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000
FXUS66 KLOX 270416
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
916 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG
COASTS AND VALLEYS ON FRIDAY...AND MORE COOLING ON SATURDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN
WITH THE COOLING TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE CENTER OVER SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING...BUT
OFFSHORE FLOW STILL REMAINS IN PLACE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD TREND ONSHORE THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH MORE PRONOUNCED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BETTER
COOLING WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY. A FEW TWEAKS WILL BE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE COOL THE CENTRAL COAST
MORE.

FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATE STRATUS CLOUD PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE
PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BEACHES LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE ADDED LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE STRONGER ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN
THICKNESS VALUES WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL
ZONES. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN
TODAY`S...NOT EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST
CHANCES ACCORDING TO WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG
BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF 88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND
PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

LONG TERM...NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NO SIGNIFICANT RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST
BY THE MODELS. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A
POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT
PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER
STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2338Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 PM.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. DENSE FOG
MAY IMPACT INLETS AND HARBORS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND DEVELOPING WAS PLACED
WITH THE NORTHERN OUTER WATER ZONE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH
OF POINT SAL AND FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SAL
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS COULD LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/JACKSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 270416
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
916 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG
COASTS AND VALLEYS ON FRIDAY...AND MORE COOLING ON SATURDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN
WITH THE COOLING TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE CENTER OVER SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING...BUT
OFFSHORE FLOW STILL REMAINS IN PLACE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD TREND ONSHORE THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH MORE PRONOUNCED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BETTER
COOLING WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY. A FEW TWEAKS WILL BE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE COOL THE CENTRAL COAST
MORE.

FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATE STRATUS CLOUD PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE
PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BEACHES LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE ADDED LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE STRONGER ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN
THICKNESS VALUES WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL
ZONES. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN
TODAY`S...NOT EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST
CHANCES ACCORDING TO WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG
BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF 88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND
PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

LONG TERM...NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NO SIGNIFICANT RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST
BY THE MODELS. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A
POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT
PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER
STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2338Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 PM.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. DENSE FOG
MAY IMPACT INLETS AND HARBORS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND DEVELOPING WAS PLACED
WITH THE NORTHERN OUTER WATER ZONE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH
OF POINT SAL AND FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SAL
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS COULD LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/JACKSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 270416
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
916 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG
COASTS AND VALLEYS ON FRIDAY...AND MORE COOLING ON SATURDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN
WITH THE COOLING TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE CENTER OVER SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING...BUT
OFFSHORE FLOW STILL REMAINS IN PLACE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD TREND ONSHORE THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH MORE PRONOUNCED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BETTER
COOLING WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY. A FEW TWEAKS WILL BE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE COOL THE CENTRAL COAST
MORE.

FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATE STRATUS CLOUD PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE
PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BEACHES LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE ADDED LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE STRONGER ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN
THICKNESS VALUES WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL
ZONES. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN
TODAY`S...NOT EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST
CHANCES ACCORDING TO WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG
BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF 88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND
PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

LONG TERM...NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NO SIGNIFICANT RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST
BY THE MODELS. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A
POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT
PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER
STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2338Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 PM.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. DENSE FOG
MAY IMPACT INLETS AND HARBORS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND DEVELOPING WAS PLACED
WITH THE NORTHERN OUTER WATER ZONE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH
OF POINT SAL AND FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SAL
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS COULD LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/JACKSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 270416
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
916 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG
COASTS AND VALLEYS ON FRIDAY...AND MORE COOLING ON SATURDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN
WITH THE COOLING TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE CENTER OVER SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING...BUT
OFFSHORE FLOW STILL REMAINS IN PLACE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD TREND ONSHORE THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH MORE PRONOUNCED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BETTER
COOLING WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY. A FEW TWEAKS WILL BE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE COOL THE CENTRAL COAST
MORE.

FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATE STRATUS CLOUD PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE
PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BEACHES LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE ADDED LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE STRONGER ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN
THICKNESS VALUES WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL
ZONES. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN
TODAY`S...NOT EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST
CHANCES ACCORDING TO WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG
BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF 88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND
PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

LONG TERM...NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NO SIGNIFICANT RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST
BY THE MODELS. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A
POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT
PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER
STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2338Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 PM.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. DENSE FOG
MAY IMPACT INLETS AND HARBORS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND DEVELOPING WAS PLACED
WITH THE NORTHERN OUTER WATER ZONE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH
OF POINT SAL AND FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SAL
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS COULD LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/JACKSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 262339 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
438 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS IS
JUST ABOUT RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHAVING FAIRLY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD SHARE OF 90 PLUS READINGS SO FAR. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS ALREADY COOLED TEMPS DOWN IN SOME COASTAL SPOTS. WINDS
HAVE NOT BEEN AN ISSUE AS OUR OFFSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
STRONG AND WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...JUST SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30S IN THE USUAL FAVORED SPOTS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS. SPEEDS HAVE
PICKED UP SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THAT SHOULDN`T
LAST MUCH LONGER.

LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL ZONES.
MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. EVEN
THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN TODAY`S...NOT
EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST CHANCES ACCORDING TO
WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF
88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

.LONG TERM (TUE-THU)...
NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS
WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2338Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 262339 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
438 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS IS
JUST ABOUT RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHAVING FAIRLY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD SHARE OF 90 PLUS READINGS SO FAR. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS ALREADY COOLED TEMPS DOWN IN SOME COASTAL SPOTS. WINDS
HAVE NOT BEEN AN ISSUE AS OUR OFFSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
STRONG AND WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...JUST SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30S IN THE USUAL FAVORED SPOTS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS. SPEEDS HAVE
PICKED UP SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THAT SHOULDN`T
LAST MUCH LONGER.

LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL ZONES.
MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. EVEN
THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN TODAY`S...NOT
EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST CHANCES ACCORDING TO
WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF
88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

.LONG TERM (TUE-THU)...
NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS
WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2338Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 262339 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
438 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS IS
JUST ABOUT RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHAVING FAIRLY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD SHARE OF 90 PLUS READINGS SO FAR. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS ALREADY COOLED TEMPS DOWN IN SOME COASTAL SPOTS. WINDS
HAVE NOT BEEN AN ISSUE AS OUR OFFSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
STRONG AND WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...JUST SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30S IN THE USUAL FAVORED SPOTS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS. SPEEDS HAVE
PICKED UP SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THAT SHOULDN`T
LAST MUCH LONGER.

LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL ZONES.
MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. EVEN
THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN TODAY`S...NOT
EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST CHANCES ACCORDING TO
WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF
88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

.LONG TERM (TUE-THU)...
NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS
WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2338Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 262339 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
438 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS IS
JUST ABOUT RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHAVING FAIRLY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD SHARE OF 90 PLUS READINGS SO FAR. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS ALREADY COOLED TEMPS DOWN IN SOME COASTAL SPOTS. WINDS
HAVE NOT BEEN AN ISSUE AS OUR OFFSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
STRONG AND WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...JUST SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30S IN THE USUAL FAVORED SPOTS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS. SPEEDS HAVE
PICKED UP SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THAT SHOULDN`T
LAST MUCH LONGER.

LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL ZONES.
MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. EVEN
THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN TODAY`S...NOT
EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST CHANCES ACCORDING TO
WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF
88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

.LONG TERM (TUE-THU)...
NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS
WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2338Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 262105
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
206 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS IS
JUST ABOUT RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHAVING FAIRLY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD SHARE OF 90 PLUS READINGS SO FAR. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS ALREADY COOLED TEMPS DOWN IN SOME COASTAL SPOTS. WINDS
HAVE NOT BEEN AN ISSUE AS OUR OFFSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
STRONG AND WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...JUST SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30S IN THE USUAL FAVORED SPOTS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS. SPEEDS HAVE
PICKED UP SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THAT SHOULDN`T
LAST MUCH LONGER.

LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL ZONES.
MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. EVEN
THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN TODAY`S...NOT
EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST CHANCES ACCORDING TO
WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF
88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

.LONG TERM (TUE-THU)...
NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS
WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

AT 1711Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1100 FEET WITH A VERY
WEAK INVERSION UP TO 1400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



















000
FXUS66 KLOX 262105
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
206 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS IS
JUST ABOUT RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHAVING FAIRLY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD SHARE OF 90 PLUS READINGS SO FAR. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS ALREADY COOLED TEMPS DOWN IN SOME COASTAL SPOTS. WINDS
HAVE NOT BEEN AN ISSUE AS OUR OFFSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
STRONG AND WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...JUST SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30S IN THE USUAL FAVORED SPOTS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS. SPEEDS HAVE
PICKED UP SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THAT SHOULDN`T
LAST MUCH LONGER.

LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL ZONES.
MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. EVEN
THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN TODAY`S...NOT
EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST CHANCES ACCORDING TO
WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF
88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

.LONG TERM (TUE-THU)...
NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS
WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

AT 1711Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1100 FEET WITH A VERY
WEAK INVERSION UP TO 1400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


















000
FXUS66 KLOX 261804
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER RIDGE
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS VERY MUCH ON TRACK THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 70S COASTAL VALLEYS UNDER
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FAIRLY TAME GIVEN THESE
GRADIENTS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EVEN WILEY RIDGE WHICH
BLOWS PRETTY EASILY IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ONLY GUSTING TO JUST
BELOW 30 MPH THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE
LEVELS THINGS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE RIDGE
AXIS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
EVEN WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THAT TURN ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE...THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TOMORROW ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY HOWEVER
WILL ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AV
COOLING BUT WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING THOSE TEMPS UP CLOSER
TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS
TOMORROW DESPITE THE COOLING NEAR THE COAST SIMPLY BECAUSE TODAY HAS
SUCH HIGH RECORDS. FOR EXAMPLE FOR TOMORROW THE RECORD HIGH FOR
DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES IS 91 COMPARED TO TODAY`S RECORD OF 98. NOT
EXPECTING TO SHATTER A TON OF RECORDS TOMORROW BY ANY MEANS BUT
STILL BETTER CHANCES THAN TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER STILL AS THE RIDGE HAS MOVED EVEN
FURTHER TO OUR EAST AND IN ADVANCE OF SUNDAY`S DRY TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
DESPITE THE COOLING EXPECTED EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

AT 1711Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1100 FEET WITH A VERY
WEAK INVERSION UP TO 1400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 261804
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER RIDGE
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS VERY MUCH ON TRACK THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 70S COASTAL VALLEYS UNDER
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FAIRLY TAME GIVEN THESE
GRADIENTS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EVEN WILEY RIDGE WHICH
BLOWS PRETTY EASILY IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ONLY GUSTING TO JUST
BELOW 30 MPH THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE
LEVELS THINGS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE RIDGE
AXIS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
EVEN WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THAT TURN ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE...THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TOMORROW ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY HOWEVER
WILL ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AV
COOLING BUT WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING THOSE TEMPS UP CLOSER
TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS
TOMORROW DESPITE THE COOLING NEAR THE COAST SIMPLY BECAUSE TODAY HAS
SUCH HIGH RECORDS. FOR EXAMPLE FOR TOMORROW THE RECORD HIGH FOR
DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES IS 91 COMPARED TO TODAY`S RECORD OF 98. NOT
EXPECTING TO SHATTER A TON OF RECORDS TOMORROW BY ANY MEANS BUT
STILL BETTER CHANCES THAN TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER STILL AS THE RIDGE HAS MOVED EVEN
FURTHER TO OUR EAST AND IN ADVANCE OF SUNDAY`S DRY TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
DESPITE THE COOLING EXPECTED EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

AT 1711Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1100 FEET WITH A VERY
WEAK INVERSION UP TO 1400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 261804
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER RIDGE
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS VERY MUCH ON TRACK THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 70S COASTAL VALLEYS UNDER
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FAIRLY TAME GIVEN THESE
GRADIENTS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EVEN WILEY RIDGE WHICH
BLOWS PRETTY EASILY IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ONLY GUSTING TO JUST
BELOW 30 MPH THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE
LEVELS THINGS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE RIDGE
AXIS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
EVEN WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THAT TURN ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE...THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TOMORROW ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY HOWEVER
WILL ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AV
COOLING BUT WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING THOSE TEMPS UP CLOSER
TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS
TOMORROW DESPITE THE COOLING NEAR THE COAST SIMPLY BECAUSE TODAY HAS
SUCH HIGH RECORDS. FOR EXAMPLE FOR TOMORROW THE RECORD HIGH FOR
DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES IS 91 COMPARED TO TODAY`S RECORD OF 98. NOT
EXPECTING TO SHATTER A TON OF RECORDS TOMORROW BY ANY MEANS BUT
STILL BETTER CHANCES THAN TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER STILL AS THE RIDGE HAS MOVED EVEN
FURTHER TO OUR EAST AND IN ADVANCE OF SUNDAY`S DRY TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
DESPITE THE COOLING EXPECTED EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

AT 1711Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1100 FEET WITH A VERY
WEAK INVERSION UP TO 1400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 261804
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER RIDGE
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS VERY MUCH ON TRACK THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 70S COASTAL VALLEYS UNDER
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FAIRLY TAME GIVEN THESE
GRADIENTS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EVEN WILEY RIDGE WHICH
BLOWS PRETTY EASILY IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ONLY GUSTING TO JUST
BELOW 30 MPH THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE
LEVELS THINGS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE RIDGE
AXIS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
EVEN WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THAT TURN ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE...THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TOMORROW ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY HOWEVER
WILL ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AV
COOLING BUT WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING THOSE TEMPS UP CLOSER
TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS
TOMORROW DESPITE THE COOLING NEAR THE COAST SIMPLY BECAUSE TODAY HAS
SUCH HIGH RECORDS. FOR EXAMPLE FOR TOMORROW THE RECORD HIGH FOR
DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES IS 91 COMPARED TO TODAY`S RECORD OF 98. NOT
EXPECTING TO SHATTER A TON OF RECORDS TOMORROW BY ANY MEANS BUT
STILL BETTER CHANCES THAN TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER STILL AS THE RIDGE HAS MOVED EVEN
FURTHER TO OUR EAST AND IN ADVANCE OF SUNDAY`S DRY TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
DESPITE THE COOLING EXPECTED EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

AT 1711Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1100 FEET WITH A VERY
WEAK INVERSION UP TO 1400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 261640
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
938 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER RIDGE
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS VERY MUCH ON TRACK THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 70S COASTAL VALLEYS UNDER
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FAIRLY TAME GIVEN THESE
GRADIENTS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EVEN WILEY RIDGE WHICH
BLOWS PRETTY EASILY IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ONLY GUSTING TO JUST
BELOW 30 MPH THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE
LEVELS THINGS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE RIDGE
AXIS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
EVEN WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THAT TURN ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE...THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TOMORROW ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY HOWEVER
WILL ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AV
COOLING BUT WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING THOSE TEMPS UP CLOSER
TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS
TOMORROW DESPITE THE COOLING NEAR THE COAST SIMPLY BECAUSE TODAY HAS
SUCH HIGH RECORDS. FOR EXAMPLE FOR TOMORROW THE RECORD HIGH FOR
DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES IS 91 COMPARED TO TODAY`S RECORD OF 98. NOT
EXPECTING TO SHATTER A TON OF RECORDS TOMORROW BY ANY MEANS BUT
STILL BETTER CHANCES THAN TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER STILL AS THE RIDGE HAS MOVED EVEN
FURTHER TO OUR EAST AND IN ADVANCE OF SUNDAY`S DRY TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
DESPITE THE COOLING EXPECTED EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1130Z.

AT 1130Z THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS VTU AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
THERE IS JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 261640
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
938 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER RIDGE
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS VERY MUCH ON TRACK THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 70S COASTAL VALLEYS UNDER
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FAIRLY TAME GIVEN THESE
GRADIENTS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EVEN WILEY RIDGE WHICH
BLOWS PRETTY EASILY IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ONLY GUSTING TO JUST
BELOW 30 MPH THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE
LEVELS THINGS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE RIDGE
AXIS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
EVEN WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THAT TURN ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE...THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TOMORROW ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY HOWEVER
WILL ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AV
COOLING BUT WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING THOSE TEMPS UP CLOSER
TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS
TOMORROW DESPITE THE COOLING NEAR THE COAST SIMPLY BECAUSE TODAY HAS
SUCH HIGH RECORDS. FOR EXAMPLE FOR TOMORROW THE RECORD HIGH FOR
DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES IS 91 COMPARED TO TODAY`S RECORD OF 98. NOT
EXPECTING TO SHATTER A TON OF RECORDS TOMORROW BY ANY MEANS BUT
STILL BETTER CHANCES THAN TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER STILL AS THE RIDGE HAS MOVED EVEN
FURTHER TO OUR EAST AND IN ADVANCE OF SUNDAY`S DRY TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
DESPITE THE COOLING EXPECTED EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1130Z.

AT 1130Z THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS VTU AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
THERE IS JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 261640
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
938 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER RIDGE
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS VERY MUCH ON TRACK THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 70S COASTAL VALLEYS UNDER
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FAIRLY TAME GIVEN THESE
GRADIENTS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EVEN WILEY RIDGE WHICH
BLOWS PRETTY EASILY IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ONLY GUSTING TO JUST
BELOW 30 MPH THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE
LEVELS THINGS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE RIDGE
AXIS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
EVEN WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THAT TURN ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE...THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TOMORROW ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY HOWEVER
WILL ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AV
COOLING BUT WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING THOSE TEMPS UP CLOSER
TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS
TOMORROW DESPITE THE COOLING NEAR THE COAST SIMPLY BECAUSE TODAY HAS
SUCH HIGH RECORDS. FOR EXAMPLE FOR TOMORROW THE RECORD HIGH FOR
DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES IS 91 COMPARED TO TODAY`S RECORD OF 98. NOT
EXPECTING TO SHATTER A TON OF RECORDS TOMORROW BY ANY MEANS BUT
STILL BETTER CHANCES THAN TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER STILL AS THE RIDGE HAS MOVED EVEN
FURTHER TO OUR EAST AND IN ADVANCE OF SUNDAY`S DRY TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
DESPITE THE COOLING EXPECTED EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1130Z.

