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000
FXUS66 KLOX 020648
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...ONSHORE
BREEZES...AND OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES. ANOTHER COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US SUCH WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS WILL GET PUSHED INTO TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
FAIRLY COLD TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL HELP ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY
THEN HOLD THE COURSE ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER
AND FURTHER INLAND STRATUS PUSH TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THIS WILL ALL LEAD
TO A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS INCLUDING THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT SHOULD
STAY UNDER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
EXTENDED MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A WARM UP FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS EARLIER RUNS. THIS IS DUE IN
LARGE PART TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...THAT FORMS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY...STICKING AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AND EVEN
DEEPENING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHILE THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...THIS LOW WILL SOMEWHAT IMPEDE ITS PROGRESS INTO
CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE SHIFT WILL HELP TO FURTHER WEAKEN ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS...HELPING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
WARMUP A LITTLE MORE THAN THEY SHOULD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHANGE. COOLING NOW LOOKS ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A EXTENDED
MODELS DEVELOP A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...

02/0600Z

1300 FOOT MARINE LAYER WILL BRING IFR/MVFR CIGS TO COASTAL AND VLY
TAFS OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIMING BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE IN PLACE AT ALL SITES BY 13Z. ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
CLEARING TIMES WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CLEARING 1 HOUR EARLIER THAN
FCST AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF CLEARING 2 HOURS EARLIER THAN FCST.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN AN EARLY EVENING ARRIVAL OF CIGS TUESDAY EVENING.


KLAX...CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE BY 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
OVC008 CONDS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF 18Z CLEARING AND A 20
PERCENT CHC OF 17Z CLEARING.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUD ARRIVAL TIME AS CLOUDS COULD
ARRIVE ANY TIME BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CIGS.
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 16Z CLEARING TIME.

&&

.MARINE...01/800 PM.
OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING EXTENDED FOR ZONES 673/676
FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...01/800 PM.
A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL (18-20 SECONDS) ORIGINATING FROM THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PEAK FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. ELEVATED SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE SURF HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS HIGH AS WE SAW WITH HURRICANE MARIE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HIGH
SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 6 FEET OR GREATER WILL OCCUR ACROSS
FAVORED SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/KITTELL
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE/BEACHES...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 020648
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...ONSHORE
BREEZES...AND OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES. ANOTHER COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US SUCH WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS WILL GET PUSHED INTO TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
FAIRLY COLD TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL HELP ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY
THEN HOLD THE COURSE ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER
AND FURTHER INLAND STRATUS PUSH TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THIS WILL ALL LEAD
TO A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS INCLUDING THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT SHOULD
STAY UNDER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
EXTENDED MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A WARM UP FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS EARLIER RUNS. THIS IS DUE IN
LARGE PART TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...THAT FORMS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY...STICKING AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AND EVEN
DEEPENING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHILE THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...THIS LOW WILL SOMEWHAT IMPEDE ITS PROGRESS INTO
CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE SHIFT WILL HELP TO FURTHER WEAKEN ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS...HELPING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
WARMUP A LITTLE MORE THAN THEY SHOULD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHANGE. COOLING NOW LOOKS ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A EXTENDED
MODELS DEVELOP A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...

02/0600Z

1300 FOOT MARINE LAYER WILL BRING IFR/MVFR CIGS TO COASTAL AND VLY
TAFS OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIMING BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE IN PLACE AT ALL SITES BY 13Z. ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
CLEARING TIMES WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CLEARING 1 HOUR EARLIER THAN
FCST AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF CLEARING 2 HOURS EARLIER THAN FCST.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN AN EARLY EVENING ARRIVAL OF CIGS TUESDAY EVENING.


KLAX...CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE BY 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
OVC008 CONDS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF 18Z CLEARING AND A 20
PERCENT CHC OF 17Z CLEARING.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUD ARRIVAL TIME AS CLOUDS COULD
ARRIVE ANY TIME BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CIGS.
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 16Z CLEARING TIME.

&&

.MARINE...01/800 PM.
OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING EXTENDED FOR ZONES 673/676
FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...01/800 PM.
A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL (18-20 SECONDS) ORIGINATING FROM THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PEAK FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. ELEVATED SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE SURF HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS HIGH AS WE SAW WITH HURRICANE MARIE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HIGH
SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 6 FEET OR GREATER WILL OCCUR ACROSS
FAVORED SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/KITTELL
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE/BEACHES...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 020311
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...ONSHORE
BREEZES...AND OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES. ANOTHER COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US SUCH WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS WILL GET PUSHED INTO TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
FAIRLY COLD TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL HELP ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY
THEN HOLD THE COURSE ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER
AND FURTHER INLAND STRATUS PUSH TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THIS WILL ALL LEAD
TO A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS INCLUDING THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT SHOULD
STAY UNDER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
EXTENDED MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A WARM UP FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS EARLIER RUNS. THIS IS DUE IN
LARGE PART TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...THAT FORMS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY...STICKING AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AND EVEN
DEEPENING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHILE THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...THIS LOW WILL SOMEWHAT IMPEDE ITS PROGRESS INTO
CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE SHIFT WILL HELP TO FURTHER WEAKEN ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS...HELPING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
WARMUP A LITTLE MORE THAN THEY SHOULD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHANGE. COOLING NOW LOOKS ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A EXTENDED
MODELS DEVELOP A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2345Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CIGS RETURNING TO MOST COASTAL TAF
LOCATIONS BETWEEN 03Z-07Z...THEN SPREADING INTO KBUR AND KVNY AFTER
08Z. MARINE LAYER DEPTH EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2000 FEET AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR LA BASIN. 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS KLAX...KOXR...AND KSBA.


KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS RETURNING TONIGHT.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS ARRIVING MORE THAN 2
HOURS OFF FROM TAF ESTIMATE. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
CIGS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...THEN IFR CIGS
RETURNING AFTER 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS
ARRIVING MORE THAN 2 HOURS OFF FROM TAF ESTIMATE.

&&

.MARINE...01/800 PM.
OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING EXTENDED FOR ZONES 673/676
FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...01/800 PM.
A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL (18-20 SECONDS) ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PEAK FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. ELEVATED SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES DURING THIS
TIME. WHILE THE SURF HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS WE SAW WITH
HURRICANE MARIE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
OF 6 FEET OR GREATER WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAVORED SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 020311
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...ONSHORE
BREEZES...AND OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES. ANOTHER COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US SUCH WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS WILL GET PUSHED INTO TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
FAIRLY COLD TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL HELP ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY
THEN HOLD THE COURSE ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER
AND FURTHER INLAND STRATUS PUSH TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THIS WILL ALL LEAD
TO A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS INCLUDING THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT SHOULD
STAY UNDER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
EXTENDED MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A WARM UP FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS EARLIER RUNS. THIS IS DUE IN
LARGE PART TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...THAT FORMS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY...STICKING AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AND EVEN
DEEPENING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHILE THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...THIS LOW WILL SOMEWHAT IMPEDE ITS PROGRESS INTO
CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE SHIFT WILL HELP TO FURTHER WEAKEN ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS...HELPING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
WARMUP A LITTLE MORE THAN THEY SHOULD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHANGE. COOLING NOW LOOKS ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A EXTENDED
MODELS DEVELOP A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2345Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CIGS RETURNING TO MOST COASTAL TAF
LOCATIONS BETWEEN 03Z-07Z...THEN SPREADING INTO KBUR AND KVNY AFTER
08Z. MARINE LAYER DEPTH EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2000 FEET AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR LA BASIN. 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS KLAX...KOXR...AND KSBA.


KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS RETURNING TONIGHT.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS ARRIVING MORE THAN 2
HOURS OFF FROM TAF ESTIMATE. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
CIGS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...THEN IFR CIGS
RETURNING AFTER 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS
ARRIVING MORE THAN 2 HOURS OFF FROM TAF ESTIMATE.

&&

.MARINE...01/800 PM.
OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING EXTENDED FOR ZONES 673/676
FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...01/800 PM.
A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL (18-20 SECONDS) ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PEAK FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. ELEVATED SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES DURING THIS
TIME. WHILE THE SURF HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS WE SAW WITH
HURRICANE MARIE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
OF 6 FEET OR GREATER WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAVORED SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 012349
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...ONSHORE
BREEZES...AND OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES. ANOTHER COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY...WITH A FEW COASTAL
AREAS SEEING SOME COOLING. STRATUS HUGGING THE CENTRAL COAST IS
POISED FOR AN EARLY EVENING ADVANCEMENT...WHILE GOOD CLEARING SOUTH
OF SANTA BARBARA MEANS CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT OVER LA AND
VENTURA COUNTIES WHEN ANOTHER EDDY STARTS TO SPIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US SUCH WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS WILL GET PUSHED INTO TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
FAIRLY COLD TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL HELP ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY
THEN HOLD THE COURSE ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER
AND FURTHER INLAND STRATUS PUSH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND. GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS INCLUDING
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST UNDER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL
COOL THE AIRMASS...BUT THIS WILL IN TURN WEAKEN THE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS. THESE EFFECTS SHOULD COUNTERACT EACH OTHER FOR LITTLE
CHANGE ON THURSDAY...BUT COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS MIGHT SEE A LITTLE
WARM UP WITH SLIGHTLY LESS STRATUS AND BETTER AFTERNOON CLEARING.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
EXTENDED MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A WARM UP FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS EARLIER RUNS. THIS IS DUE IN
LARGE PART TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...THAT FORMS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY...STICKING AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AND EVEN
DEEPENING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHILE THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...THIS LOW WILL SOMEWHAT IMPEDE ITS PROGRESS INTO
CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE SHIFT WILL HELP TO FURTHER WEAKEN ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS...HELPING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
WARMUP A LITTLE MORE THAN THEY SHOULD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHANGE. COOLING NOW LOOKS ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A EXTENDED
MODELS DEVELOP A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2345Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CIGS RETURNING TO MOST COASTAL TAF
LOCATIONS BETWEEN 03Z-07Z...THEN SPREADING INTO KBUR AND KVNY AFTER
08Z. MARINE LAYER DEPTH EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2000 FEET AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR LA BASIN. 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS KLAX...KOXR...AND KSBA.


KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS RETURNING TONIGHT.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS ARRIVING MORE THAN 2
HOURS OFF FROM TAF ESTIMATE. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
CIGS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...THEN IFR CIGS
RETURNING AFTER 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS
ARRIVING MORE THAN 2 HOURS OFF FROM TAF ESTIMATE.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM.
OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...01/200 PM.
ANOTHER SOUTH SWELL...NOT AS LARGE AS THE LAST ONE...WITH HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...GOMBERG/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 012045
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...ONSHORE
BREEZES...AND OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES. ANOTHER COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY...WITH A FEW COASTAL
AREAS SEEING SOME COOLING. STRATUS HUGGING THE CENTRAL COAST IS
POISED FOR AN EARLY EVENING ADVANCEMENT...WHILE GOOD CLEARING SOUTH
OF SANTA BARBARA MEANS CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT OVER LA AND
VENTURA COUNTIES WHEN ANOTHER EDDY STARTS TO SPIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US SUCH WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS WILL GET PUSHED INTO TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
FAIRLY COLD TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL HELP ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY
THEN HOLD THE COURSE ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER
AND FURTHER INLAND STRATUS PUSH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND. GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS INCLUDING
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST UNDER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL
COOL THE AIRMASS...BUT THIS WILL IN TURN WEAKEN THE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS. THESE EFFECTS SHOULD COUNTERACT EACH OTHER FOR LITTLE
CHANGE ON THURSDAY...BUT COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS MIGHT SEE A LITTLE
WARM UP WITH SLIGHTLY LESS STRATUS AND BETTER AFTERNOON CLEARING.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
EXTENDED MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A WARM UP FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS EARLIER RUNS. THIS IS DUE IN
LARGE PART TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...THAT FORMS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY...STICKING AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AND EVEN
DEEPENING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHILE THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...THIS LOW WILL SOMEWHAT IMPEDE ITS PROGRESS INTO
CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE SHIFT WILL HELP TO FURTHER WEAKEN ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS...HELPING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
WARMUP A LITTLE MORE THAN THEY SHOULD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHANGE. COOLING NOW LOOKS ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A EXTENDED
MODELS DEVELOP A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z.
MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 2300 FEET DEEP. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. THE MARINE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS AS WELL DUE TO A PERSISTENT EDDY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE MARINE CLOUDS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE
CLOUDS ARRIVING MORE THAN 2 HOURS OFF FROM TAF ESTIMATE.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE MARINE CLOUDS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MARINE CLOUDS ARRIVING MORE THAN 2 HOURS OFF FROM TAF ESTIMATE.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM.
OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...01/200 PM.
ANOTHER SOUTH SWELL...NOT AS LARGE AS THE LAST ONE...WITH HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 012045
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...ONSHORE
BREEZES...AND OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES. ANOTHER COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY...WITH A FEW COASTAL
AREAS SEEING SOME COOLING. STRATUS HUGGING THE CENTRAL COAST IS
POISED FOR AN EARLY EVENING ADVANCEMENT...WHILE GOOD CLEARING SOUTH
OF SANTA BARBARA MEANS CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT OVER LA AND
VENTURA COUNTIES WHEN ANOTHER EDDY STARTS TO SPIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US SUCH WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS WILL GET PUSHED INTO TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
FAIRLY COLD TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL HELP ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY
THEN HOLD THE COURSE ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER
AND FURTHER INLAND STRATUS PUSH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND. GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS INCLUDING
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST UNDER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL
COOL THE AIRMASS...BUT THIS WILL IN TURN WEAKEN THE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS. THESE EFFECTS SHOULD COUNTERACT EACH OTHER FOR LITTLE
CHANGE ON THURSDAY...BUT COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS MIGHT SEE A LITTLE
WARM UP WITH SLIGHTLY LESS STRATUS AND BETTER AFTERNOON CLEARING.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
EXTENDED MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A WARM UP FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS EARLIER RUNS. THIS IS DUE IN
LARGE PART TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...THAT FORMS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY...STICKING AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AND EVEN
DEEPENING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHILE THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...THIS LOW WILL SOMEWHAT IMPEDE ITS PROGRESS INTO
CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE SHIFT WILL HELP TO FURTHER WEAKEN ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS...HELPING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
WARMUP A LITTLE MORE THAN THEY SHOULD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHANGE. COOLING NOW LOOKS ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A EXTENDED
MODELS DEVELOP A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z.
MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 2300 FEET DEEP. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. THE MARINE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS AS WELL DUE TO A PERSISTENT EDDY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE MARINE CLOUDS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE
CLOUDS ARRIVING MORE THAN 2 HOURS OFF FROM TAF ESTIMATE.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE MARINE CLOUDS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MARINE CLOUDS ARRIVING MORE THAN 2 HOURS OFF FROM TAF ESTIMATE.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM.
OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...01/200 PM.
ANOTHER SOUTH SWELL...NOT AS LARGE AS THE LAST ONE...WITH HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 011752
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TODAY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US SUCH WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...COASTAL STRATUS HAS RETURNED TO ALL COASTAL AREAS. A
FAIRLY STRONG COASTAL EDDY SPINNING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
BROUGHT A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER (1100-1900FT) WITH STRATUS
PUSHING INTO THE VALLEYS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THIS
EDDY HAS MEANDERED WESTWARD WHICH HAS PULLED THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS
OFF THE COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW. WHILE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND
STRATUS ARRIVAL USUALLY SPELLS A HEALTHY DOSE OF COOLING...CONCERNED
THAT THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL NEGATE THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE
MARINE LAYER. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH JUST A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND...WHICH IS THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SOME COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS DONT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF COOLING. NO NORTHWESTERLY WIND CONCERNS TODAY...BUT BREEZY
SUB-ADVISORY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS SRN CA WILL SHIFT SEWD TONIGHT THROUGH
WED...AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST.
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL FALL EACH DAY...AS WILL TEMPS AT 850 MB
AND 950 MB. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER DEEP THROUGH
WED...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE MTNS. CLEARING COULD BE RATHER SLOW ON
TUE AND MORE LIKELY ON WED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS BY WED. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION ON THU...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE
EC. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MTNS WED
NIGHT/THU AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...SLIGHT
RISES IN HEIGHTS MAY BRING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON
FRI...BUT ANY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE MINOR. THE GFS MAINTAINS
A SHARPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SAT...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE EC SHOWS SOME HEIGHT
RISES AS A WEAKER TROUGH ALLOWS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S CENTRAL
U.S. TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...EXPECT A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A REDUCTION IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z.
MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 2300 FEET DEEP. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. THE MARINE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS AS WELL DUE TO A PERSISTENT EDDY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE MARINE CLOUDS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE
CLOUDS ARRIVING MORE THAN 2 HOURS OFF FROM TAF ESTIMATE.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE MARINE CLOUDS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MARINE CLOUDS ARRIVING MORE THAN 2 HOURS OFF FROM TAF ESTIMATE.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM.
OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RK/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 011752
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TODAY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US SUCH WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...COASTAL STRATUS HAS RETURNED TO ALL COASTAL AREAS. A
FAIRLY STRONG COASTAL EDDY SPINNING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
BROUGHT A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER (1100-1900FT) WITH STRATUS
PUSHING INTO THE VALLEYS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THIS
EDDY HAS MEANDERED WESTWARD WHICH HAS PULLED THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS
OFF THE COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW. WHILE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND
STRATUS ARRIVAL USUALLY SPELLS A HEALTHY DOSE OF COOLING...CONCERNED
THAT THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL NEGATE THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE
MARINE LAYER. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH JUST A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND...WHICH IS THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SOME COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS DONT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF COOLING. NO NORTHWESTERLY WIND CONCERNS TODAY...BUT BREEZY
SUB-ADVISORY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS SRN CA WILL SHIFT SEWD TONIGHT THROUGH
WED...AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST.
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL FALL EACH DAY...AS WILL TEMPS AT 850 MB
AND 950 MB. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER DEEP THROUGH
WED...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE MTNS. CLEARING COULD BE RATHER SLOW ON
TUE AND MORE LIKELY ON WED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS BY WED. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION ON THU...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE
EC. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MTNS WED
NIGHT/THU AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...SLIGHT
RISES IN HEIGHTS MAY BRING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON
FRI...BUT ANY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE MINOR. THE GFS MAINTAINS
A SHARPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SAT...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE EC SHOWS SOME HEIGHT
RISES AS A WEAKER TROUGH ALLOWS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S CENTRAL
U.S. TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...EXPECT A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A REDUCTION IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z.
MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 2300 FEET DEEP. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. THE MARINE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS AS WELL DUE TO A PERSISTENT EDDY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE MARINE CLOUDS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE
CLOUDS ARRIVING MORE THAN 2 HOURS OFF FROM TAF ESTIMATE.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE MARINE CLOUDS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MARINE CLOUDS ARRIVING MORE THAN 2 HOURS OFF FROM TAF ESTIMATE.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM.
OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RK/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 011613
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TODAY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US SUCH WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...COASTAL STRATUS HAS RETURNED TO ALL COASTAL AREAS. A
FAIRLY STRONG COASTAL EDDY SPINNING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
BROUGHT A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER (1100-1900FT) WITH STRATUS
PUSHING INTO THE VALLEYS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THIS
EDDY HAS MEANDERED WESTWARD WHICH HAS PULLED THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS
OFF THE COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW. WHILE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND
STRATUS ARRIVAL USUALLY SPELLS A HEALTHY DOSE OF COOLING...CONCERNED
THAT THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL NEGATE THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE
MARINE LAYER. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH JUST A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND...WHICH IS THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SOME COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS DONT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF COOLING. NO NORTHWESTERLY WIND CONCERNS TODAY...BUT BREEZY
SUB-ADVISORY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS SRN CA WILL SHIFT SEWD TONIGHT THROUGH
WED...AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST.
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL FALL EACH DAY...AS WILL TEMPS AT 850 MB
AND 950 MB. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER DEEP THROUGH
WED...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE MTNS. CLEARING COULD BE RATHER SLOW ON
TUE AND MORE LIKELY ON WED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS BY WED. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION ON THU...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE
EC. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MTNS WED
NIGHT/THU AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...SLIGHT
RISES IN HEIGHTS MAY BRING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON
FRI...BUT ANY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE MINOR. THE GFS MAINTAINS
A SHARPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SAT...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE EC SHOWS SOME HEIGHT
RISES AS A WEAKER TROUGH ALLOWS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S CENTRAL
U.S. TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...EXPECT A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A REDUCTION IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1130Z.
MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 1600 FEET DEEP. MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS FORMING
HAPHAZARDLY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS AS CIGS WILL MOVE IN AND OUT
AND CIGS MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND LOW MVFR HGTS. BETTER CONFIDENCE
IN AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS WILL OCNL SCATTER OUT FOR 15 TO
30 MIN PERIODS UNTIL SKIES CLEAR FOR GOOD BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS WILL OCNL SCATTER OUT FOR 15 TO
30 MIN PERIODS UNTIL SKIES CLEAR FOR GOOD BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM.
OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RK/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR/SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 011613
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TODAY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US SUCH WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...COASTAL STRATUS HAS RETURNED TO ALL COASTAL AREAS. A
FAIRLY STRONG COASTAL EDDY SPINNING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
BROUGHT A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER (1100-1900FT) WITH STRATUS
PUSHING INTO THE VALLEYS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THIS
EDDY HAS MEANDERED WESTWARD WHICH HAS PULLED THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS
OFF THE COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW. WHILE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND
STRATUS ARRIVAL USUALLY SPELLS A HEALTHY DOSE OF COOLING...CONCERNED
THAT THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL NEGATE THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE
MARINE LAYER. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH JUST A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND...WHICH IS THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SOME COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS DONT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF COOLING. NO NORTHWESTERLY WIND CONCERNS TODAY...BUT BREEZY
SUB-ADVISORY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS SRN CA WILL SHIFT SEWD TONIGHT THROUGH
WED...AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST.
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL FALL EACH DAY...AS WILL TEMPS AT 850 MB
AND 950 MB. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER DEEP THROUGH
WED...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE MTNS. CLEARING COULD BE RATHER SLOW ON
TUE AND MORE LIKELY ON WED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS BY WED. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION ON THU...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE
EC. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MTNS WED
NIGHT/THU AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...SLIGHT
RISES IN HEIGHTS MAY BRING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON
FRI...BUT ANY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE MINOR. THE GFS MAINTAINS
A SHARPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SAT...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE EC SHOWS SOME HEIGHT
RISES AS A WEAKER TROUGH ALLOWS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S CENTRAL
U.S. TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...EXPECT A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A REDUCTION IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1130Z.
MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 1600 FEET DEEP. MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS FORMING
HAPHAZARDLY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS AS CIGS WILL MOVE IN AND OUT
AND CIGS MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND LOW MVFR HGTS. BETTER CONFIDENCE
IN AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS WILL OCNL SCATTER OUT FOR 15 TO
30 MIN PERIODS UNTIL SKIES CLEAR FOR GOOD BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS WILL OCNL SCATTER OUT FOR 15 TO
30 MIN PERIODS UNTIL SKIES CLEAR FOR GOOD BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM.
OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RK/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR/SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 011543
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
845 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TODAY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US SUCH WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...COASTAL STRATUS HAS RETURNED TO ALL COASTAL AREAS. A
FAIRLY STRONG COASTAL EDDY SPINNING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
BROUGHT A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER (1100-1900FT) WITH STRATUS
PUSHING INTO THE VALLEYS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THIS
EDDY HAS MEANDERED WESTWARD WHICH HAS PULLED THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS
OFF THE COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW. WHILE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND
STRATUS ARRIVAL USUALLY SPELLS A HEALTHY DOSE OF COOLING...CONCERNED
THAT THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL NEGATE THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE
MARINE LAYER. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH JUST A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND...WHICH IS THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SOME COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS DONT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF COOLING. NO NORTHWESTERLY WIND CONCERNS TODAY...BUT BREEZY
SUB-ADVISORY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS SRN CA WILL SHIFT SEWD TONIGHT THROUGH
WED...AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST.
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL FALL EACH DAY...AS WILL TEMPS AT 850 MB
AND 950 MB. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER DEEP THROUGH
WED...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE MTNS. CLEARING COULD BE RATHER SLOW ON
TUE AND MORE LIKELY ON WED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS BY WED. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION ON THU...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE
EC. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MTNS WED
NIGHT/THU AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...SLIGHT
RISES IN HEIGHTS MAY BRING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON
FRI...BUT ANY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE MINOR. THE GFS MAINTAINS
A SHARPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SAT...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE EC SHOWS SOME HEIGHT
RISES AS A WEAKER TROUGH ALLOWS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S CENTRAL
U.S. TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...EXPECT A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A REDUCTION IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1130Z.
MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 1600 FEET DEEP. MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS FORMING
HAPHAZARDLY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS AS CIGS WILL MOVE IN AND OUT
AND CIGS MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND LOW MVFR HGTS. BETTER CONFIDENCE
IN AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS WILL OCNL SCATTER OUT FOR 15 TO
30 MIN PERIODS UNTIL SKIES CLEAR FOR GOOD BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS WILL OCNL SCATTER OUT FOR 15 TO
30 MIN PERIODS UNTIL SKIES CLEAR FOR GOOD BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...1/400 AM.
OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL
END BY MID MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RK/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 011543
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
845 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TODAY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US SUCH WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...COASTAL STRATUS HAS RETURNED TO ALL COASTAL AREAS. A
FAIRLY STRONG COASTAL EDDY SPINNING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
BROUGHT A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER (1100-1900FT) WITH STRATUS
PUSHING INTO THE VALLEYS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THIS
EDDY HAS MEANDERED WESTWARD WHICH HAS PULLED THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS
OFF THE COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW. WHILE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND
STRATUS ARRIVAL USUALLY SPELLS A HEALTHY DOSE OF COOLING...CONCERNED
THAT THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL NEGATE THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE
MARINE LAYER. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH JUST A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND...WHICH IS THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SOME COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS DONT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF COOLING. NO NORTHWESTERLY WIND CONCERNS TODAY...BUT BREEZY
SUB-ADVISORY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS SRN CA WILL SHIFT SEWD TONIGHT THROUGH
WED...AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST.
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL FALL EACH DAY...AS WILL TEMPS AT 850 MB
AND 950 MB. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER DEEP THROUGH
WED...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE MTNS. CLEARING COULD BE RATHER SLOW ON
TUE AND MORE LIKELY ON WED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS BY WED. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION ON THU...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE
EC. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MTNS WED
NIGHT/THU AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...SLIGHT
RISES IN HEIGHTS MAY BRING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON
FRI...BUT ANY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE MINOR. THE GFS MAINTAINS
A SHARPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SAT...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE EC SHOWS SOME HEIGHT
RISES AS A WEAKER TROUGH ALLOWS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S CENTRAL
U.S. TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...EXPECT A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A REDUCTION IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1130Z.
MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 1600 FEET DEEP. MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS FORMING
HAPHAZARDLY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS AS CIGS WILL MOVE IN AND OUT
AND CIGS MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND LOW MVFR HGTS. BETTER CONFIDENCE
IN AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS WILL OCNL SCATTER OUT FOR 15 TO
30 MIN PERIODS UNTIL SKIES CLEAR FOR GOOD BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS WILL OCNL SCATTER OUT FOR 15 TO
30 MIN PERIODS UNTIL SKIES CLEAR FOR GOOD BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...1/400 AM.
OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL
END BY MID MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RK/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 011306
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TODAY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO BETWEEN
1600 AND 1800 FEET THIS MORNING. DECENT EDDY CIRCULATION IN PROGRESS
ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...AND CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE EDDY CRCLN HAS SHIFTED A
BIT WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH HAS PULLED THE
CLOUDS OUT OF ERN L.A. COUNTY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE JUST
TEMPORARY. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO S COASTAL SECTIONS OF SBA
COUNTY ONCE N-S GRADIENTS RELAX THIS MORNING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT
EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...BUT THEY COULD SNEAK IN
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. N OF PT CONCEPTION...CLOUDS HAVE
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SBA PORTION OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN
THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...AND CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO PUSH NWD INTO
SLO COUNTY. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING IN THE VALLEYS
AND BY LATE MORNING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS MAY
LINGER NEAR SOME BEACHES S OF PT CONCEPTION INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH
THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER...COOLING AT 950 MB...AND INCREASING
ONSHORE GRADS...EXPECT SOME COOLING TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STILL A TOUCH ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS AS HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH. EXPECT
GUSTY SOUTH TO WEST WINDS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS SRN CA WILL SHIFT SEWD TONIGHT THROUGH
WED...AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST.
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL FALL EACH DAY...AS WILL TEMPS AT 850 MB
AND 950 MB. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER DEEP THROUGH
WED...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE MTNS. CLEARING COULD BE RATHER SLOW ON
TUE AND MORE LIKELY ON WED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS BY WED. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION ON THU...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE
EC. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MTNS WED
NIGHT/THU AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...SLIGHT
RISES IN HEIGHTS MAY BRING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON
FRI...BUT ANY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE MINOR. THE GFS MAINTAINS
A SHARPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SAT...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE EC SHOWS SOME HEIGHT
RISES AS A WEAKER TROUGH ALLOWS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S CENTRAL
U.S. TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...EXPECT A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A REDUCTION IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.


&&

.AVIATION...

01/1130Z

MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 1600 FEET DEEP. MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS FORMING
HAPHAZARDLY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS AS CIGS WILL MOVE IN AND OUT
AND CIGS MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND LOW MVFR HGTS. BETTER CONFIDENCE
IN AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS WILL OCNL SCATTER OUT FOR 15 TO
30 MIN PERIODS UNTIL SKIES CLEAR FOR GOOD BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS WILL OCNL SCATTER OUT FOR 15 TO
30 MIN PERIODS UNTIL SKIES CLEAR FOR GOOD BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...

1/400 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL
END BY MID MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 011306
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TODAY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO BETWEEN
1600 AND 1800 FEET THIS MORNING. DECENT EDDY CIRCULATION IN PROGRESS
ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...AND CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE EDDY CRCLN HAS SHIFTED A
BIT WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH HAS PULLED THE
CLOUDS OUT OF ERN L.A. COUNTY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE JUST
TEMPORARY. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO S COASTAL SECTIONS OF SBA
COUNTY ONCE N-S GRADIENTS RELAX THIS MORNING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT
EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...BUT THEY COULD SNEAK IN
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. N OF PT CONCEPTION...CLOUDS HAVE
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SBA PORTION OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN
THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...AND CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO PUSH NWD INTO
SLO COUNTY. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING IN THE VALLEYS
AND BY LATE MORNING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS MAY
LINGER NEAR SOME BEACHES S OF PT CONCEPTION INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH
THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER...COOLING AT 950 MB...AND INCREASING
ONSHORE GRADS...EXPECT SOME COOLING TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STILL A TOUCH ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS AS HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH. EXPECT
GUSTY SOUTH TO WEST WINDS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS SRN CA WILL SHIFT SEWD TONIGHT THROUGH
WED...AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST.
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL FALL EACH DAY...AS WILL TEMPS AT 850 MB
AND 950 MB. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER DEEP THROUGH
WED...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE MTNS. CLEARING COULD BE RATHER SLOW ON
TUE AND MORE LIKELY ON WED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS BY WED. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION ON THU...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE
EC. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MTNS WED
NIGHT/THU AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...SLIGHT
RISES IN HEIGHTS MAY BRING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON
FRI...BUT ANY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE MINOR. THE GFS MAINTAINS
A SHARPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SAT...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE EC SHOWS SOME HEIGHT
RISES AS A WEAKER TROUGH ALLOWS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S CENTRAL
U.S. TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...EXPECT A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A REDUCTION IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.


&&

.AVIATION...

01/1130Z

MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 1600 FEET DEEP. MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS FORMING
HAPHAZARDLY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS AS CIGS WILL MOVE IN AND OUT
AND CIGS MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND LOW MVFR HGTS. BETTER CONFIDENCE
IN AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS WILL OCNL SCATTER OUT FOR 15 TO
30 MIN PERIODS UNTIL SKIES CLEAR FOR GOOD BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS WILL OCNL SCATTER OUT FOR 15 TO
30 MIN PERIODS UNTIL SKIES CLEAR FOR GOOD BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...

1/400 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL
END BY MID MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 011139
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TODAY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO BETWEEN
1600 AND 1800 FEET THIS MORNING. DECENT EDDY CIRCULATION IN PROGRESS
ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...AND CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE EDDY CRCLN HAS SHIFTED A
BIT WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... WHICH HAS PULLED THE
CLOUDS OUT OF ERN L.A. COUNTY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE JUST
TEMPORARY. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO S COASTAL SECTIONS OF SBA
COUNTY ONCE N-S GRADIENTS RELAX THIS MORNING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT
EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...BUT THEY COULD SNEAK IN
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. N OF PT CONCEPTION...CLOUDS HAVE
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SBA PORTION OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN
THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...AND CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO PUSH NWD INTO
SLO COUNTY. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING IN THE VALLEYS
AND BY LATE MORNING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS MAY
LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES OF VTU AND WRN L.A. COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER...COOLING AT 950 MB...AND
INCREASING ONSHORE GRADS...EXPECT SOME COOLING TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VLYS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN A BIT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STILL A
TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS AS HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER
HIGH. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO WEST WINDS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS SRN CA WILL SHIFT SEWD TONIGHT THROUGH
WED...AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST.
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL FALL EACH DAY...AS WILL TEMPS AT 850 MB
AND 950 MB. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER DEEP THROUGH
WED...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE MTNS. CLEARING COULD BE RATHER SLOW ON
TUE AND MORE LIKELY ON WED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS BY WED. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION ON THU...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE
EC. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MTNS WED
NIGHT/THU AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...SLIGHT
RISES IN HEIGHT MAY BRING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON
FRI...BUT ANY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE MINOR. THE GFS MAINTAINS
A SHARP TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SAT...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE EC SHOWS SOME HEIGHT
RISES AS A WEAKER TROUGH ALLOWS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S CENTRAL
U.S. TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...EXPECT A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A REDUCTION IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.


&&

.AVIATION...

01/1130Z

MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 1600 FEET DEEP. MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS FORMING
HAPHAZARDLY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS AS CIGS WILL MOVE IN AND OUT
AND CIGS MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND LOW MVFR HGTS. BETTER CONFIDENCE
IN AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS WILL OCNL SCATTER OUT FOR 15 TO
30 MIN PERIODS UNTIL SKIES CLEAR FOR GOOD BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS WILL OCNL SCATTER OUT FOR 15 TO
30 MIN PERIODS UNTIL SKIES CLEAR FOR GOOD BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...

1/400 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL
END BY MID MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 011139
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TODAY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO BETWEEN
1600 AND 1800 FEET THIS MORNING. DECENT EDDY CIRCULATION IN PROGRESS
ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...AND CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE EDDY CRCLN HAS SHIFTED A
BIT WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... WHICH HAS PULLED THE
CLOUDS OUT OF ERN L.A. COUNTY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE JUST
TEMPORARY. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO S COASTAL SECTIONS OF SBA
COUNTY ONCE N-S GRADIENTS RELAX THIS MORNING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT
EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...BUT THEY COULD SNEAK IN
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. N OF PT CONCEPTION...CLOUDS HAVE
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SBA PORTION OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN
THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...AND CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO PUSH NWD INTO
SLO COUNTY. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING IN THE VALLEYS
AND BY LATE MORNING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS MAY
LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES OF VTU AND WRN L.A. COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER...COOLING AT 950 MB...AND
INCREASING ONSHORE GRADS...EXPECT SOME COOLING TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VLYS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN A BIT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STILL A
TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS AS HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER
HIGH. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO WEST WINDS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS SRN CA WILL SHIFT SEWD TONIGHT THROUGH
WED...AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST.
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL FALL EACH DAY...AS WILL TEMPS AT 850 MB
AND 950 MB. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER DEEP THROUGH
WED...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE MTNS. CLEARING COULD BE RATHER SLOW ON
TUE AND MORE LIKELY ON WED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS BY WED. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION ON THU...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE
EC. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MTNS WED
NIGHT/THU AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...SLIGHT
RISES IN HEIGHT MAY BRING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON
FRI...BUT ANY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE MINOR. THE GFS MAINTAINS
A SHARP TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SAT...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE EC SHOWS SOME HEIGHT
RISES AS A WEAKER TROUGH ALLOWS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S CENTRAL
U.S. TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...EXPECT A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A REDUCTION IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.


