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000
FXUS66 KLOX 230406
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
905 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY. WARMING IS
LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...THE MARINE INVERSION AT LAX EARLY THIS
EVENING WAS AROUND 900 FT DEEP. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WERE ABSENT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH FAIR SKIES AND A FEW HI
CLOUDS AT TIMES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WEAK EDDY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOCAL BIGHT LATER TONIGHT WHICH MAY HELP TO DEVELOP A FEW LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY S OF THE PALOS VERDES PENINSULA...
WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE IMMEDIATE L.A. COUNTY
COAST ESPECIALLY AROUND LONG BEACH BY DAYBREAK THU.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA ON
THU...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRI. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE
E PAC IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH MAINLY CENTRAL CA THRU THE DAY ON SAT.
AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS CAN BE EXPECTED THU MORNING...AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT MAINLY OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES. THIS WILL
LIMIT ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR
THE SOUTHERN L.A. COUNTY COAST. FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SOME
INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST. CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM A
DYING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES BY SAT AS
WELL. THE 00Z NAM IS FORECASTING DECENT MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 MB AND
700 MB MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE S AND SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE...WHILE THE 18Z GFS SHUNTS THIS MOISTURE WELL S
AND E OF THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. OVERALL...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THRU FRI...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR SAT. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY
WARMER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY OVER SLO/SBA
COUNTIES ON SAT...WITH NOT AS MUCH COOLING ELSEWHERE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...THE COOLING CONTINUES ON SUNDAY TO MAKE IT
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING
STRATUS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL LA AND VTU COUNTIES.

AFTER SUNDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AGAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS FAR AS HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL OCCUR. THE
GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EC
ACTUALLY PUTS A WEAK PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
GFS HAS SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO FAR. IN
GENERAL FORECAST REFLECTS A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT
NOTHING TOO WILD.

&&

.AVIATION...22/2355Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2300Z WAS 700
FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 24 DEGREES C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL THE AIRFIELDS THRU THU. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE
AT KLGB WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT
11Z-15Z THU...WITH A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING...AND AT
KLAX WHERE MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE 12Z-16Z. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AT THESE AIRFIELDS THRU THU.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU THU EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
12Z-16Z. THERE IS ALSO A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THU.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00S TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME RESURGENT
ON SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AGAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/JACKSON
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 222357 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
455 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY. WARMING IS
LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAY`S READINGS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE TO
HELP KEEP SKIES CLEAR...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGHS WILL BE DECENTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WEAK TO NEUTRAL OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE ONLY REAL CHANCE AT OVERNIGHT
STRATUS MIGHT BE SOME FORMING OVER THE LONG BEACH AREA TONIGHT.
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK EDDY FORMING BUT NOT THAT STRONG.

AS EVIDENT IN HEIGHT FALLS MIDDAY FRIDAY...THINGS BEGIN
TRANSITIONING ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE WEEKEND`S TROUGH PASSAGE.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SPEED AND INTENSITY
OF THE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE SOMETIME SATURDAY
AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK AND WASHED OUT COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWING THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY. FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH PUNCH TO
IT AT ALL THIS FAR SOUTH. MODEL QPF REMAINS HEAVIEST MUCH FURTHER TO
OUR NORTH WHERE THERE`S BETTER FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON
SATURDAY. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE LOOKS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
TRIMMED POPS BACK JUST A BIT TO REFLECT THAT VIEW.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE COOLING CONTINUES ON SUNDAY TO MAKE IT THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING STRATUS POSSIBLE OVER
COASTAL LA AND VTU COUNTIES.

AFTER SUNDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AGAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS FAR AS HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL OCCUR. THE
GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EC
ACTUALLY PUTS A WEAK PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
GFS HAS SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO FAR. IN
GENERAL FORECAST REFLECTS A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT
NOTHING TOO WILD.

&&

.AVIATION...22/2355Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2300Z WAS 700
FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 24 DEGREES C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL THE AIRFIELDS THRU THU. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE
AT KLGB WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT
11Z-15Z THU...WITH A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING...AND AT
KLAX WHERE MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE 12Z-16Z. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AT THESE AIRFIELDS THRU THU.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU THU EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
12Z-16Z. THERE IS ALSO A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THU.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00S TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...22/200 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME RESURGENT
ON SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AGAIN POSSIBLE.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 222357 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
455 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY. WARMING IS
LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAY`S READINGS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE TO
HELP KEEP SKIES CLEAR...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGHS WILL BE DECENTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WEAK TO NEUTRAL OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE ONLY REAL CHANCE AT OVERNIGHT
STRATUS MIGHT BE SOME FORMING OVER THE LONG BEACH AREA TONIGHT.
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK EDDY FORMING BUT NOT THAT STRONG.

AS EVIDENT IN HEIGHT FALLS MIDDAY FRIDAY...THINGS BEGIN
TRANSITIONING ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE WEEKEND`S TROUGH PASSAGE.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SPEED AND INTENSITY
OF THE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE SOMETIME SATURDAY
AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK AND WASHED OUT COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWING THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY. FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH PUNCH TO
IT AT ALL THIS FAR SOUTH. MODEL QPF REMAINS HEAVIEST MUCH FURTHER TO
OUR NORTH WHERE THERE`S BETTER FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON
SATURDAY. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE LOOKS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
TRIMMED POPS BACK JUST A BIT TO REFLECT THAT VIEW.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE COOLING CONTINUES ON SUNDAY TO MAKE IT THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING STRATUS POSSIBLE OVER
COASTAL LA AND VTU COUNTIES.

AFTER SUNDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AGAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS FAR AS HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL OCCUR. THE
GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EC
ACTUALLY PUTS A WEAK PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
GFS HAS SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO FAR. IN
GENERAL FORECAST REFLECTS A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT
NOTHING TOO WILD.

&&

.AVIATION...22/2355Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2300Z WAS 700
FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 24 DEGREES C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL THE AIRFIELDS THRU THU. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE
AT KLGB WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT
11Z-15Z THU...WITH A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING...AND AT
KLAX WHERE MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE 12Z-16Z. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AT THESE AIRFIELDS THRU THU.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU THU EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
12Z-16Z. THERE IS ALSO A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THU.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00S TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...22/200 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME RESURGENT
ON SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AGAIN POSSIBLE.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 222119
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
219 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY. WARMING IS
LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAY`S READINGS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE TO
HELP KEEP SKIES CLEAR...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGHS WILL BE DECENTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WEAK TO NEUTRAL OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE ONLY REAL CHANCE AT OVERNIGHT
STRATUS MIGHT BE SOME FORMING OVER THE LONG BEACH AREA TONIGHT.
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK EDDY FORMING BUT NOT THAT STRONG.

AS EVIDENT IN HEIGHT FALLS MIDDAY FRIDAY...THINGS BEGIN
TRANSITIONING ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE WEEKEND`S TROUGH PASSAGE.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SPEED AND INTENSITY
OF THE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE SOMETIME SATURDAY
AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK AND WASHED OUT COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWING THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY. FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH PUNCH TO
IT AT ALL THIS FAR SOUTH. MODEL QPF REMAINS HEAVIEST MUCH FURTHER TO
OUR NORTH WHERE THERE`S BETTER FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON
SATURDAY. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE LOOKS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
TRIMMED POPS BACK JUST A BIT TO REFLECT THAT VIEW.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE COOLING CONTINUES ON SUNDAY TO MAKE IT THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING STRATUS POSSIBLE OVER
COASTAL LA AND VTU COUNTIES.

AFTER SUNDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AGAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS FAR AS HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL OCCUR. THE
GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EC
ACTUALLY PUTS A WEAK PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
GFS HAS SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO FAR. IN
GENERAL FORECAST REFLECTS A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT
NOTHING TOO WILD.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1713Z WAS 1100 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS...ALBEIT SOME DOUBT ABOUT KLGB AND
WHETHER LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THAT SITE WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ALL OTHER TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...22/200 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME RESURGENT
ON SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AGAIN POSSIBLE.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 221847
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1145 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-FRI)...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW SPELL SUNNY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP THIS MORNING.
LATEST LAX TO DAG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS -1.9 TO HELP KEEP AWAY ANY
COASTAL STRATUS. HIGHS TODAY ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOW 70S
BEACHES...THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND VALLEYS AND AROUND 80 DESERTS.
OVERALL. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY TODAY. ONLY REAL FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY IS
THE LOCALLY GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS.  THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT SO SOME STRATUS MAY SNEAK INTO LA
COUNTY TONIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...THEN COOLING
THIS WEEKEND UNDER A PASSING TROUGH.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
A BIG CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A TROF AND
THE OFFSHORE FLOW FLIPS TO ONSHORE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER AND THINK IT WILL BE ANOTHER
DAY BEFORE THERE IS WIDESPREAD STRATUS. SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS A WEAK SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF. EC HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS GUNG HO RAIN
FCST IT HAD LAST NIGHT. IT STILL BRINGS RAIN THROUGH MOST OF SBA AND
SLO COUNTIES BUT NOW IT IS DRY ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTY. THE OTHER
MDLS HAVE A WEAKER AND DRIER FRONT AND DO NOT BRING ANY RAIN TO THE
AREA. SO RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHC POPS LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS WILL BE THE
BIG STORY WITH MAX TEMPS FALLING 6 TO 12 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE TROF AND SFC FRONT SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION SO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THERE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN MORNING. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS OF VTA AND LA COUNTY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7 WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND 576 DM HGTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4
TO 8 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

A WEAK RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHER HGTS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE MARINE INVERSION AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORE LOW
CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE AND THE SFC FLO WILL TREND
OFFSHORE THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT
NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1713Z WAS 1100 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS...ALBEIT SOME DOUBT ABOUT KLGB AND
WHETHER LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THAT SITE WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ALL OTHER TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...22/935 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCAL WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

THE RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 221634
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-FRI)...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW SPELL SUNNY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP THIS MORNING.
LATEST LAX TO DAG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS -1.9 TO HELP KEEP AWAY ANY
COASTAL STRATUS. HIGHS TODAY ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOW 70S
BEACHES...THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND VALLEYS AND AROUND 80 DESERTS.
OVERALL. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY TODAY. ONLY REAL FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY IS
THE LOCALLY GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS.  THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT SO SOME STRATUS MAY SNEAK INTO LA
COUNTY TONIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...THEN COOLING
THIS WEEKEND UNDER A PASSING TROUGH.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
A BIG CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A TROF AND
THE OFFSHORE FLOW FLIPS TO ONSHORE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER AND THINK IT WILL BE ANOTHER
DAY BEFORE THERE IS WIDESPREAD STRATUS. SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS A WEAK SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF. EC HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS GUNG HO RAIN
FCST IT HAD LAST NIGHT. IT STILL BRINGS RAIN THROUGH MOST OF SBA AND
SLO COUNTIES BUT NOW IT IS DRY ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTY. THE OTHER
MDLS HAVE A WEAKER AND DRIER FRONT AND DO NOT BRING ANY RAIN TO THE
AREA. SO RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHC POPS LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS WILL BE THE
BIG STORY WITH MAX TEMPS FALLING 6 TO 12 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE TROF AND SFC FRONT SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION SO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THERE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN MORNING. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS OF VTA AND LA COUNTY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7 WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND 576 DM HGTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4
TO 8 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

A WEAK RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHER HGTS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE MARINE INVERSION AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORE LOW
CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE AND THE SFC FLO WILL TREND
OFFSHORE THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT
NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1000Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0700Z WAS 900 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS 12Z-16Z THIS MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/935 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCAL WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

THE RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET/RAT
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 221634
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-FRI)...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW SPELL SUNNY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP THIS MORNING.
LATEST LAX TO DAG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS -1.9 TO HELP KEEP AWAY ANY
COASTAL STRATUS. HIGHS TODAY ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOW 70S
BEACHES...THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND VALLEYS AND AROUND 80 DESERTS.
OVERALL. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY TODAY. ONLY REAL FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY IS
THE LOCALLY GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS.  THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT SO SOME STRATUS MAY SNEAK INTO LA
COUNTY TONIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...THEN COOLING
THIS WEEKEND UNDER A PASSING TROUGH.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
A BIG CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A TROF AND
THE OFFSHORE FLOW FLIPS TO ONSHORE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER AND THINK IT WILL BE ANOTHER
DAY BEFORE THERE IS WIDESPREAD STRATUS. SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS A WEAK SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF. EC HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS GUNG HO RAIN
FCST IT HAD LAST NIGHT. IT STILL BRINGS RAIN THROUGH MOST OF SBA AND
SLO COUNTIES BUT NOW IT IS DRY ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTY. THE OTHER
MDLS HAVE A WEAKER AND DRIER FRONT AND DO NOT BRING ANY RAIN TO THE
AREA. SO RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHC POPS LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS WILL BE THE
BIG STORY WITH MAX TEMPS FALLING 6 TO 12 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE TROF AND SFC FRONT SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION SO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THERE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN MORNING. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS OF VTA AND LA COUNTY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7 WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND 576 DM HGTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4
TO 8 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

A WEAK RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHER HGTS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE MARINE INVERSION AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORE LOW
CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE AND THE SFC FLO WILL TREND
OFFSHORE THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT
NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1000Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0700Z WAS 900 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS 12Z-16Z THIS MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/935 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCAL WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

THE RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET/RAT
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 221034
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM KBFL AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM KDAG
HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR THIS MORNING. HGTS WILL SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW AS AN EAST PAC RIDGE EXPANDS. SBA
SOUTH COAST SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND THE WIND ADVISORY
HAS EXPIRED. THE BEST WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AT THE
MOMENT. IT WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY TODAY WITH ALMOST ALL CST AND
VLY HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH SOME MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST WILL DRIVE MANY TEMPS UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THESE TEMPS WILL BE REACHED VERY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY QUICKLY COOL THINGS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TONIGHT. A LITTLE EDDY COULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO THE LONG BEACH-LAX AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME NORTHERLY OFFSHORE
WINDS BUT NOTHING REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY WILL LOOK A LOT LIKE TODAY SAVE FOR THE LONG BEACH LOW
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST.

