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000
FXUS66 KLOX 252110
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AMPLE
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A WARMING TREND
AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL EDGE UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MARINE LAYER DEPTH RANGED BETWEEN 3,000 AND 4,000 FEET
ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY. THIS DEEP MARINE LAYER COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ALLOWED CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUSCLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
TREND ACROSS VENTURA COUNTY BUT STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LA BASIN. ALSO...SOME AFTERNOON BUILDUPS OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW AND CLOUD COVERAGE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

MARINE LAYER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO MOST COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE
DISTRICT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN MARINE
LAYER DEPTH EXPECTED TO SHRINK ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
EDGE UPWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN A MORE NOTICEABLE WARMUP ON
THURSDAY AS WARMEST VALLEYS CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
REACHES 90 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THESE WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF
THE WEEK...WITH WARMEST VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS CLIMBING TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S. DURING THIS TIME...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH SHRINK. THE RIDGE AXIS IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
COOLING TREND TO BEGIN.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH...AND THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES BOTH THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON SAT...THEN THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT COOLING...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION... 25/18Z

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 1550 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 4900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 13 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS.  THE MARINE
INTRUSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND WELL INTO
ADJACENT VALLEYS THROUGH MIDDAY.  IT WILL DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.
THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE
TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN
THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE... 25/200 PM

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST.  NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERIODICALLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL BRING MODERATE SURF TO
SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH AT
LEAST TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
DANGEROUS CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION/MARINE...HOXSIE
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 252110
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AMPLE
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A WARMING TREND
AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL EDGE UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MARINE LAYER DEPTH RANGED BETWEEN 3,000 AND 4,000 FEET
ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY. THIS DEEP MARINE LAYER COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ALLOWED CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUSCLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
TREND ACROSS VENTURA COUNTY BUT STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LA BASIN. ALSO...SOME AFTERNOON BUILDUPS OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW AND CLOUD COVERAGE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

MARINE LAYER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO MOST COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE
DISTRICT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN MARINE
LAYER DEPTH EXPECTED TO SHRINK ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
EDGE UPWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN A MORE NOTICEABLE WARMUP ON
THURSDAY AS WARMEST VALLEYS CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
REACHES 90 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THESE WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF
THE WEEK...WITH WARMEST VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS CLIMBING TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S. DURING THIS TIME...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH SHRINK. THE RIDGE AXIS IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
COOLING TREND TO BEGIN.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH...AND THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES BOTH THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON SAT...THEN THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT COOLING...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION... 25/18Z

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 1550 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 4900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 13 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS.  THE MARINE
INTRUSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND WELL INTO
ADJACENT VALLEYS THROUGH MIDDAY.  IT WILL DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.
THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE
TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN
THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE... 25/200 PM

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST.  NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERIODICALLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL BRING MODERATE SURF TO
SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH AT
LEAST TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
DANGEROUS CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION/MARINE...HOXSIE
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 251856
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER...UPDATED
SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1155 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR REMINDER OF TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AMPLE
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A WARMING TREND
AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL EDGE UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...

***UPDATED FOR REMINDER OF TODAY FORECAST***

MADE LATE MORNING UPDATE TO FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY AS SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOWING INCREASED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. LATEST PILOT REPORTS SHOWING CLOUD TOPS UP TO 4000
FEET ACROSS LA BASIN. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY
(WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS) AND TRIMMED BACK TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING
SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS TODAY DUE TO SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE...WITH 12Z VANDENBERG
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH OF AROUND 3200 FEET...AND LATEST ACARS
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH AROUND 3000 FEET ACROSS THE LA BASIN. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ADVANCED INTO SOME OF THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
SAN GABRIELS THIS MORNING...BUT IS STARTING TO RETREAT NOW. MARINE
INVERSION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK SO EXPECTING BURNOFF OF LOW CLOUDSTHIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL INTERACT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE LA BASIN AND CENTRAL COAST. INLAND AREAS MAY SEE
A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SALINAS VALLEY...AS A DECENT
SLY PUSH MAY CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ADD SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND TUE...AND A WEAK
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE WRF
INDICATED MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ALL COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...WITH WOULD SUGGEST NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE APCHG TROUGH...IS FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND EXTENSIVE STRATUS W OF THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CONTD WEAK INVERSION. MAX TEMPS ON
TUE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE OF TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE NIGHT THRU MORNING STRATUS PATTERN TUE
NIGHT/WED. MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS ON WED AS HEIGHTS RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH...AND THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES BOTH THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON SAT...THEN THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT COOLING...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION... 25/18Z

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 1550 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 4900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 13 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS.  THE MARINE
INTRUSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND WELL INTO
ADJACENT VALLEYS THROUGH MIDDAY.  IT WILL DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.
THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE
TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN
THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE... 25/900 AM

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST.  NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERIODICALLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL BRING MODERATE SURF TO
SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
DANGEROUS CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE/HOXSIE
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 251856
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER...UPDATED
SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1155 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR REMINDER OF TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AMPLE
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A WARMING TREND
AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL EDGE UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...

***UPDATED FOR REMINDER OF TODAY FORECAST***

MADE LATE MORNING UPDATE TO FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY AS SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOWING INCREASED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. LATEST PILOT REPORTS SHOWING CLOUD TOPS UP TO 4000
FEET ACROSS LA BASIN. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY
(WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS) AND TRIMMED BACK TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING
SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS TODAY DUE TO SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE...WITH 12Z VANDENBERG
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH OF AROUND 3200 FEET...AND LATEST ACARS
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH AROUND 3000 FEET ACROSS THE LA BASIN. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ADVANCED INTO SOME OF THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
SAN GABRIELS THIS MORNING...BUT IS STARTING TO RETREAT NOW. MARINE
INVERSION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK SO EXPECTING BURNOFF OF LOW CLOUDSTHIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL INTERACT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE LA BASIN AND CENTRAL COAST. INLAND AREAS MAY SEE
A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SALINAS VALLEY...AS A DECENT
SLY PUSH MAY CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ADD SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND TUE...AND A WEAK
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE WRF
INDICATED MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ALL COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...WITH WOULD SUGGEST NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE APCHG TROUGH...IS FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND EXTENSIVE STRATUS W OF THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CONTD WEAK INVERSION. MAX TEMPS ON
TUE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE OF TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE NIGHT THRU MORNING STRATUS PATTERN TUE
NIGHT/WED. MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS ON WED AS HEIGHTS RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH...AND THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES BOTH THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON SAT...THEN THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT COOLING...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION... 25/18Z

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 1550 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 4900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 13 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS.  THE MARINE
INTRUSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND WELL INTO
ADJACENT VALLEYS THROUGH MIDDAY.  IT WILL DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.
THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE
TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN
THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE... 25/900 AM

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST.  NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERIODICALLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL BRING MODERATE SURF TO
SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
DANGEROUS CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE/HOXSIE
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 251856
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER...UPDATED
SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1155 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR REMINDER OF TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AMPLE
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A WARMING TREND
AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL EDGE UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...

***UPDATED FOR REMINDER OF TODAY FORECAST***

MADE LATE MORNING UPDATE TO FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY AS SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOWING INCREASED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. LATEST PILOT REPORTS SHOWING CLOUD TOPS UP TO 4000
FEET ACROSS LA BASIN. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY
(WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS) AND TRIMMED BACK TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING
SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS TODAY DUE TO SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE...WITH 12Z VANDENBERG
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH OF AROUND 3200 FEET...AND LATEST ACARS
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH AROUND 3000 FEET ACROSS THE LA BASIN. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ADVANCED INTO SOME OF THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
SAN GABRIELS THIS MORNING...BUT IS STARTING TO RETREAT NOW. MARINE
INVERSION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK SO EXPECTING BURNOFF OF LOW CLOUDSTHIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL INTERACT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE LA BASIN AND CENTRAL COAST. INLAND AREAS MAY SEE
A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SALINAS VALLEY...AS A DECENT
SLY PUSH MAY CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ADD SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND TUE...AND A WEAK
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE WRF
INDICATED MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ALL COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...WITH WOULD SUGGEST NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE APCHG TROUGH...IS FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND EXTENSIVE STRATUS W OF THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CONTD WEAK INVERSION. MAX TEMPS ON
TUE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE OF TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE NIGHT THRU MORNING STRATUS PATTERN TUE
NIGHT/WED. MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS ON WED AS HEIGHTS RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH...AND THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES BOTH THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON SAT...THEN THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT COOLING...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION... 25/18Z

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 1550 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 4900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 13 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS.  THE MARINE
INTRUSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND WELL INTO
ADJACENT VALLEYS THROUGH MIDDAY.  IT WILL DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.
THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE
TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN
THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE... 25/900 AM

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST.  NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERIODICALLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL BRING MODERATE SURF TO
SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
DANGEROUS CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE/HOXSIE
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 251856
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER...UPDATED
SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1155 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR REMINDER OF TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AMPLE
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A WARMING TREND
AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL EDGE UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...

***UPDATED FOR REMINDER OF TODAY FORECAST***

MADE LATE MORNING UPDATE TO FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY AS SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOWING INCREASED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. LATEST PILOT REPORTS SHOWING CLOUD TOPS UP TO 4000
FEET ACROSS LA BASIN. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY
(WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS) AND TRIMMED BACK TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING
SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS TODAY DUE TO SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE...WITH 12Z VANDENBERG
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH OF AROUND 3200 FEET...AND LATEST ACARS
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH AROUND 3000 FEET ACROSS THE LA BASIN. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ADVANCED INTO SOME OF THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
SAN GABRIELS THIS MORNING...BUT IS STARTING TO RETREAT NOW. MARINE
INVERSION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK SO EXPECTING BURNOFF OF LOW CLOUDSTHIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL INTERACT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE LA BASIN AND CENTRAL COAST. INLAND AREAS MAY SEE
A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SALINAS VALLEY...AS A DECENT
SLY PUSH MAY CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ADD SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND TUE...AND A WEAK
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE WRF
INDICATED MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ALL COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...WITH WOULD SUGGEST NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE APCHG TROUGH...IS FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND EXTENSIVE STRATUS W OF THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CONTD WEAK INVERSION. MAX TEMPS ON
TUE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE OF TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE NIGHT THRU MORNING STRATUS PATTERN TUE
NIGHT/WED. MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS ON WED AS HEIGHTS RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH...AND THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES BOTH THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON SAT...THEN THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT COOLING...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION... 25/18Z

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 1550 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 4900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 13 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS.  THE MARINE
INTRUSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND WELL INTO
ADJACENT VALLEYS THROUGH MIDDAY.  IT WILL DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.
THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE
TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN
THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE... 25/900 AM

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST.  NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERIODICALLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL BRING MODERATE SURF TO
SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
DANGEROUS CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE/HOXSIE
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 251813
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AMPLE
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A WARMING TREND
AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL EDGE UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE...WITH 12Z VANDENBERG
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH OF AROUND 3200 FEET...AND LATEST ACARS
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH AROUND 3000 FEET ACROSS THE LA BASIN. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ADVANCED INTO SOME OF THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
SAN GABRIELS THIS MORNING...BUT IS STARTING TO RETREAT NOW. MARINE
INVERSION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK SO EXPECTING BURNOFF OF LOW CLOUDSTHIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL INTERACT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE LA BASIN AND CENTRAL COAST. INLAND AREAS MAY SEE
A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SALINAS VALLEY...AS A DECENT
SLY PUSH MAY CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ADD SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND TUE...AND A WEAK
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE WRF
INDICATED MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ALL COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...WITH WOULD SUGGEST NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE APCHG TROUGH...IS FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND EXTENSIVE STRATUS W OF THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CONTD WEAK INVERSION. MAX TEMPS ON
TUE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE OF TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE NIGHT THRU MORNING STRATUS PATTERN TUE
NIGHT/WED. MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS ON WED AS HEIGHTS RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH...AND THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES BOTH THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON SAT...THEN THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT COOLING...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION... 25/18Z

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 1550 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 4900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 13 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS.  THE MARINE
INTRUSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND WELL INTO
ADJACENT VALLEYS THROUGH MIDDAY.  IT WILL DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.
THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE
TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN
THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE... 25/900 AM

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST.  NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERIODICALLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL BRING MODERATE SURF TO
SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
DANGEROUS CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE/HOXSIE
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 251813
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AMPLE
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A WARMING TREND
AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL EDGE UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE...WITH 12Z VANDENBERG
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH OF AROUND 3200 FEET...AND LATEST ACARS
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH AROUND 3000 FEET ACROSS THE LA BASIN. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ADVANCED INTO SOME OF THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
SAN GABRIELS THIS MORNING...BUT IS STARTING TO RETREAT NOW. MARINE
INVERSION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK SO EXPECTING BURNOFF OF LOW CLOUDSTHIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL INTERACT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE LA BASIN AND CENTRAL COAST. INLAND AREAS MAY SEE
A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SALINAS VALLEY...AS A DECENT
SLY PUSH MAY CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ADD SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND TUE...AND A WEAK
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE WRF
INDICATED MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ALL COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...WITH WOULD SUGGEST NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE APCHG TROUGH...IS FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND EXTENSIVE STRATUS W OF THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CONTD WEAK INVERSION. MAX TEMPS ON
TUE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE OF TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE NIGHT THRU MORNING STRATUS PATTERN TUE
NIGHT/WED. MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS ON WED AS HEIGHTS RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH...AND THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES BOTH THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON SAT...THEN THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT COOLING...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION... 25/18Z

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 1550 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 4900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 13 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS.  THE MARINE
INTRUSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND WELL INTO
ADJACENT VALLEYS THROUGH MIDDAY.  IT WILL DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.
THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE
TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN
THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE... 25/900 AM

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST.  NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERIODICALLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL BRING MODERATE SURF TO
SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
DANGEROUS CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE/HOXSIE
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 251813
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AMPLE
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A WARMING TREND
AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL EDGE UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE...WITH 12Z VANDENBERG
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH OF AROUND 3200 FEET...AND LATEST ACARS
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH AROUND 3000 FEET ACROSS THE LA BASIN. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ADVANCED INTO SOME OF THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
SAN GABRIELS THIS MORNING...BUT IS STARTING TO RETREAT NOW. MARINE
INVERSION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK SO EXPECTING BURNOFF OF LOW CLOUDSTHIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL INTERACT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE LA BASIN AND CENTRAL COAST. INLAND AREAS MAY SEE
A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SALINAS VALLEY...AS A DECENT
SLY PUSH MAY CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ADD SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND TUE...AND A WEAK
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE WRF
INDICATED MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ALL COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...WITH WOULD SUGGEST NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE APCHG TROUGH...IS FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND EXTENSIVE STRATUS W OF THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CONTD WEAK INVERSION. MAX TEMPS ON
TUE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE OF TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE NIGHT THRU MORNING STRATUS PATTERN TUE
NIGHT/WED. MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS ON WED AS HEIGHTS RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH...AND THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES BOTH THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON SAT...THEN THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT COOLING...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION... 25/18Z

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 1550 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 4900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 13 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS.  THE MARINE
INTRUSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND WELL INTO
ADJACENT VALLEYS THROUGH MIDDAY.  IT WILL DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.
THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE
TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN
THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE... 25/900 AM

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST.  NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERIODICALLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL BRING MODERATE SURF TO
SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
DANGEROUS CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE/HOXSIE
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 251813
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AMPLE
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A WARMING TREND
AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL EDGE UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE...WITH 12Z VANDENBERG
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH OF AROUND 3200 FEET...AND LATEST ACARS
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH AROUND 3000 FEET ACROSS THE LA BASIN. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ADVANCED INTO SOME OF THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
SAN GABRIELS THIS MORNING...BUT IS STARTING TO RETREAT NOW. MARINE
INVERSION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK SO EXPECTING BURNOFF OF LOW CLOUDSTHIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL INTERACT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE LA BASIN AND CENTRAL COAST. INLAND AREAS MAY SEE
A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SALINAS VALLEY...AS A DECENT
SLY PUSH MAY CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ADD SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND TUE...AND A WEAK
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE WRF
INDICATED MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ALL COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...WITH WOULD SUGGEST NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE APCHG TROUGH...IS FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND EXTENSIVE STRATUS W OF THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CONTD WEAK INVERSION. MAX TEMPS ON
TUE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE OF TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE NIGHT THRU MORNING STRATUS PATTERN TUE
NIGHT/WED. MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS ON WED AS HEIGHTS RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH...AND THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES BOTH THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON SAT...THEN THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT COOLING...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION... 25/18Z

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 1550 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 4900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 13 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS.  THE MARINE
INTRUSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND WELL INTO
ADJACENT VALLEYS THROUGH MIDDAY.  IT WILL DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH TO JUST OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.
THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THE MARINE INTRUSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE
TAF TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.  THE INTRUSION WILL RETURN
THIS EVENING AND WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE... 25/900 AM

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST.  NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERIODICALLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL BRING MODERATE SURF TO
SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
DANGEROUS CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE/HOXSIE
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 251634
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AMPLE
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A WARMING TREND
AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL EDGE UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE...WITH 12Z VANDENBERG
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH OF AROUND 3200 FEET...AND LATEST ACARS
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH AROUND 3000 FEET ACROSS THE LA BASIN. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ADVANCED INTO SOME OF THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
SAN GABRIELS THIS MORNING...BUT IS STARTING TO RETREAT NOW. MARINE
INVERSION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK SO EXPECTING BURNOFF OF LOW CLOUDSTHIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL INTERACT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE LA BASIN AND CENTRAL COAST. INLAND AREAS MAY SEE
A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SALINAS VALLEY...AS A DECENT
SLY PUSH MAY CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ADD SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND TUE...AND A WEAK
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE WRF
INDICATED MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ALL COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...WITH WOULD SUGGEST NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE APCHG TROUGH...IS FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND EXTENSIVE STRATUS W OF THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CONTD WEAK INVERSION. MAX TEMPS ON
TUE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE OF TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE NIGHT THRU MORNING STRATUS PATTERN TUE
NIGHT/WED. MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS ON WED AS HEIGHTS RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH...AND THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES BOTH THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON SAT...THEN THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT COOLING...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1200Z

AT 0804Z THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS 1200 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 4200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST (AND
KPRB) TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIME OF BREAK UP OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FORECAST COULD BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 2 HOURS. GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS ARRIVING TO MOST COASTAL AND VLY SITES THIS
EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF VFR TRANSITION COULD BE AS SOON AS
19Z. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE BACK AS EARLY AS 03Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC
OF NO LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. IF LOW CLOUDS DO ARRIVE THEY COULD
ARRIVE ANYTIME WITHIN 2 HOURS OF FCST.