AT 1130Z THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS VTU AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
THERE IS JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 261134
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE SEA BREEZE
RETURNS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS A 583 RIDGE DIRECTLY ATOP OF SRN CA
COMBINES WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TO BRING 80S AND LOWER 90S TO MOST OF
THE COASTS AND VLYS. PROBABLY NOT A RECORD BREAKING DAY AS ALL THE
MAX TEMPS SET BACK IN 1988 ARE IN THE UPPER 90S. IT WILL BE BREEZY
THIS MORNING BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS WITH 3 TO 4 MB OF OFFSHORE
FLOW BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND THE EAST. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT TO
SPEAK OF AND THIS WILL KEEP ALMOST ALL OF THE GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NO CHANGE IN THE HGTS FRIDAY BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES SO THERE
WILL BE LESS CANYON WINDS IN THE MORNING AND ALSO THERE WILL BE A
BETTER SEA BREEZE AND LESS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SO IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH DIMINISHING COOLING FURTHER
INLAND. IT WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COASTAL
ZONES WHERE IT COULD BE WARM IF THE SEABREEZE IS LATE OR COOL IF THE
SEA BREEZE ARRIVES EARLY. RECORDS ARE MUCH LOWER SO DESPITE A LITTLE
COOLING A FEW RECORDS (LONG BEACH IS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE)

OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE FIRST FLATTENS OUT SATURDAY AND THEN A
WEAK TROF RIPPLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS
WEAKLY ONSHORE. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS SATURDAY BUT SKIES WILL
TURN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE TROF ON SUNDAY. THE TROF COULD GIN UP A
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SUNDAY BUT WITH THE VERY WARM OCEAN TEMPS
IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY STRATUS. COOLER
SATURDAY AND THEN COOLER STILL SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1130Z.

AT 1130Z THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS VTU AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...

26/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
THERE IS JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 261134
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE SEA BREEZE
RETURNS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS A 583 RIDGE DIRECTLY ATOP OF SRN CA
COMBINES WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TO BRING 80S AND LOWER 90S TO MOST OF
THE COASTS AND VLYS. PROBABLY NOT A RECORD BREAKING DAY AS ALL THE
MAX TEMPS SET BACK IN 1988 ARE IN THE UPPER 90S. IT WILL BE BREEZY
THIS MORNING BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS WITH 3 TO 4 MB OF OFFSHORE
FLOW BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND THE EAST. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT TO
SPEAK OF AND THIS WILL KEEP ALMOST ALL OF THE GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NO CHANGE IN THE HGTS FRIDAY BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES SO THERE
WILL BE LESS CANYON WINDS IN THE MORNING AND ALSO THERE WILL BE A
BETTER SEA BREEZE AND LESS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SO IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH DIMINISHING COOLING FURTHER
INLAND. IT WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COASTAL
ZONES WHERE IT COULD BE WARM IF THE SEABREEZE IS LATE OR COOL IF THE
SEA BREEZE ARRIVES EARLY. RECORDS ARE MUCH LOWER SO DESPITE A LITTLE
COOLING A FEW RECORDS (LONG BEACH IS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE)

OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE FIRST FLATTENS OUT SATURDAY AND THEN A
WEAK TROF RIPPLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS
WEAKLY ONSHORE. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS SATURDAY BUT SKIES WILL
TURN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE TROF ON SUNDAY. THE TROF COULD GIN UP A
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SUNDAY BUT WITH THE VERY WARM OCEAN TEMPS
IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY STRATUS. COOLER
SATURDAY AND THEN COOLER STILL SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1130Z.

AT 1130Z THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS VTU AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...

26/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
THERE IS JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 261134
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE SEA BREEZE
RETURNS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS A 583 RIDGE DIRECTLY ATOP OF SRN CA
COMBINES WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TO BRING 80S AND LOWER 90S TO MOST OF
THE COASTS AND VLYS. PROBABLY NOT A RECORD BREAKING DAY AS ALL THE
MAX TEMPS SET BACK IN 1988 ARE IN THE UPPER 90S. IT WILL BE BREEZY
THIS MORNING BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS WITH 3 TO 4 MB OF OFFSHORE
FLOW BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND THE EAST. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT TO
SPEAK OF AND THIS WILL KEEP ALMOST ALL OF THE GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NO CHANGE IN THE HGTS FRIDAY BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES SO THERE
WILL BE LESS CANYON WINDS IN THE MORNING AND ALSO THERE WILL BE A
BETTER SEA BREEZE AND LESS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SO IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH DIMINISHING COOLING FURTHER
INLAND. IT WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COASTAL
ZONES WHERE IT COULD BE WARM IF THE SEABREEZE IS LATE OR COOL IF THE
SEA BREEZE ARRIVES EARLY. RECORDS ARE MUCH LOWER SO DESPITE A LITTLE
COOLING A FEW RECORDS (LONG BEACH IS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE)

OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE FIRST FLATTENS OUT SATURDAY AND THEN A
WEAK TROF RIPPLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS
WEAKLY ONSHORE. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS SATURDAY BUT SKIES WILL
TURN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE TROF ON SUNDAY. THE TROF COULD GIN UP A
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SUNDAY BUT WITH THE VERY WARM OCEAN TEMPS
IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY STRATUS. COOLER
SATURDAY AND THEN COOLER STILL SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1130Z.

AT 1130Z THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS VTU AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...

26/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
THERE IS JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 261134
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE SEA BREEZE
RETURNS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS A 583 RIDGE DIRECTLY ATOP OF SRN CA
COMBINES WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TO BRING 80S AND LOWER 90S TO MOST OF
THE COASTS AND VLYS. PROBABLY NOT A RECORD BREAKING DAY AS ALL THE
MAX TEMPS SET BACK IN 1988 ARE IN THE UPPER 90S. IT WILL BE BREEZY
THIS MORNING BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS WITH 3 TO 4 MB OF OFFSHORE
FLOW BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND THE EAST. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT TO
SPEAK OF AND THIS WILL KEEP ALMOST ALL OF THE GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NO CHANGE IN THE HGTS FRIDAY BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES SO THERE
WILL BE LESS CANYON WINDS IN THE MORNING AND ALSO THERE WILL BE A
BETTER SEA BREEZE AND LESS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SO IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH DIMINISHING COOLING FURTHER
INLAND. IT WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COASTAL
ZONES WHERE IT COULD BE WARM IF THE SEABREEZE IS LATE OR COOL IF THE
SEA BREEZE ARRIVES EARLY. RECORDS ARE MUCH LOWER SO DESPITE A LITTLE
COOLING A FEW RECORDS (LONG BEACH IS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE)

OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE FIRST FLATTENS OUT SATURDAY AND THEN A
WEAK TROF RIPPLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS
WEAKLY ONSHORE. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS SATURDAY BUT SKIES WILL
TURN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE TROF ON SUNDAY. THE TROF COULD GIN UP A
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SUNDAY BUT WITH THE VERY WARM OCEAN TEMPS
IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY STRATUS. COOLER
SATURDAY AND THEN COOLER STILL SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1130Z.

AT 1130Z THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS VTU AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...

26/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
THERE IS JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 261122
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE SEA BREEZE
RETURNS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS A 583 RIDGE DIRECTLY ATOP OF SRN CA
COMBINES WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TO BRING 80S AND LOWER 90S TO MOST OF
THE COASTS AND VLYS. PROBABLY NOT A RECORD BREAKING DAY AS ALL THE
MAX TEMPS SET BACK IN 1988 ARE IN THE UPPER 90S. IT WILL BE BREEZY
THIS MORNING BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS WITH 3 TO 4 MB OF OFFSHORE
FLOW BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND THE EAST. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT TO
SPEAK OF AND THIS WILL KEEP ALMOST ALL OF THE GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NO CHANGE IN THE HGTS FRIDAY BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES SO THERE
WILL BE LESS CANYON WINDS IN THE MORNING AND ALSO THERE WILL BE A
BETTER SEA BREEZE AND LESS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SO IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH DIMINISHING COOLING FURTHER
INLAND. IT WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COASTAL
ZONES WHERE IT COULD BE WARM IF THE SEABREEZE IS LATE OR COOL IF THE
SEA BREEZE ARRIVES EARLY. RECORDS ARE MUCH LOWER SO DESPITE A LITTLE
COOLING A FEW RECORDS (LONG BEACH IS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE)

OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE FIRST FLATTENS OUT SATURDAY AND THEN A
WEAK TROF RIPPLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS
WEAKLY ONSHORE. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS SATURDAY BUT SKIES WILL
TURN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE TROF ON SUNDAY. THE TROF COULD GIN UP A
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SUNDAY BUT WITH THE VERY WARM OCEAN TEMPS
IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY STRATUS. COOLER
SATURDAY AND THEN COOLER STILL SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/0000Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...

25/900 PM

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 3 AM THURSDAY. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT INLAND TO THE GREAT
BASIN...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. ONLY
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN POINT MUGU AND
SANTA MONICA. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURF AND
CURRENTS INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD
SOUTH EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY
EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY
BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 261122
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE SEA BREEZE
RETURNS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS A 583 RIDGE DIRECTLY ATOP OF SRN CA
COMBINES WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TO BRING 80S AND LOWER 90S TO MOST OF
THE COASTS AND VLYS. PROBABLY NOT A RECORD BREAKING DAY AS ALL THE
MAX TEMPS SET BACK IN 1988 ARE IN THE UPPER 90S. IT WILL BE BREEZY
THIS MORNING BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS WITH 3 TO 4 MB OF OFFSHORE
FLOW BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND THE EAST. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT TO
SPEAK OF AND THIS WILL KEEP ALMOST ALL OF THE GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NO CHANGE IN THE HGTS FRIDAY BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES SO THERE
WILL BE LESS CANYON WINDS IN THE MORNING AND ALSO THERE WILL BE A
BETTER SEA BREEZE AND LESS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SO IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH DIMINISHING COOLING FURTHER
INLAND. IT WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COASTAL
ZONES WHERE IT COULD BE WARM IF THE SEABREEZE IS LATE OR COOL IF THE
SEA BREEZE ARRIVES EARLY. RECORDS ARE MUCH LOWER SO DESPITE A LITTLE
COOLING A FEW RECORDS (LONG BEACH IS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE)

OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE FIRST FLATTENS OUT SATURDAY AND THEN A
WEAK TROF RIPPLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS
WEAKLY ONSHORE. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS SATURDAY BUT SKIES WILL
TURN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE TROF ON SUNDAY. THE TROF COULD GIN UP A
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SUNDAY BUT WITH THE VERY WARM OCEAN TEMPS
IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY STRATUS. COOLER
SATURDAY AND THEN COOLER STILL SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/0000Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...

25/900 PM

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 3 AM THURSDAY. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT INLAND TO THE GREAT
BASIN...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. ONLY
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN POINT MUGU AND
SANTA MONICA. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURF AND
CURRENTS INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD
SOUTH EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY
EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY
BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 260402
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
902 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE SEA BREEZE
RETURNS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N AND 122W...OR ABOUT 200 MILES WEST
OF LOS ANGELES. THE RIDGE AXIS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. A HOT
AND DRY AIR MASS IS ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK AS THE AIR MASS
STAGNATES. OFFSHORE FLOW...THOUGH WEAKER...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. SOME BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NO WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AND BRING AN
EARLIER SEA BREEZE AND 5-10 DEGREES WORTH OF COOLING FOR THE COAST
AND 3-6 DEGREES COOLING FOR THE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH MOST AREAS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL POP BACK UP MONDAY FOR
A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THEN FLATTENS
OUT AGAIN WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SO A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING TUE/WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY START
SEEING SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING AT SOME POINT BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT DAY THAT WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0000Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 PM.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 3 AM THURSDAY. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT INLAND TO THE GREAT
BASIN...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. ONLY
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN POINT MUGU AND
SANTA MONICA. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURF AND
CURRENTS INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD
SOUTH EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY
EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY
BETWEEN SETS.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 260402
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
902 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE SEA BREEZE
RETURNS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N AND 122W...OR ABOUT 200 MILES WEST
OF LOS ANGELES. THE RIDGE AXIS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. A HOT
AND DRY AIR MASS IS ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK AS THE AIR MASS
STAGNATES. OFFSHORE FLOW...THOUGH WEAKER...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. SOME BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NO WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AND BRING AN
EARLIER SEA BREEZE AND 5-10 DEGREES WORTH OF COOLING FOR THE COAST
AND 3-6 DEGREES COOLING FOR THE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH MOST AREAS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL POP BACK UP MONDAY FOR
A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THEN FLATTENS
OUT AGAIN WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SO A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING TUE/WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY START
SEEING SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING AT SOME POINT BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT DAY THAT WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0000Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 PM.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 3 AM THURSDAY. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT INLAND TO THE GREAT
BASIN...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. ONLY
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN POINT MUGU AND
SANTA MONICA. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURF AND
CURRENTS INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD
SOUTH EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY
EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY
BETWEEN SETS.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 260120
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
620 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...THEN WEAKEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH  WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND RECORD
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOONS OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A COOLING TREND...BUT A HIGH
BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...THE WARMUP HAS BEGUN AND NORTH WINDS HAVE
ABATED. WE ARE NOW TRANSITIONING TO A TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT AND WE WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH WINDS MOSTLY BELOW 35
MPH. BIGGEST THING WILL BE THE VERY HOT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
ACROSS MOST VALLEY AND EVEN SOME INLAND COASTAL ZONES IN LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES AND 80S ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FRIDAY THOUGH
EVEN LESS OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AND BRING AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE
AND 5-10 DEGREES WORTH OF COOLING FOR THE COAST AND 3-6 DEGREES
COOLING FOR THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH MOST
AREAS BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL POP BACK UP
MONDAY FOR A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THEN
FLATTENS OUT AGAIN WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SO A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING TUE/WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY
START SEEING SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING AT SOME POINT
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT DAY THAT WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0000Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL REAMIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/620 PM.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE OUTER WATERS WINDS COULD GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL/KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 260120
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
620 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...THEN WEAKEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH  WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND RECORD
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOONS OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A COOLING TREND...BUT A HIGH
BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...THE WARMUP HAS BEGUN AND NORTH WINDS HAVE
ABATED. WE ARE NOW TRANSITIONING TO A TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT AND WE WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH WINDS MOSTLY BELOW 35
MPH. BIGGEST THING WILL BE THE VERY HOT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
ACROSS MOST VALLEY AND EVEN SOME INLAND COASTAL ZONES IN LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES AND 80S ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FRIDAY THOUGH
EVEN LESS OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AND BRING AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE
AND 5-10 DEGREES WORTH OF COOLING FOR THE COAST AND 3-6 DEGREES
COOLING FOR THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH MOST
AREAS BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL POP BACK UP
MONDAY FOR A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THEN
FLATTENS OUT AGAIN WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SO A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING TUE/WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY
START SEEING SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING AT SOME POINT
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT DAY THAT WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0000Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL REAMIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/620 PM.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE OUTER WATERS WINDS COULD GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL/KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 252126
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...THEN WEAKEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH  WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND RECORD
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOONS OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A COOLING TREND...BUT A HIGH
BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...THE WARMUP HAS BEGUN AND NORTH WINDS HAVE
ABATED. WE ARE NOW TRANSITIONING TO A TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT AND WE WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH WINDS MOSTLY BELOW 35
MPH. BIGGEST THING WILL BE THE VERY HOT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
ACROSS MOST VALLEY AND EVEN SOME INLAND COASTAL ZONES IN LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES AND 80S ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FRIDAY THOUGH
EVEN LESS OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AND BRING AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE
AND 5-10 DEGREES WORTH OF COOLING FOR THE COAST AND 3-6 DEGREES
COOLING FOR THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH MOST
AREAS BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL POP BACK UP
MONDAY FOR A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THEN
FLATTENS OUT AGAIN WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SO A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING TUE/WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY
START SEEING SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING AT SOME POINT
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT DAY THAT WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z

AT 1700 Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT
KPRB 13Z-18Z.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH
MTN WAVE ACTIVITY AND LLWS LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH
LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/230 PM

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS WINDS COULD GUST LOCALLY TO 25
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 252126
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...THEN WEAKEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH  WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND RECORD
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOONS OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A COOLING TREND...BUT A HIGH
BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...THE WARMUP HAS BEGUN AND NORTH WINDS HAVE
ABATED. WE ARE NOW TRANSITIONING TO A TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT AND WE WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH WINDS MOSTLY BELOW 35
MPH. BIGGEST THING WILL BE THE VERY HOT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
ACROSS MOST VALLEY AND EVEN SOME INLAND COASTAL ZONES IN LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES AND 80S ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FRIDAY THOUGH
EVEN LESS OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AND BRING AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE
AND 5-10 DEGREES WORTH OF COOLING FOR THE COAST AND 3-6 DEGREES
COOLING FOR THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH MOST
AREAS BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL POP BACK UP
MONDAY FOR A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THEN
FLATTENS OUT AGAIN WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SO A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING TUE/WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY
START SEEING SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING AT SOME POINT
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT DAY THAT WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z

AT 1700 Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT
KPRB 13Z-18Z.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH
MTN WAVE ACTIVITY AND LLWS LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH
LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/230 PM

