000
FXUS66 KLOX 181742
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1041 AM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEVELOPING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY PRESSURE DIFFERENCE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE SAME AREAS, CENTRAL COAST, SRN SBA COUNTY, I5 CORRIDOR, AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN ALL THOSE
AREAS. INVERSION REMAINS WEAK AND MARINE LYR CLOUDS WERE SPOTTY AT
BEST. GRADIENTS TRENDING A MB OR SO OFFSHORE SO WITH ALL ELSE BEING
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

RIDGE BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH MONDAY BEING THE
WARMEST DAY. MONDAY MORNING A DECENT LITTLE NORTHEAST PUSH SETS UP
MAINLY FOR THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. BUT THE COMBINATION OF THAT AND
THE RIDGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPS UP INTO THE 90S FOR THE
WARMER VALLEYS. MARINE LYR SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE SOLID AS THE
INVERSION STRENGTHENS, BUT COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO LA
COUNTY COAST.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
ALL XTND MDLS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM AND NOTHING HAS
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST THINKING. A LARGE COOL UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY THEN SETTLE OVER OREGON AND THEN SPIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH A GROWING
MARINE LAYER AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY
WEDNESDAY THE ONSHORE FLOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COMBINE TO DRIVE
THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE VALLEYS. COASTAL CLEARING WILL BE SLOW AND
SOME BEACHES WILL LIKELY STAY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMALS ACROSS THE COAST AND VLYS BUT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL APPROACH THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND MID LEVEL LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
TOPS APPROXIMATELY 4KFT THIS MORNING WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 2.5KFT
SUNDAY MORNING. MIXED WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE AND NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KLAX...SCT 025 LIKELY THROUGH 18/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 012 BETWEEN
19/12-19/18Z.

KBUR...CHANCE VSBY 5SM HZ AFTER 09/10Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 181615
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEVELOPING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY PRESSURE DIFFERENCE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE SAME AREAS, CENTRAL COAST, SRN SBA COUNTY, I5 CORRIDOR, AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN ALL THOSE
AREAS. INVERSION REMAINS WEAK AND MARINE LYR CLOUDS WERE SPOTTY AT
BEST. GRADIENTS TRENDING A MB OR SO OFFSHORE SO WITH ALL ELSE BEING
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

RIDGE BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH MONDAY BEING THE
WARMEST DAY. MONDAY MORNING A DECENT LITTLE NORTHEAST PUSH SETS UP
MAINLY FOR THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. BUT THE COMBINATION OF THAT AND
THE RIDGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPS UP INTO THE 90S FOR THE
WARMER VALLEYS. MARINE LYR SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE SOLID AS THE
INVERSION STRENGTHENS, BUT COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO LA
COUNTY COAST.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
ALL XTND MDLS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM AND NOTHING HAS
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST THINKING. A LARGE COOL UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY THEN SETTLE OVER OREGON AND THEN SPIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH A GROWING
MARINE LAYER AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY
WEDNESDAY THE ONSHORE FLOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COMBINE TO DRIVE
THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE VALLEYS. COASTAL CLEARING WILL BE SLOW AND
SOME BEACHES WILL LIKELY STAY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMALS ACROSS THE COAST AND VLYS BUT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
18/1140Z

AREAS OF STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS L.A.
COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF VTU COUNTY...WITH CONDS MOSTLY MVFR.
N OF PT CONCEPTION...STRATUS WITH GENERALLY IFR CONDS WILL AFFECT
THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST
THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO BECOME MORE
SHALLOW TONIGHT...WITH STRATUS LIKELY CONFINED TO COASTAL SECTIONS
OF L.A. COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST.

GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL CAUSE SOME LLWS
AND MDT TO STG UDDF IN THE VCNTY OF KSBA.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL ARRIVE AS LATE AS 12Z TONIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...DB
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 181145 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION....UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 AM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEVELOPING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COOLING TREND IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS FROM A LARGE 590 DM UPPER HIGH TO THE SW. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE MONDAY.
STRATUS IS RELUCTANT TO FORM AS COOL AIR FROM YDYS WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE HAS GREATLY WEAKENED THE INVERSION. FOR THE MOST PART
STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO L.A. COUNTY. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE IN THE
INTERIOR TODAY AND SUNDAY BUT NOT TOO MUCH ACROSS THE COASTS. ON
MONDAY THERE WILL BE WARMING EVERYWHERE WITH THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
AND HIGHER HGTS. BIG SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE WINDS AS STRONG NW
SFC FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP LATER THIS MORNING. ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE THE SBA/VTA/LA MTNS...THE SBA SOUTH
COAST AND THE ANTELOPE VLY. THE FLOW WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
ADVISORIES ARE UNLIKELY BUT THERE WILL STILL BE BREEZY JUST NOT
ADVISORY LEVEL.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
ALL XTND MDLS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM AND NOTHING HAS
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST THINKING. A LARGE COOL UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY THEN SETTLE OVER OREGON AND THEN SPIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH A GROWING
MARINE LAYER AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY
WEDNESDAY THE ONSHORE FLOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COMBINE TO DRIVE
THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE VALLEYS. COASTAL CLEARING WILL BE SLOW AND
SOME BEACHES WILL LIKELY STAY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMALS ACROSS THE COAST AND VLYS BUT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
18/1140Z

AREAS OF STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS L.A.
COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF VTU COUNTY...WITH CONDS MOSTLY MVFR.
N OF PT CONCEPTION...STRATUS WITH GENERALLY IFR CONDS WILL AFFECT
THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST
THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO BECOME MORE
SHALLOW TONIGHT...WITH STRATUS LIKELY CONFINED TO COASTAL SECTIONS
OF L.A. COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST.

GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL CAUSE SOME LLWS
AND MDT TO STG UDDF IN THE VCNTY OF KSBA.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL ARRIVE AS LATE AS 12Z TONIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 181046
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEVELOPING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COOLING TREND IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS FROM A LARGE 590 DM UPPER HIGH TO THE SW. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE MONDAY.
STRATUS IS RELUCTANT TO FORM AS COOL AIR FROM YDYS WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE HAS GREATLY WEAKENED THE INVERSION. FOR THE MOST PART
STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO L.A. COUNTY. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE IN THE
INTERIOR TODAY AND SUNDAY BUT NOT TOO MUCH ACROSS THE COASTS. ON
MONDAY THERE WILL BE WARMING EVERYWHERE WITH THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
AND HIGHER HGTS. BIG SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE WINDS AS STRONG NW
SFC FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP LATER THIS MORNING. ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE THE SBA/VTA/LA MTNS...THE SBA SOUTH
COAST AND THE ANTELOPE VLY. THE FLOW WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
ADVISORIES ARE UNLIKELY BUT THERE WILL STILL BE BREEZY JUST NOT
ADVISORY LEVEL.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
ALL XTND MDLS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM AND NOTHING HAS
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST THINKING. A LARGE COOL UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY THEN SETTLE OVER OREGON AND THEN SPIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH A GROWING
MARINE LAYER AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY
WEDNESDAY THE ONSHORE FLOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COMBINE TO DRIVE
THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE VALLEYS. COASTAL CLEARING WILL BE SLOW AND
SOME BEACHES WILL LIKELY STAY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMALS ACROSS THE COAST AND VLYS BUT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...

18/0600Z

EXPECT STRATUS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDS TO OVERSPREAD L.A. COUNTY AND
PROBABLY MOST OF VTU COUNTY OVERNIGHT. N OF PT CONCEPTION...EXPECT
STRATUS TO BE MORE PATCHY IN NATURE...PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE SANTA
YNEZ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST. WITH A MORE
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER UP NORTH...IFR TO LIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED.
GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE WILL CAUSE SOME LLWS AND MDT TO STG UDDF IN THE VCNTY OF KSBA
THRU LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT EVENING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL ARRIVE AS LATE AS 12Z.


KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 08Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 180526 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1025 PM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEVELOPING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COOLING TREND IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...

A LINGERING TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WILL PERMIT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A COOLER AIR MASS SETTLING INTO THE
STATE WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. KSBA-KSMX SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE HOVERING NEAR -4 MB THIS EVENING WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS BETWEEN GOLETA AND GAVIOTA SEEING ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ALREADY. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR FOR
DEVELOPING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...KSBA SET THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 72
DEGREES FOR TODAY AT 652 PM THIS EVENING AS THE SUNDOWNER WINDS
CREATED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. THE AIR TEMPERATURE JUMPED 7
DEGREES IN A HOUR AT KSBA...WHILE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES DROPPED
11 DEGREES.

WITH NORTHERLY GRADIENTS DEVELOPING...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD
SEE DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OCCURRING ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM..STILL EXPECTING A STRONG BURST OF NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE I5 CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT AS THE RIDGE STARTS NUDGING IN.
SHOULD AT LEAS BE ADVISORY LEVEL THERE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH
SO THAT WILL BE A CONCERN FOR FIRE FIGHTERS IN THAT AREA.

