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000
FXUS66 KLOX 010502
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
902 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM OFFSHORE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
CONTINUES TO EXIT REGION THIS EVENING...WHILE AN UPSTREAM RIDGE
BUILDS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. DIRTY RIDGING ALOFT WILL
ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE IS FADING SOMEWHAT IN THE STRATUS FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...BUT IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WITH A THIN
MARINE INVERSION REMAINING IN PLACE AT KLAX NEAR 500 FEET THIS
EVENING...ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BE DENSE. PATCHY
DENSE FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE PACKAGE. ACCOUNTING FOR THE
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN...TEMPERATURES IN THE PACKAGE WERE WARMED
SLIGHTLY IN THE FOOTHILLS FOR TONIGHT AND COOLED FOR THE DESERT
LOCATIONS. PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO NEAR 32 DEGREES. WITH SEVERAL
FREEZES OCCURRING EARLIER THIS SEASON...NO ADDITIONAL FROST OR
FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND A EDDY DEVELOPS WHICH
SHOULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE LA COUNTY
COAST AND MOVE NORTH INTO OXNARD BY EARLY MONDAY.

EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS
AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH MORE OF A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
IN PLACE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE LA/VTU COAST AS WELL AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE ON TUE EXCEPT FOR A
DEGREE OF WARMING LIKELY FOR COASTAL AND VALLEYS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG PERIOD. THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS IT DID WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS BUT WILL HANG IN THERE
THROUGH MID WEEK. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WED/THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION FRIDAY AND PART OF SATURDAY. IT IS STILL EARLY AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED BY THE EARLIER MID SHIFT.
OVERALL IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PLEASANT WEAK OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0014Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 15 DEGREES C.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY VALLEY TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE THROUGH 08Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE
THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 PM...
WEAK OFFSHORE TRENDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE OUTER
WATERS WITH WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 20
KNOTS. STRONGER GUSTS MAY AFFECT PZZ670 TUESDAY EVENING. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THE THRESHOLD FOR SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/KAPLAN
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 010502
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
902 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM OFFSHORE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
CONTINUES TO EXIT REGION THIS EVENING...WHILE AN UPSTREAM RIDGE
BUILDS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. DIRTY RIDGING ALOFT WILL
ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE IS FADING SOMEWHAT IN THE STRATUS FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...BUT IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WITH A THIN
MARINE INVERSION REMAINING IN PLACE AT KLAX NEAR 500 FEET THIS
EVENING...ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BE DENSE. PATCHY
DENSE FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE PACKAGE. ACCOUNTING FOR THE
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN...TEMPERATURES IN THE PACKAGE WERE WARMED
SLIGHTLY IN THE FOOTHILLS FOR TONIGHT AND COOLED FOR THE DESERT
LOCATIONS. PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO NEAR 32 DEGREES. WITH SEVERAL
FREEZES OCCURRING EARLIER THIS SEASON...NO ADDITIONAL FROST OR
FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND A EDDY DEVELOPS WHICH
SHOULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE LA COUNTY
COAST AND MOVE NORTH INTO OXNARD BY EARLY MONDAY.

EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS
AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH MORE OF A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
IN PLACE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE LA/VTU COAST AS WELL AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE ON TUE EXCEPT FOR A
DEGREE OF WARMING LIKELY FOR COASTAL AND VALLEYS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG PERIOD. THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS IT DID WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS BUT WILL HANG IN THERE
THROUGH MID WEEK. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WED/THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION FRIDAY AND PART OF SATURDAY. IT IS STILL EARLY AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED BY THE EARLIER MID SHIFT.
OVERALL IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PLEASANT WEAK OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0014Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 15 DEGREES C.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY VALLEY TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE THROUGH 08Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE
THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 PM...
WEAK OFFSHORE TRENDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE OUTER
WATERS WITH WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 20
KNOTS. STRONGER GUSTS MAY AFFECT PZZ670 TUESDAY EVENING. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THE THRESHOLD FOR SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/KAPLAN
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 010502
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
902 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM OFFSHORE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
CONTINUES TO EXIT REGION THIS EVENING...WHILE AN UPSTREAM RIDGE
BUILDS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. DIRTY RIDGING ALOFT WILL
ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE IS FADING SOMEWHAT IN THE STRATUS FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...BUT IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WITH A THIN
MARINE INVERSION REMAINING IN PLACE AT KLAX NEAR 500 FEET THIS
EVENING...ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BE DENSE. PATCHY
DENSE FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE PACKAGE. ACCOUNTING FOR THE
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN...TEMPERATURES IN THE PACKAGE WERE WARMED
SLIGHTLY IN THE FOOTHILLS FOR TONIGHT AND COOLED FOR THE DESERT
LOCATIONS. PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO NEAR 32 DEGREES. WITH SEVERAL
FREEZES OCCURRING EARLIER THIS SEASON...NO ADDITIONAL FROST OR
FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND A EDDY DEVELOPS WHICH
SHOULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE LA COUNTY
COAST AND MOVE NORTH INTO OXNARD BY EARLY MONDAY.

EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS
AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH MORE OF A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
IN PLACE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE LA/VTU COAST AS WELL AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE ON TUE EXCEPT FOR A
DEGREE OF WARMING LIKELY FOR COASTAL AND VALLEYS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG PERIOD. THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS IT DID WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS BUT WILL HANG IN THERE
THROUGH MID WEEK. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WED/THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION FRIDAY AND PART OF SATURDAY. IT IS STILL EARLY AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED BY THE EARLIER MID SHIFT.
OVERALL IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PLEASANT WEAK OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0014Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 15 DEGREES C.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY VALLEY TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE THROUGH 08Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE
THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 PM...
WEAK OFFSHORE TRENDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE OUTER
WATERS WITH WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 20
KNOTS. STRONGER GUSTS MAY AFFECT PZZ670 TUESDAY EVENING. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THE THRESHOLD FOR SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/KAPLAN
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 010502
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
902 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM OFFSHORE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
CONTINUES TO EXIT REGION THIS EVENING...WHILE AN UPSTREAM RIDGE
BUILDS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. DIRTY RIDGING ALOFT WILL
ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE IS FADING SOMEWHAT IN THE STRATUS FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...BUT IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WITH A THIN
MARINE INVERSION REMAINING IN PLACE AT KLAX NEAR 500 FEET THIS
EVENING...ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BE DENSE. PATCHY
DENSE FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE PACKAGE. ACCOUNTING FOR THE
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN...TEMPERATURES IN THE PACKAGE WERE WARMED
SLIGHTLY IN THE FOOTHILLS FOR TONIGHT AND COOLED FOR THE DESERT
LOCATIONS. PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO NEAR 32 DEGREES. WITH SEVERAL
FREEZES OCCURRING EARLIER THIS SEASON...NO ADDITIONAL FROST OR
FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND A EDDY DEVELOPS WHICH
SHOULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE LA COUNTY
COAST AND MOVE NORTH INTO OXNARD BY EARLY MONDAY.

EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS
AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH MORE OF A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
IN PLACE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE LA/VTU COAST AS WELL AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE ON TUE EXCEPT FOR A
DEGREE OF WARMING LIKELY FOR COASTAL AND VALLEYS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG PERIOD. THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS IT DID WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS BUT WILL HANG IN THERE
THROUGH MID WEEK. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WED/THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION FRIDAY AND PART OF SATURDAY. IT IS STILL EARLY AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED BY THE EARLIER MID SHIFT.
OVERALL IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PLEASANT WEAK OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0014Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 15 DEGREES C.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY VALLEY TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE THROUGH 08Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE
THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 PM...
WEAK OFFSHORE TRENDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE OUTER
WATERS WITH WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 20
KNOTS. STRONGER GUSTS MAY AFFECT PZZ670 TUESDAY EVENING. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THE THRESHOLD FOR SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/KAPLAN
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 010014
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
414 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...IT HAS BEEN A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME
STRATCU LINGERING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY
AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR
SECTIONS. AS THE AFTERNOON GOES BY...EXPECT MORE CLEARING OVER L.A.
COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THE WHOLE HAVE BEEN TRENDING UP
A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY AND OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30S. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PUSH INTO
THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
OXNARD COASTAL BASIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER LA COUNTY
YESTERDAY HAVE MOVED FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
TAPER OFF BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION AROUND THE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING IN LATER TONIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MEXICO AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES SOME FROM THE WEST OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS VENTURA AND SLO
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING OFF THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST AND MOVING NORTH TOWARDS LONG
BEACH. HAVE ADDED LOW CLOUDS FOR THE SOUTHERN LA COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL UP TO LAX TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS AND A EDDY DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST AND MOVE NORTH INTO OXNARD BY
EARLY MONDAY.

EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS
AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH MORE OF A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
IN PLACE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE LA/VTU COAST AS WELL AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE ON TUE EXCEPT FOR A
DEGREE OF WARMING LIKELY FOR COASTAL AND VALLEYS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG PERIOD. THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS IT DID WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS BUT WILL HANG IN THERE
THROUGH MID WEEK. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WED/THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION
FRIDAY AND PART OF SATURDAY. IT IS STILL EARLY AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED BY THE EARLIER MID SHIFT. OVERALL IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A PLEASANT WEAK OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0014Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 15 DEGREES C.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY VALLEY TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE THROUGH 08Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE
THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA
ORIENTED BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE
FETCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 010014
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
414 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...IT HAS BEEN A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME
STRATCU LINGERING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY
AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR
SECTIONS. AS THE AFTERNOON GOES BY...EXPECT MORE CLEARING OVER L.A.
COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THE WHOLE HAVE BEEN TRENDING UP
A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY AND OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30S. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PUSH INTO
THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
OXNARD COASTAL BASIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER LA COUNTY
YESTERDAY HAVE MOVED FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
TAPER OFF BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION AROUND THE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING IN LATER TONIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MEXICO AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES SOME FROM THE WEST OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS VENTURA AND SLO
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING OFF THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST AND MOVING NORTH TOWARDS LONG
BEACH. HAVE ADDED LOW CLOUDS FOR THE SOUTHERN LA COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL UP TO LAX TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS AND A EDDY DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST AND MOVE NORTH INTO OXNARD BY
EARLY MONDAY.

EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS
AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH MORE OF A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
IN PLACE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE LA/VTU COAST AS WELL AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE ON TUE EXCEPT FOR A
DEGREE OF WARMING LIKELY FOR COASTAL AND VALLEYS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG PERIOD. THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS IT DID WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS BUT WILL HANG IN THERE
THROUGH MID WEEK. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WED/THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION
FRIDAY AND PART OF SATURDAY. IT IS STILL EARLY AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED BY THE EARLIER MID SHIFT. OVERALL IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A PLEASANT WEAK OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0014Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 15 DEGREES C.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY VALLEY TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE THROUGH 08Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE
THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA
ORIENTED BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE
FETCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 010014
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
414 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...IT HAS BEEN A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME
STRATCU LINGERING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY
AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR
SECTIONS. AS THE AFTERNOON GOES BY...EXPECT MORE CLEARING OVER L.A.
COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THE WHOLE HAVE BEEN TRENDING UP
A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY AND OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30S. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PUSH INTO
THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
OXNARD COASTAL BASIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER LA COUNTY
YESTERDAY HAVE MOVED FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
TAPER OFF BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION AROUND THE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING IN LATER TONIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MEXICO AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES SOME FROM THE WEST OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS VENTURA AND SLO
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING OFF THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST AND MOVING NORTH TOWARDS LONG
BEACH. HAVE ADDED LOW CLOUDS FOR THE SOUTHERN LA COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL UP TO LAX TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS AND A EDDY DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST AND MOVE NORTH INTO OXNARD BY
EARLY MONDAY.

EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS
AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH MORE OF A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
IN PLACE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE LA/VTU COAST AS WELL AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE ON TUE EXCEPT FOR A
DEGREE OF WARMING LIKELY FOR COASTAL AND VALLEYS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG PERIOD. THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS IT DID WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS BUT WILL HANG IN THERE
THROUGH MID WEEK. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WED/THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION
FRIDAY AND PART OF SATURDAY. IT IS STILL EARLY AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED BY THE EARLIER MID SHIFT. OVERALL IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A PLEASANT WEAK OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0014Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 15 DEGREES C.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY VALLEY TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE THROUGH 08Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE
THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA
ORIENTED BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE
FETCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 010014
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
414 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...IT HAS BEEN A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME
STRATCU LINGERING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY
AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR
SECTIONS. AS THE AFTERNOON GOES BY...EXPECT MORE CLEARING OVER L.A.
COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THE WHOLE HAVE BEEN TRENDING UP
A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY AND OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30S. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PUSH INTO
THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
OXNARD COASTAL BASIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER LA COUNTY
YESTERDAY HAVE MOVED FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
TAPER OFF BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION AROUND THE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING IN LATER TONIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MEXICO AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES SOME FROM THE WEST OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS VENTURA AND SLO
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING OFF THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST AND MOVING NORTH TOWARDS LONG
BEACH. HAVE ADDED LOW CLOUDS FOR THE SOUTHERN LA COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL UP TO LAX TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS AND A EDDY DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST AND MOVE NORTH INTO OXNARD BY
EARLY MONDAY.

EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS
AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH MORE OF A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
IN PLACE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE LA/VTU COAST AS WELL AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE ON TUE EXCEPT FOR A
DEGREE OF WARMING LIKELY FOR COASTAL AND VALLEYS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG PERIOD. THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS IT DID WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS BUT WILL HANG IN THERE
THROUGH MID WEEK. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WED/THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION
FRIDAY AND PART OF SATURDAY. IT IS STILL EARLY AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED BY THE EARLIER MID SHIFT. OVERALL IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A PLEASANT WEAK OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0014Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 15 DEGREES C.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY VALLEY TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE THROUGH 08Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE
THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA
ORIENTED BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE
FETCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 312225
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...IT HAS BEEN A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME
STRATCU LINGERING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY
AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR
SECTIONS. AS THE AFTERNOON GOES BY...EXPECT MORE CLEARING OVER L.A.
COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THE WHOLE HAVE BEEN TRENDING UP
A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY AND OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30S. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PUSH INTO
THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
OXNARD COASTAL BASIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER LA COUNTY
YESTERDAY HAVE MOVED FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
TAPER OFF BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION AROUND THE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING IN LATER TONIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MEXICO AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES SOME FROM THE WEST OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS VENTURA AND SLO
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING OFF THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST AND MOVING NORTH TOWARDS LONG
BEACH. HAVE ADDED LOW CLOUDS FOR THE SOUTHERN LA COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL UP TO LAX TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS AND A EDDY DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST AND MOVE NORTH INTO OXNARD BY
EARLY MONDAY.

EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS
AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH MORE OF A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
IN PLACE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE LA/VTU COAST AS WELL AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE ON TUE EXCEPT FOR A
DEGREE OF WARMING LIKELY FOR COASTA AND VALLEYS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG PERIOD. THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS IT DID WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS BUT WILL HANG IN THERE
THROUGH MID WEEK. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WED/THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION
FRIDAY AND PART OF SATURDAY. IT IS STILL EARLY AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED BY THE EARLIER MID SHIFT. OVERALL IT WILL
CONITNUE TO BE A PLEASANT WEAK OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY
WAMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 01/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTH BY 01/11Z. FREEZING
LEVEL WAS AROUND 8KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 4KFT
SUNDAY MORNING. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH 01/03Z AND AFTER 01/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENT. LOW CLOUD TOPS WERE AROUND 3KFT THIS MORNING BENEATH A
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED CAPPING INVERSION THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION
WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 3KFT AND STRENGTHEN WITH DECREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 3102 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 4245 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 09 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 021 AT TIMES THROUGH 31/20Z OTHERWISE SCT 250 AT
TIMES.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH PERIOD...OTHERWISE
CHANCE SCT 025 THROUGH 01/03Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA
ORIENTED BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE
FETCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 312225
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...IT HAS BEEN A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME
STRATCU LINGERING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY
AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR
SECTIONS. AS THE AFTERNOON GOES BY...EXPECT MORE CLEARING OVER L.A.
COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THE WHOLE HAVE BEEN TRENDING UP
A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY AND OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30S. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PUSH INTO
THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
OXNARD COASTAL BASIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER LA COUNTY
YESTERDAY HAVE MOVED FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
TAPER OFF BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION AROUND THE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING IN LATER TONIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MEXICO AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES SOME FROM THE WEST OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS VENTURA AND SLO
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING OFF THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST AND MOVING NORTH TOWARDS LONG
BEACH. HAVE ADDED LOW CLOUDS FOR THE SOUTHERN LA COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL UP TO LAX TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS AND A EDDY DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST AND MOVE NORTH INTO OXNARD BY
EARLY MONDAY.

EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS
AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH MORE OF A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
IN PLACE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE LA/VTU COAST AS WELL AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE ON TUE EXCEPT FOR A
DEGREE OF WARMING LIKELY FOR COASTA AND VALLEYS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG PERIOD. THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS IT DID WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS BUT WILL HANG IN THERE
THROUGH MID WEEK. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WED/THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION
FRIDAY AND PART OF SATURDAY. IT IS STILL EARLY AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED BY THE EARLIER MID SHIFT. OVERALL IT WILL
CONITNUE TO BE A PLEASANT WEAK OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY
WAMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 01/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTH BY 01/11Z. FREEZING
LEVEL WAS AROUND 8KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 4KFT
SUNDAY MORNING. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH 01/03Z AND AFTER 01/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENT. LOW CLOUD TOPS WERE AROUND 3KFT THIS MORNING BENEATH A
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED CAPPING INVERSION THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION
WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 3KFT AND STRENGTHEN WITH DECREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 3102 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 4245 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 09 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 021 AT TIMES THROUGH 31/20Z OTHERWISE SCT 250 AT
TIMES.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH PERIOD...OTHERWISE
CHANCE SCT 025 THROUGH 01/03Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA
ORIENTED BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE
FETCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 312141
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...IT HAS BEEN A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME
STRATCU LINGERING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY
AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR
SECTIONS. AS THE AFTERNOON GOES BY...EXPECT MORE CLEARING OVER L.A.
COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THE WHOLE HAVE BEEN TRENDING UP
A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY AND OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30S. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PUSH INTO
THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
OXNARD COASTAL BASIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER LA COUNTY
YESTERDAY HAVE MOVED FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
TAPER OFF BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION AROUND THE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING IN LATER TONIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MEXICO AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES SOME FROM THE WEST OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS VENTURA AND SLO
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING OFF THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST AND MOVING NORTH TOWARDS LONG
BEACH. JUST NOT THAT CONFIDENT TO HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND A EDDY
DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE LA COUNTY COAST AND MOVE NORTH INTO OXNARD BY EARLY MONDAY.

EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS
AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH MORE OF A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
IN PLACE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE LA/VTU COAST AS WELL AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE ON TUE EXCEPT FOR A
DEGREE OF WARMING LIKELY FOR COASTA AND VALLEYS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG PERIOD. THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS IT DID WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS BUT WILL HANG IN THERE
THROUGH MID WEEK. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WED/THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION
FRIDAY AND PART OF SATURDAY. IT IS STILL EARLY AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED BY THE EARLIER MID SHIFT. OVERALL IT WILL
CONITNUE TO BE A PLEASANT WEAK OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY
WAMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 01/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTH BY 01/11Z. FREEZING
LEVEL WAS AROUND 8KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 4KFT
SUNDAY MORNING. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH 01/03Z AND AFTER 01/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENT. LOW CLOUD TOPS WERE AROUND 3KFT THIS MORNING BENEATH A
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED CAPPING INVERSION THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION
WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 3KFT AND STRENGTHEN WITH DECREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 3102 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 4245 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 09 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 021 AT TIMES THROUGH 31/20Z OTHERWISE SCT 250 AT
TIMES.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH PERIOD...OTHERWISE
CHANCE SCT 025 THROUGH 01/03Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA
ORIENTED BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE
FETCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 312141
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...IT HAS BEEN A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME
STRATCU LINGERING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY
AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR
SECTIONS. AS THE AFTERNOON GOES BY...EXPECT MORE CLEARING OVER L.A.
COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THE WHOLE HAVE BEEN TRENDING UP
A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY AND OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30S. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PUSH INTO
THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
OXNARD COASTAL BASIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER LA COUNTY
YESTERDAY HAVE MOVED FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
TAPER OFF BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION AROUND THE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING IN LATER TONIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MEXICO AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES SOME FROM THE WEST OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS VENTURA AND SLO
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING OFF THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST AND MOVING NORTH TOWARDS LONG
BEACH. JUST NOT THAT CONFIDENT TO HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND A EDDY
DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE LA COUNTY COAST AND MOVE NORTH INTO OXNARD BY EARLY MONDAY.

EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS
AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH MORE OF A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
IN PLACE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE LA/VTU COAST AS WELL AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE ON TUE EXCEPT FOR A
DEGREE OF WARMING LIKELY FOR COASTA AND VALLEYS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG PERIOD. THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS IT DID WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS BUT WILL HANG IN THERE
THROUGH MID WEEK. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WED/THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION
FRIDAY AND PART OF SATURDAY. IT IS STILL EARLY AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED BY THE EARLIER MID SHIFT. OVERALL IT WILL
CONITNUE TO BE A PLEASANT WEAK OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY
WAMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 01/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTH BY 01/11Z. FREEZING
LEVEL WAS AROUND 8KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 4KFT
SUNDAY MORNING. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH 01/03Z AND AFTER 01/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENT. LOW CLOUD TOPS WERE AROUND 3KFT THIS MORNING BENEATH A
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED CAPPING INVERSION THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION
WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 3KFT AND STRENGTHEN WITH DECREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 3102 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 4245 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 09 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 021 AT TIMES THROUGH 31/20Z OTHERWISE SCT 250 AT
TIMES.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH PERIOD...OTHERWISE
CHANCE SCT 025 THROUGH 01/03Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA
ORIENTED BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE
FETCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 312141
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...IT HAS BEEN A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME
STRATCU LINGERING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY
AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR
SECTIONS. AS THE AFTERNOON GOES BY...EXPECT MORE CLEARING OVER L.A.
COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THE WHOLE HAVE BEEN TRENDING UP
A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY AND OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30S. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PUSH INTO
THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
OXNARD COASTAL BASIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER LA COUNTY
YESTERDAY HAVE MOVED FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
TAPER OFF BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION AROUND THE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING IN LATER TONIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MEXICO AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES SOME FROM THE WEST OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS VENTURA AND SLO
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING OFF THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST AND MOVING NORTH TOWARDS LONG
BEACH. JUST NOT THAT CONFIDENT TO HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND A EDDY
DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE LA COUNTY COAST AND MOVE NORTH INTO OXNARD BY EARLY MONDAY.

EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS
AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH MORE OF A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
IN PLACE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE LA/VTU COAST AS WELL AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE ON TUE EXCEPT FOR A
DEGREE OF WARMING LIKELY FOR COASTA AND VALLEYS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG PERIOD. THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS IT DID WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS BUT WILL HANG IN THERE
THROUGH MID WEEK. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WED/THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION
FRIDAY AND PART OF SATURDAY. IT IS STILL EARLY AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED BY THE EARLIER MID SHIFT. OVERALL IT WILL
CONITNUE TO BE A PLEASANT WEAK OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY
WAMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 01/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTH BY 01/11Z. FREEZING
LEVEL WAS AROUND 8KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 4KFT
SUNDAY MORNING. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH 01/03Z AND AFTER 01/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENT. LOW CLOUD TOPS WERE AROUND 3KFT THIS MORNING BENEATH A
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED CAPPING INVERSION THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION
WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 3KFT AND STRENGTHEN WITH DECREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 3102 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 4245 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 09 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 021 AT TIMES THROUGH 31/20Z OTHERWISE SCT 250 AT
TIMES.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH PERIOD...OTHERWISE
CHANCE SCT 025 THROUGH 01/03Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA
ORIENTED BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE
FETCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 311758 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
957 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL OFFSHORE
WINDS. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY MINOR
VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...UPDATE...

THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NW MEXICO THIS
MORNING WITH A VORTLOBE LOCATED AROUND LAS VEGAS. THIS FEATURE WILL
WRAP COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE MAIN LOW CIRCULATION MOVING TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THAT
DIRECTION. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT VERY LIGHT. WITH
THIS NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE AREA...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS LA COUNTY TODAY...WITH LESS COVERAGE OVER
VENTURA...AND ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SBA COUNTY.

LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY DID INDICATE PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS SLO/SBA
INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH SOME DENSE FOG OCCURRING ACROSS THE SALINAS
RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING PASO ROBLES. THIS SHOULD SCOUR OUT WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR THE LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS...WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS AS THE MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE WAS AROUND 3000 FT DEEP THIS MORNING. RH VALUES
REMAINED QUITE HIGH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND
VALLEYS. BUT AS NE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...THEY SHOULD MIX DOWN AS THE INVERSION IS QUITE WEAK.
EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS TO SURFACE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING
OFFSHORE WINDS TO AFFECT MOST OF THE LA COUNTY BASIN TODAY...EXCEPT
NEAR MALIBU AND AREAS WEST. EXPECT MOSTLY HAZY CONDS WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY FOR THE LA BASIN. BEST WARMING TODAY SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL HELP TO
BRING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. OVERALL...TODAYS HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS COAST AND
VALLEYS.

OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***


WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN DESERTS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW ARE STILL BLANKETING LOS ANGELES COUNTY...BUT
SHOULD THIN OUT THROUGH THE THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL AS
INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES...AND EVEN SOME PATCHY STRATUS FOR THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COASTS. BY LATE THIS MORNING...ANY STRATUS
AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...SO CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ALL AREAS. ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER
STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORY ISSUES AS THERE SHOULD ONLY BE
LOCALIZED GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA. HOWEVER WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH RATHER WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 70S TEMPS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FLOW TURNS WEAKLY ONSHORE AND HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE BIGHT. SO...WILL EXPECT
SOME STRATUS/FOG TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF VENTURA/LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES AND EVEN SQUEEZE INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPS...COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE INFLUENCE WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL
BE PERSISTENT...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT A BIT ON TUESDAY...THEN AMPLIFIES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH INCHES SLOWLY EAST WITH A FRONT MOVING
INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WILL BE RATHER BENIGN. OVERALL
WILL ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH SOME NIGHT/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT ONLY VERY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
AND REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AS FOR RAINFALL
CHANCES...BY FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A MINOR
THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. NEITHER THE
GFS OR ECMWF ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPS...CHANGES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE MINOR WITH
THE BEST COOLING LIKELY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 01/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTH BY 01/11Z. FREEZING
LEVEL WAS AROUND 8KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 4KFT
SUNDAY MORNING. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH 01/03Z AND AFTER 01/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENT. LOW CLOUD TOPS WERE AROUND 3KFT THIS MORNING BENEATH A
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED CAPPING INVERSION THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION
WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 3KFT AND STRENGTHEN WITH DECREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 3102 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 4245 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 09 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 021 AT TIMES THROUGH 31/20Z OTHERWISE SCT 250 AT
TIMES.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH PERIOD...OTHERWISE
CHANCE SCT 025 THROUGH 01/03Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS
&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA
ORIENTED BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE
FETCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

















000
FXUS66 KLOX 311758 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
957 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL OFFSHORE
WINDS. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY MINOR
VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...UPDATE...

THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NW MEXICO THIS
MORNING WITH A VORTLOBE LOCATED AROUND LAS VEGAS. THIS FEATURE WILL
WRAP COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE MAIN LOW CIRCULATION MOVING TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THAT
DIRECTION. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT VERY LIGHT. WITH
THIS NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE AREA...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS LA COUNTY TODAY...WITH LESS COVERAGE OVER
VENTURA...AND ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SBA COUNTY.

LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY DID INDICATE PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS SLO/SBA
INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH SOME DENSE FOG OCCURRING ACROSS THE SALINAS
RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING PASO ROBLES. THIS SHOULD SCOUR OUT WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR THE LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS...WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS AS THE MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE WAS AROUND 3000 FT DEEP THIS MORNING. RH VALUES
REMAINED QUITE HIGH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND
VALLEYS. BUT AS NE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...THEY SHOULD MIX DOWN AS THE INVERSION IS QUITE WEAK.
EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS TO SURFACE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING
OFFSHORE WINDS TO AFFECT MOST OF THE LA COUNTY BASIN TODAY...EXCEPT
NEAR MALIBU AND AREAS WEST. EXPECT MOSTLY HAZY CONDS WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY FOR THE LA BASIN. BEST WARMING TODAY SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL HELP TO
BRING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. OVERALL...TODAYS HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS COAST AND
VALLEYS.

OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***


WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN DESERTS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW ARE STILL BLANKETING LOS ANGELES COUNTY...BUT
SHOULD THIN OUT THROUGH THE THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL AS
INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES...AND EVEN SOME PATCHY STRATUS FOR THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COASTS. BY LATE THIS MORNING...ANY STRATUS
AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...SO CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ALL AREAS. ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER
STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORY ISSUES AS THERE SHOULD ONLY BE
LOCALIZED GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA. HOWEVER WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH RATHER WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 70S TEMPS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FLOW TURNS WEAKLY ONSHORE AND HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE BIGHT. SO...WILL EXPECT
SOME STRATUS/FOG TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF VENTURA/LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES AND EVEN SQUEEZE INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPS...COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE INFLUENCE WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL
BE PERSISTENT...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT A BIT ON TUESDAY...THEN AMPLIFIES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH INCHES SLOWLY EAST WITH A FRONT MOVING
INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WILL BE RATHER BENIGN. OVERALL
WILL ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH SOME NIGHT/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT ONLY VERY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
AND REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AS FOR RAINFALL
CHANCES...BY FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A MINOR
THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. NEITHER THE
GFS OR ECMWF ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPS...CHANGES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE MINOR WITH
THE BEST COOLING LIKELY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 01/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTH BY 01/11Z. FREEZING
LEVEL WAS AROUND 8KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 4KFT
SUNDAY MORNING. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH 01/03Z AND AFTER 01/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENT. LOW CLOUD TOPS WERE AROUND 3KFT THIS MORNING BENEATH A
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED CAPPING INVERSION THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION
WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 3KFT AND STRENGTHEN WITH DECREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 3102 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 4245 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 09 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 021 AT TIMES THROUGH 31/20Z OTHERWISE SCT 250 AT
TIMES.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH PERIOD...OTHERWISE
CHANCE SCT 025 THROUGH 01/03Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS
&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA
ORIENTED BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE
FETCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 311729 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL OFFSHORE
WINDS. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY MINOR
VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...UPDATE...

THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NW MEXICO THIS
MORNING WITH A VORTLOBE LOCATED AROUND LAS VEGAS. THIS FEATURE WILL
WRAP COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE MAIN LOW CIRCULATION MOVING TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THAT
DIRECTION. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT VERY LIGHT. WITH
THIS NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE AREA...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS LA COUNTY TODAY...WITH LESS COVERAGE OVER
VENTURA...AND ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SBA COUNTY.

LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY DID INDICATE PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS SLO/SBA
INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH SOME DENSE FOG OCCURRING ACROSS THE SALINAS
RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING PASO ROBLES. THIS SHOULD SCOUR OUT WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR THE LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS...WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS AS THE MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE WAS AROUND 3000 FT DEEP THIS MORNING. RH VALUES
REMAINED QUITE HIGH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND
VALLEYS. BUT AS NE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...THEY SHOULD MIX DOWN AS THE INVERSION IS QUITE WEAK.
EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS TO SURFACE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING
OFFSHORE WINDS TO AFFECT MOST OF THE LA COUNTY BASIN TODAY...EXCEPT
NEAR MALIBU AND AREAS WEST. EXPECT MOSTLY HAZY CONDS WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY FOR THE LA BASIN. BEST WARMING TODAY SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL HELP TO
BRING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. OVERALL...TODAYS HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS COAST AND
VALLEYS.

OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***


WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN DESERTS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW ARE STILL BLANKETING LOS ANGELES COUNTY...BUT
SHOULD THIN OUT THROUGH THE THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL AS
INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES...AND EVEN SOME PATCHY STRATUS FOR THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COASTS. BY LATE THIS MORNING...ANY STRATUS
AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...SO CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ALL AREAS. ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER
STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORY ISSUES AS THERE SHOULD ONLY BE
LOCALIZED GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA. HOWEVER WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH RATHER WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 70S TEMPS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FLOW TURNS WEAKLY ONSHORE AND HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE BIGHT. SO...WILL EXPECT
SOME STRATUS/FOG TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF VENTURA/LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES AND EVEN SQUEEZE INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPS...COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE INFLUENCE WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL
BE PERSISTENT...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT A BIT ON TUESDAY...THEN AMPLIFIES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH INCHES SLOWLY EAST WITH A FRONT MOVING
INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WILL BE RATHER BENIGN. OVERALL
WILL ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH SOME NIGHT/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT ONLY VERY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
AND REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AS FOR RAINFALL
CHANCES...BY FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A MINOR
THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. NEITHER THE
GFS OR ECMWF ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPS...CHANGES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE MINOR WITH
THE BEST COOLING LIKELY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1100Z...
CHAOTIC LOW CLOUD PATTERN THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS ACROSS
THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND VLYS...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDS IN THE VLYS. N
OF PT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY LIFR TO VLIFR CONDS ON THE CENTRAL
COAST...IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF VTU AND SRN SBA COUNTIES...BUT
STRATUS DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE COAST SHOULD MORE INTO AT LEAST VTU
COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE
MORNING...THEN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP VFR CONDS THROUGH SUN
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO AND
SBA COUNTIES...WHERE IFR TO VLIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A 2O TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT SCATTER OUT
UNTIL AT LEAST 20Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z TUE.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL SLIP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH 17Z
THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...31/200 AM...

JUST SOME LOCAL WINDS GUSTS TO NEAR SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
ADVISORIES. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR WIND OR SEA ISSUES EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 311728 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL OFFSHORE
WINDS. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY MINOR
VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...UPDATE...

THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NW MEXICO THIS
MORNING WITH A VORTLOBE LOCATED AROUND LAS VEGAS. THIS FEATURE WILL
WRAP COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE MAIN LOW CIRCULATION MOVING TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THAT
DIRECTION. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT VERY LIGHT. WITH
THIS NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE AREA...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS LA COUNTY TODAY...WITH LESS COVERAGE OVER
VENTURA...AND ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SBA COUNTY.

LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY DID INDICATE PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS SLO
INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH SOME DENSE FOG OCCURRING ACROSS THE SALINAS
RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING PASO ROBLES. THIS SHOULD SCOUR OUT WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR THE LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS...WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS AS THE MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE WAS AROUND 3000 FT DEEP THIS MORNING. RH VALUES
REMAINED QUITE HIGH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND
VALLEYS. BUT AS NE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...THEY SHOULD MIX DOWN AS THE INVERSION IS QUITE WEAK.
EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS TO SURFACE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING
OFFSHORE WINDS TO AFFECT MOST OF THE LA COUNTY BASIN TODAY...EXCEPT
NEAR MALIBU AND AREAS WEST. EXPECT MOSTLY HAZY CONDS WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY FOR THE LA BASIN. BEST WARMING TODAY SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL HELP TO
BRING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. OVERALL...TODAYS HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS COAST AND
VALLEYS.

OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***


WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN DESERTS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW ARE STILL BLANKETING LOS ANGELES COUNTY...BUT
SHOULD THIN OUT THROUGH THE THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL AS
INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES...AND EVEN SOME PATCHY STRATUS FOR THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COASTS. BY LATE THIS MORNING...ANY STRATUS
AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...SO CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ALL AREAS. ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER
STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORY ISSUES AS THERE SHOULD ONLY BE
LOCALIZED GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA. HOWEVER WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH RATHER WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 70S TEMPS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FLOW TURNS WEAKLY ONSHORE AND HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE BIGHT. SO...WILL EXPECT
SOME STRATUS/FOG TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF VENTURA/LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES AND EVEN SQUEEZE INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPS...COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE INFLUENCE WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL
BE PERSISTENT...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT A BIT ON TUESDAY...THEN AMPLIFIES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH INCHES SLOWLY EAST WITH A FRONT MOVING
INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WILL BE RATHER BENIGN. OVERALL
WILL ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH SOME NIGHT/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT ONLY VERY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
AND REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AS FOR RAINFALL
CHANCES...BY FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A MINOR
THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. NEITHER THE
GFS OR ECMWF ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPS...CHANGES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE MINOR WITH
THE BEST COOLING LIKELY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1100Z...
CHAOTIC LOW CLOUD PATTERN THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS ACROSS
THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND VLYS...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDS IN THE VLYS. N
OF PT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY LIFR TO VLIFR CONDS ON THE CENTRAL
COAST...IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF VTU AND SRN SBA COUNTIES...BUT
STRATUS DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE COAST SHOULD MORE INTO AT LEAST VTU
COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE
MORNING...THEN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP VFR CONDS THROUGH SUN
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO AND
SBA COUNTIES...WHERE IFR TO VLIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A 2O TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT SCATTER OUT
UNTIL AT LEAST 20Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z TUE.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL SLIP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH 17Z
THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...31/200 AM...

JUST SOME LOCAL WINDS GUSTS TO NEAR SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
ADVISORIES. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR WIND OR SEA ISSUES EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 311728 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL OFFSHORE
WINDS. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY MINOR
VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...UPDATE...

THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NW MEXICO THIS
MORNING WITH A VORTLOBE LOCATED AROUND LAS VEGAS. THIS FEATURE WILL
WRAP COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE MAIN LOW CIRCULATION MOVING TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THAT
DIRECTION. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT VERY LIGHT. WITH
THIS NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE AREA...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS LA COUNTY TODAY...WITH LESS COVERAGE OVER
VENTURA...AND ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SBA COUNTY.

LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY DID INDICATE PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS SLO
INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH SOME DENSE FOG OCCURRING ACROSS THE SALINAS
RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING PASO ROBLES. THIS SHOULD SCOUR OUT WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR THE LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS...WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS AS THE MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE WAS AROUND 3000 FT DEEP THIS MORNING. RH VALUES
REMAINED QUITE HIGH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND
VALLEYS. BUT AS NE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...THEY SHOULD MIX DOWN AS THE INVERSION IS QUITE WEAK.
EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS TO SURFACE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING
OFFSHORE WINDS TO AFFECT MOST OF THE LA COUNTY BASIN TODAY...EXCEPT
NEAR MALIBU AND AREAS WEST. EXPECT MOSTLY HAZY CONDS WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY FOR THE LA BASIN. BEST WARMING TODAY SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL HELP TO
BRING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. OVERALL...TODAYS HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS COAST AND
VALLEYS.

OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***


WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN DESERTS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW ARE STILL BLANKETING LOS ANGELES COUNTY...BUT
SHOULD THIN OUT THROUGH THE THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL AS
INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES...AND EVEN SOME PATCHY STRATUS FOR THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COASTS. BY LATE THIS MORNING...ANY STRATUS
AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...SO CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ALL AREAS. ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER
STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORY ISSUES AS THERE SHOULD ONLY BE
LOCALIZED GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA. HOWEVER WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH RATHER WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 70S TEMPS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FLOW TURNS WEAKLY ONSHORE AND HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE BIGHT. SO...WILL EXPECT
SOME STRATUS/FOG TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF VENTURA/LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES AND EVEN SQUEEZE INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPS...COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE INFLUENCE WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL
BE PERSISTENT...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT A BIT ON TUESDAY...THEN AMPLIFIES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH INCHES SLOWLY EAST WITH A FRONT MOVING
INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WILL BE RATHER BENIGN. OVERALL
WILL ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH SOME NIGHT/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT ONLY VERY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
AND REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AS FOR RAINFALL
CHANCES...BY FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A MINOR
THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. NEITHER THE
GFS OR ECMWF ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPS...CHANGES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE MINOR WITH
THE BEST COOLING LIKELY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1100Z...
CHAOTIC LOW CLOUD PATTERN THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS ACROSS
THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND VLYS...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDS IN THE VLYS. N
OF PT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY LIFR TO VLIFR CONDS ON THE CENTRAL
COAST...IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF VTU AND SRN SBA COUNTIES...BUT
STRATUS DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE COAST SHOULD MORE INTO AT LEAST VTU
COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE
MORNING...THEN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP VFR CONDS THROUGH SUN
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO AND
SBA COUNTIES...WHERE IFR TO VLIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A 2O TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT SCATTER OUT
UNTIL AT LEAST 20Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z TUE.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL SLIP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH 17Z
THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...31/200 AM...

JUST SOME LOCAL WINDS GUSTS TO NEAR SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
ADVISORIES. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR WIND OR SEA ISSUES EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 311151 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL OFFSHORE
WINDS. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY MINOR
VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN DESERTS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW ARE STILL BLANKETING LOS ANGELES COUNTY...BUT
SHOULD THIN OUT THROUGH THE THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL AS
INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES...AND EVEN SOME PATCHY STRATUS FOR THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COASTS. BY LATE THIS MORNING...ANY STRATUS
AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...SO CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ALL AREAS. ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER
STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORY ISSUES AS THERE SHOULD ONLY BE
LOCALIZED GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA. HOWEVER WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH RATHER WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 70S TEMPS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FLOW TURNS WEAKLY ONSHORE AND HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE BIGHT. SO...WILL EXPECT
SOME STRATUS/FOG TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF VENTURA/LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES AND EVEN SQUEEZE INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPS...COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE INFLUENCE WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL
BE PERSISTENT...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT A BIT ON TUESDAY...THEN AMPLIFIES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH INCHES SLOWLY EAST WITH A FRONT MOVING
INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WILL BE RATHER BENIGN. OVERALL
WILL ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH SOME NIGHT/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT ONLY VERY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
AND REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AS FOR RAINFALL
CHANCES...BY FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A MINOR
THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. NEITHER THE
GFS OR ECMWF ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPS...CHANGES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE MINOR WITH
THE BEST COOLING LIKELY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1100Z...
CHAOTIC LOW CLOUD PATTERN THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS ACROSS
THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND VLYS...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDS IN THE VLYS. N
OF PT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY LIFR TO VLIFR CONDS ON THE CENTRAL
COAST...IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF VTU AND SRN SBA COUNTIES...BUT
STRATUS DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE COAST SHOULD MORE INTO AT LEAST VTU
COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE
MORNING...THEN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP VFR CONDS THROUGH SUN
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO AND
SBA COUNTIES...WHERE IFR TO VLIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A 2O TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT SCATTER OUT
UNTIL AT LEAST 20Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z TUE.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL SLIP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH 17Z
THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...31/200 AM...

JUST SOME LOCAL WINDS GUSTS TO NEAR SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
ADVISORIES. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR WIND OR SEA ISSUES EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 311151 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL OFFSHORE
WINDS. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY MINOR
VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN DESERTS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW ARE STILL BLANKETING LOS ANGELES COUNTY...BUT
SHOULD THIN OUT THROUGH THE THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL AS
INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES...AND EVEN SOME PATCHY STRATUS FOR THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COASTS. BY LATE THIS MORNING...ANY STRATUS
AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...SO CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ALL AREAS. ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER
STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORY ISSUES AS THERE SHOULD ONLY BE
LOCALIZED GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA. HOWEVER WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH RATHER WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 70S TEMPS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FLOW TURNS WEAKLY ONSHORE AND HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE BIGHT. SO...WILL EXPECT
SOME STRATUS/FOG TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF VENTURA/LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES AND EVEN SQUEEZE INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPS...COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE INFLUENCE WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL
BE PERSISTENT...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT A BIT ON TUESDAY...THEN AMPLIFIES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH INCHES SLOWLY EAST WITH A FRONT MOVING
INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WILL BE RATHER BENIGN. OVERALL
WILL ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH SOME NIGHT/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT ONLY VERY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
AND REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AS FOR RAINFALL
CHANCES...BY FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A MINOR
THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. NEITHER THE
GFS OR ECMWF ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPS...CHANGES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE MINOR WITH
THE BEST COOLING LIKELY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1100Z...
CHAOTIC LOW CLOUD PATTERN THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS ACROSS
THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND VLYS...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDS IN THE VLYS. N
OF PT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY LIFR TO VLIFR CONDS ON THE CENTRAL
COAST...IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF VTU AND SRN SBA COUNTIES...BUT
STRATUS DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE COAST SHOULD MORE INTO AT LEAST VTU
COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE
MORNING...THEN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP VFR CONDS THROUGH SUN
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO AND
SBA COUNTIES...WHERE IFR TO VLIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A 2O TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT SCATTER OUT
UNTIL AT LEAST 20Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z TUE.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL SLIP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH 17Z
THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...31/200 AM...

