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000
FXUS66 KLOX 250330 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING A
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS
WEEKEND. ANY NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MAINLY
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO THE NORTH
PROVIDED SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
OF THE HOT SPOTS TODAY INCLUDED ACTON AT 108 DEGREES...PALMDALE AT
107 DEGREES...LANCASTER AND SAUGUS AT 106 DEGREES...AS WELL AS CHATSWORTH
AND WOODLAND HILLS AT 105 DEGREES. IN EVENING UPDATE...HAVE BUMPED UP
WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FOR SBA SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING WHERE LOCALIZED
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SBA-SMX GRADIENT HAS CLIMBED
UP TO -4.2 MB BUT UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT IS RATHER MINIMAL. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND POINT CONCEPTION COMBINED WITH ONSHORE TRENDS WILL HELP TO SPIN
UP AN EDDY CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING OFF THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM LATER TONIGHT.
AT THIS POINT...THINKING THAT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MOSTLY AFFECT
COASTAL AREAS OF ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...HOWEVER THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT IT COULD SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO THE LA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS BY MORNING. WITH ACARS DATA
SHOWING A LOW AND STRONG MARINE INVERSION (CURRENTLY AROUND 600 FEET
DEEP)...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION ANYWHERE
CLOUDS DO FORM. HIGHER PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG FORMING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIRLY GOOD SURGE OF MID LEVEL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN BAJA AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY
THIS EVENING. LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE PRETTY GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ADVECTS IT NORTHWARD TOWARDS LOS ANGELES
COUNTY ON FRIDAY. IN EVENING UPDATE...HAVE INCLUDED PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR LA COUNTY ON FRIDAY DUE TO THIS INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A GOOD INVERTED-V STRUCTURE OVER THE LA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS (GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS)...THERE
IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW
GRADE POPS (IN 5-10 PERCENT RANGE OVER LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS)...BUT PROBABLY
WILL JUST SEE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION...STRENGTHENING ONSHORE
FLOW...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BRING SOME COOLING TO MUCH
OF THE REGION TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...STILL VERY WARM CONDITIONS WITH WARMEST VALLEYS LIKELY
CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THE LOWER MOUNTAINS
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS AGAIN
ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THESE AREAS WILL BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM
TODAY`S READINGS.

PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS TOMORROW.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING THE NAM INCREASES THE MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO LONG BEACH
SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD IN THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY FOR SOME MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FROM
FRIDAY`S HIGHS...MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER DEPENDING ON HIGH CLOUD
COVER.

STILL ENOUGH OF A THREAT...ALTHOUGH MINIMAL...TO LEAVE THE GOING TRW
CHANCES ON SUNDAY UNCHANGED. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT GREAT...BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HINTS AT A
KICKER ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE HIGH TO CONTINUE WITH THE GOING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT AT ALL A SLAMDUNK AT
THIS POINT...HOWEVER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH THE SAME AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL FOR NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS
GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT
THAT IMPRESSED WITH MODEL FORECASTS OF THE MARINE LAYER NEXT WEEK
BUT KEPT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. MODELS KEEPING MOST OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND NORMAL TO JUST BELOW COASTAL
AREAS...AND ABOVE NORMAL FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...24/2345Z...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DISTRICT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PROBABILITY OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
AT KSMX TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING CIGS AT KLAX...KLGB...AND KOXR.
 ACARS DATA SHOWING MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 600 FEET ACROSS LA
BASIN. IF ANY CIGS WERE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THESE OTHER COASTAL
SITES...THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR/VLIFR DUE TO
SHALLOW AND STRONG MARINE INVERSION.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
CIGS TO KLAX. IF A CIG WERE TO DEVELOP...THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHALLOW AND STRONG MARINE
INVERSION.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...24/830 PM.

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AROUND
POINT CONCEPTION. FOR THE INNER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...24/830 PM.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO COMBINATION OF GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES. ONSHORE WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS...AND DESERTS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH
ACROSS THE FAVORED FOOTHILLS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...MANY OF
THESE SAME AREAS WILL SEE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SINGLE DIGIT READINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. WHILE BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL
NOT BE A SUFFICIENTLY LONG DURATION TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&


.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/JACKSON
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...HALL
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 250330 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING A
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS
WEEKEND. ANY NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MAINLY
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO THE NORTH
PROVIDED SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
OF THE HOT SPOTS TODAY INCLUDED ACTON AT 108 DEGREES...PALMDALE AT
107 DEGREES...LANCASTER AND SAUGUS AT 106 DEGREES...AS WELL AS CHATSWORTH
AND WOODLAND HILLS AT 105 DEGREES. IN EVENING UPDATE...HAVE BUMPED UP
WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FOR SBA SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING WHERE LOCALIZED
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SBA-SMX GRADIENT HAS CLIMBED
UP TO -4.2 MB BUT UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT IS RATHER MINIMAL. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND POINT CONCEPTION COMBINED WITH ONSHORE TRENDS WILL HELP TO SPIN
UP AN EDDY CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING OFF THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM LATER TONIGHT.
AT THIS POINT...THINKING THAT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MOSTLY AFFECT
COASTAL AREAS OF ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...HOWEVER THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT IT COULD SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO THE LA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS BY MORNING. WITH ACARS DATA
SHOWING A LOW AND STRONG MARINE INVERSION (CURRENTLY AROUND 600 FEET
DEEP)...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION ANYWHERE
CLOUDS DO FORM. HIGHER PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG FORMING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIRLY GOOD SURGE OF MID LEVEL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN BAJA AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY
THIS EVENING. LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE PRETTY GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ADVECTS IT NORTHWARD TOWARDS LOS ANGELES
COUNTY ON FRIDAY. IN EVENING UPDATE...HAVE INCLUDED PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR LA COUNTY ON FRIDAY DUE TO THIS INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A GOOD INVERTED-V STRUCTURE OVER THE LA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS (GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS)...THERE
IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW
GRADE POPS (IN 5-10 PERCENT RANGE OVER LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS)...BUT PROBABLY
WILL JUST SEE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION...STRENGTHENING ONSHORE
FLOW...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BRING SOME COOLING TO MUCH
OF THE REGION TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...STILL VERY WARM CONDITIONS WITH WARMEST VALLEYS LIKELY
CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THE LOWER MOUNTAINS
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS AGAIN
ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THESE AREAS WILL BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM
TODAY`S READINGS.

PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS TOMORROW.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING THE NAM INCREASES THE MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO LONG BEACH
SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD IN THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY FOR SOME MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FROM
FRIDAY`S HIGHS...MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER DEPENDING ON HIGH CLOUD
COVER.

STILL ENOUGH OF A THREAT...ALTHOUGH MINIMAL...TO LEAVE THE GOING TRW
CHANCES ON SUNDAY UNCHANGED. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT GREAT...BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HINTS AT A
KICKER ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE HIGH TO CONTINUE WITH THE GOING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT AT ALL A SLAMDUNK AT
THIS POINT...HOWEVER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH THE SAME AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL FOR NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS
GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT
THAT IMPRESSED WITH MODEL FORECASTS OF THE MARINE LAYER NEXT WEEK
BUT KEPT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. MODELS KEEPING MOST OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND NORMAL TO JUST BELOW COASTAL
AREAS...AND ABOVE NORMAL FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...24/2345Z...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DISTRICT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PROBABILITY OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
AT KSMX TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING CIGS AT KLAX...KLGB...AND KOXR.
 ACARS DATA SHOWING MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 600 FEET ACROSS LA
BASIN. IF ANY CIGS WERE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THESE OTHER COASTAL
SITES...THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR/VLIFR DUE TO
SHALLOW AND STRONG MARINE INVERSION.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
CIGS TO KLAX. IF A CIG WERE TO DEVELOP...THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHALLOW AND STRONG MARINE
INVERSION.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...24/830 PM.

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AROUND
POINT CONCEPTION. FOR THE INNER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...24/830 PM.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO COMBINATION OF GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES. ONSHORE WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS...AND DESERTS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH
ACROSS THE FAVORED FOOTHILLS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...MANY OF
THESE SAME AREAS WILL SEE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SINGLE DIGIT READINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. WHILE BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL
NOT BE A SUFFICIENTLY LONG DURATION TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&


.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/JACKSON
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...HALL
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 242354 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. AS
A RESULT...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE ALONG MAINLY
THE CENTRAL COAST EACH NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-SAT)...AFTERNOON WEATHER HAS BEHAVED PRETTY WELL SO
FAR TODAY. LOOKS LIKE WOODLAND HILLS IS THE WINNER SO FAR WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 104. PLENTY OF OTHER READINGS AT OR JUST ABOVE 100 IN
THE VALLEYS AND AV...WHILE COASTAL AREAS ALSO ABOVE NORMAL. THE
LAX-DAG ONSHORE GRADIENT IS ONLY WEAKLY ONSHORE BUT ENOUGH TO GET
SOME SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN
CHECK FOR THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE DOWNTOWN LA HAS REACHED ITS MAX OF 91
AND IS NOW COOLING DOWN A BIT IN A WEAK SEA BREEZE. ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST...SOME VERY SMALL AREAS OF STRATUS HAS FORMED RIGHT
ALONG SOME OF THE BEACHES...A DECENT INDICATOR THAT THE FORECAST FOR
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT IS ON TRACK FOR THE SBA
COUNTY CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE THE ONLY HAPPENINGS OF NOTE WILL BE
THE BELOW ADVISORY SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG THE
SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST...BUT EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN LAST
NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN CHARGE OF THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTS EAST A BIT
TOMORROW TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL COOL OUR
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
COASTAL AREAS MAY ACTUALLY DIP TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. MODELS HINT
AT A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION BUT DID NOT BITE OFF ON THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE LA COUNTY COAST JUST YET. THEN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING THE NAM INCREASES THE MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO LONG BEACH
SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD IN THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY FOR SOME MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FROM
FRIDAY`S HIGHS...MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER DEPENDING ON HIGH CLOUD
COVER.

STILL ENOUGH OF A THREAT...ALTHOUGH MINIMAL...TO LEAVE THE GOING TRW
CHANCES ON SUNDAY UNCHANGED. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT GREAT...BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HINTS AT A
KICKER ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE HIGH TO CONTINUE WITH THE GOING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT AT ALL A SLAMDUNK AT
THIS POINT...HOWEVER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH THE SAME AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL FOR NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS
GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT
THAT IMPRESSED WITH MODEL FORECASTS OF THE MARINE LAYER NEXT WEEK
BUT KEPT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. MODELS KEEPING MOST OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND NORMAL TO JUST BELOW COASTAL
AREAS...AND ABOVE NORMAL FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...24/2345Z...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DISTRICT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PROBABILITY OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
AT KSMX TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING CIGS AT KLAX...KLGB...AND KOXR.
 ACARS DATA SHOWING MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 600 FEET ACROSS LA
BASIN. IF ANY CIGS WERE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THESE OTHER COASTAL
SITES...THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR/VLIFR DUE TO
SHALLOW AND STRONG MARINE INVERSION.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
CIGS TO KLAX. IF A CIG WERE TO DEVELOP...THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHALLOW AND STRONG MARINE
INVERSION.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...24/230 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT AROUND
POINT CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 242354 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. AS
A RESULT...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE ALONG MAINLY
THE CENTRAL COAST EACH NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-SAT)...AFTERNOON WEATHER HAS BEHAVED PRETTY WELL SO
FAR TODAY. LOOKS LIKE WOODLAND HILLS IS THE WINNER SO FAR WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 104. PLENTY OF OTHER READINGS AT OR JUST ABOVE 100 IN
THE VALLEYS AND AV...WHILE COASTAL AREAS ALSO ABOVE NORMAL. THE
LAX-DAG ONSHORE GRADIENT IS ONLY WEAKLY ONSHORE BUT ENOUGH TO GET
SOME SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN
CHECK FOR THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE DOWNTOWN LA HAS REACHED ITS MAX OF 91
AND IS NOW COOLING DOWN A BIT IN A WEAK SEA BREEZE. ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST...SOME VERY SMALL AREAS OF STRATUS HAS FORMED RIGHT
ALONG SOME OF THE BEACHES...A DECENT INDICATOR THAT THE FORECAST FOR
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT IS ON TRACK FOR THE SBA
COUNTY CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE THE ONLY HAPPENINGS OF NOTE WILL BE
THE BELOW ADVISORY SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG THE
SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST...BUT EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN LAST
NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN CHARGE OF THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTS EAST A BIT
TOMORROW TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL COOL OUR
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
COASTAL AREAS MAY ACTUALLY DIP TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. MODELS HINT
AT A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION BUT DID NOT BITE OFF ON THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE LA COUNTY COAST JUST YET. THEN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING THE NAM INCREASES THE MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO LONG BEACH
SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD IN THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY FOR SOME MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FROM
FRIDAY`S HIGHS...MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER DEPENDING ON HIGH CLOUD
COVER.

STILL ENOUGH OF A THREAT...ALTHOUGH MINIMAL...TO LEAVE THE GOING TRW
CHANCES ON SUNDAY UNCHANGED. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT GREAT...BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HINTS AT A
KICKER ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE HIGH TO CONTINUE WITH THE GOING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT AT ALL A SLAMDUNK AT
THIS POINT...HOWEVER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH THE SAME AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL FOR NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS
GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT
THAT IMPRESSED WITH MODEL FORECASTS OF THE MARINE LAYER NEXT WEEK
BUT KEPT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. MODELS KEEPING MOST OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND NORMAL TO JUST BELOW COASTAL
AREAS...AND ABOVE NORMAL FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...24/2345Z...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DISTRICT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PROBABILITY OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
AT KSMX TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING CIGS AT KLAX...KLGB...AND KOXR.
 ACARS DATA SHOWING MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 600 FEET ACROSS LA
BASIN. IF ANY CIGS WERE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THESE OTHER COASTAL
SITES...THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR/VLIFR DUE TO
SHALLOW AND STRONG MARINE INVERSION.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
CIGS TO KLAX. IF A CIG WERE TO DEVELOP...THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHALLOW AND STRONG MARINE
INVERSION.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...24/230 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT AROUND
POINT CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 242122 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

...MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. AS
A RESULT...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE ALONG MAINLY
THE CENTRAL COAST EACH NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-SAT)...AFTERNOON WEATHER HAS BEHAVED PRETTY WELL SO
FAR TODAY. LOOKS LIKE WOODLAND HILLS IS THE WINNER SO FAR WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 104. PLENTY OF OTHER READINGS AT OR JUST ABOVE 100 IN
THE VALLEYS AND AV...WHILE COASTAL AREAS ALSO ABOVE NORMAL. THE
LAX-DAG ONSHORE GRADIENT IS ONLY WEAKLY ONSHORE BUT ENOUGH TO GET
SOME SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN
CHECK FOR THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE DOWNTOWN LA HAS REACHED ITS MAX OF 91
AND IS NOW COOLING DOWN A BIT IN A WEAK SEA BREEZE. ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST...SOME VERY SMALL AREAS OF STRATUS HAS FORMED RIGHT
ALONG SOME OF THE BEACHES...A DECENT INDICATOR THAT THE FORECAST FOR
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT IS ON TRACK FOR THE SBA
COUNTY CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE THE ONLY HAPPENINGS OF NOTE WILL BE
THE BELOW ADVISORY SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG THE
SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST...BUT EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN LAST
NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN CHARGE OF THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTS EAST A BIT
TOMORROW TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL COOL OUR
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
COASTAL AREAS MAY ACTUALLY DIP TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. MODELS HINT
AT A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION BUT DID NOT BITE OFF ON THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE LA COUNTY COAST JUST YET. THEN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING THE NAM INCREASES THE MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO LONG BEACH
SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD IN THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY FOR SOME MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FROM
FRIDAY`S HIGHS...MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER DEPENDING ON HIGH CLOUD
COVER.