NOT MUCH CHANGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT EITHER WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY EXCEPT OVER THE LONG BEACH AREA.

ON FRIDAY THE RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AS AN EAST PAC TROF
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE FLOW OVERHEAD TURN TO THE SW. HGTS WILL
STILL BE NEAR 585 DM 4 OR 5 DM HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THERE WILL STILL
BE OFFSHORE SFC FLOW JUST A LITTLE WEAKER THAN TODAY OR THU. SO OVER
ALL LOOK FOR A SUNNY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BUT JUST A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THU.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
A BIG CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A TROF AND
THE OFFSHORE FLOW FLIPS TO ONSHORE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER AND THINK IT WILL BE ANOTHER
DAY BEFORE THERE IS WIDESPREAD STRATUS. SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS A WEAK SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF. EC HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS GUNG HO RAIN
FCST IT HAD LAST NIGHT. IT STILL BRINGS RAIN THROUGH MOST OF SBA AND
SLO COUNTIES BUT NOW IT IS DRY ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTY. THE OTHER
MDLS HAVE A WEAKER AND DRIER FRONT AND DO NOT BRING ANY RAIN TO THE
AREA. SO RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHC POPS LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS WILL BE THE
BIG STORY WITH MAX TEMPS FALLING 6 TO 12 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE TROF AND SFC FRONT SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION SO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THERE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN MORNING. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS OF VTA AND LA COUNTY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7 WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND 576 DM HGTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4
TO 8 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

A WEAK RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHER HGTS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE MARINE INVERSION AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORE LOW
CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE AND THE SFC FLO WILL TREND
OFFSHORE THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT
NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1000Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0700Z WAS 900 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS 12Z-16Z THIS MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/245 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCAL WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

THE RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 220528 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1028 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-FRI)...HIGH TEMPS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS
IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE THE
SAN LUCIA MTN OFFSHORE WINDS HELPED TO CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE TODAY.
MOST VALLEYS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WHILE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION WERE JUST ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING CIRRUS
MOVING NW TO SE WITH THE BROAD UPPER NW FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. FOR NOW THERE IS
SOME STRATUS IN THE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN LA COUNTY COAST
AS A VERY WEAK EDDY DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH THIS DOMINANT NORTHERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-BFL AND SBA-SMX
WOULD THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...WHILE
SOME OF THE ENERGY WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND
NORTHERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SANTA CLARITA VALLEY SHOULD
RECEIVE GUSTS TO 30 WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...WHILE THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
405 CORRIDOR INTO VAN NUYS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE SANTA BARBARA
SOUTH COAST AND ALTHOUGH NW WINDS AROUND GAVIOTA HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
IMPRESSIVE...THE LATEST SBA-BFL GRADIENT WAS CLIMBING TO -5.2 MB.
THIS IS A FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND ZONE AFFECTING THE HILLS
ABOVE AND AROUND MONTECITO. SO WILL BE ADDING THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
TO GO ALONG WITH THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

ONLY CHANGES NEEDED TONIGHT WAS FOR THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES. A DECENT OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL FOCUS OUT OF THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL WARMING TO THE CENTRAL COAST TOMORROW AS WELL AS
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

AS FAR AS OFFSHORE WINDS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES...NOT LOOKING
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. LAX-DAG WILL LIMP TO JUST UNDER -2 MB BY WED
MORNING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST TOMORROW AND WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE...AND WITH WITH THE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE WITH TEMPS...WITH MORE WARMING FOR
THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS ON THU WHERE HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
FOR THE LA/VTU COAST. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK...TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY ALONG THE LA/VTU COAST ALLOWING A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PATHCY DENSE FOG RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST EARLY THU MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN A BIT
EARLIER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND POSSIBLY IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY FOR THE MOST PART. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THU/FRI.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MODELS ARE NOW ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACING
A DIGGING TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND AT THIS POINT
SWINGING ITS MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY. 12Z
GUIDANCE PUSHES A WEAK FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME LOW POPS OVER AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY...FRONT APPEARS PRETTY WEAK
THIS FAR SOUTH WITH BEST QPF WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEFT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION AS IS FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME DON`T EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE TROF`S INTENSITY
FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN.

THE PASSING TROUGH WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS 10 TO IN SOME PLACES 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND PLENTY BELOW
NORMAL...HELPING IT FEEL VERY FALL LIKE. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH PASSES AND
CANYONS.

SOME VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND EC PAST SUNDAY AS FAR AS
THE BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND SATURDAY`S TROUGH. BUT IN
GENERAL RISING HEIGHTS WILL WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONGEST ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0525Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z WAS 1100 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING AT KSMX...AND IFR CONDS AT KLGB
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN CLEAR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS 10Z-16Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...21/900 PM...

NORTHWEST GALES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...STRONGEST BETWEEN POINT CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. THE SOMEWHAT LONG PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED STRONG WINDS HAS PRODUCED LARGE COMBINED SEAS...AS SHORT
PERIOD WAVES COMBINE WITH A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. PEAK
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 10-14 FEET AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WINDS START TO SUBSIDE
AROUND 3 AM. FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL HOWEVER SEAS CONTINUE TO BE A LARGER MIX OF LONG AND
SHORTER PERIODS...PEAKING AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET AT 7-8 SECONDS.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT SMALL CRAFT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...FALLING BELOW 10 FEET BY THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/JACKSON
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 220528 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1028 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-FRI)...HIGH TEMPS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS
IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE THE
SAN LUCIA MTN OFFSHORE WINDS HELPED TO CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE TODAY.
MOST VALLEYS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WHILE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION WERE JUST ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING CIRRUS
MOVING NW TO SE WITH THE BROAD UPPER NW FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. FOR NOW THERE IS
SOME STRATUS IN THE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN LA COUNTY COAST
AS A VERY WEAK EDDY DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH THIS DOMINANT NORTHERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-BFL AND SBA-SMX
WOULD THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...WHILE
SOME OF THE ENERGY WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND
NORTHERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SANTA CLARITA VALLEY SHOULD
RECEIVE GUSTS TO 30 WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...WHILE THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
405 CORRIDOR INTO VAN NUYS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE SANTA BARBARA
SOUTH COAST AND ALTHOUGH NW WINDS AROUND GAVIOTA HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
IMPRESSIVE...THE LATEST SBA-BFL GRADIENT WAS CLIMBING TO -5.2 MB.
THIS IS A FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND ZONE AFFECTING THE HILLS
ABOVE AND AROUND MONTECITO. SO WILL BE ADDING THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
TO GO ALONG WITH THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

ONLY CHANGES NEEDED TONIGHT WAS FOR THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES. A DECENT OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL FOCUS OUT OF THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL WARMING TO THE CENTRAL COAST TOMORROW AS WELL AS
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

AS FAR AS OFFSHORE WINDS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES...NOT LOOKING
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. LAX-DAG WILL LIMP TO JUST UNDER -2 MB BY WED
MORNING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST TOMORROW AND WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE...AND WITH WITH THE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE WITH TEMPS...WITH MORE WARMING FOR
THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS ON THU WHERE HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
FOR THE LA/VTU COAST. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK...TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY ALONG THE LA/VTU COAST ALLOWING A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PATHCY DENSE FOG RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST EARLY THU MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN A BIT
EARLIER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND POSSIBLY IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY FOR THE MOST PART. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THU/FRI.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MODELS ARE NOW ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACING
A DIGGING TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND AT THIS POINT
SWINGING ITS MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY. 12Z
GUIDANCE PUSHES A WEAK FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME LOW POPS OVER AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY...FRONT APPEARS PRETTY WEAK
THIS FAR SOUTH WITH BEST QPF WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEFT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION AS IS FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME DON`T EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE TROF`S INTENSITY
FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN.

THE PASSING TROUGH WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS 10 TO IN SOME PLACES 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND PLENTY BELOW
NORMAL...HELPING IT FEEL VERY FALL LIKE. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH PASSES AND
CANYONS.

SOME VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND EC PAST SUNDAY AS FAR AS
THE BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND SATURDAY`S TROUGH. BUT IN
GENERAL RISING HEIGHTS WILL WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONGEST ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0525Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z WAS 1100 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING AT KSMX...AND IFR CONDS AT KLGB
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN CLEAR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS 10Z-16Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...21/900 PM...

NORTHWEST GALES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...STRONGEST BETWEEN POINT CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. THE SOMEWHAT LONG PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED STRONG WINDS HAS PRODUCED LARGE COMBINED SEAS...AS SHORT
PERIOD WAVES COMBINE WITH A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. PEAK
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 10-14 FEET AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WINDS START TO SUBSIDE
AROUND 3 AM. FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL HOWEVER SEAS CONTINUE TO BE A LARGER MIX OF LONG AND
SHORTER PERIODS...PEAKING AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET AT 7-8 SECONDS.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT SMALL CRAFT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...FALLING BELOW 10 FEET BY THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/JACKSON
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 220314
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-FRI)...HIGH TEMPS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS
IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE THE
SAN LUCIA MTN OFFSHORE WINDS HELPED TO CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE TODAY.
MOST VALLEYS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WHILE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION WERE JUST ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING CIRRUS
MOVING NW TO SE WITH THE BROAD UPPER NW FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. FOR NOW THERE IS
SOME STRATUS IN THE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN LA COUNTY COAST
AS A VERY WEAK EDDY DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH THIS DOMINANT NORTHERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-BFL AND SBA-SMX
WOULD THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...WHILE
SOME OF THE ENERGY WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND
NORTHERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SANTA CLARITA VALLEY SHOULD
RECEIVE GUSTS TO 30 WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...WHILE THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
405 CORRIDOR INTO VAN NUYS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE SANTA BARBARA
SOUTH COAST AND ALTHOUGH NW WINDS AROUND GAVIOTA HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
IMPRESSIVE...THE LATEST SBA-BFL GRADIENT WAS CLIMBING TO -5.2 MB.
THIS IS A FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND ZONE AFFECTING THE HILLS
ABOVE AND AROUND MONTECITO. SO WILL BE ADDING THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
TO GO ALONG WITH THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

ONLY CHANGES NEEDED TONIGHT WAS FOR THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES. A DECENT OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL FOCUS OUT OF THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL WARMING TO THE CENTRAL COAST TOMORROW AS WELL AS
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

AS FAR AS OFFSHORE WINDS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES...NOT LOOKING
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. LAX-DAG WILL LIMP TO JUST UNDER -2 MB BY WED
MORNING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST TOMORROW AND WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE...AND WITH WITH THE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE WITH TEMPS...WITH MORE WARMING FOR
THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS ON THU WHERE HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
FOR THE LA/VTU COAST. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK...TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY ALONG THE LA/VTU COAST ALLOWING A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PATHCY DENSE FOG RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST EARLY THU MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN A BIT
EARLIER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND POSSIBLY IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY FOR THE MOST PART. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THU/FRI.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MODELS ARE NOW ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACING
A DIGGING TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND AT THIS POINT
SWINGING ITS MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY. 12Z
GUIDANCE PUSHES A WEAK FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME LOW POPS OVER AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY...FRONT APPEARS PRETTY WEAK
THIS FAR SOUTH WITH BEST QPF WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEFT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION AS IS FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME DON`T EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE TROF`S INTENSITY
FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN.

