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000
FXUS66 KLOX 240410
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST FOR SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. WARMER WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...THE MARINE INVERSION AT LAX EARLY THIS
EVENING WAS ONLY AROUND 500 FT DEEP. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WERE ABSENT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS S OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS EVENING. PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN OFF
THE COAST. N OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY FORMING
ALONG AND OFF THE SLO COUNTY COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND PUSH INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
COAST ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THRU THE NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA THRU
FRI. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE E PAC IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
MAINLY CENTRAL CA FRI NIGHT THEN MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH A DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SAT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROFFINESS WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. IT LOOKS LIKE MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS WILL BECOME MORE
EXTENSIVE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SOME COASTAL AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION.
CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA
COUNTIES ON SAT. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE L.A./VTU COUNTY
COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SOME CLOUDINESS
WILL DEVELOP ON THE N MTN SLOPES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU SUN. BROAD S TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. GOOD ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAT...THEN THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE NW TO N OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE MTNS ALONG THE
I-5 CORRIDOR...AND IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS SAT
NIGHT AS WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN
MANY AREAS ON FRI...THEN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...AND TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP JUST A BIT ON MONDAY AS A RESULT OF
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
AS FAR AS THE FORECAST PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS THAT EACH MODEL
BUILDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. EACH FORECAST PEAK RIDGE
HEIGHTS AROUND 588 DM AND ABOUT 586 DM OVER SOCAL...BUT THE GFS PUTS
THE AXIS JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF SOCAL...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AXIS
FURTHER EAST...WHICH WOULD NOT WARM TEMPS QUITE AS MUCH. THE GFS HAS
SHOWN MORE CONSISTENCY OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS AND AGREES WELL WITH
ITS ENSEMBLES. THE GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED CONSISTENTLY FROM RUN TO RUN
UP TO ITS LATEST SOLUTION. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY COULD BE BACK TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND VALLEYS.

THE OTHER STORY TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE EXTENDED IS THE MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW PLUS NIGHTLY OCCURRENCES OF SUNDOWNERS THAT DEVELOP IN
THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT EVEN IN THE EC STARTING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THESE WINDS...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS...AND
DRY FUELS...WILL LIKELY BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE AREA
AND DEPENDING ON HOW LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY DROP.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2355Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2315Z WAS 550
FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 25 DEGREES C.

GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL THE AIRFIELDS THRU FRI. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE
AT KSBP WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
13Z-17Z...AND AT KSMX WHERE THERE IS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND LIFR CIGS 10Z-17Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED AT THESE AIRFIELDS THRU FRI.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...23/800 PM...

IT IS LIKELY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE SUNDAY AND THERE IS
A CHANCE GALES WILL EXIST FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
10-60NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 800 NM
WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN WHILE MOVING
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM A FETCH WITH LIMITED
LENGTH AND SHORT-LIVED AND ORIENTED 300-310 DEGREES TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LATER COMBINE WITH LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS SUNDAY AND
CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/JACKSON
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 232359 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST FOR SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. WARMER WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-SUN)...ALL IS PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD STAY THAT WAY THROUGH TOMORROW. TEMPS
BEHAVING FAIRLY WELL...ALL EXCEPT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE
OFFSHORE FLOW HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED. WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF THE
DIGGING EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO TODAY`S ALONG WITH A SIMILAR CLEAR SKY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AT
LEAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS...MEANWHILE THE NAM KEEPS US IN WEAK
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS. THE GFS SOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE GIVEN THE
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALBEIT
LIGHT AND ISOLATED...NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COOL FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH...BUT AGAIN NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF. LEFT CURRENT
FORECAST POPS AS IS.  OVERALL NOT MUCH MEASURABLE EXPECTED AT
ALL...IF ANY... WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. 1000-500 THICKNESS VALUES DROP ANYWHERE FROM 80 TO
60 DM GOING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TO DROP TEMPERATURES A GOOD 5 TO 10
DEGREES FROM THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SECONDARY
VORT LOBE SWINGING THROUGH ON SUNDAY TO DROP TEMPS FURTHER. MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO PILE INTO THE NORTH SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY AND ADDED
SOME SLIGHT POPS THERE FOR SUNDAY. MARINE LAYER ALSO DEEPENS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SO EXPECT A RETURN OF OVERNIGHT COASTAL STRATUS.

SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERT...FIRST WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN BY
SUNDAY SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...INCLUDING THROUGH THE I-5
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP JUST A BIT ON MONDAY AS A RESULT OF
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
AS FAR AS THE FORECAST PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS THAT EACH MODEL
BUILDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. EACH FORECAST PEAK RIDGE
HEIGHTS AROUND 588 DM AND ABOUT 586 DM OVER SOCAL...BUT THE GFS PUTS
THE AXIS JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF SOCAL...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AXIS
FURTHER EAST...WHICH WOULD NOT WARM TEMPS QUITE AS MUCH. THE GFS HAS
SHOWN MORE CONSISTENCY OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS AND AGREES WELL WITH
ITS ENSEMBLES. THE GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED CONSISTENTLY FROM RUN TO RUN
UP TO ITS LATEST SOLUTION. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY COULD BE BACK TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND VALLEYS.

THE OTHER STORY TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE EXTENDED IS THE MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW PLUS NIGHTLY OCCURRENCES OF SUNDOWNERS THAT DEVELOP IN
THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT EVEN IN THE EC STARTING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THESE WINDS...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS...AND
DRY FUELS...WILL LIKELY BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE AREA
AND DEPENDING ON HOW LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY DROP.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2355Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2315Z WAS 550
FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 25 DEGREES C.

GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL THE AIRFIELDS THRU FRI. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE
AT KSBP WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
13Z-17Z...AND AT KSMX WHERE THERE IS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND LIFR CIGS 10Z-17Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED AT THESE AIRFIELDS THRU FRI.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...23/130 PM...

IT IS LIKELY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE SUNDAY AND THERE IS
A CHANCE GALES WILL EXIST FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
10-60NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 800 NM
WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN WHILE MOVING
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM A FETCH WITH LIMITED
LENGTH AND SHORT-LIVED AND ORIENTED 300-310 DEGREES TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LATER COMBINE WITH LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS SUNDAY AND
CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 232031
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL
130 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST FOR SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. WARMER WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-SUN)...ALL IS PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD STAY THAT WAY THROUGH TOMORROW. TEMPS
BEHAVING FAIRLY WELL...ALL EXCEPT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE
OFFSHORE FLOW HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED. WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF THE
DIGGING EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO TODAY`S ALONG WITH A SIMILAR CLEAR SKY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AT
LEAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS...MEANWHILE THE NAM KEEPS US IN WEAK
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS. THE GFS SOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE GIVEN THE
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALBEIT
LIGHT AND ISOLATED...NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COOL FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH...BUT AGAIN NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF. LEFT CURRENT
FORECAST POPS AS IS.  OVERALL NOT MUCH MEASURABLE EXPECTED AT
ALL...IF ANY... WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. 1000-500 THICKNESS VALUES DROP ANYWHERE FROM 80 TO
60 DM GOING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TO DROP TEMPERATURES A GOOD 5 TO 10
DEGREES FROM THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SECONDARY
VORT LOBE SWINGING THROUGH ON SUNDAY TO DROP TEMPS FURTHER. MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO PILE INTO THE NORTH SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY AND ADDED
SOME SLIGHT POPS THERE FOR SUNDAY. MARINE LAYER ALSO DEEPENS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SO EXPECT A RETURN OF OVERNIGHT COASTAL STRATUS.

SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERT...FIRST WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN BY
SUNDAY SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...INCLUDING THROUGH THE I-5
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP JUST A BIT ON MONDAY AS A RESULT OF
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
AS FAR AS THE FORECAST PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS THAT EACH MODEL
BUILDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. EACH FORECAST PEAK RIDGE
HEIGHTS AROUND 588 DM AND ABOUT 586 DM OVER SOCAL...BUT THE GFS PUTS
THE AXIS JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF SOCAL...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AXIS
FURTHER EAST...WHICH WOULD NOT WARM TEMPS QUITE AS MUCH. THE GFS HAS
SHOWN MORE CONSISTENCY OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS AND AGREES WELL WITH
ITS ENSEMBLES. THE GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED CONSISTENTLY FROM RUN TO RUN
UP TO ITS LATEST SOLUTION. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY COULD BE BACK TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND VALLEYS.

THE OTHER STORY TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE EXTENDED IS THE MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW PLUS NIGHTLY OCCURRENCES OF SUNDOWNERS THAT DEVELOP IN
THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT EVEN IN THE EC STARTING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THESE WINDS...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS...AND
DRY FUELS...WILL LIKELY BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE AREA
AND DEPENDING ON HOW LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY DROP.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST
BY 24/04Z AND THEN MODERATE SOUTH AFTER 24/16Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS BECOME MODERATE SOUTH WINDS BY 24/22Z. MARINE INVERSION
WAS NEAR THE SURFACE WITH A ISOLATED CLOUD FIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA.
INVERSION AND CLOUD FIELD WILL DIFFER LITTLE FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 24/04Z THEN RELATIVELY FLAT
GRADIENT BETWEEN 24/04-24/17Z THEN MODERATE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AFTER
24/17Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1545Z WAS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS AT 2373 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES C.

KLAX...THERE IS A CHANCE CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

KBUR...IT IS VERY LIKELY CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...23/130 PM...

IT IS LIKELY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE SUNDAY AND THERE IS
A CHANCE GALES WILL EXIST FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
10-60NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 800 NM
WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN WHILE MOVING
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM A FETCH WITH LIMITED
LENGTH AND SHORT-LIVED AND ORIENTED 300-310 DEGREES TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LATER COMBINE WITH LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS SUNDAY AND
CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



















000
FXUS66 KLOX 231720
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1020 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST FOR SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. WARMER WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SAT)...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE FOR ONE
MORE DAY TO BRING ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF WARMING AND PLENTY OF SUNNY
SKIES. JUST SOME SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. MORNING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE A LITTLE MORE OFFSHORE THAN
EXPECTED BUT NOTHING TOO STRONG AT -1.6 FOR LAX-DAG. FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE ESSENTIALLY A REPEAT OF TODAY...DESPITE HEIGHTS LEVELING
OFF SOME AND EVEN BEGINNING TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE WEEKEND`S
TROUGH PASSAGE. LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN 12Z MODELS AND THEIR
HANDLING THE TROUGH...SO EXPECT TO CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST IF NOT
TRIM WHAT POPS THERE ARE UP NORTH BACK A BIT.

FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OVERALL...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS BUILDS A GOOD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH FLATTER RIDGE. NEAR THE SURFACE...A WEST TO
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER.

FORECAST-WISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER DULL DAYS. WITH
THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT...ANY STRATUS SHOULD BE CONFINED SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...AND WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE
THE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE (A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS).

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES NOTICEABLY. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...A DECENT OFFSHORE EVENT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES BETTER...THEN
TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL BE TEMPERED AND ANY OFFSHORE WINDS WOULD
BE MUCH WEAKER AND MORE LOCALIZED. AT THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE A
MODERATE WARMING TREND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ANY STRATUS CONFINED
TO THE LOS ANGELES COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST
BY 24/04Z AND THEN MODERATE SOUTH AFTER 24/16Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS BECOME MODERATE SOUTH WINDS BY 24/22Z. MARINE INVERSION
WAS NEAR THE SURFACE WITH A ISOLATED CLOUD FIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA.
INVERSION AND CLOUD FIELD WILL DIFFER LITTLE FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 24/04Z THEN RELATIVELY FLAT
GRADIENT BETWEEN 24/04-24/17Z THEN MODERATE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AFTER
24/17Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1545Z WAS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS AT 2373 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES C.

KLAX...THERE IS A CHANCE CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

KBUR...IT IS VERY LIKELY CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...23/900 AM...

IT IS LIKELY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE SUNDAY AND THERE IS
A CHANCE GALES WILL EXIST FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
10-60NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 800 NM
WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN WHILE MOVING
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM A FETCH WITH LIMITED
LENGTH AND SHORT-LIVED AND ORIENTED 300-310 DEGREES TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LATER COMBINE WITH LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS SUNDAY AND
CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 231635
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST FOR SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. WARMER WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SAT)...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE FOR ONE
MORE DAY TO BRING ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF WARMING AND PLENTY OF SUNNY
SKIES. JUST SOME SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. MORNING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE A LITTLE MORE OFFSHORE THAN
EXPECTED BUT NOTHING TOO STRONG AT -1.6 FOR LAX-DAG. FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE ESSENTIALLY A REPEAT OF TODAY...DESPITE HEIGHTS LEVELING
OFF SOME AND EVEN BEGINNING TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE WEEKEND`S
TROUGH PASSAGE. LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN 12Z MODELS AND THEIR
HANDLING THE TROUGH...SO EXPECT TO CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST IF NOT
TRIM WHAT POPS THERE ARE UP NORTH BACK A BIT.

FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OVERALL...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS BUILDS A GOOD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH FLATTER RIDGE. NEAR THE SURFACE...A WEST TO
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER.

FORECAST-WISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER DULL DAYS. WITH
THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT...ANY STRATUS SHOULD BE CONFINED SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...AND WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE
THE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE (A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS).

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES NOTICEABLY. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...A DECENT OFFSHORE EVENT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES BETTER...THEN
TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL BE TEMPERED AND ANY OFFSHORE WINDS WOULD
BE MUCH WEAKER AND MORE LOCALIZED. AT THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE A
MODERATE WARMING TREND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ANY STRATUS CONFINED
TO THE LOS ANGELES COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1125Z...
THE INVERSION AT 1110Z WAS BASED AT THE SFC. THE INVERSION TOP WAS
2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS NEAR
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z
FRI.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD.


&&

.MARINE...23/900 AM...

