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000
FXUS66 KLOX 190531 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR
THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS. A HIGH WILL MOVE IN BY
SUNDAY TO RAISE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE
CLOUDS INTO MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UNSTABLE
AIR MASS RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
VENTURA/L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND EASTERN ANTELOPE VLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER
THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILED FOR THE MOST PART THIS EVENING...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER THE COAST AND VLYS. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SALINAS VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT OFF
TO THE E THRU SAT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO
SWRN CA BY SAT AFTERNOON THEN BUILD FURTHER INTO SRN CA THRU SUN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LINGER BUT FLATTEN OUT FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON.
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE
MTNS ON SAT FOR SOME AFTERNOON CU BUILDUPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WHICH MAY LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SAT THRU MON. NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COAST AND SOME VALLEY AREAS THRU
MON...AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS SAT.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THRU MON. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME OFFSHORE
FLOW NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS OVER INTERIOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AND
OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES SAT NIGH THRU MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE...GOOD ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. MODERATE
SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS SAT
EVENING. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS ON SAT...THEN WARM FURTHER TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SUN AND MON.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A TROF MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT DYING AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SPIT OUT A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION TUESDAY MORNING
BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOOKS LIKE AT BEST A DEEP MARINE LYR/DRIZZLE
EVENT FOR OUR AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15 FOR NOW. MAIN THING
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL DROP A GOOD
10-15 DEGREES MOST AREAS TUESDAY. COOL AND BREEZY AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH LESS CLOUDS. THEN TURNING WARMER TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...19/0530Z...WIDESPREAD STRATUS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND
IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS SAT. EXPECT STRATUS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION LATER
TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING SAT.

.KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT STRATUS WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 09Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT THAT
CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT/SAT MORNING.

.KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT/SAT MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 190412
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR
THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS. A HIGH WILL MOVE IN BY
SUNDAY TO RAISE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE
CLOUDS INTO MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UNSTABLE
AIR MASS RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
VENTURA/L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND EASTERN ANTELOPE VLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER
THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILED FOR THE MOST PART THIS EVENING...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER THE COAST AND VLYS. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SALINAS VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT OFF
TO THE E THRU SAT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO
SWRN CA BY SAT AFTERNOON THEN BUILD FURTHER INTO SRN CA THRU SUN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LINGER BUT FLATTEN OUT FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON.
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE
MTNS ON SAT FOR SOME AFTERNOON CU BUILDUPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WHICH MAY LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SAT THRU MON. NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COAST AND SOME VALLEY AREAS THRU
MON...AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS SAT.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THRU MON. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME OFFSHORE
FLOW NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS OVER INTERIOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AND
OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES SAT NIGH THRU MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE...GOOD ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. MODERATE
SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS SAT
EVENING. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS ON SAT...THEN WARM FURTHER TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SUN AND MON.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A TROF MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT DYING AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SPIT OUT A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION TUESDAY MORNING
BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOOKS LIKE AT BEST A DEEP MARINE LYR/DRIZZLE
EVENT FOR OUR AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15 FOR NOW. MAIN THING
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL DROP A GOOD
10-15 DEGREES MOST AREAS TUESDAY. COOL AND BREEZY AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH LESS CLOUDS. THEN TURNING WARMER TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...19/0005Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE COASTAL AND VLY AIRFIELDS...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR KPRB AND THE AIRFIELDS S OF POINT
CONCEPTION WHICH COULD BE OFF AN HOUR TOO LATE TO 1 TO 3 HOURS TOO
EARLY. THERE IS ALSO TIMING ISSUES FOR THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT
TO VFR CONDITIONS SAT MORNING WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR
OR TWO. FOR KWJF AND KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THRU SAT.

.KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF WITH
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WHICH MAY BE OFF FROM AN HOUR TOO LATE TO A
COUPLE OF HOURS TOO EARLY. THERE ARE ALSO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SAT
WHICH MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF SAT AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING.

.KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF WITH
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WHICH MAY BE OFF FROM AN HOUR TOO LATE TO A
COUPLE OF HOURS TOO EARLY. THERE ARE ALSO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SAT
MORNING WHICH MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 190012 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
510 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

...UPDATE FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CLEARING
AND WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THEN COOLING BACK DOWN TO NORMAL AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE NEAR THE US/MX
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE THICK HIGH CLOUD SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST
LEAVING BEHIND A DEEP LOW LVL MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND 4000` AND
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS. SO FAR NOT MUCH GOING ON EXCEPT
FOR A FEW LIGHT CU BUT SINCE THE HIGHER CLOUDS HAVE MOVED EAST THERE
WILL BE AMPLE SUNSHINE TO ALLOW SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE SOME
MORE CU THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF SHOWER. WINDS ALOFT
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH SO IF A SHOWER WERE TO FORM OVER THE MTNS
IT COULD DRIFT OVER THE VALLEYS.

A SOMEWHAT TRICKY LOW CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROF PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW
LVL MOISTURE BUT A FAIRLY WEAK INVERSION SO THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
BE ALL THAT SOLID SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE INVERSION DOES STRENGTHEN UP
THERE OVERNIGHT WITH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN SO CONFIDENCE A
LITTLE HIGHER IN LOW CLOUD COVERAGE NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION,
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY EXPECTED TO
WARM UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES INLAND AND A COUPLE DEGREES AT THE COAST
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON.

WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW
LVLS. LIKELY ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OF WARMING ON AVERAGE WITH VALLEYS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. MARINE LYR WILL BE SHRINKING IN DEPTH AND LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND SRN LA COUNTY.

GRADIENTS START TRENDING STRONGLY ONSHORE SO COASTAL AREAS LIKELY
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER, BUT VALLEYS AND OTHER INLAND AREAS EITHER
LITTLE CHANGE OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A TROF MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT DYING AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SPIT OUT A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION TUESDAY MORNING
BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOOKS LIKE AT BEST A DEEP MARINE LYR/DRIZZLE
EVENT FOR OUR AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15 FOR NOW. MAIN THING
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL DROP A GOOD
10-15 DEGREES MOST AREAS TUESDAY. COOL AND BREEZY AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH LESS CLOUDS. THEN TURNING WARMER TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...19/0005Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE COASTAL AND VLY AIRFIELDS...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR KPRB AND THE AIRFIELDS S OF POINT
CONCEPTION WHICH COULD BE OFF AN HOUR TOO LATE TO 1 TO 3 HOURS TOO
EARLY. THERE IS ALSO TIMING ISSUES FOR THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT
TO VFR CONDITIONS SAT MORNING WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR
OR TWO. FOR KWJF AND KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THRU SAT.

.KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF WITH
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WHICH MAY BE OFF FROM AN HOUR TOO LATE TO A
COUPLE OF HOURS TOO EARLY. THERE ARE ALSO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SAT
WHICH MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF SAT AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING.

.KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF WITH
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WHICH MAY BE OFF FROM AN HOUR TOO LATE TO A
COUPLE OF HOURS TOO EARLY. THERE ARE ALSO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SAT
MORNING WHICH MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 182000
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
100 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CLEARING
AND WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THEN COOLING BACK DOWN TO NORMAL AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE NEAR THE US/MX
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE THICK HIGH CLOUD SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST
LEAVING BEHIND A DEEP LOW LVL MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND 4000` AND
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS. SO FAR NOT MUCH GOING ON EXCEPT
FOR A FEW LIGHT CU BUT SINCE THE HIGHER CLOUDS HAVE MOVED EAST THERE
WILL BE AMPLE SUNSHINE TO ALLOW SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE SOME
MORE CU THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF SHOWER. WINDS ALOFT
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH SO IF A SHOWER WERE TO FORM OVER THE MTNS
IT COULD DRIFT OVER THE VALLEYS.

