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000
FXUS66 KLOX 051145
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR SKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK EXCEPT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...AND LOCALLY IN SOME
VALLEYS. THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK
WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LOW CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE A TOUGH ONE
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS NEAR LAX SHOWED THE
MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 3300 FT. THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION WAS
NOT TOO STRONG WHICH IS WHY THIS MORNING`S FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY.
LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVERAGE
OVER SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER AREAS TO THE
NORTH WERE STILL CLEAR. THE EDDY CIRCULATION DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY MORNING. WITH A WEAKER INVERSION IN
PLACE...RANDOM CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. A FEW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM CATALINA TO WEST LOS ANGELES. WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF LA COUNTY BY SUNRISE...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT
FOR VENTURA COAST AND VALLEYS OR SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST.
NEVERTHELESS...WHAT LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY LATE
MORNING....TO SUNNY SKIES.

OVERALL...AN UPPER LOW WAS CURRENTLY SWINGING EAST FROM OREGON INTO
IDAHO THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT AS THE LOW PUSHES
EAST...THE H5 HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL RISE A FEW DECAMETERS
AND THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE A TAD WEAKER TODAY. THEREFORE...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOME GUSTY SW WINDS ACROSS THE LA COUNTY MTNS AND FOOTHILLS IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL BAJA BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY TODAY AS IT GETS STEERED BY THE DEEP TROUGH TO THE WEST.
THERE WILL BE NO REMNANT MOISTURE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM
KEVIN. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN NEVADA AND THE SOCAL COAST. WINDS WILL
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BY ANY MEANS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A
DECENT WARM UP ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND EVEN THE INLAND COASTAL AREAS
OF LA/VTU COUNTIES. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL ALSO SEE A BUMP UP IN
TEMPS SUNDAY AS MODEST DOWNSLOPE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD HELP THE CENTRAL
COAST HEAT UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SLO AND SANTA MARIA. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO LA COUNTY COAST AND POSSIBLY SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY REVERT BACK TO ONSHORE YET WEAKLY FOR MONDAY. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXPAND WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
BRING ADDITIONAL WARMING TO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPT IT SHOULD BE
COOLER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS MORE TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW
PREVAILS WITH HIGH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN RESPECT TO STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT
CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE NRN MEXICO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY
TUESDAY...WITH MORE WARMING EXPECTED WED INTO THURSDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL RE ESTABLISH ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A NEW DISTURBANCE OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO THAT HAS A
CHANCE TO GROW INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND POSSIBLY STRONGER.
MODELS DO PICK UP ON THAT. THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL TO KEEP ANY
REMNANT MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER BOTH THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS DO DRAW THE POSSIBLE HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM
REMNANTS OVER THE REGION BY NEXT THURSDAY. STILL TOO EARLY TO JUMP
ON THIS...BUT WILL BE MONITORING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE
LEAST SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1145Z.

AT 0820Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 3200
FT. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 4000 FT WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 16C.

STRATUS WAS SLOW TO FORM THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. CLOUDS MAY PUSH INTO THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND
INTO THE VTU COUNTY COAST. EXPECT GENERALLY MVRF CIGS...EXCEPT
LOCALLY IFR IN THE FOOTHILLS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TONIGHT/SUN MORNING TO BE
CONFINED TO THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND POSSIBLY THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY. CONDS SHOULD BE LOW MVFR OR HIGH IFR TONIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 20Z. THERE IS A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT/SUN MORNING.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...05/300 AM.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SCA LEVEL WINDS AND ROUGH AND CHOPPY
SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THEN SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MON.

THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

A 19 SECOND PERIOD OR GREATER SOUTH SWELL HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
TO 2 TO 3 FEET AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY GENERATE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS WHICH
MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO ANCHORED BOATS.

.BEACHES...BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND POSSIBLE INTO TUE OR WED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...DB
BEACHES...DB


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 051145
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR SKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK EXCEPT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...AND LOCALLY IN SOME
VALLEYS. THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK
WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LOW CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE A TOUGH ONE
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS NEAR LAX SHOWED THE
MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 3300 FT. THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION WAS
NOT TOO STRONG WHICH IS WHY THIS MORNING`S FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY.
LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVERAGE
OVER SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER AREAS TO THE
NORTH WERE STILL CLEAR. THE EDDY CIRCULATION DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY MORNING. WITH A WEAKER INVERSION IN
PLACE...RANDOM CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. A FEW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM CATALINA TO WEST LOS ANGELES. WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF LA COUNTY BY SUNRISE...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT
FOR VENTURA COAST AND VALLEYS OR SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST.
NEVERTHELESS...WHAT LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY LATE
MORNING....TO SUNNY SKIES.

OVERALL...AN UPPER LOW WAS CURRENTLY SWINGING EAST FROM OREGON INTO
IDAHO THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT AS THE LOW PUSHES
EAST...THE H5 HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL RISE A FEW DECAMETERS
AND THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE A TAD WEAKER TODAY. THEREFORE...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOME GUSTY SW WINDS ACROSS THE LA COUNTY MTNS AND FOOTHILLS IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL BAJA BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY TODAY AS IT GETS STEERED BY THE DEEP TROUGH TO THE WEST.
THERE WILL BE NO REMNANT MOISTURE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM
KEVIN. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN NEVADA AND THE SOCAL COAST. WINDS WILL
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BY ANY MEANS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A
DECENT WARM UP ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND EVEN THE INLAND COASTAL AREAS
OF LA/VTU COUNTIES. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL ALSO SEE A BUMP UP IN
TEMPS SUNDAY AS MODEST DOWNSLOPE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD HELP THE CENTRAL
COAST HEAT UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SLO AND SANTA MARIA. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO LA COUNTY COAST AND POSSIBLY SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY REVERT BACK TO ONSHORE YET WEAKLY FOR MONDAY. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXPAND WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
BRING ADDITIONAL WARMING TO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPT IT SHOULD BE
COOLER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS MORE TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW
PREVAILS WITH HIGH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN RESPECT TO STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT
CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE NRN MEXICO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY
TUESDAY...WITH MORE WARMING EXPECTED WED INTO THURSDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL RE ESTABLISH ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A NEW DISTURBANCE OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO THAT HAS A
CHANCE TO GROW INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND POSSIBLY STRONGER.
MODELS DO PICK UP ON THAT. THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL TO KEEP ANY
REMNANT MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER BOTH THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS DO DRAW THE POSSIBLE HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM
REMNANTS OVER THE REGION BY NEXT THURSDAY. STILL TOO EARLY TO JUMP
ON THIS...BUT WILL BE MONITORING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE
LEAST SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1145Z.

AT 0820Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 3200
FT. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 4000 FT WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 16C.

STRATUS WAS SLOW TO FORM THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. CLOUDS MAY PUSH INTO THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND
INTO THE VTU COUNTY COAST. EXPECT GENERALLY MVRF CIGS...EXCEPT
LOCALLY IFR IN THE FOOTHILLS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TONIGHT/SUN MORNING TO BE
CONFINED TO THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND POSSIBLY THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY. CONDS SHOULD BE LOW MVFR OR HIGH IFR TONIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 20Z. THERE IS A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT/SUN MORNING.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...05/300 AM.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SCA LEVEL WINDS AND ROUGH AND CHOPPY
SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THEN SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MON.

THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

A 19 SECOND PERIOD OR GREATER SOUTH SWELL HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
TO 2 TO 3 FEET AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY GENERATE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS WHICH
MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO ANCHORED BOATS.

.BEACHES...BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND POSSIBLE INTO TUE OR WED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...DB
BEACHES...DB


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 050959
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR SKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK EXCEPT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...AND LOCALLY IN SOME
VALLEYS. THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK
WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LOW CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE A TOUGH ONE
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS NEAR LAX SHOWED THE
MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 3300 FT. THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION WAS
NOT TOO STRONG WHICH IS WHY THIS MORNING`S FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY.
LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVERAGE
OVER SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER AREAS TO THE
NORTH WERE STILL CLEAR. THE EDDY CIRCULATION DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY MORNING. WITH A WEAKER INVERSION IN
PLACE...RANDOM CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. A FEW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM CATALINA TO WEST LOS ANGELES. WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF LA COUNTY BY SUNRISE...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT
FOR VENTURA COAST AND VALLEYS OR SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST.
NEVERTHELESS...WHAT LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY LATE
MORNING....TO SUNNY SKIES.

OVERALL...AN UPPER LOW WAS CURRENTLY SWINGING EAST FROM OREGON INTO
IDAHO THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT AS THE LOW PUSHES
EAST...THE H5 HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL RISE A FEW DECAMETERS
AND THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE A TAD WEAKER TODAY. THEREFORE...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOME GUSTY SW WINDS ACROSS THE LA COUNTY MTNS AND FOOTHILLS IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL BAJA BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY TODAY AS IT GETS STEERED BY THE DEEP TROUGH TO THE WEST.
THERE WILL BE NO REMNANT MOISTURE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM
KEVIN. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN NEVADA AND THE SOCAL COAST. WINDS WILL
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BY ANY MEANS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A
DECENT WARM UP ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND EVEN THE INLAND COASTAL AREAS
OF LA/VTU COUNTIES. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL ALSO SEE A BUMP UP IN
TEMPS SUNDAY AS MODEST DOWNSLOPE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD HELP THE CENTRAL
COAST HEAT UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SLO AND SANTA MARIA. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO LA COUNTY COAST AND POSSIBLY SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY REVERT BACK TO ONSHORE YET WEAKLY FOR MONDAY. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXPAND WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
BRING ADDITIONAL WARMING TO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPT IT SHOULD BE
COOLER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS MORE TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW
PREVAILS WITH HIGH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN RESPECT TO STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT
CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE NRN MEXICO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY
TUESDAY...WITH MORE WARMING EXPECTED WED INTO THURSDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL RE ESTABLISH ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A NEW DISTURBANCE OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO THAT HAS A
CHANCE TO GROW INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND POSSIBLY STRONGER.
MODELS DO PICK UP ON THAT. THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL TO KEEP ANY
REMNANT MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER BOTH THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS DO DRAW THE POSSIBLE HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM
REMNANTS OVER THE REGION BY NEXT THURSDAY. STILL TOO EARLY TO JUMP
ON THIS...BUT WILL BE MONITORING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE
LEAST SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST LATER NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...05/0515Z.

AT 2309Z...AT 0440Z THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 3000
FT...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS ANOTHER VERY WEAK INVERSION AT 1500 FT. THE
TOP OF THE MAIN INVERSION WAS AT 4500 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18C.

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD CIGS TO
AFFECT MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. CONDS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...EXCEPT LOCALLY IFR IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST. EXPECT SOMEWHAT FASTER CLEARING
OF THE LOW CLOUDS ON SAT MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 08Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/800 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND NEAR-SHORE NORTH OF POINT SAL.
SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE 7 TO 10 FEET...BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD SATURDAY EVENING. LOWER TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST.

A 20 SECOND PERIOD OR GREATER SOUTH SWELL HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INTO
THE FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY GENERATE EXTRA SURGING AND
CURRENTS WHICH MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO ANCHORED BOATS.

.BEACHES...BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 050959
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR SKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK EXCEPT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...AND LOCALLY IN SOME
VALLEYS. THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK
WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LOW CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE A TOUGH ONE
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS NEAR LAX SHOWED THE
MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 3300 FT. THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION WAS
NOT TOO STRONG WHICH IS WHY THIS MORNING`S FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY.
LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVERAGE
OVER SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER AREAS TO THE
NORTH WERE STILL CLEAR. THE EDDY CIRCULATION DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY MORNING. WITH A WEAKER INVERSION IN
PLACE...RANDOM CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. A FEW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM CATALINA TO WEST LOS ANGELES. WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF LA COUNTY BY SUNRISE...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT
FOR VENTURA COAST AND VALLEYS OR SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST.
NEVERTHELESS...WHAT LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY LATE
MORNING....TO SUNNY SKIES.

OVERALL...AN UPPER LOW WAS CURRENTLY SWINGING EAST FROM OREGON INTO
IDAHO THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT AS THE LOW PUSHES
EAST...THE H5 HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL RISE A FEW DECAMETERS
AND THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE A TAD WEAKER TODAY. THEREFORE...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOME GUSTY SW WINDS ACROSS THE LA COUNTY MTNS AND FOOTHILLS IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL BAJA BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY TODAY AS IT GETS STEERED BY THE DEEP TROUGH TO THE WEST.
THERE WILL BE NO REMNANT MOISTURE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM
KEVIN. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN NEVADA AND THE SOCAL COAST. WINDS WILL
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BY ANY MEANS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A
DECENT WARM UP ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND EVEN THE INLAND COASTAL AREAS
OF LA/VTU COUNTIES. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL ALSO SEE A BUMP UP IN
TEMPS SUNDAY AS MODEST DOWNSLOPE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD HELP THE CENTRAL
COAST HEAT UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SLO AND SANTA MARIA. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO LA COUNTY COAST AND POSSIBLY SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY REVERT BACK TO ONSHORE YET WEAKLY FOR MONDAY. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXPAND WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
BRING ADDITIONAL WARMING TO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPT IT SHOULD BE
COOLER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS MORE TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW
PREVAILS WITH HIGH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN RESPECT TO STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT
CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE NRN MEXICO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY
TUESDAY...WITH MORE WARMING EXPECTED WED INTO THURSDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL RE ESTABLISH ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A NEW DISTURBANCE OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO THAT HAS A
CHANCE TO GROW INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND POSSIBLY STRONGER.
MODELS DO PICK UP ON THAT. THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL TO KEEP ANY
REMNANT MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER BOTH THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS DO DRAW THE POSSIBLE HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM
REMNANTS OVER THE REGION BY NEXT THURSDAY. STILL TOO EARLY TO JUMP
ON THIS...BUT WILL BE MONITORING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE
LEAST SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST LATER NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...05/0515Z.

AT 2309Z...AT 0440Z THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 3000
FT...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS ANOTHER VERY WEAK INVERSION AT 1500 FT. THE
TOP OF THE MAIN INVERSION WAS AT 4500 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18C.

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD CIGS TO
AFFECT MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. CONDS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...EXCEPT LOCALLY IFR IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST. EXPECT SOMEWHAT FASTER CLEARING
OF THE LOW CLOUDS ON SAT MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 08Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/800 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND NEAR-SHORE NORTH OF POINT SAL.
SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE 7 TO 10 FEET...BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD SATURDAY EVENING. LOWER TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST.

A 20 SECOND PERIOD OR GREATER SOUTH SWELL HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INTO
THE FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY GENERATE EXTRA SURGING AND
CURRENTS WHICH MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO ANCHORED BOATS.

.BEACHES...BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 050516 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1015 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK EXCEPT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST...AND AT TIMES IN  SOME VALLEYS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. THEN A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX THIS
EVENING WAS AROUND 1600 FEET DEEP...AND SHOULD DEEPEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AS AN EDDY DEVELOPS OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS WERE NOTED AROUND CATALINA ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT AND ALONG THE COAST THRU
TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS LATER TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THRU THE NIGHT. LINGERING GUSTY S TO W WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL GUSTY N CANYON WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SBA S
COAST AND MTNS THIS EVENING.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PERSIST OVER SWRN CA THRU TONIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON SAT. MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS SHOULD
THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT THRU MON.

A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP VARYING AMOUNTS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS THRU SAT MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A SHALLOWER MARINE INVERSION BY SAT NIGHT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND SAN GABRIEL
VLY SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING...AND FOR THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY COAST
AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THRU
MON. BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL COAST...AND FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY THRU
SAT AND AGAIN ON MON. SOME OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER SLO/SBA
COUNTIES AND INTERIOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
AS WELL...WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THRU
SAT...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE WARMER TEMPS FOR SUN...WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS...EXCEPT
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MON FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHO THE WARMEST VLYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID 90S IN THE ANTELOPE VLY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL FLOW LOOKS TO
PREVAIL WITH WEAK OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND WEAK ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH REGARD
TO STRATUS COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A
WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND MARINE
LAYER STRATUS IS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN FACT BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0515Z.

AT 2309Z...AT 0440Z THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 3000
FT...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS ANOTHER VERY WEAK INVERSION AT 1500 FT. THE
TOP OF THE MAIN INVERSION WAS AT 4500 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18C.

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD CIGS TO
AFFECT MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. CONDS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...EXCEPT LOCALLY IFR IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST. EXPECT SOMEWHAT FASTER CLEARING
OF THE LOW CLOUDS ON SAT MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 08Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/800 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND NEAR-SHORE NORTH OF POINT SAL.
SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE 7 TO 10 FEET...BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD SATURDAY EVENING. LOWER TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST.

A 20 SECOND PERIOD OR GREATER SOUTH SWELL HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INTO
THE FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY GENERATE EXTRA SURGING AND
CURRENTS WHICH MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO ANCHORED BOATS.

.BEACHES...BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RAT
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 050516 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1015 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK EXCEPT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST...AND AT TIMES IN  SOME VALLEYS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. THEN A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX THIS
EVENING WAS AROUND 1600 FEET DEEP...AND SHOULD DEEPEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AS AN EDDY DEVELOPS OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS WERE NOTED AROUND CATALINA ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT AND ALONG THE COAST THRU
TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS LATER TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THRU THE NIGHT. LINGERING GUSTY S TO W WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL GUSTY N CANYON WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SBA S
COAST AND MTNS THIS EVENING.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PERSIST OVER SWRN CA THRU TONIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON SAT. MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS SHOULD
THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT THRU MON.

A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP VARYING AMOUNTS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS THRU SAT MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A SHALLOWER MARINE INVERSION BY SAT NIGHT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND SAN GABRIEL
VLY SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING...AND FOR THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY COAST
AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THRU
MON. BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL COAST...AND FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY THRU
SAT AND AGAIN ON MON. SOME OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER SLO/SBA
COUNTIES AND INTERIOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
AS WELL...WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THRU
SAT...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE WARMER TEMPS FOR SUN...WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS...EXCEPT
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MON FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHO THE WARMEST VLYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID 90S IN THE ANTELOPE VLY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL FLOW LOOKS TO
PREVAIL WITH WEAK OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND WEAK ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH REGARD
TO STRATUS COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A
WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND MARINE
LAYER STRATUS IS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN FACT BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0515Z.