&&

.MARINE...

25/300 AM

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST.  NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERIODICALLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL BRING MODERATE SURF TO
SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
DANGEROUS CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE/HOXSIE
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 251634
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AMPLE
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A WARMING TREND
AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL EDGE UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE...WITH 12Z VANDENBERG
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH OF AROUND 3200 FEET...AND LATEST ACARS
SOUNDING SHOWING DEPTH AROUND 3000 FEET ACROSS THE LA BASIN. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ADVANCED INTO SOME OF THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
SAN GABRIELS THIS MORNING...BUT IS STARTING TO RETREAT NOW. MARINE
INVERSION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK SO EXPECTING BURNOFF OF LOW CLOUDSTHIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL INTERACT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE LA BASIN AND CENTRAL COAST. INLAND AREAS MAY SEE
A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SALINAS VALLEY...AS A DECENT
SLY PUSH MAY CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ADD SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND TUE...AND A WEAK
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE WRF
INDICATED MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ALL COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...WITH WOULD SUGGEST NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE APCHG TROUGH...IS FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND EXTENSIVE STRATUS W OF THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CONTD WEAK INVERSION. MAX TEMPS ON
TUE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE OF TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE NIGHT THRU MORNING STRATUS PATTERN TUE
NIGHT/WED. MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS ON WED AS HEIGHTS RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH...AND THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES BOTH THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON SAT...THEN THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT COOLING...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1200Z

AT 0804Z THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS 1200 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 4200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST (AND
KPRB) TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIME OF BREAK UP OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FORECAST COULD BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 2 HOURS. GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS ARRIVING TO MOST COASTAL AND VLY SITES THIS
EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF VFR TRANSITION COULD BE AS SOON AS
19Z. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE BACK AS EARLY AS 03Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC
OF NO LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. IF LOW CLOUDS DO ARRIVE THEY COULD
ARRIVE ANYTIME WITHIN 2 HOURS OF FCST.

&&

.MARINE...

25/300 AM

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST.  NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERIODICALLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL BRING MODERATE SURF TO
SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
DANGEROUS CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE/HOXSIE
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 251252
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN NEAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...WIDESPREAD STRATUS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD
INTO THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO COUNTY. S OF PT CONCEPTION...THE
STRATUS FIELD REMAINED VERY DISORGANIZED...WITH JUST PATCHY LOW
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE RATHER HIGH WATER
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WAS KEEPING THE INVERSION QUITE WEAK. CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS...BUT...OVERALL A BIT LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN EXPECTED. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE MORNING. THANKS TO SMALL HEIGHT/THICKNESS
RISES...MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE
SALINAS VALLEY...AS A DECENT SLY PUSH MAY CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND TUE...AND A WEAK
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE WRF
INDICATED MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ALL COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...WITH WOULD SUGGEST NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE APCHG TROUGH...IS FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND EXTENSIVE STRATUS W OF THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CONTD WEAK INVERSION. MAX TEMPS ON
TUE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE OF TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE NIGHT THRU MORNING STRATUS PATTERN TUE
NIGHT/WED. MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS ON WED AS HEIGHTS RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH...AND THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES BOTH THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON SAT...THEN THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT COOLING...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1200Z

AT 0804Z THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS 1200 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 4200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST (AND
KPRB) TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIME OF BREAK UP OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FORECAST COULD BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 2 HOURS. GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS ARRIVING TO MOST COASTAL AND VLY SITES THIS
EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF VFR TRANSITION COULD BE AS SOON AS
19Z. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE BACK AS EARLY AS 03Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC
OF NO LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. IF LOW CLOUDS DO ARRIVE THEY COULD
ARRIVE ANYTIME WITHIN 2 HOURS OF FCST.

&&

.MARINE...

25/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MARINE FORECAST WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.EXCEPT FOR A FEW 25 KT WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 251252
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN NEAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...WIDESPREAD STRATUS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD
INTO THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO COUNTY. S OF PT CONCEPTION...THE
STRATUS FIELD REMAINED VERY DISORGANIZED...WITH JUST PATCHY LOW
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE RATHER HIGH WATER
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WAS KEEPING THE INVERSION QUITE WEAK. CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS...BUT...OVERALL A BIT LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN EXPECTED. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE MORNING. THANKS TO SMALL HEIGHT/THICKNESS
RISES...MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE
SALINAS VALLEY...AS A DECENT SLY PUSH MAY CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND TUE...AND A WEAK
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE WRF
INDICATED MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ALL COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...WITH WOULD SUGGEST NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE APCHG TROUGH...IS FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND EXTENSIVE STRATUS W OF THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CONTD WEAK INVERSION. MAX TEMPS ON
TUE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE OF TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE NIGHT THRU MORNING STRATUS PATTERN TUE
NIGHT/WED. MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS ON WED AS HEIGHTS RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH...AND THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES BOTH THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON SAT...THEN THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT COOLING...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1200Z

AT 0804Z THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS 1200 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 4200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST (AND
KPRB) TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIME OF BREAK UP OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FORECAST COULD BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 2 HOURS. GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS ARRIVING TO MOST COASTAL AND VLY SITES THIS
EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF VFR TRANSITION COULD BE AS SOON AS
19Z. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE BACK AS EARLY AS 03Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC
OF NO LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. IF LOW CLOUDS DO ARRIVE THEY COULD
ARRIVE ANYTIME WITHIN 2 HOURS OF FCST.

&&

.MARINE...

25/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MARINE FORECAST WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.EXCEPT FOR A FEW 25 KT WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 251244
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
338 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
STATES WILL MAINTAIN NEAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...WIDESPREAD STRATUS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD
INTO THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO COUNTY. S OF PT CONCEPTION...THE
STRATUS FIELD REMAINED VERY DISORGANIZED...WITH JUST PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND THE
SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE RATHER HIGH WATER
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE KEEPING THE INVERSION QUITE WEAK. CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE MORNING. THANKS TO SMALL
HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES...MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE ACROSS THE SALINAS VALLEY...AS A DECENT SLY PUSH MAY CAUSE A BIT
OF COOLING.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND TUE...AND A WEAK
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE WRF
INDICATES MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ALL COASTAL
AND VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...AND WOULD SUGGEST NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE APCHG TROUGH...IS FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND EXTENSIVE STRATUS W OF THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CONTD WEAK INVERSION. MAX TEMPS ON
TUE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE OF TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE NIGHT THRU MORNING STRATUS PATTERN TUE
NIGHT/WED. MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES ON WED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS AS HEIGHTS RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH...AND THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES BOTH THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON SAT...THEN THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT COOLING...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

25/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MARINE FORECAST WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.EXCEPT FOR A FEW 25 KT WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 251203
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 338 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN NEAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...WIDESPREAD STRATUS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD
INTO THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO COUNTY. S OF PT CONCEPTION...THE
STRATUS FIELD REMAINED VERY DISORGANIZED...WITH JUST PATCHY LOW
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE RATHER HIGH WATER
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WAS KEEPING THE INVERSION QUITE WEAK. CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS...BUT...OVERALL A BIT LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN EXPECTED. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE MORNING. THANKS TO SMALL HEIGHT/THICKNESS
RISES...MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE
SALINAS VALLEY...AS A DECENT SLY PUSH MAY CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND TUE...AND A WEAK
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE WRF
INDICATED MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ALL COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...WITH WOULD SUGGEST NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE APCHG TROUGH...IS FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND EXTENSIVE STRATUS W OF THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CONTD WEAK INVERSION. MAX TEMPS ON
TUE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE OF TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE NIGHT THRU MORNING STRATUS PATTERN TUE
NIGHT/WED. MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS ON WED AS HEIGHTS RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH...AND THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES BOTH THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON SAT...THEN THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT COOLING...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1200Z

AT 0804Z THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS 1200 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 4200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST (AND
KPRB) TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIME OF BREAK UP OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FORECAST COULD BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 2 HOURS. GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS ARRIVING TO MOST COASTAL AND VLY SITES THIS
EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF VFR TRANSITION COULD BE AS SOON AS
19Z. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE BACK AS EARLY AS 03Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC
OF NO LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. IF LOW CLOUDS DO ARRIVE THEY COULD
ARRIVE ANYTIME WITHIN 2 HOURS OF FCST.

&&

.MARINE...

25/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MARINE FORECAST WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.EXCEPT FOR A FEW 25 KT WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 251203
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 338 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN NEAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...WIDESPREAD STRATUS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD
INTO THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO COUNTY. S OF PT CONCEPTION...THE
STRATUS FIELD REMAINED VERY DISORGANIZED...WITH JUST PATCHY LOW
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE RATHER HIGH WATER
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WAS KEEPING THE INVERSION QUITE WEAK. CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS...BUT...OVERALL A BIT LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN EXPECTED. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE MORNING. THANKS TO SMALL HEIGHT/THICKNESS
RISES...MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE
SALINAS VALLEY...AS A DECENT SLY PUSH MAY CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND TUE...AND A WEAK
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE WRF
INDICATED MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ALL COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...WITH WOULD SUGGEST NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE APCHG TROUGH...IS FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND EXTENSIVE STRATUS W OF THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CONTD WEAK INVERSION. MAX TEMPS ON
TUE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE OF TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE NIGHT THRU MORNING STRATUS PATTERN TUE
NIGHT/WED. MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS ON WED AS HEIGHTS RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH...AND THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES BOTH THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON SAT...THEN THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT COOLING...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1200Z

AT 0804Z THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS 1200 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 4200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST (AND
KPRB) TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIME OF BREAK UP OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FORECAST COULD BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 2 HOURS. GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS ARRIVING TO MOST COASTAL AND VLY SITES THIS
EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF VFR TRANSITION COULD BE AS SOON AS
19Z. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE BACK AS EARLY AS 03Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC
OF NO LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. IF LOW CLOUDS DO ARRIVE THEY COULD
ARRIVE ANYTIME WITHIN 2 HOURS OF FCST.

&&

.MARINE...

25/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MARINE FORECAST WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.EXCEPT FOR A FEW 25 KT WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 251102
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 338 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN NEAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...WIDESPREAD STRATUS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD
INTO THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO COUNTY. S OF PT CONCEPTION...THE
STRATUS FIELD REMAINED VERY DISORGANIZED...WITH JUST PATCHY LOW
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE RATHER HIGH WATER
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WAS KEEPING THE INVERSION QUITE WEAK. CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS...BUT...OVERALL A BIT LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN EXPECTED. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE MORNING. THANKS TO SMALL HEIGHT/THICKNESS
RISES...MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE
SALINAS VALLEY...AS A DECENT SLY PUSH MAY CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND TUE...AND A WEAK
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE WRF
INDICATED MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ALL COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...WITH WOULD SUGGEST NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE APCHG TROUGH...IS FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND EXTENSIVE STRATUS W OF THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CONTD WEAK INVERSION. MAX TEMPS ON
TUE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE OF TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE NIGHT THRU MORNING STRATUS PATTERN TUE
NIGHT/WED. MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS ON WED AS HEIGHTS RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH...AND THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES BOTH THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON SAT...THEN THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT COOLING...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

25/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MARINE FORECAST WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.EXCEPT FOR A FEW 25 KT WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 251102
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 338 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN NEAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...WIDESPREAD STRATUS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD
INTO THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO COUNTY. S OF PT CONCEPTION...THE
STRATUS FIELD REMAINED VERY DISORGANIZED...WITH JUST PATCHY LOW
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE RATHER HIGH WATER
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WAS KEEPING THE INVERSION QUITE WEAK. CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS...BUT...OVERALL A BIT LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN EXPECTED. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE MORNING. THANKS TO SMALL HEIGHT/THICKNESS
RISES...MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE
SALINAS VALLEY...AS A DECENT SLY PUSH MAY CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND TUE...AND A WEAK
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE WRF
INDICATED MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ALL COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...WITH WOULD SUGGEST NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE APCHG TROUGH...IS FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND EXTENSIVE STRATUS W OF THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CONTD WEAK INVERSION. MAX TEMPS ON
TUE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE OF TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE NIGHT THRU MORNING STRATUS PATTERN TUE
NIGHT/WED. MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS ON WED AS HEIGHTS RISE.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH...AND THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES BOTH THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE E OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON SAT...THEN THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT COOLING...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

25/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MARINE FORECAST WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.EXCEPT FOR A FEW 25 KT WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 250618 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN NEAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING A SHARP WARMING TREND AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL MODERATE UP A BIT.

&&

.UPDATE...

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS INTO LATE WEEK. A WEAK
NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...ALLOWING FOR LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.

A DEEP MARINE LAYER IS IN PLACE ON THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS AT
KLAX. KLAX AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 2700
FEET THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS BECOMING SHALLOWER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THUS...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS MUCH SHALLOWER NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...PROBABLY CLOSER TO 2000 FEET. STRATUS IS ALREADY
SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT AS THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AN EDDY
CIRCULATION WILL REGENERATE LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN AGAIN.

THE CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS AGREEABLE FOR TEMPERATURES AND STRATUS
COVERAGE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATE STRATUS SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE IN THE
BIG PICTURE...BUT THERE WILL BE RANDOM UNEXPECTED VARIATIONS WHICH
WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES PLUS OR MINUS A FEW DEGREES. THE ONLY
CHANGE WORTH NOTING IS FOR SOME EXTRA HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PATIENTLY WAITING TO THE WEST
SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SHIFT OVER CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...THEN ENVELOPE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES GOING 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE COAST BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...WHICH COULD BE MORE STUBBORN AND SOLID THAN WHAT WE
ARE SEEING NOW THANKS TO A LIKELY STRONG INVERSION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE COASTAL SECTION MOSTLY FREE FROM THE WARMING TREND...AND
MODERATE SOME OF THE WARMING OVER THE COASTAL VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0600Z.

AT 0600Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1200 FT DEEP.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH MOSTLY LOW MVFR CIGS TO AFFECT
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OVERNIGHT/MON MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME
LOCAL IFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH DAYBREAK. AT THIS
POINT...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN NEAR THE COAST.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 11Z. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE IFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SKIES WILL NOT CLEAR AT ALL
MON AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE CIGS WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 09Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
COULD LINGER UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY 9 AM PDT MONDAY AT THE LATEST...BUT THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/KITTELL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 250618 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN NEAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING A SHARP WARMING TREND AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL MODERATE UP A BIT.

&&

.UPDATE...

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS INTO LATE WEEK. A WEAK
NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...ALLOWING FOR LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.

A DEEP MARINE LAYER IS IN PLACE ON THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS AT
KLAX. KLAX AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 2700
FEET THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS BECOMING SHALLOWER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THUS...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS MUCH SHALLOWER NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...PROBABLY CLOSER TO 2000 FEET. STRATUS IS ALREADY
SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT AS THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AN EDDY
CIRCULATION WILL REGENERATE LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN AGAIN.

THE CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS AGREEABLE FOR TEMPERATURES AND STRATUS
COVERAGE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATE STRATUS SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE IN THE
BIG PICTURE...BUT THERE WILL BE RANDOM UNEXPECTED VARIATIONS WHICH
WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES PLUS OR MINUS A FEW DEGREES. THE ONLY
CHANGE WORTH NOTING IS FOR SOME EXTRA HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PATIENTLY WAITING TO THE WEST
SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SHIFT OVER CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...THEN ENVELOPE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES GOING 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE COAST BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...WHICH COULD BE MORE STUBBORN AND SOLID THAN WHAT WE
ARE SEEING NOW THANKS TO A LIKELY STRONG INVERSION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE COASTAL SECTION MOSTLY FREE FROM THE WARMING TREND...AND
MODERATE SOME OF THE WARMING OVER THE COASTAL VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0600Z.

AT 0600Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1200 FT DEEP.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH MOSTLY LOW MVFR CIGS TO AFFECT
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OVERNIGHT/MON MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME
LOCAL IFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH DAYBREAK. AT THIS
POINT...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN NEAR THE COAST.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 11Z. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE IFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SKIES WILL NOT CLEAR AT ALL
MON AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE CIGS WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 09Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
COULD LINGER UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY 9 AM PDT MONDAY AT THE LATEST...BUT THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/KITTELL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 250618 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN NEAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING A SHARP WARMING TREND AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL MODERATE UP A BIT.

&&

.UPDATE...

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS INTO LATE WEEK. A WEAK
NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...ALLOWING FOR LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.

A DEEP MARINE LAYER IS IN PLACE ON THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS AT
KLAX. KLAX AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 2700
FEET THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS BECOMING SHALLOWER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THUS...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS MUCH SHALLOWER NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...PROBABLY CLOSER TO 2000 FEET. STRATUS IS ALREADY
SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT AS THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AN EDDY
CIRCULATION WILL REGENERATE LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN AGAIN.