A SOMEWHAT TRICKY LOW CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROF PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW
LVL MOISTURE BUT A FAIRLY WEAK INVERSION SO THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
BE ALL THAT SOLID SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE INVERSION DOES STRENGTHEN UP
THERE OVERNIGHT WITH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN SO CONFIDENCE A
LITTLE HIGHER IN LOW CLOUD COVERAGE NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION,
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY EXPECTED TO
WARM UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES INLAND AND A COUPLE DEGREES AT THE COAST
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON.

WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW
LVLS. LIKELY ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OF WARMING ON AVERAGE WITH VALLEYS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. MARINE LYR WILL BE SHRINKING IN DEPTH AND LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND SRN LA COUNTY.

GRADIENTS START TRENDING STRONGLY ONSHORE SO COASTAL AREAS LIKELY
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER, BUT VALLEYS AND OTHER INLAND AREAS EITHER
LITTLE CHANGE OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A TROF MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT DYING AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SPIT OUT A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION TUESDAY MORNING
BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOOKS LIKE AT BEST A DEEP MARINE LYR/DRIZZLE
EVENT FOR OUR AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15 FOR NOW. MAIN THING
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL DROP A GOOD
10-15 DEGREES MOST AREAS TUESDAY. COOL AND BREEZY AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH LESS CLOUDS. THEN TURNING WARMER TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1750Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGH 20Z. 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KWJF AND KPMD AND
SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS. MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER TONIGHT
THAN TODAY...BUT THE CAPPING INVERSION MUCH WEAKER...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO MORE PATCHY COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND LOWER CIGS AND VIS. LOW
CONFIDENCE HOWEVER ON EXACT DETAILS OF TIMING AND FLIGHT CATS.

.KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ABOVE 030 TODAY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF LOWER CIGS RETURNING TONIGHT...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DETAILS.

.KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ABOVE 030 TODAY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF LOWER CIGS RETURNING TONIGHT...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DETAILS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 181751
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER LOW OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY BRINGING MORNING SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE ALSO BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WARMING OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THEN COOLING AS
A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING ONSHORE NEAR SAN
DIEGO THIS MORNING. WINDS ALOFT HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND THIS SHIFT WILL
PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MARINE LYR
DEEPENED TO AROUND 4K FT AND DID GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED EAST BUT A DEEP LOW LVL MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BELOW THE MARINE INVERSION BASE. TEMPS ALOFT NOT THAT
COLD, ONLY -17C AT 500MB, BUT MODELS DO SHOW A LITTLE INSTABILITY
WITH LI`S AROUND -2 AND CAPES 300-350 J/KG. SLIGHTLY BETTER
PARAMETERS TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE LOW CENTER AND IN THE SIERRA NEVADA
MTNS. BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM OVER OUR MTNS
AND AV, WHICH IF THAT HAPPENS COULD DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SAT...AND
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL RISE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
OVERNIGHT/SAT MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES SAT AFTERNOON...AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS ON SAT.

N-S GRADIENTS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE
I-5 CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS REGION ON
SUNDAY. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL RISE...AND THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB. THE MARINE INVERSION WILL
LOWER...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS LIKELY CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO JUMP UP SEVERAL DEGREES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND BE FORCED
EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE MARINE
LAYER MAY DEEPEN A BIT...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD PUSH INTO  LOWER
VALLEY LOCATIONS. EXPECT SOME COOLING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MINOR CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST MON NIGHT AND TUE.
THE EC IS STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN IS THE GFS...AND SHOWS THE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM HOLDING TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO AT LEAST SLO AND SBA COUNTIES LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. IT SHOULD ME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ON
TUE...LIKELY TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THERE WILL BE A BROAD CYCLONIC
WNWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOR WED. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN RATHER COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. SOME WARMING MAY BEGIN ON THU AS HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE REGION BEGIN TO RISE SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1750Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGH 20Z. 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KWJF AND KPMD AND
SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS. MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER TONIGHT
THAN TODAY...BUT THE CAPPING INVERSION MUCH WEAKER...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO MORE PATCHY COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND LOWER CIGS AND VIS. LOW
CONFIDENCE HOWEVER ON EXACT DETAILS OF TIMING AND FLIGHT CATS.

.KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ABOVE 030 TODAY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF LOWER CIGS RETURNING TONIGHT...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DETAILS.

.KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ABOVE 030 TODAY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF LOWER CIGS RETURNING TONIGHT...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DETAILS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 181631
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER LOW OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY BRINGING MORNING SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE ALSO BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WARMING OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THEN COOLING AS
A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING ONSHORE NEAR SAN
DIEGO THIS MORNING. WINDS ALOFT HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND THIS SHIFT WILL
PROPOGATE EAST ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MARINE LYR
DEEPENED TO AROUND 4K FT AND DID GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED EAST BUT A DEEP LOW LVL MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BELOW THE MARINE INVERSION BASE. TEMPS ALOFT NOT THAT
COLD, ONLY -17C AT 500MB, BUT MODELS DO SHOW A LITTLE INSTABILITY
WITH LI`S AROUND -2 AND CAPES 300-350 J/KG. SLIGHTLY BETTER
PARAMETERS TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE LOW CENTER AND IN THE SIERRA NEVADA
MTNS. BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM OVER OUR MTNS
AND AV, WHICH IF THAT HAPPENS COULD DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SAT...AND
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL RISE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
OVERNIGHT/SAT MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES SAT AFTERNOON...AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS ON SAT.

N-S GRADIENTS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE
I-5 CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS REGION ON
SUNDAY. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL RISE...AND THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB. THE MARINE INVERSION WILL
LOWER...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS LIKELY CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO JUMP UP SEVERAL DEGREES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND BE FORCED
EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE MARINE
LAYER MAY DEEPEN A BIT...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD PUSH INTO  LOWER
VALLEY LOCATIONS. EXPECT SOME COOLING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MINOR CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST MON NIGHT AND TUE.
THE EC IS STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN IS THE GFS...AND SHOWS THE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM HOLDING TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO AT LEAST SLO AND SBA COUNTIES LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. IT SHOULD ME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ON
TUE...LIKELY TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THERE WILL BE A BROAD CYCLONIC
WNWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOR WED. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN RATHER COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. SOME WARMING MAY BEGIN ON THU AS HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE REGION BEGIN TO RISE SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1230Z...

MOST AIRFIELD LOCATIONS WILL BE DEALING WITH MVFR TO VFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH 12Z TAFS. THERE
WILL BE A 20 PERCENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LA/VTU
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY
WILL BE ELEVATED AND THE MAIN CONCERN BESIDES THE LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE DOWNDRAFT WINDS WHEN STORMS COLLAPSE. THEREFORE LLWS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BETWEEN 18Z-06Z THIS EVE FOR THESE AREAS.

.KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS IF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER 16Z TO 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...CAK

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 181255
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
534 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT COOLING ON MONDAY...THEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST
COAST. SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...A MIXTURE OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A DEEP MARINE
LAYER OF AROUND 3000 FEET...AND LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SW OF THE REGION. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. MODELS SHOW A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO EXPECT A
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME TO TIME.
THE WRF SHOWS SOME MODEST INSTABILITY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MTNS OF ERN SBA...VTU AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE BETWEEN 500
AND 700 MB...THERE COULD BE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY IN THESE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS OF VTU COUNTY...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD EVEN BE A
FEW SPRINKLES IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES
TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THOSE RECORDED ON
THU...GENERALLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SAT...AND
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL RISE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
OVERNIGHT/SAT MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES SAT AFTERNOON...AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS ON SAT.

N-S GRADIENTS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE
I-5 CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS REGION ON
SUNDAY. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL RISE...AND THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB. THE MARINE INVERSION WILL
LOWER...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS LIKELY CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO JUMP UP SEVERAL DEGREES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND BE FORCED
EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE MARINE
LAYER MAY DEEPEN A BIT...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD PUSH INTO  LOWER
VALLEY LOCATIONS. EXPECT SOME COOLING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MINOR CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST MON NIGHT AND TUE.
THE EC IS STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN IS THE GFS...AND SHOWS THE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM HOLDING TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO AT LEAST SLO AND SBA COUNTIES LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. IT SHOULD ME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ON
TUE...LIKELY TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THERE WILL BE A BROAD CYCLONIC
WNWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOR WED. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN RATHER COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. SOME WARMING MAY BEGIN ON THU AS HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE REGION BEGIN TO RISE SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1230Z...

MOST AIRFIELD LOCATIONS WILL BE DEALING WITH MVFR TO VFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH 12Z TAFS. THERE
WILL BE A 20 PERCENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LA/VTU
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY
WILL BE ELEVATED AND THE MAIN CONCERN BESIDES THE LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE DOWNDRAFT WINDS WHEN STORMS COLLAPSE. THEREFORE LLWS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BETWEEN 18Z-06Z THIS EVE FOR THESE AREAS.

.KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS IF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER 16Z TO 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...CAK

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 181117
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
334 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT COOLING ON MONDAY...THEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST
COAST. SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...A MIXTURE OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A DEEP MARINE
LAYER OF AROUND 3000 FEET...AND LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SW OF THE REGION. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. MODELS SHOW A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO EXPECT A
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME TO TIME.
THE WRF SHOWS SOME MODEST INSTABILITY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MTNS OF ERN SBA...VTU AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE BETWEEN 500
AND 700 MB...THERE COULD BE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY IN THESE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS OF VTU COUNTY...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD EVEN BE A
FEW SPRINKLES IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES
TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THOSE RECORDED ON
THU...GENERALLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SAT...AND
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL RISE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
OVERNIGHT/SAT MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES SAT AFTERNOON...AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS ON SAT.

N-S GRADIENTS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE
I-5 CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS REGION ON
SUNDAY. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL RISE...AND THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB. THE MARINE INVERSION WILL
LOWER...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS LIKELY CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO JUMP UP SEVERAL DEGREES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND BE FORCED
EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE MARINE
LAYER MAY DEEPEN A BIT...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD PUSH INTO  LOWER
VALLEY LOCATIONS. EXPECT SOME COOLING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MINOR CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST MON NIGHT AND TUE.
THE EC IS STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN IS THE GFS...AND SHOWS THE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM HOLDING TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO AT LEAST SLO AND SBA COUNTIES LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. IT SHOULD ME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ON
TUE...LIKELY TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THERE WILL BE A BROAD CYCLONIC
WNWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOR WED. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN RATHER COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. SOME WARMING MAY BEGIN ON THU AS HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE REGION BEGIN TO RISE SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1130Z...WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...CAK

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 181059
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
334 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT COOLING ON MONDAY...THEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST
COAST. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...A MIXTURE OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A DEEP MARINE
LAYER OF AROUND 3000 FEET...AND  LOT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SW OF THE REGION. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. MODELS SHOW A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO EXPECT A
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME TO TIME.
THE WRF SHOWS SOME MODEST INSTABILITY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MTNS OF ERN SBA COUNTY...VTU COUNTY AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE
BETWEEN 500 AND 700 MB...THERE COULD BE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
TODAY IN THESE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS OF VTU COUNTY...
WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED. HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD
EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THOSE
RECORDED ON THU...GENERALLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SAT...AND
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL RISE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
OVERNIGHT/SAT MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES SAT AFTERNOON...AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS ON SAT.

N-S GRADIENTS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE
I-5 CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS REGION ON
SUNDAY. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL RISE...AND THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO JUMP UP
SEVERAL DEGREES ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COASTAL
PLAIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.


&&

.AVIATION...18/0000Z...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF...
EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR KPRB...KLAX...KLGB...KBUR AND KVNY WHICH MAY BE AN
HOUR OR TWO TOO EARLY...EXCEPT OFF PLUS/MINUS AND HOUR OR TWO FOR
KBUR AND KVNY. OTHERWISE...HI CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL
AND VLY AIRFIELDS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...EXCEPT EXTENDING THRU
THE AFTERNOON AT KSBA...KOXR...KLAX...KLGB...KBUR AND KVNY.
HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR FOR KBUR AND KVNY BY 22Z FRI.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z ALTHO THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH MAY BE AN HOUR
OR TWO TOO EARLY. THE MVFR CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT
THRU FRI EVENING.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE AIRFIELD BY 07Z ALTHO THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS AND HOUR OR TWO. THE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST LATER TONIGHT THRU EARLY FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING TO
VFR CIGS BY 22Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BRUNO
AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 180401
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL BRING DRIZZLE FOR TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR THE COAST
AND VALLEYS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY IN THE SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...PLENTY OF HI LEVEL MOISTURE COVERED THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WAS ALSO
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO MANY
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND DEEPENING MARINE LAYER
WILL COVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND ALSO MOVE TO THE
LOWER COASTAL SLOPES. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AS WELL FOR THE
COAST/VLYS/LOWER CSTL SLOPES S OF POINT CONCEPTION OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST SW OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT THEN GRADUALLY
MOVE E AND INLAND ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD
BUILD INTO SRN CA LATE SAT THRU SUN. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
BRING GOOD INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA ON FRI AND COMBINED WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE L.A./VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE VTU COUNTY
MTNS AND THE SAN GABRIEL MTNS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE BREAKS IN
THE HI CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST IN THE
MORNING FOR THE COAST/VLYS/CSTL SLOPES OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. ONLY
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AT BEST IS EXPECTED FOR MOST COAST AND
VLYS ON FRI. MORE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT
MORNING...AND SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND
SOME ADJACENT VLYS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL
OVER THE AREA SAT AND SUN. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS ON FRI THEN WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY
INLAND BY SUN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...AN APPROACHING TROF WILL GENERATE STRONG
ONSHORE TRENDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO COASTAL COOLING AND A
LEVELING OFF OF TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROF FOR TUE,
WHICH NOW LOOKS LIKE A BLEND OF THE EARLIER RUNS OF THE STRONGER GFS
AND WEAKER ECMWF. IRONICALLY THE ECMWF NOW HAS SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, THOUGH BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NO PRECIP OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME
MARINE LYR DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING. OBVIOUSLY QUITE A BIT COOLER
TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND AND A SLOW CLEARING MARINE LYR.
PRETTY STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVEL FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. STILL COOL AND BREEZY WEDNESDAY
THOUGH WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. A WARMUP EXPECTED BY THU WITH VERY
WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...18/0000Z...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF...
EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR KPRB...KLAX...KLGB...KBUR AND KVNY WHICH MAY BE AN
HOUR OR TWO TOO EARLY...EXCEPT OFF PLUS/MINUS AND HOUR OR TWO FOR
KBUR AND KVNY. OTHERWISE...HI CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL
AND VLY AIRFIELDS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...EXCEPT EXTENDING THRU
THE AFTERNOON AT KSBA...KOXR...KLAX...KLGB...KBUR AND KVNY.
HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR FOR KBUR AND KVNY BY 22Z FRI.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z ALTHO THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH MAY BE AN HOUR
OR TWO TOO EARLY. THE MVFR CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT
THRU FRI EVENING.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE AIRFIELD BY 07Z ALTHO THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS AND HOUR OR TWO. THE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST LATER TONIGHT THRU EARLY FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING TO
VFR CIGS BY 22Z.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 180008 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
510 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