THE PASSING TROUGH WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS 10 TO IN SOME PLACES 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND PLENTY BELOW
NORMAL...HELPING IT FEEL VERY FALL LIKE. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH PASSES AND
CANYONS.

SOME VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND EC PAST SUNDAY AS FAR AS
THE BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND SATURDAY`S TROUGH. BUT IN
GENERAL RISING HEIGHTS WILL WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONGEST ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0000Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2350Z WAS 1200 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24
HOURS. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS 09Z-15Z TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AT KPRB AFTER 10Z THROUGH
16Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS ALL INLAND TAFS SITES AND SBA/VTA
COUNTY TAFS. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS FOR KLGB AND KLAX AFTER
09Z-16Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF THROUGH 06Z..THEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE TO 50 PERCENT FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z THROUGH 16Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...21/900 PM...

NORTHWEST GALES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...STRONGEST BETWEEN POINT CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. THE SOMEWHAT LONG PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED STRONG WINDS HAS PRODUCED LARGE COMBINED SEAS...AS SHORT
PERIOD WAVES COMBINE WITH A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. PEAK
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 10-14 FEET AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WINDS START TO SUBSIDE
AROUND 3 AM. FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL HOWEVER SEAS CONTINUE TO BE A LARGER MIX OF LONG AND
SHORTER PERIODS...PEAKING AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET AT 7-8 SECONDS.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT SMALL CRAFT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...FALLING BELOW 10 FEET BY THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES























000
FXUS66 KLOX 220005
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
505 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TO BRING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-FRI)...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS CRUISING THROUGH
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A PRETTY QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA SO
FAR. HEIGHTS HAVE BEGUN TO RISE IN ADVANCE OF SOME BUILDING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL HELP WARM THINGS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME OF
THAT WARMING HAS STARTED TODAY ALONG COASTAL AREAS WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS HAVE ACTUALLY COOLED A FEW DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE SUNDOWNER
WINDS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST. NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT`S WHEN SOME OF THE HIGHER
AREAS OF MONTECITO EXPERIENCED WIND GUSTS JUST OVER 40 MPH. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS ARE ALSO VERY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT SO WIND ADVISORY IS
IN ORDER FOR THE AREA FOR SIMILAR WINDS THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS
THE LOW 40S IN THE USUAL SPOTS...DIMINISHING BY SUNRISE. GRADIENTS
WEAKEN TOMORROW NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO RETURN
WED NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TO HELP GRADUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BOTH PRETTY SIMILAR AS FAR
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GO...SOME SPOTS WARMER FRIDAY...SOME SPOTS A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MODELS ARE NOW ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACING
A DIGGING TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND AT THIS POINT
SWINGING ITS MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY. 12Z
GUIDANCE PUSHES A WEAK FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME LOW POPS OVER AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY...FRONT APPEARS PRETTY WEAK
THIS FAR SOUTH WITH BEST QPF WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEFT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION AS IS FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME DON`T EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE TROF`S INTENSITY
FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN.

THE PASSING TROUGH WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS 10 TO IN SOME PLACES 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND PLENTY BELOW
NORMAL...HELPING IT FEEL VERY FALL LIKE. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH PASSES AND
CANYONS.

SOME VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND EC PAST SUNDAY AS FAR AS
THE BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND SATURDAY`S TROUGH. BUT IN
GENERAL RISING HEIGHTS WILL WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONGEST ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0000Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2350Z WAS 1200 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24
HOURS. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS 09Z-15Z TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AT KPRB AFTER 10Z THROUGH
16Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS ALL INLAND TAFS SITES AND SBA/VTA
COUNTY TAFS. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS FOR KLGB AND KLAX AFTER
09Z-16Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF THROUGH 06Z..THEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE TO 50 PERCENT FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z THROUGH 16Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CONDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR
MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SBA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON/KH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




















000
FXUS66 KLOX 212115
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TO BRING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-FRI)...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS CRUISING THROUGH
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A PRETTY QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA SO
FAR. HEIGHTS HAVE BEGUN TO RISE IN ADVANCE OF SOME BUILDING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL HELP WARM THINGS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME OF
THAT WARMING HAS STARTED TODAY ALONG COASTAL AREAS WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS HAVE ACTUALLY COOLED A FEW DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE SUNDOWNER
WINDS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST. NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT`S WHEN SOME OF THE HIGHER
AREAS OF MONTECITO EXPERIENCED WIND GUSTS JUST OVER 40 MPH. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS ARE ALSO VERY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT SO WIND ADVISORY IS
IN ORDER FOR THE AREA FOR SIMILAR WINDS THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS
THE LOW 40S IN THE USUAL SPOTS...DIMINISHING BY SUNRISE. GRADIENTS
WEAKEN TOMORROW NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO RETURN
WED NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TO HELP GRADUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BOTH PRETTY SIMILAR AS FAR
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GO...SOME SPOTS WARMER FRIDAY...SOME SPOTS A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MODELS ARE NOW ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACING
A DIGGING TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND AT THIS POINT
SWINGING ITS MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY. 12Z
GUIDANCE PUSHES A WEAK FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME LOW POPS OVER AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY...FRONT APPEARS PRETTY WEAK
THIS FAR SOUTH WITH BEST QPF WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEFT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION AS IS FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME DON`T EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE TROF`S INTENSITY
FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN.

THE PASSING TROUGH WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS 10 TO IN SOME PLACES 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND PLENTY BELOW
NORMAL...HELPING IT FEEL VERY FALL LIKE. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH PASSES AND
CANYONS.

SOME VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND EC PAST SUNDAY AS FAR AS
THE BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND SATURDAY`S TROUGH. BUT IN
GENERAL RISING HEIGHTS WILL WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONGEST ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1701Z IS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES C.

POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTH COASTAL TAFS AND KPRB TAF FROM
18Z...OTHERWISE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS. MAIN QUESTION FOR LOW
CONFIDENCE TAFS IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY LOW CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CONDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR
MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SBA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON/KH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

















000
FXUS66 KLOX 211803
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND BRING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THAT PEAKS ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AN INCREASE IN COASTAL OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-FRI)...THE UPPER TROF MOVED BY THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND LEFT IN ITS WAKE SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IN CLOUD COVER IS OVER
SOUTHERN LA COUNTY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON THIS HOUR IN A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH SLO
COUNTY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND CLOUDS HUGGING THE VTU
COUNTY NORTH SLOPES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC. WILL STILL
BE QUITE A BIT OF SUN MOST AREAS WHEN AVERAGED OVER THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SUNDOWNER WINDS STARTING
THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE AS STRONG IF NOT A BIT STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT SO WILL BE ISSUING ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN A BUILDING RIDGE TO USHER IN A
BRIEF WARMING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD PEAK ON THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES...AND THEN ANOTHER SEVERAL DEGREES ON THURSDAY. STILL
DOESN`T LOOK TO BE QUITE AS WARM ON THURSDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...BUT STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY MORNING CANYON WINDS BUT OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A CONCERN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1701Z IS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES C.

POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTH COASTAL TAFS AND KPRB TAF FROM
18Z...OTHERWISE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS. MAIN QUESTION FOR LOW
CONFIDENCE TAFS IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY LOW CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...21/900 AM...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 211646
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
946 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND BRING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THAT PEAKS ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AN INCREASE IN COASTAL OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-FRI)...THE UPPER TROF MOVED BY THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND LEFT IN ITS WAKE SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IN CLOUD COVER IS OVER
SOUTHERN LA COUNTY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON THIS HOUR IN A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH SLO
COUNTY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND CLOUDS HUGGING THE VTU
COUNTY NORTH SLOPES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC. WILL STILL
BE QUITE A BIT OF SUN MOST AREAS WHEN AVERAGED OVER THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SUNDOWNER WINDS STARTING
THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE AS STRONG IF NOT A BIT STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT SO WILL BE ISSUING ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN A BUILDING RIDGE TO USHER IN A
BRIEF WARMING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD PEAK ON THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES...AND THEN ANOTHER SEVERAL DEGREES ON THURSDAY. STILL
DOESN`T LOOK TO BE QUITE AS WARM ON THURSDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...BUT STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY MORNING CANYON WINDS BUT OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A CONCERN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...21/900 AM...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 211414 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
710 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE COOL AND BREEZY TODAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FROM SANTA BARBARA NORTHWARD AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE COOLER DURING THE WEEKEND BUT
THEY WILL BE WARM AGAIN IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 211414 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
710 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE COOL AND BREEZY TODAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FROM SANTA BARBARA NORTHWARD AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE COOLER DURING THE WEEKEND BUT
THEY WILL BE WARM AGAIN IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 211201 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 211201 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 211201 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 211201 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 211105 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 211105 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 211105 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 211105 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 211104
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DEDENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTIUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADINET HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABREIL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADITATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO AGRESSIVE
SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE COVERAGE ACROSS
THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO BITE
ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE MDLS SAY LATER
TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 211104
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DEDENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTIUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADINET HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABREIL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADITATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO AGRESSIVE
SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE COVERAGE ACROSS
THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO BITE
ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE MDLS SAY LATER
TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 211104
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DEDENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTIUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADINET HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABREIL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADITATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO AGRESSIVE
SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE COVERAGE ACROSS
THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO BITE
ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE MDLS SAY LATER
TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 211104
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DEDENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTIUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADINET HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABREIL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADITATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO AGRESSIVE
SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE COVERAGE ACROSS
THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO BITE
ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE MDLS SAY LATER
TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 210536 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOME NORTH
FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. TIGHTENING NORTHWEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. ALREADY
SEEING SBA-SANTA MARIA GRADIENT CLIMBING TO -3.6 MB AS OF 8
PM...GENERATING NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 36 MPH AT LAS FLORES
CANYON. WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SBA SOUTH COAST
TONIGHT...AS SBA-SANTA MARIA PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY TREND
MORE OFFSHORE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO
PILE UP SOME MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES. THIS UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY ALSO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAIN SLOPES. OTHERWISE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN MARINE INVERSION. SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE LA COUNTY COAST. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
IMPACT THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND WESTERN ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS
EVENING BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

TEMPS ON TUE WILL TURN WARMER ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH READINGS STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO SWRN CA ON
TUE WILL BUILD FURTHER ACROSS SRN CA TUE NIGHT AND WED. OFFSHORE
FLOW...LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS
SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS AGAIN...BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NAM WAS FORECASTING A LINGERING EDDY OVER THE
SRN CA BIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LOW CLOUDS TO
THE SRN L.A. COUNTY COAST. OVERALL... THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT AND WED.

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THU.
IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OFFSHORE FLOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...EXCEPT THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK EDDY WITH LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED. THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE MORE TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FRI THRU
SAT WITH UPPER RIDGE LINGERING FRI THEN AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE E PAC ON SAT. THE GFS DOES BRING A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SAT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...
WHILE THE EC IS NOT AS FAST AND HOLDS OFF TIL LATE SAT AND SAT
EVENING. BIGGER DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE
GFS PASSES THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF QUICKLY E SUN WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK IN BY LATE SUN...WHILE EC SLOWS UPPER TROF DOWN AND
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA EARLY SUN WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN MOVES THIS
SYSTEM AWAY SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN MON.
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND TIMING OF DISSIPATING FRONT
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES SUN. SOME
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY COAST NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOME BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SAT THEN INCREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION...21/0530Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.


KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.