STILL ENOUGH OF A THREAT...ALTHOUGH MINIMAL...TO LEAVE THE GOING TRW
CHANCES ON SUNDAY UNCHANGED. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT GREAT...BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HINTS AT A
KICKER ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE HIGH TO CONTINUE WITH THE GOING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT AT ALL A SLAMDUNK AT
THIS POINT...HOWEVER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH THE SAME AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL FOR NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS
GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT
THAT IMPRESSED WITH MODEL FORECASTS OF THE MARINE LAYER NEXT WEEK
BUT KEPT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. MODELS KEEPING MOST OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND NORMAL TO JUST BELOW COASTAL
AREAS...AND ABOVE NORMAL FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. AT KSMX
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A TWENTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING CIGS AT OTHER COASTAL SITES.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...24/230 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT AROUND
POINT CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 242122 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

...MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. AS
A RESULT...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE ALONG MAINLY
THE CENTRAL COAST EACH NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-SAT)...AFTERNOON WEATHER HAS BEHAVED PRETTY WELL SO
FAR TODAY. LOOKS LIKE WOODLAND HILLS IS THE WINNER SO FAR WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 104. PLENTY OF OTHER READINGS AT OR JUST ABOVE 100 IN
THE VALLEYS AND AV...WHILE COASTAL AREAS ALSO ABOVE NORMAL. THE
LAX-DAG ONSHORE GRADIENT IS ONLY WEAKLY ONSHORE BUT ENOUGH TO GET
SOME SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN
CHECK FOR THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE DOWNTOWN LA HAS REACHED ITS MAX OF 91
AND IS NOW COOLING DOWN A BIT IN A WEAK SEA BREEZE. ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST...SOME VERY SMALL AREAS OF STRATUS HAS FORMED RIGHT
ALONG SOME OF THE BEACHES...A DECENT INDICATOR THAT THE FORECAST FOR
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT IS ON TRACK FOR THE SBA
COUNTY CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE THE ONLY HAPPENINGS OF NOTE WILL BE
THE BELOW ADVISORY SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG THE
SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST...BUT EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN LAST
NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN CHARGE OF THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTS EAST A BIT
TOMORROW TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL COOL OUR
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
COASTAL AREAS MAY ACTUALLY DIP TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. MODELS HINT
AT A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION BUT DID NOT BITE OFF ON THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE LA COUNTY COAST JUST YET. THEN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING THE NAM INCREASES THE MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO LONG BEACH
SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD IN THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY FOR SOME MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FROM
FRIDAY`S HIGHS...MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER DEPENDING ON HIGH CLOUD
COVER.

STILL ENOUGH OF A THREAT...ALTHOUGH MINIMAL...TO LEAVE THE GOING TRW
CHANCES ON SUNDAY UNCHANGED. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT GREAT...BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HINTS AT A
KICKER ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE HIGH TO CONTINUE WITH THE GOING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT AT ALL A SLAMDUNK AT
THIS POINT...HOWEVER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH THE SAME AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL FOR NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS
GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT
THAT IMPRESSED WITH MODEL FORECASTS OF THE MARINE LAYER NEXT WEEK
BUT KEPT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. MODELS KEEPING MOST OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND NORMAL TO JUST BELOW COASTAL
AREAS...AND ABOVE NORMAL FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. AT KSMX
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A TWENTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING CIGS AT OTHER COASTAL SITES.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...24/230 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT AROUND
POINT CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 242036 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
136 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. AS
A RESULT..THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ..WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE ALONG MAINLY
THE CENTRAL COAST EACH NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-SAT)...AFTERNOON WEATHER HAS BEHAVED PRETTY WELL SO
FAR TODAY. LOOKS LIKE WOODLAND HILLS IS THE WINNER SO FAR WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 104. PLENTY OF OTHER READINGS AT OR JUST ABOVE 100 IN
THE VALLEYS AND AV...WHILE COASTAL AREAS ALSO ABOVE NORMAL. THE
LAX-DAG ONSHORE GRADIENT IS ONLY WEAKLY ONSHORE BUT ENOUGH TO GET
SOME SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN
CHECK FOR THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE DOWNTOWN LA HAS REACHED ITS MAX OF 91
AND IS NOW COOLING DOWN A BIT IN A WEAK SEA BREEZE. ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST...SOME VERY SMALL AREAS OF STRATUS HAS FORMED RIGHT
ALONG SOME OF THE BEACHES...A DECENT INDICATOR THAT THE FORECAST FOR
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT IS ON TRACK FOR THE SBA
COUNTY CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE THE ONLY HAPPENINGS OF NOTE WILL BE
THE BELOW ADVISORY SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG THE
SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST...BUT EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN LAST
NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN CHARGE OF THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTS EAST A BIT
TOMORROW TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL COOL OUR
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
COASTAL AREAS MAY ACTUALLY DIP TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. MODELS HINT
AT A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION BUT DID NOT BITE OFF ON THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE LA COUNTY COAST JUST YET. THEN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING THE NAM INCREASES THE MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO LONG BEACH
SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD IN THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY FOR SOME MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FROM
FRIDAY`S HIGHS...MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER DEPENDING ON HIGH CLOUD
COVER.

STILL ENOUGH OF A THREAT...ALTHOUGH MINIMAL...TO LEAVE THE GOING TRW
CHANCES ON SUNDAY UNCHANGED. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT GREAT...BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HINTS AT A
KICKER ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE HIGH TO CONTINUE WITH THE GOING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT AT ALL A SLAMDUNK AT
THIS POINT...HOWEVER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH THE SAME AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL FOR NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS
GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT
THAT IMPRESSED WITH MODEL FORECASTS OF THE MARINE LAYER NEXT WEEK
BUT KEPT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. MODELS KEEPING MOST OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND NORMAL TO JUST BELOW COASTAL
AREAS...AND ABOVE NORMAL FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. AT KSMX
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A TWENTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING CIGS AT OTHER COASTAL SITES.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT AROUND
POINT CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 242036 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
136 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. AS
A RESULT..THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ..WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE ALONG MAINLY
THE CENTRAL COAST EACH NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-SAT)...AFTERNOON WEATHER HAS BEHAVED PRETTY WELL SO
FAR TODAY. LOOKS LIKE WOODLAND HILLS IS THE WINNER SO FAR WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 104. PLENTY OF OTHER READINGS AT OR JUST ABOVE 100 IN
THE VALLEYS AND AV...WHILE COASTAL AREAS ALSO ABOVE NORMAL. THE
LAX-DAG ONSHORE GRADIENT IS ONLY WEAKLY ONSHORE BUT ENOUGH TO GET
SOME SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN
CHECK FOR THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE DOWNTOWN LA HAS REACHED ITS MAX OF 91
AND IS NOW COOLING DOWN A BIT IN A WEAK SEA BREEZE. ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST...SOME VERY SMALL AREAS OF STRATUS HAS FORMED RIGHT
ALONG SOME OF THE BEACHES...A DECENT INDICATOR THAT THE FORECAST FOR
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT IS ON TRACK FOR THE SBA
COUNTY CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE THE ONLY HAPPENINGS OF NOTE WILL BE
THE BELOW ADVISORY SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG THE
SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST...BUT EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN LAST
NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN CHARGE OF THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTS EAST A BIT
TOMORROW TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL COOL OUR
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
COASTAL AREAS MAY ACTUALLY DIP TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. MODELS HINT
AT A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION BUT DID NOT BITE OFF ON THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE LA COUNTY COAST JUST YET. THEN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING THE NAM INCREASES THE MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO LONG BEACH
SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD IN THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY FOR SOME MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FROM
FRIDAY`S HIGHS...MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER DEPENDING ON HIGH CLOUD
COVER.

STILL ENOUGH OF A THREAT...ALTHOUGH MINIMAL...TO LEAVE THE GOING TRW
CHANCES ON SUNDAY UNCHANGED. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT GREAT...BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HINTS AT A
KICKER ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE HIGH TO CONTINUE WITH THE GOING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT AT ALL A SLAMDUNK AT
THIS POINT...HOWEVER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH THE SAME AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL FOR NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS
GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT
THAT IMPRESSED WITH MODEL FORECASTS OF THE MARINE LAYER NEXT WEEK
BUT KEPT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. MODELS KEEPING MOST OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND NORMAL TO JUST BELOW COASTAL
AREAS...AND ABOVE NORMAL FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. AT KSMX
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A TWENTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING CIGS AT OTHER COASTAL SITES.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT AROUND
POINT CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 241752 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
MEXICO AND UTAH HOLDS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SAT)...
THE SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CENTRAL COAST HAS
CLEARED OUT LEAVING ENTIRELY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH TODAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE 7 DAY PERIOD...TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO WARM IN SOME
AREAS THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THEM TO EVENTUALLY GET THERE.  THE
CENTRAL COAST SHOWS THE GREATEST WARMING SO FAR. TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS
EXPECTED FROM THE DESERTS TO THE INLAND VALLEYS...AND 80S TO 90S
ALONG THE COAST. MOST RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE TODAY BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FALL. DOWNTOWN LA`S RECORD OF 103 IS
DEFINITELY SAFE. SOME THIN STRATUS IS SNEAKING DOWN THE JUST
OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL COAST AT THIS TIME SO THE IDEA OF OVERNIGHT LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COASTS LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
HIGH CENTER SHIFTS JUST EAST ENOUGH TOMORROW TO REDUCE OUR 1000-500
MB THICKNESS VALUES...IN COMBINATION WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM OUR SOUTH...TO COOL HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THEN ON SATURDAY.

SOME GUSTY WINDS DID MATERIALIZE ALONG THE SBA COUNTY SOUTH COAST
LAST NIGHT...BUT EXPECT WEAKER SUNDOWNER WINDS TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
MDLS SHOW JUST ENOUGH OF MONSOON PUSH TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
TO THE ERN SAN GABRIELS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHC OF TSTMS
HOWEVER WILL BE TO THE SE OF OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC.
THEY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS BUT IF THERE IS ENOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS THEN THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.

THEN THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS
STATIC THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY A COUPLE DAYS
PAST THAT. THE AIR UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO MOISTEN UP AND THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TO
THE BEACHES OF L.A. AND MAYBE VENTURA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. AT KSMX
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A TWENTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING CIGS AT OTHER COASTAL SITES.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT AROUND
POINT CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 241645 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
MEXICO AND UTAH HOLDS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SAT)...
THE SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CENTRAL COAST HAS
CLEARED OUT LEAVING ENTIRELY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH TODAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE 7 DAY PERIOD...TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO WARM IN SOME
AREAS THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THEM TO EVENTUALLY GET THERE.  THE
CENTRAL COAST SHOWS THE GREATEST WARMING SO FAR. TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS
EXPECTED FROM THE DESERTS TO THE INLAND VALLEYS...AND 80S TO 90S
ALONG THE COAST. MOST RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE TODAY BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FALL. DOWNTOWN LA`S RECORD OF 103 IS
DEFINITELY SAFE. SOME THIN STRATUS IS SNEAKING DOWN THE JUST
OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL COAST AT THIS TIME SO THE IDEA OF OVERNIGHT LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COASTS LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
HIGH CENTER SHIFTS JUST EAST ENOUGH TOMORROW TO REDUCE OUR 1000-500
MB THICKNESS VALUES...IN COMBINATION WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM OUR SOUTH...TO COOL HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THEN ON SATURDAY.

SOME GUSTY WINDS DID MATERIALIZE ALONG THE SBA COUNTY SOUTH COAST
LAST NIGHT...BUT EXPECT WEAKER SUNDOWNER WINDS TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
MDLS SHOW JUST ENOUGH OF MONSOON PUSH TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
TO THE ERN SAN GABRIELS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHC OF TSTMS
HOWEVER WILL BE TO THE SE OF OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC.
THEY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS BUT IF THERE IS ENOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS THEN THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.

THEN THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS
STATIC THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY A COUPLE DAYS
PAST THAT. THE AIR UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO MOISTEN UP AND THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TO
THE BEACHES OF L.A. AND MAYBE VENTURA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1100Z...

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT
ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR KSMX. AT KSMX...EXPECT LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO
CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE...BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. FOR
TONIGHT...WILL EXPECT A SIMILAR STRATUS PATTERN WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY
CONFINED TO CENTRAL COAST TAF SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CONDS RETURNING LATE TONIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT AROUND
POINT CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 241645 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
MEXICO AND UTAH HOLDS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SAT)...
THE SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CENTRAL COAST HAS
CLEARED OUT LEAVING ENTIRELY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH TODAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE 7 DAY PERIOD...TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO WARM IN SOME
AREAS THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THEM TO EVENTUALLY GET THERE.  THE
CENTRAL COAST SHOWS THE GREATEST WARMING SO FAR. TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS
EXPECTED FROM THE DESERTS TO THE INLAND VALLEYS...AND 80S TO 90S
ALONG THE COAST. MOST RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE TODAY BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FALL. DOWNTOWN LA`S RECORD OF 103 IS
DEFINITELY SAFE. SOME THIN STRATUS IS SNEAKING DOWN THE JUST
OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL COAST AT THIS TIME SO THE IDEA OF OVERNIGHT LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COASTS LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
HIGH CENTER SHIFTS JUST EAST ENOUGH TOMORROW TO REDUCE OUR 1000-500
MB THICKNESS VALUES...IN COMBINATION WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM OUR SOUTH...TO COOL HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THEN ON SATURDAY.

SOME GUSTY WINDS DID MATERIALIZE ALONG THE SBA COUNTY SOUTH COAST
LAST NIGHT...BUT EXPECT WEAKER SUNDOWNER WINDS TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
MDLS SHOW JUST ENOUGH OF MONSOON PUSH TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
TO THE ERN SAN GABRIELS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHC OF TSTMS
HOWEVER WILL BE TO THE SE OF OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC.
THEY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS BUT IF THERE IS ENOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS THEN THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.

THEN THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS
STATIC THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY A COUPLE DAYS
PAST THAT. THE AIR UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO MOISTEN UP AND THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TO
THE BEACHES OF L.A. AND MAYBE VENTURA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1100Z...

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT
ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR KSMX. AT KSMX...EXPECT LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO
CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE...BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. FOR
TONIGHT...WILL EXPECT A SIMILAR STRATUS PATTERN WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY
CONFINED TO CENTRAL COAST TAF SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CONDS RETURNING LATE TONIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT AROUND
POINT CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 241608 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEW MEXICO AND UTAH CONTINUES TO EXPAND WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
SEA AIR RIDING IN ON THE NW FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL COAST HAS CREATED
SOME LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN SBA COUNTY AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE.
OTHER THAN THAT SKIES ARE CLEAR AS A RESULT OF NO EDDY AND A 3MB
OFFSHORE PUSH FROM KBFL. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT 7
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND NEGLIGIBLE MARINE LAYER AS WELL AS A DOSE
OF 592 DM HGTS.

A LITTLE NON ADVISORY SUNDOWNER TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY BUT
IT WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IT WILL KEEP THE EVENING
QUITE WARM IN SOME LOCATIONS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND ACROSS THE COASTS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE COASTAL VLYS
BROUGHT UPON BY ONSHORE TRENDS BOTH TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HGTS WILL
BE STEADY AROUND 592 DM.

THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL COAST. IF THE
EDDY TURNS OUT TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FCST THERE MAY BE SOME
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST.

SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AROUND A HUMONGOUS
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AMARILLO AND STRETCHING FROM NASHVILLE TO
LOW ANGELES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
MDLS SHOW JUST ENOUGH OF MONSOON PUSH TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
TO THE ERN SAN GABRIELS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHC OF TSTMS
HOWEVER WILL BE TO THE SE OF OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC
THEY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS BUT IF THERE IS ENOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS THEN THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.

THEN THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS
STATIC THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY A COUPLE DAYS
PAST THAT. THE AIR UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO MOISTEN UP AND THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TO
THE BEACHES OF L.A. AND MAYBE VENTURA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1100Z...

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT
ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR KSMX. AT KSMX...EXPECT LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO
CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE...BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. FOR
TONIGHT...WILL EXPECT A SIMILAR STRATUS PATTERN WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY
CONFINED TO CENTRAL COAST TAF SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CONDS RETURNING LATE TONIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT AROUND
POINT CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 241608 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEW MEXICO AND UTAH CONTINUES TO EXPAND WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
SEA AIR RIDING IN ON THE NW FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL COAST HAS CREATED
SOME LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN SBA COUNTY AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE.
OTHER THAN THAT SKIES ARE CLEAR AS A RESULT OF NO EDDY AND A 3MB
OFFSHORE PUSH FROM KBFL. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT 7
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND NEGLIGIBLE MARINE LAYER AS WELL AS A DOSE
OF 592 DM HGTS.

A LITTLE NON ADVISORY SUNDOWNER TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY BUT
IT WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IT WILL KEEP THE EVENING
QUITE WARM IN SOME LOCATIONS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND ACROSS THE COASTS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE COASTAL VLYS
BROUGHT UPON BY ONSHORE TRENDS BOTH TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HGTS WILL
BE STEADY AROUND 592 DM.

THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL COAST. IF THE
EDDY TURNS OUT TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FCST THERE MAY BE SOME
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST.

SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AROUND A HUMONGOUS
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AMARILLO AND STRETCHING FROM NASHVILLE TO
LOW ANGELES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
MDLS SHOW JUST ENOUGH OF MONSOON PUSH TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
TO THE ERN SAN GABRIELS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHC OF TSTMS
HOWEVER WILL BE TO THE SE OF OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC
THEY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS BUT IF THERE IS ENOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS THEN THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.

THEN THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS
STATIC THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY A COUPLE DAYS
PAST THAT. THE AIR UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO MOISTEN UP AND THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TO
THE BEACHES OF L.A. AND MAYBE VENTURA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1100Z...

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT
ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR KSMX. AT KSMX...EXPECT LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO
CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE...BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. FOR
TONIGHT...WILL EXPECT A SIMILAR STRATUS PATTERN WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY
CONFINED TO CENTRAL COAST TAF SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CONDS RETURNING LATE TONIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT AROUND
POINT CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 241059 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEW MEXICO AND UTAH CONTINUES TO EXPAND WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
SEA AIR RIDING IN ON THE NW FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL COAST HAS CREATED
SOME LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN SBA COUNTY AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE.
OTHER THAN THAT SKIES ARE CLEAR AS A RESULT OF NO EDDY AND A 3MB
OFFSHORE PUSH FROM KBFL. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT 7
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND NEGLIGIBLE MARINE LAYER AS WELL AS A DOSE
OF 592 DM HGTS.

A LITTLE NON ADVISORY SUNDOWNER TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY BUT
IT WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IT WILL KEEP THE EVENING
QUITE WARM IN SOME LOCATIONS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND ACROSS THE COASTS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE COASTAL VLYS
BROUGHT UPON BY ONSHORE TRENDS BOTH TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HGTS WILL
BE STEADY AROUND 592 DM.

THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL COAST. IF THE
EDDY TURNS OUT TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FCST THERE MAY BE SOME
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST.

SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AROUND A HUMONGOUS
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AMARILLO AND STRETCHING FROM NASHVILLE TO
LOW ANGELES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
MDLS SHOW JUST ENOUGH OF MONSOON PUSH TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
TO THE ERN SAN GABRIELS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHC OF TSTMS
HOWEVER WILL BE TO THE SE OF OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC
THEY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS BUT IF THERE IS ENOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS THEN THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.

THEN THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS
STATIC THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY A COUPLE DAYS
PAST THAT. THE AIR UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO MOISTEN UP AND THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TO
THE BEACHES OF L.A. AND MAYBE VENTURA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1100Z...

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT
ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR KSMX. AT KSMX...EXPECT LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO
CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE...BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. FOR
TONIGHT...WILL EXPECT A SIMILAR STRATUS PATTERN WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY
CONFINED TO CENTRAL COAST TAF SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CONDS RETURNING LATE TONIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...24/350 AM...

FOR OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THRU
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT AROUND POINT CONCEPTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY...AND REMAIN
WEAK THRU THE WEEKEND.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THRU TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY...AND REMAIN WEAK THRU
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 241059 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEW MEXICO AND UTAH CONTINUES TO EXPAND WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
SEA AIR RIDING IN ON THE NW FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL COAST HAS CREATED
SOME LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN SBA COUNTY AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE.
OTHER THAN THAT SKIES ARE CLEAR AS A RESULT OF NO EDDY AND A 3MB
OFFSHORE PUSH FROM KBFL. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT 7
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND NEGLIGIBLE MARINE LAYER AS WELL AS A DOSE
OF 592 DM HGTS.

A LITTLE NON ADVISORY SUNDOWNER TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY BUT
IT WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IT WILL KEEP THE EVENING
QUITE WARM IN SOME LOCATIONS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND ACROSS THE COASTS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE COASTAL VLYS
BROUGHT UPON BY ONSHORE TRENDS BOTH TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HGTS WILL
BE STEADY AROUND 592 DM.

THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL COAST. IF THE
EDDY TURNS OUT TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FCST THERE MAY BE SOME
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST.

SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AROUND A HUMONGOUS
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AMARILLO AND STRETCHING FROM NASHVILLE TO
LOW ANGELES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
MDLS SHOW JUST ENOUGH OF MONSOON PUSH TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
TO THE ERN SAN GABRIELS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHC OF TSTMS
HOWEVER WILL BE TO THE SE OF OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC
THEY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS BUT IF THERE IS ENOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS THEN THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.

THEN THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS
STATIC THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY A COUPLE DAYS
PAST THAT. THE AIR UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO MOISTEN UP AND THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TO
THE BEACHES OF L.A. AND MAYBE VENTURA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1100Z...

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT
ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR KSMX. AT KSMX...EXPECT LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO
CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE...BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. FOR
TONIGHT...WILL EXPECT A SIMILAR STRATUS PATTERN WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY
CONFINED TO CENTRAL COAST TAF SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CONDS RETURNING LATE TONIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...24/350 AM...

FOR OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THRU
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT AROUND POINT CONCEPTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY...AND REMAIN
WEAK THRU THE WEEKEND.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THRU TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY...AND REMAIN WEAK THRU
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 241022
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEW MEXICO AND UTAH CONTINUES TO EXPAND WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
SEA AIR RIDING IN ON THE NW FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL COAST HAS CREATED
SOME LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN SBA COUNTY AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE.
OTHER THAN THAT SKIES ARE CLEAR AS A RESULT OF NO EDDY AND A 3MB
OFFSHORE PUSH FROM KBFL. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT 7
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND NEGLIGIBLE MARINE LAYER AS WELL AS A DOSE
OF 592 DM HGTS.

A LITTLE NON ADVISORY SUNDOWNER TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY BUT
IT WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IT WILL KEEP THE EVENING
QUITE WARM IN SOME LOCATIONS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND ACROSS THE COASTS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE COASTAL VLYS
BROUGHT UPON BY ONSHORE TRENDS BOTH TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HGTS WILL
BE STEADY AROUND 592 DM.

THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL COAST. IF THE
EDDY TURNS OUT TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FCST THERE MAY BE SOME
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST.

SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AROUND A HUMONGOUS
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AMARILLO AND STRETCHING FROM NASHVILLE TO
LOW ANGELES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
MDLS SHOW JUST ENOUGH OF MONSOON PUSH TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
TO THE ERN SAN GABRIELS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHC OF TSTMS
HOWEVER WILL BE TO THE SE OF OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC
THEY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS BUT IF THERE IS ENOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS THEN THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.

THEN THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS
STATIC THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY A COUPLE DAYS
PAST THAT. THE AIR UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO MOISTEN UP AND THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TO
THE BEACHES OF L.A. AND MAYBE VENTURA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

24/0600Z

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS AT KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB FROM
10Z TO 16Z. LIFR CONDS ARE LIKELY NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION THROUGH 16Z.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF...EXCEPT FOR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.


&&

.MARINE...23/300 PM

FOR OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS PZZ673/676 THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 241022
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEW MEXICO AND UTAH CONTINUES TO EXPAND WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
SEA AIR RIDING IN ON THE NW FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL COAST HAS CREATED
SOME LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN SBA COUNTY AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE.
OTHER THAN THAT SKIES ARE CLEAR AS A RESULT OF NO EDDY AND A 3MB
OFFSHORE PUSH FROM KBFL. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT 7
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND NEGLIGIBLE MARINE LAYER AS WELL AS A DOSE
OF 592 DM HGTS.

A LITTLE NON ADVISORY SUNDOWNER TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY BUT
IT WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IT WILL KEEP THE EVENING
QUITE WARM IN SOME LOCATIONS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND ACROSS THE COASTS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE COASTAL VLYS
BROUGHT UPON BY ONSHORE TRENDS BOTH TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HGTS WILL
BE STEADY AROUND 592 DM.

THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL COAST. IF THE
EDDY TURNS OUT TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FCST THERE MAY BE SOME
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST.

SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AROUND A HUMONGOUS
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AMARILLO AND STRETCHING FROM NASHVILLE TO
LOW ANGELES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
MDLS SHOW JUST ENOUGH OF MONSOON PUSH TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
TO THE ERN SAN GABRIELS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHC OF TSTMS
HOWEVER WILL BE TO THE SE OF OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC
THEY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS BUT IF THERE IS ENOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS THEN THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.

THEN THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS
STATIC THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY A COUPLE DAYS
PAST THAT. THE AIR UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO MOISTEN UP AND THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TO
THE BEACHES OF L.A. AND MAYBE VENTURA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

24/0600Z

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS AT KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB FROM
10Z TO 16Z. LIFR CONDS ARE LIKELY NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION THROUGH 16Z.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF...EXCEPT FOR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.


&&

.MARINE...23/300 PM

FOR OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS PZZ673/676 THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 240617
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW MEXICO AND UTAH CONTINUES TO EXPAND WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW IS
WEAKENING THIS EVENING. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE IMMEDIATE CENTRAL
COAST. A MUCH BETTER MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK IS FORMING OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST AND MOVING ASHORE THIS EVENING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND DENSE FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS THIS
EVENING. KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED TO
-4.7 MB THIS EVENING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH HAVE SURFACED
BETWEEN GOLETA AND GAVIOTA THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EDDY CIRCULATION FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING FOR COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. WE MAY ALSO SEE THE
RETURN OF A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LYR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND COASTAL LA COUNTY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER SAT, THOUGH
EVEN WITH THIS SLIGHT COOLING TREND HIGHS WILL STILL BE 3-5
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...VERY LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
TO RESTRENGTHEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PUSH TEMPS BACK UP A FEW
DEGREES. MODELS CONTINUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY HINT AT A POSSIBLE
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY A
LITTLE DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS SO WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

24/0600Z

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS AT KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB FROM
10Z TO 16Z. LIFR CONDS ARE LIKELY NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION THROUGH 16Z.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF...EXCEPT FOR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 PM.

FOR OUTER WATERS...CONFIDENCE WANING FOR GALE FORCE WINDS THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS
LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE....HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 240617
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW MEXICO AND UTAH CONTINUES TO EXPAND WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW IS
WEAKENING THIS EVENING. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE IMMEDIATE CENTRAL
COAST. A MUCH BETTER MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK IS FORMING OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST AND MOVING ASHORE THIS EVENING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND DENSE FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS THIS
EVENING. KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED TO
-4.7 MB THIS EVENING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH HAVE SURFACED
BETWEEN GOLETA AND GAVIOTA THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EDDY CIRCULATION FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING FOR COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. WE MAY ALSO SEE THE
RETURN OF A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LYR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND COASTAL LA COUNTY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER SAT, THOUGH
EVEN WITH THIS SLIGHT COOLING TREND HIGHS WILL STILL BE 3-5
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...VERY LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
TO RESTRENGTHEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PUSH TEMPS BACK UP A FEW
DEGREES. MODELS CONTINUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY HINT AT A POSSIBLE
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY A
LITTLE DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS SO WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

24/0600Z

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS AT KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB FROM
10Z TO 16Z. LIFR CONDS ARE LIKELY NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION THROUGH 16Z.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF...EXCEPT FOR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 PM.

FOR OUTER WATERS...CONFIDENCE WANING FOR GALE FORCE WINDS THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS
LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE....HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 240401
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
901 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW MEXICO AND UTAH CONTINUES TO EXPAND WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW IS
WEAKENING THIS EVENING. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE IMMEDIATE CENTRAL
COAST. A MUCH BETTER MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK IS FORMING OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST AND MOVING ASHORE THIS EVENING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND DENSE FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS THIS
EVENING. KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED TO
-4.7 MB THIS EVENING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH HAVE SURFACED
BETWEEN GOLETA AND GAVIOTA THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EDDY CIRCULATION FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING FOR COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. WE MAY ALSO SEE THE
RETURN OF A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LYR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND COASTAL LA COUNTY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER SAT, THOUGH
EVEN WITH THIS SLIGHT COOLING TREND HIGHS WILL STILL BE 3-5
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...VERY LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
TO RESTRENGTHEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PUSH TEMPS BACK UP A FEW
DEGREES. MODELS CONTINUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY HINT AT A POSSIBLE
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY A
LITTLE DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS SO WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2340Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z AT LOS ANGELES COASTAL
AND CENTRAL COAST TERMINALS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA THROUGH 08Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. NO
WIND ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO
WIND ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 PM.

FOR OUTER WATERS...CONFIDENCE WANING FOR GALE FORCE WINDS THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS
LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE....HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 240401
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
901 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW MEXICO AND UTAH CONTINUES TO EXPAND WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW IS
WEAKENING THIS EVENING. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE IMMEDIATE CENTRAL
COAST. A MUCH BETTER MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK IS FORMING OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST AND MOVING ASHORE THIS EVENING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND DENSE FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS THIS
EVENING. KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED TO
-4.7 MB THIS EVENING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH HAVE SURFACED
BETWEEN GOLETA AND GAVIOTA THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EDDY CIRCULATION FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING FOR COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. WE MAY ALSO SEE THE
RETURN OF A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LYR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND COASTAL LA COUNTY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER SAT, THOUGH
EVEN WITH THIS SLIGHT COOLING TREND HIGHS WILL STILL BE 3-5
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...VERY LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
TO RESTRENGTHEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PUSH TEMPS BACK UP A FEW
DEGREES. MODELS CONTINUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY HINT AT A POSSIBLE
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY A
LITTLE DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS SO WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2340Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z AT LOS ANGELES COASTAL
AND CENTRAL COAST TERMINALS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA THROUGH 08Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. NO
WIND ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO
WIND ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 PM.