...UPDATE FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MORNING DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE AT COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WARMER
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY BEFORE A TROUGH APPROACHES ON
TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT
300 MILES SW OF PT CONCEPTION HAVE BEEN OBSCURING THE SUN FOR MOST
AREAS TODAY. SO FAR THE MOISTURE IS BASED AROUND 400MB BUT IS
EXPECTED LOWER TO AROUND 600MB TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROF MOVE CLOSER. TOO MUCH DRY AIR BELOW TO GET ANY PRECIP, THOUGH A
DOUBLING OF THIS MORNING`S 2000` MARINE LYR MAY HELP GENERATE SOME
DRIZZLE IF THE HIGHER CLOUDS DON`T PREVENT THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM
FORMING. TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT BUT PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UNTIL THEN. HIGHS FRIDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND, PEAKING SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. EXPECTING ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WARMER
VALLEYS BY SUNDAY. MOSTLY 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE COAST. MARINE LYR
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO STILL BE AROUND, BUT LOWERING IN DEPTH WITH
EARLIER CLEARING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. RISING SURFACE PRESSURES TO
THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY WILL HELP GENERATE A WEAK SUNDOWNER IN SRN
SBA COUNTY SAT EVENING BUT LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SIMILAR
WINDS ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE GRAPEVINE AREA.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...AN APPROACHING TROF WILL GENERATE STRONG
ONSHORE TRENDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO COASTAL COOLING AND A
LEVELING OFF OF TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROF FOR TUE,
WHICH NOW LOOKS LIKE A BLEND OF THE EARLIER RUNS OF THE STRONGER GFS
AND WEAKER ECMWF. IRONICALLY THE ECMWF NOW HAS SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, THOUGH BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NO PRECIP OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME
MARINE LYR DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING. OBVIOUSLY QUITE A BIT COOLER
TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND AND A SLOW CLEARING MARINE LYR.
PRETTY STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVEL FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. STILL COOL AND BREEZY WEDNESDAY
THOUGH WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. A WARMUP EXPECTED BY THU WITH VERY
WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...18/0000Z...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF...
EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR KPRB...KLAX...KLGB...KBUR AND KVNY WHICH MAY BE AN
HOUR OR TWO TOO EARLY...EXCEPT OFF PLUS/MINUS AND HOUR OR TWO FOR
KBUR AND KVNY. OTHERWISE...HI CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL
AND VLY AIRFIELDS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...EXCEPT EXTENDING THRU
THE AFTERNOON AT KSBA...KOXR...KLAX...KLGB...KBUR AND KVNY.
HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR FOR KBUR AND KVNY BY 22Z FRI.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z ALTHO THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH MAY BE AN HOUR
OR TWO TOO EARLY. THE MVFR CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT
THRU FRI EVENING.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE AIRFIELD BY 07Z ALTHO THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS AND HOUR OR TWO. THE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST LATER TONIGHT THRU EARLY FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING TO
VFR CIGS BY 22Z.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 172021
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MORNING DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE AT COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WARMER
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY BEFORE A TROUGH APPROACHES ON
TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT
300 MILES SW OF PT CONCEPTION HAVE BEEN OBSCURING THE SUN FOR MOST
AREAS TODAY. SO FAR THE MOISTURE IS BASED AROUND 400MB BUT IS
EXPECTED LOWER TO AROUND 600MB TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROF MOVE CLOSER. TOO MUCH DRY AIR BELOW TO GET ANY PRECIP, THOUGH A
DOUBLING OF THIS MORNING`S 2000` MARINE LYR MAY HELP GENERATE SOME
DRIZZLE IF THE HIGHER CLOUDS DON`T PREVENT THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM
FORMING. TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT BUT PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UNTIL THEN. HIGHS FRIDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND, PEAKING SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. EXPECTING ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WARMER
VALLEYS BY SUNDAY. MOSTLY 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE COAST. MARINE LYR
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO STILL BE AROUND, BUT LOWERING IN DEPTH WITH
EARLIER CLEARING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. RISING SURFACE PRESSURES TO
THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY WILL HELP GENERATE A WEAK SUNDOWNER IN SRN
SBA COUNTY SAT EVENING BUT LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SIMILAR
WINDS ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE GRAPEVINE AREA.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...AN APPROACHING TROF WILL GENERATE STRONG
ONSHORE TRENDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO COASTAL COOLING AND A
LEVELING OFF OF TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROF FOR TUE,
WHICH NOW LOOKS LIKE A BLEND OF THE EARLIER RUNS OF THE STRONGER GFS
AND WEAKER ECMWF. IRONICALLY THE ECMWF NOW HAS SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, THOUGH BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NO PRECIP OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME
MARINE LYR DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING. OBVIOUSLY QUITE A BIT COOLER
TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND AND A SLOW CLEARING MARINE LYR.
PRETTY STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVEL FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. STILL COOL AND BREEZY WEDNESDAY
THOUGH WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. A WARMUP EXPECTED BY THU WITH VERY
WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1740Z
MARINE LAYER TOP NEAR 025 AROUND KLAX AND 010 AROUND KSMX. A SOLID
BKN-OVC200 DECK WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE LOWER CLOUDS
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHORT-TERM TIMING. KLAX AND KSBA HAVE A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF HAVING MVFR CIGS ALL DAY...WITH KOXR HAVING A
70 PERCENT CHANCE. KSBP KSMX SHOULD SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 20
OR 21Z...BUT AN EARLY RETURN IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY AT KSMX WITH A
RETURN WINDOW OF 22-02Z. EXPECTING A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH RETURN OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS AS PREVAILING CONDITION
TODAY. 2-4 HOURS OF SCT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED...BUT 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF CIGS ALL DAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE BLOCKING CLEAR VIEW OF
SATELLITE SO TIMING AND UPDATES WILL HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE. SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 8 KT BEFORE TURNING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER
20Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS OR HAZE THROUGH
19Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 21Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS
RETURNING TONIGHT...BUT TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL DUE TO
HIGH CLOUDS BLOCKING VIEW FROM SATELLITE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 171744 AAB
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MORNING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT
WARMER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY BEFORE A TROUGH
APPROACHES ON TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...MARINE LYR DEPTH RANGES FROM AROUND 1200`
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO AROUND 2200` IN THE LA BASIN. HARD TO SEE
THE LOW CLOUDS NOW THOUGH WITH ALL THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD
OF THAT NEXT TROF. HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRETTY THICK AND WILL LIKELY
OBSCURE THE SUN MOST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME THERE IS
NO INDICATION THAT THE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL DROP ANY PRECIPITATION.
SATELLITE DERIVED RAIN RATE SHOWS NOTHING OFF OUR COAST, RADARS ARE
DRY, AND MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE IS ALL ABOVE 400 MB AT LEAST
FOR TODAY. THERE IS SOME LOWERING OF THE MOISTURE TONIGHT TO ABOUT
600 MB BUT THAT`S STILL WAY TOO HIGH. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT BUT AM
NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE
DRIZZLE TONIGHT WITH A DEEPENED MARINE LYR (ASSUMING IT CAN REFORM
UNDER THE THICK HIGHER CLOUDS) AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE
MTNS FRI. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR COASTAL AREAS NEXT COUPLE
DAYS BUT VALLEYS AND OTHER INLAND AREAS WILL COOL ABOUT 5 DEGREES
TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FRIDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A WEAK RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROF FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BUT MOST OF THE COASTS AND VLYS WILL SEE
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...THE VLYS WILL HAVE A LITTLE LESS
COVERAGE AS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL SMOOSH THE CLOUDS SOME. THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM BUT THE COASTS AND VLYS WILL ONLY RISE SLIGHTLY
AS THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUT THE LID ON THE WARMING.

