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000
FXUS66 KLOX 310552 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN...MOUNTAIN
SNOW...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY
BRING SOME DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND
AS WE DRY OUT...AND HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.UPDATE...

MIDDLE AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO EXIT THE
REGION. SOME BREAKS IN THE FOG PRODUCT ARE REVEALING THE STRATUS
CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. WHILE THE TIMING OF
THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRATUS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE TROUGHS INSTABILITY LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE...CENTERED ABOUT 600 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SEATTLE...WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SOUTH AND WEST TO NEAR 30N AND 130W. THE
LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM TIMING SIMILAR
TO THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...BUT THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE ADDING A WRINKLE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 850 MB MIXING RATIO AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WARM ADVECTION AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. POPS
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE TIMING OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH STILL LOOKS THE SAME. THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
WILL REACH NORTHERN PARTS OF SLO COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER NOON
TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON THE CENTRAL COAST COMING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...JUST IN TIME FOR THE TRICK-OR-TREATERS.
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...THEN IT
WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND CONVECTIVE OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY WITH THE INITIAL FRONT.

FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES...THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL COME
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT THE
TRICK-OR-TREATERS OF LA COUNTY WILL STAY DRY...AND PROBABLY MOST OF
VENTURA COUNTY AS WELL. RAIN FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL MOST
LIKELY BEGIN DURING THE EVENING.

ANY LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY SATURDAY EVENING...MANY AREAS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 1"..WITH SOME
AMOUNTS UP TO 2" ON THE COASTAL SLOPES. INTERIOR AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION WILL SEE 0.25-0.75" TOTAL. FOR AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
0.25-0.50"...WITH SOME AMOUNTS UP TO 1" IN THE SAN GABRIELS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SBA COUNTY NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BEHIND THE
INITIAL FRONT. CAPE VALUES THERE RANGE FROM ABOUT 500-1000
J/KG...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL RATES ON THE CENTRAL COAST WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH 0.50" PER HOUR...WITH RAINFALL RATES
MOSTLY BELOW 1/3" PER HOUR FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTY.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF AROUND 8000-10,000 FEET LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR...WITH THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS
MOVING IN AFTER THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION ENDS. NOT PLANNING ON
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NOW...BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER. A
WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
POSSIBLY THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.

THINGS WILL DRY OUT ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN...WITH THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY.
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE AN IMPRESSIVE OFFSHORE EVENT AT THIS POINT
THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
ABOVE SLIGHTLY NORMAL BY TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MANY
VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S.

&&

AVIATION...31/0550Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0340Z WAS NEAR 1400 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 3100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
RETURN OF STRATUS TO ALL SITES EXCEPT THE DESERTS...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND FLIGHT CATEGORY. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDS WITH STEADY
LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
FLIGHT CATEGORY. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD RISE TO VFR
LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIG
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. EXPECT PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...SO A GALE WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE RIGHT NOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE
AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...31/0045Z.

A MODERATELY LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL COULD BRING A HIGH SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS TO THE CENTRAL COAST BEACHES ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS  A POTENTIAL FOR SURF 9 TO 14 FEET AT WEST
AND NORTHWEST FACING SHORES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...BUT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/SUKUP
AVIATION/BEACHES...HALL/RAT
MARINE...HALL/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 310352
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
852 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN...MOUNTAIN
SNOW...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY
BRING SOME DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND
AS WE DRY OUT...AND HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.UPDATE...

MIDDLE AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO EXIT THE
REGION. SOME BREAKS IN THE FOG PRODUCT ARE REVEALING THE STRATUS
CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. WHILE THE TIMING OF
THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRATUS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE TROUGHS INSTABILITY LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE...CENTERED ABOUT 600 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SEATTLE...WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SOUTH AND WEST TO NEAR 30N AND 130W. THE
LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM TIMING SIMILAR
TO THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...BUT THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE ADDING A WRINKLE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 850 MB MIXING RATIO AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WARM ADVECTION AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. POPS
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE TIMING OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH STILL LOOKS THE SAME. THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
WILL REACH NORTHERN PARTS OF SLO COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER NOON
TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON THE CENTRAL COAST COMING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...JUST IN TIME FOR THE TRICK-OR-TREATERS.
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...THEN IT
WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND CONVECTIVE OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY WITH THE INITIAL FRONT.

FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES...THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL COME
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT THE
TRICK-OR-TREATERS OF LA COUNTY WILL STAY DRY...AND PROBABLY MOST OF
VENTURA COUNTY AS WELL. RAIN FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL MOST
LIKELY BEGIN DURING THE EVENING.

ANY LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY SATURDAY EVENING...MANY AREAS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 1"..WITH SOME
AMOUNTS UP TO 2" ON THE COASTAL SLOPES. INTERIOR AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION WILL SEE 0.25-0.75" TOTAL. FOR AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
0.25-0.50"...WITH SOME AMOUNTS UP TO 1" IN THE SAN GABRIELS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SBA COUNTY NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BEHIND THE
INITIAL FRONT. CAPE VALUES THERE RANGE FROM ABOUT 500-1000
J/KG...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL RATES ON THE CENTRAL COAST WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH 0.50" PER HOUR...WITH RAINFALL RATES
MOSTLY BELOW 1/3" PER HOUR FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTY.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF AROUND 8000-10,000 FEET LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR...WITH THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS
MOVING IN AFTER THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION ENDS. NOT PLANNING ON
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NOW...BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER. A
WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
POSSIBLY THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.

THINGS WILL DRY OUT ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN...WITH THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY.
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE AN IMPRESSIVE OFFSHORE EVENT AT THIS POINT
THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
ABOVE SLIGHTLY NORMAL BY TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MANY
VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S.

&&

AVIATION...31/0045Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0000Z WAS NEAR 1000 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT PACKAGE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
PREVALENT THROUGH 16Z. AREAS NORTH OF KNTD MAY INITIALLY START OUT
IN THE IFR CATEGORY BUT LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY FRIDAY
MORNING. DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z CENTRAL COAST TERMINALS...07Z TO 15Z LOS ANGELES
COUNTY TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS AT OR BELOW 5000
FEET WILL LIKELY BE PREVALENT AREA WIDE AFTER 20Z.

KLAX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO KLAX THROUGH 04Z. THERE IS A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIZZLE BETWEEN 08Z AND
14Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER AFTER 15Z.

KBUR...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO KBUR BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z.
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIZZLE BETWEEN
09Z AND 15Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER AFTER 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. EXPECT PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...SO A GALE WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE RIGHT NOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE
AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...31/0045Z.

A MODERATELY LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL COULD BRING A HIGH SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS TO THE CENTRAL COAST BEACHES ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS  A POTENTIAL FOR SURF 9 TO 14 FEET AT WEST
AND NORTHWEST FACING SHORES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...BUT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/SUKUP
AVIATION/BEACHES...HALL
MARINE...HALL/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 310352
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
852 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN...MOUNTAIN
SNOW...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY
BRING SOME DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND
AS WE DRY OUT...AND HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.UPDATE...

MIDDLE AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO EXIT THE
REGION. SOME BREAKS IN THE FOG PRODUCT ARE REVEALING THE STRATUS
CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. WHILE THE TIMING OF
THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRATUS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE TROUGHS INSTABILITY LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE...CENTERED ABOUT 600 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SEATTLE...WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SOUTH AND WEST TO NEAR 30N AND 130W. THE
LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM TIMING SIMILAR
TO THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...BUT THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE ADDING A WRINKLE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 850 MB MIXING RATIO AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WARM ADVECTION AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. POPS
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE TIMING OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH STILL LOOKS THE SAME. THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
WILL REACH NORTHERN PARTS OF SLO COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER NOON
TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON THE CENTRAL COAST COMING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...JUST IN TIME FOR THE TRICK-OR-TREATERS.
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...THEN IT
WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND CONVECTIVE OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY WITH THE INITIAL FRONT.

FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES...THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL COME
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT THE
TRICK-OR-TREATERS OF LA COUNTY WILL STAY DRY...AND PROBABLY MOST OF
VENTURA COUNTY AS WELL. RAIN FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL MOST
LIKELY BEGIN DURING THE EVENING.

ANY LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY SATURDAY EVENING...MANY AREAS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 1"..WITH SOME
AMOUNTS UP TO 2" ON THE COASTAL SLOPES. INTERIOR AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION WILL SEE 0.25-0.75" TOTAL. FOR AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
0.25-0.50"...WITH SOME AMOUNTS UP TO 1" IN THE SAN GABRIELS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SBA COUNTY NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BEHIND THE
INITIAL FRONT. CAPE VALUES THERE RANGE FROM ABOUT 500-1000
J/KG...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL RATES ON THE CENTRAL COAST WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH 0.50" PER HOUR...WITH RAINFALL RATES
MOSTLY BELOW 1/3" PER HOUR FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTY.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF AROUND 8000-10,000 FEET LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR...WITH THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS
MOVING IN AFTER THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION ENDS. NOT PLANNING ON
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NOW...BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER. A
WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
POSSIBLY THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.

THINGS WILL DRY OUT ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN...WITH THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY.
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE AN IMPRESSIVE OFFSHORE EVENT AT THIS POINT
THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
ABOVE SLIGHTLY NORMAL BY TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MANY
VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S.

&&

AVIATION...31/0045Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0000Z WAS NEAR 1000 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT PACKAGE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
PREVALENT THROUGH 16Z. AREAS NORTH OF KNTD MAY INITIALLY START OUT
IN THE IFR CATEGORY BUT LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY FRIDAY
MORNING. DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z CENTRAL COAST TERMINALS...07Z TO 15Z LOS ANGELES
COUNTY TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS AT OR BELOW 5000
FEET WILL LIKELY BE PREVALENT AREA WIDE AFTER 20Z.

KLAX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO KLAX THROUGH 04Z. THERE IS A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIZZLE BETWEEN 08Z AND
14Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER AFTER 15Z.

KBUR...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO KBUR BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z.
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIZZLE BETWEEN
09Z AND 15Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER AFTER 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. EXPECT PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...SO A GALE WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE RIGHT NOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE
AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...31/0045Z.

A MODERATELY LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL COULD BRING A HIGH SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS TO THE CENTRAL COAST BEACHES ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS  A POTENTIAL FOR SURF 9 TO 14 FEET AT WEST
AND NORTHWEST FACING SHORES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...BUT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/SUKUP
AVIATION/BEACHES...HALL
MARINE...HALL/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 310045 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
545 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND BEACHES SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW TO THE SW. THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY CAN ALSO BE SEEN OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE DOWN ACROSS THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED...WITH A MIXED BAG OF TRENDS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR AREAS.

THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH A MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 3500 FEET
BY TOMORROW MORNING...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED ALL THE
WAY TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING FOR ALL AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE TIMING OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH STILL
LOOKS THE SAME. THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL REACH
NORTHERN PARTS OF SLO COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER NOON TOMORROW...WITH THE
BULK OF THE RAIN ON THE CENTRAL COAST COMING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...JUST IN TIME FOR THE TRICK-OR-TREATERS. A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...THEN IT WILL BECOME MORE
SHOWERY AND CONVECTIVE OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY WITH THE INITIAL FRONT.

FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES...THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL COME
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT THE
TRICK-OR-TREATERS OF LA COUNTY WILL STAY DRY...AND PROBABLY MOST OF
VENTURA COUNTY AS WELL. RAIN FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL MOST
LIKELY BEGIN DURING THE EVENING.

ANY LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY SATURDAY EVENING...MANY AREAS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 1"..WITH SOME
AMOUNTS UP TO 2" ON THE COASTAL SLOPES. INTERIOR AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION WILL SEE 0.25-0.75" TOTAL. FOR AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
0.25-0.50"...WITH SOME AMOUNTS UP TO 1" IN THE SAN GABRIELS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SBA COUNTY NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BEHIND THE
INITIAL FRONT. CAPE VALUES THERE RANGE FROM ABOUT 500-1000
J/KG...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL RATES ON THE CENTRAL COAST WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH 0.50" PER HOUR...WITH RAINFALL RATES
MOSTLY BELOW 1/3" PER HOUR FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTY.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF AROUND 8000-10,000 FEET LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR...WITH THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS
MOVING IN AFTER THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION ENDS. NOT PLANNING ON
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NOW...BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER. A
WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
POSSIBLY THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.