&&

.MARINE...20/800 PM...
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. IN EVENING
UPDATE...HAVE UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR ZONES 673/676 FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/SIRARD
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 210326
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOME NORTH
FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. TIGHTENING NORTHWEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. ALREADY
SEEING SBA-SANTA MARIA GRADIENT CLIMBING TO -3.6 MB AS OF 8 PM...GENERATING
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 36 MPH AT LAS FLORES CANYON. WIND ADVISORY
LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SBA SOUTH COAST TONIGHT...AS SBA-SANTA MARIA PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY TREND MORE OFFSHORE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PILE UP SOME MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SLO/SBA
COUNTIES. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALSO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN SLOPES. OTHERWISE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN MARINE INVERSION. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LA COUNTY COAST. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO IMPACT THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND WESTERN ANTELOPE VALLEY
THIS EVENING BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

TEMPS ON TUE WILL TURN WARMER ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH READINGS STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO SWRN CA ON
TUE WILL BUILD FURTHER ACROSS SRN CA TUE NIGHT AND WED. OFFSHORE
FLOW...LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS
SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS AGAIN...BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NAM WAS FORECASTING A LINGERING EDDY OVER THE
SRN CA BIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LOW CLOUDS TO
THE SRN L.A. COUNTY COAST. OVERALL... THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT AND WED.

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THU.
IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OFFSHORE FLOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...EXCEPT THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK EDDY WITH LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED. THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE MORE TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FRI THRU
SAT WITH UPPER RIDGE LINGERING FRI THEN AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE E PAC ON SAT. THE GFS DOES BRING A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SAT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...
WHILE THE EC IS NOT AS FAST AND HOLDS OFF TIL LATE SAT AND SAT
EVENING. BIGGER DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE
GFS PASSES THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF QUICKLY E SUN WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK IN BY LATE SUN...WHILE EC SLOWS UPPER TROF DOWN AND
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA EARLY SUN WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN MOVES THIS
SYSTEM AWAY SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN MON.
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND TIMING OF DISSIPATING FRONT
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES SUN. SOME
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY COAST NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOME BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SAT THEN INCREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION...20/2330Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2300Z IS 1600 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...MARINE INVERSION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF
LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF ANY CIGS DEVELOPING WOULD BE AT KLAX AND
KLGB LATER TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...20/800 PM...
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. IN EVENING
UPDATE...HAVE UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR ZONES 673/676 FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/SIRARD
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 210326
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOME NORTH
FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. TIGHTENING NORTHWEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. ALREADY
SEEING SBA-SANTA MARIA GRADIENT CLIMBING TO -3.6 MB AS OF 8 PM...GENERATING
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 36 MPH AT LAS FLORES CANYON. WIND ADVISORY
LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SBA SOUTH COAST TONIGHT...AS SBA-SANTA MARIA PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY TREND MORE OFFSHORE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PILE UP SOME MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SLO/SBA
COUNTIES. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALSO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN SLOPES. OTHERWISE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN MARINE INVERSION. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LA COUNTY COAST. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO IMPACT THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND WESTERN ANTELOPE VALLEY
THIS EVENING BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

TEMPS ON TUE WILL TURN WARMER ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH READINGS STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO SWRN CA ON
TUE WILL BUILD FURTHER ACROSS SRN CA TUE NIGHT AND WED. OFFSHORE
FLOW...LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS
SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS AGAIN...BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NAM WAS FORECASTING A LINGERING EDDY OVER THE
SRN CA BIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LOW CLOUDS TO
THE SRN L.A. COUNTY COAST. OVERALL... THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT AND WED.

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THU.
IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OFFSHORE FLOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...EXCEPT THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK EDDY WITH LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED. THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE MORE TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FRI THRU
SAT WITH UPPER RIDGE LINGERING FRI THEN AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE E PAC ON SAT. THE GFS DOES BRING A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SAT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...
WHILE THE EC IS NOT AS FAST AND HOLDS OFF TIL LATE SAT AND SAT
EVENING. BIGGER DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE
GFS PASSES THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF QUICKLY E SUN WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK IN BY LATE SUN...WHILE EC SLOWS UPPER TROF DOWN AND
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA EARLY SUN WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN MOVES THIS
SYSTEM AWAY SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN MON.
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND TIMING OF DISSIPATING FRONT
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES SUN. SOME
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY COAST NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOME BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SAT THEN INCREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION...20/2330Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2300Z IS 1600 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...MARINE INVERSION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF
LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF ANY CIGS DEVELOPING WOULD BE AT KLAX AND
KLGB LATER TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...20/800 PM...
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. IN EVENING
UPDATE...HAVE UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR ZONES 673/676 FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/SIRARD
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 202331
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER TO THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WITH AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS APPROACHING THE
CENTRAL COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THAT COVERED
MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS THIS MORNING DISSIPATED IN MOST AREAS BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE VTU
COAST AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SOME HI CLOUDS COVERED THE REGION. GUSTY S TO W WINDS WERE
NOTED IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE W THROUGH LATE TODAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INLAND ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL CA TONIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT
DISSIPATES OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS TO THE L.A./VTU MTNS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS
GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS TO THE SBA COUNTY S COAST AND MTNS. IT
LOOKS LIKE GUSTS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT
SHOULD REACH THESE LEVELS AT TIMES BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SBA S COAST. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA FOR THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT. THE DYING COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE TO THE N MTN SLOPES AND INTO THE FAR
SERN VLYS OF SLO COUNTY AND THE CUYAMA VLY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...WITH CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS...AND ADDED
POPS TO THESE AREAS FOR THAT PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON ZONES. SOME LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS TO THE L.A.
COUNTY COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL VLY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THRU TUE. TEMPS ON TUE WILL TURN WARMER ALONG THE COAST AND
ADJACENT VLYS TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH READINGS STILL
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO SWRN CA ON
TUE WILL BUILD FURTHER ACROSS SRN CA TUE NIGHT AND WED. OFFSHORE
FLOW...LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS
SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS AGAIN...BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NAM WAS FORECASTING A LINGERING EDDY OVER THE
SRN CA BIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LOW CLOUDS TO
THE SRN L.A. COUNTY COAST. OVERALL... THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT AND WED.

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THU.
IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OFFSHORE FLOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...EXCEPT THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK EDDY WITH LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED. THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE MORE TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FRI THRU
SAT WITH UPPER RIDGE LINGERING FRI THEN AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE E PAC ON SAT. THE GFS DOES BRING A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SAT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...
WHILE THE EC IS NOT AS FAST AND HOLDS OFF TIL LATE SAT AND SAT
EVENING. BIGGER DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE
GFS PASSES THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF QUICKLY E SUN WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK IN BY LATE SUN...WHILE EC SLOWS UPPER TROF DOWN AND
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA EARLY SUN WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN MOVES THIS
SYSTEM AWAY SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN MON.
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND TIMING OF DISSIPATING FRONT
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES SUN. SOME
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY COAST NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOME BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SAT THEN INCREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION...20/2330Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2300Z IS 1600 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...MARINE INVERSION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF
LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF ANY CIGS DEVELOPING WOULD BE AT KLAX AND
KLGB LATER TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...20/200 PM...

MADE NUMEROUS CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS PER THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. GENERALLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING FORECAST UNLESS
OTHERWISE STATED. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS WELL. MADE AREA AND TIMING CHANGES
TO THE GALE WATCH FOR TUESDAY SINCE THE GALES ARE NOT LIKELY UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY AND THEY MAY NOT AFFECT THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
THERE IS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE AT BEST FOR THE GALE WATCH WITH MARINE
ZONES 673 AND 676 HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING FREQUENT GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 202331
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER TO THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WITH AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS APPROACHING THE
CENTRAL COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THAT COVERED
MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS THIS MORNING DISSIPATED IN MOST AREAS BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE VTU
COAST AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SOME HI CLOUDS COVERED THE REGION. GUSTY S TO W WINDS WERE
NOTED IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE W THROUGH LATE TODAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INLAND ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL CA TONIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT
DISSIPATES OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS TO THE L.A./VTU MTNS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS
GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS TO THE SBA COUNTY S COAST AND MTNS. IT
LOOKS LIKE GUSTS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT
SHOULD REACH THESE LEVELS AT TIMES BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SBA S COAST. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA FOR THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT. THE DYING COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE TO THE N MTN SLOPES AND INTO THE FAR
SERN VLYS OF SLO COUNTY AND THE CUYAMA VLY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...WITH CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS...AND ADDED
POPS TO THESE AREAS FOR THAT PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON ZONES. SOME LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS TO THE L.A.
COUNTY COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL VLY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THRU TUE. TEMPS ON TUE WILL TURN WARMER ALONG THE COAST AND
ADJACENT VLYS TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH READINGS STILL
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO SWRN CA ON
TUE WILL BUILD FURTHER ACROSS SRN CA TUE NIGHT AND WED. OFFSHORE
FLOW...LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS
SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS AGAIN...BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NAM WAS FORECASTING A LINGERING EDDY OVER THE
SRN CA BIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LOW CLOUDS TO
THE SRN L.A. COUNTY COAST. OVERALL... THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT AND WED.

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THU.
IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OFFSHORE FLOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...EXCEPT THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK EDDY WITH LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED. THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE MORE TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FRI THRU
SAT WITH UPPER RIDGE LINGERING FRI THEN AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE E PAC ON SAT. THE GFS DOES BRING A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SAT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...
WHILE THE EC IS NOT AS FAST AND HOLDS OFF TIL LATE SAT AND SAT
EVENING. BIGGER DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE
GFS PASSES THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF QUICKLY E SUN WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK IN BY LATE SUN...WHILE EC SLOWS UPPER TROF DOWN AND
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA EARLY SUN WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN MOVES THIS
SYSTEM AWAY SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN MON.
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND TIMING OF DISSIPATING FRONT
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES SUN. SOME
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY COAST NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOME BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SAT THEN INCREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION...20/2330Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2300Z IS 1600 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...MARINE INVERSION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF
LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF ANY CIGS DEVELOPING WOULD BE AT KLAX AND
KLGB LATER TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...20/200 PM...

MADE NUMEROUS CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS PER THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. GENERALLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING FORECAST UNLESS
OTHERWISE STATED. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS WELL. MADE AREA AND TIMING CHANGES
TO THE GALE WATCH FOR TUESDAY SINCE THE GALES ARE NOT LIKELY UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY AND THEY MAY NOT AFFECT THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
THERE IS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE AT BEST FOR THE GALE WATCH WITH MARINE
ZONES 673 AND 676 HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING FREQUENT GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 202149
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER TO THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WITH AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS APPROACHING THE
CENTRAL COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THAT COVERED
MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS THIS MORNING DISSIPATED IN MOST AREAS BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE VTU
COAST AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SOME HI CLOUDS COVERED THE REGION. GUSTY S TO W WINDS WERE
NOTED IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE W THROUGH LATE TODAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INLAND ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL CA TONIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT
DISSIPATES OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS TO THE L.A./VTU MTNS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS
GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS TO THE SBA COUNTY S COAST AND MTNS. IT
LOOKS LIKE GUSTS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT
SHOULD REACH THESE LEVELS AT TIMES BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SBA S COAST. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA FOR THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT. THE DYING COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE TO THE N MTN SLOPES AND INTO THE FAR
SERN VLYS OF SLO COUNTY AND THE CUYAMA VLY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...WITH CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS...AND ADDED
POPS TO THESE AREAS FOR THAT PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON ZONES. SOME LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS TO THE L.A.
COUNTY COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL VLY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THRU TUE. TEMPS ON TUE WILL TURN WARMER ALONG THE COAST AND
ADJACENT VLYS TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH READINGS STILL
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO SWRN CA ON
TUE WILL BUILD FURTHER ACROSS SRN CA TUE NIGHT AND WED. OFFSHORE
FLOW...LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS
SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS AGAIN...BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NAM WAS FORECASTING A LINGERING EDDY OVER THE
SRN CA BIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LOW CLOUDS TO
THE SRN L.A. COUNTY COAST. OVERALL... THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT AND WED.

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THU.
IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OFFSHORE FLOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...EXCEPT THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK EDDY WITH LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED. THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE MORE TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FRI THRU
SAT WITH UPPER RIDGE LINGERING FRI THEN AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE E PAC ON SAT. THE GFS DOES BRING A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SAT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...
WHILE THE EC IS NOT AS FAST AND HOLDS OFF TIL LATE SAT AND SAT
EVENING. BIGGER DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE
GFS PASSES THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF QUICKLY E SUN WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK IN BY LATE SUN...WHILE EC SLOWS UPPER TROF DOWN AND
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA EARLY SUN WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN MOVES THIS
SYSTEM AWAY SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN MON.
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND TIMING OF DISSIPATING FRONT
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES SUN. SOME
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY COAST NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOME BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SAT THEN INCREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1743Z IS 2200 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 4500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VERY COMPLEX PATTERN HAS DELAYED THE
CLEARING THIS MORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL COMPLICATE THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFICULTY IS THE COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE FREQUENT
AMENDMENTS FOR SEVERAL TAF SITES AND SCT TO BKN CONDITIONS.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...20/200 PM...