MAYBE A LITTLE WEAK SUNDOWNER SAT NIGHTS AS WELL AS SOME I-5
CORRIDOR WINDS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE RIDGING PEAKS SUNDAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL PEAK. THERE WILL BE SOME
MORNING STRATUS  ACROSS THE COASTS BUT ONLY PATCHY CLOUDS FOR THE
MORNINGS. MOST AREAS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON
UNDER PLENTY OF LATE APRIL SUNSHINE AND RISING HGTS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE MONDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND
FLATTENS OUT SOME. THE CLOUD PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAYS
AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE AS WELL MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER.

A FAIRLY LARGE TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND EXIT
WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY SO JUST LOOK FOR A DEEP MARINE LAYER
(MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE) AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD DROP
PRECIPITOUSLY WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND FALLING HGTS.

A LITTLE LESS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS
HGTS RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1740Z
MARINE LAYER TOP NEAR 022 AROUND KLAX AND 012 AROUND KSMX. A SOLID
BKN-OVC200 DECK WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE LOWER CLOUDS
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHORT-TERM TIMING. KLAX AND KSBA HAVE A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF HAVING MVFR CIGS ALL DAY...WITH KOXR HAVING A
70 PERCENT CHANCE. KSBP KSMX SHOULD SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 20
OR 21Z...BUT AN EARLY RETURN IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY AT KSMX WITH A
RETURN WINDOW OF 22-02Z. EXPECTING A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH RETURN OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS AS PREVAILING CONDITION
TODAY. 2-4 HOURS OF SCT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED...BUT 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF CIGS ALL DAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE BLOCKING CLEAR VIEW OF
SATELLITE SO TIMING AND UPDATES WILL HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE. SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 8 KT BEFORE TURNING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER
20Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS OR HAZE THROUGH
19Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 21Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS
RETURNING TONIGHT...BUT TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL DUE TO
HIGH CLOUDS BLOCKING VIEW FROM SATELLITE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 171612 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MORNING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT
WARMER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY BEFORE A TROUGH
APPROACHES ON TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...MARINE LYR DEPTH RANGES FROM AROUND 1200`
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO AROUND 2200` IN THE LA BASIN. HARD TO SEE
THE LOW CLOUDS NOW THOUGH WITH ALL THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD
OF THAT NEXT TROF. HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRETTY THICK AND WILL LIKELY
OBSCURE THE SUN MOST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME THERE IS
NO INDICATION THAT THE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL DROP ANY PRECIPITATION.
SATELLITE DERIVED RAIN RATE SHOWS NOTHING OFF OUR COAST, RADARS ARE
DRY, AND MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE IS ALL ABOVE 400 MB AT LEAST
FOR TODAY. THERE IS SOME LOWERING OF THE MOISTURE TONIGHT TO ABOUT
600 MB BUT THAT`S STILL WAY TOO HIGH. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT BUT AM
NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE
DRIZZLE TONIGHT WITH A DEEPENED MARINE LYR (ASSUMING IT CAN REFORM
UNDER THE THICK HIGHER CLOUDS) AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE
MTNS FRI. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR COASTAL AREAS NEXT COUPLE
DAYS BUT VALLEYS AND OTHER INLAND AREAS WILL COOL ABOUT 5 DEGREES
TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FRIDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A WEAK RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROF FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BUT MOST OF THE COASTS AND VLYS WILL SEE
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...THE VLYS WILL HAVE A LITTLE LESS
COVERAGE AS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL SMOOSH THE CLOUDS SOME. THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM BUT THE COASTS AND VLYS WILL ONLY RISE SLIGHTLY
AS THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUT THE LID ON THE WARMING.

MAYBE A LITTLE WEAK SUNDOWNER SAT NIGHTS AS WELL AS SOME I-5
CORRIDOR WINDS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE RIDGING PEAKS SUNDAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL PEAK. THERE WILL BE SOME
MORNING STRATUS  ACROSS THE COASTS BUT ONLY PATCHY CLOUDS FOR THE
MORNINGS. MOST AREAS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON
UNDER PLENTY OF LATE APRIL SUNSHINE AND RISING HGTS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE MONDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND
FLATTENS OUT SOME. THE CLOUD PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAYS
AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE AS WELL MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER.

A FAIRLY LARGE TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND EXIT
WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY SO JUST LOOK FOR A DEEP MARINE LAYER
(MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE) AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD DROP
PRECIPITOUSLY WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND FALLING HGTS.

A LITTLE LESS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS
HGTS RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1155Z
WIDESPREAD CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEYS AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SLO COUNTY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WERE GENERALLY LOW MVFR TO HIGH IFR IN MOST AREAS...WITH LOCAL LIFR
CONDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST...IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...AND
FOOTHILLS ABOVE THE VALLEYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. EXPECT
FAIRLY SLOW CLEARING TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
FACT...CLOUDS MAY LINGER AT SOME BEACH AREAS. THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL TODAY. EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TO MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH CONDS GENERALLY MVFR OR POSSIBLY HIGH IFR.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.


KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 171157 AAB
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
455 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR TODAYS CLOUDS
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. MORNING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE A TROUGH
APPROACHES ON TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...

NEW STUFF...
ADJUSTED CLOUD WORDING TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ALL SORTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF THE
TROF TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER AT MANY BEACHES TODAY.
THE TROF TO THE SW IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE INTERESTING. ALL MDLS
INDICATE THAT ITS NOTHING BUT A GRIP OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE MORE BUBBLY THAN THAT. REMEMBER THE MDLS ARE
AT THEIR WORST WITH SYSTEMS MOVING IN FROM THE SW. CANT BRING MYSELF
TO PUT RAIN IN THE FCST TODAY BUT THIS FEATURE BEARS WATCHING.

OLD STUFF...

MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 1700 FEET DEEP AND MARINE LAYER STRATUS COVERS
THE COASTS AND VLYS OF L.A. COUNTY WITH LESSER COVERAGE OVER VTA AND
SBA COUNTY AND ESP THE CENTRAL COAST. STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FILL IN THROUGH DAWN AND MOST CST AND VLYS WILL HAVE LOW
CLOUDS. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR PRETTY WELL TODAY BUT THE KDAG
GRADIENT IS INCREASING AND A FEW BEACHES WILL LIKELY NOT CLEAR
TODAY. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ADVANCING AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW. THESE CLOUDS ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGE LOOKS A TOUCH THICKER THAN FCST AND PERHAPS TODAY
WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL TODAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND ALL OF THE CLOUDS.

A MIX OF LOW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THE MTNS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD. FRIDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND THE LOW HGTS WITH THE TROF
PASSAGE.

A WEAK RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROF FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BUT MOST OF THE COASTS AND VLYS WILL SEE
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...THE VLYS WILL HAVE A LITTLE LESS
COVERAGE AS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL SMOOSH THE CLOUDS SOME. THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM BUT THE COASTS AND VLYS WILL ONLY RISE SLIGHTLY
AS THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUT THE LID ON THE WARMING.

MAYBE A LITTLE WEAK SUNDOWNER SAT NIGHTS AS WELL AS SOME I-5
CORRIDOR WINDS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE RIDGING PEAKS SUNDAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL PEAK. THERE WILL BE SOME
MORNING STRATUS  ACROSS THE COASTS BUT ONLY PATCHY CLOUDS FOR THE
MORNINGS. MOST AREAS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON
UNDER PLENTY OF LATE APRIL SUNSHINE AND RISING HGTS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE MONDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND
FLATTENS OUT SOME. THE CLOUD PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAYS
AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE AS WELL MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER.

A FAIRLY LARGE TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND EXIT
WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY SO JUST LOOK FOR A DEEP MARINE LAYER
(MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE) AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD DROP
PRECIPITOUSLY WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND FALLING HGTS.

A LITTLE LESS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS
HGTS RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1155Z
WIDESPREAD CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEYS AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SLO COUNTY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WERE GENERALLY LOW MVFR TO HIGH IFR IN MOST AREAS...WITH LOCAL LIFR
CONDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST...IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...AND
FOOTHILLS ABOVE THE VALLEYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. EXPECT
FAIRLY SLOW CLEARING TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
FACT...CLOUDS MAY LINGER AT SOME BEACH AREAS. THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL TODAY. EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TO MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH CONDS GENERALLY MVFR OR POSSIBLY HIGH IFR.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.


KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 171138
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR TODAYS CLOUDS

.SYNOPSIS...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. MORNING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE A TROUGH
APPROACHES ON TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...

NEW STUFF...
ADJUSTED CLOUD WORDING TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ALL SORTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF THE
TROF TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER AT MANY BEACHES TODAY.
THE TROF TO THE SW IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE INTERESTING. ALL MDLS
INDICATE THAT ITS NOTHING BUT A GRIP OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE MORE BUBBLY THAN THAT. REMEMBER THE MDLS ARE
AT THEIR WORST WITH SYSTEMS MOVING IN FROM THE SW. CANT BRING MYSELF
TO PUT RAIN IN THE FCST TODAY BUT THIS FEATURE BEARS WATCHING.

OLD STUFF...

MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 1700 FEET DEEP AND MARINE LAYER STRATUS COVERS
THE COASTS AND VLYS OF L.A. COUNTY WITH LESSER COVERAGE OVER VTA AND
SBA COUNTY AND ESP THE CENTRAL COAST. STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FILL IN THROUGH DAWN AND MOST CST AND VLYS WILL HAVE LOW
CLOUDS. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR PRETTY WELL TODAY BUT THE KDAG
GRADIENT IS INCREASING AND A FEW BEACHES WILL LIKELY NOT CLEAR
TODAY. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ADVANCING AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW. THESE CLOUDS ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGE LOOKS A TOUCH THICKER THAN FCST AND PERHAPS TODAY
WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL TODAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND ALL OF THE CLOUDS.

A MIX OF LOW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THE MTNS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD. FRIDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND THE LOW HGTS WITH THE TROF
PASSAGE.

A WEAK RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROF FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BUT MOST OF THE COASTS AND VLYS WILL SEE
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...THE VLYS WILL HAVE A LITTLE LESS
COVERAGE AS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL SMOOSH THE CLOUDS SOME. THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM BUT THE COASTS AND VLYS WILL ONLY RISE SLIGHTLY
AS THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUT THE LID ON THE WARMING.

MAYBE A LITTLE WEAK SUNDOWNER SAT NIGHTS AS WELL AS SOME I-5
CORRIDOR WINDS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE RIDGING PEAKS SUNDAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL PEAK. THERE WILL BE SOME
MORNING STRATUS  ACROSS THE COASTS BUT ONLY PATCHY CLOUDS FOR THE
MORNINGS. MOST AREAS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON
UNDER PLENTY OF LATE APRIL SUNSHINE AND RISING HGTS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE MONDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND
FLATTENS OUT SOME. THE CLOUD PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAYS
AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE AS WELL MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER.

A FAIRLY LARGE TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND EXIT
WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY SO JUST LOOK FOR A DEEP MARINE LAYER
(MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE) AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD DROP
PRECIPITOUSLY WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND FALLING HGTS.

A LITTLE LESS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS
HGTS RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...

17/05250Z.

WIDESPREAD CIGS EXPECTED IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEYS AREAS
OVERNIGHT WITH FAIRLY SLOW CLEARING ON THU ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
IN FACT...CLOUDS MAY LINGER AT SOME BEACH AREAS. CIGS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...EXCEPT LOCALLY IFR IN THE VLYS AND ON THE
CENTRAL COAST.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 171044
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. MORNING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE A TROUGH
APPROACHES ON TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 1700 FEET DEEP AND MARINE LAYER STRATUS COVERS
THE COASTS AND VLYS OF L.A. COUNTY WITH LESSER COVERAGE OVER VTA AND
SBA COUNTY AND ESP THE CENTRAL COAST. STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FILL IN THROUGH DAWN AND MOST CST AND VLYS WILL HAVE LOW
CLOUDS. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR PRETTY WELL TODAY BUT THE KDAG
GRADIENT IS INCREASING AND A FEW BEACHES WILL LIKELY NOT CLEAR
TODAY. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ADVANCING AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW. THESE CLOUDS ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGE LOOKS A TOUCH THICKER THAN FCST AND PERHAPS TODAY
WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL TODAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND ALL OF THE CLOUDS.

A MIX OF LOW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THE MTNS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD. FRIDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND THE LOW HGTS WITH THE TROF
PASSAGE.

A WEAK RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROF FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BUT MOST OF THE COASTS AND VLYS WILL SEE
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...THE VLYS WILL HAVE A LITTLE LESS
COVERAGE AS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL SMOOSH THE CLOUDS SOME. THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM BUT THE COASTS AND VLYS WILL ONLY RISE SLIGHTLY
AS THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUT THE LID ON THE WARMING.