THINGS WILL DRY OUT ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. DOESN`T
APPEAR TO BE AN IMPRESSIVE OFFSHORE EVENT AT THIS POINT THOUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND ABOVE
SLIGHTLY NORMAL BY TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MANY VALLEY
AND COASTAL AREAS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...31/0045Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0000Z WAS NEAR 1000 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT PACKAGE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
PREVALENT THROUGH 16Z. AREAS NORTH OF KNTD MAY INITIALLY START OUT
IN THE IFR CATEGORY BUT LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY FRIDAY
MORNING. DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z CENTRAL COAST TERMINALS...07Z TO 15Z LOS ANGELES
COUNTY TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS AT OR BELOW 5000
FEET WILL LIKELY BE PREVALENT AREA WIDE AFTER 20Z.

KLAX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO KLAX THROUGH 04Z. THERE IS A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIZZLE BETWEEN 08Z AND
14Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER AFTER 15Z.

KBUR...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO KBUR BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z.
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIZZLE BETWEEN
09Z AND 15Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER AFTER 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. EXPECT PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...SO A GALE WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE RIGHT NOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE
AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...31/0045Z.

A MODERATELY LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL COULD BRING A HIGH SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS TO THE CENTRAL COAST BEACHES ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS  A POTENTIAL FOR SURF 9 TO 14 FEET AT WEST
AND NORTHWEST FACING SHORES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...BUT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
BEACHES...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 302141
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
235 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW TO THE SW. THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY CAN ALSO BE SEEN OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE DOWN ACROSS THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED...WITH A MIXED BAG OF TRENDS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR AREAS.

THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH A MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 3500 FEET
BY TOMORROW MORNING...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED ALL THE
WAY TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING FOR ALL AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE TIMING OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH STILL
LOOKS THE SAME. THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL REACH
NORTHERN PARTS OF SLO COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER NOON TOMORROW...WITH THE
BULK OF THE RAIN ON THE CENTRAL COAST COMING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...JUST IN TIME FOR THE TRICK-OR-TREATERS. A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...THEN IT WILL BECOME MORE
SHOWERY AND CONVECTIVE OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY WITH THE INITIAL FRONT.

FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES...THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL COME
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT THE
TRICK-OR-TREATERS OF LA COUNTY WILL STAY DRY...AND PROBABLY MOST OF
VENTURA COUNTY AS WELL. RAIN FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL MOST
LIKELY BEGIN DURING THE EVENING.

ANY LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY SATURDAY EVENING...MANY AREAS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 1"..WITH SOME
AMOUNTS UP TO 2" ON THE COASTAL SLOPES. INTERIOR AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION WILL SEE 0.25-0.75" TOTAL. FOR AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
0.25-0.50"...WITH SOME AMOUNTS UP TO 1" IN THE SAN GABRIELS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SBA COUNTY NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BEHIND THE
INITIAL FRONT. CAPE VALUES THERE RANGE FROM ABOUT 500-1000
J/KG...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL RATES ON THE CENTRAL COAST WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH 0.50" PER HOUR...WITH RAINFALL RATES
MOSTLY BELOW 1/3" PER HOUR FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTY.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF AROUND 8000-10,000 FEET LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR...WITH THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS
MOVING IN AFTER THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION ENDS. NOT PLANNING ON
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NOW...BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER. A
WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
POSSIBLY THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.

THINGS WILL DRY OUT ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. DOESN`T
APPEAR TO BE AN IMPRESSIVE OFFSHORE EVENT AT THIS POINT THOUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND ABOVE
SLIGHTLY NORMAL BY TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MANY VALLEY
AND COASTAL AREAS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1805Z WAS NEAR 400 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 1400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS.

KLAX...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING TWO
OR MORE HOURS DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST TIME.

KBUR...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TWO
OR MORE HOURS DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST TIME. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. EXPECT PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...SO A GALE WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE RIGHT NOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE
AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 302141
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
235 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW TO THE SW. THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY CAN ALSO BE SEEN OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE DOWN ACROSS THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED...WITH A MIXED BAG OF TRENDS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR AREAS.

THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH A MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 3500 FEET
BY TOMORROW MORNING...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED ALL THE
WAY TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING FOR ALL AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE TIMING OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH STILL
LOOKS THE SAME. THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL REACH
NORTHERN PARTS OF SLO COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER NOON TOMORROW...WITH THE
BULK OF THE RAIN ON THE CENTRAL COAST COMING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...JUST IN TIME FOR THE TRICK-OR-TREATERS. A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...THEN IT WILL BECOME MORE
SHOWERY AND CONVECTIVE OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY WITH THE INITIAL FRONT.

FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES...THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL COME
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT THE
TRICK-OR-TREATERS OF LA COUNTY WILL STAY DRY...AND PROBABLY MOST OF
VENTURA COUNTY AS WELL. RAIN FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL MOST
LIKELY BEGIN DURING THE EVENING.

ANY LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY SATURDAY EVENING...MANY AREAS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 1"..WITH SOME
AMOUNTS UP TO 2" ON THE COASTAL SLOPES. INTERIOR AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION WILL SEE 0.25-0.75" TOTAL. FOR AREAS S OF PT
CONCEPTION...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
0.25-0.50"...WITH SOME AMOUNTS UP TO 1" IN THE SAN GABRIELS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SBA COUNTY NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BEHIND THE
INITIAL FRONT. CAPE VALUES THERE RANGE FROM ABOUT 500-1000
J/KG...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL RATES ON THE CENTRAL COAST WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH 0.50" PER HOUR...WITH RAINFALL RATES
MOSTLY BELOW 1/3" PER HOUR FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTY.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF AROUND 8000-10,000 FEET LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR...WITH THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS
MOVING IN AFTER THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION ENDS. NOT PLANNING ON
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NOW...BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER. A
WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
POSSIBLY THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.

THINGS WILL DRY OUT ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. DOESN`T
APPEAR TO BE AN IMPRESSIVE OFFSHORE EVENT AT THIS POINT THOUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND ABOVE
SLIGHTLY NORMAL BY TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MANY VALLEY
AND COASTAL AREAS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1805Z WAS NEAR 400 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 1400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS.

KLAX...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING TWO
OR MORE HOURS DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST TIME.

KBUR...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TWO
OR MORE HOURS DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST TIME. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. EXPECT PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...SO A GALE WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE RIGHT NOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE
AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 301905
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1205 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. SKIES WILL TURN CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE MORNING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL COAST
AND MOVING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...

FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GOOD SHAPE. A WEAK UPPER LOW TO THE SW IS
SPREADING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NW. SKIES TODAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY. WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING AND THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A
GOOD 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
10-15 DEGREES COOLER ON THE CENTRAL COAST.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNING THE RAIN
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER...WITH THE SYSTEM COMING A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT EVERYONE IN OUR AREA WILL
GET SOME RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXCEPT MAYBE THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
WILL PROBABLY BE INCREASING THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE AFTERNOON
UPDATE BASED UPON THE 12Z MODELS RUNS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS TROF SHOULD FINALLY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. IT WILL IN FACT PRODUCE
ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS TO COVER THE COASTS AND VLYS AND EVEN THE COASTAL
SLOPES. TOWARDS DAWN THE LOWER ATMOS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH THAT THE
LIFT WITH THE TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE. NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
WHERE THE OROGRAPHICS WILL GIVE THE LIFT JUST A LITTLE MORE OOMPH
THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION.

SPEAKING OF PRECIPITATION THE FIRST RAIN FALL OF THE RAIN SEASON IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SFC FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
BIG EAST PAC TROF WILL MOVE CLOSE THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO WESTERN SLO COUNTY BUT REALLY
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE
HALLOWEEN IS GOING TO BE WASH OUT FOR TRICK OR TREATERS IN SLO AND
WESTERN SBA COUNTIES.

ALL THE REAL ACTION HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE ONE TWO PUNCH OF THE SFC FRONT AND THE POST FRONTAL TROF MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS LIKELY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A CHC OF RAIN. THERE IS A VERY NICE VORT MAX
ALONG WITH A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE TWO
THINGS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE COVERED IN SHOWERS AND SOME
MAY BE HEAVY.

THE VORT MAX EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS WHERE
THERE IS ALWAYS A LITTLE POST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AS
WELL AS THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE VTA AND LA MTNS DUE TO UPSLOPE
CREATED BY NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. ONE LAST SHOT OF VORTICITY
WILL ALSO CREATE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE
SAN GABRIEL COASTAL SLOPES BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH TO ZERO OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT OVER 7000 FEET BUT WILL FALL TO AROUND
6000 FEET BY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL IS REALLY NOT AN ISSUE BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS OVER 6000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS KEEP IN RAMPING UP WITH EACH MDL RUN. NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE .75 INCHES TO AROUND AN INCH. THE
REST OF THE NON-DESERT AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH OF RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FOOTHILL AREAS OF THE SAN
GABRIELS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.

MAX TEMPS WILL FALL EACH DAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPS 3 TO 6
DEGREE BLO NORMAL. SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL BE 6 TO 12 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL WITH NO READINGS IN THE 70S ANYWHERE.

THERE WILL BE SOME WINDS SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND MTNS AND THE
ANTELOPE VLY MAY NEED A LOW END WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
AND THEN ITS GONE. ALL MDLS FORECAST THAT A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY AND THEN BUILDING EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID
LEVEL LEFT OVER CLOUDS SUNDAY TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE BLO
NORMAL BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MAX
TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1805Z WAS NEAR 400 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 1400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS.

KLAX...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING TWO
OR MORE HOURS DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST TIME.

KBUR...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TWO
OR MORE HOURS DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST TIME. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

30/900 AM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. EXPECT PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...SO A GALE WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE RIGHT NOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE
AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 301632 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. SKIES WILL TURN CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE MORNING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL COAST
AND MOVING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...

FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GOOD SHAPE. A WEAK UPPER LOW TO THE SW IS
SPREADING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NW. SKIES TODAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY. WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING AND THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A
GOOD 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
10-15 DEGREES COOLER ON THE CENTRAL COAST.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNING THE RAIN
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER...WITH THE SYSTEM COMING A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT EVERYONE IN OUR AREA WILL
GET SOME RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXCEPT MAYBE THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
WILL PROBABLY BE INCREASING THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE AFTERNOON
UPDATE BASED UPON THE 12Z MODELS RUNS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS TROF SHOULD FINALLY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. IT WILL IN FACT PRODUCE
ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS TO COVER THE COASTS AND VLYS AND EVEN THE COASTAL
SLOPES. TOWARDS DAWN THE LOWER ATMOS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH THAT THE
LIFT WITH THE TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE. NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
WHERE THE OROGRAPHICS WILL GIVE THE LIFT JUST A LITTLE MORE OOMPH
THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION.

SPEAKING OF PRECIPITATION THE FIRST RAIN FALL OF THE RAIN SEASON IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SFC FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
BIG EAST PAC TROF WILL MOVE CLOSE THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO WESTERN SLO COUNTY BUT REALLY
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE
HALLOWEEN IS GOING TO BE WASH OUT FOR TRICK OR TREATERS IN SLO AND
WESTERN SBA COUNTIES.

ALL THE REAL ACTION HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE ONE TWO PUNCH OF THE SFC FRONT AND THE POST FRONTAL TROF MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS LIKELY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A CHC OF RAIN. THERE IS A VERY NICE VORT MAX
ALONG WITH A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE TWO
THINGS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE COVERED IN SHOWERS AND SOME
MAY BE HEAVY.

THE VORT MAX EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS WHERE
THERE IS ALWAYS A LITTLE POST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AS
WELL AS THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE VTA AND LA MTNS DUE TO UPSLOPE
CREATED BY NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. ONE LAST SHOT OF VORTICITY
WILL ALSO CREATE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE
SAN GABRIEL COASTAL SLOPES BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH TO ZERO OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT OVER 7000 FEET BUT WILL FALL TO AROUND
6000 FEET BY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL IS REALLY NOT AN ISSUE BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS OVER 6000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS KEEP IN RAMPING UP WITH EACH MDL RUN. NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE .75 INCHES TO AROUND AN INCH. THE
REST OF THE NON-DESERT AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH OF RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FOOTHILL AREAS OF THE SAN
GABRIELS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.