IT IS LIKELY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE SUNDAY AND THERE IS
A CHANCE GALES WILL EXIST FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
10-60NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 800 NM
WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN WHILE MOVING
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM A FETCH WITH LIMITED
LENGTH AND SHORT-LIVED AND ORIENTED 300-310 DEGREES TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LATER COMBINE WITH LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS SUNDAY AND
CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/30
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 231635
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST FOR SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. WARMER WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SAT)...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE FOR ONE
MORE DAY TO BRING ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF WARMING AND PLENTY OF SUNNY
SKIES. JUST SOME SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. MORNING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE A LITTLE MORE OFFSHORE THAN
EXPECTED BUT NOTHING TOO STRONG AT -1.6 FOR LAX-DAG. FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE ESSENTIALLY A REPEAT OF TODAY...DESPITE HEIGHTS LEVELING
OFF SOME AND EVEN BEGINNING TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE WEEKEND`S
TROUGH PASSAGE. LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN 12Z MODELS AND THEIR
HANDLING THE TROUGH...SO EXPECT TO CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST IF NOT
TRIM WHAT POPS THERE ARE UP NORTH BACK A BIT.

FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OVERALL...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS BUILDS A GOOD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH FLATTER RIDGE. NEAR THE SURFACE...A WEST TO
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER.

FORECAST-WISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER DULL DAYS. WITH
THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT...ANY STRATUS SHOULD BE CONFINED SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...AND WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE
THE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE (A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS).

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES NOTICEABLY. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...A DECENT OFFSHORE EVENT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES BETTER...THEN
TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL BE TEMPERED AND ANY OFFSHORE WINDS WOULD
BE MUCH WEAKER AND MORE LOCALIZED. AT THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE A
MODERATE WARMING TREND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ANY STRATUS CONFINED
TO THE LOS ANGELES COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1125Z...
THE INVERSION AT 1110Z WAS BASED AT THE SFC. THE INVERSION TOP WAS
2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS NEAR
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z
FRI.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD.


&&

.MARINE...23/900 AM...

IT IS LIKELY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE SUNDAY AND THERE IS
A CHANCE GALES WILL EXIST FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
10-60NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 800 NM
WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN WHILE MOVING
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM A FETCH WITH LIMITED
LENGTH AND SHORT-LIVED AND ORIENTED 300-310 DEGREES TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LATER COMBINE WITH LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS SUNDAY AND
CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/30
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 231130
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL COAST. THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP YET AGAIN...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OFFSHORE BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY/FRIDAY THEN A TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL
GRADIENTS WILL PREVAIL (WEAK ONSHORE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND
WEAK OFFSHORE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS).

FORECAST-WISE...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER UNREMARKABLE.
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AT NIGHT...THERE
IS MODERATE/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS REMAINING
STRATUS-FREE. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WITH VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
BUT SLIGHT WARMING ALL OTHER AREAS. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
COMFORTABLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FOR THE
DISTRICT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST COAST. WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT WHEN IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...SO WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF SAN LUIS
OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...WITH THIS PATTERN
WILL EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL
STRATUS COVERAGE. WITH THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND BIT MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOTICEABLE TUMBLE.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OVERALL...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS BUILDS A GOOD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH FLATTER RIDGE. NEAR THE SURFACE...A WEST TO
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER.

FORECAST-WISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER DULL DAYS. WITH
THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT...ANY STRATUS SHOULD BE CONFINED SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...AND WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE
THE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE (A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS).

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES NOTICEABLY. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...A DECENT OFFSHORE EVENT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES BETTER...THEN
TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL BE TEMPERED AND ANY OFFSHORE WINDS WOULD
BE MUCH WEAKER AND MORE LOCALIZED. AT THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE A
MODERATE WARMING TREND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ANY STRATUS CONFINED
TO THE LOS ANGELES COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1125Z...
THE INVERSION AT 1110Z WAS BASED AT THE SFC. THE INVERSION TOP WAS
2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS NEAR
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z
FRI.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD.


&&

.MARINE...23/330 AM...
THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WINDS OR SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 230951
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL COAST. THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP YET AGAIN...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OFFSHORE BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY/FRIDAY THEN A TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL
GRADIENTS WILL PREVAIL (WEAK ONSHORE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND
WEAK OFFSHORE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS).

FORECAST-WISE...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER UNREMARKABLE.
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AT NIGHT...THERE
IS MODERATE/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS REMAINING
STRATUS-FREE. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WITH VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
BUT SLIGHT WARMING ALL OTHER AREAS. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
COMFORTABLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FOR THE
DISTRICT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST COAST. WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT WHEN IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...SO WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF SAN LUIS
OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...WITH THIS PATTERN
WILL EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL
STRATUS COVERAGE. WITH THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND BIT MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOTICEABLE TUMBLE.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OVERALL...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS BUILDS A GOOD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH FLATTER RIDGE. NEAR THE SURFACE...A WEST TO
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER.

FORECAST-WISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER DULL DAYS. WITH
THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT...ANY STRATUS SHOULD BE CONFINED SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...AND WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE
THE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE (A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS).

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES NOTICEABLY. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...A DECENT OFFSHORE EVENT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES BETTER...THEN
TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL BE TEMPERED AND ANY OFFSHORE WINDS WOULD
BE MUCH WEAKER AND MORE LOCALIZED. AT THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE A
MODERATE WARMING TREND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ANY STRATUS CONFINED
TO THE LOS ANGELES COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1130Z...

WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...23/230 AM...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 230951
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL COAST. THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP YET AGAIN...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OFFSHORE BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY/FRIDAY THEN A TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL
GRADIENTS WILL PREVAIL (WEAK ONSHORE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND
WEAK OFFSHORE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS).

FORECAST-WISE...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER UNREMARKABLE.
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AT NIGHT...THERE
IS MODERATE/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS REMAINING
STRATUS-FREE. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WITH VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
BUT SLIGHT WARMING ALL OTHER AREAS. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
COMFORTABLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FOR THE
DISTRICT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST COAST. WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT WHEN IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...SO WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF SAN LUIS
OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...WITH THIS PATTERN
WILL EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL
STRATUS COVERAGE. WITH THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND BIT MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOTICEABLE TUMBLE.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OVERALL...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS BUILDS A GOOD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH FLATTER RIDGE. NEAR THE SURFACE...A WEST TO
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER.

FORECAST-WISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER DULL DAYS. WITH
THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT...ANY STRATUS SHOULD BE CONFINED SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...AND WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE
THE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE (A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS).

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES NOTICEABLY. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...A DECENT OFFSHORE EVENT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES BETTER...THEN
TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL BE TEMPERED AND ANY OFFSHORE WINDS WOULD
BE MUCH WEAKER AND MORE LOCALIZED. AT THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE A
MODERATE WARMING TREND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ANY STRATUS CONFINED
TO THE LOS ANGELES COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1130Z...

WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...23/230 AM...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 230406
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
905 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY. WARMING IS
LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...THE MARINE INVERSION AT LAX EARLY THIS
EVENING WAS AROUND 900 FT DEEP. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WERE ABSENT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH FAIR SKIES AND A FEW HI
CLOUDS AT TIMES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WEAK EDDY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOCAL BIGHT LATER TONIGHT WHICH MAY HELP TO DEVELOP A FEW LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY S OF THE PALOS VERDES PENINSULA...
WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE IMMEDIATE L.A. COUNTY
COAST ESPECIALLY AROUND LONG BEACH BY DAYBREAK THU.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA ON
THU...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRI. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE
E PAC IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH MAINLY CENTRAL CA THRU THE DAY ON SAT.
AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS CAN BE EXPECTED THU MORNING...AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT MAINLY OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES. THIS WILL
LIMIT ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR
THE SOUTHERN L.A. COUNTY COAST. FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SOME
INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST. CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM A
DYING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES BY SAT AS
WELL. THE 00Z NAM IS FORECASTING DECENT MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 MB AND
700 MB MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE S AND SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE...WHILE THE 18Z GFS SHUNTS THIS MOISTURE WELL S
AND E OF THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. OVERALL...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THRU FRI...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR SAT. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY
WARMER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY OVER SLO/SBA
COUNTIES ON SAT...WITH NOT AS MUCH COOLING ELSEWHERE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...THE COOLING CONTINUES ON SUNDAY TO MAKE IT
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING
STRATUS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL LA AND VTU COUNTIES.

AFTER SUNDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AGAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS FAR AS HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL OCCUR. THE
GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EC
ACTUALLY PUTS A WEAK PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
GFS HAS SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO FAR. IN
GENERAL FORECAST REFLECTS A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT
NOTHING TOO WILD.

&&

.AVIATION...22/2355Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2300Z WAS 700
FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 24 DEGREES C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL THE AIRFIELDS THRU THU. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE
AT KLGB WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT
11Z-15Z THU...WITH A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING...AND AT
KLAX WHERE MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE 12Z-16Z. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AT THESE AIRFIELDS THRU THU.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU THU EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
12Z-16Z. THERE IS ALSO A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THU.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00S TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME RESURGENT
ON SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AGAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/JACKSON
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 222357 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
455 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY. WARMING IS
LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAY`S READINGS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE TO
HELP KEEP SKIES CLEAR...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGHS WILL BE DECENTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WEAK TO NEUTRAL OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE ONLY REAL CHANCE AT OVERNIGHT
STRATUS MIGHT BE SOME FORMING OVER THE LONG BEACH AREA TONIGHT.
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK EDDY FORMING BUT NOT THAT STRONG.

AS EVIDENT IN HEIGHT FALLS MIDDAY FRIDAY...THINGS BEGIN
TRANSITIONING ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE WEEKEND`S TROUGH PASSAGE.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SPEED AND INTENSITY
OF THE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE SOMETIME SATURDAY
AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK AND WASHED OUT COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWING THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY. FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH PUNCH TO
IT AT ALL THIS FAR SOUTH. MODEL QPF REMAINS HEAVIEST MUCH FURTHER TO
OUR NORTH WHERE THERE`S BETTER FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON
SATURDAY. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE LOOKS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
TRIMMED POPS BACK JUST A BIT TO REFLECT THAT VIEW.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE COOLING CONTINUES ON SUNDAY TO MAKE IT THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING STRATUS POSSIBLE OVER
COASTAL LA AND VTU COUNTIES.

AFTER SUNDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AGAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS FAR AS HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL OCCUR. THE
GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EC
ACTUALLY PUTS A WEAK PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
GFS HAS SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO FAR. IN
GENERAL FORECAST REFLECTS A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT
NOTHING TOO WILD.

&&

.AVIATION...22/2355Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2300Z WAS 700
FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 24 DEGREES C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL THE AIRFIELDS THRU THU. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE
AT KLGB WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT
11Z-15Z THU...WITH A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING...AND AT
KLAX WHERE MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE 12Z-16Z. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AT THESE AIRFIELDS THRU THU.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU THU EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
12Z-16Z. THERE IS ALSO A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THU.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00S TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...22/200 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME RESURGENT
ON SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AGAIN POSSIBLE.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 222357 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
455 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY. WARMING IS
LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAY`S READINGS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE TO
HELP KEEP SKIES CLEAR...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGHS WILL BE DECENTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WEAK TO NEUTRAL OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE ONLY REAL CHANCE AT OVERNIGHT
STRATUS MIGHT BE SOME FORMING OVER THE LONG BEACH AREA TONIGHT.
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK EDDY FORMING BUT NOT THAT STRONG.

AS EVIDENT IN HEIGHT FALLS MIDDAY FRIDAY...THINGS BEGIN
TRANSITIONING ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE WEEKEND`S TROUGH PASSAGE.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SPEED AND INTENSITY
OF THE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE SOMETIME SATURDAY
AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK AND WASHED OUT COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWING THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY. FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH PUNCH TO
IT AT ALL THIS FAR SOUTH. MODEL QPF REMAINS HEAVIEST MUCH FURTHER TO
OUR NORTH WHERE THERE`S BETTER FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON
SATURDAY. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE LOOKS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
TRIMMED POPS BACK JUST A BIT TO REFLECT THAT VIEW.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE COOLING CONTINUES ON SUNDAY TO MAKE IT THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING STRATUS POSSIBLE OVER
COASTAL LA AND VTU COUNTIES.

AFTER SUNDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AGAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS FAR AS HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL OCCUR. THE
GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EC
ACTUALLY PUTS A WEAK PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
GFS HAS SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO FAR. IN
GENERAL FORECAST REFLECTS A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT
NOTHING TOO WILD.

&&

.AVIATION...22/2355Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2300Z WAS 700
FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 24 DEGREES C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL THE AIRFIELDS THRU THU. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE
AT KLGB WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT
11Z-15Z THU...WITH A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING...AND AT
KLAX WHERE MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE 12Z-16Z. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AT THESE AIRFIELDS THRU THU.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU THU EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
12Z-16Z. THERE IS ALSO A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THU.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00S TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...22/200 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME RESURGENT
ON SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AGAIN POSSIBLE.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 222119
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
219 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY. WARMING IS
LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAY`S READINGS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE TO
HELP KEEP SKIES CLEAR...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGHS WILL BE DECENTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WEAK TO NEUTRAL OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE ONLY REAL CHANCE AT OVERNIGHT
STRATUS MIGHT BE SOME FORMING OVER THE LONG BEACH AREA TONIGHT.
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK EDDY FORMING BUT NOT THAT STRONG.

AS EVIDENT IN HEIGHT FALLS MIDDAY FRIDAY...THINGS BEGIN
TRANSITIONING ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE WEEKEND`S TROUGH PASSAGE.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SPEED AND INTENSITY
OF THE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE SOMETIME SATURDAY
AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK AND WASHED OUT COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWING THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY. FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH PUNCH TO
IT AT ALL THIS FAR SOUTH. MODEL QPF REMAINS HEAVIEST MUCH FURTHER TO
OUR NORTH WHERE THERE`S BETTER FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON
SATURDAY. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE LOOKS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
TRIMMED POPS BACK JUST A BIT TO REFLECT THAT VIEW.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE COOLING CONTINUES ON SUNDAY TO MAKE IT THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING STRATUS POSSIBLE OVER
COASTAL LA AND VTU COUNTIES.