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS WINDS COULD GUST LOCALLY TO 25
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 252126
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...THEN WEAKEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH  WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND RECORD
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOONS OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A COOLING TREND...BUT A HIGH
BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...THE WARMUP HAS BEGUN AND NORTH WINDS HAVE
ABATED. WE ARE NOW TRANSITIONING TO A TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT AND WE WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH WINDS MOSTLY BELOW 35
MPH. BIGGEST THING WILL BE THE VERY HOT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
ACROSS MOST VALLEY AND EVEN SOME INLAND COASTAL ZONES IN LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES AND 80S ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FRIDAY THOUGH
EVEN LESS OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AND BRING AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE
AND 5-10 DEGREES WORTH OF COOLING FOR THE COAST AND 3-6 DEGREES
COOLING FOR THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH MOST
AREAS BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL POP BACK UP
MONDAY FOR A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THEN
FLATTENS OUT AGAIN WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SO A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING TUE/WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY
START SEEING SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING AT SOME POINT
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT DAY THAT WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z

AT 1700 Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT
KPRB 13Z-18Z.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH
MTN WAVE ACTIVITY AND LLWS LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH
LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/230 PM

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS WINDS COULD GUST LOCALLY TO 25
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 252005
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
105 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...THEN WEAKEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH  WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND RECORD
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOONS OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A COOLING TREND...BUT A HIGH
BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...THE WARMUP HAS BEGUN AND NORTH WINDS HAVE
ABATED. WE ARE NOW TRANSITIONING TO A TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT AND WE WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH WINDS MOSTLY BELOW 35
MPH. BIGGEST THING WILL BE THE VERY HOT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
ACROSS MOST VALLEY AND EVEN SOME INLAND COASTAL ZONES IN LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES AND 80S ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FRIDAY THOUGH
EVEN LESS OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AND BRING AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE
AND 5-10 DEGREES WORTH OF COOLING FOR THE COAST AND 3-6 DEGREES
COOLING FOR THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH MOST
AREAS BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL POP BACK UP
MONDAY FOR A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THEN
FLATTENS OUT AGAIN WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SO A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING TUE/WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY
START SEEING SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING AT SOME POINT
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT DAY THAT WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z

AT 1700 Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT
KPRB 13Z-18Z.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH
MTN WAVE ACTIVITY AND LLWS LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH
LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
ZONES.  THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS AND IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL AND SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THIS MORNING BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 252005
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
105 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...THEN WEAKEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH  WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND RECORD
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOONS OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A COOLING TREND...BUT A HIGH
BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...THE WARMUP HAS BEGUN AND NORTH WINDS HAVE
ABATED. WE ARE NOW TRANSITIONING TO A TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT AND WE WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH WINDS MOSTLY BELOW 35
MPH. BIGGEST THING WILL BE THE VERY HOT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
ACROSS MOST VALLEY AND EVEN SOME INLAND COASTAL ZONES IN LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES AND 80S ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FRIDAY THOUGH
EVEN LESS OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AND BRING AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE
AND 5-10 DEGREES WORTH OF COOLING FOR THE COAST AND 3-6 DEGREES
COOLING FOR THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH MOST
AREAS BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL POP BACK UP
MONDAY FOR A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THEN
FLATTENS OUT AGAIN WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SO A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING TUE/WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY
START SEEING SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING AT SOME POINT
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT DAY THAT WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z

AT 1700 Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT
KPRB 13Z-18Z.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH
MTN WAVE ACTIVITY AND LLWS LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH
LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
ZONES.  THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS AND IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL AND SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THIS MORNING BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 251749
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BRIEF LULLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON
FRIDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NORTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO NEVADA. THIS MEANS
THAT SOME PLACES THAT WERE SUPER WINDY LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
WON`T BE AS WINDY TODAY AND THURSDAY AND OTHERS THAT WERE CALM WILL
BE WINDIER. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE UPPER
SUPPORT FOR THE SANTA ANA PORTION OF THIS WIND EVENT AND RIGHT NOW
I`M NOT INCLINED TO GO WITH ANY WIND ADVISORIES BEYOND THE CURRENT
NOON EXPIRATION TODAY. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH LOCAL VENTURA/LA
VALLEY AND COAST GUSTS 30-35 MPH AND FAVORED MTN SPOTS IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

WARMING TREND ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY 80S TODAY AND MID 80S TO MID 90S
THU/FRI. WINDS FRIDAY A NOTCH LOWER THAN THU.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
EC AND GFS NOW AGREE ON SATURDAYS FORECAST AND BOTH BRING A WEAK
TROF INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND KNOCK THE OFFSHORE
FLOW DOWN. THERE WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING BUT DESPITE THIS
COOLING MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

FURTHER COOLING SUNDAY AS A LITTLE CUT OFF LOW SETS UP WEST OF THE
AREA. IT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THUS WILL NOT BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF HGT FALLS TO THE AREA.

AND THEN ITS TWO MORE DAYS OF RIDGING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WEAK OFFSHORE SETS UP MONDAY AND THEN STRONGER NW SFC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z

AT 1700 Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT
KPRB 13Z-18Z.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH
MTN WAVE ACTIVITY AND LLWS LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH
LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
ZONES.  THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS AND IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL AND SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THIS MORNING BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 251749
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BRIEF LULLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON
FRIDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NORTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO NEVADA. THIS MEANS
THAT SOME PLACES THAT WERE SUPER WINDY LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
WON`T BE AS WINDY TODAY AND THURSDAY AND OTHERS THAT WERE CALM WILL
BE WINDIER. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE UPPER
SUPPORT FOR THE SANTA ANA PORTION OF THIS WIND EVENT AND RIGHT NOW
I`M NOT INCLINED TO GO WITH ANY WIND ADVISORIES BEYOND THE CURRENT
NOON EXPIRATION TODAY. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH LOCAL VENTURA/LA
VALLEY AND COAST GUSTS 30-35 MPH AND FAVORED MTN SPOTS IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

WARMING TREND ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY 80S TODAY AND MID 80S TO MID 90S
THU/FRI. WINDS FRIDAY A NOTCH LOWER THAN THU.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
EC AND GFS NOW AGREE ON SATURDAYS FORECAST AND BOTH BRING A WEAK
TROF INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND KNOCK THE OFFSHORE
FLOW DOWN. THERE WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING BUT DESPITE THIS
COOLING MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

FURTHER COOLING SUNDAY AS A LITTLE CUT OFF LOW SETS UP WEST OF THE
AREA. IT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THUS WILL NOT BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF HGT FALLS TO THE AREA.

AND THEN ITS TWO MORE DAYS OF RIDGING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WEAK OFFSHORE SETS UP MONDAY AND THEN STRONGER NW SFC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z

AT 1700 Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT
KPRB 13Z-18Z.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH
MTN WAVE ACTIVITY AND LLWS LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH
LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
ZONES.  THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS AND IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL AND SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THIS MORNING BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 251749
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BRIEF LULLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON
FRIDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NORTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO NEVADA. THIS MEANS
THAT SOME PLACES THAT WERE SUPER WINDY LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
WON`T BE AS WINDY TODAY AND THURSDAY AND OTHERS THAT WERE CALM WILL
BE WINDIER. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE UPPER
SUPPORT FOR THE SANTA ANA PORTION OF THIS WIND EVENT AND RIGHT NOW
I`M NOT INCLINED TO GO WITH ANY WIND ADVISORIES BEYOND THE CURRENT
NOON EXPIRATION TODAY. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH LOCAL VENTURA/LA
VALLEY AND COAST GUSTS 30-35 MPH AND FAVORED MTN SPOTS IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

WARMING TREND ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY 80S TODAY AND MID 80S TO MID 90S
THU/FRI. WINDS FRIDAY A NOTCH LOWER THAN THU.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
EC AND GFS NOW AGREE ON SATURDAYS FORECAST AND BOTH BRING A WEAK
TROF INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND KNOCK THE OFFSHORE
FLOW DOWN. THERE WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING BUT DESPITE THIS
COOLING MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

FURTHER COOLING SUNDAY AS A LITTLE CUT OFF LOW SETS UP WEST OF THE
AREA. IT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THUS WILL NOT BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF HGT FALLS TO THE AREA.

AND THEN ITS TWO MORE DAYS OF RIDGING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WEAK OFFSHORE SETS UP MONDAY AND THEN STRONGER NW SFC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z

AT 1700 Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT
KPRB 13Z-18Z.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH
MTN WAVE ACTIVITY AND LLWS LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH
LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
ZONES.  THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS AND IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL AND SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THIS MORNING BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 251749
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BRIEF LULLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON
FRIDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NORTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO NEVADA. THIS MEANS
THAT SOME PLACES THAT WERE SUPER WINDY LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
WON`T BE AS WINDY TODAY AND THURSDAY AND OTHERS THAT WERE CALM WILL
BE WINDIER. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE UPPER
SUPPORT FOR THE SANTA ANA PORTION OF THIS WIND EVENT AND RIGHT NOW
I`M NOT INCLINED TO GO WITH ANY WIND ADVISORIES BEYOND THE CURRENT
NOON EXPIRATION TODAY. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH LOCAL VENTURA/LA
VALLEY AND COAST GUSTS 30-35 MPH AND FAVORED MTN SPOTS IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

WARMING TREND ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY 80S TODAY AND MID 80S TO MID 90S
THU/FRI. WINDS FRIDAY A NOTCH LOWER THAN THU.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
EC AND GFS NOW AGREE ON SATURDAYS FORECAST AND BOTH BRING A WEAK
TROF INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND KNOCK THE OFFSHORE
FLOW DOWN. THERE WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING BUT DESPITE THIS
COOLING MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

FURTHER COOLING SUNDAY AS A LITTLE CUT OFF LOW SETS UP WEST OF THE
AREA. IT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THUS WILL NOT BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF HGT FALLS TO THE AREA.

AND THEN ITS TWO MORE DAYS OF RIDGING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WEAK OFFSHORE SETS UP MONDAY AND THEN STRONGER NW SFC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z

AT 1700 Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT
KPRB 13Z-18Z.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH
MTN WAVE ACTIVITY AND LLWS LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH
LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
ZONES.  THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS AND IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL AND SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THIS MORNING BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 251629
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BRIEF LULLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON
FRIDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NORTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO NEVADA. THIS MEANS
THAT SOME PLACES THAT WERE SUPER WINDY LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
WON`T BE AS WINDY TODAY AND THURSDAY AND OTHERS THAT WERE CALM WILL
BE WINDIER. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE UPPER
SUPPORT FOR THE SANTA ANA PORTION OF THIS WIND EVENT AND RIGHT NOW
I`M NOT INCLINED TO GO WITH ANY WIND ADVISORIES BEYOND THE CURRENT
NOON EXPIRATION TODAY. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH LOCAL VENTURA/LA
VALLEY AND COAST GUSTS 30-35 MPH AND FAVORED MTN SPOTS IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

WARMING TREND ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY 80S TODAY AND MID 80S TO MID 90S
THU/FRI. WINDS FRIDAY A NOTCH LOWER THAN THU.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
EC AND GFS NOW AGREE ON SATURDAYS FORECAST AND BOTH BRING A WEAK
TROF INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND KNOCK THE OFFSHORE
FLOW DOWN. THERE WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING BUT DESPITE THIS
COOLING MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

FURTHER COOLING SUNDAY AS A LITTLE CUT OFF LOW SETS UP WEST OF THE
AREA. IT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THUS WILL NOT BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF HGT FALLS TO THE AREA.

AND THEN ITS TWO MORE DAYS OF RIDGING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WEAK OFFSHORE SETS UP MONDAY AND THEN STRONGER NW SFC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1025Z

THERE IS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF N WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
17Z...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LLWS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.
LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
ZONES.  THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS AND IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL AND SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THIS MORNING BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 251629
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BRIEF LULLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON
FRIDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NORTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO NEVADA. THIS MEANS
THAT SOME PLACES THAT WERE SUPER WINDY LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
WON`T BE AS WINDY TODAY AND THURSDAY AND OTHERS THAT WERE CALM WILL
BE WINDIER. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE UPPER
SUPPORT FOR THE SANTA ANA PORTION OF THIS WIND EVENT AND RIGHT NOW
I`M NOT INCLINED TO GO WITH ANY WIND ADVISORIES BEYOND THE CURRENT
NOON EXPIRATION TODAY. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH LOCAL VENTURA/LA
VALLEY AND COAST GUSTS 30-35 MPH AND FAVORED MTN SPOTS IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

WARMING TREND ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY 80S TODAY AND MID 80S TO MID 90S
THU/FRI. WINDS FRIDAY A NOTCH LOWER THAN THU.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
EC AND GFS NOW AGREE ON SATURDAYS FORECAST AND BOTH BRING A WEAK
TROF INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND KNOCK THE OFFSHORE
FLOW DOWN. THERE WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING BUT DESPITE THIS
COOLING MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

FURTHER COOLING SUNDAY AS A LITTLE CUT OFF LOW SETS UP WEST OF THE
AREA. IT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THUS WILL NOT BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF HGT FALLS TO THE AREA.

AND THEN ITS TWO MORE DAYS OF RIDGING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WEAK OFFSHORE SETS UP MONDAY AND THEN STRONGER NW SFC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1025Z

THERE IS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF N WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
17Z...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LLWS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.
LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
ZONES.  THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS AND IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL AND SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THIS MORNING BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 251629
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BRIEF LULLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON
FRIDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NORTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO NEVADA. THIS MEANS
THAT SOME PLACES THAT WERE SUPER WINDY LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
WON`T BE AS WINDY TODAY AND THURSDAY AND OTHERS THAT WERE CALM WILL
BE WINDIER. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE UPPER
SUPPORT FOR THE SANTA ANA PORTION OF THIS WIND EVENT AND RIGHT NOW
I`M NOT INCLINED TO GO WITH ANY WIND ADVISORIES BEYOND THE CURRENT
NOON EXPIRATION TODAY. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH LOCAL VENTURA/LA
VALLEY AND COAST GUSTS 30-35 MPH AND FAVORED MTN SPOTS IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

WARMING TREND ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY 80S TODAY AND MID 80S TO MID 90S
THU/FRI. WINDS FRIDAY A NOTCH LOWER THAN THU.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
EC AND GFS NOW AGREE ON SATURDAYS FORECAST AND BOTH BRING A WEAK
TROF INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND KNOCK THE OFFSHORE
FLOW DOWN. THERE WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING BUT DESPITE THIS
COOLING MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

FURTHER COOLING SUNDAY AS A LITTLE CUT OFF LOW SETS UP WEST OF THE
AREA. IT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THUS WILL NOT BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF HGT FALLS TO THE AREA.

AND THEN ITS TWO MORE DAYS OF RIDGING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WEAK OFFSHORE SETS UP MONDAY AND THEN STRONGER NW SFC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1025Z

THERE IS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF N WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
17Z...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LLWS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.
LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
ZONES.  THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS AND IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL AND SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THIS MORNING BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 251629
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BRIEF LULLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON
FRIDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NORTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO NEVADA. THIS MEANS
THAT SOME PLACES THAT WERE SUPER WINDY LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
WON`T BE AS WINDY TODAY AND THURSDAY AND OTHERS THAT WERE CALM WILL
BE WINDIER. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE UPPER
SUPPORT FOR THE SANTA ANA PORTION OF THIS WIND EVENT AND RIGHT NOW
I`M NOT INCLINED TO GO WITH ANY WIND ADVISORIES BEYOND THE CURRENT
NOON EXPIRATION TODAY. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH LOCAL VENTURA/LA
VALLEY AND COAST GUSTS 30-35 MPH AND FAVORED MTN SPOTS IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

WARMING TREND ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY 80S TODAY AND MID 80S TO MID 90S
THU/FRI. WINDS FRIDAY A NOTCH LOWER THAN THU.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
EC AND GFS NOW AGREE ON SATURDAYS FORECAST AND BOTH BRING A WEAK
TROF INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND KNOCK THE OFFSHORE
FLOW DOWN. THERE WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING BUT DESPITE THIS
COOLING MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

FURTHER COOLING SUNDAY AS A LITTLE CUT OFF LOW SETS UP WEST OF THE
AREA. IT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THUS WILL NOT BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF HGT FALLS TO THE AREA.

AND THEN ITS TWO MORE DAYS OF RIDGING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WEAK OFFSHORE SETS UP MONDAY AND THEN STRONGER NW SFC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1025Z

THERE IS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF N WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
17Z...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LLWS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.
LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
ZONES.  THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS AND IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL AND SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THIS MORNING BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 251600
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BRIEF LULLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON
FRIDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NORTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO NEVADA. THIS MEANS
THAT SOME PLACES THAT WERE SUPER WINDY LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
WON`T BE AS WINDY TODAY AND THURSDAY AND OTHERS THAT WERE CALM WILL
BE WINDIER. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE UPPER
SUPPORT FOR THE SANTA ANA PORTION OF THIS WIND EVENT AND RIGHT NOW
I`M NOT INCLINED TO GO WITH ANY WIND ADVISORIES BEYOND THE CURRENT
NOON EXPIRATION TODAY. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH LOCAL VENTURA/LA
VALLEY AND COAST GUSTS 30-35 MPH AND FAVORED MTN SPOTS IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

WARMING TREND ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY 80S TODAY AND MID 80S TO MID 90S
THU/FRI. WINDS FRIDAY A NOTCH LOWER THAN THU.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
EC AND GFS NOW AGREE ON SATURDAYS FORECAST AND BOTH BRING A WEAK
TROF INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND KNOCK THE OFFSHORE
FLOW DOWN. THERE WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING BUT DESPITE THIS
COOLING MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

FURTHER COOLING SUNDAY AS A LITTLE CUT OFF LOW SETS UP WEST OF THE
AREA. IT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THUS WILL NOT BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF HGT FALLS TO THE AREA.