MAYBE A LITTLE WEAK SUNDOWNER SAT NIGHTS AS WELL AS SOME I-5
CORRIDOR WINDS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE RIDGING PEAKS SUNDAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL PEAK. THERE WILL BE SOME
MORNING STRATUS  ACROSS THE COASTS BUT ONLY PATCHY CLOUDS FOR THE
MORNINGS. MOST AREAS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON
UNDER PLENTY OF LATE APRIL SUNSHINE AND RISING HGTS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE MONDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND
FLATTENS OUT SOME. THE CLOUD PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAYS
AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE AS WELL MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER.

A FAIRLY LARGE TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND EXIT
WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY SO JUST LOOK FOR A DEEP MARINE LAYER
(MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE) AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD DROP
PRECIPITOUSLY WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND FALLING HGTS.

A LITTLE LESS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS
HGTS RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...

17/05250Z.

WIDESPREAD CIGS EXPECTED IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEYS AREAS
OVERNIGHT WITH FAIRLY SLOW CLEARING ON THU ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
IN FACT...CLOUDS MAY LINGER AT SOME BEACH AREAS. CIGS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...EXCEPT LOCALLY IFR IN THE VLYS AND ON THE
CENTRAL COAST.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 170536 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1025 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH RETURNING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. MORNING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE A TROUGH
APPROACHES ON TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW
(LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT CURRENTLY AT +5.7 MB) WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
THE MARINE LAYER TO AROUND 2000 FEET OR GREATER BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS FORMING OFF THE COAST
OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO MOST OF THE
COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRING AN EVEN DEEPER MARINE LAYER TO THE REGION. IN FACT...A MARINE
LAYER DEPTH OF 2500 FEET OR GREATER COULD BRING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALL THE WAY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND LOWER COASTAL SLOPES
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ADDITIONAL DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER
MAY ALSO BRING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING.
FORECASTED COOLING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS ON TRACK DUE TO THE
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING THE START OF A BRIEF
WARMING TREND.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...RIDGING WILL PEAK EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY
WITH HIGHS WARMING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WARMER VALLEY
AREAS. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPS THERE. MODELS AGREE NOW THAT SOME
FORM OF TROFFING WILL DEVELOP TUE/WED. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
STRONGEST SOLUTION, THOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOFTENED FROM
THEIR EARLIER EXTREMES AND NEITHER HAVE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR
OUR AREA. THE MAIN IMPACTS LIKELY WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND AN
INCREASE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...17/05250Z.
WIDESPREAD CIGS EXPECTED IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEYS AREAS
OVERNIGHT WITH FAIRLY SLOW CLEARING ON THU ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
IN FACT...CLOUDS MAY LINGER AT SOME BEACH AREAS. CIGS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...EXCEPT LOCALLY IFR IN THE VLYS AND ON THE
CENTRAL COAST.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION...DB
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 170315
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH RETURNING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. MORNING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE A TROUGH
APPROACHES ON TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW
(LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT CURRENTLY AT +5.7 MB) WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
THE MARINE LAYER TO AROUND 2000 FEET OR GREATER BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS FORMING OFF THE COAST
OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO MOST OF THE
COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRING AN EVEN DEEPER MARINE LAYER TO THE REGION. IN FACT...A MARINE
LAYER DEPTH OF 2500 FEET OR GREATER COULD BRING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALL THE WAY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND LOWER COASTAL SLOPES
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ADDITIONAL DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER
MAY ALSO BRING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING.
FORECASTED COOLING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS ON TRACK DUE TO THE
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING THE START OF A BRIEF
WARMING TREND.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...RIDGING WILL PEAK EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY
WITH HIGHS WARMING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WARMER VALLEY
AREAS. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPS THERE. MODELS AGREE NOW THAT SOME
FORM OF TROFFING WILL DEVELOP TUE/WED. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
STRONGEST SOLUTION, THOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOFTENED FROM
THEIR EARLIER EXTREMES AND NEITHER HAVE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR
OUR AREA. THE MAIN IMPACTS LIKELY WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND AN
INCREASE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...17/0000Z.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGERING OFF THE COAST
OF LA/VTU COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT ACARS DATA SHOWING
MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 1500 FEET...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
TO AROUND 2000 FEET LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...IFR/MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST COASTAL/VALLEY TAF SITES TONIGHT...WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ARRIVAL TIMES OF CEILINGS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING AT KLAX...KOXR...AND KSBA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.


KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT BRIEF IFR CIGS COULD IMPACT KLAX THIS EVENING. AS THE MARINE
LAYER LIFTS...CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN MVFR CATEGORY
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. IFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BECOMING MVFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH CEILINGS BURNING
OFF BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 170012
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH RETURNING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. MORNING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE A TROUGH
APPROACHES ON TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FAIRLY BLAND WEATHER PATTERN NEXT FEW DAYS
AS WEAK TROFFING SETTLES IN. THIS WILL FORCE THE MARINE LYR TO
DEEPEN, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR WITH SOME BEACHES
STAYING CLOUDY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE TROF WILL PASS EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING THE START OF A BRIEF WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...RIDGING WILL PEAK EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY
WITH HIGHS WARMING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WARMER VALLEY
AREAS. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPS THERE. MODELS AGREE NOW THAT SOME
FORM OF TROFFING WILL DEVELOP TUE/WED. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
STRONGEST SOLUTION, THOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOFTENED FROM
THEIR EARLIER EXTREMES AND NEITHER HAVE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR
OUR AREA. THE MAIN IMPACTS LIKELY WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND AN
INCREASE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...17/0000Z.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGERING OFF THE COAST
OF LA/VTU COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT ACARS DATA SHOWING
MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 1500 FEET...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
TO AROUND 2000 FEET LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...IFR/MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST COASTAL/VALLEY TAF SITES TONIGHT...WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ARRIVAL TIMES OF CEILINGS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING AT KLAX...KOXR...AND KSBA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.


KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT BRIEF IFR CIGS COULD IMPACT KLAX THIS EVENING. AS THE MARINE
LAYER LIFTS...CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN MVFR CATEGORY
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. IFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BECOMING MVFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH CEILINGS BURNING
OFF BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 162011
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
110 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH RETURNING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. MORNING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE A TROUGH
APPROACHES ON TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FAIRLY BLAND WEATHER PATTERN NEXT FEW DAYS
AS WEAK TROFFING SETTLES IN. THIS WILL FORCE THE MARINE LYR TO
DEEPEN, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR WITH SOME BEACHES
STAYING CLOUDY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE TROF WILL PASS EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING THE START OF A BRIEF WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...RIDGING WILL PEAK EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY
WITH HIGHS WARMING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WARMER VALLEY
AREAS. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPS THERE. MODELS AGREE NOW THAT SOME
FORM OF TROFFING WILL DEVELOP TUE/WED. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
STRONGEST SOLUTION, THOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOFTENED FROM
THEIR EARLIER EXTREMES AND NEITHER HAVE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR
OUR AREA. THE MAIN IMPACTS LIKELY WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND AN
INCREASE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED TO 2200 FEET THIS MORNING BUT BURNED AWAY
RATHER QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS
THE DISTRICT. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL PROBABLY NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT GET A FEW
HUNDRED FEET DEEPER. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING
THE COASTAL SECTIONS IN THE EVENING AND IFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE
VALLEY TAFS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH SLOWLY
RISING CEILINGS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. IFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BECOMING MVFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH SLOWLY RISING
CEILINGS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 161847
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1140 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
1800 FOOT MARINE LAYER AND A WEAK EDDY HAVE BROUGHT A STRATUS DECK
TO MUCH OF THE COASTS AND VLYS THIS MORNING AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL IN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CLEAR BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME ACROSS THE COASTS AND
INTERIOR AS THEY WERE YDY BUT THE VLYS WILL COOL DUE TO THE DEEPER
MARINE LAYER.

