBLY
IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING
WED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH WED EVENING...WITH SOME
MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE NEAR KLAX AND KLGB. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS
TO RETURN TO COASTAL SECTIONS WED EVENING.

GUSTY WINDS THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY WITH
LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR KSBA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN WED
EVENING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 PM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY SOUTH COAST.

&&

.BEACHES...16/900 PM.

THE LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...HALL/KJ
FIRE WEATHER...GOMBERG/HALL
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 170401
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
901 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND STRONG ONSHORE SHOULD DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND AND OFFSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BRING A RETURN OF A HEATWAVE FOR THE AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. EXCEPT FOR KSBA-KSMX
AND KSBA-KBFL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE ALREADY ONSHORE OR TRENDING ONSHORE THIS EVENING. A
COOLER DAY IS SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY IF ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS REESTABLISH AS PROGGED. THE LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
INITIALIZED WELL AND COOL 950 MB TEMPERATURES BY 3-5 DEGREES
CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE COOLED ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS. DESERT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS
TEMPERATURES STUDIES INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR PALMDALE AND
LANCASTER NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR WEDNESDAY.

KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN NEAR -5 MB THIS
EVENING AND KSBA-KBFL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TRENDING STRONGLY
TOWARDS A -6 MB VALUE LATER TONIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY AND RED
FLAG WARNING MIGHT BE EXTENDED IF CONDITONS AND WEATHER DATA POINT
TOWARDS THE SUNDOWNER WINDS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROF, PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA THU INTO EARLY FRI. MODELS DO SPIT OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS NRN SLO COUNTY THU BUT FOR NOW AM GOING TO
KEEP POPS BELOW 15% AND JUST GO WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO GO
ALONG WITH THE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE MARINE
LYR IS EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS 2500` DEEP. WITH THAT DEEPENING
AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH THE TROF THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED
DRIZZLE WITH 5-10 POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
BOTH SHOW THE LOW FILLING SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES, THEN
THE TROF LIFTING OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE BUILDING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO WE SHOULD
SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH LOWERING MARINE LYR DEPTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE BUILDING RIDGE TUE INTO WED SO WE
EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN HIGH TEMPS FOR ALL AREAS. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THE HEAT WAVE COMING FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WOULD EASILY EQUAL THE INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT ONE AND
VERY LIKELY EXCEED IT AS THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE
COMPONENT COUPLED WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT AND 950 TEMPS AROUND
37C WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE`RE SEEING NOW. SO
ENJOY THE COOLER WEATHER COMING THE NEXT 5 OR 6 DAYS BECAUSE NEXT
WEEK COULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...16/900 PM.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS...WHERE
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT IN WIND PRONE AREAS AND FOOTHILLS...WHILE TEMPERATURES
COULD SPIKE UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT OR DRY.

SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0015Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z. THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z...THEN THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITION THROUGH 16Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 PM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY SOUTH COAST.

&&

.BEACHES...16/900 PM.

THE LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...HALL/KJ
FIRE WEATHER...GOMBERG/HALL
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 170401
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
901 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND STRONG ONSHORE SHOULD DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND AND OFFSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BRING A RETURN OF A HEATWAVE FOR THE AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. EXCEPT FOR KSBA-KSMX
AND KSBA-KBFL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE ALREADY ONSHORE OR TRENDING ONSHORE THIS EVENING. A
COOLER DAY IS SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY IF ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS REESTABLISH AS PROGGED. THE LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
INITIALIZED WELL AND COOL 950 MB TEMPERATURES BY 3-5 DEGREES
CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE COOLED ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS. DESERT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS
TEMPERATURES STUDIES INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR PALMDALE AND
LANCASTER NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR WEDNESDAY.

KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN NEAR -5 MB THIS
EVENING AND KSBA-KBFL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TRENDING STRONGLY
TOWARDS A -6 MB VALUE LATER TONIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY AND RED
FLAG WARNING MIGHT BE EXTENDED IF CONDITONS AND WEATHER DATA POINT
TOWARDS THE SUNDOWNER WINDS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROF, PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA THU INTO EARLY FRI. MODELS DO SPIT OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS NRN SLO COUNTY THU BUT FOR NOW AM GOING TO
KEEP POPS BELOW 15% AND JUST GO WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO GO
ALONG WITH THE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE MARINE
LYR IS EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS 2500` DEEP. WITH THAT DEEPENING
AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH THE TROF THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED
DRIZZLE WITH 5-10 POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
BOTH SHOW THE LOW FILLING SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES, THEN
THE TROF LIFTING OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE BUILDING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO WE SHOULD
SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH LOWERING MARINE LYR DEPTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE BUILDING RIDGE TUE INTO WED SO WE
EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN HIGH TEMPS FOR ALL AREAS. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THE HEAT WAVE COMING FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WOULD EASILY EQUAL THE INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT ONE AND
VERY LIKELY EXCEED IT AS THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE
COMPONENT COUPLED WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT AND 950 TEMPS AROUND
37C WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE`RE SEEING NOW. SO
ENJOY THE COOLER WEATHER COMING THE NEXT 5 OR 6 DAYS BECAUSE NEXT
WEEK COULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...16/900 PM.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS...WHERE
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT IN WIND PRONE AREAS AND FOOTHILLS...WHILE TEMPERATURES
COULD SPIKE UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT OR DRY.

SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0015Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z. THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z...THEN THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITION THROUGH 16Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 PM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY SOUTH COAST.

&&

.BEACHES...16/900 PM.

THE LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...HALL/KJ
FIRE WEATHER...GOMBERG/HALL
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 170401
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
901 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND STRONG ONSHORE SHOULD DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND AND OFFSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BRING A RETURN OF A HEATWAVE FOR THE AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. EXCEPT FOR KSBA-KSMX
AND KSBA-KBFL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE ALREADY ONSHORE OR TRENDING ONSHORE THIS EVENING. A
COOLER DAY IS SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY IF ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS REESTABLISH AS PROGGED. THE LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
INITIALIZED WELL AND COOL 950 MB TEMPERATURES BY 3-5 DEGREES
CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE COOLED ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS. DESERT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS
TEMPERATURES STUDIES INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR PALMDALE AND
LANCASTER NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR WEDNESDAY.

KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN NEAR -5 MB THIS
EVENING AND KSBA-KBFL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TRENDING STRONGLY
TOWARDS A -6 MB VALUE LATER TONIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY AND RED
FLAG WARNING MIGHT BE EXTENDED IF CONDITONS AND WEATHER DATA POINT
TOWARDS THE SUNDOWNER WINDS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROF, PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA THU INTO EARLY FRI. MODELS DO SPIT OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS NRN SLO COUNTY THU BUT FOR NOW AM GOING TO
KEEP POPS BELOW 15% AND JUST GO WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO GO
ALONG WITH THE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE MARINE
LYR IS EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS 2500` DEEP. WITH THAT DEEPENING
AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH THE TROF THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED
DRIZZLE WITH 5-10 POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
BOTH SHOW THE LOW FILLING SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES, THEN
THE TROF LIFTING OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE BUILDING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO WE SHOULD
SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH LOWERING MARINE LYR DEPTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE BUILDING RIDGE TUE INTO WED SO WE
EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN HIGH TEMPS FOR ALL AREAS. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THE HEAT WAVE COMING FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WOULD EASILY EQUAL THE INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT ONE AND
VERY LIKELY EXCEED IT AS THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE
COMPONENT COUPLED WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT AND 950 TEMPS AROUND
37C WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE`RE SEEING NOW. SO
ENJOY THE COOLER WEATHER COMING THE NEXT 5 OR 6 DAYS BECAUSE NEXT
WEEK COULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...16/900 PM.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS...WHERE
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT IN WIND PRONE AREAS AND FOOTHILLS...WHILE TEMPERATURES
COULD SPIKE UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT OR DRY.

SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0015Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z. THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z...THEN THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITION THROUGH 16Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 PM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY SOUTH COAST.

&&

.BEACHES...16/900 PM.

THE LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...HALL/KJ
FIRE WEATHER...GOMBERG/HALL
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 170401
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
901 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND STRONG ONSHORE SHOULD DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND AND OFFSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BRING A RETURN OF A HEATWAVE FOR THE AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. EXCEPT FOR KSBA-KSMX
AND KSBA-KBFL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE ALREADY ONSHORE OR TRENDING ONSHORE THIS EVENING. A
COOLER DAY IS SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY IF ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS REESTABLISH AS PROGGED. THE LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
INITIALIZED WELL AND COOL 950 MB TEMPERATURES BY 3-5 DEGREES
CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE COOLED ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS. DESERT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS
TEMPERATURES STUDIES INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR PALMDALE AND
LANCASTER NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR WEDNESDAY.

KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN NEAR -5 MB THIS
EVENING AND KSBA-KBFL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TRENDING STRONGLY
TOWARDS A -6 MB VALUE LATER TONIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY AND RED
FLAG WARNING MIGHT BE EXTENDED IF CONDITONS AND WEATHER DATA POINT
TOWARDS THE SUNDOWNER WINDS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROF, PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA THU INTO EARLY FRI. MODELS DO SPIT OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS NRN SLO COUNTY THU BUT FOR NOW AM GOING TO
KEEP POPS BELOW 15% AND JUST GO WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO GO
ALONG WITH THE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE MARINE
LYR IS EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS 2500` DEEP. WITH THAT DEEPENING
AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH THE TROF THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED
DRIZZLE WITH 5-10 POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
BOTH SHOW THE LOW FILLING SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES, THEN
THE TROF LIFTING OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE BUILDING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO WE SHOULD
SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH LOWERING MARINE LYR DEPTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE BUILDING RIDGE TUE INTO WED SO WE
EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN HIGH TEMPS FOR ALL AREAS. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THE HEAT WAVE COMING FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WOULD EASILY EQUAL THE INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT ONE AND
VERY LIKELY EXCEED IT AS THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE
COMPONENT COUPLED WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT AND 950 TEMPS AROUND
37C WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE`RE SEEING NOW. SO
ENJOY THE COOLER WEATHER COMING THE NEXT 5 OR 6 DAYS BECAUSE NEXT
WEEK COULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...16/900 PM.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS...WHERE
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT IN WIND PRONE AREAS AND FOOTHILLS...WHILE TEMPERATURES
COULD SPIKE UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT OR DRY.

SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0015Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z. THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z...THEN THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITION THROUGH 16Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 PM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY SOUTH COAST.

&&

.BEACHES...16/900 PM.

THE LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...HALL/KJ
FIRE WEATHER...GOMBERG/HALL
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 170015 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
515 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK AS A LOW ARRIVES TO COOL
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...ANOTHER DAY OF TIED OR BROKEN RECORDS AS
THE SOUTHLAND HEAT WAVE CONTINUES. HOWEVER, THE WRITING IS ON THE
WALL FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE TROF THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG 140W SHIFTS WEST AND
EVOLVES INTO A SEMI CUTOFF UPPER LOW. IT WILL STILL BE HOT WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE 2-4 DEGREES OF
COOLING WHILE COASTAL ZONES DROP 5-10. AS THE TROF DIGS AND HEIGHTS
TUMBLE THU INTO FRI HIGHS WILL DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES, BOTTOMING
OUT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S FOR THE COAST AND MID 70S TO
MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS, A GOOD 15-30 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AND
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 2 WEEKS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA THIS
EVENING, ENOUGH FOR A LOW END WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
THERE. IT WILL BE A VERY WARM SUNDOWNER WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROF, PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
THU INTO EARLY FRI. MODELS DO SPIT OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS
NRN SLO COUNTY THU BUT FOR NOW AM GOING TO KEEP POPS BELOW 15% AND
JUST GO WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO GO ALONG WITH THE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE MARINE LYR IS EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 2500` DEEP. WITH THAT DEEPENING AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH
THE TROF THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED DRIZZLE WITH 5-10 POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
BOTH SHOW THE LOW FILLING SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES, THEN
THE TROF LIFTING OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE BUILDING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO WE SHOULD
SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH LOWERING MARINE LYR DEPTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE BUILDING RIDGE TUE INTO WED SO WE
EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN HIGH TEMPS FOR ALL AREAS. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THE HEAT WAVE COMING FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WOULD EASILY EQUAL THE INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT ONE AND
VERY LIKELY EXCEED IT AS THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE
COMPONENT COUPLED WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT AND 950 TEMPS AROUND
37C WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE`RE SEEING NOW. SO
ENJOY THE COOLER WEATHER COMING THE NEXT 5 OR 6 DAYS BECAUSE NEXT
WEEK COULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...16/415 PM
ANOTHER ROUND OF EXTREME HEAT TODAY...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
RANGING BETWEEN 100 AND 110 DEGREES ACROSS INLAND AREAS. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES HAVE GENERALLY RANGED BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY FUELS. MOUNTAIN AREAS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES
TODAY...DUE TO THE VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. SOME MID LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL BRING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SAN GABRIELS
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS CONFINED AT THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE LOWER LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY
DRY...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR STORMS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS...WHERE GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND SANTA
YNEZ RANGE WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT IN WIND
PRONE AREAS AND FOOTHILLS...WHILE TEMPERATURES COULD SPIKE UP TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES. SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT OR DRY.

SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0015Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z. THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z...THEN THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITION THROUGH 16Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...16/215 PM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
SOUTH COAST.

&&

.BEACHES...16/215 PM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
FIRE...GOMBERG
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

















000
FXUS66 KLOX 170015 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
515 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK AS A LOW ARRIVES TO COOL
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...ANOTHER DAY OF TIED OR BROKEN RECORDS AS
THE SOUTHLAND HEAT WAVE CONTINUES. HOWEVER, THE WRITING IS ON THE
WALL FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE TROF THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG 140W SHIFTS WEST AND
EVOLVES INTO A SEMI CUTOFF UPPER LOW. IT WILL STILL BE HOT WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE 2-4 DEGREES OF
COOLING WHILE COASTAL ZONES DROP 5-10. AS THE TROF DIGS AND HEIGHTS
TUMBLE THU INTO FRI HIGHS WILL DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES, BOTTOMING
OUT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S FOR THE COAST AND MID 70S TO
MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS, A GOOD 15-30 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AND
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 2 WEEKS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA THIS
EVENING, ENOUGH FOR A LOW END WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
THERE. IT WILL BE A VERY WARM SUNDOWNER WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROF, PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
THU INTO EARLY FRI. MODELS DO SPIT OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS
NRN SLO COUNTY THU BUT FOR NOW AM GOING TO KEEP POPS BELOW 15% AND
JUST GO WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO GO ALONG WITH THE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE MARINE LYR IS EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 2500` DEEP. WITH THAT DEEPENING AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH
THE TROF THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED DRIZZLE WITH 5-10 POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
BOTH SHOW THE LOW FILLING SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES, THEN
THE TROF LIFTING OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE BUILDING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO WE SHOULD
SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH LOWERING MARINE LYR DEPTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE BUILDING RIDGE TUE INTO WED SO WE
EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN HIGH TEMPS FOR ALL AREAS. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THE HEAT WAVE COMING FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WOULD EASILY EQUAL THE INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT ONE AND
VERY LIKELY EXCEED IT AS THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE
COMPONENT COUPLED WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT AND 950 TEMPS AROUND
37C WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE`RE SEEING NOW. SO
ENJOY THE COOLER WEATHER COMING THE NEXT 5 OR 6 DAYS BECAUSE NEXT
WEEK COULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...16/415 PM
ANOTHER ROUND OF EXTREME HEAT TODAY...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
RANGING BETWEEN 100 AND 110 DEGREES ACROSS INLAND AREAS. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES HAVE GENERALLY RANGED BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY FUELS. MOUNTAIN AREAS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES
TODAY...DUE TO THE VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. SOME MID LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL BRING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SAN GABRIELS
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS CONFINED AT THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE LOWER LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY
DRY...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR STORMS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS...WHERE GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND SANTA
YNEZ RANGE WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT IN WIND
PRONE AREAS AND FOOTHILLS...WHILE TEMPERATURES COULD SPIKE UP TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES. SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT OR DRY.

SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0015Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z. THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z...THEN THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITION THROUGH 16Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...16/215 PM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
SOUTH COAST.

&&

.BEACHES...16/215 PM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
FIRE...GOMBERG
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 162315
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
415 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK AS A LOW ARRIVES TO COOL
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...ANOTHER DAY OF TIED OR BROKEN RECORDS AS
THE SOUTHLAND HEAT WAVE CONTINUES. HOWEVER, THE WRITING IS ON THE
WALL FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE TROF THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG 140W SHIFTS WEST AND
EVOLVES INTO A SEMI CUTOFF UPPER LOW. IT WILL STILL BE HOT WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE 2-4 DEGREES OF
COOLING WHILE COASTAL ZONES DROP 5-10. AS THE TROF DIGS AND HEIGHTS
TUMBLE THU INTO FRI HIGHS WILL DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES, BOTTOMING
OUT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S FOR THE COAST AND MID 70S TO
MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS, A GOOD 15-30 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AND
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 2 WEEKS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA THIS
EVENING, ENOUGH FOR A LOW END WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
THERE. IT WILL BE A VERY WARM SUNDOWNER WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROF, PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
THU INTO EARLY FRI. MODELS DO SPIT OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS
NRN SLO COUNTY THU BUT FOR NOW AM GOING TO KEEP POPS BELOW 15% AND
JUST GO WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO GO ALONG WITH THE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE MARINE LYR IS EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 2500` DEEP. WITH THAT DEEPENING AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH
THE TROF THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED DRIZZLE WITH 5-10 POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
BOTH SHOW THE LOW FILLING SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES, THEN
THE TROF LIFTING OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE BUILDING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO WE SHOULD
SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH LOWERING MARINE LYR DEPTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE BUILDING RIDGE TUE INTO WED SO WE
EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN HIGH TEMPS FOR ALL AREAS. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THE HEAT WAVE COMING FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WOULD EASILY EQUAL THE INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT ONE AND
VERY LIKELY EXCEED IT AS THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE
COMPONENT COUPLED WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT AND 950 TEMPS AROUND
37C WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE`RE SEEING NOW. SO
ENJOY THE COOLER WEATHER COMING THE NEXT 5 OR 6 DAYS BECAUSE NEXT
WEEK COULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...16/415 PM
ANOTHER ROUND OF EXTREME HEAT TODAY...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
RANGING BETWEEN 100 AND 110 DEGREES ACROSS INLAND AREAS. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES HAVE GENERALLY RANGED BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY FUELS. MOUNTAIN AREAS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES
TODAY...DUE TO THE VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. SOME MID LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL BRING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SAN GABRIELS
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS CONFINED AT THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE LOWER LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY
DRY...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR STORMS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS...WHERE GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT IN WIND PRONE AREAS AND
FOOTHILLS...WHILE TEMPERATURES COULD SPIKE UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS HOT OR DRY.

SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL LLWS
NEAR KSBA. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE LAYER PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST WITH VLIFR-LIFR NEAR KSMX.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...16/215 PM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
SOUTH COAST.

&&

.BEACHES...16/215 PM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
FIRE...GOMBERG
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 162315
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
415 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK AS A LOW ARRIVES TO COOL
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...ANOTHER DAY OF TIED OR BROKEN RECORDS AS
THE SOUTHLAND HEAT WAVE CONTINUES. HOWEVER, THE WRITING IS ON THE
WALL FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE TROF THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG 140W SHIFTS WEST AND
EVOLVES INTO A SEMI CUTOFF UPPER LOW. IT WILL STILL BE HOT WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE 2-4 DEGREES OF
COOLING WHILE COASTAL ZONES DROP 5-10. AS THE TROF DIGS AND HEIGHTS
TUMBLE THU INTO FRI HIGHS WILL DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES, BOTTOMING
OUT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S FOR THE COAST AND MID 70S TO
MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS, A GOOD 15-30 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AND
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 2 WEEKS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA THIS
EVENING, ENOUGH FOR A LOW END WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
THERE. IT WILL BE A VERY WARM SUNDOWNER WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROF, PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
THU INTO EARLY FRI. MODELS DO SPIT OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS
NRN SLO COUNTY THU BUT FOR NOW AM GOING TO KEEP POPS BELOW 15% AND
JUST GO WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO GO ALONG WITH THE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE MARINE LYR IS EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 2500` DEEP. WITH THAT DEEPENING AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH
THE TROF THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED DRIZZLE WITH 5-10 POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
BOTH SHOW THE LOW FILLING SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES, THEN
THE TROF LIFTING OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE BUILDING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO WE SHOULD
SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH LOWERING MARINE LYR DEPTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE BUILDING RIDGE TUE INTO WED SO WE
EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN HIGH TEMPS FOR ALL AREAS. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THE HEAT WAVE COMING FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WOULD EASILY EQUAL THE INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT ONE AND
VERY LIKELY EXCEED IT AS THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE
COMPONENT COUPLED WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT AND 950 TEMPS AROUND
37C WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE`RE SEEING NOW. SO
ENJOY THE COOLER WEATHER COMING THE NEXT 5 OR 6 DAYS BECAUSE NEXT
WEEK COULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...16/415 PM
ANOTHER ROUND OF EXTREME HEAT TODAY...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
RANGING BETWEEN 100 AND 110 DEGREES ACROSS INLAND AREAS. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES HAVE GENERALLY RANGED BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY FUELS. MOUNTAIN AREAS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES
TODAY...DUE TO THE VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. SOME MID LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL BRING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SAN GABRIELS
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS CONFINED AT THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE LOWER LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY
DRY...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR STORMS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS...WHERE GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT IN WIND PRONE AREAS AND
FOOTHILLS...WHILE TEMPERATURES COULD SPIKE UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS HOT OR DRY.

SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL LLWS
NEAR KSBA. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE LAYER PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST WITH VLIFR-LIFR NEAR KSMX.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...16/215 PM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
SOUTH COAST.

&&

.BEACHES...16/215 PM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
FIRE...GOMBERG
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 162122
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK AS A LOW ARRIVES TO COOL
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...ANOTHER DAY OF TIED OR BROKEN RECORDS AS
THE SOUTHLAND HEAT WAVE CONTINUES. HOWEVER, THE WRITING IS ON THE
WALL FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE TROF THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG 140W SHIFTS WEST AND
EVOLVES INTO A SEMI CUTOFF UPPER LOW. IT WILL STILL BE HOT WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE 2-4 DEGREES OF
COOLING WHILE COASTAL ZONES DROP 5-10. AS THE TROF DIGS AND HEIGHTS
TUMBLE THU INTO FRI HIGHS WILL DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES, BOTTOMING
OUT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S FOR THE COAST AND MID 70S TO
MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS, A GOOD 15-30 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AND
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 2 WEEKS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA THIS
EVENING, ENOUGH FOR A LOW END WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
THERE. IT WILL BE A VERY WARM SUNDOWNER WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROF, PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
THU INTO EARLY FRI. MODELS DO SPIT OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS
NRN SLO COUNTY THU BUT FOR NOW AM GOING TO KEEP POPS BELOW 15% AND
JUST GO WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO GO ALONG WITH THE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE MARINE LYR IS EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 2500` DEEP. WITH THAT DEEPENING AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH
THE TROF THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED DRIZZLE WITH 5-10 POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
BOTH SHOW THE LOW FILLING SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES, THEN
THE TROF LIFTING OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE BUILDING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO WE SHOULD
SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH LOWERING MARINE LYR DEPTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE BUILDING RIDGE TUE INTO WED SO WE
EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN HIGH TEMPS FOR ALL AREAS. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THE HEAT WAVE COMING FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WOULD EASILY EQUAL THE INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT ONE AND
VERY LIKELY EXCEED IT AS THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE
COMPONENT COUPLED WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT AND 950 TEMPS AROUND
37C WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE`RE SEEING NOW. SO
ENJOY THE COOLER WEATHER COMING THE NEXT 5 OR 6 DAYS BECAUSE NEXT
WEEK COULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...16/1205 PM
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF EXTREME HEAT TODAY...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN
100 AND 110 DEGREES TODAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
VERY DRY FUELS. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES TODAY...DUE TO THE VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGTS BETWEEN 15,000 AND 20,000 FEET WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. SOME MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SAN GABRIELS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS CONFINED AT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE LOWER LEVELS
ARE RELATIVELY DRY...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR STORMS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL ADD TO THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AND SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING...WITH HUMIDITIES GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN
15 AND 25 PERCENT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES. SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD TOMORROW EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HOT OR DRY.

SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL LLWS
NEAR KSBA. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE LAYER PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST WITH VLIFR-LIFR NEAR KSMX.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...16/215 PM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
SOUTH COAST.

&&

.BEACHES...16/215 PM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
FIRE...GOMBERG
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 162122
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK AS A LOW ARRIVES TO COOL
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...ANOTHER DAY OF TIED OR BROKEN RECORDS AS
THE SOUTHLAND HEAT WAVE CONTINUES. HOWEVER, THE WRITING IS ON THE
WALL FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE TROF THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG 140W SHIFTS WEST AND
EVOLVES INTO A SEMI CUTOFF UPPER LOW. IT WILL STILL BE HOT WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE 2-4 DEGREES OF
COOLING WHILE COASTAL ZONES DROP 5-10. AS THE TROF DIGS AND HEIGHTS
TUMBLE THU INTO FRI HIGHS WILL DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES, BOTTOMING
OUT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S FOR THE COAST AND MID 70S TO
MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS, A GOOD 15-30 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AND
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 2 WEEKS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA THIS
EVENING, ENOUGH FOR A LOW END WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
THERE. IT WILL BE A VERY WARM SUNDOWNER WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROF, PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
THU INTO EARLY FRI. MODELS DO SPIT OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS
NRN SLO COUNTY THU BUT FOR NOW AM GOING TO KEEP POPS BELOW 15% AND
JUST GO WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO GO ALONG WITH THE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE MARINE LYR IS EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 2500` DEEP. WITH THAT DEEPENING AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH
THE TROF THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED DRIZZLE WITH 5-10 POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
BOTH SHOW THE LOW FILLING SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES, THEN
THE TROF LIFTING OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE BUILDING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO WE SHOULD
SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH LOWERING MARINE LYR DEPTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE BUILDING RIDGE TUE INTO WED SO WE
EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN HIGH TEMPS FOR ALL AREAS. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THE HEAT WAVE COMING FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WOULD EASILY EQUAL THE INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT ONE AND
VERY LIKELY EXCEED IT AS THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE
COMPONENT COUPLED WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT AND 950 TEMPS AROUND
37C WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE`RE SEEING NOW. SO
ENJOY THE COOLER WEATHER COMING THE NEXT 5 OR 6 DAYS BECAUSE NEXT
WEEK COULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...16/1205 PM
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF EXTREME HEAT TODAY...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN
100 AND 110 DEGREES TODAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
VERY DRY FUELS. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES TODAY...DUE TO THE VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGTS BETWEEN 15,000 AND 20,000 FEET WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. SOME MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SAN GABRIELS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS CONFINED AT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE LOWER LEVELS
ARE RELATIVELY DRY...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR STORMS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL ADD TO THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AND SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING...WITH HUMIDITIES GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN
15 AND 25 PERCENT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES. SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD TOMORROW EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HOT OR DRY.

SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL LLWS
NEAR KSBA. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE LAYER PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST WITH VLIFR-LIFR NEAR KSMX.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...16/215 PM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
SOUTH COAST.

&&

.BEACHES...16/215 PM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
FIRE...GOMBERG
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 162022
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK AS A LOW ARRIVES TO COOL
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...ANOTHER DAY OF TIED OR BROKEN RECORDS AS
THE SOUTHLAND HEAT WAVE CONTINUES. HOWEVER, THE WRITING IS ON THE
WALL FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE TROF THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG 140W SHIFTS WEST AND
EVOLVES INTO A SEMI CUTOFF UPPER LOW. IT WILL STILL BE HOT WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE 2-4 DEGREES OF
COOLING WHILE COASTAL ZONES DROP 5-10. AS THE TROF DIGS AND HEIGHTS
TUMBLE THU INTO FRI HIGHS WILL DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES, BOTTOMING
OUT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S FOR THE COAST AND MID 70S TO
MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS, A GOOD 15-30 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AND
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 2 WEEKS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA THIS
EVENING, ENOUGH FOR A LOW END WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
THERE. IT WILL BE A VERY WARM SUNDOWNER WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROF, PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
THU INTO EARLY FRI. MODELS DO SPIT OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS
NRN SLO COUNTY THU BUT FOR NOW AM GOING TO KEEP POPS BELOW 15% AND
JUST GO WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO GO ALONG WITH THE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE MARINE LYR IS EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 2500` DEEP. WITH THAT DEEPENING AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH
THE TROF THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED DRIZZLE WITH 5-10 POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
BOTH SHOW THE LOW FILLING SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES, THEN
THE TROF LIFTING OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE BUILDING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO WE SHOULD
SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH LOWERING MARINE LYR DEPTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE BUILDING RIDGE TUE INTO WED SO WE
EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN HIGH TEMPS FOR ALL AREAS. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THE HEAT WAVE COMING FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WOULD EASILY EQUAL THE INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT ONE AND
VERY LIKELY EXCEED IT AS THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE
COMPONENT COUPLED WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT AND 950 TEMPS AROUND
37C WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE`RE SEEING NOW. SO
ENJOY THE COOLER WEATHER COMING THE NEXT 5 OR 6 DAYS BECAUSE NEXT
WEEK COULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...16/1205 PM
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF EXTREME HEAT TODAY...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN
100 AND 110 DEGREES TODAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
VERY DRY FUELS. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES TODAY...DUE TO THE VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGTS BETWEEN 15,000 AND 20,000 FEET WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. SOME MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SAN GABRIELS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS CONFINED AT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE LOWER LEVELS
ARE RELATIVELY DRY...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR STORMS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL ADD TO THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AND SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING...WITH HUMIDITIES GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN
15 AND 25 PERCENT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES. SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD TOMORROW EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HOT OR DRY.

SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL LLWS
NEAR KSBA. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE LAYER PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST WITH VLIFR-LIFR NEAR KSMX.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION IN MID-LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EARLY EVENINGS.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS.

&&

.BEACHES...16/900 AM
A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ODILE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
FIRE...GOMBERG
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 162022
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK AS A LOW ARRIVES TO COOL
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...ANOTHER DAY OF TIED OR BROKEN RECORDS AS
THE SOUTHLAND HEAT WAVE CONTINUES. HOWEVER, THE WRITING IS ON THE
WALL FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE TROF THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG 140W SHIFTS WEST AND
EVOLVES INTO A SEMI CUTOFF UPPER LOW. IT WILL STILL BE HOT WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE 2-4 DEGREES OF
COOLING WHILE COASTAL ZONES DROP 5-10. AS THE TROF DIGS AND HEIGHTS
TUMBLE THU INTO FRI HIGHS WILL DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES, BOTTOMING
OUT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S FOR THE COAST AND MID 70S TO
MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS, A GOOD 15-30 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AND
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 2 WEEKS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA THIS
EVENING, ENOUGH FOR A LOW END WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
THERE. IT WILL BE A VERY WARM SUNDOWNER WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROF, PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
THU INTO EARLY FRI. MODELS DO SPIT OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS
NRN SLO COUNTY THU BUT FOR NOW AM GOING TO KEEP POPS BELOW 15% AND
JUST GO WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO GO ALONG WITH THE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE MARINE LYR IS EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 2500` DEEP. WITH THAT DEEPENING AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH
THE TROF THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED DRIZZLE WITH 5-10 POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
BOTH SHOW THE LOW FILLING SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES, THEN
THE TROF LIFTING OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE BUILDING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO WE SHOULD
SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH LOWERING MARINE LYR DEPTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE BUILDING RIDGE TUE INTO WED SO WE
EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN HIGH TEMPS FOR ALL AREAS. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THE HEAT WAVE COMING FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WOULD EASILY EQUAL THE INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT ONE AND
VERY LIKELY EXCEED IT AS THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE
COMPONENT COUPLED WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT AND 950 TEMPS AROUND
37C WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE`RE SEEING NOW. SO
ENJOY THE COOLER WEATHER COMING THE NEXT 5 OR 6 DAYS BECAUSE NEXT
WEEK COULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...16/1205 PM
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF EXTREME HEAT TODAY...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN
100 AND 110 DEGREES TODAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
VERY DRY FUELS. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES TODAY...DUE TO THE VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGTS BETWEEN 15,000 AND 20,000 FEET WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. SOME MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SAN GABRIELS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS CONFINED AT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE LOWER LEVELS
ARE RELATIVELY DRY...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR STORMS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL ADD TO THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AND SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING...WITH HUMIDITIES GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN
15 AND 25 PERCENT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES. SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD TOMORROW EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HOT OR DRY.

SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL LLWS
NEAR KSBA. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE LAYER PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST WITH VLIFR-LIFR NEAR KSMX.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION IN MID-LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EARLY EVENINGS.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS.

&&

.BEACHES...16/900 AM
A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ODILE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
FIRE...GOMBERG
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 161908
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1205 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY HOT
WEATHER TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHT WARMING MAY BEGIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. ALL SIGNS ACTUALLY POINTING TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS TODAY BY A
FEW DEGREES. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WERE WARMER IN MOST AREAS, GRADIENTS
ARE TRENDING ABOUT 1 MB OFFSHORE, AND MOST AREA PROFILERS ARE AT
LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER UP TO 3000`. RECORDS ARE PRETTY HIGH
AGAIN BUT NOT TOTALLY OUT OF REACH. BURBANK, LONG BEACH, CAMARILLO,
SANTA BARBARA, AND SANDBERG ARE THE MOST LIKELY RECORD CANDIDATES
TODAY. DOWNTOWN LA (CQT) RECORD OF 103 IS A BIT OF A STRETCH BUT NOT
TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION.

MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST TODAY IS THE ADDITION OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO EASTERN LA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
WE`RE STILL DEFINITELY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE
SURGE FROM THE SOUTH BUT BASED ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IT SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT OUR EXTREME EASTERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
THOUGH SO PROBABLY NOT A WHOLE LOT RAIN. MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING.

WILL BE LOOKING CLOSELY AT WIND POTENTIAL FOR SBA AREA THIS EVENING.
IT DOESN`T LOOK AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT BUT COULD STILL BE A
MARGINAL ADVISORY EVENT. WILL SEE HOW GRADIENTS ARE RESPONDING THIS
AFTERNOON AND GO FROM THERE. COUNT ON AT LEAST SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
30 OR 35 IN THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD BE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...BUT
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VLYS...LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AND
IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WED AND LESS SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES AND IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY LOOKS REASONABLE.

THE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LOW WED NIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE NRN CA COAST BY THU AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...N-S GRADIENTS
ACTUALLY INCREASE A BIT ACROSS SBA COUNTY WED EVENING...SO EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW-N WINDS...POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY. THE WRF INDICATES STRATUS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
IN COASTAL AREAS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTIES...WHERE N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP STRATUS AT
BAY. GOOD HEIGHT FALLS...COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
COOLING ACROSS THE REGION THU...WITH MAX TEMPS DOWN 8 TO 15 DEGREES
IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE L.A.
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS OF L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THU...BUT THE LATEST MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PUSHING WELL EAST
OF THE REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THOSE SLIGHT CHANCES FROM THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THROUGH CA
THU NIGHT AND FRI...AND BE LOCATED NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION N OF PT
CONCEPTION WITH THE WEAKENING SFC FRONT THU NIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...AND THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS A BIT
FARTHER W WITH THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING IT WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY...SO CLEARING MAY BE SLOWER AND LESS COMPLETE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
FRI...DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND THEN MOVE EWD...SO MAX TEMPS
COULD BEGIN TO RISE IN MANY AREAS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...16/1205 PM
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF EXTREME HEAT TODAY...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN
100 AND 110 DEGREES TODAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
VERY DRY FUELS. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRES TODAY...DUE TO THE VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
MIXING HEIGTS BETWEEN 15,000 AND 20,000 FEET WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. SOME MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD
OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS CONFINED AT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND THE LOWER LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR STORMS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL ADD TO THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE AND SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING...WITH HUMIDITIES GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT
AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. SUNDOWNER
WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD TOMORROW
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT OR DRY.

SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL LLWS
NEAR KSBA. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE LAYER PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST WITH VLIFR-LIFR NEAR KSMX.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION IN MID-LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EARLY EVENINGS.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS.

&&

.BEACHES...16/900 AM
A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ODILE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...ASR/KJ
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 161908
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1205 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY HOT
WEATHER TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHT WARMING MAY BEGIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. ALL SIGNS ACTUALLY POINTING TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS TODAY BY A
FEW DEGREES. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WERE WARMER IN MOST AREAS, GRADIENTS
ARE TRENDING ABOUT 1 MB OFFSHORE, AND MOST AREA PROFILERS ARE AT
LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER UP TO 3000`. RECORDS ARE PRETTY HIGH
AGAIN BUT NOT TOTALLY OUT OF REACH. BURBANK, LONG BEACH, CAMARILLO,
SANTA BARBARA, AND SANDBERG ARE THE MOST LIKELY RECORD CANDIDATES
TODAY. DOWNTOWN LA (CQT) RECORD OF 103 IS A BIT OF A STRETCH BUT NOT
TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION.

MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST TODAY IS THE ADDITION OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO EASTERN LA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
WE`RE STILL DEFINITELY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE
SURGE FROM THE SOUTH BUT BASED ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IT SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT OUR EXTREME EASTERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
THOUGH SO PROBABLY NOT A WHOLE LOT RAIN. MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING.

WILL BE LOOKING CLOSELY AT WIND POTENTIAL FOR SBA AREA THIS EVENING.
IT DOESN`T LOOK AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT BUT COULD STILL BE A
MARGINAL ADVISORY EVENT. WILL SEE HOW GRADIENTS ARE RESPONDING THIS
AFTERNOON AND GO FROM THERE. COUNT ON AT LEAST SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
30 OR 35 IN THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD BE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...BUT
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VLYS...LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AND
IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WED AND LESS SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES AND IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY LOOKS REASONABLE.

THE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LOW WED NIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE NRN CA COAST BY THU AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...N-S GRADIENTS
ACTUALLY INCREASE A BIT ACROSS SBA COUNTY WED EVENING...SO EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW-N WINDS...POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY. THE WRF INDICATES STRATUS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
IN COASTAL AREAS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTIES...WHERE N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP STRATUS AT
BAY. GOOD HEIGHT FALLS...COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
COOLING ACROSS THE REGION THU...WITH MAX TEMPS DOWN 8 TO 15 DEGREES
IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE L.A.
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS OF L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THU...BUT THE LATEST MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PUSHING WELL EAST
OF THE REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THOSE SLIGHT CHANCES FROM THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THROUGH CA
THU NIGHT AND FRI...AND BE LOCATED NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION N OF PT
CONCEPTION WITH THE WEAKENING SFC FRONT THU NIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...AND THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS A BIT
FARTHER W WITH THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING IT WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY...SO CLEARING MAY BE SLOWER AND LESS COMPLETE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
FRI...DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND THEN MOVE EWD...SO MAX TEMPS
COULD BEGIN TO RISE IN MANY AREAS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...16/1205 PM
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF EXTREME HEAT TODAY...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN
100 AND 110 DEGREES TODAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
VERY DRY FUELS. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRES TODAY...DUE TO THE VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
MIXING HEIGTS BETWEEN 15,000 AND 20,000 FEET WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. SOME MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD
OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS CONFINED AT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND THE LOWER LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR STORMS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL ADD TO THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE AND SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING...WITH HUMIDITIES GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT
AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. SUNDOWNER
WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD TOMORROW
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT OR DRY.

SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL LLWS
NEAR KSBA. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE LAYER PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST WITH VLIFR-LIFR NEAR KSMX.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION IN MID-LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EARLY EVENINGS.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS.

&&

.BEACHES...16/900 AM
A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ODILE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...ASR/KJ
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 161744
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY HOT
WEATHER TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHT WARMING MAY BEGIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. ALL SIGNS ACTUALLY POINTING TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS TODAY BY A
FEW DEGREES. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WERE WARMER IN MOST AREAS, GRADIENTS
ARE TRENDING ABOUT 1 MB OFFSHORE, AND MOST AREA PROFILERS ARE AT
LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER UP TO 3000`. RECORDS ARE PRETTY HIGH
AGAIN BUT NOT TOTALLY OUT OF REACH. BURBANK, LONG BEACH, CAMARILLO,
SANTA BARBARA, AND SANDBERG ARE THE MOST LIKELY RECORD CANDIDATES
TODAY. DOWNTOWN LA (CQT) RECORD OF 103 IS A BIT OF A STRETCH BUT NOT
TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION.

MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST TODAY IS THE ADDITION OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO EASTERN LA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
WE`RE STILL DEFINITELY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE
SURGE FROM THE SOUTH BUT BASED ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IT SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT OUR EXTREME EASTERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
THOUGH SO PROBABLY NOT A WHOLE LOT RAIN. MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING.

WILL BE LOOKING CLOSELY AT WIND POTENTIAL FOR SBA AREA THIS EVENING.
IT DOESN`T LOOK AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT BUT COULD STILL BE A
MARGINAL ADVISORY EVENT. WILL SEE HOW GRADIENTS ARE RESPONDING THIS
AFTERNOON AND GO FROM THERE. COUNT ON AT LEAST SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
30 OR 35 IN THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD BE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...BUT
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VLYS...LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AND
IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WED AND LESS SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES AND IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY LOOKS REASONABLE.

THE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LOW WED NIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE NRN CA COAST BY THU AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...N-S GRADIENTS
ACTUALLY INCREASE A BIT ACROSS SBA COUNTY WED EVENING...SO EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW-N WINDS...POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY. THE WRF INDICATES STRATUS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
IN COASTAL AREAS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTIES...WHERE N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP STRATUS AT
BAY. GOOD HEIGHT FALLS...COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
COOLING ACROSS THE REGION THU...WITH MAX TEMPS DOWN 8 TO 15 DEGREES
IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE L.A.
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS OF L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THU...BUT THE LATEST MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PUSHING WELL EAST
OF THE REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THOSE SLIGHT CHANCES FROM THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THROUGH CA
THU NIGHT AND FRI...AND BE LOCATED NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION N OF PT
CONCEPTION WITH THE WEAKENING SFC FRONT THU NIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...AND THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS A BIT
FARTHER W WITH THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING IT WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY...SO CLEARING MAY BE SLOWER AND LESS COMPLETE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
FRI...DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND THEN MOVE EWD...SO MAX TEMPS
COULD BEGIN TO RISE IN MANY AREAS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL LLWS
NEAR KSBA. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE LAYER PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST WITH VLIFR-LIFR NEAR KSMX.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION IN MID-LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EARLY EVENINGS.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS.

&&

.BEACHES...16/900 AM
A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ODILE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...ASR/KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 161744
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY HOT
WEATHER TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHT WARMING MAY BEGIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. ALL SIGNS ACTUALLY POINTING TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS TODAY BY A
FEW DEGREES. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WERE WARMER IN MOST AREAS, GRADIENTS
ARE TRENDING ABOUT 1 MB OFFSHORE, AND MOST AREA PROFILERS ARE AT
LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER UP TO 3000`. RECORDS ARE PRETTY HIGH
AGAIN BUT NOT TOTALLY OUT OF REACH. BURBANK, LONG BEACH, CAMARILLO,
SANTA BARBARA, AND SANDBERG ARE THE MOST LIKELY RECORD CANDIDATES
TODAY. DOWNTOWN LA (CQT) RECORD OF 103 IS A BIT OF A STRETCH BUT NOT
TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION.

MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST TODAY IS THE ADDITION OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO EASTERN LA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
WE`RE STILL DEFINITELY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE
SURGE FROM THE SOUTH BUT BASED ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IT SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT OUR EXTREME EASTERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
THOUGH SO PROBABLY NOT A WHOLE LOT RAIN. MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING.

WILL BE LOOKING CLOSELY AT WIND POTENTIAL FOR SBA AREA THIS EVENING.
IT DOESN`T LOOK AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT BUT COULD STILL BE A
MARGINAL ADVISORY EVENT. WILL SEE HOW GRADIENTS ARE RESPONDING THIS
AFTERNOON AND GO FROM THERE. COUNT ON AT LEAST SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
30 OR 35 IN THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD BE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...BUT
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VLYS...LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AND
IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WED AND LESS SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES AND IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY LOOKS REASONABLE.

THE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LOW WED NIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE NRN CA COAST BY THU AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...N-S GRADIENTS
ACTUALLY INCREASE A BIT ACROSS SBA COUNTY WED EVENING...SO EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW-N WINDS...POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY. THE WRF INDICATES STRATUS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
IN COASTAL AREAS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTIES...WHERE N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP STRATUS AT
BAY. GOOD HEIGHT FALLS...COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
COOLING ACROSS THE REGION THU...WITH MAX TEMPS DOWN 8 TO 15 DEGREES
IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE L.A.
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS OF L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THU...BUT THE LATEST MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PUSHING WELL EAST
OF THE REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THOSE SLIGHT CHANCES FROM THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THROUGH CA
THU NIGHT AND FRI...AND BE LOCATED NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION N OF PT
CONCEPTION WITH THE WEAKENING SFC FRONT THU NIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...AND THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS A BIT
FARTHER W WITH THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING IT WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY...SO CLEARING MAY BE SLOWER AND LESS COMPLETE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
FRI...DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND THEN MOVE EWD...SO MAX TEMPS
COULD BEGIN TO RISE IN MANY AREAS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL LLWS
NEAR KSBA. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE LAYER PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST WITH VLIFR-LIFR NEAR KSMX.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION IN MID-LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EARLY EVENINGS.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS.

&&

.BEACHES...16/900 AM
A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ODILE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...ASR/KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 161630
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY HOT
WEATHER TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHT WARMING MAY BEGIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. ALL SIGNS ACTUALLY POINTING TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS TODAY BY A
FEW DEGREES. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WERE WARMER IN MOST AREAS, GRADIENTS
ARE TRENDING ABOUT 1 MB OFFSHORE, AND MOST AREA PROFILERS ARE AT
LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER UP TO 3000`. RECORDS ARE PRETTY HIGH
AGAIN BUT NOT TOTALLY OUT OF REACH. BURBANK, LONG BEACH, CAMARILLO,
SANTA BARBARA, AND SANDBERG ARE THE MOST LIKELY RECORD CANDIDATES
TODAY. DOWNTOWN LA (CQT) RECORD OF 103 IS A BIT OF A STRETCH BUT NOT
TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION.

MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST TODAY IS THE ADDITION OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO EASTERN LA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
WE`RE STILL DEFINITELY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE
SURGE FROM THE SOUTH BUT BASED ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IT SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT OUR EXTREME EASTERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
THOUGH SO PROBABLY NOT A WHOLE LOT RAIN. MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING.

WILL BE LOOKING CLOSELY AT WIND POTENTIAL FOR SBA AREA THIS EVENING.
IT DOESN`T LOOK AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT BUT COULD STILL BE A
MARGINAL ADVISORY EVENT. WILL SEE HOW GRADIENTS ARE RESPONDING THIS
AFTERNOON AND GO FROM THERE. COUNT ON AT LEAST SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
30 OR 35 IN THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD BE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...BUT
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VLYS...LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AND
IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WED AND LESS SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES AND IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY LOOKS REASONABLE.

THE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LOW WED NIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE NRN CA COAST BY THU AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...N-S GRADIENTS
ACTUALLY INCREASE A BIT ACROSS SBA COUNTY WED EVENING...SO EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW-N WINDS...POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY. THE WRF INDICATES STRATUS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
IN COASTAL AREAS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTIES...WHERE N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP STRATUS AT
BAY. GOOD HEIGHT FALLS...COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
COOLING ACROSS THE REGION THU...WITH MAX TEMPS DOWN 8 TO 15 DEGREES
IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE L.A.
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS OF L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THU...BUT THE LATEST MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PUSHING WELL EAST
OF THE REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THOSE SLIGHT CHANCES FROM THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THROUGH CA
THU NIGHT AND FRI...AND BE LOCATED NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION N OF PT
CONCEPTION WITH THE WEAKENING SFC FRONT THU NIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...AND THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS A BIT
FARTHER W WITH THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING IT WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY...SO CLEARING MAY BE SLOWER AND LESS COMPLETE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
FRI...DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND THEN MOVE EWD...SO MAX TEMPS
COULD BEGIN TO RISE IN MANY AREAS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1145Z

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE EVENING WITH LOCAL LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION IN MID-LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EARLY EVENINGS.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS.

&&

.BEACHES...16/900 AM
A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ODILE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...ASR/KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 161630
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY HOT
WEATHER TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHT WARMING MAY BEGIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. ALL SIGNS ACTUALLY POINTING TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS TODAY BY A
FEW DEGREES. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WERE WARMER IN MOST AREAS, GRADIENTS
ARE TRENDING ABOUT 1 MB OFFSHORE, AND MOST AREA PROFILERS ARE AT
LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER UP TO 3000`. RECORDS ARE PRETTY HIGH
AGAIN BUT NOT TOTALLY OUT OF REACH. BURBANK, LONG BEACH, CAMARILLO,
SANTA BARBARA, AND SANDBERG ARE THE MOST LIKELY RECORD CANDIDATES
TODAY. DOWNTOWN LA (CQT) RECORD OF 103 IS A BIT OF A STRETCH BUT NOT
TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION.

MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST TODAY IS THE ADDITION OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO EASTERN LA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
WE`RE STILL DEFINITELY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE
SURGE FROM THE SOUTH BUT BASED ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IT SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT OUR EXTREME EASTERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
THOUGH SO PROBABLY NOT A WHOLE LOT RAIN. MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING.

WILL BE LOOKING CLOSELY AT WIND POTENTIAL FOR SBA AREA THIS EVENING.
IT DOESN`T LOOK AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT BUT COULD STILL BE A
MARGINAL ADVISORY EVENT. WILL SEE HOW GRADIENTS ARE RESPONDING THIS
AFTERNOON AND GO FROM THERE. COUNT ON AT LEAST SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
30 OR 35 IN THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD BE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...BUT
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VLYS...LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AND
IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WED AND LESS SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES AND IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY LOOKS REASONABLE.

THE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LOW WED NIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE NRN CA COAST BY THU AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...N-S GRADIENTS
ACTUALLY INCREASE A BIT ACROSS SBA COUNTY WED EVENING...SO EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW-N WINDS...POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY. THE WRF INDICATES STRATUS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
IN COASTAL AREAS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTIES...WHERE N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP STRATUS AT
BAY. GOOD HEIGHT FALLS...COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
COOLING ACROSS THE REGION THU...WITH MAX TEMPS DOWN 8 TO 15 DEGREES
IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE L.A.
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS OF L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THU...BUT THE LATEST MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PUSHING WELL EAST
OF THE REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THOSE SLIGHT CHANCES FROM THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THROUGH CA
THU NIGHT AND FRI...AND BE LOCATED NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION N OF PT
CONCEPTION WITH THE WEAKENING SFC FRONT THU NIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...AND THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS A BIT
FARTHER W WITH THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING IT WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY...SO CLEARING MAY BE SLOWER AND LESS COMPLETE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
FRI...DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND THEN MOVE EWD...SO MAX TEMPS
COULD BEGIN TO RISE IN MANY AREAS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1145Z

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE EVENING WITH LOCAL LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION IN MID-LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EARLY EVENINGS.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS.

&&

.BEACHES...16/900 AM
A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ODILE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...ASR/KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 161601
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY HOT
WEATHER TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHT
WARMING MAY BEGIN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. W-E PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAKLY OFFSHORE FROM KLAX TO
KDAG. N-S GRADIENTS WERE MODERATELY OFFSHORE...AND GUSTY WINDS CONTD
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY. HAVE
EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH 9 AM FOR THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND
ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTIES BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. IT WAS
VERY WARM EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS AND IN BREEZY
AREAS...WHERE TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE 80S AS OF 3 AM PDT...AND UPPER
80S IN SOME CASES. EXPECT TODAY TO BE A VERY HOT DAY JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. WHILE HGTS/THICKNESSES
HAVE DROPPED A BIT...950 MB TEMPS REMAINED VERY HIGH...WITH AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWING TEMPS AT 950 MB OF NEAR 90F OR 32C. WITH SUCH A
WARM START TO THE DAY...AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TO BEGIN...EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO BE AS HIGH AS THEY WERE ON MON IN MANY AREAS...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS WERE EVEN A BIT HOTTER.

WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY...FEEL THAT THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE MTNS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST TONIGHT AND WED. LOW
LEVEL N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS THROUGH THE
SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY THIS
EVENING...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THERE
TONIGHT. SOME STRATUS COULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS
ON WED SHOULD BE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS IN THE VLYS...LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AND IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WED AND LESS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LOW WED NIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE NRN CA COAST BY THU AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...N-S GRADIENTS
ACTUALLY INCREASE A BIT ACROSS SBA COUNTY WED EVENING...SO EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW-N WINDS...POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY. THE WRF INDICATES STRATUS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
IN COASTAL AREAS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTIES...WHERE N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP STRATUS AT
BAY. GOOD HEIGHT FALLS...COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
COOLING ACROSS THE REGION THU...WITH MAX TEMPS DOWN 8 TO 15 DEGREES
IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE L.A.
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS OF L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THU...BUT THE LATEST MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PUSHING WELL EAST
OF THE REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THOSE SLIGHT CHANCES FROM THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THROUGH CA
THU NIGHT AND FRI...AND BE LOCATED NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION N OF PT
CONCEPTION WITH THE WEAKENING SFC FRONT THU NIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...AND THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS A BIT
FARTHER W WITH THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING IT WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY...SO CLEARING MAY BE SLOWER AND LESS COMPLETE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
FRI...DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND THEN MOVE EWD...SO MAX TEMPS
COULD BEGIN TO RISE IN MANY AREAS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1145Z

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE EVENING WITH LOCAL LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION IN MID-LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EARLY EVENINGS.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS.