AND THEN ITS TWO MORE DAYS OF RIDGING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WEAK OFFSHORE SETS UP MONDAY AND THEN STRONGER NW SFC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1025Z

THERE IS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF N WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
17Z...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LLWS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.
LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/325 AM.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS BY MID MORNING...AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY MID AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED AFTER THE GALES EXPIRE...WITH SCA
CONDS LIKELY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD REACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INNER WATERS...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT BELOW "SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS"
LEVELS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NE WINDS FROM VTU TO SANTA
MONICA THU MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 251600
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BRIEF LULLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON
FRIDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NORTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO NEVADA. THIS MEANS
THAT SOME PLACES THAT WERE SUPER WINDY LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
WON`T BE AS WINDY TODAY AND THURSDAY AND OTHERS THAT WERE CALM WILL
BE WINDIER. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE UPPER
SUPPORT FOR THE SANTA ANA PORTION OF THIS WIND EVENT AND RIGHT NOW
I`M NOT INCLINED TO GO WITH ANY WIND ADVISORIES BEYOND THE CURRENT
NOON EXPIRATION TODAY. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH LOCAL VENTURA/LA
VALLEY AND COAST GUSTS 30-35 MPH AND FAVORED MTN SPOTS IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

WARMING TREND ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY 80S TODAY AND MID 80S TO MID 90S
THU/FRI. WINDS FRIDAY A NOTCH LOWER THAN THU.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
EC AND GFS NOW AGREE ON SATURDAYS FORECAST AND BOTH BRING A WEAK
TROF INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND KNOCK THE OFFSHORE
FLOW DOWN. THERE WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING BUT DESPITE THIS
COOLING MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

FURTHER COOLING SUNDAY AS A LITTLE CUT OFF LOW SETS UP WEST OF THE
AREA. IT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THUS WILL NOT BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF HGT FALLS TO THE AREA.

AND THEN ITS TWO MORE DAYS OF RIDGING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WEAK OFFSHORE SETS UP MONDAY AND THEN STRONGER NW SFC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1025Z

THERE IS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF N WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
17Z...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LLWS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.
LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/325 AM.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS BY MID MORNING...AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY MID AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED AFTER THE GALES EXPIRE...WITH SCA
CONDS LIKELY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD REACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INNER WATERS...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT BELOW "SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS"
LEVELS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NE WINDS FROM VTU TO SANTA
MONICA THU MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 251600
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BRIEF LULLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON
FRIDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NORTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO NEVADA. THIS MEANS
THAT SOME PLACES THAT WERE SUPER WINDY LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
WON`T BE AS WINDY TODAY AND THURSDAY AND OTHERS THAT WERE CALM WILL
BE WINDIER. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE UPPER
SUPPORT FOR THE SANTA ANA PORTION OF THIS WIND EVENT AND RIGHT NOW
I`M NOT INCLINED TO GO WITH ANY WIND ADVISORIES BEYOND THE CURRENT
NOON EXPIRATION TODAY. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH LOCAL VENTURA/LA
VALLEY AND COAST GUSTS 30-35 MPH AND FAVORED MTN SPOTS IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

WARMING TREND ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY 80S TODAY AND MID 80S TO MID 90S
THU/FRI. WINDS FRIDAY A NOTCH LOWER THAN THU.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
EC AND GFS NOW AGREE ON SATURDAYS FORECAST AND BOTH BRING A WEAK
TROF INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND KNOCK THE OFFSHORE
FLOW DOWN. THERE WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING BUT DESPITE THIS
COOLING MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

FURTHER COOLING SUNDAY AS A LITTLE CUT OFF LOW SETS UP WEST OF THE
AREA. IT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THUS WILL NOT BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF HGT FALLS TO THE AREA.

AND THEN ITS TWO MORE DAYS OF RIDGING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WEAK OFFSHORE SETS UP MONDAY AND THEN STRONGER NW SFC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1025Z

THERE IS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF N WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
17Z...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LLWS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.
LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/325 AM.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS BY MID MORNING...AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY MID AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED AFTER THE GALES EXPIRE...WITH SCA
CONDS LIKELY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD REACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INNER WATERS...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT BELOW "SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS"
LEVELS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NE WINDS FROM VTU TO SANTA
MONICA THU MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 251028 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BRIEF LULLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON
FRIDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SURPRISINGLY STRONG
GUSTS REPORTED AT THE MONTECITO SENSOR (63 MPH) AND WHITAKER PEAK
(83 MPH) LAST NIGHTS WINDS CAME IN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED
DUE TO SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WAS NOT PICKED UP ON. A SMALL
MTN WAVE BROKE OVER THE BEVERLY HILLS AREA AND KNOCKED OVER A FEW
TREES CREATING POWER OUTAGES. WIND ADVISORIES COVER ALMOST ALL OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION EXCEPT FOR THE AV...THE VTA CST
AND THE SGV. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS THE BIG NEWS TODAY WILL BE THE MAX
TEMPS WHICH WILL RISE INTO THE 80S ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE CST AND
VLY LOCATIONS.

NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN BLO ADVISORY
LEVELS.

A WINDY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THURSDAY WITH A 583 DM RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND ABOUT 5 MB OF OFFSHORE FLOW FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND THE
EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WINDY
SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE LA AND VTA COAST AND VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM
FURTHER WITH MORE THAN A FEW MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
RECORDS ARE FAIRLY HIGH SO EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL NOT BREAK ANY RECORDS.

MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY BUT THE GRADIENTS WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
WEAKER SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. RECORDS ARE LOWER FRIDAY SO DESPITE THE TEMPS WILL
BE NEARLY THE SAME AS THURSDAY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO FALL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
EC AND GFS NOW AGREE ON SATURDAYS FORECAST AND BOTH BRING A WEAK
TROF INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND KNOCK THE OFFSHORE
FLOW DOWN. THERE WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING BUT DESPITE THIS
COOLING MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

FURTHER COOLING SUNDAY AS A LITTLE CUT OFF LOW SETS UP WEST OF THE
AREA. IT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THUS WILL NOT BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF HGT FALLS TO THE AREA.

AND THEN ITS TWO MORE DAYS OF RIDGING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WEAK OFFSHORE SETS UP MONDAY AND THEN STRONGER NW SFC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1025Z

THERE IS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF N WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
17Z...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LLWS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.
LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/325 AM.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS BY MID MORNING...AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY MID AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED AFTER THE GALES EXPIRE...WITH SCA
CONDS LIKELY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD REACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INNER WATERS...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT BELOW "SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS"
LEVELS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NE WINDS FROM VTU TO SANTA
MONICA THU MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 251028 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BRIEF LULLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON
FRIDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SURPRISINGLY STRONG
GUSTS REPORTED AT THE MONTECITO SENSOR (63 MPH) AND WHITAKER PEAK
(83 MPH) LAST NIGHTS WINDS CAME IN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED
DUE TO SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WAS NOT PICKED UP ON. A SMALL
MTN WAVE BROKE OVER THE BEVERLY HILLS AREA AND KNOCKED OVER A FEW
TREES CREATING POWER OUTAGES. WIND ADVISORIES COVER ALMOST ALL OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION EXCEPT FOR THE AV...THE VTA CST
AND THE SGV. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS THE BIG NEWS TODAY WILL BE THE MAX
TEMPS WHICH WILL RISE INTO THE 80S ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE CST AND
VLY LOCATIONS.

NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN BLO ADVISORY
LEVELS.

A WINDY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THURSDAY WITH A 583 DM RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND ABOUT 5 MB OF OFFSHORE FLOW FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND THE
EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WINDY
SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE LA AND VTA COAST AND VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM
FURTHER WITH MORE THAN A FEW MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
RECORDS ARE FAIRLY HIGH SO EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL NOT BREAK ANY RECORDS.

MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY BUT THE GRADIENTS WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
WEAKER SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. RECORDS ARE LOWER FRIDAY SO DESPITE THE TEMPS WILL
BE NEARLY THE SAME AS THURSDAY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO FALL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
EC AND GFS NOW AGREE ON SATURDAYS FORECAST AND BOTH BRING A WEAK
TROF INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND KNOCK THE OFFSHORE
FLOW DOWN. THERE WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING BUT DESPITE THIS
COOLING MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

FURTHER COOLING SUNDAY AS A LITTLE CUT OFF LOW SETS UP WEST OF THE
AREA. IT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THUS WILL NOT BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF HGT FALLS TO THE AREA.

AND THEN ITS TWO MORE DAYS OF RIDGING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WEAK OFFSHORE SETS UP MONDAY AND THEN STRONGER NW SFC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1025Z

THERE IS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF N WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
17Z...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LLWS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.
LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/325 AM.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS BY MID MORNING...AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY MID AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED AFTER THE GALES EXPIRE...WITH SCA
CONDS LIKELY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD REACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INNER WATERS...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT BELOW "SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS"
LEVELS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NE WINDS FROM VTU TO SANTA
MONICA THU MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 251015
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BRIEF LULLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON
FRIDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SURPRISINGLY STRONG
GUSTS REPORTED AT THE MONTECITO SENSOR (63 MPH) AND WHITTIER PEAK
(83 MPH) LAST NIGHTS WINDS CAME IN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED
DUE TO SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WAS NOT PICKED UP ON. A SMALL
MTN WAVE BROKE OVER THE BEVERLY HILLS AREA AND KNOCKED OVER A FEW
TREES CREATING POWER OUTAGES. WIND ADVISORIES COVER ALMOST ALL OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION EXCEPT FOR THE AV...THE VTA CST
AND THE SGV. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS THE BIG NEWS TODAY WILL BE THE MAX
TEMPS WHICH WILL RISE INTO THE 80S ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE CST AND
VLY LOCATIONS.

NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN BLO ADVISORY
LEVELS.

A WINDY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THURSDAY WITH A 583 DM RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND ABOUT 5 MB OF OFFSHORE FLOW FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND THE
EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WINDY
SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE LA AND VTA COAST AND VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM
FURTHER WITH MORE THAN A FEW MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
RECORDS ARE FAIRLY HIGH SO EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL NOT BREAK ANY RECORDS.

MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY BUT THE GRADIENTS WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
WEAKER SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. RECORDS ARE LOWER FRIDAY SO DESPITE THE TEMPS WILL
BE NEARLY THE SAME AS THURSDAY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO FALL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
EC AND GFS NOW AGREE ON SATURDAYS FORECAST AND BOTH BRING A WEAK
TROF INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND KNOCK THE OFFSHORE
FLOW DOWN. THERE WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING BUT DESPITE THIS
COOLING MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

FURTHER COOLING SUNDAY AS A LITTLE CUT OFF LOW SETS UP WEST OF THE
AREA. IT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THUS WILL NOT BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF HGT FALLS TO THE AREA.

AND THEN ITS TWO MORE DAYS OF RIDGING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WEAK OFFSHORE SETS UP MONDAY AND THEN STRONGER NW SFC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1030Z

THERE IS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS. LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IS SOLID GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...STRONGEST OVER THE WATERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND AND WESTWARD WHERE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON.
STRONG NORTH WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST...ALSO AFFECTING THE WATERS NEAR
GAVIOTA...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND NOON
TOMORROW. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PZZ655 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE SANTA MONICA BAY. STEEP ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS TONIGHT...WITH LARGE STEEP SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO EASE SLIGHTLY AS WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 251015
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BRIEF LULLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON
FRIDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SURPRISINGLY STRONG
GUSTS REPORTED AT THE MONTECITO SENSOR (63 MPH) AND WHITTIER PEAK
(83 MPH) LAST NIGHTS WINDS CAME IN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED
DUE TO SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WAS NOT PICKED UP ON. A SMALL
MTN WAVE BROKE OVER THE BEVERLY HILLS AREA AND KNOCKED OVER A FEW
TREES CREATING POWER OUTAGES. WIND ADVISORIES COVER ALMOST ALL OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION EXCEPT FOR THE AV...THE VTA CST
AND THE SGV. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS THE BIG NEWS TODAY WILL BE THE MAX
TEMPS WHICH WILL RISE INTO THE 80S ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE CST AND
VLY LOCATIONS.

NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN BLO ADVISORY
LEVELS.

A WINDY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THURSDAY WITH A 583 DM RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND ABOUT 5 MB OF OFFSHORE FLOW FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND THE
EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WINDY
SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE LA AND VTA COAST AND VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM
FURTHER WITH MORE THAN A FEW MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
RECORDS ARE FAIRLY HIGH SO EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL NOT BREAK ANY RECORDS.

MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY BUT THE GRADIENTS WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
WEAKER SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. RECORDS ARE LOWER FRIDAY SO DESPITE THE TEMPS WILL
BE NEARLY THE SAME AS THURSDAY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO FALL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
EC AND GFS NOW AGREE ON SATURDAYS FORECAST AND BOTH BRING A WEAK
TROF INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND KNOCK THE OFFSHORE
FLOW DOWN. THERE WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING BUT DESPITE THIS
COOLING MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

FURTHER COOLING SUNDAY AS A LITTLE CUT OFF LOW SETS UP WEST OF THE
AREA. IT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THUS WILL NOT BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF HGT FALLS TO THE AREA.

AND THEN ITS TWO MORE DAYS OF RIDGING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WEAK OFFSHORE SETS UP MONDAY AND THEN STRONGER NW SFC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1030Z

THERE IS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS. LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IS SOLID GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...STRONGEST OVER THE WATERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND AND WESTWARD WHERE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON.
STRONG NORTH WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST...ALSO AFFECTING THE WATERS NEAR
GAVIOTA...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND NOON
TOMORROW. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PZZ655 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE SANTA MONICA BAY. STEEP ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS TONIGHT...WITH LARGE STEEP SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO EASE SLIGHTLY AS WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 250541
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TURN NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK ONSHORE BREEZES RETURNING.

&&

.UPDATE...

NORTHERLY WINDS ARE TAD STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING AS WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS SAN FERNANDO AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEYS THIS EVENING...AND
THROUGH THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ADDED
EARLIER FOR THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS...AND THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY...ALL ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT
WEDNESDAY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE VENTURA
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTAL PORTION FROM
MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WIND FLOW VEERS
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TURN OFFSHORE
LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WARMING WILL BE INTRODUCED ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT THE MAIN
WARMUP IS EXPECTED WED WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING THU AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REALLY TAKES HOLD. BY THU WE SHOULD SEE A NUMBER OF VALLEY
AND POSSIBLY SOME INTERIOR COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED HIGH TEMP RECORDS ARE
CLOSE TO 100 IN SOME PLACES SO WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE RECORDS
FALL FRIDAY DESPITE LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST HIGHS. OFFSHORE
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH WEAKER THAN WED/THU.
THU WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST COASTAL WINDS AS THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS PEAK AT THAT TIME.

LONG TERM...MODEL AGREEMENT GOES SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
EITHER WAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COOLING TREND BEGINNING
SATURDAY. MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN LATE FRIDAY
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLING MAY BE
A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED ON SATURDAY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. THE EC ALSO SHOWS A FASTER
REBOUND TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN THE RATHER STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS. MINIMAL
IMPACTS THOUGH AS IT`S A DRY PATTERN EITHER WAY, JUST A QUESTION
ON WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE. DRY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A BENIGN
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/0530Z

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS. LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IS SOLID GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...STRONGEST OVER THE WATERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND AND WESTWARD WHERE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON.
STRONG NORTH WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST...ALSO AFFECTING THE WATERS NEAR
GAVIOTA...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND NOON
TOMORROW. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PZZ655 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE SANTA MONICA BAY. STEEP ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS TONIGHT...WITH LARGE STEEP SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO EASE SLIGHTLY AS WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 250541
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TURN NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK ONSHORE BREEZES RETURNING.

&&

.UPDATE...

NORTHERLY WINDS ARE TAD STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING AS WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS SAN FERNANDO AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEYS THIS EVENING...AND
THROUGH THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ADDED
EARLIER FOR THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS...AND THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY...ALL ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT
WEDNESDAY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE VENTURA
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTAL PORTION FROM
MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WIND FLOW VEERS
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TURN OFFSHORE
LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WARMING WILL BE INTRODUCED ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT THE MAIN
WARMUP IS EXPECTED WED WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING THU AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REALLY TAKES HOLD. BY THU WE SHOULD SEE A NUMBER OF VALLEY
AND POSSIBLY SOME INTERIOR COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED HIGH TEMP RECORDS ARE
CLOSE TO 100 IN SOME PLACES SO WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE RECORDS
FALL FRIDAY DESPITE LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST HIGHS. OFFSHORE
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH WEAKER THAN WED/THU.
THU WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST COASTAL WINDS AS THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS PEAK AT THAT TIME.

LONG TERM...MODEL AGREEMENT GOES SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
EITHER WAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COOLING TREND BEGINNING
SATURDAY. MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN LATE FRIDAY
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLING MAY BE
A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED ON SATURDAY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. THE EC ALSO SHOWS A FASTER
REBOUND TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN THE RATHER STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS. MINIMAL
IMPACTS THOUGH AS IT`S A DRY PATTERN EITHER WAY, JUST A QUESTION
ON WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE. DRY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A BENIGN
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/0530Z

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS. LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IS SOLID GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...STRONGEST OVER THE WATERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND AND WESTWARD WHERE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON.
STRONG NORTH WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST...ALSO AFFECTING THE WATERS NEAR
GAVIOTA...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND NOON
TOMORROW. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PZZ655 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE SANTA MONICA BAY. STEEP ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS TONIGHT...WITH LARGE STEEP SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO EASE SLIGHTLY AS WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 250541
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TURN NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK ONSHORE BREEZES RETURNING.

&&

.UPDATE...

NORTHERLY WINDS ARE TAD STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING AS WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS SAN FERNANDO AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEYS THIS EVENING...AND
THROUGH THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ADDED
EARLIER FOR THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS...AND THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY...ALL ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT
WEDNESDAY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE VENTURA
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTAL PORTION FROM
MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WIND FLOW VEERS
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TURN OFFSHORE
LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WARMING WILL BE INTRODUCED ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT THE MAIN
WARMUP IS EXPECTED WED WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING THU AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REALLY TAKES HOLD. BY THU WE SHOULD SEE A NUMBER OF VALLEY
AND POSSIBLY SOME INTERIOR COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED HIGH TEMP RECORDS ARE
CLOSE TO 100 IN SOME PLACES SO WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE RECORDS
FALL FRIDAY DESPITE LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST HIGHS. OFFSHORE
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH WEAKER THAN WED/THU.
THU WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST COASTAL WINDS AS THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS PEAK AT THAT TIME.

