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000
FXUS66 KLOX 181136
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
335 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA THIS MORNING. ON FRIDAY...YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH
THE AREA...BUT ANY CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
NORTHERN SECTIONS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...WEAK SHORT WAVE IS DIVING DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA...GENERATING SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. PRETTY
MUCH EVERYWHERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME LIQUID HITTING THE GROUND
THIS MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
ALL AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD
IN...AND PRECIP THREAT SHOULD END.

FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE...AND GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES. SO...FOR THESE AREAS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WORK THEIR WAY DOWN
TO VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ENDING THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIP FOR THE AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH MOST AREAS AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AND RATHER
BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL PEAK IN STRENGTH ON
MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE
SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...NORTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
THEN TURNING MORE NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

WITH THIS PATTERN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A NICE WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
COOL SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT BY TUESDAY...MOST COASTAL/VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...THERE MAY BE SOME DECENTLY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE (POSSIBLY REACHING LOW
END ADVISORY CRITERIA). OTHERWISE...ANY OFFSHORE WINDS THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1130Z.

THERE IS NO INVERSION NEAR KLAX AT 1130Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL REACH LA COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. KEPT MOST SITES IFR OTHER THAN KSBP
AND KSMX FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A 20-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS OR VISBY PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. COASTAL SITES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VISBY
14-18Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT THAT MOST LIKELY WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...18/0230 AM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO SCA WINDS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. THE MARGINAL SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 3PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TWO NORTHERN OUTER
WATER ZONES...AS SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW 10 FEET. LOCAL 10
FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PZZ645 AND
PZZ676. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT A LARGE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
ENTER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND PZZ645 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES AT HARBOR ENTRANCES ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...NAMELY MORRO BAY HARBOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 181136
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
335 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA THIS MORNING. ON FRIDAY...YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH
THE AREA...BUT ANY CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
NORTHERN SECTIONS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...WEAK SHORT WAVE IS DIVING DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA...GENERATING SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. PRETTY
MUCH EVERYWHERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME LIQUID HITTING THE GROUND
THIS MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
ALL AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD
IN...AND PRECIP THREAT SHOULD END.

FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE...AND GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES. SO...FOR THESE AREAS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WORK THEIR WAY DOWN
TO VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ENDING THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIP FOR THE AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH MOST AREAS AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AND RATHER
BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL PEAK IN STRENGTH ON
MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE
SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...NORTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
THEN TURNING MORE NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

WITH THIS PATTERN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A NICE WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
COOL SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT BY TUESDAY...MOST COASTAL/VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...THERE MAY BE SOME DECENTLY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE (POSSIBLY REACHING LOW
END ADVISORY CRITERIA). OTHERWISE...ANY OFFSHORE WINDS THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1130Z.

THERE IS NO INVERSION NEAR KLAX AT 1130Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL REACH LA COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. KEPT MOST SITES IFR OTHER THAN KSBP
AND KSMX FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A 20-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS OR VISBY PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. COASTAL SITES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VISBY
14-18Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT THAT MOST LIKELY WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...18/0230 AM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO SCA WINDS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. THE MARGINAL SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 3PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TWO NORTHERN OUTER
WATER ZONES...AS SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW 10 FEET. LOCAL 10
FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PZZ645 AND
PZZ676. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT A LARGE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
ENTER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND PZZ645 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES AT HARBOR ENTRANCES ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...NAMELY MORRO BAY HARBOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 181048
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
245 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED MARINE SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA THIS MORNING. ON FRIDAY...YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH
THE AREA...BUT ANY CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
NORTHERN SECTIONS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...WEAK SHORT WAVE IS DIVING DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA...GENERATING SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. PRETTY
MUCH EVERYWHERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME LIQUID HITTING THE GROUND
THIS MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
ALL AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD
IN...AND PRECIP THREAT SHOULD END.

FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE...AND GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES. SO...FOR THESE AREAS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WORK THEIR WAY DOWN
TO VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ENDING THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIP FOR THE AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH MOST AREAS AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AND RATHER
BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL PEAK IN STRENGTH ON
MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE
SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...NORTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
THEN TURNING MORE NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

WITH THIS PATTERN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A NICE WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
COOL SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT BY TUESDAY...MOST COASTAL/VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...THERE MAY BE SOME DECENTLY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE (POSSIBLY REACHING LOW
END ADVISORY CRITERIA). OTHERWISE...ANY OFFSHORE WINDS THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...18/0600Z.

THERE IS NO INVERSION NEAR KLAX AT 06Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. A WEAK FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH SLO AND SBA COUNTIES AT
THIS HOUR. SHOWERS WILL REACH LA COUNTY BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. KEPT
ALL SITES IN IFR...BUT THERE IS A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
OR VSBY PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE. COASTAL SITES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY
12-18Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT THAT MOST LIKELY WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...18/0230 AM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO SCA WINDS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. THE MARGINAL SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 3PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TWO NORTHERN OUTER
WATER ZONES...AS SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW 10 FEET. LOCAL 10
FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PZZ645 AND
PZZ676. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT A LARGE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
ENTER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND PZZ645 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES AT HARBOR ENTRANCES ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...NAMELY MORRO BAY HARBOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 181048
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
245 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED MARINE SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA THIS MORNING. ON FRIDAY...YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH
THE AREA...BUT ANY CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
NORTHERN SECTIONS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...WEAK SHORT WAVE IS DIVING DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA...GENERATING SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. PRETTY
MUCH EVERYWHERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME LIQUID HITTING THE GROUND
THIS MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
ALL AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD
IN...AND PRECIP THREAT SHOULD END.

FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE...AND GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES. SO...FOR THESE AREAS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WORK THEIR WAY DOWN
TO VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ENDING THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIP FOR THE AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH MOST AREAS AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AND RATHER
BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL PEAK IN STRENGTH ON
MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE
SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...NORTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
THEN TURNING MORE NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

WITH THIS PATTERN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A NICE WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
COOL SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT BY TUESDAY...MOST COASTAL/VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...THERE MAY BE SOME DECENTLY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE (POSSIBLY REACHING LOW
END ADVISORY CRITERIA). OTHERWISE...ANY OFFSHORE WINDS THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...18/0600Z.

THERE IS NO INVERSION NEAR KLAX AT 06Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. A WEAK FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH SLO AND SBA COUNTIES AT
THIS HOUR. SHOWERS WILL REACH LA COUNTY BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. KEPT
ALL SITES IN IFR...BUT THERE IS A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
OR VSBY PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE. COASTAL SITES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY
12-18Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT THAT MOST LIKELY WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...18/0230 AM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO SCA WINDS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. THE MARGINAL SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 3PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TWO NORTHERN OUTER
WATER ZONES...AS SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW 10 FEET. LOCAL 10
FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PZZ645 AND
PZZ676. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT A LARGE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
ENTER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND PZZ645 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES AT HARBOR ENTRANCES ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...NAMELY MORRO BAY HARBOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 181048
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
245 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED MARINE SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA THIS MORNING. ON FRIDAY...YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH
THE AREA...BUT ANY CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
NORTHERN SECTIONS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...WEAK SHORT WAVE IS DIVING DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA...GENERATING SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. PRETTY
MUCH EVERYWHERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME LIQUID HITTING THE GROUND
THIS MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
ALL AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD
IN...AND PRECIP THREAT SHOULD END.

FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE...AND GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES. SO...FOR THESE AREAS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WORK THEIR WAY DOWN
TO VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ENDING THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIP FOR THE AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH MOST AREAS AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AND RATHER
BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL PEAK IN STRENGTH ON
MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE
SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...NORTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
THEN TURNING MORE NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

WITH THIS PATTERN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A NICE WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
COOL SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT BY TUESDAY...MOST COASTAL/VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...THERE MAY BE SOME DECENTLY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE (POSSIBLY REACHING LOW
END ADVISORY CRITERIA). OTHERWISE...ANY OFFSHORE WINDS THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...18/0600Z.

THERE IS NO INVERSION NEAR KLAX AT 06Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. A WEAK FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH SLO AND SBA COUNTIES AT
THIS HOUR. SHOWERS WILL REACH LA COUNTY BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. KEPT
ALL SITES IN IFR...BUT THERE IS A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
OR VSBY PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE. COASTAL SITES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY
12-18Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT THAT MOST LIKELY WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...18/0230 AM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO SCA WINDS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. THE MARGINAL SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 3PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TWO NORTHERN OUTER
WATER ZONES...AS SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW 10 FEET. LOCAL 10
FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PZZ645 AND
PZZ676. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT A LARGE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
ENTER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND PZZ645 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES AT HARBOR ENTRANCES ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...NAMELY MORRO BAY HARBOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 181005
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
205 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA THIS MORNING. ON FRIDAY...YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH
THE AREA...BUT ANY CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
NORTHERN SECTIONS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...WEAK SHORT WAVE IS DIVING DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA...GENERATING SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. PRETTY
MUCH EVERYWHERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME LIQUID HITTING THE GROUND
THIS MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
ALL AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD
IN...AND PRECIP THREAT SHOULD END.

FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE...AND GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES. SO...FOR THESE AREAS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WORK THEIR WAY DOWN
TO VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ENDING THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIP FOR THE AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH MOST AREAS AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AND RATHER
BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL PEAK IN STRENGTH ON
MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE
SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...NORTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
THEN TURNING MORE NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

WITH THIS PATTERN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A NICE WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
COOL SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT BY TUESDAY...MOST COASTAL/VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...THERE MAY BE SOME DECENTLY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE (POSSIBLY REACHING LOW
END ADVISORY CRITERIA). OTHERWISE...ANY OFFSHORE WINDS THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...18/0600Z.

THERE IS NO INVERSION NEAR KLAX AT 06Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. A WEAK FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH SLO AND SBA COUNTIES AT
THIS HOUR. SHOWERS WILL REACH LA COUNTY BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. KEPT
ALL SITES IN IFR...BUT THERE IS A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
OR VSBY PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE. COASTAL SITES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY
12-18Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT THAT MOST LIKELY WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...17/800 PM.

LARGE SWELL CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY. ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
WINDS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BUT WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFTS
TONIGHT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. ANOTHER LARGE WNW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THIS ENERGY
IMPACTING THE INNER WATS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 180556
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
955 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. STARTING OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD...BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA IN LOW-
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS WILL GET SOME
REENFORCEMENT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
DIVES SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK
OF THE INSTABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR LOCATION SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION.

WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT EXITS THE AREA.
A GENERAL CLEARING SKY TREND SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILD IN AND SHOWERS TAPER OFF. NO UPDATES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER YET ANOTHER
WEAK STORM SYSTEM SQUASHES THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE
IDEA OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION ON
FRIDAY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL EXPECT PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GOING TO MOVE MUCH FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AT NIGHT AS SOME AREAS WILL CLEAR
OUT LONG ENOUGH TO MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

LONG TERM...THE GOOD NEWS IS THE LONGER TERM LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL BE A NICE BREAK FROM THE RAINY WEATHER
GOING INTO THE HOLIDAYS BUT JUST HOPE THE WATER TAP HAS NOT
COMPLETELY SHUT OFF FOR THE YEAR. WE WILL DEFINITELY SEE A WARMING
TREND STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK WITH A PEAK NEAR 80
DEGREES ON TUESDAY THEN POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY. REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE GFS MODEL RUN EXTENDING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...18/0600Z.

THERE IS NO INVERSION NEAR KLAX AT 06Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. A WEAK FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH SLO AND SBA COUNTIES AT
THIS HOUR. SHOWERS WILL REACH LA COUNTY BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. KEPT
ALL SITES IN IFR...BUT THERE IS A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
OR VISBY PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE. COASTAL SITES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VISBY
12-18Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT THAT MOST LIKELY WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...17/800 PM.

LARGE SWELL CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY. ALL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR WINDS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BUT WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFTS TONIGHT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. ANOTHER LARGE
WNW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL COAST BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THIS ENERGY IMPACTING THE INNER WATERS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/BOLDT
AVIATION...SUKUP
MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 180556
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
955 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. STARTING OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD...BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA IN LOW-
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS WILL GET SOME
REENFORCEMENT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
DIVES SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK
OF THE INSTABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR LOCATION SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION.

WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT EXITS THE AREA.
A GENERAL CLEARING SKY TREND SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILD IN AND SHOWERS TAPER OFF. NO UPDATES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER YET ANOTHER
WEAK STORM SYSTEM SQUASHES THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE
IDEA OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION ON
FRIDAY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL EXPECT PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GOING TO MOVE MUCH FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AT NIGHT AS SOME AREAS WILL CLEAR
OUT LONG ENOUGH TO MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

LONG TERM...THE GOOD NEWS IS THE LONGER TERM LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL BE A NICE BREAK FROM THE RAINY WEATHER
GOING INTO THE HOLIDAYS BUT JUST HOPE THE WATER TAP HAS NOT
COMPLETELY SHUT OFF FOR THE YEAR. WE WILL DEFINITELY SEE A WARMING
TREND STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK WITH A PEAK NEAR 80
DEGREES ON TUESDAY THEN POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY. REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE GFS MODEL RUN EXTENDING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...18/0600Z.

THERE IS NO INVERSION NEAR KLAX AT 06Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. A WEAK FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH SLO AND SBA COUNTIES AT
THIS HOUR. SHOWERS WILL REACH LA COUNTY BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. KEPT
ALL SITES IN IFR...BUT THERE IS A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
OR VISBY PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE. COASTAL SITES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VISBY
12-18Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT THAT MOST LIKELY WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...17/800 PM.

LARGE SWELL CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY. ALL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR WINDS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BUT WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFTS TONIGHT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. ANOTHER LARGE
WNW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL COAST BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THIS ENERGY IMPACTING THE INNER WATERS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/BOLDT
AVIATION...SUKUP
MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 180441
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
841 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. STARTING OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD...BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA IN LOW-
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS WILL GET SOME
REENFORCEMENT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
DIVES SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK
OF THE INSTABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR LOCATION SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION.

WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT EXITS THE AREA.
A GENERAL CLEARING SKY TREND SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILD IN AND SHOWERS TAPER OFF. NO UPDATES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER YET ANOTHER
WEAK STORM SYSTEM SQUASHES THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE
IDEA OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION ON
FRIDAY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL EXPECT PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GOING TO MOVE MUCH FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AT NIGHT AS SOME AREAS WILL CLEAR
OUT LONG ENOUGH TO MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

LONG TERM...THE GOOD NEWS IS THE LONGER TERM LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL BE A NICE BREAK FROM THE RAINY WEATHER
GOING INTO THE HOLIDAYS BUT JUST HOPE THE WATER TAP HAS NOT
COMPLETELY SHUT OFF FOR THE YEAR. WE WILL DEFINITELY SEE A WARMING
TREND STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK WITH A PEAK NEAR 80
DEGREES ON TUESDAY THEN POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY. REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE GFS MODEL RUN EXTENDING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...18/0037Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z...THEN A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH THROUGH 22Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AT SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY
TERMINALS...MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

KLAX AND KBUR...THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 6000 FEET COULD SPREAD
IN AS SOON AS 14Z AND LINGER AFTER 23Z.

&&

.MARINE...17/800 PM.

LARGE SWELL CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY. ALL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR WINDS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BUT WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFTS TONIGHT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. ANOTHER LARGE
WNW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL COAST BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THIS ENERGY IMPACTING THE INNER WATERS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/BOLDT
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 180037 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
437 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
STARTING OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...
WE`RE NOT QUITE DONE WITH THE RAIN. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM IS ONCE
AGAIN APPROACHING THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OUT AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL WELL WEST OF SFO BAY. THIS
FIRST FEATURE IS NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT BUT A FEW MEASURABLE
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED SINCE 21Z. ANTICIPATE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
PICK UP OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO AND WESTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS
STORM SYSTEM HAS A MORE INLAND TRAJECTORY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM STRETCHING VERY FAR SOUTH
OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
COASTAL VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER YET ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM
SQUASHES THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION ON FRIDAY LINGERING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WILL EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
GOING TO MOVE MUCH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY
AT NIGHT AS SOME AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT LONG ENOUGH TO MAXIMIZE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE LONGER TERM LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL
BE A NICE BREAK FROM THE RAINY WEATHER GOING INTO THE HOLIDAYS BUT
JUST HOPE THE WATER TAP HAS NOT COMPLETELY SHUT OFF FOR THE YEAR. WE
WILL DEFINITELY SEE A WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK
WITH A PEAK NEAR 80 DEGREES ON TUESDAY THEN POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE GFS MODEL RUN EXTENDING THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...18/0037Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z...THEN A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH THROUGH 22Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AT SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY
TERMINALS...MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

KLAX AND KBUR...THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 6000 FEET COULD SPREAD
IN AS SOON AS 14Z AND LINGER AFTER 23Z.