&&

.AVIATION...

01/1130Z

MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 1600 FEET DEEP. MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS FORMING
HAPHAZARDLY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS AS CIGS WILL MOVE IN AND OUT
AND CIGS MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND LOW MVFR HGTS. BETTER CONFIDENCE
IN AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS WILL OCNL SCATTER OUT FOR 15 TO
30 MIN PERIODS UNTIL SKIES CLEAR FOR GOOD BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS WILL OCNL SCATTER OUT FOR 15 TO
30 MIN PERIODS UNTIL SKIES CLEAR FOR GOOD BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...

1/400 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL
END BY MID MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 011105
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
334 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TODAY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO BETWEEN
1600 AND 1800 FEET THIS MORNING. DECENT EDDY CIRCULATION IN PROGRESS
ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...AND CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE EDDY CRCLN HAS SHIFTED A
BIT WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... WHICH HAS PULLED THE
CLOUDS OUT OF ERN L.A. COUNTY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE JUST
TEMPORARY. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO S COASTAL SECTIONS OF SBA
COUNTY ONCE N-S GRADIENTS RELAX THIS MORNING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT
EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...BUT THEY COULD SNEAK IN
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. N OF PT CONCEPTION...CLOUDS HAVE
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SBA PORTION OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN
THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...AND CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO PUSH NWD INTO
SLO COUNTY. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING IN THE VALLEYS
AND BY LATE MORNING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS MAY
LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES OF VTU AND WRN L.A. COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER...COOLING AT 950 MB...AND
INCREASING ONSHORE GRADS...EXPECT SOME COOLING TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VLYS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN A BIT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STILL A
TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS AS HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER
HIGH. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO WEST WINDS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS SRN CA WILL SHIFT SEWD TONIGHT THROUGH
WED...AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST.
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL FALL EACH DAY...AS WILL TEMPS AT 850 MB
AND 950 MB. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER DEEP THROUGH
WED...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE MTNS. CLEARING COULD BE RATHER SLOW ON
TUE AND MORE LIKELY ON WED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS BY WED. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION ON THU...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE
EC. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MTNS WED
NIGHT/THU AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...SLIGHT
RISES IN HEIGHT MAY BRING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON
FRI...BUT ANY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE MINOR. THE GFS MAINTAINS
A SHARP TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SAT...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE EC SHOWS SOME HEIGHT
RISES AS A WEAKER TROUGH ALLOWS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S CENTRAL
U.S. TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...EXPECT A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A REDUCTION IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.


&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 011105
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
334 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TODAY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO BETWEEN
1600 AND 1800 FEET THIS MORNING. DECENT EDDY CIRCULATION IN PROGRESS
ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...AND CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THE EDDY CRCLN HAS SHIFTED A
BIT WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... WHICH HAS PULLED THE
CLOUDS OUT OF ERN L.A. COUNTY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE JUST
TEMPORARY. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO S COASTAL SECTIONS OF SBA
COUNTY ONCE N-S GRADIENTS RELAX THIS MORNING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT
EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...BUT THEY COULD SNEAK IN
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. N OF PT CONCEPTION...CLOUDS HAVE
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SBA PORTION OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN
THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...AND CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO PUSH NWD INTO
SLO COUNTY. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING IN THE VALLEYS
AND BY LATE MORNING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS MAY
LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES OF VTU AND WRN L.A. COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER...COOLING AT 950 MB...AND
INCREASING ONSHORE GRADS...EXPECT SOME COOLING TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VLYS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN A BIT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STILL A
TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS AS HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER
HIGH. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO WEST WINDS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS SRN CA WILL SHIFT SEWD TONIGHT THROUGH
WED...AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST.
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL FALL EACH DAY...AS WILL TEMPS AT 850 MB
AND 950 MB. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER DEEP THROUGH
WED...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE MTNS. CLEARING COULD BE RATHER SLOW ON
TUE AND MORE LIKELY ON WED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS BY WED. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION ON THU...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE
EC. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MTNS WED
NIGHT/THU AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...SLIGHT
RISES IN HEIGHT MAY BRING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ON
FRI...BUT ANY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE MINOR. THE GFS MAINTAINS
A SHARP TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SAT...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE EC SHOWS SOME HEIGHT
RISES AS A WEAKER TROUGH ALLOWS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S CENTRAL
U.S. TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...EXPECT A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A REDUCTION IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.


&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 010231
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
730 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
GRADUAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FLATTEN ON MONDAY...THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN ACROSS CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER DEPTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE IMPACTED THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
A BIT WEAKER AND MORE LOCALIZED THAN LAST NIGHT. NONETHELESS...THERE
IS A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA
SOUTH COAST TONIGHT...WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
SANTA BARBARA-SANTA MARIA PRESSURE GRADIENT PEAKED AT -3.8 MB AT 01Z
THIS EVENING. DOWNSLOPE WINDS RAISED TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY TO AROUND
90 DEGREES AT LAS FLORES CANYON AND GAVIOTA EARLIER THIS EVENING.

MEANWHILE...A COASTAL EDDY CIRCULATION WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG
AND OFF THE COAST OF ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES...MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY
REACHING SANTA BARBARA BY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE EDDY CIRCULATION
WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FEET
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS LIKELY REACHING SOME OF THE
VALLEYS. FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BE MORE SHALLOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
FORMING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN MORE
EXTENSIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MORE COOLING EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A WEAK LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL KEEP THE RIDGE WELL TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY`S BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MARINE LAYER. EXTENDED MODELS MOSTLY SINGING
THE SAME TUNE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS
GRADUALLY EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND BRING A WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...BUT NOT
NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL STILL BE PRESENT BUT WITH LESS EXPANSIVE STRATUS COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...31/2325Z.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH JUST SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FORMING OFF THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. WELL DEFINED EDDY CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO SPIN UP
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NORTHWESTWARD UP THE
COAST...POTENTIALLY REACHING KSBA AROUND SUNRISE. MARINE LAYER
SHOULD DEEPEN TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FEET BY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
LOW CLOUDS TO REACH KBUR AND KVNY. INITIALLY CIGS ARE MOSTLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN IFR CATEGORY...THEN BECOME MVFR AS MARINE LAYER
DEEPENS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CONDS
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z FORECAST. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO
CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CONDS
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 11Z FORECAST. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
NO CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...31/730 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CONTINUATION
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ZONE PZZ673
AND PZZ676...AND INTO MID MORNING MON FOR PZZ670. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PZZ645 THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...31/200 PM.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA TRENDED SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY AT THIS TIME AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY TRENDED
SLIGHT HIGHER. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN
THE VICINITY OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR NORTH OF NEWHALL AND IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE MENTIONED
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 40 PERCENT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BUT IN THE MEANTIME A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. A WEAK SUNDOWNER IS EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TEENS WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FEW
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/KITTELL
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...RAT/SIRARD
FIRE...30
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 010231
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
730 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
GRADUAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FLATTEN ON MONDAY...THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN ACROSS CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER DEPTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE IMPACTED THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
A BIT WEAKER AND MORE LOCALIZED THAN LAST NIGHT. NONETHELESS...THERE
IS A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA
SOUTH COAST TONIGHT...WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
SANTA BARBARA-SANTA MARIA PRESSURE GRADIENT PEAKED AT -3.8 MB AT 01Z
THIS EVENING. DOWNSLOPE WINDS RAISED TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY TO AROUND
90 DEGREES AT LAS FLORES CANYON AND GAVIOTA EARLIER THIS EVENING.

MEANWHILE...A COASTAL EDDY CIRCULATION WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG
AND OFF THE COAST OF ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES...MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY
REACHING SANTA BARBARA BY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE EDDY CIRCULATION
WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FEET
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS LIKELY REACHING SOME OF THE
VALLEYS. FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BE MORE SHALLOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
FORMING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN MORE
EXTENSIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MORE COOLING EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A WEAK LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL KEEP THE RIDGE WELL TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY`S BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MARINE LAYER. EXTENDED MODELS MOSTLY SINGING
THE SAME TUNE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS
GRADUALLY EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND BRING A WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...BUT NOT
NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL STILL BE PRESENT BUT WITH LESS EXPANSIVE STRATUS COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...31/2325Z.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH JUST SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FORMING OFF THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. WELL DEFINED EDDY CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO SPIN UP
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NORTHWESTWARD UP THE
COAST...POTENTIALLY REACHING KSBA AROUND SUNRISE. MARINE LAYER
SHOULD DEEPEN TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FEET BY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
LOW CLOUDS TO REACH KBUR AND KVNY. INITIALLY CIGS ARE MOSTLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN IFR CATEGORY...THEN BECOME MVFR AS MARINE LAYER
DEEPENS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CONDS
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z FORECAST. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO
CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CONDS
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 11Z FORECAST. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
NO CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...31/730 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CONTINUATION
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ZONE PZZ673
AND PZZ676...AND INTO MID MORNING MON FOR PZZ670. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PZZ645 THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...31/200 PM.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA TRENDED SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY AT THIS TIME AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY TRENDED
SLIGHT HIGHER. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN
THE VICINITY OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR NORTH OF NEWHALL AND IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE MENTIONED
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 40 PERCENT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BUT IN THE MEANTIME A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. A WEAK SUNDOWNER IS EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TEENS WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FEW
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/KITTELL
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...RAT/SIRARD
FIRE...30
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 312318
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
THE NORTHERLY WINDS FROM LAST NIGHT ARE WEAKER BUT STILL GUSTY AND
WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...AND WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD NOT FILL THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
QUITE LIKE IT DID LAST NIGHT...IT SHOULD TOUCH ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE WESTERN PASSES AND CANYONS. THESE SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WILL FUEL A FAIRLY STRONG
COASTAL EDDY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER
AND SPREAD STRATUS FURTHER INTO THE LA AND VENTURA VALLEYS AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THE SBA SOUTH COAST ITSELF BY DAYBREAK. TO THE NORTH...A
THIN BAND OF STRATUS FORMING SOUTH OF MONTEREY BODES WELL FOR A
RETURN OF STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY BE A
CONCERN.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER BAJA THAT BROUGHT US THE WARM
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN GET
PUSHED INTO TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FAIRLY COLD TROUGH
MARCHES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL HELP
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AS THE GENERAL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND FURTHER INLAND STRATUS PUSH EACH
DAY...WITH A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AFTER MONDAY...INCLUDING THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
A WEAK LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP THE RIDGE
WELL TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY`S BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MARINE LAYER.
EXTENDED MODELS MOSTLY SINGING THE SAME TUNE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS GRADUALLY EXPANDING WESTWARD
INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO WEAKEN THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND BRING A WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF WHAT WE
JUST EXPERIENCED. THE MARINE LAYER WILL STILL BE PRESENT BUT WITH
LESS EXPANSIVE STRATUS COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...31/2325Z.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
JUST SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FORMING OFF THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. WELL DEFINED EDDY CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO SPIN UP
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NORTHWESTWARD UP THE COAST...POTENTIALLY
REACHING KSBA AROUND SUNRISE. MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN TO BETWEEN
1500 AND 2000 FEET BY MORNING ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REACH KBUR AND
KVNY. INITIALLY CIGS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN IFR CATEGORY...THEN
BECOME MVFR AS MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CONDS
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z FORECAST. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO
CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CONDS
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 11Z FORECAST. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
NO CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...31/130 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CONTINUATION OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PZZ645 THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...31/200 PM.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA TRENDED SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY AT THIS TIME AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY TRENDED
SLIGHT HIGHER. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR NORTH OF NEWHALL AND IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE MENTIONED
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 40 PERCENT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BUT IN THE MEANTIME A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. A WEAK SUNDOWNER IS EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TEENS WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FEW
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...30
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 312318
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
THE NORTHERLY WINDS FROM LAST NIGHT ARE WEAKER BUT STILL GUSTY AND
WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...AND WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD NOT FILL THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
QUITE LIKE IT DID LAST NIGHT...IT SHOULD TOUCH ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE WESTERN PASSES AND CANYONS. THESE SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WILL FUEL A FAIRLY STRONG
COASTAL EDDY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER
AND SPREAD STRATUS FURTHER INTO THE LA AND VENTURA VALLEYS AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THE SBA SOUTH COAST ITSELF BY DAYBREAK. TO THE NORTH...A
THIN BAND OF STRATUS FORMING SOUTH OF MONTEREY BODES WELL FOR A
RETURN OF STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY BE A
CONCERN.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER BAJA THAT BROUGHT US THE WARM
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN GET
PUSHED INTO TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FAIRLY COLD TROUGH
MARCHES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL HELP
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AS THE GENERAL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND FURTHER INLAND STRATUS PUSH EACH
DAY...WITH A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AFTER MONDAY...INCLUDING THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
A WEAK LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP THE RIDGE
WELL TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY`S BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MARINE LAYER.
EXTENDED MODELS MOSTLY SINGING THE SAME TUNE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS GRADUALLY EXPANDING WESTWARD
INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO WEAKEN THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND BRING A WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF WHAT WE
JUST EXPERIENCED. THE MARINE LAYER WILL STILL BE PRESENT BUT WITH
LESS EXPANSIVE STRATUS COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...31/2325Z.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
JUST SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FORMING OFF THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. WELL DEFINED EDDY CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO SPIN UP
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NORTHWESTWARD UP THE COAST...POTENTIALLY
REACHING KSBA AROUND SUNRISE. MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN TO BETWEEN
1500 AND 2000 FEET BY MORNING ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REACH KBUR AND
KVNY. INITIALLY CIGS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN IFR CATEGORY...THEN
BECOME MVFR AS MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CONDS
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z FORECAST. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO
CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CONDS
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 11Z FORECAST. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
NO CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...31/130 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CONTINUATION OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PZZ645 THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...31/200 PM.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA TRENDED SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY AT THIS TIME AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY TRENDED
SLIGHT HIGHER. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR NORTH OF NEWHALL AND IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE MENTIONED
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 40 PERCENT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BUT IN THE MEANTIME A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. A WEAK SUNDOWNER IS EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TEENS WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FEW
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...30
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 312059
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
THE NORTHERLY WINDS FROM LAST NIGHT ARE WEAKER BUT STILL GUSTY AND
WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...AND WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD NOT FILL THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
QUITE LIKE IT DID LAST NIGHT...IT SHOULD TOUCH ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE WESTERN PASSES AND CANYONS. THESE SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WILL FUEL A FAIRLY STRONG
COASTAL EDDY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER
AND SPREAD STRATUS FURTHER INTO THE LA AND VENTURA VALLEYS AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THE SBA SOUTH COAST ITSELF BY DAYBREAK. TO THE NORTH...A
THIN BAND OF STRATUS FORMING SOUTH OF MONTEREY BODES WELL FOR A
RETURN OF STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY BE A
CONCERN.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER BAJA THAT BROUGHT US THE WARM
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN GET
PUSHED INTO TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FAIRLY COLD TROUGH
MARCHES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL HELP
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AS THE GENERAL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND FURTHER INLAND STRATUS PUSH EACH
DAY...WITH A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AFTER MONDAY...INCLUDING THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
A WEAK LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP THE RIDGE
WELL TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY`S BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MARINE LAYER.
EXTENDED MODELS MOSTLY SINGING THE SAME TUNE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS GRADUALLY EXPANDING WESTWARD
INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO WEAKEN THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND BRING A WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF WHAT WE
JUST EXPERIENCED. THE MARINE LAYER WILL STILL BE PRESENT BUT WITH
LESS EXPANSIVE STRATUS COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1710Z.
OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. STRATUS
DISSIPATING NICELY THIS MORNING...AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION
BASE AROUND 1500 FEET...AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND THAT LEVEL
OVERNIGHT. WITH EDDY EXPECTED TO SPIN UP...EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO
RETURN TO ALL COASTAL TAF SITES AND EVEN PUSH INTO THE COASTAL
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CONDS
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z FORECAST.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CONDS
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 11Z FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...31/130 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CONTINUATION OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PZZ645 THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...31/200 PM.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA TRENDED SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY AT THIS TIME AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY TRENDED
SLIGHT HIGHER. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR NORTH OF NEWHALL AND IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE MENTIONED
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 40 PERCENT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BUT IN THE MEANTIME A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. A WEAK SUNDOWNER IS EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TEENS WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FEW
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...30
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 312059
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
THE NORTHERLY WINDS FROM LAST NIGHT ARE WEAKER BUT STILL GUSTY AND
WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...AND WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD NOT FILL THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
QUITE LIKE IT DID LAST NIGHT...IT SHOULD TOUCH ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE WESTERN PASSES AND CANYONS. THESE SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WILL FUEL A FAIRLY STRONG
COASTAL EDDY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER
AND SPREAD STRATUS FURTHER INTO THE LA AND VENTURA VALLEYS AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THE SBA SOUTH COAST ITSELF BY DAYBREAK. TO THE NORTH...A
THIN BAND OF STRATUS FORMING SOUTH OF MONTEREY BODES WELL FOR A
RETURN OF STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY BE A
CONCERN.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER BAJA THAT BROUGHT US THE WARM
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN GET
PUSHED INTO TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FAIRLY COLD TROUGH
MARCHES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL HELP
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AS THE GENERAL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND FURTHER INLAND STRATUS PUSH EACH
DAY...WITH A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AFTER MONDAY...INCLUDING THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
A WEAK LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP THE RIDGE
WELL TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY`S BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MARINE LAYER.
EXTENDED MODELS MOSTLY SINGING THE SAME TUNE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS GRADUALLY EXPANDING WESTWARD
INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO WEAKEN THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND BRING A WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF WHAT WE
JUST EXPERIENCED. THE MARINE LAYER WILL STILL BE PRESENT BUT WITH
LESS EXPANSIVE STRATUS COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1710Z.
OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. STRATUS
DISSIPATING NICELY THIS MORNING...AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION
BASE AROUND 1500 FEET...AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND THAT LEVEL
OVERNIGHT. WITH EDDY EXPECTED TO SPIN UP...EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO
RETURN TO ALL COASTAL TAF SITES AND EVEN PUSH INTO THE COASTAL
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CONDS
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z FORECAST.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CONDS
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 11Z FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...31/130 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CONTINUATION OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PZZ645 THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...31/200 PM.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA TRENDED SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY AT THIS TIME AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY TRENDED
SLIGHT HIGHER. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR NORTH OF NEWHALL AND IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE MENTIONED
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 40 PERCENT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BUT IN THE MEANTIME A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. A WEAK SUNDOWNER IS EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TEENS WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FEW
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...30
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 311711 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1010 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
A WEAKENING NORTH-TO-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT STILL
VERY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MARINE LAYER IS STILL VERY
SHALLOW...BUT A HEALTHY EDDY OVER VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
HAS ALLOWED STRATUS TO FORM AND SHOULD HELP BRING MORE EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FROM LAST NIGHT ARE
WEAKENING...BUT WILL STAY BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT OVER THE
FAVORED AREAS. THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL HAVE ANOTHER SUNDOWNER
TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD NOT FILL THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
LIKE IT DID LAST NIGHT...IT COULD TOUCH ADVISORY STRENGTH THROUGH
THE WESTERN PASSES AND CANYONS. WILL CONSIDER ADDING A WIND ADVISORY
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...AND ONLY
UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY COVER AND TWEAK A FEW OF THE WINDS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL FALL A BIT.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN A BIT...AND THE WRF SHOWS A DECENT
EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...AND CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ALSO PUSH INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...BUT WILL PROBABLY STAY OUT OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND MOST VTU COUNTY VALLEYS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
N-S GRADIENTS WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR ACROSS
THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES
MORE IN MOST AREAS ON MON...WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUE. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT MORE...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...PROBABLY
SPREADING INTO ALL BUT THE INTERIOR VLYS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE EC IS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS WITH HEIGHT RISES ON FRI AND
SAT...AND IF TRUE...THIS WOULD BRING A BIT OF WARMING TO THE
REGION...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT
LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1710Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. STRATUS
DISSIPATING NICELY THIS MORNING...AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION
BASE AROUND 1500 FEET...AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND THAT LEVEL
OVERNIGHT. WITH EDDY EXPECTED TO SPIN UP...EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO
RETURN TO ALL COASTAL TAF SITES AND EVEN PUSH INTO THE COASTAL
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CONDS
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z FORECAST.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CONDS
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 11Z FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...31/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY WITH ONLY LOCAL WIND GUSTS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BEYOND MONDAY...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT...ACROSS PZZ645. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE INNER WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...31/900 AM