LONG TERM...MODEL AGREEMENT GOES SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
EITHER WAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COOLING TREND BEGINNING
SATURDAY. MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN LATE FRIDAY
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLING MAY BE
A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED ON SATURDAY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. THE EC ALSO SHOWS A FASTER
REBOUND TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN THE RATHER STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS. MINIMAL
IMPACTS THOUGH AS IT`S A DRY PATTERN EITHER WAY, JUST A QUESTION
ON WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE. DRY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A BENIGN
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/0530Z

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS. LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IS SOLID GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...STRONGEST OVER THE WATERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND AND WESTWARD WHERE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON.
STRONG NORTH WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST...ALSO AFFECTING THE WATERS NEAR
GAVIOTA...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND NOON
TOMORROW. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PZZ655 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE SANTA MONICA BAY. STEEP ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS TONIGHT...WITH LARGE STEEP SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO EASE SLIGHTLY AS WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 250541
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TURN NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK ONSHORE BREEZES RETURNING.

&&

.UPDATE...

NORTHERLY WINDS ARE TAD STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING AS WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS SAN FERNANDO AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEYS THIS EVENING...AND
THROUGH THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ADDED
EARLIER FOR THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS...AND THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY...ALL ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT
WEDNESDAY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE VENTURA
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTAL PORTION FROM
MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WIND FLOW VEERS
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TURN OFFSHORE
LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WARMING WILL BE INTRODUCED ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT THE MAIN
WARMUP IS EXPECTED WED WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING THU AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REALLY TAKES HOLD. BY THU WE SHOULD SEE A NUMBER OF VALLEY
AND POSSIBLY SOME INTERIOR COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED HIGH TEMP RECORDS ARE
CLOSE TO 100 IN SOME PLACES SO WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE RECORDS
FALL FRIDAY DESPITE LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST HIGHS. OFFSHORE
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH WEAKER THAN WED/THU.
THU WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST COASTAL WINDS AS THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS PEAK AT THAT TIME.

LONG TERM...MODEL AGREEMENT GOES SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
EITHER WAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COOLING TREND BEGINNING
SATURDAY. MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN LATE FRIDAY
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLING MAY BE
A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED ON SATURDAY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. THE EC ALSO SHOWS A FASTER
REBOUND TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN THE RATHER STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS. MINIMAL
IMPACTS THOUGH AS IT`S A DRY PATTERN EITHER WAY, JUST A QUESTION
ON WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE. DRY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A BENIGN
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/0530Z

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS. LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IS SOLID GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...STRONGEST OVER THE WATERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND AND WESTWARD WHERE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON.
STRONG NORTH WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST...ALSO AFFECTING THE WATERS NEAR
GAVIOTA...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND NOON
TOMORROW. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PZZ655 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE SANTA MONICA BAY. STEEP ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS TONIGHT...WITH LARGE STEEP SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO EASE SLIGHTLY AS WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 250413
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
913 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TURN NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK ONSHORE BREEZES RETURNING.

&&

.UPDATE...

NORTHERLY WINDS ARE TAD STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING AS WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS SAN FERNANDO AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEYS THIS EVENING...AND
THROUGH THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ADDED
EARLIER FOR THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS...AND THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY...ALL ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT
WEDNESDAY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE VENTURA
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTAL PORTION FROM
MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WIND FLOW VEERS
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TURN OFFSHORE
LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WARMING WILL BE INTRODUCED ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT THE MAIN
WARMUP IS EXPECTED WED WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING THU AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REALLY TAKES HOLD. BY THU WE SHOULD SEE A NUMBER OF VALLEY
AND POSSIBLY SOME INTERIOR COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED HIGH TEMP RECORDS ARE
CLOSE TO 100 IN SOME PLACES SO WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE RECORDS
FALL FRIDAY DESPITE LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST HIGHS. OFFSHORE
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH WEAKER THAN WED/THU.
THU WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST COASTAL WINDS AS THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS PEAK AT THAT TIME.

LONG TERM...MODEL AGREEMENT GOES SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
EITHER WAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COOLING TREND BEGINNING
SATURDAY. MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN LATE FRIDAY
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLING MAY BE
A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED ON SATURDAY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. THE EC ALSO SHOWS A FASTER
REBOUND TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN THE RATHER STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS. MINIMAL
IMPACTS THOUGH AS IT`S A DRY PATTERN EITHER WAY, JUST A QUESTION
ON WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE. DRY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A BENIGN
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0000Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 02Z AND 20Z...MAINLY AT TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE
IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS GREATER THAN 15 KNOTS
AFFECTING THE AIRFIELD THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z. ANY
EAST WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. PERIODS
OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IS SOLID GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...STRONGEST OVER THE WATERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND AND WESTWARD WHERE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON.
STRONG NORTH WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST...ALSO AFFECTING THE WATERS NEAR
GAVIOTA...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND NOON
TOMORROW. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PZZ655 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE SANTA MONICA BAY. STEEP ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS TONIGHT...WITH LARGE STEEP SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO EASE SLIGHTLY AS WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 250413
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
913 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TURN NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK ONSHORE BREEZES RETURNING.

&&

.UPDATE...

NORTHERLY WINDS ARE TAD STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING AS WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS SAN FERNANDO AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEYS THIS EVENING...AND
THROUGH THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ADDED
EARLIER FOR THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS...AND THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY...ALL ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT
WEDNESDAY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE VENTURA
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTAL PORTION FROM
MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WIND FLOW VEERS
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TURN OFFSHORE
LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WARMING WILL BE INTRODUCED ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT THE MAIN
WARMUP IS EXPECTED WED WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING THU AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REALLY TAKES HOLD. BY THU WE SHOULD SEE A NUMBER OF VALLEY
AND POSSIBLY SOME INTERIOR COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED HIGH TEMP RECORDS ARE
CLOSE TO 100 IN SOME PLACES SO WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE RECORDS
FALL FRIDAY DESPITE LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST HIGHS. OFFSHORE
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH WEAKER THAN WED/THU.
THU WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST COASTAL WINDS AS THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS PEAK AT THAT TIME.

LONG TERM...MODEL AGREEMENT GOES SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
EITHER WAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COOLING TREND BEGINNING
SATURDAY. MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN LATE FRIDAY
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLING MAY BE
A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED ON SATURDAY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. THE EC ALSO SHOWS A FASTER
REBOUND TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN THE RATHER STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS. MINIMAL
IMPACTS THOUGH AS IT`S A DRY PATTERN EITHER WAY, JUST A QUESTION
ON WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE. DRY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A BENIGN
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0000Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 02Z AND 20Z...MAINLY AT TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE
IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS GREATER THAN 15 KNOTS
AFFECTING THE AIRFIELD THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z. ANY
EAST WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. PERIODS
OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IS SOLID GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...STRONGEST OVER THE WATERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND AND WESTWARD WHERE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON.
STRONG NORTH WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST...ALSO AFFECTING THE WATERS NEAR
GAVIOTA...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND NOON
TOMORROW. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PZZ655 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE SANTA MONICA BAY. STEEP ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS TONIGHT...WITH LARGE STEEP SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO EASE SLIGHTLY AS WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 242129
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SANTA ANA
WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON SUNDAY THEN WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND PATTERN CONTINUES
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT FOR VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES WED-FRI. ADVISORIES CURRENTLY COVER JUST THE NW
WIND EVENT BUT MAY NEED EXTENDING BEYOND LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS, THOUGH THE SANTA ANA EVENT IS A MARGINAL ADVISORY
AT THIS POINT AND HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND AT THIS TIME. ALSO, THE
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING MAY BRIEFLY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE
SANTA MONICAS BEFORE THE SWITCH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT THE MAIN WARMUP IS EXPECTED
WED WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY TAKES
HOLD. BY THU WE SHOULD SEE A NUMBER OF VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOME
INTERIOR COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. AS
HAS BEEN MENTIONED HIGH TEMP RECORDS ARE CLOSE TO 100 IN SOME PLACES
SO WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE RECORDS FALL FRIDAY DESPITE LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORECAST HIGHS. OFFSHORE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY, THOUGH WEAKER THAN WED/THU. THU WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONGEST COASTAL WINDS AS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PEAK AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...MODEL AGREEMENT GOES SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH EITHER WAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COOLING TREND BEGINNING
SATURDAY. MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN LATE FRIDAY
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLING MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED ON SATURDAY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. THE EC ALSO SHOWS A FASTER
REBOUND TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN THE RATHER STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS. MINIMAL
IMPACTS THOUGH AS IT`S A DRY PATTERN EITHER WAY, JUST A QUESTION ON
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE. DRY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A BENIGN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

AT 1701Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1000 FEET WITH AN
INVERSION TOP AT 4200 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH
FLOW. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME. THE MOST
VULNERABLE AREAS FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INCLUDE KSBA AND THE LOS
ANGELES VALLEY TAFS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TAFS IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS AFFECTING THE AIRFIELD THIS
EVENING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IT NOW LOOKS MORE QUESTIONABLE WHETHER GALE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS...BUT THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THIS POSSIBILITY.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS AND
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE INNER
WATERS SOUTH OF POINT MUGU. SEAS WILL BE QUITE CHOPPY AND STEEP
ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 242129
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SANTA ANA
WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON SUNDAY THEN WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND PATTERN CONTINUES
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT FOR VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES WED-FRI. ADVISORIES CURRENTLY COVER JUST THE NW
WIND EVENT BUT MAY NEED EXTENDING BEYOND LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS, THOUGH THE SANTA ANA EVENT IS A MARGINAL ADVISORY
AT THIS POINT AND HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND AT THIS TIME. ALSO, THE
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING MAY BRIEFLY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE
SANTA MONICAS BEFORE THE SWITCH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT THE MAIN WARMUP IS EXPECTED
WED WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY TAKES
HOLD. BY THU WE SHOULD SEE A NUMBER OF VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOME
INTERIOR COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. AS
HAS BEEN MENTIONED HIGH TEMP RECORDS ARE CLOSE TO 100 IN SOME PLACES
SO WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE RECORDS FALL FRIDAY DESPITE LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORECAST HIGHS. OFFSHORE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY, THOUGH WEAKER THAN WED/THU. THU WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONGEST COASTAL WINDS AS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PEAK AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...MODEL AGREEMENT GOES SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH EITHER WAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COOLING TREND BEGINNING
SATURDAY. MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN LATE FRIDAY
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLING MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED ON SATURDAY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. THE EC ALSO SHOWS A FASTER
REBOUND TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN THE RATHER STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS. MINIMAL
IMPACTS THOUGH AS IT`S A DRY PATTERN EITHER WAY, JUST A QUESTION ON
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE. DRY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A BENIGN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

AT 1701Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1000 FEET WITH AN
INVERSION TOP AT 4200 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH
FLOW. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME. THE MOST
VULNERABLE AREAS FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INCLUDE KSBA AND THE LOS
ANGELES VALLEY TAFS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TAFS IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS AFFECTING THE AIRFIELD THIS
EVENING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IT NOW LOOKS MORE QUESTIONABLE WHETHER GALE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS...BUT THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THIS POSSIBILITY.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS AND
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE INNER
WATERS SOUTH OF POINT MUGU. SEAS WILL BE QUITE CHOPPY AND STEEP
ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 242129
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SANTA ANA
WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON SUNDAY THEN WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND PATTERN CONTINUES
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT FOR VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES WED-FRI. ADVISORIES CURRENTLY COVER JUST THE NW
WIND EVENT BUT MAY NEED EXTENDING BEYOND LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS, THOUGH THE SANTA ANA EVENT IS A MARGINAL ADVISORY
AT THIS POINT AND HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND AT THIS TIME. ALSO, THE
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING MAY BRIEFLY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE
SANTA MONICAS BEFORE THE SWITCH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT THE MAIN WARMUP IS EXPECTED
WED WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY TAKES
HOLD. BY THU WE SHOULD SEE A NUMBER OF VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOME
INTERIOR COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. AS
HAS BEEN MENTIONED HIGH TEMP RECORDS ARE CLOSE TO 100 IN SOME PLACES
SO WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE RECORDS FALL FRIDAY DESPITE LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORECAST HIGHS. OFFSHORE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY, THOUGH WEAKER THAN WED/THU. THU WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONGEST COASTAL WINDS AS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PEAK AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...MODEL AGREEMENT GOES SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH EITHER WAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COOLING TREND BEGINNING
SATURDAY. MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN LATE FRIDAY
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLING MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED ON SATURDAY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. THE EC ALSO SHOWS A FASTER
REBOUND TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN THE RATHER STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS. MINIMAL
IMPACTS THOUGH AS IT`S A DRY PATTERN EITHER WAY, JUST A QUESTION ON
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE. DRY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A BENIGN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

AT 1701Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1000 FEET WITH AN
INVERSION TOP AT 4200 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH
FLOW. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME. THE MOST
VULNERABLE AREAS FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INCLUDE KSBA AND THE LOS
ANGELES VALLEY TAFS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TAFS IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS AFFECTING THE AIRFIELD THIS
EVENING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IT NOW LOOKS MORE QUESTIONABLE WHETHER GALE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS...BUT THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THIS POSSIBILITY.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS AND
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE INNER
WATERS SOUTH OF POINT MUGU. SEAS WILL BE QUITE CHOPPY AND STEEP
ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 242129
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SANTA ANA
WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON SUNDAY THEN WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND PATTERN CONTINUES
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT FOR VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES WED-FRI. ADVISORIES CURRENTLY COVER JUST THE NW
WIND EVENT BUT MAY NEED EXTENDING BEYOND LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS, THOUGH THE SANTA ANA EVENT IS A MARGINAL ADVISORY
AT THIS POINT AND HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND AT THIS TIME. ALSO, THE
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING MAY BRIEFLY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE
SANTA MONICAS BEFORE THE SWITCH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT THE MAIN WARMUP IS EXPECTED
WED WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY TAKES
HOLD. BY THU WE SHOULD SEE A NUMBER OF VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOME
INTERIOR COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. AS
HAS BEEN MENTIONED HIGH TEMP RECORDS ARE CLOSE TO 100 IN SOME PLACES
SO WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE RECORDS FALL FRIDAY DESPITE LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORECAST HIGHS. OFFSHORE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY, THOUGH WEAKER THAN WED/THU. THU WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONGEST COASTAL WINDS AS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PEAK AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...MODEL AGREEMENT GOES SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH EITHER WAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COOLING TREND BEGINNING
SATURDAY. MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN LATE FRIDAY
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLING MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED ON SATURDAY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. THE EC ALSO SHOWS A FASTER
REBOUND TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN THE RATHER STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS. MINIMAL
IMPACTS THOUGH AS IT`S A DRY PATTERN EITHER WAY, JUST A QUESTION ON
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE. DRY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A BENIGN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

AT 1701Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1000 FEET WITH AN
INVERSION TOP AT 4200 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH
FLOW. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME. THE MOST
VULNERABLE AREAS FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INCLUDE KSBA AND THE LOS
ANGELES VALLEY TAFS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TAFS IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS AFFECTING THE AIRFIELD THIS
EVENING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IT NOW LOOKS MORE QUESTIONABLE WHETHER GALE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS...BUT THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THIS POSSIBILITY.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS AND
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE INNER
WATERS SOUTH OF POINT MUGU. SEAS WILL BE QUITE CHOPPY AND STEEP
ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 242016
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
115 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SANTA ANA
WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON SUNDAY THEN WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND PATTERN CONTINUES
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT FOR VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES WED-FRI. ADVISORIES CURRENTLY COVER JUST THE NW
WIND EVENT BUT MAY NEED EXTENDING BEYOND LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS, THOUGH THE SANTA ANA EVENT IS A MARGINAL ADVISORY
AT THIS POINT AND HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND AT THIS TIME. ALSO, THE
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING MAY BRIEFLY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE
SANTA MONICAS BEFORE THE SWITCH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT THE MAIN WARMUP IS EXPECTED
WED WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY TAKES
HOLD. BY THU WE SHOULD SEE A NUMBER OF VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOME
INTERIOR COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. AS
HAS BEEN MENTIONED HIGH TEMP RECORDS ARE CLOSE TO 100 IN SOME PLACES
SO WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE RECORDS FALL FRIDAY DESPITE LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORECAST HIGHS. OFFSHORE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY, THOUGH WEAKER THAN WED/THU. THU WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONGEST COASTAL WINDS AS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PEAK AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...MODEL AGREEMENT GOES SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH EITHER WAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COOLING TREND BEGINNING
SATURDAY. MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN LATE FRIDAY
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLING MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED ON SATURDAY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. THE EC ALSO SHOWS A FASTER
REBOUND TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN THE RATHER STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS. MINIMAL
IMPACTS THOUGH AS IT`S A DRY PATTERN EITHER WAY, JUST A QUESTION ON
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE. DRY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A BENIGN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