FOR OUTER WATERS...CONFIDENCE WANING FOR GALE FORCE WINDS THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS
LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE....HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 232340 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A HIGH SYSTEM WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...INLAND FAIR SKIES AND OVERNIGHT COASTAL
CLOUDS. BREEZY WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY...THEN WILL COOL A
FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WARMING TREND ON TAP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FORECAST ON TRACK AND MINIMAL CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE. HIGHS TODAY ENDED UP BEING A SKOSH WARMER THAN EXPECTED
(1-2 DEGREES) AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO
THU. THAT STILL SHOULD KEEP MOST OFFICIAL RECORDS IN TACT. THE
EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE SBA WHICH ONLY HAS TO REACH 82 TO EQUAL THE
PREVIOUS RECORD AND SANTA MARIA WHICH HAS A REACHABLE 84 FOR A
RECORD. OTHERS WOULD REQUIRE A MUCH WARMER DAY THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY
CALLING FOR.

WILL BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE WIND GUSTS IN
THE LOW 30S AT 1 PM BELOW THE WESTERN PASSES AND CANYONS AND I
EXPECT WE`LL SEE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 40 MPH LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EDDY CIRCULATION
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING FOR
COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. WE MAY ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF A VERY SHALLOW
MARINE LYR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND COASTAL LA COUNTY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER SAT, THOUGH EVEN WITH THIS SLIGHT COOLING TREND HIGHS
WILL STILL BE 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO RESTRENGTHEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PUSH TEMPS BACK UP A
FEW DEGREES. MODELS CONTINUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY HINT AT A POSSIBLE
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE
DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS SO WILL KEEP A
DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2340Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z AT LOS ANGELES COASTAL
AND CENTRAL COAST TERMINALS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA THROUGH 08Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. NO
WIND ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO
WIND ISSUES.


&&

.MARINE...23/300 PM

FOR OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS PZZ673/676 THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 232340 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A HIGH SYSTEM WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...INLAND FAIR SKIES AND OVERNIGHT COASTAL
CLOUDS. BREEZY WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY...THEN WILL COOL A
FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WARMING TREND ON TAP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FORECAST ON TRACK AND MINIMAL CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE. HIGHS TODAY ENDED UP BEING A SKOSH WARMER THAN EXPECTED
(1-2 DEGREES) AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO
THU. THAT STILL SHOULD KEEP MOST OFFICIAL RECORDS IN TACT. THE
EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE SBA WHICH ONLY HAS TO REACH 82 TO EQUAL THE
PREVIOUS RECORD AND SANTA MARIA WHICH HAS A REACHABLE 84 FOR A
RECORD. OTHERS WOULD REQUIRE A MUCH WARMER DAY THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY
CALLING FOR.

WILL BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE WIND GUSTS IN
THE LOW 30S AT 1 PM BELOW THE WESTERN PASSES AND CANYONS AND I
EXPECT WE`LL SEE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 40 MPH LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EDDY CIRCULATION
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING FOR
COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. WE MAY ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF A VERY SHALLOW
MARINE LYR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND COASTAL LA COUNTY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER SAT, THOUGH EVEN WITH THIS SLIGHT COOLING TREND HIGHS
WILL STILL BE 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO RESTRENGTHEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PUSH TEMPS BACK UP A
FEW DEGREES. MODELS CONTINUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY HINT AT A POSSIBLE
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE
DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS SO WILL KEEP A
DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2340Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z AT LOS ANGELES COASTAL
AND CENTRAL COAST TERMINALS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA THROUGH 08Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. NO
WIND ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO
WIND ISSUES.


&&

.MARINE...23/300 PM

FOR OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS PZZ673/676 THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 232023
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A HIGH SYSTEM WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...INLAND FAIR SKIES AND OVERNIGHT COASTAL
CLOUDS. BREEZY WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY...THEN WILL COOL A
FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WARMING TREND ON TAP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FORECAST ON TRACK AND MINIMAL CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE. HIGHS TODAY ENDED UP BEING A SKOSH WARMER THAN EXPECTED
(1-2 DEGREES) AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO
THU. THAT STILL SHOULD KEEP MOST OFFICIAL RECORDS IN TACT. THE
EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE SBA WHICH ONLY HAS TO REACH 82 TO EQUAL THE
PREVIOUS RECORD AND SANTA MARIA WHICH HAS A REACHABLE 84 FOR A
RECORD. OTHERS WOULD REQUIRE A MUCH WARMER DAY THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY
CALLING FOR.

WILL BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE WIND GUSTS IN
THE LOW 30S AT 1 PM BELOW THE WESTERN PASSES AND CANYONS AND I
EXPECT WE`LL SEE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 40 MPH LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EDDY CIRCULATION
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING FOR
COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. WE MAY ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF A VERY SHALLOW
MARINE LYR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND COASTAL LA COUNTY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER SAT, THOUGH EVEN WITH THIS SLIGHT COOLING TREND HIGHS
WILL STILL BE 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO RESTRENGTHEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PUSH TEMPS BACK UP A
FEW DEGREES. MODELS CONTINUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY HINT AT A POSSIBLE
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE
DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS SO WILL KEEP A
DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1800Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. EXPECTING THE MARINE CLOUDS TO
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LITTLE INLAND PENETRATION...SO
ALL THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KSBA THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS REACHING THE AIRFIELD LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...23/300 PM

FOR OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS PZZ673/676 THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 232023
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A HIGH SYSTEM WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...INLAND FAIR SKIES AND OVERNIGHT COASTAL
CLOUDS. BREEZY WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY...THEN WILL COOL A
FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WARMING TREND ON TAP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FORECAST ON TRACK AND MINIMAL CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE. HIGHS TODAY ENDED UP BEING A SKOSH WARMER THAN EXPECTED
(1-2 DEGREES) AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO
THU. THAT STILL SHOULD KEEP MOST OFFICIAL RECORDS IN TACT. THE
EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE SBA WHICH ONLY HAS TO REACH 82 TO EQUAL THE
PREVIOUS RECORD AND SANTA MARIA WHICH HAS A REACHABLE 84 FOR A
RECORD. OTHERS WOULD REQUIRE A MUCH WARMER DAY THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY
CALLING FOR.

WILL BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE WIND GUSTS IN
THE LOW 30S AT 1 PM BELOW THE WESTERN PASSES AND CANYONS AND I
EXPECT WE`LL SEE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 40 MPH LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EDDY CIRCULATION
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING FOR
COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. WE MAY ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF A VERY SHALLOW
MARINE LYR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND COASTAL LA COUNTY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER SAT, THOUGH EVEN WITH THIS SLIGHT COOLING TREND HIGHS
WILL STILL BE 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO RESTRENGTHEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PUSH TEMPS BACK UP A
FEW DEGREES. MODELS CONTINUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY HINT AT A POSSIBLE
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE
DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS SO WILL KEEP A
DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1800Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. EXPECTING THE MARINE CLOUDS TO
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LITTLE INLAND PENETRATION...SO
ALL THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KSBA THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS REACHING THE AIRFIELD LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...23/300 PM

FOR OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS PZZ673/676 THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 231846
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1145 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXPANDS WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW FOR THE DESERT AND SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MARINE LYR DEPTH HAS LOWERED TO AROUND
1000` BUT NO CLOUDS HAVE FORMED UNDERNEATH THAT INVERSION. EXPECT
THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THURSDAY AS GRADIENTS TREND A BIT
MORE OFFSHORE. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY, AT LEAST FOR COAST AND
VALLEYS AS AN EDDY CIRCULATION SPINS UP ACROSS THE SO CAL BIGHT
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO
FORM A VERY SHALLOW LOW CLOUD LAYER WITH DENSE FOG FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND COASTAL LA COUNTY. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO
COOL A COUPLE DEGREES FRI, SO STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARMEST
VALLEYS STILL IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.

WILL PROBABLY BE SEEING LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNER WINDS IN
THE SBA AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE A VERY WARM SUNDOWNER WITH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 90S THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
NOTHING BUT HEAT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SIT
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL COVER
CALIFORNIA. HGTS REMAIN NEAR 592 DM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DAY TO DAY
CHANGE. THE MONSOON DOOR WILL BE OPEN BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MOISTURE AND EASTERLY WAVES WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF LA COUNTY.
THESE ARE THE SUBTLE DETAILS THE MDLS REALLY CANT HANDLE SO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION TO MAKE SURE NO MOISTURE SNEAKS INTO
THE AREA. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MAY DEVELOP ALONG SOME THE BEACHES
BUT FOR THE MOST PART THERE WILL BE NO STRATUS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND SETTLES OVER YUMA.
THIS WILL CUT OFF ANY MONSOON CHC BUT IT MAY WARM THINGS UP A DEGREE
OR TWO.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW NO LET UP IN THE HEAT THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

THE FANTASYLAND GFS XTND XTND SOLN SHOWS NO LET UP FROM THE RIDGE
UNTIL AUGUST 3RD OR 4TH.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1800Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. EXPECTING THE MARINE CLOUDS TO
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LITTLE INLAND PENETRATION...SO
ALL THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KSBA THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS REACHING THE AIRFIELD LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...23/0900 AM

FOR OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PZZ673/676 THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 231846
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1145 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXPANDS WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW FOR THE DESERT AND SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MARINE LYR DEPTH HAS LOWERED TO AROUND
1000` BUT NO CLOUDS HAVE FORMED UNDERNEATH THAT INVERSION. EXPECT
THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THURSDAY AS GRADIENTS TREND A BIT
MORE OFFSHORE. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY, AT LEAST FOR COAST AND
VALLEYS AS AN EDDY CIRCULATION SPINS UP ACROSS THE SO CAL BIGHT
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO
FORM A VERY SHALLOW LOW CLOUD LAYER WITH DENSE FOG FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND COASTAL LA COUNTY. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO
COOL A COUPLE DEGREES FRI, SO STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARMEST
VALLEYS STILL IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.

WILL PROBABLY BE SEEING LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNER WINDS IN
THE SBA AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE A VERY WARM SUNDOWNER WITH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 90S THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
NOTHING BUT HEAT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SIT
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL COVER
CALIFORNIA. HGTS REMAIN NEAR 592 DM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DAY TO DAY
CHANGE. THE MONSOON DOOR WILL BE OPEN BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MOISTURE AND EASTERLY WAVES WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF LA COUNTY.
THESE ARE THE SUBTLE DETAILS THE MDLS REALLY CANT HANDLE SO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION TO MAKE SURE NO MOISTURE SNEAKS INTO
THE AREA. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MAY DEVELOP ALONG SOME THE BEACHES
BUT FOR THE MOST PART THERE WILL BE NO STRATUS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND SETTLES OVER YUMA.
THIS WILL CUT OFF ANY MONSOON CHC BUT IT MAY WARM THINGS UP A DEGREE
OR TWO.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW NO LET UP IN THE HEAT THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

THE FANTASYLAND GFS XTND XTND SOLN SHOWS NO LET UP FROM THE RIDGE
UNTIL AUGUST 3RD OR 4TH.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1800Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. EXPECTING THE MARINE CLOUDS TO
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LITTLE INLAND PENETRATION...SO
ALL THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KSBA THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS REACHING THE AIRFIELD LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...23/0900 AM

FOR OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PZZ673/676 THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 231618
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXPANDS WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW FOR THE DESERT AND SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MARINE LYR DEPTH HAS LOWERED TO AROUND
1000` BUT NO CLOUDS HAVE FORMED UNDERNEATH THAT INVERSION. EXPECT
THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THURSDAY AS GRADIENTS TREND A BIT
MORE OFFSHORE. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY, AT LEAST FOR COAST AND
VALLEYS AS AN EDDY CIRCULATION SPINS UP ACROSS THE SO CAL BIGHT
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO
FORM A VERY SHALLOW LOW CLOUD LAYER WITH DENSE FOG FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND COASTAL LA COUNTY. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO
COOL A COUPLE DEGREES FRI, SO STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARMEST
VALLEYS STILL IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.

WILL PROBABLY BE SEEING LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNER WINDS IN
THE SBA AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE A VERY WARM SUNDOWNER WITH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 90S THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
NOTHING BUT HEAT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SIT
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL COVER
CALIFORNIA. HGTS REMAIN NEAR 592 DM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DAY TO DAY
CHANGE. THE MONSOON DOOR WILL BE OPEN BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MOISTURE AND EASTERLY WAVES WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF LA COUNTY.
THESE ARE THE SUBTLE DETAILS THE MDLS REALLY CANT HANDLE SO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION TO MAKE SURE NO MOISTURE SNEAKS INTO
THE AREA. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MAY DEVELOP ALONG SOME THE BEACHES
BUT FOR THE MOST PART THERE WILL BE NO STRATUS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND SETTLES OVER YUMA.
THIS WILL CUT OFF ANY MONSOON CHC BUT IT MAY WARM THINGS UP A DEGREE
OR TWO.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW NO LET UP IN THE HEAT THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

THE FANTASYLAND GFS XTND XTND SOLN SHOWS NO LET UP FROM THE RIDGE
UNTIL AUGUST 3RD OR 4TH.

&&

.AVIATION...

23/1115Z

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE PATCH OF IFR/LIFR
STRATUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ANY COASTAL TAF THIS MORNING. FOR
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO CENTRAL
COAST TAFS AND KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z). FOR TONIGHT...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT ANY CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...23/0900 AM

FOR OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PZZ673/676 THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 231618
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXPANDS WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW FOR THE DESERT AND SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MARINE LYR DEPTH HAS LOWERED TO AROUND
1000` BUT NO CLOUDS HAVE FORMED UNDERNEATH THAT INVERSION. EXPECT
THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THURSDAY AS GRADIENTS TREND A BIT
MORE OFFSHORE. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY, AT LEAST FOR COAST AND
VALLEYS AS AN EDDY CIRCULATION SPINS UP ACROSS THE SO CAL BIGHT
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO
FORM A VERY SHALLOW LOW CLOUD LAYER WITH DENSE FOG FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND COASTAL LA COUNTY. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO
COOL A COUPLE DEGREES FRI, SO STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARMEST
VALLEYS STILL IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.

WILL PROBABLY BE SEEING LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNER WINDS IN
THE SBA AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE A VERY WARM SUNDOWNER WITH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 90S THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
NOTHING BUT HEAT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SIT
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL COVER
CALIFORNIA. HGTS REMAIN NEAR 592 DM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DAY TO DAY
CHANGE. THE MONSOON DOOR WILL BE OPEN BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MOISTURE AND EASTERLY WAVES WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF LA COUNTY.
THESE ARE THE SUBTLE DETAILS THE MDLS REALLY CANT HANDLE SO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION TO MAKE SURE NO MOISTURE SNEAKS INTO
THE AREA. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MAY DEVELOP ALONG SOME THE BEACHES
BUT FOR THE MOST PART THERE WILL BE NO STRATUS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND SETTLES OVER YUMA.
THIS WILL CUT OFF ANY MONSOON CHC BUT IT MAY WARM THINGS UP A DEGREE
OR TWO.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW NO LET UP IN THE HEAT THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

THE FANTASYLAND GFS XTND XTND SOLN SHOWS NO LET UP FROM THE RIDGE
UNTIL AUGUST 3RD OR 4TH.

&&

.AVIATION...