WARMEST DAYS WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH MODELS HAVE SCALED
BACK SOMEWHAT ON THE RIDGE STRENGTH AND ANY OFFSHORE FLOW. 12Z NAM
DOES SHOW A NEUTRAL GRADIENT MONDAY MORNING WITH A -3 24 HR TREND
WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CLOUDS OUT OF MOST OF THE VALLEYS BUT
NOT LIKELY THE LA/VENTURA COAST. WARMER VALLEY AREAS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN
BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS TROFFING REPLACES THE RIDGE.
ECMWF SHOWS THE TROF BOTTOMING OUT THU WITH WARMING BEGINNING FRIDAY
WHILE THE GFS DEEPENS THE TROF THROUGH AT LEAST SAT FOR EVEN COOLER
WEATHER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. FAVORING THE COOLER GFS SCENARIO FOR
NOW. LOOKS PRETTY WINDY OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LIKELY SETTING US UP FOR A SIZABLE EDDY
CIRCULATION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LIMITED MARINE LYR CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION...17/0525Z.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDS TO OVERSPREAD L.A. COUNTY AND
PROBABLY MOST OF VTU COUNTY OVERNIGHT. N OF PT CONCEPTION...EXPECT
STRATUS TO BE MORE PATCHY IN NATURE...PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE SANTA
YNEZ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST. WITH A MORE
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER UP NORTH...IFR TO LIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED.
GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE WILL CAUSE SOME LLWS AND MDT TO STG UDDF IN THE VCNTY OF KSBA
THRU LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SKIES TO REMAIN
CLEAR.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT EVENING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL ARRIVE AS LATE AS 12Z.


KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 08Z.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...DB
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 180427
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
927 PM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEVELOPING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COOLING TREND IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...

A LINGERING TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WILL PERMIT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A COOLER AIR MASS SETTLING INTO THE
STATE WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. KSBA-KSMX SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE HOVERING NEAR -4 MB THIS EVENING WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS BETWEEN GOLETA AND GAVIOTA SEEING ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ALREADY. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR FOR
DEVELOPING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...KSBA SET THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 72
DEGREES FOR TODAY AT 652 PM THIS EVENING AS THE SUNDOWNER WINDS
CREATED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. THE AIR TEMPERATURE JUMPED 7
DEGREES IN A HOUR AT KSBA...WHILE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES DROPPED
11 DEGREES.

WITH NORTHERLY GRADIENTS DEVELOPING...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD
SEE DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OCCURRING ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM..STILL EXPECTING A STRONG BURST OF NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE I5 CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT AS THE RIDGE STARTS NUDGING IN.
SHOULD AT LEAS BE ADVISORY LEVEL THERE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH
SO THAT WILL BE A CONCERN FOR FIRE FIGHTERS IN THAT AREA.

WARMEST DAYS WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH MODELS HAVE SCALED
BACK SOMEWHAT ON THE RIDGE STRENGTH AND ANY OFFSHORE FLOW. 12Z NAM
DOES SHOW A NEUTRAL GRADIENT MONDAY MORNING WITH A -3 24 HR TREND
WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CLOUDS OUT OF MOST OF THE VALLEYS BUT
NOT LIKELY THE LA/VENTURA COAST. WARMER VALLEY AREAS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN
BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS TROFFING REPLACES THE RIDGE.
ECMWF SHOWS THE TROF BOTTOMING OUT THU WITH WARMING BEGINNING FRIDAY
WHILE THE GFS DEEPENS THE TROF THROUGH AT LEAST SAT FOR EVEN COOLER
WEATHER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. FAVORING THE COOLER GFS SCENARIO FOR
NOW. LOOKS PRETTY WINDY OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LIKELY SETTING US UP FOR A SIZABLE EDDY
CIRCULATION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LIMITED MARINE LYR CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION...17/0005Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
05Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO COASTAL TERMINALS
SOUTH OF KOXR THROUGH 13Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD PUSH INTO VALLEY TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. PERIODS OF
MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE AT KSBA THROUGH 08Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 05Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...THEN THERE
IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 13Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z...THEN THERE
IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 180008 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
508 PM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW WILL SLOWLY EXIT INTO SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TO BE BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS INTO SUNDAY. A HIGH WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY...TO RAISE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL AND REDUCE THE MARINE LAYER THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK TO DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER...INCREASE WINDS...AND LOWER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK MARINE INVERSION
CONTINUE, RESULTING IN SPORADIC MORNING CLOUDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTERNOONS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FUNNEL GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE NEXT COUPLE DAYS,
PUSHING THE ADVISORY ENVELOPE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SRN SBA COUNTY COAST. ALSO BREEZY ACROSS THE I5 CORRIDOR AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY.

NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH CHANGE SATURDAY. THE RIDGE DOES START TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA BUT WARMING WILL BE MINIMAL AND MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE INTERIOR. INVERSION WILL STILL BE WEAK AND REALLY NOT
EXPECTING A SOLID MARINE LYR TO DEVELOP EXCEPT POSSIBLY NORTH OF PT
CONCEPTION.

STILL EXPECTING A STRONG BURST OF NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE I5
CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT AS THE RIDGE STARTS NUDGING IN. SHOULD AT LEAS BE
ADVISORY LEVEL THERE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH SO THAT WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR FIRE FIGHTERS IN THAT AREA.

WARMEST DAYS WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH MODELS HAVE SCALED
BACK SOMEWHAT ON THE RIDGE STRENGTH AND ANY OFFSHORE FLOW. 12Z NAM
DOES SHOW A NEUTRAL GRADIENT MONDAY MORNING WITH A -3 24 HR TREND
WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CLOUDS OUT OF MOST OF THE VALLEYS BUT
NOT LIKELY THE LA/VENTURA COAST. WARMER VALLEY AREAS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN
BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS TROFFING REPLACES THE RIDGE.
ECMWF SHOWS THE TROF BOTTOMING OUT THU WITH WARMING BEGINNING FRIDAY
WHILE THE GFS DEEPENS THE TROF THROUGH AT LEAST SAT FOR EVEN COOLER
WEATHER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. FAVORING THE COOLER GFS SCENARIO FOR
NOW. LOOKS PRETTY WINDY OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LIKELY SETTING US UP FOR A SIZABLE EDDY
CIRCULATION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LIMITED MARINE LYR CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION...17/0005Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
05Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO COASTAL TERMINALS
SOUTH OF KOXR THROUGH 13Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD PUSH INTO VALLEY TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. PERIODS OF
MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE AT KSBA THROUGH 08Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 05Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...THEN THERE
IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 13Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z...THEN THERE
IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 172108
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
205 PM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW WILL SLOWLY EXIT INTO SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TO BE BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS INTO SUNDAY. A HIGH WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY...TO RAISE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL AND REDUCE THE MARINE LAYER THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK TO DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER...INCREASE WINDS...AND LOWER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK MARINE INVERSION
CONTINUE, RESULTING IN SPORADIC MORNING CLOUDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTERNOONS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FUNNEL GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE NEXT COUPLE DAYS,
PUSHING THE ADVISORY ENVELOPE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SRN SBA COUNTY COAST. ALSO BREEZY ACROSS THE I5 CORRIDOR AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY.

NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH CHANGE SATURDAY. THE RIDGE DOES START TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA BUT WARMING WILL BE MINIMAL AND MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE INTERIOR. INVERSION WILL STILL BE WEAK AND REALLY NOT
EXPECTING A SOLID MARINE LYR TO DEVELOP EXCEPT POSSIBLY NORTH OF PT
CONCEPTION.

STILL EXPECTING A STRONG BURST OF NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE I5
CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT AS THE RIDGE STARTS NUDGING IN. SHOULD AT LEAS BE
ADVISORY LEVEL THERE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH SO THAT WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR FIRE FIGHTERS IN THAT AREA.