JUST SOME LOCAL WINDS GUSTS TO NEAR SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
ADVISORIES. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR WIND OR SEA ISSUES EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 310956
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL OFFSHORE
WINDS. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY MINOR
VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN DESERTS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW ARE STILL BLANKETING LOS ANGELES COUNTY...BUT
SHOULD THIN OUT THROUGH THE THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL AS
INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES...AND EVEN SOME PATCHY STRATUS FOR THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COASTS. BY LATE THIS MORNING...ANY STRATUS
AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...SO CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ALL AREAS. ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER
STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORY ISSUES AS THERE SHOULD ONLY BE
LOCALIZED GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA. HOWEVER WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH RATHER WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 70S TEMPS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FLOW TURNS WEAKLY ONSHORE AND HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE BIGHT. SO...WILL EXPECT
SOME STRATUS/FOG TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF VENTURA/LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES AND EVEN SQUEEZE INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPS...COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE INFLUENCE WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL
BE PERSISTENT...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT A BIT ON TUESDAY...THEN AMPLIFIES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH INCHES SLOWLY EAST WITH A FRONT MOVING
INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WILL BE RATHER BENIGN. OVERALL
WILL ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH SOME NIGHT/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT ONLY VERY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
AND REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AS FOR RAINFALL
CHANCES...BY FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A MINOR
THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. NEITHER THE
GFS OR ECMWF ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPS...CHANGES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE MINOR WITH
THE BEST COOLING LIKELY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1100Z...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.MARINE...31/200 AM...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 310956
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL OFFSHORE
WINDS. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY MINOR
VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN DESERTS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW ARE STILL BLANKETING LOS ANGELES COUNTY...BUT
SHOULD THIN OUT THROUGH THE THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL AS
INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES...AND EVEN SOME PATCHY STRATUS FOR THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COASTS. BY LATE THIS MORNING...ANY STRATUS
AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...SO CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ALL AREAS. ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER
STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORY ISSUES AS THERE SHOULD ONLY BE
LOCALIZED GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA. HOWEVER WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH RATHER WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 70S TEMPS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FLOW TURNS WEAKLY ONSHORE AND HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE BIGHT. SO...WILL EXPECT
SOME STRATUS/FOG TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF VENTURA/LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES AND EVEN SQUEEZE INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPS...COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE INFLUENCE WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL
BE PERSISTENT...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT A BIT ON TUESDAY...THEN AMPLIFIES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH INCHES SLOWLY EAST WITH A FRONT MOVING
INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WILL BE RATHER BENIGN. OVERALL
WILL ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH SOME NIGHT/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT ONLY VERY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
AND REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AS FOR RAINFALL
CHANCES...BY FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A MINOR
THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. NEITHER THE
GFS OR ECMWF ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPS...CHANGES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE MINOR WITH
THE BEST COOLING LIKELY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1100Z...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.MARINE...31/200 AM...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 310549 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON THE WEEKEND...
WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS IN SOME AREAS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK ON SUNDAY AND VARY LITTLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SOME INSTABILITY INCREASED WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATED BY EARLY EVENING WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NOTED OVER PARTS OF L.A. COUNTY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL
END BY MID EVENING WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
LINGERING MAINLY OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. LOW CLOUDS DID FORM ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND SPREAD INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AND ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE OXNARD PLAIN...BUT OFFSHORE
FLOW SHOULD CLEAR THESE CLOUDS OUT OF THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT FOR THE L.A. COUNTY COAST. IN
THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD
FORM BY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN CA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY E
OVERNIGHT...THEN S WHILE WEAKENING ON SAT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO NRN CA SAT THEN MOVE INTO SRN CA FOR SUN AND MON. SOME
LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES SAT
MORNING THEN DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THRU MON. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM
WAS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST S OF
POINT CONCEPTION SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING THANKS TO AN EDDY OVER
THE SOCAL BIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BY SAT MORNING...WITH
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND IN THE
ANTELOPE VLY. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS...EXCEPT APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MTNS. OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND SOME FOOTHILL AREAS OF VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES IN THESE
AREAS. LINGERING OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SLO/SBA
COUNTIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS SAT THRU
MON...ALTHO IT LOOKS LIKE SUN WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE THREE DAYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...NOT MUCH WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG
RANGE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE BUILDS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO TAKE A RUN AT THE CENTRAL COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...BEFORE A RIDGE DEVELOPS AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE CENTRAL COAST FOR FRIDAY
IF THE LATEST ECMWF IS RIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN BELOW 20
PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...31/0550Z...

AT 0430Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. FOR KPRB...A PERIOD OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AFFECT THE AIRFIELD ABOUT 13Z-19Z SAT. AT KLAX AND
KLGB... MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...ALTHO
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS NOT OCCURRING. AT KSMX...THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE SWRN CA AIRFIELDS THRU SAT
EVENING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NE WINDS ARE LIKELY AT KWJF AND KPMD
SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS 12Z-18Z
SAT...ALTHO THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO LOW CIGS DEVELOPING.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SAT AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AROUND 12 KT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WIND AND SEAS AROUND
10 FEET FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10-60 NM AND FROM THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA ORIENTED BETWEEN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE FETCH AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/SUKUP
AVIATION..SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 310549 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON THE WEEKEND...
WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS IN SOME AREAS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK ON SUNDAY AND VARY LITTLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SOME INSTABILITY INCREASED WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATED BY EARLY EVENING WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NOTED OVER PARTS OF L.A. COUNTY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL
END BY MID EVENING WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
LINGERING MAINLY OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. LOW CLOUDS DID FORM ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND SPREAD INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AND ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE OXNARD PLAIN...BUT OFFSHORE
FLOW SHOULD CLEAR THESE CLOUDS OUT OF THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT FOR THE L.A. COUNTY COAST. IN
THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD
FORM BY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN CA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY E
OVERNIGHT...THEN S WHILE WEAKENING ON SAT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO NRN CA SAT THEN MOVE INTO SRN CA FOR SUN AND MON. SOME
LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES SAT
MORNING THEN DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THRU MON. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM
WAS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST S OF
POINT CONCEPTION SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING THANKS TO AN EDDY OVER
THE SOCAL BIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BY SAT MORNING...WITH
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND IN THE
ANTELOPE VLY. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS...EXCEPT APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MTNS. OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND SOME FOOTHILL AREAS OF VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES IN THESE
AREAS. LINGERING OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SLO/SBA
COUNTIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS SAT THRU
MON...ALTHO IT LOOKS LIKE SUN WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE THREE DAYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...NOT MUCH WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG
RANGE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE BUILDS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO TAKE A RUN AT THE CENTRAL COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...BEFORE A RIDGE DEVELOPS AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE CENTRAL COAST FOR FRIDAY
IF THE LATEST ECMWF IS RIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN BELOW 20
PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...31/0550Z...

AT 0430Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. FOR KPRB...A PERIOD OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AFFECT THE AIRFIELD ABOUT 13Z-19Z SAT. AT KLAX AND
KLGB... MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...ALTHO
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS NOT OCCURRING. AT KSMX...THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE SWRN CA AIRFIELDS THRU SAT
EVENING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NE WINDS ARE LIKELY AT KWJF AND KPMD
SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS 12Z-18Z
SAT...ALTHO THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO LOW CIGS DEVELOPING.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SAT AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AROUND 12 KT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WIND AND SEAS AROUND
10 FEET FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10-60 NM AND FROM THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA ORIENTED BETWEEN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE FETCH AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/SUKUP
AVIATION..SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 310520
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON THE WEEKEND...
WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS IN SOME AREAS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK ON SUNDAY AND VARY LITTLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SOME INSTABILITY INCREASED WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATED BY EARLY EVENING WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NOTED OVER PARTS OF L.A. COUNTY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL
END BY MID EVENING WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
LINGERING MAINLY OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. LOW CLOUDS DID FORM ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND SPREAD INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AND ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE OXNARD PLAIN...BUT OFFSHORE
FLOW SHOULD CLEAR THESE CLOUDS OUT OF THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT FOR THE L.A. COUNTY COAST. IN
THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD
FORM BY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN CA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY E
OVERNIGHT...THEN S WHILE WEAKENING ON SAT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO NRN CA SAT THEN MOVE INTO SRN CA FOR SUN AND MON. SOME
LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES SAT
MORNING THEN DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THRU MON. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM
WAS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST S OF
POINT CONCEPTION SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING THANKS TO AN EDDY OVER
THE SOCAL BIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BY SAT MORNING...WITH
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND IN THE
ANTELOPE VLY. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS...EXCEPT APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MTNS. OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND SOME FOOTHILL AREAS OF VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES IN THESE
AREAS. LINGERING OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SLO/SBA
COUNTIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS SAT THRU
MON...ALTHO IT LOOKS LIKE SUN WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE THREE DAYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...NOT MUCH WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG
RANGE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE BUILDS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO TAKE A RUN AT THE CENTRAL COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...BEFORE A RIDGE DEVELOPS AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE CENTRAL COAST FOR FRIDAY
IF THE LATEST ECMWF IS RIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN BELOW 20
PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...31/0005Z...

AT 2345Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. FOR KPRB...A PERIOD OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AFFECT THE AIRFIELD ABOUT 13Z-19Z SAT. AT KLAX AND
KLGB... MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...ALTHO
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS NOT OCCURRING. AT KSMX...THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE SWRN CA AIRFIELDS THRU
SAT. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KWJF AND KPMD SAT
AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SAT EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS 13Z-19Z
SAT...ALTHO THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO LOW CIGS DEVELOPING.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SAT AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AROUND 12 KT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WIND AND SEAS AROUND
10 FEET FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10-60 NM AND FROM THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA ORIENTED BETWEEN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE FETCH AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/SUKUP
AVIATION..SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 310520
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON THE WEEKEND...
WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS IN SOME AREAS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK ON SUNDAY AND VARY LITTLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SOME INSTABILITY INCREASED WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATED BY EARLY EVENING WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NOTED OVER PARTS OF L.A. COUNTY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL
END BY MID EVENING WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
LINGERING MAINLY OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. LOW CLOUDS DID FORM ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND SPREAD INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AND ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE OXNARD PLAIN...BUT OFFSHORE
FLOW SHOULD CLEAR THESE CLOUDS OUT OF THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT FOR THE L.A. COUNTY COAST. IN
THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD
FORM BY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN CA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY E
OVERNIGHT...THEN S WHILE WEAKENING ON SAT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO NRN CA SAT THEN MOVE INTO SRN CA FOR SUN AND MON. SOME
LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES SAT
MORNING THEN DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THRU MON. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM
WAS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST S OF
POINT CONCEPTION SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING THANKS TO AN EDDY OVER
THE SOCAL BIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BY SAT MORNING...WITH
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND IN THE
ANTELOPE VLY. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS...EXCEPT APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MTNS. OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND SOME FOOTHILL AREAS OF VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES IN THESE
AREAS. LINGERING OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SLO/SBA
COUNTIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS SAT THRU
MON...ALTHO IT LOOKS LIKE SUN WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE THREE DAYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...NOT MUCH WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG
RANGE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE BUILDS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO TAKE A RUN AT THE CENTRAL COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...BEFORE A RIDGE DEVELOPS AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE CENTRAL COAST FOR FRIDAY
IF THE LATEST ECMWF IS RIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN BELOW 20
PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...31/0005Z...

AT 2345Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. FOR KPRB...A PERIOD OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AFFECT THE AIRFIELD ABOUT 13Z-19Z SAT. AT KLAX AND
KLGB... MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...ALTHO
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS NOT OCCURRING. AT KSMX...THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE SWRN CA AIRFIELDS THRU
SAT. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KWJF AND KPMD SAT
AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SAT EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS 13Z-19Z
SAT...ALTHO THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO LOW CIGS DEVELOPING.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SAT AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AROUND 12 KT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WIND AND SEAS AROUND
10 FEET FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10-60 NM AND FROM THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA ORIENTED BETWEEN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE FETCH AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/SUKUP
AVIATION..SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 310007 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
410 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PARTS
OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CLEARING AND WARMING TREND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR SKIES NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SE CA THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIKE THE HRRR WAS SUGGESTING EARLIER...SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF LA COUNTY AND PARTS
OF VENTURA COUNTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER-LOW
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES LINGERING OVER THE SAN
GABRIELS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SALINAS VALLEY AGAIN
TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON THE LA
COAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS A WEAK EDDY SPINS UP.

NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE AND A RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
CA...SETTING UPPER NE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE THE NE WINDS WILL PEAK
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT PLANNING ON PUTTING ANY WIND
ADVISORIES OUT AT THIS TIME...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. RIGHT NOW JUST EXPECTING
SOME ISOLATED NE GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE LA MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH FEWER CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH FURTHER WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S TO THE UPPER 70S FOR
THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SLIGHT COOLING POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS A LITTLE...BUT OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...

NOT MUCH WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG RANGE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE
BUILDS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO TAKE A RUN
AT THE CENTRAL COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A RIDGE DEVELOPS
AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO THE CENTRAL COAST FOR FRIDAY IF THE LATEST ECMWF IS RIGHT. FOR
NOW KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...31/0005Z...

AT 2345Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. FOR KPRB...A PERIOD OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AFFECT THE AIRFIELD ABOUT 13Z-19Z SAT. AT KLAX AND
KLGB... MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...ALTHO
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS NOT OCCURRING. AT KSMX...THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE SWRN CA AIRFIELDS THRU
SAT. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KWJF AND KPMD SAT
AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SAT EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS 13Z-19Z
SAT...ALTHO THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO LOW CIGS DEVELOPING.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SAT AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AROUND 12 KT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WIND AND SEAS AROUND
10 FEET FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10-60 NM AND FROM THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA ORIENTED
BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE FETCH AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION..SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 310007 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
410 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PARTS
OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CLEARING AND WARMING TREND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR SKIES NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SE CA THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIKE THE HRRR WAS SUGGESTING EARLIER...SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF LA COUNTY AND PARTS
OF VENTURA COUNTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER-LOW
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES LINGERING OVER THE SAN
GABRIELS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SALINAS VALLEY AGAIN
TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON THE LA
COAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS A WEAK EDDY SPINS UP.

NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE AND A RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
CA...SETTING UPPER NE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE THE NE WINDS WILL PEAK
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT PLANNING ON PUTTING ANY WIND
ADVISORIES OUT AT THIS TIME...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. RIGHT NOW JUST EXPECTING
SOME ISOLATED NE GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE LA MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH FEWER CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH FURTHER WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S TO THE UPPER 70S FOR
THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SLIGHT COOLING POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS A LITTLE...BUT OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...

NOT MUCH WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG RANGE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE
BUILDS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO TAKE A RUN
AT THE CENTRAL COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A RIDGE DEVELOPS
AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO THE CENTRAL COAST FOR FRIDAY IF THE LATEST ECMWF IS RIGHT. FOR
NOW KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...31/0005Z...