AT 2309Z...AT 0440Z THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 3000
FT...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS ANOTHER VERY WEAK INVERSION AT 1500 FT. THE
TOP OF THE MAIN INVERSION WAS AT 4500 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18C.

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD CIGS TO
AFFECT MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. CONDS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...EXCEPT LOCALLY IFR IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST. EXPECT SOMEWHAT FASTER CLEARING
OF THE LOW CLOUDS ON SAT MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 08Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/800 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND NEAR-SHORE NORTH OF POINT SAL.
SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE 7 TO 10 FEET...BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD SATURDAY EVENING. LOWER TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST.

A 20 SECOND PERIOD OR GREATER SOUTH SWELL HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INTO
THE FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY GENERATE EXTRA SURGING AND
CURRENTS WHICH MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO ANCHORED BOATS.

.BEACHES...BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RAT
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 050337
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
840 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK EXCEPT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST...AND AT TIMES IN  SOME VALLEYS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. THEN A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX THIS
EVENING WAS AROUND 1600 FEET DEEP...AND SHOULD DEEPEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AS AN EDDY DEVELOPS OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS WERE NOTED AROUND CATALINA ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT AND ALONG THE COAST THRU
TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS LATER TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THRU THE NIGHT. LINGERING GUSTY S TO W WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL GUSTY N CANYON WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SBA S
COAST AND MTNS THIS EVENING.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PERSIST OVER SWRN CA THRU TONIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON SAT. MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS SHOULD
THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT THRU MON.

A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP VARYING AMOUNTS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS THRU SAT MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A SHALLOWER MARINE INVERSION BY SAT NIGHT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND SAN GABRIEL
VLY SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING...AND FOR THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY COAST
AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THRU
MON. BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL COAST...AND FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY THRU
SAT AND AGAIN ON MON. SOME OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER SLO/SBA
COUNTIES AND INTERIOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
AS WELL...WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THRU
SAT...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE WARMER TEMPS FOR SUN...WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS...EXCEPT
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MON FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHO THE WARMEST VLYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID 90S IN THE ANTELOPE VLY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL FLOW LOOKS TO
PREVAIL WITH WEAK OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND WEAK ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH REGARD
TO STRATUS COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A
WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND MARINE
LAYER STRATUS IS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN FACT BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0015Z.

AT 2309Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUD AND
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AT ALL COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AIRFIELDS. THE CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AT MOST AIRFIELDS
EARLY SAT MORNING THEN LINGER INTO LATE SAT MORNING TO EARLY SAT
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KPMD...KWJF AND KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z
TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SAT. AT KWJF AND KPMD...GUSTY
W TO SW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN
SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSBP AND KSMX
EARLY THIS EVENING.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z TONIGHT...IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY
16Z SAT THEN SCATTER OUT BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
THRU SAT EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z TONIGHT...IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY
16Z SAT THEN CLEAR BY 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THRU SAT
AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...04/800 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND NEAR-SHORE NORTH OF POINT SAL.
SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE 7 TO 10 FEET...BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD SATURDAY EVENING. LOWER TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST.

A 20 SECOND PERIOD OR GREATER SOUTH SWELL HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INTO
THE FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY GENERATE EXTRA SURGING AND
CURRENTS WHICH MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO ANCHORED BOATS.

.BEACHES...BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RAT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 050337
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
840 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK EXCEPT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST...AND AT TIMES IN  SOME VALLEYS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. THEN A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX THIS
EVENING WAS AROUND 1600 FEET DEEP...AND SHOULD DEEPEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AS AN EDDY DEVELOPS OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS WERE NOTED AROUND CATALINA ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT AND ALONG THE COAST THRU
TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS LATER TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THRU THE NIGHT. LINGERING GUSTY S TO W WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL GUSTY N CANYON WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SBA S
COAST AND MTNS THIS EVENING.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PERSIST OVER SWRN CA THRU TONIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON SAT. MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS SHOULD
THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT THRU MON.

A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP VARYING AMOUNTS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS THRU SAT MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A SHALLOWER MARINE INVERSION BY SAT NIGHT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND SAN GABRIEL
VLY SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING...AND FOR THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY COAST
AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THRU
MON. BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL COAST...AND FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY THRU
SAT AND AGAIN ON MON. SOME OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER SLO/SBA
COUNTIES AND INTERIOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
AS WELL...WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THRU
SAT...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE WARMER TEMPS FOR SUN...WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS...EXCEPT
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MON FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHO THE WARMEST VLYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID 90S IN THE ANTELOPE VLY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL FLOW LOOKS TO
PREVAIL WITH WEAK OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND WEAK ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH REGARD
TO STRATUS COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A
WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND MARINE
LAYER STRATUS IS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN FACT BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0015Z.

AT 2309Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUD AND
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AT ALL COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AIRFIELDS. THE CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AT MOST AIRFIELDS
EARLY SAT MORNING THEN LINGER INTO LATE SAT MORNING TO EARLY SAT
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KPMD...KWJF AND KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z
TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SAT. AT KWJF AND KPMD...GUSTY
W TO SW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN
SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSBP AND KSMX
EARLY THIS EVENING.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z TONIGHT...IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY
16Z SAT THEN SCATTER OUT BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
THRU SAT EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z TONIGHT...IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY
16Z SAT THEN CLEAR BY 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THRU SAT
AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...04/800 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND NEAR-SHORE NORTH OF POINT SAL.
SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE 7 TO 10 FEET...BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD SATURDAY EVENING. LOWER TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST.

A 20 SECOND PERIOD OR GREATER SOUTH SWELL HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INTO
THE FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY GENERATE EXTRA SURGING AND
CURRENTS WHICH MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO ANCHORED BOATS.

.BEACHES...BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RAT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 050337
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
840 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK EXCEPT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST...AND AT TIMES IN  SOME VALLEYS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. THEN A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX THIS
EVENING WAS AROUND 1600 FEET DEEP...AND SHOULD DEEPEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AS AN EDDY DEVELOPS OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS WERE NOTED AROUND CATALINA ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT AND ALONG THE COAST THRU
TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS LATER TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THRU THE NIGHT. LINGERING GUSTY S TO W WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL GUSTY N CANYON WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SBA S
COAST AND MTNS THIS EVENING.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PERSIST OVER SWRN CA THRU TONIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON SAT. MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS SHOULD
THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT THRU MON.

A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP VARYING AMOUNTS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS THRU SAT MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A SHALLOWER MARINE INVERSION BY SAT NIGHT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND SAN GABRIEL
VLY SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING...AND FOR THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY COAST
AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THRU
MON. BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL COAST...AND FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY THRU
SAT AND AGAIN ON MON. SOME OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER SLO/SBA
COUNTIES AND INTERIOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
AS WELL...WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THRU
SAT...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE WARMER TEMPS FOR SUN...WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS...EXCEPT
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MON FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHO THE WARMEST VLYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID 90S IN THE ANTELOPE VLY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL FLOW LOOKS TO
PREVAIL WITH WEAK OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND WEAK ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH REGARD
TO STRATUS COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A
WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND MARINE
LAYER STRATUS IS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN FACT BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0015Z.

AT 2309Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUD AND
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AT ALL COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AIRFIELDS. THE CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AT MOST AIRFIELDS
EARLY SAT MORNING THEN LINGER INTO LATE SAT MORNING TO EARLY SAT
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KPMD...KWJF AND KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z
TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SAT. AT KWJF AND KPMD...GUSTY
W TO SW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN
SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSBP AND KSMX
EARLY THIS EVENING.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z TONIGHT...IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY
16Z SAT THEN SCATTER OUT BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
THRU SAT EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z TONIGHT...IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY
16Z SAT THEN CLEAR BY 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THRU SAT
AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...04/800 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND NEAR-SHORE NORTH OF POINT SAL.
SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE 7 TO 10 FEET...BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD SATURDAY EVENING. LOWER TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST.

A 20 SECOND PERIOD OR GREATER SOUTH SWELL HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INTO
THE FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY GENERATE EXTRA SURGING AND
CURRENTS WHICH MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO ANCHORED BOATS.

.BEACHES...BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RAT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 050337
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
840 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK EXCEPT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST...AND AT TIMES IN  SOME VALLEYS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. THEN A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX THIS
EVENING WAS AROUND 1600 FEET DEEP...AND SHOULD DEEPEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AS AN EDDY DEVELOPS OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS WERE NOTED AROUND CATALINA ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT AND ALONG THE COAST THRU
TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS LATER TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THRU THE NIGHT. LINGERING GUSTY S TO W WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL GUSTY N CANYON WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SBA S
COAST AND MTNS THIS EVENING.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PERSIST OVER SWRN CA THRU TONIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON SAT. MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS SHOULD
THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT THRU MON.

A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP VARYING AMOUNTS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS THRU SAT MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A SHALLOWER MARINE INVERSION BY SAT NIGHT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND SAN GABRIEL
VLY SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING...AND FOR THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY COAST
AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THRU
MON. BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL COAST...AND FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY THRU
SAT AND AGAIN ON MON. SOME OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER SLO/SBA
COUNTIES AND INTERIOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
AS WELL...WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THRU
SAT...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE WARMER TEMPS FOR SUN...WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS...EXCEPT
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MON FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHO THE WARMEST VLYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID 90S IN THE ANTELOPE VLY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL FLOW LOOKS TO
PREVAIL WITH WEAK OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND WEAK ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH REGARD
TO STRATUS COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A
WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND MARINE
LAYER STRATUS IS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN FACT BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0015Z.

AT 2309Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUD AND
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AT ALL COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AIRFIELDS. THE CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AT MOST AIRFIELDS
EARLY SAT MORNING THEN LINGER INTO LATE SAT MORNING TO EARLY SAT
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KPMD...KWJF AND KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z
TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SAT. AT KWJF AND KPMD...GUSTY
W TO SW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN
SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSBP AND KSMX
EARLY THIS EVENING.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z TONIGHT...IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY
16Z SAT THEN SCATTER OUT BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
THRU SAT EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z TONIGHT...IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY
16Z SAT THEN CLEAR BY 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THRU SAT
AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...04/800 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND NEAR-SHORE NORTH OF POINT SAL.
SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE 7 TO 10 FEET...BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD SATURDAY EVENING. LOWER TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST.

A 20 SECOND PERIOD OR GREATER SOUTH SWELL HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INTO
THE FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY GENERATE EXTRA SURGING AND
CURRENTS WHICH MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO ANCHORED BOATS.

.BEACHES...BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RAT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 050020
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
520 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE RETREAT OF MORNING CLOUDS TO SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW WILL DROP INTO
OREGON TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AS WEAK TROUGHING
REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY...TURNING WEAKLY OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY...THEN BACK WEAKLY ONSHORE ON MONDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
STILL NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED BY THE MODELS...SO
SKIES INLAND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN/VALLEYS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. WITH SLIGHT H5 HEIGHT RISES TONIGHT...THE
MARINE INVERSION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE SHALLOW...BUT STILL PLENTY
DEEP ENOUGH TO PUSH WELL INLAND TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW AND FURTHER H5 HEIGHTS RISES IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
STRATUS TO SOUTHERLY LOS ANGELES COUNTY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THE STRATUS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD REACHING UP TO
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST...AND DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST.

AS FOR WINDS...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE USUAL GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
OFFSHORE WINDS IS NEGLIGIBLE...SO WILL ONLY ANTICIPATE LOCALIZED
NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. ON MONDAY...THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL REESTABLISH THEMSELVES
BUT REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE 3-6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. ON SUNDAY...THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REALLY
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES...WITH AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S. ON MONDAY...ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS ANTICIPATED

THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ...A
BIT WARMER INLAND AND A BIT COOLER NEAR THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL FLOW LOOKS TO
PREVAIL WITH WEAK OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND WEAK ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH REGARD
TO STRATUS COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A
WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND MARINE
LAYER STRATUS IS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN FACT BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0015Z.

AT 2309Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUD AND
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AT ALL COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AIRFIELDS. THE CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AT MOST AIRFIELDS
EARLY SAT MORNING THEN LINGER INTO LATE SAT MORNING TO EARLY SAT
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KPMD...KWJF AND KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z
TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SAT. AT KWJF AND KPMD...GUSTY
W TO SW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN
SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSBP AND KSMX
EARLY THIS EVENING.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z TONIGHT...IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY
16Z SAT THEN SCATTER OUT BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
THRU SAT EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z TONIGHT...IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY
16Z SAT THEN CLEAR BY 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THRU SAT
AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...04/200 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VERY LIKELY
PERSIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND INCLUDING THE 0-
10 NM FROM PIEDRAS TO POINT SAL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.  A 20 SECOND PERIOD OR GREATER SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY GENERATE EXTRA
SURGING AND CURRENTS WHICH MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO ANCHORED BOATS.


.BEACHES...BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LONG PERIOD SWELL BEGINS TO
ARRIVE...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE
ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 050020
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
520 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE RETREAT OF MORNING CLOUDS TO SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW WILL DROP INTO
OREGON TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AS WEAK TROUGHING
REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY...TURNING WEAKLY OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY...THEN BACK WEAKLY ONSHORE ON MONDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
STILL NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED BY THE MODELS...SO
SKIES INLAND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN/VALLEYS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. WITH SLIGHT H5 HEIGHT RISES TONIGHT...THE
MARINE INVERSION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE SHALLOW...BUT STILL PLENTY
DEEP ENOUGH TO PUSH WELL INLAND TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW AND FURTHER H5 HEIGHTS RISES IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
STRATUS TO SOUTHERLY LOS ANGELES COUNTY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THE STRATUS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD REACHING UP TO
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST...AND DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST.

AS FOR WINDS...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE USUAL GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
OFFSHORE WINDS IS NEGLIGIBLE...SO WILL ONLY ANTICIPATE LOCALIZED
NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. ON MONDAY...THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL REESTABLISH THEMSELVES
BUT REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE 3-6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. ON SUNDAY...THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REALLY
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES...WITH AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S. ON MONDAY...ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS ANTICIPATED

THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ...A
BIT WARMER INLAND AND A BIT COOLER NEAR THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL FLOW LOOKS TO
PREVAIL WITH WEAK OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND WEAK ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH REGARD
TO STRATUS COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A
WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND MARINE
LAYER STRATUS IS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN FACT BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0015Z.

AT 2309Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUD AND
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AT ALL COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AIRFIELDS. THE CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AT MOST AIRFIELDS
EARLY SAT MORNING THEN LINGER INTO LATE SAT MORNING TO EARLY SAT
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KPMD...KWJF AND KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z
TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SAT. AT KWJF AND KPMD...GUSTY
W TO SW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN
SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSBP AND KSMX
EARLY THIS EVENING.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z TONIGHT...IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY
16Z SAT THEN SCATTER OUT BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
THRU SAT EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z TONIGHT...IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY
16Z SAT THEN CLEAR BY 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THRU SAT
AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...04/200 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VERY LIKELY
PERSIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND INCLUDING THE 0-
10 NM FROM PIEDRAS TO POINT SAL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.  A 20 SECOND PERIOD OR GREATER SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY GENERATE EXTRA
SURGING AND CURRENTS WHICH MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO ANCHORED BOATS.


.BEACHES...BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LONG PERIOD SWELL BEGINS TO
ARRIVE...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE
ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 050020
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
520 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE RETREAT OF MORNING CLOUDS TO SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW WILL DROP INTO
OREGON TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AS WEAK TROUGHING
REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY...TURNING WEAKLY OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY...THEN BACK WEAKLY ONSHORE ON MONDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
STILL NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED BY THE MODELS...SO
SKIES INLAND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN/VALLEYS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. WITH SLIGHT H5 HEIGHT RISES TONIGHT...THE
MARINE INVERSION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE SHALLOW...BUT STILL PLENTY
DEEP ENOUGH TO PUSH WELL INLAND TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW AND FURTHER H5 HEIGHTS RISES IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
STRATUS TO SOUTHERLY LOS ANGELES COUNTY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THE STRATUS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD REACHING UP TO
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST...AND DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST.

AS FOR WINDS...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE USUAL GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
OFFSHORE WINDS IS NEGLIGIBLE...SO WILL ONLY ANTICIPATE LOCALIZED
NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. ON MONDAY...THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL REESTABLISH THEMSELVES
BUT REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE 3-6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. ON SUNDAY...THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REALLY
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES...WITH AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S. ON MONDAY...ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS ANTICIPATED

THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ...A
BIT WARMER INLAND AND A BIT COOLER NEAR THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL FLOW LOOKS TO
PREVAIL WITH WEAK OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND WEAK ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH REGARD
TO STRATUS COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A
WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND MARINE
LAYER STRATUS IS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN FACT BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0015Z.

AT 2309Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUD AND
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AT ALL COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AIRFIELDS. THE CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AT MOST AIRFIELDS
EARLY SAT MORNING THEN LINGER INTO LATE SAT MORNING TO EARLY SAT
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KPMD...KWJF AND KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z
TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SAT. AT KWJF AND KPMD...GUSTY
W TO SW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN
SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSBP AND KSMX
EARLY THIS EVENING.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z TONIGHT...IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY
16Z SAT THEN SCATTER OUT BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
THRU SAT EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z TONIGHT...IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY
16Z SAT THEN CLEAR BY 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THRU SAT
AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...04/200 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VERY LIKELY
PERSIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND INCLUDING THE 0-
10 NM FROM PIEDRAS TO POINT SAL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.  A 20 SECOND PERIOD OR GREATER SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY GENERATE EXTRA
SURGING AND CURRENTS WHICH MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO ANCHORED BOATS.