AT 1701Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1000 FEET WITH AN
INVERSION TOP AT 4200 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH
FLOW. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME. THE MOST
VULNERABLE AREAS FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INCLUDE KSBA AND THE LOS
ANGELES VALLEY TAFS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TAFS IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS AFFECTING THE AIRFIELD THIS
EVENING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GALES MIGHT CONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO WED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTER WATERS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS AND
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE INNER
WATERS SOUTH OF POINT MUGU. SEAS WILL BE QUITE CHOPPY AND STEEP
ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 242016
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
115 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SANTA ANA
WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON SUNDAY THEN WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND PATTERN CONTINUES
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT FOR VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES WED-FRI. ADVISORIES CURRENTLY COVER JUST THE NW
WIND EVENT BUT MAY NEED EXTENDING BEYOND LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS, THOUGH THE SANTA ANA EVENT IS A MARGINAL ADVISORY
AT THIS POINT AND HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND AT THIS TIME. ALSO, THE
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING MAY BRIEFLY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE
SANTA MONICAS BEFORE THE SWITCH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT THE MAIN WARMUP IS EXPECTED
WED WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY TAKES
HOLD. BY THU WE SHOULD SEE A NUMBER OF VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOME
INTERIOR COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. AS
HAS BEEN MENTIONED HIGH TEMP RECORDS ARE CLOSE TO 100 IN SOME PLACES
SO WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE RECORDS FALL FRIDAY DESPITE LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORECAST HIGHS. OFFSHORE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY, THOUGH WEAKER THAN WED/THU. THU WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONGEST COASTAL WINDS AS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PEAK AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...MODEL AGREEMENT GOES SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH EITHER WAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COOLING TREND BEGINNING
SATURDAY. MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN LATE FRIDAY
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLING MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED ON SATURDAY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. THE EC ALSO SHOWS A FASTER
REBOUND TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN THE RATHER STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS. MINIMAL
IMPACTS THOUGH AS IT`S A DRY PATTERN EITHER WAY, JUST A QUESTION ON
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE. DRY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A BENIGN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

AT 1701Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1000 FEET WITH AN
INVERSION TOP AT 4200 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH
FLOW. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME. THE MOST
VULNERABLE AREAS FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INCLUDE KSBA AND THE LOS
ANGELES VALLEY TAFS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TAFS IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS AFFECTING THE AIRFIELD THIS
EVENING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GALES MIGHT CONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO WED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTER WATERS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS AND
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE INNER
WATERS SOUTH OF POINT MUGU. SEAS WILL BE QUITE CHOPPY AND STEEP
ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 242016
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
115 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SANTA ANA
WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON SUNDAY THEN WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND PATTERN CONTINUES
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT FOR VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES WED-FRI. ADVISORIES CURRENTLY COVER JUST THE NW
WIND EVENT BUT MAY NEED EXTENDING BEYOND LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS, THOUGH THE SANTA ANA EVENT IS A MARGINAL ADVISORY
AT THIS POINT AND HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND AT THIS TIME. ALSO, THE
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING MAY BRIEFLY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE
SANTA MONICAS BEFORE THE SWITCH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT THE MAIN WARMUP IS EXPECTED
WED WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY TAKES
HOLD. BY THU WE SHOULD SEE A NUMBER OF VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOME
INTERIOR COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. AS
HAS BEEN MENTIONED HIGH TEMP RECORDS ARE CLOSE TO 100 IN SOME PLACES
SO WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE RECORDS FALL FRIDAY DESPITE LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORECAST HIGHS. OFFSHORE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY, THOUGH WEAKER THAN WED/THU. THU WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONGEST COASTAL WINDS AS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PEAK AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...MODEL AGREEMENT GOES SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH EITHER WAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COOLING TREND BEGINNING
SATURDAY. MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN LATE FRIDAY
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLING MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED ON SATURDAY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. THE EC ALSO SHOWS A FASTER
REBOUND TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN THE RATHER STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS. MINIMAL
IMPACTS THOUGH AS IT`S A DRY PATTERN EITHER WAY, JUST A QUESTION ON
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE. DRY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A BENIGN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

AT 1701Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1000 FEET WITH AN
INVERSION TOP AT 4200 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH
FLOW. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME. THE MOST
VULNERABLE AREAS FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INCLUDE KSBA AND THE LOS
ANGELES VALLEY TAFS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TAFS IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS AFFECTING THE AIRFIELD THIS
EVENING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GALES MIGHT CONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO WED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTER WATERS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS AND
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE INNER
WATERS SOUTH OF POINT MUGU. SEAS WILL BE QUITE CHOPPY AND STEEP
ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 241815
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1110 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SANTA ANA
WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON SUNDAY THEN WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...NOT SEEING ANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT
NORTHWEST WIND EVENT TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO A LOW GRADE
SANTA ANA EVENT WED-FRI. WIND ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD, THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SFV AND
SM MTNS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SANTA ANA KICKS IN LATER ON. FOR THE
SANTA ANA WINDS, WED MAY BE THE STRONGEST DAY FOR THE MTNS BUT THU
LOOKS BETTER FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS AS THE GRADIENTS PEAK THEN.

BASIN PROFILERS AND AREA SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWING A COUPLE DEGREES OF
WARMING IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND THAT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A SIMILAR
WARMING TREND AT THE SURFACE TODAY. A MORE IMPRESSIVE JUMP WED ON
THE ORDER OF 5-10 DEGREES, THEN ANOTHER 4-8 DEGREES OF WARMING THU
PUTTING HIGHS INTO THE LOW AND EVEN MID 90S. RECORDS ARE SUPER HIGH
THU WITH SOME PLACES OVER 100 AND MOST OTHER AREAS IN THE MID TO
HIGH 90S SO IT WILL BE A STRETCH TO REACH THOSE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE
RECORDS FOR THE 27TH ARE A FAIR AMOUNT LOWER THAN THURSDAY AND SOME
RECORDS WILL FALL.

ALL MDLS DISAGREE ON THE SATURDAY FORECAST THE EC WANTS TO BRING A
TROF INTO THE AREA THE GFS SEES CONTINUED RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE CANADIAN HAS A WEAKER TROF A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST OF
THE EC SOLN. FAVORED THE TROFFIER SOLN A LITTLE AND BROUGHT 5 OR SO
DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE AREA BUT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT TEMP WILL
BE CLOSE TO FRIDAYS VERY WARM READINGS.

MDL CONFUSION PERSISTS ON SUNDAY BUT THE MDLS FLIP FLOP WITH THE GFS
MOVING A TROF OVER THE AREA AND THE CAN AND EC MDLS BRINGING A RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. FORECAST CONTINUES COOLER MOSTLY TO AGREE WITH THE
SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT HAVE TO CALL MYSELF OUT ON LACK OF
CONSISTENCY HERE SINCE IF EC/CAN WAS USED FOR SAT FCST SHOULD HAVE
PROBABLY USED THEIR WARMER TEMP FCST FOR SUNDAY.

ALL MDLS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THIS SHOULD KICK OFF A WARMING TREND. STILL GIVEN ALL OF
THE DISCREPANCY IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SOMETHING ELSE ACTUALLY HAPPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

AT 1701Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1000 FEET WITH AN
INVERSION TOP AT 4200 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH
FLOW. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME. THE MOST
VULNERABLE AREAS FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INCLUDE KSBA AND THE LOS
ANGELES VALLEY TAFS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TAFS IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS AFFECTING THE AIRFIELD THIS
EVENING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.


&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GALES MIGHT CONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO WED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTER WATERS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS AND
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE INNER
WATERS SOUTH OF POINT MUGU. SEAS WILL BE QUITE CHOPPY AND STEEP
ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 241815
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1110 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SANTA ANA
WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON SUNDAY THEN WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...NOT SEEING ANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT
NORTHWEST WIND EVENT TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO A LOW GRADE
SANTA ANA EVENT WED-FRI. WIND ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD, THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SFV AND
SM MTNS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SANTA ANA KICKS IN LATER ON. FOR THE
SANTA ANA WINDS, WED MAY BE THE STRONGEST DAY FOR THE MTNS BUT THU
LOOKS BETTER FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS AS THE GRADIENTS PEAK THEN.

BASIN PROFILERS AND AREA SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWING A COUPLE DEGREES OF
WARMING IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND THAT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A SIMILAR
WARMING TREND AT THE SURFACE TODAY. A MORE IMPRESSIVE JUMP WED ON
THE ORDER OF 5-10 DEGREES, THEN ANOTHER 4-8 DEGREES OF WARMING THU
PUTTING HIGHS INTO THE LOW AND EVEN MID 90S. RECORDS ARE SUPER HIGH
THU WITH SOME PLACES OVER 100 AND MOST OTHER AREAS IN THE MID TO
HIGH 90S SO IT WILL BE A STRETCH TO REACH THOSE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE
RECORDS FOR THE 27TH ARE A FAIR AMOUNT LOWER THAN THURSDAY AND SOME
RECORDS WILL FALL.

ALL MDLS DISAGREE ON THE SATURDAY FORECAST THE EC WANTS TO BRING A
TROF INTO THE AREA THE GFS SEES CONTINUED RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE CANADIAN HAS A WEAKER TROF A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST OF
THE EC SOLN. FAVORED THE TROFFIER SOLN A LITTLE AND BROUGHT 5 OR SO
DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE AREA BUT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT TEMP WILL
BE CLOSE TO FRIDAYS VERY WARM READINGS.

MDL CONFUSION PERSISTS ON SUNDAY BUT THE MDLS FLIP FLOP WITH THE GFS
MOVING A TROF OVER THE AREA AND THE CAN AND EC MDLS BRINGING A RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. FORECAST CONTINUES COOLER MOSTLY TO AGREE WITH THE
SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT HAVE TO CALL MYSELF OUT ON LACK OF
CONSISTENCY HERE SINCE IF EC/CAN WAS USED FOR SAT FCST SHOULD HAVE
PROBABLY USED THEIR WARMER TEMP FCST FOR SUNDAY.

ALL MDLS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THIS SHOULD KICK OFF A WARMING TREND. STILL GIVEN ALL OF
THE DISCREPANCY IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SOMETHING ELSE ACTUALLY HAPPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

AT 1701Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1000 FEET WITH AN
INVERSION TOP AT 4200 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH
FLOW. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME. THE MOST
VULNERABLE AREAS FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INCLUDE KSBA AND THE LOS
ANGELES VALLEY TAFS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TAFS IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS AFFECTING THE AIRFIELD THIS
EVENING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.


&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GALES MIGHT CONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO WED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTER WATERS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS AND
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE INNER
WATERS SOUTH OF POINT MUGU. SEAS WILL BE QUITE CHOPPY AND STEEP
ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 241604
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SANTA ANA
WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON SUNDAY THEN WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...NOT SEEING ANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT
NORTHWEST WIND EVENT TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO A LOW GRADE
SANTA ANA EVENT WED-FRI. WIND ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD, THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SFV AND
SM MTNS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SANTA ANA KICKS IN LATER ON. FOR THE
SANTA ANA WINDS, WED MAY BE THE STRONGEST DAY FOR THE MTNS BUT THU
LOOKS BETTER FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS AS THE GRADIENTS PEAK THEN.

BASIN PROFILERS AND AREA SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWING A COUPLE DEGREES OF
WARMING IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND THAT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A SIMILAR
WARMING TREND AT THE SURFACE TODAY. A MORE IMPRESSIVE JUMP WED ON
THE ORDER OF 5-10 DEGREES, THEN ANOTHER 4-8 DEGREES OF WARMING THU
PUTTING HIGHS INTO THE LOW AND EVEN MID 90S. RECORDS ARE SUPER HIGH
THU WITH SOME PLACES OVER 100 AND MOST OTHER AREAS IN THE MID TO
HIGH 90S SO IT WILL BE A STRETCH TO REACH THOSE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE
RECORDS FOR THE 27TH ARE A FAIR AMOUNT LOWER THAN THURSDAY AND SOME
RECORDS WILL FALL.

ALL MDLS DISAGREE ON THE SATURDAY FORECAST THE EC WANTS TO BRING A
TROF INTO THE AREA THE GFS SEES CONTINUED RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE CANADIAN HAS A WEAKER TROF A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST OF
THE EC SOLN. FAVORED THE TROFFIER SOLN A LITTLE AND BROUGHT 5 OR SO
DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE AREA BUT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT TEMP WILL
BE CLOSE TO FRIDAYS VERY WARM READINGS.

MDL CONFUSION PERSISTS ON SUNDAY BUT THE MDLS FLIP FLOP WITH THE GFS
MOVING A TROF OVER THE AREA AND THE CAN AND EC MDLS BRINGING A RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. FORECAST CONTINUES COOLER MOSTLY TO AGREE WITH THE
SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT HAVE TO CALL MYSELF OUT ON LACK OF
CONSISTENCY HERE SINCE IF EC/CAN WAS USED FOR SAT FCST SHOULD HAVE
PROBABLY USED THEIR WARMER TEMP FCST FOR SUNDAY.

ALL MDLS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THIS SHOULD KICK OFF A WARMING TREND. STILL GIVEN ALL OF
THE DISCREPANCY IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SOMETHING ELSE ACTUALLY HAPPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
24/1145Z

AT KLAX AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS ON THE NRN SLOPES AND
IN FAR INTERIOR SLO AND SBA COUNTIES THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN
TONIGHT...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. GUSTY W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL
VSBYS TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN BLOWING DUST AND SAND.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR...THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY
AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY VLYS AND SANTA MONICA MTNS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF AT TIMES.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTHERLY CROSS WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KT...AND A 10 PERCENT CHC OF NORTHERLY CROSS WINDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 10Z WEDNESDAY.

KBUR....VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE BETWEEN 15Z THIS MORNING AND 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 AM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GALES SHOULD CONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO WED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTER WATERS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS AND
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT
MUGU. SEAS WILL BE QUITE CHOPPY AND STEEP ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...24/300 AM.

SEAS NEAR 40 FEET GENERATED BY A STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE LAST WEEK WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 4 FEET WITH
A PERIOD BETWEEN 18 AND 20 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHEN THIS SWELL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SURF WILL BUILD AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
BECOME STRONG ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 241604
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SANTA ANA
WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON SUNDAY THEN WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...NOT SEEING ANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT
NORTHWEST WIND EVENT TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO A LOW GRADE
SANTA ANA EVENT WED-FRI. WIND ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD, THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SFV AND
SM MTNS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SANTA ANA KICKS IN LATER ON. FOR THE
SANTA ANA WINDS, WED MAY BE THE STRONGEST DAY FOR THE MTNS BUT THU
LOOKS BETTER FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS AS THE GRADIENTS PEAK THEN.

BASIN PROFILERS AND AREA SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWING A COUPLE DEGREES OF
WARMING IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND THAT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A SIMILAR
WARMING TREND AT THE SURFACE TODAY. A MORE IMPRESSIVE JUMP WED ON
THE ORDER OF 5-10 DEGREES, THEN ANOTHER 4-8 DEGREES OF WARMING THU
PUTTING HIGHS INTO THE LOW AND EVEN MID 90S. RECORDS ARE SUPER HIGH
THU WITH SOME PLACES OVER 100 AND MOST OTHER AREAS IN THE MID TO
HIGH 90S SO IT WILL BE A STRETCH TO REACH THOSE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE
RECORDS FOR THE 27TH ARE A FAIR AMOUNT LOWER THAN THURSDAY AND SOME
RECORDS WILL FALL.

ALL MDLS DISAGREE ON THE SATURDAY FORECAST THE EC WANTS TO BRING A
TROF INTO THE AREA THE GFS SEES CONTINUED RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE CANADIAN HAS A WEAKER TROF A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST OF
THE EC SOLN. FAVORED THE TROFFIER SOLN A LITTLE AND BROUGHT 5 OR SO
DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE AREA BUT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT TEMP WILL
BE CLOSE TO FRIDAYS VERY WARM READINGS.

MDL CONFUSION PERSISTS ON SUNDAY BUT THE MDLS FLIP FLOP WITH THE GFS
MOVING A TROF OVER THE AREA AND THE CAN AND EC MDLS BRINGING A RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. FORECAST CONTINUES COOLER MOSTLY TO AGREE WITH THE
SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT HAVE TO CALL MYSELF OUT ON LACK OF
CONSISTENCY HERE SINCE IF EC/CAN WAS USED FOR SAT FCST SHOULD HAVE
PROBABLY USED THEIR WARMER TEMP FCST FOR SUNDAY.

ALL MDLS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THIS SHOULD KICK OFF A WARMING TREND. STILL GIVEN ALL OF
THE DISCREPANCY IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SOMETHING ELSE ACTUALLY HAPPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
24/1145Z

AT KLAX AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS ON THE NRN SLOPES AND
IN FAR INTERIOR SLO AND SBA COUNTIES THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN
TONIGHT...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. GUSTY W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL
VSBYS TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN BLOWING DUST AND SAND.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR...THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY
AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY VLYS AND SANTA MONICA MTNS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF AT TIMES.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTHERLY CROSS WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KT...AND A 10 PERCENT CHC OF NORTHERLY CROSS WINDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 10Z WEDNESDAY.

KBUR....VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE BETWEEN 15Z THIS MORNING AND 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 AM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GALES SHOULD CONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO WED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTER WATERS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS AND
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT
MUGU. SEAS WILL BE QUITE CHOPPY AND STEEP ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...24/300 AM.

SEAS NEAR 40 FEET GENERATED BY A STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE LAST WEEK WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 4 FEET WITH
A PERIOD BETWEEN 18 AND 20 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHEN THIS SWELL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SURF WILL BUILD AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
BECOME STRONG ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 241604
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SANTA ANA
WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON SUNDAY THEN WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...NOT SEEING ANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT
NORTHWEST WIND EVENT TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO A LOW GRADE
SANTA ANA EVENT WED-FRI. WIND ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD, THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SFV AND
SM MTNS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SANTA ANA KICKS IN LATER ON. FOR THE
SANTA ANA WINDS, WED MAY BE THE STRONGEST DAY FOR THE MTNS BUT THU
LOOKS BETTER FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS AS THE GRADIENTS PEAK THEN.

BASIN PROFILERS AND AREA SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWING A COUPLE DEGREES OF
WARMING IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND THAT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A SIMILAR
WARMING TREND AT THE SURFACE TODAY. A MORE IMPRESSIVE JUMP WED ON
THE ORDER OF 5-10 DEGREES, THEN ANOTHER 4-8 DEGREES OF WARMING THU
PUTTING HIGHS INTO THE LOW AND EVEN MID 90S. RECORDS ARE SUPER HIGH
THU WITH SOME PLACES OVER 100 AND MOST OTHER AREAS IN THE MID TO
HIGH 90S SO IT WILL BE A STRETCH TO REACH THOSE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE
RECORDS FOR THE 27TH ARE A FAIR AMOUNT LOWER THAN THURSDAY AND SOME
RECORDS WILL FALL.