WARMEST DAYS WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH MODELS HAVE SCALED
BACK SOMEWHAT ON THE RIDGE STRENGTH AND ANY OFFSHORE FLOW. 12Z NAM
DOES SHOW A NEUTRAL GRADIENT MONDAY MORNING WITH A -3 24 HR TREND
WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CLOUDS OUT OF MOST OF THE VALLEYS BUT
NOT LIKELY THE LA/VENTURA COAST. WARMER VALLEY AREAS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN
BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS TROFFING REPLACES THE RIDGE.
ECMWF SHOWS THE TROF BOTTOMING OUT THU WITH WARMING BEGINNING FRIDAY
WHILE THE GFS DEEPENS THE TROF THROUGH AT LEAST SAT FOR EVEN COOLER
WEATHER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. FAVORING THE COOLER GFS SCENARIO FOR
NOW. LOOKS PRETTY WINDY OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS TUEDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LIKELY SETTING US UP FOR A SIZABLE EDDY
CIRCULATION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LIMITED MARINE LYR CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1800Z...
OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE IS LOW TO MODERATE.
EXPECTING DISORGANIZED LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER TRIES TO REDEVELOP UNDER A
WEAKENED MARINE INVERSION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL
REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
LOS ANGELES COUNTY. LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE
MARINE LAYER FROM OXNARD ON NORTH. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AT KSBP LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.
DEVELOPMENT AT KSMX SEEMS MUCH MORE LIKELY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
MOST SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY SO SOME STRATO CUMULUS
COULD BECOME BROKEN AT TIMES.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT BROKEN CIGS AROUND 3000
FEET COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 19Z-04Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH A 30% CHANCE CIGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT MARINE
LAYER STRATUS WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 171824
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1125 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND ONSHORE BREEZES WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
SATURDAY AND PEAK ON MONDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP
TUESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...TROF HAS PASSED TAKING THE SWATH OF HIGH
CLOUDS WITH IT. AS EXPECTED MARINE LYR CLOUDS DEVELOPED VERY
RANDOMLY OVERNIGHT AND ARE ERODING PRETTY QUICKLY UNDER A WEAK
INVERSION. STILL A DECENT ONSHORE PUSH TODAY SO WITH SOME AFTERNOON
HEATING I EXPECT CLOUDS WILL START TO REFORM ACROSS VENTURA AND LA
COUNTIES SO THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE
THIS MORNING AND ADD IN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
A BREEZY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY WHERE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL AGAIN FUNNEL THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS. MODELS
INDICATE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT SO WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER A LOW GRADE ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THIS EVENING. I`M MORE
IMPRESSED WITH THE NORTHWEST PUSH THROUGH THE GRAPEVINE AREA SAT
EVENING WHERE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS. A POTENTIAL CONCERN FOR FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS THERE.

FOR TONIGHT STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE A SOLID MARINE LYR SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION AS THE INVERSION REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. LIKELY ANOTHER
ROUND OF RANDOM LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS VENTURA/LA COUNTIES AND
A LITTLE MORE SOLID ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST, ESPECIALLY NRN SBA
COUNTY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MDLS NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH RIDGING
ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. LOOKS MORE LIKE NW ZONAL FLOW BETWEEN
A EAST PAC HIGH TO OUR SW AND A BIG HONKING UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HGTS DO RISE UP TO 585 DM SO THE INLAND AREAS WILL WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL. DECENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP A NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REGIME GOING FOR THE COASTS AND THE LOWER VLYS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
FOR COASTS AND VLYS.

LOOKS LIKE THE BIG WARM UP FOR MONDAY IS NOT GOING TO PAN OUT. ALL
MDLS NOW SHOW JUST A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN RIDGING OVER THE AREA
MONDAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONSHORE FLOW THOUGH WEAKER WILL NOT
TURN ONSHORE. SO MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY AND STILL
ABOVE NORMAL JUST NOT AS HOT AS FCST. KEPT THE CLEAR FORECAST BUT
THIS MAY WELL PROVE TO BE OPTIMISTIC - OF MARINE CLOUDS DO PERSIST
THEN COASTAL TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE COOLER.

.LONG TERM (TUE-THU)...
A LARGE COOL UPPER LOW SPINS INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY AND THEN TAKES
UP RESIDENCE IN OREGON WEDNESDAY AND SITS AND SPINS THERE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. HGTS SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL. WITH A HEALTHY DOES OF CYCLONIC
FLOW OVERHEAD THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL TO NORMAL TUESDAY AND THEN FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE GREATEST COOLING OVER THE
COASTS AND VLYS. THE MTNS AND DESERTS WILL ACTUALLY BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z

OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE IS LOW TO MODERATE.
EXPECTING DISORGANIZED LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER TRIES TO REDEVELOP UNDER A
WEAKENED MARINE INVERSION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL
REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
LOS ANGELES COUNTY. LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE
MARINE LAYER FROM OXNARD ON NORTH. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AT KSBP LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.
DEVELOPMENT AT KSMX SEEMS MUCH MORE LIKELY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
MOST SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY SO SOME STRATO CUMULUS
COULD BECOME BROKEN AT TIMES.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT BROKEN CIGS AROUND 3000
FEET COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 19Z-04Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH A 30% CHANCE CIGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT MARINE
LAYER STRATUS WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...SS
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 171624
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND ONSHORE BREEZES WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
SATURDAY AND PEAK ON MONDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP
TUESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...TROF HAS PASSED TAKING THE SWATH OF HIGH
CLOUDS WITH IT. AS EXPECTED MARINE LYR CLOUDS DEVELOPED VERY
RANDOMLY OVERNIGHT AND ARE ERODING PRETTY QUICKLY UNDER A WEAK
INVERSION. STILL A DECENT ONSHORE PUSH TODAY SO WITH SOME AFTERNOON
HEATING I EXPECT CLOUDS WILL START TO REFORM ACROSS VENTURA AND LA
COUNTIES SO THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE
THIS MORNING AND ADD IN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
A BREEZY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY WHERE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL AGAIN FUNNEL THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS. MODELS
INDICATE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT SO WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER A LOW GRADE ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THIS EVENING. I`M MORE
IMPRESSED WITH THE NORTHWEST PUSH THROUGH THE GRAPEVINE AREA SAT
EVENING WHERE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS. A POTENTIAL CONCERN FOR FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS THERE.

FOR TONIGHT STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE A SOLID MARINE LYR SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION AS THE INVERSION REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. LIKELY ANOTHER
ROUND OF RANDOM LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS VENTURA/LA COUNTIES AND
A LITTLE MORE SOLID ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST, ESPECIALLY NRN SBA
COUNTY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MDLS NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH RIDGING
ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. LOOKS MORE LIKE NW ZONAL FLOW BETWEEN
A EAST PAC HIGH TO OUR SW AND A BIG HONKING UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HGTS DO RISE UP TO 585 DM SO THE INLAND AREAS WILL WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL. DECENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP A NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REGIME GOING FOR THE COASTS AND THE LOWER VLYS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
FOR COASTS AND VLYS.

LOOKS LIKE THE BIG WARM UP FOR MONDAY IS NOT GOING TO PAN OUT. ALL
MDLS NOW SHOW JUST A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN RIDGING OVER THE AREA
MONDAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONSHORE FLOW THOUGH WEAKER WILL NOT
TURN ONSHORE. SO MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY AND STILL
ABOVE NORMAL JUST NOT AS HOT AS FCST. KEPT THE CLEAR FORECAST BUT
THIS MAY WELL PROVE TO BE OPTIMISTIC - OF MARINE CLOUDS DO PERSIST
THEN COASTAL TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE COOLER.

.LONG TERM (TUE-THU)...
A LARGE COOL UPPER LOW SPINS INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY AND THEN TAKES
UP RESIDENCE IN OREGON WEDNESDAY AND SITS AND SPINS THERE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. HGTS SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL. WITH A HEALTHY DOES OF CYCLONIC
FLOW OVERHEAD THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL TO NORMAL TUESDAY AND THEN FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE GREATEST COOLING OVER THE
COASTS AND VLYS. THE MTNS AND DESERTS WILL ACTUALLY BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...17/12Z

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE LAYER FURTHER MOVING
ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
AND ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER... CONTINUED LOW
TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE EXACTLY AND THE TIMING OF THE
INCURSION.  IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT WHAT DOES FORM WILL THIN AND
DRIFT AT TIMES.  THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST AND ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS.  AFTER 18Z... THE LOW CLOUD DECK
WILL SCATTER IN MOST LOCATIONS AND LIFT A BIT BUT NOT CLEAR
COMPLETELY THEN WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 02Z.

ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KLAX...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE LAYER FURTHER MOVING
ONSHORE... HOWEVER CONTINUED LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE INCURSION.  IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT WHAT DOES FORM WILL
THIN AND DRIFT AT TIMES.  THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
12Z-18Z.  AFTER 18Z... THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL SCATTER AND LIFT A
BIT BUT NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY THEN WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 02Z.