.BEACHES...BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LONG PERIOD SWELL BEGINS TO
ARRIVE...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE
ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 050020
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
520 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE RETREAT OF MORNING CLOUDS TO SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW WILL DROP INTO
OREGON TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AS WEAK TROUGHING
REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY...TURNING WEAKLY OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY...THEN BACK WEAKLY ONSHORE ON MONDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
STILL NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED BY THE MODELS...SO
SKIES INLAND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN/VALLEYS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. WITH SLIGHT H5 HEIGHT RISES TONIGHT...THE
MARINE INVERSION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE SHALLOW...BUT STILL PLENTY
DEEP ENOUGH TO PUSH WELL INLAND TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW AND FURTHER H5 HEIGHTS RISES IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
STRATUS TO SOUTHERLY LOS ANGELES COUNTY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THE STRATUS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD REACHING UP TO
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST...AND DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST.

AS FOR WINDS...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE USUAL GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
OFFSHORE WINDS IS NEGLIGIBLE...SO WILL ONLY ANTICIPATE LOCALIZED
NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. ON MONDAY...THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL REESTABLISH THEMSELVES
BUT REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE 3-6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. ON SUNDAY...THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REALLY
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES...WITH AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S. ON MONDAY...ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS ANTICIPATED

THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ...A
BIT WARMER INLAND AND A BIT COOLER NEAR THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL FLOW LOOKS TO
PREVAIL WITH WEAK OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND WEAK ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH REGARD
TO STRATUS COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A
WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND MARINE
LAYER STRATUS IS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN FACT BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0015Z.

AT 2309Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUD AND
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AT ALL COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AIRFIELDS. THE CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AT MOST AIRFIELDS
EARLY SAT MORNING THEN LINGER INTO LATE SAT MORNING TO EARLY SAT
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KPMD...KWJF AND KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z
TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SAT. AT KWJF AND KPMD...GUSTY
W TO SW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN
SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSBP AND KSMX
EARLY THIS EVENING.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z TONIGHT...IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY
16Z SAT THEN SCATTER OUT BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
THRU SAT EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z TONIGHT...IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY
16Z SAT THEN CLEAR BY 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THRU SAT
AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...04/200 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VERY LIKELY
PERSIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND INCLUDING THE 0-
10 NM FROM PIEDRAS TO POINT SAL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.  A 20 SECOND PERIOD OR GREATER SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY GENERATE EXTRA
SURGING AND CURRENTS WHICH MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO ANCHORED BOATS.


.BEACHES...BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LONG PERIOD SWELL BEGINS TO
ARRIVE...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE
ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 042059
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE RETREAT OF MORNING CLOUDS TO SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW WILL DROP INTO
ORGEGON TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AS WEAK TROUGHING
REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY...TURNING WEAKLY OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY...THEN BACK WEAKLY ONSHORE ON MONDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
STILL NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED BY THE MODELS...SO
SKIES INLAND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN/VALLEYS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. WITH SLIGHT H5 HEIGHT RISES TONIGHT...THE
MARINE INVERSION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE SHALLOW...BUT STILL PLENTY
DEEP ENOUGH TO PUSH WELL INLAND TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW AND FURTHER H5 HEIGHTS RISES IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
STRATUS TO SOUTHERLY LOS ANGELES COUNTY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THE STRATUS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD REACHING UP TO
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST...AND DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST.

AS FOR WINDS...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE USUAL GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
OFFSHORE WINDS IS NEGLIBLE...SO WILL ONLY ANTICIPATE LOCALIZED
NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. ON MONDAY...THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL REESTABLISH THEMSELVES
BUT REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY SHOULD GENEARLLY BE 3-6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. ON SUNDAY...THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REALLY
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES...WITH AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S. ON MONDAY...ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS ANTICIPATED

THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ...A
BIT WARMER INLAND AND A BIT COOLER NEAR THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL FLOW LOOKS TO
PREVAIL WITH WEAK OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND WEAK ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH REGARD
TO STRATUS COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A
WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND MARINE
LAYER STRATUS IS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN FACT BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE
AND COASTAL WATERS WILL SHIFT INLAND. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST AND MID LEVEL LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT WEST AFTER 05/20Z. WEAK CAPPING MARINE
INVERSION WITH RELATIVELY ORGANIZED CLOUD FIELD WITH TOPS
APPROXIMATELY 4KFT THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED WITH TOPS DIFFERING BY MINUS .5KFT SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK
TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 05/06Z AND AFTER
05/19Z OTHERWISE RELATIVELY FLAT GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1700 IS 4474 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 5497 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 15.9 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 040 THROUGH 04/20Z. CHANCE CIGS 025 BETWEEN 05/05-
05/16Z THEN CIGS 030 05/16-05/19Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 035 THROUGH 04/20Z. CHANCE CIGS 025 BY 05/08Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...04/200 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VERY LIKELY
PERSIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND INCLUDING THE 0-
10 NM FROM PIEDRAS TO POINT SAL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.  A 20 SECOND PERIOD OR GREATER SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY GENERATE EXTRA
SURGING AND CURRENTS WHICH MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO ANCHORED BOATS.


.BEACHES...BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LONG PERIOD SWELL BEGINS TO
ARRIVE...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE
ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 041747
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1046 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE RETREAT OF MORNING CLOUDS TO SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX INDICATE
MARINE INVERSION BASED AROUND 4500 FEET WHILE VANDENBERG SHOWS DEPTH
AROUND 2500 FEET. WITH SUCH A DEEP INVERSION...A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATUS DECK HAS PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES. BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED FOR ALL. DUE TO DEEP INVERSION...SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER...TODAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATES FORECAST THINKING IN
THE SHORT TERM IS STILL ON TRACK. UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER REMAINING IN
PLACE. HOWEVER WITH SOME INCREASE IN H5 HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE
GRADEINTS...STRATUS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD WITH
LESS INLAND PENETRATION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP. NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO ANY NORTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED AND BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GREATLY LIMIT THE
STRATUS...CONFINING STRATUS TO SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. ALSO THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICABLE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES WITH
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE COAST CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR MON-TUE A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
REACH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PUSH BACK THE UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY. THERE WILL BE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
COASTAL AND A FEW COASTAL VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING
INLAND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ONCE
AGAIN AND STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE
AND COASTAL WATERS WILL SHIFT INLAND. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST AND MID LEVEL LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT WEST AFTER 05/20Z. WEAK CAPPING MARINE
INVERSION WITH RELATIVELY ORGANIZED CLOUD FIELD WITH TOPS
APPROXIMATELY 4KFT THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED WITH TOPS DIFFERING BY MINUS .5KFT SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK
TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 05/06Z AND AFTER
05/19Z OTHERWISE RELATIVELY FLAT GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1700 IS 4474 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 5497 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 15.9 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 040 THROUGH 04/20Z. CHANCE CIGS 025 BETWEEN 05/05-
05/16Z THEN CIGS 030 05/16-05/19Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 035 THROUGH 04/20Z. CHANCE CIGS 025 BY 05/08Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...04/900 AM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VERY LIKELY
PERSIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND INCLUDING THE 0-
10 NM FROM PIEDRAS TO POINT SAL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.  A 20 SECOND PERIOD OR GREATER SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY GENERATE EXTRA
SURGING AND CURRENTS WHICH MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO ANCHORED BOATS.


.BEACHES...BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LONG PERIOD SWELL BEGINS TO
ARRIVE...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE
ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 041557
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
856 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE RETREAT OF MORNING CLOUDS TO SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX INDICATE
MARINE INVERSION BASED AROUND 4500 FEET WHILE VANDENBERG SHOWS DEPTH
AROUND 2500 FEET. WITH SUCH A DEEP INVERSION...A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATUS DECK HAS PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES. BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED FOR ALL. DUE TO DEEP INVERSION...SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER...TODAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATES FORECAST THINKING IN
THE SHORT TERM IS STILL ON TRACK. UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER REMAINING IN
PLACE. HOWEVER WITH SOME INCREASE IN H5 HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE
GRADEINTS...STRATUS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD WITH
LESS INLAND PENETRATION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP. NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO ANY NORTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED AND BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GREATLY LIMIT THE
STRATUS...CONFINING STRATUS TO SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. ALSO THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICABLE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES WITH
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE COAST CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR MON-TUE A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
REACH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PUSH BACK THE UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY. THERE WILL BE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
COASTAL AND A FEW COASTAL VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING
INLAND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ONCE
AGAIN AND STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 1030Z...THEN MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS ABOUT 3500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5000 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 17C.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. IFR CONDS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL SLOPES. ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...CONDS WERE MOSTLY MVFR. EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDS
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...MAYBE THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MORE SHALLOW.

&&

.MARINE...04/900 AM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VERY LIKELY
PERSIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND INCLUDING THE 0-
10 NM FROM PIEDRAS TO POINT SAL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.  A 20 SECOND PERIOD OR GREATER SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY GENERATE EXTRA
SURGING AND CURRENTS WHICH MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO ANCHORED BOATS.


.BEACHES...BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LONG PERIOD SWELL BEGINS TO
ARRIVE...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE
ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 041557
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
856 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE RETREAT OF MORNING CLOUDS TO SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX INDICATE
MARINE INVERSION BASED AROUND 4500 FEET WHILE VANDENBERG SHOWS DEPTH
AROUND 2500 FEET. WITH SUCH A DEEP INVERSION...A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATUS DECK HAS PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES. BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED FOR ALL. DUE TO DEEP INVERSION...SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER...TODAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATES FORECAST THINKING IN
THE SHORT TERM IS STILL ON TRACK. UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER REMAINING IN
PLACE. HOWEVER WITH SOME INCREASE IN H5 HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE
GRADEINTS...STRATUS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD WITH
LESS INLAND PENETRATION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP. NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO ANY NORTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED AND BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GREATLY LIMIT THE
STRATUS...CONFINING STRATUS TO SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. ALSO THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICABLE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES WITH
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE COAST CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR MON-TUE A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
REACH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PUSH BACK THE UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY. THERE WILL BE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
COASTAL AND A FEW COASTAL VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING
INLAND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ONCE
AGAIN AND STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 1030Z...THEN MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS ABOUT 3500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5000 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 17C.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. IFR CONDS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL SLOPES. ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...CONDS WERE MOSTLY MVFR. EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDS
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...MAYBE THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MORE SHALLOW.

&&

.MARINE...04/900 AM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VERY LIKELY
PERSIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND INCLUDING THE 0-
10 NM FROM PIEDRAS TO POINT SAL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.  A 20 SECOND PERIOD OR GREATER SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY GENERATE EXTRA
SURGING AND CURRENTS WHICH MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO ANCHORED BOATS.


.BEACHES...BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LONG PERIOD SWELL BEGINS TO
ARRIVE...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE
ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 041530
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

EXCEPT FOR NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING INTO
MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX INDICATE
MARINE INVERSION BASED AROUND 4500 FEET WHILE VANDENBERG SHOWS DEPTH
AROUND 2500 FEET. WITH SUCH A DEEP INVERSION...A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATUS DECK HAS PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES. BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED FOR ALL. DUE TO DEEP INVERSION...SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER...TODAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATES FORECAST THINKING IN
THE SHORT TERM IS STILL ON TRACK. UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER REMAINING IN
PLACE. HOWEVER WITH SOME INCREASE IN H5 HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE
GRADEINTS...STRATUS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD WITH
LESS INLAND PENETRATION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP. NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO ANY NORTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED AND BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GREATLY LIMIT THE
STRATUS...CONFINING STRATUS TO SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. ALSO THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICABLE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES WITH
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE COAST CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR MON-TUE A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
REACH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PUSH BACK THE UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY. THERE WILL BE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
COASTAL AND A FEW COASTAL VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING
INLAND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ONCE
AGAIN AND STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 1030Z...THEN MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS ABOUT 3500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5000 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 17C.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. IFR CONDS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL SLOPES. ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...CONDS WERE MOSTLY MVFR. EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDS
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...MAYBE THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MORE SHALLOW.

&&

.MARINE...04/320 AM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF SCA CONDS FOR
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...PROBABLY AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A LULL SATURDAY MORNING.
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...40-50%
CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN GENERATED A SWELL THAT WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20 SECONDS.
MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY
HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS LIKELY IN SHALLOWER
WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES...AND IT IS
EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 041530
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

EXCEPT FOR NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING INTO
MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX INDICATE
MARINE INVERSION BASED AROUND 4500 FEET WHILE VANDENBERG SHOWS DEPTH
AROUND 2500 FEET. WITH SUCH A DEEP INVERSION...A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATUS DECK HAS PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES. BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED FOR ALL. DUE TO DEEP INVERSION...SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER...TODAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATES FORECAST THINKING IN
THE SHORT TERM IS STILL ON TRACK. UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER REMAINING IN
PLACE. HOWEVER WITH SOME INCREASE IN H5 HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE
GRADEINTS...STRATUS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD WITH
LESS INLAND PENETRATION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP. NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO ANY NORTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED AND BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GREATLY LIMIT THE
STRATUS...CONFINING STRATUS TO SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. ALSO THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICABLE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES WITH
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE COAST CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR MON-TUE A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
REACH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PUSH BACK THE UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY. THERE WILL BE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
COASTAL AND A FEW COASTAL VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING
INLAND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ONCE
AGAIN AND STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 1030Z...THEN MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS ABOUT 3500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5000 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 17C.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. IFR CONDS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL SLOPES. ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...CONDS WERE MOSTLY MVFR. EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDS
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...MAYBE THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MORE SHALLOW.

&&

.MARINE...04/320 AM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF SCA CONDS FOR
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...PROBABLY AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A LULL SATURDAY MORNING.
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...40-50%
CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN GENERATED A SWELL THAT WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20 SECONDS.
MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY
HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS LIKELY IN SHALLOWER
WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES...AND IT IS
EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 041530
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

EXCEPT FOR NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING INTO
MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX INDICATE
MARINE INVERSION BASED AROUND 4500 FEET WHILE VANDENBERG SHOWS DEPTH
AROUND 2500 FEET. WITH SUCH A DEEP INVERSION...A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATUS DECK HAS PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES. BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED FOR ALL. DUE TO DEEP INVERSION...SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER...TODAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATES FORECAST THINKING IN
THE SHORT TERM IS STILL ON TRACK. UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER REMAINING IN
PLACE. HOWEVER WITH SOME INCREASE IN H5 HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE
GRADEINTS...STRATUS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD WITH
LESS INLAND PENETRATION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP. NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO ANY NORTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED AND BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GREATLY LIMIT THE
STRATUS...CONFINING STRATUS TO SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. ALSO THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICABLE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES WITH
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE COAST CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR MON-TUE A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
REACH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PUSH BACK THE UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY. THERE WILL BE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
COASTAL AND A FEW COASTAL VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING
INLAND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ONCE
AGAIN AND STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 1030Z...THEN MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS ABOUT 3500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5000 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 17C.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. IFR CONDS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL SLOPES. ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...CONDS WERE MOSTLY MVFR. EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDS
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...MAYBE THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MORE SHALLOW.

&&

.MARINE...04/320 AM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF SCA CONDS FOR
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...PROBABLY AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A LULL SATURDAY MORNING.
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...40-50%
CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN GENERATED A SWELL THAT WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20 SECONDS.
MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY
HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS LIKELY IN SHALLOWER
WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES...AND IT IS
EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 041530
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

EXCEPT FOR NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING INTO
MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX INDICATE
MARINE INVERSION BASED AROUND 4500 FEET WHILE VANDENBERG SHOWS DEPTH
AROUND 2500 FEET. WITH SUCH A DEEP INVERSION...A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATUS DECK HAS PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES. BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED FOR ALL. DUE TO DEEP INVERSION...SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER...TODAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATES FORECAST THINKING IN
THE SHORT TERM IS STILL ON TRACK. UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER REMAINING IN
PLACE. HOWEVER WITH SOME INCREASE IN H5 HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE
GRADEINTS...STRATUS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD WITH
LESS INLAND PENETRATION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP. NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO ANY NORTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED AND BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GREATLY LIMIT THE
STRATUS...CONFINING STRATUS TO SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. ALSO THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICABLE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES WITH
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE COAST CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR MON-TUE A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
REACH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PUSH BACK THE UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY. THERE WILL BE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
COASTAL AND A FEW COASTAL VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING
INLAND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ONCE
AGAIN AND STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 1030Z...THEN MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS ABOUT 3500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5000 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 17C.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. IFR CONDS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL SLOPES. ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...CONDS WERE MOSTLY MVFR. EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDS
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...MAYBE THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MORE SHALLOW.

&&

.MARINE...04/320 AM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF SCA CONDS FOR
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...PROBABLY AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A LULL SATURDAY MORNING.
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...40-50%
CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN GENERATED A SWELL THAT WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20 SECONDS.
MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY
HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS LIKELY IN SHALLOWER
WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES...AND IT IS
EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 041229
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

EXCEPT FOR NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING INTO
MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING INDICATED THE MARINE
LAYER WAS AROUND 3500 FT DEEP. LOW CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO FILL IN
NICELY ACROSS L.A. AND BACKDOORING INTO THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS.
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY SOUTH COAST WILL
LIKELY FILL IN BEFORE SUNRISE.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE LINGER ACROSS CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. TODAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS VALLEYS. HIGHS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WILL ALSO BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...MAINLY DUE TO THE WARM WATERS THAT CONTINUE TO
PERSIST OFF THE COAST. A DEEP MOIST LAYER OR MARINE LAYER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
NE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY AND ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS
WILL RISE A BIT. ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER AS
WELL. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPS...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

BY SUNDAY A WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. THIS WILL BRING WEAK OFFSHORE MORNING WINDS TO LA/VTU
COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND WEST INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY STRATUS TO MAINLY SOUTHERN
LA COUNTY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY STRONG WINDS WITH THIS SHORT
OFFSHORE SPURT IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE L.A. BASIN AND VENTURA
COAST. BETTER OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST SO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 80S ARE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR MON-TUE A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
REACH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PUSH BACK THE UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY. THERE WILL BE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
COASTAL AND A FEW COASTAL VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING
INLAND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ONCE
AGAIN AND STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 1030Z...THEN MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS ABOUT 3500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5000 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 17C.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. IFR CONDS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL SLOPES. ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...CONDS WERE MOSTLY MVFR. EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDS
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...MAYBE THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MORE SHALLOW.