ALL MDLS DISAGREE ON THE SATURDAY FORECAST THE EC WANTS TO BRING A
TROF INTO THE AREA THE GFS SEES CONTINUED RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE CANADIAN HAS A WEAKER TROF A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST OF
THE EC SOLN. FAVORED THE TROFFIER SOLN A LITTLE AND BROUGHT 5 OR SO
DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE AREA BUT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT TEMP WILL
BE CLOSE TO FRIDAYS VERY WARM READINGS.

MDL CONFUSION PERSISTS ON SUNDAY BUT THE MDLS FLIP FLOP WITH THE GFS
MOVING A TROF OVER THE AREA AND THE CAN AND EC MDLS BRINGING A RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. FORECAST CONTINUES COOLER MOSTLY TO AGREE WITH THE
SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT HAVE TO CALL MYSELF OUT ON LACK OF
CONSISTENCY HERE SINCE IF EC/CAN WAS USED FOR SAT FCST SHOULD HAVE
PROBABLY USED THEIR WARMER TEMP FCST FOR SUNDAY.

ALL MDLS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THIS SHOULD KICK OFF A WARMING TREND. STILL GIVEN ALL OF
THE DISCREPANCY IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SOMETHING ELSE ACTUALLY HAPPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
24/1145Z

AT KLAX AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS ON THE NRN SLOPES AND
IN FAR INTERIOR SLO AND SBA COUNTIES THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN
TONIGHT...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. GUSTY W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL
VSBYS TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN BLOWING DUST AND SAND.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR...THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY
AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY VLYS AND SANTA MONICA MTNS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF AT TIMES.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTHERLY CROSS WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KT...AND A 10 PERCENT CHC OF NORTHERLY CROSS WINDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 10Z WEDNESDAY.

KBUR....VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE BETWEEN 15Z THIS MORNING AND 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 AM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GALES SHOULD CONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO WED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTER WATERS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS AND
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT
MUGU. SEAS WILL BE QUITE CHOPPY AND STEEP ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...24/300 AM.

SEAS NEAR 40 FEET GENERATED BY A STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE LAST WEEK WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 4 FEET WITH
A PERIOD BETWEEN 18 AND 20 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHEN THIS SWELL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SURF WILL BUILD AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
BECOME STRONG ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 241604
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SANTA ANA
WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON SUNDAY THEN WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...NOT SEEING ANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT
NORTHWEST WIND EVENT TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO A LOW GRADE
SANTA ANA EVENT WED-FRI. WIND ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD, THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SFV AND
SM MTNS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SANTA ANA KICKS IN LATER ON. FOR THE
SANTA ANA WINDS, WED MAY BE THE STRONGEST DAY FOR THE MTNS BUT THU
LOOKS BETTER FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS AS THE GRADIENTS PEAK THEN.

BASIN PROFILERS AND AREA SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWING A COUPLE DEGREES OF
WARMING IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND THAT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A SIMILAR
WARMING TREND AT THE SURFACE TODAY. A MORE IMPRESSIVE JUMP WED ON
THE ORDER OF 5-10 DEGREES, THEN ANOTHER 4-8 DEGREES OF WARMING THU
PUTTING HIGHS INTO THE LOW AND EVEN MID 90S. RECORDS ARE SUPER HIGH
THU WITH SOME PLACES OVER 100 AND MOST OTHER AREAS IN THE MID TO
HIGH 90S SO IT WILL BE A STRETCH TO REACH THOSE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE
RECORDS FOR THE 27TH ARE A FAIR AMOUNT LOWER THAN THURSDAY AND SOME
RECORDS WILL FALL.

ALL MDLS DISAGREE ON THE SATURDAY FORECAST THE EC WANTS TO BRING A
TROF INTO THE AREA THE GFS SEES CONTINUED RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE CANADIAN HAS A WEAKER TROF A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST OF
THE EC SOLN. FAVORED THE TROFFIER SOLN A LITTLE AND BROUGHT 5 OR SO
DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE AREA BUT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT TEMP WILL
BE CLOSE TO FRIDAYS VERY WARM READINGS.

MDL CONFUSION PERSISTS ON SUNDAY BUT THE MDLS FLIP FLOP WITH THE GFS
MOVING A TROF OVER THE AREA AND THE CAN AND EC MDLS BRINGING A RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. FORECAST CONTINUES COOLER MOSTLY TO AGREE WITH THE
SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT HAVE TO CALL MYSELF OUT ON LACK OF
CONSISTENCY HERE SINCE IF EC/CAN WAS USED FOR SAT FCST SHOULD HAVE
PROBABLY USED THEIR WARMER TEMP FCST FOR SUNDAY.

ALL MDLS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THIS SHOULD KICK OFF A WARMING TREND. STILL GIVEN ALL OF
THE DISCREPANCY IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SOMETHING ELSE ACTUALLY HAPPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
24/1145Z

AT KLAX AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS ON THE NRN SLOPES AND
IN FAR INTERIOR SLO AND SBA COUNTIES THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN
TONIGHT...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. GUSTY W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL
VSBYS TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN BLOWING DUST AND SAND.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR...THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY
AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY VLYS AND SANTA MONICA MTNS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF AT TIMES.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTHERLY CROSS WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KT...AND A 10 PERCENT CHC OF NORTHERLY CROSS WINDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 10Z WEDNESDAY.

KBUR....VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE BETWEEN 15Z THIS MORNING AND 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 AM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GALES SHOULD CONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO WED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTER WATERS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS AND
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT
MUGU. SEAS WILL BE QUITE CHOPPY AND STEEP ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...24/300 AM.

SEAS NEAR 40 FEET GENERATED BY A STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE LAST WEEK WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 4 FEET WITH
A PERIOD BETWEEN 18 AND 20 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHEN THIS SWELL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SURF WILL BUILD AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
BECOME STRONG ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 241155 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A RETURN
TO SANTA ANA WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A
TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
A SPATE OF WINDY WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODERATE WEST
FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A RIDGING PATTERN BY
THURSDAY. A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE WEST FLOW WILL BRING ENOUGH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO SLO AND SBA COUNTIES TO TURN THE SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY. AT THE SFC MDT ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL TRANSITION
TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN TO THE NE BY THURSDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS FROM THE NW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS AND
DOWN INTO THE SBA SOUTH COAST BLO THE PASSES. IT WILL ALSO BE A
BREEZY DAY IN THE AV WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE LULL IN THE MTN WINDS
LATER TODAY AS THE GRADIENT TURN TO THE NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER BURST OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE MTNS THIS EVENING
ESP THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR. THE SANTA CLARITA VLY AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS AS WELL. AFTER
ANOTHER AFTERNOON LULL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE BUT PERHAPS NOT TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

TODAYS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THEN SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON WED AND THEN A BIG 8 TO 12
DEGREE JUMP ON THURSDAY. RECORDS ARE QUITE HIGH ON THURSDAY SO EVEN
THOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH A SMATTERING OF 90 DEGREES
READINGS IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT ANY RECORDS WILL FALL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE
RECORDS FOR THE 27TH ARE A FAIR AMOUNT LOWER THAN THURSDAY AND SOME
RECORDS WILL FALL.

ALL MDLS DISAGREE ON THE SATURDAY FORECAST THE EC WANTS TO BRING A
TROF INTO THE AREA THE GFS SEES CONTINUED RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE CANADIAN HAS A WEAKER TROF A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST OF
THE EC SOLN. FAVORED THE TROFFIER SOLN A LITTLE AND BROUGHT 5 OR SO
DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE AREA BUT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT TEMP WILL
BE CLOSE TO FRIDAYS VERY WARM READINGS.

MDL CONFUSION PERSISTS ON SUNDAY BUT THE MDLS FLIP FLOP WITH THE GFS
MOVING A TROF OVER THE AREA AND THE CAN AND EC MDLS BRINGING A RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. FORECAST CONTINUES COOLER MOSTLY TO AGREE WITH THE
SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT HAVE TO CALL MYSELF OUT ON LACK OF
CONSISTENCY HERE SINCE IF EC/CAN WAS USED FOR SAT FCST SHOULD HAVE
PROBABLY USED THEIR WARMER TEMP FCST FOR SUNDAY.

ALL MDLS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THIS SHOULD KICK OFF A WARMING TREND. STILL GIVEN ALL OF
THE DISCREPANCY IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SOMETHING ELSE ACTUALLY HAPPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
24/1145Z

AT KLAX AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS ON THE NRN SLOPES AND
IN FAR INTERIOR SLO AND SBA COUNTIES THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN
TONIGHT...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. GUSTY W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL
VSBYS TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN BLOWING DUST AND SAND.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR...THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY
AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY VLYS AND SANTA MONICA MTNS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF AT TIMES.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTHERLY CROSS WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KT...AND A 10 PERCENT CHC OF NORTHERLY CROSS WINDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 10Z WEDNESDAY.

KBUR....VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE BETWEEN 15Z THIS MORNING AND 06Z TONIGHT.

&&


.MARINE...24/300 AM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GALES SHOULD CONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO WED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTER WATERS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS AND
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT
MUGU. SEAS WILL BE QUITE CHOPPY AND STEEP ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...24/300 AM.

SEAS NEAR 40 FEET GENERATED BY A STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE LAST WEEK WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 4 FEET WITH
A PERIOD BETWEEN 18 AND 20 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHEN THIS SWELL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SURF WILL BUILD AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
BECOME STRONG ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 241155 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A RETURN
TO SANTA ANA WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A
TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
A SPATE OF WINDY WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODERATE WEST
FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A RIDGING PATTERN BY
THURSDAY. A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE WEST FLOW WILL BRING ENOUGH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO SLO AND SBA COUNTIES TO TURN THE SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY. AT THE SFC MDT ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL TRANSITION
TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN TO THE NE BY THURSDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS FROM THE NW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS AND
DOWN INTO THE SBA SOUTH COAST BLO THE PASSES. IT WILL ALSO BE A
BREEZY DAY IN THE AV WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE LULL IN THE MTN WINDS
LATER TODAY AS THE GRADIENT TURN TO THE NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER BURST OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE MTNS THIS EVENING
ESP THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR. THE SANTA CLARITA VLY AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS AS WELL. AFTER
ANOTHER AFTERNOON LULL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE BUT PERHAPS NOT TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

TODAYS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THEN SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON WED AND THEN A BIG 8 TO 12
DEGREE JUMP ON THURSDAY. RECORDS ARE QUITE HIGH ON THURSDAY SO EVEN
THOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH A SMATTERING OF 90 DEGREES
READINGS IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT ANY RECORDS WILL FALL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE
RECORDS FOR THE 27TH ARE A FAIR AMOUNT LOWER THAN THURSDAY AND SOME
RECORDS WILL FALL.

ALL MDLS DISAGREE ON THE SATURDAY FORECAST THE EC WANTS TO BRING A
TROF INTO THE AREA THE GFS SEES CONTINUED RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE CANADIAN HAS A WEAKER TROF A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST OF
THE EC SOLN. FAVORED THE TROFFIER SOLN A LITTLE AND BROUGHT 5 OR SO
DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE AREA BUT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT TEMP WILL
BE CLOSE TO FRIDAYS VERY WARM READINGS.

MDL CONFUSION PERSISTS ON SUNDAY BUT THE MDLS FLIP FLOP WITH THE GFS
MOVING A TROF OVER THE AREA AND THE CAN AND EC MDLS BRINGING A RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. FORECAST CONTINUES COOLER MOSTLY TO AGREE WITH THE
SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT HAVE TO CALL MYSELF OUT ON LACK OF
CONSISTENCY HERE SINCE IF EC/CAN WAS USED FOR SAT FCST SHOULD HAVE
PROBABLY USED THEIR WARMER TEMP FCST FOR SUNDAY.

ALL MDLS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THIS SHOULD KICK OFF A WARMING TREND. STILL GIVEN ALL OF
THE DISCREPANCY IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SOMETHING ELSE ACTUALLY HAPPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
24/1145Z

AT KLAX AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS ON THE NRN SLOPES AND
IN FAR INTERIOR SLO AND SBA COUNTIES THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN
TONIGHT...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. GUSTY W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL
VSBYS TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN BLOWING DUST AND SAND.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR...THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY
AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY VLYS AND SANTA MONICA MTNS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF AT TIMES.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTHERLY CROSS WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KT...AND A 10 PERCENT CHC OF NORTHERLY CROSS WINDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 10Z WEDNESDAY.

KBUR....VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE BETWEEN 15Z THIS MORNING AND 06Z TONIGHT.

&&


.MARINE...24/300 AM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GALES SHOULD CONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO WED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTER WATERS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS AND
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT
MUGU. SEAS WILL BE QUITE CHOPPY AND STEEP ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...24/300 AM.

SEAS NEAR 40 FEET GENERATED BY A STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE LAST WEEK WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 4 FEET WITH
A PERIOD BETWEEN 18 AND 20 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHEN THIS SWELL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SURF WILL BUILD AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
BECOME STRONG ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 241155 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A RETURN
TO SANTA ANA WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A
TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
A SPATE OF WINDY WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODERATE WEST
FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A RIDGING PATTERN BY
THURSDAY. A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE WEST FLOW WILL BRING ENOUGH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO SLO AND SBA COUNTIES TO TURN THE SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY. AT THE SFC MDT ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL TRANSITION
TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN TO THE NE BY THURSDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS FROM THE NW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS AND
DOWN INTO THE SBA SOUTH COAST BLO THE PASSES. IT WILL ALSO BE A
BREEZY DAY IN THE AV WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE LULL IN THE MTN WINDS
LATER TODAY AS THE GRADIENT TURN TO THE NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER BURST OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE MTNS THIS EVENING
ESP THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR. THE SANTA CLARITA VLY AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS AS WELL. AFTER
ANOTHER AFTERNOON LULL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE BUT PERHAPS NOT TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

TODAYS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THEN SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON WED AND THEN A BIG 8 TO 12
DEGREE JUMP ON THURSDAY. RECORDS ARE QUITE HIGH ON THURSDAY SO EVEN
THOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH A SMATTERING OF 90 DEGREES
READINGS IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT ANY RECORDS WILL FALL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE
RECORDS FOR THE 27TH ARE A FAIR AMOUNT LOWER THAN THURSDAY AND SOME
RECORDS WILL FALL.

ALL MDLS DISAGREE ON THE SATURDAY FORECAST THE EC WANTS TO BRING A
TROF INTO THE AREA THE GFS SEES CONTINUED RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE CANADIAN HAS A WEAKER TROF A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST OF
THE EC SOLN. FAVORED THE TROFFIER SOLN A LITTLE AND BROUGHT 5 OR SO
DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE AREA BUT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT TEMP WILL
BE CLOSE TO FRIDAYS VERY WARM READINGS.

MDL CONFUSION PERSISTS ON SUNDAY BUT THE MDLS FLIP FLOP WITH THE GFS
MOVING A TROF OVER THE AREA AND THE CAN AND EC MDLS BRINGING A RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. FORECAST CONTINUES COOLER MOSTLY TO AGREE WITH THE
SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT HAVE TO CALL MYSELF OUT ON LACK OF
CONSISTENCY HERE SINCE IF EC/CAN WAS USED FOR SAT FCST SHOULD HAVE
PROBABLY USED THEIR WARMER TEMP FCST FOR SUNDAY.

ALL MDLS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THIS SHOULD KICK OFF A WARMING TREND. STILL GIVEN ALL OF
THE DISCREPANCY IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SOMETHING ELSE ACTUALLY HAPPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
24/1145Z

AT KLAX AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS ON THE NRN SLOPES AND
IN FAR INTERIOR SLO AND SBA COUNTIES THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN
TONIGHT...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. GUSTY W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL
VSBYS TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN BLOWING DUST AND SAND.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR...THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY
AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY VLYS AND SANTA MONICA MTNS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF AT TIMES.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTHERLY CROSS WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KT...AND A 10 PERCENT CHC OF NORTHERLY CROSS WINDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 10Z WEDNESDAY.

KBUR....VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE BETWEEN 15Z THIS MORNING AND 06Z TONIGHT.

&&


.MARINE...24/300 AM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GALES SHOULD CONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO WED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTER WATERS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS AND
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT
MUGU. SEAS WILL BE QUITE CHOPPY AND STEEP ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...24/300 AM.

SEAS NEAR 40 FEET GENERATED BY A STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE LAST WEEK WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 4 FEET WITH
A PERIOD BETWEEN 18 AND 20 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHEN THIS SWELL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SURF WILL BUILD AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
BECOME STRONG ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 241155 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A RETURN
TO SANTA ANA WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A
TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
A SPATE OF WINDY WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODERATE WEST
FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A RIDGING PATTERN BY
THURSDAY. A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE WEST FLOW WILL BRING ENOUGH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO SLO AND SBA COUNTIES TO TURN THE SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY. AT THE SFC MDT ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL TRANSITION
TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN TO THE NE BY THURSDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS FROM THE NW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS AND
DOWN INTO THE SBA SOUTH COAST BLO THE PASSES. IT WILL ALSO BE A
BREEZY DAY IN THE AV WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE LULL IN THE MTN WINDS
LATER TODAY AS THE GRADIENT TURN TO THE NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER BURST OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE MTNS THIS EVENING
ESP THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR. THE SANTA CLARITA VLY AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS AS WELL. AFTER
ANOTHER AFTERNOON LULL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE BUT PERHAPS NOT TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

TODAYS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THEN SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON WED AND THEN A BIG 8 TO 12
DEGREE JUMP ON THURSDAY. RECORDS ARE QUITE HIGH ON THURSDAY SO EVEN
THOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH A SMATTERING OF 90 DEGREES
READINGS IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT ANY RECORDS WILL FALL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE
RECORDS FOR THE 27TH ARE A FAIR AMOUNT LOWER THAN THURSDAY AND SOME
RECORDS WILL FALL.