KBUR...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE LAYER REMAINING IN THE
AREA THROUGH 17Z THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY THIN AND DRIFT DURING THAT
PERIOD.  THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF DRIZZLE 12Z-18Z.  AFTER 18Z... THE
LOW CLOUD DECK WILL SCATTER AND LIFT A BIT BUT NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY
THEN WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 04Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 171151
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND ONSHORE BREEZES WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
SATURDAY AND PEAK ON MONDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP
TUESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
PRETTY RANDOM MARINE CLOUD PATTERN DUE TO A WEAKENED INVERSION
BROUGHT ON BY A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WHICH ROLLED OVERHEAD
OVERNIGHT. DRIZZLE NOW SEEMS PRETTY UNLIKELY AS THE CIGS ARE MUCH
TOO HIGH OR NON EXISTENT AND THE LIFT WITH THE TROF HAS ALREADY
PASSED. ONLY LEFT DRIZZLE ON THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS WHERE THERE
ARE CLOUDS AND SOME LIFT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THE DYING
FRONT ARE OBSCURING MUCH OF THE AREA MAKING IT HARD TO GET AN
ACCURATE READ ON THE LOW CLOUDS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY L.A.
COUNTY...THE CENTRAL COAST...AND THE NORTH SLOPES HAVE CLOUDS. NORTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES
AS WELL. AFTERNOON CLEARING LOOKS GOOD AND EXPECT A SUNNY AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND RISING HGTS BEHIND THE TROF WILL BUMP UP MAX
TEMPS FROM YDY 3 TO 6 DEGREES.

MDLS NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH RIDGING
ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. LOOKS MORE LIKE NW ZONAL FLOW BETWEEN
A EAST PAC HIGH TO OUR SW AND A BIG HONKING UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HGTS DO RISE UP TO 585 DM SO THE INLAND AREAS WILL WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL. DECENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP A NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REGIME GOING FOR THE COASTS AND THE LOWER VLYS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
FOR COASTS AND VLYS.

LOOKS LIKE THE BIG WARM UP FOR MONDAY IS NOT GOING TO PAN OUT. ALL
MDLS NOW SHOW JUST A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN RIDGING OVER THE AREA
MONDAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONSHORE FLOW THOUGH WEAKER WILL NOT
TURN ONSHORE. SO MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY AND STILL
ABOVE NORMAL JUST NOT AS HOT AS FCST. KEPT THE CLEAR FORECAST BUT
THIS MAY WELL PROVE TO BE OPTIMISTIC - OF MARINE CLOUDS DO PERSIST
THEN COASTAL TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE COOLER.

.LONG TERM (TUE-THU)...
A LARGE COOL UPPER LOW SPINS INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY AND THEN TAKES
UP RESIDENCE IN OREGON WEDNESDAY AND SITS AND SPINS THERE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. HGTS SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL. WITH A HEALTHY DOES OF CYCLONIC
FLOW OVERHEAD THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL TO NORMAL TUESDAY AND THEN FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE GREATEST COOLING OVER THE
COASTS AND VLYS. THE MTNS AND DESERTS WILL ACTUALLY BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...17/12Z

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE LAYER FURTHER MOVING
ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
AND ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER... CONTINUED LOW
TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE EXACTLY AND THE TIMING OF THE
INCURSION.  IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT WHAT DOES FORM WILL THIN AND
DRIFT AT TIMES.  THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST AND ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS.  AFTER 18Z... THE LOW CLOUD DECK
WILL SCATTER IN MOST LOCATIONS AND LIFT A BIT BUT NOT CLEAR
COMPLETELY THEN WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 02Z.

ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KLAX...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE LAYER FURTHER MOVING
ONSHORE... HOWEVER CONTINUED LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE INCURSION.  IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT WHAT DOES FORM WILL
THIN AND DRIFT AT TIMES.  THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
12Z-18Z.  AFTER 18Z... THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL SCATTER AND LIFT A
BIT BUT NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY THEN WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 02Z.

KBUR...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE LAYER REMAINING IN THE
AREA THROUGH 17Z THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY THIN AND DRIFT DURING THAT
PERIOD.  THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF DRIZZLE 12Z-18Z.  AFTER 18Z... THE
LOW CLOUD DECK WILL SCATTER AND LIFT A BIT BUT NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY
THEN WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 04Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 171033
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND ONSHORE BREEZES WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
SATURDAY AND PEAK ON MONDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP
TUESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
PRETTY RANDOM MARINE CLOUD PATTERN DUE TO A WEAKENED INVERSION
BROUGHT ON BY A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WHICH ROLLED OVERHEAD
OVERNIGHT. DRIZZLE NOW SEEMS PRETTY UNLIKELY AS THE CIGS ARE MUCH
TOO HIGH OR NON EXISTENT AND THE LIFT WITH THE TROF HAS ALREADY
PASSED. ONLY LEFT DRIZZLE ON THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS WHERE THERE
ARE CLOUDS AND SOME LIFT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THE DYING
FRONT ARE OBSCURING MUCH OF THE AREA MAKING IT HARD TO GET AN
ACCURATE READ ON THE LOW CLOUDS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY L.A.
COUNTY...THE CENTRAL COAST...AND THE NORTH SLOPES HAVE CLOUDS. NORTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES
AS WELL. AFTERNOON CLEARING LOOKS GOOD AND EXPECT A SUNNY AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND RISING HGTS BEHIND THE TROF WILL BUMP UP MAX
TEMPS FROM YDY 3 TO 6 DEGREES.

MDLS NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH RIDGING
ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. LOOKS MORE LIKE NW ZONAL FLOW BETWEEN
A EAST PAC HIGH TO OUR SW AND A BIG HONKING UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HGTS DO RISE UP TO 585 DM SO THE INLAND AREAS WILL WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL. DECENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP A NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REGIME GOING FOR THE COASTS AND THE LOWER VLYS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
FOR COASTS AND VLYS.

LOOKS LIKE THE BIG WARM UP FOR MONDAY IS NOT GOING TO PAN OUT. ALL
MDLS NOW SHOW JUST A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN RIDGING OVER THE AREA
MONDAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONSHORE FLOW THOUGH WEAKER WILL NOT
TURN ONSHORE. SO MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY AND STILL
ABOVE NORMAL JUST NOT AS HOT AS FCST. KEPT THE CLEAR FORECAST BUT
THIS MAY WELL PROVE TO BE OPTIMISTIC - OF MARINE CLOUDS DO PERSIST
THEN COASTAL TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE COOLER.

.LONG TERM (TUE-THU)...
A LARGE COOL UPPER LOW SPINS INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY AND THEN TAKES
UP RESIDENCE IN OREGON WEDNESDAY AND SITS AND SPINS THERE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. HGTS SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL. WITH A HEALTHY DOES OF CYCLONIC
FLOW OVERHEAD THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL TO NORMAL TUESDAY AND THEN FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE GREATEST COOLING OVER THE
COASTS AND VLYS. THE MTNS AND DESERTS WILL ACTUALLY BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

17/0600Z

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE LAYER MOVING ONSHORE ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST AND ADJACENT
INLAND VALLEYS.  HOWEVER... ONLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE AS TO
WHERE EXACTLY AND THE TIMING OF THE INCURSION.  ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WHAT STRATUS DOES FORM WILL NOT NECESSARILY
STAND FIRM THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL LIKELY THIN AND DRIFT AT TIMES
DURING THE NIGHT.  THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST AND ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS.  AFTER 18Z... THE LOW
CLOUD DECK WILL SCATTER IN MOST LOCATIONS AND LIFT A BIT BUT NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY THEN WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 02Z.

ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KLAX...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE LAYER MOVING ONSHORE...
HOWEVER ONLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE AS TO THE TIMING OF THE
INCURSION.  ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WHAT STRATUS DOES FORM
WILL NOT NECESSARILY STAND FIRM THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL LIKELY
THIN AND DRIFT AT TIMES DURING THE NIGHT.  THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE 12Z-18Z.  AFTER 18Z... THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL SCATTER AND
LIFT A BIT BUT NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY THEN WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 02Z.

KBUR...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE LAYER MOVING INTO THE SAN
FERNANDO VALLEY OVERNIGHT... HOWEVER ONLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
AS TO THE TIMING OF THE INCURSION.  THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
12Z-18Z.  AFTER 18Z... THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL SCATTER AND LIFT A
BIT BUT NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY THEN WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 04Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 170559 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...POSSIBLE MORNING DRIZZLE...AND
ONSHORE BREEZES WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON
FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND PEAK ON MONDAY WITH
A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...A WEAK AND DRY TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH OF A
LOW CLOUD FIELD WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AND THE FACT THAT MARINE INVERSION HAS
WEAKENED QUITE A BIT. LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO REDEVELOP ON
THE CENTRAL COAST...AND SOME STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
ORANGE COUNTY AND SRN SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SO...THE CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWING ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AND THE
DEEP MARINE LAYER (OVER 3000 FEET DEEP).

GUSTY WINDS CONTD ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. SOME GUSTY WINDS
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SOUTHERN
SBA COUNTY...ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A LOW LEVEL WIND ADVISORY THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS OUT OF SOUTHERN
SBA COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST VERY LATE TONIGHT.


.FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY FRIDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE
COAST, MOUNTAINS, AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE AV. THE HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE TROF EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH BY MORNING SO EITHER
MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON.