&&

.MARINE...04/320 AM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF SCA CONDS FOR
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...PROBABLY AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A LULL SATURDAY MORNING.
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...40-50%
CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN GENERATED A SWELL THAT WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20 SECONDS.
MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY
HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS LIKELY IN SHALLOWER
WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES...AND IT IS
EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 041229
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

EXCEPT FOR NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING INTO
MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING INDICATED THE MARINE
LAYER WAS AROUND 3500 FT DEEP. LOW CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO FILL IN
NICELY ACROSS L.A. AND BACKDOORING INTO THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS.
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY SOUTH COAST WILL
LIKELY FILL IN BEFORE SUNRISE.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE LINGER ACROSS CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. TODAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS VALLEYS. HIGHS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WILL ALSO BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...MAINLY DUE TO THE WARM WATERS THAT CONTINUE TO
PERSIST OFF THE COAST. A DEEP MOIST LAYER OR MARINE LAYER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
NE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY AND ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS
WILL RISE A BIT. ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER AS
WELL. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPS...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

BY SUNDAY A WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. THIS WILL BRING WEAK OFFSHORE MORNING WINDS TO LA/VTU
COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND WEST INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY STRATUS TO MAINLY SOUTHERN
LA COUNTY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY STRONG WINDS WITH THIS SHORT
OFFSHORE SPURT IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE L.A. BASIN AND VENTURA
COAST. BETTER OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST SO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 80S ARE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR MON-TUE A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
REACH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PUSH BACK THE UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY. THERE WILL BE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
COASTAL AND A FEW COASTAL VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING
INLAND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ONCE
AGAIN AND STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 1030Z...THEN MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS ABOUT 3500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5000 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 17C.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. IFR CONDS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL SLOPES. ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...CONDS WERE MOSTLY MVFR. EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDS
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...MAYBE THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MORE SHALLOW.

&&

.MARINE...04/320 AM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF SCA CONDS FOR
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...PROBABLY AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A LULL SATURDAY MORNING.
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...40-50%
CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN GENERATED A SWELL THAT WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20 SECONDS.
MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY
HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS LIKELY IN SHALLOWER
WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES...AND IT IS
EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 041229
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

EXCEPT FOR NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING INTO
MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING INDICATED THE MARINE
LAYER WAS AROUND 3500 FT DEEP. LOW CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO FILL IN
NICELY ACROSS L.A. AND BACKDOORING INTO THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS.
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY SOUTH COAST WILL
LIKELY FILL IN BEFORE SUNRISE.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE LINGER ACROSS CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. TODAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS VALLEYS. HIGHS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WILL ALSO BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...MAINLY DUE TO THE WARM WATERS THAT CONTINUE TO
PERSIST OFF THE COAST. A DEEP MOIST LAYER OR MARINE LAYER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
NE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY AND ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS
WILL RISE A BIT. ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER AS
WELL. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPS...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

BY SUNDAY A WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. THIS WILL BRING WEAK OFFSHORE MORNING WINDS TO LA/VTU
COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND WEST INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY STRATUS TO MAINLY SOUTHERN
LA COUNTY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY STRONG WINDS WITH THIS SHORT
OFFSHORE SPURT IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE L.A. BASIN AND VENTURA
COAST. BETTER OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST SO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 80S ARE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR MON-TUE A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
REACH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PUSH BACK THE UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY. THERE WILL BE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
COASTAL AND A FEW COASTAL VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING
INLAND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ONCE
AGAIN AND STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 1030Z...THEN MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS ABOUT 3500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5000 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 17C.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. IFR CONDS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL SLOPES. ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...CONDS WERE MOSTLY MVFR. EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDS
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...MAYBE THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MORE SHALLOW.

&&

.MARINE...04/320 AM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF SCA CONDS FOR
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...PROBABLY AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A LULL SATURDAY MORNING.
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...40-50%
CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN GENERATED A SWELL THAT WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20 SECONDS.
MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY
HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS LIKELY IN SHALLOWER
WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES...AND IT IS
EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 041050
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

EXCEPT FOR NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING INTO
MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING INDICATED THE MARINE
LAYER WAS AROUND 3500 FT DEEP. LOW CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO FILL IN
NICELY ACROSS L.A. AND BACKDOORING INTO THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS.
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY SOUTH COAST WILL
LIKELY FILL IN BEFORE SUNRISE.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE LINGER ACROSS CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. TODAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS VALLEYS. HIGHS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WILL ALSO BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...MAINLY DUE TO THE WARM WATERS THAT CONTINUE TO
PERSIST OFF THE COAST. A DEEP MOIST LAYER OR MARINE LAYER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
NE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY AND ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS
WILL RISE A BIT. ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER AS
WELL. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPS...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

BY SUNDAY A WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. THIS WILL BRING WEAK OFFSHORE MORNING WINDS TO LA/VTU
COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND WEST INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY STRATUS TO MAINLY SOUTHERN
LA COUNTY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY STRONG WINDS WITH THIS SHORT
OFFSHORE SPURT IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE L.A. BASIN AND VENTURA
COAST. BETTER OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST SO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 80S ARE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR MON-TUE A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
REACH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PUSH BACK THE UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY. THERE WILL BE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
COASTAL AND A FEW COASTAL VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING
INLAND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ONCE
AGAIN AND STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 1030Z...THEN MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS ABOUT 3500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5000 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 17C.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. IFR CONDS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL SLOPES. ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...CONDS WERE MOSTLY MVFR. EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDS
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...MAYBE THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MORE SHALLOW.

&&

.MARINE...04/320 AM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF SCA CONDS FOR
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...EXCEPT THERE WILL BE A LULL
LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6
TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE NEAR-
SHORE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...50% CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED.

STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN GENERATED A SWELL THAT WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20 SECONDS.
MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY
HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS LIKELY IN SHALLOWER
WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES...AND IT IS
EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 041050
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

EXCEPT FOR NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING INTO
MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING INDICATED THE MARINE
LAYER WAS AROUND 3500 FT DEEP. LOW CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO FILL IN
NICELY ACROSS L.A. AND BACKDOORING INTO THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS.
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY SOUTH COAST WILL
LIKELY FILL IN BEFORE SUNRISE.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE LINGER ACROSS CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. TODAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS VALLEYS. HIGHS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WILL ALSO BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...MAINLY DUE TO THE WARM WATERS THAT CONTINUE TO
PERSIST OFF THE COAST. A DEEP MOIST LAYER OR MARINE LAYER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
NE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY AND ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS
WILL RISE A BIT. ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER AS
WELL. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPS...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

BY SUNDAY A WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. THIS WILL BRING WEAK OFFSHORE MORNING WINDS TO LA/VTU
COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND WEST INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY STRATUS TO MAINLY SOUTHERN
LA COUNTY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY STRONG WINDS WITH THIS SHORT
OFFSHORE SPURT IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE L.A. BASIN AND VENTURA
COAST. BETTER OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST SO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 80S ARE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR MON-TUE A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
REACH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PUSH BACK THE UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY. THERE WILL BE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
COASTAL AND A FEW COASTAL VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING
INLAND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ONCE
AGAIN AND STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 1030Z...THEN MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS ABOUT 3500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5000 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 17C.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. IFR CONDS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL SLOPES. ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...CONDS WERE MOSTLY MVFR. EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDS
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...MAYBE THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MORE SHALLOW.

&&

.MARINE...04/320 AM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF SCA CONDS FOR
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...EXCEPT THERE WILL BE A LULL
LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6
TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE NEAR-
SHORE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...50% CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED.

STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN GENERATED A SWELL THAT WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20 SECONDS.
MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY
HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS LIKELY IN SHALLOWER
WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES...AND IT IS
EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 040950
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
251 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

EXCEPT FOR NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING INTO
MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING INDICATED THE MARINE
LAYER WAS AROUND 3500 FT DEEP. THE INVERSION WAS NOT TERRIBLY
STRONG. THEREFORE FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY WAS SHOWING MORE SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS LA/VTU COUNTY COASTS TO FOOTHILLS. THERE IS A WEAK
EDDY CIRCULATION SO STILL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN ACROSS MOST AREAS AND INTO SRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNRISE.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. TODAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS
VALLEYS. WITH THE WARM COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE COAST...EXPECT HIGHS
TO ALSO BE IN THE 70S. A DEEP MOIST LAYER OR MARINE LAYER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
NE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY AND ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS
WILL RISE A BIT. ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER AS
WELL. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPS...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

BY SUNDAY A WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. THIS WILL BRING WEAK OFFSHORE MORNING WINDS TO LA/VTU
COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND WEST INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY STRATUS TO MAINLY SOUTHERN
LA COUNTY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY STRONG WINDS WITH THIS SHORT
OFFSHORE SPURT IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE L.A. BASIN AND VENTURA
COAST. BETTER OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST SO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 80S ARE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR MON-TUE A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
REACH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PUSH BACK THE UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY. THERE WILL BE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
COASTAL AND A FEW COASTAL VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING
INLAND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ONCE
AGAIN AND STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...03/900 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF SCA CONDS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF LULL MAY
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6
TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE NEAR-
SHORE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...50% CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED.

STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN GENERATED A SWELL THAT WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20 SECONDS.
MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY
HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS LIKELY IN SHALLOWER
WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES...AND IT IS
EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 040950
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
251 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

EXCEPT FOR NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING INTO
MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING INDICATED THE MARINE
LAYER WAS AROUND 3500 FT DEEP. THE INVERSION WAS NOT TERRIBLY
STRONG. THEREFORE FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY WAS SHOWING MORE SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS LA/VTU COUNTY COASTS TO FOOTHILLS. THERE IS A WEAK
EDDY CIRCULATION SO STILL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN ACROSS MOST AREAS AND INTO SRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNRISE.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. TODAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS
VALLEYS. WITH THE WARM COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE COAST...EXPECT HIGHS
TO ALSO BE IN THE 70S. A DEEP MOIST LAYER OR MARINE LAYER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
NE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY AND ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS
WILL RISE A BIT. ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER AS
WELL. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPS...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

BY SUNDAY A WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. THIS WILL BRING WEAK OFFSHORE MORNING WINDS TO LA/VTU
COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND WEST INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY STRATUS TO MAINLY SOUTHERN
LA COUNTY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY STRONG WINDS WITH THIS SHORT
OFFSHORE SPURT IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE L.A. BASIN AND VENTURA
COAST. BETTER OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST SO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 80S ARE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR MON-TUE A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
REACH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PUSH BACK THE UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY. THERE WILL BE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
COASTAL AND A FEW COASTAL VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING
INLAND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ONCE
AGAIN AND STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...03/900 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF SCA CONDS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF LULL MAY
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6
TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE NEAR-
SHORE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...50% CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED.

STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN GENERATED A SWELL THAT WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20 SECONDS.
MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY
HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS LIKELY IN SHALLOWER
WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES...AND IT IS
EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 040404
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
905 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR SKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK EXCEPT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND SOME VALLEYS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THEN
WARM TO AROUND NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX THIS
EVENING WAS AROUND 2900 FEET DEEP...AND SHOULD DEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT
THANKS TO AN EDDY DEVELOPING OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
WERE NOTED FROM CATALINA ISLAND TO NEAR PALOS VERDES...AND ALONG
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND
OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT AND ALONG THE COAST THRU TONIGHT AND MOVE
INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS AND LOWER COASTAL SLOPES LATER TONIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THRU THE NIGHT. LINGERING GUSTY S TO W WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
THERE WERE ALSO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS ALONG THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WHICH WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA THRU FRI NIGHT
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON SAT. MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS
SHOULD THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

DRY AND GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION FRI THRU SAT...WITH DRY BUT WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUN
AS GRADIENTS TREND OFFSHORE. A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL
KEEP VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. THERE SHOULD BE A SHALLOWER MARINE INVERSION BY
SAT NIGHT...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VLY SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THRU SUN. BREEZY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL COAST...AND FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY THRU
FRI...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER WINDS FOR SAT. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND INTERIOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING...WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SUN AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS FRI THRU
SAT...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE WARMER TEMPS FOR SUN...WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS...EXCEPT
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL TRY TO MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...IT
LOOKS LIKE WEAK DIURNAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WEAKLY OFFSHORE AT NIGHT
AND ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL.
MONDAY/TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE
MARINE INVERSION WILL LIKELY SHRINK A BIT AND REMAIN CONFINED
GENERALLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THE LESS MARINE INFLUENCE...THE
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SHOULD EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0005Z.

AT 2309Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2500 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUD AND
MOSTLY IFR/MVFR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AT ALL COASTAL AND VLY AIRFIELDS
WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO LATE FRI MORNING TO EARLY FRI AFTERNOON.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW
CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KWJF AND
KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI. GUSTY W TO SW WINDS AT THESE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSBP AND KSMX EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
FRI AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 06Z AND PERSIST THRU 20Z FRI WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AGAIN FRI EVENING.
THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 06Z AND PERSIST THRU 19Z FRI WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE
LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...03/900 PM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF SCA CONDS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF LULL MAY
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6
TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE NEAR-
SHORE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...50% CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED.

STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN GENERATED A SWELL THAT WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20 SECONDS.
MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY
HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS LIKELY IN SHALLOWER
WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES...AND IT IS
EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RAT
AVIATION..SIRARD
MARINE/BEACHES...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 040404
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
905 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR SKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK EXCEPT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND SOME VALLEYS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THEN
WARM TO AROUND NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX THIS
EVENING WAS AROUND 2900 FEET DEEP...AND SHOULD DEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT
THANKS TO AN EDDY DEVELOPING OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
WERE NOTED FROM CATALINA ISLAND TO NEAR PALOS VERDES...AND ALONG
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND
OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT AND ALONG THE COAST THRU TONIGHT AND MOVE
INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS AND LOWER COASTAL SLOPES LATER TONIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THRU THE NIGHT. LINGERING GUSTY S TO W WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
THERE WERE ALSO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS ALONG THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WHICH WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA THRU FRI NIGHT
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON SAT. MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS
SHOULD THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

DRY AND GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION FRI THRU SAT...WITH DRY BUT WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUN
AS GRADIENTS TREND OFFSHORE. A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL
KEEP VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. THERE SHOULD BE A SHALLOWER MARINE INVERSION BY
SAT NIGHT...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VLY SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THRU SUN. BREEZY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL COAST...AND FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY THRU
FRI...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER WINDS FOR SAT. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND INTERIOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING...WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SUN AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS FRI THRU
SAT...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE WARMER TEMPS FOR SUN...WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS...EXCEPT
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL TRY TO MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...IT
LOOKS LIKE WEAK DIURNAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WEAKLY OFFSHORE AT NIGHT
AND ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL.
MONDAY/TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE
MARINE INVERSION WILL LIKELY SHRINK A BIT AND REMAIN CONFINED
GENERALLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THE LESS MARINE INFLUENCE...THE
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SHOULD EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0005Z.

AT 2309Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2500 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUD AND
MOSTLY IFR/MVFR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AT ALL COASTAL AND VLY AIRFIELDS
WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO LATE FRI MORNING TO EARLY FRI AFTERNOON.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW
CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KWJF AND
KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI. GUSTY W TO SW WINDS AT THESE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSBP AND KSMX EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
FRI AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 06Z AND PERSIST THRU 20Z FRI WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AGAIN FRI EVENING.
THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 06Z AND PERSIST THRU 19Z FRI WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE
LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...03/900 PM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF SCA CONDS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF LULL MAY
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6
TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE NEAR-
SHORE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...50% CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED.

STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN GENERATED A SWELL THAT WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20 SECONDS.
MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY
HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS LIKELY IN SHALLOWER
WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES...AND IT IS
EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RAT
AVIATION..SIRARD
MARINE/BEACHES...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 040404
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
905 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR SKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK EXCEPT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND SOME VALLEYS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THEN
WARM TO AROUND NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX THIS
EVENING WAS AROUND 2900 FEET DEEP...AND SHOULD DEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT
THANKS TO AN EDDY DEVELOPING OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
WERE NOTED FROM CATALINA ISLAND TO NEAR PALOS VERDES...AND ALONG
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND
OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT AND ALONG THE COAST THRU TONIGHT AND MOVE
INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS AND LOWER COASTAL SLOPES LATER TONIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THRU THE NIGHT. LINGERING GUSTY S TO W WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
THERE WERE ALSO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS ALONG THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WHICH WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA THRU FRI NIGHT
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON SAT. MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS
SHOULD THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

DRY AND GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION FRI THRU SAT...WITH DRY BUT WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUN
AS GRADIENTS TREND OFFSHORE. A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL
KEEP VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. THERE SHOULD BE A SHALLOWER MARINE INVERSION BY
SAT NIGHT...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VLY SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THRU SUN. BREEZY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL COAST...AND FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY THRU
FRI...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER WINDS FOR SAT. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND INTERIOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING...WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SUN AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS FRI THRU
SAT...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE WARMER TEMPS FOR SUN...WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS...EXCEPT
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL TRY TO MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...IT
LOOKS LIKE WEAK DIURNAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WEAKLY OFFSHORE AT NIGHT
AND ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL.
MONDAY/TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE
MARINE INVERSION WILL LIKELY SHRINK A BIT AND REMAIN CONFINED
GENERALLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THE LESS MARINE INFLUENCE...THE
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SHOULD EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0005Z.