THE CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS AGREEABLE FOR TEMPERATURES AND STRATUS
COVERAGE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATE STRATUS SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE IN THE
BIG PICTURE...BUT THERE WILL BE RANDOM UNEXPECTED VARIATIONS WHICH
WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES PLUS OR MINUS A FEW DEGREES. THE ONLY
CHANGE WORTH NOTING IS FOR SOME EXTRA HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PATIENTLY WAITING TO THE WEST
SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SHIFT OVER CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...THEN ENVELOPE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES GOING 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE COAST BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...WHICH COULD BE MORE STUBBORN AND SOLID THAN WHAT WE
ARE SEEING NOW THANKS TO A LIKELY STRONG INVERSION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE COASTAL SECTION MOSTLY FREE FROM THE WARMING TREND...AND
MODERATE SOME OF THE WARMING OVER THE COASTAL VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0600Z.

AT 0600Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1200 FT DEEP.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH MOSTLY LOW MVFR CIGS TO AFFECT
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OVERNIGHT/MON MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME
LOCAL IFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH DAYBREAK. AT THIS
POINT...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN NEAR THE COAST.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 11Z. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE IFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SKIES WILL NOT CLEAR AT ALL
MON AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE CIGS WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 09Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
COULD LINGER UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY 9 AM PDT MONDAY AT THE LATEST...BUT THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/KITTELL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 250618 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN NEAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING A SHARP WARMING TREND AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL MODERATE UP A BIT.

&&

.UPDATE...

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS INTO LATE WEEK. A WEAK
NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...ALLOWING FOR LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.

A DEEP MARINE LAYER IS IN PLACE ON THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS AT
KLAX. KLAX AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 2700
FEET THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS BECOMING SHALLOWER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THUS...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS MUCH SHALLOWER NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...PROBABLY CLOSER TO 2000 FEET. STRATUS IS ALREADY
SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT AS THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AN EDDY
CIRCULATION WILL REGENERATE LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN AGAIN.

THE CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS AGREEABLE FOR TEMPERATURES AND STRATUS
COVERAGE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATE STRATUS SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE IN THE
BIG PICTURE...BUT THERE WILL BE RANDOM UNEXPECTED VARIATIONS WHICH
WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES PLUS OR MINUS A FEW DEGREES. THE ONLY
CHANGE WORTH NOTING IS FOR SOME EXTRA HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PATIENTLY WAITING TO THE WEST
SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SHIFT OVER CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...THEN ENVELOPE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES GOING 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE COAST BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...WHICH COULD BE MORE STUBBORN AND SOLID THAN WHAT WE
ARE SEEING NOW THANKS TO A LIKELY STRONG INVERSION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE COASTAL SECTION MOSTLY FREE FROM THE WARMING TREND...AND
MODERATE SOME OF THE WARMING OVER THE COASTAL VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0600Z.

AT 0600Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1200 FT DEEP.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH MOSTLY LOW MVFR CIGS TO AFFECT
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OVERNIGHT/MON MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME
LOCAL IFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH DAYBREAK. AT THIS
POINT...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN NEAR THE COAST.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 11Z. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE IFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SKIES WILL NOT CLEAR AT ALL
MON AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE CIGS WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 09Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
COULD LINGER UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY 9 AM PDT MONDAY AT THE LATEST...BUT THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/KITTELL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 250428 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
913 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN NEAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING A SHARP WARMING TREND AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL MODERATE UP A BIT.

&&

.UPDATE...

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS INTO LATE WEEK. A WEAK
NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...ALLOWING FOR LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.

A DEEP MARINE LAYER IS IN PLACE ON THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS AT
KLAX. KLAX AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 2700
FEET THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS BECOMING SHALLOWER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THUS...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS MUCH SHALLOWER NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...PROBABLY CLOSER TO 2000 FEET. STRATUS IS ALREADY
SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT AS THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AN EDDY
CIRCULATION WILL REGENERATE LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN AGAIN.

THE CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS AGREEABLE FOR TEMPERATURES AND STRATUS
COVERAGE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATE STRATUS SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE IN THE
BIG PICTURE...BUT THERE WILL BE RANDOM UNEXPECTED VARIATIONS WHICH
WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES PLUS OR MINUS A FEW DEGREES. THE ONLY
CHANGE WORTH NOTING IS FOR SOME EXTRA HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PATIENTLY WAITING TO THE WEST
SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SHIFT OVER CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...THEN ENVELOPE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES GOING 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE COAST BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...WHICH COULD BE MORE STUBBORN AND SOLID THAN WHAT WE
ARE SEEING NOW THANKS TO A LIKELY STRONG INVERSION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE COASTAL SECTION MOSTLY FREE FROM THE WARMING TREND...AND
MODERATE SOME OF THE WARMING OVER THE COASTAL VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0000Z.

AT 0000Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 3200 FT DEEP.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 5900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 11
DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY TERMINALS AND
TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
TIMING COULD BE UP TO TWO HOURS EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MAINLY BETWEEN
08Z AND 16Z..

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS 17Z. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS GREATER THAN 10Z BETWEEN 13Z AND
16Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
COULD LINGER UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY 9 AM PDT MONDAY AT THE LATEST...BUT THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/KITTELL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 250428 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
913 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN NEAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING A SHARP WARMING TREND AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL MODERATE UP A BIT.

&&

.UPDATE...

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS INTO LATE WEEK. A WEAK
NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...ALLOWING FOR LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.

A DEEP MARINE LAYER IS IN PLACE ON THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS AT
KLAX. KLAX AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 2700
FEET THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS BECOMING SHALLOWER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THUS...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS MUCH SHALLOWER NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...PROBABLY CLOSER TO 2000 FEET. STRATUS IS ALREADY
SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT AS THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AN EDDY
CIRCULATION WILL REGENERATE LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN AGAIN.

THE CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS AGREEABLE FOR TEMPERATURES AND STRATUS
COVERAGE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATE STRATUS SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE IN THE
BIG PICTURE...BUT THERE WILL BE RANDOM UNEXPECTED VARIATIONS WHICH
WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES PLUS OR MINUS A FEW DEGREES. THE ONLY
CHANGE WORTH NOTING IS FOR SOME EXTRA HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PATIENTLY WAITING TO THE WEST
SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SHIFT OVER CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...THEN ENVELOPE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES GOING 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE COAST BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...WHICH COULD BE MORE STUBBORN AND SOLID THAN WHAT WE
ARE SEEING NOW THANKS TO A LIKELY STRONG INVERSION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE COASTAL SECTION MOSTLY FREE FROM THE WARMING TREND...AND
MODERATE SOME OF THE WARMING OVER THE COASTAL VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0000Z.

AT 0000Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 3200 FT DEEP.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 5900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 11
DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY TERMINALS AND
TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
TIMING COULD BE UP TO TWO HOURS EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MAINLY BETWEEN
08Z AND 16Z..

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS 17Z. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS GREATER THAN 10Z BETWEEN 13Z AND
16Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
COULD LINGER UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY 9 AM PDT MONDAY AT THE LATEST...BUT THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/KITTELL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 250414
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
913 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN NEAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING A SHARP WARMING TREND AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL MODERATE UP A BIT.

&&

.UPDATE...

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS INTO LATE WEEK. A WEAK
NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...ALLOWING FOR LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.

A DEEP MARINE LAYER IS IN PLACE ON THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS AT
KLAX. KLAX AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 2700
FEET THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS BECOMING SHALLOWER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THUS...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS MUCH SHALLOWER NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...PROBABLY CLOSER TO 2000 FEET. STRATUS IS ALREADY
SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT AS THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AN EDDY
CIRCULATION WILL REGENERATE LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN AGAIN.

THE CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS AGREEABLE FOR TEMPERATURES AND STRATUS
COVERAGE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATE STRATUS SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE IN THE
BIG PICTURE...BUT THERE WILL BE RANDOM UNEXPECTED VARIATIONS WHICH
WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES PLUS OR MINUS A FEW DEGREES. THE ONLY
CHANGE WORTH NOTING IS FOR SOME EXTRA HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PATIENTLY WAITING TO THE WEST
SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SHIFT OVER CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...THEN ENVELOPE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES GOING 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE COAST BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...WHICH COULD BE MORE STUBBORN AND SOLID THAN WHAT WE
ARE SEEING NOW THANKS TO A LIKELY STRONG INVERSION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE COASTAL SECTION MOSTLY FREE FROM THE WARMING TREND...AND
MODERATE SOME OF THE WARMING OVER THE COASTAL VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0000Z.

AT 0000Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 3200 FT DEEP.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 5900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 11
DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY TERMINALS AND
TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
TIMING COULD BE UP TO TWO HOURS EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MAINLY BETWEEN
08Z AND 16Z..

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS 17Z. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS GREATER THAN 10Z BETWEEN 13Z AND
16Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
COULD LINGER UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY 9 AM PDT MONDAY AT THE LATEST...BUT THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 250414
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
913 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN NEAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING A SHARP WARMING TREND AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL MODERATE UP A BIT.

&&

.UPDATE...

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS INTO LATE WEEK. A WEAK
NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...ALLOWING FOR LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.

A DEEP MARINE LAYER IS IN PLACE ON THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS AT
KLAX. KLAX AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 2700
FEET THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS BECOMING SHALLOWER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THUS...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS MUCH SHALLOWER NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...PROBABLY CLOSER TO 2000 FEET. STRATUS IS ALREADY
SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT AS THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AN EDDY
CIRCULATION WILL REGENERATE LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN AGAIN.

THE CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS AGREEABLE FOR TEMPERATURES AND STRATUS
COVERAGE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATE STRATUS SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE IN THE
BIG PICTURE...BUT THERE WILL BE RANDOM UNEXPECTED VARIATIONS WHICH
WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES PLUS OR MINUS A FEW DEGREES. THE ONLY
CHANGE WORTH NOTING IS FOR SOME EXTRA HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PATIENTLY WAITING TO THE WEST
SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SHIFT OVER CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...THEN ENVELOPE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES GOING 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE COAST BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...WHICH COULD BE MORE STUBBORN AND SOLID THAN WHAT WE
ARE SEEING NOW THANKS TO A LIKELY STRONG INVERSION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE COASTAL SECTION MOSTLY FREE FROM THE WARMING TREND...AND
MODERATE SOME OF THE WARMING OVER THE COASTAL VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0000Z.

AT 0000Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 3200 FT DEEP.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 5900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 11
DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY TERMINALS AND
TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
TIMING COULD BE UP TO TWO HOURS EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MAINLY BETWEEN
08Z AND 16Z..

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS 17Z. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS GREATER THAN 10Z BETWEEN 13Z AND
16Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
COULD LINGER UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY 9 AM PDT MONDAY AT THE LATEST...BUT THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 250414
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
913 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN NEAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING A SHARP WARMING TREND AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL MODERATE UP A BIT.

&&

.UPDATE...

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS INTO LATE WEEK. A WEAK
NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...ALLOWING FOR LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.

A DEEP MARINE LAYER IS IN PLACE ON THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS AT
KLAX. KLAX AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 2700
FEET THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS BECOMING SHALLOWER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THUS...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS MUCH SHALLOWER NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...PROBABLY CLOSER TO 2000 FEET. STRATUS IS ALREADY
SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT AS THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AN EDDY
CIRCULATION WILL REGENERATE LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN AGAIN.

THE CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS AGREEABLE FOR TEMPERATURES AND STRATUS
COVERAGE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATE STRATUS SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE IN THE
BIG PICTURE...BUT THERE WILL BE RANDOM UNEXPECTED VARIATIONS WHICH
WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES PLUS OR MINUS A FEW DEGREES. THE ONLY
CHANGE WORTH NOTING IS FOR SOME EXTRA HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PATIENTLY WAITING TO THE WEST
SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SHIFT OVER CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...THEN ENVELOPE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES GOING 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE COAST BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...WHICH COULD BE MORE STUBBORN AND SOLID THAN WHAT WE
ARE SEEING NOW THANKS TO A LIKELY STRONG INVERSION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE COASTAL SECTION MOSTLY FREE FROM THE WARMING TREND...AND
MODERATE SOME OF THE WARMING OVER THE COASTAL VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0000Z.

AT 0000Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 3200 FT DEEP.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 5900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 11
DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY TERMINALS AND
TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
TIMING COULD BE UP TO TWO HOURS EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MAINLY BETWEEN
08Z AND 16Z..

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS 17Z. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS GREATER THAN 10Z BETWEEN 13Z AND
16Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
COULD LINGER UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY 9 AM PDT MONDAY AT THE LATEST...BUT THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 250005 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
505 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS... A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A
SHARP WARMING TREND AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...WHICH WILL MODERATE THE
WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)... CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED WELL THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW BENIGN CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND A STUBBORN STRATUS DECK OVER EASTERN LOS ANGELES
COUNTY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS LIKE WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN AREAS. EXPECTING SIMILAR STRATUS BEHAVIOR AS LAST
NIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN COMPLETELY OVER THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY AS WELL AS SLO AND NORTHERN SBA
COUNTIES. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD SHRINK BY ABOUT 500 TO 1000 FEET
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD TAKE SOME OF THE STRATUS OUT OF THE COASTAL
SLOPES AND HELP THE CLOUDS SPREAD OUT BETTER OVER SOUTHERN SBA AND
VENTURA COUNTIES.

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER AND
ASSOCIATE STRATUS SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE IN THE BIG PICTURE...BUT
THERE WILL BE RANDOM UNEXPECTED VARIATIONS WHICH WILL AFFECT
TEMPERATURES PLUS OR MINUS A FEW DEGREES. THE ONLY CHANGE WORTH
NOTING IS FOR SOME EXTRA HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PATIENTLY WAITING
TO THE WEST SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SHIFT OVER CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...THEN ENVELOPE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE COAST
BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...WHICH COULD BE MORE STUBBORN AND SOLID
THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW THANKS TO A LIKELY STRONG INVERSION.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE COASTAL SECTION MOSTLY FREE FROM THE WARMING
TREND...AND MODERATE SOME OF THE WARMING OVER THE COASTAL VALLEY
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0000Z.

AT 1700Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 3200 FT DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 5900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 11 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY TERMINALS AND
TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
TIMING COULD BE UP TO TWO HOURS EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MAINLY BETWEEN
08Z AND 16Z..

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS 17Z. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS GREATER THAN 10Z BETWEEN 13Z AND
16Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 PM.

OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR
POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AS THE E PAC HIGH WEAKENS
OFF THE COAST WEST OF SOUTHERN OREGON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
EXPECT THE FLOW TO REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

INNER WATERS...MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE...CS
SYNOPSIS...RK

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 242124
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A
SHARP WARMING TREND AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...WHICH WILL MODERATE THE
WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)... CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED WELL THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW BENIGN CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND A STUBBORN STRATUS DECK OVER EASTERN LOS ANGELES
COUNTY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS LIKE WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN AREAS. EXPECTING SIMILAR STRATUS BEHAVIOR AS LAST
NIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN COMPLETELY OVER THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY AS WELL AS SLO AND NORTHERN SBA
COUNTIES. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD SHRINK BY ABOUT 500 TO 1000 FEET
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD TAKE SOME OF THE STRATUS OUT OF THE COASTAL
SLOPES AND HELP THE CLOUDS SPREAD OUT BETTER OVER SOUTHERN SBA AND
VENTURA COUNTIES.

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER AND
ASSOCIATE STRATUS SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE IN THE BIG PICTURE...BUT
THERE WILL BE RANDOM UNEXPECTED VARIATIONS WHICH WILL AFFECT
TEMPERATURES PLUS OR MINUS A FEW DEGREES. THE ONLY CHANGE WORTH
NOTING IS FOR SOME EXTRA HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PATIENTLY WAITING
TO THE WEST SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SHIFT OVER CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...THEN ENVELOPE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE COAST
BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...WHICH COULD BE MORE STUBBORN AND SOLID
THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW THANKS TO A LIKELY STRONG INVERSION.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE COASTAL SECTION MOSTLY FREE FROM THE WARMING
TREND...AND MODERATE SOME OF THE WARMING OVER THE COASTAL VALLEY
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

24/1800Z

AT 1700Z AT KLAX THERE WAS A WEAK MARINE LAYER 3500 FT DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 4200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 11 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WEAK MARINE LAYER WILL STRENGTHEN
SOME TONIGHT PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD MARINE CLOUD COVERAGE OVER
COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING INLAND VALLEYS. CIGS WILL BE MVFR
TO LOW VFR WITH A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR CIGS AT KSMX.

KLAX...DECENT CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF
BKN MVFR CIGS OVER THE SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 30% CHANCE
VFR CIGS WILL BECOME SCT BETWEEN 20Z-02Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT TIMING COULD DIFFER FROM TAF TIMES.

KBUR...DECENT CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHORT LIVED SCT/VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING OF MVFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT MAY DIFFER FROM TAF TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 PM.

OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR
POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AS THE E PAC HIGH WEAKENS
OFF THE COAST WEST OF SOUTHERN OREGON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
EXPECT THE FLOW TO REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

INNER WATERS...MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE...CS
SYNOPSIS...RK

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 242124
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A
SHARP WARMING TREND AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...WHICH WILL MODERATE THE
WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)... CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED WELL THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW BENIGN CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND A STUBBORN STRATUS DECK OVER EASTERN LOS ANGELES
COUNTY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS LIKE WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN AREAS. EXPECTING SIMILAR STRATUS BEHAVIOR AS LAST
NIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN COMPLETELY OVER THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY AS WELL AS SLO AND NORTHERN SBA
COUNTIES. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD SHRINK BY ABOUT 500 TO 1000 FEET
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD TAKE SOME OF THE STRATUS OUT OF THE COASTAL
SLOPES AND HELP THE CLOUDS SPREAD OUT BETTER OVER SOUTHERN SBA AND
VENTURA COUNTIES.