AT 2345Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. FOR KPRB...A PERIOD OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AFFECT THE AIRFIELD ABOUT 13Z-19Z SAT. AT KLAX AND
KLGB... MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...ALTHO
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS NOT OCCURRING. AT KSMX...THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE SWRN CA AIRFIELDS THRU
SAT. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KWJF AND KPMD SAT
AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SAT EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS 13Z-19Z
SAT...ALTHO THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO LOW CIGS DEVELOPING.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SAT AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AROUND 12 KT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WIND AND SEAS AROUND
10 FEET FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10-60 NM AND FROM THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA ORIENTED
BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE FETCH AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION..SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 302155
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
155 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PARTS
OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CLEARING AND WARMING TREND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR SKIES NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SE CA THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIKE THE HRRR WAS SUGGESTING EARLIER...SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF LA COUNTY AND PARTS
OF VENTURA COUNTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER-LOW
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES LINGERING OVER THE SAN
GABRIELS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SALINAS VALLEY AGAIN
TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON THE LA
COAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS A WEAK EDDY SPINS UP.

NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE AND A RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
CA...SETTING UPPER NE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE THE NE WINDS WILL PEAK
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT PLANNING ON PUTTING ANY WIND
ADVISORIES OUT AT THIS TIME...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. RIGHT NOW JUST EXPECTING
SOME ISOLATED NE GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE LA MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH FEWER CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH FURTHER WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S TO THE UPPER 70S FOR
THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SLIGHT COOLING POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS A LITTLE...BUT OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...

NOT MUCH WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG RANGE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE
BUILDS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO TAKE A RUN
AT THE CENTRAL COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A RIDGE DEVELOPS
AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO THE CENTRAL COAST FOR FRIDAY IF THE LATEST ECMWF IS RIGHT. FOR
NOW KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA
WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE NORTH BY 31/07Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS BECOME MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 31/20Z.
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 31/06Z.
FREEZING LEVEL WAS AROUND 8KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER LITTLE
SATURDAY MORNING. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH
31/08Z AND AFTER 31/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT. NO MARINE
INVERSION THIS MORNING AND A WEAK INVERSION IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUD
TOPS NEAR 2KFT SATURDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
31/03Z AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 30/21Z. THERE
IS A CHANCE CIGS 015 BETWEEN 31/13-31/19Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
31/08Z AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 30/22Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WIND AND SEAS AROUND
10 FEET FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10-60 NM AND FROM THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA ORIENTED
BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE FETCH AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 302155
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
155 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PARTS
OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CLEARING AND WARMING TREND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR SKIES NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SE CA THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIKE THE HRRR WAS SUGGESTING EARLIER...SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF LA COUNTY AND PARTS
OF VENTURA COUNTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER-LOW
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES LINGERING OVER THE SAN
GABRIELS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SALINAS VALLEY AGAIN
TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON THE LA
COAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS A WEAK EDDY SPINS UP.

NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE AND A RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
CA...SETTING UPPER NE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE THE NE WINDS WILL PEAK
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT PLANNING ON PUTTING ANY WIND
ADVISORIES OUT AT THIS TIME...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. RIGHT NOW JUST EXPECTING
SOME ISOLATED NE GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE LA MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH FEWER CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH FURTHER WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S TO THE UPPER 70S FOR
THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SLIGHT COOLING POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS A LITTLE...BUT OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...

NOT MUCH WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG RANGE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE
BUILDS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO TAKE A RUN
AT THE CENTRAL COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A RIDGE DEVELOPS
AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO THE CENTRAL COAST FOR FRIDAY IF THE LATEST ECMWF IS RIGHT. FOR
NOW KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA
WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE NORTH BY 31/07Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS BECOME MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 31/20Z.
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 31/06Z.
FREEZING LEVEL WAS AROUND 8KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER LITTLE
SATURDAY MORNING. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH
31/08Z AND AFTER 31/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT. NO MARINE
INVERSION THIS MORNING AND A WEAK INVERSION IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUD
TOPS NEAR 2KFT SATURDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
31/03Z AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 30/21Z. THERE
IS A CHANCE CIGS 015 BETWEEN 31/13-31/19Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
31/08Z AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 30/22Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WIND AND SEAS AROUND
10 FEET FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10-60 NM AND FROM THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA ORIENTED
BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE FETCH AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 301813
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1013 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...

FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE. JUST KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN PARTS OF VENTURA COUNTY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRYING TREND. THE HRRR DOES AS WELL...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE
FLARE UP OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...SO EASTERN VENTURA
COUNTY AND MUCH OF LA COUNTY COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTY HAVE BEEN LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05"...EXCEPT SOME
0.25" AMOUNTS IN THE SAN GABRIELS). WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT. OVERALL TREND FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS
WILL BE A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY SINCE
LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN ANEMIC. WELL BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH EVERYWHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST WILL BECOME MORE
ELONGATED AND STRETCH MORE NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN HALF....WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION LIKELY UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN OVER 7000 FT TODAY...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO
6500 FT EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY SNOWFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT A FEW INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE EASTERN SAN
GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY
TONIGHT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
BY LATE SAT MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
ACROSS LA/VTU MTNS AND WIND PRONE LA/VTU COUNTY PASSES AND CANYONS
AND ACROSS THE OXNARD PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. BUT WILL
BE CLOSE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL BE A LIMITED WINDOW OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A WARM UP ON SATURDAY BUT
MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS DUE
TO OFFSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN OVER BAJA WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY ACROSS
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS INTO THE MID 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS ISSUES...EXCEPT FOR LA
COUNTY COAST SATURDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION
STRONG UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND A DIRTY RIDGE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY N OF POINT CONCEPTION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WINDS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN PRETTY
NEUTRAL. THAT BEING SAID...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
WARMING UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 80 BY WED/THU. HAVE ADDED SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME AND ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA
WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE NORTH BY 31/07Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS BECOME MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 31/20Z.
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 31/06Z.
FREEZING LEVEL WAS AROUND 8KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER LITTLE
SATURDAY MORNING. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH
31/08Z AND AFTER 31/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT. NO MARINE
INVERSION THIS MORNING AND A WEAK INVERSION IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUD
TOPS NEAR 2KFT SATURDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
31/03Z AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 30/21Z. THERE
IS A CHANCE CIGS 015 BETWEEN 31/13-31/19Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
31/08Z AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 30/22Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...30/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WIND AND SEAS AROUND
10 FEET FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10-60 NM AND FROM THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA ORIENTED
BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE FETCH AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 301813
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1013 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...

FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE. JUST KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN PARTS OF VENTURA COUNTY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRYING TREND. THE HRRR DOES AS WELL...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE
FLARE UP OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...SO EASTERN VENTURA
COUNTY AND MUCH OF LA COUNTY COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTY HAVE BEEN LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05"...EXCEPT SOME
0.25" AMOUNTS IN THE SAN GABRIELS). WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT. OVERALL TREND FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS
WILL BE A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY SINCE
LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN ANEMIC. WELL BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH EVERYWHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST WILL BECOME MORE
ELONGATED AND STRETCH MORE NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN HALF....WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION LIKELY UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN OVER 7000 FT TODAY...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO
6500 FT EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY SNOWFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT A FEW INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE EASTERN SAN
GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY
TONIGHT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
BY LATE SAT MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
ACROSS LA/VTU MTNS AND WIND PRONE LA/VTU COUNTY PASSES AND CANYONS
AND ACROSS THE OXNARD PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. BUT WILL
BE CLOSE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL BE A LIMITED WINDOW OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A WARM UP ON SATURDAY BUT
MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS DUE
TO OFFSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN OVER BAJA WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY ACROSS
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS INTO THE MID 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS ISSUES...EXCEPT FOR LA
COUNTY COAST SATURDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION
STRONG UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND A DIRTY RIDGE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY N OF POINT CONCEPTION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WINDS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN PRETTY
NEUTRAL. THAT BEING SAID...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
WARMING UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 80 BY WED/THU. HAVE ADDED SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME AND ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA
WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE NORTH BY 31/07Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS BECOME MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 31/20Z.
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 31/06Z.
FREEZING LEVEL WAS AROUND 8KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER LITTLE
SATURDAY MORNING. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH
31/08Z AND AFTER 31/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT. NO MARINE
INVERSION THIS MORNING AND A WEAK INVERSION IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUD
TOPS NEAR 2KFT SATURDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
31/03Z AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 30/21Z. THERE
IS A CHANCE CIGS 015 BETWEEN 31/13-31/19Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
31/08Z AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 30/22Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...30/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WIND AND SEAS AROUND
10 FEET FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10-60 NM AND FROM THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA ORIENTED
BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE FETCH AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 301754
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
954 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...

FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE. JUST KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN PARTS OF VENTURA COUNTY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRYING TREND. THE HRRR DOES AS WELL...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE
FLARE UP OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...SO EASTERN VENTURA
COUNTY AND MUCH OF LA COUNTY COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTY HAVE BEEN LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05"...EXCEPT SOME
0.25" AMOUNTS IN THE SAN GABRIELS). WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT. OVERALL TREND FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS
WILL BE A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY SINCE
LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN ANEMIC. WELL BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH EVERYWHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST WILL BECOME MORE
ELONGATED AND STRETCH MORE NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN HALF....WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION LIKELY UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN OVER 7000 FT TODAY...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO
6500 FT EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY SNOWFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT A FEW INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE EASTERN SAN
GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY
TONIGHT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
BY LATE SAT MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
ACROSS LA/VTU MTNS AND WIND PRONE LA/VTU COUNTY PASSES AND CANYONS
AND ACROSS THE OXNARD PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. BUT WILL
BE CLOSE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL BE A LIMITED WINDOW OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A WARM UP ON SATURDAY BUT
MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS DUE
TO OFFSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN OVER BAJA WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY ACROSS
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS INTO THE MID 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS ISSUES...EXCEPT FOR LA
COUNTY COAST SATURDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION
STRONG UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND A DIRTY RIDGE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY N OF POINT CONCEPTION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WINDS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN PRETTY
NEUTRAL. THAT BEING SAID...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
WARMING UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 80 BY WED/THU. HAVE ADDED SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME AND ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...30/1045Z...

AT 0910Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX...WITH THE
INVERSION TOP AT 1100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. UPPER LOW SPINNING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS LOS ANGELES
COUNTY...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE ONLY ISSUE
THIS MORNING IS ANTICIPATED TO BE KPRB WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF VLIFR
CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.
LATE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 KNOTS
DEVELOPING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WIND AND SEAS AROUND
10 FEET FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10-60 NM AND FROM THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA ORIENTED
BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE FETCH AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 301710
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...

FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE. JUST KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN PARTS OF VENTURA COUNTY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRYING TREND. THE HRRR DOES AS WELL...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE
FLARE UP OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...SO EASTERN VENTURA
COUNTY AND MUCH OF LA COUNTY COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTY HAVE BEEN LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05"...EXCEPT SOME
0.25" AMOUNTS IN THE SAN GABRIELS). WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT. OVERALL TREND FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS
WILL BE A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY SINCE
LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN ANEMIC. WELL BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH EVERYWHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST WILL BECOME MORE
ELONGATED AND STRETCH MORE NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN HALF....WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION LIKELY UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN OVER 7000 FT TODAY...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO
6500 FT EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY SNOWFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT A FEW INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE EASTERN SAN
GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY
TONIGHT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
BY LATE SAT MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
ACROSS LA/VTU MTNS AND WIND PRONE LA/VTU COUNTY PASSES AND CANYONS
AND ACROSS THE OXNARD PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. BUT WILL
BE CLOSE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL BE A LIMITED WINDOW OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A WARM UP ON SATURDAY BUT
MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS DUE
TO OFFSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN OVER BAJA WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY ACROSS
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS INTO THE MID 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS ISSUES...EXCEPT FOR LA
COUNTY COAST SATURDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION
STRONG UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND A DIRTY RIDGE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY N OF POINT CONCEPTION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WINDS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN PRETTY
NEUTRAL. THAT BEING SAID...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
WARMING UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 80 BY WED/THU. HAVE ADDED SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME AND ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...30/1045Z...

AT 0910Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX...WITH THE
INVERSION TOP AT 1100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. UPPER LOW SPINNING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS LOS ANGELES
COUNTY...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE ONLY ISSUE
THIS MORNING IS ANTICIPATED TO BE KPRB WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF VLIFR
CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.
LATE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 KNOTS
DEVELOPING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...30/215 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
ONLY LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A 30%
CHANCE OF NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY NEAR SHORE
FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 301710
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...

FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE. JUST KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN PARTS OF VENTURA COUNTY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRYING TREND. THE HRRR DOES AS WELL...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE
FLARE UP OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...SO EASTERN VENTURA
COUNTY AND MUCH OF LA COUNTY COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTY HAVE BEEN LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05"...EXCEPT SOME
0.25" AMOUNTS IN THE SAN GABRIELS). WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT. OVERALL TREND FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS
WILL BE A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY SINCE
LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN ANEMIC. WELL BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH EVERYWHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST WILL BECOME MORE
ELONGATED AND STRETCH MORE NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN HALF....WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION LIKELY UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN OVER 7000 FT TODAY...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO
6500 FT EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY SNOWFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT A FEW INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE EASTERN SAN
GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY
TONIGHT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
BY LATE SAT MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
ACROSS LA/VTU MTNS AND WIND PRONE LA/VTU COUNTY PASSES AND CANYONS
AND ACROSS THE OXNARD PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. BUT WILL
BE CLOSE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL BE A LIMITED WINDOW OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A WARM UP ON SATURDAY BUT
MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS DUE
TO OFFSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN OVER BAJA WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY ACROSS
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS INTO THE MID 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS ISSUES...EXCEPT FOR LA
COUNTY COAST SATURDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION
STRONG UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND A DIRTY RIDGE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY N OF POINT CONCEPTION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WINDS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN PRETTY
NEUTRAL. THAT BEING SAID...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
WARMING UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 80 BY WED/THU. HAVE ADDED SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME AND ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...30/1045Z...

AT 0910Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX...WITH THE
INVERSION TOP AT 1100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. UPPER LOW SPINNING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS LOS ANGELES
COUNTY...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE ONLY ISSUE
THIS MORNING IS ANTICIPATED TO BE KPRB WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF VLIFR
CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.
LATE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 KNOTS
DEVELOPING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...30/215 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
ONLY LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A 30%
CHANCE OF NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY NEAR SHORE
FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 301329
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY SINCE LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ANEMIC. WELL BELOW A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERYWHERE. THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF
THE SAN DIEGO COAST WILL BECOME MORE ELONGATED AND STRETCH MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF....WITH THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION LIKELY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY.