TEMPERATURES ON THE SLOPES ON THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE FELL TO AROUND 80
DEGREES BY SUNRISE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAD LITTLE RECOVERY.
THE WINDS HAD DIMINISHED AND THE CURRENT GUSTS WERE AROUND 20 MPH.
OTHERWISE INLAND AREAS WERE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY AT
THIS TIME AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAD TRENDED HIGHER. THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIFFER LITTLE. A
WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR NORTH
OF NEWHALL AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE MENTIONED AREAS AND A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. A WEAK SUNDOWNER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL GUSTS
TO 35 MPH AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TEENS
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 311711 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1010 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
A WEAKENING NORTH-TO-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT STILL
VERY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MARINE LAYER IS STILL VERY
SHALLOW...BUT A HEALTHY EDDY OVER VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
HAS ALLOWED STRATUS TO FORM AND SHOULD HELP BRING MORE EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FROM LAST NIGHT ARE
WEAKENING...BUT WILL STAY BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT OVER THE
FAVORED AREAS. THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL HAVE ANOTHER SUNDOWNER
TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD NOT FILL THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
LIKE IT DID LAST NIGHT...IT COULD TOUCH ADVISORY STRENGTH THROUGH
THE WESTERN PASSES AND CANYONS. WILL CONSIDER ADDING A WIND ADVISORY
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...AND ONLY
UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY COVER AND TWEAK A FEW OF THE WINDS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL FALL A BIT.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN A BIT...AND THE WRF SHOWS A DECENT
EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...AND CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ALSO PUSH INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...BUT WILL PROBABLY STAY OUT OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND MOST VTU COUNTY VALLEYS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
N-S GRADIENTS WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR ACROSS
THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES
MORE IN MOST AREAS ON MON...WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUE. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT MORE...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...PROBABLY
SPREADING INTO ALL BUT THE INTERIOR VLYS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE EC IS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS WITH HEIGHT RISES ON FRI AND
SAT...AND IF TRUE...THIS WOULD BRING A BIT OF WARMING TO THE
REGION...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT
LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1710Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. STRATUS
DISSIPATING NICELY THIS MORNING...AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION
BASE AROUND 1500 FEET...AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND THAT LEVEL
OVERNIGHT. WITH EDDY EXPECTED TO SPIN UP...EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO
RETURN TO ALL COASTAL TAF SITES AND EVEN PUSH INTO THE COASTAL
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CONDS
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z FORECAST.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CONDS
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 11Z FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...31/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY WITH ONLY LOCAL WIND GUSTS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BEYOND MONDAY...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT...ACROSS PZZ645. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE INNER WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...31/900 AM

TEMPERATURES ON THE SLOPES ON THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE FELL TO AROUND 80
DEGREES BY SUNRISE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAD LITTLE RECOVERY.
THE WINDS HAD DIMINISHED AND THE CURRENT GUSTS WERE AROUND 20 MPH.
OTHERWISE INLAND AREAS WERE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY AT
THIS TIME AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAD TRENDED HIGHER. THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIFFER LITTLE. A
WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR NORTH
OF NEWHALL AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE MENTIONED AREAS AND A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. A WEAK SUNDOWNER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL GUSTS
TO 35 MPH AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TEENS
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 311616
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
A WEAKENING NORTH-TO-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT STILL
VERY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MARINE LAYER IS STILL VERY
SHALLOW...BUT A HEALTHY EDDY OVER VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
HAS ALLOWED STRATUS TO FORM AND SHOULD HELP BRING MORE EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FROM LAST NIGHT ARE
WEAKENING...BUT WILL STAY BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT OVER THE
FAVORED AREAS. THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL HAVE ANOTHER SUNDOWNER
TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD NOT FILL THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
LIKE IT DID LAST NIGHT...IT COULD TOUCH ADVISORY STRENGTH THROUGH
THE WESTERN PASSES AND CANYONS. WILL CONSIDER ADDING A WIND ADVISORY
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...AND ONLY
UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY COVER AND TWEAK A FEW OF THE WINDS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL FALL A BIT.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN A BIT...AND THE WRF SHOWS A DECENT
EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...AND CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ALSO PUSH INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...BUT WILL PROBABLY STAY OUT OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND MOST VTU COUNTY VALLEYS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
N-S GRADIENTS WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR ACROSS
THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES
MORE IN MOST AREAS ON MON...WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUE. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT MORE...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...PROBABLY
SPREADING INTO ALL BUT THE INTERIOR VLYS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE EC IS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS WITH HEIGHT RISES ON FRI AND
SAT...AND IF TRUE...THIS WOULD BRING A BIT OF WARMING TO THE
REGION...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT
LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1200Z...
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS TIMING FOR CENTRAL
COAST. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP AT KSBP AT ALL.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS FOR KPRB OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP +/- 2 HOURS FROM
12Z TAF TIME.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF. EDDY
CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE IFR STRATUS TO THE NORTH INTO
KOXR BY 13-14Z THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR KSBA THROUGH THIS EVE. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AT KSBA AFTER 09Z THIS EVE. STRATUS SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER
TIME DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS A MODERATE EDDY CIRCULATION CONTINUES. 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KBUR MONDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODEST LLWS AND UDDF AROUND KSBA BETWEEN 21Z-07Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS BECOMING MVFR BETWEEN 12Z-17Z
WITH SCOUR OUT TIME WITHIN AN HOUR OF 17Z THIS MORNING. BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS IFR/LOW MVFR WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...31/410 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GALE WARNING FOR PZZ673-676 HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH NOW ALL OUTER WATERS WILL
UNDER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
AFTER EARLY MONDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AFTER MONDAY
MORNING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS... FOR PZZ645 (POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL) THERE WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BY NOON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE VALID FROM NOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS..WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING. NO MAJOR CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650
(SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT LOCAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...31/900 AM

TEMPERATURES ON THE SLOPES ON THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE FELL TO AROUND 80
DEGREES BY SUNRISE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAD LITTLE RECOVERY.
THE WINDS HAD DIMINISHED AND THE CURRENT GUSTS WERE AROUND 20 MPH.
OTHERWISE INLAND AREAS WERE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY AT
THIS TIME AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAD TRENDED HIGHER. THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIFFER LITTLE. A
WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR NORTH
OF NEWHALL AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE MENTIONED AREAS AND A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. A WEAK SUNDOWNER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL GUSTS
TO 35 MPH AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TEENS
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
FIRE...30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



















000
FXUS66 KLOX 311616
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
A WEAKENING NORTH-TO-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT STILL
VERY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MARINE LAYER IS STILL VERY
SHALLOW...BUT A HEALTHY EDDY OVER VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
HAS ALLOWED STRATUS TO FORM AND SHOULD HELP BRING MORE EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FROM LAST NIGHT ARE
WEAKENING...BUT WILL STAY BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT OVER THE
FAVORED AREAS. THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL HAVE ANOTHER SUNDOWNER
TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD NOT FILL THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
LIKE IT DID LAST NIGHT...IT COULD TOUCH ADVISORY STRENGTH THROUGH
THE WESTERN PASSES AND CANYONS. WILL CONSIDER ADDING A WIND ADVISORY
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...AND ONLY
UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY COVER AND TWEAK A FEW OF THE WINDS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL FALL A BIT.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN A BIT...AND THE WRF SHOWS A DECENT
EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...AND CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ALSO PUSH INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...BUT WILL PROBABLY STAY OUT OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND MOST VTU COUNTY VALLEYS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
N-S GRADIENTS WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR ACROSS
THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES
MORE IN MOST AREAS ON MON...WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUE. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT MORE...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...PROBABLY
SPREADING INTO ALL BUT THE INTERIOR VLYS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE EC IS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS WITH HEIGHT RISES ON FRI AND
SAT...AND IF TRUE...THIS WOULD BRING A BIT OF WARMING TO THE
REGION...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT
LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1200Z...
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS TIMING FOR CENTRAL
COAST. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP AT KSBP AT ALL.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS FOR KPRB OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP +/- 2 HOURS FROM
12Z TAF TIME.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF. EDDY
CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE IFR STRATUS TO THE NORTH INTO
KOXR BY 13-14Z THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR KSBA THROUGH THIS EVE. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AT KSBA AFTER 09Z THIS EVE. STRATUS SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER
TIME DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS A MODERATE EDDY CIRCULATION CONTINUES. 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KBUR MONDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODEST LLWS AND UDDF AROUND KSBA BETWEEN 21Z-07Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS BECOMING MVFR BETWEEN 12Z-17Z
WITH SCOUR OUT TIME WITHIN AN HOUR OF 17Z THIS MORNING. BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS IFR/LOW MVFR WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...31/410 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GALE WARNING FOR PZZ673-676 HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH NOW ALL OUTER WATERS WILL
UNDER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
AFTER EARLY MONDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AFTER MONDAY
MORNING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS... FOR PZZ645 (POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL) THERE WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BY NOON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE VALID FROM NOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS..WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING. NO MAJOR CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650
(SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT LOCAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...31/900 AM

TEMPERATURES ON THE SLOPES ON THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE FELL TO AROUND 80
DEGREES BY SUNRISE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAD LITTLE RECOVERY.
THE WINDS HAD DIMINISHED AND THE CURRENT GUSTS WERE AROUND 20 MPH.
OTHERWISE INLAND AREAS WERE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY AT
THIS TIME AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAD TRENDED HIGHER. THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIFFER LITTLE. A
WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR NORTH
OF NEWHALL AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE MENTIONED AREAS AND A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. A WEAK SUNDOWNER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL GUSTS
TO 35 MPH AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TEENS
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
FIRE...30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




















000
FXUS66 KLOX 311603
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
A WEAKENING NORTH-TO-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT STILL
VERY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MARINE LAYER IS STILL VERY
SHALLOW...BUT A HEALTHY EDDY OVER VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
HAS ALLOWED STRATUS TO FORM AND SHOULD HELP BRING MORE EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FROM LAST NIGHT ARE
WEAKENING...BUT WILL STAY BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT OVER THE
FAVORED AREAS. THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL HAVE ANOTHER SUNDOWNER
TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD NOT FILL THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
LIKE IT DID LAST NIGHT...IT COULD TOUCH ADVISORY STRENGTH THROUGH
THE WESTERN PASSES AND CANYONS. WILL CONSIDER ADDING A WIND ADVISORY
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...AND ONLY
UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY COVER AND TWEAK A FEW OF THE WINDS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL FALL A BIT.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN A BIT...AND THE WRF SHOWS A DECENT
EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...AND CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ALSO PUSH INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...BUT WILL PROBABLY STAY OUT OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND MOST VTU COUNTY VALLEYS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
N-S GRADIENTS WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR ACROSS
THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES
MORE IN MOST AREAS ON MON...WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUE. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT MORE...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...PROBABLY
SPREADING INTO ALL BUT THE INTERIOR VLYS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE EC IS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS WITH HEIGHT RISES ON FRI AND
SAT...AND IF TRUE...THIS WOULD BRING A BIT OF WARMING TO THE
REGION...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT
LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1200Z...
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS TIMING FOR CENTRAL
COAST. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP AT KSBP AT ALL.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS FOR KPRB OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP +/- 2 HOURS FROM
12Z TAF TIME.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF. EDDY
CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE IFR STRATUS TO THE NORTH INTO
KOXR BY 13-14Z THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR KSBA THROUGH THIS EVE. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AT KSBA AFTER 09Z THIS EVE. STRATUS SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER
TIME DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS A MODERATE EDDY CIRCULATION CONTINUES. 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KBUR MONDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODEST LLWS AND UDDF AROUND KSBA BETWEEN 21Z-07Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS BECOMING MVFR BETWEEN 12Z-17Z
WITH SCOUR OUT TIME WITHIN AN HOUR OF 17Z THIS MORNING. BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS IFR/LOW MVFR WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...31/410 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GALE WARNING FOR PZZ673-676 HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH NOW ALL OUTER WATERS WILL
UNDER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
AFTER EARLY MONDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AFTER MONDAY
MORNING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS... FOR PZZ645 (POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL) THERE WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BY NOON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE VALID FROM NOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS..WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING. NO MAJOR CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650
(SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT LOCAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 311603
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
A WEAKENING NORTH-TO-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT STILL
VERY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MARINE LAYER IS STILL VERY
SHALLOW...BUT A HEALTHY EDDY OVER VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
HAS ALLOWED STRATUS TO FORM AND SHOULD HELP BRING MORE EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FROM LAST NIGHT ARE
WEAKENING...BUT WILL STAY BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT OVER THE
FAVORED AREAS. THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL HAVE ANOTHER SUNDOWNER
TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD NOT FILL THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
LIKE IT DID LAST NIGHT...IT COULD TOUCH ADVISORY STRENGTH THROUGH
THE WESTERN PASSES AND CANYONS. WILL CONSIDER ADDING A WIND ADVISORY
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...AND ONLY
UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY COVER AND TWEAK A FEW OF THE WINDS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL FALL A BIT.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN A BIT...AND THE WRF SHOWS A DECENT
EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...AND CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ALSO PUSH INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...BUT WILL PROBABLY STAY OUT OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND MOST VTU COUNTY VALLEYS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
N-S GRADIENTS WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR ACROSS
THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES
MORE IN MOST AREAS ON MON...WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUE. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT MORE...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...PROBABLY
SPREADING INTO ALL BUT THE INTERIOR VLYS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE EC IS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS WITH HEIGHT RISES ON FRI AND
SAT...AND IF TRUE...THIS WOULD BRING A BIT OF WARMING TO THE
REGION...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT
LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1200Z...
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS TIMING FOR CENTRAL
COAST. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP AT KSBP AT ALL.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS FOR KPRB OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP +/- 2 HOURS FROM
12Z TAF TIME.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF. EDDY
CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE IFR STRATUS TO THE NORTH INTO
KOXR BY 13-14Z THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR KSBA THROUGH THIS EVE. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AT KSBA AFTER 09Z THIS EVE. STRATUS SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER
TIME DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS A MODERATE EDDY CIRCULATION CONTINUES. 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KBUR MONDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODEST LLWS AND UDDF AROUND KSBA BETWEEN 21Z-07Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS BECOMING MVFR BETWEEN 12Z-17Z
WITH SCOUR OUT TIME WITHIN AN HOUR OF 17Z THIS MORNING. BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS IFR/LOW MVFR WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...31/410 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GALE WARNING FOR PZZ673-676 HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH NOW ALL OUTER WATERS WILL
UNDER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
AFTER EARLY MONDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AFTER MONDAY
MORNING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS... FOR PZZ645 (POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL) THERE WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BY NOON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE VALID FROM NOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS..WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING. NO MAJOR CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650
(SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT LOCAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

















000
FXUS66 KLOX 311248
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY.
HOWEVER...WINDS AT ADVISORY LEVELS HAVE BECOME LOCALIZED...SO WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE 80S
IN THE FOOTHILLS FROM LOS ANGELES COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY
AS OF 3 AM PDT. WHILE RH VALUES WERE HOVERING AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
THESE AREAS...WITH WINDS WEAKENING...CONDITIONS MEETING RED FLAG
CRITERIA WERE ONLY ISOLATED...AND CONFINED TO THE MONTECITO AREA.
THEREFORE...HAVE LET THE RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE AT 3 AM...BUT CONDS
WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL VALUES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST...AND COULD MAKE THEIR WAY NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL VTU COUNTY
BY DAYBREAK. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY...WITH THE MARINE INVERSION AROUND
1200 FEET...IS THAT SOME CLOUDS COULD SPILL INTO THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY FOR A FEW HOURS. N OF PT CONCEPTION...N-S GRADIENTS HAVE
TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON THE STRATUS...AND AT WORST...EXPECT SOME PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS WRN SBA COUNTY THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS...BUT COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BEACHES OF SRN VTU COUNTY AND WRN L.A.
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL FALL A BIT.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN A BIT...AND THE WRF SHOWS A DECENT
EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...AND CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ALSO PUSH INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...BUT WILL PROBABLY STAY OUT OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND MOST VTU COUNTY VALLEYS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
N-S GRADIENTS WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR ACROSS
THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES
MORE IN MOST AREAS ON MON...WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUE. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT MORE...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...PROBABLY
SPREADING INTO ALL BUT THE INTERIOR VLYS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE EC IS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS WITH HEIGHT RISES ON FRI AND
SAT...AND IF TRUE...THIS WOULD BRING A BIT OF WARMING TO THE
REGION...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT
LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1200Z...
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS TIMING FOR CENTRAL
COAST. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP AT KSBP AT ALL.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS FOR KPRB OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP +/- 2 HOURS FROM
12Z TAF TIME.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF. EDDY
CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE IFR STRATUS TO THE NORTH INTO
KOXR BY 13-14Z THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR KSBA THROUGH THIS EVE. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AT KSBA AFTER 09Z THIS EVE. STRATUS SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER
TIME DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS A MODERATE EDDY CIRCULATION CONTINUES. 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KBUR MONDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODEST LLWS AND UDDF AROUND KSBA BETWEEN 21Z-07Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS BECOMING MVFR BETWEEN 12Z-17Z
WITH SCOUR OUT TIME WITHIN AN HOUR OF 17Z THIS MORNING. BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS IFR/LOW MVFR WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...31/410 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GALE WARNING FOR PZZ673-676 HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH NOW ALL OUTER WATERS WILL
UNDER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
AFTER EARLY MONDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AFTER MONDAY
MORNING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS... FOR PZZ645 (POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL) THERE WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BY NOON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE VALID FROM NOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS..WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING. NO MAJOR CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650
(SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT LOCAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 311248
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY.
HOWEVER...WINDS AT ADVISORY LEVELS HAVE BECOME LOCALIZED...SO WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE 80S
IN THE FOOTHILLS FROM LOS ANGELES COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY
AS OF 3 AM PDT. WHILE RH VALUES WERE HOVERING AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
THESE AREAS...WITH WINDS WEAKENING...CONDITIONS MEETING RED FLAG
CRITERIA WERE ONLY ISOLATED...AND CONFINED TO THE MONTECITO AREA.
THEREFORE...HAVE LET THE RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE AT 3 AM...BUT CONDS
WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL VALUES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST...AND COULD MAKE THEIR WAY NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL VTU COUNTY
BY DAYBREAK. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY...WITH THE MARINE INVERSION AROUND
1200 FEET...IS THAT SOME CLOUDS COULD SPILL INTO THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY FOR A FEW HOURS. N OF PT CONCEPTION...N-S GRADIENTS HAVE
TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON THE STRATUS...AND AT WORST...EXPECT SOME PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS WRN SBA COUNTY THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS...BUT COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BEACHES OF SRN VTU COUNTY AND WRN L.A.
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL FALL A BIT.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN A BIT...AND THE WRF SHOWS A DECENT
EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...AND CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ALSO PUSH INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...BUT WILL PROBABLY STAY OUT OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND MOST VTU COUNTY VALLEYS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
N-S GRADIENTS WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR ACROSS
THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES
MORE IN MOST AREAS ON MON...WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUE. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT MORE...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...PROBABLY
SPREADING INTO ALL BUT THE INTERIOR VLYS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE EC IS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS WITH HEIGHT RISES ON FRI AND
SAT...AND IF TRUE...THIS WOULD BRING A BIT OF WARMING TO THE
REGION...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT
LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1200Z...
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS TIMING FOR CENTRAL
COAST. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP AT KSBP AT ALL.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS FOR KPRB OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP +/- 2 HOURS FROM
12Z TAF TIME.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF. EDDY
CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE IFR STRATUS TO THE NORTH INTO
KOXR BY 13-14Z THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR KSBA THROUGH THIS EVE. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AT KSBA AFTER 09Z THIS EVE. STRATUS SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER
TIME DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS A MODERATE EDDY CIRCULATION CONTINUES. 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KBUR MONDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODEST LLWS AND UDDF AROUND KSBA BETWEEN 21Z-07Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS BECOMING MVFR BETWEEN 12Z-17Z
WITH SCOUR OUT TIME WITHIN AN HOUR OF 17Z THIS MORNING. BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS IFR/LOW MVFR WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...31/410 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GALE WARNING FOR PZZ673-676 HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH NOW ALL OUTER WATERS WILL
UNDER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
AFTER EARLY MONDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AFTER MONDAY
MORNING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS... FOR PZZ645 (POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL) THERE WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BY NOON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE VALID FROM NOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS..WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING. NO MAJOR CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650
(SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT LOCAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 311158
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY.
HOWEVER...WINDS AT ADVISORY LEVELS HAVE BECOME LOCALIZED...SO WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE 80S
IN THE FOOTHILLS FROM LOS ANGELES COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY
AS OF 3 AM PDT. WHILE RH VALUES WERE HOVERING AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
THESE AREAS...WITH WINDS WEAKENING...CONDITIONS MEETING RED FLAG
CRITERIA WERE ONLY ISOLATED...AND CONFINED TO THE MONTECITO AREA.
THEREFORE...HAVE LET THE WARNING EXPIRE AT 3 AM...BUT CONDS WILL BE
NEAR CRITICAL VALUES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST...AND COULD MAKE THEIR WAY NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL VTU COUNTY
BY DAYBREAK. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY...WITH THE MARINE INVERSION AROUND
1200 FEET...IS THAT SOME CLOUDS COULD SPILL INTO THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY FOR A FEW HOURS. N OF PT CONCEPTION...N-S GRADIENTS HAVE
TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON THE STRATUS...AND AT WORST...EXPECT SOME PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS WRN SBA COUNTY THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS...BUT COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE BEACHES OF SRN VTU COUNTY AND WRN L.A.
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL FALL A BIT.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN A BIT...AND THE WRF SHOWS A DECENT
EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...AND CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ALSO PUSH INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...BUT WILL PROBABLY STAY OUT OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND MOST VTU COUNTY VALLEYS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
N-S GRADIENTS WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR ACROSS
THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES
MORE IN MOST AREAS ON MON...WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUE. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT MORE...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...PROBABLY
SPREADING INTO ALL BY THE INTERIOR VLYS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREA.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE EC IS MORE BULLISH THAT THE GFS WITH HEIGHT RISES ON FRI AND
SAT...AND IF TRUE...THIS WOULD BRING A BIT OF WARMING TO THE
REGION...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT
LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1200Z...
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS TIMING FOR CENTRAL
COAST. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP AT KSBP AT ALL.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS FOR KPRB OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP +/- 2 HOURS FROM
12Z TAF TIME.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF. EDDY
CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE IFR STRATUS TO THE NORTH INTO
KOXR BY 13-14Z THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR KSBA THROUGH THIS EVE. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AT KSBA AFTER 09Z THIS EVE. STRATUS SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER
TIME DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS A MODERATE EDDY CIRCULATION CONTINUES. 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KBUR MONDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODEST LLWS AND UDDF AROUND KSBA BETWEEN 21Z-07Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS BECOMING MVFR BETWEEN 12Z-17Z
WITH SCOUR OUT TIME WITHIN AN HOUR OF 17Z THIS MORNING. BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS IFR/LOW MVFR WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...31/410 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GALE WARNING FOR PZZ673-676 HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH NOW ALL OUTER WATERS WILL
UNDER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
AFTER EARLY MONDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AFTER MONDAY
MORNING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS... FOR PZZ645 (POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL) THERE WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BY NOON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE VALID FROM NOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS..WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING. NO MAJOR CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650
(SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT LOCAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 311158
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY.
HOWEVER...WINDS AT ADVISORY LEVELS HAVE BECOME LOCALIZED...SO WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE 80S
IN THE FOOTHILLS FROM LOS ANGELES COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY
AS OF 3 AM PDT. WHILE RH VALUES WERE HOVERING AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
THESE AREAS...WITH WINDS WEAKENING...CONDITIONS MEETING RED FLAG
CRITERIA WERE ONLY ISOLATED...AND CONFINED TO THE MONTECITO AREA.
THEREFORE...HAVE LET THE WARNING EXPIRE AT 3 AM...BUT CONDS WILL BE
NEAR CRITICAL VALUES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST...AND COULD MAKE THEIR WAY NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL VTU COUNTY
BY DAYBREAK. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY...WITH THE MARINE INVERSION AROUND
1200 FEET...IS THAT SOME CLOUDS COULD SPILL INTO THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY FOR A FEW HOURS. N OF PT CONCEPTION...N-S GRADIENTS HAVE
TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON THE STRATUS...AND AT WORST...EXPECT SOME PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS WRN SBA COUNTY THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS...BUT COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE BEACHES OF SRN VTU COUNTY AND WRN L.A.
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL FALL A BIT.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN A BIT...AND THE WRF SHOWS A DECENT
EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...AND CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ALSO PUSH INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...BUT WILL PROBABLY STAY OUT OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND MOST VTU COUNTY VALLEYS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
N-S GRADIENTS WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR ACROSS
THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES
MORE IN MOST AREAS ON MON...WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUE. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT MORE...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...PROBABLY
SPREADING INTO ALL BY THE INTERIOR VLYS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREA.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE EC IS MORE BULLISH THAT THE GFS WITH HEIGHT RISES ON FRI AND
SAT...AND IF TRUE...THIS WOULD BRING A BIT OF WARMING TO THE
REGION...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT
LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1200Z...
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS TIMING FOR CENTRAL
COAST. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP AT KSBP AT ALL.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS FOR KPRB OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP +/- 2 HOURS FROM
12Z TAF TIME.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF. EDDY
CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE IFR STRATUS TO THE NORTH INTO
KOXR BY 13-14Z THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR KSBA THROUGH THIS EVE. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AT KSBA AFTER 09Z THIS EVE. STRATUS SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER
TIME DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS A MODERATE EDDY CIRCULATION CONTINUES. 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KBUR MONDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODEST LLWS AND UDDF AROUND KSBA BETWEEN 21Z-07Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS BECOMING MVFR BETWEEN 12Z-17Z
WITH SCOUR OUT TIME WITHIN AN HOUR OF 17Z THIS MORNING. BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS IFR/LOW MVFR WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...31/410 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GALE WARNING FOR PZZ673-676 HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH NOW ALL OUTER WATERS WILL
UNDER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
AFTER EARLY MONDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AFTER MONDAY
MORNING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS... FOR PZZ645 (POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL) THERE WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BY NOON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE VALID FROM NOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS..WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING. NO MAJOR CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650
(SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT LOCAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 311157
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
341 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY.
HOWEVER...WINDS AT ADVISORY LEVELS HAVE BECOME LOCALIZED...SO WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE 80S
IN THE FOOTHILLS FROM LOS ANGELES COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY
AS OF 3 AM PDT. WHILE RH VALUES WERE HOVERING AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
THESE AREAS...WITH WINDS WEAKENING...CONDITIONS MEETING RED FLAG
CRITERIA WERE ONLY ISOLATED...AND CONFINED TO THE MONTECITO AREA.
THEREFORE...HAVE LET THE WARNING EXPIRE AT 3 AM...BUT CONDS WILL BE
NEAR CRITICAL VALUES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST...AND COULD MAKE THEIR WAY NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL VTU COUNTY
BY DAYBREAK. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY...WITH THE MARINE INVERSION AROUND
1200 FEET...IS THAT SOME CLOUDS COULD SPILL INTO THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY FOR A FEW HOURS. N OF PT CONCEPTION...N-S GRADIENTS HAVE
TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON THE STRATUS...AND AT WORST...EXPECT SOME PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS WRN SBA COUNTY THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS...BUT COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE BEACHES OF SRN VTU COUNTY AND WRN L.A.
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL FALL A BIT.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN A BIT...AND THE WRF SHOWS A DECENT
EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...AND CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ALSO PUSH INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...BUT WILL PROBABLY STAY OUT OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND MOST VTU COUNTY VALLEYS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
N-S GRADIENTS WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR ACROSS
THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES
MORE IN MOST AREAS ON MON...WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUE. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT MORE...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...PROBABLY
SPREADING INTO ALL BY THE INTERIOR VLYS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREA.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE EC IS MORE BULLISH THAT THE GFS WITH HEIGHT RISES ON FRI AND
SAT...AND IF TRUE...THIS WOULD BRING A BIT OF WARMING TO THE
REGION...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT
LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1200Z...
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS TIMING FOR CENTRAL
COAST. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP AT KSBP AT ALL.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS FOR KPRB OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP +/- 2 HOURS FROM
12Z TAF TIME.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF. EDDY
CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE IFR STRATUS TO THE NORTH INTO
KOXR BY 13-14Z THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR KSBA THROUGH THIS EVE. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AT KSBA AFTER 09Z THIS EVE. STRATUS SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER
TIME DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS A MODERATE EDDY CIRCULATION CONTINUES. 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KBUR MONDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODEST LLWS AND UDDF AROUND KSBA BETWEEN 21Z-07Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS BECOMING MVFR BETWEEN 12Z-17Z
WITH SCOUR OUT TIME WITHIN AN HOUR OF 17Z THIS MORNING. BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS IFR/LOW MVFR WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...31/410 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GALE WARNING FOR PZZ673-676 HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH NOW ALL OUTER WATERS WILL
UNDER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
AFTER EARLY MONDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AFTER MONDAY
MORNING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS... FOR PZZ645 (POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL) THERE WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BY NOON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE VALID FROM NOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS..WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING. NO MAJOR CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650
(SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT LOCAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 311118
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
341 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY.
HOWEVER...WINDS AT ADVISORY LEVELS HAVE BECOME LOCALIZED...SO WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE 80S
IN THE FOOTHILLS FROM LOS ANGELES COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY
AS OF 3 AM PDT. WHILE RH VALUES WERE HOVERING AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
THESE AREAS...WITH WINDS WEAKENING...CONDITIONS MEETING RED FLAG
CRITERIA WERE ONLY ISOLATED...AND CONFINED TO THE MONTECITO AREA.
THEREFORE...HAVE LET THE WARNING EXPIRE AT 3 AM...BUT CONDS WILL BE
NEAR CRITICAL VALUES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST...AND COULD MAKE THEIR WAY NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL VTU COUNTY
BY DAYBREAK. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY...WITH THE MARINE INVERSION AROUND
1200 FEET...IS THAT SOME CLOUDS COULD SPILL INTO THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY FOR A FEW HOURS. N OF PT CONCEPTION...N-S GRADIENTS HAVE
TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON THE STRATUS...AND AT WORST...EXPECT SOME PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS WRN SBA COUNTY THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS...BUT COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE BEACHES OF SRN VTU COUNTY AND WRN L.A.
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL FALL A BIT.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN A BIT...AND THE WRF SHOWS A DECENT
EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...AND CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ALSO PUSH INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...BUT WILL PROBABLY STAY OUT OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND MOST VTU COUNTY VALLEYS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
N-S GRADIENTS WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR ACROSS
THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES
MORE IN MOST AREAS ON MON...WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUE. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT MORE...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...PROBABLY
SPREADING INTO ALL BY THE INTERIOR VLYS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREA.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE EC IS MORE BULLISH THAT THE GFS WITH HEIGHT RISES ON FRI AND
SAT...AND IF TRUE...THIS WOULD BRING A BIT OF WARMING TO THE
REGION...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT
LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...31/410 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GALE WARNING FOR PZZ673-676 HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH NOW ALL OUTER WATERS WILL
UNDER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
AFTER EARLY MONDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AFTER MONDAY
MORNING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS... FOR PZZ645 (POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL) THERE WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BY NOON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE VALID FROM NOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS..WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING. NO MAJOR CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650
(SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT LOCAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 311118
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
341 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY.
HOWEVER...WINDS AT ADVISORY LEVELS HAVE BECOME LOCALIZED...SO WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE 80S
IN THE FOOTHILLS FROM LOS ANGELES COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY
AS OF 3 AM PDT. WHILE RH VALUES WERE HOVERING AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
THESE AREAS...WITH WINDS WEAKENING...CONDITIONS MEETING RED FLAG
CRITERIA WERE ONLY ISOLATED...AND CONFINED TO THE MONTECITO AREA.
THEREFORE...HAVE LET THE WARNING EXPIRE AT 3 AM...BUT CONDS WILL BE
NEAR CRITICAL VALUES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST...AND COULD MAKE THEIR WAY NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL VTU COUNTY
BY DAYBREAK. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY...WITH THE MARINE INVERSION AROUND
1200 FEET...IS THAT SOME CLOUDS COULD SPILL INTO THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY FOR A FEW HOURS. N OF PT CONCEPTION...N-S GRADIENTS HAVE
TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON THE STRATUS...AND AT WORST...EXPECT SOME PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS WRN SBA COUNTY THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS...BUT COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE BEACHES OF SRN VTU COUNTY AND WRN L.A.
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL FALL A BIT.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN A BIT...AND THE WRF SHOWS A DECENT
EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...AND CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ALSO PUSH INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...BUT WILL PROBABLY STAY OUT OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND MOST VTU COUNTY VALLEYS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
N-S GRADIENTS WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR ACROSS
THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES
MORE IN MOST AREAS ON MON...WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUE. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT MORE...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...PROBABLY
SPREADING INTO ALL BY THE INTERIOR VLYS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREA.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE EC IS MORE BULLISH THAT THE GFS WITH HEIGHT RISES ON FRI AND
SAT...AND IF TRUE...THIS WOULD BRING A BIT OF WARMING TO THE
REGION...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT
LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...31/410 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GALE WARNING FOR PZZ673-676 HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH NOW ALL OUTER WATERS WILL
UNDER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
AFTER EARLY MONDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AFTER MONDAY
MORNING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS... FOR PZZ645 (POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL) THERE WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BY NOON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE VALID FROM NOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS..WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING. NO MAJOR CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650
(SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT LOCAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 310341
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
840 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...THE INTERSTATE FIVE CORRIDOR...AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...IT WAS A RATHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE 90S TO NEAR 100 IN
MANY INLAND AREAS. THE WARMEST OFFICIAL TEMP OBSERVED TODAY WAS 105
DEGREES AT PASO ROBLES. SAUGUS WAS QUITE HOT AS WELL WITH AN
AFTERNOON HIGH OF 104 DEGREES. EVEN WITH THE RATHER HOT TEMPS IN
SOME AREAS...THERE WERE NO RECORD HIGHS ACROSS SWRN CA TODAY.

THE MARINE INVERSION AT LAX WAS AROUND 1000 FEET DEEP EARLY THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE LARGELY ABSENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN EDDY WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOCAL BIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO FORM LOW
CLOUDS AND MOVE THEM TO THE L.A. COUNTY COAST LATER TONIGHT AND TO
THE VTU COUNTY COAST BY MORNING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. GOOD NORTHERLY GRADIENTS (E.G.,
-4.0 MB SBA-SMX AT 03Z) WERE BRINGING GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS TO AREAS
BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SBA S COAST AND
ADJACENT MTNS THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTY NW WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED IN THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. IN THE ANTELOPE VLY...GUSTY W
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THESE AREAS ARE
NOT EXPERIENCING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME
GUSTS APPROACHING THESE LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SUPPORT FOR
INCREASING WINDS THRU THE EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER SWRN CA SUN THRU
LABOR DAY...THEN WEAKEN FOR TUE WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES
INTO CENTRAL CA. EXCEPT FOR VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO SOME OF THE
VLYS...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA
THRU TUE. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS SHOULD AGAIN AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SBA S COAST AND MTNS SUN EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS SHOULD ALSO AFFECT
THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTY W
WINDS IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. HOWEVER...WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER AND BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO BE COOLER BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON SUN...THEN GRADUALLY COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LABOR
DAY AND TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL
LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH
INTO MANY VLY AREAS AS WELL. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING WED INTO
THURSDAY WILL BRING MAX TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LINGER BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...30/800 PM

RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOR SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND INDICATED STRONGER SUNDOWNER WINDS
THIS EVENING. THE BAKERSFIELD TO SANTA BARBARA PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS
MINUS 2.0 LAST NIGHT AND GUSTS WHERE UP TO 25 MPH OVER EAST PORTION
OF THE RANGE AND OVER 30 MPH OVER THE WEST WITH A MINUS 3.5 PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SANTA MARIA AND SANTA BARBARA. THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINUS 3.3 OVER THE EAST PORTION AND MINUS 3.8 OVER
THE WEST TONIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE RIDGE TOPS IN THE
MIDDLE TEENS WITH THE DRY AIR EXPECTED TO DESCEND TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING WITH THE INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/2355Z...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KSMX...
KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB LATER TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 08Z AT KSMX TO AROUND 11Z AT KOXR...KLAX
AND KLGB. HOWEVER...THE TIMING MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...AND THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATER SUN MORNING FOR THESE AIRFIELDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THRU SUN
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON SUN AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM AROUND 11Z-16Z SUN...THEN
DEVELOP AGAIN BY 04Z SUN EVENING. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO...AND THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT THE AIRFIELD THRU EARLY SUN EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU
SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...30/800 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...LOW-END GALE WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS
PZZ673/676 WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THESE
WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT
RANGE. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED BUT MOST LIKELY THE MENTION OF
LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL SUFFICE. FOR PZZ670...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...AND THE WATERS OFF THE
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR PZZ650 AND 645 IF THE GUSTS BECOME
WIDESPREAD.

&&

$$

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/GOMBERG
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
FIRE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 310341
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
840 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...THE INTERSTATE FIVE CORRIDOR...AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...IT WAS A RATHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE 90S TO NEAR 100 IN
MANY INLAND AREAS. THE WARMEST OFFICIAL TEMP OBSERVED TODAY WAS 105
DEGREES AT PASO ROBLES. SAUGUS WAS QUITE HOT AS WELL WITH AN
AFTERNOON HIGH OF 104 DEGREES. EVEN WITH THE RATHER HOT TEMPS IN
SOME AREAS...THERE WERE NO RECORD HIGHS ACROSS SWRN CA TODAY.

THE MARINE INVERSION AT LAX WAS AROUND 1000 FEET DEEP EARLY THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE LARGELY ABSENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN EDDY WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOCAL BIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO FORM LOW
CLOUDS AND MOVE THEM TO THE L.A. COUNTY COAST LATER TONIGHT AND TO
THE VTU COUNTY COAST BY MORNING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. GOOD NORTHERLY GRADIENTS (E.G.,
-4.0 MB SBA-SMX AT 03Z) WERE BRINGING GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS TO AREAS
BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SBA S COAST AND
ADJACENT MTNS THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTY NW WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED IN THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. IN THE ANTELOPE VLY...GUSTY W
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THESE AREAS ARE
NOT EXPERIENCING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME
GUSTS APPROACHING THESE LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SUPPORT FOR
INCREASING WINDS THRU THE EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER SWRN CA SUN THRU
LABOR DAY...THEN WEAKEN FOR TUE WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES
INTO CENTRAL CA. EXCEPT FOR VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO SOME OF THE
VLYS...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA
THRU TUE. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS SHOULD AGAIN AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SBA S COAST AND MTNS SUN EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS SHOULD ALSO AFFECT
THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTY W
WINDS IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. HOWEVER...WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER AND BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO BE COOLER BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON SUN...THEN GRADUALLY COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LABOR
DAY AND TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL
LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH
INTO MANY VLY AREAS AS WELL. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING WED INTO
THURSDAY WILL BRING MAX TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LINGER BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...30/800 PM

RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOR SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND INDICATED STRONGER SUNDOWNER WINDS
THIS EVENING. THE BAKERSFIELD TO SANTA BARBARA PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS
MINUS 2.0 LAST NIGHT AND GUSTS WHERE UP TO 25 MPH OVER EAST PORTION
OF THE RANGE AND OVER 30 MPH OVER THE WEST WITH A MINUS 3.5 PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SANTA MARIA AND SANTA BARBARA. THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINUS 3.3 OVER THE EAST PORTION AND MINUS 3.8 OVER
THE WEST TONIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE RIDGE TOPS IN THE
MIDDLE TEENS WITH THE DRY AIR EXPECTED TO DESCEND TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING WITH THE INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/2355Z...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KSMX...
KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB LATER TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 08Z AT KSMX TO AROUND 11Z AT KOXR...KLAX
AND KLGB. HOWEVER...THE TIMING MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...AND THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATER SUN MORNING FOR THESE AIRFIELDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THRU SUN
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON SUN AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM AROUND 11Z-16Z SUN...THEN
DEVELOP AGAIN BY 04Z SUN EVENING. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO...AND THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT THE AIRFIELD THRU EARLY SUN EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU
SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...30/800 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...LOW-END GALE WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS
PZZ673/676 WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THESE
WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT
RANGE. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED BUT MOST LIKELY THE MENTION OF
LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL SUFFICE. FOR PZZ670...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...AND THE WATERS OFF THE
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR PZZ650 AND 645 IF THE GUSTS BECOME
WIDESPREAD.

&&

$$

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/GOMBERG
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
FIRE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 310000 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BABARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH
INCREASING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN SHORT TERM
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING SUNDOWNER WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

FOR THE SUNDOWNER WINDS...SEEING SOME GOOD UPSTREAM WINDS AND HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR...NO WINDS HAVE REACHED THE SBA SOUTH COAST
AS SANTA BARBARA-SANTA MARIA GRADIENT ONLY AT -1.0 MB. THIS GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND LIKELY
PEAK AROUND SUNSET AT -4 MB. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...THERE WILL BE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. THE
ONLY CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS A PESKY AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THAT IS HUGGING THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM EL CAPITAN BEACH TO
GOLETA. WHILE THIS CLOUD SHOULD DISSIPATE...IT IS INDICATIVE OF A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER THAT MAY HELP MINIMIZE THE SUNDOWNER WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED WARMING IN SANTA BARBARA AND GOLETA. HOWEVER...FURTHER
WEST ACROSS GAVIOTA AND REFUGIO...AND IN THE FOOTHILLS...WINDS ARE
STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER TO
THE EASTERN PORTION (NEAR MONTECITO HILLS) LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. AREAS
EXPOSED TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS WELL AS THE FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY
SEE TEMPERATURES SPIKE INTO THE 90S. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SUNDOWNER WINDS...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PROMPTING THE RED FLAG WARNING.
PLEASE SEE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

OTHER WIND CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR OF THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE
VALLEY...WHERE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR WHITAKER PEAK. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE
ALSO BEEN POSTED FOR THESE AREAS. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT HAS RETURNED
TO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY TODAY...AS WELL AS WARMEST MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

AN EDDY CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO SPIN UP SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...LOCALLY EXTENDING INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY.

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AND
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
DEEPEN A BIT MORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY BEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL
AND VALLEY AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL
LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH
INTO MANY VLY AREAS AS WELL. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING WED INTO
THURSDAY WILL BRING MAX TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LINGER BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...30/300 PM

RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOR SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL END LATE
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND INDICATED STRONGER
SUNDOWNER WINDS THIS EVENING. THE BAKERSFIELD TO SANTA BARBARA
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS MINUS 2.0 LAST NIGHT AND GUSTS WHERE UP TO 25
MPH OVER EAST PORTION OF THE RANGE AND OVER 30 MPH OVER THE WEST
WITH A MINUS 3.5 PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SANTA MARIA AND SANTA
BARBARA. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINUS 3.3 OVER THE EAST
PORTION AND MINUS 3.8 OVER THE WEST TONIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER
THE RIDGE TOPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS AND THE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
DESCEND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND RANGE IN THE
90S TO NEAR 100. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SLOPES. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE DESERT AND I-5 CORRIDOR.

&&

.AVIATION...30/2355Z...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KSMX...
KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB LATER TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 08Z AT KSMX TO AROUND 11Z AT KOXR...KLAX
AND KLGB. HOWEVER...THE TIMING MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...AND THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATER SUN MORNING FOR THESE AIRFIELDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THRU SUN
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON SUN AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM AROUND 11Z-16Z SUN...THEN
DEVELOP AGAIN BY 04Z SUN EVENING. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO...AND THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT THE AIRFIELD THRU EARLY SUN EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU
SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PZZ673/676 AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR PZZ670...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS
WELL AS THE WATERS OFF THE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. THERE
IS A 40% CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON EVENING ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

$$

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...RAT
FIRE...30
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 310000 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BABARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH
INCREASING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN SHORT TERM
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING SUNDOWNER WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

FOR THE SUNDOWNER WINDS...SEEING SOME GOOD UPSTREAM WINDS AND HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR...NO WINDS HAVE REACHED THE SBA SOUTH COAST
AS SANTA BARBARA-SANTA MARIA GRADIENT ONLY AT -1.0 MB. THIS GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND LIKELY
PEAK AROUND SUNSET AT -4 MB. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...THERE WILL BE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. THE
ONLY CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS A PESKY AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THAT IS HUGGING THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM EL CAPITAN BEACH TO
GOLETA. WHILE THIS CLOUD SHOULD DISSIPATE...IT IS INDICATIVE OF A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER THAT MAY HELP MINIMIZE THE SUNDOWNER WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED WARMING IN SANTA BARBARA AND GOLETA. HOWEVER...FURTHER
WEST ACROSS GAVIOTA AND REFUGIO...AND IN THE FOOTHILLS...WINDS ARE
STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER TO
THE EASTERN PORTION (NEAR MONTECITO HILLS) LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. AREAS
EXPOSED TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS WELL AS THE FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY
SEE TEMPERATURES SPIKE INTO THE 90S. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SUNDOWNER WINDS...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PROMPTING THE RED FLAG WARNING.
PLEASE SEE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

OTHER WIND CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR OF THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE
VALLEY...WHERE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR WHITAKER PEAK. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE
ALSO BEEN POSTED FOR THESE AREAS. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT HAS RETURNED
TO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY TODAY...AS WELL AS WARMEST MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

AN EDDY CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO SPIN UP SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...LOCALLY EXTENDING INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY.

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AND
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
DEEPEN A BIT MORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY BEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL
AND VALLEY AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL
LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH
INTO MANY VLY AREAS AS WELL. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING WED INTO
THURSDAY WILL BRING MAX TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LINGER BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...30/300 PM

RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOR SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL END LATE
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND INDICATED STRONGER
SUNDOWNER WINDS THIS EVENING. THE BAKERSFIELD TO SANTA BARBARA
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS MINUS 2.0 LAST NIGHT AND GUSTS WHERE UP TO 25
MPH OVER EAST PORTION OF THE RANGE AND OVER 30 MPH OVER THE WEST
WITH A MINUS 3.5 PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SANTA MARIA AND SANTA
BARBARA. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINUS 3.3 OVER THE EAST
PORTION AND MINUS 3.8 OVER THE WEST TONIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER
THE RIDGE TOPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS AND THE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
DESCEND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND RANGE IN THE
90S TO NEAR 100. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SLOPES. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE DESERT AND I-5 CORRIDOR.

&&

.AVIATION...30/2355Z...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KSMX...
KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB LATER TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 08Z AT KSMX TO AROUND 11Z AT KOXR...KLAX
AND KLGB. HOWEVER...THE TIMING MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...AND THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATER SUN MORNING FOR THESE AIRFIELDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THRU SUN
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON SUN AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM AROUND 11Z-16Z SUN...THEN
DEVELOP AGAIN BY 04Z SUN EVENING. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO...AND THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT THE AIRFIELD THRU EARLY SUN EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU
SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PZZ673/676 AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR PZZ670...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS
WELL AS THE WATERS OFF THE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. THERE
IS A 40% CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON EVENING ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

$$

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...RAT
FIRE...30
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 302118
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BABARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH
INCREASING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING SUNDOWNER
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPPER
LEVEL WIND SUPPORT INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

FOR THE SUNDOWNER WINDS...SEEING SOME GOOD UPSTREAM WINDS AND HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR...NO WINDS HAVE REACHED THE SBA SOUTH COAST
AS SANTA BARBARA-SANTA MARIA GRADIENT ONLY AT -1.0 MB. THIS GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND LIKELY
PEAK AROUND SUNSET AT -4 MB. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...THERE WILL BE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WIND
SUPPORT. THE ONLY CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS A PESKY AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG THAT IS HUGGING THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM EL CAPITAIN BEACH
TO GOLETA. WHILE THIS CLOUD SHOULD DISSIPATE...IT IS INDICATIVE
OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER THAT MAY HELP MINIMIZE THE SUNDOWNER WINDS
AND ASSOCIATED WARMING IN SANTA BARBARA AND GOLETA. HOWEVER...FURTHER
WEST ACROSS GAVIOTA AND REFUGIO...AND IN THE FOOTHILLS...WINDS ARE STILL
ON TRACK TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS
IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER TO THE
EASTERN PORTION (NEAR MONTECITO HILLS) LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. AREAS
EXPOSED TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS WELL AS THE FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY
SEE TEMPERATURES SPIKE INTO THE 90S. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SUNDOWNER WINDS...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PROMPTING THE RED FLAG WARNING.
PLEASE SEE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

OTHER WIND CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR OF THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE
VALLEY...WHERE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR WHITAKER PEAK. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE
ALSO BEEN POSTED FOR THESE AREAS. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT HAS RETURNED
TO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY TODAY...AS WELL AS WARMEST MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS.


AN EDDY CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO SPIN UP SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...LOCALLY EXTENDING INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY.

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AND
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
DEEPEN A BIT MORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY BEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL
AND VALLEY AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH INTO MANY
VLY AREAS AS WELL. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING WED INTO THURSDAY
WILL BRING MAX TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY LINGER BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...30/300 PM

RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOR SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL END LATE
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND INDICATED STRONGER
SUNDOWNER WINDS THIS EVENING. THE BAKERSFIELD TO SANTA BARBARA
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS MINUS 2.0 LAST NIGHT AND GUSTS WHERE UP TO 25
MPH OVER EAST PORTION OF THE RANGE AND OVER 30 MPH OVER THE WEST
WITH A MINUS 3.5 PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SANTA MARIA AND SANTA
BARBARA. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINUS 3.3 OVER THE EAST
PORTION AND MINUS 3.8 OVER THE WEST TONIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER
THE RIDGE TOPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS AND THE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
DESCEND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND RANGE IN THE
90S TO NEAR 100. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SLOPES. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE DESERT AND I-5 CORRIDOR.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1645Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. STRATUS
DISSIPATING NICELY AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL SITES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LIMITED STRATUS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION (LIFR/VLIFR CONDS LIKELY AT KSMX) AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR
KLAX/KLGB/KOXR.

OTHER ISSUE TO WATCH WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. ALSO...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THRU THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE...RESULTING IN MODERATE LLWS/TURBULENCE FOR KSBA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CIGS
TO AIRFIELD TONIGHT COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 11Z FORECAST.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF MVFR
VSBYS LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 11Z).

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PZZ673/676 AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR PZZ670...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS
WELL AS THE WATERS OFF THE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. THERE
IS A 40% CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON EVENING ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

$$

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...30
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES























000
FXUS66 KLOX 302118
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BABARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH
INCREASING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING SUNDOWNER
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPPER
LEVEL WIND SUPPORT INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

FOR THE SUNDOWNER WINDS...SEEING SOME GOOD UPSTREAM WINDS AND HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR...NO WINDS HAVE REACHED THE SBA SOUTH COAST
AS SANTA BARBARA-SANTA MARIA GRADIENT ONLY AT -1.0 MB. THIS GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND LIKELY
PEAK AROUND SUNSET AT -4 MB. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...THERE WILL BE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WIND
SUPPORT. THE ONLY CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS A PESKY AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG THAT IS HUGGING THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM EL CAPITAIN BEACH
TO GOLETA. WHILE THIS CLOUD SHOULD DISSIPATE...IT IS INDICATIVE
OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER THAT MAY HELP MINIMIZE THE SUNDOWNER WINDS
AND ASSOCIATED WARMING IN SANTA BARBARA AND GOLETA. HOWEVER...FURTHER
WEST ACROSS GAVIOTA AND REFUGIO...AND IN THE FOOTHILLS...WINDS ARE STILL
ON TRACK TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS
IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER TO THE
EASTERN PORTION (NEAR MONTECITO HILLS) LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. AREAS
EXPOSED TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS WELL AS THE FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY
SEE TEMPERATURES SPIKE INTO THE 90S. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SUNDOWNER WINDS...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PROMPTING THE RED FLAG WARNING.
PLEASE SEE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

OTHER WIND CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR OF THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE
VALLEY...WHERE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR WHITAKER PEAK. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE
ALSO BEEN POSTED FOR THESE AREAS. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT HAS RETURNED
TO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY TODAY...AS WELL AS WARMEST MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS.


AN EDDY CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO SPIN UP SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...LOCALLY EXTENDING INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY.

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AND
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
DEEPEN A BIT MORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY BEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL
AND VALLEY AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH INTO MANY
VLY AREAS AS WELL. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING WED INTO THURSDAY
WILL BRING MAX TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY LINGER BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...30/300 PM

RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOR SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL END LATE
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND INDICATED STRONGER
SUNDOWNER WINDS THIS EVENING. THE BAKERSFIELD TO SANTA BARBARA
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS MINUS 2.0 LAST NIGHT AND GUSTS WHERE UP TO 25
MPH OVER EAST PORTION OF THE RANGE AND OVER 30 MPH OVER THE WEST
WITH A MINUS 3.5 PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SANTA MARIA AND SANTA
BARBARA. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINUS 3.3 OVER THE EAST
PORTION AND MINUS 3.8 OVER THE WEST TONIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER
THE RIDGE TOPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS AND THE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
DESCEND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND RANGE IN THE
90S TO NEAR 100. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SLOPES. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE DESERT AND I-5 CORRIDOR.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1645Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. STRATUS
DISSIPATING NICELY AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL SITES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LIMITED STRATUS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION (LIFR/VLIFR CONDS LIKELY AT KSMX) AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR
KLAX/KLGB/KOXR.

OTHER ISSUE TO WATCH WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. ALSO...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THRU THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE...RESULTING IN MODERATE LLWS/TURBULENCE FOR KSBA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CIGS
TO AIRFIELD TONIGHT COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 11Z FORECAST.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF MVFR
VSBYS LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 11Z).

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PZZ673/676 AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR PZZ670...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS
WELL AS THE WATERS OFF THE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. THERE
IS A 40% CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON EVENING ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

$$

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...30
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
























000
FXUS66 KLOX 301938
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1237 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BABARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH AND
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL
AND VALLEY AREAS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING SUNDOWNER
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE INTERSTATE5 CORRIDOR OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL
WIND SUPPORT INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

FOR THE SUNDOWNER WINDS...12Z NAM MODEL INDICATING THE SANTA
BARBARA-SANTA MARIA GRADIENT INCREASING TO BETWEEN -4 AND -4.5 MB
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL WIND
SUPPORT IS STRONGER WITH THIS EVENT AS COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE
OF NIGHTS...RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
WIND EVENT. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 3 AM TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH EXPECTED. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER TO THE EASTERN PORTION (NEAR
MONTECITO HILLS) LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS SUNDOWNER EVENT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. 12Z
VANDENBERG SOUNDING SHOWING MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAS SHRUNK TO AROUND
800 FEET WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATEST NAM
950 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE 34 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER
THE SBA SOUTH COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 90S ACROSS DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PROMPTING THE
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING. PLEASE SEE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.

OTHER WIND CONCERN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR OF THE LA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR WHITAKER
PEAK. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN POSTED FOR THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN WARMEST INTERIOR
SECTIONS TODAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
FORCE THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. THE WRF SHOWS A
WEAK EDDY CRCLN TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND WILL PROBABLY SPREAD
INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VLY LATE TONIGHT. THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY
WILL REMAIN CLEAR. N OF PT CONCEPTION...NLY GRADIENTS MAY BRING SOME
REDUCTION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SLO COUNTY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY.

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AND
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
DEEPEN A BIT MORE...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND WILL
PROBABLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A BIT MORE
ON MONDAY IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST
TUE THROUGH FRI. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH INTO MANY
VLY AREAS AS WELL. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING ON TUE AND WED WILL
BRING MAX TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS...THEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THU. THE EC SUGGESTS SOME
WARMING ON FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AS HEIGHTS RISE A
BIT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...30/300 PM

RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOR SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL END LATE
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND INDICATED STRONGER
SUNDOWNER WINDS THIS EVENING. THE BAKERFIELD TO SANTA BARBARA
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS MINUS 2.0 LAST NIGHT AND GUSTS WHERE UP TO 25
MPH OVER EAST PORTION OF THE RANGE AND OVER 30 MPH OVER THE WEST
WITH A MINUS 3.5 PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SANTA MARIA AND SANTA
BARBARA. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINUS 3.3 OVER THE EAST
PORTIN AND MINUS 3.8 OVER THE WEST TONIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER
THE RIDGE TOPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS AND THE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
DESCEND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND RANGE IN THE
90S TO NEAR 100. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SLOPES. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE DESERT AND I-5 CORRIDORE.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1645Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. STRATUS
DISSIPATING NICELY AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL SITES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LIMITED STRATUS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION (LIFR/VLIFR CONDS LIKELY AT KSMX) AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR
KLAX/KLGB/KOXR.

OTHER ISSUE TO WATCH WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. ALSO...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THRU THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE...RESULTING IN MODERATE LLWS/TURBULENCE FOR KSBA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CIGS
TO AIRFIELD TONIGHT COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 11Z FORECAST.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF MVFR
VSBYS LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 11Z).

&&

.MARINE...30/800 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PZZ673/676 AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR PZZ670...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS
WELL AS THE WATERS OFF THE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL YET AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&



$$

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...30
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




















000
FXUS66 KLOX 301938
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1237 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BABARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH AND
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL
AND VALLEY AREAS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING SUNDOWNER
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE INTERSTATE5 CORRIDOR OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL
WIND SUPPORT INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

FOR THE SUNDOWNER WINDS...12Z NAM MODEL INDICATING THE SANTA
BARBARA-SANTA MARIA GRADIENT INCREASING TO BETWEEN -4 AND -4.5 MB
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL WIND
SUPPORT IS STRONGER WITH THIS EVENT AS COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE
OF NIGHTS...RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
WIND EVENT. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 3 AM TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH EXPECTED. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER TO THE EASTERN PORTION (NEAR
MONTECITO HILLS) LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS SUNDOWNER EVENT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. 12Z
VANDENBERG SOUNDING SHOWING MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAS SHRUNK TO AROUND
800 FEET WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATEST NAM
950 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE 34 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER
THE SBA SOUTH COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 90S ACROSS DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PROMPTING THE
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING. PLEASE SEE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.

OTHER WIND CONCERN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR OF THE LA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR WHITAKER
PEAK. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN POSTED FOR THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN WARMEST INTERIOR
SECTIONS TODAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
FORCE THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. THE WRF SHOWS A
WEAK EDDY CRCLN TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND WILL PROBABLY SPREAD
INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VLY LATE TONIGHT. THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY
WILL REMAIN CLEAR. N OF PT CONCEPTION...NLY GRADIENTS MAY BRING SOME
REDUCTION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SLO COUNTY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY.

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AND
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
DEEPEN A BIT MORE...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND WILL
PROBABLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A BIT MORE
ON MONDAY IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST
TUE THROUGH FRI. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH INTO MANY
VLY AREAS AS WELL. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING ON TUE AND WED WILL
BRING MAX TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS...THEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THU. THE EC SUGGESTS SOME
WARMING ON FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AS HEIGHTS RISE A
BIT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...30/300 PM

RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOR SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL END LATE
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND INDICATED STRONGER
SUNDOWNER WINDS THIS EVENING. THE BAKERFIELD TO SANTA BARBARA
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS MINUS 2.0 LAST NIGHT AND GUSTS WHERE UP TO 25
MPH OVER EAST PORTION OF THE RANGE AND OVER 30 MPH OVER THE WEST
WITH A MINUS 3.5 PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SANTA MARIA AND SANTA
BARBARA. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINUS 3.3 OVER THE EAST
PORTIN AND MINUS 3.8 OVER THE WEST TONIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER
THE RIDGE TOPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS AND THE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
DESCEND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND RANGE IN THE
90S TO NEAR 100. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SLOPES. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE DESERT AND I-5 CORRIDORE.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1645Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. STRATUS
DISSIPATING NICELY AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL SITES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LIMITED STRATUS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION (LIFR/VLIFR CONDS LIKELY AT KSMX) AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR
KLAX/KLGB/KOXR.

OTHER ISSUE TO WATCH WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. ALSO...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THRU THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE...RESULTING IN MODERATE LLWS/TURBULENCE FOR KSBA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CIGS
TO AIRFIELD TONIGHT COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 11Z FORECAST.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF MVFR
VSBYS LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 11Z).

&&

.MARINE...30/800 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PZZ673/676 AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR PZZ670...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS
WELL AS THE WATERS OFF THE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL YET AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&



$$

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...30
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





















000
FXUS66 KLOX 301734
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1003 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BABARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH AND
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL
AND VALLEY AREAS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING SUNDOWNER
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE INTERSTATE5 CORRIDOR OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL
WIND SUPPORT INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

FOR THE SUNDOWNER WINDS...12Z NAM MODEL INDICATING THE SANTA
BARBARA-SANTA MARIA GRADIENT INCREASING TO BETWEEN -4 AND -4.5 MB
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL WIND
SUPPORT IS STRONGER WITH THIS EVENT AS COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE
OF NIGHTS...RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
WIND EVENT. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 3 AM TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH EXPECTED. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER TO THE EASTERN PORTION (NEAR
MONTECITO HILLS) LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS SUNDOWNER EVENT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. 12Z
VANDENBERG SOUNDING SHOWING MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAS SHRUNK TO AROUND
800 FEET WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATEST NAM
950 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE 34 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER
THE SBA SOUTH COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 90S ACROSS DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PROMPTING THE
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING. PLEASE SEE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.

OTHER WIND CONCERN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR OF THE LA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR WHITAKER
PEAK. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN POSTED FOR THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN WARMEST INTERIOR
SECTIONS TODAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
FORCE THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. THE WRF SHOWS A
WEAK EDDY CRCLN TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND WILL PROBABLY SPREAD
INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VLY LATE TONIGHT. THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY
WILL REMAIN CLEAR. N OF PT CONCEPTION...NLY GRADIENTS MAY BRING SOME
REDUCTION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SLO COUNTY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY.

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AND
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
DEEPEN A BIT MORE...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND WILL
PROBABLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A BIT MORE
ON MONDAY IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST
TUE THROUGH FRI. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH INTO MANY
VLY AREAS AS WELL. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING ON TUE AND WED WILL
BRING MAX TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS...THEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THU. THE EC SUGGESTS SOME
WARMING ON FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AS HEIGHTS RISE A
BIT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...30/900 AM

HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOR SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL END LATE
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND INDICATED STRONG
SUNDOWNER WINDS THIS EVENING. THE BAKERFIELD TO SANTA BARBARA
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS MINUS 2.0 LAST NIGHT AND GUSTS WHERE UP TO 25
MPH OVER EAST PORTION OF THE RANGE AND OVER 30 MPH OVER THE EAST
PORTION. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINUS 3.3 TONIGHT. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OVER THE RIDGE TOPS IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE
TEENS TODAY AND THE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ASCEND TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND RANGE IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE SLOPES. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY EXIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE DESERT AND I-5
CORRIDORE.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1645Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. STRATUS
DISSIPATING NICELY AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL SITES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LIMITED STRATUS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION (LIFR/VLIFR CONDS LIKELY AT KSMX) AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR
KLAX/KLGB/KOXR.

OTHER ISSUE TO WATCH WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. ALSO...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THRU THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE...RESULTING IN MODERATE LLWS/TURBULENCE FOR KSBA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CIGS
TO AIRFIELD TONIGHT COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 11Z FORECAST.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF MVFR
VSBYS LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 11Z).

&&

.MARINE...30/800 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PZZ673/676 AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR PZZ670...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS
WELL AS THE WATERS OFF THE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL YET AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&



$$

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...30
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

















000
FXUS66 KLOX 301734
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1003 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BABARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH AND
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL
AND VALLEY AREAS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING SUNDOWNER
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE INTERSTATE5 CORRIDOR OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL
WIND SUPPORT INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

FOR THE SUNDOWNER WINDS...12Z NAM MODEL INDICATING THE SANTA
BARBARA-SANTA MARIA GRADIENT INCREASING TO BETWEEN -4 AND -4.5 MB
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL WIND
SUPPORT IS STRONGER WITH THIS EVENT AS COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE
OF NIGHTS...RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
WIND EVENT. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 3 AM TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH EXPECTED. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER TO THE EASTERN PORTION (NEAR
MONTECITO HILLS) LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS SUNDOWNER EVENT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. 12Z
VANDENBERG SOUNDING SHOWING MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAS SHRUNK TO AROUND
800 FEET WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATEST NAM
950 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE 34 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER
THE SBA SOUTH COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 90S ACROSS DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PROMPTING THE
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING. PLEASE SEE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.

OTHER WIND CONCERN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR OF THE LA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR WHITAKER
PEAK. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN POSTED FOR THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN WARMEST INTERIOR
SECTIONS TODAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
FORCE THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. THE WRF SHOWS A
WEAK EDDY CRCLN TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND WILL PROBABLY SPREAD
INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VLY LATE TONIGHT. THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY
WILL REMAIN CLEAR. N OF PT CONCEPTION...NLY GRADIENTS MAY BRING SOME
REDUCTION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SLO COUNTY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY.

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AND
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
DEEPEN A BIT MORE...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND WILL
PROBABLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A BIT MORE
ON MONDAY IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST
TUE THROUGH FRI. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH INTO MANY
VLY AREAS AS WELL. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING ON TUE AND WED WILL
BRING MAX TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS...THEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THU. THE EC SUGGESTS SOME
WARMING ON FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AS HEIGHTS RISE A
BIT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...30/900 AM

HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOR SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL END LATE
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND INDICATED STRONG
SUNDOWNER WINDS THIS EVENING. THE BAKERFIELD TO SANTA BARBARA
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS MINUS 2.0 LAST NIGHT AND GUSTS WHERE UP TO 25
MPH OVER EAST PORTION OF THE RANGE AND OVER 30 MPH OVER THE EAST
PORTION. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINUS 3.3 TONIGHT. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OVER THE RIDGE TOPS IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE
TEENS TODAY AND THE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ASCEND TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND RANGE IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE SLOPES. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY EXIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE DESERT AND I-5
CORRIDORE.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1645Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. STRATUS
DISSIPATING NICELY AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL SITES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LIMITED STRATUS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION (LIFR/VLIFR CONDS LIKELY AT KSMX) AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR
KLAX/KLGB/KOXR.

OTHER ISSUE TO WATCH WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. ALSO...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THRU THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE...RESULTING IN MODERATE LLWS/TURBULENCE FOR KSBA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CIGS
TO AIRFIELD TONIGHT COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 11Z FORECAST.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF MVFR
VSBYS LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 11Z).

&&

.MARINE...30/800 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PZZ673/676 AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR PZZ670...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS
WELL AS THE WATERS OFF THE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL YET AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&



$$

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...30
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


















000
FXUS66 KLOX 301301
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
545 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BABARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
GRADUAL COOLING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WAS
SOMEWHAT MORE SHALLOW NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO...WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOME DENSE FOG TO FORM. DENSE FOG WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADVISORIES. S OF PT CONCEPTION...
STRATUS WAS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE COAST TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO PUSH INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK...BUT OFFSHORE N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS FROM
REACHING THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE
MARINE INVERSION WAS JUST UNDER 1000 FEET NEAR KLAX THIS MORNING.
WITH ONLY WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENTS...DO NOT THINK CLOUDS WILL PUSH
INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VLY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. ALTHOUGH
HEIGHTS FALL A BIT TODAY...TEMPS AT 950 MB ACTUALLY EDGE
UPWARD...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER. THEREFORE...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE RATHER SIMILAR TO THOSE ON FRI IN MOST AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES...WHERE BETTER
NORTHERLY GRADIENTS SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING...
ESPECIALLY TO INLAND AREAS AND THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST.

STEEPENING N-S GRADIENTS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SBA COUNTY
AND THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS SHOULD CAUSE GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
TO REACH LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT S COAST OF
SBA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. THE NLY WINDS COULD
BRING TEMPS BRIEFLY INTO THE 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE S COAST OF
SBA COUNTY NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...HIGH TEMPS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE WIND ADVISORY AREAS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
FORCE THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. THE WRF SHOWS A
WEAK EDDY CRCLN TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND WILL PROBABLY SPREAD
INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VLY LATE TONIGHT. THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY
WILL REMAIN CLEAR. N OF PT CONCEPTION...NLY GRADIENTS MAY BRING SOME
REDUCTION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SLO COUNTY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY.

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AND
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
DEEPEN A BIT MORE...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND WILL
PROBABLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A BIT MORE
ON MONDAY IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST
TUE THROUGH FRI. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH INTO MANY
VLY AREAS AS WELL. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING ON TUE AND WED WILL
BRING MAX TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS...THEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THU. THE EC SUGGESTS SOME
WARMING ON FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AS HEIGHTS RISE A
BIT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1245Z...

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY BY MID MORNING...AND BY LATE
MORNING ON THE COAST.

S OF PT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS LA COUNTY COAST BY 14Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CIGS ACROSS
VENTURA COUNTY COAST TO BECOME IFR AFTER 15Z. 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
SCOUR OUT AS LATE AS 19Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT KSBA WILL REMAIN
VFR TODAY. BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT EDDY WILL HELP TO BRING IN LOW
CLOUDS BEFORE 08Z TO LA COUNTY COAST AND THEN SPREAD NORTH INTO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST BY 09Z. DUE TO SUNDOWNER WINDS FOR KSBA...GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR OR MVFR HZ AFTER 10Z SUNDAY
MORNING. GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT...WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSBA.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF...WITH IFR CONDS BECOMING
MVFR BY 15Z BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL RE-DEVELOP AFTER 08Z TONIGHT DUE TO
STRONGER EDDY.


KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
OR VSBYS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...30/335 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR PZZ670
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT FOR ZONES PZZ-676 LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES VALID
FROM 3 PM TO 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS..
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CALM DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY W TO NW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. 70 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...30/515 AM.
GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES AND
CANYONS OF SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 MPH.
WIND EXPOSED LOCATIONS AND FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY WILL GENERALLY HAVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO 90 DEGREES OR ABOVE. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SUNDOWNER
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BRING ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER TO THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO IMPACT THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN ANTELOPE
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 40
AND 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.


.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
FIRE...GOMBERG/DB
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 301301
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
545 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BABARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
GRADUAL COOLING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WAS
SOMEWHAT MORE SHALLOW NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO...WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOME DENSE FOG TO FORM. DENSE FOG WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADVISORIES. S OF PT CONCEPTION...
STRATUS WAS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE COAST TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO PUSH INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK...BUT OFFSHORE N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS FROM
REACHING THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE
MARINE INVERSION WAS JUST UNDER 1000 FEET NEAR KLAX THIS MORNING.
WITH ONLY WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENTS...DO NOT THINK CLOUDS WILL PUSH
INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VLY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. ALTHOUGH
HEIGHTS FALL A BIT TODAY...TEMPS AT 950 MB ACTUALLY EDGE
UPWARD...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER. THEREFORE...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE RATHER SIMILAR TO THOSE ON FRI IN MOST AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES...WHERE BETTER
NORTHERLY GRADIENTS SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING...
ESPECIALLY TO INLAND AREAS AND THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST.

STEEPENING N-S GRADIENTS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SBA COUNTY
AND THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS SHOULD CAUSE GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
TO REACH LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT S COAST OF
SBA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. THE NLY WINDS COULD
BRING TEMPS BRIEFLY INTO THE 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE S COAST OF
SBA COUNTY NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...HIGH TEMPS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE WIND ADVISORY AREAS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
FORCE THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. THE WRF SHOWS A
WEAK EDDY CRCLN TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND WILL PROBABLY SPREAD
INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VLY LATE TONIGHT. THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY
WILL REMAIN CLEAR. N OF PT CONCEPTION...NLY GRADIENTS MAY BRING SOME
REDUCTION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SLO COUNTY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY.

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AND
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
DEEPEN A BIT MORE...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND WILL
PROBABLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A BIT MORE
ON MONDAY IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST
TUE THROUGH FRI. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH INTO MANY
VLY AREAS AS WELL. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING ON TUE AND WED WILL
BRING MAX TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS...THEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THU. THE EC SUGGESTS SOME
WARMING ON FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AS HEIGHTS RISE A
BIT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1245Z...

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY BY MID MORNING...AND BY LATE
MORNING ON THE COAST.

S OF PT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS LA COUNTY COAST BY 14Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CIGS ACROSS
VENTURA COUNTY COAST TO BECOME IFR AFTER 15Z. 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
SCOUR OUT AS LATE AS 19Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT KSBA WILL REMAIN
VFR TODAY. BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT EDDY WILL HELP TO BRING IN LOW
CLOUDS BEFORE 08Z TO LA COUNTY COAST AND THEN SPREAD NORTH INTO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST BY 09Z. DUE TO SUNDOWNER WINDS FOR KSBA...GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR OR MVFR HZ AFTER 10Z SUNDAY
MORNING. GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT...WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSBA.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF...WITH IFR CONDS BECOMING
MVFR BY 15Z BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL RE-DEVELOP AFTER 08Z TONIGHT DUE TO
STRONGER EDDY.


KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
OR VSBYS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...30/335 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR PZZ670
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT FOR ZONES PZZ-676 LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES VALID
FROM 3 PM TO 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS..
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CALM DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY W TO NW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. 70 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...30/515 AM.
GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES AND
CANYONS OF SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 MPH.
WIND EXPOSED LOCATIONS AND FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY WILL GENERALLY HAVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO 90 DEGREES OR ABOVE. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SUNDOWNER
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BRING ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER TO THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO IMPACT THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN ANTELOPE
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 40
AND 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.


.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
FIRE...GOMBERG/DB
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 301251
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
545 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BABARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
GRADUAL COOLING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WAS
SOMEWHAT MORE SHALLOW NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO...WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOME DENSE FOG TO FORM. DENSE FOG WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADVISORIES. S OF PT CONCEPTION...
STRATUS WAS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE COAST TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO PUSH INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK...BUT OFFSHORE N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS FROM
REACHING THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE
MARINE INVERSION WAS JUST UNDER 1000 FEET NEAR KLAX THIS MORNING.
WITH ONLY WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENTS...DO NOT THINK CLOUDS WILL PUSH
INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VLY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. ALTHOUGH
HEIGHTS FALL A BIT TODAY...TEMPS AT 950 MB ACTUALLY EDGE
UPWARD...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER. THEREFORE...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE RATHER SIMILAR TO THOSE ON FRI IN MOST AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES...WHERE BETTER
NORTHERLY GRADIENTS SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING...
ESPECIALLY TO INLAND AREAS AND THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST.

STEEPENING N-S GRADIENTS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SBA COUNTY
AND THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS SHOULD CAUSE GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
TO REACH LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT S COAST OF
SBA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. THE NLY WINDS COULD
BRING TEMPS BRIEFLY INTO THE 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE S COAST OF
SBA COUNTY NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...HIGH TEMPS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE WIND ADVISORY AREAS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
FORCE THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. THE WRF SHOWS A
WEAK EDDY CRCLN TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND WILL PROBABLY SPREAD
INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VLY LATE TONIGHT. THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY
WILL REMAIN CLEAR. N OF PT CONCEPTION...NLY GRADIENTS MAY BRING SOME
REDUCTION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SLO COUNTY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY.

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AND
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
DEEPEN A BIT MORE...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND WILL
PROBABLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A BIT MORE
ON MONDAY IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST
TUE THROUGH FRI. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH INTO MANY
VLY AREAS AS WELL. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING ON TUE AND WED WILL
BRING MAX TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS...THEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THU. THE EC SUGGESTS SOME
WARMING ON FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AS HEIGHTS RISE A
BIT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1245Z...

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY BY MID MORNING...AND BY LATE
MORNING ON THE COAST.

S OF PT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS LA COUNTY COAST BY 14Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CIGS ACROSS
VENTURA COUNTY COAST TO BECOME IFR AFTER 15Z. 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
SCOUR OUT AS LATE AS 19Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT KSBA WILL REMAIN
VFR TODAY. BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT EDDY WILL HELP TO BRING IN LOW
CLOUDS BEFORE 08Z TO LA COUNTY COAST AND THEN SPREAD NORTH INTO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST BY 09Z. DUE TO SUNDOWNER WINDS FOR KSBA...GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR OR MVFR HZ AFTER 10Z SUNDAY
MORNING. GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT...WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSBA.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF...WITH IFR CONDS BECOMING
MVFR BY 15Z BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL RE-DEVELOP AFTER 08Z TONIGHT DUE TO
STRONGER EDDY.


KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
OR VSBYS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...30/335 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR PZZ670
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT FOR ZONES PZZ-676 LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES VALID
FROM 3 PM TO 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS..
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CALM DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY W TO NW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. 70 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 301244
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
545 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BABARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
GRADUAL COOLING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WAS
SOMEWHAT MORE SHALLOW NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO...WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOME DENSE FOG TO FORM. DENSE FOG WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADVISORIES. S OF PT CONCEPTION...
STRATUS WAS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE OF THE COAST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO PUSH INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK...BUT OFFSHORE N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS
FROM REACHING THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE
MARINE INVERSION WAS JUST UNDER 1000 FEET NEAR KLAX THIS MORNING.
WITH ONLY WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENTS...DO NOT THINK CLOUDS WILL PUSH
INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VLY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. ALTHOUGH
HEIGHTS FALL A BIT TODAY...TEMPS AT 950 MB ACTUALLY EDGE
UPWARD...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER. THEREFORE...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE RATHER SIMILAR TO THOSE ON FRI IN MOST AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES...WHERE BETTER
NORTHERLY GRADIENTS SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING...
ESPECIALLY TO INLAND AREAS.

STEEPENING N-S GRADIENTS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SBA COUNTY
AND THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS SHOULD CAUSE GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
TO REACH LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT S COAST OF
SBA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. THE NLY WINDS COULD
BRING TEMPS BRIEFLY INTO THE 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE S COAST OF
SBA COUNTIES NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...HIGH TEMPS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE WIND ADVISORY AREAS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL FORCE THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. THE WRF SHOWS A WEAK EDDY CRCLN
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS
OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND WILL PROBABLY SPREAD INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VLY LATE TONIGHT. THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY WILL REMAIN
CLEAR. N OF PT CONCEPTION...NLY GRADIENTS MAY BRING SOME REDUCTION
TO THE LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SLO COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE DOWN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS IN SUNDAY.

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AND
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
DEEPEN A BIT MORE...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND WILL
PROBABLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A BIT MORE
ON MONDAY IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST
TUE THROUGH FRI. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH INTO MANY
VLY AREAS AS WELL. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING ON TUE AND WED WILL
BRING MAX TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS...THEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THU. THE EC SUGGESTS SOME
WARMING ON FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AS HEIGHTS RISE A
BIT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1245Z...

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY BY MID MORNING...AND BY LATE
MORNING ON THE COAST.

S OF PT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS LA COUNTY COAST BY 14Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CIGS ACROSS
VENTURA COUNTY COAST TO BECOME IFR AFTER 15Z. 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
SCOUR OUT AS LATE AS 19Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT KSBA WILL REMAIN
VFR TODAY. BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT EDDY WILL HELP TO BRING IN LOW
CLOUDS BEFORE 08Z TO LA COUNTY COAST AND THEN SPREAD NORTH INTO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST BY 09Z. DUE TO SUNDOWNER WINDS FOR KSBA...GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR OR MVFR HZ AFTER 10Z SUNDAY
MORNING. GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT...WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSBA.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF...WITH IFR CONDS BECOMING
MVFR BY 15Z BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL RE-DEVELOP AFTER 08Z TONIGHT DUE TO
STRONGER EDDY.


KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
OR VSBYS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...30/335 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR PZZ670
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT FOR ZONES PZZ-676 LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES VALID
FROM 3 PM TO 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS..
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CALM DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY W TO NW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. 70 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 301244
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
545 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BABARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
GRADUAL COOLING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WAS
SOMEWHAT MORE SHALLOW NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO...WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOME DENSE FOG TO FORM. DENSE FOG WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADVISORIES. S OF PT CONCEPTION...
STRATUS WAS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE OF THE COAST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO PUSH INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK...BUT OFFSHORE N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS
FROM REACHING THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE
MARINE INVERSION WAS JUST UNDER 1000 FEET NEAR KLAX THIS MORNING.
WITH ONLY WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENTS...DO NOT THINK CLOUDS WILL PUSH
INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VLY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. ALTHOUGH
HEIGHTS FALL A BIT TODAY...TEMPS AT 950 MB ACTUALLY EDGE
UPWARD...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER. THEREFORE...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE RATHER SIMILAR TO THOSE ON FRI IN MOST AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES...WHERE BETTER
NORTHERLY GRADIENTS SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING...
ESPECIALLY TO INLAND AREAS.

STEEPENING N-S GRADIENTS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SBA COUNTY
AND THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS SHOULD CAUSE GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
TO REACH LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT S COAST OF
SBA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. THE NLY WINDS COULD
BRING TEMPS BRIEFLY INTO THE 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE S COAST OF
SBA COUNTIES NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...HIGH TEMPS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE WIND ADVISORY AREAS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL FORCE THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. THE WRF SHOWS A WEAK EDDY CRCLN
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS
OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND WILL PROBABLY SPREAD INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VLY LATE TONIGHT. THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY WILL REMAIN
CLEAR. N OF PT CONCEPTION...NLY GRADIENTS MAY BRING SOME REDUCTION
TO THE LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SLO COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE DOWN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS IN SUNDAY.

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AND
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
DEEPEN A BIT MORE...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND WILL
PROBABLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A BIT MORE
ON MONDAY IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST
TUE THROUGH FRI. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH INTO MANY
VLY AREAS AS WELL. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING ON TUE AND WED WILL
BRING MAX TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS...THEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THU. THE EC SUGGESTS SOME
WARMING ON FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AS HEIGHTS RISE A
BIT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1245Z...

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY BY MID MORNING...AND BY LATE
MORNING ON THE COAST.

S OF PT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS LA COUNTY COAST BY 14Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CIGS ACROSS
VENTURA COUNTY COAST TO BECOME IFR AFTER 15Z. 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
SCOUR OUT AS LATE AS 19Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT KSBA WILL REMAIN
VFR TODAY. BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT EDDY WILL HELP TO BRING IN LOW
CLOUDS BEFORE 08Z TO LA COUNTY COAST AND THEN SPREAD NORTH INTO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST BY 09Z. DUE TO SUNDOWNER WINDS FOR KSBA...GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR OR MVFR HZ AFTER 10Z SUNDAY
MORNING. GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT...WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSBA.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF...WITH IFR CONDS BECOMING
MVFR BY 15Z BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL RE-DEVELOP AFTER 08Z TONIGHT DUE TO
STRONGER EDDY.


KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
OR VSBYS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...30/335 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR PZZ670
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT FOR ZONES PZZ-676 LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES VALID
FROM 3 PM TO 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS..
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CALM DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY W TO NW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. 70 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 301119
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
341 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BABARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
GRADUAL COOLING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WAS
SOMEWHAT MORE SHALLOW NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO...WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOME DENSE FOG TO FORM. DENSE FOG WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADVISORIES. S OF PT CONCEPTION...
STRATUS WAS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE OF THE COAST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO PUSH INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK...BUT OFFSHORE N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS
FROM REACHING THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE
MARINE INVERSION WAS JUST UNDER 1000 FEET NEAR KLAX THIS MORNING.
WITH ONLY WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENTS...DO NOT THINK CLOUDS WILL PUSH
INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VLY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. ALTHOUGH
HEIGHTS FALL A BIT TODAY...TEMPS AT 950 MB ACTUALLY EDGE
UPWARD...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER. THEREFORE...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE RATHER SIMILAR TO THOSE ON FRI IN MOST AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES...WHERE BETTER
NORTHERLY GRADIENTS SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING...
ESPECIALLY TO INLAND AREAS.

STEEPENING N-S GRADIENTS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SBA COUNTY
AND THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS SHOULD CAUSE GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
TO REACH LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT S COAST OF
SBA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. THE NLY WINDS COULD
BRING TEMPS BRIEFLY INTO THE 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE S COAST OF
SBA COUNTIES NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...HIGH TEMPS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE WIND ADVISORY AREAS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL FORCE THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. THE WRF SHOWS A WEAK EDDY CRCLN
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS
OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND WILL PROBABLY SPREAD INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VLY LATE TONIGHT. THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY WILL REMAIN
CLEAR. N OF PT CONCEPTION...NLY GRADIENTS MAY BRING SOME REDUCTION
TO THE LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SLO COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE DOWN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS IN SUNDAY.

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AND
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
DEEPEN A BIT MORE...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND WILL
PROBABLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A BIT MORE
ON MONDAY IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST
TUE THROUGH FRI. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH INTO MANY
VLY AREAS AS WELL. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING ON TUE AND WED WILL
BRING MAX TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS...THEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THU. THE EC SUGGESTS SOME
WARMING ON FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AS HEIGHTS RISE A
BIT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...30/335 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR PZZ670
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT FOR ZONES PZZ-676 LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES VALID
FROM 3 PM TO 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS..
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CALM DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY W TO NW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. 70 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...
AVIATION/MARINE...
SYNOPSIS...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 301119
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
341 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BABARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
GRADUAL COOLING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WAS
SOMEWHAT MORE SHALLOW NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO...WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOME DENSE FOG TO FORM. DENSE FOG WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADVISORIES. S OF PT CONCEPTION...
STRATUS WAS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE OF THE COAST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO PUSH INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK...BUT OFFSHORE N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS
FROM REACHING THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE
MARINE INVERSION WAS JUST UNDER 1000 FEET NEAR KLAX THIS MORNING.
WITH ONLY WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENTS...DO NOT THINK CLOUDS WILL PUSH
INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VLY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. ALTHOUGH
HEIGHTS FALL A BIT TODAY...TEMPS AT 950 MB ACTUALLY EDGE
UPWARD...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER. THEREFORE...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE RATHER SIMILAR TO THOSE ON FRI IN MOST AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES...WHERE BETTER
NORTHERLY GRADIENTS SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING...
ESPECIALLY TO INLAND AREAS.

STEEPENING N-S GRADIENTS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SBA COUNTY
AND THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS SHOULD CAUSE GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
TO REACH LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT S COAST OF
SBA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. THE NLY WINDS COULD
BRING TEMPS BRIEFLY INTO THE 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE S COAST OF
SBA COUNTIES NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...HIGH TEMPS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE WIND ADVISORY AREAS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL FORCE THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. THE WRF SHOWS A WEAK EDDY CRCLN
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS
OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND WILL PROBABLY SPREAD INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VLY LATE TONIGHT. THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY WILL REMAIN
CLEAR. N OF PT CONCEPTION...NLY GRADIENTS MAY BRING SOME REDUCTION
TO THE LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SLO COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE DOWN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS IN SUNDAY.

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AND
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
DEEPEN A BIT MORE...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND WILL
PROBABLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A BIT MORE
ON MONDAY IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST
TUE THROUGH FRI. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH INTO MANY
VLY AREAS AS WELL. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING ON TUE AND WED WILL
BRING MAX TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS...THEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THU. THE EC SUGGESTS SOME
WARMING ON FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AS HEIGHTS RISE A
BIT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...30/335 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR PZZ670
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT FOR ZONES PZZ-676 LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES VALID
FROM 3 PM TO 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS..
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CALM DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY W TO NW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. 70 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...
AVIATION/MARINE...
SYNOPSIS...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






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