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER AND
ASSOCIATE STRATUS SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE IN THE BIG PICTURE...BUT
THERE WILL BE RANDOM UNEXPECTED VARIATIONS WHICH WILL AFFECT
TEMPERATURES PLUS OR MINUS A FEW DEGREES. THE ONLY CHANGE WORTH
NOTING IS FOR SOME EXTRA HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PATIENTLY WAITING
TO THE WEST SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SHIFT OVER CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...THEN ENVELOPE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE COAST
BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...WHICH COULD BE MORE STUBBORN AND SOLID
THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW THANKS TO A LIKELY STRONG INVERSION.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE COASTAL SECTION MOSTLY FREE FROM THE WARMING
TREND...AND MODERATE SOME OF THE WARMING OVER THE COASTAL VALLEY
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

24/1800Z

AT 1700Z AT KLAX THERE WAS A WEAK MARINE LAYER 3500 FT DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 4200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 11 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WEAK MARINE LAYER WILL STRENGTHEN
SOME TONIGHT PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD MARINE CLOUD COVERAGE OVER
COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING INLAND VALLEYS. CIGS WILL BE MVFR
TO LOW VFR WITH A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR CIGS AT KSMX.

KLAX...DECENT CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF
BKN MVFR CIGS OVER THE SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 30% CHANCE
VFR CIGS WILL BECOME SCT BETWEEN 20Z-02Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT TIMING COULD DIFFER FROM TAF TIMES.

KBUR...DECENT CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHORT LIVED SCT/VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING OF MVFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT MAY DIFFER FROM TAF TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 PM.

OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR
POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AS THE E PAC HIGH WEAKENS
OFF THE COAST WEST OF SOUTHERN OREGON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
EXPECT THE FLOW TO REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

INNER WATERS...MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE...CS
SYNOPSIS...RK

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 241759
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1053 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A
COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY COOL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AWAY FROM
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
STILL A HAPHAZARD CLOUD PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
SOLID STRATUS FIELD HAS SETTLED INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY AS WELL AS
THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT REMAINS IN RANDOM PATCHES EVERYWHERE ELSE.
SHOULD HAVE DECENT CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE TIMING OF THAT
CLEARING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS DEEP AT 2500-
3500 FEET...BUT IS DOWN 1000-2000 FEET FROM YESTERDAY THANKS TO A
SLIGHTLY STRONG INVERSION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS TO WARM UP AROUND 5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...BUT
KEEP COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. UPDATED
FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS PICTURE BETTER...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WANED...BUT SOME DRIZZLE REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS THANKS TO THE STRATUS
BANKING UP AGAINST THE SLOPES.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PACIFIC TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. EXACTLY
HOW ORGANIZED THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK BECOMES IS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT THE WRF SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS THROUGH TUE. MAX
TEMPS MAY EDGE UP A BIT ON MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND
DESERTS...THEN MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WED. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK
TROFFINESS WILL HANG BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW TUE NIGHT/WED...AND MAX TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND
DESERTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THU AND
FRI...SO EXPECT WARMING EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE A DAY
TO DAY REDUCTION IN THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE
FLOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS...AT
LEAST IN THE VALLEYS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION ON SAT...BUT IT WILL DO SO ONLY SLOWLY...SO THE WEATHER
ON SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT ON FRI.


&&

.AVIATION...

24/1800Z

AT 1700Z AT KLAX THERE WAS A WEAK MARINE LAYER 3500 FT DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 4200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 11 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WEAK MARINE LAYER WILL STRENGTHEN
SOME TONIGHT PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD MARINE CLOUD COVERAGE OVER
COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING INLAND VALLEYS. CIGS WILL BE MVFR
TO LOW VFR WITH A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR CIGS AT KSMX.

KLAX...DECENT CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF
BKN MVFR CIGS OVER THE SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 30% CHANCE
VFR CIGS WILL BECOME SCT BETWEEN 20Z-02Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT TIMING COULD DIFFER FROM TAF TIMES.

KBUR...DECENT CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHORT LIVED SCT/VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING OF MVFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT MAY DIFFER FROM TAF TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. AS THE E PAC HIGH DRIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...EXPECT WEAKER WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

INNER WATERS...MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CS
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 241759
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1053 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A
COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY COOL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AWAY FROM
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
STILL A HAPHAZARD CLOUD PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
SOLID STRATUS FIELD HAS SETTLED INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY AS WELL AS
THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT REMAINS IN RANDOM PATCHES EVERYWHERE ELSE.
SHOULD HAVE DECENT CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE TIMING OF THAT
CLEARING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS DEEP AT 2500-
3500 FEET...BUT IS DOWN 1000-2000 FEET FROM YESTERDAY THANKS TO A
SLIGHTLY STRONG INVERSION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS TO WARM UP AROUND 5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...BUT
KEEP COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. UPDATED
FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS PICTURE BETTER...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WANED...BUT SOME DRIZZLE REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS THANKS TO THE STRATUS
BANKING UP AGAINST THE SLOPES.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PACIFIC TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. EXACTLY
HOW ORGANIZED THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK BECOMES IS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT THE WRF SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS THROUGH TUE. MAX
TEMPS MAY EDGE UP A BIT ON MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND
DESERTS...THEN MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WED. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK
TROFFINESS WILL HANG BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW TUE NIGHT/WED...AND MAX TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND
DESERTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THU AND
FRI...SO EXPECT WARMING EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE A DAY
TO DAY REDUCTION IN THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE
FLOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS...AT
LEAST IN THE VALLEYS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION ON SAT...BUT IT WILL DO SO ONLY SLOWLY...SO THE WEATHER
ON SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT ON FRI.


&&

.AVIATION...

24/1800Z

AT 1700Z AT KLAX THERE WAS A WEAK MARINE LAYER 3500 FT DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 4200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 11 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WEAK MARINE LAYER WILL STRENGTHEN
SOME TONIGHT PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD MARINE CLOUD COVERAGE OVER
COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING INLAND VALLEYS. CIGS WILL BE MVFR
TO LOW VFR WITH A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR CIGS AT KSMX.

KLAX...DECENT CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF
BKN MVFR CIGS OVER THE SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 30% CHANCE
VFR CIGS WILL BECOME SCT BETWEEN 20Z-02Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT TIMING COULD DIFFER FROM TAF TIMES.

KBUR...DECENT CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHORT LIVED SCT/VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING OF MVFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT MAY DIFFER FROM TAF TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. AS THE E PAC HIGH DRIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...EXPECT WEAKER WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

INNER WATERS...MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CS
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 241759
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1053 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A
COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY COOL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AWAY FROM
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
STILL A HAPHAZARD CLOUD PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
SOLID STRATUS FIELD HAS SETTLED INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY AS WELL AS
THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT REMAINS IN RANDOM PATCHES EVERYWHERE ELSE.
SHOULD HAVE DECENT CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE TIMING OF THAT
CLEARING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS DEEP AT 2500-
3500 FEET...BUT IS DOWN 1000-2000 FEET FROM YESTERDAY THANKS TO A
SLIGHTLY STRONG INVERSION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS TO WARM UP AROUND 5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...BUT
KEEP COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. UPDATED
FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS PICTURE BETTER...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WANED...BUT SOME DRIZZLE REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS THANKS TO THE STRATUS
BANKING UP AGAINST THE SLOPES.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PACIFIC TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. EXACTLY
HOW ORGANIZED THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK BECOMES IS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT THE WRF SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS THROUGH TUE. MAX
TEMPS MAY EDGE UP A BIT ON MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND
DESERTS...THEN MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WED. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK
TROFFINESS WILL HANG BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW TUE NIGHT/WED...AND MAX TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND
DESERTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THU AND
FRI...SO EXPECT WARMING EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE A DAY
TO DAY REDUCTION IN THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE
FLOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS...AT
LEAST IN THE VALLEYS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION ON SAT...BUT IT WILL DO SO ONLY SLOWLY...SO THE WEATHER
ON SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT ON FRI.


&&

.AVIATION...

24/1800Z

AT 1700Z AT KLAX THERE WAS A WEAK MARINE LAYER 3500 FT DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 4200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 11 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WEAK MARINE LAYER WILL STRENGTHEN
SOME TONIGHT PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD MARINE CLOUD COVERAGE OVER
COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING INLAND VALLEYS. CIGS WILL BE MVFR
TO LOW VFR WITH A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR CIGS AT KSMX.

KLAX...DECENT CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF
BKN MVFR CIGS OVER THE SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 30% CHANCE
VFR CIGS WILL BECOME SCT BETWEEN 20Z-02Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT TIMING COULD DIFFER FROM TAF TIMES.

KBUR...DECENT CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHORT LIVED SCT/VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING OF MVFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT MAY DIFFER FROM TAF TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. AS THE E PAC HIGH DRIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...EXPECT WEAKER WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

INNER WATERS...MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CS
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 241620
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A
COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY COOL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AWAY FROM
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
STILL A HAPHAZARD CLOUD PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
SOLID STRATUS FIELD HAS SETTLED INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY AS WELL AS
THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT REMAINS IN RANDOM PATCHES EVERYWHERE ELSE.
SHOULD HAVE DECENT CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE TIMING OF THAT
CLEARING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS DEEP AT 2500-
3500 FEET...BUT IS DOWN 1000-2000 FEET FROM YESTERDAY THANKS TO A
SLIGHTLY STRONG INVERSION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS TO WARM UP AROUND 5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...BUT
KEEP COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. UPDATED
FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS PICTURE BETTER...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WANED...BUT SOME DRIZZLE REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS THANKS TO THE STRATUS
BANKING UP AGAINST THE SLOPES.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PACIFIC TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. EXACTLY
HOW ORGANIZED THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK BECOMES IS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT THE WRF SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS THROUGH TUE. MAX
TEMPS MAY EDGE UP A BIT ON MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND
DESERTS...THEN MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WED. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK
TROFFINESS WILL HANG BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW TUE NIGHT/WED...AND MAX TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND
DESERTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THU AND
FRI...SO EXPECT WARMING EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE A DAY
TO DAY REDUCTION IN THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE
FLOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS...AT
LEAST IN THE VALLEYS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION ON SAT...BUT IT WILL DO SO ONLY SLOWLY...SO THE WEATHER
ON SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT ON FRI.


&&

.AVIATION...

24/1130Z

AT 0826Z AT KLAX THERE WAS A WEAK 3000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 10 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TAFS A WEAK MARINE LAYER WILL BRING MORNING
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS TO MOST COASTAL AND VLY SITES AND A VFR BKN
STRATA CU LAYER TO THE VLY SITES AND A SCT LAYER TO THE CSTL SITES
IN THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD COVER MORE OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

KLAX...DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC THAT MVFR
CIGS WILL LAST UNTIL 20Z AND THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHC OF SCT CONDS
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBUR...DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHORT LIVED SCT CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. AS THE E PAC HIGH DRIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...EXPECT WEAKER WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

INNER WATERS...MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CS/RORKE
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 241620
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A
COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY COOL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AWAY FROM
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
STILL A HAPHAZARD CLOUD PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
SOLID STRATUS FIELD HAS SETTLED INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY AS WELL AS
THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT REMAINS IN RANDOM PATCHES EVERYWHERE ELSE.
SHOULD HAVE DECENT CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE TIMING OF THAT
CLEARING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS DEEP AT 2500-
3500 FEET...BUT IS DOWN 1000-2000 FEET FROM YESTERDAY THANKS TO A
SLIGHTLY STRONG INVERSION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS TO WARM UP AROUND 5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...BUT
KEEP COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. UPDATED
FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS PICTURE BETTER...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WANED...BUT SOME DRIZZLE REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS THANKS TO THE STRATUS
BANKING UP AGAINST THE SLOPES.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PACIFIC TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. EXACTLY
HOW ORGANIZED THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK BECOMES IS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT THE WRF SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS THROUGH TUE. MAX
TEMPS MAY EDGE UP A BIT ON MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND
DESERTS...THEN MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WED. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK
TROFFINESS WILL HANG BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW TUE NIGHT/WED...AND MAX TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND
DESERTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THU AND
FRI...SO EXPECT WARMING EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE A DAY
TO DAY REDUCTION IN THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE
FLOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS...AT
LEAST IN THE VALLEYS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION ON SAT...BUT IT WILL DO SO ONLY SLOWLY...SO THE WEATHER
ON SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT ON FRI.


&&

.AVIATION...

24/1130Z

AT 0826Z AT KLAX THERE WAS A WEAK 3000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 10 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TAFS A WEAK MARINE LAYER WILL BRING MORNING
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS TO MOST COASTAL AND VLY SITES AND A VFR BKN
STRATA CU LAYER TO THE VLY SITES AND A SCT LAYER TO THE CSTL SITES
IN THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD COVER MORE OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

KLAX...DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC THAT MVFR
CIGS WILL LAST UNTIL 20Z AND THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHC OF SCT CONDS
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBUR...DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHORT LIVED SCT CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. AS THE E PAC HIGH DRIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...EXPECT WEAKER WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

INNER WATERS...MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CS/RORKE
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 241153 RRA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A
COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY COOL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AWAY FROM
THE COAST. &&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...HAPHAZARD CLOUD PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...A VERY WEAK INVERSION...AND AN UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS
KERN COUNTY LATE LAST EVENING...AND WEAKENED TO JUST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS THEY DRIFTED INTO THE NORTHERN MTNS OF VTU
AND NWRN L.A. COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. A FEW GAUGES IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF L.A. COUNTY REPORTED MEASURABLE RAIN...ALL LESS THAN
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. THE MOST SOLID CLOUD COVER WAS CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE NRN MTN SLOPES AND ACROSS EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO CAUSE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS
MORNING...BUT THAT WILL BE ABOUT IT. IN GENERAL...EXPECT SKIES TO
AVERAGE OUT TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY...AS SOME STRATCU DEVELOPS
ONCE THERE IS SOME DAYTIME HEATING. MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES TODAY...WITH THE MOST WARMING EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AND
DESERTS. HOWEVER...TEMPS STILL WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

THE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PACIFIC TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. EXACTLY
HOW ORGANIZED OF A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK BECOMES IS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT THE WRF SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS THROUGH TUE. MAX
TEMPS MAY EDGE UP A BIT ON MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND
DESERTS...THEN MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WED. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK
TROFFINESS WILL HANG BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW TUE NIGHT/WED...AND MAX TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND
DESERTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THU AND
FRI...SO EXPECT WARMING EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE A DAY
TO DAY REDUCTION IN THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE
FLOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS...AT
LEAST IN THE VALLEYS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION ON SAT...BUT IT WILL DO SO ONLY SLOWLY...SO THE WEATHER
ON SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT ON FRI.


&&

.AVIATION...

24/1130Z

AT 0826Z AT KLAX THERE WAS A WEAK 3000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 10 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TAFS A WEAK MARINE LAYER WILL BRING MORNING
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS TO MOST COASTAL AND VLY SITES AND A VFR BKN
STRATA CU LAYER TO THE VLY SITES AND A SCT LAYER TO THE CSTL SITES
IN THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD COVER MORE OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

KLAX...DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC THAT MVFR
CIGS WILL LAST UNTIL 20Z AND THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHC OF SCT CONDS
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBUR...DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHORT LIVED SCT CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

24/300 AM

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHORT TERM MARINE FORECAST WITH NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITION EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 241107 RRA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
336 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A
COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY COOL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AWAY FROM
THE COAST. &&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...HAPHAZARD CLOUD PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...A VERY WEAK INVERSION...AND AN UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS
KERN COUNTY LATE LAST EVENING...AND WEAKENED TO JUST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS THEY DRIFTED INTO THE NORTHERN MTNS OF VTU
AND NWRN L.A. COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. A FEW GAUGES IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF L.A. COUNTY REPORTED MEASURABLE RAIN...ALL LESS THAN
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. THE MOST SOLID CLOUD COVER WAS CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE NRN MTN SLOPES AND ACROSS EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO CAUSE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS
MORNING...BUT THAT WILL BE ABOUT IT. IN GENERAL...EXPECT SKIES TO
AVERAGE OUT TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY...AS SOME STRATOCU DEVELOPS
ONCE THERE IS SOME DAYTIME HEATING. MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES TODAY...WITH THE MOST WARMING EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AND
DESERTS. HOWEVER...TEMPS STILL WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

THE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PACIFIC TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. EXACTLY
HOW ORGANIZED OF A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK BECOMES IS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT THE WRF SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS THROUGH TUE. MAX
TEMPS MAY EDGE UP A BIT ON MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND
DESERTS...THEN MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WED. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK
TROFFINESS WILL HANG BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW TUE NIGHT/WED...AND MAX TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND
DESERTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THU AND
FRI...SO EXPECT WARMING EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE A DAY
TO DAY REDUCTION IN THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE
FLOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS...AT
LEAST IN THE VALLEYS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION ON SAT...BUT IT WILL DO SO ONLY SLOWLY...SO THE WEATHER
ON SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT ON FRI.


&&

.AVIATION...24/1130Z...

WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 241107 RRA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
336 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A
COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY COOL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AWAY FROM
THE COAST. &&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...HAPHAZARD CLOUD PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...A VERY WEAK INVERSION...AND AN UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS
KERN COUNTY LATE LAST EVENING...AND WEAKENED TO JUST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS THEY DRIFTED INTO THE NORTHERN MTNS OF VTU
AND NWRN L.A. COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. A FEW GAUGES IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF L.A. COUNTY REPORTED MEASURABLE RAIN...ALL LESS THAN
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. THE MOST SOLID CLOUD COVER WAS CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE NRN MTN SLOPES AND ACROSS EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO CAUSE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS
MORNING...BUT THAT WILL BE ABOUT IT. IN GENERAL...EXPECT SKIES TO
AVERAGE OUT TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY...AS SOME STRATOCU DEVELOPS
ONCE THERE IS SOME DAYTIME HEATING. MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES TODAY...WITH THE MOST WARMING EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AND
DESERTS. HOWEVER...TEMPS STILL WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

THE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PACIFIC TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. EXACTLY
HOW ORGANIZED OF A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK BECOMES IS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT THE WRF SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS THROUGH TUE. MAX
TEMPS MAY EDGE UP A BIT ON MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND
DESERTS...THEN MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WED. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK
TROFFINESS WILL HANG BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW TUE NIGHT/WED...AND MAX TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND
DESERTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THU AND
FRI...SO EXPECT WARMING EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE A DAY
TO DAY REDUCTION IN THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE
FLOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS...AT
LEAST IN THE VALLEYS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION ON SAT...BUT IT WILL DO SO ONLY SLOWLY...SO THE WEATHER
ON SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT ON FRI.