LOOK FOR A SIMILAR MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN TONIGHT. BUT THE
CLEARING THURSDAY WILL BE SLOWER AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN
A FEW BEACHES WITH NO CLEARING DUE TO THE FACT THE A WEAK UPPER TROF
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PROVIDE A LITTLE LIFT AND ADDITIONAL
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. BETTER ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER HGTS WILL
PROVIDE COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

ALL MDLS FCST A BIG BROAD TROF TO MOVE OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR A SUPER DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH CLOUDS EXTENDING THROUGH ALL
THE VLYS AND ONTO THE COASTAL SLOPES. SLOW TO NO CLEARING ACROSS THE
COASTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE VLYS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR SOME MORNING DRIZZLE AS WELL. THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
A LITTLE RIDGING ON TAP FOR SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD SMOOSH THE MARINE
LAYER DOWN SOME AND ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WARM UP FOR THE VLYS AND
INTERIOR. THE COASTS WILL REMAIN COOL.

A BROAD PRETTY FLAT RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTS AND MANY
VLYS. GRADIENTS RELAX AND CLEARING SHOULD BE QUICKER. LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO WARM SOME MORE WITH HIGHER HGTS AND THE WEAKER SEABREEZE.

MORE MARINE LAYER AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY LARGE TROF APPROACHES THE WEST COAST BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER HGTS.

THE EC AND THE GFS NO AGREE THAT THE TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW JUST WENT FOR THE DEEP MARINE LAYER AND MUCH
COOLER SCENARIO BUT HAVE TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF LESS MARINE
LAYER BUT MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FCST FOR THIS
TROF EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED TO 2200 FEET THIS MORNING BUT BURNED AWAY
RATHER QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS
THE DISTRICT. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL PROBABLY NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT GET A FEW
HUNDRED FEET DEEPER. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING
THE COASTAL SECTIONS IN THE EVENING AND IFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE
VALLEY TAFS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH SLOWLY
RISING CEILINGS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. IFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BECOMING MVFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH SLOWLY RISING
CEILINGS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 161150
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
1800 FOOT MARINE LAYER AND A WEAK EDDY HAVE BROUGHT A STRATUS DECK
TO MUCH OF THE COASTS AND VLYS THIS MORNING AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL IN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CLEAR BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME ACROSS THE COASTS AND
INTERIOR AS THEY WERE YDY BUT THE VLYS WILL COOL DUE TO THE DEEPER
MARINE LAYER.

LOOK FOR A SIMILAR MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN TONIGHT. BUT THE
CLEARING THURSDAY WILL BE SLOWER AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN
A FEW BEACHES WITH NO CLEARING DUE TO THE FACT THE A WEAK UPPER TROF
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PROVIDE A LITTLE LIFT AND ADDITIONAL
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. BETTER ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER HGTS WILL
PROVIDE COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

ALL MDLS FCST A BIG BROAD TROF TO MOVE OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR A SUPER DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH CLOUDS EXTENDING THROUGH ALL
THE VLYS AND ONTO THE COASTAL SLOPES. SLOW TO NO CLEARING ACROSS THE
COASTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE VLYS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR SOME MORNING DRIZZLE AS WELL. THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
A LITTLE RIDGING ON TAP FOR SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD SMOOSH THE MARINE
LAYER DOWN SOME AND ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WARM UP FOR THE VLYS AND
INTERIOR. THE COASTS WILL REMAIN COOL.

A BROAD PRETTY FLAT RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTS AND MANY
VLYS. GRADIENTS RELAX AND CLEARING SHOULD BE QUICKER. LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO WARM SOME MORE WITH HIGHER HGTS AND THE WEAKER SEABREEZE.

MORE MARINE LAYER AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY LARGE TROF APPROACHES THE WEST COAST BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER HGTS.

THE EC AND THE GFS NO AGREE THAT THE TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW JUST WENT FOR THE DEEP MARINE LAYER AND MUCH
COOLER SCENARIO BUT HAVE TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF LESS MARINE
LAYER BUT MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FCST FOR THIS
TROF EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1200Z

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAFS FOR COAST AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS AFFECT MUCH OF THE COAST AND SOME
OF THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING...GENERALLY LIFR N OF POINT CONCEPTION
AND IFR TO LOW MVFR FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT THE LAYER TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE MORNING BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN DURING THE EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. 40% CHANCE
STRATUS WILL AFFECT THE SAN FERNANDO AND SALINAS VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE 17Z THIS MORNING. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
STRATUS RETURN THIS EVENING.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS MAY DISSIPATE +/- 2
HR FROM TAF TIME OF 17Z. 40% CHANCE OF LOW CIGS RETURNING LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 161043
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
1800 FOOT MARINE LAYER AND A WEAK EDDY HAVE BROUGHT A STRATUS DECK
TO MUCH OF THE COASTS AND VLYS THIS MORNING AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL IN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CLEAR BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME ACROSS THE COASTS AND
INTERIOR AS THEY WERE YDY BUT THE VLYS WILL COOL DUE TO THE DEEPER
MARINE LAYER.

LOOK FOR A SIMILAR MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN TONIGHT. BUT THE
CLEARING THURSDAY WILL BE SLOWER AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN
A FEW BEACHES WITH NO CLEARING DUE TO THE FACT THE A WEAK UPPER TROF
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PROVIDE A LITTLE LIFT AND ADDITIONAL
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. BETTER ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER HGTS WILL
PROVIDE COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

ALL MDLS FCST A BIG BROAD TROF TO MOVE OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR A SUPER DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH CLOUDS EXTENDING THROUGH ALL
THE VLYS AND ONTO THE COASTAL SLOPES. SLOW TO NO CLEARING ACROSS THE
COASTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE VLYS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR SOME MORNING DRIZZLE AS WELL. THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
A LITTLE RIDGING ON TAP FOR SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD SMOOSH THE MARINE
LAYER DOWN SOME AND ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WARM UP FOR THE VLYS AND
INTERIOR. THE COASTS WILL REMAIN COOL.

A BROAD PRETTY FLAT RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTS AND MANY
VLYS. GRADIENTS RELAX AND CLEARING SHOULD BE QUICKER. LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO WARM SOME MORE WITH HIGHER HGTS AND THE WEAKER SEABREEZE.

MORE MARINE LAYER AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY LARGE TROF APPROACHES THE WEST COAST BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER HGTS.

THE EC AND THE GFS NO AGREE THAT THE TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW JUST WENT FOR THE DEEP MARINE LAYER AND MUCH
COOLER SCENARIO BUT HAVE TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF LESS MARINE
LAYER BUT MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FCST FOR THIS
TROF EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1800Z
MARINE CLOUDS WILL HUG THE COAST ALL DAY AND MOVE ONSHORE EARLIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE MARINE LAYER STARTED THE DAY OUT AT 800
FEET DEEP AND IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO ABOUT 1500 FEET TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE THE VALLEY TAFS VULNERABLE TO MARINE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...SCT V BKN SKIES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
MARINE CLOUDS MOVE IN FOR GOOD WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS EVENING. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MARINE CLOUDS MOVE
IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







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