MADE NUMEROUS CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS PER THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. GENERALLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING FORECAST UNLESS
OTHERWISE STATED. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS WELL. MADE AREA AND TIMING CHANGES
TO THE GALE WATCH FOR TUESDAY SINCE THE GALES ARE NOT LIKELY UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY AND THEY MAY NOT AFFECT THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
THERE IS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE AT BEST FOR THE GALE WATCH WITH MARINE
ZONES 673 AND 676 HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING FREQUENT GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 202149
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER TO THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WITH AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS APPROACHING THE
CENTRAL COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THAT COVERED
MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS THIS MORNING DISSIPATED IN MOST AREAS BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE VTU
COAST AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SOME HI CLOUDS COVERED THE REGION. GUSTY S TO W WINDS WERE
NOTED IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE W THROUGH LATE TODAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INLAND ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL CA TONIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT
DISSIPATES OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS TO THE L.A./VTU MTNS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS
GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS TO THE SBA COUNTY S COAST AND MTNS. IT
LOOKS LIKE GUSTS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT
SHOULD REACH THESE LEVELS AT TIMES BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SBA S COAST. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA FOR THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT. THE DYING COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE TO THE N MTN SLOPES AND INTO THE FAR
SERN VLYS OF SLO COUNTY AND THE CUYAMA VLY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...WITH CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS...AND ADDED
POPS TO THESE AREAS FOR THAT PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON ZONES. SOME LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS TO THE L.A.
COUNTY COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL VLY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THRU TUE. TEMPS ON TUE WILL TURN WARMER ALONG THE COAST AND
ADJACENT VLYS TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH READINGS STILL
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO SWRN CA ON
TUE WILL BUILD FURTHER ACROSS SRN CA TUE NIGHT AND WED. OFFSHORE
FLOW...LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS
SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS AGAIN...BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NAM WAS FORECASTING A LINGERING EDDY OVER THE
SRN CA BIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LOW CLOUDS TO
THE SRN L.A. COUNTY COAST. OVERALL... THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT AND WED.

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THU.
IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OFFSHORE FLOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...EXCEPT THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK EDDY WITH LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED. THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE MORE TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FRI THRU
SAT WITH UPPER RIDGE LINGERING FRI THEN AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE E PAC ON SAT. THE GFS DOES BRING A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SAT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...
WHILE THE EC IS NOT AS FAST AND HOLDS OFF TIL LATE SAT AND SAT
EVENING. BIGGER DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE
GFS PASSES THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF QUICKLY E SUN WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK IN BY LATE SUN...WHILE EC SLOWS UPPER TROF DOWN AND
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA EARLY SUN WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN MOVES THIS
SYSTEM AWAY SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN MON.
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND TIMING OF DISSIPATING FRONT
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES SUN. SOME
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY COAST NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOME BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SAT THEN INCREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1743Z IS 2200 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 4500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VERY COMPLEX PATTERN HAS DELAYED THE
CLEARING THIS MORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL COMPLICATE THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFICULTY IS THE COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE FREQUENT
AMENDMENTS FOR SEVERAL TAF SITES AND SCT TO BKN CONDITIONS.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...20/200 PM...

MADE NUMEROUS CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS PER THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. GENERALLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING FORECAST UNLESS
OTHERWISE STATED. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS WELL. MADE AREA AND TIMING CHANGES
TO THE GALE WATCH FOR TUESDAY SINCE THE GALES ARE NOT LIKELY UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY AND THEY MAY NOT AFFECT THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
THERE IS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE AT BEST FOR THE GALE WATCH WITH MARINE
ZONES 673 AND 676 HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING FREQUENT GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 202149
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER TO THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WITH AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS APPROACHING THE
CENTRAL COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THAT COVERED
MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS THIS MORNING DISSIPATED IN MOST AREAS BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE VTU
COAST AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SOME HI CLOUDS COVERED THE REGION. GUSTY S TO W WINDS WERE
NOTED IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE W THROUGH LATE TODAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INLAND ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL CA TONIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT
DISSIPATES OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS TO THE L.A./VTU MTNS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS
GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS TO THE SBA COUNTY S COAST AND MTNS. IT
LOOKS LIKE GUSTS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT
SHOULD REACH THESE LEVELS AT TIMES BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SBA S COAST. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA FOR THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT. THE DYING COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE TO THE N MTN SLOPES AND INTO THE FAR
SERN VLYS OF SLO COUNTY AND THE CUYAMA VLY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...WITH CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS...AND ADDED
POPS TO THESE AREAS FOR THAT PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON ZONES. SOME LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS TO THE L.A.
COUNTY COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL VLY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THRU TUE. TEMPS ON TUE WILL TURN WARMER ALONG THE COAST AND
ADJACENT VLYS TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH READINGS STILL
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO SWRN CA ON
TUE WILL BUILD FURTHER ACROSS SRN CA TUE NIGHT AND WED. OFFSHORE
FLOW...LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS
SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS AGAIN...BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NAM WAS FORECASTING A LINGERING EDDY OVER THE
SRN CA BIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LOW CLOUDS TO
THE SRN L.A. COUNTY COAST. OVERALL... THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT AND WED.

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THU.
IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OFFSHORE FLOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...EXCEPT THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK EDDY WITH LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED. THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE MORE TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FRI THRU
SAT WITH UPPER RIDGE LINGERING FRI THEN AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE E PAC ON SAT. THE GFS DOES BRING A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SAT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...
WHILE THE EC IS NOT AS FAST AND HOLDS OFF TIL LATE SAT AND SAT
EVENING. BIGGER DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE
GFS PASSES THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF QUICKLY E SUN WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK IN BY LATE SUN...WHILE EC SLOWS UPPER TROF DOWN AND
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA EARLY SUN WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN MOVES THIS
SYSTEM AWAY SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN MON.
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND TIMING OF DISSIPATING FRONT
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES SUN. SOME
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY COAST NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOME BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SAT THEN INCREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1743Z IS 2200 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 4500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VERY COMPLEX PATTERN HAS DELAYED THE
CLEARING THIS MORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL COMPLICATE THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFICULTY IS THE COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE FREQUENT
AMENDMENTS FOR SEVERAL TAF SITES AND SCT TO BKN CONDITIONS.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...20/200 PM...

MADE NUMEROUS CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS PER THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. GENERALLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING FORECAST UNLESS
OTHERWISE STATED. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS WELL. MADE AREA AND TIMING CHANGES
TO THE GALE WATCH FOR TUESDAY SINCE THE GALES ARE NOT LIKELY UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY AND THEY MAY NOT AFFECT THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
THERE IS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE AT BEST FOR THE GALE WATCH WITH MARINE
ZONES 673 AND 676 HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING FREQUENT GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 202149
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER TO THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WITH AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS APPROACHING THE
CENTRAL COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THAT COVERED
MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS THIS MORNING DISSIPATED IN MOST AREAS BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE VTU
COAST AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SOME HI CLOUDS COVERED THE REGION. GUSTY S TO W WINDS WERE
NOTED IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE W THROUGH LATE TODAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INLAND ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL CA TONIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT
DISSIPATES OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS TO THE L.A./VTU MTNS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS
GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS TO THE SBA COUNTY S COAST AND MTNS. IT
LOOKS LIKE GUSTS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT
SHOULD REACH THESE LEVELS AT TIMES BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SBA S COAST. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA FOR THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT. THE DYING COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE TO THE N MTN SLOPES AND INTO THE FAR
SERN VLYS OF SLO COUNTY AND THE CUYAMA VLY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...WITH CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS...AND ADDED
POPS TO THESE AREAS FOR THAT PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON ZONES. SOME LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS TO THE L.A.
COUNTY COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL VLY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THRU TUE. TEMPS ON TUE WILL TURN WARMER ALONG THE COAST AND
ADJACENT VLYS TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH READINGS STILL
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO SWRN CA ON
TUE WILL BUILD FURTHER ACROSS SRN CA TUE NIGHT AND WED. OFFSHORE
FLOW...LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS
SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS AGAIN...BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NAM WAS FORECASTING A LINGERING EDDY OVER THE
SRN CA BIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LOW CLOUDS TO
THE SRN L.A. COUNTY COAST. OVERALL... THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT AND WED.

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THU.
IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OFFSHORE FLOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...EXCEPT THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK EDDY WITH LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED. THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE MORE TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FRI THRU
SAT WITH UPPER RIDGE LINGERING FRI THEN AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE E PAC ON SAT. THE GFS DOES BRING A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SAT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...
WHILE THE EC IS NOT AS FAST AND HOLDS OFF TIL LATE SAT AND SAT
EVENING. BIGGER DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE
GFS PASSES THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF QUICKLY E SUN WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK IN BY LATE SUN...WHILE EC SLOWS UPPER TROF DOWN AND
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA EARLY SUN WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN MOVES THIS
SYSTEM AWAY SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN MON.
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND TIMING OF DISSIPATING FRONT
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES SUN. SOME
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY COAST NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOME BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SAT THEN INCREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1743Z IS 2200 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 4500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VERY COMPLEX PATTERN HAS DELAYED THE
CLEARING THIS MORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL COMPLICATE THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFICULTY IS THE COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE FREQUENT
AMENDMENTS FOR SEVERAL TAF SITES AND SCT TO BKN CONDITIONS.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...20/200 PM...

MADE NUMEROUS CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS PER THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. GENERALLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING FORECAST UNLESS
OTHERWISE STATED. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS WELL. MADE AREA AND TIMING CHANGES
TO THE GALE WATCH FOR TUESDAY SINCE THE GALES ARE NOT LIKELY UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY AND THEY MAY NOT AFFECT THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
THERE IS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE AT BEST FOR THE GALE WATCH WITH MARINE
ZONES 673 AND 676 HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING FREQUENT GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 201852
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1150 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK.
COOLER WEATHER LIKELY RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...THE MARINE INVERSION THIS MORNING RANGED
FROM NEAR 2400 FT DEEP AT LAX TO NEAR 3400 FT DEEP AT VBG. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERED OVER THE SALINAS RIVER VLY...CENTRAL
COAST...AND THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND VLYS AT MID MORNING. THERE
WERE ALSO PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE VTU CST/VLYS. ALL THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THRU THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE W TODAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL QUICKLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL CA TONIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES OVER
SLO/SBA COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY NW WINDS TO THE
L.A./VTU MTNS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS GUSTY NW TO
N CANYON WINDS TO THE SBA COUNTY S COAST AND MTNS. IT LOOKS LIKE
GUSTS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT SHOULD REACH
THESE LEVELS AT TIMES BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE
SBA S COAST ESPECIALLY W OF SBA CITY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA FOR THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT. THE
DYING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE TO THE N MTN SLOPES AND
INTO THE FAR SERN VLYS OF SLO COUNTY AND THE CUYAMA VLY LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...WITH CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS. FOR THE AFTERNOON ZONES WILL LIKELY ADD POPS TO THESE AREAS
FOR THAT PERIOD. SOME LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MARINE
LAYER CLOUDINESS TO THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN
GABRIEL VLY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION THRU TUE. TEMPS ON TUE WILL TURN WARMER ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH
READINGS STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO SWRN CA ON
TUE WILL BUILD FURTHER ACROSS SRN CA TUE NIGHT AND WED. OFFSHORE
FLOW...LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS
SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS AGAIN...BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NAM WAS FORECASTING A LINGERING EDDY OVER THE
SRN CA BIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LOW CLOUDS TO
THE SRN L.A. COUNTY COAST. OVERALL... THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT AND WED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...EXTENDED MDLS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND
ALL INDICATE THAT THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PEAK THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHED TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF
A LARGE UPPER TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE TROF WILL PASS
OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND THEN BY MONDAY A LITTLE RIDGE
WILL POP UP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THURSDAY AND THEN COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY BEFORE
COOLING FAIRLY SHARPLY OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY AWAY THU AND FRI AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY GOOD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING IS THE QUESTION MARK. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR MORNING...BUT FOR SURE NOT A SLAM DUNK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1743Z IS 2200 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 4500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VERY COMPLEX PATTERN HAS DELAYED THE
CLEARING THIS MORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL COMPLICATE THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFICULTY IS THE COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE FREQUENT
AMENDMENTS FOR SEVERAL TAF SITES AND SCT TO BKN CONDITIONS.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...20/900 AM...