&&

.AVIATION...24/1130Z...

WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 240434
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE THE PERSISTENT NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING WARMING TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR FRESNO AS OF 8 PM. THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES
OF -19 DEGREES CELSISUS AT THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT HAS GENERATED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PASSING JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF SLO COUNTY
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KERN COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. IN EVENING UPDATE...WILL EXPAND
THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
ADJACENT TO KERN COUNTY LINE (WHERE THERE WILL BE BEST INSTABILITY). IN ADDITION...THE
PASSAGE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THE MOIST LAYER IN LA COUNTY TO GENERATE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...SO THAT WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED
IN EVENING UPDATE. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA COUNTY
TONIGHT AS THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY...MOUNTAINS...AND SBA SOUTH COAST TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM...BUT MOSTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK HITTING TONIGHT THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING BETTER
CLEARING ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH SOME WARMING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK COULD A BE BIT DEEPER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES. STRATUS INTRUSION COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

A TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A WARMING TREND WITH LESS
MARINE INTRUSION AWAY FROM THE COAST. GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS DIMINISHING INTO LATE WEEK BUT STILL
REMAIN ONSHORE INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A SHARPER WARMING TREND SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST MAY BE THE BEST FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK FOR THE
COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS AS A MAY GRAY PATTERN DEVELOPS TO
FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2335Z.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOIST LAYER COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR/VFR AND THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KT ACROSS LA BASIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
BUT TIMING REAMINS IN QUESTION...MOST LIKELY IN THE 03-05Z RANGE. EDDY CIRCULATION
WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BRIEFLY REACHING 10KT SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER
INTO AFTERNOON...BUT 30% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...SCT-BKN040 CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN VFR CIGS GENERALLY PREVAILING
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EDDY CIRCULATION LIKELY TO ENHANCE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER ON SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO AFTERNOON...BUT
20% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...23/800 PM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.  BY SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL TONIGHT. LOCAL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/HALL
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 240434
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE THE PERSISTENT NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING WARMING TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR FRESNO AS OF 8 PM. THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES
OF -19 DEGREES CELSISUS AT THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT HAS GENERATED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PASSING JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF SLO COUNTY
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KERN COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. IN EVENING UPDATE...WILL EXPAND
THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
ADJACENT TO KERN COUNTY LINE (WHERE THERE WILL BE BEST INSTABILITY). IN ADDITION...THE
PASSAGE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THE MOIST LAYER IN LA COUNTY TO GENERATE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...SO THAT WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED
IN EVENING UPDATE. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA COUNTY
TONIGHT AS THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY...MOUNTAINS...AND SBA SOUTH COAST TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM...BUT MOSTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK HITTING TONIGHT THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING BETTER
CLEARING ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH SOME WARMING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK COULD A BE BIT DEEPER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES. STRATUS INTRUSION COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

A TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A WARMING TREND WITH LESS
MARINE INTRUSION AWAY FROM THE COAST. GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS DIMINISHING INTO LATE WEEK BUT STILL
REMAIN ONSHORE INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A SHARPER WARMING TREND SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST MAY BE THE BEST FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK FOR THE
COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS AS A MAY GRAY PATTERN DEVELOPS TO
FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2335Z.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOIST LAYER COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR/VFR AND THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KT ACROSS LA BASIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
BUT TIMING REAMINS IN QUESTION...MOST LIKELY IN THE 03-05Z RANGE. EDDY CIRCULATION
WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BRIEFLY REACHING 10KT SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER
INTO AFTERNOON...BUT 30% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...SCT-BKN040 CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN VFR CIGS GENERALLY PREVAILING
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EDDY CIRCULATION LIKELY TO ENHANCE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER ON SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO AFTERNOON...BUT
20% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...23/800 PM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.  BY SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL TONIGHT. LOCAL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/HALL
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 240434
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE THE PERSISTENT NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING WARMING TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR FRESNO AS OF 8 PM. THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES
OF -19 DEGREES CELSISUS AT THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT HAS GENERATED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PASSING JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF SLO COUNTY
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KERN COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. IN EVENING UPDATE...WILL EXPAND
THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
ADJACENT TO KERN COUNTY LINE (WHERE THERE WILL BE BEST INSTABILITY). IN ADDITION...THE
PASSAGE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THE MOIST LAYER IN LA COUNTY TO GENERATE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...SO THAT WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED
IN EVENING UPDATE. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA COUNTY
TONIGHT AS THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY...MOUNTAINS...AND SBA SOUTH COAST TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM...BUT MOSTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK HITTING TONIGHT THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING BETTER
CLEARING ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH SOME WARMING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK COULD A BE BIT DEEPER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES. STRATUS INTRUSION COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

A TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A WARMING TREND WITH LESS
MARINE INTRUSION AWAY FROM THE COAST. GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS DIMINISHING INTO LATE WEEK BUT STILL
REMAIN ONSHORE INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A SHARPER WARMING TREND SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST MAY BE THE BEST FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK FOR THE
COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS AS A MAY GRAY PATTERN DEVELOPS TO
FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2335Z.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOIST LAYER COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR/VFR AND THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KT ACROSS LA BASIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
BUT TIMING REAMINS IN QUESTION...MOST LIKELY IN THE 03-05Z RANGE. EDDY CIRCULATION
WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BRIEFLY REACHING 10KT SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER
INTO AFTERNOON...BUT 30% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...SCT-BKN040 CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN VFR CIGS GENERALLY PREVAILING
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EDDY CIRCULATION LIKELY TO ENHANCE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER ON SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO AFTERNOON...BUT
20% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...23/800 PM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.  BY SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL TONIGHT. LOCAL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/HALL
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 240434
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE THE PERSISTENT NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING WARMING TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR FRESNO AS OF 8 PM. THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES
OF -19 DEGREES CELSISUS AT THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT HAS GENERATED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PASSING JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF SLO COUNTY
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KERN COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. IN EVENING UPDATE...WILL EXPAND
THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
ADJACENT TO KERN COUNTY LINE (WHERE THERE WILL BE BEST INSTABILITY). IN ADDITION...THE
PASSAGE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THE MOIST LAYER IN LA COUNTY TO GENERATE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...SO THAT WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED
IN EVENING UPDATE. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA COUNTY
TONIGHT AS THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY...MOUNTAINS...AND SBA SOUTH COAST TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM...BUT MOSTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK HITTING TONIGHT THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING BETTER
CLEARING ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH SOME WARMING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK COULD A BE BIT DEEPER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES. STRATUS INTRUSION COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

A TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A WARMING TREND WITH LESS
MARINE INTRUSION AWAY FROM THE COAST. GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS DIMINISHING INTO LATE WEEK BUT STILL
REMAIN ONSHORE INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A SHARPER WARMING TREND SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST MAY BE THE BEST FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK FOR THE
COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS AS A MAY GRAY PATTERN DEVELOPS TO
FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2335Z.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOIST LAYER COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR/VFR AND THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KT ACROSS LA BASIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
BUT TIMING REAMINS IN QUESTION...MOST LIKELY IN THE 03-05Z RANGE. EDDY CIRCULATION
WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BRIEFLY REACHING 10KT SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER
INTO AFTERNOON...BUT 30% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...SCT-BKN040 CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN VFR CIGS GENERALLY PREVAILING
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EDDY CIRCULATION LIKELY TO ENHANCE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER ON SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO AFTERNOON...BUT
20% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...23/800 PM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.  BY SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL TONIGHT. LOCAL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/HALL
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 240339
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE THE PERSISTENT NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING WARMING TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR FRESNO AS OF 8 PM. THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES
OF -19 DEGREES CELSISUS AT THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT HAS GENERATED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PASSING JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF SLO COUNTY
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KERN COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. IN EVENING UPDATE...WILL EXPAND
THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
ADJACENT TO KERN COUNTY LINE (WHERE THERE WILL BE BEST INSTABILITY). IN ADDITION...THE
PASSAGE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THE MOIST LAYER IN LA COUNTY TO GENERATE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...SO THAT WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED
IN EVENING UPDATE. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA COUNTY
TONIGHT AS THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY...MOUNTAINS...AND SBA SOUTH COAST TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM...BUT MOSTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK HITTING TONIGHT THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING BETTER
CLEARING ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH SOME WARMING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK COULD A BE BIT DEEPER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES. STRATUS INTRUSION COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

A TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A WARMING TREND WITH LESS
MARINE INTRUSION AWAY FROM THE COAST. GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS DIMINISHING INTO LATE WEEK BUT STILL
REMAIN ONSHORE INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A SHARPER WARMING TREND SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST MAY BE THE BEST FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK FOR THE
COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS AS A MAY GRAY PATTERN DEVELOPS TO
FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2335Z.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOIST LAYER COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR/VFR AND THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KT ACROSS LA BASIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
BUT TIMING REAMINS IN QUESTION...MOST LIKELY IN THE 03-05Z RANGE. EDDY CIRCULATION
WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BRIEFLY REACHING 10KT SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER
INTO AFTERNOON...BUT 30% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...SCT-BKN040 CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN VFR CIGS GENERALLY PREVAILING
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EDDY CIRCULATION LIKELY TO ENHANCE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER ON SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO AFTERNOON...BUT
20% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...23/800 PM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.  BY SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL
AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/HALL
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 240339
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE THE PERSISTENT NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING WARMING TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR FRESNO AS OF 8 PM. THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES
OF -19 DEGREES CELSISUS AT THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT HAS GENERATED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PASSING JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF SLO COUNTY
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KERN COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. IN EVENING UPDATE...WILL EXPAND
THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
ADJACENT TO KERN COUNTY LINE (WHERE THERE WILL BE BEST INSTABILITY). IN ADDITION...THE
PASSAGE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THE MOIST LAYER IN LA COUNTY TO GENERATE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...SO THAT WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED
IN EVENING UPDATE. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA COUNTY
TONIGHT AS THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY...MOUNTAINS...AND SBA SOUTH COAST TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM...BUT MOSTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK HITTING TONIGHT THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING BETTER
CLEARING ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH SOME WARMING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK COULD A BE BIT DEEPER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES. STRATUS INTRUSION COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

A TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A WARMING TREND WITH LESS
MARINE INTRUSION AWAY FROM THE COAST. GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS DIMINISHING INTO LATE WEEK BUT STILL
REMAIN ONSHORE INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A SHARPER WARMING TREND SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST MAY BE THE BEST FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK FOR THE
COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS AS A MAY GRAY PATTERN DEVELOPS TO
FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2335Z.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOIST LAYER COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR/VFR AND THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KT ACROSS LA BASIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
BUT TIMING REAMINS IN QUESTION...MOST LIKELY IN THE 03-05Z RANGE. EDDY CIRCULATION
WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BRIEFLY REACHING 10KT SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER
INTO AFTERNOON...BUT 30% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...SCT-BKN040 CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN VFR CIGS GENERALLY PREVAILING
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EDDY CIRCULATION LIKELY TO ENHANCE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER ON SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO AFTERNOON...BUT
20% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...23/800 PM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.  BY SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL
AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/HALL
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 232349
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS
UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD BRING A WARMING TREND AWAY FROM
THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

A MUDDLED CLOUDY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
UTAH. A COOL AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE BAY AREA WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
PATTERN AROUND THE BROADER TROUGH CIRCULATION INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD REDEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND DEEPENS THE MARINE LAYER. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD FORECAST EXISTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A WELL-
DEVELOPED STRATUS DECK PUSHED WELL INTO THE HIGHER SAN LUIS OBISPO
AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY VALLEYS THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE TROUGH
APPROACHING...IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAIN PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHT.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AN EDDY CIRCULATION ALREADY IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CATALINA ISLAND SHOULD REGENERATE AGAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
REDEVELOP...MUCH EARLIER THAN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INSTABILITY WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE CENTRAL COAST...AND
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. POPS WERE NUDGED HIGHER WITH AN EARLIER UPDATE THIS
MORNING...AND DRIZZLE WAS ADDED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SKIES
SHOULD START CLEARING LATE SUNDAY MORNING...GIVING AWAY TO PARTIAL
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK COULD A BE BIT DEEPER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES. STRATUS INTRUSION COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

A TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A WARMING TREND WITH LESS
MARINE INTRUSION AWAY FROM THE COAST. GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS DIMINISHING INTO LATE WEEK BUT STILL
REMAIN ONSHORE INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A SHARPER WARMING TREND SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST MAY BE THE BEST FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK FOR THE
COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS AS A MAY GRAY PATTERN DEVELOPS TO
FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2335Z.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOIST LAYER COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR/VFR AND THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KT ACROSS LA BASIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
BUT TIMING REAMINS IN QUESTION...MOST LIKELY IN THE 03-05Z RANGE. EDDY CIRCULATION
WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BRIEFLY REACHING 10KT SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER
INTO AFTERNOON...BUT 30% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...SCT-BKN040 CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN VFR CIGS GENERALLY PREVAILING
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EDDY CIRCULATION LIKELY TO ENHANCE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER ON SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO AFTERNOON...BUT
20% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...23/300 PM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE
EVENING. BY SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A
30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. 20% CHANCE A SCA
WILL BE NEEDED. LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 232349
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS
UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD BRING A WARMING TREND AWAY FROM
THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

A MUDDLED CLOUDY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
UTAH. A COOL AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE BAY AREA WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
PATTERN AROUND THE BROADER TROUGH CIRCULATION INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD REDEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND DEEPENS THE MARINE LAYER. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD FORECAST EXISTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A WELL-
DEVELOPED STRATUS DECK PUSHED WELL INTO THE HIGHER SAN LUIS OBISPO
AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY VALLEYS THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE TROUGH
APPROACHING...IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAIN PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHT.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AN EDDY CIRCULATION ALREADY IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CATALINA ISLAND SHOULD REGENERATE AGAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
REDEVELOP...MUCH EARLIER THAN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INSTABILITY WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE CENTRAL COAST...AND
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. POPS WERE NUDGED HIGHER WITH AN EARLIER UPDATE THIS
MORNING...AND DRIZZLE WAS ADDED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SKIES
SHOULD START CLEARING LATE SUNDAY MORNING...GIVING AWAY TO PARTIAL
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK COULD A BE BIT DEEPER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES. STRATUS INTRUSION COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

A TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A WARMING TREND WITH LESS
MARINE INTRUSION AWAY FROM THE COAST. GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS DIMINISHING INTO LATE WEEK BUT STILL
REMAIN ONSHORE INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A SHARPER WARMING TREND SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST MAY BE THE BEST FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK FOR THE
COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS AS A MAY GRAY PATTERN DEVELOPS TO
FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2335Z.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOIST LAYER COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR/VFR AND THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KT ACROSS LA BASIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
BUT TIMING REAMINS IN QUESTION...MOST LIKELY IN THE 03-05Z RANGE. EDDY CIRCULATION
WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BRIEFLY REACHING 10KT SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER
INTO AFTERNOON...BUT 30% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...SCT-BKN040 CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN VFR CIGS GENERALLY PREVAILING
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EDDY CIRCULATION LIKELY TO ENHANCE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER ON SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO AFTERNOON...BUT
20% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...23/300 PM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE
EVENING. BY SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A
30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. 20% CHANCE A SCA
WILL BE NEEDED. LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 232349
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS
UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD BRING A WARMING TREND AWAY FROM
THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

A MUDDLED CLOUDY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
UTAH. A COOL AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE BAY AREA WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
PATTERN AROUND THE BROADER TROUGH CIRCULATION INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD REDEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND DEEPENS THE MARINE LAYER. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD FORECAST EXISTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A WELL-
DEVELOPED STRATUS DECK PUSHED WELL INTO THE HIGHER SAN LUIS OBISPO
AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY VALLEYS THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE TROUGH
APPROACHING...IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAIN PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHT.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AN EDDY CIRCULATION ALREADY IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CATALINA ISLAND SHOULD REGENERATE AGAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
REDEVELOP...MUCH EARLIER THAN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INSTABILITY WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE CENTRAL COAST...AND
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. POPS WERE NUDGED HIGHER WITH AN EARLIER UPDATE THIS
MORNING...AND DRIZZLE WAS ADDED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SKIES
SHOULD START CLEARING LATE SUNDAY MORNING...GIVING AWAY TO PARTIAL
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK COULD A BE BIT DEEPER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES. STRATUS INTRUSION COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

A TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A WARMING TREND WITH LESS
MARINE INTRUSION AWAY FROM THE COAST. GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS DIMINISHING INTO LATE WEEK BUT STILL
REMAIN ONSHORE INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A SHARPER WARMING TREND SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST MAY BE THE BEST FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK FOR THE
COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS AS A MAY GRAY PATTERN DEVELOPS TO
FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2335Z.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOIST LAYER COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR/VFR AND THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KT ACROSS LA BASIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
BUT TIMING REAMINS IN QUESTION...MOST LIKELY IN THE 03-05Z RANGE. EDDY CIRCULATION
WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BRIEFLY REACHING 10KT SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER
INTO AFTERNOON...BUT 30% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...SCT-BKN040 CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN VFR CIGS GENERALLY PREVAILING
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EDDY CIRCULATION LIKELY TO ENHANCE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER ON SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO AFTERNOON...BUT
20% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...23/300 PM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE
EVENING. BY SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A
30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. 20% CHANCE A SCA
WILL BE NEEDED. LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 232349
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS
UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD BRING A WARMING TREND AWAY FROM
THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