AFTER SUNDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AGAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS FAR AS HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL OCCUR. THE
GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EC
ACTUALLY PUTS A WEAK PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
GFS HAS SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO FAR. IN
GENERAL FORECAST REFLECTS A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT
NOTHING TOO WILD.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1713Z WAS 1100 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS...ALBEIT SOME DOUBT ABOUT KLGB AND
WHETHER LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THAT SITE WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ALL OTHER TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...22/200 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME RESURGENT
ON SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AGAIN POSSIBLE.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 221847
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1145 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-FRI)...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW SPELL SUNNY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP THIS MORNING.
LATEST LAX TO DAG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS -1.9 TO HELP KEEP AWAY ANY
COASTAL STRATUS. HIGHS TODAY ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOW 70S
BEACHES...THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND VALLEYS AND AROUND 80 DESERTS.
OVERALL. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY TODAY. ONLY REAL FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY IS
THE LOCALLY GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS.  THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT SO SOME STRATUS MAY SNEAK INTO LA
COUNTY TONIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...THEN COOLING
THIS WEEKEND UNDER A PASSING TROUGH.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
A BIG CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A TROF AND
THE OFFSHORE FLOW FLIPS TO ONSHORE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER AND THINK IT WILL BE ANOTHER
DAY BEFORE THERE IS WIDESPREAD STRATUS. SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS A WEAK SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF. EC HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS GUNG HO RAIN
FCST IT HAD LAST NIGHT. IT STILL BRINGS RAIN THROUGH MOST OF SBA AND
SLO COUNTIES BUT NOW IT IS DRY ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTY. THE OTHER
MDLS HAVE A WEAKER AND DRIER FRONT AND DO NOT BRING ANY RAIN TO THE
AREA. SO RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHC POPS LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS WILL BE THE
BIG STORY WITH MAX TEMPS FALLING 6 TO 12 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE TROF AND SFC FRONT SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION SO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THERE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN MORNING. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS OF VTA AND LA COUNTY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7 WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND 576 DM HGTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4
TO 8 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

A WEAK RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHER HGTS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE MARINE INVERSION AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORE LOW
CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE AND THE SFC FLO WILL TREND
OFFSHORE THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT
NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1713Z WAS 1100 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS...ALBEIT SOME DOUBT ABOUT KLGB AND
WHETHER LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THAT SITE WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ALL OTHER TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...22/935 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCAL WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

THE RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 221634
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-FRI)...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW SPELL SUNNY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP THIS MORNING.
LATEST LAX TO DAG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS -1.9 TO HELP KEEP AWAY ANY
COASTAL STRATUS. HIGHS TODAY ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOW 70S
BEACHES...THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND VALLEYS AND AROUND 80 DESERTS.
OVERALL. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY TODAY. ONLY REAL FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY IS
THE LOCALLY GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS.  THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT SO SOME STRATUS MAY SNEAK INTO LA
COUNTY TONIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...THEN COOLING
THIS WEEKEND UNDER A PASSING TROUGH.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
A BIG CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A TROF AND
THE OFFSHORE FLOW FLIPS TO ONSHORE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER AND THINK IT WILL BE ANOTHER
DAY BEFORE THERE IS WIDESPREAD STRATUS. SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS A WEAK SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF. EC HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS GUNG HO RAIN
FCST IT HAD LAST NIGHT. IT STILL BRINGS RAIN THROUGH MOST OF SBA AND
SLO COUNTIES BUT NOW IT IS DRY ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTY. THE OTHER
MDLS HAVE A WEAKER AND DRIER FRONT AND DO NOT BRING ANY RAIN TO THE
AREA. SO RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHC POPS LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS WILL BE THE
BIG STORY WITH MAX TEMPS FALLING 6 TO 12 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE TROF AND SFC FRONT SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION SO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THERE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN MORNING. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS OF VTA AND LA COUNTY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7 WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND 576 DM HGTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4
TO 8 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

A WEAK RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHER HGTS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE MARINE INVERSION AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORE LOW
CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE AND THE SFC FLO WILL TREND
OFFSHORE THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT
NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1000Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0700Z WAS 900 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS 12Z-16Z THIS MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/935 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCAL WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

THE RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET/RAT
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 221634
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-FRI)...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW SPELL SUNNY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP THIS MORNING.
LATEST LAX TO DAG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS -1.9 TO HELP KEEP AWAY ANY
COASTAL STRATUS. HIGHS TODAY ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOW 70S
BEACHES...THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND VALLEYS AND AROUND 80 DESERTS.
OVERALL. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY TODAY. ONLY REAL FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY IS
THE LOCALLY GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS.  THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT SO SOME STRATUS MAY SNEAK INTO LA
COUNTY TONIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...THEN COOLING
THIS WEEKEND UNDER A PASSING TROUGH.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
A BIG CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A TROF AND
THE OFFSHORE FLOW FLIPS TO ONSHORE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER AND THINK IT WILL BE ANOTHER
DAY BEFORE THERE IS WIDESPREAD STRATUS. SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS A WEAK SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF. EC HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS GUNG HO RAIN
FCST IT HAD LAST NIGHT. IT STILL BRINGS RAIN THROUGH MOST OF SBA AND
SLO COUNTIES BUT NOW IT IS DRY ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTY. THE OTHER
MDLS HAVE A WEAKER AND DRIER FRONT AND DO NOT BRING ANY RAIN TO THE
AREA. SO RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHC POPS LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS WILL BE THE
BIG STORY WITH MAX TEMPS FALLING 6 TO 12 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE TROF AND SFC FRONT SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION SO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THERE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN MORNING. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS OF VTA AND LA COUNTY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7 WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND 576 DM HGTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4
TO 8 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

A WEAK RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHER HGTS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE MARINE INVERSION AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORE LOW
CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE AND THE SFC FLO WILL TREND
OFFSHORE THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT
NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1000Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0700Z WAS 900 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS 12Z-16Z THIS MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/935 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCAL WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

THE RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET/RAT
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 221034
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM KBFL AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM KDAG
HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR THIS MORNING. HGTS WILL SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW AS AN EAST PAC RIDGE EXPANDS. SBA
SOUTH COAST SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND THE WIND ADVISORY
HAS EXPIRED. THE BEST WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AT THE
MOMENT. IT WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY TODAY WITH ALMOST ALL CST AND
VLY HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH SOME MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST WILL DRIVE MANY TEMPS UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THESE TEMPS WILL BE REACHED VERY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY QUICKLY COOL THINGS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TONIGHT. A LITTLE EDDY COULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO THE LONG BEACH-LAX AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME NORTHERLY OFFSHORE
WINDS BUT NOTHING REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY WILL LOOK A LOT LIKE TODAY SAVE FOR THE LONG BEACH LOW
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST.