23/1115Z

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE PATCH OF IFR/LIFR
STRATUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ANY COASTAL TAF THIS MORNING. FOR
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO CENTRAL
COAST TAFS AND KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z). FOR TONIGHT...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT ANY CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...23/0900 AM

FOR OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PZZ673/676 THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 231613
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXPANDS WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW FOR THE DESERT AND SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MARINE LYR DEPTH HAS LOWERED TO AROUND
1000` BUT NO CLOUDS HAVE FORMED UNDERNEATH THAT INVERSION. EXPECT
THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THURSDAY AS GRADIENTS TREND A BIT
MORE OFFSHORE. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY, AT LEAST FOR COAST AND
VALLEYS AS AN EDDY CIRCULATION SPINS UP ACROSS THE SO CAL BIGHT
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO
FORM A VERY SHALLOW LOW CLOUD LAYER WITH DENSE FOG FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND COASTAL LA COUNTY. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO
COOL A COUPLE DEGREES FRI, SO STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARMEST
VALLEYS STILL IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.

WILL PROBABLY BE SEEING LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNER WINDS IN
THE SBA AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE A VERY WARM SUNDOWNER WITH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 90S THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
NOTHING BUT HEAT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SIT
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL COVER
CALIFORNIA. HGTS REMAIN NEAR 592 DM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DAY TO DAY
CHANGE. THE MONSOON DOOR WILL BE OPEN BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MOISTURE AND EASTERLY WAVES WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF LA COUNTY.
THESE ARE THE SUBTLE DETAILS THE MDLS REALLY CANT HANDLE SO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION TO MAKE SURE NO MOISTURE SNEAKS INTO
THE AREA. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MAY DEVELOP ALONG SOME THE BEACHES
BUT FOR THE MOST PART THERE WILL BE NO STRATUS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND SETTLES OVER YUMA.
THIS WILL CUT OFF ANY MONSOON CHC BUT IT MAY WARM THINGS UP A DEGREE
OR TWO.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW NO LET UP IN THE HEAT THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

THE FANTASYLAND GFS XTND XTND SOLN SHOWS NO LET UP FROM THE RIDGE
UNTIL AUGUST 3RD OR 4TH.

&&

.AVIATION...

23/1115Z

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE PATCH OF IFR/LIFR
STRATUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ANY COASTAL TAF THIS MORNING. FOR
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO CENTRAL
COAST TAFS AND KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z). FOR TONIGHT...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT ANY CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...23/200 AM...

FOR OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PZZ673/676 THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 231613
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXPANDS WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW FOR THE DESERT AND SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MARINE LYR DEPTH HAS LOWERED TO AROUND
1000` BUT NO CLOUDS HAVE FORMED UNDERNEATH THAT INVERSION. EXPECT
THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THURSDAY AS GRADIENTS TREND A BIT
MORE OFFSHORE. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY, AT LEAST FOR COAST AND
VALLEYS AS AN EDDY CIRCULATION SPINS UP ACROSS THE SO CAL BIGHT
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO
FORM A VERY SHALLOW LOW CLOUD LAYER WITH DENSE FOG FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND COASTAL LA COUNTY. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO
COOL A COUPLE DEGREES FRI, SO STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARMEST
VALLEYS STILL IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.

WILL PROBABLY BE SEEING LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNER WINDS IN
THE SBA AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE A VERY WARM SUNDOWNER WITH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 90S THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
NOTHING BUT HEAT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SIT
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL COVER
CALIFORNIA. HGTS REMAIN NEAR 592 DM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DAY TO DAY
CHANGE. THE MONSOON DOOR WILL BE OPEN BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MOISTURE AND EASTERLY WAVES WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF LA COUNTY.
THESE ARE THE SUBTLE DETAILS THE MDLS REALLY CANT HANDLE SO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION TO MAKE SURE NO MOISTURE SNEAKS INTO
THE AREA. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MAY DEVELOP ALONG SOME THE BEACHES
BUT FOR THE MOST PART THERE WILL BE NO STRATUS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND SETTLES OVER YUMA.
THIS WILL CUT OFF ANY MONSOON CHC BUT IT MAY WARM THINGS UP A DEGREE
OR TWO.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW NO LET UP IN THE HEAT THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

THE FANTASYLAND GFS XTND XTND SOLN SHOWS NO LET UP FROM THE RIDGE
UNTIL AUGUST 3RD OR 4TH.

&&

.AVIATION...

23/1115Z

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE PATCH OF IFR/LIFR
STRATUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ANY COASTAL TAF THIS MORNING. FOR
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO CENTRAL
COAST TAFS AND KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z). FOR TONIGHT...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT ANY CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...23/200 AM...

FOR OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PZZ673/676 THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 231041
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXPANDS WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW FOR THE DESERT AND SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA AT THE MOMENT AND ITS DOUBTFUL THAT ANY
MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...SO LOOK FOR SUNNY DAY TODAY. 592
DM HGTS OVER THE AREA AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO KDAG AND ACTUALLY
OFFSHORE FLOW FROM KBFL WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM DAY. ALL AREAS
WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND THERE WILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS IN THE WARMEST VLY LOCATIONS AS WELL ALMOST THEN ENTIRE
ANTELOPE VLY.

NOT MUCH EXCITEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE
600 DM UPPER IS OVER COLORADO AND A WEAK TROF IS LYING JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE COAST. THERE IS CURRENTLY SW FLOW OVER CA. OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS THE UPPER HIGH WILL BULGE AND EXPAND WESTWARD. BY FRIDAY
THE HIGH WILL COVER MUCH OF THE STATE AND ALL OF SO CAL. THE HIGH
ACTUALLY WEAKENS A BIT WHEN IT EXPANDS SO HGTS ACTUALLY FALL A FEW
DM THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT THIS WILL NOT AFFECT THE
TEMPERATURES MUCH.

MAX TEMPS WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS AS THERE
WILL BE NEAR NEUTRAL FLOW TO KDAG AND INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW FROM
KBFL. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS WILL BE THE NORM IN THE VLYS AND INLAND
AREAS AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF 80S AND SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS
ACROSS THE COASTS. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW RECORDS BROKEN WHEN
THE DAY IS DONE.  FALLING HGTS AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL COOL
THINGS A LITTLE (MOSTLY AT THE COAST) ON FRIDAY.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE NO CLOUDS AGAIN THURSDAY. MDLS
INSIST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SO KEPT THE MINIMAL CLOUDS IN FOR THE
SW LA COAST AND THE CENTRAL COAST. BUT AGAIN THIS MAY BE OVERDONE.
THE NAM SHOWS THE BAREST OF EDDYS ON FRIDAY AND THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH
TO DEVELOP AT LEAST A FEW CLOUDS.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE A DECENT SUNDOWNER
TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH
THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SBA SOUTH COAST.
THIS KIND OF SITUATION OFTEN BRINGS SBA CITY THERE MAX TEMPERATURE
AT SUNSET AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TODAY IS ONE OF THOSE DAYS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
NOTHING BUT HEAT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SIT
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL COVER
CALIFORNIA. HGTS REMAIN NEAR 592 DM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DAY TO DAY
CHANGE. THE MONSOON DOOR WILL BE OPEN BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MOISTURE AND EASTERLY WAVES WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF LA COUNTY.
THESE ARE THE SUBTLE DETAILS THE MDLS REALLY CANT HANDLE SO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION TO MAKE SURE NO MOISTURE SNEAKS INTO
THE AREA. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MAY DEVELOP ALONG SOME THE BEACHES
BUT FOR THE MOST PART THERE WILL BE NO STRATUS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND SETTLES OVER YUMA.
THIS WILL CUT OFF ANY MONSOON CHC BUT IT MAY WARM THINGS UP A DEGREE
OR TWO.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW NO LET UP IN THE HEAT THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

THE FANTASYLAND GFS XTND XTND SOLN SHOWS NO LET UP FROM THE RIDGE
UNTIL AUGUST 3RD OR 4TH.

&&

.AVIATION...

23/1115Z

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE PATCH OF IFR/LIFR
STRATUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ANY COASTAL TAF THIS MORNING. FOR
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO CENTRAL
COAST TAFS AND KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z). FOR TONIGHT...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT ANY CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...23/200 AM...

FOR OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PZZ673/676 THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 231041
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXPANDS WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW FOR THE DESERT AND SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA AT THE MOMENT AND ITS DOUBTFUL THAT ANY
MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...SO LOOK FOR SUNNY DAY TODAY. 592
DM HGTS OVER THE AREA AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO KDAG AND ACTUALLY
OFFSHORE FLOW FROM KBFL WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM DAY. ALL AREAS
WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND THERE WILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS IN THE WARMEST VLY LOCATIONS AS WELL ALMOST THEN ENTIRE
ANTELOPE VLY.

NOT MUCH EXCITEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE
600 DM UPPER IS OVER COLORADO AND A WEAK TROF IS LYING JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE COAST. THERE IS CURRENTLY SW FLOW OVER CA. OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS THE UPPER HIGH WILL BULGE AND EXPAND WESTWARD. BY FRIDAY
THE HIGH WILL COVER MUCH OF THE STATE AND ALL OF SO CAL. THE HIGH
ACTUALLY WEAKENS A BIT WHEN IT EXPANDS SO HGTS ACTUALLY FALL A FEW
DM THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT THIS WILL NOT AFFECT THE
TEMPERATURES MUCH.

MAX TEMPS WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS AS THERE
WILL BE NEAR NEUTRAL FLOW TO KDAG AND INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW FROM
KBFL. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS WILL BE THE NORM IN THE VLYS AND INLAND
AREAS AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF 80S AND SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS
ACROSS THE COASTS. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW RECORDS BROKEN WHEN
THE DAY IS DONE.  FALLING HGTS AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL COOL
THINGS A LITTLE (MOSTLY AT THE COAST) ON FRIDAY.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE NO CLOUDS AGAIN THURSDAY. MDLS
INSIST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SO KEPT THE MINIMAL CLOUDS IN FOR THE
SW LA COAST AND THE CENTRAL COAST. BUT AGAIN THIS MAY BE OVERDONE.
THE NAM SHOWS THE BAREST OF EDDYS ON FRIDAY AND THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH
TO DEVELOP AT LEAST A FEW CLOUDS.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE A DECENT SUNDOWNER
TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH
THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SBA SOUTH COAST.
THIS KIND OF SITUATION OFTEN BRINGS SBA CITY THERE MAX TEMPERATURE
AT SUNSET AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TODAY IS ONE OF THOSE DAYS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
NOTHING BUT HEAT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SIT
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL COVER
CALIFORNIA. HGTS REMAIN NEAR 592 DM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DAY TO DAY
CHANGE. THE MONSOON DOOR WILL BE OPEN BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MOISTURE AND EASTERLY WAVES WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF LA COUNTY.
THESE ARE THE SUBTLE DETAILS THE MDLS REALLY CANT HANDLE SO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION TO MAKE SURE NO MOISTURE SNEAKS INTO
THE AREA. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MAY DEVELOP ALONG SOME THE BEACHES
BUT FOR THE MOST PART THERE WILL BE NO STRATUS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND SETTLES OVER YUMA.
THIS WILL CUT OFF ANY MONSOON CHC BUT IT MAY WARM THINGS UP A DEGREE
OR TWO.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW NO LET UP IN THE HEAT THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

THE FANTASYLAND GFS XTND XTND SOLN SHOWS NO LET UP FROM THE RIDGE
UNTIL AUGUST 3RD OR 4TH.

&&

.AVIATION...

23/1115Z

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE PATCH OF IFR/LIFR
STRATUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ANY COASTAL TAF THIS MORNING. FOR
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO CENTRAL
COAST TAFS AND KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z). FOR TONIGHT...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT ANY CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...23/200 AM...

FOR OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PZZ673/676 THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 230558
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXPANDS WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY FOR THE DESERT AND SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD WEST OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND THE
MARINE LAYER DEPTH...CURRENTLY AROUND 550 FEET...THINS. A SHARP
SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM AIR MASS
SETTLES IN. WITH THE THIN MARINE LAYER DEPTH...DENSE FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE ADDED
TO THE PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED A LITTLE MORE STRONGLY THAN
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE
TIGHTENED TO -4 MB THIS EVENING...AND A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. WINDS GUSTS UP 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF GOLETA AND THROUGH GAVIOTA.
STRONGER SUNDOWNER WINDS REMAIN ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED BY FUTURE
SHIFTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...A LITTLE BETTER SCENARIO FOR WED NIGHT AND A LOW END
ADVISORY PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED THEN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A
VERY WARM SUNDOWNER EVENT WITH EVENING TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING INTO
THE 90S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CURRENT FORECAST ONLY HAS HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SBA BUT THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE. RECORD
HIGH FOR SBA WED IS 93 WHICH IS PROBABLY OUT OF REACH...BUT THE
RECORD OF 82 THU IS ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING DOWN.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR COAST/VALLEYS. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY FLOW...EVEN SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WITH GRADIENTS NEAR NEUTRAL AND 950 TEMPS 30C OR HIGHER SHOULD
PUSH WARMER VALLEY TEMPS CLOSE TO 105 AND INLAND COASTAL AREAS
AROUND 90. IF THERE ARE ANY MARINE LYR CLOUDS LEFT AT THAT POINT
THEY WOULD BE SURFACE BASED WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITIES SO PATCHY
DENSE FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR SOME BEACHES THU.

ON FRIDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A WEAK EDDY
CIRCULATION SPINNING UP. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT IT`S NOT
LIKELY TO RESULT IN MUCH DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LYR BUT THERE
COULD BE AN EXPANSION OF DENSE FOG COVERAGE FOR COASTAL AREAS.
THE RESULTING COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A 1-2 MB ONSHORE
TREND SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF TO LOWER ELEVATIONS
FRIDAY...BUT STILL AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE SO IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION CENTERS ON MONSOON MOISTURE
AND POSSIBLE EASTERLY WAVES THAT COULD HELP INITIATE CONVECTION.
MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND FORTH ON THIS ISSUE THE LAST FEW DAYS
AND PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO. CERTAINLY THE DOOR IS OPEN
FOR MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AT PRESENT ONLY THE
ECMWF IS REALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF MOISTURE AND
KICKERS BUT THE GFS DOES HINT AT IT WITH 850 DEWPOINTS RISING TO
AROUND 4C OVER THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS. THE ECMWF HAS A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND
INTO OUR AREA LATE SAT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IT SHOWED A COUPLE DAYS
AGO. SUCH A FEATURE COULD EVEN GENERATE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ANYWHERE OVER OUR CWA SO THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
FOR NOW AM KEEPING POPS BELOW 15 AND ADDING IN SOME CLOUDS TO THE
FORECAST. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES LIKELY WON`T CHANGE
MUCH...HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...

23/0545Z

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BUT THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS AT ALL COASTAL TAF SITES 10Z-16Z.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC OF IFR/LIFR CIGS
10Z-16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/900 PM.

FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO OUTER WATERS
ZONES.

FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INNER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN SANTA BARBRA CHANNEL THROUGH
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.
LOCAL GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION
OF ZONES 650 AND 655.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 230558
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXPANDS WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY FOR THE DESERT AND SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD WEST OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND THE
MARINE LAYER DEPTH...CURRENTLY AROUND 550 FEET...THINS. A SHARP
SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM AIR MASS
SETTLES IN. WITH THE THIN MARINE LAYER DEPTH...DENSE FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE ADDED
TO THE PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED A LITTLE MORE STRONGLY THAN
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE
TIGHTENED TO -4 MB THIS EVENING...AND A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. WINDS GUSTS UP 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF GOLETA AND THROUGH GAVIOTA.
STRONGER SUNDOWNER WINDS REMAIN ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED BY FUTURE
SHIFTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...A LITTLE BETTER SCENARIO FOR WED NIGHT AND A LOW END
ADVISORY PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED THEN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A
VERY WARM SUNDOWNER EVENT WITH EVENING TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING INTO
THE 90S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CURRENT FORECAST ONLY HAS HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SBA BUT THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE. RECORD
HIGH FOR SBA WED IS 93 WHICH IS PROBABLY OUT OF REACH...BUT THE
RECORD OF 82 THU IS ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING DOWN.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR COAST/VALLEYS. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY FLOW...EVEN SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WITH GRADIENTS NEAR NEUTRAL AND 950 TEMPS 30C OR HIGHER SHOULD
PUSH WARMER VALLEY TEMPS CLOSE TO 105 AND INLAND COASTAL AREAS
AROUND 90. IF THERE ARE ANY MARINE LYR CLOUDS LEFT AT THAT POINT
THEY WOULD BE SURFACE BASED WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITIES SO PATCHY
DENSE FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR SOME BEACHES THU.

ON FRIDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A WEAK EDDY
CIRCULATION SPINNING UP. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT IT`S NOT
LIKELY TO RESULT IN MUCH DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LYR BUT THERE
COULD BE AN EXPANSION OF DENSE FOG COVERAGE FOR COASTAL AREAS.
THE RESULTING COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A 1-2 MB ONSHORE
TREND SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF TO LOWER ELEVATIONS
FRIDAY...BUT STILL AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE SO IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION CENTERS ON MONSOON MOISTURE
AND POSSIBLE EASTERLY WAVES THAT COULD HELP INITIATE CONVECTION.
MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND FORTH ON THIS ISSUE THE LAST FEW DAYS
AND PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO. CERTAINLY THE DOOR IS OPEN
FOR MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AT PRESENT ONLY THE
ECMWF IS REALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF MOISTURE AND
KICKERS BUT THE GFS DOES HINT AT IT WITH 850 DEWPOINTS RISING TO
AROUND 4C OVER THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS. THE ECMWF HAS A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND
INTO OUR AREA LATE SAT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IT SHOWED A COUPLE DAYS
AGO. SUCH A FEATURE COULD EVEN GENERATE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ANYWHERE OVER OUR CWA SO THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
FOR NOW AM KEEPING POPS BELOW 15 AND ADDING IN SOME CLOUDS TO THE
FORECAST. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES LIKELY WON`T CHANGE
MUCH...HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...

23/0545Z

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BUT THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS AT ALL COASTAL TAF SITES 10Z-16Z.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC OF IFR/LIFR CIGS
10Z-16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/900 PM.

FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO OUTER WATERS
ZONES.

FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INNER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN SANTA BARBRA CHANNEL THROUGH
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.
LOCAL GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION
OF ZONES 650 AND 655.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 230409
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
909 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXPANDS WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY FOR THE DESERT AND SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD WEST OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND THE
MARINE LAYER DEPTH...CURRENTLY AROUND 550 FEET...THINS. A SHARP
SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM AIR MASS
SETTLES IN. WITH THE THIN MARINE LAYER DEPTH...DENSE FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE ADDED
TO THE PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED A LITTLE MORE STRONGLY THAN
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE
TIGHTENED TO -4 MB THIS EVENING...AND A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. WINDS GUSTS UP 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF GOLETA AND THROUGH GAVIOTA.
STRONGER SUNDOWNER WINDS REMAIN ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED BY FUTURE
SHIFTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...A LITTLE BETTER SCENARIO FOR WED NIGHT AND A LOW END
ADVISORY PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED THEN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A
VERY WARM SUNDOWNER EVENT WITH EVENING TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING INTO
THE 90S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CURRENT FORECAST ONLY HAS HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SBA BUT THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE. RECORD
HIGH FOR SBA WED IS 93 WHICH IS PROBABLY OUT OF REACH...BUT THE
RECORD OF 82 THU IS ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING DOWN.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR COAST/VALLEYS. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY FLOW...EVEN SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WITH GRADIENTS NEAR NEUTRAL AND 950 TEMPS 30C OR HIGHER SHOULD
PUSH WARMER VALLEY TEMPS CLOSE TO 105 AND INLAND COASTAL AREAS
AROUND 90. IF THERE ARE ANY MARINE LYR CLOUDS LEFT AT THAT POINT
THEY WOULD BE SURFACE BASED WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITIES SO PATCHY
DENSE FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR SOME BEACHES THU.

ON FRIDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A WEAK EDDY
CIRCULATION SPINNING UP. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT IT`S NOT
LIKELY TO RESULT IN MUCH DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LYR BUT THERE
COULD BE AN EXPANSION OF DENSE FOG COVERAGE FOR COASTAL AREAS.
THE RESULTING COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A 1-2 MB ONSHORE
TREND SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF TO LOWER ELEVATIONS
FRIDAY...BUT STILL AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE SO IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION CENTERS ON MONSOON MOISTURE
AND POSSIBLE EASTERLY WAVES THAT COULD HELP INITIATE CONVECTION.
MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND FORTH ON THIS ISSUE THE LAST FEW DAYS
AND PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO. CERTAINLY THE DOOR IS OPEN
FOR MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AT PRESENT ONLY THE
ECMWF IS REALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF MOISTURE AND
KICKERS BUT THE GFS DOES HINT AT IT WITH 850 DEWPOINTS RISING TO
AROUND 4C OVER THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS. THE ECMWF HAS A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND
INTO OUR AREA LATE SAT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IT SHOWED A COUPLE DAYS
AGO. SUCH A FEATURE COULD EVEN GENERATE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ANYWHERE OVER OUR CWA SO THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
FOR NOW AM KEEPING POPS BELOW 15 AND ADDING IN SOME CLOUDS TO THE
FORECAST. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES LIKELY WON`T CHANGE
MUCH...HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/0113Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z...THEN LIFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR MOST COASTAL TERMINALS.
THE BEST CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR TERMINALS NORTH OF
POINT CONDITIONS...BUT LIFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP
BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
VALLEY TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z...THEN THERE
IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND
16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 13Z AND
15Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO
WIND ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...22/900 PM.

FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO OUTER WATERS
ZONES.

FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INNER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN SANTA BARBRA CHANNEL THROUGH
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.
LOCAL GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION
OF ZONES 650 AND 655.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 230409
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
909 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXPANDS WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY FOR THE DESERT AND SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD WEST OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND THE
MARINE LAYER DEPTH...CURRENTLY AROUND 550 FEET...THINS. A SHARP
SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM AIR MASS
SETTLES IN. WITH THE THIN MARINE LAYER DEPTH...DENSE FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE ADDED
TO THE PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED A LITTLE MORE STRONGLY THAN
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE
TIGHTENED TO -4 MB THIS EVENING...AND A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. WINDS GUSTS UP 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF GOLETA AND THROUGH GAVIOTA.
STRONGER SUNDOWNER WINDS REMAIN ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED BY FUTURE
SHIFTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...A LITTLE BETTER SCENARIO FOR WED NIGHT AND A LOW END
ADVISORY PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED THEN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A
VERY WARM SUNDOWNER EVENT WITH EVENING TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING INTO
THE 90S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CURRENT FORECAST ONLY HAS HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SBA BUT THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE. RECORD
HIGH FOR SBA WED IS 93 WHICH IS PROBABLY OUT OF REACH...BUT THE
RECORD OF 82 THU IS ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING DOWN.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR COAST/VALLEYS. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY FLOW...EVEN SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WITH GRADIENTS NEAR NEUTRAL AND 950 TEMPS 30C OR HIGHER SHOULD
PUSH WARMER VALLEY TEMPS CLOSE TO 105 AND INLAND COASTAL AREAS
AROUND 90. IF THERE ARE ANY MARINE LYR CLOUDS LEFT AT THAT POINT
THEY WOULD BE SURFACE BASED WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITIES SO PATCHY
DENSE FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR SOME BEACHES THU.

ON FRIDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A WEAK EDDY
CIRCULATION SPINNING UP. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT IT`S NOT
LIKELY TO RESULT IN MUCH DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LYR BUT THERE
COULD BE AN EXPANSION OF DENSE FOG COVERAGE FOR COASTAL AREAS.
THE RESULTING COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A 1-2 MB ONSHORE
TREND SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF TO LOWER ELEVATIONS
FRIDAY...BUT STILL AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE SO IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION CENTERS ON MONSOON MOISTURE
AND POSSIBLE EASTERLY WAVES THAT COULD HELP INITIATE CONVECTION.
MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND FORTH ON THIS ISSUE THE LAST FEW DAYS
AND PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO. CERTAINLY THE DOOR IS OPEN
FOR MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AT PRESENT ONLY THE
ECMWF IS REALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF MOISTURE AND
KICKERS BUT THE GFS DOES HINT AT IT WITH 850 DEWPOINTS RISING TO
AROUND 4C OVER THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS. THE ECMWF HAS A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND
INTO OUR AREA LATE SAT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IT SHOWED A COUPLE DAYS
AGO. SUCH A FEATURE COULD EVEN GENERATE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ANYWHERE OVER OUR CWA SO THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
FOR NOW AM KEEPING POPS BELOW 15 AND ADDING IN SOME CLOUDS TO THE
FORECAST. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES LIKELY WON`T CHANGE
MUCH...HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/0113Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z...THEN LIFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR MOST COASTAL TERMINALS.
THE BEST CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR TERMINALS NORTH OF
POINT CONDITIONS...BUT LIFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP
BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
VALLEY TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z...THEN THERE
IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND
16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 13Z AND
15Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO
WIND ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...22/900 PM.

FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO OUTER WATERS
ZONES.

FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INNER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN SANTA BARBRA CHANNEL THROUGH
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.
LOCAL GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION
OF ZONES 650 AND 655.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 230113 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
613 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO OUR REGION BRINGING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL OCCUR
INTO THURSDAY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND SUNDOWNERS FOR SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...OUR WARMING TREND HAS OFFICIALLY BEGUN.
NOT QUITE A "HEAT WAVE" YET BUT WE`RE QUICKLY MOVING IN THAT
DIRECTION. TEMPS TODAY HAVE BEEN UP AROUND 3 DEGREES ON AVERAGE.
COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND WED WHILE INLAND AREAS JUMP
UP AROUND 6 DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS, BRINGING THE WARMER VALLEYS
CLOSE TO 100. MARINE LYR CLOUDS HAVE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED EVEN FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS AND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS I SUSPECT AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION WILL ONLY HAVE
SMALL PATCHES OF LOW BASED CLOUDS AND FOG, MAINLY SRN LA COUNTY.
BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUD FORMATION ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST LATER
TONIGHT.

THE INCREASE IN NW FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
SUNDOWNERS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. TONIGHT LIKELY WILL BE A
SUB-ADVISORY EVENT WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 MPH BELOW THE
WESTERN PASSES. A LITTLE BETTER SCENARIO FOR WED NIGHT AND A LOW END
ADVISORY PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED THEN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY
WARM SUNDOWNER EVENT WITH EVENING TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING INTO THE 90S
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CURRENT FORECAST ONLY HAS HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR SBA BUT THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE. RECORD HIGH FOR SBA WED
IS 93 WHICH IS PROBABLY OUT OF REACH, BUT THE RECORD OF 82 THU IS
ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING DOWN.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR COAST/VALLEYS. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY FLOW, EVEN SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH
GRADIENTS NEAR NEUTRAL AND 950 TEMPS 30C OR HIGHER SHOULD PUSH
WARMER VALLEY TEMPS CLOSE TO 105 AND INLAND COASTAL AREAS AROUND 90.
IF THERE ARE ANY MARINE LYR CLOUDS LEFT AT THAT POINT THEY WOULD BE
SURFACE BASED WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITIES SO PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD
BE AN ISSUE FOR SOME BEACHES THU.

ON FRIDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A WEAK EDDY
CIRCULATION SPINNING UP. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT IT`S NOT LIKELY
TO RESULT IN MUCH DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LYR BUT THERE COULD BE AN
EXPANSION OF DENSE FOG COVERAGE FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE RESULTING
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A 1-2 MB ONSHORE TREND SHOULD
BRING A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF TO LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY, BUT STILL
AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE SO
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION CENTERS ON MONSOON MOISTURE
AND POSSIBLE EASTERLY WAVES THAT COULD HELP INITIATE CONVECTION.
MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND FORTH ON THIS ISSUE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO. CERTAINLY THE DOOR IS OPEN FOR
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AT PRESENT ONLY THE ECMWF IS
REALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF MOISTURE AND KICKERS BUT THE
GFS DOES HINT AT IT WITH 850 DEWPOINTS RISING TO AROUND 4C OVER THE
EASTERN SAN GABRIELS. THE ECMWF HAS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND INTO OUR AREA LATE SAT,
SIMILAR TO WHAT IT SHOWED A COUPLE DAYS AGO. SUCH A FEATURE COULD
EVEN GENERATE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ANYWHERE OVER OUR CWA SO THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. FOR NOW AM KEEPING POPS BELOW 15
AND ADDING IN SOME CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES
LIKELY WON`T CHANGE MUCH, HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/0113Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z...THEN LIFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR MOST COASTAL TERMINALS.
THE BEST CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR TERMINALS NORTH OF
POINT CONDITIONS...BUT LIFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP
BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
VALLEY TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z...THEN THERE
IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND
16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 13Z AND
15Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO
WIND ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...22/200 PM.

FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO OUTER WATERS
ZONES.

FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE INNER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL POSSIBLY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE INNER
WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 230113 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
613 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO OUR REGION BRINGING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL OCCUR
INTO THURSDAY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND SUNDOWNERS FOR SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...OUR WARMING TREND HAS OFFICIALLY BEGUN.
NOT QUITE A "HEAT WAVE" YET BUT WE`RE QUICKLY MOVING IN THAT
DIRECTION. TEMPS TODAY HAVE BEEN UP AROUND 3 DEGREES ON AVERAGE.
COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND WED WHILE INLAND AREAS JUMP
UP AROUND 6 DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS, BRINGING THE WARMER VALLEYS
CLOSE TO 100. MARINE LYR CLOUDS HAVE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED EVEN FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS AND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS I SUSPECT AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION WILL ONLY HAVE
SMALL PATCHES OF LOW BASED CLOUDS AND FOG, MAINLY SRN LA COUNTY.
BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUD FORMATION ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST LATER
TONIGHT.

THE INCREASE IN NW FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
SUNDOWNERS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. TONIGHT LIKELY WILL BE A
SUB-ADVISORY EVENT WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 MPH BELOW THE
WESTERN PASSES. A LITTLE BETTER SCENARIO FOR WED NIGHT AND A LOW END
ADVISORY PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED THEN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY
WARM SUNDOWNER EVENT WITH EVENING TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING INTO THE 90S
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CURRENT FORECAST ONLY HAS HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR SBA BUT THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE. RECORD HIGH FOR SBA WED
IS 93 WHICH IS PROBABLY OUT OF REACH, BUT THE RECORD OF 82 THU IS
ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING DOWN.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR COAST/VALLEYS. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY FLOW, EVEN SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH
GRADIENTS NEAR NEUTRAL AND 950 TEMPS 30C OR HIGHER SHOULD PUSH
WARMER VALLEY TEMPS CLOSE TO 105 AND INLAND COASTAL AREAS AROUND 90.
IF THERE ARE ANY MARINE LYR CLOUDS LEFT AT THAT POINT THEY WOULD BE
SURFACE BASED WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITIES SO PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD
BE AN ISSUE FOR SOME BEACHES THU.