&&

.MARINE...17/200 PM.

SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF HIGH SURF CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE BEACHES
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND LIKELY SOME AREAS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION AS WELL. THEREFORE...WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO THE MARINE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE...FOR NOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN. BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE OCEAN SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN. HOWEVER...ON
SATURDAY ANOTHER LARGE SWELL WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL COAST WITH
ANOTHER HIGH SURF EVENT LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 180037 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
437 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
STARTING OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...
WE`RE NOT QUITE DONE WITH THE RAIN. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM IS ONCE
AGAIN APPROACHING THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OUT AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL WELL WEST OF SFO BAY. THIS
FIRST FEATURE IS NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT BUT A FEW MEASURABLE
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED SINCE 21Z. ANTICIPATE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
PICK UP OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO AND WESTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS
STORM SYSTEM HAS A MORE INLAND TRAJECTORY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM STRETCHING VERY FAR SOUTH
OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
COASTAL VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER YET ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM
SQUASHES THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION ON FRIDAY LINGERING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WILL EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
GOING TO MOVE MUCH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY
AT NIGHT AS SOME AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT LONG ENOUGH TO MAXIMIZE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE LONGER TERM LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL
BE A NICE BREAK FROM THE RAINY WEATHER GOING INTO THE HOLIDAYS BUT
JUST HOPE THE WATER TAP HAS NOT COMPLETELY SHUT OFF FOR THE YEAR. WE
WILL DEFINITELY SEE A WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK
WITH A PEAK NEAR 80 DEGREES ON TUESDAY THEN POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE GFS MODEL RUN EXTENDING THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...18/0037Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z...THEN A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH THROUGH 22Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AT SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY
TERMINALS...MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

KLAX AND KBUR...THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 6000 FEET COULD SPREAD
IN AS SOON AS 14Z AND LINGER AFTER 23Z.

&&

.MARINE...17/200 PM.

SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF HIGH SURF CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE BEACHES
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND LIKELY SOME AREAS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION AS WELL. THEREFORE...WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO THE MARINE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE...FOR NOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN. BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE OCEAN SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN. HOWEVER...ON
SATURDAY ANOTHER LARGE SWELL WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL COAST WITH
ANOTHER HIGH SURF EVENT LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 172216
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

...NEW MARINE FORECAST...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
STARTING OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...
WE`RE NOT QUITE DONE WITH THE RAIN. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM IS ONCE
AGAIN APPROACHING THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OUT AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL WELL WEST OF SFO BAY. THIS
FIRST FEATURE IS NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT BUT A FEW MEASURABLE
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED SINCE 21Z. ANTICIPATE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
PICK UP OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO AND WESTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS
STORM SYSTEM HAS A MORE INLAND TRAJECTORY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM STRETCHING VERY FAR SOUTH
OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
COASTAL VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER YET ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM
SQUASHES THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION ON FRIDAY LINGERING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WILL EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
GOING TO MOVE MUCH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY
AT NIGHT AS SOME AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT LONG ENOUGH TO MAXIMIZE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE LONGER TERM LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL
BE A NICE BREAK FROM THE RAINY WEATHER GOING INTO THE HOLIDAYS BUT
JUST HOPE THE WATER TAP HAS NOT COMPLETELY SHUT OFF FOR THE YEAR. WE
WILL DEFINITELY SEE A WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK
WITH A PEAK NEAR 80 DEGREES ON TUESDAY THEN POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE GFS MODEL RUN EXTENDING THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1800Z.

THERE IS NO INVERSION NEAR KLAX AT 18Z.

ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT IS HOLDING TOGETHER BETTER THAN EXPECTED AND
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOST AREAS WILL SEE
JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE SITUATION IS STILL EVOLVING SO
FUTURE CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE AND CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z FORECAST. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...17/200 PM.

SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF HIGH SURF CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE BEACHES
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND LIKELY SOME AREAS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION AS WELL. THEREFORE...WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO THE MARINE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE...FOR NOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN. BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE OCEAN SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN. HOWEVER...ON
SATURDAY ANOTHER LARGE SWELL WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL COAST WITH
ANOTHER HIGH SURF EVENT LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 172216
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

...NEW MARINE FORECAST...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
STARTING OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...
WE`RE NOT QUITE DONE WITH THE RAIN. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM IS ONCE
AGAIN APPROACHING THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OUT AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL WELL WEST OF SFO BAY. THIS
FIRST FEATURE IS NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT BUT A FEW MEASURABLE
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED SINCE 21Z. ANTICIPATE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
PICK UP OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO AND WESTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS
STORM SYSTEM HAS A MORE INLAND TRAJECTORY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM STRETCHING VERY FAR SOUTH
OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
COASTAL VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER YET ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM
SQUASHES THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION ON FRIDAY LINGERING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WILL EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
GOING TO MOVE MUCH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY
AT NIGHT AS SOME AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT LONG ENOUGH TO MAXIMIZE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE LONGER TERM LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL
BE A NICE BREAK FROM THE RAINY WEATHER GOING INTO THE HOLIDAYS BUT
JUST HOPE THE WATER TAP HAS NOT COMPLETELY SHUT OFF FOR THE YEAR. WE
WILL DEFINITELY SEE A WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK
WITH A PEAK NEAR 80 DEGREES ON TUESDAY THEN POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE GFS MODEL RUN EXTENDING THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1800Z.

THERE IS NO INVERSION NEAR KLAX AT 18Z.

ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT IS HOLDING TOGETHER BETTER THAN EXPECTED AND
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOST AREAS WILL SEE
JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE SITUATION IS STILL EVOLVING SO
FUTURE CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE AND CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z FORECAST. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...17/200 PM.

SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF HIGH SURF CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE BEACHES
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND LIKELY SOME AREAS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION AS WELL. THEREFORE...WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO THE MARINE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE...FOR NOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN. BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE OCEAN SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN. HOWEVER...ON
SATURDAY ANOTHER LARGE SWELL WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL COAST WITH
ANOTHER HIGH SURF EVENT LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 172135
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
135 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
STARTING OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...
WE`RE NOT QUITE DONE WITH THE RAIN. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM IS ONCE
AGAIN APPROACHING THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OUT AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL WELL WEST OF SFO BAY. THIS
FIRST FEATURE IS NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT BUT A FEW MEASURABLE
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED SINCE 21Z. ANTICIPATE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
PICK UP OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO AND WESTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS
STORM SYSTEM HAS A MORE INLAND TRAJECTORY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM STRETCHING VERY FAR SOUTH
OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
COASTAL VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER YET ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM
SQUASHES THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION ON FRIDAY LINGERING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WILL EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
GOING TO MOVE MUCH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY
AT NIGHT AS SOME AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT LONG ENOUGH TO MAXIMIZE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE LONGER TERM LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL
BE A NICE BREAK FROM THE RAINY WEATHER GOING INTO THE HOLIDAYS BUT
JUST HOPE THE WATER TAP HAS NOT COMPLETELY SHUT OFF FOR THE YEAR. WE
WILL DEFINITELY SEE A WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK
WITH A PEAK NEAR 80 DEGREES ON TUESDAY THEN POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE GFS MODEL RUN EXTENDING THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1800Z.

THERE IS NO INVERSION NEAR KLAX AT 18Z.

ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT IS HOLDING TOGETHER BETTER THAN EXPECTED AND
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOST AREAS WILL SEE
JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE SITUATION IS STILL EVOLVING SO
FUTURE CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE AND CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z FORECAST. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...17/800 AM.

SWELL HEIGHTS ARE DECREASING TODAY...SO NOT SURE WE WILL BE DEALING
WITH MARINE ISSUES RELATED TO THE LARGE SWELL FOR TOO MUCH LONGER.
THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SWELL HEIGHTS JUST UNDER 10 FEET AND PERIODS
OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS. MORRO BAY DOES NOT REPORT A HAZARDOUS BAR
WARNING AND THE SEAS AT THE MORRO BAY ENTRANCE ARE ONLY 4 TO 6 FEET.
WILL EXAMINE THE POSSIBILITY OF DROPPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND ALL OTHER MARINE AND COASTAL CONCERNS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FOR NOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS
AND SEAS REMAIN. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OCEAN SURFACE IS
EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN. HOWEVER...ON SATURDAY ANOTHER LARGE SWELL
WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH SURF EVENT LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 171933
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1130 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...THEN A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
STARTING FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
PASSING STORM HAS EXITED SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW AND
UPSLOPE ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET. LOOKS LIKE
SEVERAL INCHES FELL OVERNIGHT ABOVE 5500 FEET WITH REPORTS OF UP TO
10 INCHES AT MOUNTAIN HIGH SKI RESORT (NEAR 8000 FEET). WILL KEEP
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING TODAY FOR ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION.

IT WAS RATHER RARE TO SEE LIGHTNING ALL NIGHT LONG AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODEL INSTABILITY WAS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEK`S HEAVY RAIN EVENT WHEN NO LIGHTNING OCCURRED AT ALL. THIS
EVENT HAD A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST JET STREAK...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
TILT UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED RIGHT OVER THE CHANNEL
ISLANDS AND THEN INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS MORNING. RAIN RATES
WERE INTENSE IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE AREAL COVERAGE
WAS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD AND MISSED ANY SIGNIFICANT BURN AREA OR
OTHER SUSCEPTIBLE PROBLEM SPOT (GOOD NEWS THERE).

ANOTHER VERY WEAK STORM SYSTEM WAS RAPIDLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS EVENING AND BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MORE INLAND TRAJECTORY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IMPACT FOR OUR REGION.
SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO CALIFORNIA.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN DRAMATICALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST. SO...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST ON FRIDAY.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLOW WARMING
TREND...BUT REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. AT UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE.

END RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. IN FACT BY TUESDAY...MOST
COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND EVEN PUSHING 80 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE WINDS...JUST
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORE FAVORED NORTHEASTERLY
WIND-PRONE AREAS.

BIT FURTHER OUT...MODELS INDICATE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1800Z.

THERE IS NO INVERSION NEAR KLAX AT 18Z.

ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT IS HOLDING TOGETHER BETTER THAN EXPECTED AND
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOST AREAS WILL SEE
JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE SITUATION IS STILL EVOLVING SO
FUTURE CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE AND CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z FORECAST. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...17/800 AM.

SWELL HEIGHTS ARE DECREASING TODAY...SO NOT SURE WE WILL BE DEALING
WITH MARINE ISSUES RELATED TO THE LARGE SWELL FOR TOO MUCH LONGER.
THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SWELL HEIGHTS JUST UNDER 10 FEET AND PERIODS
OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS. MORRO BAY DOES NOT REPORT A HAZARDOUS BAR
WARNING AND THE SEAS AT THE MORRO BAY ENTRANCE ARE ONLY 4 TO 6 FEET.
WILL EXAMINE THE POSSIBILITY OF DROPPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND ALL OTHER MARINE AND COASTAL CONCERNS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FOR NOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS
AND SEAS REMAIN. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OCEAN SURFACE IS
EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN. HOWEVER...ON SATURDAY ANOTHER LARGE SWELL
WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH SURF EVENT LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...EB/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...EB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 171933
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1130 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...THEN A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
STARTING FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
PASSING STORM HAS EXITED SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW AND
UPSLOPE ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET. LOOKS LIKE
SEVERAL INCHES FELL OVERNIGHT ABOVE 5500 FEET WITH REPORTS OF UP TO
10 INCHES AT MOUNTAIN HIGH SKI RESORT (NEAR 8000 FEET). WILL KEEP
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING TODAY FOR ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION.

IT WAS RATHER RARE TO SEE LIGHTNING ALL NIGHT LONG AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODEL INSTABILITY WAS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEK`S HEAVY RAIN EVENT WHEN NO LIGHTNING OCCURRED AT ALL. THIS
EVENT HAD A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST JET STREAK...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
TILT UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED RIGHT OVER THE CHANNEL
ISLANDS AND THEN INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS MORNING. RAIN RATES
WERE INTENSE IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE AREAL COVERAGE
WAS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD AND MISSED ANY SIGNIFICANT BURN AREA OR
OTHER SUSCEPTIBLE PROBLEM SPOT (GOOD NEWS THERE).

ANOTHER VERY WEAK STORM SYSTEM WAS RAPIDLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS EVENING AND BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MORE INLAND TRAJECTORY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IMPACT FOR OUR REGION.
SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO CALIFORNIA.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN DRAMATICALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST. SO...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST ON FRIDAY.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLOW WARMING
TREND...BUT REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. AT UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE.

END RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. IN FACT BY TUESDAY...MOST
COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND EVEN PUSHING 80 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE WINDS...JUST
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORE FAVORED NORTHEASTERLY
WIND-PRONE AREAS.

BIT FURTHER OUT...MODELS INDICATE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1800Z.

THERE IS NO INVERSION NEAR KLAX AT 18Z.

ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT IS HOLDING TOGETHER BETTER THAN EXPECTED AND
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOST AREAS WILL SEE
JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE SITUATION IS STILL EVOLVING SO
FUTURE CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE AND CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z FORECAST. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...17/800 AM.

SWELL HEIGHTS ARE DECREASING TODAY...SO NOT SURE WE WILL BE DEALING
WITH MARINE ISSUES RELATED TO THE LARGE SWELL FOR TOO MUCH LONGER.
THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SWELL HEIGHTS JUST UNDER 10 FEET AND PERIODS
OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS. MORRO BAY DOES NOT REPORT A HAZARDOUS BAR
WARNING AND THE SEAS AT THE MORRO BAY ENTRANCE ARE ONLY 4 TO 6 FEET.
WILL EXAMINE THE POSSIBILITY OF DROPPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND ALL OTHER MARINE AND COASTAL CONCERNS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FOR NOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS
AND SEAS REMAIN. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OCEAN SURFACE IS
EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN. HOWEVER...ON SATURDAY ANOTHER LARGE SWELL
WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH SURF EVENT LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...EB/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...EB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 171623
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
820 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...THEN A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
STARTING FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
PASSING STORM HAS EXITED SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW AND
UPSLOPE ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET. LOOKS LIKE
SEVERAL INCHES FELL OVERNIGHT ABOVE 5500 FEET WITH REPORTS OF UP TO
10 INCHES AT MOUNTAIN HIGH SKI RESORT (NEAR 8000 FEET). WILL KEEP
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING TODAY FOR ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION.

IT WAS RATHER RARE TO SEE LIGHTNING ALL NIGHT LONG AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODEL INSTABILITY WAS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEK`S HEAVY RAIN EVENT WHEN NO LIGHTNING OCCURRED AT ALL. THIS
EVENT HAD A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST JET STREAK...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
TILT UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED RIGHT OVER THE CHANNEL
ISLANDS AND THEN INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS MORNING. RAIN RATES
WERE INTENSE IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE AREAL COVERAGE
WAS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD AND MISSED ANY SIGNIFICANT BURN AREA OR
OTHER SUSCEPTIBLE PROBLEM SPOT (GOOD NEWS THERE).

ANOTHER VERY WEAK STORM SYSTEM WAS RAPIDLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS EVENING AND BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MORE INLAND TRAJECTORY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IMPACT FOR OUR REGION.
SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO CALIFORNIA.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN DRAMATICALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST. SO...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST ON FRIDAY.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLOW WARMING
TREND...BUT REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. AT UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE.

END RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. IN FACT BY TUESDAY...MOST
COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND EVEN PUSHING 80 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE WINDS...JUST
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORE FAVORED NORTHEASTERLY
WIND-PRONE AREAS.

BIT FURTHER OUT...MODELS INDICATE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1145Z.

NO INVERSION AT KLAX AT 1130Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXITING LA COUNTY BY ABOUT 14Z. MOST CIGS SHOULD STAY
VFR AFTER THAT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE DESERT SITES WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO FOG.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR
AFTER ABOUT 13Z...WITH ANY CIGS STAYING ABOVE 3000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...17/800 AM.