AS FAR AS ADDITIONAL PRECIP...THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
OVER LA COUNTY AND THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA COUNTY TODAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BEARISH. THE
MID AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE
UPPER LOW SCOOTS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. THE NORTHEASTERLY WRAP AROUND
FLOW WILL BENEFIT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...WHILE
THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OR RAINSHADOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL
AREAS WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES. WILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE COAST AND VALLEYS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
SHOULD SEE MORE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY AND EASTERN SAN GABRIEL MTNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN OVER 7000 FT TODAY...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO 6500 FT
EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY SNOWFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT A FEW INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FOR AREAS N OF
VENTURA COUNTY...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY
TONIGHT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
BY LATE SAT MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
ACROSS LA/VTU MTNS AND WIND PRONE LA/VTU COUNTY PASSES AND CANYONS
AND ACROSS THE OXNARD PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. BUT WILL
BE CLOSE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL BE A LIMITED WINDOW OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A WARM UP ON SATURDAY BUT
MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS DUE
TO OFFSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN OVER BAJA WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY ACROSS
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS INTO THE MID 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS ISSUES...EXCEPT FOR LA
COUNTY COAST SATURDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION
STRONG UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND A DIRTY RIDGE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY N OF POINT CONCEPTION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WINDS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN PRETTY
NEUTRAL. THAT BEING SAID...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
WARMING UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 80 BY WED/THU. HAVE ADDED SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME AND ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...30/1045Z...

AT 0910Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX...WITH THE
INVERSION TOP AT 1100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. UPPER LOW SPINNING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS LOS ANGELES
COUNTY...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE ONLY ISSUE
THIS MORNING IS ANTICIPATED TO BE KPRB WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF VLIFR
CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.
LATE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 KNOTS
DEVELOPING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...30/215 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
ONLY LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A 30%
CHANCE OF NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY NEAR SHORE
FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 301329
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY SINCE LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ANEMIC. WELL BELOW A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERYWHERE. THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF
THE SAN DIEGO COAST WILL BECOME MORE ELONGATED AND STRETCH MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF....WITH THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION LIKELY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY.

AS FAR AS ADDITIONAL PRECIP...THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
OVER LA COUNTY AND THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA COUNTY TODAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BEARISH. THE
MID AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE
UPPER LOW SCOOTS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. THE NORTHEASTERLY WRAP AROUND
FLOW WILL BENEFIT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...WHILE
THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OR RAINSHADOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL
AREAS WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES. WILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE COAST AND VALLEYS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
SHOULD SEE MORE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY AND EASTERN SAN GABRIEL MTNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN OVER 7000 FT TODAY...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO 6500 FT
EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY SNOWFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT A FEW INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FOR AREAS N OF
VENTURA COUNTY...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY
TONIGHT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
BY LATE SAT MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
ACROSS LA/VTU MTNS AND WIND PRONE LA/VTU COUNTY PASSES AND CANYONS
AND ACROSS THE OXNARD PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. BUT WILL
BE CLOSE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL BE A LIMITED WINDOW OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A WARM UP ON SATURDAY BUT
MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS DUE
TO OFFSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN OVER BAJA WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY ACROSS
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS INTO THE MID 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS ISSUES...EXCEPT FOR LA
COUNTY COAST SATURDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION
STRONG UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND A DIRTY RIDGE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY N OF POINT CONCEPTION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WINDS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN PRETTY
NEUTRAL. THAT BEING SAID...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
WARMING UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 80 BY WED/THU. HAVE ADDED SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME AND ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...30/1045Z...

AT 0910Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX...WITH THE
INVERSION TOP AT 1100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. UPPER LOW SPINNING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS LOS ANGELES
COUNTY...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE ONLY ISSUE
THIS MORNING IS ANTICIPATED TO BE KPRB WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF VLIFR
CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.
LATE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 KNOTS
DEVELOPING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...30/215 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
ONLY LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A 30%
CHANCE OF NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY NEAR SHORE
FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 301050
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY SINCE LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ANEMIC. WELL BELOW A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERYWHERE. THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF
THE SAN DIEGO COAST WILL BECOME MORE ELONGATED AND STRETCH MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF....WITH THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION LIKELY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY.

AS FAR AS ADDITIONAL PRECIP...THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
OVER LA COUNTY AND THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA COUNTY TODAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BEARISH. THE
MID AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE
UPPER LOW SCOOTS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. THE NORTHEASTERLY WRAP AROUND
FLOW WILL BENEFIT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...WHILE
THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OR RAINSHADOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL
AREAS WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES. WILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE COAST AND VALLEYS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
SHOULD SEE MORE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY AND EASTERN SAN GABRIEL MTNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN OVER 7000 FT TODAY...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO 6500 FT
EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY SNOWFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT A FEW INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FOR AREAS N OF
VENTURA COUNTY...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY
TONIGHT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
BY LATE SAT MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
ACROSS LA/VTU MTNS AND WIND PRONE LA/VTU COUNTY PASSES AND CANYONS
AND ACROSS THE OXNARD PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. BUT WILL
BE CLOSE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL BE A LIMITED WINDOW OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A WARM UP ON SATURDAY BUT
MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS DUE
TO OFFSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN OVER BAJA WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY ACROSS
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS INTO THE MID 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS ISSUES...EXCEPT FOR LA
COUNTY COAST SATURDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION
STRONG UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND A DIRTY RIDGE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY N OF POINT CONCEPTION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WINDS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN PRETTY
NEUTRAL. THAT BEING SAID...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
WARMING UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 80 BY WED/THU. HAVE ADDED SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME AND ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THE UPPER RIDGE CAN BREAK DOWN THEN THAT COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE
STORM TRACK TO STEER FARTHER SOUTH POSSIBLY GIVING US MORE PRECIP
AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...30/1045Z...

AT 0910Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX...WITH THE
INVERSION TOP AT 1100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. UPPER LOW SPINNING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS LOS ANGELES
COUNTY...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE ONLY ISSUE
THIS MORNING IS ANTICIPATED TO BE KPRB WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF VLIFR
CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.
LATE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 KNOTS
DEVELOPING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...30/215 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
ONLY LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A 30%
CHANCE OF NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY NEAR SHORE
FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 301050
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY SINCE LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ANEMIC. WELL BELOW A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERYWHERE. THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF
THE SAN DIEGO COAST WILL BECOME MORE ELONGATED AND STRETCH MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF....WITH THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION LIKELY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY.

AS FAR AS ADDITIONAL PRECIP...THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
OVER LA COUNTY AND THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA COUNTY TODAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BEARISH. THE
MID AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE
UPPER LOW SCOOTS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. THE NORTHEASTERLY WRAP AROUND
FLOW WILL BENEFIT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...WHILE
THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OR RAINSHADOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL
AREAS WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES. WILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE COAST AND VALLEYS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
SHOULD SEE MORE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY AND EASTERN SAN GABRIEL MTNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN OVER 7000 FT TODAY...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO 6500 FT
EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY SNOWFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT A FEW INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FOR AREAS N OF
VENTURA COUNTY...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY
TONIGHT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
BY LATE SAT MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
ACROSS LA/VTU MTNS AND WIND PRONE LA/VTU COUNTY PASSES AND CANYONS
AND ACROSS THE OXNARD PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. BUT WILL
BE CLOSE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL BE A LIMITED WINDOW OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A WARM UP ON SATURDAY BUT
MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS DUE
TO OFFSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN OVER BAJA WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY ACROSS
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS INTO THE MID 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS ISSUES...EXCEPT FOR LA
COUNTY COAST SATURDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION
STRONG UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND A DIRTY RIDGE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY N OF POINT CONCEPTION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WINDS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN PRETTY
NEUTRAL. THAT BEING SAID...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
WARMING UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 80 BY WED/THU. HAVE ADDED SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME AND ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THE UPPER RIDGE CAN BREAK DOWN THEN THAT COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE
STORM TRACK TO STEER FARTHER SOUTH POSSIBLY GIVING US MORE PRECIP
AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...30/1045Z...

AT 0910Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX...WITH THE
INVERSION TOP AT 1100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. UPPER LOW SPINNING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS LOS ANGELES
COUNTY...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE ONLY ISSUE
THIS MORNING IS ANTICIPATED TO BE KPRB WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF VLIFR
CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.
LATE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 KNOTS
DEVELOPING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...30/215 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
ONLY LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A 30%
CHANCE OF NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY NEAR SHORE
FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 300421
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
820 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OFF
OF BAJA INTO CA WAS CONTINUING TO STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING BY WAY OF MID AND HI CLOUDS. THE CLOUDINESS WAS
CONFINED MAINLY TO VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. RADAR WAS
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY AS WELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SALINAS RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES THIS
EVENING TO ADD LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO L.A. COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER TROF WILL STRENGTHEN INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN CA
ON FRI...THEN MOVE VERY LITTLE FRI NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ON SAT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN CA. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA BY SUN MORNING. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERALL CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF L.A.
COUNTY ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ON THE N
SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIELS SAT MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURS...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCH...ALTHO
MOST AREAS SHOULD LESS THAN 0.05 INCH. ANY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS GENERALLY ABOVE 7000 FEET AND BE VERY
LIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL FRI INTO
SAT MORNING FOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR
ALL AREAS BY LATER SAT AND CONTINUE THRU SUN. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE FRI MORNING...THEN INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SOME GUSTS IN THE L.A./VTU COUNTY
MTNS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ON FRI...THEN WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS BY
SUN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
(ESPECIALLY FOR JANUARY) WILL SETTLE OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK
AND REMAIN THERE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE NORMAL.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE AROUND NEUTRAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS TO MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...30/0010Z.

AT 2305Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX...WITH THE
INVERSION TOP AT 800 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
AT KPRB...WHERE THERE IS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MAINLY MID AND HI CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
AIRFIELDS THRU FRI. PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING AT KSBP...KLAX AND KLGB. IN ADDITION...LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR CIGS SHOULD AFFECT KLAX AND KLGB ON FRI...WITH
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY MID AND HI CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI MORNING. A PERIOD OF
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. THERE IS
ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY MID
AND HI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...29/800 PM.

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WHILE WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOME FRIDAY MORNING
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A BUILDING
LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

INNER WATERS...FROM BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU...NE WINDS 10 TO 20
KT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND 20 TO 25 KT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/KITTELL
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 300014 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
415 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
MIXED BAG OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY...BUT GENERALLY UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING. A SOLID
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT MAY SHIFT
SUCH THAT SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL SEE A DECREASE. A COASTAL EDDY
SHOULD FORM OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES TONIGHT. WHILE
THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMATTERING OF LOW CLOUDS...CANNOT SEE A SOLID
STRATUS DECK FORMING SINCE THERE IS NO INVERSION TO SPEAK OF. THE
SLO INTERIOR VALLEYS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN NOT FOR A RETURN OF
DENSE FOG.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL PUSH INTO YUMA ARIZONA TOMORROW AND SETTLE THERE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW AT MID-LEVELS ON FRIDAY. WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY OVER LOS ANGELES
COUNTY. SINCE THE FLOW IS NORTHEASTERLY...THE BACKSIDE OF THE SAN
GABRIEL RANGE...INCLUDING THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOOTHILLS...HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOS ANGELES METRO AREA COULD SEE A LIGHT
SHOWER OR TWO DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAIN...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH
DOWNSLOPING DESCENDING FLOW ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF THE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING A COOLER AIRMASS...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BATTLE AGAINST
IT. BEST BET IS GENERAL COOLING...BUT LESS SO NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS.

THE TROUGH PUSHES DUE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING A
WINDOW OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN MORE
OFFSHORE AND THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN EXPERIENCES NORTHEAST FLOW. AT
THIS POINT...LOW END ADVISORIES LOOK PROBABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE LA
MOUNTAINS. SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL ALSO SEE SOME NORTHEAST
FLOW...BUT OF A MUCH WEAKER VARIETY. MEANWHILE AS THE TROUGH GOES TO
THE SOUTH...A RIDGE ALOFT NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALL
ADD UP TO A WARM WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AS
THE SUPER BOWL CHEERS FILL THE AIR.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (ESPECIALLY FOR JANUARY)
WILL SETTLE OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN THERE FOR MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREDOMINATELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE NORMAL. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE AROUND
NEUTRAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS TO
MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...30/0010Z.

AT 2305Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX...WITH THE
INVERSION TOP AT 800 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
AT KPRB...WHERE THERE IS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MAINLY MID AND HI CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
AIRFIELDS THRU FRI. PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING AT KSBP...KLAX AND KLGB. IN ADDITION...LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR CIGS SHOULD AFFECT KLAX AND KLGB ON FRI...WITH
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY MID AND HI CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI MORNING. A PERIOD OF
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. THERE IS
ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY MID
AND HI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...29/200 PM.

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL NOT REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

INNER WATERS...FROM BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU...LOCAL NE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 300014 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
415 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
MIXED BAG OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY...BUT GENERALLY UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING. A SOLID
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT MAY SHIFT
SUCH THAT SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL SEE A DECREASE. A COASTAL EDDY
SHOULD FORM OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES TONIGHT. WHILE
THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMATTERING OF LOW CLOUDS...CANNOT SEE A SOLID
STRATUS DECK FORMING SINCE THERE IS NO INVERSION TO SPEAK OF. THE
SLO INTERIOR VALLEYS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN NOT FOR A RETURN OF
DENSE FOG.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL PUSH INTO YUMA ARIZONA TOMORROW AND SETTLE THERE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW AT MID-LEVELS ON FRIDAY. WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY OVER LOS ANGELES
COUNTY. SINCE THE FLOW IS NORTHEASTERLY...THE BACKSIDE OF THE SAN
GABRIEL RANGE...INCLUDING THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOOTHILLS...HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOS ANGELES METRO AREA COULD SEE A LIGHT
SHOWER OR TWO DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAIN...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH
DOWNSLOPING DESCENDING FLOW ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF THE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING A COOLER AIRMASS...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BATTLE AGAINST
IT. BEST BET IS GENERAL COOLING...BUT LESS SO NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS.

THE TROUGH PUSHES DUE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING A
WINDOW OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN MORE
OFFSHORE AND THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN EXPERIENCES NORTHEAST FLOW. AT
THIS POINT...LOW END ADVISORIES LOOK PROBABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE LA
MOUNTAINS. SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL ALSO SEE SOME NORTHEAST
FLOW...BUT OF A MUCH WEAKER VARIETY. MEANWHILE AS THE TROUGH GOES TO
THE SOUTH...A RIDGE ALOFT NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALL
ADD UP TO A WARM WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AS
THE SUPER BOWL CHEERS FILL THE AIR.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (ESPECIALLY FOR JANUARY)
WILL SETTLE OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN THERE FOR MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREDOMINATELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE NORMAL. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE AROUND
NEUTRAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS TO
MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...30/0010Z.

AT 2305Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX...WITH THE
INVERSION TOP AT 800 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
AT KPRB...WHERE THERE IS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MAINLY MID AND HI CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
AIRFIELDS THRU FRI. PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING AT KSBP...KLAX AND KLGB. IN ADDITION...LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR CIGS SHOULD AFFECT KLAX AND KLGB ON FRI...WITH
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY MID AND HI CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI MORNING. A PERIOD OF
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. THERE IS
ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY MID
AND HI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...29/200 PM.