NOT MUCH CHANGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT EITHER WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY EXCEPT OVER THE LONG BEACH AREA.

ON FRIDAY THE RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AS AN EAST PAC TROF
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE FLOW OVERHEAD TURN TO THE SW. HGTS WILL
STILL BE NEAR 585 DM 4 OR 5 DM HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THERE WILL STILL
BE OFFSHORE SFC FLOW JUST A LITTLE WEAKER THAN TODAY OR THU. SO OVER
ALL LOOK FOR A SUNNY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BUT JUST A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THU.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
A BIG CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A TROF AND
THE OFFSHORE FLOW FLIPS TO ONSHORE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER AND THINK IT WILL BE ANOTHER
DAY BEFORE THERE IS WIDESPREAD STRATUS. SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS A WEAK SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF. EC HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS GUNG HO RAIN
FCST IT HAD LAST NIGHT. IT STILL BRINGS RAIN THROUGH MOST OF SBA AND
SLO COUNTIES BUT NOW IT IS DRY ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTY. THE OTHER
MDLS HAVE A WEAKER AND DRIER FRONT AND DO NOT BRING ANY RAIN TO THE
AREA. SO RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHC POPS LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS WILL BE THE
BIG STORY WITH MAX TEMPS FALLING 6 TO 12 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE TROF AND SFC FRONT SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION SO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THERE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN MORNING. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS OF VTA AND LA COUNTY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7 WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND 576 DM HGTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4
TO 8 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

A WEAK RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHER HGTS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE MARINE INVERSION AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORE LOW
CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE AND THE SFC FLO WILL TREND
OFFSHORE THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT
NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1000Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0700Z WAS 900 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS 12Z-16Z THIS MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/245 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCAL WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

THE RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 220528 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1028 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-FRI)...HIGH TEMPS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS
IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE THE
SAN LUCIA MTN OFFSHORE WINDS HELPED TO CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE TODAY.
MOST VALLEYS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WHILE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION WERE JUST ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING CIRRUS
MOVING NW TO SE WITH THE BROAD UPPER NW FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. FOR NOW THERE IS
SOME STRATUS IN THE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN LA COUNTY COAST
AS A VERY WEAK EDDY DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH THIS DOMINANT NORTHERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-BFL AND SBA-SMX
WOULD THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...WHILE
SOME OF THE ENERGY WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND
NORTHERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SANTA CLARITA VALLEY SHOULD
RECEIVE GUSTS TO 30 WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...WHILE THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
405 CORRIDOR INTO VAN NUYS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE SANTA BARBARA
SOUTH COAST AND ALTHOUGH NW WINDS AROUND GAVIOTA HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
IMPRESSIVE...THE LATEST SBA-BFL GRADIENT WAS CLIMBING TO -5.2 MB.
THIS IS A FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND ZONE AFFECTING THE HILLS
ABOVE AND AROUND MONTECITO. SO WILL BE ADDING THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
TO GO ALONG WITH THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

ONLY CHANGES NEEDED TONIGHT WAS FOR THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES. A DECENT OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL FOCUS OUT OF THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL WARMING TO THE CENTRAL COAST TOMORROW AS WELL AS
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

AS FAR AS OFFSHORE WINDS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES...NOT LOOKING
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. LAX-DAG WILL LIMP TO JUST UNDER -2 MB BY WED
MORNING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST TOMORROW AND WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE...AND WITH WITH THE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE WITH TEMPS...WITH MORE WARMING FOR
THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS ON THU WHERE HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
FOR THE LA/VTU COAST. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK...TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY ALONG THE LA/VTU COAST ALLOWING A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PATHCY DENSE FOG RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST EARLY THU MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN A BIT
EARLIER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND POSSIBLY IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY FOR THE MOST PART. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THU/FRI.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MODELS ARE NOW ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACING
A DIGGING TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND AT THIS POINT
SWINGING ITS MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY. 12Z
GUIDANCE PUSHES A WEAK FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME LOW POPS OVER AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY...FRONT APPEARS PRETTY WEAK
THIS FAR SOUTH WITH BEST QPF WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEFT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION AS IS FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME DON`T EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE TROF`S INTENSITY
FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN.

THE PASSING TROUGH WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS 10 TO IN SOME PLACES 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND PLENTY BELOW
NORMAL...HELPING IT FEEL VERY FALL LIKE. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH PASSES AND
CANYONS.

SOME VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND EC PAST SUNDAY AS FAR AS
THE BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND SATURDAY`S TROUGH. BUT IN
GENERAL RISING HEIGHTS WILL WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONGEST ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0525Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z WAS 1100 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING AT KSMX...AND IFR CONDS AT KLGB
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN CLEAR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS 10Z-16Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...21/900 PM...

NORTHWEST GALES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...STRONGEST BETWEEN POINT CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. THE SOMEWHAT LONG PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED STRONG WINDS HAS PRODUCED LARGE COMBINED SEAS...AS SHORT
PERIOD WAVES COMBINE WITH A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. PEAK
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 10-14 FEET AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WINDS START TO SUBSIDE
AROUND 3 AM. FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL HOWEVER SEAS CONTINUE TO BE A LARGER MIX OF LONG AND
SHORTER PERIODS...PEAKING AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET AT 7-8 SECONDS.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT SMALL CRAFT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...FALLING BELOW 10 FEET BY THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/JACKSON
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 220528 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1028 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-FRI)...HIGH TEMPS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS
IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE THE
SAN LUCIA MTN OFFSHORE WINDS HELPED TO CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE TODAY.
MOST VALLEYS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WHILE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION WERE JUST ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING CIRRUS
MOVING NW TO SE WITH THE BROAD UPPER NW FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. FOR NOW THERE IS
SOME STRATUS IN THE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN LA COUNTY COAST
AS A VERY WEAK EDDY DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH THIS DOMINANT NORTHERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-BFL AND SBA-SMX
WOULD THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...WHILE
SOME OF THE ENERGY WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND
NORTHERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SANTA CLARITA VALLEY SHOULD
RECEIVE GUSTS TO 30 WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...WHILE THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
405 CORRIDOR INTO VAN NUYS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE SANTA BARBARA
SOUTH COAST AND ALTHOUGH NW WINDS AROUND GAVIOTA HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
IMPRESSIVE...THE LATEST SBA-BFL GRADIENT WAS CLIMBING TO -5.2 MB.
THIS IS A FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND ZONE AFFECTING THE HILLS
ABOVE AND AROUND MONTECITO. SO WILL BE ADDING THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
TO GO ALONG WITH THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

ONLY CHANGES NEEDED TONIGHT WAS FOR THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES. A DECENT OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL FOCUS OUT OF THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL WARMING TO THE CENTRAL COAST TOMORROW AS WELL AS
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

AS FAR AS OFFSHORE WINDS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES...NOT LOOKING
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. LAX-DAG WILL LIMP TO JUST UNDER -2 MB BY WED
MORNING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST TOMORROW AND WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE...AND WITH WITH THE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE WITH TEMPS...WITH MORE WARMING FOR
THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS ON THU WHERE HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
FOR THE LA/VTU COAST. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK...TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY ALONG THE LA/VTU COAST ALLOWING A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PATHCY DENSE FOG RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST EARLY THU MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN A BIT
EARLIER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND POSSIBLY IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY FOR THE MOST PART. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THU/FRI.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MODELS ARE NOW ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACING
A DIGGING TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND AT THIS POINT
SWINGING ITS MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY. 12Z
GUIDANCE PUSHES A WEAK FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME LOW POPS OVER AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY...FRONT APPEARS PRETTY WEAK
THIS FAR SOUTH WITH BEST QPF WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEFT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION AS IS FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME DON`T EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE TROF`S INTENSITY
FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN.