A MUDDLED CLOUDY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
UTAH. A COOL AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE BAY AREA WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
PATTERN AROUND THE BROADER TROUGH CIRCULATION INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD REDEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND DEEPENS THE MARINE LAYER. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD FORECAST EXISTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A WELL-
DEVELOPED STRATUS DECK PUSHED WELL INTO THE HIGHER SAN LUIS OBISPO
AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY VALLEYS THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE TROUGH
APPROACHING...IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAIN PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHT.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AN EDDY CIRCULATION ALREADY IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CATALINA ISLAND SHOULD REGENERATE AGAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
REDEVELOP...MUCH EARLIER THAN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INSTABILITY WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE CENTRAL COAST...AND
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. POPS WERE NUDGED HIGHER WITH AN EARLIER UPDATE THIS
MORNING...AND DRIZZLE WAS ADDED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SKIES
SHOULD START CLEARING LATE SUNDAY MORNING...GIVING AWAY TO PARTIAL
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK COULD A BE BIT DEEPER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES. STRATUS INTRUSION COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

A TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A WARMING TREND WITH LESS
MARINE INTRUSION AWAY FROM THE COAST. GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS DIMINISHING INTO LATE WEEK BUT STILL
REMAIN ONSHORE INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A SHARPER WARMING TREND SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST MAY BE THE BEST FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK FOR THE
COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS AS A MAY GRAY PATTERN DEVELOPS TO
FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2335Z.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOIST LAYER COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR/VFR AND THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KT ACROSS LA BASIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
BUT TIMING REAMINS IN QUESTION...MOST LIKELY IN THE 03-05Z RANGE. EDDY CIRCULATION
WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BRIEFLY REACHING 10KT SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER
INTO AFTERNOON...BUT 30% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...SCT-BKN040 CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN VFR CIGS GENERALLY PREVAILING
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EDDY CIRCULATION LIKELY TO ENHANCE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER ON SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO AFTERNOON...BUT
20% CHANCE OF SCT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...23/300 PM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE
EVENING. BY SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A
30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. 20% CHANCE A SCA
WILL BE NEEDED. LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 232201
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS
UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD BRING A WARMING TREND AWAY FROM
THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

A MUDDLED CLOUDY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
UTAH. A COOL AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE BAY AREA WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
PATTERN AROUND THE BROADER TROUGH CIRCULATION INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD REDEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND DEEPENS THE MARINE LAYER. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD FORECAST EXISTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A WELL-
DEVELOPED STRATUS DECK PUSHED WELL INTO THE HIGHER SAN LUIS OBISPO
AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY VALLEYS THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE TROUGH
APPROACHING...IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAIN PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHT.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AN EDDY CIRCULATION ALREADY IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CATALINA ISLAND SHOULD REGENERATE AGAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
REDEVELOP...MUCH EARLIER THAN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INSTABILITY WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE CENTRAL COAST...AND
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. POPS WERE NUDGED HIGHER WITH AN EARLIER UPDATE THIS
MORNING...AND DRIZZLE WAS ADDED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SKIES
SHOULD START CLEARING LATE SUNDAY MORNING...GIVING AWAY TO PARTIAL
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK COULD A BE BIT DEEPER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES. STRATUS INTRUSION COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

A TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A WARMING TREND WITH LESS
MARINE INTRUSION AWAY FROM THE COAST. GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS DIMINISHING INTO LATE WEEK BUT STILL
REMAIN ONSHORE INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A SHARPER WARMING TREND SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST MAY BE THE BEST FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK FOR THE
COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS AS A MAY GRAY PATTERN DEVELOPS TO
FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1800Z.

AT 1210Z...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4200 FEET DEEP WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 8.5 DEGREES C AT 4400 FT NEAR LAX.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CIGS
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST...SALINAS VALLEY AND MANY FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THEY
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR/VFR AND THERE WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT -RA OR DZ...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TERRAIN.

LAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT VFR
CIGS WILL BECOME SCT DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS
RETURN THIS EVENING MAY DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 03Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. GENERALLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED
FOR THE SITE TODAY. TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
IS LOWER CERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...23/300 PM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE
EVENING. BY SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A
30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. 20% CHANCE A SCA
WILL BE NEEDED. LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 232201
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS
UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD BRING A WARMING TREND AWAY FROM
THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

A MUDDLED CLOUDY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
UTAH. A COOL AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE BAY AREA WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
PATTERN AROUND THE BROADER TROUGH CIRCULATION INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD REDEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND DEEPENS THE MARINE LAYER. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD FORECAST EXISTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A WELL-
DEVELOPED STRATUS DECK PUSHED WELL INTO THE HIGHER SAN LUIS OBISPO
AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY VALLEYS THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE TROUGH
APPROACHING...IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAIN PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHT.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AN EDDY CIRCULATION ALREADY IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CATALINA ISLAND SHOULD REGENERATE AGAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
REDEVELOP...MUCH EARLIER THAN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INSTABILITY WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE CENTRAL COAST...AND
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. POPS WERE NUDGED HIGHER WITH AN EARLIER UPDATE THIS
MORNING...AND DRIZZLE WAS ADDED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SKIES
SHOULD START CLEARING LATE SUNDAY MORNING...GIVING AWAY TO PARTIAL
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK COULD A BE BIT DEEPER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES. STRATUS INTRUSION COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

A TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A WARMING TREND WITH LESS
MARINE INTRUSION AWAY FROM THE COAST. GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS DIMINISHING INTO LATE WEEK BUT STILL
REMAIN ONSHORE INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A SHARPER WARMING TREND SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST MAY BE THE BEST FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK FOR THE
COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS AS A MAY GRAY PATTERN DEVELOPS TO
FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1800Z.

AT 1210Z...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4200 FEET DEEP WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 8.5 DEGREES C AT 4400 FT NEAR LAX.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CIGS
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST...SALINAS VALLEY AND MANY FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THEY
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR/VFR AND THERE WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT -RA OR DZ...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TERRAIN.

LAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT VFR
CIGS WILL BECOME SCT DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS
RETURN THIS EVENING MAY DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 03Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. GENERALLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED
FOR THE SITE TODAY. TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
IS LOWER CERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...23/300 PM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE
EVENING. BY SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A
30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. 20% CHANCE A SCA
WILL BE NEEDED. LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 232201
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS
UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD BRING A WARMING TREND AWAY FROM
THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

A MUDDLED CLOUDY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
UTAH. A COOL AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE BAY AREA WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
PATTERN AROUND THE BROADER TROUGH CIRCULATION INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD REDEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND DEEPENS THE MARINE LAYER. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD FORECAST EXISTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A WELL-
DEVELOPED STRATUS DECK PUSHED WELL INTO THE HIGHER SAN LUIS OBISPO
AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY VALLEYS THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE TROUGH
APPROACHING...IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAIN PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHT.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AN EDDY CIRCULATION ALREADY IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CATALINA ISLAND SHOULD REGENERATE AGAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
REDEVELOP...MUCH EARLIER THAN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INSTABILITY WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE CENTRAL COAST...AND
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. POPS WERE NUDGED HIGHER WITH AN EARLIER UPDATE THIS
MORNING...AND DRIZZLE WAS ADDED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SKIES
SHOULD START CLEARING LATE SUNDAY MORNING...GIVING AWAY TO PARTIAL
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK COULD A BE BIT DEEPER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES. STRATUS INTRUSION COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND INTO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

A TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A WARMING TREND WITH LESS
MARINE INTRUSION AWAY FROM THE COAST. GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS DIMINISHING INTO LATE WEEK BUT STILL
REMAIN ONSHORE INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A SHARPER WARMING TREND SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST MAY BE THE BEST FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK FOR THE
COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS AS A MAY GRAY PATTERN DEVELOPS TO
FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1800Z.

AT 1210Z...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4200 FEET DEEP WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 8.5 DEGREES C AT 4400 FT NEAR LAX.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CIGS
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST...SALINAS VALLEY AND MANY FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THEY
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR/VFR AND THERE WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT -RA OR DZ...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TERRAIN.

LAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT VFR
CIGS WILL BECOME SCT DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS
RETURN THIS EVENING MAY DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 03Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. GENERALLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED
FOR THE SITE TODAY. TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
IS LOWER CERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...23/300 PM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE
EVENING. BY SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A
30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. 20% CHANCE A SCA
WILL BE NEEDED. LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 232030
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING WARMING AWAY FROM THE COAST
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. THE BROAD TROUGH CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL UTAH AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND MOVING
SOUTH. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT AND DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CLOUD
FORECAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THE BEACHES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...A DEEP MOIST LAYER NEAR 7500 FEET OVER THE REGION
CONTINUES A LOW CONFIDENCE CLOUD FORECAST AS THE STUBBORN
MOIST LAYER PLAYS TRICKS ON THE MARINE INVERSION. DESPITE A VERY
VISIBLE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BIGHT THIS MORNING...CLOUDS STILL NEVER FILLED IN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. AS THE MORNING...SUNLIGHT HAS HIT THE LAND MASS
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY
SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA DROPS
SOUTH TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE. AN EARLY RETURN OF THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS SHOULD EXPECTED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS
SOME OMEGA VALUES EXIST IN NAM TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. DRIZZLE MAY
BE ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS
ADDED FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THROUGH AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAN GABRIEL RANGE. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND UPSLOPES INTO THE
SAN GABRIELS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE
REGION. AN UPDATE TO FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE
SE. SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

LONG TERM... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1800Z...

AT 1210Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT LAX.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CIGS
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST...SALINAS VALLEY AND MANY FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THEY
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR/VFR AND THERE WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT -RA OR DZ...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TERRAIN.

LAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT VFR
CIGS WILL BECOME SCT DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS
RETURN THIS EVENING MAY DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 03Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. GENERALLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED
FOR THE SITE TODAY. TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
IS LOWER CERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS
MORNING WINDS ARE NEAR TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED. LOCAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 232030
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING WARMING AWAY FROM THE COAST
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. THE BROAD TROUGH CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL UTAH AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND MOVING
SOUTH. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT AND DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CLOUD
FORECAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THE BEACHES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...A DEEP MOIST LAYER NEAR 7500 FEET OVER THE REGION
CONTINUES A LOW CONFIDENCE CLOUD FORECAST AS THE STUBBORN
MOIST LAYER PLAYS TRICKS ON THE MARINE INVERSION. DESPITE A VERY
VISIBLE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BIGHT THIS MORNING...CLOUDS STILL NEVER FILLED IN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. AS THE MORNING...SUNLIGHT HAS HIT THE LAND MASS
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY
SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA DROPS
SOUTH TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE. AN EARLY RETURN OF THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS SHOULD EXPECTED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS
SOME OMEGA VALUES EXIST IN NAM TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. DRIZZLE MAY
BE ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS
ADDED FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THROUGH AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAN GABRIEL RANGE. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND UPSLOPES INTO THE
SAN GABRIELS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE
REGION. AN UPDATE TO FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE
SE. SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

LONG TERM... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1800Z...

AT 1210Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT LAX.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CIGS
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST...SALINAS VALLEY AND MANY FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THEY
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR/VFR AND THERE WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT -RA OR DZ...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TERRAIN.

LAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT VFR
CIGS WILL BECOME SCT DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS
RETURN THIS EVENING MAY DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 03Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. GENERALLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED
FOR THE SITE TODAY. TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
IS LOWER CERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS
MORNING WINDS ARE NEAR TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED. LOCAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 232030
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING WARMING AWAY FROM THE COAST
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. THE BROAD TROUGH CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL UTAH AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND MOVING
SOUTH. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT AND DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CLOUD
FORECAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THE BEACHES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...A DEEP MOIST LAYER NEAR 7500 FEET OVER THE REGION
CONTINUES A LOW CONFIDENCE CLOUD FORECAST AS THE STUBBORN
MOIST LAYER PLAYS TRICKS ON THE MARINE INVERSION. DESPITE A VERY
VISIBLE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BIGHT THIS MORNING...CLOUDS STILL NEVER FILLED IN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. AS THE MORNING...SUNLIGHT HAS HIT THE LAND MASS
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY
SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA DROPS
SOUTH TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE. AN EARLY RETURN OF THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS SHOULD EXPECTED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS
SOME OMEGA VALUES EXIST IN NAM TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. DRIZZLE MAY
BE ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS
ADDED FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THROUGH AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAN GABRIEL RANGE. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND UPSLOPES INTO THE
SAN GABRIELS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE
REGION. AN UPDATE TO FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE
SE. SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

LONG TERM... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1800Z...

AT 1210Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT LAX.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CIGS
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST...SALINAS VALLEY AND MANY FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THEY
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR/VFR AND THERE WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT -RA OR DZ...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TERRAIN.

LAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT VFR
CIGS WILL BECOME SCT DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS
RETURN THIS EVENING MAY DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 03Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. GENERALLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED
FOR THE SITE TODAY. TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
IS LOWER CERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS
MORNING WINDS ARE NEAR TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED. LOCAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 232030
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING WARMING AWAY FROM THE COAST
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. THE BROAD TROUGH CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL UTAH AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND MOVING
SOUTH. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT AND DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CLOUD
FORECAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THE BEACHES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...A DEEP MOIST LAYER NEAR 7500 FEET OVER THE REGION
CONTINUES A LOW CONFIDENCE CLOUD FORECAST AS THE STUBBORN
MOIST LAYER PLAYS TRICKS ON THE MARINE INVERSION. DESPITE A VERY
VISIBLE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BIGHT THIS MORNING...CLOUDS STILL NEVER FILLED IN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. AS THE MORNING...SUNLIGHT HAS HIT THE LAND MASS
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY
SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA DROPS
SOUTH TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE. AN EARLY RETURN OF THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS SHOULD EXPECTED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS
SOME OMEGA VALUES EXIST IN NAM TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. DRIZZLE MAY
BE ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS
ADDED FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THROUGH AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAN GABRIEL RANGE. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND UPSLOPES INTO THE
SAN GABRIELS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE
REGION. AN UPDATE TO FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE
SE. SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

LONG TERM... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1800Z...

AT 1210Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT LAX.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CIGS
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST...SALINAS VALLEY AND MANY FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THEY
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR/VFR AND THERE WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT -RA OR DZ...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TERRAIN.

LAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT VFR
CIGS WILL BECOME SCT DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS
RETURN THIS EVENING MAY DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 03Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. GENERALLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED
FOR THE SITE TODAY. TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
IS LOWER CERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS
MORNING WINDS ARE NEAR TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED. LOCAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 231812
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1008 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING WARMING AWAY FROM THE COAST
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. THE BROAD TROUGH CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL UTAH AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND MOVING
SOUTH. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT AND DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CLOUD
FORECAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THE BEACHES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...A DEEP MOIST LAYER NEAR 7500 FEET OVER THE REGION
CONTINUES A LOW CONFIDENCE CLOUD FORECAST AS THE STUBBORN
MOIST LAYER PLAYS TRICKS ON THE MARINE INVERSION. DESPITE A VERY
VISIBLE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BIGHT THIS MORNING...CLOUDS STILL NEVER FILLED IN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. AS THE MORNING...SUNLIGHT HAS HIT THE LAND MASS
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY
SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA DROPS
SOUTH TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE. AN EARLY RETURN OF THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS SHOULD EXPECTED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS
SOME OMEGA VALUES EXIST IN NAM TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. DRIZZLE MAY
BE ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS
ADDED FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THROUGH AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAN GABRIEL RANGE. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND UPSLOPES INTO THE
SAN GABRIELS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE
REGION. AN UPDATE TO FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE
SE. SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

LONG TERM... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1200Z...

AT 1210Z...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS 2900 FEET DEEP WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 4.5 DEGREES C NEAR LAX.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CIGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...SALINAS VALLEY EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
AND BECOME SCT TO BKN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR
AND THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT -RA OR DZ...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE TERRAIN.

LAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO LIFT THROUGH 19Z. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BECOME SCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING MAY
DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 03Z.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VARIABLE CIGS MAY
AFFECT THE SITE TODAY...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR. TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS LOWER CERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS
MORNING WINDS ARE NEAR TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED. LOCAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 231812
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1008 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING WARMING AWAY FROM THE COAST
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. THE BROAD TROUGH CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL UTAH AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND MOVING
SOUTH. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT AND DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CLOUD
FORECAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THE BEACHES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...A DEEP MOIST LAYER NEAR 7500 FEET OVER THE REGION
CONTINUES A LOW CONFIDENCE CLOUD FORECAST AS THE STUBBORN
MOIST LAYER PLAYS TRICKS ON THE MARINE INVERSION. DESPITE A VERY
VISIBLE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BIGHT THIS MORNING...CLOUDS STILL NEVER FILLED IN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. AS THE MORNING...SUNLIGHT HAS HIT THE LAND MASS
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY
SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA DROPS
SOUTH TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE. AN EARLY RETURN OF THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS SHOULD EXPECTED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS
SOME OMEGA VALUES EXIST IN NAM TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. DRIZZLE MAY
BE ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS
ADDED FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THROUGH AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAN GABRIEL RANGE. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND UPSLOPES INTO THE
SAN GABRIELS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE
REGION. AN UPDATE TO FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE
SE. SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

LONG TERM... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1200Z...

AT 1210Z...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS 2900 FEET DEEP WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 4.5 DEGREES C NEAR LAX.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CIGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...SALINAS VALLEY EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
AND BECOME SCT TO BKN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR
AND THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT -RA OR DZ...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE TERRAIN.

LAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO LIFT THROUGH 19Z. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BECOME SCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING MAY
DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 03Z.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VARIABLE CIGS MAY
AFFECT THE SITE TODAY...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR. TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS LOWER CERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS
MORNING WINDS ARE NEAR TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED. LOCAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 231812
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1008 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING WARMING AWAY FROM THE COAST
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. THE BROAD TROUGH CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL UTAH AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND MOVING
SOUTH. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT AND DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CLOUD
FORECAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THE BEACHES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...A DEEP MOIST LAYER NEAR 7500 FEET OVER THE REGION
CONTINUES A LOW CONFIDENCE CLOUD FORECAST AS THE STUBBORN
MOIST LAYER PLAYS TRICKS ON THE MARINE INVERSION. DESPITE A VERY
VISIBLE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BIGHT THIS MORNING...CLOUDS STILL NEVER FILLED IN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. AS THE MORNING...SUNLIGHT HAS HIT THE LAND MASS
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY
SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA DROPS
SOUTH TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE. AN EARLY RETURN OF THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS SHOULD EXPECTED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS
SOME OMEGA VALUES EXIST IN NAM TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. DRIZZLE MAY
BE ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS
ADDED FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THROUGH AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAN GABRIEL RANGE. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND UPSLOPES INTO THE
SAN GABRIELS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE
REGION. AN UPDATE TO FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE
SE. SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

LONG TERM... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1200Z...

AT 1210Z...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS 2900 FEET DEEP WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 4.5 DEGREES C NEAR LAX.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CIGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...SALINAS VALLEY EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
AND BECOME SCT TO BKN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR
AND THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT -RA OR DZ...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE TERRAIN.

LAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO LIFT THROUGH 19Z. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BECOME SCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING MAY
DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 03Z.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VARIABLE CIGS MAY
AFFECT THE SITE TODAY...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR. TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS LOWER CERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS
MORNING WINDS ARE NEAR TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED. LOCAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 231801
AFDLOX

COASTAL WEATHER OBSERVATIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1000 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ID   WX VSB   WIND      WAVE   SEA  AIR  REMARKS    STATION NAME
P44  PC10   / SW05    / 0211 / 60 / 72 / SW/MX3     SANTA BARBARA HBR
L79  C10    / SW06    / 0208 / 56 / 60 / W SWL      CHANNEL ISLANDS HBR
L27  PC10   / E03     / FLAT / 63 / 63 /            AVALON HARBOR
1L2         / W05     /      / 60 /    /            SANTA MONICA PIER
4L7  PC10   / SE06    / 0114 / 62 / 72 / SW/MX3     HERMOSA BEACH
L14  PC10   / S05     / 0112 / 60 / 68 / SW SWL     CABRILLO BEACH





000
FXUS66 KLOX 231801
AFDLOX

COASTAL WEATHER OBSERVATIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1000 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ID   WX VSB   WIND      WAVE   SEA  AIR  REMARKS    STATION NAME
P44  PC10   / SW05    / 0211 / 60 / 72 / SW/MX3     SANTA BARBARA HBR
L79  C10    / SW06    / 0208 / 56 / 60 / W SWL      CHANNEL ISLANDS HBR
L27  PC10   / E03     / FLAT / 63 / 63 /            AVALON HARBOR
1L2         / W05     /      / 60 /    /            SANTA MONICA PIER
4L7  PC10   / SE06    / 0114 / 62 / 72 / SW/MX3     HERMOSA BEACH
L14  PC10   / S05     / 0112 / 60 / 68 / SW SWL     CABRILLO BEACH




000
FXUS66 KLOX 231709
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1008 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING WARMING AWAY FROM THE COAST
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. THE BROAD TROUGH CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL UTAH AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND MOVING
SOUTH. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT AND DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CLOUD
FORECAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THE BEACHES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...A DEEP MOIST LAYER NEAR 7500 FEET OVER THE REGION
CONTINUES A LOW CONFIDENCE CLOUD FORECAST AS THE STUBBORN
MOIST LAYER PLAYS TRICKS ON THE MARINE INVERSION. DESPITE A VERY
VISIBLE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BIGHT THIS MORNING...CLOUDS STILL NEVER FILLED IN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. AS THE MORNING...SUNLIGHT HAS HIT THE LAND MASS
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY
SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA DROPS
SOUTH TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE. AN EARLY RETURN OF THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS SHOULD EXPECTED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS
SOME OMEGA VALUES EXIST IN NAM TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. DRIZZLE MAY
BE ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS
ADDED FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THROUGH AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAN GABRIEL RANGE. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND UPSLOPES INTO THE
SAN GABRIELS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE
REGION. AN UPDATE TO FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE
SE. SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

LONG TERM... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1200Z...

AT 1210Z...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS 2900 FEET DEEP WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 4.5 DEGREES C NEAR LAX.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CIGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...SALINAS VALLEY EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
AND BECOME SCT TO BKN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR
AND THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT -RA OR DZ...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE TERRAIN.

LAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO LIFT THROUGH 19Z. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BECOME SCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING MAY
DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 03Z.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VARIABLE CIGS MAY
AFFECT THE SITE TODAY...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR. TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS LOWER CERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS
MORNING WINDS ARE NEAR TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED. LOCAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 231709
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1008 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING WARMING AWAY FROM THE COAST
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. THE BROAD TROUGH CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL UTAH AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND MOVING
SOUTH. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT AND DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CLOUD
FORECAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THE BEACHES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...A DEEP MOIST LAYER NEAR 7500 FEET OVER THE REGION
CONTINUES A LOW CONFIDENCE CLOUD FORECAST AS THE STUBBORN
MOIST LAYER PLAYS TRICKS ON THE MARINE INVERSION. DESPITE A VERY
VISIBLE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BIGHT THIS MORNING...CLOUDS STILL NEVER FILLED IN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. AS THE MORNING...SUNLIGHT HAS HIT THE LAND MASS
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY
SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA DROPS
SOUTH TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE. AN EARLY RETURN OF THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS SHOULD EXPECTED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS
SOME OMEGA VALUES EXIST IN NAM TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. DRIZZLE MAY
BE ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS
ADDED FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THROUGH AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAN GABRIEL RANGE. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND UPSLOPES INTO THE
SAN GABRIELS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE
REGION. AN UPDATE TO FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE
SE. SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

LONG TERM... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1200Z...

AT 1210Z...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS 2900 FEET DEEP WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 4.5 DEGREES C NEAR LAX.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CIGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...SALINAS VALLEY EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
AND BECOME SCT TO BKN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR
AND THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT -RA OR DZ...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE TERRAIN.

LAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO LIFT THROUGH 19Z. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BECOME SCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING MAY
DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 03Z.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VARIABLE CIGS MAY
AFFECT THE SITE TODAY...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR. TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS LOWER CERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS
MORNING WINDS ARE NEAR TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED. LOCAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 231709
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1008 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING WARMING AWAY FROM THE COAST
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. THE BROAD TROUGH CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL UTAH AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND MOVING
SOUTH. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT AND DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CLOUD
FORECAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THE BEACHES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...A DEEP MOIST LAYER NEAR 7500 FEET OVER THE REGION
CONTINUES A LOW CONFIDENCE CLOUD FORECAST AS THE STUBBORN
MOIST LAYER PLAYS TRICKS ON THE MARINE INVERSION. DESPITE A VERY
VISIBLE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BIGHT THIS MORNING...CLOUDS STILL NEVER FILLED IN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. AS THE MORNING...SUNLIGHT HAS HIT THE LAND MASS
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY
SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA DROPS
SOUTH TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE. AN EARLY RETURN OF THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS SHOULD EXPECTED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS
SOME OMEGA VALUES EXIST IN NAM TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. DRIZZLE MAY
BE ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS
ADDED FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THROUGH AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAN GABRIEL RANGE. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND UPSLOPES INTO THE
SAN GABRIELS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE
REGION. AN UPDATE TO FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE
SE. SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

LONG TERM... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1200Z...

AT 1210Z...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS 2900 FEET DEEP WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 4.5 DEGREES C NEAR LAX.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CIGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...SALINAS VALLEY EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
AND BECOME SCT TO BKN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR
AND THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT -RA OR DZ...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE TERRAIN.

LAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO LIFT THROUGH 19Z. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BECOME SCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING MAY
DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 03Z.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VARIABLE CIGS MAY
AFFECT THE SITE TODAY...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR. TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS LOWER CERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS
MORNING WINDS ARE NEAR TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED. LOCAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 231709
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1008 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING WARMING AWAY FROM THE COAST
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. THE BROAD TROUGH CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL UTAH AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND MOVING
SOUTH. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT AND DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CLOUD
FORECAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THE BEACHES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...A DEEP MOIST LAYER NEAR 7500 FEET OVER THE REGION
CONTINUES A LOW CONFIDENCE CLOUD FORECAST AS THE STUBBORN
MOIST LAYER PLAYS TRICKS ON THE MARINE INVERSION. DESPITE A VERY
VISIBLE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BIGHT THIS MORNING...CLOUDS STILL NEVER FILLED IN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. AS THE MORNING...SUNLIGHT HAS HIT THE LAND MASS
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY
SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA DROPS
SOUTH TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE. AN EARLY RETURN OF THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS SHOULD EXPECTED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS
SOME OMEGA VALUES EXIST IN NAM TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. DRIZZLE MAY
BE ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS
ADDED FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THROUGH AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAN GABRIEL RANGE. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND UPSLOPES INTO THE
SAN GABRIELS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE
REGION. AN UPDATE TO FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE
SE. SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

LONG TERM... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1200Z...

AT 1210Z...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS 2900 FEET DEEP WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 4.5 DEGREES C NEAR LAX.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CIGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...SALINAS VALLEY EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
AND BECOME SCT TO BKN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR
AND THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT -RA OR DZ...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE TERRAIN.

LAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO LIFT THROUGH 19Z. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BECOME SCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING MAY
DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 03Z.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VARIABLE CIGS MAY
AFFECT THE SITE TODAY...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR. TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS LOWER CERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS
MORNING WINDS ARE NEAR TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED. LOCAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 231414
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
700 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... THE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WITH...WITH A WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
IN COASTAL AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY... AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION TODAY...SO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...SOME STRATOCU WILL LIKELY FORM. IN GENERAL...SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED ON FRI...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS. STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT WINDS SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA TODAY...ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THEN IT WILL BE LOCATED SE OF THE
REGION BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE WRF IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS OR THE EC.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ON ALL MODELS IS VERY SIMILAR... KEEPING
THE CENTER ACROSS NERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OWING TO ITS
TRACK ACROSS LAND...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...SO
HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST. THAT HAVING BEEN STATED...CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS L.A. COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY...AND THROUGH THE I-5
CORRIDOR.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE SE. SOME
HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1200Z...

AT 1210Z...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS 2900 FEET DEEP WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 4.5 DEGREES C NEAR LAX.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CIGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...SALINAS VALLEY EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
AND BECOME SCT TO BKN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR
AND THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT -RA OR DZ...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE TERRAIN.

LAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO LIFT THROUGH 19Z. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BECOME SCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING MAY
DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 03Z.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VARIABLE CIGS MAY
AFFECT THE SITE TODAY...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR. TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS LOWER CERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...23/300 AM.

OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
MORNING WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25
TO 30 KNOTS. LOCAL SCA GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 231414
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
700 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... THE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WITH...WITH A WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
IN COASTAL AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY... AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION TODAY...SO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...SOME STRATOCU WILL LIKELY FORM. IN GENERAL...SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED ON FRI...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS. STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT WINDS SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA TODAY...ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THEN IT WILL BE LOCATED SE OF THE
REGION BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE WRF IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS OR THE EC.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ON ALL MODELS IS VERY SIMILAR... KEEPING
THE CENTER ACROSS NERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OWING TO ITS
TRACK ACROSS LAND...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...SO
HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST. THAT HAVING BEEN STATED...CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS L.A. COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY...AND THROUGH THE I-5
CORRIDOR.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE SE. SOME
HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1200Z...

AT 1210Z...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS 2900 FEET DEEP WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 4.5 DEGREES C NEAR LAX.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CIGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...SALINAS VALLEY EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
AND BECOME SCT TO BKN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR
AND THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT -RA OR DZ...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE TERRAIN.

LAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO LIFT THROUGH 19Z. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BECOME SCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING MAY
DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 03Z.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VARIABLE CIGS MAY
AFFECT THE SITE TODAY...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR. TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS LOWER CERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...23/300 AM.

OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
MORNING WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25
TO 30 KNOTS. LOCAL SCA GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 231414
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
700 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... THE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WITH...WITH A WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
IN COASTAL AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY... AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION TODAY...SO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...SOME STRATOCU WILL LIKELY FORM. IN GENERAL...SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED ON FRI...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS. STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT WINDS SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA TODAY...ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THEN IT WILL BE LOCATED SE OF THE
REGION BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE WRF IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS OR THE EC.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ON ALL MODELS IS VERY SIMILAR... KEEPING
THE CENTER ACROSS NERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OWING TO ITS
TRACK ACROSS LAND...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...SO
HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST. THAT HAVING BEEN STATED...CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS L.A. COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY...AND THROUGH THE I-5
CORRIDOR.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE SE. SOME
HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1200Z...

AT 1210Z...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS 2900 FEET DEEP WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 4.5 DEGREES C NEAR LAX.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CIGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...SALINAS VALLEY EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
AND BECOME SCT TO BKN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR
AND THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT -RA OR DZ...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE TERRAIN.

LAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO LIFT THROUGH 19Z. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BECOME SCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING MAY
DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 03Z.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VARIABLE CIGS MAY
AFFECT THE SITE TODAY...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR. TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS LOWER CERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...23/300 AM.

OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
MORNING WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25
TO 30 KNOTS. LOCAL SCA GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 231414
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
700 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... THE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WITH...WITH A WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
IN COASTAL AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY... AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION TODAY...SO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...SOME STRATOCU WILL LIKELY FORM. IN GENERAL...SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED ON FRI...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS. STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT WINDS SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA TODAY...ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THEN IT WILL BE LOCATED SE OF THE
REGION BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE WRF IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS OR THE EC.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ON ALL MODELS IS VERY SIMILAR... KEEPING
THE CENTER ACROSS NERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OWING TO ITS
TRACK ACROSS LAND...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...SO
HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST. THAT HAVING BEEN STATED...CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS L.A. COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY...AND THROUGH THE I-5
CORRIDOR.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE SE. SOME
HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1200Z...

AT 1210Z...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS 2900 FEET DEEP WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 4.5 DEGREES C NEAR LAX.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CIGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...SALINAS VALLEY EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
AND BECOME SCT TO BKN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR
AND THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT -RA OR DZ...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE TERRAIN.

LAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO LIFT THROUGH 19Z. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BECOME SCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING MAY
DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 03Z.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VARIABLE CIGS MAY
AFFECT THE SITE TODAY...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR. TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS LOWER CERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...23/300 AM.

OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
MORNING WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25
TO 30 KNOTS. LOCAL SCA GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 231110
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
339 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... THE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WITH...WITH A WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
IN COASTAL AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY... AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION TODAY...SO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...SOME STRATOCU WILL LIKELY FORM. IN GENERAL...SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED ON FRI...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS. STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT WINDS SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA TODAY...ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THEN IT WILL BE LOCATED SE OF THE
REGION BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE WRF IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS OR THE EC.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ON ALL MODELS IS VERY SIMILAR... KEEPING
THE CENTER ACROSS NERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OWING TO ITS
TRACK ACROSS LAND...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...SO
HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST. THAT HAVING BEEN STATED...CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS L.A. COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY...AND THROUGH THE I-5
CORRIDOR.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE SE. SOME
HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1145Z...

WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25
TO 30 KNOTS. LOCAL SCA GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 231110
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
339 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... THE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WITH...WITH A WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
IN COASTAL AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY... AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION TODAY...SO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...SOME STRATOCU WILL LIKELY FORM. IN GENERAL...SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED ON FRI...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS. STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT WINDS SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA TODAY...ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THEN IT WILL BE LOCATED SE OF THE
REGION BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE WRF IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS OR THE EC.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ON ALL MODELS IS VERY SIMILAR... KEEPING
THE CENTER ACROSS NERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OWING TO ITS
TRACK ACROSS LAND...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...SO
HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST. THAT HAVING BEEN STATED...CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS L.A. COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY...AND THROUGH THE I-5
CORRIDOR.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE SE. SOME
HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1145Z...

WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25
TO 30 KNOTS. LOCAL SCA GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 231110
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
339 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... THE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WITH...WITH A WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
IN COASTAL AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY... AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION TODAY...SO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...SOME STRATOCU WILL LIKELY FORM. IN GENERAL...SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED ON FRI...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS. STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT WINDS SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA TODAY...ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THEN IT WILL BE LOCATED SE OF THE
REGION BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE WRF IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS OR THE EC.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ON ALL MODELS IS VERY SIMILAR... KEEPING
THE CENTER ACROSS NERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OWING TO ITS
TRACK ACROSS LAND...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...SO
HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST. THAT HAVING BEEN STATED...CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS L.A. COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY...AND THROUGH THE I-5
CORRIDOR.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE SE. SOME
HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1145Z...

WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25
TO 30 KNOTS. LOCAL SCA GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 231110
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
339 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... THE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WITH...WITH A WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
IN COASTAL AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY... AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION TODAY...SO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...SOME STRATOCU WILL LIKELY FORM. IN GENERAL...SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED ON FRI...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS. STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT WINDS SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA TODAY...ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THEN IT WILL BE LOCATED SE OF THE
REGION BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE WRF IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS OR THE EC.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ON ALL MODELS IS VERY SIMILAR... KEEPING
THE CENTER ACROSS NERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OWING TO ITS
TRACK ACROSS LAND...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...SO
HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST. THAT HAVING BEEN STATED...CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS L.A. COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY...AND THROUGH THE I-5
CORRIDOR.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE SE. SOME
HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1145Z...

WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25
TO 30 KNOTS. LOCAL SCA GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 230333
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A COUPLE DEGREES BY
MONDAY...YET STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO
ARIZONA TONIGHT. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
FILLING IN QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. 00Z NAM MODEL CROSS SECTION SHOWING MOIST LAYER AS
DEEP AS 10,000 FEET ACROSS LOS ANGELES COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH
ACROSS THE NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN
GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. LOCALLY BREEZY
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS TONIGHT WITH THE NORTH FLOW BUT BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE QUITE A
BIT OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
INTERIOR CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL EAST OF OUR AREA SO REALLY
NOT MUCH RISK FOR ANY PRECIP LOCALLY UNLESS IT DRIFTS FARTHER WEST,
BUT LIKELY SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MTNS AND A DELAY IN OUR WARMUP.
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS A SOLID MARINE LYR RETURN SUNDAY MORNING BUT
GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY AND PROBABLY JUST MINIMAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING AT BEST IT`S HARD TO ENVISION MUCH CHANGE IN THE
MARINE LYR PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND (IE. PATCHY/RANDOM).