MAX TEMPS WILL FALL EACH DAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPS 3 TO 6
DEGREE BLO NORMAL. SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL BE 6 TO 12 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL WITH NO READINGS IN THE 70S ANYWHERE.

THERE WILL BE SOME WINDS SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND MTNS AND THE
ANTELOPE VLY MAY NEED A LOW END WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
AND THEN ITS GONE. ALL MDLS FORECAST THAT A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY AND THEN BUILDING EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID
LEVEL LEFT OVER CLOUDS SUNDAY TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE BLO
NORMAL BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MAX
TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/1215Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1200Z WAS NEAR 1100 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

OVERALL VFR BKN LEVELS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR LOW MVFR CIGS FOR LA COUNTY COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 02Z
THIS EVE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MANY COASTAL
SITES...THEN SPREAD INTO VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 30 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR IFR CONDS FOR FEW VALLEY TAF SITES.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS 12Z-17Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER
10Z-11Z FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

30/900 AM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. EXPECT PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...SO A GALE WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE RIGHT NOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE
AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 301632 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. SKIES WILL TURN CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE MORNING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL COAST
AND MOVING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...

FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GOOD SHAPE. A WEAK UPPER LOW TO THE SW IS
SPREADING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NW. SKIES TODAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY. WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING AND THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A
GOOD 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
10-15 DEGREES COOLER ON THE CENTRAL COAST.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNING THE RAIN
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER...WITH THE SYSTEM COMING A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT EVERYONE IN OUR AREA WILL
GET SOME RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXCEPT MAYBE THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
WILL PROBABLY BE INCREASING THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE AFTERNOON
UPDATE BASED UPON THE 12Z MODELS RUNS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS TROF SHOULD FINALLY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. IT WILL IN FACT PRODUCE
ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS TO COVER THE COASTS AND VLYS AND EVEN THE COASTAL
SLOPES. TOWARDS DAWN THE LOWER ATMOS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH THAT THE
LIFT WITH THE TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE. NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
WHERE THE OROGRAPHICS WILL GIVE THE LIFT JUST A LITTLE MORE OOMPH
THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION.

SPEAKING OF PRECIPITATION THE FIRST RAIN FALL OF THE RAIN SEASON IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SFC FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
BIG EAST PAC TROF WILL MOVE CLOSE THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO WESTERN SLO COUNTY BUT REALLY
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE
HALLOWEEN IS GOING TO BE WASH OUT FOR TRICK OR TREATERS IN SLO AND
WESTERN SBA COUNTIES.

ALL THE REAL ACTION HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE ONE TWO PUNCH OF THE SFC FRONT AND THE POST FRONTAL TROF MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS LIKELY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A CHC OF RAIN. THERE IS A VERY NICE VORT MAX
ALONG WITH A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE TWO
THINGS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE COVERED IN SHOWERS AND SOME
MAY BE HEAVY.

THE VORT MAX EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS WHERE
THERE IS ALWAYS A LITTLE POST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AS
WELL AS THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE VTA AND LA MTNS DUE TO UPSLOPE
CREATED BY NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. ONE LAST SHOT OF VORTICITY
WILL ALSO CREATE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE
SAN GABRIEL COASTAL SLOPES BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH TO ZERO OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT OVER 7000 FEET BUT WILL FALL TO AROUND
6000 FEET BY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL IS REALLY NOT AN ISSUE BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS OVER 6000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS KEEP IN RAMPING UP WITH EACH MDL RUN. NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE .75 INCHES TO AROUND AN INCH. THE
REST OF THE NON-DESERT AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH OF RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FOOTHILL AREAS OF THE SAN
GABRIELS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.

MAX TEMPS WILL FALL EACH DAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPS 3 TO 6
DEGREE BLO NORMAL. SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL BE 6 TO 12 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL WITH NO READINGS IN THE 70S ANYWHERE.

THERE WILL BE SOME WINDS SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND MTNS AND THE
ANTELOPE VLY MAY NEED A LOW END WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
AND THEN ITS GONE. ALL MDLS FORECAST THAT A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY AND THEN BUILDING EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID
LEVEL LEFT OVER CLOUDS SUNDAY TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE BLO
NORMAL BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MAX
TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/1215Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1200Z WAS NEAR 1100 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

OVERALL VFR BKN LEVELS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR LOW MVFR CIGS FOR LA COUNTY COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 02Z
THIS EVE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MANY COASTAL
SITES...THEN SPREAD INTO VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 30 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR IFR CONDS FOR FEW VALLEY TAF SITES.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS 12Z-17Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER
10Z-11Z FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

30/900 AM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. EXPECT PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...SO A GALE WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE RIGHT NOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE
AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 301217 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. SKIES WILL TURN CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE MORNING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL AND
MOVING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATER IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
A LITTLE UPPER LOW TO OUR SW HAS SPUN UP A GRIP OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY DIAPHANOUS SO THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO CALL IT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY RATHER THAN JUST
CLOUDY. HGTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BE TRENDING MORE AND MORE ONSHORE AS WELL. THESE TWO THINGS AND
THE EXTRA CLOUDS WILL NOT ALLOW AS MUCH AS A WARM UP AS IT LOOKED
LIKE YESTERDAY AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMALS.

A LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS TROF SHOULD FINALLY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. IT WILL IN FACT PRODUCE
ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS TO COVER THE COASTS AND VLYS AND EVEN THE COASTAL
SLOPES. TOWARDS DAWN THE LOWER ATMOS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH THAT THE
LIFT WITH THE TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE. NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
WHERE THE OROGRAPHICS WILL GIVE THE LIFT JUST A LITTLE MORE OOMPH
THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION.

SPEAKING OF PRECIPITATION THE FIRST RAIN FALL OF THE RAIN SEASON IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SFC FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
BIG EAST PAC TROF WILL MOVE CLOSE THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO WESTERN SLO COUNTY BUT REALLY
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE
HALLOWEEN IS GOING TO BE WASH OUT FOR TRICK OR TREATERS IN SLO AND
WESTERN SBA COUNTIES.

ALL THE REAL ACTION HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE ONE TWO PUNCH OF THE SFC FRONT AND THE POST FRONTAL TROF MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS LIKELY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A CHC OF RAIN. THERE IS A VERY NICE VORT MAX
ALONG WITH A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE TWO
THINGS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE COVERED IN SHOWERS AND SOME
MAY BE HEAVY.

THE VORT MAX EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS WHERE
THERE IS ALWAYS A LITTLE POST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AS
WELL AS THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE VTA AND LA MTNS DUE TO UPSLOPE
CREATED BY NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. ONE LAST SHOT OF VORTICITY
WILL ALSO CREATE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE
SAN GABRIEL COASTAL SLOPES BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH TO ZERO OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT OVER 7000 FEET BUT WILL FALL TO AROUND
6000 FEET BY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL IS REALLY NOT AN ISSUE BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS OVER 6000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS KEEP IN RAMPING UP WITH EACH MDL RUN. NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE .75 INCHES TO AROUND AN INCH. THE
REST OF THE NON-DESERT AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH OF RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FOOTHILL AREAS OF THE SAN
GABRIELS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.

MAX TEMPS WILL FALL EACH DAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPS 3 TO 6
DEGREE BLO NORMAL. SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL BE 6 TO 12 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL WITH NO READINGS IN THE 70S ANYWHERE.

THERE WILL BE SOME WINDS SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND MTNS AND THE
ANTELOPE VLY MAY NEED A LOW END WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
AND THEN ITS GONE. ALL MDLS FORECAST THAT A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY AND THEN BUILDING EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID
LEVEL LEFT OVER CLOUDS SUNDAY TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE BLO
NORMAL BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MAX
TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/1215Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1200Z WAS NEAR 1100 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

OVERALL VFR BKN LEVELS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR LOW MVFR CIGS FOR LA COUNTY COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 02Z
THIS EVE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MANY COASTAL
SITES...THEN SPREAD INTO VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 30 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR IFR CONDS FOR FEW VALLEY TAF SITES.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS 12Z-17Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER
10Z-11Z FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

30/340 AM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. MODELS HAVE BACKED DOWN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INITIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...THEN
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 301059 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. SKIES WILL TURN CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE MORNING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL AND
MOVING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATER IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
A LITTLE UPPER LOW TO OUR SW HAS SPUN UP A GRIP OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY DIAPHANOUS SO THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO CALL IT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY RATHER THAN JUST
CLOUDY. HGTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BE TRENDING MORE AND MORE ONSHORE AS WELL. THESE TWO THINGS AND
THE EXTRA CLOUDS WILL NOT ALLOW AS MUCH AS A WARM UP AS IT LOOKED
LIKE YESTERDAY AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMALS.

A LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS TROF SHOULD FINALLY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. IT WILL IN FACT PRODUCE
ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS TO COVER THE COASTS AND VLYS AND EVEN THE COASTAL
SLOPES. TOWARDS DAWN THE LOWER ATMOS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH THAT THE
LIFT WITH THE TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE. NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
WHERE THE OROGRAPHICS WILL GIVE THE LIFT JUST A LITTLE MORE OOMPH
THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION.

SPEAKING OF PRECIPITATION THE FIRST RAIN FALL OF THE RAIN SEASON IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SFC FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
BIG EAST PAC TROF WILL MOVE CLOSE THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO WESTERN SLO COUNTY BUT REALLY
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE
HALLOWEEN IS GOING TO BE WASH OUT FOR TRICK OR TREATERS IN SLO AND
WESTERN SBA COUNTIES.

ALL THE REAL ACTION HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE ONE TWO PUNCH OF THE SFC FRONT AND THE POST FRONTAL TROF MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS LIKELY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A CHC OF RAIN. THERE IS A VERY NICE VORT MAX
ALONG WITH A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE TWO
THINGS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE COVERED IN SHOWERS AND SOME
MAY BE HEAVY.

THE VORT MAX EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS WHERE
THERE IS ALWAYS A LITTLE POST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AS
WELL AS THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE VTA AND LA MTNS DUE TO UPSLOPE
CREATED BY NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. ONE LAST SHOT OF VORTICITY
WILL ALSO CREATE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE
SAN GABRIEL COASTAL SLOPES BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH TO ZERO OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT OVER 7000 FEET BUT WILL FALL TO AROUND
6000 FEET BY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL IS REALLY NOT AN ISSUE BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS OVER 6000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS KEEP IN RAMPING UP WITH EACH MDL RUN. NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE .75 INCHES TO AROUND AN INCH. THE
REST OF THE NON-DESERT AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH OF RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FOOTHILL AREAS OF THE SAN
GABRIELS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.

MAX TEMPS WILL FALL EACH DAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPS 3 TO 6
DEGREE BLO NORMAL. SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL BE 6 TO 12 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL WITH NO READINGS IN THE 70S ANYWHERE.

THERE WILL BE SOME WINDS SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND MTNS AND THE
ANTELOPE VLY MAY NEED A LOW END WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
AND THEN ITS GONE. ALL MDLS FORECAST THAT A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY AND THEN BUILDING EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID
LEVEL LEFT OVER CLOUDS SUNDAY TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE BLO
NORMAL BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MAX
TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/0545Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0730Z WAS NEAR 1200 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAF SITES WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LIFR CONDITIONS 10Z-17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VLY AND DESERT TAFS.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO MOST COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR
CIGS 12Z-17Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...

30/340 AM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. MODELS HAVE BACKED DOWN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INITIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...THEN
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 301059 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. SKIES WILL TURN CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE MORNING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL AND
MOVING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATER IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
A LITTLE UPPER LOW TO OUR SW HAS SPUN UP A GRIP OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY DIAPHANOUS SO THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO CALL IT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY RATHER THAN JUST
CLOUDY. HGTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BE TRENDING MORE AND MORE ONSHORE AS WELL. THESE TWO THINGS AND
THE EXTRA CLOUDS WILL NOT ALLOW AS MUCH AS A WARM UP AS IT LOOKED
LIKE YESTERDAY AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMALS.

A LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS TROF SHOULD FINALLY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. IT WILL IN FACT PRODUCE
ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS TO COVER THE COASTS AND VLYS AND EVEN THE COASTAL
SLOPES. TOWARDS DAWN THE LOWER ATMOS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH THAT THE
LIFT WITH THE TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE. NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
WHERE THE OROGRAPHICS WILL GIVE THE LIFT JUST A LITTLE MORE OOMPH
THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION.