&&

.BEACHES...16/900 AM
A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ODILE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...ASR/KJ
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 161601
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY HOT
WEATHER TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHT
WARMING MAY BEGIN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. W-E PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAKLY OFFSHORE FROM KLAX TO
KDAG. N-S GRADIENTS WERE MODERATELY OFFSHORE...AND GUSTY WINDS CONTD
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY. HAVE
EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH 9 AM FOR THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND
ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTIES BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. IT WAS
VERY WARM EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS AND IN BREEZY
AREAS...WHERE TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE 80S AS OF 3 AM PDT...AND UPPER
80S IN SOME CASES. EXPECT TODAY TO BE A VERY HOT DAY JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. WHILE HGTS/THICKNESSES
HAVE DROPPED A BIT...950 MB TEMPS REMAINED VERY HIGH...WITH AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWING TEMPS AT 950 MB OF NEAR 90F OR 32C. WITH SUCH A
WARM START TO THE DAY...AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TO BEGIN...EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO BE AS HIGH AS THEY WERE ON MON IN MANY AREAS...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS WERE EVEN A BIT HOTTER.

WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY...FEEL THAT THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE MTNS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST TONIGHT AND WED. LOW
LEVEL N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS THROUGH THE
SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY THIS
EVENING...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THERE
TONIGHT. SOME STRATUS COULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS
ON WED SHOULD BE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS IN THE VLYS...LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AND IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WED AND LESS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LOW WED NIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE NRN CA COAST BY THU AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...N-S GRADIENTS
ACTUALLY INCREASE A BIT ACROSS SBA COUNTY WED EVENING...SO EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW-N WINDS...POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY. THE WRF INDICATES STRATUS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
IN COASTAL AREAS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTIES...WHERE N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP STRATUS AT
BAY. GOOD HEIGHT FALLS...COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
COOLING ACROSS THE REGION THU...WITH MAX TEMPS DOWN 8 TO 15 DEGREES
IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE L.A.
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS OF L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THU...BUT THE LATEST MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PUSHING WELL EAST
OF THE REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THOSE SLIGHT CHANCES FROM THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THROUGH CA
THU NIGHT AND FRI...AND BE LOCATED NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION N OF PT
CONCEPTION WITH THE WEAKENING SFC FRONT THU NIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...AND THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS A BIT
FARTHER W WITH THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING IT WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY...SO CLEARING MAY BE SLOWER AND LESS COMPLETE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
FRI...DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND THEN MOVE EWD...SO MAX TEMPS
COULD BEGIN TO RISE IN MANY AREAS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1145Z

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE EVENING WITH LOCAL LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION IN MID-LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EARLY EVENINGS.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE NORTHWEST
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS.

&&

.BEACHES...16/900 AM
A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ODILE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...ASR/KJ
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 161139
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
342 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY HOT
WEATHER TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHT
WARMING MAY BEGIN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. W-E PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAKLY OFFSHORE FROM KLAX TO
KDAG. N-S GRADIENTS WERE MODERATELY OFFSHORE...AND GUSTY WINDS CONTD
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY. HAVE
EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH 9 AM FOR THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND
ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTIES BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. IT WAS
VERY WARM EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS AND IN BREEZY
AREAS...WHERE TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE 80S AS OF 3 AM PDT...AND UPPER
80S IN SOME CASES. EXPECT TODAY TO BE A VERY HOT DAY JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. WHILE HGTS/THICKNESSES
HAVE DROPPED A BIT...950 MB TEMPS REMAINED VERY HIGH...WITH AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWING TEMPS AT 950 MB OF NEAR 90F OR 32C. WITH SUCH A
WARM START TO THE DAY...AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TO BEGIN...EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO BE AS HIGH AS THEY WERE ON MON IN MANY AREAS...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS WERE EVEN A BIT HOTTER.

WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY...FEEL THAT THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE MTNS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST TONIGHT AND WED. LOW
LEVEL N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS THROUGH THE
SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY THIS
EVENING...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THERE
TONIGHT. SOME STRATUS COULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS
ON WED SHOULD BE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS IN THE VLYS...LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AND IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WED AND LESS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LOW WED NIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE NRN CA COAST BY THU AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...N-S GRADIENTS
ACTUALLY INCREASE A BIT ACROSS SBA COUNTY WED EVENING...SO EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW-N WINDS...POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY. THE WRF INDICATES STRATUS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
IN COASTAL AREAS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTIES...WHERE N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP STRATUS AT
BAY. GOOD HEIGHT FALLS...COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
COOLING ACROSS THE REGION THU...WITH MAX TEMPS DOWN 8 TO 15 DEGREES
IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE L.A.
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS OF L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THU...BUT THE LATEST MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PUSHING WELL EAST
OF THE REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THOSE SLIGHT CHANCES FROM THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THROUGH CA
THU NIGHT AND FRI...AND BE LOCATED NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION N OF PT
CONCEPTION WITH THE WEAKENING SFC FRONT THU NIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...AND THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS A BIT
FARTHER W WITH THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING IT WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY...SO CLEARING MAY BE SLOWER AND LESS COMPLETE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
FRI...DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND THEN MOVE EWD...SO MAX TEMPS
COULD BEGIN TO RISE IN MANY AREAS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

16/1145Z

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE EVENING WITH LOCAL LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

16/300 AM

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL SEE LOCAL
NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS.

&&

.BEACHES...

16/300 AM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ODILE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 161114
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
342 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY HOT
WEATHER TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...MAINLY FOR
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHT WARMING MAY
BEGIN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. W-E PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAKLY OFFSHORE FROM KLAX TO
KDAG. N-S GRADIENTS WERE MODERATELY OFFSHORE...AND GUSTY WINDS CONTD
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY. HAVE
EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH 9 AM FOR THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND
ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTIES BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. IT WAS A
VERY WARM NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS AND IN BREEZY AREAS...WHERE
TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE 80S AS OF 3 AM PDT...UPPER 80S IN SOME
CASES. EXPECT TODAY TO BE A VERY HOT DAY JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. WHILE HGTS/THICKNESSES HAVE DROPPED A
BIT...950 MB TEMPS REMAINED VERY HIGH...WITH AMDAR SOUNDINGS
SHOWING TEMPS AT 950 MB OF NEAR 90F OR 32C. WITH SUCH A WARM START
TO THE DAY...AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TO BEGIN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
BE AS HIGH AS THEY WERE ON MON IN MANY AREAS...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS WERE EVEN A BIT HOTTER.

WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY...FEEL THAT THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE MTNS.


AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST TONIGHT AND WED. LOW
LEVEL N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS THROUGH THE
SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY THIS
EVENING...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THERE
TONIGHT. SOME STRATUS COULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS
ON WED SHOULD BE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS IN THE VLYS...LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AND IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WED...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY LOOKS REASONABLE.

THE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LOW WED NIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE NRN CA COAST BY THU AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...N-S GRADIENTS
ACTUALLY INCREASE A BIT ACROSS SBA COUNTY WED EVENING...SO EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW-N WINDS...POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY. THE WRF INDICATES STRATUS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
IN COASTAL AREAS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTIES...WHERE N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP STRATUS AT
BAY. GOOD HEIGHT FALLS...COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
COOLING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAX TEMPS DOWN 8 TO 15 DEGREES IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE L.A.
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS OF L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT THE BULK OF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL LIKELY PASS FAR TO THE SE OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THROUGH CA
THU NIGHT AND FRI...AND BE LOCATED NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION N OF PT
CONCEPTION WITH THE WEAKENING SFC FRONT THU NIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...AND THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS A BIT
FARTHER W WITH THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING IT WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY...SO CLEARING MAY BE SLOWER AND LESS COMPLETE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
FRI...DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND THEN MOVE EWD...SO MAX TEMPS
COULD BEGIN TO RISE IN MANY AREAS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MARINE...

16/300 AM

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL SEE LOCAL
NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BRUNO
AVIATION/MARINE...
SYNOPSIS...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 161114
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
342 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY HOT
WEATHER TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...MAINLY FOR
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHT WARMING MAY
BEGIN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. W-E PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAKLY OFFSHORE FROM KLAX TO
KDAG. N-S GRADIENTS WERE MODERATELY OFFSHORE...AND GUSTY WINDS CONTD
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY. HAVE
EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH 9 AM FOR THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND
ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTIES BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. IT WAS A
VERY WARM NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS AND IN BREEZY AREAS...WHERE
TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE 80S AS OF 3 AM PDT...UPPER 80S IN SOME
CASES. EXPECT TODAY TO BE A VERY HOT DAY JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. WHILE HGTS/THICKNESSES HAVE DROPPED A
BIT...950 MB TEMPS REMAINED VERY HIGH...WITH AMDAR SOUNDINGS
SHOWING TEMPS AT 950 MB OF NEAR 90F OR 32C. WITH SUCH A WARM START
TO THE DAY...AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TO BEGIN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
BE AS HIGH AS THEY WERE ON MON IN MANY AREAS...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS WERE EVEN A BIT HOTTER.

WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY...FEEL THAT THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE MTNS.


AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST TONIGHT AND WED. LOW
LEVEL N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS THROUGH THE
SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY THIS
EVENING...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THERE
TONIGHT. SOME STRATUS COULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS
ON WED SHOULD BE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS IN THE VLYS...LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AND IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WED...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY LOOKS REASONABLE.

THE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LOW WED NIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE NRN CA COAST BY THU AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...N-S GRADIENTS
ACTUALLY INCREASE A BIT ACROSS SBA COUNTY WED EVENING...SO EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW-N WINDS...POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY. THE WRF INDICATES STRATUS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
IN COASTAL AREAS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTIES...WHERE N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP STRATUS AT
BAY. GOOD HEIGHT FALLS...COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
COOLING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAX TEMPS DOWN 8 TO 15 DEGREES IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE L.A.
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS OF L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT THE BULK OF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL LIKELY PASS FAR TO THE SE OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THROUGH CA
THU NIGHT AND FRI...AND BE LOCATED NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION N OF PT
CONCEPTION WITH THE WEAKENING SFC FRONT THU NIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...AND THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS A BIT
FARTHER W WITH THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING IT WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY...SO CLEARING MAY BE SLOWER AND LESS COMPLETE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
FRI...DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND THEN MOVE EWD...SO MAX TEMPS
COULD BEGIN TO RISE IN MANY AREAS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MARINE...

16/300 AM

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL SEE LOCAL
NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BRUNO
AVIATION/MARINE...
SYNOPSIS...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 160940 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NEW MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY
HOT WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID
WEEK DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...MAINLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.UPDATE...
IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...MAIN ISSUE IS LOW END ADVISORY
SUNDOWNER EVENT ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SBA-SMX
GRADIENT WAS -4.7 MB LAST HOUR...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DUE TO THIS GRADIENT...NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL NORTH
WIND-PRONE SPOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY UNTIL 400 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES 39/52.

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CONCERNS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM. LATEST
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES EVERYWHERE AS AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME
STRATUS/DENSE FOG TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST
CALIF. MANY VALLEY AREAS STARTED THE DAY ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED THAT SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL REACHING 105 DEGREE
CRITERIA ACROSS THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE...THE MOUNTAINS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND SOME COASTAL
AREAS WERE ALSO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT A CAP NEAR 18K FEET SHOULD
LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND CLOUDS WILL EVAPORATE BY SUNSET.
EXPECT READINGS TO BE SLOW TO COOL DOWN TONIGHT WITH MANY FOOTHILL
COMMUNITIES ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME OVERALL AS TODAY WITH POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES OF COOLING. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL RUN
UNTIL 7PM TUESDAY EVENING AND THAT STILL LOOKS ON-TRACK FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE RATHER NEUTRAL
TOMORROW WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN
CUMULUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOCAL SUNDOWNER WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH
SANTA BARBARA COAST TUESDAY EVENING.

THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO LOS
ANGELES COUNTY WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS GOING ABOVE 12 DEGREES CELSIUS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STEERING WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT SO
THERE COULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STORMS WHERE THEY MATERIALIZE ON
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL SLOW THE HEATING FROM DIRECT SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE BUT NOT
QUITE REACH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA.

MODEL DATA SHOWS THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE DOWN THE
NORTHERN CALIF COAST ON THURSDAY TOWARD THE BAY AREA INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY BUT WE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL THIS MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS...WE
SHOULD SEE 4-8 DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GETTING CLOSER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW ALONG THE CALIF COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND 12Z ECM NOW HAVE THE LOW
NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN THIS SCENARIO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FRI-SAT WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR
ONSHORE FLOW AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNINGS. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SOME MONSOON MOISTURE COULD BE PULLED WESTWARD FROM THE
HIGH DESERT BACK INTO OUR MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES JUST BELOW MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS IN CASE THE GFS WORKS OUT. THE ECM KEEPS A
CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF CALIF THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE
GFS BEGINS TO RAPIDLY BUILD A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
THE 00Z ECM AND LATEST 5-WAVE GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING A GIANT HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN U.S. A SIGNIFICANT HEAT
WAVE COULD BE IN THE WORKS NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
POINT DUE TO CONFLICTING SOLUTIONS (12Z ECM AND 00Z GEM) OF A LARGE
FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STATES BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0545Z...

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. EXCEPT FOR SOME
POSSIBLE LIFR/VLIFR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST LATE
TONIGHT THRU MID MORNING TUE...EXPECT VFR CONDS THRU THE PD. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE EVENING WITH LOCAL LLWS AND MDT
UDDF NEAR KSBA FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...

16/300 AM

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL SEE LOCAL
NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS.

&&

.BEACHES...

16/300 AM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ODILE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT/BOLDT
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 160940 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NEW MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY
HOT WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID
WEEK DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...MAINLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.UPDATE...
IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...MAIN ISSUE IS LOW END ADVISORY
SUNDOWNER EVENT ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SBA-SMX
GRADIENT WAS -4.7 MB LAST HOUR...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DUE TO THIS GRADIENT...NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL NORTH
WIND-PRONE SPOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY UNTIL 400 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES 39/52.

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CONCERNS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM. LATEST
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES EVERYWHERE AS AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME
STRATUS/DENSE FOG TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST
CALIF. MANY VALLEY AREAS STARTED THE DAY ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED THAT SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL REACHING 105 DEGREE
CRITERIA ACROSS THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE...THE MOUNTAINS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND SOME COASTAL
AREAS WERE ALSO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT A CAP NEAR 18K FEET SHOULD
LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND CLOUDS WILL EVAPORATE BY SUNSET.
EXPECT READINGS TO BE SLOW TO COOL DOWN TONIGHT WITH MANY FOOTHILL
COMMUNITIES ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME OVERALL AS TODAY WITH POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES OF COOLING. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL RUN
UNTIL 7PM TUESDAY EVENING AND THAT STILL LOOKS ON-TRACK FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE RATHER NEUTRAL
TOMORROW WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN
CUMULUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOCAL SUNDOWNER WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH
SANTA BARBARA COAST TUESDAY EVENING.

THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO LOS
ANGELES COUNTY WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS GOING ABOVE 12 DEGREES CELSIUS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STEERING WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT SO
THERE COULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STORMS WHERE THEY MATERIALIZE ON
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL SLOW THE HEATING FROM DIRECT SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE BUT NOT
QUITE REACH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA.

MODEL DATA SHOWS THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE DOWN THE
NORTHERN CALIF COAST ON THURSDAY TOWARD THE BAY AREA INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY BUT WE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL THIS MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS...WE
SHOULD SEE 4-8 DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GETTING CLOSER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW ALONG THE CALIF COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND 12Z ECM NOW HAVE THE LOW
NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN THIS SCENARIO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FRI-SAT WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR
ONSHORE FLOW AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNINGS. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SOME MONSOON MOISTURE COULD BE PULLED WESTWARD FROM THE
HIGH DESERT BACK INTO OUR MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES JUST BELOW MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS IN CASE THE GFS WORKS OUT. THE ECM KEEPS A
CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF CALIF THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE
GFS BEGINS TO RAPIDLY BUILD A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
THE 00Z ECM AND LATEST 5-WAVE GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING A GIANT HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN U.S. A SIGNIFICANT HEAT
WAVE COULD BE IN THE WORKS NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
POINT DUE TO CONFLICTING SOLUTIONS (12Z ECM AND 00Z GEM) OF A LARGE
FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STATES BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0545Z...

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. EXCEPT FOR SOME
POSSIBLE LIFR/VLIFR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST LATE
TONIGHT THRU MID MORNING TUE...EXPECT VFR CONDS THRU THE PD. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE EVENING WITH LOCAL LLWS AND MDT
UDDF NEAR KSBA FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...

16/300 AM

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL SEE LOCAL
NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS.

&&

.BEACHES...

16/300 AM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ODILE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT/BOLDT
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 160546 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY
HOT WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID
WEEK DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...MAINLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.UPDATE...
IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...MAIN ISSUE IS LOW END ADVISORY
SUNDOWNER EVENT ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SBA-SMX
GRADIENT WAS -4.7 MB LAST HOUR...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DUE TO THIS GRADIENT...NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL NORTH
WIND-PRONE SPOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY UNTIL 400 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES 39/52.

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CONCERNS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM. LATEST
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES EVERYWHERE AS AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME
STRATUS/DENSE FOG TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST
CALIF. MANY VALLEY AREAS STARTED THE DAY ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED THAT SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL REACHING 105 DEGREE
CRITERIA ACROSS THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE...THE MOUNTAINS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND SOME COASTAL
AREAS WERE ALSO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT A CAP NEAR 18K FEET SHOULD
LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND CLOUDS WILL EVAPORATE BY SUNSET.
EXPECT READINGS TO BE SLOW TO COOL DOWN TONIGHT WITH MANY FOOTHILL
COMMUNITIES ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME OVERALL AS TODAY WITH POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES OF COOLING. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL RUN
UNTIL 7PM TUESDAY EVENING AND THAT STILL LOOKS ON-TRACK FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE RATHER NEUTRAL
TOMORROW WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN
CUMULUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOCAL SUNDOWNER WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH
SANTA BARBARA COAST TUESDAY EVENING.

THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO LOS
ANGELES COUNTY WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS GOING ABOVE 12 DEGREES CELSIUS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STEERING WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT SO
THERE COULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STORMS WHERE THEY MATERIALIZE ON
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL SLOW THE HEATING FROM DIRECT SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE BUT NOT
QUITE REACH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA.

MODEL DATA SHOWS THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE DOWN THE
NORTHERN CALIF COAST ON THURSDAY TOWARD THE BAY AREA INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY BUT WE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL THIS MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS...WE
SHOULD SEE 4-8 DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GETTING CLOSER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW ALONG THE CALIF COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND 12Z ECM NOW HAVE THE LOW
NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN THIS SCENARIO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FRI-SAT WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR
ONSHORE FLOW AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNINGS. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SOME MONSOON MOISTURE COULD BE PULLED WESTWARD FROM THE
HIGH DESERT BACK INTO OUR MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES JUST BELOW MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS IN CASE THE GFS WORKS OUT. THE ECM KEEPS A
CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF CALIF THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE
GFS BEGINS TO RAPIDLY BUILD A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
THE 00Z ECM AND LATEST 5-WAVE GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING A GIANT HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN U.S. A SIGNIFICANT HEAT
WAVE COULD BE IN THE WORKS NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
POINT DUE TO CONFLICTING SOLUTIONS (12Z ECM AND 00Z GEM) OF A LARGE
FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STATES BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0545Z...

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. EXCEPT FOR SOME
POSSIBLE LIFR/VLIFR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST LATE
TONIGHT THRU MID MORNING TUE...EXPECT VFR CONDS THRU THE PD. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE EVENING WITH LOCAL LLWS AND MDT
UDDF NEAR KSBA FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...15/800 PM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS
LIKELY THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE SOME LOCAL NORTHWEST
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...AND MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...15/800 PM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT/BOLDT
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT/DS
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 160546 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY
HOT WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID
WEEK DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...MAINLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.UPDATE...
IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...MAIN ISSUE IS LOW END ADVISORY
SUNDOWNER EVENT ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SBA-SMX
GRADIENT WAS -4.7 MB LAST HOUR...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DUE TO THIS GRADIENT...NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL NORTH
WIND-PRONE SPOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY UNTIL 400 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES 39/52.

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CONCERNS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM. LATEST
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES EVERYWHERE AS AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME
STRATUS/DENSE FOG TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST
CALIF. MANY VALLEY AREAS STARTED THE DAY ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED THAT SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL REACHING 105 DEGREE
CRITERIA ACROSS THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE...THE MOUNTAINS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND SOME COASTAL
AREAS WERE ALSO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT A CAP NEAR 18K FEET SHOULD
LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND CLOUDS WILL EVAPORATE BY SUNSET.
EXPECT READINGS TO BE SLOW TO COOL DOWN TONIGHT WITH MANY FOOTHILL
COMMUNITIES ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME OVERALL AS TODAY WITH POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES OF COOLING. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL RUN
UNTIL 7PM TUESDAY EVENING AND THAT STILL LOOKS ON-TRACK FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE RATHER NEUTRAL
TOMORROW WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN
CUMULUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOCAL SUNDOWNER WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH
SANTA BARBARA COAST TUESDAY EVENING.

THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO LOS
ANGELES COUNTY WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS GOING ABOVE 12 DEGREES CELSIUS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STEERING WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT SO
THERE COULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STORMS WHERE THEY MATERIALIZE ON
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL SLOW THE HEATING FROM DIRECT SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE BUT NOT
QUITE REACH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA.

MODEL DATA SHOWS THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE DOWN THE
NORTHERN CALIF COAST ON THURSDAY TOWARD THE BAY AREA INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY BUT WE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL THIS MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS...WE
SHOULD SEE 4-8 DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GETTING CLOSER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW ALONG THE CALIF COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND 12Z ECM NOW HAVE THE LOW
NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN THIS SCENARIO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FRI-SAT WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR
ONSHORE FLOW AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNINGS. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SOME MONSOON MOISTURE COULD BE PULLED WESTWARD FROM THE
HIGH DESERT BACK INTO OUR MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES JUST BELOW MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS IN CASE THE GFS WORKS OUT. THE ECM KEEPS A
CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF CALIF THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE
GFS BEGINS TO RAPIDLY BUILD A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
THE 00Z ECM AND LATEST 5-WAVE GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING A GIANT HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN U.S. A SIGNIFICANT HEAT
WAVE COULD BE IN THE WORKS NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
POINT DUE TO CONFLICTING SOLUTIONS (12Z ECM AND 00Z GEM) OF A LARGE
FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STATES BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0545Z...

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. EXCEPT FOR SOME
POSSIBLE LIFR/VLIFR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST LATE
TONIGHT THRU MID MORNING TUE...EXPECT VFR CONDS THRU THE PD. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE EVENING WITH LOCAL LLWS AND MDT
UDDF NEAR KSBA FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...15/800 PM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS
LIKELY THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE SOME LOCAL NORTHWEST
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...AND MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...15/800 PM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT/BOLDT
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT/DS
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 160258
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY
HOT WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID
WEEK DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...MAINLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.UPDATE...
IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...MAIN ISSUE IS LOW END ADVISORY
SUNDOWNER EVENT ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SBA-SMX
GRADIENT WAS -4.7 MB LAST HOUR...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DUE TO THIS GRADIENT...NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL NORTH
WIND-PRONE SPOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY UNTIL 400 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES 39/52.

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CONCERNS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM. LATEST
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES EVERYWHERE AS AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME
STRATUS/DENSE FOG TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST
CALIF. MANY VALLEY AREAS STARTED THE DAY ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED THAT SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL REACHING 105 DEGREE
CRITERIA ACROSS THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE...THE MOUNTAINS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND SOME COASTAL
AREAS WERE ALSO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT A CAP NEAR 18K FEET SHOULD
LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND CLOUDS WILL EVAPORATE BY SUNSET.
EXPECT READINGS TO BE SLOW TO COOL DOWN TONIGHT WITH MANY FOOTHILL
COMMUNITIES ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME OVERALL AS TODAY WITH POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES OF COOLING. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL RUN
UNTIL 7PM TUESDAY EVENING AND THAT STILL LOOKS ON-TRACK FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE RATHER NEUTRAL
TOMORROW WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN
CUMULUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOCAL SUNDOWNER WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH
SANTA BARBARA COAST TUESDAY EVENING.

THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO LOS
ANGELES COUNTY WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS GOING ABOVE 12 DEGREES CELSIUS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STEERING WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT SO
THERE COULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STORMS WHERE THEY MATERIALIZE ON
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL SLOW THE HEATING FROM DIRECT SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE BUT NOT
QUITE REACH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA.

MODEL DATA SHOWS THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE DOWN THE
NORTHERN CALIF COAST ON THURSDAY TOWARD THE BAY AREA INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY BUT WE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL THIS MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS...WE
SHOULD SEE 4-8 DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GETTING CLOSER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW ALONG THE CALIF COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND 12Z ECM NOW HAVE THE LOW
NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN THIS SCENARIO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FRI-SAT WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR
ONSHORE FLOW AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNINGS. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SOME MONSOON MOISTURE COULD BE PULLED WESTWARD FROM THE
HIGH DESERT BACK INTO OUR MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES JUST BELOW MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS IN CASE THE GFS WORKS OUT. THE ECM KEEPS A
CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF CALIF THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE
GFS BEGINS TO RAPIDLY BUILD A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
THE 00Z ECM AND LATEST 5-WAVE GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING A GIANT HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN U.S. A SIGNIFICANT HEAT
WAVE COULD BE IN THE WORKS NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
POINT DUE TO CONFLICTING SOLUTIONS (12Z ECM AND 00Z GEM) OF A LARGE
FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STATES BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...15/2300Z...

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. OTHER THAN SOME
LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX/KSBP OVERNIGHT...AND SOME 5-6SM BR AT
KOXR...EXPECT VFR CONDS FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF SOME
MVFR VSBYS 11Z-16Z TUESDAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...15/800 PM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS
LIKELY THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE SOME LOCAL NORTHWEST
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THIS EVNEING...AND MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...15/800 PM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT/BOLDT
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT/DS
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 160258
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY
HOT WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID
WEEK DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...MAINLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.UPDATE...
IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...MAIN ISSUE IS LOW END ADVISORY
SUNDOWNER EVENT ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SBA-SMX
GRADIENT WAS -4.7 MB LAST HOUR...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DUE TO THIS GRADIENT...NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL NORTH
WIND-PRONE SPOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY UNTIL 400 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES 39/52.

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CONCERNS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM. LATEST
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES EVERYWHERE AS AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME
STRATUS/DENSE FOG TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST
CALIF. MANY VALLEY AREAS STARTED THE DAY ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED THAT SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL REACHING 105 DEGREE
CRITERIA ACROSS THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE...THE MOUNTAINS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND SOME COASTAL
AREAS WERE ALSO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT A CAP NEAR 18K FEET SHOULD
LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND CLOUDS WILL EVAPORATE BY SUNSET.
EXPECT READINGS TO BE SLOW TO COOL DOWN TONIGHT WITH MANY FOOTHILL
COMMUNITIES ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME OVERALL AS TODAY WITH POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES OF COOLING. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL RUN
UNTIL 7PM TUESDAY EVENING AND THAT STILL LOOKS ON-TRACK FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE RATHER NEUTRAL
TOMORROW WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN
CUMULUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOCAL SUNDOWNER WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH
SANTA BARBARA COAST TUESDAY EVENING.

THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO LOS
ANGELES COUNTY WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS GOING ABOVE 12 DEGREES CELSIUS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STEERING WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT SO
THERE COULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STORMS WHERE THEY MATERIALIZE ON
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL SLOW THE HEATING FROM DIRECT SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE BUT NOT
QUITE REACH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA.

MODEL DATA SHOWS THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE DOWN THE
NORTHERN CALIF COAST ON THURSDAY TOWARD THE BAY AREA INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY BUT WE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL THIS MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS...WE
SHOULD SEE 4-8 DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GETTING CLOSER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW ALONG THE CALIF COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND 12Z ECM NOW HAVE THE LOW
NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN THIS SCENARIO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FRI-SAT WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR
ONSHORE FLOW AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNINGS. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SOME MONSOON MOISTURE COULD BE PULLED WESTWARD FROM THE
HIGH DESERT BACK INTO OUR MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES JUST BELOW MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS IN CASE THE GFS WORKS OUT. THE ECM KEEPS A
CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF CALIF THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE
GFS BEGINS TO RAPIDLY BUILD A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
THE 00Z ECM AND LATEST 5-WAVE GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING A GIANT HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN U.S. A SIGNIFICANT HEAT
WAVE COULD BE IN THE WORKS NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
POINT DUE TO CONFLICTING SOLUTIONS (12Z ECM AND 00Z GEM) OF A LARGE
FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STATES BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...15/2300Z...

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. OTHER THAN SOME
LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX/KSBP OVERNIGHT...AND SOME 5-6SM BR AT
KOXR...EXPECT VFR CONDS FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF SOME
MVFR VSBYS 11Z-16Z TUESDAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...15/800 PM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS
LIKELY THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE SOME LOCAL NORTHWEST
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THIS EVNEING...AND MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...15/800 PM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT/BOLDT
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT/DS
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 152320 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
420 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY
HOT WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST
CALIF. MANY VALLEY AREAS STARTED THE DAY ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED THAT SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL REACHING 105 DEGREE
CRITERIA ACROSS THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE...THE MOUNTAINS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND SOME COASTAL
AREAS WERE ALSO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT A CAP NEAR 18K FEET SHOULD
LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND CLOUDS WILL EVAPORATE BY SUNSET.
EXPECT READINGS TO BE SLOW TO COOL DOWN TONIGHT WITH MANY FOOTHILL
COMMUNITIES ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. A -3MB PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SANTA MARIA
TO SANTA BARBARA SHOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WEST
OF GAVIOTA THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME OVERALL AS TODAY WITH POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES OF COOLING. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL RUN
UNTIL 7PM TUESDAY EVENING AND THAT STILL LOOKS ON-TRACK FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE RATHER NEUTRAL
TOMORROW WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN
CUMULUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOCAL SUNDOWNER WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH
SANTA BARBARA COAST TUESDAY EVENING.

THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO LOS
ANGELES COUNTY WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS GOING ABOVE 12 DEGREES CELSIUS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STEERING WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT SO
THERE COULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STORMS WHERE THEY MATERIALIZE ON
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL SLOW THE HEATING FROM DIRECT SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE BUT NOT
QUITE REACH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA.

MODEL DATA SHOWS THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE DOWN THE
NORTHERN CALIF COAST ON THURSDAY TOWARD THE BAY AREA INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY BUT WE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL THIS MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS...WE
SHOULD SEE 4-8 DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GETTING CLOSER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW ALONG THE CALIF COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND 12Z ECM NOW HAVE THE LOW
NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN THIS SCENARIO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FRI-SAT WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR
ONSHORE FLOW AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNINGS. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SOME MONSOON MOISTURE COULD BE PULLED WESTWARD FROM THE
HIGH DESERT BACK INTO OUR MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES JUST BELOW MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS IN CASE THE GFS WORKS OUT. THE ECM KEEPS A
CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF CALIF THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE
GFS BEGINS TO RAPIDLY BUILD A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
THE 00Z ECM AND LATEST 5-WAVE GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING A GIANT HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN U.S. A SIGNIFICANT HEAT
WAVE COULD BE IN THE WORKS NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
POINT DUE TO CONFLICTING SOLUTIONS (12Z ECM AND 00Z GEM) OF A LARGE
FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STATES BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...15/2300Z...

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. OTHER THAN SOME
LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX/KSBP OVERNIGHT...AND SOME 5-6SM BR AT
KOXR...EXPECT VFR CONDS FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF SOME
MVFR VSBYS 11Z-16Z TUESDAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

15/200 PM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...

15/200 PM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE/BEACHES...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 152320 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
420 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY
HOT WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST
CALIF. MANY VALLEY AREAS STARTED THE DAY ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED THAT SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL REACHING 105 DEGREE
CRITERIA ACROSS THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE...THE MOUNTAINS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND SOME COASTAL
AREAS WERE ALSO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT A CAP NEAR 18K FEET SHOULD
LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND CLOUDS WILL EVAPORATE BY SUNSET.
EXPECT READINGS TO BE SLOW TO COOL DOWN TONIGHT WITH MANY FOOTHILL
COMMUNITIES ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. A -3MB PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SANTA MARIA
TO SANTA BARBARA SHOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WEST
OF GAVIOTA THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME OVERALL AS TODAY WITH POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES OF COOLING. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL RUN
UNTIL 7PM TUESDAY EVENING AND THAT STILL LOOKS ON-TRACK FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE RATHER NEUTRAL
TOMORROW WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN
CUMULUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOCAL SUNDOWNER WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH
SANTA BARBARA COAST TUESDAY EVENING.

THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO LOS
ANGELES COUNTY WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS GOING ABOVE 12 DEGREES CELSIUS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STEERING WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT SO
THERE COULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STORMS WHERE THEY MATERIALIZE ON
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL SLOW THE HEATING FROM DIRECT SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE BUT NOT
QUITE REACH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA.

MODEL DATA SHOWS THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE DOWN THE
NORTHERN CALIF COAST ON THURSDAY TOWARD THE BAY AREA INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY BUT WE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL THIS MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS...WE
SHOULD SEE 4-8 DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GETTING CLOSER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW ALONG THE CALIF COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND 12Z ECM NOW HAVE THE LOW
NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN THIS SCENARIO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FRI-SAT WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR
ONSHORE FLOW AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNINGS. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SOME MONSOON MOISTURE COULD BE PULLED WESTWARD FROM THE
HIGH DESERT BACK INTO OUR MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES JUST BELOW MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS IN CASE THE GFS WORKS OUT. THE ECM KEEPS A
CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF CALIF THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE
GFS BEGINS TO RAPIDLY BUILD A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
THE 00Z ECM AND LATEST 5-WAVE GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING A GIANT HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN U.S. A SIGNIFICANT HEAT
WAVE COULD BE IN THE WORKS NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
POINT DUE TO CONFLICTING SOLUTIONS (12Z ECM AND 00Z GEM) OF A LARGE
FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STATES BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...15/2300Z...

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. OTHER THAN SOME
LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX/KSBP OVERNIGHT...AND SOME 5-6SM BR AT
KOXR...EXPECT VFR CONDS FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF SOME
MVFR VSBYS 11Z-16Z TUESDAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

15/200 PM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...

15/200 PM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE/BEACHES...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 152105
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY
HOT WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST
CALIF. MANY VALLEY AREAS STARTED THE DAY ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED THAT SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL REACHING 105 DEGREE
CRITERIA ACROSS THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE...THE MOUNTAINS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND SOME COASTAL
AREAS WERE ALSO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT A CAP NEAR 18K FEET SHOULD
LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND CLOUDS WILL EVAPORATE BY SUNSET.
EXPECT READINGS TO BE SLOW TO COOL DOWN TONIGHT WITH MANY FOOTHILL
COMMUNITIES ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. A -3MB PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SANTA MARIA
TO SANTA BARBARA SHOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WEST
OF GAVIOTA THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME OVERALL AS TODAY WITH POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES OF COOLING. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL RUN
UNTIL 7PM TUESDAY EVENING AND THAT STILL LOOKS ON-TRACK FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE RATHER NEUTRAL
TOMORROW WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN
CUMULUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOCAL SUNDOWNER WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH
SANTA BARBARA COAST TUESDAY EVENING.

THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO LOS
ANGELES COUNTY WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS GOING ABOVE 12 DEGREES CELSIUS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STEERING WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT SO
THERE COULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STORMS WHERE THEY MATERIALIZE ON
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL SLOW THE HEATING FROM DIRECT SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE BUT NOT
QUITE REACH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA.

MODEL DATA SHOWS THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE DOWN THE
NORTHERN CALIF COAST ON THURSDAY TOWARD THE BAY AREA INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY BUT WE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL THIS MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS...WE
SHOULD SEE 4-8 DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GETTING CLOSER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW ALONG THE CALIF COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND 12Z ECM NOW HAVE THE LOW
NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN THIS SCENARIO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FRI-SAT WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR
ONSHORE FLOW AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNINGS. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SOME MONSOON MOISTURE COULD BE PULLED WESTWARD FROM THE
HIGH DESERT BACK INTO OUR MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES JUST BELOW MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS IN CASE THE GFS WORKS OUT. THE ECM KEEPS A
CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF CALIF THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE
GFS BEGINS TO RAPIDLY BUILD A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
THE 00Z ECM AND LATEST 5-WAVE GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING A GIANT HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN U.S. A SIGNIFICANT HEAT
WAVE COULD BE IN THE WORKS NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
POINT DUE TO CONFLICTING SOLUTIONS (12Z ECM AND 00Z GEM) OF A LARGE
FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STATES BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1800Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TONIGHT
AT KSBP AND KSMX...WITH SIMILAR TIMING AS LAST EVENING.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS 16/10Z - 16/16Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF LIFR
CONDS 16/10Z - 16/16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

15/200 PM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...

15/200 PM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 152105
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY
HOT WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST
CALIF. MANY VALLEY AREAS STARTED THE DAY ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED THAT SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL REACHING 105 DEGREE
CRITERIA ACROSS THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE...THE MOUNTAINS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND SOME COASTAL
AREAS WERE ALSO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT A CAP NEAR 18K FEET SHOULD
LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND CLOUDS WILL EVAPORATE BY SUNSET.
EXPECT READINGS TO BE SLOW TO COOL DOWN TONIGHT WITH MANY FOOTHILL
COMMUNITIES ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. A -3MB PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SANTA MARIA
TO SANTA BARBARA SHOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WEST
OF GAVIOTA THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME OVERALL AS TODAY WITH POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES OF COOLING. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL RUN
UNTIL 7PM TUESDAY EVENING AND THAT STILL LOOKS ON-TRACK FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE RATHER NEUTRAL
TOMORROW WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN
CUMULUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOCAL SUNDOWNER WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH
SANTA BARBARA COAST TUESDAY EVENING.

THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO LOS
ANGELES COUNTY WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS GOING ABOVE 12 DEGREES CELSIUS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STEERING WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT SO
THERE COULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STORMS WHERE THEY MATERIALIZE ON
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL SLOW THE HEATING FROM DIRECT SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE BUT NOT
QUITE REACH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA.

MODEL DATA SHOWS THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE DOWN THE
NORTHERN CALIF COAST ON THURSDAY TOWARD THE BAY AREA INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY BUT WE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL THIS MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS...WE
SHOULD SEE 4-8 DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GETTING CLOSER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW ALONG THE CALIF COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND 12Z ECM NOW HAVE THE LOW
NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN THIS SCENARIO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FRI-SAT WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR
ONSHORE FLOW AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNINGS. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SOME MONSOON MOISTURE COULD BE PULLED WESTWARD FROM THE
HIGH DESERT BACK INTO OUR MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES JUST BELOW MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS IN CASE THE GFS WORKS OUT. THE ECM KEEPS A
CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF CALIF THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE
GFS BEGINS TO RAPIDLY BUILD A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
THE 00Z ECM AND LATEST 5-WAVE GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING A GIANT HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN U.S. A SIGNIFICANT HEAT
WAVE COULD BE IN THE WORKS NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
POINT DUE TO CONFLICTING SOLUTIONS (12Z ECM AND 00Z GEM) OF A LARGE
FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STATES BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1800Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TONIGHT
AT KSBP AND KSMX...WITH SIMILAR TIMING AS LAST EVENING.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS 16/10Z - 16/16Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF LIFR
CONDS 16/10Z - 16/16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

15/200 PM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...

15/200 PM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 151852
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1150 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.  SLIGHT COOLING
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BUT HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE SO HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR.  MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... THEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS ARIZONA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH VERY
HOT CONDITIONS AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS. THIS MORNINGS BALLOON
SOUNDINGS DID SHOW A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND WE ARE
SEEING TEMPS IN THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...SAN FERNANDO AND SAN
GABRIEL VALLEYS RUNNING ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...WE STILL EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 103
TO 111 DEGREES ACROSS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AREAS WHICH
INCLUDES THE LA COUNTY VALLEYS AND SANTA MONICA MTNS TODAY.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WERE LESS ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING AND WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE RATHER WEAK TODAY BUT SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE FROM SANTA MARIA TO
SANTA BARBARA WHERE ANOTHER WEAK SUNDOWNER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS
TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE HEAT WAVE WITH
SOME RELIEF COMING ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ON HURRICANE ODILE IS
THAT THE TRACK WILL REMAIN NEAR THE GULF OF CA AND WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION BY THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
MAINLY ACROSS LA COUNTY STARTING WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN PAC ON WED...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...TEMPS AT 950
MB WILL DROP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION ON WED.
HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IF
TRUE...WED MAY ACTUALLY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 2 AM PDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 80
NAUTICAL MILES NW OF CABO SAN LUCAS. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER...THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110
KNOTS (ABOUT 125 MPH) AT LANDFALL TIED IT WITH OLIVIA IN 1967 AS THE
STRONGEST HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL (IN THE SATELLITE ERA) IN THE
STATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SINCE INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE
HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OR JUST OFF COAST OF
BAJA CA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER LOW IS THE ERN PACIFIC IS HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS AFTER WED. THE GFS TAKES IT ACROSS NRN CA
THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE EC SHOWS IT EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST THU AND DROPPING TO THE WEST OF MONTEREY THU
NIGHT. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DRAWING SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE NWD INTO THE REGION THU AND THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO ITS MOISTURE
BEING SHUNTED TO THE E OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES FOR THU AND
THU NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED ON THU. THE EC
ACTUALLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OFF THE COAST THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN MOVING INTO NRN CA ON SUN...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
RIDGING BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRYING FRI...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1800Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TONIGHT
AT KSBP AND KSMX...WITH SIMILAR TIMING AS LAST EVENING.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS 16/10Z - 16/16Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF LIFR
CONDS 16/10Z - 16/16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

15/900 AM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...

15/900 AM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...EB/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 151852
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1150 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.  SLIGHT COOLING
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BUT HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE SO HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR.  MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... THEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS ARIZONA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH VERY
HOT CONDITIONS AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS. THIS MORNINGS BALLOON
SOUNDINGS DID SHOW A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND WE ARE
SEEING TEMPS IN THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...SAN FERNANDO AND SAN
GABRIEL VALLEYS RUNNING ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...WE STILL EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 103
TO 111 DEGREES ACROSS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AREAS WHICH
INCLUDES THE LA COUNTY VALLEYS AND SANTA MONICA MTNS TODAY.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WERE LESS ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING AND WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE RATHER WEAK TODAY BUT SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE FROM SANTA MARIA TO
SANTA BARBARA WHERE ANOTHER WEAK SUNDOWNER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS
TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE HEAT WAVE WITH
SOME RELIEF COMING ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ON HURRICANE ODILE IS
THAT THE TRACK WILL REMAIN NEAR THE GULF OF CA AND WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION BY THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
MAINLY ACROSS LA COUNTY STARTING WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN PAC ON WED...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...TEMPS AT 950
MB WILL DROP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION ON WED.
HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IF
TRUE...WED MAY ACTUALLY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 2 AM PDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 80
NAUTICAL MILES NW OF CABO SAN LUCAS. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER...THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110
KNOTS (ABOUT 125 MPH) AT LANDFALL TIED IT WITH OLIVIA IN 1967 AS THE
STRONGEST HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL (IN THE SATELLITE ERA) IN THE
STATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SINCE INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE
HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OR JUST OFF COAST OF
BAJA CA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER LOW IS THE ERN PACIFIC IS HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS AFTER WED. THE GFS TAKES IT ACROSS NRN CA
THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE EC SHOWS IT EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST THU AND DROPPING TO THE WEST OF MONTEREY THU
NIGHT. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DRAWING SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE NWD INTO THE REGION THU AND THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO ITS MOISTURE
BEING SHUNTED TO THE E OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES FOR THU AND
THU NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED ON THU. THE EC
ACTUALLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OFF THE COAST THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN MOVING INTO NRN CA ON SUN...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
RIDGING BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRYING FRI...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1800Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TONIGHT
AT KSBP AND KSMX...WITH SIMILAR TIMING AS LAST EVENING.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS 16/10Z - 16/16Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF LIFR
CONDS 16/10Z - 16/16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

15/900 AM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...

15/900 AM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...EB/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 151652
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.  SLIGHT COOLING
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BUT HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE SO HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR.  MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... THEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS ARIZONA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH VERY
HOT CONDITIONS AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS. THIS MORNINGS BALLOON
SOUNDINGS DID SHOW A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND WE ARE
SEEING TEMPS IN THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...SAN FERNANDO AND SAN
GABRIEL VALLEYS RUNNING ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...WE STILL EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 103
TO 111 DEGREES ACROSS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AREAS WHICH
INCLUDES THE LA COUNTY VALLEYS AND SANTA MONICA MTNS TODAY.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WERE LESS ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING AND WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE RATHER WEAK TODAY BUT SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE FROM SANTA MARIA TO
SANTA BARBARA WHERE ANOTHER WEAK SUNDOWNER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS
TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE HEAT WAVE WITH
SOME RELIEF COMING ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ON HURRICANE ODILE IS
THAT THE TRACK WILL REMAIN NEAR THE GULF OF CA AND WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION BY THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
MAINLY ACROSS LA COUNTY STARTING WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN PAC ON WED...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...TEMPS AT 950
MB WILL DROP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION ON WED.
HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IF
TRUE...WED MAY ACTUALLY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 2 AM PDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 80
NAUTICAL MILES NW OF CABO SAN LUCAS. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER...THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110
KNOTS (ABOUT 125 MPH) AT LANDFALL TIED IT WITH OLIVIA IN 1967 AS THE
STRONGEST HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL (IN THE SATELLITE ERA) IN THE
STATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SINCE INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE
HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OR JUST OFF COAST OF
BAJA CA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER LOW IS THE ERN PACIFIC IS HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS AFTER WED. THE GFS TAKES IT ACROSS NRN CA
THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE EC SHOWS IT EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST THU AND DROPPING TO THE WEST OF MONTEREY THU
NIGHT. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DRAWING SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE NWD INTO THE REGION THU AND THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO ITS MOISTURE
BEING SHUNTED TO THE E OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES FOR THU AND
THU NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED ON THU. THE EC
ACTUALLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OFF THE COAST THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN MOVING INTO NRN CA ON SUN...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
RIDGING BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRYING FRI...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1130Z

MARINE LAYER LARGELY ABSENT AND IFR CIGS WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
KLPC-KSMX AREA THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS
KOXR AND SOUTHWARD AFTER 10Z TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT OF 5SM HZ
13Z-17Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVC006 FROM 10Z-17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

15/900 AM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...

15/900 AM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...EB/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 151652
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.  SLIGHT COOLING
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BUT HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE SO HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR.  MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... THEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS ARIZONA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH VERY
HOT CONDITIONS AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS. THIS MORNINGS BALLOON
SOUNDINGS DID SHOW A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND WE ARE
SEEING TEMPS IN THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...SAN FERNANDO AND SAN
GABRIEL VALLEYS RUNNING ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...WE STILL EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 103
TO 111 DEGREES ACROSS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AREAS WHICH
INCLUDES THE LA COUNTY VALLEYS AND SANTA MONICA MTNS TODAY.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WERE LESS ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING AND WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE RATHER WEAK TODAY BUT SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE FROM SANTA MARIA TO
SANTA BARBARA WHERE ANOTHER WEAK SUNDOWNER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS
TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE HEAT WAVE WITH
SOME RELIEF COMING ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ON HURRICANE ODILE IS
THAT THE TRACK WILL REMAIN NEAR THE GULF OF CA AND WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION BY THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
MAINLY ACROSS LA COUNTY STARTING WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN PAC ON WED...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...TEMPS AT 950
MB WILL DROP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION ON WED.
HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IF
TRUE...WED MAY ACTUALLY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 2 AM PDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 80
NAUTICAL MILES NW OF CABO SAN LUCAS. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER...THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110
KNOTS (ABOUT 125 MPH) AT LANDFALL TIED IT WITH OLIVIA IN 1967 AS THE
STRONGEST HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL (IN THE SATELLITE ERA) IN THE
STATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SINCE INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE
HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OR JUST OFF COAST OF
BAJA CA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER LOW IS THE ERN PACIFIC IS HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS AFTER WED. THE GFS TAKES IT ACROSS NRN CA
THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE EC SHOWS IT EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST THU AND DROPPING TO THE WEST OF MONTEREY THU
NIGHT. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DRAWING SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE NWD INTO THE REGION THU AND THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO ITS MOISTURE
BEING SHUNTED TO THE E OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES FOR THU AND
THU NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED ON THU. THE EC
ACTUALLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OFF THE COAST THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN MOVING INTO NRN CA ON SUN...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
RIDGING BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRYING FRI...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1130Z

MARINE LAYER LARGELY ABSENT AND IFR CIGS WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
KLPC-KSMX AREA THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS
KOXR AND SOUTHWARD AFTER 10Z TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT OF 5SM HZ
13Z-17Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVC006 FROM 10Z-17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

15/900 AM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...

15/900 AM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...EB/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 151457
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
740 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.  SLIGHT COOLING
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BUT HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE SO HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR.  MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... THEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAVE
PUSHED INTO IMMEDIATE BEACH AREAS OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. ANY CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE MORNING. A STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL LINGER
OVER ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY HOT WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF
INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN CA THROUGH TUE. MAX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE THAT OCCURRED ON
SUNDAY...LIKELY FLUCTUATING BY NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH
DAY. ANY CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE HARDLY NOTICEABLE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUSTIFY THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE VLYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE SANTA MONICA
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUE EVENING. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO
WARNING LEVELS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AS WELL...BUT
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW FOR THE MOST PART. SOME MOSTLY FLAT
CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON
SUNDAY...AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO WAS REPORTED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY
MTNS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE THREAT.

TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOS ANGELES BASIN. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS MAY NOT
HAVE LOWS BELOW 80 DEGREES TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS LOOK TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE INTO THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUE EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE MOST PARTS.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN PAC ON WED...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...TEMPS AT 950
MB WILL DROP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION ON WED.
HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IF
TRUE...WED MAY ACTUALLY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 2 AM PDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 80
NAUTICAL MILES NW OF CABO SAN LUCAS. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER...THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110
KNOTS (ABOUT 125 MPH) AT LANDFALL TIED IT WITH OLIVIA IN 1967 AS THE
STRONGEST HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL (IN THE SATELLITE ERA) IN THE
STATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SINCE INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE
HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OR JUST OFF COAST OF
BAJA CA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER LOW IS THE ERN PACIFIC IS HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS AFTER WED. THE GFS TAKES IT ACROSS NRN CA
THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE EC SHOWS IT EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST THU AND DROPPING TO THE WEST OF MONTEREY THU
NIGHT. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DRAWING SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE NWD INTO THE REGION THU AND THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO ITS MOISTURE
BEING SHUNTED TO THE E OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES FOR THU AND
THU NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED ON THU. THE EC
ACTUALLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OFF THE COAST THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN MOVING INTO NRN CA ON SUN...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
RIDGING BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRYING FRI...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1130Z

MARINE LAYER LARGELY ABSENT AND IFR CIGS WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
KLPC-KSMX AREA THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS
KOXR AND SOUTHWARD AFTER 10Z TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT OF 5SM HZ
13Z-17Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVC006 FROM 10Z-17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...15/300 AM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

.BEACHES...15/300 AM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND AN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN ODILE`S TRACK COULD BRING INCREASED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 151457
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
740 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.  SLIGHT COOLING
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BUT HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE SO HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR.  MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... THEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAVE
PUSHED INTO IMMEDIATE BEACH AREAS OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. ANY CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE MORNING. A STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL LINGER
OVER ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY HOT WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF
INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN CA THROUGH TUE. MAX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE THAT OCCURRED ON
SUNDAY...LIKELY FLUCTUATING BY NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH
DAY. ANY CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE HARDLY NOTICEABLE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUSTIFY THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE VLYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE SANTA MONICA
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUE EVENING. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO
WARNING LEVELS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AS WELL...BUT
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW FOR THE MOST PART. SOME MOSTLY FLAT
CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON
SUNDAY...AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO WAS REPORTED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY
MTNS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE THREAT.

TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOS ANGELES BASIN. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS MAY NOT
HAVE LOWS BELOW 80 DEGREES TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS LOOK TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE INTO THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUE EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE MOST PARTS.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN PAC ON WED...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...TEMPS AT 950
MB WILL DROP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION ON WED.
HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IF
TRUE...WED MAY ACTUALLY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 2 AM PDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 80
NAUTICAL MILES NW OF CABO SAN LUCAS. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER...THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110
KNOTS (ABOUT 125 MPH) AT LANDFALL TIED IT WITH OLIVIA IN 1967 AS THE
STRONGEST HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL (IN THE SATELLITE ERA) IN THE
STATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SINCE INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE
HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OR JUST OFF COAST OF
BAJA CA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER LOW IS THE ERN PACIFIC IS HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS AFTER WED. THE GFS TAKES IT ACROSS NRN CA
THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE EC SHOWS IT EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST THU AND DROPPING TO THE WEST OF MONTEREY THU
NIGHT. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DRAWING SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE NWD INTO THE REGION THU AND THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO ITS MOISTURE
BEING SHUNTED TO THE E OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES FOR THU AND
THU NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED ON THU. THE EC
ACTUALLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OFF THE COAST THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN MOVING INTO NRN CA ON SUN...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
RIDGING BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRYING FRI...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1130Z

MARINE LAYER LARGELY ABSENT AND IFR CIGS WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
KLPC-KSMX AREA THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS
KOXR AND SOUTHWARD AFTER 10Z TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT OF 5SM HZ
13Z-17Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVC006 FROM 10Z-17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...15/300 AM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

.BEACHES...15/300 AM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND AN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN ODILE`S TRACK COULD BRING INCREASED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 151208
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VERY HOT
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHT COOLING IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAVE
PUSHED INTO IMMEDIATE BEACH AREAS OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. ANY CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE MORNING. A STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL LINGER
OVER ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY HOT WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF
INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN CA THROUGH TUE. MAX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE THAT OCCURRED ON
SUNDAY...LIKELY FLUCTUATING BY NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH
DAY. ANY CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE HARDLY NOTICEABLE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUSTIFY THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE VLYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE SANTA MONICA
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUE EVENING. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO
WARNING LEVELS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AS WELL...BUT
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW FOR THE MOST PART. SOME MOSTLY FLAT
CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON
SUNDAY...AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO WAS REPORTED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY
MTNS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE THREAT.

TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOS ANGELES BASIN. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS MAY NOT
HAVE LOWS BELOW 80 DEGREES TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS LOOK TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE INTO THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUE EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE MOST PARTS.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN PAC ON WED...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...TEMPS AT 950
MB WILL DROP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION ON WED.
HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IF
TRUE...WED MAY ACTUALLY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 2 AM PDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 80
NAUTICAL MILES NW OF CABO SAN LUCAS. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER...THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110
KNOTS (ABOUT 125 MPH) AT LANDFALL TIED IT WITH OLIVIA IN 1967 AS THE
STRONGEST HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL (IN THE SATELLITE ERA) IN THE
STATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SINCE INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE
HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OR JUST OFF COAST OF
BAJA CA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER LOW IS THE ERN PACIFIC IS HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS AFTER WED. THE GFS TAKES IT ACROSS NRN CA
THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE EC SHOWS IT EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST THU AND DROPPING TO THE WEST OF MONTEREY THU
NIGHT. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DRAWING SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE NWD INTO THE REGION THU AND THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO ITS MOISTURE
BEING SHUNTED TO THE E OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES FOR THU AND
THU NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED ON THU. THE EC
ACTUALLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OFF THE COAST THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN MOVING INTO NRN CA ON SUN...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
RIDGING BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRYING FRI...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...

15/1130Z

MARINE LAYER LARGELY ABSENT AND IFR CIGS WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
KLPC-KSMX AREA THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS
KOXR AND SOUTHWARD AFTER 10Z TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT OF 5SM HZ
13Z-17Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVC006 FROM 10Z-17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

15/300 AM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

.BEACHES...

15/300 AM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND AN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN ODILE`S TRACK COULD BRING INCREASED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 151208
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VERY HOT
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHT COOLING IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAVE
PUSHED INTO IMMEDIATE BEACH AREAS OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. ANY CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE MORNING. A STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL LINGER
OVER ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY HOT WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF
INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN CA THROUGH TUE. MAX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE THAT OCCURRED ON
SUNDAY...LIKELY FLUCTUATING BY NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH
DAY. ANY CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE HARDLY NOTICEABLE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUSTIFY THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE VLYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE SANTA MONICA
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUE EVENING. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO
WARNING LEVELS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AS WELL...BUT
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW FOR THE MOST PART. SOME MOSTLY FLAT
CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON
SUNDAY...AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO WAS REPORTED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY
MTNS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE THREAT.

TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOS ANGELES BASIN. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS MAY NOT
HAVE LOWS BELOW 80 DEGREES TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS LOOK TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE INTO THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUE EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE MOST PARTS.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN PAC ON WED...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...TEMPS AT 950
MB WILL DROP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION ON WED.
HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IF
TRUE...WED MAY ACTUALLY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 2 AM PDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 80
NAUTICAL MILES NW OF CABO SAN LUCAS. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER...THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110
KNOTS (ABOUT 125 MPH) AT LANDFALL TIED IT WITH OLIVIA IN 1967 AS THE
STRONGEST HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL (IN THE SATELLITE ERA) IN THE
STATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SINCE INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE
HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OR JUST OFF COAST OF
BAJA CA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER LOW IS THE ERN PACIFIC IS HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS AFTER WED. THE GFS TAKES IT ACROSS NRN CA
THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE EC SHOWS IT EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST THU AND DROPPING TO THE WEST OF MONTEREY THU
NIGHT. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DRAWING SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE NWD INTO THE REGION THU AND THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO ITS MOISTURE
BEING SHUNTED TO THE E OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES FOR THU AND
THU NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED ON THU. THE EC
ACTUALLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OFF THE COAST THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN MOVING INTO NRN CA ON SUN...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
RIDGING BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRYING FRI...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...

15/1130Z

MARINE LAYER LARGELY ABSENT AND IFR CIGS WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
KLPC-KSMX AREA THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS
KOXR AND SOUTHWARD AFTER 10Z TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT OF 5SM HZ
13Z-17Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVC006 FROM 10Z-17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

15/300 AM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

.BEACHES...

15/300 AM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND AN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN ODILE`S TRACK COULD BRING INCREASED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 151126
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VERY HOT
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHT COOLING IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH WEAKENS SOME. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. STILL
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAVE
PUSHED INTO IMMEDIATE BEACH AREAS OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. ANY CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING. A STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY HOT WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWESTERN CA THROUGH TUE. MAX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS SHOULD
BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE THAT OCCURRED ON SUNDAY...LIKELY FLUCTUATING
BY NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY. ANY CHANGES IN MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE HARDLY NOTICEABLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES JUSTIFY THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE VLYS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUE EVENING.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO WARNING LEVELS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AS WELL...BUT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW
FOR THE MOST PART. SOME MOSTLY FLAT CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MTNS OF
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON SUNDAY...AND A SPRINKLE OF TWO WAS
REPORTED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH THE MAY
BE TOO MUCH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FOR ANY REAL CONVECTIVE THREAT.

TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOS ANGELES BASIN. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS MAY NOT
HAVE LOWS BELOW 80 DEGREES TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS LOOK TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE INTO THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUE EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE MOST PARTS.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN PAC ON WED...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...TEMPS AT 950
MB WILL DROP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION ON WED.
HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IF
TRUE...WED MAY ACTUALLY EVEN BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 2 AM PDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR CABO
SAN LUCAS. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...THE
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 KNOTS AT LANDFALL TIED
IT WITH OLIVIA IN 1967 AS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE SATELLITE ERA IN THE STATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
SINCE INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACK NORTH
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OR JUST OFF COAST OF BAJA CA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER LOW IS THE ERN PACIFIC IS HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS AFTER WED. THE GFS TAKES IT ACROSS NRN CA
THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE EC SHOWS IT EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST THU AND DROPPING TO THE WEST OF MONTEREY THU
NIGHT. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DRAWING SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE NWD INTO THE REGION THU AND THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO ITS MOISTURE
BEING SHUNTED TO THE E OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES FOR THU AND
THU NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED ON THU. THE EC
ACTUALLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OFF THE COAST THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN MOVING INTO NRN CA ON SUN...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
RIDGING BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRYING FRI...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...

15/1130Z

MARINE LAYER LARGELY ABSENT AND IFR CIGS WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
KLPC-KSMX AREA THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS
KOXR AND SOUTHWARD AFTER 10Z TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT OF 5SM HZ
13Z-17Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVC006 FROM 10Z-17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

15/300 AM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

.BEACHES...

15/300 AM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND AN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN ODILE`S TRACK COULD BRING INCREASED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 151126
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VERY HOT
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHT COOLING IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH WEAKENS SOME. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. STILL
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAVE
PUSHED INTO IMMEDIATE BEACH AREAS OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. ANY CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING. A STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY HOT WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWESTERN CA THROUGH TUE. MAX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS SHOULD
BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE THAT OCCURRED ON SUNDAY...LIKELY FLUCTUATING
BY NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY. ANY CHANGES IN MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE HARDLY NOTICEABLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES JUSTIFY THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE VLYS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUE EVENING.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO WARNING LEVELS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AS WELL...BUT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW
FOR THE MOST PART. SOME MOSTLY FLAT CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MTNS OF
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON SUNDAY...AND A SPRINKLE OF TWO WAS
REPORTED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH THE MAY
BE TOO MUCH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FOR ANY REAL CONVECTIVE THREAT.

TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOS ANGELES BASIN. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS MAY NOT
HAVE LOWS BELOW 80 DEGREES TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS LOOK TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE INTO THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUE EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE MOST PARTS.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN PAC ON WED...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...TEMPS AT 950
MB WILL DROP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION ON WED.
HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IF
TRUE...WED MAY ACTUALLY EVEN BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 2 AM PDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR CABO
SAN LUCAS. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...THE
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 KNOTS AT LANDFALL TIED
IT WITH OLIVIA IN 1967 AS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE SATELLITE ERA IN THE STATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
SINCE INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACK NORTH
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OR JUST OFF COAST OF BAJA CA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER LOW IS THE ERN PACIFIC IS HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS AFTER WED. THE GFS TAKES IT ACROSS NRN CA
THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE EC SHOWS IT EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST THU AND DROPPING TO THE WEST OF MONTEREY THU
NIGHT. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DRAWING SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE NWD INTO THE REGION THU AND THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO ITS MOISTURE
BEING SHUNTED TO THE E OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES FOR THU AND
THU NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED ON THU. THE EC
ACTUALLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OFF THE COAST THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN MOVING INTO NRN CA ON SUN...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
RIDGING BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRYING FRI...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...

15/1130Z

MARINE LAYER LARGELY ABSENT AND IFR CIGS WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
KLPC-KSMX AREA THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS
KOXR AND SOUTHWARD AFTER 10Z TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT OF 5SM HZ
13Z-17Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVC006 FROM 10Z-17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

15/300 AM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

.BEACHES...

15/300 AM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND AN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN ODILE`S TRACK COULD BRING INCREASED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 151107
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
329 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VERY HOT
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHT COOLING IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH WEAKENS SOME. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. STILL
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAVE
PUSHED INTO IMMEDIATE BEACH AREAS OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. ANY CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING. A STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY HOT WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWESTERN CA THROUGH TUE. MAX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS SHOULD
BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE THAT OCCURRED ON SUNDAY...LIKELY FLUCTUATING
BY NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY. ANY CHANGES IN MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE HARDLY NOTICEABLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES JUSTIFY THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE VLYS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUE EVENING.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO WARNING LEVELS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AS WELL...BUT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW
FOR THE MOST PART. SOME MOSTLY FLAT CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MTNS OF
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON SUNDAY...AND A SPRINKLE OF TWO WAS
REPORTED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH THE MAY
BE TOO MUCH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FOR ANY REAL CONVECTIVE THREAT.

TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOS ANGELES BASIN. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS MAY NOT
HAVE LOWS BELOW 80 DEGREES TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS LOOK TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE INTO THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUE EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE MOST PARTS.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN PAC ON WED...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...TEMPS AT 950
MB WILL DROP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION ON WED.
HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IF
TRUE...WED MAY ACTUALLY EVEN BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 2 AM PDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR CABO
SAN LUCAS. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...THE
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 KNOTS AT LANDFALL TIED
IT WITH OLIVIA IN 1967 AS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE SATELLITE ERA IN THE STATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
SINCE INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACK NORTH
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OR JUST OFF COAST OF BAJA CA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER LOW IS THE ERN PACIFIC IS HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS AFTER WED. THE GFS TAKES IT ACROSS NRN CA
THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE EC SHOWS IT EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST THU AND DROPPING TO THE WEST OF MONTEREY THU
NIGHT. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DRAWING SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE NWD INTO THE REGION THU AND THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO ITS MOISTURE
BEING SHUNTED TO THE E OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES FOR THU AND
THU NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED ON THU. THE EC
ACTUALLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OFF THE COAST THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN MOVING INTO NRN CA ON SUN...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
RIDGING BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRYING FRI...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

15/300 AM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

.BEACHES...

15/300 AM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND AN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN ODILE`S TRACK COULD BRING INCREASED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 151107
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
329 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VERY HOT
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHT COOLING IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH WEAKENS SOME. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. STILL
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAVE
PUSHED INTO IMMEDIATE BEACH AREAS OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. ANY CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING. A STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY HOT WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWESTERN CA THROUGH TUE. MAX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS SHOULD
BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE THAT OCCURRED ON SUNDAY...LIKELY FLUCTUATING
BY NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY. ANY CHANGES IN MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE HARDLY NOTICEABLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES JUSTIFY THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE VLYS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUE EVENING.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO WARNING LEVELS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AS WELL...BUT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW
FOR THE MOST PART. SOME MOSTLY FLAT CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MTNS OF
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON SUNDAY...AND A SPRINKLE OF TWO WAS
REPORTED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH THE MAY
BE TOO MUCH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FOR ANY REAL CONVECTIVE THREAT.

TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOS ANGELES BASIN. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS MAY NOT
HAVE LOWS BELOW 80 DEGREES TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS LOOK TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE INTO THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUE EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE MOST PARTS.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN PAC ON WED...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...TEMPS AT 950
MB WILL DROP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION ON WED.
HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IF
TRUE...WED MAY ACTUALLY EVEN BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 2 AM PDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR CABO
SAN LUCAS. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...THE
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 KNOTS AT LANDFALL TIED
IT WITH OLIVIA IN 1967 AS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE SATELLITE ERA IN THE STATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
SINCE INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACK NORTH
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OR JUST OFF COAST OF BAJA CA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER LOW IS THE ERN PACIFIC IS HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS AFTER WED. THE GFS TAKES IT ACROSS NRN CA
THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE EC SHOWS IT EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST THU AND DROPPING TO THE WEST OF MONTEREY THU
NIGHT. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DRAWING SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE NWD INTO THE REGION THU AND THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO ITS MOISTURE
BEING SHUNTED TO THE E OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES FOR THU AND
THU NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED ON THU. THE EC
ACTUALLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OFF THE COAST THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN MOVING INTO NRN CA ON SUN...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
RIDGING BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRYING FRI...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

15/300 AM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

.BEACHES...

15/300 AM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND AN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN ODILE`S TRACK COULD BRING INCREASED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 151106
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
329 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VERY HOT
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHT COOLING IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH WEAKENS SOME. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. STILL
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAVE
PUSHED INTO IMMEDIATE BEACH AREAS OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. ANY CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING. A STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY HOT WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWESTERN CA THROUGH TUE. MAX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS SHOULD
BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE THAT OCCURRED ON SUNDAY...LIKELY FLUCTUATING
BY NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY. ANY CHANGES IN MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE HARDLY NOTICEABLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES JUSTIFY THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE VLYS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUE EVENING.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO WARNING LEVELS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AS WELL...BUT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW
FOR THE MOST PART. SOME MOSTLY FLAT CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MTNS OF
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON SUNDAY...AND A SPRINKLE OF TWO WAS
REPORTED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH THE MAY
BE TOO MUCH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FOR ANY REAL CONVECTIVE THREAT.

TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOS ANGELES BASIN. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS MAY NOT
HAVE LOWS BELOW 80 DEGREES TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS LOOK TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE INTO THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUE EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE MOST PARTS.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN PAC ON WED...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...TEMPS AT 950
MB WILL DROP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION ON WED.
HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IF
TRUE...WED MAY ACTUALLY EVEN BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 2 AM PDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR CABO
SAN LUCAS. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...THE
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 KNOTS AT LANDFALL TIED
IT WITH OLIVIA IN 1967 AS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE SATELLITE ERA IN THE STATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
SINCE INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACK NORTH
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OR JUST OFF COAST OF BAJA CA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER LOW IS THE ERN PACIFIC IS HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS AFTER WED. THE GFS TAKES IT ACROSS NRN CA
THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE EC SHOWS IT EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST THU AND DROPPING TO THE WEST OF MONTEREY THU
NIGHT. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DRAWING SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE NWD INTO THE REGION THU AND THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO ITS MOISTURE
BEING SHUNTED TO THE E OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES FOR THU AND
THU NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED ON THU. THE EC
ACTUALLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OFF THE COAST THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN MOVING INTO NRN CA ON SUN...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
RIDGING BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRYING FRI...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MARINE...

15/300 AM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...
AVIATION/MARINE...
SYNOPSIS...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 151106
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
329 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VERY HOT
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHT COOLING IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH WEAKENS SOME. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. STILL
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAVE
PUSHED INTO IMMEDIATE BEACH AREAS OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. ANY CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING. A STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY HOT WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWESTERN CA THROUGH TUE. MAX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS SHOULD
BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE THAT OCCURRED ON SUNDAY...LIKELY FLUCTUATING
BY NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY. ANY CHANGES IN MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE HARDLY NOTICEABLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES JUSTIFY THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE VLYS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUE EVENING.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO WARNING LEVELS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS AS WELL...BUT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW
FOR THE MOST PART. SOME MOSTLY FLAT CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MTNS OF
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON SUNDAY...AND A SPRINKLE OF TWO WAS
REPORTED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH THE MAY
BE TOO MUCH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FOR ANY REAL CONVECTIVE THREAT.

TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOS ANGELES BASIN. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS MAY NOT
HAVE LOWS BELOW 80 DEGREES TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS LOOK TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE INTO THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUE EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE MOST PARTS.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN PAC ON WED...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...TEMPS AT 950
MB WILL DROP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION ON WED.
HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IF
TRUE...WED MAY ACTUALLY EVEN BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 2 AM PDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR CABO
SAN LUCAS. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...THE
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 KNOTS AT LANDFALL TIED
IT WITH OLIVIA IN 1967 AS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE SATELLITE ERA IN THE STATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
SINCE INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACK NORTH
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OR JUST OFF COAST OF BAJA CA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER LOW IS THE ERN PACIFIC IS HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS AFTER WED. THE GFS TAKES IT ACROSS NRN CA
THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE EC SHOWS IT EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST THU AND DROPPING TO THE WEST OF MONTEREY THU
NIGHT. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DRAWING SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE NWD INTO THE REGION THU AND THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO ITS MOISTURE
BEING SHUNTED TO THE E OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES FOR THU AND
THU NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED ON THU. THE EC
ACTUALLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OFF THE COAST THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN MOVING INTO NRN CA ON SUN...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
RIDGING BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRYING FRI...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MARINE...

15/300 AM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...
AVIATION/MARINE...
SYNOPSIS...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 151011 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPDATED MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
VERY HOT WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.UPDATE...

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH THE AXIS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY. A HOT AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND DOWNRIGHT HOT
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR MONDAY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS...1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES...AND 850 MB AND 950 MB ALL
TREND LOWER OR COOLER FOR MONDAY. 00Z NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT ONSHORE TREND FOR TOMORROW...LIKELY COOLING
THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES IN THE PACKAGE
WILL BE TRENDED COOLER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

A WEAK SUNDOWNER WIND EVENT HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING. KSBA-KSMX
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED TO AROUND -4 MB THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK. NO WIND
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT...BUT WINDS
ALOFT INCREASE AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN OVER THE
COMING DAYS. THERMAL SUPPORT IS BEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST TO DETERIORATE OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED AS
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS GET TO THE HANDLE THE WEATHER
SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...950 MB TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY BUT THE
HOT AIR MASS AND POOR OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL RESULT IN A THIRD
VERY HOT DAY IN A ROW WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
ALL EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS LOOK ON-TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
AND CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO AVOID STRENUOUS
EXERCISE...WORK...AND EXPOSURE DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS LOWER ABOUT 20DM AND WE SHOULD SEE INCREASED
HUMIDITY AND POSSIBLE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH. HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH IS A MAJOR CATEGORY 4
CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST. A SURGE OF HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES MOVES INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY
LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
NORTHWEST CA WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CURRENT FORECASTS
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE A STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE
REMNANT TROPICAL CYCLONE MOISTURE SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. GFS/EM/GEM MODELS ALL TEND
TO HAVE A DIFFERENT OUTCOME WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING EITHER
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OR SOMEPLACE IN EASTERN CA BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN HOW MUCH OF A
CONVECTIVE THREAT WE WILL SEE ON THU-FRI. RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE
IDEA OF ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY FOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY ON
THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT THE MOISTURE EAST OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY.
TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING...WILL EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS WITH MORE REASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0525Z.
XPCT AREAS OF LOW CLDS/LOCALLY DENSE FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDS ON
THE CENTRAL COAST AND POSSIBLY THE SANTA YNEZ VLY OVERNIGHT THRU MID
MORNING MON. OTHERWISE...XPCT VFR CONDS THRU THE PD. THERE MAY BE
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR
CONDS NEAR THE BEACHES. LOCAL LLWS/MDT UDDFS NEAR KSBA THRU LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS BELOW PASSES OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z
AND 16Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...

15/300 AM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...

15/300 AM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND AN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN ODILE`S TRACK COULD BRING INCREASED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/BOLDT
AVIATION...DB
MARINE/BEACHES...ASR
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 151011 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPDATED MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
VERY HOT WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.UPDATE...

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH THE AXIS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY. A HOT AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND DOWNRIGHT HOT
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR MONDAY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS...1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES...AND 850 MB AND 950 MB ALL
TREND LOWER OR COOLER FOR MONDAY. 00Z NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT ONSHORE TREND FOR TOMORROW...LIKELY COOLING
THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES IN THE PACKAGE
WILL BE TRENDED COOLER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

A WEAK SUNDOWNER WIND EVENT HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING. KSBA-KSMX
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED TO AROUND -4 MB THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK. NO WIND
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT...BUT WINDS
ALOFT INCREASE AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN OVER THE
COMING DAYS. THERMAL SUPPORT IS BEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST TO DETERIORATE OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED AS
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS GET TO THE HANDLE THE WEATHER
SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...950 MB TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY BUT THE
HOT AIR MASS AND POOR OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL RESULT IN A THIRD
VERY HOT DAY IN A ROW WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
ALL EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS LOOK ON-TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
AND CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO AVOID STRENUOUS
EXERCISE...WORK...AND EXPOSURE DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS LOWER ABOUT 20DM AND WE SHOULD SEE INCREASED
HUMIDITY AND POSSIBLE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH. HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH IS A MAJOR CATEGORY 4
CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST. A SURGE OF HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES MOVES INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY
LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
NORTHWEST CA WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CURRENT FORECASTS
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE A STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE
REMNANT TROPICAL CYCLONE MOISTURE SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. GFS/EM/GEM MODELS ALL TEND
TO HAVE A DIFFERENT OUTCOME WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING EITHER
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OR SOMEPLACE IN EASTERN CA BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN HOW MUCH OF A
CONVECTIVE THREAT WE WILL SEE ON THU-FRI. RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE
IDEA OF ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY FOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY ON
THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT THE MOISTURE EAST OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY.
TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING...WILL EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS WITH MORE REASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0525Z.
XPCT AREAS OF LOW CLDS/LOCALLY DENSE FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDS ON
THE CENTRAL COAST AND POSSIBLY THE SANTA YNEZ VLY OVERNIGHT THRU MID
MORNING MON. OTHERWISE...XPCT VFR CONDS THRU THE PD. THERE MAY BE
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR
CONDS NEAR THE BEACHES. LOCAL LLWS/MDT UDDFS NEAR KSBA THRU LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS BELOW PASSES OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z
AND 16Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...

15/300 AM

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...

15/300 AM

A LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND AN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

A SECOND SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN ODILE`S TRACK COULD BRING INCREASED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/BOLDT
AVIATION...DB
MARINE/BEACHES...ASR
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 150526 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1025 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
VERY HOT WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.UPDATE...

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH THE AXIS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY. A HOT AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND DOWNRIGHT HOT
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR MONDAY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS...1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES...AND 850 MB AND 950 MB ALL
TREND LOWER OR COOLER FOR MONDAY. 00Z NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT ONSHORE TREND FOR TOMORROW...LIKELY COOLING
THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES IN THE PACKAGE
WILL BE TRENDED COOLER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

A WEAK SUNDOWNER WIND EVENT HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING. KSBA-KSMX
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED TO AROUND -4 MB THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK. NO WIND
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT...BUT WINDS
ALOFT INCREASE AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN OVER THE
COMING DAYS. THERMAL SUPPORT IS BEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST TO DETERIORATE OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED AS
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS GET TO THE HANDLE THE WEATHER
SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...950 MB TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY BUT THE
HOT AIR MASS AND POOR OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL RESULT IN A THIRD
VERY HOT DAY IN A ROW WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
ALL EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS LOOK ON-TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
AND CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO AVOID STRENUOUS
EXERCISE...WORK...AND EXPOSURE DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS LOWER ABOUT 20DM AND WE SHOULD SEE INCREASED
HUMIDITY AND POSSIBLE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH. HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH IS A MAJOR CATEGORY 4
CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST. A SURGE OF HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES MOVES INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY
LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
NORTHWEST CA WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CURRENT FORECASTS
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE A STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE
REMNANT TROPICAL CYCLONE MOISTURE SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. GFS/EM/GEM MODELS ALL TEND
TO HAVE A DIFFERENT OUTCOME WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING EITHER
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OR SOMEPLACE IN EASTERN CA BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN HOW MUCH OF A
CONVECTIVE THREAT WE WILL SEE ON THU-FRI. RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE
IDEA OF ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY FOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY ON
THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT THE MOISTURE EAST OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY.
TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING...WILL EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS WITH MORE REASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0525Z.
XPCT AREAS OF LOW CLDS/LOCALLY DENSE FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDS ON
THE CENTRAL COAST AND POSSIBLY THE SANTA YNEZ VLY OVERNIGHT THRU MID
MORNING MON. OTHERWISE...XPCT VFR CONDS THRU THE PD. THERE MAY BE
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR
CONDS NEAR THE BEACHES. LOCAL LLWS/MDT UDDFS NEAR KSBA THRU LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS BELOW PASSES OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z
AND 16Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...14/830 PM.

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
AROUND POINT CONCEPTION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT. OTHERWISE GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT PERIOD THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER PZZ673-676.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SBA CHANNEL. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING PERIOD.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
&&

.BEACHES...14/830 PM.

TWO DIFFERENT SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEK. A
LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE INTO
THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SWELL IS NOT TOO LARGE SO
WILL ONLY ANTICIPATE SOME ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

THE SECOND SWELL TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AND SUBSIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE LATEST ENP GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE BIT WEAKER WITH THE
HURRICANE SWELL THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY
VARY FROM DAY-TO-DAY DUE TO CHANGES IN THE TRACK OF ODILE. SO...WE
ARE STILL EXPECTING INCREASED SURF (POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS) AND MORE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/BOLDT
AVIATION...DB
MARINE/BEACHES...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 150526 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1025 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
VERY HOT WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.UPDATE...

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH THE AXIS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY. A HOT AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND DOWNRIGHT HOT
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR MONDAY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS...1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES...AND 850 MB AND 950 MB ALL
TREND LOWER OR COOLER FOR MONDAY. 00Z NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT ONSHORE TREND FOR TOMORROW...LIKELY COOLING
THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES IN THE PACKAGE
WILL BE TRENDED COOLER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

A WEAK SUNDOWNER WIND EVENT HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING. KSBA-KSMX
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED TO AROUND -4 MB THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK. NO WIND
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT...BUT WINDS
ALOFT INCREASE AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN OVER THE
COMING DAYS. THERMAL SUPPORT IS BEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST TO DETERIORATE OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED AS
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS GET TO THE HANDLE THE WEATHER
SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...950 MB TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY BUT THE
HOT AIR MASS AND POOR OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL RESULT IN A THIRD
VERY HOT DAY IN A ROW WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
ALL EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS LOOK ON-TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
AND CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO AVOID STRENUOUS
EXERCISE...WORK...AND EXPOSURE DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS LOWER ABOUT 20DM AND WE SHOULD SEE INCREASED
HUMIDITY AND POSSIBLE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH. HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH IS A MAJOR CATEGORY 4
CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST. A SURGE OF HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES MOVES INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY
LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
NORTHWEST CA WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CURRENT FORECASTS
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE A STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE
REMNANT TROPICAL CYCLONE MOISTURE SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. GFS/EM/GEM MODELS ALL TEND
TO HAVE A DIFFERENT OUTCOME WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING EITHER
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OR SOMEPLACE IN EASTERN CA BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN HOW MUCH OF A
CONVECTIVE THREAT WE WILL SEE ON THU-FRI. RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE
IDEA OF ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY FOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY ON
THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT THE MOISTURE EAST OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY.
TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING...WILL EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS WITH MORE REASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0525Z.
XPCT AREAS OF LOW CLDS/LOCALLY DENSE FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDS ON
THE CENTRAL COAST AND POSSIBLY THE SANTA YNEZ VLY OVERNIGHT THRU MID
MORNING MON. OTHERWISE...XPCT VFR CONDS THRU THE PD. THERE MAY BE
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR
CONDS NEAR THE BEACHES. LOCAL LLWS/MDT UDDFS NEAR KSBA THRU LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS BELOW PASSES OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z
AND 16Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...14/830 PM.

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
AROUND POINT CONCEPTION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT. OTHERWISE GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT PERIOD THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER PZZ673-676.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SBA CHANNEL. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING PERIOD.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
&&

.BEACHES...14/830 PM.

TWO DIFFERENT SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEK. A
LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE INTO
THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SWELL IS NOT TOO LARGE SO
WILL ONLY ANTICIPATE SOME ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

THE SECOND SWELL TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AND SUBSIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE LATEST ENP GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE BIT WEAKER WITH THE
HURRICANE SWELL THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY
VARY FROM DAY-TO-DAY DUE TO CHANGES IN THE TRACK OF ODILE. SO...WE
ARE STILL EXPECTING INCREASED SURF (POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS) AND MORE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/BOLDT
AVIATION...DB
MARINE/BEACHES...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 150400
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
VERY HOT WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.UPDATE...

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH THE AXIS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY. A HOT AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND DOWNRIGHT HOT
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR MONDAY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS...1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES...AND 850 MB AND 950 MB ALL
TREND LOWER OR COOLER FOR MONDAY. 00Z NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT ONSHORE TREND FOR TOMORROW...LIKELY COOLING
THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES IN THE PACKAGE
WILL BE TRENDED COOLER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

A WEAK SUNDOWNER WIND EVENT HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING. KSBA-KSMX
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED TO AROUND -4 MB THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK. NO WIND
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT...BUT WINDS
ALOFT INCREASE AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN OVER THE
COMING DAYS. THERMAL SUPPORT IS BEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST TO DETERIORATE OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED AS
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS GET TO THE HANDLE THE WEATHER
SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...950 MB TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY BUT THE
HOT AIR MASS AND POOR OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL RESULT IN A THIRD
VERY HOT DAY IN A ROW WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
ALL EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS LOOK ON-TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
AND CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO AVOID STRENUOUS
EXERCISE...WORK...AND EXPOSURE DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS LOWER ABOUT 20DM AND WE SHOULD SEE INCREASED
HUMIDITY AND POSSIBLE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH. HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH IS A MAJOR CATEGORY 4
CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST. A SURGE OF HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES MOVES INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY
LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
NORTHWEST CA WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CURRENT FORECASTS
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE A STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE
REMNANT TROPICAL CYCLONE MOISTURE SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. GFS/EM/GEM MODELS ALL TEND
TO HAVE A DIFFERENT OUTCOME WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING EITHER
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OR SOMEPLACE IN EASTERN CA BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN HOW MUCH OF A
CONVECTIVE THREAT WE WILL SEE ON THU-FRI. RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE
IDEA OF ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY FOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY ON
THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT THE MOISTURE EAST OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY.
TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING...WILL EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS WITH MORE REASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0136Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 05Z...THEN VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREVALENT AT
COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH 11Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KLAX BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...14/830 PM.

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
AROUND POINT CONCEPTION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT. OTHERWISE GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT PERIOD THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER PZZ673-676.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SBA CHANNEL. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING PERIOD.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
&&

.BEACHES...14/830 PM.

TWO DIFFERENT SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEK. A
LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE INTO
THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SWELL IS NOT TOO LARGE SO
WILL ONLY ANTICIPATE SOME ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

THE SECOND SWELL TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AND SUBSIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE LATEST ENP GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE BIT WEAKER WITH THE
HURRICANE SWELL THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY
VARY FROM DAY-TO-DAY DUE TO CHANGES IN THE TRACK OF ODILE. SO...WE
ARE STILL EXPECTING INCREASED SURF (POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS) AND MORE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/BOLDT
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 150400
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
VERY HOT WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.UPDATE...

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH THE AXIS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY. A HOT AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND DOWNRIGHT HOT
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR MONDAY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS...1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES...AND 850 MB AND 950 MB ALL
TREND LOWER OR COOLER FOR MONDAY. 00Z NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT ONSHORE TREND FOR TOMORROW...LIKELY COOLING
THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES IN THE PACKAGE
WILL BE TRENDED COOLER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

A WEAK SUNDOWNER WIND EVENT HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING. KSBA-KSMX
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED TO AROUND -4 MB THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK. NO WIND
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT...BUT WINDS
ALOFT INCREASE AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN OVER THE
COMING DAYS. THERMAL SUPPORT IS BEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST TO DETERIORATE OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED AS
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS GET TO THE HANDLE THE WEATHER
SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...950 MB TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY BUT THE
HOT AIR MASS AND POOR OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL RESULT IN A THIRD
VERY HOT DAY IN A ROW WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
ALL EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS LOOK ON-TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
AND CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO AVOID STRENUOUS
EXERCISE...WORK...AND EXPOSURE DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS LOWER ABOUT 20DM AND WE SHOULD SEE INCREASED
HUMIDITY AND POSSIBLE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH. HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH IS A MAJOR CATEGORY 4
CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST. A SURGE OF HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES MOVES INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY
LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
NORTHWEST CA WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CURRENT FORECASTS
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE A STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE
REMNANT TROPICAL CYCLONE MOISTURE SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. GFS/EM/GEM MODELS ALL TEND
TO HAVE A DIFFERENT OUTCOME WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING EITHER
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OR SOMEPLACE IN EASTERN CA BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN HOW MUCH OF A
CONVECTIVE THREAT WE WILL SEE ON THU-FRI. RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE
IDEA OF ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY FOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY ON
THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT THE MOISTURE EAST OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY.
TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING...WILL EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS WITH MORE REASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0136Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 05Z...THEN VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREVALENT AT
COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH 11Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KLAX BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...14/830 PM.

OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST. MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
AROUND POINT CONCEPTION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT. OTHERWISE GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT PERIOD THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER PZZ673-676.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SBA CHANNEL. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING PERIOD.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
&&

.BEACHES...14/830 PM.

TWO DIFFERENT SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEK. A
LONG PERIOD (19-20+ SECOND) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL MOVE INTO
THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SWELL IS NOT TOO LARGE SO
WILL ONLY ANTICIPATE SOME ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING RIP CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

THE SECOND SWELL TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SWELL FROM HURRICANE ODILE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AND SUBSIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE LATEST ENP GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE BIT WEAKER WITH THE
HURRICANE SWELL THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY
VARY FROM DAY-TO-DAY DUE TO CHANGES IN THE TRACK OF ODILE. SO...WE
ARE STILL EXPECTING INCREASED SURF (POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS) AND MORE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/BOLDT
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








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