THE PASSING TROUGH WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS 10 TO IN SOME PLACES 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND PLENTY BELOW
NORMAL...HELPING IT FEEL VERY FALL LIKE. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH PASSES AND
CANYONS.

SOME VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND EC PAST SUNDAY AS FAR AS
THE BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND SATURDAY`S TROUGH. BUT IN
GENERAL RISING HEIGHTS WILL WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONGEST ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0525Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z WAS 1100 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING AT KSMX...AND IFR CONDS AT KLGB
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN CLEAR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS 10Z-16Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...21/900 PM...

NORTHWEST GALES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...STRONGEST BETWEEN POINT CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. THE SOMEWHAT LONG PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED STRONG WINDS HAS PRODUCED LARGE COMBINED SEAS...AS SHORT
PERIOD WAVES COMBINE WITH A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. PEAK
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 10-14 FEET AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WINDS START TO SUBSIDE
AROUND 3 AM. FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL HOWEVER SEAS CONTINUE TO BE A LARGER MIX OF LONG AND
SHORTER PERIODS...PEAKING AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET AT 7-8 SECONDS.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT SMALL CRAFT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...FALLING BELOW 10 FEET BY THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/JACKSON
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 220314
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-FRI)...HIGH TEMPS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS
IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE THE
SAN LUCIA MTN OFFSHORE WINDS HELPED TO CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE TODAY.
MOST VALLEYS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WHILE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION WERE JUST ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING CIRRUS
MOVING NW TO SE WITH THE BROAD UPPER NW FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. FOR NOW THERE IS
SOME STRATUS IN THE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN LA COUNTY COAST
AS A VERY WEAK EDDY DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH THIS DOMINANT NORTHERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-BFL AND SBA-SMX
WOULD THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...WHILE
SOME OF THE ENERGY WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND
NORTHERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SANTA CLARITA VALLEY SHOULD
RECEIVE GUSTS TO 30 WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...WHILE THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
405 CORRIDOR INTO VAN NUYS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE SANTA BARBARA
SOUTH COAST AND ALTHOUGH NW WINDS AROUND GAVIOTA HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
IMPRESSIVE...THE LATEST SBA-BFL GRADIENT WAS CLIMBING TO -5.2 MB.
THIS IS A FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND ZONE AFFECTING THE HILLS
ABOVE AND AROUND MONTECITO. SO WILL BE ADDING THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
TO GO ALONG WITH THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

ONLY CHANGES NEEDED TONIGHT WAS FOR THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES. A DECENT OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL FOCUS OUT OF THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL WARMING TO THE CENTRAL COAST TOMORROW AS WELL AS
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

AS FAR AS OFFSHORE WINDS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES...NOT LOOKING
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. LAX-DAG WILL LIMP TO JUST UNDER -2 MB BY WED
MORNING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST TOMORROW AND WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE...AND WITH WITH THE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE WITH TEMPS...WITH MORE WARMING FOR
THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS ON THU WHERE HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
FOR THE LA/VTU COAST. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK...TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY ALONG THE LA/VTU COAST ALLOWING A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PATHCY DENSE FOG RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST EARLY THU MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN A BIT
EARLIER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND POSSIBLY IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY FOR THE MOST PART. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THU/FRI.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MODELS ARE NOW ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACING
A DIGGING TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND AT THIS POINT
SWINGING ITS MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY. 12Z
GUIDANCE PUSHES A WEAK FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME LOW POPS OVER AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY...FRONT APPEARS PRETTY WEAK
THIS FAR SOUTH WITH BEST QPF WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEFT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION AS IS FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME DON`T EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE TROF`S INTENSITY
FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN.

THE PASSING TROUGH WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS 10 TO IN SOME PLACES 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND PLENTY BELOW
NORMAL...HELPING IT FEEL VERY FALL LIKE. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH PASSES AND
CANYONS.

SOME VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND EC PAST SUNDAY AS FAR AS
THE BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND SATURDAY`S TROUGH. BUT IN
GENERAL RISING HEIGHTS WILL WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONGEST ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0000Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2350Z WAS 1200 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24
HOURS. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS 09Z-15Z TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AT KPRB AFTER 10Z THROUGH
16Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS ALL INLAND TAFS SITES AND SBA/VTA
COUNTY TAFS. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS FOR KLGB AND KLAX AFTER
09Z-16Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF THROUGH 06Z..THEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE TO 50 PERCENT FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z THROUGH 16Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...21/900 PM...

NORTHWEST GALES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...STRONGEST BETWEEN POINT CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. THE SOMEWHAT LONG PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED STRONG WINDS HAS PRODUCED LARGE COMBINED SEAS...AS SHORT
PERIOD WAVES COMBINE WITH A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. PEAK
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 10-14 FEET AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WINDS START TO SUBSIDE
AROUND 3 AM. FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL HOWEVER SEAS CONTINUE TO BE A LARGER MIX OF LONG AND
SHORTER PERIODS...PEAKING AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET AT 7-8 SECONDS.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT SMALL CRAFT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...FALLING BELOW 10 FEET BY THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES























000
FXUS66 KLOX 220005
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
505 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TO BRING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-FRI)...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS CRUISING THROUGH
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A PRETTY QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA SO
FAR. HEIGHTS HAVE BEGUN TO RISE IN ADVANCE OF SOME BUILDING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL HELP WARM THINGS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME OF
THAT WARMING HAS STARTED TODAY ALONG COASTAL AREAS WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS HAVE ACTUALLY COOLED A FEW DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE SUNDOWNER
WINDS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST. NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT`S WHEN SOME OF THE HIGHER
AREAS OF MONTECITO EXPERIENCED WIND GUSTS JUST OVER 40 MPH. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS ARE ALSO VERY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT SO WIND ADVISORY IS
IN ORDER FOR THE AREA FOR SIMILAR WINDS THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS
THE LOW 40S IN THE USUAL SPOTS...DIMINISHING BY SUNRISE. GRADIENTS
WEAKEN TOMORROW NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO RETURN
WED NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TO HELP GRADUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BOTH PRETTY SIMILAR AS FAR
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GO...SOME SPOTS WARMER FRIDAY...SOME SPOTS A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MODELS ARE NOW ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACING
A DIGGING TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND AT THIS POINT
SWINGING ITS MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY. 12Z
GUIDANCE PUSHES A WEAK FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME LOW POPS OVER AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY...FRONT APPEARS PRETTY WEAK
THIS FAR SOUTH WITH BEST QPF WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEFT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION AS IS FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME DON`T EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE TROF`S INTENSITY
FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN.