SPEAKING OF PRECIPITATION THE FIRST RAIN FALL OF THE RAIN SEASON IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SFC FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
BIG EAST PAC TROF WILL MOVE CLOSE THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO WESTERN SLO COUNTY BUT REALLY
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE
HALLOWEEN IS GOING TO BE WASH OUT FOR TRICK OR TREATERS IN SLO AND
WESTERN SBA COUNTIES.

ALL THE REAL ACTION HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE ONE TWO PUNCH OF THE SFC FRONT AND THE POST FRONTAL TROF MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS LIKELY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A CHC OF RAIN. THERE IS A VERY NICE VORT MAX
ALONG WITH A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE TWO
THINGS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE COVERED IN SHOWERS AND SOME
MAY BE HEAVY.

THE VORT MAX EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS WHERE
THERE IS ALWAYS A LITTLE POST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AS
WELL AS THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE VTA AND LA MTNS DUE TO UPSLOPE
CREATED BY NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. ONE LAST SHOT OF VORTICITY
WILL ALSO CREATE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE
SAN GABRIEL COASTAL SLOPES BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH TO ZERO OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT OVER 7000 FEET BUT WILL FALL TO AROUND
6000 FEET BY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL IS REALLY NOT AN ISSUE BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS OVER 6000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS KEEP IN RAMPING UP WITH EACH MDL RUN. NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE .75 INCHES TO AROUND AN INCH. THE
REST OF THE NON-DESERT AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH OF RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FOOTHILL AREAS OF THE SAN
GABRIELS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.

MAX TEMPS WILL FALL EACH DAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPS 3 TO 6
DEGREE BLO NORMAL. SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL BE 6 TO 12 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL WITH NO READINGS IN THE 70S ANYWHERE.

THERE WILL BE SOME WINDS SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND MTNS AND THE
ANTELOPE VLY MAY NEED A LOW END WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
AND THEN ITS GONE. ALL MDLS FORECAST THAT A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY AND THEN BUILDING EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID
LEVEL LEFT OVER CLOUDS SUNDAY TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE BLO
NORMAL BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MAX
TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/0545Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0730Z WAS NEAR 1200 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAF SITES WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LIFR CONDITIONS 10Z-17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VLY AND DESERT TAFS.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO MOST COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR
CIGS 12Z-17Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...

30/340 AM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. MODELS HAVE BACKED DOWN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INITIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...THEN
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 301039
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. SKIES WILL TURN CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE MORNING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TO BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
A LITTLE UPPER LOW TO OUR SW HAS SPUN UP A GRIP OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY DIAPHANOUS SO THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO CALL IT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY RATHER THAN JUST
CLOUDY. HGTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BE TRENDING MORE AND MORE ONSHORE AS WELL. THESE TWO THINGS AND
THE EXTRA CLOUDS WILL NOT ALLOW AS MUCH AS A WARM UP AS IT LOOKED
LIKE YESTERDAY AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMALS.

A LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS TROF SHOULD FINALLY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. IT WILL IN FACT PRODUCE
ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS TO COVER THE COASTS AND VLYS AND EVEN THE COASTAL
SLOPES. TOWARDS DAWN THE LOWER ATMOS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH THAT THE
LIFT WITH THE TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE. NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
WHERE THE OROGRAPHICS WILL GIVE THE LIFT JUST A LITTLE MORE OOMPH
THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION.

SPEAKING OF PRECIPITATION THE FIRST RAIN FALL OF THE RAIN SEASON IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SFC FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
BIG EAST PAC TROF WILL MOVE CLOSE THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO WESTERN SLO COUNTY BUT REALLY
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE
HALLOWEEN IS GOING TO BE WASH OUT FOR TRICK OR TREATERS IN SLO AND
WESTERN SBA COUNTIES.

ALL THE REAL ACTION HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE ONE TWO PUNCH OF THE SFC FRONT AND THE POST FRONTAL TROF MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS LIKELY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A CHC OF RAIN. THERE IS A VERY NICE VORT MAX
ALONG WITH A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE TWO
THINGS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE COVERED IN SHOWERS AND SOME
MAY BE HEAVY.

THE VORT MAX EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS WHERE
THERE IS ALWAYS A LITTLE POST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AS
WELL AS THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE VTA AND LA MTNS DUE TO UPSLOPE
CREATED BY NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. ONE LAST SHOT OF VORTICITY
WILL ALSO CREATE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE
SAN GABRIEL COASTAL SLOPES BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH TO ZERO OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT OVER 7000 FEET BUT WILL FALL TO AROUND
6000 FEET BY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL IS REALLY NOT AN ISSUE BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS OVER 6000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS KEEP IN RAMPING UP WITH EACH MDL RUN. NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE .75 INCHES TO AROUND AN INCH. THE
REST OF THE NON-DESERT AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH OF RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FOOTHILL AREAS OF THE SAN
GABRIELS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.

MAX TEMPS WILL FALL EACH DAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPS 3 TO 6
DEGREE BLO NORMAL. SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL BE 6 TO 12 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL WITH NO READINGS IN THE 70S ANYWHERE.

THERE WILL BE SOME WINDS SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND MTNS AND THE
ANTELOPE VLY MAY NEED A LOW END WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
AND THEN ITS GONE. ALL MDLS FORECAST THAT A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY AND THEN BUILDING EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID
LEVEL LEFT OVER CLOUDS SUNDAY TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE BLO
NORMAL BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MAX
TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/0545Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0730Z WAS NEAR 1200 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAF SITES WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LIFR CONDITIONS 10Z-17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VLY AND DESERT TAFS.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO MOST COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR
CIGS 12Z-17Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...

30/340 AM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. MODELS HAVE BACKED DOWN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INITIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...THEN
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 301039
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. SKIES WILL TURN CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE MORNING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TO BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
A LITTLE UPPER LOW TO OUR SW HAS SPUN UP A GRIP OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY DIAPHANOUS SO THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO CALL IT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY RATHER THAN JUST
CLOUDY. HGTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BE TRENDING MORE AND MORE ONSHORE AS WELL. THESE TWO THINGS AND
THE EXTRA CLOUDS WILL NOT ALLOW AS MUCH AS A WARM UP AS IT LOOKED
LIKE YESTERDAY AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMALS.

A LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS TROF SHOULD FINALLY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. IT WILL IN FACT PRODUCE
ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS TO COVER THE COASTS AND VLYS AND EVEN THE COASTAL
SLOPES. TOWARDS DAWN THE LOWER ATMOS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH THAT THE
LIFT WITH THE TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE. NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
WHERE THE OROGRAPHICS WILL GIVE THE LIFT JUST A LITTLE MORE OOMPH
THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION.

SPEAKING OF PRECIPITATION THE FIRST RAIN FALL OF THE RAIN SEASON IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SFC FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
BIG EAST PAC TROF WILL MOVE CLOSE THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO WESTERN SLO COUNTY BUT REALLY
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE
HALLOWEEN IS GOING TO BE WASH OUT FOR TRICK OR TREATERS IN SLO AND
WESTERN SBA COUNTIES.

ALL THE REAL ACTION HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE ONE TWO PUNCH OF THE SFC FRONT AND THE POST FRONTAL TROF MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS LIKELY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A CHC OF RAIN. THERE IS A VERY NICE VORT MAX
ALONG WITH A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE TWO
THINGS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE COVERED IN SHOWERS AND SOME
MAY BE HEAVY.

THE VORT MAX EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS WHERE
THERE IS ALWAYS A LITTLE POST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AS
WELL AS THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE VTA AND LA MTNS DUE TO UPSLOPE
CREATED BY NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. ONE LAST SHOT OF VORTICITY
WILL ALSO CREATE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE
SAN GABRIEL COASTAL SLOPES BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH TO ZERO OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT OVER 7000 FEET BUT WILL FALL TO AROUND
6000 FEET BY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL IS REALLY NOT AN ISSUE BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS OVER 6000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS KEEP IN RAMPING UP WITH EACH MDL RUN. NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE .75 INCHES TO AROUND AN INCH. THE
REST OF THE NON-DESERT AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH OF RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FOOTHILL AREAS OF THE SAN
GABRIELS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.

MAX TEMPS WILL FALL EACH DAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPS 3 TO 6
DEGREE BLO NORMAL. SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL BE 6 TO 12 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL WITH NO READINGS IN THE 70S ANYWHERE.

THERE WILL BE SOME WINDS SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND MTNS AND THE
ANTELOPE VLY MAY NEED A LOW END WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
AND THEN ITS GONE. ALL MDLS FORECAST THAT A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY AND THEN BUILDING EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID
LEVEL LEFT OVER CLOUDS SUNDAY TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE BLO
NORMAL BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MAX
TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/0545Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0730Z WAS NEAR 1200 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAF SITES WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LIFR CONDITIONS 10Z-17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VLY AND DESERT TAFS.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO MOST COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR
CIGS 12Z-17Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...

30/340 AM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. MODELS HAVE BACKED DOWN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INITIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...THEN
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 300603
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE ESCAPES AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND CONTINUE SOUTH TO LOS ANGELES COUNTY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS EVENING.
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
SHOWS SIGNS OF TURNING ONSHORE. THE LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
INITIALIZED THE FLOW PATTERN TOO STRONGLY ONSHORE THIS
EVENING...WHILE 950 MB TEMPERATURES INITIALIZED A TAD TOO WARM.
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
THINNING...THE SCALES SHOULD TIP IN FAVOR OF A COOLING TREND AS
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AN INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A COOLER AIR MASS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOS ANGELES. WITH LOCAL
TEMPERATURES STUDIES SUGGESTING THE AIR MASS A LITTLE COOLER THAN
THE CURRENT FORECAST...ADDITIONAL COOLING WILL BE ADDED FOR
THURSDAY IN AN UPDATE LATER.

THE CIRRUS SHIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY PLAY TRICKS ON THE STRATUS
DECK TONIGHT. A LOW CONFIDENCE PATTERN EXISTS AS THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL INHIBIT LOW CLOUD FORMATION. ANY STRATUS THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT BE VISIBLE ON FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INLAND TO THE
COASTAL SLOPES BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE.

WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN WILL REACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY MORNING FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SLO
COUNTY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
FRONT...THEN PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY AND CONVECTIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS NOW BRING THE UPPER LOW AND INSTABILITY
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING ON
THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD GENERALLY BE 0.25 - 0.50"...WITH SOME 1.00"
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE COASTAL SLOPES. RAINFALL
RATES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE 0.25-0.50" PER HOUR.

RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF VENTURA
AND LA COUNTY...WITH THE SBA SOUTH COAST LIKELY SEEING SOME RAIN BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS WILL
COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH EASTERN LA
COUNTY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.10 - 0.25"...WITH SOME AMOUNTS UP TO
0.50" POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN GABRIELS. NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP TO BE AS CONVECTIVE AS UP NORTH...SO RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 0.25".

SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START OFF AROUND 7000 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE THIS LEVEL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS...THERE COULD BE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SW WINDS
FOR THE LA MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NW AND N ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN NORTHERN VENTURA AND LA COUNTY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WARMING AND DRYING WILL BE THE STORY IN THE LONG
TERM AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE DEVELOPING BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY HIGHS FOR MANY VALLEY AND COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/0545Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0510Z WAS NEAR 900 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAF SITES WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LIFR CONDITIONS 10Z-17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VLY AND DESERT TAFS.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO MOST COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR
CIGS 12Z-17Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 PM.

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD
REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST
SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...HALL/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 300430
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE ESCAPES AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND CONTINUE SOUTH TO LOS ANGELES COUNTY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS EVENING.
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
SHOWS SIGNS OF TURNING ONSHORE. THE LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
INITIALIZED THE FLOW PATTERN TOO STRONGLY ONSHORE THIS
EVENING...WHILE 950 MB TEMPERATURES INITIALIZED A TAD TOO WARM.
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
THINNING...THE SCALES SHOULD TIP IN FAVOR OF A COOLING TREND AS
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AN INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A COOLER AIR MASS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOS ANGELES. WITH LOCAL
TEMPERATURES STUDIES SUGGESTING THE AIR MASS A LITTLE COOLER THAN
THE CURRENT FORECAST...ADDITIONAL COOLING WILL BE ADDED FOR
THURSDAY IN AN UPDATE LATER.