ON FRIDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A WEAK EDDY
CIRCULATION SPINNING UP. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT IT`S NOT LIKELY
TO RESULT IN MUCH DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LYR BUT THERE COULD BE AN
EXPANSION OF DENSE FOG COVERAGE FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE RESULTING
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A 1-2 MB ONSHORE TREND SHOULD
BRING A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF TO LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY, BUT STILL
AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE SO
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION CENTERS ON MONSOON MOISTURE
AND POSSIBLE EASTERLY WAVES THAT COULD HELP INITIATE CONVECTION.
MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND FORTH ON THIS ISSUE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO. CERTAINLY THE DOOR IS OPEN FOR
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AT PRESENT ONLY THE ECMWF IS
REALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF MOISTURE AND KICKERS BUT THE
GFS DOES HINT AT IT WITH 850 DEWPOINTS RISING TO AROUND 4C OVER THE
EASTERN SAN GABRIELS. THE ECMWF HAS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND INTO OUR AREA LATE SAT,
SIMILAR TO WHAT IT SHOWED A COUPLE DAYS AGO. SUCH A FEATURE COULD
EVEN GENERATE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ANYWHERE OVER OUR CWA SO THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. FOR NOW AM KEEPING POPS BELOW 15
AND ADDING IN SOME CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES
LIKELY WON`T CHANGE MUCH, HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/0113Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z...THEN LIFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR MOST COASTAL TERMINALS.
THE BEST CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR TERMINALS NORTH OF
POINT CONDITIONS...BUT LIFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP
BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
VALLEY TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z...THEN THERE
IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND
16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 13Z AND
15Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO
WIND ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...22/200 PM.

FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO OUTER WATERS
ZONES.

FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE INNER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL POSSIBLY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE INNER
WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 222021
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO OUR REGION BRINGING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL OCCUR
INTO THURSDAY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND SUNDOWNERS FOR SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...OUR WARMING TREND HAS OFFICIALLY BEGUN.
NOT QUITE A "HEAT WAVE" YET BUT WE`RE QUICKLY MOVING IN THAT
DIRECTION. TEMPS TODAY HAVE BEEN UP AROUND 3 DEGREES ON AVERAGE.
COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND WED WHILE INLAND AREAS JUMP
UP AROUND 6 DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS, BRINGING THE WARMER VALLEYS
CLOSE TO 100. MARINE LYR CLOUDS HAVE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED EVEN FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS AND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS I SUSPECT AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION WILL ONLY HAVE
SMALL PATCHES OF LOW BASED CLOUDS AND FOG, MAINLY SRN LA COUNTY.
BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUD FORMATION ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST LATER
TONIGHT.

THE INCREASE IN NW FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
SUNDOWNERS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. TONIGHT LIKELY WILL BE A
SUB-ADVISORY EVENT WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 MPH BELOW THE
WESTERN PASSES. A LITTLE BETTER SCENARIO FOR WED NIGHT AND A LOW END
ADVISORY PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED THEN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY
WARM SUNDOWNER EVENT WITH EVENING TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING INTO THE 90S
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CURRENT FORECAST ONLY HAS HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR SBA BUT THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE. RECORD HIGH FOR SBA WED
IS 93 WHICH IS PROBABLY OUT OF REACH, BUT THE RECORD OF 82 THU IS
ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING DOWN.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR COAST/VALLEYS. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY FLOW, EVEN SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH
GRADIENTS NEAR NEUTRAL AND 950 TEMPS 30C OR HIGHER SHOULD PUSH
WARMER VALLEY TEMPS CLOSE TO 105 AND INLAND COASTAL AREAS AROUND 90.
IF THERE ARE ANY MARINE LYR CLOUDS LEFT AT THAT POINT THEY WOULD BE
SURFACE BASED WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITIES SO PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD
BE AN ISSUE FOR SOME BEACHES THU.

ON FRIDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A WEAK EDDY
CIRCULATION SPINNING UP. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT IT`S NOT LIKELY
TO RESULT IN MUCH DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LYR BUT THERE COULD BE AN
EXPANSION OF DENSE FOG COVERAGE FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE RESULTING
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A 1-2 MB ONSHORE TREND SHOULD
BRING A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF TO LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY, BUT STILL
AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE SO
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION CENTERS ON MONSOON MOISTURE
AND POSSIBLE EASTERLY WAVES THAT COULD HELP INITIATE CONVECTION.
MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND FORTH ON THIS ISSUE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO. CERTAINLY THE DOOR IS OPEN FOR
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AT PRESENT ONLY THE ECMWF IS
REALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF MOISTURE AND KICKERS BUT THE
GFS DOES HINT AT IT WITH 850 DEWPOINTS RISING TO AROUND 4C OVER THE
EASTERN SAN GABRIELS. THE ECMWF HAS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND INTO OUR AREA LATE SAT,
SIMILAR TO WHAT IT SHOWED A COUPLE DAYS AGO. SUCH A FEATURE COULD
EVEN GENERATE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ANYWHERE OVER OUR CWA SO THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. FOR NOW AM KEEPING POPS BELOW 15
AND ADDING IN SOME CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES
LIKELY WON`T CHANGE MUCH, HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1800Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. MINIMAL MARINE CLOUD
COVERAGE WITH A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF 1000 FEET. LA COUNTY COASTAL
SECTIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTH COAST OF SANTA BARBARA WILL REMAIN CLEAR DUE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS BUT LITTLE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT TURBULENCE. OTHERWISE...SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN IFR
CONDITIONS MOVE IN WITH MARINE CLOUD COVERAGE. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...22/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO OUTER WATERS
ZONES (A GALE WATCH CONTINUES THIS MORNING).

FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE INNER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL POSSIBLY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE INNER
WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 222021
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO OUR REGION BRINGING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL OCCUR
INTO THURSDAY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND SUNDOWNERS FOR SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...OUR WARMING TREND HAS OFFICIALLY BEGUN.
NOT QUITE A "HEAT WAVE" YET BUT WE`RE QUICKLY MOVING IN THAT
DIRECTION. TEMPS TODAY HAVE BEEN UP AROUND 3 DEGREES ON AVERAGE.
COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND WED WHILE INLAND AREAS JUMP
UP AROUND 6 DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS, BRINGING THE WARMER VALLEYS
CLOSE TO 100. MARINE LYR CLOUDS HAVE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED EVEN FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS AND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS I SUSPECT AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION WILL ONLY HAVE
SMALL PATCHES OF LOW BASED CLOUDS AND FOG, MAINLY SRN LA COUNTY.
BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUD FORMATION ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST LATER
TONIGHT.

THE INCREASE IN NW FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
SUNDOWNERS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. TONIGHT LIKELY WILL BE A
SUB-ADVISORY EVENT WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 MPH BELOW THE
WESTERN PASSES. A LITTLE BETTER SCENARIO FOR WED NIGHT AND A LOW END
ADVISORY PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED THEN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY
WARM SUNDOWNER EVENT WITH EVENING TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING INTO THE 90S
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CURRENT FORECAST ONLY HAS HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR SBA BUT THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE. RECORD HIGH FOR SBA WED
IS 93 WHICH IS PROBABLY OUT OF REACH, BUT THE RECORD OF 82 THU IS
ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING DOWN.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR COAST/VALLEYS. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY FLOW, EVEN SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH
GRADIENTS NEAR NEUTRAL AND 950 TEMPS 30C OR HIGHER SHOULD PUSH
WARMER VALLEY TEMPS CLOSE TO 105 AND INLAND COASTAL AREAS AROUND 90.
IF THERE ARE ANY MARINE LYR CLOUDS LEFT AT THAT POINT THEY WOULD BE
SURFACE BASED WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITIES SO PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD
BE AN ISSUE FOR SOME BEACHES THU.

ON FRIDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A WEAK EDDY
CIRCULATION SPINNING UP. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT IT`S NOT LIKELY
TO RESULT IN MUCH DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LYR BUT THERE COULD BE AN
EXPANSION OF DENSE FOG COVERAGE FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE RESULTING
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A 1-2 MB ONSHORE TREND SHOULD
BRING A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF TO LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY, BUT STILL
AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE SO
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION CENTERS ON MONSOON MOISTURE
AND POSSIBLE EASTERLY WAVES THAT COULD HELP INITIATE CONVECTION.
MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND FORTH ON THIS ISSUE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO. CERTAINLY THE DOOR IS OPEN FOR
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AT PRESENT ONLY THE ECMWF IS
REALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF MOISTURE AND KICKERS BUT THE
GFS DOES HINT AT IT WITH 850 DEWPOINTS RISING TO AROUND 4C OVER THE
EASTERN SAN GABRIELS. THE ECMWF HAS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND INTO OUR AREA LATE SAT,
SIMILAR TO WHAT IT SHOWED A COUPLE DAYS AGO. SUCH A FEATURE COULD
EVEN GENERATE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ANYWHERE OVER OUR CWA SO THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. FOR NOW AM KEEPING POPS BELOW 15
AND ADDING IN SOME CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES
LIKELY WON`T CHANGE MUCH, HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1800Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. MINIMAL MARINE CLOUD
COVERAGE WITH A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF 1000 FEET. LA COUNTY COASTAL
SECTIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTH COAST OF SANTA BARBARA WILL REMAIN CLEAR DUE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS BUT LITTLE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT TURBULENCE. OTHERWISE...SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN IFR
CONDITIONS MOVE IN WITH MARINE CLOUD COVERAGE. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...22/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO OUTER WATERS
ZONES (A GALE WATCH CONTINUES THIS MORNING).

FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE INNER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL POSSIBLY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE INNER
WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 221749
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL EXPAND WEST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND A REDUCTION IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE DESERT AND THE HOTTEST VALLEY LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING WESTWARD FROM THE
4 CORNERS REGION WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TO THE AREA
THROUGH THU. WARMER VALLEY AREAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 100 WED THEN A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THU WHICH SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS THU ARE WELL OVER 100 SO
PRETTY TOUGH TO CATCH BUT NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
COASTAL AREA RECORDS MORE WITHIN REACH, ESPECIALLY SBA AT ONLY 82.

MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PATCHY NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
INCREASING NW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

INCREASING NW FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SUNDOWNERS TO THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A FAIRLY WEAK EVENT TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
GAVIOTA AREA. BUT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
NORTHERLY AND A LITTLE STRONGER WHICH SHOULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS TO MOST OF THE CANYONS. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN THE
SOME 900PM MAX TEMPS FOR SOUTH SBA COASTAL LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL 4 DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOK VERY SIMILAR AND VERY WARM. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER WESTWARD AND
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS WILL SHRINK AND WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
BEACHES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CURRENT FCST
DOES NOT SHOW ANY MONSOON CONNECTION BUT THE UPPER HIGH PLACEMENT IS
IN A POSITION FAVORABLE FOR SOME SORT OF MONSOON FLOW. DID NOT ADD
ANY CLOUDS OR TSTM CHCS BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BE A PRETTY GOOD HEAT SIEGE AS THE EXTENDED MDLS KEEP
THE UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD THROUGH DAY 10. LOOKING AT THE FANTASYLAND
XTND FCST IT SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON AUGUST 1ST.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1800Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. MINIMAL MARINE CLOUD
COVERAGE WITH A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF 1000 FEET. LA COUNTY COASTAL
SECTIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTH COAST OF SANTA BARBARA WILL REMAIN CLEAR DUE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS BUT LITTLE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT TURBULENCE. OTHERWISE...SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN IFR
CONDITIONS MOVE IN WITH MARINE CLOUD COVERAGE. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...22/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO OUTER WATERS
ZONES (A GALE WATCH CONTINUES THIS MORNING).

FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE INNER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL POSSIBLY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE INNER
WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 221749
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL EXPAND WEST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND A REDUCTION IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE DESERT AND THE HOTTEST VALLEY LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING WESTWARD FROM THE
4 CORNERS REGION WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TO THE AREA
THROUGH THU. WARMER VALLEY AREAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 100 WED THEN A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THU WHICH SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS THU ARE WELL OVER 100 SO
PRETTY TOUGH TO CATCH BUT NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
COASTAL AREA RECORDS MORE WITHIN REACH, ESPECIALLY SBA AT ONLY 82.

MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PATCHY NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
INCREASING NW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

INCREASING NW FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SUNDOWNERS TO THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A FAIRLY WEAK EVENT TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
GAVIOTA AREA. BUT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
NORTHERLY AND A LITTLE STRONGER WHICH SHOULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS TO MOST OF THE CANYONS. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN THE
SOME 900PM MAX TEMPS FOR SOUTH SBA COASTAL LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL 4 DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOK VERY SIMILAR AND VERY WARM. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER WESTWARD AND
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS WILL SHRINK AND WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
BEACHES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CURRENT FCST
DOES NOT SHOW ANY MONSOON CONNECTION BUT THE UPPER HIGH PLACEMENT IS
IN A POSITION FAVORABLE FOR SOME SORT OF MONSOON FLOW. DID NOT ADD
ANY CLOUDS OR TSTM CHCS BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BE A PRETTY GOOD HEAT SIEGE AS THE EXTENDED MDLS KEEP
THE UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD THROUGH DAY 10. LOOKING AT THE FANTASYLAND
XTND FCST IT SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON AUGUST 1ST.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1800Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. MINIMAL MARINE CLOUD
COVERAGE WITH A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF 1000 FEET. LA COUNTY COASTAL
SECTIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTH COAST OF SANTA BARBARA WILL REMAIN CLEAR DUE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS BUT LITTLE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT TURBULENCE. OTHERWISE...SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN IFR
CONDITIONS MOVE IN WITH MARINE CLOUD COVERAGE. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...22/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO OUTER WATERS
ZONES (A GALE WATCH CONTINUES THIS MORNING).

FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE INNER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL POSSIBLY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE INNER
WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 221614
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL EXPAND WEST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND A REDUCTION IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE DESERT AND THE HOTTEST VALLEY LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING WESTWARD FROM THE
4 CORNERS REGION WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TO THE AREA
THROUGH THU. WARMER VALLEY AREAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 100 WED THEN A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THU WHICH SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS THU ARE WELL OVER 100 SO
PRETTY TOUGH TO CATCH BUT NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
COASTAL AREA RECORDS MORE WITHIN REACH, ESPECIALLY SBA AT ONLY 82.

MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PATCHY NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
INCREASING NW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

INCREASING NW FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SUNDOWNERS TO THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A FAIRLY WEAK EVENT TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
GAVIOTA AREA. BUT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
NORTHERLY AND A LITTLE STRONGER WHICH SHOULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS TO MOST OF THE CANYONS. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN THE
SOME 900PM MAX TEMPS FOR SOUTH SBA COASTAL LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL 4 DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOK VERY SIMILAR AND VERY WARM. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER WESTWARD AND
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS WILL SHRINK AND WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
BEACHES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CURRENT FCST
DOES NOT SHOW ANY MONSOON CONNECTION BUT THE UPPER HIGH PLACEMENT IS
IN A POSITION FAVORABLE FOR SOME SORT OF MONSOON FLOW. DID NOT ADD
ANY CLOUDS OR TSTM CHCS BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BE A PRETTY GOOD HEAT SIEGE AS THE EXTENDED MDLS KEEP
THE UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD THROUGH DAY 10. LOOKING AT THE FANTASYLAND
XTND FCST IT SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON AUGUST 1ST.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1125Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST AMDAR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION BASED AROUND 1000 FEET. STRATUS IS
STRUGGLING TO ESTABLISH THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY
PATCHY THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP COASTAL TAFS STRATUS-FREE THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS (ESPECIALLY AT KSMX). FOR TONIGHT...WILL EXPECT ANY STRATUS
THAT DEVELOPS TO REMAIN LOW (IFR/LIFR LEVELS) AND CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF
IFR CIGS TONIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO OUTER WATERS
ZONES (A GALE WATCH CONTINUES THIS MORNING).

FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE INNER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL POSSIBLY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE INNER
WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 221126 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL EXPAND WEST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND A REDUCTION IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE DESERT AND THE HOTTEST VALLEY LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
LATEST SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX ARE STRUGGLING TO FIND A MARINE LAYER
BUT THEY DO SHOW AN INCREASING INVERSION TOPPING OUT AROUND 1400
FEET. MARINE STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO DEVELOP AND WILL LIKELY
BE ONLY PATCHY AT BEST COME SUNRISE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS A SOCAL WILL
BE WEDGED BETWEEN A LARGE SW UPPER HIGH AND A WEST COAST TROF. THE
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXPAND WESTWARD DURING THE PERIOD.

SINCE THE INVERSION IS A LITTLE STRONGER NOW AND WILL BECOME
STRONGER WITH THE WESTWARD APPROACH OF THE UPPER HIGH THE MARINE
LAYER WILL REFORM SLIGHTLY. STILL HARD TO SEE A GREAT DEAL OF
STRATUS AND THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ONLY LIMITED COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LA COAST AND THE CENTRAL COAST.

MAX TEMPS WILL INCREASE SOME EACH DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH TOP NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXCEED NORMALS
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM IN THE 1000 TO 1200 FOOT
ELEVATIONS AS THIS WHERE THE MAX TEMP OF THE INVERSION WILL BE.

INCREASING NW FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SUNDOWNERS TO THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A FAIRLY WEAK EVENT TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
GAVIOTA AREA. BUT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
NORTHERLY AND A LITTLE STRONGER WHICH SHOULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS TO MOST OF THE CANYONS. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN THE
SOME 900PM MAX TEMPS FOR SOUTH SBA COASTAL LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL 4 DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOK VERY SIMILAR AND VERY WARM. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER WESTWARD AND
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS WILL SHRINK AND WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
BEACHES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CURRENT FCST
DOES NOT SHOW ANY MONSOON CONNECTION BUT THE UPPER HIGH PLACEMENT IS
IN A POSITION FAVORABLE FOR SOME SORT OF MONSOON FLOW. DID NOT ADD
ANY CLOUDS OR TSTM CHCS BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BE A PRETTY GOOD HEAT SIEGE AS THE EXTENDED MDLS KEEP
THE UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD THROUGH DAY 10. LOOKING AT THE FANTASYLAND
XTND FCST IT SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON AUGUST 1ST.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1125Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST AMDAR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION BASED AROUND 1000 FEET. STRATUS IS
STRUGGLING TO ESTABLISH THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY
PATCHY THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP COASTAL TAFS STRATUS-FREE THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS (ESPECIALLY AT KSMX). FOR TONIGHT...WILL EXPECT ANY STRATUS
THAT DEVELOPS TO REMAIN LOW (IFR/LIFR LEVELS) AND CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF
IFR CIGS TONIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO OUTER WATERS
ZONES (RESULTING IN THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WATCH THIS MORNING).

FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE INNER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL POSSIBLY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE INNER
WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 221126 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL EXPAND WEST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND A REDUCTION IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE DESERT AND THE HOTTEST VALLEY LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
LATEST SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX ARE STRUGGLING TO FIND A MARINE LAYER
BUT THEY DO SHOW AN INCREASING INVERSION TOPPING OUT AROUND 1400
FEET. MARINE STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO DEVELOP AND WILL LIKELY
BE ONLY PATCHY AT BEST COME SUNRISE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS A SOCAL WILL
BE WEDGED BETWEEN A LARGE SW UPPER HIGH AND A WEST COAST TROF. THE
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXPAND WESTWARD DURING THE PERIOD.

SINCE THE INVERSION IS A LITTLE STRONGER NOW AND WILL BECOME
STRONGER WITH THE WESTWARD APPROACH OF THE UPPER HIGH THE MARINE
LAYER WILL REFORM SLIGHTLY. STILL HARD TO SEE A GREAT DEAL OF
STRATUS AND THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ONLY LIMITED COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LA COAST AND THE CENTRAL COAST.

MAX TEMPS WILL INCREASE SOME EACH DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH TOP NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXCEED NORMALS
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM IN THE 1000 TO 1200 FOOT
ELEVATIONS AS THIS WHERE THE MAX TEMP OF THE INVERSION WILL BE.

INCREASING NW FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SUNDOWNERS TO THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A FAIRLY WEAK EVENT TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
GAVIOTA AREA. BUT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
NORTHERLY AND A LITTLE STRONGER WHICH SHOULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS TO MOST OF THE CANYONS. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN THE
SOME 900PM MAX TEMPS FOR SOUTH SBA COASTAL LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL 4 DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOK VERY SIMILAR AND VERY WARM. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER WESTWARD AND
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS WILL SHRINK AND WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
BEACHES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CURRENT FCST
DOES NOT SHOW ANY MONSOON CONNECTION BUT THE UPPER HIGH PLACEMENT IS
IN A POSITION FAVORABLE FOR SOME SORT OF MONSOON FLOW. DID NOT ADD
ANY CLOUDS OR TSTM CHCS BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BE A PRETTY GOOD HEAT SIEGE AS THE EXTENDED MDLS KEEP
THE UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD THROUGH DAY 10. LOOKING AT THE FANTASYLAND
XTND FCST IT SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON AUGUST 1ST.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1125Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST AMDAR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION BASED AROUND 1000 FEET. STRATUS IS
STRUGGLING TO ESTABLISH THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY
PATCHY THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP COASTAL TAFS STRATUS-FREE THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS (ESPECIALLY AT KSMX). FOR TONIGHT...WILL EXPECT ANY STRATUS
THAT DEVELOPS TO REMAIN LOW (IFR/LIFR LEVELS) AND CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF
IFR CIGS TONIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO OUTER WATERS
ZONES (RESULTING IN THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WATCH THIS MORNING).

FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE INNER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL POSSIBLY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE INNER
WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 221025
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL EXPAND WEST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND A REDUCTION IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE DESERT AND THE HOTTEST VALLEY LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
LATEST SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX ARE STRUGGLING TO FIND A MARINE LAYER
BUT THEY DO SHOW AN INCREASING INVERSION TOPPING OUT AROUND 1400
FEET. MARINE STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO DEVELOP AND WILL LIKELY
BE ONLY PATCHY AT BEST COME SUNRISE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS A SOCAL WILL
BE WEDGED BETWEEN A LARGE SW UPPER HIGH AND A WEST COAST TROF. THE
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXPAND WESTWARD DURING THE PERIOD.

SINCE THE INVERSION IS A LITTLE STRONGER NOW AND WILL BECOME
STRONGER WITH THE WESTWARD APPROACH OF THE UPPER HIGH THE MARINE
LAYER WILL REFORM SLIGHTLY. STILL HARD TO SEE A GREAT DEAL OF
STRATUS AND THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ONLY LIMITED COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LA COAST AND THE CENTRAL COAST.

MAX TEMPS WILL INCREASE SOME EACH DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH TOP NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXCEED NORMALS
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM IN THE 1000 TO 1200 FOOT
ELEVATIONS AS THIS WHERE THE MAX TEMP OF THE INVERSION WILL BE.

INCREASING NW FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SUNDOWNERS TO THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A FAIRLY WEAK EVENT TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
GAVIOTA AREA. BUT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
NORTHERLY AND A LITTLE STRONGER WHICH SHOULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS TO MOST OF THE CANYONS. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN THE
SOME 900PM MAX TEMPS FOR SOUTH SBA COASTAL LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL 4 DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOK VERY SIMILAR AND VERY WARM. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER WESTWARD AND
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS WILL SHRINK AND WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
BEACHES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CURRENT FCST
DOES NOT SHOW ANY MONSOON CONNECTION BUT THE UPPER HIGH PLACEMENT IS
IN A POSITION FAVORABLE FOR SOME SORT OF MONSOON FLOW. DID NOT ADD
ANY CLOUDS OR TSTM CHCS BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BE A PRETTY GOOD HEAT SIEGE AS THE EXTENDED MDLS KEEP
THE UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD THROUGH DAY 10. LOOKING AT THE FANTASYLAND
XTND FCST IT SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON AUGUST 1ST.

&&

.AVIATION...

22/0600Z.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN ALL COASTAL TAFS. MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN A VERY HAPHAZARD MANOR. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC THAT TAF SITES
WITH A CIG IN THE FCST WILL NOT HAVE ONE. EQUAL CHC THAT THE CIGS
WILL BE EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
EVERYWHERE AFTER 17Z.

KLAX...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF NO CIGS TUESDAY MORNING. IF CIGS
DO ARRIVE THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC THEY WILL BE OVC008.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND
16Z.

&&

.MARINE...22/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO OUTER WATERS
ZONES (RESULTING IN THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WATCH THIS MORNING).

FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE INNER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL POSSIBLY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE INNER
WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 221025
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL EXPAND WEST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND A REDUCTION IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE DESERT AND THE HOTTEST VALLEY LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
LATEST SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX ARE STRUGGLING TO FIND A MARINE LAYER
BUT THEY DO SHOW AN INCREASING INVERSION TOPPING OUT AROUND 1400
FEET. MARINE STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO DEVELOP AND WILL LIKELY
BE ONLY PATCHY AT BEST COME SUNRISE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS A SOCAL WILL
BE WEDGED BETWEEN A LARGE SW UPPER HIGH AND A WEST COAST TROF. THE
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXPAND WESTWARD DURING THE PERIOD.

SINCE THE INVERSION IS A LITTLE STRONGER NOW AND WILL BECOME
STRONGER WITH THE WESTWARD APPROACH OF THE UPPER HIGH THE MARINE
LAYER WILL REFORM SLIGHTLY. STILL HARD TO SEE A GREAT DEAL OF
STRATUS AND THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ONLY LIMITED COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LA COAST AND THE CENTRAL COAST.

MAX TEMPS WILL INCREASE SOME EACH DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH TOP NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXCEED NORMALS
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM IN THE 1000 TO 1200 FOOT
ELEVATIONS AS THIS WHERE THE MAX TEMP OF THE INVERSION WILL BE.

INCREASING NW FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SUNDOWNERS TO THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A FAIRLY WEAK EVENT TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
GAVIOTA AREA. BUT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
NORTHERLY AND A LITTLE STRONGER WHICH SHOULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS TO MOST OF THE CANYONS. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN THE
SOME 900PM MAX TEMPS FOR SOUTH SBA COASTAL LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL 4 DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOK VERY SIMILAR AND VERY WARM. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER WESTWARD AND
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS WILL SHRINK AND WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
BEACHES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CURRENT FCST
DOES NOT SHOW ANY MONSOON CONNECTION BUT THE UPPER HIGH PLACEMENT IS
IN A POSITION FAVORABLE FOR SOME SORT OF MONSOON FLOW. DID NOT ADD
ANY CLOUDS OR TSTM CHCS BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BE A PRETTY GOOD HEAT SIEGE AS THE EXTENDED MDLS KEEP
THE UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD THROUGH DAY 10. LOOKING AT THE FANTASYLAND
XTND FCST IT SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON AUGUST 1ST.

&&

.AVIATION...

22/0600Z.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN ALL COASTAL TAFS. MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN A VERY HAPHAZARD MANOR. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC THAT TAF SITES
WITH A CIG IN THE FCST WILL NOT HAVE ONE. EQUAL CHC THAT THE CIGS
WILL BE EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
EVERYWHERE AFTER 17Z.

KLAX...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF NO CIGS TUESDAY MORNING. IF CIGS
DO ARRIVE THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC THEY WILL BE OVC008.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND
16Z.

&&

.MARINE...22/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO OUTER WATERS
ZONES (RESULTING IN THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WATCH THIS MORNING).

FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE INNER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL POSSIBLY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE INNER
WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 220623
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL EXPAND WEST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND A REDUCTION IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE DESERT AND THE HOTTEST VALLEY LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 400 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF POINT
CONCEPTION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR DIFFICULT AND
LOW CONFIDENCE MARINE LAYER STRATUS FORECAST. WEAKENING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WEST. AS A RESULT...A WARMING
TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LESS MARINE LAYER STRATUS
COVERAGE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING. AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY
TO REMOVE POPS AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WARMING 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY. MARINE LYR MAY BECOME SO
SQUASHED THAT CLOUDS GET WIPED OUT AND WE`RE LEFT WITH CLEAR
SKIES...ESPECIALLY BY THU WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...MODELS STILL ADVERTISING AN EDDY CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF TO
COAST AND VALLEYS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT LIKELY LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. STILL QUITE HOT EVEN WITH THE EDDY
CIRCULATION WITH WARMER VALLEYS HIGHS CLOSE TO 100 AND INLAND
COASTAL AREAS IN THE UPPER 80S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR LIKELY SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING.
AT THIS TIME MODELS NOT ADVERTISING ANY SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WAVES
OR MOISTURE MOVING INTO OUR AREA SO THE FORECAST REMAINS TSTM-FREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

22/0600Z.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN ALL COASTAL TAFS. MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN A VERY HAPHAZARD MANOR. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC THAT TAF SITES
WITH A CIG IN THE FCST WILL NOT HAVE ONE. EQUAL CHC THAT THE CIGS
WILL BE EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
EVERYWHERE AFTER 17Z.

KLAX...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF NO CIGS TUESDAY MORNING. IF CIGS
DO ARRIVE THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC THEY WILL BE OVC008.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND
16Z.

&&

.MARINE...21/900 PM.

FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OCCURRING BETWEEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE PLACED IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 220623
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL EXPAND WEST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND A REDUCTION IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE DESERT AND THE HOTTEST VALLEY LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 400 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF POINT
CONCEPTION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR DIFFICULT AND
LOW CONFIDENCE MARINE LAYER STRATUS FORECAST. WEAKENING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WEST. AS A RESULT...A WARMING
TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LESS MARINE LAYER STRATUS
COVERAGE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING. AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY
TO REMOVE POPS AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WARMING 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY. MARINE LYR MAY BECOME SO
SQUASHED THAT CLOUDS GET WIPED OUT AND WE`RE LEFT WITH CLEAR
SKIES...ESPECIALLY BY THU WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...MODELS STILL ADVERTISING AN EDDY CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF TO
COAST AND VALLEYS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT LIKELY LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. STILL QUITE HOT EVEN WITH THE EDDY
CIRCULATION WITH WARMER VALLEYS HIGHS CLOSE TO 100 AND INLAND
COASTAL AREAS IN THE UPPER 80S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR LIKELY SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING.
AT THIS TIME MODELS NOT ADVERTISING ANY SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WAVES
OR MOISTURE MOVING INTO OUR AREA SO THE FORECAST REMAINS TSTM-FREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

22/0600Z.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN ALL COASTAL TAFS. MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN A VERY HAPHAZARD MANOR. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC THAT TAF SITES
WITH A CIG IN THE FCST WILL NOT HAVE ONE. EQUAL CHC THAT THE CIGS
WILL BE EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
EVERYWHERE AFTER 17Z.

KLAX...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF NO CIGS TUESDAY MORNING. IF CIGS
DO ARRIVE THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC THEY WILL BE OVC008.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND
16Z.

&&

.MARINE...21/900 PM.

FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OCCURRING BETWEEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE PLACED IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

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