A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS.
STILL A FAIRLY WEAK INVERSION FOR SOUTHERN AREAS SO NOT A REAL SOLID
MARINE LYR EXPECTED. RIDGE STARTS BUILDING OVER THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING FOR INLAND AREAS
AND LESS SO FOR THE COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. THE BUILDING OF
THE RIDGE WITH TROFFING TO OUR EAST WILL PUT THE SQUEEZE ON THE
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND WE COULD SEE SOME
ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE GRAPEVINE AND SRN SBA COUNTY
DURING THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE
MONDAY UNDER WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS WARM AS IT
DID A COUPLE DAYS AGO BUT STILL 90S IN THE VALLEYS AND 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR COASTAL AREAS. JUST A BRIEF WARMUP THOUGH AS THE NEXT TROF
BRINGS COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY BY THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...17/06Z...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE LAYER MOVING ONSHORE ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST AND ADJACENT
INLAND VALLEYS.  HOWEVER... ONLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE AS TO
WHERE EXACTLY AND THE TIMING OF THE INCURSION.  ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WHAT STRATUS DOES FORM WILL NOT NECESSARILY
STAND FIRM THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL LIKELY THIN AND DRIFT AT TIMES
DURING THE NIGHT.  THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST AND ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS.  AFTER 18Z... THE LOW
CLOUD DECK WILL SCATTER IN MOST LOCATIONS AND LIFT A BIT BUT NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY THEN WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 02Z.

ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KLAX...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE LAYER MOVING ONSHORE...
HOWEVER ONLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE AS TO THE TIMING OF THE
INCURSION.  ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WHAT STRATUS DOES FORM
WILL NOT NECESSARILY STAND FIRM THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL LIKELY
THIN AND DRIFT AT TIMES DURING THE NIGHT.  THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE 12Z-18Z.  AFTER 18Z... THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL SCATTER AND
LIFT A BIT BUT NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY THEN WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 02Z.

KBUR...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE LAYER MOVING INTO THE SAN
FERNANDO VALLEY OVERNIGHT... HOWEVER ONLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
AS TO THE TIMING OF THE INCURSION.  THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
12Z-18Z.  AFTER 18Z... THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL SCATTER AND LIFT A
BIT BUT NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY THEN WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 04Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION.../KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 170315 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...POSSIBLE MORNING DRIZZLE...AND
ONSHORE BREEZES WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON
FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND PEAK ON MONDAY WITH
A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...A WEAK AND DRY TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH OF A
LOW CLOUD FIELD WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AND THE FACT THAT MARINE INVERSION HAS
WEAKENED QUITE A BIT. LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO REDEVELOP ON
THE CENTRAL COAST...AND SOME STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
ORANGE COUNTY AND SRN SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SO...THE CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWING ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AND THE
DEEP MARINE LAYER (OVER 3000 FEET DEEP).

GUSTY WINDS CONTD ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. SOME GUSTY WINDS
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SOUTHERN
SBA COUNTY...ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A LOW LEVEL WIND ADVISORY THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS OUT OF SOUTHERN
SBA COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST VERY LATE TONIGHT.


...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY FRIDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE
COAST, MOUNTAINS, AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE AV. THE HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE TROF EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH BY MORNING SO EITHER
MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON.

A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS.
STILL A FAIRLY WEAK INVERSION FOR SOUTHERN AREAS SO NOT A REAL SOLID
MARINE LYR EXPECTED. RIDGE STARTS BUILDING OVER THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING FOR INLAND AREAS
AND LESS SO FOR THE COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. THE BUILDING OF
THE RIDGE WITH TROFFING TO OUR EAST WILL PUT THE SQUEEZE ON THE
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND WE COULD SEE SOME
ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE GRAPEVINE AND SRN SBA COUNTY
DURING THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE
MONDAY UNDER WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS WARM AS IT
DID A COUPLE DAYS AGO BUT STILL 90S IN THE VALLEYS AND 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR COASTAL AREAS. JUST A BRIEF WARMUP THOUGH AS THE NEXT TROF
BRINGS COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY BY THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...16/2340Z...
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF FORECAST AS IT IS UNCERTAIN EXACTLY
HOW MUCH STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT. THE INVERSION IS QUITE WEAK
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA
WITH STRATUS RE-FORMING AND AFFECTING MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
LATE TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...WITH CONDS MAINLY MVFR.


KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAFS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.


KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAFS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 162338 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS...FOG...WITH
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A HIGH WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL AND REDUCE THE MARINE LAYER THROUGH
MONDAY. A LOW SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY TO DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER...INCREASE WINDS...AND LOWER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...A TROF MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IS
BRINGING A SWATH OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT, RESULTING IN EITHER
PARTLY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE MARINE LYR, WHICH EARLIER
DEEPENED TO 3000 FT, HAS MOSTLY BURNED OFF UNDER A WEAKENING
INVERSION BUT MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. THE TROF`S BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL
BE TO INCREASE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS AND MAINTAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. MARINE LYR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS ANYTHING BUT A SURE
THING AS THE WEAK INVERSION AND HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIKELY KEEP
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE PATCHY AT BEST. LEFT IN DRIZZLE AS THERE`S ENOUGH
ONSHORE PUSH AND COOLING ALOFT TO GENERATE LIFT IN THE LOWER LVLS,
MAINLY FOR LA COUNTY, BUT LOW CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE TOO MINIMAL.

ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY FRIDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE
COAST, MOUNTAINS, AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE AV. THE HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE TROF EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH BY MORNING SO EITHER
MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON.

A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS.
STILL A FAIRLY WEAK INVERSION FOR SOUTHERN AREAS SO NOT A REAL SOLID
MARINE LYR EXPECTED. RIDGE STARTS BUILDING OVER THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING FOR INLAND AREAS
AND LESS SO FOR THE COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. THE BUILDING OF
THE RIDGE WITH TROFFING TO OUR EAST WILL PUT THE SQUEEZE ON THE
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND WE COULD SEE SOME
ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE GRAPEVINE AND SRN SBA COUNTY
DURING THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE
MONDAY UNDER WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS WARM AS IT
DID A COUPLE DAYS AGO BUT STILL 90S IN THE VALLEYS AND 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR COASTAL AREAS. JUST A BRIEF WARMUP THOUGH AS THE NEXT TROF
BRINGS COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY BY THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...16/2340Z...
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF FORECAST AS IT IS UNCERTAIN EXACTLY
HOW MUCH STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT. THE INVERSION IS QUITE WEAK
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA
WITH STRATUS RE-FORMING AND AFFECTING MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
LATE TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...WITH CONDS MAINLY MVFR.


KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAFS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.


KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAFS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 162109
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
210 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS...FOG...WITH
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A HIGH WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL AND REDUCE THE MARINE LAYER THROUGH
MONDAY. A LOW SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY TO DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER...INCREASE WINDS...AND LOWER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...A TROF MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IS
BRINGING A SWATH OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT, RESULTING IN EITHER
PARTLY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE MARINE LYR, WHICH EARLIER
DEEPENED TO 3000 FT, HAS MOSTLY BURNED OFF UNDER A WEAKENING
INVERSION BUT MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. THE TROF`S BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL
BE TO INCREASE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS AND MAINTAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. MARINE LYR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS ANYTHING BUT A SURE
THING AS THE WEAK INVERSION AND HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIKELY KEEP
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE PATCHY AT BEST. LEFT IN DRIZZLE AS THERE`S ENOUGH
ONSHORE PUSH AND COOLING ALOFT TO GENERATE LIFT IN THE LOWER LVLS,
MAINLY FOR LA COUNTY, BUT LOW CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE TOO MINIMAL.

ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY FRIDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE
COAST, MOUNTAINS, AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE AV. THE HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE TROF EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH BY MORNING SO EITHER
MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON.