THE CIRRUS SHIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY PLAY TRICKS ON THE STRATUS
DECK TONIGHT. A LOW CONFIDENCE PATTERN EXISTS AS THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL INHIBIT LOW CLOUD FORMATION. ANY STRATUS THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT BE VISIBLE ON FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INLAND TO THE
COASTAL SLOPES BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE.

WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN WILL REACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY MORNING FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SLO
COUNTY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
FRONT...THEN PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY AND CONVECTIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS NOW BRING THE UPPER LOW AND INSTABILITY
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING ON
THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD GENERALLY BE 0.25 - 0.50"...WITH SOME 1.00"
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE COASTAL SLOPES. RAINFALL
RATES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE 0.25-0.50" PER HOUR.

RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF VENTURA
AND LA COUNTY...WITH THE SBA SOUTH COAST LIKELY SEEING SOME RAIN BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS WILL
COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH EASTERN LA
COUNTY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.10 - 0.25"...WITH SOME AMOUNTS UP TO
0.50" POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN GABRIELS. NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP TO BE AS CONVECTIVE AS UP NORTH...SO RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 0.25".

SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START OFF AROUND 7000 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE THIS LEVEL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS...THERE COULD BE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SW WINDS
FOR THE LA MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NW AND N ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN NORTHERN VENTURA AND LA COUNTY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WARMING AND DRYING WILL BE THE STORY IN THE LONG
TERM AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE DEVELOPING BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY HIGHS FOR MANY VALLEY AND COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/0415Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0000Z WAS NEAR 500 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES C.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT PACKAGE AS A THIN MARINE LAYER DEPTH
PERSISTS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY PLAY TRICKS ON STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR
CIGS 12Z-17Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 PM.

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIIBLITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD
REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST
SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...HALL/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 300347
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
847 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE ESCAPES AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND CONTINUE SOUTH TO LOS ANGELES COUNTY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS EVENING.
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
SHOWS SIGNS OF TURNING ONSHORE. THE LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
INITIALIZED THE FLOW PATTERN TOO STRONGLY ONSHORE THIS
EVENING...WHILE 950 MB TEMPERATURES INITIALIZED A TAD TOO WARM.
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
THINNING...THE SCALES SHOULD TIP IN FAVOR OF A COOLING TREND AS
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AN INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A COOLER AIR MASS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOS ANGELES. WITH LOCAL
TEMPERATURES STUDIES SUGGESTING THE AIR MASS A LITTLE COOLER THAN
THE CURRENT FORECAST...ADDITIONAL COOLING WILL BE ADDED FOR
THURSDAY IN AN UPDATE LATER.

THE CIRRUS SHIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY PLAY TRICKS ON THE STRATUS
DECK TONIGHT. A LOW CONFIDENCE PATTERN EXISTS AS THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL INHIBIT LOW CLOUD FORMATION. ANY STRATUS THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT BE VISIBLE ON FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INLAND TO THE
COASTAL SLOPES BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE.

WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN WILL REACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY MORNING FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SLO
COUNTY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
FRONT...THEN PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY AND CONVECTIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS NOW BRING THE UPPER LOW AND INSTABILITY
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING ON
THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD GENERALLY BE 0.25 - 0.50"...WITH SOME 1.00"
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE COASTAL SLOPES. RAINFALL
RATES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE 0.25-0.50" PER HOUR.

RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF VENTURA
AND LA COUNTY...WITH THE SBA SOUTH COAST LIKELY SEEING SOME RAIN BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS WILL
COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH EASTERN LA
COUNTY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.10 - 0.25"...WITH SOME AMOUNTS UP TO
0.50" POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN GABRIELS. NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP TO BE AS CONVECTIVE AS UP NORTH...SO RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 0.25".

SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START OFF AROUND 7000 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE THIS LEVEL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS...THERE COULD BE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SW WINDS
FOR THE LA MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NW AND N ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN NORTHERN VENTURA AND LA COUNTY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WARMING AND DRYING WILL BE THE STORY IN THE LONG
TERM AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE DEVELOPING BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY HIGHS FOR MANY VALLEY AND COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...30/0015Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0000Z WAS NEAR 500 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES C.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT PACKAGE AS A THIN MARINE LAYER DEPTH
PERSISTS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY PLAY TRICKS ON STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT MOST
COASTAL TERMINALS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z...THEN THERE
IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z. AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 06Z
AND 11Z. THE BEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 PM.

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIIBLITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD
REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST
SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 300016
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
515 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WARMING IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE AN OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW HAVE RESULTED IN
WARMING AS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. MANY OF THE VALLEYS AND INLAND
COASTAL AREAS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS OF 2PM. SOME AREAS SUCH
AS THE CENTRAL COAST WERE ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED DUE
TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EXPECTED OFFSHORE FLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOCAL...ALONG WITH OUR END OF THE WEEK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE SW WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING OUT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO PARTS OF
THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
TO THE NORTH. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT DEVELOP SHOULD STAY CLOSE
TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE MARINE LAYER ONLY SEVERAL HUNDRED
FEET DEEP.

ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES OF COOLING WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL TOMORROW. COOLING WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM NW. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
INLAND TO THE COASTAL SLOPES BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE.

WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN WILL REACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY MORNING FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SLO
COUNTY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
FRONT...THEN PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY AND CONVECTIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS NOW BRING THE UPPER LOW AND INSTABILITY
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING ON
THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD GENERALLY BE 0.25 - 0.50"...WITH SOME 1.00"
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE COASTAL SLOPES. RAINFALL
RATES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE 0.25-0.50" PER HOUR.

RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF VENTURA
AND LA COUNTY...WITH THE SBA SOUTH COAST LIKELY SEEING SOME RAIN BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS WILL
COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH EASTERN LA
COUNTY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.10 - 0.25"...WITH SOME AMOUNTS UP TO
0.50" POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN GABRIELS. NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP TO BE AS CONVECTIVE AS UP NORTH...SO RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 0.25".

SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START OFF AROUND 7000 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE THIS LEVEL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS...THERE COULD BE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SW WINDS
FOR THE LA MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NW AND N ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN NORTHERN VENTURA AND LA COUNTY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...

WARMING AND DRYING WILL BE THE STORY IN THE LONG TERM AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY HIGHS FOR MANY VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS WILL BE WELL INTO
THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...30/0015Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0000Z WAS NEAR 500 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES C.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT PACKAGE AS A THIN MARINE LAYER DEPTH
PERSISTS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY PLAY TRICKS ON STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT MOST
COASTAL TERMINALS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z...THEN THERE
IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z. AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 06Z
AND 11Z. THE BEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...29/200 PM.

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE OCCURRING IN THE NEAR TERM.

WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY
THEN ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 292220
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WARMING IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE AN OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW HAVE RESULTED IN
WARMING AS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. MANY OF THE VALLEYS AND INLAND
COASTAL AREAS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS OF 2PM. SOME AREAS SUCH
AS THE CENTRAL COAST WERE ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED DUE
TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EXPECTED OFFSHORE FLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOCAL...ALONG WITH OUR END OF THE WEEK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE SW WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING OUT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO PARTS OF
THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
TO THE NORTH. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT DEVELOP SHOULD STAY CLOSE
TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE MARINE LAYER ONLY SEVERAL HUNDRED
FEET DEEP.

ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES OF COOLING WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL TOMORROW. COOLING WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM NW. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
INLAND TO THE COASTAL SLOPES BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE.

WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN WILL REACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY MORNING FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SLO
COUNTY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
FRONT...THEN PRECIPICATION WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY AND CONVECTIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS NOW BRING THE UPPER LOW AND INSTABILITY
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING ON
THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD GENERALLY BE 0.25 - 0.50"...WITH SOME 1.00"
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE COASTAL SLOPES. RAINFALL
RATES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE 0.25-0.50" PER HOUR.

RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF VENTURA
AND LA COUNTY...WITH THE SBA SOUTH COAST LIKELY SEEING SOME RAIN BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS WILL
COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH EASTERN LA
COUNTY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.10 - 0.25"...WITH SOME AMOUNTS UP TO
0.50" POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN GABRIELS. NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP TO BE AS CONVECTIVE AS UP NORTH...SO RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 0.25".

SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START OFF AROUND 7000 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE THIS LEVEL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS...THERE COULD BE SOME ADIVSORY LEVEL SW WINDS
FOR THE LA MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NW AND N ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBLITY OF SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN NORTHERN VENTURA AND LA COUNTY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...

WARMING AND DRYING WILL BE THE STORY IN THE LONG TERM AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY HIGHS FOR MANY VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS WILL BE WELL INTO
THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1800Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1700Z WAS NEAR 600 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

GENERALLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH COASTAL
TAF SITES FROM KSBA NORTHWARD ARE ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE FORECASTS DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE CLOUD COVER. COASTAL TAF SITES SOUTH
OF KSBA ARE LIKELY TO SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...29/200 PM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE OCCURRING IN THE NEAR TERM.

WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY
THEN ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 291800
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER WARM SUNNY DAY EXPECTED TODAY...THEN A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE RIDGE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. JUST TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MAKE SURE EVERYWHERE WAS JUST AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVERHEAD AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING MOST PLACES SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER TODAY...WITH THE MOST NOTICABLE CHANGE IN AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF PERFECTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE
AGAIN...THE MAIN FOCUS OF TODAY WILL BE TRYING TO FINE TUNE THE
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT FIRST GLANCE...THE MODELS LOOK A LITTLE
WETTER TODAY AS THEY BRING THE UPPER LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...SO
MAY BE INCREASING THE POPS FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES WITH THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH A EAST PAC TROF MOVE INTO THE AREA. MORE
IMPORTANTLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL TURN ONSHORE AND HGTS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL
FALL EVERYWHERE. COASTAL TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT INLAND TEMPS
THOUGH COOLER THAN TODAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE COUNTRY FRIDAY WITH
BIG TROFS ACROSS THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND A LARGE RIDGE IN THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF ALONG WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CREATE AN EXTENSIVE MARINE CLOUD
LAYER WHICH WILL COVER THE COASTS AND ALMOST ALL OF THE VLYS.

THE SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL COAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROF WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME
RAIN COULD FALL FROM CAMBRIA NORTH. ALL THE SPECTRAL MDLS AGREE THAT
RAIN WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM
BEGS TO DIFFER AND HOLDS OFF. SO WENT WITH A 70 PERCENT CHC OF RAIN
INSTEAD OF 90 PERCENT DUE TO NAM BUT STILL LIGHT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP LIKE A BRICK WITH MID 60S
ACROSS MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTY AND ONLY LOWER TO MID 70S FOR LA
AND VTA COUNTIES.

IT LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL
SEE SOME RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THE ONLY QUESTION IS WILL IT RAIN BEFORE
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST MDL AND THE EC IS THE
QUICKEST.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROF ROLLS OVERHEAD
AND THE PVA IS REPLACED BY NVA. BY AFTERNOON THE ONLY SHOWERS
REMAINING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES DUE TO NORTH FLOW AND THE
SAN GABRIEL VLY AND FOOTHILLS DUE TO WRAP AROUND UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
DAY WILL START OF CLOUDY BUT SKIES WILL START TO DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

COASTAL AND VLY MAX TEMPS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 60S.

QPF FOR THE EVENT IS PRETTY TRICKY. THE MDLS HAVE BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT. THE NEW EC FOR EXAMPLE IS VERY WET AND HAS SOME 6
TENTHS OF AN INCH 6 HOUR AMOUNTS. THE NAM FCSTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH FOR LA AND VTA COUNTIES WITH QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THE GFS FORECASTS ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH MORE
THAN THE NAM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE EC IS ALL BY ITSELF
FORECASTING ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PRELIMINARY AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THERE COULD BE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE USUAL RAIN
MAGNET SPOTS NEAR HEARST CASTLE AND PASADENA FOOTHILLS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 6000 FEET LATE BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM (SUN-TUE)...
SOME NORTH SLOPE CLOUDS WILL LINGER SUNDAY MORNING BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT FOR THE STORM. BY AFTERNOON SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EVERYWHERE.

RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1800Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1700Z WAS NEAR 600 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

GENERALLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH COASTAL
TAF SITES FROM KSBA NORTHWARD ARE ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE FORECASTS DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE CLOUD COVER. COASTAL TAF SITES SOUTH
OF KSBA ARE LIKELY TO SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE OCCURRING IN THE NEAR TERM.

WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY
THEN ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/RORKE
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 291617
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER WARM SUNNY DAY EXPECTED TODAY...THEN A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE RIDGE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. JUST TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MAKE SURE EVERYWHERE WAS JUST AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVERHEAD AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING MOST PLACES SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER TODAY...WITH THE MOST NOTICABLE CHANGE IN AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF PERFECTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE
AGAIN...THE MAIN FOCUS OF TODAY WILL BE TRYING TO FINE TUNE THE
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT FIRST GLANCE...THE MODELS LOOK A LITTLE
WETTER TODAY AS THEY BRING THE UPPER LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...SO
MAY BE INCREASING THE POPS FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES WITH THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH A EAST PAC TROF MOVE INTO THE AREA. MORE
IMPORTANTLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL TURN ONSHORE AND HGTS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL
FALL EVERYWHERE. COASTAL TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT INLAND TEMPS
THOUGH COOLER THAN TODAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE COUNTRY FRIDAY WITH
BIG TROFS ACROSS THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND A LARGE RIDGE IN THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF ALONG WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CREATE AN EXTENSIVE MARINE CLOUD
LAYER WHICH WILL COVER THE COASTS AND ALMOST ALL OF THE VLYS.

THE SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL COAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROF WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME
RAIN COULD FALL FROM CAMBRIA NORTH. ALL THE SPECTRAL MDLS AGREE THAT
RAIN WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM
BEGS TO DIFFER AND HOLDS OFF. SO WENT WITH A 70 PERCENT CHC OF RAIN
INSTEAD OF 90 PERCENT DUE TO NAM BUT STILL LIGHT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP LIKE A BRICK WITH MID 60S
ACROSS MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTY AND ONLY LOWER TO MID 70S FOR LA
AND VTA COUNTIES.

IT LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL
SEE SOME RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THE ONLY QUESTION IS WILL IT RAIN BEFORE
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST MDL AND THE EC IS THE
QUICKEST.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROF ROLLS OVERHEAD
AND THE PVA IS REPLACED BY NVA. BY AFTERNOON THE ONLY SHOWERS
REMAINING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES DUE TO NORTH FLOW AND THE
SAN GABRIEL VLY AND FOOTHILLS DUE TO WRAP AROUND UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
DAY WILL START OF CLOUDY BUT SKIES WILL START TO DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

COASTAL AND VLY MAX TEMPS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 60S.

QPF FOR THE EVENT IS PRETTY TRICKY. THE MDLS HAVE BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT. THE NEW EC FOR EXAMPLE IS VERY WET AND HAS SOME 6
TENTHS OF AN INCH 6 HOUR AMOUNTS. THE NAM FCSTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH FOR LA AND VTA COUNTIES WITH QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THE GFS FORECASTS ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH MORE
THAN THE NAM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE EC IS ALL BY ITSELF
FORECASTING ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PRELIMINARY AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THERE COULD BE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE USUAL RAIN
MAGNET SPOTS NEAR HEARST CASTLE AND PASADENA FOOTHILLS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 6000 FEET LATE BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM (SUN-TUE)...
SOME NORTH SLOPE CLOUDS WILL LINGER SUNDAY MORNING BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT FOR THE STORM. BY AFTERNOON SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EVERYWHERE.

RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1045Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1040Z WAS NEAR 800 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL CAVU TAFS...EXCEPT KLAX AND KLGB WHERE THERE
IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS FORM 12Z-17Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 06Z. THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS FOR LA COUNTY COAST BETWEEN 06-09Z THEN SURGING NORTH INTO
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST BETWEEN 07-10Z WITH LOWER 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL SURGE NORTH INTO KSBA...AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR NORTH AS KSMX AFTER 10Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SOUTHERLY
SURGE OF STRATUS COULD AFFECT KSMX BY 11Z THU MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
13-16Z EARLY THIS MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDS AFTER
09Z EARLY THU MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE OCCURRING IN THE NEAR TERM.

WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY
THEN ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/RORKE
AVIATION...KAPLAN
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 291127
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...THEN AS A TROUGH APPROACHES ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE RIDGE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
ONE MORE DAY OF CLEAR SKIES TODAY. TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF
THE NEXT 7 WITH 585 DM HGTS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. OFFSHORE FLOW IS
NOT TOO GREAT AND THE COASTS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. VLY TEMPS WILL STILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LIGHT CANYON WINDS THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING ABOVE 15 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE UP
FROM ORANGE COUNTY INTO LA COUNTY AND THEN VENTURA COUNTY. THERE IS
STILL ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS NOT HAPPENING AND SKIES
REMAINING CLEAR AGAIN.

SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH A EAST PAC TROF MOVE INTO THE AREA. MORE
IMPORTANTLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL TURN ONSHORE AND HGTS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL
FALL EVERYWHERE. COASTAL TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT INLAND TEMPS
THOUGH COOLER THAN TODAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE COUNTRY FRIDAY WITH
BIG TROFS ACROSS THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND A LARGE RIDGE IN THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF ALONG WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CREATE AN EXTENSIVE MARINE CLOUD
LAYER WHICH WILL COVER THE COASTS AND ALMOST ALL OF THE VLYS.

THE SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL COAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROF WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME
RAIN COULD FALL FROM CAMBRIA NORTH. ALL THE SPECTRAL MDLS AGREE THAT
RAIN WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM
BEGS TO DIFFER AND HOLDS OFF. SO WENT WITH A 70 PERCENT CHC OF RAIN
INSTEAD OF 90 PERCENT DUE TO NAM BUT STILL LIGHT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP LIKE A BRICK WITH MID 60S
ACROSS MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTY AND ONLY LOWER TO MID 70S FOR LA
AND VTA COUNTIES.

IT LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL
SEE SOME RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THE ONLY QUESTION IS WILL IT RAIN BEFORE
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST MDL AND THE EC IS THE
QUICKEST.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROF ROLLS OVERHEAD
AND THE PVA IS REPLACED BY NVA. BY AFTERNOON THE ONLY SHOWERS
REMAINING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES DUE TO NORTH FLOW AND THE
SAN GABRIEL VLY AND FOOTHILLS DUE TO WRAP AROUND UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
DAY WILL START OF CLOUDY BUT SKIES WILL START TO DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

COASTAL AND VLY MAX TEMPS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 60S.

QPF FOR THE EVENT IS PRETTY TRICKY. THE MDLS HAVE BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT. THE NEW EC FOR EXAMPLE IS VERY WET AND HAS SOME 6
TENTHS OF AN INCH 6 HOUR AMOUNTS. THE NAM FCSTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH FOR LA AND VTA COUNTIES WITH QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THE GFS FORECASTS ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH MORE
THAN THE NAM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE EC IS ALL BY ITSELF
FORECASTING ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PRELIMINARY AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THERE COULD BE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE USUAL RAIN
MAGNET SPOTS NEAR HEARST CASTLE AND PASADENA FOOTHILLS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 6000 FEET LATE BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM (SUN-TUE)...
SOME NORTH SLOPE CLOUDS WILL LINGER SUNDAY MORNING BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT FOR THE STORM. BY AFTERNOON SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EVERYWHERE.

RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1045Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1040Z WAS NEAR 800 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL CAVU TAFS...EXCEPT KLAX AND KLGB WHERE THERE
IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS FORM 12Z-17Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 06Z. THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS FOR LA COUNTY COAST BETWEEN 06-09Z THEN SURGING NORTH INTO
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST BETWEEN 07-10Z WITH LOWER 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL SURGE NORTH INTO KSBA...AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR NORTH AS KSMX AFTER 10Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SOUTHERLY
SURGE OF STRATUS COULD AFFECT KSMX BY 11Z THU MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
13-16Z EARLY THIS MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDS AFTER
09Z EARLY THU MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

29/345 AM

WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY
THEN ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 291046
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...THEN AS A TROUGH APPROACHES ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE RIDGE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
ONE MORE DAY OF CLEAR SKIES TODAY. TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF
THE NEXT 7 WITH 585 DM HGTS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. OFFSHORE FLOW IS
NOT TOO GREAT AND THE COASTS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. VLY TEMPS WILL STILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LIGHT CANYON WINDS THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING ABOVE 15 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE UP
FROM ORANGE COUNTY INTO LA COUNTY AND THEN VENTURA COUNTY. THERE IS
STILL ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS NOT HAPPENING AND SKIES
REMAINING CLEAR AGAIN.

SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH A EAST PAC TROF MOVE INTO THE AREA. MORE
IMPORTANTLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL TURN ONSHORE AND HGTS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL
FALL EVERYWHERE. COASTAL TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT INLAND TEMPS
THOUGH COOLER THAN TODAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE COUNTRY FRIDAY WITH
BIG TROFS ACROSS THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND A LARGE RIDGE IN THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF ALONG WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CREATE AN EXTENSIVE MARINE CLOUD
LAYER WHICH WILL COVER THE COASTS AND ALMOST ALL OF THE VLYS.

THE SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL COAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROF WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME
RAIN COULD FALL FROM CAMBRIA NORTH. ALL THE SPECTRAL MDLS AGREE THAT
RAIN WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM
BEGS TO DIFFER AND HOLDS OFF. SO WENT WITH A 70 PERCENT CHC OF RAIN
INSTEAD OF 90 PERCENT DUE TO NAM BUT STILL LIGHT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP LIKE A BRICK WITH MID 60S
ACROSS MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTY AND ONLY LOWER TO MID 70S FOR LA
AND VTA COUNTIES.

IT LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL
SEE SOME RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THE ONLY QUESTION IS WILL IT RAIN BEFORE
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST MDL AND THE EC IS THE
QUICKEST.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROF ROLLS OVERHEAD
AND THE PVA IS REPLACED BY NVA. BY AFTERNOON THE ONLY SHOWERS
REMAINING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES DUE TO NORTH FLOW AND THE
SAN GABRIEL VLY AND FOOTHILLS DUE TO WRAP AROUND UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
DAY WILL START OF CLOUDY BUT SKIES WILL START TO DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

COASTAL AND VLY MAX TEMPS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 60S.

QPF FOR THE EVENT IS PRETTY TRICKY. THE MDLS HAVE BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT. THE NEW EC FOR EXAMPLE IS VERY WET AND HAS SOME 6
TENTHS OF AN INCH 6 HOUR AMOUNTS. THE NAM FCSTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH FOR LA AND VTA COUNTIES WITH QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THE GFS FORECASTS ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH MORE
THAN THE NAM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE EC IS ALL BY ITSELF
FORECASTING ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PRELIMINARY AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THERE COULD BE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE USUAL RAIN
MAGNET SPOTS NEAR HEARST CASTLE AND PASADENA FOOTHILLS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 6000 FEET LATE BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM (SUN-TUE)...
SOME NORTH SLOPE CLOUDS WILL LINGER SUNDAY MORNING BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT FOR THE STORM. BY AFTERNOON SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EVERYWHERE.

RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1045Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1040Z WAS NEAR 800 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL CAVU TAFS...EXCEPT KLAX AND KLGB WHERE THERE
IS A 10 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS FORM 12Z-17Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
13-16Z EARLY THIS MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDS AFTER
09Z EARLY THU MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

29/345 AM

WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY
THEN ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 291046
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...THEN AS A TROUGH APPROACHES ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE RIDGE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
ONE MORE DAY OF CLEAR SKIES TODAY. TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF
THE NEXT 7 WITH 585 DM HGTS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. OFFSHORE FLOW IS
NOT TOO GREAT AND THE COASTS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. VLY TEMPS WILL STILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LIGHT CANYON WINDS THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING ABOVE 15 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE UP
FROM ORANGE COUNTY INTO LA COUNTY AND THEN VENTURA COUNTY. THERE IS
STILL ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS NOT HAPPENING AND SKIES
REMAINING CLEAR AGAIN.

SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH A EAST PAC TROF MOVE INTO THE AREA. MORE
IMPORTANTLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL TURN ONSHORE AND HGTS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL
FALL EVERYWHERE. COASTAL TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT INLAND TEMPS
THOUGH COOLER THAN TODAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE COUNTRY FRIDAY WITH
BIG TROFS ACROSS THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND A LARGE RIDGE IN THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF ALONG WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CREATE AN EXTENSIVE MARINE CLOUD
LAYER WHICH WILL COVER THE COASTS AND ALMOST ALL OF THE VLYS.