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING MONDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING. MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE RIDGE BUT ALL AGREE THAT AT LEAST MINOR WARMING IS EXPECTED
MONDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL WARMING TO HELP SUPPORT
A MORE SOLID MARINE LYR, BUT THINGS HAVEN`T GONE OUR WAY IN THAT
DEPARTMENT LATELY SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A LITTLE DRY TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE WEST
COAST TUE/WED, WHICH LIKELY WON`T DO MUCH OTHER THAN MAINTAIN THE
STATUS QUO. BY THU, THOUGH, THERE IS SOLID MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH IN
THE 12Z RUNS AND EARLIER RUNS, THAT WE WILL BE SEEING A FAIRLY
STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING THU/FRI FOR MUCH BETTER WARMING AND TEMPS
FINALLY CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST
CARRY INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...22/2345Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT LAX.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
HAS GENERATED SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER CLEARING NEAR THE COAST.
ONCE SUN GOES DOWN...STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH AND TIMING OF
STRATUS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO LACK OF MARINE
INVERSION. FOR AREAS WHERE CIGS DEVELOP...SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN MVFR
TO VFR CATGEGORY. WITH DEEP MOIST LAYER CONTINUING STILL A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS LA COUNTY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH PERIOD AT KWJF AND KPMD.

LAX...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND HEIGHT
OF CEILING TONIGHT. WHEN CIGS DEVELOP AT KLAX...MOSTLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY WITH 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR
CATEGORY. STILL A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO DEEP MOIST LAYER IN PLACE.


KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS REMAINING THROUGH EVENING
HOURS...THEN MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  STILL A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO
DEEP MOIST LAYER IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...22/900 PM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25
TO 30 KNOTS. LOCAL SCA GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS..B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 230333
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A COUPLE DEGREES BY
MONDAY...YET STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO
ARIZONA TONIGHT. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
FILLING IN QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. 00Z NAM MODEL CROSS SECTION SHOWING MOIST LAYER AS
DEEP AS 10,000 FEET ACROSS LOS ANGELES COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH
ACROSS THE NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN
GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. LOCALLY BREEZY
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS TONIGHT WITH THE NORTH FLOW BUT BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE QUITE A
BIT OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
INTERIOR CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL EAST OF OUR AREA SO REALLY
NOT MUCH RISK FOR ANY PRECIP LOCALLY UNLESS IT DRIFTS FARTHER WEST,
BUT LIKELY SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MTNS AND A DELAY IN OUR WARMUP.
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS A SOLID MARINE LYR RETURN SUNDAY MORNING BUT
GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY AND PROBABLY JUST MINIMAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING AT BEST IT`S HARD TO ENVISION MUCH CHANGE IN THE
MARINE LYR PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND (IE. PATCHY/RANDOM).

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING MONDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING. MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE RIDGE BUT ALL AGREE THAT AT LEAST MINOR WARMING IS EXPECTED
MONDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL WARMING TO HELP SUPPORT
A MORE SOLID MARINE LYR, BUT THINGS HAVEN`T GONE OUR WAY IN THAT
DEPARTMENT LATELY SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A LITTLE DRY TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE WEST
COAST TUE/WED, WHICH LIKELY WON`T DO MUCH OTHER THAN MAINTAIN THE
STATUS QUO. BY THU, THOUGH, THERE IS SOLID MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH IN
THE 12Z RUNS AND EARLIER RUNS, THAT WE WILL BE SEEING A FAIRLY
STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING THU/FRI FOR MUCH BETTER WARMING AND TEMPS
FINALLY CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST
CARRY INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...22/2345Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT LAX.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
HAS GENERATED SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER CLEARING NEAR THE COAST.
ONCE SUN GOES DOWN...STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH AND TIMING OF
STRATUS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO LACK OF MARINE
INVERSION. FOR AREAS WHERE CIGS DEVELOP...SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN MVFR
TO VFR CATGEGORY. WITH DEEP MOIST LAYER CONTINUING STILL A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS LA COUNTY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH PERIOD AT KWJF AND KPMD.

LAX...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND HEIGHT
OF CEILING TONIGHT. WHEN CIGS DEVELOP AT KLAX...MOSTLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY WITH 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR
CATEGORY. STILL A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO DEEP MOIST LAYER IN PLACE.


KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS REMAINING THROUGH EVENING
HOURS...THEN MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  STILL A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO
DEEP MOIST LAYER IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...22/900 PM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25
TO 30 KNOTS. LOCAL SCA GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS..B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 230000
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
455 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE MEMORIAL WEEKEND. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A PERSISTANT
OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SOME VALLEYS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK...BUT AREAS FARTHER INLAND WILL HAVE FAIR SKIES. A HIGH
WILL WARM THE END OF WEEK TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON CLEARING AT
THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO AZ,
LEAVING SOME MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHERLY FLOW, MOSTLY
OVER THE MTNS. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER IN OUR AREA AND
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD ALLOW SOME SPILL OVER INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS, BUT AGAIN,
NOT MUCH. LOCALLY BREEZY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING WITH
THE NORTH FLOW BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER ON
TAP FOR SATURDAY. LOTS OF LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE THOUGH SO
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS AND UPSLOPE
AREAS OF ERN LA COUNTY. STILL NOT ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION FOR A SOLID
MARINE LYR, SO PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD SUFFICE IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS
A BIT WARMER BUT STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL.

MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
INTERIOR CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL EAST OF OUR AREA SO REALLY
NOT MUCH RISK FOR ANY PRECIP LOCALLY UNLESS IT DRIFTS FARTHER WEST,
BUT LIKELY SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MTNS AND A DELAY IN OUR WARMUP.
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS A SOLID MARINE LYR RETURN SUNDAY MORNING BUT
GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY AND PROBABLY JUST MINIMAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING AT BEST IT`S HARD TO ENVISION MUCH CHANGE IN THE
MARINE LYR PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND (IE. PATCHY/RANDOM).

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING MONDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING. MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE RIDGE BUT ALL AGREE THAT AT LEAST MINOR WARMING IS EXPECTED
MONDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL WARMING TO HELP SUPPORT
A MORE SOLID MARINE LYR, BUT THINGS HAVEN`T GONE OUR WAY IN THAT
DEPARTMENT LATELY SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A LITTLE DRY TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE WEST
COAST TUE/WED, WHICH LIKELY WON`T DO MUCH OTHER THAN MAINTAIN THE
STATUS QUO. BY THU, THOUGH, THERE IS SOLID MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH IN
THE 12Z RUNS AND EARLIER RUNS, THAT WE WILL BE SEEING A FAIRLY
STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING THU/FRI FOR MUCH BETTER WARMING AND TEMPS
FINALLY CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST
CARRY INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...22/2345Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT LAX.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
HAS GENERATED SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER CLEARING NEAR THE COAST.
ONCE SUN GOES DOWN...STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH AND TIMING OF
STRATUS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO LACK OF MARINE
INVERSION. FOR AREAS WHERE CIGS DEVELOP...SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN MVFR
TO VFR CATGEGORY. WITH DEEP MOIST LAYER CONTINUING STILL A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS LA COUNTY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH PERIOD AT KWJF AND KPMD.

LAX...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND HEIGHT
OF CEILING TONIGHT. WHEN CIGS DEVELOP AT KLAX...MOSTLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY WITH 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR
CATEGORY. STILL A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO DEEP MOIST LAYER IN PLACE.


KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS REMAINING THROUGH EVENING
HOURS...THEN MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  STILL A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO
DEEP MOIST LAYER IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...22/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. LOCAL SCA GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ655
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A 40% CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED.

THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION AND ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REFUGIO OIL SPILL
INCIDENT WITH WIND WAVES UP TO 4 FEET. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH
OR EXCEED 25 KNOTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 230000
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
455 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE MEMORIAL WEEKEND. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A PERSISTANT
OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SOME VALLEYS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK...BUT AREAS FARTHER INLAND WILL HAVE FAIR SKIES. A HIGH
WILL WARM THE END OF WEEK TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON CLEARING AT
THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO AZ,
LEAVING SOME MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHERLY FLOW, MOSTLY
OVER THE MTNS. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER IN OUR AREA AND
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD ALLOW SOME SPILL OVER INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS, BUT AGAIN,
NOT MUCH. LOCALLY BREEZY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING WITH
THE NORTH FLOW BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER ON
TAP FOR SATURDAY. LOTS OF LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE THOUGH SO
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS AND UPSLOPE
AREAS OF ERN LA COUNTY. STILL NOT ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION FOR A SOLID
MARINE LYR, SO PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD SUFFICE IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS
A BIT WARMER BUT STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL.

MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
INTERIOR CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL EAST OF OUR AREA SO REALLY
NOT MUCH RISK FOR ANY PRECIP LOCALLY UNLESS IT DRIFTS FARTHER WEST,
BUT LIKELY SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MTNS AND A DELAY IN OUR WARMUP.
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS A SOLID MARINE LYR RETURN SUNDAY MORNING BUT
GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY AND PROBABLY JUST MINIMAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING AT BEST IT`S HARD TO ENVISION MUCH CHANGE IN THE
MARINE LYR PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND (IE. PATCHY/RANDOM).

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING MONDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING. MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE RIDGE BUT ALL AGREE THAT AT LEAST MINOR WARMING IS EXPECTED
MONDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL WARMING TO HELP SUPPORT
A MORE SOLID MARINE LYR, BUT THINGS HAVEN`T GONE OUR WAY IN THAT
DEPARTMENT LATELY SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A LITTLE DRY TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE WEST
COAST TUE/WED, WHICH LIKELY WON`T DO MUCH OTHER THAN MAINTAIN THE
STATUS QUO. BY THU, THOUGH, THERE IS SOLID MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH IN
THE 12Z RUNS AND EARLIER RUNS, THAT WE WILL BE SEEING A FAIRLY
STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING THU/FRI FOR MUCH BETTER WARMING AND TEMPS
FINALLY CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST
CARRY INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...22/2345Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT LAX.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
HAS GENERATED SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER CLEARING NEAR THE COAST.
ONCE SUN GOES DOWN...STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH AND TIMING OF
STRATUS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO LACK OF MARINE
INVERSION. FOR AREAS WHERE CIGS DEVELOP...SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN MVFR
TO VFR CATGEGORY. WITH DEEP MOIST LAYER CONTINUING STILL A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS LA COUNTY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH PERIOD AT KWJF AND KPMD.

LAX...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND HEIGHT
OF CEILING TONIGHT. WHEN CIGS DEVELOP AT KLAX...MOSTLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY WITH 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR
CATEGORY. STILL A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO DEEP MOIST LAYER IN PLACE.


KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS REMAINING THROUGH EVENING
HOURS...THEN MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  STILL A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO
DEEP MOIST LAYER IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...22/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. LOCAL SCA GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ655
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A 40% CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED.

THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION AND ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REFUGIO OIL SPILL
INCIDENT WITH WIND WAVES UP TO 4 FEET. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH
OR EXCEED 25 KNOTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 230000
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
455 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE MEMORIAL WEEKEND. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A PERSISTANT
OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SOME VALLEYS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK...BUT AREAS FARTHER INLAND WILL HAVE FAIR SKIES. A HIGH
WILL WARM THE END OF WEEK TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON CLEARING AT
THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO AZ,
LEAVING SOME MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHERLY FLOW, MOSTLY
OVER THE MTNS. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER IN OUR AREA AND
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD ALLOW SOME SPILL OVER INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS, BUT AGAIN,
NOT MUCH. LOCALLY BREEZY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING WITH
THE NORTH FLOW BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER ON
TAP FOR SATURDAY. LOTS OF LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE THOUGH SO
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS AND UPSLOPE
AREAS OF ERN LA COUNTY. STILL NOT ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION FOR A SOLID
MARINE LYR, SO PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD SUFFICE IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS
A BIT WARMER BUT STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL.

MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
INTERIOR CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL EAST OF OUR AREA SO REALLY
NOT MUCH RISK FOR ANY PRECIP LOCALLY UNLESS IT DRIFTS FARTHER WEST,
BUT LIKELY SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MTNS AND A DELAY IN OUR WARMUP.
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS A SOLID MARINE LYR RETURN SUNDAY MORNING BUT
GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY AND PROBABLY JUST MINIMAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING AT BEST IT`S HARD TO ENVISION MUCH CHANGE IN THE
MARINE LYR PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND (IE. PATCHY/RANDOM).

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING MONDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING. MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE RIDGE BUT ALL AGREE THAT AT LEAST MINOR WARMING IS EXPECTED
MONDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL WARMING TO HELP SUPPORT
A MORE SOLID MARINE LYR, BUT THINGS HAVEN`T GONE OUR WAY IN THAT
DEPARTMENT LATELY SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A LITTLE DRY TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE WEST
COAST TUE/WED, WHICH LIKELY WON`T DO MUCH OTHER THAN MAINTAIN THE
STATUS QUO. BY THU, THOUGH, THERE IS SOLID MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH IN
THE 12Z RUNS AND EARLIER RUNS, THAT WE WILL BE SEEING A FAIRLY
STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING THU/FRI FOR MUCH BETTER WARMING AND TEMPS
FINALLY CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST
CARRY INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...22/2345Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT LAX.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
HAS GENERATED SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER CLEARING NEAR THE COAST.
ONCE SUN GOES DOWN...STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH AND TIMING OF
STRATUS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO LACK OF MARINE
INVERSION. FOR AREAS WHERE CIGS DEVELOP...SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN MVFR
TO VFR CATGEGORY. WITH DEEP MOIST LAYER CONTINUING STILL A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS LA COUNTY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH PERIOD AT KWJF AND KPMD.

LAX...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND HEIGHT
OF CEILING TONIGHT. WHEN CIGS DEVELOP AT KLAX...MOSTLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY WITH 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR
CATEGORY. STILL A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO DEEP MOIST LAYER IN PLACE.


KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS REMAINING THROUGH EVENING
HOURS...THEN MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  STILL A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO
DEEP MOIST LAYER IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...22/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. LOCAL SCA GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ655
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A 40% CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED.

THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION AND ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REFUGIO OIL SPILL
INCIDENT WITH WIND WAVES UP TO 4 FEET. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH
OR EXCEED 25 KNOTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 230000
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
455 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE MEMORIAL WEEKEND. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A PERSISTANT
OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SOME VALLEYS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK...BUT AREAS FARTHER INLAND WILL HAVE FAIR SKIES. A HIGH
WILL WARM THE END OF WEEK TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON CLEARING AT
THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO AZ,
LEAVING SOME MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHERLY FLOW, MOSTLY
OVER THE MTNS. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER IN OUR AREA AND
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD ALLOW SOME SPILL OVER INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS, BUT AGAIN,
NOT MUCH. LOCALLY BREEZY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING WITH
THE NORTH FLOW BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER ON
TAP FOR SATURDAY. LOTS OF LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE THOUGH SO
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS AND UPSLOPE
AREAS OF ERN LA COUNTY. STILL NOT ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION FOR A SOLID
MARINE LYR, SO PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD SUFFICE IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS
A BIT WARMER BUT STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL.

MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
INTERIOR CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL EAST OF OUR AREA SO REALLY
NOT MUCH RISK FOR ANY PRECIP LOCALLY UNLESS IT DRIFTS FARTHER WEST,
BUT LIKELY SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MTNS AND A DELAY IN OUR WARMUP.
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS A SOLID MARINE LYR RETURN SUNDAY MORNING BUT
GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY AND PROBABLY JUST MINIMAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING AT BEST IT`S HARD TO ENVISION MUCH CHANGE IN THE
MARINE LYR PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND (IE. PATCHY/RANDOM).

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING MONDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING. MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE RIDGE BUT ALL AGREE THAT AT LEAST MINOR WARMING IS EXPECTED
MONDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL WARMING TO HELP SUPPORT
A MORE SOLID MARINE LYR, BUT THINGS HAVEN`T GONE OUR WAY IN THAT
DEPARTMENT LATELY SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A LITTLE DRY TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE WEST
COAST TUE/WED, WHICH LIKELY WON`T DO MUCH OTHER THAN MAINTAIN THE
STATUS QUO. BY THU, THOUGH, THERE IS SOLID MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH IN
THE 12Z RUNS AND EARLIER RUNS, THAT WE WILL BE SEEING A FAIRLY
STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING THU/FRI FOR MUCH BETTER WARMING AND TEMPS
FINALLY CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST
CARRY INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...22/2345Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT LAX.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
HAS GENERATED SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER CLEARING NEAR THE COAST.
ONCE SUN GOES DOWN...STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH AND TIMING OF
STRATUS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO LACK OF MARINE
INVERSION. FOR AREAS WHERE CIGS DEVELOP...SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN MVFR
TO VFR CATGEGORY. WITH DEEP MOIST LAYER CONTINUING STILL A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS LA COUNTY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH PERIOD AT KWJF AND KPMD.

LAX...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND HEIGHT
OF CEILING TONIGHT. WHEN CIGS DEVELOP AT KLAX...MOSTLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY WITH 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR
CATEGORY. STILL A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO DEEP MOIST LAYER IN PLACE.


KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS REMAINING THROUGH EVENING
HOURS...THEN MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  STILL A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO
DEEP MOIST LAYER IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...22/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. LOCAL SCA GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ655
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A 40% CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED.

THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION AND ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REFUGIO OIL SPILL
INCIDENT WITH WIND WAVES UP TO 4 FEET. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH
OR EXCEED 25 KNOTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




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