AT 2309Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2500 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUD AND
MOSTLY IFR/MVFR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AT ALL COASTAL AND VLY AIRFIELDS
WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO LATE FRI MORNING TO EARLY FRI AFTERNOON.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW
CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KWJF AND
KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI. GUSTY W TO SW WINDS AT THESE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSBP AND KSMX EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
FRI AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 06Z AND PERSIST THRU 20Z FRI WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AGAIN FRI EVENING.
THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 06Z AND PERSIST THRU 19Z FRI WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE
LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...03/900 PM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF SCA CONDS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF LULL MAY
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6
TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE NEAR-
SHORE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...50% CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED.

STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN GENERATED A SWELL THAT WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20 SECONDS.
MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY
HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS LIKELY IN SHALLOWER
WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES...AND IT IS
EXPECTED THAT A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE ISSUED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RAT
AVIATION..SIRARD
MARINE/BEACHES...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 040008 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
510 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BY NEXT FRIDAY. MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS FRIDAY
WILL RETREAT TO SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...THEN INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
ON SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NOTHING TOO EXCITING EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CLOUD WISE...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY NOTICEABLE
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF
ANY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL
REMAIN A CHALLENGE. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING H5
HEIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY...MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN RATHER DEEP
AND STRATUS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...SO ANTICIPATE LESS WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS STRATUS-FREE...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION
POTENTIALLY THE LA COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY WHERE SOME
STRATUS/FOG COULD DEVELOP.

AS FOR WINDS...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE
BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS MINIMAL. SO...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCAL
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL PLACES...BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE SHORT
TERM. ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT WITH LESS MARINE
INFLUENCE AND WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT A VERY
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE JUMP DUE TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. MOST AREAS
AWAY FROM THE COAST SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL TRY TO MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...IT
LOOKS LIKE WEAK DIURNAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WEAKLY OFFSHORE AT NIGHT
AND ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL.
MONDAY/TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE
MARINE INVERSION WILL LIKELY SHRINK A BIT AND REMAIN CONFINED
GENERALLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THE LESS MARINE INFLUENCE...THE
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SHOULD EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0005Z.

AT 2309Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2500 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUD AND
MOSTLY IFR/MVFR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AT ALL COASTAL AND VLY AIRFIELDS
WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO LATE FRI MORNING TO EARLY FRI AFTERNOON.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW
CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KWJF AND
KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI. GUSTY W TO SW WINDS AT THESE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSBP AND KSMX EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
FRI AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 06Z AND PERSIST THRU 20Z FRI WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AGAIN FRI EVENING.
THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 06Z AND PERSIST THRU 19Z FRI WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE
LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...03/200 PM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INNER
WATERS AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL.

MEANWHILE... STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A
SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
OVER THE WEEKEND.  SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS
NEAR 20 SECONDS.  MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS
LIKELY IN SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION..SIRARD
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 040008 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
510 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BY NEXT FRIDAY. MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS FRIDAY
WILL RETREAT TO SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...THEN INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
ON SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NOTHING TOO EXCITING EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CLOUD WISE...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY NOTICEABLE
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF
ANY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL
REMAIN A CHALLENGE. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING H5
HEIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY...MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN RATHER DEEP
AND STRATUS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...SO ANTICIPATE LESS WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS STRATUS-FREE...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION
POTENTIALLY THE LA COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY WHERE SOME
STRATUS/FOG COULD DEVELOP.

AS FOR WINDS...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE
BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS MINIMAL. SO...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCAL
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL PLACES...BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE SHORT
TERM. ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT WITH LESS MARINE
INFLUENCE AND WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT A VERY
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE JUMP DUE TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. MOST AREAS
AWAY FROM THE COAST SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL TRY TO MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...IT
LOOKS LIKE WEAK DIURNAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WEAKLY OFFSHORE AT NIGHT
AND ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL.
MONDAY/TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE
MARINE INVERSION WILL LIKELY SHRINK A BIT AND REMAIN CONFINED
GENERALLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THE LESS MARINE INFLUENCE...THE
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SHOULD EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0005Z.

AT 2309Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2500 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUD AND
MOSTLY IFR/MVFR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AT ALL COASTAL AND VLY AIRFIELDS
WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO LATE FRI MORNING TO EARLY FRI AFTERNOON.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW
CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KWJF AND
KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI. GUSTY W TO SW WINDS AT THESE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSBP AND KSMX EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
FRI AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 06Z AND PERSIST THRU 20Z FRI WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AGAIN FRI EVENING.
THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 06Z AND PERSIST THRU 19Z FRI WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE
LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...03/200 PM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INNER
WATERS AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL.

MEANWHILE... STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A
SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
OVER THE WEEKEND.  SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS
NEAR 20 SECONDS.  MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS
LIKELY IN SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION..SIRARD
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 032113
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
210 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

...MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BY NEXT FRIDAY. MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS FRIDAY
WILL RETREAT TO SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...THEN INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
ON SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NOTHING TOO EXCITING EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CLOUD WISE...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY NOTICEABLE
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF
ANY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL
REMAIN A CHALLENGE. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING H5
HEIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY...MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN RATHER DEEP
AND STRATUS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...SO ANTICIPATE LESS WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS STRATUS-FREE...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION
POTENTIALLY THE LA COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY WHERE SOME
STRATUS/FOG COULD DEVELOP.

AS FOR WINDS...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE
BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS MINIMAL. SO...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCAL
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL PLACES...BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE SHORT
TERM. ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT WITH LESS MARINE
INFLUENCE AND WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT A VERY
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE JUMP DUE TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. MOST AREAS
AWAY FROM THE COAST SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL TRY TO MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...IT
LOOKS LIKE WEAK DIURNAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WEAKLY OFFSHORE AT NIGHT
AND ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL.
MONDAY/TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE
MARINE INVERSION WILL LIKELY SHRINK A BIT AND REMAIN CONFINED
GENERALLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THE LESS MARINE INFLUENCE...THE
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SHOULD EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z.

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS ABOUT 3000 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP
WAS NEAR 6350 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS ALONG THE COAST AND
IN ADJACENT VALLEYS AND HIGH CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE.  CIGS CONTINUE AT
A FEW LOCATIONS BUT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR BY 20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS
RETURN TONIGHT AS EARLY AS 03Z IN SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS AND AS LATE
AS 14Z AT KPRB BUT ALL COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE A RETURN OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AT CENTRAL COAST SITES AND PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS AT THE OTHERS WITH A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS
TODAY.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LAX... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  CIGS CONTINUE
ATTM BUT SHOULD GO VFR 18Z-20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND
05Z WITH MVFR CIGS FOR KLAX.  A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS
TODAY.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

BUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  CIGS CONTINUE ATTM BUT
SHOULD GO VFR 18Z-20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND 06Z WITH
MVFR CIGS FOR KBUR.  A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS TODAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...03/200 PM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INNER
WATERS AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL.

MEANWHILE... STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A
SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
OVER THE WEEKEND.  SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS
NEAR 20 SECONDS.  MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS
LIKELY IN SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION..KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 032113
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
210 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

...MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BY NEXT FRIDAY. MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS FRIDAY
WILL RETREAT TO SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...THEN INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
ON SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NOTHING TOO EXCITING EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CLOUD WISE...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY NOTICEABLE
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF
ANY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL
REMAIN A CHALLENGE. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING H5
HEIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY...MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN RATHER DEEP
AND STRATUS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...SO ANTICIPATE LESS WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS STRATUS-FREE...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION
POTENTIALLY THE LA COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY WHERE SOME
STRATUS/FOG COULD DEVELOP.

AS FOR WINDS...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE
BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS MINIMAL. SO...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCAL
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL PLACES...BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE SHORT
TERM. ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT WITH LESS MARINE
INFLUENCE AND WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT A VERY
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE JUMP DUE TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. MOST AREAS
AWAY FROM THE COAST SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL TRY TO MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...IT
LOOKS LIKE WEAK DIURNAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WEAKLY OFFSHORE AT NIGHT
AND ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL.
MONDAY/TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE
MARINE INVERSION WILL LIKELY SHRINK A BIT AND REMAIN CONFINED
GENERALLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THE LESS MARINE INFLUENCE...THE
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SHOULD EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z.

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS ABOUT 3000 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP
WAS NEAR 6350 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS ALONG THE COAST AND
IN ADJACENT VALLEYS AND HIGH CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE.  CIGS CONTINUE AT
A FEW LOCATIONS BUT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR BY 20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS
RETURN TONIGHT AS EARLY AS 03Z IN SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS AND AS LATE
AS 14Z AT KPRB BUT ALL COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE A RETURN OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AT CENTRAL COAST SITES AND PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS AT THE OTHERS WITH A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS
TODAY.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LAX... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  CIGS CONTINUE
ATTM BUT SHOULD GO VFR 18Z-20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND
05Z WITH MVFR CIGS FOR KLAX.  A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS
TODAY.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

BUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  CIGS CONTINUE ATTM BUT
SHOULD GO VFR 18Z-20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND 06Z WITH
MVFR CIGS FOR KBUR.  A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS TODAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...03/200 PM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INNER
WATERS AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL.

MEANWHILE... STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A
SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
OVER THE WEEKEND.  SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS
NEAR 20 SECONDS.  MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS
LIKELY IN SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION..KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 032113
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
210 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

...MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BY NEXT FRIDAY. MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS FRIDAY
WILL RETREAT TO SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...THEN INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
ON SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NOTHING TOO EXCITING EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CLOUD WISE...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY NOTICEABLE
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF
ANY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL
REMAIN A CHALLENGE. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING H5
HEIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY...MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN RATHER DEEP
AND STRATUS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...SO ANTICIPATE LESS WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS STRATUS-FREE...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION
POTENTIALLY THE LA COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY WHERE SOME
STRATUS/FOG COULD DEVELOP.

AS FOR WINDS...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE
BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS MINIMAL. SO...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCAL
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL PLACES...BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE SHORT
TERM. ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT WITH LESS MARINE
INFLUENCE AND WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT A VERY
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE JUMP DUE TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. MOST AREAS
AWAY FROM THE COAST SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL TRY TO MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...IT
LOOKS LIKE WEAK DIURNAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WEAKLY OFFSHORE AT NIGHT
AND ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL.
MONDAY/TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE
MARINE INVERSION WILL LIKELY SHRINK A BIT AND REMAIN CONFINED
GENERALLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THE LESS MARINE INFLUENCE...THE
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SHOULD EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z.

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS ABOUT 3000 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP
WAS NEAR 6350 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS ALONG THE COAST AND
IN ADJACENT VALLEYS AND HIGH CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE.  CIGS CONTINUE AT
A FEW LOCATIONS BUT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR BY 20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS
RETURN TONIGHT AS EARLY AS 03Z IN SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS AND AS LATE
AS 14Z AT KPRB BUT ALL COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE A RETURN OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AT CENTRAL COAST SITES AND PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS AT THE OTHERS WITH A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS
TODAY.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LAX... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  CIGS CONTINUE
ATTM BUT SHOULD GO VFR 18Z-20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND
05Z WITH MVFR CIGS FOR KLAX.  A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS
TODAY.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

BUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  CIGS CONTINUE ATTM BUT
SHOULD GO VFR 18Z-20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND 06Z WITH
MVFR CIGS FOR KBUR.  A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS TODAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...03/200 PM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INNER
WATERS AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL.

MEANWHILE... STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A
SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
OVER THE WEEKEND.  SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS
NEAR 20 SECONDS.  MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS
LIKELY IN SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION..KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 032059
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BY NEXT FRIDAY. MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS FRIDAY
WILL RETREAT TO SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...THEN INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
ON SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NOTHING TOO EXCITING EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CLOUD WISE...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY NOTICEABLE
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF
ANY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL
REMAIN A CHALLENGE. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING H5
HEIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY...MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN RATHER DEEP
AND STRATUS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...SO ANTICIPATE LESS WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS STRATUS-FREE...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION
POTENTIALLY THE LA COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY WHERE SOME
STRATUS/FOG COULD DEVELOP.

AS FOR WINDS...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE
BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS MINIMAL. SO...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCAL
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL PLACES...BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE SHORT
TERM. ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT WITH LESS MARINE
INFLUENCE AND WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT A VERY
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE JUMP DUE TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. MOST AREAS
AWAY FROM THE COAST SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL TRY TO MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...IT
LOOKS LIKE WEAK DIURNAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WEAKLY OFFSHORE AT NIGHT
AND ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL.
MONDAY/TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE
MARINE INVERSION WILL LIKELY SHRINK A BIT AND REMAIN CONFINED
GENERALLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THE LESS MARINE INFLUENCE...THE
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SHOULD EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z.

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS ABOUT 3000 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP
WAS NEAR 6350 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS ALONG THE COAST AND
IN ADJACENT VALLEYS AND HIGH CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE.  CIGS CONTINUE AT
A FEW LOCATIONS BUT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR BY 20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS
RETURN TONIGHT AS EARLY AS 03Z IN SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS AND AS LATE
AS 14Z AT KPRB BUT ALL COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE A RETURN OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AT CENTRAL COAST SITES AND PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS AT THE OTHERS WITH A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS
TODAY.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LAX... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  CIGS CONTINUE
ATTM BUT SHOULD GO VFR 18Z-20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND
05Z WITH MVFR CIGS FOR KLAX.  A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS
TODAY.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

BUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  CIGS CONTINUE ATTM BUT
SHOULD GO VFR 18Z-20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND 06Z WITH
MVFR CIGS FOR KBUR.  A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS TODAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...03/830 AM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER
WATERS. THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INNER WATERS AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL.

MEANWHILE... STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A
SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
OVER THE WEEKEND.  SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS
NEAR 20 SECONDS.  MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS
LIKELY IN SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION..KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 032059
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BY NEXT FRIDAY. MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS FRIDAY
WILL RETREAT TO SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...THEN INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
ON SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NOTHING TOO EXCITING EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CLOUD WISE...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY NOTICEABLE
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF
ANY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL
REMAIN A CHALLENGE. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING H5
HEIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY...MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN RATHER DEEP
AND STRATUS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...SO ANTICIPATE LESS WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS STRATUS-FREE...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION
POTENTIALLY THE LA COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY WHERE SOME
STRATUS/FOG COULD DEVELOP.

AS FOR WINDS...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE
BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS MINIMAL. SO...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCAL
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL PLACES...BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE SHORT
TERM. ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT WITH LESS MARINE
INFLUENCE AND WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT A VERY
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE JUMP DUE TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. MOST AREAS
AWAY FROM THE COAST SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...OVERALL...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN A RIDGE WILL TRY TO MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...IT
LOOKS LIKE WEAK DIURNAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WEAKLY OFFSHORE AT NIGHT
AND ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL.
MONDAY/TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE
MARINE INVERSION WILL LIKELY SHRINK A BIT AND REMAIN CONFINED
GENERALLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THE LESS MARINE INFLUENCE...THE
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SHOULD EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z.

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS ABOUT 3000 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP
WAS NEAR 6350 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS ALONG THE COAST AND
IN ADJACENT VALLEYS AND HIGH CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE.  CIGS CONTINUE AT
A FEW LOCATIONS BUT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR BY 20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS
RETURN TONIGHT AS EARLY AS 03Z IN SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS AND AS LATE
AS 14Z AT KPRB BUT ALL COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE A RETURN OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AT CENTRAL COAST SITES AND PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS AT THE OTHERS WITH A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS
TODAY.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LAX... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  CIGS CONTINUE
ATTM BUT SHOULD GO VFR 18Z-20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND
05Z WITH MVFR CIGS FOR KLAX.  A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS
TODAY.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

BUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  CIGS CONTINUE ATTM BUT
SHOULD GO VFR 18Z-20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND 06Z WITH
MVFR CIGS FOR KBUR.  A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS TODAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...03/830 AM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER
WATERS. THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INNER WATERS AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL.

MEANWHILE... STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A
SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
OVER THE WEEKEND.  SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS
NEAR 20 SECONDS.  MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS
LIKELY IN SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION..KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 031805 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS FRIDAY
WILL BECOME CONFINED TO SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION
BASED AROUND 3400 FEET AT LAX...WITH BALLOON INDICATING INVERSION
BASED AROUND 2400 FEET AT VANDENBERG. SATELLITE PICS SHOWS RATHER
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS LAX/VENTURA COUNTIES AND MORE PATCHY
STRATUS ACROSS SBA/SLO COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO DISSIPATE BY
LATE MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
DEEP MARINE INVERSION AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS...IT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY THAN WEDNESDAY.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
WEST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS SLIGHTLY
ON THE COOL SIDE AND CONTINUE A DEEP MARINE LAYER INVERSION. ALSO
THERE WILL BE THE USUAL GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LESS MARINE INFLUENCE AND
HIGHER THICKNESSES/H5 HEIGHTS.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER TODAY. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...

ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL EAST...THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. EXCEPT THERE WILL BE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT EXPANDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF
CALIFORNIA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP
OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES AS WELL AS SLO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO HELP WARM UP THE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
COAST WHERE NE TO E WINDS STICK AROUND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HIGHS COULD REACH IN THE MID 80S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST SUNDAY...WITH
DECENT WARMING FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND SOME WARMING FOR A
FEW COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SCOURING OUT.

MON-WED THE SURFACE GRADIENTS SWITCH BACK TO WEAK-MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER OVER THE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW HELPED WARM THESE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN MOST AREAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS MORE AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z.

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS ABOUT 3000 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP
WAS NEAR 6350 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS ALONG THE COAST AND
IN ADJACENT VALLEYS AND HIGH CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE.  CIGS CONTINUE AT
A FEW LOCATIONS BUT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR BY 20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS
RETURN TONIGHT AS EARLY AS 03Z IN SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS AND AS LATE
AS 14Z AT KPRB BUT ALL COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE A RETURN OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AT CENTRAL COAST SITES AND PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS AT THE OTHERS WITH A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS
TODAY.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LAX... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  CIGS CONTINUE
ATTM BUT SHOULD GO VFR 18Z-20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND
05Z WITH MVFR CIGS FOR KLAX.  A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS
TODAY.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

BUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  CIGS CONTINUE ATTM BUT
SHOULD GO VFR 18Z-20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND 06Z WITH
MVFR CIGS FOR KBUR.  A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS TODAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...03/830 AM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER
WATERS. THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INNER WATERS AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL.