A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS.
STILL A FAIRLY WEAK INVERSION FOR SOUTHERN AREAS SO NOT A REAL SOLID
MARINE LYR EXPECTED. RIDGE STARTS BUILDING OVER THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING FOR INLAND AREAS
AND LESS SO FOR THE COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. THE BUILDING OF
THE RIDGE WITH TROFFING TO OUR EAST WILL PUT THE SQUEEZE ON THE
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND WE COULD SEE SOME
ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE GRAPEVINE AND SRN SBA COUNTY
DURING THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE
MONDAY UNDER WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS WARM AS IT
DID A COUPLE DAYS AGO BUT STILL 90S IN THE VALLEYS AND 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR COASTAL AREAS. JUST A BRIEF WARMUP THOUGH AS THE NEXT TROF
BRINGS COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY BY THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1800Z...
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH THAT
DEEPENED THE MARINE LAYER OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
DISRUPT MARINE LAYER FORMATION TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HELP TO PRODUCE MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE
COAST AND VALLEY SITES. THE SANTA BARBARA COASTLINE AND LOCATIONS
FARTHER INLAND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR....HOWEVER THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT KSBA OVERNIGHT.  STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE AREAS OF BLDU. CONSIDERABLE SMOKE
FROM GRAND FIRE WILL BE IMPACTING INTERSTATE 5 AREA OF THE MOUNTAINS.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 20Z-04Z TODAY.
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 20Z-04Z TODAY.
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 161751
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASED STRATUS. SOME DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...A TROF MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA HAS DEEPENED THE MARINE LYR TO 3000 FEET THIS MORNING. SO
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY OUT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON. AREAS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION WILL
SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY, SO EITHER PARTLY OR MOSTLY
CLOUDY UP THERE BY AFTERNOON. THOSE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL WORK
THEIR WAY SOUTH THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. NOT SEEING ANY BIG CHANGES IN THE MODELS.
THEY HAVE SCALED BACK ON THE RIDGING FOR THIS WEEKEND AND DELAYED IT
SLIGHTLY BUT A WARMUP STILL LOOKS GOOD, ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE TROF AXIS AND A DYING FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS EVERYWHERE AND
ITS BEST JUST TO SAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MARINE LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE AS THE LIFT FORM THE FRONT/TROF RIPPLES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE NORTH SLOPES WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER AS WELL. SOME 15 TO 25 GUST 35 MPH WINDS WILL ALSO FILTER
THROUGH THE MTNS AND MAYBE THROUGH A FEW CANYONS NORTH OF KSBA.

THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING FRIDAY AND
BY AFTERNOON SKIES SHOULD BE AT WORST PARTLY CLOUDY. HGTS GO UP SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH A LITTLE EXTRA SUNSHINE WILL SEE SOME
WARMING.

MDLS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARINE LAYER ON SATURDAY MORNING
SO TRIMMED IT BACK TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTHERN L.A. COUNTY AS
WITH ALL MARINE LAYER FCSTS CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR RISING HGTS AND DECREASING ONSHORE FLOW SO EXPECT A NICE BUMP UP
IN TEMPS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
EC AND GFS AGREE THAT THE XTND SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A
BUILDING RIDGE THAT WILL PEAK ON MONDAY AND THE DIMINISH TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. THE RATHER LARGE AND COOL UPPER
LOW THEN SETTLES INTO OREGON ON WEDNESDAY AND BRINGS BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW TO THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH HGTS FALLING TO 573 DM OVER LAX.

MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
HGTS AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT ANY BIG AMOUNT OF STRATUS
FORMATION. IN FACT OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY MONDAY WITH NO MARINE
LAYER STRATUS. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY SUN AND MON AND MONDAY
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGIT VLY READINGS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THE HGTS FALL AND THE ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS IS QUESTIONABLE THE DAY
AFTER THE OFFSHORE EVENT. BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS INTO THE LIKELY PLACES
BUT THE EXACT COVERAGE PATTERN COULD WELL BE DIFFERENT.

HARD TO IMAGINE A SCENARIO WHERE THERE IS NOT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY WITH THE BIG UPPER LOW. MAX TEMPS WILL TAKE A
NOSE DIVE AS WELL WITH THE LOWER HGTS AND DEEPER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1800Z...
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH THAT
DEEPENED THE MARINE LAYER OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
DISRUPT MARINE LAYER FORMATION TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HELP TO PRODUCE MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE
COAST AND VALLEY SITES. THE SANTA BARBARA COASTLINE AND LOCATIONS
FARTHER INLAND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR....HOWEVER THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT KSBA OVERNIGHT.  STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE AREAS OF BLDU. CONSIDERABLE SMOKE
FROM GRAND FIRE WILL BE IMPACTING INTERSTATE 5 AREA OF THE MOUNTAINS.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 20Z-04Z TODAY.
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 20Z-04Z TODAY.
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 161635
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASED STRATUS. SOME DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...A TROF MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA HAS DEEPENED THE MARINE LYR TO 3000 FEET THIS MORNING. SO
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY OUT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON. AREAS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION WILL
SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY, SO EITHER PARTLY OR MOSTLY
CLOUDY UP THERE BY AFTERNOON. THOSE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL WORK
THEIR WAY SOUTH THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. NOT SEEING ANY BIG CHANGES IN THE MODELS.
THEY HAVE SCALED BACK ON THE RIDGING FOR THIS WEEKEND AND DELAYED IT
SLIGHTLY BUT A WARMUP STILL LOOKS GOOD, ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE TROF AXIS AND A DYING FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS EVERYWHERE AND
ITS BEST JUST TO SAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MARINE LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE AS THE LIFT FORM THE FRONT/TROF RIPPLES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE NORTH SLOPES WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER AS WELL. SOME 15 TO 25 GUST 35 MPH WINDS WILL ALSO FILTER
THROUGH THE MTNS AND MAYBE THROUGH A FEW CANYONS NORTH OF KSBA.

THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING FRIDAY AND
BY AFTERNOON SKIES SHOULD BE AT WORST PARTLY CLOUDY. HGTS GO UP SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH A LITTLE EXTRA SUNSHINE WILL SEE SOME
WARMING.

MDLS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARINE LAYER ON SATURDAY MORNING
SO TRIMMED IT BACK TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTHERN L.A. COUNTY AS
WITH ALL MARINE LAYER FCSTS CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR RISING HGTS AND DECREASING ONSHORE FLOW SO EXPECT A NICE BUMP UP
IN TEMPS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
EC AND GFS AGREE THAT THE XTND SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A
BUILDING RIDGE THAT WILL PEAK ON MONDAY AND THE DIMINISH TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. THE RATHER LARGE AND COOL UPPER
LOW THEN SETTLES INTO OREGON ON WEDNESDAY AND BRINGS BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW TO THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH HGTS FALLING TO 573 DM OVER LAX.

MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
HGTS AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT ANY BIG AMOUNT OF STRATUS
FORMATION. IN FACT OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY MONDAY WITH NO MARINE
LAYER STRATUS. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY SUN AND MON AND MONDAY
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGIT VLY READINGS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THE HGTS FALL AND THE ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS IS QUESTIONABLE THE DAY
AFTER THE OFFSHORE EVENT. BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS INTO THE LIKELY PLACES
BUT THE EXACT COVERAGE PATTERN COULD WELL BE DIFFERENT.

HARD TO IMAGINE A SCENARIO WHERE THERE IS NOT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY WITH THE BIG UPPER LOW. MAX TEMPS WILL TAKE A
NOSE DIVE AS WELL WITH THE LOWER HGTS AND DEEPER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...16/12Z...

THE MARINE LAYER HAS INFILTRATED THE COASTLINE MORE READILY ALONG
LOS ANGELES COUNTY THAN ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THOUGH MOST COASTAL
AND ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT CIG 008-015
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN BKN-OVC.  VSBY IN SOME LOCATIONS HAS DROPPED TO
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF DROPS TO IFR.  CIGS AND LOWERED VSBY
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK THOUGH SOME AREAS SUCH AS NEAR THE
KLAX AND KLGB SITES WILL NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY... AND CIGS AND
LOWERED VSBY WILL REFORM AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE SANTA BARBARA COASTLINE AND LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND REMAIN VFR.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT KPMD AND KWJF THROUGH PERIOD. ALSO CONSIDERABLE SMOKE FROM GRAND
FIRE WILL BE IMPACTING INTERSTATE 5 AREA OF THE MOUNTAINS.

KLAX...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS DISSIPATING AFTER
DAYBREAK THOUGH THE LOW CLOUD DECK IS NOT EXPECTED TO FULLY CLEAR
PRIOR TO REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH 18Z
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL DIP TO IFR PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK BUT MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER DAYBREAK.  VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THEN A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT AFTER 07Z.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 161209
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASED STRATUS. SOME DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
A TROF AND AN EDDY HAVE WORKED IN TANDEM TO LIFT THE MARINE LAYER UP
TO 2400 FEET AND PROBABLY TO 3000 FEET AFTER SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS
WERE SLOW TO FORM BUT NOW ARE WELL ON THEIR WAY TO FILLING THE
COASTS AND VLYS SAVE FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST WHERE NORTH FLOW SHOULD
SHUNT THE CLOUDS AWAY. CLOUDS FROM A WEAK FRONT WILL CREATE AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER SLO AND SBA COUNTIES. GOOD ONSHORE FLOW
WILL DELAY MARINE LAYER STRATUS CLEARING BY A FEW HOURS. IN FACT...A
FEW BEACHES IN VTA COUNTY MAY NOT SEE THE SUN UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. A
DEEP MARINE LAYER EQUALS COOLER TEMPS AND MOST TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN
A DEGREE OR TWO FROM YDY AND ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BLO NORMAL ACROSS
THE COASTS AND VLYS BUT JUST A DEGREE OR TWO BLO NORMAL MTNS AND
DESERTS. A 8 MB ONSHORE PUSH TO KDAG WILL ALLOW LOW END ADVISORY
GUSTS (45 MPH) TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ANTELOPE
VLY AND A WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT THERE AT 200 PM.