THE SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL COAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROF WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME
RAIN COULD FALL FROM CAMBRIA NORTH. ALL THE SPECTRAL MDLS AGREE THAT
RAIN WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM
BEGS TO DIFFER AND HOLDS OFF. SO WENT WITH A 70 PERCENT CHC OF RAIN
INSTEAD OF 90 PERCENT DUE TO NAM BUT STILL LIGHT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP LIKE A BRICK WITH MID 60S
ACROSS MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTY AND ONLY LOWER TO MID 70S FOR LA
AND VTA COUNTIES.

IT LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL
SEE SOME RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THE ONLY QUESTION IS WILL IT RAIN BEFORE
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST MDL AND THE EC IS THE
QUICKEST.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROF ROLLS OVERHEAD
AND THE PVA IS REPLACED BY NVA. BY AFTERNOON THE ONLY SHOWERS
REMAINING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES DUE TO NORTH FLOW AND THE
SAN GABRIEL VLY AND FOOTHILLS DUE TO WRAP AROUND UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
DAY WILL START OF CLOUDY BUT SKIES WILL START TO DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

COASTAL AND VLY MAX TEMPS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 60S.

QPF FOR THE EVENT IS PRETTY TRICKY. THE MDLS HAVE BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT. THE NEW EC FOR EXAMPLE IS VERY WET AND HAS SOME 6
TENTHS OF AN INCH 6 HOUR AMOUNTS. THE NAM FCSTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH FOR LA AND VTA COUNTIES WITH QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THE GFS FORECASTS ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH MORE
THAN THE NAM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE EC IS ALL BY ITSELF
FORECASTING ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PRELIMINARY AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THERE COULD BE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE USUAL RAIN
MAGNET SPOTS NEAR HEARST CASTLE AND PASADENA FOOTHILLS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 6000 FEET LATE BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM (SUN-TUE)...
SOME NORTH SLOPE CLOUDS WILL LINGER SUNDAY MORNING BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT FOR THE STORM. BY AFTERNOON SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EVERYWHERE.

RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1045Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1040Z WAS NEAR 800 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL CAVU TAFS...EXCEPT KLAX AND KLGB WHERE THERE
IS A 10 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS FORM 12Z-17Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
13-16Z EARLY THIS MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDS AFTER
09Z EARLY THU MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

29/345 AM

WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY
THEN ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 290538
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A TROUGH APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE RIDGE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE WEST. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARMING TREND
WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE WARMING IN THE CURRENT PACKAGE SEEMS AGREEABLE...AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS ARE PLANNED FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A RATHER THIN MARINE LAYER DEPTH...NEAR 700 FEET...REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS ARE BACKING
OFF THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A THIN MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL KEEP
THE FOOTHILLS WARM TONIGHT...WITH SOME FOOTHILL LOCATIONS ONLY
SEEING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SOME OF THE INTERIOR AND WIND-SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL REMAIN ON
CHILLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE
ANTELOPE...OJAI AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WELL...RESULTING IN COOLING FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. COULD
ALSO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

ANY RAIN N OF PT CONCEPTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION WILL COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE COASTAL SLOPES N OF
PT CONCEPTION SHOULD BE ABOUT 0.25 - 0.50" BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 0.50" THAT
IT PREVIOUSLY HAD. EITHER WAY MEASURABLE RAIN ON THE CENTRAL COAST
IS A SURE THING WITH THIS SYSTEM...ITS JUST A MATTER OF EXACTLY WHEN
AND HOW MUCH.

FOR AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION...ANY CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTIES WILL BE LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT A GUARANTEE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ONLY GOING WITH 20-30% POPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IF ANYTHING FALLS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE 0.10"
OR LESS.

COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING ABOVE 6000 FT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. THE
AIRMASS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH COLD AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AS WELL. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...BUT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE QUITE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ACTUAL
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. SHOWERS COULD
LINGER OVER THE LA AND VENTURA MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES LASTING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHEN NW WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN TO
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FOR
THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS FROM THE 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

A WARMING TEND IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/0530Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0505Z WAS NEAR 700 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 222 DEGREES C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL CAVU TAFS...EXCEPT KLAX AND KLGB WHERE THERE
IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS FORM 12Z-17Z.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR
CONDS FORM 12Z-17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 PM.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS COULD
REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY THEN
ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 290351
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
851 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A TROUGH APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE RIDGE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE WEST. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARMING TREND
WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE WARMING IN THE CURRENT PACKAGE SEEMS AGREEABLE...AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS ARE PLANNED FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A RATHER THIN MARINE LAYER DEPTH...NEAR 700 FEET...REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS ARE BACKING
OFF THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A THIN MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL KEEP
THE FOOTHILLS WARM TONIGHT...WITH SOME FOOTHILL LOCATIONS ONLY
SEEING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SOME OF THE INTERIOR AND WIND-SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL REMAIN ON
CHILLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE
ANTELOPE...OJAI AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WELL...RESULTING IN COOLING FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. COULD
ALSO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

ANY RAIN N OF PT CONCEPTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION WILL COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE COASTAL SLOPES N OF
PT CONCEPTION SHOULD BE ABOUT 0.25 - 0.50" BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 0.50" THAT
IT PREVIOUSLY HAD. EITHER WAY MEASURABLE RAIN ON THE CENTRAL COAST
IS A SURE THING WITH THIS SYSTEM...ITS JUST A MATTER OF EXACTLY WHEN
AND HOW MUCH.

FOR AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION...ANY CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTIES WILL BE LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT A GUARANTEE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ONLY GOING WITH 20-30% POPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IF ANYTHING FALLS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE 0.10"
OR LESS.

COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING ABOVE 6000 FT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. THE
AIRMASS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH COLD AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AS WELL. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...BUT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE QUITE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ACTUAL
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. SHOWERS COULD
LINGER OVER THE LA AND VENTURA MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES LASTING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHEN NW WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN TO
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FOR
THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS FROM THE 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

A WARMING TEND IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...28/2342Z.

THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT KLAX AT 2342Z WAS NEAR 700 FT. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE AT TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH 08Z.

KLAX...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z
AND 16Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 PM.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS COULD
REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY THEN
ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 282342
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
442 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARM WEATHER INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE PEAK ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD LOW WILL MOVE IN ON
FRIDAY FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL
MOVE OUT ON MONDAY FOR A WARMING TREND AND OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...

NOTHING BUT CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE UP
SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST PLACES AS A RESULT. LESS NOTICEABLE CHANGE
FOR THE SBA...VENTURA...AND LA COASTAL AREAS...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
KICKED IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE IT STARTS TO
GET A LITTLE UNSETTLED. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
THE LONG BEACH AREA...AS A WEAK EDDY SPINS UP. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY TOMORROW. THIS ALONG WITH SOME MORE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL MORE
DEGREES OF WARMING...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY CREEP
A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE LA AND VENTURA COAST TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE AS WELL...RESULTING IN COOLING FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. COULD ALSO SEE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

ANY RAIN N OF PT CONCEPTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION WILL COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE COASTAL SLOPES N OF
PT CONCEPTION SHOULD BE ABOUT 0.25 - 0.50" BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 0.50" THAT
IT PREVIOUSLY HAD. EITHER WAY MEASURABLE RAIN ON THE CENTRAL COAST
IS A SURE THING WITH THIS SYSTEM...ITS JUST A MATTER OF EXACTLY WHEN
AND HOW MUCH.

FOR AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION...ANY CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTIES WILL BE LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT A GUARANTEE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ONLY GOING WITH 20-30% POPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IF ANYTHING FALLS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE 0.10"
OR LESS.

COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING ABOVE 6000 FT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. THE
AIRMASS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH COLD AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AS WELL. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...BUT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE QUITE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ACTUAL
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AND
BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE LA AND
VENTURA MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COOL UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH
FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES LASTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHEN NW
WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
ALONG THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS FROM THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

A WARMING TEND IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...28/2342Z.

THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT KLAX AT 2342Z WAS NEAR 700 FT. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE AT TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH 08Z.

KLAX...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z
AND 16Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS IS PRIMARILY IN PLACE FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THOSE ZONES.  HOWEVER...THE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY
THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
ADVANCE OF A WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT. WINDS COULD REACH GALE
FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY THEN THROUGH ALL
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 282207
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
305 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARM WEATHER INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE PEAK ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD LOW WILL MOVE IN ON
FRIDAY FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL
MOVE OUT ON MONDAY FOR A WARMING TREND AND OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...

NOTHING BUT CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE UP
SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST PLACES AS A RESULT. LESS NOTICABLE CHANGE
FOR THE SBA...VENTURA...AND LA COASTAL AREAS...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
KICKED IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE IT STARTS TO
GET A LITTLE UNSETTLED. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
THE LONG BEACH AREA...AS A WEAK EDDY SPINS UP. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY TOMORROW. THIS ALONG WITH SOME MORE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL MORE
DEGREES OF WARMING...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY CREEP
A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE LA AND VENTURA COAST TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE AS WELL...RESULTING IN COOLING FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. COULD ALSO SEE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

ANY RAIN N OF PT CONCEPTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION WILL COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE COASTAL SLOPES N OF
PT CONCEPTION SHOULD BE ABOUT 0.25 - 0.50" BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 0.50" THAT
IT PREVIOUSLY HAD. EITHER WAY MEASURABLE RAIN ON THE CENTRAL COAST
IS A SURE THING WITH THIS SYSTEM...ITS JUST A MATTER OF EXACTLY WHEN
AND HOW MUCH.

FOR AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION...ANY CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTIES WILL BE LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT A GUARANTEE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ONLY GOING WITH 20-30% POPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IF ANYTHING FALLS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE 0.10"
OR LESS.

COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING ABOVE 6000 FT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. THE
AIRMASS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH COLD AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AS WELL. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...BUT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE QUITE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ACTUAL
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AND
BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE LA AND
VENTURA MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COOL UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH
FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES LASTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHEN NW
WINDS MAY STENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
ALONG THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS FROM THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

A WARMING TEND IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESIVE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
RESULT IN DRIER CONDTIONS AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

AT 1725Z AT KLAX THERE WAS A MINIMAL INVERSION.  THE BASE WAS AT OR
BELOW 100 FT AND THE TOP WAS AT 200 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20
DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS A FIVE PERCENT CHANCE
OF MVFR VSBYS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO HAZE AND A TEN PERCENT CHANCE
OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR KLAX AND KLGB 10Z-19Z DUE TO A WEAK CATALINA EDDY
SPIN UP.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A FIVE PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO HAZE AND A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS 10Z-19Z DUE TO A WEAK CATALINA SPIN UP.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 AM

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS IS PRIMARILY IN PLACE FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THOSE ZONES.  HOWEVER... THE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY
THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
ADVANCE OF A WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT.   WINDS COULD REACH GALE
FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY THEN THROUGH ALL
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.  THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 281801
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

A BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
COOL TEMPERATURES AND BRING POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED REBUILD AND BRING
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...

NO CHANGES NECESSARY WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING TODAY. VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BEACH IN THE MID 70S.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE LIGHT
RAIN EVENT FRIDAY-SATURDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE...THE FORECAST LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. MAY END UP INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY ON THE
CENTRAL COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...BUT ITS STILL LOOKING LIKE
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

QUIET WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE AREA...PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY TODAY.
A WEAK EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND WILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT BRING
SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST...BUT THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS ONE MORE DAY OF CLEAR SKIES.
OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AND THE EDDY REMAINS THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LA AND VTA COASTS.

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE PRETTY GOOD COASTAL COOLING ON THURSDAY ESP FOR SLO AND WESTERN
SBA COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL EYES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE FIRST REAL RAIN OF THE SEASON
DEVELOPS. A COLD 535DM UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH OREGON AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TROF WILL SWING TOWARDS THE CA COAST. THE SFC FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SLO COUNTY COAST RIGHT AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY. THE MDLS
HAVE BEEN HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND
NOW ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR SLO
COUNTY BUT IF THIS ROUND OF MDLS SOLNS IS CORRECT THE MORNING WILL
BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MDLS BRING
THE SFC FRONT AND RAIN TO THE SLO AND MOST OF SBA COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THEN INITIAL FRONT PRETTY MUCH FIZZLES OUT AND SHOULD NOT BRING RAIN
TO VTA OR LA COUNTY. A POST FRONTAL TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TROF WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BRING A CHC OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AS USUAL THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES. ALL THE ACTION WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT
EXCEPT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH
SLOPES.