MEANWHILE... STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A
SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
OVER THE WEEKEND.  SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS
NEAR 20 SECONDS.  MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS
LIKELY IN SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION..KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 031805 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS FRIDAY
WILL BECOME CONFINED TO SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION
BASED AROUND 3400 FEET AT LAX...WITH BALLOON INDICATING INVERSION
BASED AROUND 2400 FEET AT VANDENBERG. SATELLITE PICS SHOWS RATHER
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS LAX/VENTURA COUNTIES AND MORE PATCHY
STRATUS ACROSS SBA/SLO COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO DISSIPATE BY
LATE MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
DEEP MARINE INVERSION AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS...IT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY THAN WEDNESDAY.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
WEST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS SLIGHTLY
ON THE COOL SIDE AND CONTINUE A DEEP MARINE LAYER INVERSION. ALSO
THERE WILL BE THE USUAL GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LESS MARINE INFLUENCE AND
HIGHER THICKNESSES/H5 HEIGHTS.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER TODAY. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...

ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL EAST...THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. EXCEPT THERE WILL BE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT EXPANDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF
CALIFORNIA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP
OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES AS WELL AS SLO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO HELP WARM UP THE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
COAST WHERE NE TO E WINDS STICK AROUND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HIGHS COULD REACH IN THE MID 80S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST SUNDAY...WITH
DECENT WARMING FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND SOME WARMING FOR A
FEW COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SCOURING OUT.

MON-WED THE SURFACE GRADIENTS SWITCH BACK TO WEAK-MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER OVER THE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW HELPED WARM THESE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN MOST AREAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS MORE AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z.

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS ABOUT 3000 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP
WAS NEAR 6350 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS ALONG THE COAST AND
IN ADJACENT VALLEYS AND HIGH CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE.  CIGS CONTINUE AT
A FEW LOCATIONS BUT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR BY 20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS
RETURN TONIGHT AS EARLY AS 03Z IN SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS AND AS LATE
AS 14Z AT KPRB BUT ALL COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE A RETURN OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AT CENTRAL COAST SITES AND PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS AT THE OTHERS WITH A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS
TODAY.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LAX... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  CIGS CONTINUE
ATTM BUT SHOULD GO VFR 18Z-20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND
05Z WITH MVFR CIGS FOR KLAX.  A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS
TODAY.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

BUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  CIGS CONTINUE ATTM BUT
SHOULD GO VFR 18Z-20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND 06Z WITH
MVFR CIGS FOR KBUR.  A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS TODAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...03/830 AM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER
WATERS. THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INNER WATERS AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL.

MEANWHILE... STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A
SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
OVER THE WEEKEND.  SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS
NEAR 20 SECONDS.  MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS
LIKELY IN SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION..KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 031805 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS FRIDAY
WILL BECOME CONFINED TO SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION
BASED AROUND 3400 FEET AT LAX...WITH BALLOON INDICATING INVERSION
BASED AROUND 2400 FEET AT VANDENBERG. SATELLITE PICS SHOWS RATHER
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS LAX/VENTURA COUNTIES AND MORE PATCHY
STRATUS ACROSS SBA/SLO COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO DISSIPATE BY
LATE MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
DEEP MARINE INVERSION AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS...IT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY THAN WEDNESDAY.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
WEST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS SLIGHTLY
ON THE COOL SIDE AND CONTINUE A DEEP MARINE LAYER INVERSION. ALSO
THERE WILL BE THE USUAL GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LESS MARINE INFLUENCE AND
HIGHER THICKNESSES/H5 HEIGHTS.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER TODAY. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...

ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL EAST...THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. EXCEPT THERE WILL BE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT EXPANDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF
CALIFORNIA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP
OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES AS WELL AS SLO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO HELP WARM UP THE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
COAST WHERE NE TO E WINDS STICK AROUND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HIGHS COULD REACH IN THE MID 80S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST SUNDAY...WITH
DECENT WARMING FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND SOME WARMING FOR A
FEW COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SCOURING OUT.

MON-WED THE SURFACE GRADIENTS SWITCH BACK TO WEAK-MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER OVER THE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW HELPED WARM THESE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN MOST AREAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS MORE AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z.

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS ABOUT 3000 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP
WAS NEAR 6350 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS ALONG THE COAST AND
IN ADJACENT VALLEYS AND HIGH CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE.  CIGS CONTINUE AT
A FEW LOCATIONS BUT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR BY 20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS
RETURN TONIGHT AS EARLY AS 03Z IN SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS AND AS LATE
AS 14Z AT KPRB BUT ALL COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE A RETURN OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AT CENTRAL COAST SITES AND PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS AT THE OTHERS WITH A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS
TODAY.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LAX... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  CIGS CONTINUE
ATTM BUT SHOULD GO VFR 18Z-20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND
05Z WITH MVFR CIGS FOR KLAX.  A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS
TODAY.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

BUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  CIGS CONTINUE ATTM BUT
SHOULD GO VFR 18Z-20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND 06Z WITH
MVFR CIGS FOR KBUR.  A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS TODAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...03/830 AM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER
WATERS. THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INNER WATERS AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL.

MEANWHILE... STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A
SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
OVER THE WEEKEND.  SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS
NEAR 20 SECONDS.  MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS
LIKELY IN SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION..KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 031805 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS FRIDAY
WILL BECOME CONFINED TO SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION
BASED AROUND 3400 FEET AT LAX...WITH BALLOON INDICATING INVERSION
BASED AROUND 2400 FEET AT VANDENBERG. SATELLITE PICS SHOWS RATHER
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS LAX/VENTURA COUNTIES AND MORE PATCHY
STRATUS ACROSS SBA/SLO COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO DISSIPATE BY
LATE MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
DEEP MARINE INVERSION AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS...IT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY THAN WEDNESDAY.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
WEST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS SLIGHTLY
ON THE COOL SIDE AND CONTINUE A DEEP MARINE LAYER INVERSION. ALSO
THERE WILL BE THE USUAL GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LESS MARINE INFLUENCE AND
HIGHER THICKNESSES/H5 HEIGHTS.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER TODAY. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...

ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL EAST...THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. EXCEPT THERE WILL BE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT EXPANDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF
CALIFORNIA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP
OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES AS WELL AS SLO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO HELP WARM UP THE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
COAST WHERE NE TO E WINDS STICK AROUND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HIGHS COULD REACH IN THE MID 80S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST SUNDAY...WITH
DECENT WARMING FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND SOME WARMING FOR A
FEW COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SCOURING OUT.

MON-WED THE SURFACE GRADIENTS SWITCH BACK TO WEAK-MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER OVER THE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW HELPED WARM THESE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN MOST AREAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS MORE AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z.

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS ABOUT 3000 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP
WAS NEAR 6350 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS ALONG THE COAST AND
IN ADJACENT VALLEYS AND HIGH CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE.  CIGS CONTINUE AT
A FEW LOCATIONS BUT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR BY 20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS
RETURN TONIGHT AS EARLY AS 03Z IN SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS AND AS LATE
AS 14Z AT KPRB BUT ALL COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE A RETURN OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AT CENTRAL COAST SITES AND PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS AT THE OTHERS WITH A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS
TODAY.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LAX... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  CIGS CONTINUE
ATTM BUT SHOULD GO VFR 18Z-20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND
05Z WITH MVFR CIGS FOR KLAX.  A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS
TODAY.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

BUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  CIGS CONTINUE ATTM BUT
SHOULD GO VFR 18Z-20Z.  MARINE CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND 06Z WITH
MVFR CIGS FOR KBUR.  A SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN TOMORROW AS TODAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...03/830 AM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER
WATERS. THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INNER WATERS AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL.

MEANWHILE... STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A
SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
OVER THE WEEKEND.  SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS
NEAR 20 SECONDS.  MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS
LIKELY IN SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION..KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 031550 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
850 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS FRIDAY
WILL BECOME CONFINED TO SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION
BASED AROUND 3400 FEET AT LAX...WITH BALLOON INDICATING INVERSION
BASED AROUND 2400 FEET AT VANDENBERG. SATELLITE PICS SHOWS RATHER
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS LAX/VENTURA COUNTIES AND MORE PATCHY
STRATUS ACROSS SBA/SLO COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO DISSIPATE BY
LATE MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
DEEP MARINE INVERSION AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS...IT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY THAN WEDNESDAY.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
WEST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS SLIGHTLY
ON THE COOL SIDE AND CONTINUE A DEEP MARINE LAYER INVERSION. ALSO
THERE WILL BE THE USUAL GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LESS MARINE INFLUENCE AND
HIGHER THICKNESSES/H5 HEIGHTS.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER TODAY. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...

ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL EAST...THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. EXCEPT THERE WILL BE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT EXPANDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF
CALIFORNIA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP
OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES AS WELL AS SLO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO HELP WARM UP THE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
COAST WHERE NE TO E WINDS STICK AROUND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HIGHS COULD REACH IN THE MID 80S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST SUNDAY...WITH
DECENT WARMING FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND SOME WARMING FOR A
FEW COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SCOURING OUT.

MON-WED THE SURFACE GRADIENTS SWITCH BACK TO WEAK-MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER OVER THE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW HELPED WARM THESE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN MOST AREAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS MORE AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...AT 0815Z...THEN MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS ABOUT 3500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4500 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 19C.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. IFR CONDS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL SLOPES. ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...CONDS WERE MOSTLY LOW MVFR.
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...03/830 AM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER
WATERS. THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INNER WATERS AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL.

MEANWHILE... STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A
SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
OVER THE WEEKEND.  SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS
NEAR 20 SECONDS.  MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS
LIKELY IN SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION..DB
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 031550 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
850 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS FRIDAY
WILL BECOME CONFINED TO SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION
BASED AROUND 3400 FEET AT LAX...WITH BALLOON INDICATING INVERSION
BASED AROUND 2400 FEET AT VANDENBERG. SATELLITE PICS SHOWS RATHER
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS LAX/VENTURA COUNTIES AND MORE PATCHY
STRATUS ACROSS SBA/SLO COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO DISSIPATE BY
LATE MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
DEEP MARINE INVERSION AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS...IT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY THAN WEDNESDAY.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
WEST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS SLIGHTLY
ON THE COOL SIDE AND CONTINUE A DEEP MARINE LAYER INVERSION. ALSO
THERE WILL BE THE USUAL GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LESS MARINE INFLUENCE AND
HIGHER THICKNESSES/H5 HEIGHTS.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER TODAY. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...

ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL EAST...THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. EXCEPT THERE WILL BE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT EXPANDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF
CALIFORNIA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP
OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES AS WELL AS SLO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO HELP WARM UP THE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
COAST WHERE NE TO E WINDS STICK AROUND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HIGHS COULD REACH IN THE MID 80S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST SUNDAY...WITH
DECENT WARMING FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND SOME WARMING FOR A
FEW COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SCOURING OUT.

MON-WED THE SURFACE GRADIENTS SWITCH BACK TO WEAK-MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER OVER THE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW HELPED WARM THESE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN MOST AREAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS MORE AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...AT 0815Z...THEN MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS ABOUT 3500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4500 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 19C.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. IFR CONDS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL SLOPES. ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...CONDS WERE MOSTLY LOW MVFR.
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...03/830 AM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER
WATERS. THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INNER WATERS AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL.

MEANWHILE... STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A
SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
OVER THE WEEKEND.  SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS
NEAR 20 SECONDS.  MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.  SHOALING IS
LIKELY IN SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION..DB
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 031544
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
845 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS FRIDAY
WILL BECOME CONFINED TO SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION
BASED AROUND 3400 FEET AT LAX...WITH BALLOON INDICATING INVERSION
BASED AROUND 2400 FEET AT VANDENBERG. SATELLITE PICS SHOWS RATHER
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS LAX/VENTURA COUNTIES AND MORE PATCHY
STRATUS ACROSS SBA/SLO COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO DISSIPATE BY
LATE MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
DEEP MARINE INVERSION AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS...IT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY THAN WEDNESDAY.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
WEST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS SLIGHTLY
ON THE COOL SIDE AND CONTINUE A DEEP MARINE LAYER INVERSION. ALSO
THERE WILL BE THE USUAL GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LESS MARINE INFLUENCE AND
HIGHER THICKNESSES/H5 HEIGHTS.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER TODAY. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...

ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL EAST...THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. EXCEPT THERE WILL BE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT EXPANDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF
CALIFORNIA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP
OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES AS WELL AS SLO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO HELP WARM UP THE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
COAST WHERE NE TO E WINDS STICK AROUND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HIGHS COULD REACH IN THE MID 80S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST SUNDAY...WITH
DECENT WARMING FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND SOME WARMING FOR A
FEW COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SCOURING OUT.

MON-WED THE SURFACE GRADIENTS SWITCH BACK TO WEAK-MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER OVER THE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW HELPED WARM THESE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN MOST AREAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS MORE AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...AT 0815Z...THEN MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS ABOUT 3500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4500 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 19C.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. IFR CONDS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL SLOPES. ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...CONDS WERE MOSTLY LOW MVFR.
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...03/300 PM. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST INNER
WATERS AND FOR THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD.

SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTER WATERS FRI AFTERNOON
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SCA
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI AND SAT.

MEANWHILE...STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A SWELL
THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20
SECONDS. MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT
WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS. SHOALING IS LIKELY IN
SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 031544
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
845 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS FRIDAY
WILL BECOME CONFINED TO SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION
BASED AROUND 3400 FEET AT LAX...WITH BALLOON INDICATING INVERSION
BASED AROUND 2400 FEET AT VANDENBERG. SATELLITE PICS SHOWS RATHER
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS LAX/VENTURA COUNTIES AND MORE PATCHY
STRATUS ACROSS SBA/SLO COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO DISSIPATE BY
LATE MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
DEEP MARINE INVERSION AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS...IT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY THAN WEDNESDAY.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
WEST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS SLIGHTLY
ON THE COOL SIDE AND CONTINUE A DEEP MARINE LAYER INVERSION. ALSO
THERE WILL BE THE USUAL GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LESS MARINE INFLUENCE AND
HIGHER THICKNESSES/H5 HEIGHTS.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER TODAY. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...

ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL EAST...THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. EXCEPT THERE WILL BE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT EXPANDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF
CALIFORNIA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP
OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES AS WELL AS SLO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO HELP WARM UP THE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
COAST WHERE NE TO E WINDS STICK AROUND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HIGHS COULD REACH IN THE MID 80S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST SUNDAY...WITH
DECENT WARMING FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND SOME WARMING FOR A
FEW COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SCOURING OUT.

MON-WED THE SURFACE GRADIENTS SWITCH BACK TO WEAK-MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER OVER THE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW HELPED WARM THESE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN MOST AREAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS MORE AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...AT 0815Z...THEN MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS ABOUT 3500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4500 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 19C.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. IFR CONDS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL SLOPES. ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...CONDS WERE MOSTLY LOW MVFR.
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...03/300 PM. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST INNER
WATERS AND FOR THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD.

SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTER WATERS FRI AFTERNOON
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SCA
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI AND SAT.

MEANWHILE...STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A SWELL
THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20
SECONDS. MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT
WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS. SHOALING IS LIKELY IN
SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 031049
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
345 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR COAST AND VALLEYS THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE
BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING NEAR LAX INDICATED
THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 3500 FT THIS MORNING. FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS MOST COAST AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS.  THE WEAK UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE REGION YESTERDAY MORNING WAS LOCATED AROUND POINT CONCEPTION
AND IS REALLY A NON FACTOR WITH OUR WEATHER MOVING AHEAD. AS FAR AS
THIS DEEP MOIST LAYER AROUND 3500 FT...EXPECTING A SIMILAR SCOUR OUT
TIME FOR CLOUDS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE
THIS MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM WASHINGTON STATE INTO
NRN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WELL
BRINGING GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND INTO
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL...THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER CONDITIONS AS
HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOWER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MARINE LAYER OR DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL PERSIST AS WELL THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD TO
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. HIGHS
OVER THE NEXT  IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. FRIDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL.

BY SATURDAY...THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL IN AS IT SWINGS
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL BE ON
THE RISE...WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS AFTER NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED
STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
CENTRAL COAST CLEAR AND LIMIT LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST AND SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY AND POSSIBLY VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...

ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL EAST...THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. EXCEPT THERE WILL BE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT EXPANDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF
CALIFORNIA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP
OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES AS WELL AS SLO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO HELP WARM UP THE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
COAST WHERE NE TO E WINDS STICK AROUND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HIGHS COULD REACH IN THE MID 80S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST SUNDAY...WITH
DECENT WARMING FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND SOME WARMING FOR A
FEW COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SCOURING OUT.

MON-WED THE SURFACE GRADIENTS SWITCH BACK TO WEAK-MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER OVER THE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW HELPED WARM THESE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN MOST AREAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS MORE AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...AT 0815Z...THEN MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS ABOUT 3500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4500 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 19C.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. IFR CONDS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL SLOPES. ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...CONDS WERE MOSTLY LOW MVFR.
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...03/300 PM. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST INNER
WATERS AND FOR THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD.

SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTER WATERS FRI AFTERNOON
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SCA
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI AND SAT.

MEANWHILE...STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A SWELL
THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20
SECONDS. MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT
WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS. SHOALING IS LIKELY IN
SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 031049
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
345 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR COAST AND VALLEYS THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE
BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING NEAR LAX INDICATED
THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 3500 FT THIS MORNING. FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS MOST COAST AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS.  THE WEAK UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE REGION YESTERDAY MORNING WAS LOCATED AROUND POINT CONCEPTION
AND IS REALLY A NON FACTOR WITH OUR WEATHER MOVING AHEAD. AS FAR AS
THIS DEEP MOIST LAYER AROUND 3500 FT...EXPECTING A SIMILAR SCOUR OUT
TIME FOR CLOUDS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE
THIS MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM WASHINGTON STATE INTO
NRN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WELL
BRINGING GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND INTO
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL...THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER CONDITIONS AS
HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOWER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MARINE LAYER OR DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL PERSIST AS WELL THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD TO
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. HIGHS
OVER THE NEXT  IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. FRIDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL.

BY SATURDAY...THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL IN AS IT SWINGS
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL BE ON
THE RISE...WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS AFTER NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED
STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
CENTRAL COAST CLEAR AND LIMIT LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST AND SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY AND POSSIBLY VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...

ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL EAST...THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. EXCEPT THERE WILL BE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT EXPANDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF
CALIFORNIA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP
OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES AS WELL AS SLO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO HELP WARM UP THE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
COAST WHERE NE TO E WINDS STICK AROUND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HIGHS COULD REACH IN THE MID 80S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST SUNDAY...WITH
DECENT WARMING FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND SOME WARMING FOR A
FEW COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SCOURING OUT.

MON-WED THE SURFACE GRADIENTS SWITCH BACK TO WEAK-MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER OVER THE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW HELPED WARM THESE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN MOST AREAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS MORE AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...AT 0815Z...THEN MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS ABOUT 3500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4500 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 19C.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. IFR CONDS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL SLOPES. ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...CONDS WERE MOSTLY LOW MVFR.
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...03/300 PM. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST INNER
WATERS AND FOR THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD.

SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTER WATERS FRI AFTERNOON
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SCA
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI AND SAT.

MEANWHILE...STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A SWELL
THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20
SECONDS. MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT
WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS. SHOALING IS LIKELY IN
SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 031049
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
345 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR COAST AND VALLEYS THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE
BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING NEAR LAX INDICATED
THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 3500 FT THIS MORNING. FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS MOST COAST AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS.  THE WEAK UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE REGION YESTERDAY MORNING WAS LOCATED AROUND POINT CONCEPTION
AND IS REALLY A NON FACTOR WITH OUR WEATHER MOVING AHEAD. AS FAR AS
THIS DEEP MOIST LAYER AROUND 3500 FT...EXPECTING A SIMILAR SCOUR OUT
TIME FOR CLOUDS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE
THIS MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM WASHINGTON STATE INTO
NRN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WELL
BRINGING GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND INTO
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL...THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER CONDITIONS AS
HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOWER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MARINE LAYER OR DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL PERSIST AS WELL THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD TO
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. HIGHS
OVER THE NEXT  IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. FRIDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL.

BY SATURDAY...THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL IN AS IT SWINGS
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL BE ON
THE RISE...WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS AFTER NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED
STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
CENTRAL COAST CLEAR AND LIMIT LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST AND SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY AND POSSIBLY VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...

ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL EAST...THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. EXCEPT THERE WILL BE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT EXPANDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF
CALIFORNIA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP
OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES AS WELL AS SLO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO HELP WARM UP THE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
COAST WHERE NE TO E WINDS STICK AROUND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HIGHS COULD REACH IN THE MID 80S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST SUNDAY...WITH
DECENT WARMING FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND SOME WARMING FOR A
FEW COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SCOURING OUT.

MON-WED THE SURFACE GRADIENTS SWITCH BACK TO WEAK-MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER OVER THE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW HELPED WARM THESE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN MOST AREAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS MORE AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...AT 0815Z...THEN MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS ABOUT 3500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4500 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 19C.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. IFR CONDS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL SLOPES. ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...CONDS WERE MOSTLY LOW MVFR.
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...03/300 PM. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST INNER
WATERS AND FOR THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD.

SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTER WATERS FRI AFTERNOON
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SCA
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI AND SAT.

MEANWHILE...STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A SWELL
THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20
SECONDS. MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT
WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS. SHOALING IS LIKELY IN
SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 031049
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
345 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR COAST AND VALLEYS THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE
BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING NEAR LAX INDICATED
THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 3500 FT THIS MORNING. FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS MOST COAST AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS.  THE WEAK UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE REGION YESTERDAY MORNING WAS LOCATED AROUND POINT CONCEPTION
AND IS REALLY A NON FACTOR WITH OUR WEATHER MOVING AHEAD. AS FAR AS
THIS DEEP MOIST LAYER AROUND 3500 FT...EXPECTING A SIMILAR SCOUR OUT
TIME FOR CLOUDS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE
THIS MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM WASHINGTON STATE INTO
NRN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WELL
BRINGING GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND INTO
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL...THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER CONDITIONS AS
HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOWER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MARINE LAYER OR DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL PERSIST AS WELL THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD TO
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. HIGHS
OVER THE NEXT  IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. FRIDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL.

BY SATURDAY...THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL IN AS IT SWINGS
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL BE ON
THE RISE...WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS AFTER NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED
STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
CENTRAL COAST CLEAR AND LIMIT LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST AND SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY AND POSSIBLY VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...

ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL EAST...THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. EXCEPT THERE WILL BE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT EXPANDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF
CALIFORNIA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP
OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES AS WELL AS SLO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO HELP WARM UP THE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
COAST WHERE NE TO E WINDS STICK AROUND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HIGHS COULD REACH IN THE MID 80S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST SUNDAY...WITH
DECENT WARMING FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND SOME WARMING FOR A
FEW COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SCOURING OUT.

MON-WED THE SURFACE GRADIENTS SWITCH BACK TO WEAK-MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER OVER THE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW HELPED WARM THESE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN MOST AREAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS MORE AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...AT 0815Z...THEN MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS ABOUT 3500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4500 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 19C.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. IFR CONDS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL SLOPES. ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...CONDS WERE MOSTLY LOW MVFR.
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...03/300 PM. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST INNER
WATERS AND FOR THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD.

SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTER WATERS FRI AFTERNOON
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SCA
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI AND SAT.

MEANWHILE...STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A SWELL
THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20
SECONDS. MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT
WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS. SHOALING IS LIKELY IN
SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

.BEACHES...LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WITH A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 031016
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR COAST AND VALLEYS THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE
BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING NEAR LAX INDICATED
THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 3500 FT THIS MORNING. FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS MOST COAST AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS.  THE WEAK UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE REGION YESTERDAY MORNING WAS LOCATED AROUND POINT CONCEPTION
AND IS REALLY A NON FACTOR WITH OUR WEATHER MOVING AHEAD. AS FAR AS
THIS DEEP MOIST LAYER AROUND 3500 FT...EXPECTING A SIMILAR SCOUR OUT
TIME FOR CLOUDS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE
THIS MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM WASHINGTON STATE INTO
NRN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WELL
BRINGING GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND INTO
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL...THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER CONDITIONS AS
HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOWER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MARINE LAYER OR DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL PERSIST AS WELL THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD TO
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. HIGHS
OVER THE NEXT  IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. FRIDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL.

BY SATURDAY...THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL IN AS IT SWINGS
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL BE ON
THE RISE...WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS AFTER NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED
STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
CENTRAL COAST CLEAR AND LIMIT LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST AND SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY AND POSSIBLY VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...

ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL EAST...THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. EXCEPT THERE WILL BE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT EXPANDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF
CALIFORNIA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP
OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES AS WELL AS SLO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO HELP WARM UP THE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
COAST WHERE NE TO E WINDS STICK AROUND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HIGHS COULD REACH IN THE MID 80S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST SUNDAY...WITH
DECENT WARMING FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND SOME WARMING FOR A
FEW COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SCOURING OUT.

MON-WED THE SURFACE GRADIENTS SWITCH BACK TO WEAK-MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER OVER THE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW HELPED WARM THESE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN MOST AREAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS MORE AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE UPDATED FRO 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...02/800 PM. LOCALLY MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LOCAL GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS AND ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCA GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS FORECAST. MEANWHILE...STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC
GENERATED A SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH
INTERVALS NEAR 20 SECONDS. MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG
PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.
SHOALING WILL BE LIKELY IN SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR
ENTRANCES.



&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 031016
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR COAST AND VALLEYS THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE
BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING NEAR LAX INDICATED
THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 3500 FT THIS MORNING. FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS MOST COAST AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS.  THE WEAK UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE REGION YESTERDAY MORNING WAS LOCATED AROUND POINT CONCEPTION
AND IS REALLY A NON FACTOR WITH OUR WEATHER MOVING AHEAD. AS FAR AS
THIS DEEP MOIST LAYER AROUND 3500 FT...EXPECTING A SIMILAR SCOUR OUT
TIME FOR CLOUDS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE
THIS MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM WASHINGTON STATE INTO
NRN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WELL
BRINGING GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND INTO
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL...THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER CONDITIONS AS
HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOWER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MARINE LAYER OR DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL PERSIST AS WELL THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD TO
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. HIGHS
OVER THE NEXT  IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. FRIDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL.

BY SATURDAY...THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL IN AS IT SWINGS
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL BE ON
THE RISE...WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS AFTER NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED
STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
CENTRAL COAST CLEAR AND LIMIT LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST AND SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY AND POSSIBLY VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...

ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL EAST...THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY. EXCEPT THERE WILL BE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT EXPANDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF
CALIFORNIA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP
OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES AS WELL AS SLO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO HELP WARM UP THE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
COAST WHERE NE TO E WINDS STICK AROUND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HIGHS COULD REACH IN THE MID 80S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST SUNDAY...WITH
DECENT WARMING FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND SOME WARMING FOR A
FEW COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SCOURING OUT.

MON-WED THE SURFACE GRADIENTS SWITCH BACK TO WEAK-MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER OVER THE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW HELPED WARM THESE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN MOST AREAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS MORE AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE UPDATED FRO 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...02/800 PM. LOCALLY MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LOCAL GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS AND ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCA GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS FORECAST. MEANWHILE...STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC
GENERATED A SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH
INTERVALS NEAR 20 SECONDS. MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG
PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.
SHOALING WILL BE LIKELY IN SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR
ENTRANCES.



&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 030357
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
855 PM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW WILL CONTINUE THE OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT THE COAST
AND VALLEYS WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD RETREAT TO THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LOW SHOULD WEAKEN FOR FAIR
SKIES AND WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX EARLY THIS
EVENING WAS AROUND 1600 FEET DEEP...AND SHOULD DEEPEN OVERNIGHT
THANKS TO A WEAK EDDY DEVELOPING OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS WERE NOTED ALONG THE VTU COUNTY COAST...WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT AND ALSO JUST OFF THE CENTRAL COAST.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND ALONG THE COAST THRU TONIGHT AND MOVE
INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS AND LOWER COASTAL SLOPES LATER TONIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THRU THE NIGHT. LINGERING GUSTY S TO W WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
INLAND OVERNIGHT...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS PERSISTING OVER
THE AREA THRU THU. DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS WILL COME DOWN FROM
THE N AND MOVE OVER SRN CA THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE UPPER TROF WILL
THEN MOVE E FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH A BROAD WLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN
CA ON SAT.

DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER OVERALL WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THU THRU SAT. A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP
VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME OFFSHORE SHOW WILL AFFECT SLO/SBA COUNTIES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUD COVERAGE THERE A BIT LESS EXPECTED AT THAT
TIME. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THRU SAT. BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST...AND FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND ANTELOPE
VLY EACH DAY AS WELL.

TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THU THRU
SAT...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING SUNDAY
BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BUT THEN LIKELY LEVELING
OFF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHT RISES CEASE WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL TROUGH ENERGY COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL A
PRETTY BLAND WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MORE
WARMING LIKELY TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD BACK NORTH AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...02/2355Z.

AT 2314Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1350 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUD AND
MOSTLY IFR/MVFR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AT ALL COASTAL AND VLY AIRFIELDS
WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO LATE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU AFTERNOON.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW
CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KWJF AND
KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU. GUSTY W TO SW WINDS AT THESE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSBP AND KSMX THU AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 05Z AND PERSIST THRU 21Z THU WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AGAIN THU EVENING.
THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE TOO EARLY
BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z AND PERSIST THRU 18Z THU WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE
LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...02/800 PM.

LOCALLY MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS AND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SCA GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH
OF POINT SAL. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.
MEANWHILE...STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A SWELL
THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20
SECONDS. MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT
WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS. SHOALING WILL BE LIKELY
IN SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 030357
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
855 PM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW WILL CONTINUE THE OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT THE COAST
AND VALLEYS WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD RETREAT TO THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LOW SHOULD WEAKEN FOR FAIR
SKIES AND WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX EARLY THIS
EVENING WAS AROUND 1600 FEET DEEP...AND SHOULD DEEPEN OVERNIGHT
THANKS TO A WEAK EDDY DEVELOPING OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS WERE NOTED ALONG THE VTU COUNTY COAST...WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT AND ALSO JUST OFF THE CENTRAL COAST.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND ALONG THE COAST THRU TONIGHT AND MOVE
INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS AND LOWER COASTAL SLOPES LATER TONIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THRU THE NIGHT. LINGERING GUSTY S TO W WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
INLAND OVERNIGHT...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS PERSISTING OVER
THE AREA THRU THU. DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS WILL COME DOWN FROM
THE N AND MOVE OVER SRN CA THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE UPPER TROF WILL
THEN MOVE E FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH A BROAD WLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN
CA ON SAT.

DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER OVERALL WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THU THRU SAT. A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP
VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME OFFSHORE SHOW WILL AFFECT SLO/SBA COUNTIES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUD COVERAGE THERE A BIT LESS EXPECTED AT THAT
TIME. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THRU SAT. BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST...AND FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND ANTELOPE
VLY EACH DAY AS WELL.

TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THU THRU
SAT...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING SUNDAY
BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BUT THEN LIKELY LEVELING
OFF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHT RISES CEASE WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL TROUGH ENERGY COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL A
PRETTY BLAND WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MORE
WARMING LIKELY TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD BACK NORTH AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...02/2355Z.

AT 2314Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1350 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUD AND
MOSTLY IFR/MVFR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AT ALL COASTAL AND VLY AIRFIELDS
WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO LATE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU AFTERNOON.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW
CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KWJF AND
KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU. GUSTY W TO SW WINDS AT THESE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSBP AND KSMX THU AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 05Z AND PERSIST THRU 21Z THU WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AGAIN THU EVENING.
THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE TOO EARLY
BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z AND PERSIST THRU 18Z THU WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE
LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...02/800 PM.

LOCALLY MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS AND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SCA GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH
OF POINT SAL. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.
MEANWHILE...STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERATED A SWELL
THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH INTERVALS NEAR 20
SECONDS. MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT
WILL LIKELY HAVE EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS. SHOALING WILL BE LIKELY
IN SHALLOWER WATER AND IN SOME HARBOR ENTRANCES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 022358 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 PM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN HEADING INTO LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...MORNING CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A
2500` MARINE LYR IN PLACE. A SMALL COMPACT UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
NEAR PT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT BUT TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST. JUST MINIMAL
DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY (MAINLY COOLER), THEN
TURNING SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
FROM THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING TO THE BEACHES
BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING SUNDAY
BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BUT THEN LIKELY LEVELING
OFF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHT RISES CEASE WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL TROUGH ENERGY COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL A
PRETTY BLAND WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MORE
WARMING LIKELY TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD BACK NORTH AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...02/2355Z.

AT 2314Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1350 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUD AND
MOSTLY IFR/MVFR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AT ALL COASTAL AND VLY AIRFIELDS
WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO LATE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU AFTERNOON.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW
CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KWJF AND
KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU. GUSTY W TO SW WINDS AT THESE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSBP AND KSMX THU AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 05Z AND PERSIST THRU 21Z THU WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AGAIN THU EVENING.
THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE TOO EARLY
BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z AND PERSIST THRU 18Z THU WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE
LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 PM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WITHIN A 190-210
DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST WEEK FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY HAD GENERATED SEAS THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE
EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 022358 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 PM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN HEADING INTO LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...MORNING CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A
2500` MARINE LYR IN PLACE. A SMALL COMPACT UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
NEAR PT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT BUT TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST. JUST MINIMAL
DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY (MAINLY COOLER), THEN
TURNING SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
FROM THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING TO THE BEACHES
BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING SUNDAY
BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BUT THEN LIKELY LEVELING
OFF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHT RISES CEASE WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL TROUGH ENERGY COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL A
PRETTY BLAND WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MORE
WARMING LIKELY TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD BACK NORTH AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...02/2355Z.

AT 2314Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1350 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUD AND
MOSTLY IFR/MVFR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AT ALL COASTAL AND VLY AIRFIELDS
WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO LATE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU AFTERNOON.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW
CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KWJF AND
KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU. GUSTY W TO SW WINDS AT THESE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSBP AND KSMX THU AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 05Z AND PERSIST THRU 21Z THU WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AGAIN THU EVENING.
THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE TOO EARLY
BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z AND PERSIST THRU 18Z THU WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE
LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 PM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WITHIN A 190-210
DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST WEEK FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY HAD GENERATED SEAS THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE
EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 022358 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 PM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN HEADING INTO LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...MORNING CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A
2500` MARINE LYR IN PLACE. A SMALL COMPACT UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
NEAR PT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT BUT TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST. JUST MINIMAL
DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY (MAINLY COOLER), THEN
TURNING SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
FROM THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING TO THE BEACHES
BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING SUNDAY
BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BUT THEN LIKELY LEVELING
OFF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHT RISES CEASE WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL TROUGH ENERGY COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL A
PRETTY BLAND WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MORE
WARMING LIKELY TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD BACK NORTH AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...02/2355Z.