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL NOT REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

INNER WATERS...FROM BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU...LOCAL NE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 292131
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
MIXED BAG OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY...BUT GENERALLY UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING. A SOLID
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT MAY SHIFT
SUCH THAT SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL SEE A DECREASE. A COASTAL EDDY
SHOULD FORM OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES TONIGHT. WHILE
THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMATTERING OF LOW CLOUDS...CANNOT SEE A SOLID
STRATUS DECK FORMING SINCE THERE IS NO INVERSION TO SPEAK OF. THE
SLO INTERIOR VALLEYS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN NOT FOR A RETURN OF
DENSE FOG.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL PUSH INTO YUMA ARIZONA TOMORROW AND SETTLE THERE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW AT MID-LEVELS ON FRIDAY. WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY OVER LOS ANGELES
COUNTY. SINCE THE FLOW IS NORTHEASTERLY...THE BACKSIDE OF THE SAN
GABRIEL RANGE...INCLUDING THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOOTHILLS...HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOS ANGELES METRO AREA COULD SEE A LIGHT
SHOWER OR TWO DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAIN...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH
DOWNSLOPING DESCENDING FLOW ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF THE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING A COOLER AIRMASS...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BATTLE AGAINST
IT. BEST BET IS GENERAL COOLING...BUT LESS SO NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS.

THE TROUGH PUSHES DUE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING A
WINDOW OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN MORE
OFFSHORE AND THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN EXPERIENCES NORTHEAST FLOW. AT
THIS POINT...LOW END ADVISORIES LOOK PROBABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE LA
MOUNTAINS. SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL ALSO SEE SOME NORTHEAST
FLOW...BUT OF A MUCH WEAKER VARIETY. MEANWHILE AS THE TROUGH GOES TO
THE SOUTH...A RIDGE ALOFT NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALL
ADD UP TO A WARM WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AS
THE SUPER BOWL CHEERS FILL THE AIR.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (ESPECIALLY FOR JANUARY)
WILL SETTLE OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN THERE FOR MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREDOMINATELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE NORMAL. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE AROUND
NEUTRAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS TO
MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1800Z.

AT 1737Z...THERE IS NO INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR KPRB
WHERE DENSE FOG WILL MAKE ANOTHER LATE NIGHT VISIT. GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE 18Z FORECASTS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...29/200 PM.

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL NOT REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

INNER WATERS...FROM BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU...LOCAL NE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 292131
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
MIXED BAG OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY...BUT GENERALLY UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING. A SOLID
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT MAY SHIFT
SUCH THAT SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL SEE A DECREASE. A COASTAL EDDY
SHOULD FORM OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES TONIGHT. WHILE
THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMATTERING OF LOW CLOUDS...CANNOT SEE A SOLID
STRATUS DECK FORMING SINCE THERE IS NO INVERSION TO SPEAK OF. THE
SLO INTERIOR VALLEYS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN NOT FOR A RETURN OF
DENSE FOG.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL PUSH INTO YUMA ARIZONA TOMORROW AND SETTLE THERE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW AT MID-LEVELS ON FRIDAY. WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY OVER LOS ANGELES
COUNTY. SINCE THE FLOW IS NORTHEASTERLY...THE BACKSIDE OF THE SAN
GABRIEL RANGE...INCLUDING THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOOTHILLS...HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOS ANGELES METRO AREA COULD SEE A LIGHT
SHOWER OR TWO DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAIN...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH
DOWNSLOPING DESCENDING FLOW ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF THE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING A COOLER AIRMASS...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BATTLE AGAINST
IT. BEST BET IS GENERAL COOLING...BUT LESS SO NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS.

THE TROUGH PUSHES DUE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING A
WINDOW OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN MORE
OFFSHORE AND THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN EXPERIENCES NORTHEAST FLOW. AT
THIS POINT...LOW END ADVISORIES LOOK PROBABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE LA
MOUNTAINS. SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL ALSO SEE SOME NORTHEAST
FLOW...BUT OF A MUCH WEAKER VARIETY. MEANWHILE AS THE TROUGH GOES TO
THE SOUTH...A RIDGE ALOFT NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALL
ADD UP TO A WARM WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AS
THE SUPER BOWL CHEERS FILL THE AIR.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (ESPECIALLY FOR JANUARY)
WILL SETTLE OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN THERE FOR MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREDOMINATELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE NORMAL. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE AROUND
NEUTRAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS TO
MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1800Z.

AT 1737Z...THERE IS NO INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR KPRB
WHERE DENSE FOG WILL MAKE ANOTHER LATE NIGHT VISIT. GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE 18Z FORECASTS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...29/200 PM.

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL NOT REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

INNER WATERS...FROM BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU...LOCAL NE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 292121
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
MIXED BAG OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY...BUT GENERALLY UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING. A SOLID
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT MAY SHIFT
SUCH THAT SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL SEE A DECREASE. A COASTAL EDDY
SHOULD FORM OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES TONIGHT. WHILE
THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMATTERING OF LOW CLOUDS...CANNOT SEE A SOLID
STRATUS DECK FORMING SINCE THERE IS NO INVERSION TO SPEAK OF. THE
SLO INTERIOR VALLEYS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN NOT FOR A RETURN OF
DENSE FOG.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL PUSH INTO YUMA ARIZONA TOMORROW AND SETTLE THERE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW AT MID-LEVELS ON FRIDAY. WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY OVER LOS ANGELES
COUNTY. SINCE THE FLOW IS NORTHEASTERLY...THE BACKSIDE OF THE SAN
GABRIEL RANGE...INCLUDING THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOOTHILLS...HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOS ANGELES METRO AREA COULD SEE A LIGHT
SHOWER OR TWO DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAIN...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH
DOWNSLOPING DESCENDING FLOW ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF THE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING A COOLER AIRMASS...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BATTLE AGAINST
IT. BEST BET IS GENERAL COOLING...BUT LESS SO NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS.

THE TROUGH PUSHES DUE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING A
WINDOW OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN MORE
OFFSHORE AND THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN EXPERIENCES NORTHEAST FLOW. AT
THIS POINT...LOW END ADVISORIES LOOK PROBABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE LA
MOUNTAINS. SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL ALSO SEE SOME NORTHEAST
FLOW...BUT OF A MUCH WEAKER VARIETY. MEANWHILE AS THE TROUGH GOES TO
THE SOUTH...A RIDGE ALOFT NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALL
ADD UP TO A WARM WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AS
THE SUPER BOWL CHEERS FILL THE AIR.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (ESPECIALLY FOR JANUARY)
WILL SETTLE OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN THERE FOR MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREDOMINATELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE NORMAL. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE AROUND
NEUTRAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS TO
MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1800Z.

AT 1737Z...THERE IS NO INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR KPRB
WHERE DENSE FOG WILL MAKE ANOTHER LATE NIGHT VISIT. GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE 18Z FORECASTS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...FROM BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU...LOCAL NE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 292121
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
MIXED BAG OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY...BUT GENERALLY UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING. A SOLID
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT MAY SHIFT
SUCH THAT SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL SEE A DECREASE. A COASTAL EDDY
SHOULD FORM OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES TONIGHT. WHILE
THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMATTERING OF LOW CLOUDS...CANNOT SEE A SOLID
STRATUS DECK FORMING SINCE THERE IS NO INVERSION TO SPEAK OF. THE
SLO INTERIOR VALLEYS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN NOT FOR A RETURN OF
DENSE FOG.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL PUSH INTO YUMA ARIZONA TOMORROW AND SETTLE THERE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW AT MID-LEVELS ON FRIDAY. WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY OVER LOS ANGELES
COUNTY. SINCE THE FLOW IS NORTHEASTERLY...THE BACKSIDE OF THE SAN
GABRIEL RANGE...INCLUDING THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOOTHILLS...HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOS ANGELES METRO AREA COULD SEE A LIGHT
SHOWER OR TWO DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAIN...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH
DOWNSLOPING DESCENDING FLOW ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF THE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING A COOLER AIRMASS...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BATTLE AGAINST
IT. BEST BET IS GENERAL COOLING...BUT LESS SO NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS.

THE TROUGH PUSHES DUE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING A
WINDOW OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN MORE
OFFSHORE AND THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN EXPERIENCES NORTHEAST FLOW. AT
THIS POINT...LOW END ADVISORIES LOOK PROBABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE LA
MOUNTAINS. SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL ALSO SEE SOME NORTHEAST
FLOW...BUT OF A MUCH WEAKER VARIETY. MEANWHILE AS THE TROUGH GOES TO
THE SOUTH...A RIDGE ALOFT NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALL
ADD UP TO A WARM WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AS
THE SUPER BOWL CHEERS FILL THE AIR.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (ESPECIALLY FOR JANUARY)
WILL SETTLE OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN THERE FOR MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREDOMINATELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE NORMAL. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE AROUND
NEUTRAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS TO
MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1800Z.

AT 1737Z...THERE IS NO INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR KPRB
WHERE DENSE FOG WILL MAKE ANOTHER LATE NIGHT VISIT. GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE 18Z FORECASTS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...FROM BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU...LOCAL NE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 291848
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
AMPLE HIGH CLOUDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATING THE WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING...BUT UPDATED FORECAST FOR A
FEW SMALL DETAILS. INCREASED WARMING TREND FROM YESTERDAY OVER LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...AS THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE STRONGER. COOLED TEMPERATURES SOME ON THE CENTRAL COAST AS THE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER AND TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. ADDED DENSE FOG TO THE INTERIOR SLO VALLEYS
FOR THIS MORNING.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. IT WILL BRING PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY. EVERY MDL KEEPS THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY SO TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN FOR TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW IS A
LITTLE STRONGER AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORNING CANYON WINDS BUT
NOTHING ADVISORY LEVEL. THE BIGGER EFFECT OF THE INCREASED OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL BE TO BOOST MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS BY ABOUT
3 DEGREES FROM YDY.

EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (LATE TONIGHT - YOU CHOOSE) A WEAK UPPER LOW
WILL FORM IN THE BASE OF THE TROF. THIS LOW WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF L.A. COUNTY AND ITS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF
RAIN TO L.A. COUNTY (MOSTLY ERN LA COUNTY ESP THE MTNS) THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY EVENING. IF ANY RAIN FALLS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OF
NOTE...THE 06Z RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON THE RAIN AND IF THE
12Z RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP POPS. THE CLOUDS
WILL BE THICKER AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER AND BOTH THESE
WILL COMBINE TO KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY DAWN AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HGTS WILL RISE AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO NRN CA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT
ANY CANYON WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKS SUNDAY MORNING AND THERE MIGHT BE SOME ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND GUSTS. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP 3 OR 4 DEGREES AND MAX TEMPS
WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. JUST A LITTLE LESS WINDS AND
A DEGREE COOLER.

THE RIDGE RELAXES JUST A TOUCH TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING BUT MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE MAY BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM UP.

THE GFS IS STILL TOUTING SOME RAIN WAY OUT IN EXTENDED LAND BUT
WHERE AS THE EC AGREED WITH THIS IDEA LAST NIGHT...TONIGHTS RUN
KEEPS THE RAIN TO THE NORTH. BUT THE NICE THING ABOUT DAY 10
FORECASTS IS THAT THERE IS LOTS OF TIME FOR CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1800Z.

AT 1737Z...THERE IS NO INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR KPRB
WHERE DENSE FOG WILL MAKE ANOTHER LATE NIGHT VISIT. GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE 18Z FORECASTS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...FROM BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU...LOCAL NE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 291848
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
AMPLE HIGH CLOUDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATING THE WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING...BUT UPDATED FORECAST FOR A
FEW SMALL DETAILS. INCREASED WARMING TREND FROM YESTERDAY OVER LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...AS THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE STRONGER. COOLED TEMPERATURES SOME ON THE CENTRAL COAST AS THE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER AND TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. ADDED DENSE FOG TO THE INTERIOR SLO VALLEYS
FOR THIS MORNING.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. IT WILL BRING PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY. EVERY MDL KEEPS THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY SO TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN FOR TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW IS A
LITTLE STRONGER AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORNING CANYON WINDS BUT
NOTHING ADVISORY LEVEL. THE BIGGER EFFECT OF THE INCREASED OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL BE TO BOOST MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS BY ABOUT
3 DEGREES FROM YDY.

EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (LATE TONIGHT - YOU CHOOSE) A WEAK UPPER LOW
WILL FORM IN THE BASE OF THE TROF. THIS LOW WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF L.A. COUNTY AND ITS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF
RAIN TO L.A. COUNTY (MOSTLY ERN LA COUNTY ESP THE MTNS) THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY EVENING. IF ANY RAIN FALLS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OF
NOTE...THE 06Z RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON THE RAIN AND IF THE
12Z RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP POPS. THE CLOUDS
WILL BE THICKER AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER AND BOTH THESE
WILL COMBINE TO KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY DAWN AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HGTS WILL RISE AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO NRN CA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT
ANY CANYON WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKS SUNDAY MORNING AND THERE MIGHT BE SOME ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND GUSTS. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP 3 OR 4 DEGREES AND MAX TEMPS
WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. JUST A LITTLE LESS WINDS AND
A DEGREE COOLER.

THE RIDGE RELAXES JUST A TOUCH TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING BUT MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE MAY BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM UP.

THE GFS IS STILL TOUTING SOME RAIN WAY OUT IN EXTENDED LAND BUT
WHERE AS THE EC AGREED WITH THIS IDEA LAST NIGHT...TONIGHTS RUN
KEEPS THE RAIN TO THE NORTH. BUT THE NICE THING ABOUT DAY 10
FORECASTS IS THAT THERE IS LOTS OF TIME FOR CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1800Z.

AT 1737Z...THERE IS NO INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR KPRB
WHERE DENSE FOG WILL MAKE ANOTHER LATE NIGHT VISIT. GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE 18Z FORECASTS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...FROM BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU...LOCAL NE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 291733
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
AMPLE HIGH CLOUDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATING THE WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING...BUT UPDATED FORECAST FOR A
FEW SMALL DETAILS. INCREASED WARMING TREND FROM YESTERDAY OVER LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...AS THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE STRONGER. COOLED TEMPERATURES SOME ON THE CENTRAL COAST AS THE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER AND TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. ADDED DENSE FOG TO THE INTERIOR SLO VALLEYS
FOR THIS MORNING.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. IT WILL BRING PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY. EVERY MDL KEEPS THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY SO TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN FOR TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW IS A
LITTLE STRONGER AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORNING CANYON WINDS BUT
NOTHING ADVISORY LEVEL. THE BIGGER EFFECT OF THE INCREASED OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL BE TO BOOST MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS BY ABOUT
3 DEGREES FROM YDY.

EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (LATE TONIGHT - YOU CHOOSE) A WEAK UPPER LOW
WILL FORM IN THE BASE OF THE TROF. THIS LOW WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF L.A. COUNTY AND ITS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF
RAIN TO L.A. COUNTY (MOSTLY ERN LA COUNTY ESP THE MTNS) THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY EVENING. IF ANY RAIN FALLS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OF
NOTE...THE 06Z RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON THE RAIN AND IF THE
12Z RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP POPS. THE CLOUDS
WILL BE THICKER AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER AND BOTH THESE
WILL COMBINE TO KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY DAWN AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HGTS WILL RISE AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO NRN CA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT
ANY CANYON WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKS SUNDAY MORNING AND THERE MIGHT BE SOME ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND GUSTS. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP 3 OR 4 DEGREES AND MAX TEMPS
WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. JUST A LITTLE LESS WINDS AND
A DEGREE COOLER.

THE RIDGE RELAXES JUST A TOUCH TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING BUT MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE MAY BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM UP.

THE GFS IS STILL TOUTING SOME RAIN WAY OUT IN EXTENDED LAND BUT
WHERE AS THE EC AGREED WITH THIS IDEA LAST NIGHT...TONIGHTS RUN
KEEPS THE RAIN TO THE NORTH. BUT THE NICE THING ABOUT DAY 10
FORECASTS IS THAT THERE IS LOTS OF TIME FOR CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1200Z.

AT 0445Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 12Z TAFS. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
VLIFR CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP BUT ONLY LIFR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXTENSIVE MID AND HI LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU THU EVENING.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT...ALTHO THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HI
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THU EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...29/300 AM.

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND
673 FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...FROM BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU...LOCAL NE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 291726
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
AMPLE HIGH CLOUDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATING THE WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING...BUT UPDATED FORECAST FOR A
FEW SMALL DETAILS. INCREASED WARMING TREND FROM YESTERDAY OVER LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...AS THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE STRONGER. COOLED TEMPERATURES SOME ON THE CENTRAL COAST AS THE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER AND TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. ADDED DENSE FOG TO THE INTERIOR SLO VALLEYS
FOR THIS MORNING.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. IT WILL BRING PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY. EVERY MDL KEEPS THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY SO TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN FOR TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW IS A
LITTLE STRONGER AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORNING CANYON WINDS BUT
NOTHING ADVISORY LEVEL. THE BIGGER EFFECT OF THE INCREASED OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL BE TO BOOST MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS BY ABOUT
3 DEGREES FROM YDY.

EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (LATE TONIGHT - YOU CHOOSE) A WEAK UPPER LOW
WILL FORM IN THE BASE OF THE TROF. THIS LOW WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF L.A. COUNTY AND ITS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF
RAIN TO L.A. COUNTY (MOSTLY ERN LA COUNTY ESP THE MTNS) THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY EVENING. IF ANY RAIN FALLS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OF
NOTE...THE 06Z RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON THE RAIN AND IF THE
12Z RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP POPS. THE CLOUDS
WILL BE THICKER AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER AND BOTH THESE
WILL COMBINE TO KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY DAWN AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HGTS WILL RISE AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO NRN CA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT
ANY CANYON WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKS SUNDAY MORNING AND THERE MIGHT BE SOME ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND GUSTS. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP 3 OR 4 DEGREES AND MAX TEMPS
WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. JUST A LITTLE LESS WINDS AND
A DEGREE COOLER.

THE RIDGE RELAXES JUST A TOUCH TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING BUT MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE MAY BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM UP.

THE GFS IS STILL TOUTING SOME RAIN WAY OUT IN EXTENDED LAND BUT
WHERE AS THE EC AGREED WITH THIS IDEA LAST NIGHT...TONIGHTS RUN
KEEPS THE RAIN TO THE NORTH. BUT THE NICE THING ABOUT DAY 10
FORECASTS IS THAT THERE IS LOTS OF TIME FOR CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1200Z.

AT 0445Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 12Z TAFS. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
VLIFR CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP BUT ONLY LIFR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXTENSIVE MID AND HI LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU THU EVENING.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT...ALTHO THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HI
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THU EVENING.

$$

.MARINE...29/300 AM.

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND
673 FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...FROM BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU...LOCAL NE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 291726
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
AMPLE HIGH CLOUDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATING THE WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING...BUT UPDATED FORECAST FOR A
FEW SMALL DETAILS. INCREASED WARMING TREND FROM YESTERDAY OVER LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...AS THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE STRONGER. COOLED TEMPERATURES SOME ON THE CENTRAL COAST AS THE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER AND TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. ADDED DENSE FOG TO THE INTERIOR SLO VALLEYS
FOR THIS MORNING.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. IT WILL BRING PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY. EVERY MDL KEEPS THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY SO TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN FOR TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW IS A
LITTLE STRONGER AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORNING CANYON WINDS BUT
NOTHING ADVISORY LEVEL. THE BIGGER EFFECT OF THE INCREASED OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL BE TO BOOST MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS BY ABOUT
3 DEGREES FROM YDY.

EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (LATE TONIGHT - YOU CHOOSE) A WEAK UPPER LOW
WILL FORM IN THE BASE OF THE TROF. THIS LOW WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF L.A. COUNTY AND ITS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF
RAIN TO L.A. COUNTY (MOSTLY ERN LA COUNTY ESP THE MTNS) THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY EVENING. IF ANY RAIN FALLS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OF
NOTE...THE 06Z RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON THE RAIN AND IF THE
12Z RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP POPS. THE CLOUDS
WILL BE THICKER AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER AND BOTH THESE
WILL COMBINE TO KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY DAWN AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HGTS WILL RISE AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO NRN CA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT
ANY CANYON WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKS SUNDAY MORNING AND THERE MIGHT BE SOME ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND GUSTS. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP 3 OR 4 DEGREES AND MAX TEMPS
WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. JUST A LITTLE LESS WINDS AND
A DEGREE COOLER.

THE RIDGE RELAXES JUST A TOUCH TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING BUT MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE MAY BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM UP.

THE GFS IS STILL TOUTING SOME RAIN WAY OUT IN EXTENDED LAND BUT
WHERE AS THE EC AGREED WITH THIS IDEA LAST NIGHT...TONIGHTS RUN
KEEPS THE RAIN TO THE NORTH. BUT THE NICE THING ABOUT DAY 10
FORECASTS IS THAT THERE IS LOTS OF TIME FOR CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1200Z.

AT 0445Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 12Z TAFS. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
VLIFR CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP BUT ONLY LIFR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXTENSIVE MID AND HI LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU THU EVENING.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT...ALTHO THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HI
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THU EVENING.

$$

.MARINE...29/300 AM.

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND
673 FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...FROM BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU...LOCAL NE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 291202
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
402 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY
AND FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO LOS ANGELES COUNTY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
A TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. IT WILL BRING PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY. EVERY MDL KEEPS THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY SO TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN FOR TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW IS A
LITTLE STRONGER AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORNING CANYON WINDS BUT
NOTHING ADVISORY LEVEL. THE BIGGER EFFECT OF THE INCREASED OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL BE TO BOOST MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS BY ABOUT
3 DEGREES FROM YDY.

EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (LATE TONIGHT - YOU CHOOSE) A WEAK UPPER LOW
WILL FORM IN THE BASE OF THE TROF. THIS LOW WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF L.A. COUNTY AND ITS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF
RAIN TO L.A. COUNTY (MOSTLY ERN LA COUNTY ESP THE MTNS) THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY EVENING. IF ANY RAIN FALLS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OF
NOTE...THE 06Z RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON THE RAIN AND IF THE
12Z RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP POPS. THE CLOUDS
WILL BE THICKER AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER AND BOTH THESE
WILL COMBINE TO KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY DAWN AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HGTS WILL RISE AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO NRN CA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT
ANY CANYON WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKS SUNDAY MORNING AND THERE MIGHT BE SOME ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND GUSTS. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP 3 OR 4 DEGREES AND MAX TEMPS
WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. JUST A LITTLE LESS WINDS AND
A DEGREE COOLER.

THE RIDGE RELAXES JUST A TOUCH TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING BUT MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE MAY BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM UP.

THE GFS IS STILL TOUTING SOME RAIN WAY OUT IN EXTENDED LAND BUT
WHERE AS THE EC AGREED WITH THIS IDEA LAST NIGHT...TONIGHTS RUN
KEEPS THE RAIN TO THE NORTH. BUT THE NICE THING ABOUT DAY 10
FORECASTS IS THAT THERE IS LOTS OF TIME FOR CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1200Z.

AT 0445Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 12Z TAFS. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
VLIFR CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP BUT ONLY LIFR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXTENSIVE MID AND HI LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU THU EVENING.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT...ALTHO THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HI
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THU EVENING.

$$

.MARINE...29/300 AM.

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND
673 FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...FROM BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU...LOCAL NE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 291202
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
402 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY
AND FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO LOS ANGELES COUNTY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
A TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. IT WILL BRING PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY. EVERY MDL KEEPS THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY SO TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN FOR TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW IS A
LITTLE STRONGER AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORNING CANYON WINDS BUT
NOTHING ADVISORY LEVEL. THE BIGGER EFFECT OF THE INCREASED OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL BE TO BOOST MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS BY ABOUT
3 DEGREES FROM YDY.

EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (LATE TONIGHT - YOU CHOOSE) A WEAK UPPER LOW
WILL FORM IN THE BASE OF THE TROF. THIS LOW WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF L.A. COUNTY AND ITS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF
RAIN TO L.A. COUNTY (MOSTLY ERN LA COUNTY ESP THE MTNS) THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY EVENING. IF ANY RAIN FALLS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OF
NOTE...THE 06Z RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON THE RAIN AND IF THE
12Z RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP POPS. THE CLOUDS
WILL BE THICKER AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER AND BOTH THESE
WILL COMBINE TO KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY DAWN AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HGTS WILL RISE AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO NRN CA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT
ANY CANYON WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKS SUNDAY MORNING AND THERE MIGHT BE SOME ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND GUSTS. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP 3 OR 4 DEGREES AND MAX TEMPS
WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. JUST A LITTLE LESS WINDS AND
A DEGREE COOLER.

THE RIDGE RELAXES JUST A TOUCH TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING BUT MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE MAY BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM UP.

THE GFS IS STILL TOUTING SOME RAIN WAY OUT IN EXTENDED LAND BUT
WHERE AS THE EC AGREED WITH THIS IDEA LAST NIGHT...TONIGHTS RUN
KEEPS THE RAIN TO THE NORTH. BUT THE NICE THING ABOUT DAY 10
FORECASTS IS THAT THERE IS LOTS OF TIME FOR CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1200Z.

AT 0445Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 12Z TAFS. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
VLIFR CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP BUT ONLY LIFR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXTENSIVE MID AND HI LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU THU EVENING.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT...ALTHO THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HI
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THU EVENING.

$$

.MARINE...29/300 AM.

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND
673 FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...FROM BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU...LOCAL NE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 291141
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY
AND FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO LOS ANGELES COUNTY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
A TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. IT WILL BRING PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY. EVERY MDL KEEPS THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY SO TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN FOR TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW IS A
LITTLE STRONGER AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORNING CANYON WINDS BUT
NOTHING ADVISORY LEVEL. THE BIGGER EFFECT OF THE INCREASED OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL BE TO BOOST MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS BY ABOUT
3 DEGREES FROM YDY.

EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (LATE TONIGHT - YOU CHOOSE) A WEAK UPPER LOW
WILL FORM IN THE BASE OF THE TROF. THIS LOW WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF L.A. COUNTY AND ITS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF
RAIN TO L.A. COUNTY (MOSTLY ERN LA COUNTY ESP THE MTNS) THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY EVENING. IF ANY RAIN FALLS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OF
NOTE...THE 06Z RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON THE RAIN AND IF THE
12Z RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP POPS. THE CLOUDS
WILL BE THICKER AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER AND BOTH THESE
WILL COMBINE TO KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY DAWN AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HGTS WILL RISE AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO NRN CA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT
ANY CANYON WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKS SUNDAY MORNING AND THERE MIGHT BE SOME ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND GUSTS. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP 3 OR 4 DEGREES AND MAX TEMPS
WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. JUST A LITTLE LESS WINDS AND
A DEGREE COOLER.

THE RIDGE RELAXES JUST A TOUCH TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING BUT MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE MAY BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM UP.

THE GFS IS STILL TOUTING SOME RAIN WAY OUT IN EXTENDED LAND BUT
WHERE AS THE EC AGREED WITH THIS IDEA LAST NIGHT...TONIGHTS RUN
KEEPS THE RAIN TO THE NORTH. BUT THE NICE THING ABOUT DAY 10
FORECASTS IS THAT THERE IS LOTS OF TIME FOR CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0550Z.

AT 0445Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAFS...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
AT KPRB...WHERE THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXTENSIVE
MID AND HI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU THU
EVENING.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THU NIGHT...ALTHO THERE IS A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS AFT 08Z THU NIGHT.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HI
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THU EVENING.

$$


.MARINE...29/300 AM.

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND
673 FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...FROM BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU...LOCAL NE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 291141
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY
AND FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO LOS ANGELES COUNTY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
A TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. IT WILL BRING PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY. EVERY MDL KEEPS THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY SO TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN FOR TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW IS A
LITTLE STRONGER AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORNING CANYON WINDS BUT
NOTHING ADVISORY LEVEL. THE BIGGER EFFECT OF THE INCREASED OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL BE TO BOOST MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS BY ABOUT
3 DEGREES FROM YDY.

EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (LATE TONIGHT - YOU CHOOSE) A WEAK UPPER LOW
WILL FORM IN THE BASE OF THE TROF. THIS LOW WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF L.A. COUNTY AND ITS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF
RAIN TO L.A. COUNTY (MOSTLY ERN LA COUNTY ESP THE MTNS) THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY EVENING. IF ANY RAIN FALLS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OF
NOTE...THE 06Z RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON THE RAIN AND IF THE
12Z RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP POPS. THE CLOUDS
WILL BE THICKER AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER AND BOTH THESE
WILL COMBINE TO KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY DAWN AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HGTS WILL RISE AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO NRN CA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT
ANY CANYON WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKS SUNDAY MORNING AND THERE MIGHT BE SOME ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND GUSTS. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP 3 OR 4 DEGREES AND MAX TEMPS
WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. JUST A LITTLE LESS WINDS AND
A DEGREE COOLER.

THE RIDGE RELAXES JUST A TOUCH TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING BUT MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE MAY BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM UP.

THE GFS IS STILL TOUTING SOME RAIN WAY OUT IN EXTENDED LAND BUT
WHERE AS THE EC AGREED WITH THIS IDEA LAST NIGHT...TONIGHTS RUN
KEEPS THE RAIN TO THE NORTH. BUT THE NICE THING ABOUT DAY 10
FORECASTS IS THAT THERE IS LOTS OF TIME FOR CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0550Z.

AT 0445Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAFS...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
AT KPRB...WHERE THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXTENSIVE
MID AND HI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU THU
EVENING.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THU NIGHT...ALTHO THERE IS A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS AFT 08Z THU NIGHT.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HI
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THU EVENING.

$$


.MARINE...29/300 AM.

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND
673 FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...FROM BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU...LOCAL NE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






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