ALL MDLS DISAGREE ON THE SATURDAY FORECAST THE EC WANTS TO BRING A
TROF INTO THE AREA THE GFS SEES CONTINUED RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE CANADIAN HAS A WEAKER TROF A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST OF
THE EC SOLN. FAVORED THE TROFFIER SOLN A LITTLE AND BROUGHT 5 OR SO
DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE AREA BUT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT TEMP WILL
BE CLOSE TO FRIDAYS VERY WARM READINGS.

MDL CONFUSION PERSISTS ON SUNDAY BUT THE MDLS FLIP FLOP WITH THE GFS
MOVING A TROF OVER THE AREA AND THE CAN AND EC MDLS BRINGING A RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. FORECAST CONTINUES COOLER MOSTLY TO AGREE WITH THE
SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT HAVE TO CALL MYSELF OUT ON LACK OF
CONSISTENCY HERE SINCE IF EC/CAN WAS USED FOR SAT FCST SHOULD HAVE
PROBABLY USED THEIR WARMER TEMP FCST FOR SUNDAY.

ALL MDLS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THIS SHOULD KICK OFF A WARMING TREND. STILL GIVEN ALL OF
THE DISCREPANCY IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SOMETHING ELSE ACTUALLY HAPPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
24/1145Z

AT KLAX AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS ON THE NRN SLOPES AND
IN FAR INTERIOR SLO AND SBA COUNTIES THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN
TONIGHT...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. GUSTY W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL
VSBYS TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN BLOWING DUST AND SAND.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR...THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY
AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY VLYS AND SANTA MONICA MTNS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF AT TIMES.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTHERLY CROSS WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KT...AND A 10 PERCENT CHC OF NORTHERLY CROSS WINDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 10Z WEDNESDAY.

KBUR....VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE BETWEEN 15Z THIS MORNING AND 06Z TONIGHT.

&&


.MARINE...24/300 AM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GALES SHOULD CONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT GALES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO WED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTER WATERS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS AND
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT
MUGU. SEAS WILL BE QUITE CHOPPY AND STEEP ACROSS ALL OF THE INNER
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...24/300 AM.

SEAS NEAR 40 FEET GENERATED BY A STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE LAST WEEK WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 4 FEET WITH
A PERIOD BETWEEN 18 AND 20 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHEN THIS SWELL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SURF WILL BUILD AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
BECOME STRONG ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 241021
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A RETURN
TO SANTA ANA WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A
TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
A SPATE OF WINDY WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODERATE WEST
FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A RIDGING PATTERN BY
THURSDAY. A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE WEST FLOW WILL BRING ENOUGH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO SLO AND SBA COUNTIES TO TURN THE SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY. AT THE SFC MDT ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL TRANSITION
TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN TO THE NE BY THURSDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS FROM THE NW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS AND
DOWN INTO THE SBA SOUTH COAST BLO THE PASSES. IT WILL ALSO BE A
BREEZY DAY IN THE AV WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE LULL IN THE MTN WINDS
LATER TODAY AS THE GRADIENT TURN TO THE NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER BURST OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE MTNS THIS EVENING
ESP THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR. THE SANTA CLARITA VLY AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS AS WELL. AFTER
ANOTHER AFTERNOON LULL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE BUT PERHAPS NOT TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

TODAYS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THEN SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON WED AND THEN A BIG 8 TO 12
DEGREE JUMP ON THURSDAY. RECORDS ARE QUITE HIGH ON THURSDAY SO EVEN
THOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH A SMATTERING OF 90 DEGREES
READINGS IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT ANY RECORDS WILL FALL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE
RECORDS FOR THE 27TH ARE A FAIR AMOUNT LOWER THAN THURSDAY AND SOME
RECORDS WILL FALL.

ALL MDLS DISAGREE ON THE SATURDAY FORECAST THE EC WANTS TO BRING A
TROF INTO THE AREA THE GFS SEES CONTINUED RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE CANADIAN HAS A WEAKER TROF A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST OF
THE EC SOLN. FAVORED THE TROFFIER SOLN A LITTLE AND BROUGHT 5 OR SO
DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE AREA BUT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT TEMP WILL
BE CLOSE TO FRIDAYS VERY WARM READINGS.

MDL CONFUSION PERSISTS ON SUNDAY BUT THE MDLS FLIP FLOP WITH THE GFS
MOVING A TROF OVER THE AREA AND THE CAN AND EC MDLS BRINGING A RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. FORECAST CONTINUES COOLER MOSTLY TO AGREE WITH THE
SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT HAVE TO CALL MYSELF OUT ON LACK OF
CONSISTENCY HERE SINCE IF EC/CAN WAS USED FOR SAT FCST SHOULD HAVE
PROBABLY USED THEIR WARMER TEMP FCST FOR SUNDAY.

ALL MDLS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THIS SHOULD KICK OFF A WARMING TREND. STILL GIVEN ALL OF
THE DISCREPANCY IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SOMETHING ELSE ACTUALLY HAPPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...

24/0540Z

AT KLAX AT 0505Z...THERE WAS A VERY WEAK 1000 FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER
WITH AN INVERSION TOP OF 1200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT XCP FOR A 30 PERCENT
CHC OF MVFR CIGS AT KLGB. NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PEAK TUESDAY EVENING.

KLAX...VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
XWNDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KT AND A 10 PERCENT CHC OF XWNDS 20 AND 30
KTS BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 12Z AND 20Z AND AGAIN
BETWEEN 01Z AND 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 PM.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...BUT BELIEVE THAT MARGINAL GALES ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME TUESDAY MORNING BUT
INCREASE MORE STRONGLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY. A MODERATE
SIZE WEST-NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCALLY DRIVEN WIND SEAS...WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 12
FEET BY WEDNESDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE NEAR-SHORE
WATERS AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL THAT ORIGINATED FROM A COMPLEX STORM
SYSTEM CENTERED 40S WITH A FETCH ORIENTED 190-220 DEGREES RELATIVE
TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PEAK SATURDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...23/900 PM.

SEAS NEAR 40 FEET GENERATED BY A STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE LAST WEEK WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 4 FEET WITH
A PERIOD BETWEEN 18 AND 20 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHEN THIS SWELL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SURF WILL BUILD AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
BECOME STRONG ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 241021
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A RETURN
TO SANTA ANA WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A
TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
A SPATE OF WINDY WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODERATE WEST
FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A RIDGING PATTERN BY
THURSDAY. A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE WEST FLOW WILL BRING ENOUGH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO SLO AND SBA COUNTIES TO TURN THE SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY. AT THE SFC MDT ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL TRANSITION
TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN TO THE NE BY THURSDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS FROM THE NW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS AND
DOWN INTO THE SBA SOUTH COAST BLO THE PASSES. IT WILL ALSO BE A
BREEZY DAY IN THE AV WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE LULL IN THE MTN WINDS
LATER TODAY AS THE GRADIENT TURN TO THE NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER BURST OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE MTNS THIS EVENING
ESP THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR. THE SANTA CLARITA VLY AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS AS WELL. AFTER
ANOTHER AFTERNOON LULL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE BUT PERHAPS NOT TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

TODAYS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THEN SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON WED AND THEN A BIG 8 TO 12
DEGREE JUMP ON THURSDAY. RECORDS ARE QUITE HIGH ON THURSDAY SO EVEN
THOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH A SMATTERING OF 90 DEGREES
READINGS IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT ANY RECORDS WILL FALL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE
RECORDS FOR THE 27TH ARE A FAIR AMOUNT LOWER THAN THURSDAY AND SOME
RECORDS WILL FALL.

ALL MDLS DISAGREE ON THE SATURDAY FORECAST THE EC WANTS TO BRING A
TROF INTO THE AREA THE GFS SEES CONTINUED RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE CANADIAN HAS A WEAKER TROF A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST OF
THE EC SOLN. FAVORED THE TROFFIER SOLN A LITTLE AND BROUGHT 5 OR SO
DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE AREA BUT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT TEMP WILL
BE CLOSE TO FRIDAYS VERY WARM READINGS.

MDL CONFUSION PERSISTS ON SUNDAY BUT THE MDLS FLIP FLOP WITH THE GFS
MOVING A TROF OVER THE AREA AND THE CAN AND EC MDLS BRINGING A RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. FORECAST CONTINUES COOLER MOSTLY TO AGREE WITH THE
SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT HAVE TO CALL MYSELF OUT ON LACK OF
CONSISTENCY HERE SINCE IF EC/CAN WAS USED FOR SAT FCST SHOULD HAVE
PROBABLY USED THEIR WARMER TEMP FCST FOR SUNDAY.

ALL MDLS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THIS SHOULD KICK OFF A WARMING TREND. STILL GIVEN ALL OF
THE DISCREPANCY IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SOMETHING ELSE ACTUALLY HAPPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...

24/0540Z

AT KLAX AT 0505Z...THERE WAS A VERY WEAK 1000 FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER
WITH AN INVERSION TOP OF 1200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT XCP FOR A 30 PERCENT
CHC OF MVFR CIGS AT KLGB. NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PEAK TUESDAY EVENING.

KLAX...VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
XWNDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KT AND A 10 PERCENT CHC OF XWNDS 20 AND 30
KTS BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 12Z AND 20Z AND AGAIN
BETWEEN 01Z AND 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 PM.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...BUT BELIEVE THAT MARGINAL GALES ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME TUESDAY MORNING BUT
INCREASE MORE STRONGLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY. A MODERATE
SIZE WEST-NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCALLY DRIVEN WIND SEAS...WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 12
FEET BY WEDNESDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE NEAR-SHORE
WATERS AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL THAT ORIGINATED FROM A COMPLEX STORM
SYSTEM CENTERED 40S WITH A FETCH ORIENTED 190-220 DEGREES RELATIVE
TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PEAK SATURDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...23/900 PM.

SEAS NEAR 40 FEET GENERATED BY A STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE LAST WEEK WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 4 FEET WITH
A PERIOD BETWEEN 18 AND 20 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHEN THIS SWELL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SURF WILL BUILD AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
BECOME STRONG ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 241021
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A RETURN
TO SANTA ANA WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A
TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
A SPATE OF WINDY WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODERATE WEST
FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A RIDGING PATTERN BY
THURSDAY. A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE WEST FLOW WILL BRING ENOUGH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO SLO AND SBA COUNTIES TO TURN THE SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY. AT THE SFC MDT ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL TRANSITION
TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN TO THE NE BY THURSDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS FROM THE NW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS AND
DOWN INTO THE SBA SOUTH COAST BLO THE PASSES. IT WILL ALSO BE A
BREEZY DAY IN THE AV WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE LULL IN THE MTN WINDS
LATER TODAY AS THE GRADIENT TURN TO THE NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER BURST OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE MTNS THIS EVENING
ESP THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR. THE SANTA CLARITA VLY AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS AS WELL. AFTER
ANOTHER AFTERNOON LULL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE BUT PERHAPS NOT TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

TODAYS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THEN SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON WED AND THEN A BIG 8 TO 12
DEGREE JUMP ON THURSDAY. RECORDS ARE QUITE HIGH ON THURSDAY SO EVEN
THOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH A SMATTERING OF 90 DEGREES
READINGS IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT ANY RECORDS WILL FALL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE
RECORDS FOR THE 27TH ARE A FAIR AMOUNT LOWER THAN THURSDAY AND SOME
RECORDS WILL FALL.

ALL MDLS DISAGREE ON THE SATURDAY FORECAST THE EC WANTS TO BRING A
TROF INTO THE AREA THE GFS SEES CONTINUED RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE CANADIAN HAS A WEAKER TROF A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST OF
THE EC SOLN. FAVORED THE TROFFIER SOLN A LITTLE AND BROUGHT 5 OR SO
DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE AREA BUT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT TEMP WILL
BE CLOSE TO FRIDAYS VERY WARM READINGS.

MDL CONFUSION PERSISTS ON SUNDAY BUT THE MDLS FLIP FLOP WITH THE GFS
MOVING A TROF OVER THE AREA AND THE CAN AND EC MDLS BRINGING A RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. FORECAST CONTINUES COOLER MOSTLY TO AGREE WITH THE
SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT HAVE TO CALL MYSELF OUT ON LACK OF
CONSISTENCY HERE SINCE IF EC/CAN WAS USED FOR SAT FCST SHOULD HAVE
PROBABLY USED THEIR WARMER TEMP FCST FOR SUNDAY.

ALL MDLS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THIS SHOULD KICK OFF A WARMING TREND. STILL GIVEN ALL OF
THE DISCREPANCY IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SOMETHING ELSE ACTUALLY HAPPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...

24/0540Z

AT KLAX AT 0505Z...THERE WAS A VERY WEAK 1000 FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER
WITH AN INVERSION TOP OF 1200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT XCP FOR A 30 PERCENT
CHC OF MVFR CIGS AT KLGB. NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PEAK TUESDAY EVENING.

KLAX...VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
XWNDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KT AND A 10 PERCENT CHC OF XWNDS 20 AND 30
KTS BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 12Z AND 20Z AND AGAIN
BETWEEN 01Z AND 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 PM.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...BUT BELIEVE THAT MARGINAL GALES ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME TUESDAY MORNING BUT
INCREASE MORE STRONGLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY. A MODERATE
SIZE WEST-NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCALLY DRIVEN WIND SEAS...WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 12
FEET BY WEDNESDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE NEAR-SHORE
WATERS AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL THAT ORIGINATED FROM A COMPLEX STORM
SYSTEM CENTERED 40S WITH A FETCH ORIENTED 190-220 DEGREES RELATIVE
TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PEAK SATURDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...23/900 PM.

SEAS NEAR 40 FEET GENERATED BY A STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE LAST WEEK WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 4 FEET WITH
A PERIOD BETWEEN 18 AND 20 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHEN THIS SWELL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SURF WILL BUILD AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
BECOME STRONG ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 241021
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A RETURN
TO SANTA ANA WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A
TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
A SPATE OF WINDY WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODERATE WEST
FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A RIDGING PATTERN BY
THURSDAY. A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE WEST FLOW WILL BRING ENOUGH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO SLO AND SBA COUNTIES TO TURN THE SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY. AT THE SFC MDT ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL TRANSITION
TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN TO THE NE BY THURSDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS FROM THE NW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS AND
DOWN INTO THE SBA SOUTH COAST BLO THE PASSES. IT WILL ALSO BE A
BREEZY DAY IN THE AV WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE LULL IN THE MTN WINDS
LATER TODAY AS THE GRADIENT TURN TO THE NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER BURST OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE MTNS THIS EVENING
ESP THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR. THE SANTA CLARITA VLY AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS AS WELL. AFTER
ANOTHER AFTERNOON LULL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE BUT PERHAPS NOT TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

TODAYS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THEN SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON WED AND THEN A BIG 8 TO 12
DEGREE JUMP ON THURSDAY. RECORDS ARE QUITE HIGH ON THURSDAY SO EVEN
THOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH A SMATTERING OF 90 DEGREES
READINGS IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT ANY RECORDS WILL FALL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE
RECORDS FOR THE 27TH ARE A FAIR AMOUNT LOWER THAN THURSDAY AND SOME
RECORDS WILL FALL.

ALL MDLS DISAGREE ON THE SATURDAY FORECAST THE EC WANTS TO BRING A
TROF INTO THE AREA THE GFS SEES CONTINUED RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE CANADIAN HAS A WEAKER TROF A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST OF
THE EC SOLN. FAVORED THE TROFFIER SOLN A LITTLE AND BROUGHT 5 OR SO
DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE AREA BUT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT TEMP WILL
BE CLOSE TO FRIDAYS VERY WARM READINGS.

MDL CONFUSION PERSISTS ON SUNDAY BUT THE MDLS FLIP FLOP WITH THE GFS
MOVING A TROF OVER THE AREA AND THE CAN AND EC MDLS BRINGING A RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. FORECAST CONTINUES COOLER MOSTLY TO AGREE WITH THE
SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT HAVE TO CALL MYSELF OUT ON LACK OF
CONSISTENCY HERE SINCE IF EC/CAN WAS USED FOR SAT FCST SHOULD HAVE
PROBABLY USED THEIR WARMER TEMP FCST FOR SUNDAY.

ALL MDLS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THIS SHOULD KICK OFF A WARMING TREND. STILL GIVEN ALL OF
THE DISCREPANCY IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SOMETHING ELSE ACTUALLY HAPPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...

24/0540Z

AT KLAX AT 0505Z...THERE WAS A VERY WEAK 1000 FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER
WITH AN INVERSION TOP OF 1200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT XCP FOR A 30 PERCENT
CHC OF MVFR CIGS AT KLGB. NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PEAK TUESDAY EVENING.

KLAX...VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
XWNDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KT AND A 10 PERCENT CHC OF XWNDS 20 AND 30
KTS BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 12Z AND 20Z AND AGAIN
BETWEEN 01Z AND 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 PM.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...BUT BELIEVE THAT MARGINAL GALES ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME TUESDAY MORNING BUT
INCREASE MORE STRONGLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY. A MODERATE
SIZE WEST-NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCALLY DRIVEN WIND SEAS...WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 12
FEET BY WEDNESDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE NEAR-SHORE
WATERS AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL THAT ORIGINATED FROM A COMPLEX STORM
SYSTEM CENTERED 40S WITH A FETCH ORIENTED 190-220 DEGREES RELATIVE
TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PEAK SATURDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...23/900 PM.

SEAS NEAR 40 FEET GENERATED BY A STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE LAST WEEK WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 4 FEET WITH
A PERIOD BETWEEN 18 AND 20 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHEN THIS SWELL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SURF WILL BUILD AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
BECOME STRONG ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






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