AT 2314Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1350 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUD AND
MOSTLY IFR/MVFR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AT ALL COASTAL AND VLY AIRFIELDS
WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO LATE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU AFTERNOON.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW
CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KWJF AND
KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU. GUSTY W TO SW WINDS AT THESE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSBP AND KSMX THU AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 05Z AND PERSIST THRU 21Z THU WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AGAIN THU EVENING.
THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE TOO EARLY
BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z AND PERSIST THRU 18Z THU WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE
LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 PM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WITHIN A 190-210
DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST WEEK FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY HAD GENERATED SEAS THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE
EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 022358 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 PM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN HEADING INTO LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...MORNING CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A
2500` MARINE LYR IN PLACE. A SMALL COMPACT UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
NEAR PT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT BUT TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST. JUST MINIMAL
DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY (MAINLY COOLER), THEN
TURNING SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
FROM THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING TO THE BEACHES
BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING SUNDAY
BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BUT THEN LIKELY LEVELING
OFF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHT RISES CEASE WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL TROUGH ENERGY COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL A
PRETTY BLAND WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MORE
WARMING LIKELY TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD BACK NORTH AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...02/2355Z.

AT 2314Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1350 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUD AND
MOSTLY IFR/MVFR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AT ALL COASTAL AND VLY AIRFIELDS
WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO LATE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU AFTERNOON.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW
CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KWJF AND
KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU. GUSTY W TO SW WINDS AT THESE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSBP AND KSMX THU AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 05Z AND PERSIST THRU 21Z THU WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AGAIN THU EVENING.
THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE TOO EARLY
BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z AND PERSIST THRU 18Z THU WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE
LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 PM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WITHIN A 190-210
DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST WEEK FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY HAD GENERATED SEAS THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE
EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 022031
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN HEADING INTO LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...MORNING CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A
2500` MARINE LYR IN PLACE. A SMALL COMPACT UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
NEAR PT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT BUT TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST. JUST MINIMAL
DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY (MAINLY COOLER), THEN
TURNING SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
FROM THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING TO THE BEACHES
BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING SUNDAY
BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BUT THEN LIKELY LEVELING
OFF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHT RISES CEASE WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL TROUGH ENERGY COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL A
PRETTY BLAND WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MORE
WARMING LIKELY TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD BACK NORTH AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1800Z.

A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY 03/12Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. WEAK CAPPING INVERSION
OVER THE AREA WITH DISORGAINZED CLOUD FIELD WITH TOPS 3.5-4KFT MAY
STRENGTHEN AND DIFFER BY MINUS .5KFT THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK TO MODERATE
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 03/03Z AND AFTER 03/20Z OTHERWISE
FLAT GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1600 IS 3545 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 4831 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 18.6 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 035 THROUGH 02/20Z. CIGS 025 LIKELY BETWEEN
03/04-03/09Z AND 018 BETWEEN 03/09-03/17Z. CHANCE CIGS 027
BETWEEN 03/17-03/20Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 023 THROUGH 02/19Z. CIGS 013-019 LIKELY AFTER
03/03Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...02/200 PM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WITHIN A 190-210
DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LASTE WEEK FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY HAD GENERATED SEAS THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE
EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 022031
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN HEADING INTO LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...MORNING CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A
2500` MARINE LYR IN PLACE. A SMALL COMPACT UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
NEAR PT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT BUT TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST. JUST MINIMAL
DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY (MAINLY COOLER), THEN
TURNING SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
FROM THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING TO THE BEACHES
BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING SUNDAY
BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BUT THEN LIKELY LEVELING
OFF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHT RISES CEASE WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL TROUGH ENERGY COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL A
PRETTY BLAND WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MORE
WARMING LIKELY TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD BACK NORTH AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1800Z.

A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY 03/12Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. WEAK CAPPING INVERSION
OVER THE AREA WITH DISORGAINZED CLOUD FIELD WITH TOPS 3.5-4KFT MAY
STRENGTHEN AND DIFFER BY MINUS .5KFT THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK TO MODERATE
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 03/03Z AND AFTER 03/20Z OTHERWISE
FLAT GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1600 IS 3545 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 4831 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 18.6 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 035 THROUGH 02/20Z. CIGS 025 LIKELY BETWEEN
03/04-03/09Z AND 018 BETWEEN 03/09-03/17Z. CHANCE CIGS 027
BETWEEN 03/17-03/20Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 023 THROUGH 02/19Z. CIGS 013-019 LIKELY AFTER
03/03Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...02/200 PM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WITHIN A 190-210
DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LASTE WEEK FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY HAD GENERATED SEAS THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE
EXTRA SURGING AND CURRENTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 021802
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1103 AM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN HEADING INTO
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...MORNING CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LYR AROUND
2500` AND TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
THUS, MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE
COAST BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PROBABLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THROUGH
FRIDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN A SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE UPPER LOW INTO
NRN NEVADA...WHILE THE EC MODEL SHOWS THE LOW FILLING IN AS IT PULLS
NE INTO IDAHO. THE GFS 500 MB ENSEMBLE SEEMS TO BE A BIT
INCONSISTENT FROM SATURDAY ON. SO FIGURING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A
TAD FARTHER NE ON SATURDAY. STILL ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES. ONE NOTABLE ISSUE IS THAT ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE GFS IS
INDICATING A DECENT SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT. IF THIS HOLDS
TRUE...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS WITH SOME WARMING TO THE
COAST AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED N OF POINT CONCEPTION
WITH ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR STRATUS FOR THE LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OFFSHORE TRENDS. FOR MON-TUE...BOTH MODELS ARE OUT OF
SYNC AS THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIF COAST
WHILE THE EC BRINGS IN A WEAK UPPER RIDGE. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT WHAT
EARLIER SHIFTS HAD... A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1800Z.

A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY 03/12Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. WEAK CAPPING INVERSION
OVER THE AREA WITH DISORGAINZED CLOUD FIELD WITH TOPS 3.5-4KFT MAY
STRENGTHEN AND DIFFER BY MINUS .5KFT THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK TO MODERATE
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 03/03Z AND AFTER 03/20Z OTHERWISE
FLAT GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1600 IS 3545 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 4831 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 18.6 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 035 THROUGH 02/20Z. CIGS 025 LIKELY BETWEEN
03/04-03/09Z AND 018 BETWEEN 03/09-03/17Z. CHANCE CIGS 027
BETWEEN 03/17-03/20Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 023 THROUGH 02/19Z. CIGS 013-019 LIKELY AFTER
03/03Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 021802
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1103 AM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN HEADING INTO
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...MORNING CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LYR AROUND
2500` AND TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
THUS, MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE
COAST BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PROBABLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THROUGH
FRIDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN A SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE UPPER LOW INTO
NRN NEVADA...WHILE THE EC MODEL SHOWS THE LOW FILLING IN AS IT PULLS
NE INTO IDAHO. THE GFS 500 MB ENSEMBLE SEEMS TO BE A BIT
INCONSISTENT FROM SATURDAY ON. SO FIGURING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A
TAD FARTHER NE ON SATURDAY. STILL ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES. ONE NOTABLE ISSUE IS THAT ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE GFS IS
INDICATING A DECENT SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT. IF THIS HOLDS
TRUE...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS WITH SOME WARMING TO THE
COAST AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED N OF POINT CONCEPTION
WITH ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR STRATUS FOR THE LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OFFSHORE TRENDS. FOR MON-TUE...BOTH MODELS ARE OUT OF
SYNC AS THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIF COAST
WHILE THE EC BRINGS IN A WEAK UPPER RIDGE. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT WHAT
EARLIER SHIFTS HAD... A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1800Z.

A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY 03/12Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. WEAK CAPPING INVERSION
OVER THE AREA WITH DISORGAINZED CLOUD FIELD WITH TOPS 3.5-4KFT MAY
STRENGTHEN AND DIFFER BY MINUS .5KFT THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK TO MODERATE
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 03/03Z AND AFTER 03/20Z OTHERWISE
FLAT GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1600 IS 3545 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 4831 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 18.6 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 035 THROUGH 02/20Z. CIGS 025 LIKELY BETWEEN
03/04-03/09Z AND 018 BETWEEN 03/09-03/17Z. CHANCE CIGS 027
BETWEEN 03/17-03/20Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 023 THROUGH 02/19Z. CIGS 013-019 LIKELY AFTER
03/03Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 021802
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1103 AM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN HEADING INTO
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...MORNING CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LYR AROUND
2500` AND TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
THUS, MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE
COAST BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PROBABLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THROUGH
FRIDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN A SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE UPPER LOW INTO
NRN NEVADA...WHILE THE EC MODEL SHOWS THE LOW FILLING IN AS IT PULLS
NE INTO IDAHO. THE GFS 500 MB ENSEMBLE SEEMS TO BE A BIT
INCONSISTENT FROM SATURDAY ON. SO FIGURING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A
TAD FARTHER NE ON SATURDAY. STILL ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES. ONE NOTABLE ISSUE IS THAT ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE GFS IS
INDICATING A DECENT SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT. IF THIS HOLDS
TRUE...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS WITH SOME WARMING TO THE
COAST AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED N OF POINT CONCEPTION
WITH ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR STRATUS FOR THE LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OFFSHORE TRENDS. FOR MON-TUE...BOTH MODELS ARE OUT OF
SYNC AS THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIF COAST
WHILE THE EC BRINGS IN A WEAK UPPER RIDGE. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT WHAT
EARLIER SHIFTS HAD... A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1800Z.

A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY 03/12Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. WEAK CAPPING INVERSION
OVER THE AREA WITH DISORGAINZED CLOUD FIELD WITH TOPS 3.5-4KFT MAY
STRENGTHEN AND DIFFER BY MINUS .5KFT THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK TO MODERATE
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 03/03Z AND AFTER 03/20Z OTHERWISE
FLAT GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1600 IS 3545 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 4831 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 18.6 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 035 THROUGH 02/20Z. CIGS 025 LIKELY BETWEEN
03/04-03/09Z AND 018 BETWEEN 03/09-03/17Z. CHANCE CIGS 027
BETWEEN 03/17-03/20Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 023 THROUGH 02/19Z. CIGS 013-019 LIKELY AFTER
03/03Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 021802
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1103 AM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN HEADING INTO
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...MORNING CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LYR AROUND
2500` AND TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
THUS, MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE
COAST BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PROBABLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THROUGH
FRIDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN A SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE UPPER LOW INTO
NRN NEVADA...WHILE THE EC MODEL SHOWS THE LOW FILLING IN AS IT PULLS
NE INTO IDAHO. THE GFS 500 MB ENSEMBLE SEEMS TO BE A BIT
INCONSISTENT FROM SATURDAY ON. SO FIGURING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A
TAD FARTHER NE ON SATURDAY. STILL ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES. ONE NOTABLE ISSUE IS THAT ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE GFS IS
INDICATING A DECENT SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT. IF THIS HOLDS
TRUE...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS WITH SOME WARMING TO THE
COAST AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED N OF POINT CONCEPTION
WITH ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR STRATUS FOR THE LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OFFSHORE TRENDS. FOR MON-TUE...BOTH MODELS ARE OUT OF
SYNC AS THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIF COAST
WHILE THE EC BRINGS IN A WEAK UPPER RIDGE. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT WHAT
EARLIER SHIFTS HAD... A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1800Z.

A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY 03/12Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. WEAK CAPPING INVERSION
OVER THE AREA WITH DISORGAINZED CLOUD FIELD WITH TOPS 3.5-4KFT MAY
STRENGTHEN AND DIFFER BY MINUS .5KFT THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK TO MODERATE
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 03/03Z AND AFTER 03/20Z OTHERWISE
FLAT GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1600 IS 3545 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 4831 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 18.6 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 035 THROUGH 02/20Z. CIGS 025 LIKELY BETWEEN
03/04-03/09Z AND 018 BETWEEN 03/09-03/17Z. CHANCE CIGS 027
BETWEEN 03/17-03/20Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 023 THROUGH 02/19Z. CIGS 013-019 LIKELY AFTER
03/03Z.


VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 021627
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN HEADING INTO
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...MORNING CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LYR AROUND
2500` AND TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
THUS, MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE
COAST BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PROBABLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THROUGH
FRIDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN A SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE UPPER LOW INTO
NRN NEVADA...WHILE THE EC MODEL SHOWS THE LOW FILLING IN AS IT PULLS
NE INTO IDAHO. THE GFS 500 MB ENSEMBLE SEEMS TO BE A BIT
INCONSISTENT FROM SATURDAY ON. SO FIGURING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A
TAD FARTHER NE ON SATURDAY. STILL ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES. ONE NOTABLE ISSUE IS THAT ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE GFS IS
INDICATING A DECENT SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT. IF THIS HOLDS
TRUE...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS WITH SOME WARMING TO THE
COAST AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED N OF POINT CONCEPTION
WITH ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR STRATUS FOR THE LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OFFSHORE TRENDS. FOR MON-TUE...BOTH MODELS ARE OUT OF
SYNC AS THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIF COAST
WHILE THE EC BRINGS IN A WEAK UPPER RIDGE. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT WHAT
EARLIER SHIFTS HAD... A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1145Z.

AT 1107Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS 3100 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AROUND 5100 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEG CELSIUS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
COASTAL SLOPES. N OF PT CONCEPTION PATCHY LOW MVFR TO IFR
CIGS WERE AFFECTING THE CENTRAL COAST. ABOVE THE STRATUS
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES S OF PT CONCEPTION
THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING OF THE STRATUS TO BE FAIRLY SLOW
TODAY. CIGS MAY LINGER IN SOME AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AS
WELL. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS AGAIN IN MOST COASTAL AREAS
TONIGHT/THU MORNING...WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 021627
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN HEADING INTO
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...MORNING CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LYR AROUND
2500` AND TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
THUS, MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE
COAST BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PROBABLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THROUGH
FRIDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN A SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE UPPER LOW INTO
NRN NEVADA...WHILE THE EC MODEL SHOWS THE LOW FILLING IN AS IT PULLS
NE INTO IDAHO. THE GFS 500 MB ENSEMBLE SEEMS TO BE A BIT
INCONSISTENT FROM SATURDAY ON. SO FIGURING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A
TAD FARTHER NE ON SATURDAY. STILL ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES. ONE NOTABLE ISSUE IS THAT ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE GFS IS
INDICATING A DECENT SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT. IF THIS HOLDS
TRUE...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS WITH SOME WARMING TO THE
COAST AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED N OF POINT CONCEPTION
WITH ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR STRATUS FOR THE LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OFFSHORE TRENDS. FOR MON-TUE...BOTH MODELS ARE OUT OF
SYNC AS THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIF COAST
WHILE THE EC BRINGS IN A WEAK UPPER RIDGE. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT WHAT
EARLIER SHIFTS HAD... A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1145Z.

AT 1107Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS 3100 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AROUND 5100 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEG CELSIUS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
COASTAL SLOPES. N OF PT CONCEPTION PATCHY LOW MVFR TO IFR
CIGS WERE AFFECTING THE CENTRAL COAST. ABOVE THE STRATUS
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES S OF PT CONCEPTION
THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING OF THE STRATUS TO BE FAIRLY SLOW
TODAY. CIGS MAY LINGER IN SOME AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AS
WELL. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS AGAIN IN MOST COASTAL AREAS
TONIGHT/THU MORNING...WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 021627
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN HEADING INTO
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...MORNING CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LYR AROUND
2500` AND TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
THUS, MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE
COAST BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PROBABLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THROUGH
FRIDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN A SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE UPPER LOW INTO
NRN NEVADA...WHILE THE EC MODEL SHOWS THE LOW FILLING IN AS IT PULLS
NE INTO IDAHO. THE GFS 500 MB ENSEMBLE SEEMS TO BE A BIT
INCONSISTENT FROM SATURDAY ON. SO FIGURING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A
TAD FARTHER NE ON SATURDAY. STILL ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES. ONE NOTABLE ISSUE IS THAT ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE GFS IS
INDICATING A DECENT SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT. IF THIS HOLDS
TRUE...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS WITH SOME WARMING TO THE
COAST AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED N OF POINT CONCEPTION
WITH ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR STRATUS FOR THE LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OFFSHORE TRENDS. FOR MON-TUE...BOTH MODELS ARE OUT OF
SYNC AS THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIF COAST
WHILE THE EC BRINGS IN A WEAK UPPER RIDGE. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT WHAT
EARLIER SHIFTS HAD... A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1145Z.

AT 1107Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS 3100 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AROUND 5100 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEG CELSIUS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
COASTAL SLOPES. N OF PT CONCEPTION PATCHY LOW MVFR TO IFR
CIGS WERE AFFECTING THE CENTRAL COAST. ABOVE THE STRATUS
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES S OF PT CONCEPTION
THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING OF THE STRATUS TO BE FAIRLY SLOW
TODAY. CIGS MAY LINGER IN SOME AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AS
WELL. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS AGAIN IN MOST COASTAL AREAS
TONIGHT/THU MORNING...WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 021627
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN HEADING INTO
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...MORNING CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LYR AROUND
2500` AND TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
THUS, MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE
COAST BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PROBABLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THROUGH
FRIDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN A SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE UPPER LOW INTO
NRN NEVADA...WHILE THE EC MODEL SHOWS THE LOW FILLING IN AS IT PULLS
NE INTO IDAHO. THE GFS 500 MB ENSEMBLE SEEMS TO BE A BIT
INCONSISTENT FROM SATURDAY ON. SO FIGURING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A
TAD FARTHER NE ON SATURDAY. STILL ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES. ONE NOTABLE ISSUE IS THAT ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE GFS IS
INDICATING A DECENT SURFACE OFFSHORE GRADIENT. IF THIS HOLDS
TRUE...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS WITH SOME WARMING TO THE
COAST AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED N OF POINT CONCEPTION
WITH ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR STRATUS FOR THE LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OFFSHORE TRENDS. FOR MON-TUE...BOTH MODELS ARE OUT OF
SYNC AS THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIF COAST
WHILE THE EC BRINGS IN A WEAK UPPER RIDGE. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT WHAT
EARLIER SHIFTS HAD... A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1145Z.

AT 1107Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS 3100 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AROUND 5100 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEG CELSIUS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
COASTAL SLOPES. N OF PT CONCEPTION PATCHY LOW MVFR TO IFR
CIGS WERE AFFECTING THE CENTRAL COAST. ABOVE THE STRATUS
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES S OF PT CONCEPTION
THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING OF THE STRATUS TO BE FAIRLY SLOW
TODAY. CIGS MAY LINGER IN SOME AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AS
WELL. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS AGAIN IN MOST COASTAL AREAS
TONIGHT/THU MORNING...WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




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