MADE NUMEROUS CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS PER THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. GENERALLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING FORECAST UNLESS
OTHERWISE STATED. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS WELL. MADE AREA AND TIMING CHANGES
TO THE GALE WATCH FOR TUESDAY SINCE THE GALES ARE NOT LIKELY UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY AND THEY MAY NOT AFFECT THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
THERE IS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE AT BEST FOR THE GALE WATCH WITH MARINE
ZONES 673 AND 676 HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING FREQUENT GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 201852
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1150 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK.
COOLER WEATHER LIKELY RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...THE MARINE INVERSION THIS MORNING RANGED
FROM NEAR 2400 FT DEEP AT LAX TO NEAR 3400 FT DEEP AT VBG. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERED OVER THE SALINAS RIVER VLY...CENTRAL
COAST...AND THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND VLYS AT MID MORNING. THERE
WERE ALSO PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE VTU CST/VLYS. ALL THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THRU THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE W TODAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL QUICKLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL CA TONIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES OVER
SLO/SBA COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY NW WINDS TO THE
L.A./VTU MTNS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS GUSTY NW TO
N CANYON WINDS TO THE SBA COUNTY S COAST AND MTNS. IT LOOKS LIKE
GUSTS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT SHOULD REACH
THESE LEVELS AT TIMES BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE
SBA S COAST ESPECIALLY W OF SBA CITY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA FOR THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT. THE
DYING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE TO THE N MTN SLOPES AND
INTO THE FAR SERN VLYS OF SLO COUNTY AND THE CUYAMA VLY LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...WITH CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS. FOR THE AFTERNOON ZONES WILL LIKELY ADD POPS TO THESE AREAS
FOR THAT PERIOD. SOME LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MARINE
LAYER CLOUDINESS TO THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN
GABRIEL VLY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION THRU TUE. TEMPS ON TUE WILL TURN WARMER ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH
READINGS STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO SWRN CA ON
TUE WILL BUILD FURTHER ACROSS SRN CA TUE NIGHT AND WED. OFFSHORE
FLOW...LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS
SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS AGAIN...BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NAM WAS FORECASTING A LINGERING EDDY OVER THE
SRN CA BIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LOW CLOUDS TO
THE SRN L.A. COUNTY COAST. OVERALL... THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT AND WED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...EXTENDED MDLS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND
ALL INDICATE THAT THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PEAK THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHED TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF
A LARGE UPPER TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE TROF WILL PASS
OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND THEN BY MONDAY A LITTLE RIDGE
WILL POP UP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THURSDAY AND THEN COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY BEFORE
COOLING FAIRLY SHARPLY OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY AWAY THU AND FRI AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY GOOD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING IS THE QUESTION MARK. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR MORNING...BUT FOR SURE NOT A SLAM DUNK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1743Z IS 2200 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 4500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VERY COMPLEX PATTERN HAS DELAYED THE
CLEARING THIS MORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL COMPLICATE THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFICULTY IS THE COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE FREQUENT
AMENDMENTS FOR SEVERAL TAF SITES AND SCT TO BKN CONDITIONS.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...20/900 AM...

MADE NUMEROUS CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS PER THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. GENERALLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING FORECAST UNLESS
OTHERWISE STATED. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS WELL. MADE AREA AND TIMING CHANGES
TO THE GALE WATCH FOR TUESDAY SINCE THE GALES ARE NOT LIKELY UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY AND THEY MAY NOT AFFECT THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
THERE IS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE AT BEST FOR THE GALE WATCH WITH MARINE
ZONES 673 AND 676 HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING FREQUENT GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 201651
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK.
COOLER WEATHER LIKELY RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...THE MARINE INVERSION THIS MORNING RANGED
FROM NEAR 2400 FT DEEP AT LAX TO NEAR 3400 FT DEEP AT VBG. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERED OVER THE SALINAS RIVER VLY...CENTRAL
COAST...AND THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND VLYS AT MID MORNING. THERE
WERE ALSO PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE VTU CST/VLYS. ALL THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THRU THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE W TODAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL QUICKLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL CA TONIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES OVER
SLO/SBA COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY NW WINDS TO THE
L.A./VTU MTNS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS GUSTY NW TO
N CANYON WINDS TO THE SBA COUNTY S COAST AND MTNS. IT LOOKS LIKE
GUSTS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT SHOULD REACH
THESE LEVELS AT TIMES BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE
SBA S COAST ESPECIALLY W OF SBA CITY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA FOR THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT. THE
DYING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE TO THE N MTN SLOPES AND
INTO THE FAR SERN VLYS OF SLO COUNTY AND THE CUYAMA VLY LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...WITH CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS. FOR THE AFTERNOON ZONES WILL LIKELY ADD POPS TO THESE AREAS
FOR THAT PERIOD. SOME LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MARINE
LAYER CLOUDINESS TO THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN
GABRIEL VLY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION THRU TUE. TEMPS ON TUE WILL TURN WARMER ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH
READINGS STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO SWRN CA ON
TUE WILL BUILD FURTHER ACROSS SRN CA TUE NIGHT AND WED. OFFSHORE
FLOW...LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS
SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS AGAIN...BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NAM WAS FORECASTING A LINGERING EDDY OVER THE
SRN CA BIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LOW CLOUDS TO
THE SRN L.A. COUNTY COAST. OVERALL... THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT AND WED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...EXTENDED MDLS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND
ALL INDICATE THAT THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PEAK THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHED TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF
A LARGE UPPER TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE TROF WILL PASS
OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND THEN BY MONDAY A LITTLE RIDGE
WILL POP UP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THURSDAY AND THEN COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY BEFORE
COOLING FAIRLY SHARPLY OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY AWAY THU AND FRI AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY GOOD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING IS THE QUESTION MARK. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR MORNING...BUT FOR SURE NOT A SLAM DUNK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1120Z IS 2000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS PRIMARILY DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MARINE LAYER LOCATION... TIMING... AND
INTENSITY THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF
UNCERTAINTY.  THE MARINE INTRUSION APPEARS TO HAVE COME IN SOLIDLY
AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.  PARTIAL
OVERALL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND
MOST LOCATIONS WILL CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND DIMINISHED
VISIBILITY BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.  THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING ENOUGH COLD DRY AIR TO
NOTABLY REDUCE THE MARINE INTRUSION TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PRIMARILY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MARINE LAYER TIMING AND INTENSITY THOUGH THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY.  THE
MARINE INTRUSION HAS COME IN SOLIDLY AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.  PARTIAL OVERALL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.  THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY AND BRING ENOUGH COLD DRY AIR TO NOTABLY REDUCE THE
MARINE INTRUSION TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH EFFECTS WILL BE REDUCED AS
FAR SOUTH AS LOS ANGELES COUNTY SO KLAX SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PRIMARILY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MARINE LAYER TIMING AND INTENSITY THOUGH THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY.  THE
MARINE INTRUSION HAS COME IN SOLIDLY AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
THE MID MORNING HOURS.  PARTIAL OVERALL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BUT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.  THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY AND BRING ENOUGH COLD DRY AIR TO NOTABLY REDUCE THE
MARINE INTRUSION TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH EFFECTS WILL BE REDUCED AS
FAR SOUTH AS LOS ANGELES COUNTY SO KBUR SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...20/900 AM...

MADE NUMEROUS CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS PER THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. GENERALLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING FORECAST UNLESS
OTHERWISE STATED. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS WELL. MADE AREA AND TIMING CHANGES
TO THE GALE WATCH FOR TUESDAY SINCE THE GALES ARE NOT LIKELY UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY AND THEY MAY NOT AFFECT THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
THERE IS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE AT BEST FOR THE GALE WATCH WITH MARINE
ZONES 673 AND 676 HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING FREQUENT GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 201651
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK.
COOLER WEATHER LIKELY RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...THE MARINE INVERSION THIS MORNING RANGED
FROM NEAR 2400 FT DEEP AT LAX TO NEAR 3400 FT DEEP AT VBG. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERED OVER THE SALINAS RIVER VLY...CENTRAL
COAST...AND THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND VLYS AT MID MORNING. THERE
WERE ALSO PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE VTU CST/VLYS. ALL THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THRU THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE W TODAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL QUICKLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL CA TONIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES OVER
SLO/SBA COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY NW WINDS TO THE
L.A./VTU MTNS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS GUSTY NW TO
N CANYON WINDS TO THE SBA COUNTY S COAST AND MTNS. IT LOOKS LIKE
GUSTS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT SHOULD REACH
THESE LEVELS AT TIMES BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE
SBA S COAST ESPECIALLY W OF SBA CITY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA FOR THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT. THE
DYING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE TO THE N MTN SLOPES AND
INTO THE FAR SERN VLYS OF SLO COUNTY AND THE CUYAMA VLY LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...WITH CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS. FOR THE AFTERNOON ZONES WILL LIKELY ADD POPS TO THESE AREAS
FOR THAT PERIOD. SOME LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MARINE
LAYER CLOUDINESS TO THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN
GABRIEL VLY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION THRU TUE. TEMPS ON TUE WILL TURN WARMER ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH
READINGS STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO SWRN CA ON
TUE WILL BUILD FURTHER ACROSS SRN CA TUE NIGHT AND WED. OFFSHORE
FLOW...LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS
SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS AGAIN...BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NAM WAS FORECASTING A LINGERING EDDY OVER THE
SRN CA BIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LOW CLOUDS TO
THE SRN L.A. COUNTY COAST. OVERALL... THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT AND WED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...EXTENDED MDLS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND
ALL INDICATE THAT THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PEAK THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHED TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF
A LARGE UPPER TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE TROF WILL PASS
OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND THEN BY MONDAY A LITTLE RIDGE
WILL POP UP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THURSDAY AND THEN COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY BEFORE
COOLING FAIRLY SHARPLY OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY AWAY THU AND FRI AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY GOOD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING IS THE QUESTION MARK. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR MORNING...BUT FOR SURE NOT A SLAM DUNK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1120Z IS 2000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS PRIMARILY DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MARINE LAYER LOCATION... TIMING... AND
INTENSITY THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF
UNCERTAINTY.  THE MARINE INTRUSION APPEARS TO HAVE COME IN SOLIDLY
AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.  PARTIAL
OVERALL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND
MOST LOCATIONS WILL CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND DIMINISHED
VISIBILITY BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.  THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING ENOUGH COLD DRY AIR TO
NOTABLY REDUCE THE MARINE INTRUSION TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PRIMARILY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MARINE LAYER TIMING AND INTENSITY THOUGH THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY.  THE
MARINE INTRUSION HAS COME IN SOLIDLY AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.  PARTIAL OVERALL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.  THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY AND BRING ENOUGH COLD DRY AIR TO NOTABLY REDUCE THE
MARINE INTRUSION TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH EFFECTS WILL BE REDUCED AS
FAR SOUTH AS LOS ANGELES COUNTY SO KLAX SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PRIMARILY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MARINE LAYER TIMING AND INTENSITY THOUGH THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY.  THE
MARINE INTRUSION HAS COME IN SOLIDLY AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
THE MID MORNING HOURS.  PARTIAL OVERALL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BUT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.  THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY AND BRING ENOUGH COLD DRY AIR TO NOTABLY REDUCE THE
MARINE INTRUSION TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH EFFECTS WILL BE REDUCED AS
FAR SOUTH AS LOS ANGELES COUNTY SO KBUR SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...20/900 AM...