THE PASSING TROUGH WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS 10 TO IN SOME PLACES 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND PLENTY BELOW
NORMAL...HELPING IT FEEL VERY FALL LIKE. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH PASSES AND
CANYONS.

SOME VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND EC PAST SUNDAY AS FAR AS
THE BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND SATURDAY`S TROUGH. BUT IN
GENERAL RISING HEIGHTS WILL WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONGEST ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0000Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2350Z WAS 1200 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24
HOURS. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS 09Z-15Z TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AT KPRB AFTER 10Z THROUGH
16Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS ALL INLAND TAFS SITES AND SBA/VTA
COUNTY TAFS. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS FOR KLGB AND KLAX AFTER
09Z-16Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF THROUGH 06Z..THEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE TO 50 PERCENT FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z THROUGH 16Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CONDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR
MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SBA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON/KH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




















000
FXUS66 KLOX 212115
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TO BRING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-FRI)...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS CRUISING THROUGH
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A PRETTY QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA SO
FAR. HEIGHTS HAVE BEGUN TO RISE IN ADVANCE OF SOME BUILDING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL HELP WARM THINGS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME OF
THAT WARMING HAS STARTED TODAY ALONG COASTAL AREAS WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS HAVE ACTUALLY COOLED A FEW DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE SUNDOWNER
WINDS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST. NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT`S WHEN SOME OF THE HIGHER
AREAS OF MONTECITO EXPERIENCED WIND GUSTS JUST OVER 40 MPH. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS ARE ALSO VERY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT SO WIND ADVISORY IS
IN ORDER FOR THE AREA FOR SIMILAR WINDS THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS
THE LOW 40S IN THE USUAL SPOTS...DIMINISHING BY SUNRISE. GRADIENTS
WEAKEN TOMORROW NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO RETURN
WED NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TO HELP GRADUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BOTH PRETTY SIMILAR AS FAR
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GO...SOME SPOTS WARMER FRIDAY...SOME SPOTS A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MODELS ARE NOW ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACING
A DIGGING TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND AT THIS POINT
SWINGING ITS MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY. 12Z
GUIDANCE PUSHES A WEAK FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME LOW POPS OVER AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY...FRONT APPEARS PRETTY WEAK
THIS FAR SOUTH WITH BEST QPF WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEFT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION AS IS FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME DON`T EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE TROF`S INTENSITY
FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN.

THE PASSING TROUGH WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS 10 TO IN SOME PLACES 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND PLENTY BELOW
NORMAL...HELPING IT FEEL VERY FALL LIKE. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH PASSES AND
CANYONS.

SOME VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND EC PAST SUNDAY AS FAR AS
THE BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND SATURDAY`S TROUGH. BUT IN
GENERAL RISING HEIGHTS WILL WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONGEST ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1701Z IS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES C.

POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTH COASTAL TAFS AND KPRB TAF FROM
18Z...OTHERWISE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS. MAIN QUESTION FOR LOW
CONFIDENCE TAFS IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY LOW CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CONDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR
MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SBA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON/KH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

















000
FXUS66 KLOX 211803
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND BRING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THAT PEAKS ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AN INCREASE IN COASTAL OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-FRI)...THE UPPER TROF MOVED BY THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND LEFT IN ITS WAKE SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IN CLOUD COVER IS OVER
SOUTHERN LA COUNTY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON THIS HOUR IN A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH SLO
COUNTY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND CLOUDS HUGGING THE VTU
COUNTY NORTH SLOPES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC. WILL STILL
BE QUITE A BIT OF SUN MOST AREAS WHEN AVERAGED OVER THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SUNDOWNER WINDS STARTING
THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE AS STRONG IF NOT A BIT STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT SO WILL BE ISSUING ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN A BUILDING RIDGE TO USHER IN A
BRIEF WARMING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD PEAK ON THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES...AND THEN ANOTHER SEVERAL DEGREES ON THURSDAY. STILL
DOESN`T LOOK TO BE QUITE AS WARM ON THURSDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...BUT STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY MORNING CANYON WINDS BUT OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A CONCERN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1701Z IS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES C.

POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTH COASTAL TAFS AND KPRB TAF FROM
18Z...OTHERWISE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS. MAIN QUESTION FOR LOW
CONFIDENCE TAFS IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY LOW CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...21/900 AM...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 211646
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
946 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND BRING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THAT PEAKS ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AN INCREASE IN COASTAL OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-FRI)...THE UPPER TROF MOVED BY THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND LEFT IN ITS WAKE SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IN CLOUD COVER IS OVER
SOUTHERN LA COUNTY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON THIS HOUR IN A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH SLO
COUNTY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND CLOUDS HUGGING THE VTU
COUNTY NORTH SLOPES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC. WILL STILL
BE QUITE A BIT OF SUN MOST AREAS WHEN AVERAGED OVER THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SUNDOWNER WINDS STARTING
THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE AS STRONG IF NOT A BIT STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT SO WILL BE ISSUING ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN A BUILDING RIDGE TO USHER IN A
BRIEF WARMING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD PEAK ON THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES...AND THEN ANOTHER SEVERAL DEGREES ON THURSDAY. STILL
DOESN`T LOOK TO BE QUITE AS WARM ON THURSDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...BUT STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY MORNING CANYON WINDS BUT OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A CONCERN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...21/900 AM...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 211414 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
710 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE COOL AND BREEZY TODAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FROM SANTA BARBARA NORTHWARD AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE COOLER DURING THE WEEKEND BUT
THEY WILL BE WARM AGAIN IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 211414 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
710 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE COOL AND BREEZY TODAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FROM SANTA BARBARA NORTHWARD AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE COOLER DURING THE WEEKEND BUT
THEY WILL BE WARM AGAIN IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 211201 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 211201 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 211201 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 211201 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 211105 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 211105 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 211105 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 211105 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 211104
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DEDENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTIUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADINET HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABREIL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADITATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO AGRESSIVE
SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE COVERAGE ACROSS
THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO BITE
ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE MDLS SAY LATER
TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 211104
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DEDENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTIUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADINET HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABREIL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADITATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO AGRESSIVE
SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE COVERAGE ACROSS
THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO BITE
ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE MDLS SAY LATER
TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 211104
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DEDENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTIUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADINET HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABREIL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADITATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO AGRESSIVE
SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE COVERAGE ACROSS
THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO BITE
ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE MDLS SAY LATER
TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 211104
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DEDENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTIUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADINET HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABREIL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADITATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO AGRESSIVE
SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE COVERAGE ACROSS
THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO BITE
ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE MDLS SAY LATER
TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







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