SWELL HEIGHTS ARE DECREASING TODAY...SO NOT SURE WE WILL BE DEALING
WITH MARINE ISSUES RELATED TO THE LARGE SWELL FOR TOO MUCH LONGER.
THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SWELL HEIGHTS JUST UNDER 10 FEET AND PERIODS
OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS. MORRO BAY DOES NOT REPORT A HAZARDOUS BAR
WARNING AND THE SEAS AT THE MORRO BAY ENTRANCE ARE ONLY 4 TO 6 FEET.
WILL EXAMINE THE POSSIBILITY OF DROPPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND ALL OTHER MARINE AND COASTAL CONCERNS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FOR NOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS
AND SEAS REMAIN. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OCEAN SURFACE IS
EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN. HOWEVER...ON SATURDAY ANOTHER LARGE SWELL
WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH SURF EVENT LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...EB/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...EB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 171623
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
820 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...THEN A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
STARTING FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
PASSING STORM HAS EXITED SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW AND
UPSLOPE ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET. LOOKS LIKE
SEVERAL INCHES FELL OVERNIGHT ABOVE 5500 FEET WITH REPORTS OF UP TO
10 INCHES AT MOUNTAIN HIGH SKI RESORT (NEAR 8000 FEET). WILL KEEP
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING TODAY FOR ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION.

IT WAS RATHER RARE TO SEE LIGHTNING ALL NIGHT LONG AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODEL INSTABILITY WAS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEK`S HEAVY RAIN EVENT WHEN NO LIGHTNING OCCURRED AT ALL. THIS
EVENT HAD A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST JET STREAK...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
TILT UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED RIGHT OVER THE CHANNEL
ISLANDS AND THEN INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS MORNING. RAIN RATES
WERE INTENSE IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE AREAL COVERAGE
WAS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD AND MISSED ANY SIGNIFICANT BURN AREA OR
OTHER SUSCEPTIBLE PROBLEM SPOT (GOOD NEWS THERE).

ANOTHER VERY WEAK STORM SYSTEM WAS RAPIDLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS EVENING AND BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MORE INLAND TRAJECTORY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IMPACT FOR OUR REGION.
SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO CALIFORNIA.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN DRAMATICALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST. SO...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST ON FRIDAY.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLOW WARMING
TREND...BUT REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. AT UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE.

END RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. IN FACT BY TUESDAY...MOST
COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND EVEN PUSHING 80 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE WINDS...JUST
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORE FAVORED NORTHEASTERLY
WIND-PRONE AREAS.

BIT FURTHER OUT...MODELS INDICATE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1145Z.

NO INVERSION AT KLAX AT 1130Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXITING LA COUNTY BY ABOUT 14Z. MOST CIGS SHOULD STAY
VFR AFTER THAT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE DESERT SITES WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO FOG.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR
AFTER ABOUT 13Z...WITH ANY CIGS STAYING ABOVE 3000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...17/800 AM.

SWELL HEIGHTS ARE DECREASING TODAY...SO NOT SURE WE WILL BE DEALING
WITH MARINE ISSUES RELATED TO THE LARGE SWELL FOR TOO MUCH LONGER.
THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SWELL HEIGHTS JUST UNDER 10 FEET AND PERIODS
OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS. MORRO BAY DOES NOT REPORT A HAZARDOUS BAR
WARNING AND THE SEAS AT THE MORRO BAY ENTRANCE ARE ONLY 4 TO 6 FEET.
WILL EXAMINE THE POSSIBILITY OF DROPPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND ALL OTHER MARINE AND COASTAL CONCERNS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FOR NOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS
AND SEAS REMAIN. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OCEAN SURFACE IS
EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN. HOWEVER...ON SATURDAY ANOTHER LARGE SWELL
WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH SURF EVENT LIKELY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...EB/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...EB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 171158
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED MARINE SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
OVERALL...VERY ACTIVE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTIES.
FRONT IS PRETTY ACTIVE WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
EVEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES AROUND 0.75
INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN REPORTED. SO...WITH THE POTENTIAL HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES...AND EVEN LOCALLY MORE INTENSE RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...BURN AREAS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL
BE AT RISK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. SO...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE RECENT
BURN AREAS. FOR OTHER AREAS...RATHER WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING WILL
BE LIKELY. BASED ON CURRENT SPEED...THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING LOS
ANGELES COUNTY AROUND 600 AM THIS MORNING. SO FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 5000 AND
5500 FEET TODAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WITH 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 6000 FEET AND A DUSTING/LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT
5000 FEET DUE TO CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FOR TONIGHT/THURSDAY...MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIP
THREAT SHOULD BE ENDING.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN DRAMATICALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST. SO...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST ON FRIDAY.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLOW WARMING
TREND...BUT REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. AT UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE.

END RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. IN FACT BY TUESDAY...MOST
COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND EVEN PUSHING 80 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE WINDS...JUST
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORE FAVORED NORTHEASTERLY
WIND-PRONE AREAS.

BIT FURTHER OUT...MODELS INDICATE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1145Z.

NO INVERSION AT KLAX AT 1130Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXITING LA COUNTY BY ABOUT 14Z. MOST CIGS SHOULD STAY
VFR AFTER THAT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE DESERT SITES WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO FOG.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR
AFTER ABOUT 13Z...WITH ANY CIGS STAYING ABOVE 3000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...17/400 AM.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO THE
WEEKEND...OTHER THAN SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS
AND THE INNER WATERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED THIS MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 171158
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED MARINE SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
OVERALL...VERY ACTIVE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTIES.
FRONT IS PRETTY ACTIVE WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
EVEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES AROUND 0.75
INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN REPORTED. SO...WITH THE POTENTIAL HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES...AND EVEN LOCALLY MORE INTENSE RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...BURN AREAS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL
BE AT RISK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. SO...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE RECENT
BURN AREAS. FOR OTHER AREAS...RATHER WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING WILL
BE LIKELY. BASED ON CURRENT SPEED...THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING LOS
ANGELES COUNTY AROUND 600 AM THIS MORNING. SO FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 5000 AND
5500 FEET TODAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WITH 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 6000 FEET AND A DUSTING/LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT
5000 FEET DUE TO CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FOR TONIGHT/THURSDAY...MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIP
THREAT SHOULD BE ENDING.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN DRAMATICALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST. SO...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST ON FRIDAY.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLOW WARMING
TREND...BUT REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. AT UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE.

END RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. IN FACT BY TUESDAY...MOST
COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND EVEN PUSHING 80 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE WINDS...JUST
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORE FAVORED NORTHEASTERLY
WIND-PRONE AREAS.

BIT FURTHER OUT...MODELS INDICATE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1145Z.

NO INVERSION AT KLAX AT 1130Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXITING LA COUNTY BY ABOUT 14Z. MOST CIGS SHOULD STAY
VFR AFTER THAT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE DESERT SITES WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO FOG.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR
AFTER ABOUT 13Z...WITH ANY CIGS STAYING ABOVE 3000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...17/400 AM.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO THE
WEEKEND...OTHER THAN SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS
AND THE INNER WATERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED THIS MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 171148
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
345 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
OVERALL...VERY ACTIVE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTIES.
FRONT IS PRETTY ACTIVE WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
EVEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES AROUND 0.75
INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN REPORTED. SO...WITH THE POTENTIAL HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES...AND EVEN LOCALLY MORE INTENSE RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...BURN AREAS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL
BE AT RISK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. SO...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE RECENT
BURN AREAS. FOR OTHER AREAS...RATHER WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING WILL
BE LIKELY. BASED ON CURRENT SPEED...THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING LOS
ANGELES COUNTY AROUND 600 AM THIS MORNING. SO FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 5000 AND
5500 FEET TODAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WITH 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 6000 FEET AND A DUSTING/LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT
5000 FEET DUE TO CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FOR TONIGHT/THURSDAY...MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIP
THREAT SHOULD BE ENDING.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN DRAMATICALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST. SO...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST ON FRIDAY.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLOW WARMING
TREND...BUT REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. AT UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE.

END RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. IN FACT BY TUESDAY...MOST
COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND EVEN PUSHING 80 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE WINDS...JUST
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORE FAVORED NORTHEASTERLY
WIND-PRONE AREAS.

BIT FURTHER OUT...MODELS INDICATE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1145Z.

NO INVERSION AT KLAX AT 1130Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXITING LA COUNTY BY ABOUT 14Z. MOST CIGS SHOULD STAY
VFR AFTER THAT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE DESERT SITES WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO FOG.

KLAX AND KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR
AFTER ABOUT 13Z...WITH ANY CIGS STAYING ABOVE 3000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...16/800 PM.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SWELLS WILL PERSIST WITH SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WED.
ANOTHER SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 171004
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
205 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
OVERALL...VERY ACTIVE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTIES.
FRONT IS PRETTY ACTIVE WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
EVEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES AROUND 0.75
INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN REPORTED. SO...WITH THE POTENTIAL HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES...AND EVEN LOCALLY MORE INTENSE RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...BURN AREAS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL
BE AT RISK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. SO...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE RECENT
BURN AREAS. FOR OTHER AREAS...RATHER WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING WILL
BE LIKELY. BASED ON CURRENT SPEED...THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING LOS
ANGELES COUNTY AROUND 600 AM THIS MORNING. SO FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 5000 AND
5500 FEET TODAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WITH 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 6000 FEET AND A DUSTING/LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT
5000 FEET DUE TO CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FOR TONIGHT/THURSDAY...MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIP
THREAT SHOULD BE ENDING.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN DRAMATICALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST. SO...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST ON FRIDAY.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLOW WARMING
TREND...BUT REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. AT UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE.

END RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. IN FACT BY TUESDAY...MOST
COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND EVEN PUSHING 80 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE WINDS...JUST
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORE FAVORED NORTHEASTERLY
WIND-PRONE AREAS.

BIT FURTHER OUT...MODELS INDICATE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...17/0600Z.

NO INVERSION AT KLAX AT 0600Z.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CURRENTLY
COVERING ALL OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT...REACHING LA COUNTY AROUND 09Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY POP
UP OUT AHEAD OF THE AREA OF STEADIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. ORGANIZED SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT LA
COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. ORGANIZED SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 09Z BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY POP UP
BEFORE THEN. IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...16/800 PM.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SWELLS WILL PERSIST WITH SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WED.
ANOTHER SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 171004
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
205 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
OVERALL...VERY ACTIVE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTIES.
FRONT IS PRETTY ACTIVE WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
EVEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES AROUND 0.75
INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN REPORTED. SO...WITH THE POTENTIAL HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES...AND EVEN LOCALLY MORE INTENSE RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...BURN AREAS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL
BE AT RISK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. SO...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE RECENT
BURN AREAS. FOR OTHER AREAS...RATHER WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING WILL
BE LIKELY. BASED ON CURRENT SPEED...THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING LOS
ANGELES COUNTY AROUND 600 AM THIS MORNING. SO FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 5000 AND
5500 FEET TODAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WITH 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 6000 FEET AND A DUSTING/LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT
5000 FEET DUE TO CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FOR TONIGHT/THURSDAY...MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIP
THREAT SHOULD BE ENDING.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN DRAMATICALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST. SO...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST ON FRIDAY.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A SLOW WARMING
TREND...BUT REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. AT UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE.

END RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. IN FACT BY TUESDAY...MOST
COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND EVEN PUSHING 80 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE WINDS...JUST
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORE FAVORED NORTHEASTERLY
WIND-PRONE AREAS.

BIT FURTHER OUT...MODELS INDICATE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...17/0600Z.

NO INVERSION AT KLAX AT 0600Z.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CURRENTLY
COVERING ALL OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT...REACHING LA COUNTY AROUND 09Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY POP
UP OUT AHEAD OF THE AREA OF STEADIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. ORGANIZED SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT LA
COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. ORGANIZED SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 09Z BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY POP UP
BEFORE THEN. IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...16/800 PM.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SWELLS WILL PERSIST WITH SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WED.
ANOTHER SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 170605
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1004 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER THURSDAY
WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO A SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF
PALOS VERDES PENINSULA...THERE WAS LIGHT FLOW WHICH MEANT STORMS
WERE SLOW MOVING. A PARTICULARLY STRONG CLUSTER OF SLOW MOVING STORMS
DEVELOPED OVER TORRANCE AND NEARBY COMMUNITIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE TORRANCE
AREA...WHERE DANGEROUS ROADWAY FLOODING TRAPPED SOME VEHICLES.
DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN IMPRESSIVE
RAINFALL INTENSITY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR! AN AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATION IN TORRANCE ALSO REPORTED A STORM TOTAL THAT EXCEEDED 3
INCHES.

LATEST 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN AREA OF GOOD INSTABILITY
AND CAPE OVER COASTAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. IN FACT...LIFTED INDEX VALUES BETWEEN -3 AND -4 ARE BEING
PICKED UP BETWEEN PALOS VERDES AND CATALINA ISLAND...WITH CAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG FOR THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS A RESULT...THE LOS ANGELES COASTAL ZONE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE AREA WITH GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORM
CELLS...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE URBAN ROADWAY FLOODING OVER THE
LA BASIN. 00Z NAM ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILE THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OFF THE COAST OF LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...
NONE OF THE STORM CELLS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE BEEN A THREAT TO
THE COLBY AND SPRINGS BURN AREAS...BUT THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
EVENING. SO FAR...RAIN HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT RADAR DOES SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE NATURE
TO THE PRECIPITATION. RAINFALL RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS NEXT FRONT...HOWEVER
LOCALLY REACHING ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF STORMS REACHING THE CRITICAL
ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR THRESHOLD FOR THE SPRINGS AND COLBY BURN
AREAS IS SLIM...IT IS NOT A ZERO CHANCE. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE RECENT BURN
AREAS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
CLOSELY IF CONVECTION COVERAGE INCREASES.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT AND DOWN TO 5000-5500
WED. EVEN WITH THE LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT STILL PUTS US INTO
THE LOWER END OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR LA/VENTURA
MTNS. NO IMPACTS ON THE GRAPEVINE EXPECTED THOUGH.

PRETTY GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING PRECIP COVERAGE WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING AFTERNOON
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.

DRY WEATHER AND A LITTLE WARMER MOST AREAS THU/FRI. A COUPLE OF DYING
COLD FRONTS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THU
THRU FRI BUT LIKELY NO RAIN EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NW TIP OF SLO COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRI FRONT WILL EXIT THE
AREA SAT MORNING LEAVING CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS. WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A BIG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW. COULD HAVE HIGHS NEAR 80 BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...17/0600Z.

NO MARINE LAYER INVERSION AT KLAX AT 0600Z.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CURRENTLY
COVERING ALL OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT...REACHING LA COUNTY AROUND 09Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY POP
UP OUT AHEAD OF THE AREA OF STEADIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. ORGANIZED SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT LA
COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. ORANIZED SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 09Z BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY POP UP
BEFORE THEN. IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...16/800 PM.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SWELLS WILL PERSIST WITH SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WED.
ANOTHER SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION...SUKUP
MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 170605
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1004 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER THURSDAY
WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO A SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF
PALOS VERDES PENINSULA...THERE WAS LIGHT FLOW WHICH MEANT STORMS
WERE SLOW MOVING. A PARTICULARLY STRONG CLUSTER OF SLOW MOVING STORMS
DEVELOPED OVER TORRANCE AND NEARBY COMMUNITIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE TORRANCE
AREA...WHERE DANGEROUS ROADWAY FLOODING TRAPPED SOME VEHICLES.
DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN IMPRESSIVE
RAINFALL INTENSITY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR! AN AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATION IN TORRANCE ALSO REPORTED A STORM TOTAL THAT EXCEEDED 3
INCHES.

LATEST 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN AREA OF GOOD INSTABILITY
AND CAPE OVER COASTAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. IN FACT...LIFTED INDEX VALUES BETWEEN -3 AND -4 ARE BEING
PICKED UP BETWEEN PALOS VERDES AND CATALINA ISLAND...WITH CAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG FOR THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS A RESULT...THE LOS ANGELES COASTAL ZONE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE AREA WITH GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORM
CELLS...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE URBAN ROADWAY FLOODING OVER THE
LA BASIN. 00Z NAM ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILE THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OFF THE COAST OF LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...
NONE OF THE STORM CELLS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE BEEN A THREAT TO
THE COLBY AND SPRINGS BURN AREAS...BUT THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
EVENING. SO FAR...RAIN HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT RADAR DOES SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE NATURE
TO THE PRECIPITATION. RAINFALL RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS NEXT FRONT...HOWEVER
LOCALLY REACHING ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF STORMS REACHING THE CRITICAL
ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR THRESHOLD FOR THE SPRINGS AND COLBY BURN
AREAS IS SLIM...IT IS NOT A ZERO CHANCE. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE RECENT BURN
AREAS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
CLOSELY IF CONVECTION COVERAGE INCREASES.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT AND DOWN TO 5000-5500
WED. EVEN WITH THE LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT STILL PUTS US INTO
THE LOWER END OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR LA/VENTURA
MTNS. NO IMPACTS ON THE GRAPEVINE EXPECTED THOUGH.

PRETTY GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING PRECIP COVERAGE WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING AFTERNOON
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.

DRY WEATHER AND A LITTLE WARMER MOST AREAS THU/FRI. A COUPLE OF DYING
COLD FRONTS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THU
THRU FRI BUT LIKELY NO RAIN EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NW TIP OF SLO COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRI FRONT WILL EXIT THE
AREA SAT MORNING LEAVING CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS. WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A BIG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW. COULD HAVE HIGHS NEAR 80 BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...17/0600Z.

NO MARINE LAYER INVERSION AT KLAX AT 0600Z.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CURRENTLY
COVERING ALL OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT...REACHING LA COUNTY AROUND 09Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY POP
UP OUT AHEAD OF THE AREA OF STEADIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. ORGANIZED SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT LA
COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. ORANIZED SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 09Z BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY POP UP
BEFORE THEN. IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...16/800 PM.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SWELLS WILL PERSIST WITH SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WED.
ANOTHER SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION...SUKUP
MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 170410
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER THURSDAY
WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO A SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF
PALOS VERDES PENINSULA...THERE WAS LIGHT FLOW WHICH MEANT STORMS
WERE SLOW MOVING. A PARTICULARLY STRONG CLUSTER OF SLOW MOVING STORMS
DEVELOPED OVER TORRANCE AND NEARBY COMMUNITIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE TORRANCE
AREA...WHERE DANGEROUS ROADWAY FLOODING TRAPPED SOME VEHICLES.
DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN IMPRESSIVE
RAINFALL INTENSITY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR! AN AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATION IN TORRANCE ALSO REPORTED A STORM TOTAL THAT EXCEEDED 3
INCHES.

LATEST 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN AREA OF GOOD INSTABILITY
AND CAPE OVER COASTAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. IN FACT...LIFTED INDEX VALUES BETWEEN -3 AND -4 ARE BEING
PICKED UP BETWEEN PALOS VERDES AND CATALINA ISLAND...WITH CAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG FOR THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS A RESULT...THE LOS ANGELES COASTAL ZONE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE AREA WITH GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORM
CELLS...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE URBAN ROADWAY FLOODING OVER THE
LA BASIN. 00Z NAM ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILE THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OFF THE COAST OF LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...
NONE OF THE STORM CELLS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE BEEN A THREAT TO
THE COLBY AND SPRINGS BURN AREAS...BUT THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
EVENING. SO FAR...RAIN HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT RADAR DOES SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE NATURE
TO THE PRECIPITATION. RAINFALL RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS NEXT FRONT...HOWEVER
LOCALLY REACHING ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF STORMS REACHING THE CRITICAL
ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR THRESHOLD FOR THE SPRINGS AND COLBY BURN
AREAS IS SLIM...IT IS NOT A ZERO CHANCE. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE RECENT BURN
AREAS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
CLOSELY IF CONVECTION COVERAGE INCREASES.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT AND DOWN TO 5000-5500
WED. EVEN WITH THE LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT STILL PUTS US INTO
THE LOWER END OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR LA/VENTURA
MTNS. NO IMPACTS ON THE GRAPEVINE EXPECTED THOUGH.

PRETTY GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING PRECIP COVERAGE WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING AFTERNOON
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.

DRY WEATHER AND A LITTLE WARMER MOST AREAS THU/FRI. A COUPLE OF DYING
COLD FRONTS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THU
THRU FRI BUT LIKELY NO RAIN EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NW TIP OF SLO COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRI FRONT WILL EXIT THE
AREA SAT MORNING LEAVING CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS. WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A BIG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW. COULD HAVE HIGHS NEAR 80 BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...16/2350Z.

AT 2350Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO LOS ANGELES
COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING STEADY
RAIN TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING...SPREADING INTO VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL GENERALLY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...ALONG WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH FRONT.

KLAX...ENE WND COMPONENT UP TO 9KTS WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OFF THE COAST OF PALOS VERDES PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AFTER
03Z...THEN PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 12Z.

KBUR...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AFTER 03Z...THEN PICK UP AGAIN AFTER
12Z.

&&

.MARINE...16/800 PM.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SWELLS WILL PERSIST WITH SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WED.
ANOTHER SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 170410
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER THURSDAY
WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO A SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF
PALOS VERDES PENINSULA...THERE WAS LIGHT FLOW WHICH MEANT STORMS
WERE SLOW MOVING. A PARTICULARLY STRONG CLUSTER OF SLOW MOVING STORMS
DEVELOPED OVER TORRANCE AND NEARBY COMMUNITIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE TORRANCE
AREA...WHERE DANGEROUS ROADWAY FLOODING TRAPPED SOME VEHICLES.
DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN IMPRESSIVE
RAINFALL INTENSITY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR! AN AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATION IN TORRANCE ALSO REPORTED A STORM TOTAL THAT EXCEEDED 3
INCHES.

LATEST 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN AREA OF GOOD INSTABILITY
AND CAPE OVER COASTAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. IN FACT...LIFTED INDEX VALUES BETWEEN -3 AND -4 ARE BEING
PICKED UP BETWEEN PALOS VERDES AND CATALINA ISLAND...WITH CAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG FOR THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS A RESULT...THE LOS ANGELES COASTAL ZONE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE AREA WITH GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORM
CELLS...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE URBAN ROADWAY FLOODING OVER THE
LA BASIN. 00Z NAM ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILE THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OFF THE COAST OF LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...
NONE OF THE STORM CELLS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE BEEN A THREAT TO
THE COLBY AND SPRINGS BURN AREAS...BUT THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
EVENING. SO FAR...RAIN HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT RADAR DOES SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE NATURE
TO THE PRECIPITATION. RAINFALL RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS NEXT FRONT...HOWEVER
LOCALLY REACHING ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF STORMS REACHING THE CRITICAL
ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR THRESHOLD FOR THE SPRINGS AND COLBY BURN
AREAS IS SLIM...IT IS NOT A ZERO CHANCE. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE RECENT BURN
AREAS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
CLOSELY IF CONVECTION COVERAGE INCREASES.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT AND DOWN TO 5000-5500
WED. EVEN WITH THE LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT STILL PUTS US INTO
THE LOWER END OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR LA/VENTURA
MTNS. NO IMPACTS ON THE GRAPEVINE EXPECTED THOUGH.

PRETTY GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING PRECIP COVERAGE WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING AFTERNOON
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.

DRY WEATHER AND A LITTLE WARMER MOST AREAS THU/FRI. A COUPLE OF DYING
COLD FRONTS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THU
THRU FRI BUT LIKELY NO RAIN EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NW TIP OF SLO COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRI FRONT WILL EXIT THE
AREA SAT MORNING LEAVING CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS. WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A BIG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW. COULD HAVE HIGHS NEAR 80 BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...16/2350Z.

AT 2350Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO LOS ANGELES
COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING STEADY
RAIN TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING...SPREADING INTO VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL GENERALLY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...ALONG WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH FRONT.

KLAX...ENE WND COMPONENT UP TO 9KTS WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OFF THE COAST OF PALOS VERDES PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AFTER
03Z...THEN PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 12Z.

KBUR...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AFTER 03Z...THEN PICK UP AGAIN AFTER
12Z.

&&

.MARINE...16/800 PM.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SWELLS WILL PERSIST WITH SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WED.
ANOTHER SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 170036
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER THURSDAY WITH A
WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS STILL
GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH NO
LIGHTNING EXCEPT FOR A FEW STRIKES JUST WEST OF PALOS VERDES EARLIER
TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND COULD
RE-INTRODUCE SOME CONVECTION TO AREAS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THE 18Z NAM HAS SCALED BACK ON THE
INTENSITY OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM, MATCHING BASICALLY WHAT ALL THE OTHER
MODELS WERE SHOWING AT 12Z WHICH WAS STILL A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SYSTEM THAN LAST NIGHT BUT NOT BY MUCH. THERE ARE STILL SOME REASONS
TO SUPPORT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS THOUGH. SATELLITE ESTIMATED WINDS
CONFIRM MODELS INITIALIZATION OF AROUND 120KT JET MAX DIVING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER ABEAM OF THE CA/OR BORDER.
HOWEVER, MODELS WEAKEN THIS QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE PART OF
THE REASON WHY QPF NUMBERS ARE A BIT LOWER THAN THEY WERE
PREVIOUSLY. ALSO, PWAT VALUES NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER,
GENERALLY .75-.90". SO CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH ON AMOUNTS AND WILL
TRIM BACK A BIT TO BE IN LINE WITH LATEST MODELS. RAINFALL RATES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR WITH THE FRONT, THOUGH
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. PROBABLY STILL NOT ENOUGH TO POSE A THREAT TO BURN AREAS
BUT INTERESTS THERE SHOULD STILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE STORM
TONIGHT AND WED.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT AND DOWN TO 5000-5500
WED. EVEN WITH THE LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT STILL PUTS US INTO
THE LOWER END OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR LA/VENTURA
MTNS. NO IMPACTS ON THE GRAPEVINE EXPECTED THOUGH.

PRETTY GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING PRECIP COVERAGE WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING AFTERNOON
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.

DRY WEATHER AND A LITTLE WARMER MOST AREAS THU/FRI. A COUPLE OF DYING
COLD FRONTS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THU
THRU FRI BUT LIKELY NO RAIN EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NW TIP OF SLO COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRI FRONT WILL EXIT THE
AREA SAT MORNING LEAVING CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS. WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A BIG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW. COULD HAVE HIGHS NEAR 80 BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...16/2350Z.

AT 2350Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO LOS ANGELES
COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING STEADY
RAIN TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING...SPREADING INTO VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL GENERALLY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...ALONG WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH FRONT.

KLAX...ENE WND COMPONENT UP TO 9KTS WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OFF THE COAST OF PALOS VERDES PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVTY SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AFTER
03Z...THEN PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 12Z.

KBUR...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AFTER 03Z...THEN PICK UP AGAIN AFTER
12Z.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 AM.

INSTEAD OF VACILLATING BETWEEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND
ONE FOR SEAS...DECIDED TO SIMPLY PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH
THE KNOWLEDGE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A FACTOR LATER TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 170036
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER THURSDAY WITH A
WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS STILL
GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH NO
LIGHTNING EXCEPT FOR A FEW STRIKES JUST WEST OF PALOS VERDES EARLIER
TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND COULD
RE-INTRODUCE SOME CONVECTION TO AREAS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THE 18Z NAM HAS SCALED BACK ON THE
INTENSITY OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM, MATCHING BASICALLY WHAT ALL THE OTHER
MODELS WERE SHOWING AT 12Z WHICH WAS STILL A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SYSTEM THAN LAST NIGHT BUT NOT BY MUCH. THERE ARE STILL SOME REASONS
TO SUPPORT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS THOUGH. SATELLITE ESTIMATED WINDS
CONFIRM MODELS INITIALIZATION OF AROUND 120KT JET MAX DIVING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER ABEAM OF THE CA/OR BORDER.
HOWEVER, MODELS WEAKEN THIS QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE PART OF
THE REASON WHY QPF NUMBERS ARE A BIT LOWER THAN THEY WERE
PREVIOUSLY. ALSO, PWAT VALUES NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER,
GENERALLY .75-.90". SO CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH ON AMOUNTS AND WILL
TRIM BACK A BIT TO BE IN LINE WITH LATEST MODELS. RAINFALL RATES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR WITH THE FRONT, THOUGH
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. PROBABLY STILL NOT ENOUGH TO POSE A THREAT TO BURN AREAS
BUT INTERESTS THERE SHOULD STILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE STORM
TONIGHT AND WED.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT AND DOWN TO 5000-5500
WED. EVEN WITH THE LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT STILL PUTS US INTO
THE LOWER END OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR LA/VENTURA
MTNS. NO IMPACTS ON THE GRAPEVINE EXPECTED THOUGH.

PRETTY GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING PRECIP COVERAGE WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING AFTERNOON
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.

DRY WEATHER AND A LITTLE WARMER MOST AREAS THU/FRI. A COUPLE OF DYING
COLD FRONTS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THU
THRU FRI BUT LIKELY NO RAIN EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NW TIP OF SLO COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRI FRONT WILL EXIT THE
AREA SAT MORNING LEAVING CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS. WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A BIG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW. COULD HAVE HIGHS NEAR 80 BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...16/2350Z.

AT 2350Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO LOS ANGELES
COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING STEADY
RAIN TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING...SPREADING INTO VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL GENERALLY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...ALONG WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH FRONT.

KLAX...ENE WND COMPONENT UP TO 9KTS WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OFF THE COAST OF PALOS VERDES PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVTY SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AFTER
03Z...THEN PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 12Z.

KBUR...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AFTER 03Z...THEN PICK UP AGAIN AFTER
12Z.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 AM.

INSTEAD OF VACILLATING BETWEEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND
ONE FOR SEAS...DECIDED TO SIMPLY PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH
THE KNOWLEDGE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A FACTOR LATER TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 162130
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER THURSDAY WITH A
WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS STILL
GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH NO
LIGHTNING EXCEPT FOR A FEW STRIKES JUST WEST OF PALOS VERDES EARLIER
TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND COULD
RE-INTRODUCE SOME CONVECTION TO AREAS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THE 18Z NAM HAS SCALED BACK ON THE
INTENSITY OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM, MATCHING BASICALLY WHAT ALL THE OTHER
MODELS WERE SHOWING AT 12Z WHICH WAS STILL A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SYSTEM THAN LAST NIGHT BUT NOT BY MUCH. THERE ARE STILL SOME REASONS
TO SUPPORT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS THOUGH. SATELLITE ESTIMATED WINDS
CONFIRM MODELS INITIALIZATION OF AROUND 120KT JET MAX DIVING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER ABEAM OF THE CA/OR BORDER.
HOWEVER, MODELS WEAKEN THIS QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE PART OF
THE REASON WHY QPF NUMBERS ARE A BIT LOWER THAN THEY WERE
PREVIOUSLY. ALSO, PWAT VALUES NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER,
GENERALLY .75-.90". SO CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH ON AMOUNTS AND WILL
TRIM BACK A BIT TO BE IN LINE WITH LATEST MODELS. RAINFALL RATES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR WITH THE FRONT, THOUGH
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. PROBABLY STILL NOT ENOUGH TO POSE A THREAT TO BURN AREAS
BUT INTERESTS THERE SHOULD STILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE STORM
TONIGHT AND WED.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT AND DOWN TO 5000-5500
WED. EVEN WITH THE LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT STILL PUTS US INTO
THE LOWER END OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR LA/VENTURA
MTNS. NO IMPACTS ON THE GRAPEVINE EXPECTED THOUGH.

PRETTY GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING PRECIP COVERAGE WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING AFTERNOON
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.

DRY WEATHER AND A LITTLE WARMER MOST AREAS THU/FRI. A COUPLE OF DYING
COLD FRONTS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THU
THRU FRI BUT LIKELY NO RAIN EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NW TIP OF SLO COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRI FRONT WILL EXIT THE
AREA SAT MORNING LEAVING CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS. WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A BIG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW. COULD HAVE HIGHS NEAR 80 BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1800Z.

AT 1809Z AT KLAX...A SMALL INVERSION WAS BASED AT 1900 FEET WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 2650 FEET AND 9 DEGREES CELSIUS.

A FLURRY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS COMING TO A CLOSE LATE THIS
MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA. IT MAY ACTUALLY BE DRY
ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AFFECTING TAFS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
EVENING AND TAFS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON KLGB THIS AFTERNOON AS
THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA. FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH NEXT FRONT.

KLAX AND KBUR...DRY TODAY WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MVFR TO
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS SETTLE IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
NEXT RAIN MAKER. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 AM.

INSTEAD OF VACILLATING BETWEEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND
ONE FOR SEAS...DECIDED TO SIMPLY PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH
THE KNOWLEDGE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A FACTOR LATER TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 161913
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1110 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM...
STRONGER THAN MONDAYS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THE WEEK.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND SLIGHT
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH BEST CHANCES OVER LA AND SLO COUNTIES. BEST
INSTABILITY IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, BUT ESPECIALLY OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST AND FROM SANTA MONICA BAY SOUTH. AN ISOLATED STORM IS
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
WATERSPOUTS.

NEXT SYSTEM STILL ON SCHEDULE FOR TONIGHT, FIRST THIS EVENING ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND FINALLY EXITING LA COUNTY BY AROUND 10 AM WED.
THIS ONE SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER BETTER THAN THE STORM LAST NIGHT WHICH
FIZZLED ACROSS EAST OF SBA. TONIGHT`S STORM HAS BETTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND COLD AIR, THOUGH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM MODEL OUTPUT
OF RAINFALL IS GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THIS SEEMS A BIT
UNDERDONE AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HEAVIER NAM WHICH IS CLOSER TO
OUR HALF INCH PREDICTION ON AVERAGE WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MTNS. RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION THOUGH MAY BE VERY
HAPHAZARD AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT DUE TO CONVECTION. WHILE THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE RAINFALL RATES HIGHER THAN .33"/HR,
CONVECTION, WITH OR WITHOUT LIGHTNING COULD GENERATE ISOLATED RATES
UP TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR, MAKING THIS A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE
BURN AREAS. WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD OF IT HAPPENING NEAR A BURN AREA IS
PRETTY SMALL, IT`S NOT ZERO. WILL RE-EVALUATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
LEANING TOWARDS NOT ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

NVA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MTNS.

A LITTLE RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND IT WILL BE
DRY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF COOL AIR NEAR THE SFC AND DESPITE THE
EXTRA SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HGTS MAX TEMPS WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH.

IN FACT MAX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE BAREST OF TROFS MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MOST LIKELY
ALL IT WILL DO IS BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND KEEP A
DAMPER THE MAX TEMPS. STILL THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OVER
SLO COUNTY JUST IN CASE THE FRONT CAN HOLD TOGETHER.

DRY NW FLOW SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LARGE EAST PAC UPPER HIGH
THAT WILL NOSE INTO SRN CA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE EACH DAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NORMAL
SUNDAY AND THEN TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.

NOT THAT ANYONE SHOULD BE ENCOURAGED TO TRUST DAY 9 FORECASTS...BUT
AT THIS TIME ALL LONG RANGE MDLS POINT TO A DRY AND PLEASANT
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1800Z.

AT 1809Z AT KLAX...A SMALL INVERSION WAS BASED AT 1900 FEET WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 2650 FEET AND 9 DEGREES CELSIUS.

A FLURRY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS COMING TO A CLOSE LATE THIS
MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA. IT MAY ACTUALLY BE DRY
ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AFFECTING TAFS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
EVENING AND TAFS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON KLGB THIS AFTERNOON AS
THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA. FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH NEXT FRONT.

KLAX AND KBUR...DRY TODAY WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MVFR TO
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS SETTLE IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
NEXT RAIN MAKER. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 AM.

INSTEAD OF VACILLATING BETWEEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND
ONE FOR SEAS...DECIDED TO SIMPLY PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH
THE KNOWLEDGE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A FACTOR LATER TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 161913
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1110 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM...
STRONGER THAN MONDAYS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THE WEEK.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND SLIGHT
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH BEST CHANCES OVER LA AND SLO COUNTIES. BEST
INSTABILITY IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, BUT ESPECIALLY OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST AND FROM SANTA MONICA BAY SOUTH. AN ISOLATED STORM IS
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
WATERSPOUTS.

NEXT SYSTEM STILL ON SCHEDULE FOR TONIGHT, FIRST THIS EVENING ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND FINALLY EXITING LA COUNTY BY AROUND 10 AM WED.
THIS ONE SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER BETTER THAN THE STORM LAST NIGHT WHICH
FIZZLED ACROSS EAST OF SBA. TONIGHT`S STORM HAS BETTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND COLD AIR, THOUGH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM MODEL OUTPUT
OF RAINFALL IS GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THIS SEEMS A BIT
UNDERDONE AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HEAVIER NAM WHICH IS CLOSER TO
OUR HALF INCH PREDICTION ON AVERAGE WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MTNS. RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION THOUGH MAY BE VERY
HAPHAZARD AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT DUE TO CONVECTION. WHILE THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE RAINFALL RATES HIGHER THAN .33"/HR,
CONVECTION, WITH OR WITHOUT LIGHTNING COULD GENERATE ISOLATED RATES
UP TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR, MAKING THIS A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE
BURN AREAS. WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD OF IT HAPPENING NEAR A BURN AREA IS
PRETTY SMALL, IT`S NOT ZERO. WILL RE-EVALUATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
LEANING TOWARDS NOT ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

NVA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MTNS.

A LITTLE RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND IT WILL BE
DRY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF COOL AIR NEAR THE SFC AND DESPITE THE
EXTRA SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HGTS MAX TEMPS WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH.

IN FACT MAX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE BAREST OF TROFS MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MOST LIKELY
ALL IT WILL DO IS BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND KEEP A
DAMPER THE MAX TEMPS. STILL THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OVER
SLO COUNTY JUST IN CASE THE FRONT CAN HOLD TOGETHER.

DRY NW FLOW SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LARGE EAST PAC UPPER HIGH
THAT WILL NOSE INTO SRN CA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE EACH DAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NORMAL
SUNDAY AND THEN TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.

NOT THAT ANYONE SHOULD BE ENCOURAGED TO TRUST DAY 9 FORECASTS...BUT
AT THIS TIME ALL LONG RANGE MDLS POINT TO A DRY AND PLEASANT
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1800Z.

AT 1809Z AT KLAX...A SMALL INVERSION WAS BASED AT 1900 FEET WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 2650 FEET AND 9 DEGREES CELSIUS.

A FLURRY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS COMING TO A CLOSE LATE THIS
MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA. IT MAY ACTUALLY BE DRY
ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AFFECTING TAFS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
EVENING AND TAFS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON KLGB THIS AFTERNOON AS
THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA. FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH NEXT FRONT.

KLAX AND KBUR...DRY TODAY WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MVFR TO
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS SETTLE IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
NEXT RAIN MAKER. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...16/900 AM.

INSTEAD OF VACILLATING BETWEEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND
ONE FOR SEAS...DECIDED TO SIMPLY PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH
THE KNOWLEDGE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A FACTOR LATER TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 161733
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM...
STRONGER THAN MONDAYS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THE WEEK.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND SLIGHT
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH BEST CHANCES OVER LA AND SLO COUNTIES. BEST
INSTABILITY IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, BUT ESPECIALLY OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST AND FROM SANTA MONICA BAY SOUTH. AN ISOLATED STORM IS
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
WATERSPOUTS.

NEXT SYSTEM STILL ON SCHEDULE FOR TONIGHT, FIRST THIS EVENING ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND FINALLY EXITING LA COUNTY BY AROUND 10 AM WED.
THIS ONE SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER BETTER THAN THE STORM LAST NIGHT WHICH
FIZZLED ACROSS EAST OF SBA. TONIGHT`S STORM HAS BETTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND COLD AIR, THOUGH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM MODEL OUTPUT
OF RAINFALL IS GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THIS SEEMS A BIT
UNDERDONE AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HEAVIER NAM WHICH IS CLOSER TO
OUR HALF INCH PREDICTION ON AVERAGE WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MTNS. RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION THOUGH MAY BE VERY
HAPHAZARD AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT DUE TO CONVECTION. WHILE THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE RAINFALL RATES HIGHER THAN .33"/HR,
CONVECTION, WITH OR WITHOUT LIGHTNING COULD GENERATE ISOLATED RATES
UP TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR, MAKING THIS A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE
BURN AREAS. WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD OF IT HAPPENING NEAR A BURN AREA IS
PRETTY SMALL, IT`S NOT ZERO. WILL RE-EVALUATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
LEANING TOWARDS NOT ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

NVA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MTNS.

A LITTLE RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND IT WILL BE
DRY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF COOL AIR NEAR THE SFC AND DESPITE THE
EXTRA SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HGTS MAX TEMPS WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH.

IN FACT MAX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE BAREST OF TROFS MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MOST LIKELY
ALL IT WILL DO IS BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND KEEP A
DAMPER THE MAX TEMPS. STILL THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OVER
SLO COUNTY JUST IN CASE THE FRONT CAN HOLD TOGETHER.

DRY NW FLOW SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LARGE EAST PAC UPPER HIGH
THAT WILL NOSE INTO SRN CA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE EACH DAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NORMAL
SUNDAY AND THEN TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.

NOT THAT ANYONE SHOULD BE ENCOURAGED TO TRUST DAY 9 FORECASTS...BUT
AT THIS TIME ALL LONG RANGE MDLS POINT TO A DRY AND PLEASANT
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/12Z.

AT 0930Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION IN THE GENERAL 00Z-10Z
TIMEFRAME.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.  WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS.  ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK TO THE AREA IN THE 08Z-12Z TIMEFRAME.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.  WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA IN THE 08Z-12Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.MARINE...16/300 AM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND FOR ZONE 645 THROUGH LATE
TODAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT WITH A FORTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF INCREASING ENOUGH TO
SQUEAK ABOVE.  A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT CONDITIONS NEAR AREA HARBOR
ENTRANCES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 161219
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

...AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM...
STRONGER THAN MONDAYS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THE WEEK.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY AND WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
A TROF IS MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA RIGHT NOW AND A VORT LOBE ON ITS
SOUTHERN END IS BRING QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO VENTURA AND
LA COUNTY. A LARGE MASS OF SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE VORT LOBE IS OVER
THE WATERS TO THE WSW OF L.A. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
VTA AND LA DURING THIS MORNING. SBA AND SLO COUNTIES WILL NOT BE
AFFECTED BY THE VORT LOBE AND THEY WILL ONLY HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS
TODAY. MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ONTO LA COUNTY AND
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVER THAT AREA WHILE ONLY A CHC OF
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER VTA COUNTY. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE WATERS
DESTABILIZES WITH LI`S NEAR -2 AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
TSTM.

TONIGHT AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE CA NV BORDER. A TROF ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE. RAIN WITH THIS TROF
IS A NEAR CERTAINTY AND WILL SPREAD FROM NW SLO COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO L.A. COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOTS OF LIFT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
TO THE ENTIRE AREA. THE TSTMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY RIGHT ALONG WITH
THE FRONT. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FRONT AND SHOWERS WILL BE IN LA
COUNTY THERE WILL JUST BE A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SLO
SBA AND VTA COUNTIES BEHIND THE FRONT. BY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL
BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR AND THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE POOL OF
INSTABILITY OVER LA COUNTY AND ADJACENT WATERS AND THIS SHOULD BE
GOOD FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM.

THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF COLD AIR AND WHILE SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OUT AT 6500 FEET THEY WILL DROP TO NEAR 5000 FEET
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET BUT ANY
DECENT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ABOVE 6500 FEET WHERE 4 TO 8 INCHES COULD
FALL.

TODAYS SYSTEMS WILL BE STRONGER THAN MONDAYS (BUT STILL MUCH WEAKER
THAN LAST FRIDAYS) MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN
INCH OF RAIN. RAINFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM .25 TO .33
INCHES PER HOUR BUT SOME RATES OF .50 INCH PER HOUR CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ESP WITH ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS SO PEOPLE IN AND AROUND THE BURN
AREA WILL NEED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.

NVA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MTNS.

A LITTLE RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND IT WILL BE
DRY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF COOL AIR NEAR THE SFC AND DESPITE THE
EXTRA SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HGTS MAX TEMPS WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH.

IN FACT MAX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE BAREST OF TROFS MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MOST LIKELY
ALL IT WILL DO IS BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND KEEP A
DAMPER THE MAX TEMPS. STILL THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OVER
SLO COUNTY JUST IN CASE THE FRONT CAN HOLD TOGETHER.

DRY NW FLOW SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LARGE EAST PAC UPPER HIGH
THAT WILL NOSE INTO SRN CA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE EACH DAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NORMAL
SUNDAY AND THEN TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.

NOT THAT ANYONE SHOULD BE ENCOURAGED TO TRUST DAY 9 FORECASTS...BUT
AT THIS TIME ALL LONG RANGE MDLS POINT TO A DRY AND PLEASANT
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/12Z.

AT 0930Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION IN THE GENERAL 00Z-10Z
TIMEFRAME.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.  WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS.  ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK TO THE AREA IN THE 08Z-12Z TIMEFRAME.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.  WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA IN THE 08Z-12Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.MARINE...16/300 AM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND FOR ZONE 645 THROUGH LATE
TODAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT WITH A FORTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF INCREASING ENOUGH TO
SQUEAK ABOVE.  A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT CONDITIONS NEAR AREA HARBOR
ENTRANCES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 161148
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM...STRONGER THAN MONDAYS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
WEEK. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
A TROF IS MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA RIGHT NOW AND A VORT LOBE ON ITS
SOUTHERN END IS BRING QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO VENTURA AND
LA COUNTY. A LARGE MASS OF SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE VORT LOBE IS OVER
THE WATERS TO THE WSW OF L.A. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
VTA AND LA DURING THIS MORNING. SBA AND SLO COUNTIES WILL NOT BE
AFFECTED BY THE VORT LOBE AND THEY WILL ONLY HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS
TODAY. MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ONTO LA COUNTY AND
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVER THAT AREA WHILE ONLY A CHC OF
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER VTA COUNTY. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE WATERS
DESTABILIZES WITH LI`S NEAR -2 AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
TSTM.

TONIGHT AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE CA NV BORDER. A TROF ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE. RAIN WITH THIS TROF
IS A NEAR CERTAINTY AND WILL SPREAD FROM NW SLO COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO L.A. COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOTS OF LIFT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
TO THE ENTIRE AREA. THE TSTMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY RIGHT ALONG WITH
THE FRONT. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FRONT AND SHOWERS WILL BE IN LA
COUNTY THERE WILL JUST BE A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SLO
SBA AND VTA COUNTIES BEHIND THE FRONT. BY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL
BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR AND THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE POOL OF
INSTABILITY OVER LA COUNTY AND ADJACENT WATERS AND THIS SHOULD BE
GOOD FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM.

THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF COLD AIR AND WHILE SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OUT AT 6500 FEET THEY WILL DROP TO NEAR 5000 FEET
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET BUT ANY
DECENT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ABOVE 6500 FEET WHERE 4 TO 8 INCHES COULD
FALL.

TODAYS SYSTEMS WILL BE STRONGER THAN MONDAYS (BUT STILL MUCH WEAKER
THAN LAST FRIDAYS) MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN
INCH OF RAIN. RAINFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM .25 TO .33
INCHES PER HOUR BUT SOME RATES OF .50 INCH PER HOUR CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ESP WITH ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS SO PEOPLE IN AND AROUND THE BURN
AREA WILL NEED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.

NVA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MTNS.

A LITTLE RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND IT WILL BE
DRY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF COOL AIR NEAR THE SFC AND DESPITE THE
EXTRA SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HGTS MAX TEMPS WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH.

IN FACT MAX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE BAREST OF TROFS MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MOST LIKELY
ALL IT WILL DO IS BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND KEEP A
DAMPER THE MAX TEMPS. STILL THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OVER
SLO COUNTY JUST IN CASE THE FRONT CAN HOLD TOGETHER.

DRY NW FLOW SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LARGE EAST PAC UPPER HIGH
THAT WILL NOSE INTO SRN CA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE EACH DAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NORMAL
SUNDAY AND THEN TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.

NOT THAT ANYONE SHOULD BE ENCOURAGED TO TRUST DAY 9 FORECASTS...BUT
AT THIS TIME ALL LONG RANGE MDLS POINT TO A DRY AND PLEASANT
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.


&&

.AVIATION...

16/0025Z

AT 0530Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE INVERSION.



KLAX...

KBUR...

&&

.MARINE...

15/900 AM



&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 161148
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM...STRONGER THAN MONDAYS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
WEEK. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
A TROF IS MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA RIGHT NOW AND A VORT LOBE ON ITS
SOUTHERN END IS BRING QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO VENTURA AND
LA COUNTY. A LARGE MASS OF SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE VORT LOBE IS OVER
THE WATERS TO THE WSW OF L.A. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
VTA AND LA DURING THIS MORNING. SBA AND SLO COUNTIES WILL NOT BE
AFFECTED BY THE VORT LOBE AND THEY WILL ONLY HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS
TODAY. MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ONTO LA COUNTY AND
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVER THAT AREA WHILE ONLY A CHC OF
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER VTA COUNTY. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE WATERS
DESTABILIZES WITH LI`S NEAR -2 AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
TSTM.

TONIGHT AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE CA NV BORDER. A TROF ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE. RAIN WITH THIS TROF
IS A NEAR CERTAINTY AND WILL SPREAD FROM NW SLO COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO L.A. COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOTS OF LIFT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
TO THE ENTIRE AREA. THE TSTMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY RIGHT ALONG WITH
THE FRONT. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FRONT AND SHOWERS WILL BE IN LA
COUNTY THERE WILL JUST BE A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SLO
SBA AND VTA COUNTIES BEHIND THE FRONT. BY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL
BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR AND THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE POOL OF
INSTABILITY OVER LA COUNTY AND ADJACENT WATERS AND THIS SHOULD BE
GOOD FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM.

THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF COLD AIR AND WHILE SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OUT AT 6500 FEET THEY WILL DROP TO NEAR 5000 FEET
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET BUT ANY
DECENT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ABOVE 6500 FEET WHERE 4 TO 8 INCHES COULD
FALL.

TODAYS SYSTEMS WILL BE STRONGER THAN MONDAYS (BUT STILL MUCH WEAKER
THAN LAST FRIDAYS) MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN
INCH OF RAIN. RAINFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM .25 TO .33
INCHES PER HOUR BUT SOME RATES OF .50 INCH PER HOUR CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ESP WITH ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS SO PEOPLE IN AND AROUND THE BURN
AREA WILL NEED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.

NVA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MTNS.

A LITTLE RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND IT WILL BE
DRY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF COOL AIR NEAR THE SFC AND DESPITE THE
EXTRA SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HGTS MAX TEMPS WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH.

IN FACT MAX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE BAREST OF TROFS MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MOST LIKELY
ALL IT WILL DO IS BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND KEEP A
DAMPER THE MAX TEMPS. STILL THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OVER
SLO COUNTY JUST IN CASE THE FRONT CAN HOLD TOGETHER.

DRY NW FLOW SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LARGE EAST PAC UPPER HIGH
THAT WILL NOSE INTO SRN CA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE EACH DAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NORMAL
SUNDAY AND THEN TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.

NOT THAT ANYONE SHOULD BE ENCOURAGED TO TRUST DAY 9 FORECASTS...BUT
AT THIS TIME ALL LONG RANGE MDLS POINT TO A DRY AND PLEASANT
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.


&&

.AVIATION...

16/0025Z

AT 0530Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE INVERSION.



KLAX...

KBUR...

&&

.MARINE...

15/900 AM



&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 160554
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PST MON DEC 15 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS TO
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SBA/VTU COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES AS WELL AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO L.A.
COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 0.15 INCH PER HOUR OR
LESS...WHILE ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE PRODUCING RATES UP TO
0.50 INCH PER HOUR ALONG THE SLO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST. MANY AREAS
SHOULD RECEIVE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00 INCH OR MORE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER SLO/SBA
COUNTIES AND UPSLOPE AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO ABOUT 6500 TO
7000 FEET TONIGHT...WITH AN MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE
7000 FEET. GUSTY SE WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON TUESDAY OVER THE AREA.
ANOTHER E PAC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST LATE
TUE WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
TUE EVENING AND THEN PUSH QUICKLY SE ACROSS VTU/L.A. COUNTIES TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL IN MANY AREAS ON WED
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES
THANKS TO COLD AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO THE INSTABILITY. IT LOOKS
LIKE RAINFALL WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT HIGHER WITH
AROUND 0.33 TO 0.75 INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH UPSLOPE AREAS
UP TO 1.50 INCHES. RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND A
QUARTER INCH PER HOUR...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.
INTERESTS IN AND NEAR BURN AREAS SHOULD MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS WITH
THIS STORM. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 5500 TO 6000 FEET TUESDAY THRU
TUE NIGHT...THEN TO AS LOW AS 5000 FEET ON WED. SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES TUE NIGHT
ABOVE 6000 FEET...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON WED. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM FOR THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS. GUSTY S WINDS WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH GUSTY S
TO SW WINDS IN THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS LATER TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED.

THERE SHOULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON THE N
SLOPES WED NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT AND THU. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
THE ANTELOPE VLY AND THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MTNS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR
WED NIGHT. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS SHOULD
AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS WED EVENING. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR TUE THRU THU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN ALL AREAS THRU THE PERIOD.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
LAST SYSTEM MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, THOUGH MODELS DO
SEEM TO BE SHIFTING TOWARDS A WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHENEVER THAT
DOES HAPPEN WITH MINIMAL PRECIP AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH
OF PT CONCEPTION. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A DRY AND WARMER
FORECAST BEGINNING SAT AFTERNOON AND LASTING PERHAPS QUITE A WHILE
WITH PERIODS OF OFFSHORE FLOW NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...16/06Z.

AT 0530Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS
TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z. GUSTY SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.
GUSTY SE WINDS UP TO 10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z. GUSTY SE
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...15/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED IN ZONE PZZ673 AND PZZ650
THRU LATE TONIGHT DUE TO GUSTY SE WINDS. OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR HAZARD SEAS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS
INCREASING TO SCA LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE OUTER WATERS
LATER TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...JLD/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 160554
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PST MON DEC 15 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS TO
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SBA/VTU COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES AS WELL AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO L.A.
COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 0.15 INCH PER HOUR OR
LESS...WHILE ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE PRODUCING RATES UP TO
0.50 INCH PER HOUR ALONG THE SLO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST. MANY AREAS
SHOULD RECEIVE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00 INCH OR MORE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER SLO/SBA
COUNTIES AND UPSLOPE AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO ABOUT 6500 TO
7000 FEET TONIGHT...WITH AN MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE
7000 FEET. GUSTY SE WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON TUESDAY OVER THE AREA.
ANOTHER E PAC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST LATE
TUE WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
TUE EVENING AND THEN PUSH QUICKLY SE ACROSS VTU/L.A. COUNTIES TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL IN MANY AREAS ON WED
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES
THANKS TO COLD AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO THE INSTABILITY. IT LOOKS
LIKE RAINFALL WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT HIGHER WITH
AROUND 0.33 TO 0.75 INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH UPSLOPE AREAS
UP TO 1.50 INCHES. RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND A
QUARTER INCH PER HOUR...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.
INTERESTS IN AND NEAR BURN AREAS SHOULD MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS WITH
THIS STORM. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 5500 TO 6000 FEET TUESDAY THRU
TUE NIGHT...THEN TO AS LOW AS 5000 FEET ON WED. SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES TUE NIGHT
ABOVE 6000 FEET...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON WED. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM FOR THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS. GUSTY S WINDS WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH GUSTY S
TO SW WINDS IN THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS LATER TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED.

THERE SHOULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON THE N
SLOPES WED NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT AND THU. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
THE ANTELOPE VLY AND THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MTNS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR
WED NIGHT. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS SHOULD
AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS WED EVENING. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR TUE THRU THU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN ALL AREAS THRU THE PERIOD.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
LAST SYSTEM MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, THOUGH MODELS DO
SEEM TO BE SHIFTING TOWARDS A WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHENEVER THAT
DOES HAPPEN WITH MINIMAL PRECIP AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH
OF PT CONCEPTION. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A DRY AND WARMER
FORECAST BEGINNING SAT AFTERNOON AND LASTING PERHAPS QUITE A WHILE
WITH PERIODS OF OFFSHORE FLOW NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...16/06Z.

AT 0530Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS
TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z. GUSTY SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.
GUSTY SE WINDS UP TO 10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z. GUSTY SE
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...15/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED IN ZONE PZZ673 AND PZZ650
THRU LATE TONIGHT DUE TO GUSTY SE WINDS. OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR HAZARD SEAS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS
INCREASING TO SCA LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE OUTER WATERS
LATER TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...JLD/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 160521
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 PM PST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS TO
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SBA/VTU COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES AS WELL AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO L.A.
COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 0.15 INCH PER HOUR OR
LESS...WHILE ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE PRODUCING RATES UP TO
0.50 INCH PER HOUR ALONG THE SLO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST. MANY AREAS
SHOULD RECEIVE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00 INCH OR MORE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER SLO/SBA
COUNTIES AND UPSLOPE AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO ABOUT 6500 TO
7000 FEET TONIGHT...WITH AN MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE
7000 FEET. GUSTY SE WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON TUESDAY OVER THE AREA.
ANOTHER E PAC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST LATE
TUE WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
TUE EVENING AND THEN PUSH QUICKLY SE ACROSS VTU/L.A. COUNTIES TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL IN MANY AREAS ON WED
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES
THANKS TO COLD AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO THE INSTABILITY. IT LOOKS
LIKE RAINFALL WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT HIGHER WITH
AROUND 0.33 TO 0.75 INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH UPSLOPE AREAS
UP TO 1.50 INCHES. RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND A
QUARTER INCH PER HOUR...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.
INTERESTS IN AND NEAR BURN AREAS SHOULD MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS WITH
THIS STORM. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 5500 TO 6000 FEET TUESDAY THRU
TUE NIGHT...THEN TO AS LOW AS 5000 FEET ON WED. SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES TUE NIGHT
ABOVE 6000 FEET...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON WED. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM FOR THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS. GUSTY S WINDS WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH GUSTY S
TO SW WINDS IN THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS LATER TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED.

THERE SHOULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON THE N
SLOPES WED NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT AND THU. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
THE ANTELOPE VLY AND THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MTNS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR
WED NIGHT. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS SHOULD
AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS WED EVENING. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR TUE THRU THU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN ALL AREAS THRU THE PERIOD.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
LAST SYSTEM MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, THOUGH MODELS DO
SEEM TO BE SHIFTING TOWARDS A WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHENEVER THAT
DOES HAPPEN WITH MINIMAL PRECIP AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH
OF PT CONCEPTION. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A DRY AND WARMER
FORECAST BEGINNING SAT AFTERNOON AND LASTING PERHAPS QUITE A WHILE
WITH PERIODS OF OFFSHORE FLOW NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0025Z.

AT 2335Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE INVERSION.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS AND VFR CIGS TO THE
AIRFIELDS...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KWJF AND KPMD ABOUT
12Z-18Z TUE. THERE IS ALSO A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE MVFR CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS MAY AFFECT THE COAST AND VLY AIRFIELDS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING. GUSTY SE WINDS AT KSMX AND KSBA WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. SHOWERS AND VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
ALSO A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD AT TIMES TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. A PERIOD OF SE WINDS UP
TO 10 KT IS FORECAST 06Z-10Z TONIGHT.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. SHOWERS AND VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
ALSO A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD AT TIMES TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...15/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED IN ZONE PZZ673 AND PZZ650
THRU LATE TONIGHT DUE TO GUSTY SE WINDS. OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR HAZARD SEAS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS
INCREASING TO SCA LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE OUTER WATERS
LATER TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...JLD/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 160521
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 PM PST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS TO
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SBA/VTU COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES AS WELL AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO L.A.
COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 0.15 INCH PER HOUR OR
LESS...WHILE ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE PRODUCING RATES UP TO
0.50 INCH PER HOUR ALONG THE SLO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST. MANY AREAS
SHOULD RECEIVE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00 INCH OR MORE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER SLO/SBA
COUNTIES AND UPSLOPE AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO ABOUT 6500 TO
7000 FEET TONIGHT...WITH AN MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE
7000 FEET. GUSTY SE WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON TUESDAY OVER THE AREA.
ANOTHER E PAC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST LATE
TUE WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
TUE EVENING AND THEN PUSH QUICKLY SE ACROSS VTU/L.A. COUNTIES TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL IN MANY AREAS ON WED
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES
THANKS TO COLD AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO THE INSTABILITY. IT LOOKS
LIKE RAINFALL WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT HIGHER WITH
AROUND 0.33 TO 0.75 INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH UPSLOPE AREAS
UP TO 1.50 INCHES. RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND A
QUARTER INCH PER HOUR...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.
INTERESTS IN AND NEAR BURN AREAS SHOULD MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS WITH
THIS STORM. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 5500 TO 6000 FEET TUESDAY THRU
TUE NIGHT...THEN TO AS LOW AS 5000 FEET ON WED. SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES TUE NIGHT
ABOVE 6000 FEET...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON WED. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM FOR THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS. GUSTY S WINDS WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH GUSTY S
TO SW WINDS IN THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS LATER TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED.

THERE SHOULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON THE N
SLOPES WED NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT AND THU. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
THE ANTELOPE VLY AND THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MTNS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR
WED NIGHT. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS SHOULD
AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS WED EVENING. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR TUE THRU THU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN ALL AREAS THRU THE PERIOD.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
LAST SYSTEM MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, THOUGH MODELS DO
SEEM TO BE SHIFTING TOWARDS A WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHENEVER THAT
DOES HAPPEN WITH MINIMAL PRECIP AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH
OF PT CONCEPTION. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A DRY AND WARMER
FORECAST BEGINNING SAT AFTERNOON AND LASTING PERHAPS QUITE A WHILE
WITH PERIODS OF OFFSHORE FLOW NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0025Z.

AT 2335Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE INVERSION.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS AND VFR CIGS TO THE
AIRFIELDS...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KWJF AND KPMD ABOUT
12Z-18Z TUE. THERE IS ALSO A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE MVFR CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS MAY AFFECT THE COAST AND VLY AIRFIELDS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING. GUSTY SE WINDS AT KSMX AND KSBA WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. SHOWERS AND VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
ALSO A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD AT TIMES TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. A PERIOD OF SE WINDS UP
TO 10 KT IS FORECAST 06Z-10Z TONIGHT.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. SHOWERS AND VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
ALSO A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD AT TIMES TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...15/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED IN ZONE PZZ673 AND PZZ650
THRU LATE TONIGHT DUE TO GUSTY SE WINDS. OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR HAZARD SEAS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS
INCREASING TO SCA LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE OUTER WATERS
LATER TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...JLD/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 160032 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 PM PST MON DEC 15 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...A FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK, AGAIN MOSTLY NIGHTTIME EVENTS. FIRST ONE
IS INTO SLO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE
BEEN PRETTY LIGHT, EVERYTHING WELL UNDER .10/HR, AND LIGHTER THAN
RADAR WOULD SUGGEST. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE OFF BIG
SUR EARLIER TODAY I DON`T SEE TSTORMS BEING A FACTOR TONIGHT. THE
NAM DOES SHOW AN AREA OF -3 LI`S OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THOUGH
SATELLITE SOUNDERS ESTIMATE LI`S CLOSER TO 0 AND AND THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE INSTABILITY WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF EVENTS
IN OUR AREA. SO I`M GOING TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH
THIS FIRST EVENT. RAINFALL ALSO NOT LOOKING PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW RATES CURRENTLY IN SRN MONTEREY COUNTY.
THERE IS SOME DECENT SOUTHEAST LOW LVL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUT THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST. AND THAT SOUTHEAST FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH SO PROBABLY NOT A LOT OF OROGRAPHICS DOWN SOUTH
EITHER. SO OVERALL A PRETTY WEAK EVENT TONIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A HALF INCH AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS JUST AN INCH OR
TWO AT MOST.

A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A LOT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY BUT JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MOST. IF WE GET A LITTLE
SUNSHINE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON HEATING TO GENERATE SOME
LIFT AND SOME BRIEF MODERATE SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS LA COUNTY.

NEXT SYSTEM ON TRACK FOR A TUESDAY NIGHT ARRIVAL. EVENING FOR
CENTRAL COAST AND AFTER MIDNIGHT WED IN LA COUNTY. THIS ONE NOW
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE THREE, THOUGH STILL AN ORDER OF
MAGNITUDE WEAKER THAN EITHER OF LAST WEEK`S STORMS. A LITTLE BETTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MORE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND BETTER COLD AIR
ALOFT AS WELL. RAIN RATES SHOULD BE HIGHER TUESDAY NIGHT THAN WITH
THE STORM TONIGHT, THOUGH IT WOULD DEFINITELY BE A STRETCH TO GET
HALF INCH RAINFALL RATES OUT OF THE FRONT. LOOKS MORE LIKE QUARTER
TO THIRD OF AN INCH WHICH IS BELOW USGS THRESHOLDS FOR MUD AND
DEBRIS FLOWS. HOWEVER, WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN WEDNESDAY
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD LIKELY
BOOST RATES OVER A HALF INCH PER HOUR. WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A BURN AREA FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE TUE AND WED.

WITHOUT THE CONVECTION MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS SHOULD SEE AROUND
A HALF INCH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE UPSLOPE AREAS GET BETWEEN 1 AND
1.5". WILL LIKELY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS WE EXPECT AROUND 6" OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET AND 1-3" DOWN TO
AROUND 5000` OR SO. CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO SOME FLAKES DOWN TO
AROUND THE GRAPEVINE LEVEL 4000-4500` BUT LIKELY LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHLY
VARIABLE PRECIP AMOUNTS, ANYWHERE FROM BASICALLY ZERO TO AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OR SO IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. I EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME SUNSHINE WED IN BETWEEN SHOWERS.

DRYING OUT WED NIGHT AND THU EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING NORTH SLOPE
PRECIP NEAR THE GRAPEVINE. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH SYSTEM #3 ALREADY
BRINGING IN SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP N OF PT CONCEPTION BY THU
AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS A BIT FAST AND AM FOLLOWING THE SLOWER NAM
SOLUTION HERE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
LAST SYSTEM MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, THOUGH MODELS DO
SEEM TO BE SHIFTING TOWARDS A WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHENEVER THAT
DOES HAPPEN WITH MINIMAL PRECIP AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH
OF PT CONCEPTION. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A DRY AND WARMER
FORECAST BEGINNING SAT AFTERNOON AND LASTING PERHAPS QUITE A WHILE
WITH PERIODS OF OFFSHORE FLOW NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0025Z.

AT 2335Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE INVERSION.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS AND VFR CIGS TO THE
AIRFIELDS...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KWJF AND KPMD ABOUT
12Z-18Z TUE. THERE IS ALSO A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE MVFR CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS MAY AFFECT THE COAST AND VLY AIRFIELDS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING. GUSTY SE WINDS AT KSMX AND KSBA WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. SHOWERS AND VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
ALSO A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD AT TIMES TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. A PERIOD OF SE WINDS UP
TO 10 KT IS FORECAST 06Z-10Z TONIGHT.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. SHOWERS AND VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
ALSO A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD AT TIMES TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...15/130 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE FAR NORTH...LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE OUTER WATERS
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 160032 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 PM PST MON DEC 15 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...A FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK, AGAIN MOSTLY NIGHTTIME EVENTS. FIRST ONE
IS INTO SLO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE
BEEN PRETTY LIGHT, EVERYTHING WELL UNDER .10/HR, AND LIGHTER THAN
RADAR WOULD SUGGEST. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE OFF BIG
SUR EARLIER TODAY I DON`T SEE TSTORMS BEING A FACTOR TONIGHT. THE
NAM DOES SHOW AN AREA OF -3 LI`S OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THOUGH
SATELLITE SOUNDERS ESTIMATE LI`S CLOSER TO 0 AND AND THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE INSTABILITY WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF EVENTS
IN OUR AREA. SO I`M GOING TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH
THIS FIRST EVENT. RAINFALL ALSO NOT LOOKING PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW RATES CURRENTLY IN SRN MONTEREY COUNTY.
THERE IS SOME DECENT SOUTHEAST LOW LVL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUT THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST. AND THAT SOUTHEAST FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH SO PROBABLY NOT A LOT OF OROGRAPHICS DOWN SOUTH
EITHER. SO OVERALL A PRETTY WEAK EVENT TONIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A HALF INCH AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS JUST AN INCH OR
TWO AT MOST.

A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A LOT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY BUT JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MOST. IF WE GET A LITTLE
SUNSHINE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON HEATING TO GENERATE SOME
LIFT AND SOME BRIEF MODERATE SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS LA COUNTY.

NEXT SYSTEM ON TRACK FOR A TUESDAY NIGHT ARRIVAL. EVENING FOR
CENTRAL COAST AND AFTER MIDNIGHT WED IN LA COUNTY. THIS ONE NOW
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE THREE, THOUGH STILL AN ORDER OF
MAGNITUDE WEAKER THAN EITHER OF LAST WEEK`S STORMS. A LITTLE BETTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MORE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND BETTER COLD AIR
ALOFT AS WELL. RAIN RATES SHOULD BE HIGHER TUESDAY NIGHT THAN WITH
THE STORM TONIGHT, THOUGH IT WOULD DEFINITELY BE A STRETCH TO GET
HALF INCH RAINFALL RATES OUT OF THE FRONT. LOOKS MORE LIKE QUARTER
TO THIRD OF AN INCH WHICH IS BELOW USGS THRESHOLDS FOR MUD AND
DEBRIS FLOWS. HOWEVER, WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN WEDNESDAY
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD LIKELY
BOOST RATES OVER A HALF INCH PER HOUR. WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A BURN AREA FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE TUE AND WED.

WITHOUT THE CONVECTION MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS SHOULD SEE AROUND
A HALF INCH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE UPSLOPE AREAS GET BETWEEN 1 AND
1.5". WILL LIKELY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS WE EXPECT AROUND 6" OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET AND 1-3" DOWN TO
AROUND 5000` OR SO. CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO SOME FLAKES DOWN TO
AROUND THE GRAPEVINE LEVEL 4000-4500` BUT LIKELY LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHLY
VARIABLE PRECIP AMOUNTS, ANYWHERE FROM BASICALLY ZERO TO AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OR SO IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. I EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME SUNSHINE WED IN BETWEEN SHOWERS.

DRYING OUT WED NIGHT AND THU EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING NORTH SLOPE
PRECIP NEAR THE GRAPEVINE. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH SYSTEM #3 ALREADY
BRINGING IN SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP N OF PT CONCEPTION BY THU
AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS A BIT FAST AND AM FOLLOWING THE SLOWER NAM
SOLUTION HERE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
LAST SYSTEM MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, THOUGH MODELS DO
SEEM TO BE SHIFTING TOWARDS A WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHENEVER THAT
DOES HAPPEN WITH MINIMAL PRECIP AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH
OF PT CONCEPTION. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A DRY AND WARMER
FORECAST BEGINNING SAT AFTERNOON AND LASTING PERHAPS QUITE A WHILE
WITH PERIODS OF OFFSHORE FLOW NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0025Z.

AT 2335Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE INVERSION.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS AND VFR CIGS TO THE
AIRFIELDS...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KWJF AND KPMD ABOUT
12Z-18Z TUE. THERE IS ALSO A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE MVFR CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS MAY AFFECT THE COAST AND VLY AIRFIELDS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING. GUSTY SE WINDS AT KSMX AND KSBA WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. SHOWERS AND VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
ALSO A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD AT TIMES TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. A PERIOD OF SE WINDS UP
TO 10 KT IS FORECAST 06Z-10Z TONIGHT.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. SHOWERS AND VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
ALSO A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD AT TIMES TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...15/130 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE FAR NORTH...LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE OUTER WATERS
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 152128
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...A FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK, AGAIN MOSTLY NIGHTTIME EVENTS. FIRST ONE
IS INTO SLO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE
BEEN PRETTY LIGHT, EVERYTHING WELL UNDER .10/HR, AND LIGHTER THAN
RADAR WOULD SUGGEST. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE OFF BIG
SUR EARLIER TODAY I DON`T SEE TSTORMS BEING A FACTOR TONIGHT. THE
NAM DOES SHOW AN AREA OF -3 LI`S OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THOUGH
SATELLITE SOUNDERS ESTIMATE LI`S CLOSER TO 0 AND AND THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE INSTABILITY WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF EVENTS
IN OUR AREA. SO I`M GOING TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH
THIS FIRST EVENT. RAINFALL ALSO NOT LOOKING PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW RATES CURRENTLY IN SRN MONTEREY COUNTY.
THERE IS SOME DECENT SOUTHEAST LOW LVL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUT THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST. AND THAT SOUTHEAST FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH SO PROBABLY NOT A LOT OF OROGRAPHICS DOWN SOUTH
EITHER. SO OVERALL A PRETTY WEAK EVENT TONIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A HALF INCH AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS JUST AN INCH OR
TWO AT MOST.

A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A LOT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY BUT JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MOST. IF WE GET A LITTLE
SUNSHINE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON HEATING TO GENERATE SOME
LIFT AND SOME BRIEF MODERATE SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS LA COUNTY.

NEXT SYSTEM ON TRACK FOR A TUESDAY NIGHT ARRIVAL. EVENING FOR
CENTRAL COAST AND AFTER MIDNIGHT WED IN LA COUNTY. THIS ONE NOW
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE THREE, THOUGH STILL AN ORDER OF
MAGNITUDE WEAKER THAN EITHER OF LAST WEEK`S STORMS. A LITTLE BETTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MORE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND BETTER COLD AIR
ALOFT AS WELL. RAIN RATES SHOULD BE HIGHER TUESDAY NIGHT THAN WITH
THE STORM TONIGHT, THOUGH IT WOULD DEFINTELY BE A STRETCH TO GET
HALF INCH RAINFALL RATES OUT OF THE FRONT. LOOKS MORE LIKE QUARTER
TO THIRD OF AN INCH WHICH IS BELOW USGS THRESHOLDS FOR MUD AND
DEBRIS FLOWS. HOWEVER, WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN WEDNESDAY
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD LIKELY
BOOST RATES OVER A HALF INCH PER HOUR. WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A BURN AREA FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE TUE AND WED.

WITHOUT THE CONVECTION MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS SHOULD SEE AROUND
A HALF INCH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE UPSLOPE AREAS GET BETWEEN 1 AND
1.5". WILL LIKELY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS WE EXPECT AROUND 6" OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET AND 1-3" DOWN TO
AROUND 5000` OR SO. CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO SOME FLAKES DOWN TO
AROUND THE GRAPEVINE LEVEL 4000-4500` BUT LIKELY LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHLY
VARIABLE PRECIP AMOUNTS, ANYWHERE FROM BASICALLY ZERO TO AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OR SO IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. I EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME SUNSHINE WED IN BETWEEN SHOWERS.

DRYING OUT WED NIGHT AND THU EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING NORTH SLOPE
PRECIP NEAR THE GRAPEVINE. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH SYSTEM #3 ALREADY
BRINGING IN SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP N OF PT CONCEPTION BY THU
AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS A BIT FAST AND AM FOLLOWING THE SLOWER NAM
SOLUTION HERE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
LAST SYSTEM MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, THOUGH MODELS DO
SEEM TO BE SHIFTING TOWARDS A WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHENEVER THAT
DOES HAPPEN WITH MINIMAL PRECIP AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH
OF PT CONCEPTION. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A DRY AND WARMER
FORECAST BEGINNING SAT AFTERNOON AND LASTING PERHAPS QUITE A WHILE
WITH PERIODS OF OFFSHORE FLOW NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1800Z.

AT 1750Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE INVERSION.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE VERY SOON IN TAF LOCATIONS NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. SOUTH POINT CONCEPTION...THE CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR
AND PERHAPS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES BEFORE THE CONDITIONS
START TO IMPROVE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER. THERE IS A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF THE RAIN STARTING PLUS OR MINUS 3 HOURS FROM THE
FORECAST.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER. THERE IS A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF THE RAIN STARTING PLUS OR MINUS 3 HOURS FROM THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...15/130 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE FAR NORTH...LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE OUTER WATERS
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 152128
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...A FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK, AGAIN MOSTLY NIGHTTIME EVENTS. FIRST ONE
IS INTO SLO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE
BEEN PRETTY LIGHT, EVERYTHING WELL UNDER .10/HR, AND LIGHTER THAN
RADAR WOULD SUGGEST. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE OFF BIG
SUR EARLIER TODAY I DON`T SEE TSTORMS BEING A FACTOR TONIGHT. THE
NAM DOES SHOW AN AREA OF -3 LI`S OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THOUGH
SATELLITE SOUNDERS ESTIMATE LI`S CLOSER TO 0 AND AND THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE INSTABILITY WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF EVENTS
IN OUR AREA. SO I`M GOING TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH
THIS FIRST EVENT. RAINFALL ALSO NOT LOOKING PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW RATES CURRENTLY IN SRN MONTEREY COUNTY.
THERE IS SOME DECENT SOUTHEAST LOW LVL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUT THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST. AND THAT SOUTHEAST FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH SO PROBABLY NOT A LOT OF OROGRAPHICS DOWN SOUTH
EITHER. SO OVERALL A PRETTY WEAK EVENT TONIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A HALF INCH AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS JUST AN INCH OR
TWO AT MOST.

A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A LOT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY BUT JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MOST. IF WE GET A LITTLE
SUNSHINE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON HEATING TO GENERATE SOME
LIFT AND SOME BRIEF MODERATE SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS LA COUNTY.

NEXT SYSTEM ON TRACK FOR A TUESDAY NIGHT ARRIVAL. EVENING FOR
CENTRAL COAST AND AFTER MIDNIGHT WED IN LA COUNTY. THIS ONE NOW
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE THREE, THOUGH STILL AN ORDER OF
MAGNITUDE WEAKER THAN EITHER OF LAST WEEK`S STORMS. A LITTLE BETTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MORE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND BETTER COLD AIR
ALOFT AS WELL. RAIN RATES SHOULD BE HIGHER TUESDAY NIGHT THAN WITH
THE STORM TONIGHT, THOUGH IT WOULD DEFINTELY BE A STRETCH TO GET
HALF INCH RAINFALL RATES OUT OF THE FRONT. LOOKS MORE LIKE QUARTER
TO THIRD OF AN INCH WHICH IS BELOW USGS THRESHOLDS FOR MUD AND
DEBRIS FLOWS. HOWEVER, WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN WEDNESDAY
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD LIKELY
BOOST RATES OVER A HALF INCH PER HOUR. WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A BURN AREA FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE TUE AND WED.

WITHOUT THE CONVECTION MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS SHOULD SEE AROUND
A HALF INCH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE UPSLOPE AREAS GET BETWEEN 1 AND
1.5". WILL LIKELY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS WE EXPECT AROUND 6" OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET AND 1-3" DOWN TO
AROUND 5000` OR SO. CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO SOME FLAKES DOWN TO
AROUND THE GRAPEVINE LEVEL 4000-4500` BUT LIKELY LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHLY
VARIABLE PRECIP AMOUNTS, ANYWHERE FROM BASICALLY ZERO TO AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OR SO IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. I EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME SUNSHINE WED IN BETWEEN SHOWERS.

DRYING OUT WED NIGHT AND THU EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING NORTH SLOPE
PRECIP NEAR THE GRAPEVINE. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH SYSTEM #3 ALREADY
BRINGING IN SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP N OF PT CONCEPTION BY THU
AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS A BIT FAST AND AM FOLLOWING THE SLOWER NAM
SOLUTION HERE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
LAST SYSTEM MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, THOUGH MODELS DO
SEEM TO BE SHIFTING TOWARDS A WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHENEVER THAT
DOES HAPPEN WITH MINIMAL PRECIP AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH
OF PT CONCEPTION. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A DRY AND WARMER
FORECAST BEGINNING SAT AFTERNOON AND LASTING PERHAPS QUITE A WHILE
WITH PERIODS OF OFFSHORE FLOW NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1800Z.

AT 1750Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE INVERSION.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE VERY SOON IN TAF LOCATIONS NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. SOUTH POINT CONCEPTION...THE CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR
AND PERHAPS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES BEFORE THE CONDITIONS
START TO IMPROVE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER. THERE IS A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF THE RAIN STARTING PLUS OR MINUS 3 HOURS FROM THE
FORECAST.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER. THERE IS A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF THE RAIN STARTING PLUS OR MINUS 3 HOURS FROM THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...15/130 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE FAR NORTH...LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE OUTER WATERS
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 151933
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1130 AM PST MON DEC 15 2014

...NEW MARINE/AVIATION DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS AT OUR DOORSTEP,
CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO EXTREME NW SLO COUNTY. THE FRONT WILL
MARCH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE
EAST OF LA COUNTY BY AROUND MORNING RUSH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS ONE WILL SEEM SCANT COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN LATELY BUT
IT WILL KEEP NUDGING OUR SEASON NUMBERS MORE IN THE BLACK AND GIVE
US A LITTLE CUSHION FOR OUR INEVITABLE WINTER RAIN HIATUS, WHICH
ACTUALLY MAY BE STARTING UP LATER THIS WEEK. FORECAST LOOKS MORE OR
LESS ON TRACK BUT WILL BE INCREASING POPS TO >80 ALL AREAS TUE
NIGHT. NOT REALLY ENAMORED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FIRST EVENT,
BUT WILL LEAVE IN SMALL CHANCES RIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS COLDER AND
HAS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, UNFORTUNATELY TIMING IS
BAD AS THE COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TUE INTO EARLY WED AND
THE AIR MASS ACTUALLY STABILIZES WED AFTERNOON.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

TUESDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN STORMS BUT THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCE OF
A SHOWER. RAIN WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MUCH LIKE TODAYS STORM THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN
ITS WAKE ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE WILL BE MORE SNOW WITH THIS STORM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
5500 FEET OR A LITTLE LOWER. SO THIS COULD BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO
REALLY AFFECT THE MAJOR MTN PASSES.

THE FIRST STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.33
AND 0.66 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00 INCH. PEAK HOURLY
RAIN RATES SHOULD APPROACH 0.25 INCHES PER HOUR...BUT COULD BE
HIGHER IF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY
CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.66
AND 1.00 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 1.50 INCH. PEAK HOURLY
RAIN RATES COULD APPROACH 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR...BUT COULD BE HIGHER
UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. ACCUMULATING SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FEET IS POSSIBLE
WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FEET.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ON THURSDAY THE TROF WILL EXIT THE AREA AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. THERE MAY BE A RESIDUAL SHOWER OVER THE
MTNS BUT NOTHING MUCH. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER TROF ON FRIDAY. THIS TROF DOES
NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE. IT WILL LIKELY CLOUD THINGS UP BUT IT WILL
PRODUCE JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN.

A LARGE INSIDE SLIDER ROLLS THROUGH THE NV/CA BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL KEEP THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GOING AND
MIGHT SET UP AN OFFSHORE EVENT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1800Z.

AT 1750Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE INVERSION.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE VERY SOON IN TAF LOCATIONS NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. SOUTH POINT CONCEPTION...THE CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR
AND PERHAPS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES BEFORE THE CONDITIONS
START TO IMPROVE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER. THERE IS A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF THE RAIN STARTING PLUS OR MINUS 3 HOURS FROM THE
FORECAST.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER. THERE IS A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF THE RAIN STARTING PLUS OR MINUS 3 HOURS FROM THE
FORECAST.



&&

.MARINE...15/900 AM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE FAR NORTH...LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE OUTER WATERS
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL BE IN EFFECT.



&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...DUMAS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 151732 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS AT OUR DOORSTEP,
CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO EXTREME NW SLO COUNTY. THE FRONT WILL
MARCH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE
EAST OF LA COUNTY BY AROUND MORNING RUSH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS ONE WILL SEEM SCANT COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN LATELY BUT
IT WILL KEEP NUDGING OUR SEASON NUMBERS MORE IN THE BLACK AND GIVE
US A LITTLE CUSHION FOR OUR INEVITABLE WINTER RAIN HIATUS, WHICH
ACTUALLY MAY BE STARTING UP LATER THIS WEEK. FORECAST LOOKS MORE OR
LESS ON TRACK BUT WILL BE INCREASING POPS TO >80 ALL AREAS TUE
NIGHT. NOT REALLY ENAMORED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FIRST EVENT,
BUT WILL LEAVE IN SMALL CHANCES RIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS COLDER AND
HAS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, UNFORTUNATELY TIMING IS
BAD AS THE COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TUE INTO EARLY WED AND
THE AIR MASS ACTUALLY STABILIZES WED AFTERNOON.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

TUESDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN STORMS BUT THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCE OF
A SHOWER. RAIN WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MUCH LIKE TODAYS STORM THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN
ITS WAKE ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE WILL BE MORE SNOW WITH THIS STORM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
5500 FEET OR A LITTLE LOWER. SO THIS COULD BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO
REALLY AFFECT THE MAJOR MTN PASSES.

THE FIRST STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.33
AND 0.66 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00 INCH. PEAK HOURLY
RAIN RATES SHOULD APPROACH 0.25 INCHES PER HOUR...BUT COULD BE
HIGHER IF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY
CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.66
AND 1.00 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 1.50 INCH. PEAK HOURLY
RAIN RATES COULD APPROACH 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR...BUT COULD BE HIGHER
UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. ACCUMULATING SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FEET IS POSSIBLE
WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FEET.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ON THURSDAY THE TROF WILL EXIT THE AREA AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. THERE MAY BE A RESIDUAL SHOWER OVER THE
MTNS BUT NOTHING MUCH. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER TROF ON FRIDAY. THIS TROF DOES
NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE. IT WILL LIKELY CLOUD THINGS UP BUT IT WILL
PRODUCE JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN.

A LARGE INSIDE SLIDER ROLLS THROUGH THE NV/CA BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL KEEP THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GOING AND
MIGHT SET UP AN OFFSHORE EVENT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

15/12Z.

AT 0930Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS A WEAK INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE TO
1000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF 14 DEGREES C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS WITH THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...15/300 AM.

THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY
AND A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF THEM INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
LEVEL.  WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL BUT INCREASING SWELLS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.  THE LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN HIGH SURF WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME DIFFICULTIES AT HARBOR
ENTRANCES.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...DUMAS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 151732 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS AT OUR DOORSTEP,
CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO EXTREME NW SLO COUNTY. THE FRONT WILL
MARCH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE
EAST OF LA COUNTY BY AROUND MORNING RUSH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS ONE WILL SEEM SCANT COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN LATELY BUT
IT WILL KEEP NUDGING OUR SEASON NUMBERS MORE IN THE BLACK AND GIVE
US A LITTLE CUSHION FOR OUR INEVITABLE WINTER RAIN HIATUS, WHICH
ACTUALLY MAY BE STARTING UP LATER THIS WEEK. FORECAST LOOKS MORE OR
LESS ON TRACK BUT WILL BE INCREASING POPS TO >80 ALL AREAS TUE
NIGHT. NOT REALLY ENAMORED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FIRST EVENT,
BUT WILL LEAVE IN SMALL CHANCES RIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS COLDER AND
HAS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, UNFORTUNATELY TIMING IS
BAD AS THE COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TUE INTO EARLY WED AND
THE AIR MASS ACTUALLY STABILIZES WED AFTERNOON.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

TUESDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN STORMS BUT THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCE OF
A SHOWER. RAIN WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MUCH LIKE TODAYS STORM THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN
ITS WAKE ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE WILL BE MORE SNOW WITH THIS STORM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
5500 FEET OR A LITTLE LOWER. SO THIS COULD BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO
REALLY AFFECT THE MAJOR MTN PASSES.

THE FIRST STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.33
AND 0.66 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00 INCH. PEAK HOURLY
RAIN RATES SHOULD APPROACH 0.25 INCHES PER HOUR...BUT COULD BE
HIGHER IF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY
CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.66
AND 1.00 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 1.50 INCH. PEAK HOURLY
RAIN RATES COULD APPROACH 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR...BUT COULD BE HIGHER
UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. ACCUMULATING SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FEET IS POSSIBLE
WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FEET.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ON THURSDAY THE TROF WILL EXIT THE AREA AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. THERE MAY BE A RESIDUAL SHOWER OVER THE
MTNS BUT NOTHING MUCH. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER TROF ON FRIDAY. THIS TROF DOES
NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE. IT WILL LIKELY CLOUD THINGS UP BUT IT WILL
PRODUCE JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN.

A LARGE INSIDE SLIDER ROLLS THROUGH THE NV/CA BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL KEEP THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GOING AND
MIGHT SET UP AN OFFSHORE EVENT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

15/12Z.

AT 0930Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS A WEAK INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE TO
1000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF 14 DEGREES C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS WITH THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...15/300 AM.

THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY
AND A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF THEM INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
LEVEL.  WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL BUT INCREASING SWELLS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.  THE LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN HIGH SURF WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME DIFFICULTIES AT HARBOR
ENTRANCES.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...DUMAS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 151730
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS AT OUR DOORSTEP,
CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO EXTREME NW SLO COUNTY. THE FRONT WILL
MARCH SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE
EAST OF LA COUNTY BY AROUND MORNING RUSH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS ONE WILL SEEM SCANT COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN LATELY BUT
IT WILL KEEP NUDGING OUR SEASON NUMBERS MORE IN THE BLACK AND GIVE
US A LITTLE CUSHION FOR OUR INEVITABLE WINTER RAIN HIATUS, WHICH
ACTUALLY MAY BE STARTING UP LATER THIS WEEK. FORECAST LOOKS MORE OR
LESS ON TRACK BUT WILL BE INCREASING POPS TO >80 ALL AREAS TUE
NIGHT. NOT REALLY ENAMORED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FIRST EVENT,
BUT WILL LEAVE IN SMALL CHANCES RIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS COLDER AND
HAS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, UNFORTUNATELY TIMING IS
BAD AS THE COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TUE INTO EARLY WED AND
THE AIR MASS ACTUALLY STABILIZES WED AFTERNOON.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

TUESDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN STORMS BUT THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCE OF
A SHOWER. RAIN WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MUCH LIKE TODAYS STORM THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN
ITS WAKE ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE WILL BE MORE SNOW WITH THIS STORM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
5500 FEET OR A LITTLE LOWER. SO THIS COULD BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO
REALLY AFFECT THE MAJOR MTN PASSES.

THE FIRST STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.33
AND 0.66 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00 INCH. PEAK HOURLY
RAIN RATES SHOULD APPROACH 0.25 INCHES PER HOUR...BUT COULD BE
HIGHER IF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY
CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.66
AND 1.00 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 1.50 INCH. PEAK HOURLY
RAIN RATES COULD APPROACH 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR...BUT COULD BE HIGHER
UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. ACCUMULATING SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FEET IS POSSIBLE
WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FEET.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ON THURSDAY THE TROF WILL EXIT THE AREA AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. THERE MAY BE A RESIDUAL SHOWER OVER THE
MTNS BUT NOTHING MUCH. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER TROF ON FRIDAY. THIS TROF DOES
NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE. IT WILL LIKELY CLOUD THINGS UP BUT IT WILL
PRODUCE JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN.

A LARGE INSIDE SLIDER ROLLS THROUGH THE NV/CA BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL KEEP THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GOING AND
MIGHT SET UP AN OFFSHORE EVENT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

15/12Z.

AT 0930Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS A WEAK INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE TO
1000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF 14 DEGREES C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS WITH THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...15/300 AM.

THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY
AND A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF THEM INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
LEVEL.  WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL BUT INCREASING SWELLS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.  THE LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN HIGH SURF WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME DIFFICULTIES AT HARBOR
ENTRANCES.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...DUMAS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 151730
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS AT OUR DOORSTEP,
CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO EXTREME NW SLO COUNTY. THE FRONT WILL
MARCH SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE
EAST OF LA COUNTY BY AROUND MORNING RUSH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS ONE WILL SEEM SCANT COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN LATELY BUT
IT WILL KEEP NUDGING OUR SEASON NUMBERS MORE IN THE BLACK AND GIVE
US A LITTLE CUSHION FOR OUR INEVITABLE WINTER RAIN HIATUS, WHICH
ACTUALLY MAY BE STARTING UP LATER THIS WEEK. FORECAST LOOKS MORE OR
LESS ON TRACK BUT WILL BE INCREASING POPS TO >80 ALL AREAS TUE
NIGHT. NOT REALLY ENAMORED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FIRST EVENT,
BUT WILL LEAVE IN SMALL CHANCES RIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS COLDER AND
HAS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, UNFORTUNATELY TIMING IS
BAD AS THE COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TUE INTO EARLY WED AND
THE AIR MASS ACTUALLY STABILIZES WED AFTERNOON.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

TUESDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN STORMS BUT THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCE OF
A SHOWER. RAIN WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MUCH LIKE TODAYS STORM THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN
ITS WAKE ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE WILL BE MORE SNOW WITH THIS STORM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
5500 FEET OR A LITTLE LOWER. SO THIS COULD BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO
REALLY AFFECT THE MAJOR MTN PASSES.

THE FIRST STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.33
AND 0.66 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00 INCH. PEAK HOURLY
RAIN RATES SHOULD APPROACH 0.25 INCHES PER HOUR...BUT COULD BE
HIGHER IF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY
CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.66
AND 1.00 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 1.50 INCH. PEAK HOURLY
RAIN RATES COULD APPROACH 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR...BUT COULD BE HIGHER
UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. ACCUMULATING SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FEET IS POSSIBLE
WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FEET.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ON THURSDAY THE TROF WILL EXIT THE AREA AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. THERE MAY BE A RESIDUAL SHOWER OVER THE
MTNS BUT NOTHING MUCH. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER TROF ON FRIDAY. THIS TROF DOES
NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE. IT WILL LIKELY CLOUD THINGS UP BUT IT WILL
PRODUCE JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN.

A LARGE INSIDE SLIDER ROLLS THROUGH THE NV/CA BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL KEEP THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GOING AND
MIGHT SET UP AN OFFSHORE EVENT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

15/12Z.

AT 0930Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS A WEAK INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE TO
1000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF 14 DEGREES C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS WITH THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...15/300 AM.

THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY
AND A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF THEM INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
LEVEL.  WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL BUT INCREASING SWELLS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.  THE LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN HIGH SURF WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME DIFFICULTIES AT HARBOR
ENTRANCES.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...DUMAS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 151537
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGING MORE
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES BRUSH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
TWO FAST MOVING STORMS WILL BRING RAIN TO SRN CA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST STORM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO THE
BAY AREA. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS GENERATING THE RAIN WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN DEVELOPING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL LIKELY ARRIVE OVER LA COUNTY AROUND 8PM
TONIGHT. THE MAIN RAIN WILL ONLY LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS AND THEN IT WILL
TURN TO SHOWERS. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC
OF TSTMS WITH THE FRONT AS SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A SNOW MAKER WITH
SNOW LEVEL 6500 FEET OR GREATER. TUESDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN STORMS
BUT THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCE OF A SHOWER. RAIN WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL THEN
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH LIKE TODAYS STORM THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE MORE SNOW WITH THIS STORM AND
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 5500 FEET OR A LITTLE LOWER. SO THIS COULD
BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO REALLY AFFECT THE MAJOR MTN PASSES.

THE FIRST STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.33
AND 0.66 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00 INCH. PEAK HOURLY
RAIN RATES SHOULD APPROACH 0.25 INCHES PER HOUR...BUT COULD BE
HIGHER IF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY
CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.66
AND 1.00 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 1.50 INCH. PEAK HOURLY
RAIN RATES COULD APPROACH 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR...BUT COULD BE HIGHER
UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. ACCUMULATING SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FEET IS POSSIBLE
WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FEET.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ON THURSDAY THE TROF WILL EXIT THE AREA AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. THERE MAY BE A RESIDUAL SHOWER OVER THE
MTNS BUT NOTHING MUCH. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER TROF ON FRIDAY. THIS TROF DOES
NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE. IT WILL LIKELY CLOUD THINGS UP BUT IT WILL
PRODUCE JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN.

A LARGE INSIDE SLIDER ROLLS THROUGH THE NV/CA BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL KEEP THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GOING AND
MIGHT SET UP AN OFFSHORE EVENT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

15/12Z.

AT 0930Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS A WEAK INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE TO
1000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF 14 DEGREES C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS WITH THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...15/300 AM.

THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY
AND A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF THEM INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
LEVEL.  WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL BUT INCREASING SWELLS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.  THE LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN HIGH SURF WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME DIFFICULTIES AT HARBOR
ENTRANCES.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 151537
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGING MORE
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES BRUSH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
TWO FAST MOVING STORMS WILL BRING RAIN TO SRN CA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST STORM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO THE
BAY AREA. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS GENERATING THE RAIN WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN DEVELOPING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL LIKELY ARRIVE OVER LA COUNTY AROUND 8PM
TONIGHT. THE MAIN RAIN WILL ONLY LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS AND THEN IT WILL
TURN TO SHOWERS. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC
OF TSTMS WITH THE FRONT AS SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A SNOW MAKER WITH
SNOW LEVEL 6500 FEET OR GREATER. TUESDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN STORMS
BUT THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCE OF A SHOWER. RAIN WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL THEN
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH LIKE TODAYS STORM THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE MORE SNOW WITH THIS STORM AND
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 5500 FEET OR A LITTLE LOWER. SO THIS COULD
BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO REALLY AFFECT THE MAJOR MTN PASSES.

THE FIRST STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.33
AND 0.66 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00 INCH. PEAK HOURLY
RAIN RATES SHOULD APPROACH 0.25 INCHES PER HOUR...BUT COULD BE
HIGHER IF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY
CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.66
AND 1.00 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 1.50 INCH. PEAK HOURLY
RAIN RATES COULD APPROACH 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR...BUT COULD BE HIGHER
UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. ACCUMULATING SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FEET IS POSSIBLE
WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FEET.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ON THURSDAY THE TROF WILL EXIT THE AREA AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. THERE MAY BE A RESIDUAL SHOWER OVER THE
MTNS BUT NOTHING MUCH. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER TROF ON FRIDAY. THIS TROF DOES
NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE. IT WILL LIKELY CLOUD THINGS UP BUT IT WILL
PRODUCE JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN.

A LARGE INSIDE SLIDER ROLLS THROUGH THE NV/CA BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL KEEP THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GOING AND
MIGHT SET UP AN OFFSHORE EVENT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

15/12Z.

AT 0930Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS A WEAK INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE TO
1000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF 14 DEGREES C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS WITH THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE CIGS AND WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...15/300 AM.

THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY
AND A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF THEM INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
LEVEL.  WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL BUT INCREASING SWELLS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.  THE LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN HIGH SURF WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME DIFFICULTIES AT HARBOR
ENTRANCES.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






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