MADE NUMEROUS CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS PER THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. GENERALLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING FORECAST UNLESS
OTHERWISE STATED. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS WELL. MADE AREA AND TIMING CHANGES
TO THE GALE WATCH FOR TUESDAY SINCE THE GALES ARE NOT LIKELY UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY AND THEY MAY NOT AFFECT THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
THERE IS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE AT BEST FOR THE GALE WATCH WITH MARINE
ZONES 673 AND 676 HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING FREQUENT GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 201210
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK.
COOLER WEATHER LIKELY RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
MARINE LAYER IS 1800 DEEP. THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS STRENGTHEN OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS. GRADIENTS ARE ONSHORE AND TRENDING ONSHORE. A
WEAK SFC FRONT AND ITS PARENT TROF ARE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. ALL OF THIS SHOULD ADD UP TO A DECENT STRATUS EVENT. CURRENTLY
HOWEVER THIS HAS ONLY HAPPENED ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION THE CLOUDS ARE MUCH MORE DISORGANIZED. OVER THE
PAST HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FINALLY
BLOSSOMING AND EXPECT MOST COASTAL AND VLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS BY SUNRISE. THE MARINE LAYER IS TOO THIN TO SUPPORT
DRIZZLE AND REMOVED THAT FROM THE CENTRAL COAST FORECAST. SKIES WILL
TURN PARTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WASH OUT
OVERHEAD. HGTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE SO IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY TONIGHT AND COOLER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A LOW END NORTH WIND EVENT
WITH THE SBA SOUTH COAST...THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE LAKE CASITAS
REGION ALL SEEING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THERE WILL BE A FEW
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS EVENT WILL FALL JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THE COOL AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL WIPE OUT THE INVERSION AND THUS NO LOW CLOUDS
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. THE NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION CLOUD FREE BUT THE LONG BEACH AREA SHOULD
BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE WINDS TO ALLOW FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS THERE.

A SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY TUESDAY AS THE TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THE INTERIOR REGIONS WILL COOL DUE TO LOWER HGTS BUT THE MORNING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING ACROSS THE COASTS AND
VLYS. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE SOME DECENT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH
WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY IN THE MTNS AND THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY AS WELL.

MORE NORTH WINDS ON TAP TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ONLY CHANGE IS THAT THE SBA SUNDOWNER WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE FOCUSED ON MONTECITO RATHER THAN GAVIOTA.

THE BAREST OF RIDGES POPS UP ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION LOW CLOUD FREE. MAX TEMPS WILL BUMP UP EVERYWHERE
SAVE FOR THE CENTRAL COAST WHICH WILL SEE TEMPS SIMILAR TO TUESDAYS
READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
EXTENDED MDLS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND ALL INDICATE THAT THE
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PEAK THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHED TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF A LARGE UPPER TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE TROF WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE WEEKEND AND THEN BY MONDAY A LITTLE RIDGE WILL POP UP AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THURSDAY AND THEN COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY BEFORE
COOLING FAIRLY SHARPLY OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY AWAY THU AND FRI AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY GOOD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING IS THE QUESTION MARK. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR MORNING...BUT FOR SURE NOT A SLAM DUNK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1120Z IS 2000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS PRIMARILY DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MARINE LAYER LOCATION... TIMING... AND
INTENSITY THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF
UNCERTAINTY.  THE MARINE INTRUSION APPEARS TO HAVE COME IN SOLIDLY
AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.  PARTIAL
OVERALL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND
MOST LOCATIONS WILL CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND DIMINISHED
VISIBILITY BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.  THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING ENOUGH COLD DRY AIR TO
NOTABLY REDUCE THE MARINE INTRUSION TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PRIMARILY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MARINE LAYER TIMING AND INTENSITY THOUGH THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY.  THE
MARINE INTRUSION HAS COME IN SOLIDLY AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.  PARTIAL OVERALL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.  THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY AND BRING ENOUGH COLD DRY AIR TO NOTABLY REDUCE THE
MARINE INTRUSION TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH EFFECTS WILL BE REDUCED AS
FAR SOUTH AS LOS ANGELES COUNTY SO KLAX SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PRIMARILY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MARINE LAYER TIMING AND INTENSITY THOUGH THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY.  THE
MARINE INTRUSION HAS COME IN SOLIDLY AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
THE MID MORNING HOURS.  PARTIAL OVERALL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BUT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.  THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY AND BRING ENOUGH COLD DRY AIR TO NOTABLY REDUCE THE
MARINE INTRUSION TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH EFFECTS WILL BE REDUCED AS
FAR SOUTH AS LOS ANGELES COUNTY SO KBUR SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...20/330 AM...

LARGE NORTHWEST SWELLS AND MODERATELY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.  BOTH SWELLS AND
WINDS WILL REACH AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE OUTER
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
GALE WARNING.  FOR NOW THIS IS ADDRESSED BY A GALE WATCH AS IT
IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR A GALE WARNING WILL
BE NEEDED.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HIGH SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE INNER WATERS OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND IS VALID BEGINNING
TONIGHT.  ELEVATED SWELLS AND WINDS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 201210
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK.
COOLER WEATHER LIKELY RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
MARINE LAYER IS 1800 DEEP. THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS STRENGTHEN OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS. GRADIENTS ARE ONSHORE AND TRENDING ONSHORE. A
WEAK SFC FRONT AND ITS PARENT TROF ARE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. ALL OF THIS SHOULD ADD UP TO A DECENT STRATUS EVENT. CURRENTLY
HOWEVER THIS HAS ONLY HAPPENED ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION THE CLOUDS ARE MUCH MORE DISORGANIZED. OVER THE
PAST HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FINALLY
BLOSSOMING AND EXPECT MOST COASTAL AND VLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS BY SUNRISE. THE MARINE LAYER IS TOO THIN TO SUPPORT
DRIZZLE AND REMOVED THAT FROM THE CENTRAL COAST FORECAST. SKIES WILL
TURN PARTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WASH OUT
OVERHEAD. HGTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE SO IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY TONIGHT AND COOLER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A LOW END NORTH WIND EVENT
WITH THE SBA SOUTH COAST...THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE LAKE CASITAS
REGION ALL SEEING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THERE WILL BE A FEW
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS EVENT WILL FALL JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THE COOL AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL WIPE OUT THE INVERSION AND THUS NO LOW CLOUDS
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. THE NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION CLOUD FREE BUT THE LONG BEACH AREA SHOULD
BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE WINDS TO ALLOW FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS THERE.

A SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY TUESDAY AS THE TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THE INTERIOR REGIONS WILL COOL DUE TO LOWER HGTS BUT THE MORNING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING ACROSS THE COASTS AND
VLYS. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE SOME DECENT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH
WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY IN THE MTNS AND THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY AS WELL.

MORE NORTH WINDS ON TAP TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ONLY CHANGE IS THAT THE SBA SUNDOWNER WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE FOCUSED ON MONTECITO RATHER THAN GAVIOTA.

THE BAREST OF RIDGES POPS UP ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION LOW CLOUD FREE. MAX TEMPS WILL BUMP UP EVERYWHERE
SAVE FOR THE CENTRAL COAST WHICH WILL SEE TEMPS SIMILAR TO TUESDAYS
READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
EXTENDED MDLS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND ALL INDICATE THAT THE
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PEAK THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHED TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF A LARGE UPPER TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE TROF WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE WEEKEND AND THEN BY MONDAY A LITTLE RIDGE WILL POP UP AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THURSDAY AND THEN COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY BEFORE
COOLING FAIRLY SHARPLY OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY AWAY THU AND FRI AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY GOOD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING IS THE QUESTION MARK. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR MORNING...BUT FOR SURE NOT A SLAM DUNK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1120Z IS 2000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS PRIMARILY DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MARINE LAYER LOCATION... TIMING... AND
INTENSITY THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF
UNCERTAINTY.  THE MARINE INTRUSION APPEARS TO HAVE COME IN SOLIDLY
AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.  PARTIAL
OVERALL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND
MOST LOCATIONS WILL CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND DIMINISHED
VISIBILITY BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.  THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING ENOUGH COLD DRY AIR TO
NOTABLY REDUCE THE MARINE INTRUSION TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PRIMARILY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MARINE LAYER TIMING AND INTENSITY THOUGH THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY.  THE
MARINE INTRUSION HAS COME IN SOLIDLY AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.  PARTIAL OVERALL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.  THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY AND BRING ENOUGH COLD DRY AIR TO NOTABLY REDUCE THE
MARINE INTRUSION TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH EFFECTS WILL BE REDUCED AS
FAR SOUTH AS LOS ANGELES COUNTY SO KLAX SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PRIMARILY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MARINE LAYER TIMING AND INTENSITY THOUGH THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY.  THE
MARINE INTRUSION HAS COME IN SOLIDLY AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
THE MID MORNING HOURS.  PARTIAL OVERALL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BUT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.  THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY AND BRING ENOUGH COLD DRY AIR TO NOTABLY REDUCE THE
MARINE INTRUSION TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH EFFECTS WILL BE REDUCED AS
FAR SOUTH AS LOS ANGELES COUNTY SO KBUR SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...20/330 AM...

LARGE NORTHWEST SWELLS AND MODERATELY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.  BOTH SWELLS AND
WINDS WILL REACH AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE OUTER
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
GALE WARNING.  FOR NOW THIS IS ADDRESSED BY A GALE WATCH AS IT
IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR A GALE WARNING WILL
BE NEEDED.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HIGH SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE INNER WATERS OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND IS VALID BEGINNING
TONIGHT.  ELEVATED SWELLS AND WINDS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 201109
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

...MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK.
COOLER WEATHER LIKELY RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
MARINE LAYER IS 1800 DEEP. THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS STRENGTHEN OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS. GRADIENTS ARE ONSHORE AND TRENDING ONSHORE. A
WEAK SFC FRONT AND ITS PARENT TROF ARE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. ALL OF THIS SHOULD ADD UP TO A DECENT STRATUS EVENT. CURRENTLY
HOWEVER THIS HAS ONLY HAPPENED ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION THE CLOUDS ARE MUCH MORE DISORGANIZED. OVER THE
PAST HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FINALLY
BLOSSOMING AND EXPECT MOST COASTAL AND VLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS BY SUNRISE. THE MARINE LAYER IS TOO THIN TO SUPPORT
DRIZZLE AND REMOVED THAT FROM THE CENTRAL COAST FORECAST. SKIES WILL
TURN PARTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WASH OUT
OVERHEAD. HGTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE SO IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY TONIGHT AND COOLER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A LOW END NORTH WIND EVENT
WITH THE SBA SOUTH COAST...THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE LAKE CASITAS
REGION ALL SEEING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THERE WILL BE A FEW
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS EVENT WILL FALL JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THE COOL AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL WIPE OUT THE INVERSION AND THUS NO LOW CLOUDS
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. THE NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION CLOUD FREE BUT THE LONG BEACH AREA SHOULD
BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE WINDS TO ALLOW FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS THERE.

A SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY TUESDAY AS THE TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THE INTERIOR REGIONS WILL COOL DUE TO LOWER HGTS BUT THE MORNING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING ACROSS THE COASTS AND
VLYS. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE SOME DECENT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH
WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY IN THE MTNS AND THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY AS WELL.

MORE NORTH WINDS ON TAP TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ONLY CHANGE IS THAT THE SBA SUNDOWNER WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE FOCUSED ON MONTECITO RATHER THAN GAVIOTA.

THE BAREST OF RIDGES POPS UP ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION LOW CLOUD FREE. MAX TEMPS WILL BUMP UP EVERYWHERE
SAVE FOR THE CENTRAL COAST WHICH WILL SEE TEMPS SIMILAR TO TUESDAYS
READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
EXTENDED MDLS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND ALL INDICATE THAT THE
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PEAK THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHED TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF A LARGE UPPER TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE TROF WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE WEEKEND AND THEN BY MONDAY A LITTLE RIDGE WILL POP UP AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THURSDAY AND THEN COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY BEFORE
COOLING FAIRLY SHARPLY OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY AWAY THU AND FRI AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY GOOD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING IS THE QUESTION MARK. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR MORNING...BUT FOR SURE NOT A SLAM DUNK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/06Z...

MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX AT 0515Z... 1800 FEET WITH A WEAK
INVERSION IN PLACE. INVERSION TOP IS AT 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 20 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MARINE LAYER LOCATION... TIMING... AND
INTENSITY.  THE INVERSION ON THE KLAX SOUNDING REMAINS WEAK AND THE
INVERSION ON THE KVBG SOUNDING IS NOT MUCH STRONGER.  THESE ARE
BETTER CONDITIONS FOR A MARINE INTRUSION AT COASTAL AND ADJACENT
INLAND SITES THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT STILL A CONCERN FOR
DEVELOPING AND KEEPING LOW CIGS IN THE TAFS.  A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ALONG THE COAST SO WILL GO WITH IT AGAIN
TONIGHT BUT THERE IS A FORTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE CIGS WOULD
LIFT BY DAYBREAK AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION/S.  ANOTHER CHANCE AT A
MARINE INTRUSION AGAIN THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.  OTHERWISE AND
ELSEWHERE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE MARINE LAYER TIMING AND INTENSITY.  THE INVERSION ON THE
KLAX SOUNDING REMAINS WEAK AND THE INVERSION ON THE KVBG SOUNDING IS
NOT MUCH STRONGER.  THESE ARE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR A MARINE
INTRUSION THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT STILL A CONCERN FOR
DEVELOPING AND KEEPING LOW CIGS IN THE TAF.  A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ALONG THE COAST IN GENERAL SO WILL GO WITH IT
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THERE IS A FORTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE CIGS
WOULD LIFT BY DAYBREAK.  ANOTHER CHANCE AT A MARINE INTRUSION AGAIN
THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.  OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE MARINE LAYER TIMING AND INTENSITY.  THE INVERSION ON THE
KLAX SOUNDING REMAINS WEAK AND THE INVERSION ON THE KVBG SOUNDING IS
NOT MUCH STRONGER.  THESE ARE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR A MARINE
INTRUSION THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT STILL A CONCERN FOR
DEVELOPING AND KEEPING LOW CIGS IN THE TAF.  A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ALONG THE COAST IN GENERAL SO WILL GO WITH IT
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THERE IS A FORTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT ANY CIGS
THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIFT BY DAYBREAK.  ANOTHER CHANCE AT A MARINE
INTRUSION AGAIN THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.  OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...20/330 AM...

LARGE NORTHWEST SWELLS AND MODERATELY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.  BOTH SWELLS AND
WINDS WILL REACH AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE OUTER
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
GALE WARNING.  FOR NOW THIS IS ADDRESSED BY A GALE WATCH AS IT
IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR A GALE WARNING WILL
BE NEEDED.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HIGH SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE INNER WATERS OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND IS VALID BEGINNING
TONIGHT.  ELEVATED SWELLS AND WINDS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 201047
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK.
COOLER WEATHER LIKELY RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
MARINE LAYER IS 1800 DEEP. THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS STRENGTHEN OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS. GRADIENTS ARE ONSHORE AND TRENDING ONSHORE. A
WEAK SFC FRONT AND ITS PARENT TROF ARE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. ALL OF THIS SHOULD ADD UP TO A DECENT STRATUS EVENT. CURRENTLY
HOWEVER THIS HAS ONLY HAPPENED ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION THE CLOUDS ARE MUCH MORE DISORGANIZED. OVER THE
PAST HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FINALLY
BLOSSOMING AND EXPECT MOST COASTAL AND VLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS BY SUNRISE. THE MARINE LAYER IS TOO THIN TO SUPPORT
DRIZZLE AND REMOVED THAT FROM THE CENTRAL COAST FORECAST. SKIES WILL
TURN PARTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WASH OUT
OVERHEAD. HGTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE SO IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY TONIGHT AND COOLER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A LOW END NORTH WIND EVENT
WITH THE SBA SOUTH COAST...THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE LAKE CASITAS
REGION ALL SEEING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THERE WILL BE A FEW
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS EVENT WILL FALL JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THE COOL AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL WIPE OUT THE INVERSION AND THUS NO LOW CLOUDS
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. THE NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION CLOUD FREE BUT THE LONG BEACH AREA SHOULD
BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE WINDS TO ALLOW FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS THERE.

A SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY TUESDAY AS THE TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THE INTERIOR REGIONS WILL COOL DUE TO LOWER HGTS BUT THE MORNING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING ACROSS THE COASTS AND
VLYS. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE SOME DECENT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH
WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY IN THE MTNS AND THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY AS WELL.

MORE NORTH WINDS ON TAP TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ONLY CHANGE IS THAT THE SBA SUNDOWNER WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE FOCUSED ON MONTECITO RATHER THAN GAVIOTA.

THE BAREST OF RIDGES POPS UP ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION LOW CLOUD FREE. MAX TEMPS WILL BUMP UP EVERYWHERE
SAVE FOR THE CENTRAL COAST WHICH WILL SEE TEMPS SIMILAR TO TUESDAYS
READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
EXTENDED MDLS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND ALL INDICATE THAT THE
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PEAK THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHED TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF A LARGE UPPER TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE TROF WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE WEEKEND AND THEN BY MONDAY A LITTLE RIDGE WILL POP UP AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THURSDAY AND THEN COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY BEFORE
COOLING FAIRLY SHARPLY OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY AWAY THU AND FRI AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY GOOD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING IS THE QUESTION MARK. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR MORNING...BUT FOR SURE NOT A SLAM DUNK.

&&

.AVIATION...

20/06Z...

MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX AT 0515Z... 1800 FEET WITH A WEAK
INVERSION IN PLACE. INVERSION TOP IS AT 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 20 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MARINE LAYER LOCATION... TIMING... AND
INTENSITY.  THE INVERSION ON THE KLAX SOUNDING REMAINS WEAK AND THE
INVERSION ON THE KVBG SOUNDING IS NOT MUCH STRONGER.  THESE ARE
BETTER CONDITIONS FOR A MARINE INTRUSION AT COASTAL AND ADJACENT
INLAND SITES THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT STILL A CONCERN FOR
DEVELOPING AND KEEPING LOW CIGS IN THE TAFS.  A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ALONG THE COAST SO WILL GO WITH IT AGAIN
TONIGHT BUT THERE IS A FORTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE CIGS WOULD
LIFT BY DAYBREAK AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION/S.  ANOTHER CHANCE AT A
MARINE INTRUSION AGAIN THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.  OTHERWISE AND
ELSEWHERE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE MARINE LAYER TIMING AND INTENSITY.  THE INVERSION ON THE
KLAX SOUNDING REMAINS WEAK AND THE INVERSION ON THE KVBG SOUNDING IS
NOT MUCH STRONGER.  THESE ARE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR A MARINE
INTRUSION THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT STILL A CONCERN FOR
DEVELOPING AND KEEPING LOW CIGS IN THE TAF.  A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ALONG THE COAST IN GENERAL SO WILL GO WITH IT
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THERE IS A FORTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE CIGS
WOULD LIFT BY DAYBREAK.  ANOTHER CHANCE AT A MARINE INTRUSION AGAIN
THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.  OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE MARINE LAYER TIMING AND INTENSITY.  THE INVERSION ON THE
KLAX SOUNDING REMAINS WEAK AND THE INVERSION ON THE KVBG SOUNDING IS
NOT MUCH STRONGER.  THESE ARE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR A MARINE
INTRUSION THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT STILL A CONCERN FOR
DEVELOPING AND KEEPING LOW CIGS IN THE TAF.  A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ALONG THE COAST IN GENERAL SO WILL GO WITH IT
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THERE IS A FORTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT ANY CIGS
THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIFT BY DAYBREAK.  ANOTHER CHANCE AT A MARINE
INTRUSION AGAIN THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.  OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...19/800 PM...

WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS. AS A
RESULT...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE GALES WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM POINT SAL TO SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND. SWELLS WITHIN 285-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST WILL BUILD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LOCALLY
GENERATED SEAS AND DISTANT ARRIVING SWELLS WILL COMBINE AND CREATE
HAZARDOUS SEAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 201047
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK.
COOLER WEATHER LIKELY RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
MARINE LAYER IS 1800 DEEP. THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS STRENGTHEN OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS. GRADIENTS ARE ONSHORE AND TRENDING ONSHORE. A
WEAK SFC FRONT AND ITS PARENT TROF ARE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. ALL OF THIS SHOULD ADD UP TO A DECENT STRATUS EVENT. CURRENTLY
HOWEVER THIS HAS ONLY HAPPENED ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION THE CLOUDS ARE MUCH MORE DISORGANIZED. OVER THE
PAST HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FINALLY
BLOSSOMING AND EXPECT MOST COASTAL AND VLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS BY SUNRISE. THE MARINE LAYER IS TOO THIN TO SUPPORT
DRIZZLE AND REMOVED THAT FROM THE CENTRAL COAST FORECAST. SKIES WILL
TURN PARTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WASH OUT
OVERHEAD. HGTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE SO IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY TONIGHT AND COOLER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A LOW END NORTH WIND EVENT
WITH THE SBA SOUTH COAST...THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE LAKE CASITAS
REGION ALL SEEING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THERE WILL BE A FEW
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS EVENT WILL FALL JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THE COOL AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL WIPE OUT THE INVERSION AND THUS NO LOW CLOUDS
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. THE NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION CLOUD FREE BUT THE LONG BEACH AREA SHOULD
BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE WINDS TO ALLOW FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS THERE.

A SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY TUESDAY AS THE TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THE INTERIOR REGIONS WILL COOL DUE TO LOWER HGTS BUT THE MORNING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING ACROSS THE COASTS AND
VLYS. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE SOME DECENT NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH
WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY IN THE MTNS AND THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY AS WELL.

MORE NORTH WINDS ON TAP TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ONLY CHANGE IS THAT THE SBA SUNDOWNER WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE FOCUSED ON MONTECITO RATHER THAN GAVIOTA.

THE BAREST OF RIDGES POPS UP ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION LOW CLOUD FREE. MAX TEMPS WILL BUMP UP EVERYWHERE
SAVE FOR THE CENTRAL COAST WHICH WILL SEE TEMPS SIMILAR TO TUESDAYS
READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
EXTENDED MDLS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND ALL INDICATE THAT THE
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PEAK THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHED TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF A LARGE UPPER TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE TROF WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE WEEKEND AND THEN BY MONDAY A LITTLE RIDGE WILL POP UP AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THURSDAY AND THEN COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY BEFORE
COOLING FAIRLY SHARPLY OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY AWAY THU AND FRI AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY GOOD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING IS THE QUESTION MARK. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR MORNING...BUT FOR SURE NOT A SLAM DUNK.

&&

.AVIATION...

20/06Z...

MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX AT 0515Z... 1800 FEET WITH A WEAK
INVERSION IN PLACE. INVERSION TOP IS AT 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 20 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MARINE LAYER LOCATION... TIMING... AND
INTENSITY.  THE INVERSION ON THE KLAX SOUNDING REMAINS WEAK AND THE
INVERSION ON THE KVBG SOUNDING IS NOT MUCH STRONGER.  THESE ARE
BETTER CONDITIONS FOR A MARINE INTRUSION AT COASTAL AND ADJACENT
INLAND SITES THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT STILL A CONCERN FOR
DEVELOPING AND KEEPING LOW CIGS IN THE TAFS.  A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ALONG THE COAST SO WILL GO WITH IT AGAIN
TONIGHT BUT THERE IS A FORTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE CIGS WOULD
LIFT BY DAYBREAK AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION/S.  ANOTHER CHANCE AT A
MARINE INTRUSION AGAIN THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.  OTHERWISE AND
ELSEWHERE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE MARINE LAYER TIMING AND INTENSITY.  THE INVERSION ON THE
KLAX SOUNDING REMAINS WEAK AND THE INVERSION ON THE KVBG SOUNDING IS
NOT MUCH STRONGER.  THESE ARE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR A MARINE
INTRUSION THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT STILL A CONCERN FOR
DEVELOPING AND KEEPING LOW CIGS IN THE TAF.  A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ALONG THE COAST IN GENERAL SO WILL GO WITH IT
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THERE IS A FORTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE CIGS
WOULD LIFT BY DAYBREAK.  ANOTHER CHANCE AT A MARINE INTRUSION AGAIN
THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.  OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE MARINE LAYER TIMING AND INTENSITY.  THE INVERSION ON THE
KLAX SOUNDING REMAINS WEAK AND THE INVERSION ON THE KVBG SOUNDING IS
NOT MUCH STRONGER.  THESE ARE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR A MARINE
INTRUSION THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT STILL A CONCERN FOR
DEVELOPING AND KEEPING LOW CIGS IN THE TAF.  A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ALONG THE COAST IN GENERAL SO WILL GO WITH IT
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THERE IS A FORTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT ANY CIGS
THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIFT BY DAYBREAK.  ANOTHER CHANCE AT A MARINE
INTRUSION AGAIN THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.  OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...19/800 PM...

WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS. AS A
RESULT...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE GALES WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM POINT SAL TO SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND. SWELLS WITHIN 285-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST WILL BUILD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LOCALLY
GENERATED SEAS AND DISTANT ARRIVING SWELLS WILL COMBINE AND CREATE
HAZARDOUS SEAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







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