THE TROF AXIS AND A DYING FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS EVERYWHERE AND
ITS BEST JUST TO SAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MARINE LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE AS THE LIFT FORM THE FRONT/TROF RIPPLES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE NORTH SLOPES WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER AS WELL. SOME 15 TO 25 GUST 35 MPH WINDS WILL ALSO FILTER
THROUGH THE MTNS AND MAYBE THROUGH A FEW CANYONS NORTH OF KSBA.

THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING FRIDAY AND
BY AFTERNOON SKIES SHOULD BE AT WORST PARTLY CLOUDY. HGTS GO UP SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH A LITTLE EXTRA SUNSHINE WILL SEE SOME
WARMING.

MDLS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARINE LAYER ON SATURDAY MORNING
SO TRIMMED IT BACK TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTHERN L.A. COUNTY AS
WITH ALL MARINE LAYER FCSTS CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR RISING HGTS AND DECREASING ONSHORE FLOW SO EXPECT A NICE BUMP UP
IN TEMPS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
EC AND GFS AGREE THAT THE XTND SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A
BUILDING RIDGE THAT WILL PEAK ON MONDAY AND THE DIMINISH TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. THE RATHER LARGE AND COOL UPPER
LOW THEN SETTLES INTO OREGON ON WEDNESDAY AND BRINGS BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW TO THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH HGTS FALLING TO 573 DM OVER LAX.

MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
HGTS AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT ANY BIG AMOUNT OF STRATUS
FORMATION. IN FACT OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY MONDAY WITH NO MARINE
LAYER STRATUS. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY SUN AND MON AND MONDAY
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGIT VLY READINGS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THE HGTS FALL AND THE ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS IS QUESTIONABLE THE DAY
AFTER THE OFFSHORE EVENT. BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS INTO THE LIKELY PLACES
BUT THE EXACT COVERAGE PATTERN COULD WELL BE DIFFERENT.

HARD TO IMAGINE A SCENARIO WHERE THERE IS NOT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY WITH THE BIG UPPER LOW. MAX TEMPS WILL TAKE A
NOSE DIVE AS WELL WITH THE LOWER HGTS AND DEEPER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...16/12Z...

THE MARINE LAYER HAS INFILTRATED THE COASTLINE MORE READILY ALONG
LOS ANGELES COUNTY THAN ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THOUGH MOST COASTAL
AND ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT CIG 008-015
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN BKN-OVC.  VSBY IN SOME LOCATIONS HAS DROPPED TO
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF DROPS TO IFR.  CIGS AND LOWERED VSBY
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK THOUGH SOME AREAS SUCH AS NEAR THE
KLAX AND KLGB SITES WILL NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY... AND CIGS AND
LOWERED VSBY WILL REFORM AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE SANTA BARBARA COASTLINE AND LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND REMAIN VFR.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT KPMD AND KWJF THROUGH PERIOD. ALSO CONSIDERABLE SMOKE FROM GRAND
FIRE WILL BE IMPACTING INTERSTATE 5 AREA OF THE MOUNTAINS.

KLAX...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS DISSIPATING AFTER
DAYBREAK THOUGH THE LOW CLOUD DECK IS NOT EXPECTED TO FULLY CLEAR
PRIOR TO REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH 18Z
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL DIP TO IFR PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK BUT MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER DAYBREAK.  VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THEN A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT AFTER 07Z.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 161047
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASED STRATUS. SOME DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
A TROF AND AN EDDY HAVE WORKED IN TANDEM TO LIFT THE MARINE LAYER UP
TO 2400 FEET AND PROBABLY TO 3000 FEET AFTER SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS
WERE SLOW TO FORM BUT NOW ARE WELL ON THEIR WAY TO FILLING THE
COASTS AND VLYS SAVE FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST WHERE NORTH FLOW SHOULD
SHUNT THE CLOUDS AWAY. CLOUDS FROM A WEAK FRONT WILL CREATE AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER SLO AND SBA COUNTIES. GOOD ONSHORE FLOW
WILL DELAY MARINE LAYER STRATUS CLEARING BY A FEW HOURS. IN FACT...A
FEW BEACHES IN VTA COUNTY MAY NOT SEE THE SUN UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. A
DEEP MARINE LAYER EQUALS COOLER TEMPS AND MOST TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN
A DEGREE OR TWO FROM YDY AND ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BLO NORMAL ACROSS
THE COASTS AND VLYS BUT JUST A DEGREE OR TWO BLO NORMAL MTNS AND
DESERTS. A 8 MB ONSHORE PUSH TO KDAG WILL ALLOW LOW END ADVISORY
GUSTS (45 MPH) TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ANTELOPE
VLY AND A WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT THERE AT 200 PM.

THE TROF AXIS AND A DYING FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS EVERYWHERE AND
ITS BEST JUST TO SAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MARINE LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE AS THE LIFT FORM THE FRONT/TROF RIPPLES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE NORTH SLOPES WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER AS WELL. SOME 15 TO 25 GUST 35 MPH WINDS WILL ALSO FILTER
THROUGH THE MTNS AND MAYBE THROUGH A FEW CANYONS NORTH OF KSBA.

THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING FRIDAY AND
BY AFTERNOON SKIES SHOULD BE AT WORST PARTLY CLOUDY. HGTS GO UP SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH A LITTLE EXTRA SUNSHINE WILL SEE SOME
WARMING.

MDLS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARINE LAYER ON SATURDAY MORNING
SO TRIMMED IT BACK TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTHERN L.A. COUNTY AS
WITH ALL MARINE LAYER FCSTS CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR RISING HGTS AND DECREASING ONSHORE FLOW SO EXPECT A NICE BUMP UP
IN TEMPS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
EC AND GFS AGREE THAT THE XTND SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A
BUILDING RIDGE THAT WILL PEAK ON MONDAY AND THE DIMINISH TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. THE RATHER LARGE AND COOL UPPER
LOW THEN SETTLES INTO OREGON ON WEDNESDAY AND BRINGS BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW TO THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH HGTS FALLING TO 573 DM OVER LAX.

MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
HGTS AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT ANY BIG AMOUNT OF STRATUS
FORMATION. IN FACT OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY MONDAY WITH NO MARINE
LAYER STRATUS. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY SUN AND MON AND MONDAY
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGIT VLY READINGS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THE HGTS FALL AND THE ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS IS QUESTIONABLE THE DAY
AFTER THE OFFSHORE EVENT. BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS INTO THE LIKELY PLACES
BUT THE EXACT COVERAGE PATTERN COULD WELL BE DIFFERENT.

HARD TO IMAGINE A SCENARIO WHERE THERE IS NOT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY WITH THE BIG UPPER LOW. MAX TEMPS WILL TAKE A
NOSE DIVE AS WELL WITH THE LOWER HGTS AND DEEPER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...

16/0600Z

ANOTHER NIGHT IN WHICH THE MARINE LAYER WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
COAST AS THE EDDY CIRCULATION PULLS THE MARINE LAYER UP THE SOUTHERN
COASTLINE... LEAVING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST MOSTLY CLEAR.  THE
CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE DEVELOPED TONIGHT ALONG THE LOS ANGELES
COAST THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY AND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SOONER AT MOST LOCATIONS... HOWEVER THE ARRIVAL OF BKN HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.  MOST LIKELY RESULT WILL BE A
PATCHWORK OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND IN ADJACENT
VALLEYS.  VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT KPMD AND KWJF THROUGH PERIOD. ALSO CONSIDERABLE SMOKE FROM GRAND
FIRE WILL BE IMPACTING INTERSTATE 5 AREA OF THE MOUNTAINS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND
STICKING ONCE IT ARRIVES.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE TOUCH AND GO
MVFR AS THE MARINE LAYER SLOSHES AND THE HIGH CLOUD COVER THICKENS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FULLY CLEAR PRIOR
TO REDEVELOPMENT AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT.  LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KT.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. MOST LIKELY WILL BE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW CLOUDS
SHORTLY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THOUGH IF THE ONSHORE FLOW BUILDS IT COULD
ARRIVE BY 11Z.  VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 160553
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1035 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.  SOME
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUED TO BRING COOLING TREND TO
THE DISTRICT TODAY...WITH MOST VALLEY AREAS REMAINING IN THE 70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS BRINGING LOWERING HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS OFF
THE COAST OF PALOS VERDES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO COASTAL SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR AN EDDY CIRCULATION
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WELL INTO THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SANTA
BARBARA BY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS PATTERN WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. MEANWHILE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR FOR THE NEXT
36 HOURS. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH WILL
BE LIKELY ACROSS THE GRAND FIRE BURN AREA. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE AN
INFLUX OF COOLER AIR ALONG WITH RISING HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...THERE
IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH FACING SLOPES (INCLUDING
THE GRAND FIRE BURN AREA) BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE CROSS
SECTION SHOWING INCREASED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SBA/SLO
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY...AND HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVERAGE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR THOSE AREAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE INCREASED LIFT OF THE MARINE
LAYER FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.


BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST AND MARINE
LAYER STRATUS SHOULD BE A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD ALONG WITH WARMING/DRYING
TREND.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE FROM THE WEST SUNDAY/MONDAY...PEAKING IN
STRENGTH ON MONDAY...THEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS
A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE
ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND ACTUALLY GOES WEAKLY
OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...THEN THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AGAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE NOTED FOR A NICE WARMING
TREND AND DECREASING MARINE LAYER STRATUS. AT THIS POINT...MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST EASILY
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON HOW THE GRADIENTS
DEVELOP...COULD EVEN BE A BIT WARMER (LOW 100S IN SOME SPOTS) IF
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES...EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS AND A MORE ROBUST MARINE LAYER
STRATUS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...16/06Z

ANOTHER NIGHT IN WHICH THE MARINE LAYER WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
COAST AS THE EDDY CIRCULATION PULLS THE MARINE LAYER UP THE SOUTHERN
COASTLINE... LEAVING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST MOSTLY CLEAR.  THE
CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE DEVELOPED TONIGHT ALONG THE LOS ANGELES
COAST THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY AND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SOONER AT MOST LOCATIONS... HOWEVER THE ARRIVAL OF BKN HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.  MOST LIKELY RESULT WILL BE A
PATCHWORK OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND IN ADJACENT
VALLEYS.  VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT KPMD AND KWJF THROUGH PERIOD. ALSO CONSIDERABLE SMOKE FROM GRAND
FIRE WILL BE IMPACTING INTERSTATE 5 AREA OF THE MOUNTAINS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND
STICKING ONCE IT ARRIVES.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE TOUCH AND GO
MVFR AS THE MARINE LAYER SLOSHES AND THE HIGH CLOUD COVER THICKENS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FULLY CLEAR PRIOR
TO REDEVELOPMENT AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT.  LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KT.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. MOST LIKELY WILL BE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW CLOUDS
SHORTLY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THOUGH IF THE ONSHORE FLOW BUILDS IT COULD
ARRIVE BY 11Z.  VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/RAT
AVIATION...GOMBERG/KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 160320
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
820 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.  SOME
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUED TO BRING COOLING TREND TO
THE DISTRICT TODAY...WITH MOST VALLEY AREAS REMAINING IN THE 70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS BRINGING LOWERING HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS OFF
THE COAST OF PALOS VERDES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO COASTAL SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR AN EDDY CIRCULATION
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WELL INTO THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SANTA
BARBARA BY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS PATTERN WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. MEANWHILE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR FOR THE NEXT
36 HOURS. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH WILL
BE LIKELY ACROSS THE GRAND FIRE BURN AREA. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE AN
INFLUX OF COOLER AIR ALONG WITH RISING HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...THERE
IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH FACING SLOPES (INCLUDING
THE GRAND FIRE BURN AREA) BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE CROSS
SECTION SHOWING INCREASED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SBA/SLO
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY...AND HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVERAGE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR THOSE AREAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE INCREASED LIFT OF THE MARINE
LAYER FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.


BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST AND MARINE
LAYER STRATUS SHOULD BE A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD ALONG WITH WARMING/DRYING
TREND.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE FROM THE WEST SUNDAY/MONDAY...PEAKING IN
STRENGTH ON MONDAY...THEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS
A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE
ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND ACTUALLY GOES WEAKLY
OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...THEN THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AGAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE NOTED FOR A NICE WARMING
TREND AND DECREASING MARINE LAYER STRATUS. AT THIS POINT...MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST EASILY
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON HOW THE GRADIENTS
DEVELOP...COULD EVEN BE A BIT WARMER (LOW 100S IN SOME SPOTS) IF
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES...EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS AND A MORE ROBUST MARINE LAYER
STRATUS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0010Z
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY BURNED OFF ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS STILL LINGER
OFF THE COAST OF PALOS VERDES AND ORANGE COUNTY. AN EDDY CIRCULATION
IS EXPECTED TO SPIN UP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REDEVELOPING FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF THROUGH PERIOD. ALSO CONSIDERABLE SMOKE FROM
GRAND FIRE WILL BE IMPACTING INTERSTATE 5 AREA OF THE MOUNTAINS.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING AT KLAX
TONIGHT...+/- 2 HOURS OF 05Z. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/RAT
AVIATION...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 160022
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
510 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA. ALSO...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...WITH MONDAY LIKELY THE
WARMEST DAY. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE WEST COAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY THEN EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EACH EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST WIND PRONE SPOTS
(SANTA YNEZ RANGE...I-5 CORRIDOR...ETC.).

FORECAST-WISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. WITH THE
CONTINUED ONSHORE AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...EXPECT THE MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...ACTUALLY REACHING THE COASTAL SLOPES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WASHING OUT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DRIZZLE
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE FROM THE COASTAL SLOPES WESTWARD. ALSO...MODELS
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NORTH SLOPES SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...SO WILL BUMP UP POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THESE NORTH SLOPE AREAS. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL SHOULD NOT BE
MORE THAN A TRACE...OR MAYBE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST AND MARINE LAYER STRATUS
SHOULD BE A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD.

AS FOR WINDS...THE CONTINUED ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE SOME
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. IN FACT...BASED ON MOS NUMBERS...EXPECT WINDS
TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY. SO...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADVISORY-LEVEL
GUSTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF EVENINGS...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE GUSTS
TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ADVISORIES.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SOME RECOVERY ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE FROM THE WEST SUNDAY/MONDAY...PEAKING IN
STRENGTH ON MONDAY...THEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS
A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE
ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND ACTUALLY GOES WEAKLY
OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...THEN THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AGAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE NOTED FOR A NICE WARMING
TREND AND DECREASING MARINE LAYER STRATUS. AT THIS POINT...MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST EASILY
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON HOW THE GRADIENTS
DEVELOP...COULD EVEN BE A BIT WARMER (LOW 100S IN SOME SPOTS) IF
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES...EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS AND A MORE ROBUST MARINE LAYER
STRATUS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0010Z
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY BURNED OFF ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS STILL LINGER
OFF THE COAST OF PALOS VERDES AND ORANGE COUNTY. AN EDDY CIRCULATION
IS EXPECTED TO SPIN UP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REDEVELOPING FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF THROUGH PERIOD. ALSO CONSIDERABLE SMOKE FROM
GRAND FIRE WILL BE IMPACTING INTERSTATE 5 AREA OF THE MOUNTAINS.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING AT KLAX
TONIGHT...+/- 2 HOURS OF 05Z. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 152057
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA. ALSO...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...WITH MONDAY LIKELY THE
WARMEST DAY. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE WEST COAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY THEN EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EACH EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST WIND PRONE SPOTS
(SANTA YNEZ RANGE...I-5 CORRIDOR...ETC.).

FORECAST-WISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. WITH THE
CONTINUED ONSHORE AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...EXPECT THE MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...ACTUALLY REACHING THE COASTAL SLOPES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WASHING OUT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DRIZZLE
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE FROM THE COASTAL SLOPES WESTWARD. ALSO...MODELS
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NORTH SLOPES SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...SO WILL BUMP UP POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THESE NORTH SLOPE AREAS. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL SHOULD NOT BE
MORE THAN A TRACE...OR MAYBE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST AND MARINE LAYER STRATUS
SHOULD BE A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD.

AS FOR WINDS...THE CONTINUED ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE SOME
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. IN FACT...BASED ON MOS NUMBERS...EXPECT WINDS
TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY. SO...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADVISORY-LEVEL
GUSTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF EVENINGS...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE GUSTS
TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ADVISORIES.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SOME RECOVERY ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE FROM THE WEST SUNDAY/MONDAY...PEAKING IN
STRENGTH ON MONDAY...THEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS
A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE
ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND ACTUALLY GOES WEAKLY
OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...THEN THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AGAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE NOTED FOR A NICE WARMING
TREND AND DECREASING MARINE LAYER STRATUS. AT THIS POINT...MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST EASILY
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON HOW THE GRADIENTS
DEVELOP...COULD EVEN BE A BIT WARMER (LOW 100S IN SOME SPOTS) IF
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES...EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS AND A MORE ROBUST MARINE LAYER
STRATUS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...15/18Z

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE IS LOW TO MODERATE. THERE
IS A 20% CHANCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE MARINE LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR SITES NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AND THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE COASTAL SITES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING KPRB LATE TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
AND MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...SS
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES