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000
FXUS66 KLOX 301139
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS TO PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
UNEXCITING 582 DM ZONAL NW FLOW OVER CALIFORNIA. BIGGER NEWS IS AT
THE SFC WHERE GRADIENTS ARE OFFSHORE BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND THE
EAST. THESE GRADIENTS HAVE KEPT ALL LOW CLOUDS AWAY EXPECT FOR A
LITTLE PATCH IN WESTERN SBA COUNTY AND THE SNS RIVER VLY. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GENERATE SOME MTN WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME 15 MPH
CANYON WINDS IN SOME VLY LOCATIONS SO NOT REALLY A SANTA ANA BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY IT WILL DELAY OR ELIMINATE THE SEA BREEZE WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMED COMPARED TO YDYS READINGS.

REAL TOUGH CLOUD FCST TONIGHT AS THE COMPETING STRATUS FORCES OF
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN EDDY GO HEAD TO HEAD. NAM INDICATES THAT EDDY
WILL BRING STRATUS TO THE VTA AND L.A. COASTS. NORTH FLOW WILL BRING
SOME NORTH SLOPE CLOUDS TO SBA STA AND LA MTNS AS WELL AS CUYAMA
VLY. THE LOMPOC VANDENBERG AREA WILL PROBABLY ALSO SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS. BUT TRUTHFULLY THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SKIES
WILL JUST STAY CLEAR. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE AND THAT
WILL BRING A TOUCH OF COOLING TO THE CSTS AND VLYS WHILE THE
INTERIOR SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME.

ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A FAST MOVING TROF ZIPS THROUGH NEVADA AND A
LARGE EAST PAC UPPER HIGH MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AT THE SAME
TIME A STRONG COLD SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SETS UP
THE FIRST OFFSHORE WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
UPPER LEVEL WIND OR THERMAL SUPPORT SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY GREAT
WIND EVENT BUT FAVORED SANTA ANA WIND AREAS WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PERHAPS 5 MPH HIGHER IN THE
MTNS. SKIES OF COURSE WILL BE CLEAR AND COAST AND VLY TEMPS WILL
SOAR. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF 90 DEGREE READINGS TO GO AROUND IN THE
VLYS AND INTERIOR COASTAL SECTIONS.


.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
NOTHING BUT HEAT AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER
HIGH WILL SIT ATOP OF THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL PEAK WITH
592 DM HGTS SATURDAY. HGTS WILL SLOWLY FALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY UPPER
HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A RIDGE. STILL HGTS WILL BE 587DM. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE VLYS AND THE INTERIOR OF
COASTAL SECTIONS ON SATURDAY WITH ABOUT 2 DEGREES OF COOLING EACH
DAY AFTER. MAYBE A LITTLE MORE RIGHT AT THE BEACHES. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MOLLIFIED ONLY BY THE LACK OF REAL
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1030Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1015Z WAS 800 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 22 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MODERATELY WEAK
INVERSION AND WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING
...THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF ANY ORGANIZED MARINE LAYER
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX THIS MORNING...BUT
ALL OTHER SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR KPRB TO HAVE IFR CONDS BETWEEN 12Z-16Z THIS MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/310 AM

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE (NORTHEASTERLY) WINDS BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU
AND POSSIBLY OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 301139
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS TO PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
UNEXCITING 582 DM ZONAL NW FLOW OVER CALIFORNIA. BIGGER NEWS IS AT
THE SFC WHERE GRADIENTS ARE OFFSHORE BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND THE
EAST. THESE GRADIENTS HAVE KEPT ALL LOW CLOUDS AWAY EXPECT FOR A
LITTLE PATCH IN WESTERN SBA COUNTY AND THE SNS RIVER VLY. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GENERATE SOME MTN WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME 15 MPH
CANYON WINDS IN SOME VLY LOCATIONS SO NOT REALLY A SANTA ANA BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY IT WILL DELAY OR ELIMINATE THE SEA BREEZE WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMED COMPARED TO YDYS READINGS.

REAL TOUGH CLOUD FCST TONIGHT AS THE COMPETING STRATUS FORCES OF
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN EDDY GO HEAD TO HEAD. NAM INDICATES THAT EDDY
WILL BRING STRATUS TO THE VTA AND L.A. COASTS. NORTH FLOW WILL BRING
SOME NORTH SLOPE CLOUDS TO SBA STA AND LA MTNS AS WELL AS CUYAMA
VLY. THE LOMPOC VANDENBERG AREA WILL PROBABLY ALSO SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS. BUT TRUTHFULLY THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SKIES
WILL JUST STAY CLEAR. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE AND THAT
WILL BRING A TOUCH OF COOLING TO THE CSTS AND VLYS WHILE THE
INTERIOR SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME.

ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A FAST MOVING TROF ZIPS THROUGH NEVADA AND A
LARGE EAST PAC UPPER HIGH MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AT THE SAME
TIME A STRONG COLD SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SETS UP
THE FIRST OFFSHORE WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
UPPER LEVEL WIND OR THERMAL SUPPORT SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY GREAT
WIND EVENT BUT FAVORED SANTA ANA WIND AREAS WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PERHAPS 5 MPH HIGHER IN THE
MTNS. SKIES OF COURSE WILL BE CLEAR AND COAST AND VLY TEMPS WILL
SOAR. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF 90 DEGREE READINGS TO GO AROUND IN THE
VLYS AND INTERIOR COASTAL SECTIONS.


.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
NOTHING BUT HEAT AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER
HIGH WILL SIT ATOP OF THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL PEAK WITH
592 DM HGTS SATURDAY. HGTS WILL SLOWLY FALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY UPPER
HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A RIDGE. STILL HGTS WILL BE 587DM. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE VLYS AND THE INTERIOR OF
COASTAL SECTIONS ON SATURDAY WITH ABOUT 2 DEGREES OF COOLING EACH
DAY AFTER. MAYBE A LITTLE MORE RIGHT AT THE BEACHES. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MOLLIFIED ONLY BY THE LACK OF REAL
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1030Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1015Z WAS 800 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 22 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MODERATELY WEAK
INVERSION AND WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING
...THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF ANY ORGANIZED MARINE LAYER
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX THIS MORNING...BUT
ALL OTHER SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR KPRB TO HAVE IFR CONDS BETWEEN 12Z-16Z THIS MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/310 AM

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE (NORTHEASTERLY) WINDS BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU
AND POSSIBLY OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 301000
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS TO PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
UNEXCITING 582 DM ZONAL NW FLOW OVER CALIFORNIA. BIGGER NEWS IS AT
THE SFC WHERE GRADIENTS ARE OFFSHORE BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND THE
EAST. THESE GRADIENTS HAVE KEPT ALL LOW CLOUDS AWAY EXPECT FOR A
LITTLE PATCH IN WESTERN SBA COUNTY AND THE SNS RIVER VLY. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GENERATE SOME MTN WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME 15 MPH
CANYON WINDS IN SOME VLY LOCATIONS SO NOT REALLY A SANTA ANA BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY IT WILL DELAY OR ELIMINATE THE SEA BREEZE WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMED COMPARED TO YDYS READINGS.

REAL TOUGH CLOUD FCST TONIGHT AS THE COMPETING STRATUS FORCES OF
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN EDDY GO HEAD TO HEAD. NAM INDICATES THAT EDDY
WILL BRING STRATUS TO THE VTA AND L.A. COASTS. NORTH FLOW WILL BRING
SOME NORTH SLOPE CLOUDS TO SBA STA AND LA MTNS AS WELL AS CUYAMA
VLY. THE LOMPOC VANDENBERG AREA WILL PROBABLY ALSO SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS. BUT TRUTHFULLY THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SKIES
WILL JUST STAY CLEAR. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE AND THAT
WILL BRING A TOUCH OF COOLING TO THE CSTS AND VLYS WHILE THE
INTERIOR SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME.

ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A FAST MOVING TROF ZIPS THROUGH NEVADA AND A
LARGE EAST PAC UPPER HIGH MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AT THE SAME
TIME A STRONG COLD SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SETS UP
THE FIRST OFFSHORE WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
UPPER LEVEL WIND OR THERMAL SUPPORT SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY GREAT
WIND EVENT BUT FAVORED SANTA ANA WIND AREAS WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PERHAPS 5 MPH HIGHER IN THE
MTNS. SKIES OF COURSE WILL BE CLEAR AND COAST AND VLY TEMPS WILL
SOAR. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF 90 DEGREE READINGS TO GO AROUND IN THE
VLYS AND INTERIOR COASTAL SECTIONS.


.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
NOTHING BUT HEAT AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER
HIGH WILL SIT ATOP OF THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL PEAK WITH
592 DM HGTS SATURDAY. HGTS WILL SLOWLY FALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY UPPER
HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A RIDGE. STILL HGTS WILL BE 587DM. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE VLYS AND THE INTERIOR OF
COASTAL SECTIONS ON SATURDAY WITH ABOUT 2 DEGREES OF COOLING EACH
DAY AFTER. MAYBE A LITTLE MORE RIGHT AT THE BEACHES. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MOLLIFIED ONLY BY THE LACK OF REAL
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/0530Z

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z IS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP IS 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 22 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE...EXCEPT FOR KSMX WHERE
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO CIGS AT ALL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

30/310 AM

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE (NORTHEASTERLY) WINDS BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU
AND POSSIBLY OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 301000
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS TO PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
UNEXCITING 582 DM ZONAL NW FLOW OVER CALIFORNIA. BIGGER NEWS IS AT
THE SFC WHERE GRADIENTS ARE OFFSHORE BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND THE
EAST. THESE GRADIENTS HAVE KEPT ALL LOW CLOUDS AWAY EXPECT FOR A
LITTLE PATCH IN WESTERN SBA COUNTY AND THE SNS RIVER VLY. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GENERATE SOME MTN WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME 15 MPH
CANYON WINDS IN SOME VLY LOCATIONS SO NOT REALLY A SANTA ANA BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY IT WILL DELAY OR ELIMINATE THE SEA BREEZE WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMED COMPARED TO YDYS READINGS.

REAL TOUGH CLOUD FCST TONIGHT AS THE COMPETING STRATUS FORCES OF
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN EDDY GO HEAD TO HEAD. NAM INDICATES THAT EDDY
WILL BRING STRATUS TO THE VTA AND L.A. COASTS. NORTH FLOW WILL BRING
SOME NORTH SLOPE CLOUDS TO SBA STA AND LA MTNS AS WELL AS CUYAMA
VLY. THE LOMPOC VANDENBERG AREA WILL PROBABLY ALSO SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS. BUT TRUTHFULLY THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SKIES
WILL JUST STAY CLEAR. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE AND THAT
WILL BRING A TOUCH OF COOLING TO THE CSTS AND VLYS WHILE THE
INTERIOR SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME.

ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A FAST MOVING TROF ZIPS THROUGH NEVADA AND A
LARGE EAST PAC UPPER HIGH MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AT THE SAME
TIME A STRONG COLD SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SETS UP
THE FIRST OFFSHORE WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
UPPER LEVEL WIND OR THERMAL SUPPORT SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY GREAT
WIND EVENT BUT FAVORED SANTA ANA WIND AREAS WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PERHAPS 5 MPH HIGHER IN THE
MTNS. SKIES OF COURSE WILL BE CLEAR AND COAST AND VLY TEMPS WILL
SOAR. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF 90 DEGREE READINGS TO GO AROUND IN THE
VLYS AND INTERIOR COASTAL SECTIONS.


.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
NOTHING BUT HEAT AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER
HIGH WILL SIT ATOP OF THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL PEAK WITH
592 DM HGTS SATURDAY. HGTS WILL SLOWLY FALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY UPPER
HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A RIDGE. STILL HGTS WILL BE 587DM. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE VLYS AND THE INTERIOR OF
COASTAL SECTIONS ON SATURDAY WITH ABOUT 2 DEGREES OF COOLING EACH
DAY AFTER. MAYBE A LITTLE MORE RIGHT AT THE BEACHES. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MOLLIFIED ONLY BY THE LACK OF REAL
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/0530Z

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z IS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP IS 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 22 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE...EXCEPT FOR KSMX WHERE
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO CIGS AT ALL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

30/310 AM

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE (NORTHEASTERLY) WINDS BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU
AND POSSIBLY OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 300531
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS TO PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.UPDATE...
LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING INDICATE A WEAK INVERSION...BASED AROUND 1000
FEET THIS EVENING. SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SMALL PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST. GRADIENTS ARE NEUTRAL/WEAKLY OFFSHORE THIS EVENING
AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN THAT WAY. SO WITH THE WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS...WILL ANTICIPATE MOST AREAS TO REMAIN STRATUS-FREE
OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE SOME
PATCHY STRATUS/DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST OF CATALINA ISLAND.

THE SBA-SMX GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY -2.6 MB...AND SOME LOCALIZED
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING...AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...SO NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EDGE OF A RIDGE PARKED OFF THE COAST. THE
SURFACE PATTERN OSCILLATES HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OFFSHORE TRENDS
TOMORROW MORNING TURNING TO HEALTHY ONSHORE TRENDS BY THE AFTERNOON.
TOUGH TO TELL EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS A RESULT OF THESE
COMPETING FACTORS...BUT BELIEVE THE WARMER START TO THE DAY TOMORROW
SHOULD BRING A TOUCH OF WARMING EVERYWHERE. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER SBA COUNTY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...AND COULD
FLIRT WITH A LOW END ADVISORY. THIS STRONGER FLOW WILL HELP FORM A
DECENT COASTAL EDDY OVER COASTAL LA COUNTY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME STRATUS FORMING AS A RESULT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE MARINE
LAYER IS RATHER LOW.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE POSSIBLE MARINE LAYER WILL COMPETE WITH RAPIDLY
WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TREND
WILL ALLOW SOME OFFSHORE WINDS TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING THIS WILL ALL ADD UP TO LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT BRING WARMING TO THE VALLEYS AND
COOLING TO THE FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS. ON THE CENTRAL COAST
HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING QUICK CLEARING OF ANY
LINGERING STRATUS...AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-MON)...
A COLD TROUGH WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY...AND
ALLOW COLD AIR TO PUSH IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLANT THE SEEDS
FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE EVENT OF THE SEASON. THERE IS A
50/50 CHANCE THAT THESE WINDS WILL HIT ADVISORY STRENGTH OVER LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FOR THE
BETTER PART OF THURSDAY...AND SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE COASTAL
SECTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE AREA...WHICH ALL SPELLS A WARM DAY OVER
THE COAST AND VALLEYS (10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THIS INCLUDES
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES...WHERE LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH SANTA
MARIA CLOSE TO ITS RECORD. COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR...THESE HOT
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BRING PLENTY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
OFFSHORE WINDS WEAKEN 5-10 MPH AND THE RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS EACH
DAY. INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE THE SHARPEST WARMING. MODELS SUGGESTING
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME.
USUALLY THE MODELS BRING COOLING TOO QUICKLY IN SUCH EVENTS...BUT
DID INTRODUCE COOLING TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST...AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/0530Z

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z IS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP IS 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 22 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE...EXCEPT FOR KSMX WHERE
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO CIGS AT ALL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...29/800 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WINDS INCREASING BACK UP TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE (NORTHEASTERLY) WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
SHORE BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RAT
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 300531
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS TO PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.UPDATE...
LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING INDICATE A WEAK INVERSION...BASED AROUND 1000
FEET THIS EVENING. SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SMALL PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST. GRADIENTS ARE NEUTRAL/WEAKLY OFFSHORE THIS EVENING
AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN THAT WAY. SO WITH THE WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS...WILL ANTICIPATE MOST AREAS TO REMAIN STRATUS-FREE
OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE SOME
PATCHY STRATUS/DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST OF CATALINA ISLAND.

THE SBA-SMX GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY -2.6 MB...AND SOME LOCALIZED
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING...AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...SO NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EDGE OF A RIDGE PARKED OFF THE COAST. THE
SURFACE PATTERN OSCILLATES HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OFFSHORE TRENDS
TOMORROW MORNING TURNING TO HEALTHY ONSHORE TRENDS BY THE AFTERNOON.
TOUGH TO TELL EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS A RESULT OF THESE
COMPETING FACTORS...BUT BELIEVE THE WARMER START TO THE DAY TOMORROW
SHOULD BRING A TOUCH OF WARMING EVERYWHERE. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER SBA COUNTY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...AND COULD
FLIRT WITH A LOW END ADVISORY. THIS STRONGER FLOW WILL HELP FORM A
DECENT COASTAL EDDY OVER COASTAL LA COUNTY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME STRATUS FORMING AS A RESULT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE MARINE
LAYER IS RATHER LOW.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE POSSIBLE MARINE LAYER WILL COMPETE WITH RAPIDLY
WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TREND
WILL ALLOW SOME OFFSHORE WINDS TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING THIS WILL ALL ADD UP TO LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT BRING WARMING TO THE VALLEYS AND
COOLING TO THE FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS. ON THE CENTRAL COAST
HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING QUICK CLEARING OF ANY
LINGERING STRATUS...AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-MON)...
A COLD TROUGH WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY...AND
ALLOW COLD AIR TO PUSH IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLANT THE SEEDS
FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE EVENT OF THE SEASON. THERE IS A
50/50 CHANCE THAT THESE WINDS WILL HIT ADVISORY STRENGTH OVER LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FOR THE
BETTER PART OF THURSDAY...AND SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE COASTAL
SECTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE AREA...WHICH ALL SPELLS A WARM DAY OVER
THE COAST AND VALLEYS (10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THIS INCLUDES
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES...WHERE LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH SANTA
MARIA CLOSE TO ITS RECORD. COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR...THESE HOT
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BRING PLENTY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
OFFSHORE WINDS WEAKEN 5-10 MPH AND THE RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS EACH
DAY. INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE THE SHARPEST WARMING. MODELS SUGGESTING
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME.
USUALLY THE MODELS BRING COOLING TOO QUICKLY IN SUCH EVENTS...BUT
DID INTRODUCE COOLING TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST...AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/0530Z

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z IS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP IS 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 22 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE...EXCEPT FOR KSMX WHERE
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO CIGS AT ALL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...29/800 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WINDS INCREASING BACK UP TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE (NORTHEASTERLY) WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
SHORE BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RAT
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 300317
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS TO PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.UPDATE...
LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING INDICATE A WEAK INVERSION...BASED AROUND 1000
FEET THIS EVENING. SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SMALL PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST. GRADIENTS ARE NEUTRAL/WEAKLY OFFSHORE THIS EVENING
AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN THAT WAY. SO WITH THE WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS...WILL ANTICIPATE MOST AREAS TO REMAIN STRATUS-FREE
OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE SOME
PATCHY STRATUS/DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST OF CATALINA ISLAND.

THE SBA-SMX GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY -2.6 MB...AND SOME LOCALIZED
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING...AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...SO NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EDGE OF A RIDGE PARKED OFF THE COAST. THE
SURFACE PATTERN OSCILLATES HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OFFSHORE TRENDS
TOMORROW MORNING TURNING TO HEALTHY ONSHORE TRENDS BY THE AFTERNOON.
TOUGH TO TELL EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS A RESULT OF THESE
COMPETING FACTORS...BUT BELIEVE THE WARMER START TO THE DAY TOMORROW
SHOULD BRING A TOUCH OF WARMING EVERYWHERE. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER SBA COUNTY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...AND COULD
FLIRT WITH A LOW END ADVISORY. THIS STRONGER FLOW WILL HELP FORM A
DECENT COASTAL EDDY OVER COASTAL LA COUNTY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME STRATUS FORMING AS A RESULT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE MARINE
LAYER IS RATHER LOW.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE POSSIBLE MARINE LAYER WILL COMPETE WITH RAPIDLY
WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TREND
WILL ALLOW SOME OFFSHORE WINDS TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING THIS WILL ALL ADD UP TO LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT BRING WARMING TO THE VALLEYS AND
COOLING TO THE FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS. ON THE CENTRAL COAST
HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING QUICK CLEARING OF ANY
LINGERING STRATUS...AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-MON)...
A COLD TROUGH WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY...AND
ALLOW COLD AIR TO PUSH IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLANT THE SEEDS
FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE EVENT OF THE SEASON. THERE IS A
50/50 CHANCE THAT THESE WINDS WILL HIT ADVISORY STRENGTH OVER LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FOR THE
BETTER PART OF THURSDAY...AND SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE COASTAL
SECTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE AREA...WHICH ALL SPELLS A WARM DAY OVER
THE COAST AND VALLEYS (10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THIS INCLUDES
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES...WHERE LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH SANTA
MARIA CLOSE TO ITS RECORD. COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR...THESE HOT
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BRING PLENTY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
OFFSHORE WINDS WEAKEN 5-10 MPH AND THE RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS EACH
DAY. INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE THE SHARPEST WARMING. MODELS SUGGESTING
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME.
USUALLY THE MODELS BRING COOLING TOO QUICKLY IN SUCH EVENTS...BUT
DID INTRODUCE COOLING TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST...AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...29/2317Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2235Z IS 1200 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP IS 2400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 20 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH WEAK INVERSION
AND GRADIENTS FORECAST TO GO WEAKLY OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH OF ANY ORGANIZED MARINE LAYER STRATUS. THERE IS A
DECENT CHANCE OF SOME LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX OVERNIGHT...BUT ALL
OTHER SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...29/800 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WINDS INCREASING BACK UP TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE (NORTHEASTERLY) WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
SHORE BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RAT
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 300317
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS TO PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.UPDATE...
LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING INDICATE A WEAK INVERSION...BASED AROUND 1000
FEET THIS EVENING. SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SMALL PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST. GRADIENTS ARE NEUTRAL/WEAKLY OFFSHORE THIS EVENING
AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN THAT WAY. SO WITH THE WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS...WILL ANTICIPATE MOST AREAS TO REMAIN STRATUS-FREE
OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE SOME
PATCHY STRATUS/DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST OF CATALINA ISLAND.

THE SBA-SMX GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY -2.6 MB...AND SOME LOCALIZED
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING...AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...SO NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EDGE OF A RIDGE PARKED OFF THE COAST. THE
SURFACE PATTERN OSCILLATES HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OFFSHORE TRENDS
TOMORROW MORNING TURNING TO HEALTHY ONSHORE TRENDS BY THE AFTERNOON.
TOUGH TO TELL EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS A RESULT OF THESE
COMPETING FACTORS...BUT BELIEVE THE WARMER START TO THE DAY TOMORROW
SHOULD BRING A TOUCH OF WARMING EVERYWHERE. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER SBA COUNTY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...AND COULD
FLIRT WITH A LOW END ADVISORY. THIS STRONGER FLOW WILL HELP FORM A
DECENT COASTAL EDDY OVER COASTAL LA COUNTY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME STRATUS FORMING AS A RESULT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE MARINE
LAYER IS RATHER LOW.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE POSSIBLE MARINE LAYER WILL COMPETE WITH RAPIDLY
WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TREND
WILL ALLOW SOME OFFSHORE WINDS TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING THIS WILL ALL ADD UP TO LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT BRING WARMING TO THE VALLEYS AND
COOLING TO THE FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS. ON THE CENTRAL COAST
HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING QUICK CLEARING OF ANY
LINGERING STRATUS...AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-MON)...
A COLD TROUGH WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY...AND
ALLOW COLD AIR TO PUSH IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLANT THE SEEDS
FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE EVENT OF THE SEASON. THERE IS A
50/50 CHANCE THAT THESE WINDS WILL HIT ADVISORY STRENGTH OVER LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FOR THE
BETTER PART OF THURSDAY...AND SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE COASTAL
SECTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE AREA...WHICH ALL SPELLS A WARM DAY OVER
THE COAST AND VALLEYS (10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THIS INCLUDES
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES...WHERE LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH SANTA
MARIA CLOSE TO ITS RECORD. COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR...THESE HOT
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BRING PLENTY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
OFFSHORE WINDS WEAKEN 5-10 MPH AND THE RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS EACH
DAY. INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE THE SHARPEST WARMING. MODELS SUGGESTING
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME.
USUALLY THE MODELS BRING COOLING TOO QUICKLY IN SUCH EVENTS...BUT
DID INTRODUCE COOLING TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST...AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...29/2317Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2235Z IS 1200 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP IS 2400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 20 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH WEAK INVERSION
AND GRADIENTS FORECAST TO GO WEAKLY OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH OF ANY ORGANIZED MARINE LAYER STRATUS. THERE IS A
DECENT CHANCE OF SOME LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX OVERNIGHT...BUT ALL
OTHER SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...29/800 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WINDS INCREASING BACK UP TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE (NORTHEASTERLY) WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
SHORE BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RAT
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 292318 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
417 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT NORMAL. A LARGE HIGH AND WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL BRING
FAIR SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES...TO PEAK ON SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EXIST. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
TEMPERATURES UP AWAY FROM THE COAST THANKS TO THE DEPARTING LOW AND
WEAK/LATE ARRIVING ONSHORE FLOW. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
STRATUS...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS OFF THE CENTRAL COAST WHILE AREAS
SOUTH SBA ARE VERY CLEAR. WITH ONSHORE GRADIENTS WEAKENING EVEN
MORE TONIGHT...KEEPING EVERYWHERE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE STRATUS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. DENSE FOG MAY BE A FACTOR AS WELL UP THERE.
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE SBA SOUTH COAST
TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING NEAR ADVISORY.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EDGE OF A RIDGE PARKED OFF THE COAST. THE
SURFACE PATTERN OSCILLATES HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OFFSHORE TRENDS
TOMORROW MORNING TURNING TO HEALTHY ONSHORE TRENDS BY THE AFTERNOON.
TOUGH TO TELL EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS A RESULT OF THESE
COMPETING FACTORS...BUT BELIEVE THE WARMER START TO THE DAY TOMORROW
SHOULD BRING A TOUCH OF WARMING EVERYWHERE. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER SBA COUNTY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...AND COULD
FLIRT WITH A LOW END ADVISORY. THIS STRONGER FLOW WILL HELP FORM A
DECENT COASTAL EDDY OVER COASTAL LA COUNTY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME STRATUS FORMING AS A RESULT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE MARINE
LAYER IS RATHER LOW.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE POSSIBLE MARINE LAYER WILL COMPETE WITH RAPIDLY
WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TREND
WILL ALLOW SOME OFFSHORE WINDS TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING THIS WILL ALL ADD UP TO LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT BRING WARMING TO THE VALLEYS AND
COOLING TO THE FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS. ON THE CENTRAL COAST
HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING QUICK CLEARING OF ANY
LINGERING STRATUS...AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-MON)...
A COLD TROUGH WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY...AND
ALLOW COLD AIR TO PUSH IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLANT THE SEEDS
FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE EVENT OF THE SEASON. THERE IS A
50/50 CHANCE THAT THESE WINDS WILL HIT ADVISORY STRENGTH OVER LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FOR THE
BETTER PART OF THURSDAY...AND SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE COASTAL
SECTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE AREA...WHICH ALL SPELLS A WARM DAY OVER
THE COAST AND VALLEYS (10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THIS INCLUDES
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES...WHERE LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH SANTA
MARIA CLOSE TO ITS RECORD. COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR...THESE HOT
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BRING PLENTY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
OFFSHORE WINDS WEAKEN 5-10 MPH AND THE RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS EACH
DAY. INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE THE SHARPEST WARMING. MODELS SUGGESTING
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME.
USUALLY THE MODELS BRING COOLING TOO QUICKLY IN SUCH EVENTS...BUT
DID INTRODUCE COOLING TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST...AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...29/2317Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2235Z IS 1200 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP IS 2400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 20 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH WEAK INVERSION
AND GRADIENTS FORECAST TO GO WEAKLY OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH OF ANY ORGANIZED MARINE LAYER STRATUS. THERE IS A
DECENT CHANCE OF SOME LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX OVERNIGHT...BUT ALL
OTHER SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...29/200 PM...
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY IN THE OUTER
WATERS. THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS WHERE LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND
SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 292318 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
417 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT NORMAL. A LARGE HIGH AND WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL BRING
FAIR SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES...TO PEAK ON SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EXIST. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
TEMPERATURES UP AWAY FROM THE COAST THANKS TO THE DEPARTING LOW AND
WEAK/LATE ARRIVING ONSHORE FLOW. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
STRATUS...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS OFF THE CENTRAL COAST WHILE AREAS
SOUTH SBA ARE VERY CLEAR. WITH ONSHORE GRADIENTS WEAKENING EVEN
MORE TONIGHT...KEEPING EVERYWHERE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE STRATUS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. DENSE FOG MAY BE A FACTOR AS WELL UP THERE.
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE SBA SOUTH COAST
TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING NEAR ADVISORY.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EDGE OF A RIDGE PARKED OFF THE COAST. THE
SURFACE PATTERN OSCILLATES HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OFFSHORE TRENDS
TOMORROW MORNING TURNING TO HEALTHY ONSHORE TRENDS BY THE AFTERNOON.
TOUGH TO TELL EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS A RESULT OF THESE
COMPETING FACTORS...BUT BELIEVE THE WARMER START TO THE DAY TOMORROW
SHOULD BRING A TOUCH OF WARMING EVERYWHERE. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER SBA COUNTY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...AND COULD
FLIRT WITH A LOW END ADVISORY. THIS STRONGER FLOW WILL HELP FORM A
DECENT COASTAL EDDY OVER COASTAL LA COUNTY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME STRATUS FORMING AS A RESULT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE MARINE
LAYER IS RATHER LOW.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE POSSIBLE MARINE LAYER WILL COMPETE WITH RAPIDLY
WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TREND
WILL ALLOW SOME OFFSHORE WINDS TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING THIS WILL ALL ADD UP TO LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT BRING WARMING TO THE VALLEYS AND
COOLING TO THE FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS. ON THE CENTRAL COAST
HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING QUICK CLEARING OF ANY
LINGERING STRATUS...AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-MON)...
A COLD TROUGH WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY...AND
ALLOW COLD AIR TO PUSH IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLANT THE SEEDS
FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE EVENT OF THE SEASON. THERE IS A
50/50 CHANCE THAT THESE WINDS WILL HIT ADVISORY STRENGTH OVER LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FOR THE
BETTER PART OF THURSDAY...AND SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE COASTAL
SECTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE AREA...WHICH ALL SPELLS A WARM DAY OVER
THE COAST AND VALLEYS (10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THIS INCLUDES
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES...WHERE LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH SANTA
MARIA CLOSE TO ITS RECORD. COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR...THESE HOT
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BRING PLENTY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
OFFSHORE WINDS WEAKEN 5-10 MPH AND THE RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS EACH
DAY. INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE THE SHARPEST WARMING. MODELS SUGGESTING
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME.
USUALLY THE MODELS BRING COOLING TOO QUICKLY IN SUCH EVENTS...BUT
DID INTRODUCE COOLING TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST...AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...29/2317Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2235Z IS 1200 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP IS 2400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 20 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH WEAK INVERSION
AND GRADIENTS FORECAST TO GO WEAKLY OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH OF ANY ORGANIZED MARINE LAYER STRATUS. THERE IS A
DECENT CHANCE OF SOME LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX OVERNIGHT...BUT ALL
OTHER SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...29/200 PM...
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY IN THE OUTER
WATERS. THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS WHERE LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND
SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 292120
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT NORMAL. A LARGE HIGH AND WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL BRING
FAIR SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES...TO PEAK ON SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EXIST. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
TEMPERATURES UP AWAY FROM THE COAST THANKS TO THE DEPARTING LOW AND
WEAK/LATE ARRIVING ONSHORE FLOW. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
STRATUS...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS OFF THE CENTRAL COAST WHILE AREAS
SOUTH SBA ARE VERY CLEAR. WITH ONSHORE GRADIENTS WEAKENING EVEN
MORE TONIGHT...KEEPING EVERYWHERE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE STRATUS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. DENSE FOG MAY BE A FACTOR AS WELL UP THERE.
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE SBA SOUTH COAST
TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING NEAR ADVISORY.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EDGE OF A RIDGE PARKED OFF THE COAST. THE
SURFACE PATTERN OSCILLATES HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OFFSHORE TRENDS
TOMORROW MORNING TURNING TO HEALTHY ONSHORE TRENDS BY THE AFTERNOON.
TOUGH TO TELL EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS A RESULT OF THESE
COMPETING FACTORS...BUT BELIEVE THE WARMER START TO THE DAY TOMORROW
SHOULD BRING A TOUCH OF WARMING EVERYWHERE. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER SBA COUNTY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...AND COULD
FLIRT WITH A LOW END ADVISORY. THIS STRONGER FLOW WILL HELP FORM A
DECENT COASTAL EDDY OVER COASTAL LA COUNTY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME STRATUS FORMING AS A RESULT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE MARINE
LAYER IS RATHER LOW.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE POSSIBLE MARINE LAYER WILL COMPETE WITH RAPIDLY
WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TREND
WILL ALLOW SOME OFFSHORE WINDS TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING THIS WILL ALL ADD UP TO LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT BRING WARMING TO THE VALLEYS AND
COOLING TO THE FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS. ON THE CENTRAL COAST
HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING QUICK CLEARING OF ANY
LINGERING STRATUS...AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-MON)...
A COLD TROUGH WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY...AND
ALLOW COLD AIR TO PUSH IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLANT THE SEEDS
FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE EVENT OF THE SEASON. THERE IS A
50/50 CHANCE THAT THESE WINDS WILL HIT ADVISORY STRENGTH OVER LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FOR THE
BETTER PART OF THURSDAY...AND SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE COASTAL
SECTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE AREA...WHICH ALL SPELLS A WARM DAY OVER
THE COAST AND VALLEYS (10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THIS INCLUDES
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES...WHERE LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH SANTA
MARIA CLOSE TO ITS RECORD. COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR...THESE HOT
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BRING PLENTY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
OFFSHORE WINDS WEAKEN 5-10 MPH AND THE RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS EACH
DAY. INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE THE SHARPEST WARMING. MODELS SUGGESTING
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME.
USUALLY THE MODELS BRING COOLING TOO QUICKLY IN SUCH EVENTS...BUT
DID INTRODUCE COOLING TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST...AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1800Z.
THERE IS STILL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A MARINE INVERSION.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z COASTAL TAFS...WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
VALLEY AND DESERT TAFS. DUE TO THE LACK OF A MARINE INVERSION AND
CONTINUED OFFSHORE TRENDS...WILL OPT TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH TUESDAY.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...29/200 PM...
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY IN THE OUTER
WATERS. THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS WHERE LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND
SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 292120
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT NORMAL. A LARGE HIGH AND WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL BRING
FAIR SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES...TO PEAK ON SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EXIST. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
TEMPERATURES UP AWAY FROM THE COAST THANKS TO THE DEPARTING LOW AND
WEAK/LATE ARRIVING ONSHORE FLOW. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
STRATUS...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS OFF THE CENTRAL COAST WHILE AREAS
SOUTH SBA ARE VERY CLEAR. WITH ONSHORE GRADIENTS WEAKENING EVEN
MORE TONIGHT...KEEPING EVERYWHERE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE STRATUS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. DENSE FOG MAY BE A FACTOR AS WELL UP THERE.
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE SBA SOUTH COAST
TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING NEAR ADVISORY.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EDGE OF A RIDGE PARKED OFF THE COAST. THE
SURFACE PATTERN OSCILLATES HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OFFSHORE TRENDS
TOMORROW MORNING TURNING TO HEALTHY ONSHORE TRENDS BY THE AFTERNOON.
TOUGH TO TELL EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS A RESULT OF THESE
COMPETING FACTORS...BUT BELIEVE THE WARMER START TO THE DAY TOMORROW
SHOULD BRING A TOUCH OF WARMING EVERYWHERE. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER SBA COUNTY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...AND COULD
FLIRT WITH A LOW END ADVISORY. THIS STRONGER FLOW WILL HELP FORM A
DECENT COASTAL EDDY OVER COASTAL LA COUNTY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME STRATUS FORMING AS A RESULT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE MARINE
LAYER IS RATHER LOW.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE POSSIBLE MARINE LAYER WILL COMPETE WITH RAPIDLY
WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TREND
WILL ALLOW SOME OFFSHORE WINDS TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING THIS WILL ALL ADD UP TO LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT BRING WARMING TO THE VALLEYS AND
COOLING TO THE FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS. ON THE CENTRAL COAST
HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING QUICK CLEARING OF ANY
LINGERING STRATUS...AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-MON)...
A COLD TROUGH WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY...AND
ALLOW COLD AIR TO PUSH IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLANT THE SEEDS
FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE EVENT OF THE SEASON. THERE IS A
50/50 CHANCE THAT THESE WINDS WILL HIT ADVISORY STRENGTH OVER LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FOR THE
BETTER PART OF THURSDAY...AND SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE COASTAL
SECTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE AREA...WHICH ALL SPELLS A WARM DAY OVER
THE COAST AND VALLEYS (10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THIS INCLUDES
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES...WHERE LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH SANTA
MARIA CLOSE TO ITS RECORD. COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR...THESE HOT
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BRING PLENTY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
OFFSHORE WINDS WEAKEN 5-10 MPH AND THE RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS EACH
DAY. INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE THE SHARPEST WARMING. MODELS SUGGESTING
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME.
USUALLY THE MODELS BRING COOLING TOO QUICKLY IN SUCH EVENTS...BUT
DID INTRODUCE COOLING TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST...AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1800Z.
THERE IS STILL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A MARINE INVERSION.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z COASTAL TAFS...WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
VALLEY AND DESERT TAFS. DUE TO THE LACK OF A MARINE INVERSION AND
CONTINUED OFFSHORE TRENDS...WILL OPT TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH TUESDAY.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...29/200 PM...
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY IN THE OUTER
WATERS. THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS WHERE LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND
SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 291853
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1150 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT NORMAL. A LARGE HIGH AND WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL BRING
FAIR SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES...TO PEAK ON SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EXIST. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. JUST MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY
COVER TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT PICTURE. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME WARMING AS THE LOW RETREATS AND RIDGING
FORMS. SUNDOWNER WINDS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT...BUT NOW
DOES NOT LOOK TO THREATEN ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MDLS NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE TO THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT IF ANYTHING
SHOWING LESS VLY CLOUDS. AGAIN EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH JUST
A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. HGTS
KEEP RISING AND TUESDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAYS. MOST MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

MDLS SHOW A SLIGHT EDDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST COASTS
WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS SAVE THE SBA SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL REMAIN
CLEAR DUE TO WEAK NORTH FLOW. HIGHER HGTS SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER SMOOSHED OUT OF THE VLYS. NORTH FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH SLOPES AS WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY BY
MID MORNING BUT THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL KNOCK A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS THE
INTERIOR TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM TUESDAYS READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ALL EYES ON THE XTND FCST. IT IS ACTUALLY PRETTY SIMPLE. ALL MDLS
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY...PEAK SATURDAY AND THEN WEAKEN JUST A TAD SUNDAY.
AT THE SFC A NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP PEAKING JUST AFTER
DAWN EACH MORNING AND SUBSIDING TO NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOONS.

HOT HOT AND HOT IS ABOUT THE ONLY WAY TO DESCRIBE THE XTND FCST. VLY
TEMPS JUMP INTO THE 90S THURSDAY BUT THEN ITS 3 OR 4 DAYS OF TRIPLE
DIGIT MAX TEMPS. COASTAL TEMPS WILL RANGE FORM THE LOWER 80S AT THE
BEACHES TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

THE HIGH PEAKS AT 593 DM SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY.
HGTS AND TEMPS SLOWLY FALL SUN AND MON.

THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF OVERNIGHT
COOLING AND MANY VLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. DURING THIS
EVENT MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE WILL BE SOME SANTA ANA CANYON WINDS EACH MORNING BUT RIGHT NOW
THE LACK OF UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT SHOULD MAKE THIS A WEAK EVENT
WITH JUST 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS. OF COURSE THIS COULD CHANGE SO A CLOSE
EYE WILL BE KEPT OF THE WIND PARAMETERS IN CASE THEY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1800Z.
THERE IS STILL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A MARINE INVERSION.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z COASTAL TAFS...WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
VALLEY AND DESERT TAFS. DUE TO THE LACK OF A MARINE INVERSION AND
CONTINUED OFFSHORE TRENDS...WILL OPT TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH TUESDAY.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM...

MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY IN THE OUTER
WATERS. THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS WHERE LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND
SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RORKE
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 291853
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1150 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT NORMAL. A LARGE HIGH AND WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL BRING
FAIR SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES...TO PEAK ON SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EXIST. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. JUST MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY
COVER TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT PICTURE. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME WARMING AS THE LOW RETREATS AND RIDGING
FORMS. SUNDOWNER WINDS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT...BUT NOW
DOES NOT LOOK TO THREATEN ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MDLS NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE TO THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT IF ANYTHING
SHOWING LESS VLY CLOUDS. AGAIN EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH JUST
A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. HGTS
KEEP RISING AND TUESDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAYS. MOST MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

MDLS SHOW A SLIGHT EDDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST COASTS
WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS SAVE THE SBA SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL REMAIN
CLEAR DUE TO WEAK NORTH FLOW. HIGHER HGTS SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER SMOOSHED OUT OF THE VLYS. NORTH FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH SLOPES AS WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY BY
MID MORNING BUT THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL KNOCK A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS THE
INTERIOR TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM TUESDAYS READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ALL EYES ON THE XTND FCST. IT IS ACTUALLY PRETTY SIMPLE. ALL MDLS
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY...PEAK SATURDAY AND THEN WEAKEN JUST A TAD SUNDAY.
AT THE SFC A NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP PEAKING JUST AFTER
DAWN EACH MORNING AND SUBSIDING TO NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOONS.

HOT HOT AND HOT IS ABOUT THE ONLY WAY TO DESCRIBE THE XTND FCST. VLY
TEMPS JUMP INTO THE 90S THURSDAY BUT THEN ITS 3 OR 4 DAYS OF TRIPLE
DIGIT MAX TEMPS. COASTAL TEMPS WILL RANGE FORM THE LOWER 80S AT THE
BEACHES TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

THE HIGH PEAKS AT 593 DM SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY.
HGTS AND TEMPS SLOWLY FALL SUN AND MON.

THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF OVERNIGHT
COOLING AND MANY VLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. DURING THIS
EVENT MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE WILL BE SOME SANTA ANA CANYON WINDS EACH MORNING BUT RIGHT NOW
THE LACK OF UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT SHOULD MAKE THIS A WEAK EVENT
WITH JUST 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS. OF COURSE THIS COULD CHANGE SO A CLOSE
EYE WILL BE KEPT OF THE WIND PARAMETERS IN CASE THEY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1800Z.
THERE IS STILL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A MARINE INVERSION.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z COASTAL TAFS...WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
VALLEY AND DESERT TAFS. DUE TO THE LACK OF A MARINE INVERSION AND
CONTINUED OFFSHORE TRENDS...WILL OPT TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH TUESDAY.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM...

MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY IN THE OUTER
WATERS. THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS WHERE LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND
SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RORKE
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 291637
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT NORMAL. A LARGE HIGH AND WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL BRING
FAIR SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES...TO PEAK ON SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EXIST. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. JUST MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY
COVER TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT PICTURE. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME WARMING AS THE LOW RETREATS AND RIDGING
FORMS. SUNDOWNER WINDS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT...BUT NOW
DOES NOT LOOK TO THREATEN ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MDLS NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE TO THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT IF ANYTHING
SHOWING LESS VLY CLOUDS. AGAIN EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH JUST
A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. HGTS
KEEP RISING AND TUESDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAYS. MOST MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

MDLS SHOW A SLIGHT EDDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST COASTS
WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS SAVE THE SBA SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL REMAIN
CLEAR DUE TO WEAK NORTH FLOW. HIGHER HGTS SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER SMOOSHED OUT OF THE VLYS. NORTH FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH SLOPES AS WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY BY
MID MORNING BUT THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL KNOCK A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS THE
INTERIOR TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM TUESDAYS READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ALL EYES ON THE XTND FCST. IT IS ACTUALLY PRETTY SIMPLE. ALL MDLS
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY...PEAK SATURDAY AND THEN WEAKEN JUST A TAD SUNDAY.
AT THE SFC A NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP PEAKING JUST AFTER
DAWN EACH MORNING AND SUBSIDING TO NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOONS.

HOT HOT AND HOT IS ABOUT THE ONLY WAY TO DESCRIBE THE XTND FCST. VLY
TEMPS JUMP INTO THE 90S THURSDAY BUT THEN ITS 3 OR 4 DAYS OF TRIPLE
DIGIT MAX TEMPS. COASTAL TEMPS WILL RANGE FORM THE LOWER 80S AT THE
BEACHES TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

THE HIGH PEAKS AT 593 DM SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY.
HGTS AND TEMPS SLOWLY FALL SUN AND MON.

THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF OVERNIGHT
COOLING AND MANY VLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. DURING THIS
EVENT MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE WILL BE SOME SANTA ANA CANYON WINDS EACH MORNING BUT RIGHT NOW
THE LACK OF UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT SHOULD MAKE THIS A WEAK EVENT
WITH JUST 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS. OF COURSE THIS COULD CHANGE SO A CLOSE
EYE WILL BE KEPT OF THE WIND PARAMETERS IN CASE THEY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z...

THERE IS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX THIS MORNING.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS FOR THE COASTAL AND
ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS.  BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG IS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THOUGH PERIODIC MVFR CIGS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COAST AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS.  KPRB WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
18Z-20Z. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

KLAX...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE REDUCED
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER
DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

KBUR...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER DEVELOPMENT AND A TEN
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS 13Z-17Z.  THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM...

MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY IN THE OUTER
WATERS. THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS WHERE LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND
SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 291611
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT NORMAL. A LARGE HIGH AND WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL BRING
FAIR SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES...TO PEAK ON SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EXIST. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. JUST MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY
COVER TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT PICTURE. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME WARMING AS THE LOW RETREATS AND RIDGING
FORMS. SUNDOWNER WINDS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT...BUT NOW
DOES NOT LOOK TO THREATEN ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MDLS NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE TO THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT IF ANYTHING
SHOWING LESS VLY CLOUDS. AGAIN EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH JUST
A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. HGTS
KEEP RISING AND TUESDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAYS. MOST MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

MDLS SHOW A SLIGHT EDDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST COASTS
WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS SAVE THE SBA SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL REMAIN
CLEAR DUE TO WEAK NORTH FLOW. HIGHER HGTS SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER SMOOSHED OUT OF THE VLYS. NORTH FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH SLOPES AS WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY BY
MID MORNING BUT THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL KNOCK A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS THE
INTERIOR TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM TUESDAYS READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ALL EYES ON THE XTND FCST. IT IS ACTUALLY PRETTY SIMPLE. ALL MDLS
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY...PEAK SATURDAY AND THEN WEAKEN JUST A TAD SUNDAY.
AT THE SFC A NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP PEAKING JUST AFTER
DAWN EACH MORNING AND SUBSIDING TO NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOONS.

HOT HOT AND HOT IS ABOUT THE ONLY WAY TO DESCRIBE THE XTND FCST. VLY
TEMPS JUMP INTO THE 90S THURSDAY BUT THEN ITS 3 OR 4 DAYS OF TRIPLE
DIGIT MAX TEMPS. COASTAL TEMPS WILL RANGE FORM THE LOWER 80S AT THE
BEACHES TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

THE HIGH PEAKS AT 593 DM SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY.
HGTS AND TEMPS SLOWLY FALL SUN AND MON.

THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF OVERNIGHT
COOLING AND MANY VLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. DURING THIS
EVENT MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE WILL BE SOME SANTA ANA CANYON WINDS EACH MORNING BUT RIGHT NOW
THE LACK OF UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT SHOULD MAKE THIS A WEAK EVENT
WITH JUST 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS. OF COURSE THIS COULD CHANGE SO A CLOSE
EYE WILL BE KEPT OF THE WIND PARAMETERS IN CASE THEY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z...

THERE IS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX THIS MORNING.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS FOR THE COASTAL AND
ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS.  BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG IS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THOUGH PERIODIC MVFR CIGS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COAST AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS.  KPRB WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
18Z-20Z. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

KLAX...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE REDUCED
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER
DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

KBUR...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER DEVELOPMENT AND A TEN
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS 13Z-17Z.  THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...29/300 AM...
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GIVE
WAY TO STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.  WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
ARE LIKELY TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY
EVEN DO SO BY LATE ON TUESDAY.

A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL ORIGINATING FROM HURRICANE RACHEL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 291611
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT NORMAL. A LARGE HIGH AND WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL BRING
FAIR SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES...TO PEAK ON SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EXIST. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. JUST MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY
COVER TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT PICTURE. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME WARMING AS THE LOW RETREATS AND RIDGING
FORMS. SUNDOWNER WINDS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT...BUT NOW
DOES NOT LOOK TO THREATEN ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MDLS NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE TO THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT IF ANYTHING
SHOWING LESS VLY CLOUDS. AGAIN EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH JUST
A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. HGTS
KEEP RISING AND TUESDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAYS. MOST MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

MDLS SHOW A SLIGHT EDDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST COASTS
WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS SAVE THE SBA SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL REMAIN
CLEAR DUE TO WEAK NORTH FLOW. HIGHER HGTS SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER SMOOSHED OUT OF THE VLYS. NORTH FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH SLOPES AS WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY BY
MID MORNING BUT THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL KNOCK A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS THE
INTERIOR TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM TUESDAYS READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ALL EYES ON THE XTND FCST. IT IS ACTUALLY PRETTY SIMPLE. ALL MDLS
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY...PEAK SATURDAY AND THEN WEAKEN JUST A TAD SUNDAY.
AT THE SFC A NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP PEAKING JUST AFTER
DAWN EACH MORNING AND SUBSIDING TO NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOONS.

HOT HOT AND HOT IS ABOUT THE ONLY WAY TO DESCRIBE THE XTND FCST. VLY
TEMPS JUMP INTO THE 90S THURSDAY BUT THEN ITS 3 OR 4 DAYS OF TRIPLE
DIGIT MAX TEMPS. COASTAL TEMPS WILL RANGE FORM THE LOWER 80S AT THE
BEACHES TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

THE HIGH PEAKS AT 593 DM SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY.
HGTS AND TEMPS SLOWLY FALL SUN AND MON.

THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF OVERNIGHT
COOLING AND MANY VLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. DURING THIS
EVENT MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE WILL BE SOME SANTA ANA CANYON WINDS EACH MORNING BUT RIGHT NOW
THE LACK OF UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT SHOULD MAKE THIS A WEAK EVENT
WITH JUST 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS. OF COURSE THIS COULD CHANGE SO A CLOSE
EYE WILL BE KEPT OF THE WIND PARAMETERS IN CASE THEY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z...

THERE IS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX THIS MORNING.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS FOR THE COASTAL AND
ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS.  BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG IS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THOUGH PERIODIC MVFR CIGS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COAST AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS.  KPRB WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
18Z-20Z. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

KLAX...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE REDUCED
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER
DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

KBUR...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER DEVELOPMENT AND A TEN
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS 13Z-17Z.  THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...29/300 AM...
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GIVE
WAY TO STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.  WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
ARE LIKELY TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY
EVEN DO SO BY LATE ON TUESDAY.

A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL ORIGINATING FROM HURRICANE RACHEL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 291255
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
NEVADA MOVES EAST. HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND OFFSHORE DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
MARIE LAYER REMAINS VEXING. EDDY DID NOT FORM AS FORECAST AND
INVERSION DID NOT STRENGTHEN AS WAS ALSO FCST. AS A RESULT THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW MORE
HOURS OF COOLING TO GO SO THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MARINE
CLOUDS AROUND DAWN BUT AT WORST THERE WILL BE PATCHY CLOUDS. IN ANY
CASE SUNNY BY MID MORNING. NOT MUCH OF A SUNDOWNER EARLY THIS
MORNING EITHER. CURRENTLY SOCAL IS UNDER DRY NW FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN
THE EXITING LOW MOVING INTO UTAH AND AN APPROACHING EAST PAC RIDGE.
RISING HGTS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS UP SEVERAL
DEGREE COMPARED TO YDY WITH THE BEST WARMING AWAY FROM THE COASTS.

MDLS NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE TO THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT IF ANYTHING
SHOWING LESS VLY CLOUDS. AGAIN EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH JUST
A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. SRN SBA
COUNTY WILL SEE A DECENT SUNDOWNER EVENT MAINLY FOCUSED THROUGH THE
GAVIOTA PASS. A LOW END ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT.

HGTS KEEP RISING AND TUESDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAYS. MOST MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

MDLS SHOW A SLIGHT EDDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST COASTS
WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS SAVE THE SBA SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL REMAIN
CLEAR DUE TO WEAK NORTH FLOW. HIGHER HGTS SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER SMOOSHED OUT OF THE VLYS. NORTH FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH SLOPES AS WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY BY
MID MORNING BUT THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL KNOCK A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS THE
INTERIOR TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM TUESDAYS READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ALL EYES ON THE XTND FCST. IT IS ACTUALLY PRETTY SIMPLE. ALL MDLS
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY...PEAK SATURDAY AND THEN WEAKEN JUST A TAD SUNDAY.
AT THE SFC A NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP PEAKING JUST AFTER
DAWN EACH MORNING AND SUBSIDING TO NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOONS.

HOT HOT AND HOT IS ABOUT THE ONLY WAY TO DESCRIBE THE XTND FCST. VLY
TEMPS JUMP INTO THE 90S THURSDAY BUT THEN ITS 3 OR 4 DAYS OF TRIPLE
DIGIT MAX TEMPS. COASTAL TEMPS WILL RANGE FORM THE LOWER 80S AT THE
BEACHES TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

THE HIGH PEAKS AT 593 DM SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY.
HGTS AND TEMPS SLOWLY FALL SUN AND MON.

THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF OVERNIGHT
COOLING AND MANY VLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. DURING THIS
EVENT MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE WILL BE SOME SANTA ANA CANYON WINDS EACH MORNING BUT RIGHT NOW
THE LACK OF UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT SHOULD MAKE THIS A WEAK EVENT
WITH JUST 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS. OF COURSE THIS COULD CHANGE SO A CLOSE
EYE WILL BE KEPT OF THE WIND PARAMETERS IN CASE THEY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z...

THERE IS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX THIS MORNING.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS FOR THE COASTAL AND
ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS.  BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG IS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THOUGH PERIODIC MVFR CIGS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COAST AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS.  KPRB WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
18Z-20Z. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

KLAX...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE REDUCED
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER
DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

KBUR...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER DEVELOPMENT AND A TEN
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS 13Z-17Z.  THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...29/300 AM...
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GIVE
WAY TO STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.  WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
ARE LIKELY TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY
EVEN DO SO BY LATE ON TUESDAY.

A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL ORIGINATING FROM HURRICANE RACHEL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 291255
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
NEVADA MOVES EAST. HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND OFFSHORE DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
MARIE LAYER REMAINS VEXING. EDDY DID NOT FORM AS FORECAST AND
INVERSION DID NOT STRENGTHEN AS WAS ALSO FCST. AS A RESULT THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW MORE
HOURS OF COOLING TO GO SO THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MARINE
CLOUDS AROUND DAWN BUT AT WORST THERE WILL BE PATCHY CLOUDS. IN ANY
CASE SUNNY BY MID MORNING. NOT MUCH OF A SUNDOWNER EARLY THIS
MORNING EITHER. CURRENTLY SOCAL IS UNDER DRY NW FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN
THE EXITING LOW MOVING INTO UTAH AND AN APPROACHING EAST PAC RIDGE.
RISING HGTS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS UP SEVERAL
DEGREE COMPARED TO YDY WITH THE BEST WARMING AWAY FROM THE COASTS.

MDLS NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE TO THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT IF ANYTHING
SHOWING LESS VLY CLOUDS. AGAIN EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH JUST
A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. SRN SBA
COUNTY WILL SEE A DECENT SUNDOWNER EVENT MAINLY FOCUSED THROUGH THE
GAVIOTA PASS. A LOW END ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT.

HGTS KEEP RISING AND TUESDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAYS. MOST MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

MDLS SHOW A SLIGHT EDDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST COASTS
WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS SAVE THE SBA SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL REMAIN
CLEAR DUE TO WEAK NORTH FLOW. HIGHER HGTS SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER SMOOSHED OUT OF THE VLYS. NORTH FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH SLOPES AS WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY BY
MID MORNING BUT THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL KNOCK A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS THE
INTERIOR TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM TUESDAYS READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ALL EYES ON THE XTND FCST. IT IS ACTUALLY PRETTY SIMPLE. ALL MDLS
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY...PEAK SATURDAY AND THEN WEAKEN JUST A TAD SUNDAY.
AT THE SFC A NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP PEAKING JUST AFTER
DAWN EACH MORNING AND SUBSIDING TO NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOONS.

HOT HOT AND HOT IS ABOUT THE ONLY WAY TO DESCRIBE THE XTND FCST. VLY
TEMPS JUMP INTO THE 90S THURSDAY BUT THEN ITS 3 OR 4 DAYS OF TRIPLE
DIGIT MAX TEMPS. COASTAL TEMPS WILL RANGE FORM THE LOWER 80S AT THE
BEACHES TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

THE HIGH PEAKS AT 593 DM SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY.
HGTS AND TEMPS SLOWLY FALL SUN AND MON.

THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF OVERNIGHT
COOLING AND MANY VLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. DURING THIS
EVENT MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE WILL BE SOME SANTA ANA CANYON WINDS EACH MORNING BUT RIGHT NOW
THE LACK OF UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT SHOULD MAKE THIS A WEAK EVENT
WITH JUST 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS. OF COURSE THIS COULD CHANGE SO A CLOSE
EYE WILL BE KEPT OF THE WIND PARAMETERS IN CASE THEY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z...

THERE IS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX THIS MORNING.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS FOR THE COASTAL AND
ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS.  BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG IS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THOUGH PERIODIC MVFR CIGS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COAST AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS.  KPRB WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
18Z-20Z. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

KLAX...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE REDUCED
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER
DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

KBUR...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER DEVELOPMENT AND A TEN
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS 13Z-17Z.  THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...29/300 AM...
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GIVE
WAY TO STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.  WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
ARE LIKELY TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY
EVEN DO SO BY LATE ON TUESDAY.

A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL ORIGINATING FROM HURRICANE RACHEL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 291148
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
NEVADA MOVES EAST. HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND OFFSHORE DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
MARIE LAYER REMAINS VEXING. EDDY DID NOT FORM AS FORECAST AND
INVERSION DID NOT STRENGTHEN AS WAS ALSO FCST. AS A RESULT THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW MORE
HOURS OF COOLING TO GO SO THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MARINE
CLOUDS AROUND DAWN BUT AT WORST THERE WILL BE PATCHY CLOUDS. IN ANY
CASE SUNNY BY MID MORNING. NOT MUCH OF A SUNDOWNER EARLY THIS
MORNING EITHER. CURRENTLY SOCAL IS UNDER DRY NW FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN
THE EXITING LOW MOVING INTO UTAH AND AN APPROACHING EAST PAC RIDGE.
RISING HGTS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS UP SEVERAL
DEGREE COMPARED TO YDY WITH THE BEST WARMING AWAY FROM THE COASTS.

MDLS NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE TO THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT IF ANYTHING
SHOWING LESS VLY CLOUDS. AGAIN EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH JUST
A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. SRN SBA
COUNTY WILL SEE A DECENT SUNDOWNER EVENT MAINLY FOCUSED THROUGH THE
GAVIOTA PASS. A LOW END ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT.

HGTS KEEP RISING AND TUESDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAYS. MOST MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

MDLS SHOW A SLIGHT EDDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST COASTS
WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS SAVE THE SBA SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL REMAIN
CLEAR DUE TO WEAK NORTH FLOW. HIGHER HGTS SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER SMOOSHED OUT OF THE VLYS. NORTH FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH SLOPES AS WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY BY
MID MORNING BUT THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL KNOCK A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS THE
INTERIOR TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM TUESDAYS READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ALL EYES ON THE XTND FCST. IT IS ACTUALLY PRETTY SIMPLE. ALL MDLS
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY...PEAK SATURDAY AND THEN WEAKEN JUST A TAD SUNDAY.
AT THE SFC A NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP PEAKING JUST AFTER
DAWN EACH MORNING AND SUBSIDING TO NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOONS.

HOT HOT AND HOT IS ABOUT THE ONLY WAY TO DESCRIBE THE XTND FCST. VLY
TEMPS JUMP INTO THE 90S THURSDAY BUT THEN ITS 3 OR 4 DAYS OF TRIPLE
DIGIT MAX TEMPS. COASTAL TEMPS WILL RANGE FORM THE LOWER 80S AT THE
BEACHES TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

THE HIGH PEAKS AT 593 DM SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY.
HGTS AND TEMPS SLOWLY FALL SUN AND MON.

THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF OVERNIGHT
COOLING AND MANY VLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. DURING THIS
EVENT MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE WILL BE SOME SANTA ANA CANYON WINDS EACH MORNING BUT RIGHT NOW
THE LACK OF UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT SHOULD MAKE THIS A WEAK EVENT
WITH JUST 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS. OF COURSE THIS COULD CHANGE SO A CLOSE
EYE WILL BE KEPT OF THE WIND PARAMETERS IN CASE THEY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS FOR THE COASTAL AND
ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS.  BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG IS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THOUGH PERIODIC MVFR CIGS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COAST AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS.  KPRB WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
18Z-20Z. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

KLAX...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE REDUCED
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER
DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

THE MARINE INVERSION AT LAX AT 06Z WAS 700 FEET DEEP WITH A TOP OF
1400 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES CELSIUS.

KBUR...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER DEVELOPMENT AND A TEN
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS 13Z-17Z.  THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...29/300 AM...
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GIVE
WAY TO STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.  WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
ARE LIKELY TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY
EVEN DO SO BY LATE ON TUESDAY.

A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL ORIGINATING FROM HURRICANE RACHEL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 291030
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
NEVADA MOVES EAST. HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND OFFSHORE DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
MARIE LAYER REMAINS VEXING. EDDY DID NOT FORM AS FORECAST AND
INVERSION DID NOT STRENGTHEN AS WAS ALSO FCST. AS A RESULT THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW MORE
HOURS OF COOLING TO GO SO THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MARINE
CLOUDS AROUND DAWN BUT AT WORST THERE WILL BE PATCHY CLOUDS. IN ANY
CASE SUNNY BY MID MORNING. NOT MUCH OF A SUNDOWNER EARLY THIS
MORNING EITHER. CURRENTLY SOCAL IS UNDER DRY NW FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN
THE EXITING LOW MOVING INTO UTAH AND AN APPROACHING EAST PAC RIDGE.
RISING HGTS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS UP SEVERAL
DEGREE COMPARED TO YDY WITH THE BEST WARMING AWAY FROM THE COASTS.

MDLS NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE TO THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT IF ANYTHING
SHOWING LESS VLY CLOUDS. AGAIN EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH JUST
A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. SRN SBA
COUNTY WILL SEE A DECENT SUNDOWNER EVENT MAINLY FOCUSED THROUGH THE
GAVIOTA PASS. A LOW END ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT.

HGTS KEEP RISING AND TUESDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAYS. MOST MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

MDLS SHOW A SLIGHT EDDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST COASTS
WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS SAVE THE SBA SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL REMAIN
CLEAR DUE TO WEAK NORTH FLOW. HIGHER HGTS SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER SMOOSHED OUT OF THE VLYS. NORTH FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH SLOPES AS WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY BY
MID MORNING BUT THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL KNOCK A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS THE
INTERIOR TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM TUESDAYS READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ALL EYES ON THE XTND FCST. IT IS ACTUALLY PRETTY SIMPLE. ALL MDLS
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY...PEAK SATURDAY AND THEN WEAKEN JUST A TAD SUNDAY.
AT THE SFC A NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP PEAKING JUST AFTER
DAWN EACH MORNING AND SUBSIDING TO NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOONS.

HOT HOT AND HOT IS ABOUT THE ONLY WAY TO DESCRIBE THE XTND FCST. VLY
TEMPS JUMP INTO THE 90S THURSDAY BUT THEN ITS 3 OR 4 DAYS OF TRIPLE
DIGIT MAX TEMPS. COASTAL TEMPS WILL RANGE FORM THE LOWER 80S AT THE
BEACHES TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

THE HIGH PEAKS AT 593 DM SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY.
HGTS AND TEMPS SLOWLY FALL SUN AND MON.

THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF OVERNIGHT
COOLING AND MANY VLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. DURING THIS
EVENT MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE WILL BE SOME SANTA ANA CANYON WINDS EACH MORNING BUT RIGHT NOW
THE LACK OF UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT SHOULD MAKE THIS A WEAK EVENT
WITH JUST 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS. OF COURSE THIS COULD CHANGE SO A CLOSE
EYE WILL BE KEPT OF THE WIND PARAMETERS IN CASE THEY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE

KLAX...

KBUR...

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM...

WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GIVE
WAY TO STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.  WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
ARE LIKELY TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY
EVEN DO SO BY LATE ON TUESDAY.
A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL ORIGINATING FROM HURRICANE RACHEL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 291030
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
NEVADA MOVES EAST. HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND OFFSHORE DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
MARIE LAYER REMAINS VEXING. EDDY DID NOT FORM AS FORECAST AND
INVERSION DID NOT STRENGTHEN AS WAS ALSO FCST. AS A RESULT THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW MORE
HOURS OF COOLING TO GO SO THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MARINE
CLOUDS AROUND DAWN BUT AT WORST THERE WILL BE PATCHY CLOUDS. IN ANY
CASE SUNNY BY MID MORNING. NOT MUCH OF A SUNDOWNER EARLY THIS
MORNING EITHER. CURRENTLY SOCAL IS UNDER DRY NW FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN
THE EXITING LOW MOVING INTO UTAH AND AN APPROACHING EAST PAC RIDGE.
RISING HGTS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS UP SEVERAL
DEGREE COMPARED TO YDY WITH THE BEST WARMING AWAY FROM THE COASTS.

MDLS NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE TO THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT IF ANYTHING
SHOWING LESS VLY CLOUDS. AGAIN EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH JUST
A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. SRN SBA
COUNTY WILL SEE A DECENT SUNDOWNER EVENT MAINLY FOCUSED THROUGH THE
GAVIOTA PASS. A LOW END ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT.

HGTS KEEP RISING AND TUESDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAYS. MOST MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

MDLS SHOW A SLIGHT EDDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST COASTS
WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS SAVE THE SBA SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL REMAIN
CLEAR DUE TO WEAK NORTH FLOW. HIGHER HGTS SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER SMOOSHED OUT OF THE VLYS. NORTH FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH SLOPES AS WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY BY
MID MORNING BUT THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL KNOCK A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OFF OF THE MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS THE
INTERIOR TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM TUESDAYS READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ALL EYES ON THE XTND FCST. IT IS ACTUALLY PRETTY SIMPLE. ALL MDLS
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY...PEAK SATURDAY AND THEN WEAKEN JUST A TAD SUNDAY.
AT THE SFC A NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP PEAKING JUST AFTER
DAWN EACH MORNING AND SUBSIDING TO NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOONS.

HOT HOT AND HOT IS ABOUT THE ONLY WAY TO DESCRIBE THE XTND FCST. VLY
TEMPS JUMP INTO THE 90S THURSDAY BUT THEN ITS 3 OR 4 DAYS OF TRIPLE
DIGIT MAX TEMPS. COASTAL TEMPS WILL RANGE FORM THE LOWER 80S AT THE
BEACHES TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

THE HIGH PEAKS AT 593 DM SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY.
HGTS AND TEMPS SLOWLY FALL SUN AND MON.

THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF OVERNIGHT
COOLING AND MANY VLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. DURING THIS
EVENT MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE WILL BE SOME SANTA ANA CANYON WINDS EACH MORNING BUT RIGHT NOW
THE LACK OF UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT SHOULD MAKE THIS A WEAK EVENT
WITH JUST 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS. OF COURSE THIS COULD CHANGE SO A CLOSE
EYE WILL BE KEPT OF THE WIND PARAMETERS IN CASE THEY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE

KLAX...

KBUR...

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM...

WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GIVE
WAY TO STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.  WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
ARE LIKELY TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY
EVEN DO SO BY LATE ON TUESDAY.
A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL ORIGINATING FROM HURRICANE RACHEL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 290601
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NEVADA MOVES EAST. HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY LATE IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME
EAST CENTRAL CA THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO MOVE E AND INTO WESTERN
UTAH BY LATE TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS INTO EASTERN SLO COUNTY FOR A WHILE
OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHEASTERN SBA COUNTY AND THE
NORTHERN MTNS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. THERE WERE ALSO LINGERING
STRATOCU OVER THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS THIS EVENING WHICH HAS PUSHED
INTO THE L.A. COUNTY VLYS. THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR A WHILE
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MARINE LAYER
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE
COAST AND VLYS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AS THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD NOT BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED AND
COULD BE PATCHY AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MOST PART THRU THE NIGHT.
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AS WELL
AS LOCAL NORTH CANYON WINDS ALONG THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E THRU MON WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH BUILDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CA COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OFF THE CA COAST TUE AND WED...WITH A
BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST OVER SWRN CA MON THRU WED. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BY MON AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE THRU WED...
EXCEPT FOR SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST AND MAINLY THE L.A. COUNTY COAST. THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THRU
TUE...WITH A BIT STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW LATER TUE NIGHT THRU THE DAY
ON WED...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENINGS THRU TUE...WITH NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TUE EVENING. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO WARM SOME FOR MON BUT REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN
INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUE...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MANY AREAS ON WED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
CONSISTENTLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...PEAKING IN STRENGTH ON FRIDAY THEN
VERY SLOWLY WEAKENING SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...GRADIENTS
LOOK TO BE OFFSHORE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS (WITH STRONGEST OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS FRIDAY MORNING) THEN EITHER WEAKLY OFFSHORE/WEAKLY ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

FORECAST-WISE...THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
THE HEAT. WITH THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND BUILDING RIDGE...THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE AN IMPRESSIVE WARMING TREND (WITH LOW 100S
IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 80S/MID 90S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY). ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO GET A BIT
OF A FOOTHOLD AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN. SO...WILL ANTICIPATE
SOME COOLING ON SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY WARM CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH SOME
VALLEY/FOOTHILL AREAS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 70S AT NIGHT.

AS FOR WINDS...THE UPPER SUPPORT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS TIME. SO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MODERATE OR STRONG SANTA ANA
WINDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE INGREDIENTS TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR OFFSHORE WINDS.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DRY THINGS OUT NOTICEABLY. BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO IN THE LOW TEENS/SINGLE
DIGITS WITH POOR RECOVERIES AT NIGHT. SO...WITH THE CURRENT CRITICAL
STATE OF THE VEGETATION...THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE WINDS BECOME
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS FOR THE COASTAL AND
ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS.  BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG IS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THOUGH PERIODIC MVFR CIGS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COAST AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS.  KPRB SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

KLAX...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH THE REDUCED
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER
DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

THE MARINE INVERSION AT LAX AT 04Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP WITH A TOP OF
1800 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 16 DEGREES CELSIUS.

KBUR...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH THE REDUCED
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER
DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...28/800 PM...
THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE OUTER WATERS IN THE
SOUTH HALF TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE
LOCALLY GENERATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. A SOUTH
SOUTHEAST SWELL ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY AND SUBSIDE TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RAT
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 290601
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NEVADA MOVES EAST. HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY LATE IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME
EAST CENTRAL CA THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO MOVE E AND INTO WESTERN
UTAH BY LATE TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS INTO EASTERN SLO COUNTY FOR A WHILE
OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHEASTERN SBA COUNTY AND THE
NORTHERN MTNS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. THERE WERE ALSO LINGERING
STRATOCU OVER THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS THIS EVENING WHICH HAS PUSHED
INTO THE L.A. COUNTY VLYS. THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR A WHILE
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MARINE LAYER
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE
COAST AND VLYS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AS THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD NOT BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED AND
COULD BE PATCHY AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MOST PART THRU THE NIGHT.
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AS WELL
AS LOCAL NORTH CANYON WINDS ALONG THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E THRU MON WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH BUILDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CA COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OFF THE CA COAST TUE AND WED...WITH A
BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST OVER SWRN CA MON THRU WED. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BY MON AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE THRU WED...
EXCEPT FOR SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST AND MAINLY THE L.A. COUNTY COAST. THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THRU
TUE...WITH A BIT STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW LATER TUE NIGHT THRU THE DAY
ON WED...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENINGS THRU TUE...WITH NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TUE EVENING. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO WARM SOME FOR MON BUT REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN
INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUE...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MANY AREAS ON WED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
CONSISTENTLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...PEAKING IN STRENGTH ON FRIDAY THEN
VERY SLOWLY WEAKENING SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...GRADIENTS
LOOK TO BE OFFSHORE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS (WITH STRONGEST OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS FRIDAY MORNING) THEN EITHER WEAKLY OFFSHORE/WEAKLY ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

FORECAST-WISE...THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
THE HEAT. WITH THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND BUILDING RIDGE...THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE AN IMPRESSIVE WARMING TREND (WITH LOW 100S
IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 80S/MID 90S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY). ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO GET A BIT
OF A FOOTHOLD AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN. SO...WILL ANTICIPATE
SOME COOLING ON SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY WARM CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH SOME
VALLEY/FOOTHILL AREAS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 70S AT NIGHT.

AS FOR WINDS...THE UPPER SUPPORT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS TIME. SO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MODERATE OR STRONG SANTA ANA
WINDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE INGREDIENTS TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR OFFSHORE WINDS.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DRY THINGS OUT NOTICEABLY. BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO IN THE LOW TEENS/SINGLE
DIGITS WITH POOR RECOVERIES AT NIGHT. SO...WITH THE CURRENT CRITICAL
STATE OF THE VEGETATION...THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE WINDS BECOME
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS FOR THE COASTAL AND
ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS.  BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG IS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THOUGH PERIODIC MVFR CIGS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COAST AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS.  KPRB SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

KLAX...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH THE REDUCED
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER
DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

THE MARINE INVERSION AT LAX AT 04Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP WITH A TOP OF
1800 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 16 DEGREES CELSIUS.

KBUR...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH THE REDUCED
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE LAYER
DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...28/800 PM...
THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE OUTER WATERS IN THE
SOUTH HALF TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE
LOCALLY GENERATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. A SOUTH
SOUTHEAST SWELL ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY AND SUBSIDE TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RAT
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 290349
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
850 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NEVADA MOVES EAST. HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY LATE IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME
EAST CENTRAL CA THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO MOVE E AND INTO WESTERN
UTAH BY LATE TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS INTO EASTERN SLO COUNTY FOR A WHILE
OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHEASTERN SBA COUNTY AND THE
NORTHERN MTNS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. THERE WERE ALSO LINGERING
STRATOCU OVER THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS THIS EVENING WHICH HAS PUSHED
INTO THE L.A. COUNTY VLYS. THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR A WHILE
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MARINE LAYER
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE
COAST AND VLYS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AS THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD NOT BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED AND
COULD BE PATCHY AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MOST PART THRU THE NIGHT.
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AS WELL
AS LOCAL NORTH CANYON WINDS ALONG THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E THRU MON WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH BUILDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CA COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OFF THE CA COAST TUE AND WED...WITH A
BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST OVER SWRN CA MON THRU WED. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BY MON AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE THRU WED...
EXCEPT FOR SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST AND MAINLY THE L.A. COUNTY COAST. THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THRU
TUE...WITH A BIT STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW LATER TUE NIGHT THRU THE DAY
ON WED...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENINGS THRU TUE...WITH NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TUE EVENING. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO WARM SOME FOR MON BUT REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN
INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUE...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MANY AREAS ON WED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
CONSISTENTLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...PEAKING IN STRENGTH ON FRIDAY THEN
VERY SLOWLY WEAKENING SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...GRADIENTS
LOOK TO BE OFFSHORE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS (WITH STRONGEST OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS FRIDAY MORNING) THEN EITHER WEAKLY OFFSHORE/WEAKLY ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

FORECAST-WISE...THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
THE HEAT. WITH THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND BUILDING RIDGE...THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE AN IMPRESSIVE WARMING TREND (WITH LOW 100S
IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 80S/MID 90S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY). ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO GET A BIT
OF A FOOTHOLD AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN. SO...WILL ANTICIPATE
SOME COOLING ON SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY WARM CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH SOME
VALLEY/FOOTHILL AREAS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 70S AT NIGHT.

AS FOR WINDS...THE UPPER SUPPORT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS TIME. SO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MODERATE OR STRONG SANTA ANA
WINDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE INGREDIENTS TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR OFFSHORE WINDS.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DRY THINGS OUT NOTICEABLY. BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO IN THE LOW TEENS/SINGLE
DIGITS WITH POOR RECOVERIES AT NIGHT. SO...WITH THE CURRENT CRITICAL
STATE OF THE VEGETATION...THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE WINDS BECOME
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.AVIATION...29/0000Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING FOR THE COASTAL
AND ADJACENT VALLEY AIRFIELDS...EXCEPT AT KSBA. THE EXPECTED ONSET
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM 05Z AT KSBP AND KSMX TO 11Z AT KBUR
AND KVNY...ALTHO KLAX WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS 00Z-03Z
THIS EVENING. IT IS LIKELY THAT ONCE CIGS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD BE
INTERMITTENT AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE AIRFIELDS. THE TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE MON MORNING...ALTHO THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING WHICH MAY BE
OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THESE AIRFIELDS THRU MON AFTERNOON. FOR KSBA...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THRU MON AFTERNOON ALTHO THERE IS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS EARLY TO MID MON MORNING. HI CONFIDENCE
IN THE 00Z TAFS AT KWJF AND KPMD WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU MON. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL AFFECT KWJF AND KPMD THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND MON MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE THE LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
AROUND 10Z THEN LINGER THRU ABOUT 17Z MON. IT IS LIKELY THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE INTERMITTENT DURING THE PERIOD. THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND MON MORNING MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU MON EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND MON MORNING. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 11Z THEN LINGER THRU
ABOUT 17Z MON. IT IS LIKELY THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE INTERMITTENT
DURING THE PERIOD. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND MON MORNING MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2
HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD
THRU MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...28/800 PM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE OUTER WATERS IN THE
SOUTH HALF TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE
LOCALLY GENERATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. A SOUTH
SOUTHEAST SWELL ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY AND SUBSIDE TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RAT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 290006 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
505 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING SLOWLY INTO NEVADA WILL KEEP
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. GRADUAL WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS
EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND A RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY...WITH NEAR NEUTRAL GRADIENTS AT
NIGHT.

FORECAST-WISE...MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE MARINE
LAYER STRATUS AND TEMPERATURES. WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING TONIGHT...THE
MARINE INVERSION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED TONIGHT AND
ALLOW A MORE TYPICAL STRATUS PATTERN. WILL KEEP PREVIOUS IDEA OF
BRINGING STRATUS INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS/SALINAS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL EXPECT THE
INVERSION TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW...AND STRATUS COVERAGE TO BE MORE
LIMITED (GENERALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND LA/VENTURA COUNTY
COASTS) ALTHOUGH HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE A BIT BETTER EDDY BY
TUESDAY NIGHT SO MARINE LAYER MAY HAVE ITS OWN IDEAS. OTHER THAN
THIS MARINE LAYER STRATUS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...INLAND AREAS
WILL EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE COASTS AND
COASTAL VALLEYS...THINGS WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO WEAKENING ONSHORE
GRADIENTS. HOWEVER FOR WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE MOS NUMBERS AND LOCAL
TEMP STUDY DATABASE INDICATE A BIT OF COASTAL/VALLEY COOLING WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON ANTICIPATED STRATUS COVERAGE (WITH WEAK
EDDY FORECAST). SO...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT COOLING FOR THESE AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDOWNERS
ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF EVENINGS. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY SUNDOWNER WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER FOR MONDAY EVENING...THE UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS BETTER
AND THE GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER...SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
CONSISTENTLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...PEAKING IN STRENGTH ON FRIDAY THEN
VERY SLOWLY WEAKENING SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...GRADIENTS
LOOK TO BE OFFSHORE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS (WITH STRONGEST OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS FRIDAY MORNING) THEN EITHER WEAKLY OFFSHORE/WEAKLY ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

FORECAST-WISE...THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
THE HEAT. WITH THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND BUILDING RIDGE...THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE AN IMPRESSIVE WARMING TREND (WITH LOW 100S
IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 80S/MID 90S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY). ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO GET A BIT
OF A FOOTHOLD AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN. SO...WILL ANTICIPATE
SOME COOLING ON SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY WARM CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH SOME
VALLEY/FOOTHILL AREAS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 70S AT NIGHT.

AS FOR WINDS...THE UPPER SUPPORT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS TIME. SO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MODERATE OR STRONG SANTA ANA
WINDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE INGREDIENTS TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR OFFSHORE WINDS.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DRY THINGS OUT NOTICEABLY. BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO IN THE LOW TEENS/SINGLE
DIGITS WITH POOR RECOVERIES AT NIGHT. SO...WITH THE CURRENT CRITICAL
STATE OF THE VEGETATION...THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE WINDS BECOME
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.AVIATION...29/0000Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING FOR THE COASTAL
AND ADJACENT VALLEY AIRFIELDS...EXCEPT AT KSBA. THE EXPECTED ONSET
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM 05Z AT KSBP AND KSMX TO 11Z AT KBUR
AND KVNY...ALTHO KLAX WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS 00Z-03Z
THIS EVENING. IT IS LIKELY THAT ONCE CIGS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD BE
INTERMITTENT AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE AIRFIELDS. THE TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE MON MORNING...ALTHO THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING WHICH MAY BE
OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THESE AIRFIELDS THRU MON AFTERNOON. FOR KSBA...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THRU MON AFTERNOON ALTHO THERE IS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS EARLY TO MID MON MORNING. HI CONFIDENCE
IN THE 00Z TAFS AT KWJF AND KPMD WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU MON. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL AFFECT KWJF AND KPMD THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND MON MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE THE LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
AROUND 10Z THEN LINGER THRU ABOUT 17Z MON. IT IS LIKELY THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE INTERMITTENT DURING THE PERIOD. THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND MON MORNING MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU MON EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND MON MORNING. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 11Z THEN LINGER THRU
ABOUT 17Z MON. IT IS LIKELY THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE INTERMITTENT
DURING THE PERIOD. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND MON MORNING MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2
HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD
THRU MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE OUTER WATERS IN THE
SOUTH HALF TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE
LOCALLY GENERATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. A SOUTH
SOUTHEAST SWELL ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY AND SUBSIDE TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 290006 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
505 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING SLOWLY INTO NEVADA WILL KEEP
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. GRADUAL WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS
EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND A RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY...WITH NEAR NEUTRAL GRADIENTS AT
NIGHT.

FORECAST-WISE...MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE MARINE
LAYER STRATUS AND TEMPERATURES. WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING TONIGHT...THE
MARINE INVERSION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED TONIGHT AND
ALLOW A MORE TYPICAL STRATUS PATTERN. WILL KEEP PREVIOUS IDEA OF
BRINGING STRATUS INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS/SALINAS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL EXPECT THE
INVERSION TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW...AND STRATUS COVERAGE TO BE MORE
LIMITED (GENERALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND LA/VENTURA COUNTY
COASTS) ALTHOUGH HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE A BIT BETTER EDDY BY
TUESDAY NIGHT SO MARINE LAYER MAY HAVE ITS OWN IDEAS. OTHER THAN
THIS MARINE LAYER STRATUS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...INLAND AREAS
WILL EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE COASTS AND
COASTAL VALLEYS...THINGS WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO WEAKENING ONSHORE
GRADIENTS. HOWEVER FOR WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE MOS NUMBERS AND LOCAL
TEMP STUDY DATABASE INDICATE A BIT OF COASTAL/VALLEY COOLING WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON ANTICIPATED STRATUS COVERAGE (WITH WEAK
EDDY FORECAST). SO...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT COOLING FOR THESE AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDOWNERS
ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF EVENINGS. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY SUNDOWNER WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER FOR MONDAY EVENING...THE UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS BETTER
AND THE GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER...SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
CONSISTENTLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...PEAKING IN STRENGTH ON FRIDAY THEN
VERY SLOWLY WEAKENING SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...GRADIENTS
LOOK TO BE OFFSHORE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS (WITH STRONGEST OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS FRIDAY MORNING) THEN EITHER WEAKLY OFFSHORE/WEAKLY ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

FORECAST-WISE...THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
THE HEAT. WITH THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND BUILDING RIDGE...THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE AN IMPRESSIVE WARMING TREND (WITH LOW 100S
IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 80S/MID 90S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY). ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO GET A BIT
OF A FOOTHOLD AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN. SO...WILL ANTICIPATE
SOME COOLING ON SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY WARM CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH SOME
VALLEY/FOOTHILL AREAS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 70S AT NIGHT.

AS FOR WINDS...THE UPPER SUPPORT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS TIME. SO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MODERATE OR STRONG SANTA ANA
WINDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE INGREDIENTS TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR OFFSHORE WINDS.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DRY THINGS OUT NOTICEABLY. BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO IN THE LOW TEENS/SINGLE
DIGITS WITH POOR RECOVERIES AT NIGHT. SO...WITH THE CURRENT CRITICAL
STATE OF THE VEGETATION...THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE WINDS BECOME
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.AVIATION...29/0000Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING FOR THE COASTAL
AND ADJACENT VALLEY AIRFIELDS...EXCEPT AT KSBA. THE EXPECTED ONSET
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM 05Z AT KSBP AND KSMX TO 11Z AT KBUR
AND KVNY...ALTHO KLAX WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS 00Z-03Z
THIS EVENING. IT IS LIKELY THAT ONCE CIGS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD BE
INTERMITTENT AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE AIRFIELDS. THE TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE MON MORNING...ALTHO THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING WHICH MAY BE
OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THESE AIRFIELDS THRU MON AFTERNOON. FOR KSBA...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THRU MON AFTERNOON ALTHO THERE IS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS EARLY TO MID MON MORNING. HI CONFIDENCE
IN THE 00Z TAFS AT KWJF AND KPMD WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU MON. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL AFFECT KWJF AND KPMD THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND MON MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE THE LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
AROUND 10Z THEN LINGER THRU ABOUT 17Z MON. IT IS LIKELY THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE INTERMITTENT DURING THE PERIOD. THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND MON MORNING MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU MON EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND MON MORNING. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 11Z THEN LINGER THRU
ABOUT 17Z MON. IT IS LIKELY THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE INTERMITTENT
DURING THE PERIOD. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND MON MORNING MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2
HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD
THRU MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE OUTER WATERS IN THE
SOUTH HALF TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE
LOCALLY GENERATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. A SOUTH
SOUTHEAST SWELL ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY AND SUBSIDE TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 282034
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING SLOWLY INTO NEVADA WILL KEEP
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. GRADUAL WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS
EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND A RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY...WITH NEAR NEUTRAL GRADIENTS AT
NIGHT.

FORECAST-WISE...MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE MARINE
LAYER STRATUS AND TEMPERATURES. WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING TONIGHT...THE
MARINE INVERSION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED TONIGHT AND
ALLOW A MORE TYPICAL STRATUS PATTERN. WILL KEEP PREVIOUS IDEA OF
BRINGING STRATUS INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS/SALINAS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL EXPECT THE
INVERSION TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW...AND STRATUS COVERAGE TO BE MORE
LIMITED (GENERALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND LA/VENTURA COUNTY
COASTS) ALTHOUGH HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE A BIT BETTER EDDY BY
TUESDAY NIGHT SO MARINE LAYER MAY HAVE ITS OWN IDEAS. OTHER THAN
THIS MARINE LAYER STRATUS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...INLAND AREAS
WILL EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE COASTS AND
COASTAL VALLEYS...THINGS WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO WEAKENING ONSHORE
GRADIENTS. HOWEVER FOR WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE MOS NUMBERS AND LOCAL
TEMP STUDY DATABASE INDICATE A BIT OF COASTAL/VALLEY COOLING WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON ANTICIPATED STRATUS COVERAGE (WITH WEAK
EDDY FORECAST). SO...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT COOLING FOR THESE AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDOWNERS
ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF EVENINGS. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY SUNDOWNER WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER FOR MONDAY EVENING...THE UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS BETTER
AND THE GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER...SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
CONSISTENTLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...PEAKING IN STRENGTH ON FRIDAY THEN
VERY SLOWLY WEAKENING SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...GRADIENTS
LOOK TO BE OFFSHORE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS (WITH STRONGEST OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS FRIDAY MORNING) THEN EITHER WEAKLY OFFSHORE/WEAKLY ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

FORECAST-WISE...THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
THE HEAT. WITH THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND BUILDING RIDGE...THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE AN IMPRESSIVE WARMING TREND (WITH LOW 100S
IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 80S/MID 90S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY). ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO GET A BIT
OF A FOOTHOLD AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN. SO...WILL ANTICIPATE
SOME COOLING ON SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY WARM CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH SOME
VALLEY/FOOTHILL AREAS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 70S AT NIGHT.

AS FOR WINDS...THE UPPER SUPPORT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS TIME. SO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MODERATE OR STRONG SANTA ANA
WINDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE INGREDIENTS TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR OFFSHORE WINDS.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DRY THINGS OUT NOTICEABLY. BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO IN THE LOW TEENS/SINGLE
DIGITS WITH POOR RECOVERIES AT NIGHT. SO...WITH THE CURRENT CRITICAL
STATE OF THE VEGETATION...THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE WINDS BECOME
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEVADA WILL
SHIFT EAST. UPPER LEVEL STRONG WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE NORTHWEST AFTER 29/20Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTH BY 29/16Z OVER THE AREA. MODERATE
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 29/01Z THEN WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT
BETWEEN 29/01-29/16Z AND MIXED WEAK OFFSHORE AND ONSHORE GRADIENT
AFTER 29/16Z. MARINE LAYER TOPS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WERE
APPROXIMATELY 2.9KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 2KFT
MONDAY MORNING. CAPPING INVERSION DID NOT EXIST OVER THE BIGHT THIS
MORNING AND MAY FORM BETWEEN 1-1.5KFT MONDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AND CAPPING INVERSION AT KLAX NONE.

KLAX...SCATTERED LIKELY BY 28/19Z. CHANCE CIGS 012 BETWEEN
29/10-29/17Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 AT TIMES THROUGH 28/21Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE OUTER WATERS IN THE
SOUTH HALF TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE
LOCALLY GENERATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. A SOUTH
SOUTHEAST SWELL ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY AND SUBSIDE TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 281624
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
923 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MAINLY OVER NEVADA WILL KEEP COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. GRADUAL WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED LATER
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS RATHER WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK ACROSS SLO/SBA
COUNTIES THIS MORNING (WITH A 2700 FOOT MARINE INVERSION)...AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION (DUE TO LACK
OF A MARINE INVERSION). WITH THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IN PLACE...THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS. EXPECT MOST OF THIS CLOUD
COVER TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...SHOULD BE A DAY OF BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH THE
MORNING CLOUD COVER AND RATHER LOW H5 HEIGHTS DUE TO THE UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL DATA DOES NOT INDICATE ANY RADICAL
DEPARTURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
OUT OF CALIFORNIA...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA. AS FOR CLOUD
COVER...MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANNOYING CHALLENGE
BUT IN GENERAL...THE STRATUS COVERAGE DURING THE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. DID ISSUE A ZONE UPDATE
EARLIER TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER AND ADD SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE SAN
GABRIEL AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS.

*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT A LARGE EAST PAC WILL MOVE INTO THE CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SIT ATOP THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MARNIE LAYER CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE EDDY CONTINUES TO SPIN. BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL RISE SOME MORE. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK VERY HOT AS OFFSHORE SFC FLOW SETS
UP UNDER THE BIG UPPER HIGH. VLY TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S
THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH RELIEF ACROSS THE COASTS WITH WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREES
READINGS EXPECTED. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RISE
AND SOME VLY/FOOTHILL AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. THE SANTA ANA
WINDS AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK TO STRONG BUT EVERYTHING WILL REQUIRE
CONSTANT MONITORING AS THIS POTENTIAL HEAT EVENT DEVELOPS.

.AVIATION...28/12Z.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AN INTERMITTENT CIG DECK ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND AT KPRB OVERNIGHT AND OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST AND IN ADJACENT VALLEYS.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

THE MARINE INVERSION AT LAX IS 1700 FEET DEEP WITH A TOP OF 2800
FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 16 DEGREES CELSIUS.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH NEAR THE NORTHERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA AS
WELL AS OVER THE OUTER WATERS IN THE SOUTH HALF TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE LOCALLY GENERATED SHORT PERIOD
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL ORIGINATING FROM
TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY AND
SUBSIDE TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ/30
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 281624
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
923 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MAINLY OVER NEVADA WILL KEEP COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. GRADUAL WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED LATER
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS RATHER WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK ACROSS SLO/SBA
COUNTIES THIS MORNING (WITH A 2700 FOOT MARINE INVERSION)...AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION (DUE TO LACK
OF A MARINE INVERSION). WITH THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IN PLACE...THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS. EXPECT MOST OF THIS CLOUD
COVER TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...SHOULD BE A DAY OF BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH THE
MORNING CLOUD COVER AND RATHER LOW H5 HEIGHTS DUE TO THE UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL DATA DOES NOT INDICATE ANY RADICAL
DEPARTURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
OUT OF CALIFORNIA...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA. AS FOR CLOUD
COVER...MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANNOYING CHALLENGE
BUT IN GENERAL...THE STRATUS COVERAGE DURING THE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. DID ISSUE A ZONE UPDATE
EARLIER TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER AND ADD SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE SAN
GABRIEL AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS.

*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT A LARGE EAST PAC WILL MOVE INTO THE CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SIT ATOP THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MARNIE LAYER CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE EDDY CONTINUES TO SPIN. BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL RISE SOME MORE. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK VERY HOT AS OFFSHORE SFC FLOW SETS
UP UNDER THE BIG UPPER HIGH. VLY TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S
THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH RELIEF ACROSS THE COASTS WITH WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREES
READINGS EXPECTED. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RISE
AND SOME VLY/FOOTHILL AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. THE SANTA ANA
WINDS AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK TO STRONG BUT EVERYTHING WILL REQUIRE
CONSTANT MONITORING AS THIS POTENTIAL HEAT EVENT DEVELOPS.

.AVIATION...28/12Z.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AN INTERMITTENT CIG DECK ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND AT KPRB OVERNIGHT AND OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST AND IN ADJACENT VALLEYS.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

THE MARINE INVERSION AT LAX IS 1700 FEET DEEP WITH A TOP OF 2800
FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 16 DEGREES CELSIUS.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH NEAR THE NORTHERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA AS
WELL AS OVER THE OUTER WATERS IN THE SOUTH HALF TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE LOCALLY GENERATED SHORT PERIOD
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL ORIGINATING FROM
TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY AND
SUBSIDE TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ/30
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 281533
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MAINLY OVER NEVADA WILL KEEP COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. GRADUAL WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED LATER
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS RATHER WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK ACROSS SLO/SBA
COUNTIES THIS MORNING (WITH A 2700 FOOT MARINE INVERSION)...AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION (DUE TO LACK
OF A MARINE INVERSION). WITH THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IN PLACE...THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS. EXPECT MOST OF THIS CLOUD
COVER TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...SHOULD BE A DAY OF BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH THE
MORNING CLOUD COVER AND RATHER LOW H5 HEIGHTS DUE TO THE UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL DATA DOES NOT INDICATE ANY RADICAL
DEPARTURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
OUT OF CALIFORNIA...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA. AS FOR CLOUD
COVER...MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANNOYING CHALLENGE
BUT IN GENERAL...THE STRATUS COVERAGE DURING THE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. DID ISSUE A ZONE UPDATE
EARLIER TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER AND ADD SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE SAN
GABRIEL AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS.

*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT A LARGE EAST PAC WILL MOVE INTO THE CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SIT ATOP THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MARNIE LAYER CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE EDDY CONTINUES TO SPIN. BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL RISE SOME MORE. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK VERY HOT AS OFFSHORE SFC FLOW SETS
UP UNDER THE BIG UPPER HIGH. VLY TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S
THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH RELIEF ACROSS THE COASTS WITH WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREES
READINGS EXPECTED. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RISE
AND SOME VLY/FOOTHILL AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. THE SANTA ANA
WINDS AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK TO STRONG BUT EVERYTHING WILL REQUIRE
CONSTANT MONITORING AS THIS POTENTIAL HEAT EVENT DEVELOPS.

.AVIATION...28/12Z.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AN INTERMITTENT CIG DECK ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND AT KPRB OVERNIGHT AND OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST AND IN ADJACENT VALLEYS.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

THE MARINE INVERSION AT LAX IS 1700 FEET DEEP WITH A TOP OF 2800
FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 16 DEGREES CELSIUS.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG WINDS IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
BY EARLY MONDAY THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN MID WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 281533
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MAINLY OVER NEVADA WILL KEEP COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. GRADUAL WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED LATER
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS RATHER WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK ACROSS SLO/SBA
COUNTIES THIS MORNING (WITH A 2700 FOOT MARINE INVERSION)...AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION (DUE TO LACK
OF A MARINE INVERSION). WITH THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IN PLACE...THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS. EXPECT MOST OF THIS CLOUD
COVER TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...SHOULD BE A DAY OF BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH THE
MORNING CLOUD COVER AND RATHER LOW H5 HEIGHTS DUE TO THE UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL DATA DOES NOT INDICATE ANY RADICAL
DEPARTURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
OUT OF CALIFORNIA...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA. AS FOR CLOUD
COVER...MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANNOYING CHALLENGE
BUT IN GENERAL...THE STRATUS COVERAGE DURING THE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. DID ISSUE A ZONE UPDATE
EARLIER TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER AND ADD SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE SAN
GABRIEL AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS.

*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT A LARGE EAST PAC WILL MOVE INTO THE CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SIT ATOP THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MARNIE LAYER CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE EDDY CONTINUES TO SPIN. BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL RISE SOME MORE. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK VERY HOT AS OFFSHORE SFC FLOW SETS
UP UNDER THE BIG UPPER HIGH. VLY TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S
THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH RELIEF ACROSS THE COASTS WITH WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREES
READINGS EXPECTED. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RISE
AND SOME VLY/FOOTHILL AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. THE SANTA ANA
WINDS AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK TO STRONG BUT EVERYTHING WILL REQUIRE
CONSTANT MONITORING AS THIS POTENTIAL HEAT EVENT DEVELOPS.

.AVIATION...28/12Z.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AN INTERMITTENT CIG DECK ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND AT KPRB OVERNIGHT AND OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST AND IN ADJACENT VALLEYS.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

THE MARINE INVERSION AT LAX IS 1700 FEET DEEP WITH A TOP OF 2800
FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 16 DEGREES CELSIUS.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG WINDS IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
BY EARLY MONDAY THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN MID WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 281149
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MAINLY OVER NEVADA WILL KEEP COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. GRADUAL WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED LATER
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
HUMONGOUS 563 DM UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NEVADA WILL DOMINATE THE
SOUTHWEST WX TODAY. SOCAL WILL NOT SEE MUCH EXCITING WEATHER THE
COOL AIR ASSOC WITH THE LOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL AGAIN.
THE COOL AIR IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY PATCHY MARINE LAYER
STRATUS THIS MORNING.

THERE WILL BE A WEAK NON ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AS UPPER
SUPPORT WANES. AN EDDY IS FCST TO SPIN UP AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE.

THE LOW WILL SWEEP EASTWARD MONDAY AND HGTS WILL RISE BEHIND IT.
LOOK FOR A NICE WARM UP ACROSS ALL AREAS ESP THE VLYS AND MTNS.

BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A SUNDOWNER MOVES IN ON THE FRONT END
OF AN EAST PAC RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL LIKELY
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. NO EDDY AND STRONGER NORTH FLOW WILL CONFINE
THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO THE LA CST AND THE CENTRAL COAST.

THKNS CONTINUES TO RISE AND MAX TEMPS WILL BUMP UP SEVERAL MORE
DEGREES EVERYWHERE BUT ESP AWAY FROM THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT A LARGE EAST PAC WILL MOVE INTO THE CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SIT ATOP THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MARNIE LAYER CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE EDDY CONTINUES TO SPIN. BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL RISE SOME MORE. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK VERY HOT AS OFFSHORE SFC FLOW SETS
UP UNDER THE BIG UPPER HIGH. VLY TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S
THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH RELIEF ACROSS THE COASTS WITH WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREES
READINGS EXPECTED. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RISE
AND SOME VLY/FOOTHILL AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. THE SANTA ANA
WINDS AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK TO STRONG BUT EVERYTHING WILL REQUIRE
CONSTANT MONITORING AS THIS POTENTIAL HEAT EVENT DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AN INTERMITTENT CIG DECK ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND AT KPRB OVERNIGHT AND OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST AND IN ADJACENT VALLEYS.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

THE MARINE INVERSION AT LAX IS 1700 FEET DEEP WITH A TOP OF 2800
FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 16 DEGREES CELSIUS.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG WINDS IN THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY EARLY
MONDAY THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN MID WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 281149
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MAINLY OVER NEVADA WILL KEEP COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. GRADUAL WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED LATER
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
HUMONGOUS 563 DM UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NEVADA WILL DOMINATE THE
SOUTHWEST WX TODAY. SOCAL WILL NOT SEE MUCH EXCITING WEATHER THE
COOL AIR ASSOC WITH THE LOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL AGAIN.
THE COOL AIR IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY PATCHY MARINE LAYER
STRATUS THIS MORNING.

THERE WILL BE A WEAK NON ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AS UPPER
SUPPORT WANES. AN EDDY IS FCST TO SPIN UP AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE.

THE LOW WILL SWEEP EASTWARD MONDAY AND HGTS WILL RISE BEHIND IT.
LOOK FOR A NICE WARM UP ACROSS ALL AREAS ESP THE VLYS AND MTNS.

BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A SUNDOWNER MOVES IN ON THE FRONT END
OF AN EAST PAC RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL LIKELY
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. NO EDDY AND STRONGER NORTH FLOW WILL CONFINE
THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO THE LA CST AND THE CENTRAL COAST.

THKNS CONTINUES TO RISE AND MAX TEMPS WILL BUMP UP SEVERAL MORE
DEGREES EVERYWHERE BUT ESP AWAY FROM THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT A LARGE EAST PAC WILL MOVE INTO THE CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SIT ATOP THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MARNIE LAYER CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE EDDY CONTINUES TO SPIN. BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL RISE SOME MORE. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK VERY HOT AS OFFSHORE SFC FLOW SETS
UP UNDER THE BIG UPPER HIGH. VLY TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S
THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH RELIEF ACROSS THE COASTS WITH WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREES
READINGS EXPECTED. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RISE
AND SOME VLY/FOOTHILL AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. THE SANTA ANA
WINDS AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK TO STRONG BUT EVERYTHING WILL REQUIRE
CONSTANT MONITORING AS THIS POTENTIAL HEAT EVENT DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AN INTERMITTENT CIG DECK ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND AT KPRB OVERNIGHT AND OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST AND IN ADJACENT VALLEYS.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

THE MARINE INVERSION AT LAX IS 1700 FEET DEEP WITH A TOP OF 2800
FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 16 DEGREES CELSIUS.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG WINDS IN THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY EARLY
MONDAY THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN MID WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 281054
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MAINLY OVER NEVADA WILL KEEP COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. GRADUAL WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED LATER
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
HUMONGOUS 563 DM UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NEVADA WILL DOMINATE THE
SOUTHWEST WX TODAY. SOCAL WILL NOT SEE MUCH EXCITING WEATHER THE
COOL AIR ASSOC WITH THE LOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL AGAIN.
THE COOL AIR IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY PATCHY MARINE LAYER
STRATUS THIS MORNING.

THERE WILL BE A WEAK NON ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AS UPPER
SUPPORT WANES. AN EDDY IS FCST TO SPIN UP AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE.

THE LOW WILL SWEEP EASTWARD MONDAY AND HGTS WILL RISE BEHIND IT.
LOOK FOR A NICE WARM UP ACROSS ALL AREAS ESP THE VLYS AND MTNS.

BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A SUNDOWNER MOVES IN ON THE FRONT END
OF AN EAST PAC RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL LIKELY
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. NO EDDY AND STRONGER NORTH FLOW WILL CONFINE
THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO THE LA CST AND THE CENTRAL COAST.

THKNS CONTINUES TO RISE AND MAX TEMPS WILL BUMP UP SEVERAL MORE
DEGREES EVERYWHERE BUT ESP AWAY FROM THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT A LARGE EAST PAC WILL MOVE INTO THE CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SIT ATOP THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MARNIE LAYER CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE EDDY CONTINUES TO SPIN. BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL RISE SOME MORE. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK VERY HOT AS OFFSHORE SFC FLOW SETS
UP UNDER THE BIG UPPER HIGH. VLY TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S
THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH RELIEF ACROSS THE COASTS WITH WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREES
READINGS EXPECTED. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RISE
AND SOME VLY/FOOTHILL AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. THE SANTA ANA
WINDS AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK TO STRONG BUT EVERYTHING WILL REQUIRE
CONSTANT MONITORING AS THIS POTENTIAL HEAT EVENT DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/06Z.

THE MARINE INVERSION IS 1100 FEET DEEP WITH A TOP OF 1750 FEET AND A
TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CIG DECK ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND AT KPRB OVERNIGHT BUT ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
COAST.  POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS EVENING NEAR KSBA.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED MORNING CLOUDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG WINDS IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
BY EARLY MONDAY THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN MID WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 281054
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MAINLY OVER NEVADA WILL KEEP COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. GRADUAL WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED LATER
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
HUMONGOUS 563 DM UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NEVADA WILL DOMINATE THE
SOUTHWEST WX TODAY. SOCAL WILL NOT SEE MUCH EXCITING WEATHER THE
COOL AIR ASSOC WITH THE LOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL AGAIN.
THE COOL AIR IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY PATCHY MARINE LAYER
STRATUS THIS MORNING.

THERE WILL BE A WEAK NON ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AS UPPER
SUPPORT WANES. AN EDDY IS FCST TO SPIN UP AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE.

THE LOW WILL SWEEP EASTWARD MONDAY AND HGTS WILL RISE BEHIND IT.
LOOK FOR A NICE WARM UP ACROSS ALL AREAS ESP THE VLYS AND MTNS.

BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A SUNDOWNER MOVES IN ON THE FRONT END
OF AN EAST PAC RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL LIKELY
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. NO EDDY AND STRONGER NORTH FLOW WILL CONFINE
THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO THE LA CST AND THE CENTRAL COAST.

THKNS CONTINUES TO RISE AND MAX TEMPS WILL BUMP UP SEVERAL MORE
DEGREES EVERYWHERE BUT ESP AWAY FROM THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT A LARGE EAST PAC WILL MOVE INTO THE CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SIT ATOP THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MARNIE LAYER CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE EDDY CONTINUES TO SPIN. BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL RISE SOME MORE. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK VERY HOT AS OFFSHORE SFC FLOW SETS
UP UNDER THE BIG UPPER HIGH. VLY TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S
THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH RELIEF ACROSS THE COASTS WITH WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREES
READINGS EXPECTED. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RISE
AND SOME VLY/FOOTHILL AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. THE SANTA ANA
WINDS AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK TO STRONG BUT EVERYTHING WILL REQUIRE
CONSTANT MONITORING AS THIS POTENTIAL HEAT EVENT DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/06Z.

THE MARINE INVERSION IS 1100 FEET DEEP WITH A TOP OF 1750 FEET AND A
TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CIG DECK ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND AT KPRB OVERNIGHT BUT ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
COAST.  POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS EVENING NEAR KSBA.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED MORNING CLOUDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG WINDS IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
BY EARLY MONDAY THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN MID WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 280601
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MAINLY OVER NEVADA WILL KEEP COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. GRADUAL WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED LATER
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT A TASTE OF
FALL WEATHER TO THE SOUTHLAND TODAY...WITH COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING BROUGHT SOME
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS...BUT THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHEAST
SLO COUNTY THIS EVENING. WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE
SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. IN EVENING UPDATE...WILL CANCEL WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.

LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
ON KEEPING CLOSED LOW NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME CYCLONIC
FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SUNDAY. A REPEAT
PERFORMANCE OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY LOS ANGELES COUNTY. A MORE
SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO FORM NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
TONIGHT AS THE MARINE INVERSION BEGINS TO REFORM UP THERE. LOOK FOR
SIMILAR COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SUNDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SOME OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD HAVE SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A THUNDERSTORM THREAT AT THIS TIME.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN MONDAY WITH ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES OF
WARMING MOST INLAND AREAS AND 2-4 FOR THE COAST. SIMILAR TRENDS
TUESDAY BRINGING MOST AREAS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. A STRONGER LOW LVL
INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW A MORE SOLID MARINE LYR TO DEVELOP S OF PT
CONCEPTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE
RIDGE NEXT WEEK, FAVORING THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION FROM
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SO PROBABLY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS WED AS A
WEAK TROF PASSES NORTH AND EAST, BUT THEN TURNING MUCH WARMER
THU-SAT, ESPECIALLY COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. MODELS STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR SANTA ANA WINDS AS THE TROF PASSING TO
THE NORTH IS WEAK AND THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO COLD AIR DROPPING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND IT. SO FOR NOW MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN TEMPS STARTING THU, CLIMBING UP TO NEAR 100
FOR VALLEYS, THEN AROUND 105 (OR POSSIBLY A TAD HIGHER) BY NEXT SAT
WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. WILL BE A HOT DAY AT DODGER
STADIUM FOR GAME 2 OF THE NLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z.

THE MARINE INVERSION IS 1100 FEET DEEP WITH A TOP OF 1750 FEET AND A
TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CIG DECK ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND AT KPRB OVERNIGHT BUT ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
COAST.  POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS EVENING NEAR KSBA.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED MORNING CLOUDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/800 PM...
HI CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT FOR ZONES 645...650...655 AND 670. GENERALLY HI
CONFIDENCE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
AFTERNOON ACROSS ZONES 673 AND 676...ALTHO THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE THE WINDS COULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS SUN MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY GENERATED
RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...GOMBERG/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 280601
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MAINLY OVER NEVADA WILL KEEP COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. GRADUAL WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED LATER
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT A TASTE OF
FALL WEATHER TO THE SOUTHLAND TODAY...WITH COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING BROUGHT SOME
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS...BUT THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHEAST
SLO COUNTY THIS EVENING. WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE
SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. IN EVENING UPDATE...WILL CANCEL WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.

LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
ON KEEPING CLOSED LOW NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME CYCLONIC
FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SUNDAY. A REPEAT
PERFORMANCE OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY LOS ANGELES COUNTY. A MORE
SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO FORM NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
TONIGHT AS THE MARINE INVERSION BEGINS TO REFORM UP THERE. LOOK FOR
SIMILAR COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SUNDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SOME OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD HAVE SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A THUNDERSTORM THREAT AT THIS TIME.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN MONDAY WITH ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES OF
WARMING MOST INLAND AREAS AND 2-4 FOR THE COAST. SIMILAR TRENDS
TUESDAY BRINGING MOST AREAS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. A STRONGER LOW LVL
INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW A MORE SOLID MARINE LYR TO DEVELOP S OF PT
CONCEPTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE
RIDGE NEXT WEEK, FAVORING THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION FROM
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SO PROBABLY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS WED AS A
WEAK TROF PASSES NORTH AND EAST, BUT THEN TURNING MUCH WARMER
THU-SAT, ESPECIALLY COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. MODELS STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR SANTA ANA WINDS AS THE TROF PASSING TO
THE NORTH IS WEAK AND THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO COLD AIR DROPPING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND IT. SO FOR NOW MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN TEMPS STARTING THU, CLIMBING UP TO NEAR 100
FOR VALLEYS, THEN AROUND 105 (OR POSSIBLY A TAD HIGHER) BY NEXT SAT
WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. WILL BE A HOT DAY AT DODGER
STADIUM FOR GAME 2 OF THE NLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z.

THE MARINE INVERSION IS 1100 FEET DEEP WITH A TOP OF 1750 FEET AND A
TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CIG DECK ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND AT KPRB OVERNIGHT BUT ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
COAST.  POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS EVENING NEAR KSBA.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED MORNING CLOUDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/800 PM...
HI CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT FOR ZONES 645...650...655 AND 670. GENERALLY HI
CONFIDENCE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
AFTERNOON ACROSS ZONES 673 AND 676...ALTHO THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE THE WINDS COULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS SUN MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY GENERATED
RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...GOMBERG/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 280303
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MAINLY OVER NEVADA WILL KEEP COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. GRADUAL WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED LATER
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT A TASTE OF
FALL WEATHER TO THE SOUTHLAND TODAY...WITH COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING BROUGHT SOME INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS...BUT THE
ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHEAST SLO COUNTY THIS EVENING.
WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH
COAST WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. IN EVENING
UPDATE...WILL CANCEL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.

LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ON
KEEPING CLOSED LOW NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME CYCLONIC FLOW AND
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SUNDAY. A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY LOS ANGELES COUNTY. A MORE SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK EXPECTED
TO FORM NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AS THE MARINE INVERSION BEGINS TO
REFORM UP THERE. LOOK FOR SIMILAR COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SOME OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD HAVE SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A THUNDERSTORM THREAT AT THIS TIME.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN MONDAY WITH ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES OF
WARMING MOST INLAND AREAS AND 2-4 FOR THE COAST. SIMILAR TRENDS
TUESDAY BRINGING MOST AREAS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. A STRONGER LOW LVL
INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW A MORE SOLID MARINE LYR TO DEVELOP S OF PT
CONCEPTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE
RIDGE NEXT WEEK, FAVORING THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION FROM
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SO PROBABLY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS WED AS A
WEAK TROF PASSES NORTH AND EAST, BUT THEN TURNING MUCH WARMER
THU-SAT, ESPECIALLY COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. MODELS STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR SANTA ANA WINDS AS THE TROF PASSING TO
THE NORTH IS WEAK AND THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO COLD AIR DROPPING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND IT. SO FOR NOW MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN TEMPS STARTING THU, CLIMBING UP TO NEAR 100
FOR VALLEYS, THEN AROUND 105 (OR POSSIBLY A TAD HIGHER) BY NEXT SAT
WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. WILL BE A HOT DAY AT DODGER
STADIUM FOR GAME 2 OF THE NLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...27/2330Z.
WEAK INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS LOS ANGELES BASIN. CONSIDERABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. DEEP MOIST LAYER OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY GENERATE SCT-BKN CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GREATEST PROBABILITY OF CIGS AT
KLAX...KLGB...KBUR...AND KVNY. LLWS WITH MDT UDDFS LIKELY THIS EVENING
AT KSBA.

KLAX...SCT-BKN015-025 CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF
BKN020-030 CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...27/800 PM...

HI CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT FOR ZONES 645...650...655 AND 670. GENERALLY HI
CONFIDENCE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
AFTERNOON ACROSS ZONES 673 AND 676...ALTHO THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE THE WINDS COULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS SUN MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY GENERATED
RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 280303
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MAINLY OVER NEVADA WILL KEEP COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. GRADUAL WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED LATER
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT A TASTE OF
FALL WEATHER TO THE SOUTHLAND TODAY...WITH COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING BROUGHT SOME INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS...BUT THE
ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHEAST SLO COUNTY THIS EVENING.
WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH
COAST WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. IN EVENING
UPDATE...WILL CANCEL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.

LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ON
KEEPING CLOSED LOW NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME CYCLONIC FLOW AND
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SUNDAY. A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY LOS ANGELES COUNTY. A MORE SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK EXPECTED
TO FORM NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AS THE MARINE INVERSION BEGINS TO
REFORM UP THERE. LOOK FOR SIMILAR COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SOME OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD HAVE SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A THUNDERSTORM THREAT AT THIS TIME.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN MONDAY WITH ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES OF
WARMING MOST INLAND AREAS AND 2-4 FOR THE COAST. SIMILAR TRENDS
TUESDAY BRINGING MOST AREAS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. A STRONGER LOW LVL
INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW A MORE SOLID MARINE LYR TO DEVELOP S OF PT
CONCEPTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE
RIDGE NEXT WEEK, FAVORING THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION FROM
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SO PROBABLY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS WED AS A
WEAK TROF PASSES NORTH AND EAST, BUT THEN TURNING MUCH WARMER
THU-SAT, ESPECIALLY COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. MODELS STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR SANTA ANA WINDS AS THE TROF PASSING TO
THE NORTH IS WEAK AND THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO COLD AIR DROPPING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND IT. SO FOR NOW MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN TEMPS STARTING THU, CLIMBING UP TO NEAR 100
FOR VALLEYS, THEN AROUND 105 (OR POSSIBLY A TAD HIGHER) BY NEXT SAT
WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. WILL BE A HOT DAY AT DODGER
STADIUM FOR GAME 2 OF THE NLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...27/2330Z.
WEAK INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS LOS ANGELES BASIN. CONSIDERABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. DEEP MOIST LAYER OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY GENERATE SCT-BKN CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GREATEST PROBABILITY OF CIGS AT
KLAX...KLGB...KBUR...AND KVNY. LLWS WITH MDT UDDFS LIKELY THIS EVENING
AT KSBA.

KLAX...SCT-BKN015-025 CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF
BKN020-030 CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...27/800 PM...

HI CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT FOR ZONES 645...650...655 AND 670. GENERALLY HI
CONFIDENCE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
AFTERNOON ACROSS ZONES 673 AND 676...ALTHO THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE THE WINDS COULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS SUN MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY GENERATED
RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 272345
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. GRADUAL WARMING IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST. FURTHER WARMING IS POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LOOKS LIKE UPPER LOW HAS BOTTOMED OUT OVER
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND HAS TURNED EAST INTO THE SRN SIERRA
NEVADA MTNS. WEATHER PRETTY MUCH AS MODELS DEPICTED THIS MORNING
WITH (AT LEAST SO FAR) MINIMAL VERTICAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND DRYING
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW. MAY END UP PULLING TSTORM CHANCES
FROM THE ERN SAN GABRIELS BUT WILL GIVE THAT A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

ANOTHER WEAK INVERSION NIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION SO
PROBABLY NOTHING REAL SOLID IN TERMS OF MARINE LYR CLOUDS. SCT-BKN
AT BEST BUT LIKELY PRETTY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
ONCE THE AFTERNOON SC FADES. FURTHER NORTH THOUGH MODELS SHOW A MUCH
STRONGER INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 2000` AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE FAIRLY SOLID LOW CLOUD MASS OFFSHORE OF MONTEREY COUNTY.
SO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD N OF PT CONCEPTION
TONIGHT AND SPREADING INLAND QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS IN SRN SBA COUNTY THIS
EVENING, THOUGH PERHAPS A FEW MPH LESS THAN LAST NIGHT.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS MOST AREAS SUNDAY WITH THE LOW STILL AROUND
AND THE AIR MASS FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PROBABLY GET
SOME MORE STRATOCU DEVELOPING AS WE GET SOME SURFACE HEATING BY LATE
MORNING. WEAKER ONSHORE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MEANS LESS WIND TOMORROW.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN MONDAY WITH ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES OF
WARMING MOST INLAND AREAS AND 2-4 FOR THE COAST. SIMILAR TRENDS
TUESDAY BRINGING MOST AREAS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. A STRONGER LOW LVL
INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW A MORE SOLID MARINE LYR TO DEVELOP S OF PT
CONCEPTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE
RIDGE NEXT WEEK, FAVORING THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION FROM
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SO PROBABLY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS WED AS A
WEAK TROF PASSES NORTH AND EAST, BUT THEN TURNING MUCH WARMER
THU-SAT, ESPECIALLY COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. MODELS STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR SANTA ANA WINDS AS THE TROF PASSING TO
THE NORTH IS WEAK AND THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO COLD AIR DROPPING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND IT. SO FOR NOW MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN TEMPS STARTING THU, CLIMBING UP TO NEAR 100
FOR VALLEYS, THEN AROUND 105 (OR POSSIBLY A TAD HIGHER) BY NEXT SAT
WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. WILL BE A HOT DAY AT DODGER
STADIUM FOR GAME 2 OF THE NLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...27/2330Z.
WEAK INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS LOS ANGELES BASIN. CONSIDERABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. DEEP MOIST LAYER OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY GENERATE SCT-BKN CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GREATEST PROBABILITY OF CIGS AT
KLAX...KLGB...KBUR...AND KVNY. LLWS WITH MDT UDDFS LIKELY THIS EVENING
AT KSBA.

KLAX...SCT-BKN015-025 CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF
BKN020-030 CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...27/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AND
ELSEWHERE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN NORTHERN SANTA MONICA BAY AND OUT TO
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND END AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY GENERATED
RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG/30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 272345
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. GRADUAL WARMING IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST. FURTHER WARMING IS POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LOOKS LIKE UPPER LOW HAS BOTTOMED OUT OVER
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND HAS TURNED EAST INTO THE SRN SIERRA
NEVADA MTNS. WEATHER PRETTY MUCH AS MODELS DEPICTED THIS MORNING
WITH (AT LEAST SO FAR) MINIMAL VERTICAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND DRYING
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW. MAY END UP PULLING TSTORM CHANCES
FROM THE ERN SAN GABRIELS BUT WILL GIVE THAT A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

ANOTHER WEAK INVERSION NIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION SO
PROBABLY NOTHING REAL SOLID IN TERMS OF MARINE LYR CLOUDS. SCT-BKN
AT BEST BUT LIKELY PRETTY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
ONCE THE AFTERNOON SC FADES. FURTHER NORTH THOUGH MODELS SHOW A MUCH
STRONGER INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 2000` AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE FAIRLY SOLID LOW CLOUD MASS OFFSHORE OF MONTEREY COUNTY.
SO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD N OF PT CONCEPTION
TONIGHT AND SPREADING INLAND QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS IN SRN SBA COUNTY THIS
EVENING, THOUGH PERHAPS A FEW MPH LESS THAN LAST NIGHT.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS MOST AREAS SUNDAY WITH THE LOW STILL AROUND
AND THE AIR MASS FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PROBABLY GET
SOME MORE STRATOCU DEVELOPING AS WE GET SOME SURFACE HEATING BY LATE
MORNING. WEAKER ONSHORE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MEANS LESS WIND TOMORROW.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN MONDAY WITH ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES OF
WARMING MOST INLAND AREAS AND 2-4 FOR THE COAST. SIMILAR TRENDS
TUESDAY BRINGING MOST AREAS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. A STRONGER LOW LVL
INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW A MORE SOLID MARINE LYR TO DEVELOP S OF PT
CONCEPTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE
RIDGE NEXT WEEK, FAVORING THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION FROM
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SO PROBABLY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS WED AS A
WEAK TROF PASSES NORTH AND EAST, BUT THEN TURNING MUCH WARMER
THU-SAT, ESPECIALLY COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. MODELS STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR SANTA ANA WINDS AS THE TROF PASSING TO
THE NORTH IS WEAK AND THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO COLD AIR DROPPING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND IT. SO FOR NOW MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN TEMPS STARTING THU, CLIMBING UP TO NEAR 100
FOR VALLEYS, THEN AROUND 105 (OR POSSIBLY A TAD HIGHER) BY NEXT SAT
WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. WILL BE A HOT DAY AT DODGER
STADIUM FOR GAME 2 OF THE NLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...27/2330Z.
WEAK INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS LOS ANGELES BASIN. CONSIDERABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. DEEP MOIST LAYER OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY GENERATE SCT-BKN CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GREATEST PROBABILITY OF CIGS AT
KLAX...KLGB...KBUR...AND KVNY. LLWS WITH MDT UDDFS LIKELY THIS EVENING
AT KSBA.

KLAX...SCT-BKN015-025 CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF
BKN020-030 CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...27/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AND
ELSEWHERE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN NORTHERN SANTA MONICA BAY AND OUT TO
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND END AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY GENERATED
RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG/30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 272036
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
135 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. GRADUAL WARMING IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST. FURTHER WARMING IS POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LOOKS LIKE UPPER LOW HAS BOTTOMED OUT OVER
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND HAS TURNED EAST INTO THE SRN SIERRA
NEVADA MTNS. WEATHER PRETTY MUCH AS MODELS DEPICTED THIS MORNING
WITH (AT LEAST SO FAR) MINIMAL VERTICAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND DRYING
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW. MAY END UP PULLING TSTORM CHANCES
FROM THE ERN SAN GABRIELS BUT WILL GIVE THAT A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

ANOTHER WEAK INVERSION NIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION SO
PROBABLY NOTHING REAL SOLID IN TERMS OF MARINE LYR CLOUDS. SCT-BKN
AT BEST BUT LIKELY PRETTY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
ONCE THE AFTERNOON SC FADES. FURTHER NORTH THOUGH MODELS SHOW A MUCH
STRONGER INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 2000` AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE FAIRLY SOLID LOW CLOUD MASS OFFSHORE OF MONTEREY COUNTY.
SO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD N OF PT CONCEPTION
TONIGHT AND SPREADING INLAND QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS IN SRN SBA COUNTY THIS
EVENING, THOUGH PERHAPS A FEW MPH LESS THAN LAST NIGHT.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS MOST AREAS SUNDAY WITH THE LOW STILL AROUND
AND THE AIR MASS FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PROBABLY GET
SOME MORE STRATOCU DEVELOPING AS WE GET SOME SURFACE HEATING BY LATE
MORNING. WEAKER ONSHORE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MEANS LESS WIND TOMORROW.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN MONDAY WITH ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES OF
WARMING MOST INLAND AREAS AND 2-4 FOR THE COAST. SIMILAR TRENDS
TUESDAY BRINGING MOST AREAS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. A STRONGER LOW LVL
INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW A MORE SOLID MARINE LYR TO DEVELOP S OF PT
CONCEPTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE
RIDGE NEXT WEEK, FAVORING THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION FROM
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SO PROBABLY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS WED AS A
WEAK TROF PASSES NORTH AND EAST, BUT THEN TURNING MUCH WARMER
THU-SAT, ESPECIALLY COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. MODELS STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR SANTA ANA WINDS AS THE TROF PASSING TO
THE NORTH IS WEAK AND THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO COLD AIR DROPPING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND IT. SO FOR NOW MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN TEMPS STARTING THU, CLIMBING UP TO NEAR 100
FOR VALLEYS, THEN AROUND 105 (OR POSSIBLY A TAD HIGHER) BY NEXT SAT
WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. WILL BE A HOT DAY AT DODGER
STADIUM FOR GAME 2 OF THE NLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL SHIFT EAST. UPPER LEVEL STRONG WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AND MID
LEVEL MODERATE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION IN LOS
ANGELES COUNTY BETWEEN 27/21-28/03Z WITH TOPS APPROXIMATELY 35KFT
AND MOVEMENT WEST AT 25KT. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH 28/01Z AND AFTER 28/20Z OTHERWISE A MIXED WEAK
ONSHORE AND WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED.

MARINE LAYER AND CAPPING INVERSION AT KLAX NONE.

KLAX...SCATTERED LIKELY BY 27/19Z. CHANCE CIGS 015 BETWEEN
28/10-28/15Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 021 BETWEEN 28/15-28/18Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 028 AT TIMES THROUGH 27/21Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...27/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AND
ELSEWHERE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN NORTHERN SANTA MONICA BAY AND OUT TO
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND END AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY GENERATED
RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271736
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1035 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.
GRADUAL WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS POSSIBLE LATER
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THIS MORNING GENERATING PRETTY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLING PRETTY MUCH FROM TOP TO
BOTTOM, THOUGH A BIT MORE SO ALOFT AND THAT HAS DESTABILIZED THE AIR
MASS SOMEWHAT. UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT A BIT MORE SOUTH
THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN TURN EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS TURN TO
THE EAST OCCURS AN AREA OF PVA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ERN LA
COUNTY MTNS AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE THE EXTRA LIFT NEEDED TO GENERATE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. K INDICES ARE HIGHEST THERE AS WELL
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE THERE DOESN`T
APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OR LIFT TO GENERATE ANYTHING. THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE TRANSVERSE RANGE WON`T HELP EITHER.
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS WITH SMALL CHANCES OVER THE ERN SAN
GABRIELS AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

MOST AREAS TODAY SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT HIGHS WILL DROP
AN ADDITIONAL 2-5 DEGREES FOR COAST AND VALLEYS AND 5-10 FOR THE
INTERIOR. ANOTHER SUNDOWNER EXPECTED THIS EVENING THOUGH LIKELY
ABOUT 5 MPH WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHT.

INVERSION WAS FAR TOO WEAK THIS MORNING TO SUPPORT MORE THAN JUST
SOME PATCHY MARINE LYR CLOUDS AND IT`S LOOKING LIKE SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH THE SAME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE
THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE AIR MASS BELOW 500 MB SO MAY HAVE TO TRIM
BACK ON LOW CLOUDS AGAIN FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE ON SUNDAY AS IT REMAINS OVER NEVADA.
A COUPLE OF VORT LOBES ROTATE AROUND THE LOW ONCE AGAIN...BUT MAINLY
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR AREAS. WILL LET FUTURE
SHIFTS LOOK CLOSER IF THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
INLAND AREAS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR MAYBE A DEGREE
WARMER FOR INTERIOR AREAS.

BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL IN AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LEAVING MOST OF CALIFORNIA UNDER BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY MONDAY TO MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THERE WILL BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
A VERY WARM AND DRY LONG TERM FORECAST. BROAD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY WITH WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS
SETTING UP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING ON TUESDAY
WITH WARMEST VALLEYS REACHING THE LOWER 90S. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING EVENT IS EXPECTED WED-FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE EASTERN
PAC WILL BUILD AS IT NUDGES EASTWARD OVER THE STATE. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW UNDER THE DOME OF HIGHER PRESSURE
LIMITING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DENSE FOG TO COASTAL AREAS. IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO STAY CONSISTENT...A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE COULD
BE IN STORE FROM WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE IS IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO ADD SOME UPPER LEVEL OFFSHORE SUPPORT WITH
STRONGER OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS BY THURSDAY. AT THE LEAST...HOT
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE LA/VTU VALLEYS WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR
COASTAL AREAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER DUE TO
THE HIGH TEMPS...GUSTY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE DRAW
CLOSER WITH MORE DETAILS.


&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL SHIFT EAST. UPPER LEVEL STRONG WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AND MID
LEVEL MODERATE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION IN LOS
ANGELES COUNTY BETWEEN 27/21-28/03Z WITH TOPS APPROXIMATELY 35KFT
AND MOVEMENT WEST AT 25KT. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH 28/01Z AND AFTER 28/20Z OTHERWISE A MIXED WEAK
ONSHORE AND WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED.

MARINE LAYER AND CAPPING INVERSION AT KLAX NONE.

KLAX...SCATTERED LIKELY BY 27/19Z. CHANCE CIGS 015 BETWEEN
28/10-28/15Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 021 BETWEEN 28/15-28/18Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 028 AT TIMES THROUGH 27/21Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AND
ELSEWHERE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN NORTHERN SANTA MONICA BAY AND OUT TO
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND END AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY GENERATED
RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 271736
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1035 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.
GRADUAL WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS POSSIBLE LATER
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THIS MORNING GENERATING PRETTY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLING PRETTY MUCH FROM TOP TO
BOTTOM, THOUGH A BIT MORE SO ALOFT AND THAT HAS DESTABILIZED THE AIR
MASS SOMEWHAT. UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT A BIT MORE SOUTH
THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN TURN EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS TURN TO
THE EAST OCCURS AN AREA OF PVA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ERN LA
COUNTY MTNS AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE THE EXTRA LIFT NEEDED TO GENERATE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. K INDICES ARE HIGHEST THERE AS WELL
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE THERE DOESN`T
APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OR LIFT TO GENERATE ANYTHING. THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE TRANSVERSE RANGE WON`T HELP EITHER.
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS WITH SMALL CHANCES OVER THE ERN SAN
GABRIELS AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

MOST AREAS TODAY SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT HIGHS WILL DROP
AN ADDITIONAL 2-5 DEGREES FOR COAST AND VALLEYS AND 5-10 FOR THE
INTERIOR. ANOTHER SUNDOWNER EXPECTED THIS EVENING THOUGH LIKELY
ABOUT 5 MPH WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHT.

INVERSION WAS FAR TOO WEAK THIS MORNING TO SUPPORT MORE THAN JUST
SOME PATCHY MARINE LYR CLOUDS AND IT`S LOOKING LIKE SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH THE SAME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE
THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE AIR MASS BELOW 500 MB SO MAY HAVE TO TRIM
BACK ON LOW CLOUDS AGAIN FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE ON SUNDAY AS IT REMAINS OVER NEVADA.
A COUPLE OF VORT LOBES ROTATE AROUND THE LOW ONCE AGAIN...BUT MAINLY
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR AREAS. WILL LET FUTURE
SHIFTS LOOK CLOSER IF THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
INLAND AREAS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR MAYBE A DEGREE
WARMER FOR INTERIOR AREAS.

BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL IN AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LEAVING MOST OF CALIFORNIA UNDER BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY MONDAY TO MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THERE WILL BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
A VERY WARM AND DRY LONG TERM FORECAST. BROAD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY WITH WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS
SETTING UP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING ON TUESDAY
WITH WARMEST VALLEYS REACHING THE LOWER 90S. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING EVENT IS EXPECTED WED-FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE EASTERN
PAC WILL BUILD AS IT NUDGES EASTWARD OVER THE STATE. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW UNDER THE DOME OF HIGHER PRESSURE
LIMITING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DENSE FOG TO COASTAL AREAS. IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO STAY CONSISTENT...A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE COULD
BE IN STORE FROM WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE IS IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO ADD SOME UPPER LEVEL OFFSHORE SUPPORT WITH
STRONGER OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS BY THURSDAY. AT THE LEAST...HOT
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE LA/VTU VALLEYS WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR
COASTAL AREAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER DUE TO
THE HIGH TEMPS...GUSTY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE DRAW
CLOSER WITH MORE DETAILS.


&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL SHIFT EAST. UPPER LEVEL STRONG WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AND MID
LEVEL MODERATE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION IN LOS
ANGELES COUNTY BETWEEN 27/21-28/03Z WITH TOPS APPROXIMATELY 35KFT
AND MOVEMENT WEST AT 25KT. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH 28/01Z AND AFTER 28/20Z OTHERWISE A MIXED WEAK
ONSHORE AND WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED.

MARINE LAYER AND CAPPING INVERSION AT KLAX NONE.

KLAX...SCATTERED LIKELY BY 27/19Z. CHANCE CIGS 015 BETWEEN
28/10-28/15Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 021 BETWEEN 28/15-28/18Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 028 AT TIMES THROUGH 27/21Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AND
ELSEWHERE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN NORTHERN SANTA MONICA BAY AND OUT TO
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND END AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY GENERATED
RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 271621
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.
GRADUAL WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS POSSIBLE LATER
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THIS MORNING GENERATING PRETTY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLING PRETTY MUCH FROM TOP TO
BOTTOM, THOUGH A BIT MORE SO ALOFT AND THAT HAS DESTABILIZED THE AIR
MASS SOMEWHAT. UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT A BIT MORE SOUTH
THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN TURN EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS TURN TO
THE EAST OCCURS AN AREA OF PVA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ERN LA
COUNTY MTNS AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE THE EXTRA LIFT NEEDED TO GENERATE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. K INDICES ARE HIGHEST THERE AS WELL
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE THERE DOESN`T
APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OR LIFT TO GENERATE ANYTHING. THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE TRANSVERSE RANGE WON`T HELP EITHER.
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS WITH SMALL CHANCES OVER THE ERN SAN
GABRIELS AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

MOST AREAS TODAY SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT HIGHS WILL DROP
AN ADDITIONAL 2-5 DEGREES FOR COAST AND VALLEYS AND 5-10 FOR THE
INTERIOR. ANOTHER SUNDOWNER EXPECTED THIS EVENING THOUGH LIKELY
ABOUT 5 MPH WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHT.

INVERSION WAS FAR TOO WEAK THIS MORNING TO SUPPORT MORE THAN JUST
SOME PATCHY MARINE LYR CLOUDS AND IT`S LOOKING LIKE SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH THE SAME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE
THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE AIR MASS BELOW 500 MB SO MAY HAVE TO TRIM
BACK ON LOW CLOUDS AGAIN FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE ON SUNDAY AS IT REMAINS OVER NEVADA.
A COUPLE OF VORT LOBES ROTATE AROUND THE LOW ONCE AGAIN...BUT MAINLY
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR AREAS. WILL LET FUTURE
SHIFTS LOOK CLOSER IF THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
INLAND AREAS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR MAYBE A DEGREE
WARMER FOR INTERIOR AREAS.

BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL IN AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LEAVING MOST OF CALIFORNIA UNDER BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY MONDAY TO MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THERE WILL BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
A VERY WARM AND DRY LONG TERM FORECAST. BROAD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY WITH WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS
SETTING UP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING ON TUESDAY
WITH WARMEST VALLEYS REACHING THE LOWER 90S. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING EVENT IS EXPECTED WED-FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE EASTERN
PAC WILL BUILD AS IT NUDGES EASTWARD OVER THE STATE. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW UNDER THE DOME OF HIGHER PRESSURE
LIMITING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DENSE FOG TO COASTAL AREAS. IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO STAY CONSISTENT...A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE COULD
BE IN STORE FROM WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE IS IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO ADD SOME UPPER LEVEL OFFSHORE SUPPORT WITH
STRONGER OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS BY THURSDAY. AT THE LEAST...HOT
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE LA/VTU VALLEYS WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR
COASTAL AREAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER DUE TO
THE HIGH TEMPS...GUSTY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE DRAW
CLOSER WITH MORE DETAILS.


&&

.AVIATION...27/1105Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z IS 1600 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP IS 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 16 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK
INVERSION IS RESULTING IN RANDOM FORMATION/DISSIPATION OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS THIS MORNING...AND A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST. BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDS FOR ALL TAF
SITES. FOR TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE...AT BEST...WITH
REGARD TO RETURN/TIMING OF MVFR/IFR CONDS TO COASTAL AND VALLEY TAF
SITES.

AS FOR WINDS...SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY REDUCED
VSBYS IN BLOWING DUST/SAND. ADDITIONALLY...THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER
DECENT SUNDOWNER EVENT THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN MODERATE
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z THIS MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF MVFR CIGS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
(COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT 10Z FORECAST).

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z THIS MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR CIGS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
(WITH BEST ESTIMATE AN ARRIVAL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING).

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AND
ELSEWHERE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN NORTHERN SANTA MONICA BAY AND OUT TO
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND END AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY GENERATED
RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 271621
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.
GRADUAL WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS POSSIBLE LATER
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THIS MORNING GENERATING PRETTY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLING PRETTY MUCH FROM TOP TO
BOTTOM, THOUGH A BIT MORE SO ALOFT AND THAT HAS DESTABILIZED THE AIR
MASS SOMEWHAT. UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT A BIT MORE SOUTH
THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN TURN EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS TURN TO
THE EAST OCCURS AN AREA OF PVA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ERN LA
COUNTY MTNS AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE THE EXTRA LIFT NEEDED TO GENERATE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. K INDICES ARE HIGHEST THERE AS WELL
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE THERE DOESN`T
APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OR LIFT TO GENERATE ANYTHING. THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE TRANSVERSE RANGE WON`T HELP EITHER.
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS WITH SMALL CHANCES OVER THE ERN SAN
GABRIELS AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

MOST AREAS TODAY SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT HIGHS WILL DROP
AN ADDITIONAL 2-5 DEGREES FOR COAST AND VALLEYS AND 5-10 FOR THE
INTERIOR. ANOTHER SUNDOWNER EXPECTED THIS EVENING THOUGH LIKELY
ABOUT 5 MPH WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHT.

INVERSION WAS FAR TOO WEAK THIS MORNING TO SUPPORT MORE THAN JUST
SOME PATCHY MARINE LYR CLOUDS AND IT`S LOOKING LIKE SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH THE SAME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE
THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE AIR MASS BELOW 500 MB SO MAY HAVE TO TRIM
BACK ON LOW CLOUDS AGAIN FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE ON SUNDAY AS IT REMAINS OVER NEVADA.
A COUPLE OF VORT LOBES ROTATE AROUND THE LOW ONCE AGAIN...BUT MAINLY
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR AREAS. WILL LET FUTURE
SHIFTS LOOK CLOSER IF THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
INLAND AREAS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR MAYBE A DEGREE
WARMER FOR INTERIOR AREAS.

BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL IN AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LEAVING MOST OF CALIFORNIA UNDER BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY MONDAY TO MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THERE WILL BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
A VERY WARM AND DRY LONG TERM FORECAST. BROAD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY WITH WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS
SETTING UP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING ON TUESDAY
WITH WARMEST VALLEYS REACHING THE LOWER 90S. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING EVENT IS EXPECTED WED-FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE EASTERN
PAC WILL BUILD AS IT NUDGES EASTWARD OVER THE STATE. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW UNDER THE DOME OF HIGHER PRESSURE
LIMITING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DENSE FOG TO COASTAL AREAS. IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO STAY CONSISTENT...A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE COULD
BE IN STORE FROM WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE IS IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO ADD SOME UPPER LEVEL OFFSHORE SUPPORT WITH
STRONGER OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS BY THURSDAY. AT THE LEAST...HOT
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE LA/VTU VALLEYS WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR
COASTAL AREAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER DUE TO
THE HIGH TEMPS...GUSTY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE DRAW
CLOSER WITH MORE DETAILS.


&&

.AVIATION...27/1105Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z IS 1600 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP IS 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 16 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK
INVERSION IS RESULTING IN RANDOM FORMATION/DISSIPATION OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS THIS MORNING...AND A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST. BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDS FOR ALL TAF
SITES. FOR TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE...AT BEST...WITH
REGARD TO RETURN/TIMING OF MVFR/IFR CONDS TO COASTAL AND VALLEY TAF
SITES.

AS FOR WINDS...SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY REDUCED
VSBYS IN BLOWING DUST/SAND. ADDITIONALLY...THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER
DECENT SUNDOWNER EVENT THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN MODERATE
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z THIS MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF MVFR CIGS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
(COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT 10Z FORECAST).

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z THIS MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR CIGS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
(WITH BEST ESTIMATE AN ARRIVAL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING).

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AND
ELSEWHERE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN NORTHERN SANTA MONICA BAY AND OUT TO
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND END AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY GENERATED
RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









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