ALMOST ALL OF THE COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS SO SNOW
WILL NOT BE A CONCERN...EXCEPT SAT NIGHT WHERE THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET.

RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE NW CORNER OF SLO
COUNTY WHERE THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF RAIN.

THE CLOUDS...THE RAIN... AND THE LOWER HGTS WILL ALL CONSPIRE TO
REALLY DROP TEMPS. FRIDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF COOLING
SATURDAY.

SW FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN A SLIGHT RIDGE
DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY. THE MARINE INVERSION WILL BE WIPED OUT AND
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM EACH DAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN BLO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0900Z

AT 1725Z AT KLAX THERE WAS A MINIMAL INVERSION.  THE BASE WAS AT OR
BELOW 100 FT AND THE TOP WAS AT 200 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20
DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS A FIVE PERCENT CHANCE
OF MVFR VSBYS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO HAZE AND A TEN PERCENT CHANCE
OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR KLAX AND KLGB 10Z-19Z DUE TO A WEAK CATALINA EDDY
SPIN UP.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A FIVE PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO HAZE AND A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS 10Z-19Z DUE TO A WEAK CATALINA SPIN UP.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS IS PRIMARILY IN PLACE FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THOSE ZONES.  WINDS HAVE WEAKENED A BIT THIS MORNING AND
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE ADVANCE OF A WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT.  WINDS COULD REACH
GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY THEN THROUGH ALL
COASTAL WATERS BY MID SATURDAY AND THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 281631
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

A BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
COOL TEMPERATURES AND BRING POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED REBUILD AND BRING
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...

NO CHANGES NECESSARY WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING TODAY. VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BEACH IN THE MID 70S.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE LIGHT
RAIN EVENT FRIDAY-SATURDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE...THE FORECAST LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. MAY END UP INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY ON THE
CENTRAL COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...BUT ITS STILL LOOKING LIKE
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

QUITE WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE AREA...PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY TODAY.
A WEAK EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND WILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT BRING
SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST...BUT THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS ONE MORE DAY OF CLEAR SKIES.
OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AND THE EDDY REMAINS THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LA AND VTA COASTS.

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE PRETTY GOOD COASTAL COOLING ON THURSDAY ESP FOR SLO AND WESTERN
SBA COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL EYES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE FIRST REAL RAIN OF THE SEASON
DEVELOPS. A COLD 535DM UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH OREGON AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TROF WILL SWING TOWARDS THE CA COAST. THE SFC FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SLO COUNTY COAST RIGHT AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY. THE MDLS
HAVE BEEN HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND
NOW ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR SLO
COUNTY BUT IF THIS ROUND OF MDLS SOLNS IS CORRECT THE MORNING WILL
BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MDLS BRING
THE SFC FRONT AND RAIN TO THE SLO AND MOST OF SBA COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THEN INITIAL FRONT PRETTY MUCH FIZZLES OUT AND SHOULD NOT BRING RAIN
TO VTA OR LA COUNTY. A POST FRONTAL TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TROF WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BRING A CHC OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AS USUAL THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES. ALL THE ACTION WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT
EXCEPT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH
SLOPES.

ALMOST ALL OF THE COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS SO SNOW
WILL NOT BE A CONCERN...EXCEPT SAT NIGHT WHERE THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET.

RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE NW CORNER OF SLO
COUNTY WHERE THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF RAIN.

THE CLOUDS...THE RAIN... AND THE LOWER HGTS WILL ALL CONSPIRE TO
REALLY DROP TEMPS. FRIDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF COOLING
SATURDAY.

SW FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN A SLIGHT RIDGE
DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY. THE MARINE INVERSION WILL BE WIPED OUT AND
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM EACH DAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN BLO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0900Z

AT THIS TIME THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR MARINE INVERSION.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE WITH VFR CONDS OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBYS NEAR COAST BETWEEN
12-16Z ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WEAK OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS. LOCAL LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LOCAL
MOUNTAIN PASSES...STRONGEST BETWEEN 12Z-20Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z THIS MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS IS PRIMARILY IN PLACE FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THOSE ZONES.  WINDS HAVE WEAKENED A BIT THIS MORNING AND
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE ADVANCE OF A WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT.  WINDS COULD REACH
GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY THEN THROUGH ALL
COASTAL WATERS BY MID SATURDAY AND THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/RORKE
AVIATION...KAPLAN
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 281559
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
856 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
COOL TEMPERATURES AND BRING POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED REBUILD AND BRING
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...

NO CHANGES NECESSARY WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING TODAY. VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BEACH IN THE MID 70S.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE LIGHT
RAIN EVENT FRIDAY-SATURDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE...THE FORECAST LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. MAY END UP INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY ON THE
CENTRAL COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...BUT ITS STILL LOOKING LIKE
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

QUITE WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE AREA...PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY TODAY.
A WEAK EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND WILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT BRING
SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST...BUT THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS ONE MORE DAY OF CLEAR SKIES.
OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AND THE EDDY REMAINS THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LA AND VTA COASTS.

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE PRETTY GOOD COASTAL COOLING ON THURSDAY ESP FOR SLO AND WESTERN
SBA COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL EYES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE FIRST REAL RAIN OF THE SEASON
DEVELOPS. A COLD 535DM UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH OREGON AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TROF WILL SWING TOWARDS THE CA COAST. THE SFC FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SLO COUNTY COAST RIGHT AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY. THE MDLS
HAVE BEEN HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND
NOW ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR SLO
COUNTY BUT IF THIS ROUND OF MDLS SOLNS IS CORRECT THE MORNING WILL
BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MDLS BRING
THE SFC FRONT AND RAIN TO THE SLO AND MOST OF SBA COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THEN INITIAL FRONT PRETTY MUCH FIZZLES OUT AND SHOULD NOT BRING RAIN
TO VTA OR LA COUNTY. A POST FRONTAL TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TROF WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BRING A CHC OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AS USUAL THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES. ALL THE ACTION WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT
EXCEPT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH
SLOPES.

ALMOST ALL OF THE COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS SO SNOW
WILL NOT BE A CONCERN...EXCEPT SAT NIGHT WHERE THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET.

RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE NW CORNER OF SLO
COUNTY WHERE THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF RAIN.

THE CLOUDS...THE RAIN... AND THE LOWER HGTS WILL ALL CONSPIRE TO
REALLY DROP TEMPS. FRIDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF COOLING
SATURDAY.

SW FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN A SLIGHT RIDGE
DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY. THE MARINE INVERSION WILL BE WIPED OUT AND
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM EACH DAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN BLO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0900Z

AT THIS TIME THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR MARINE INVERSION.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE WITH VFR CONDS OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBYS NEAR COAST BETWEEN
12-16Z ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WEAK OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS. LOCAL LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LOCAL
MOUNTAIN PASSES...STRONGEST BETWEEN 12Z-20Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z THIS MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

27/240 AM

OUTER WATERS...POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER WE WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA WITH MORE DETAILS BY MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY...WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A GALE WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE INNER WATERS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 281559
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
856 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
COOL TEMPERATURES AND BRING POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED REBUILD AND BRING
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...

NO CHANGES NECESSARY WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING TODAY. VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BEACH IN THE MID 70S.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE LIGHT
RAIN EVENT FRIDAY-SATURDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE...THE FORECAST LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. MAY END UP INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY ON THE
CENTRAL COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...BUT ITS STILL LOOKING LIKE
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

QUITE WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE AREA...PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY TODAY.
A WEAK EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND WILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT BRING
SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST...BUT THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS ONE MORE DAY OF CLEAR SKIES.
OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AND THE EDDY REMAINS THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LA AND VTA COASTS.

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE PRETTY GOOD COASTAL COOLING ON THURSDAY ESP FOR SLO AND WESTERN
SBA COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL EYES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE FIRST REAL RAIN OF THE SEASON
DEVELOPS. A COLD 535DM UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH OREGON AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TROF WILL SWING TOWARDS THE CA COAST. THE SFC FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SLO COUNTY COAST RIGHT AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY. THE MDLS
HAVE BEEN HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND
NOW ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR SLO
COUNTY BUT IF THIS ROUND OF MDLS SOLNS IS CORRECT THE MORNING WILL
BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MDLS BRING
THE SFC FRONT AND RAIN TO THE SLO AND MOST OF SBA COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THEN INITIAL FRONT PRETTY MUCH FIZZLES OUT AND SHOULD NOT BRING RAIN
TO VTA OR LA COUNTY. A POST FRONTAL TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TROF WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BRING A CHC OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AS USUAL THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES. ALL THE ACTION WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT
EXCEPT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH
SLOPES.

ALMOST ALL OF THE COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS SO SNOW
WILL NOT BE A CONCERN...EXCEPT SAT NIGHT WHERE THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET.

RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE NW CORNER OF SLO
COUNTY WHERE THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF RAIN.

THE CLOUDS...THE RAIN... AND THE LOWER HGTS WILL ALL CONSPIRE TO
REALLY DROP TEMPS. FRIDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF COOLING
SATURDAY.

SW FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN A SLIGHT RIDGE
DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY. THE MARINE INVERSION WILL BE WIPED OUT AND
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM EACH DAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN BLO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0900Z

AT THIS TIME THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR MARINE INVERSION.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE WITH VFR CONDS OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBYS NEAR COAST BETWEEN
12-16Z ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WEAK OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS. LOCAL LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LOCAL
MOUNTAIN PASSES...STRONGEST BETWEEN 12Z-20Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z THIS MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

27/240 AM

OUTER WATERS...POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER WE WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA WITH MORE DETAILS BY MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY...WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A GALE WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE INNER WATERS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 281022
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
256 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
COOL TEMPERATURES AND BRING POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED REBUILD AND BRING
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
QUITE WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE AREA...PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY TODAY.
A WEAK EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND WILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT BRING
SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST...BUT THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS ONE MORE DAY OF CLEAR SKIES.
OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AND THE EDDY REMAINS THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LA AND VTA COASTS.

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE PRETTY GOOD COASTAL COOLING ON THURSDAY ESP FOR SLO AND WESTERN
SBA COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL EYES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE FIRST REAL RAIN OF THE SEASON
DEVELOPS. A COLD 535DM UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH OREGON AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TROF WILL SWING TOWARDS THE CA COAST. THE SFC FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SLO COUNTY COAST RIGHT AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY. THE MDLS
HAVE BEEN HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND
NOW ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR SLO
COUNTY BUT IF THIS ROUND OF MDLS SOLNS IS CORRECT THE MORNING WILL
BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MDLS BRING
THE SFC FRONT AND RAIN TO THE SLO AND MOST OF SBA COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THEN INITIAL FRONT PRETTY MUCH FIZZLES OUT AND SHOULD NOT BRING RAIN
TO VTA OR LA COUNTY. A POST FRONTAL TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TROF WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BRING A CHC OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AS USUAL THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES. ALL THE ACTION WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT
EXCEPT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH
SLOPES.

ALMOST ALL OF THE COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS SO SNOW
WILL NOT BE A CONCERN...EXCEPT SAT NIGHT WHERE THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET.

RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE NW CORNER OF SLO
COUNTY WHERE THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF RAIN.

THE CLOUDS...THE RAIN... AND THE LOWER HGTS WILL ALL CONSPIRE TO
REALLY DROP TEMPS. FRIDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF COOLING
SATURDAY.

SW FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN A SLIGHT RIDGE
DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY. THE MARINE INVERSION WILL BE WIPED OUT AND
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM EACH DAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN BLO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0900Z

AT THIS TIME THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR MARINE INVERSION.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE WITH VFR CONDS OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBYS NEAR COAST BETWEEN
12-16Z ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WEAK OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS. LOCAL LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LOCAL
MOUNTAIN PASSES...STRONGEST BETWEEN 12Z-20Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z THIS MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

27/240 AM

OUTER WATERS...POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER WE WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA WITH MORE DETAILS BY MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY...WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A GALE WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE INNER WATERS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...B

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