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000
FXUS66 KLOX 280519 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION


.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN AND OFFSHORE BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...BEGINNING A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
TODAY WAS A VERY WARM THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MANY
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE THEIR WARMEST OR SECOND WARMEST THANKSGIVING
DAY ON RECORD...KEEPING IN MIND THAT THE DATE OF THANKSGIVING VARIES
FROM YEAR TO YEAR. A HANDFUL OF DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NOVEMBER 27TH WERE ALSO SET TODAY.

GRADIENTS WERE STILL -4 MB OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG THIS
EVENING...STRONGER THAN INITIALIZED BY THE WRF. WHILE THERE IS ZERO
SUPPORT FOR WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. IT REMAINS VERY WARM JUST ABOVE THE SFC...WITH 950 MB
TEMPS STILL NEAR 27C OR 80F. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND WHERE IT REMAINS BREEZY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRATUS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME STRATUS LURKING OFF
THE CENTRAL COAST...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THERE.

GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO TURN ONSHORE FRI AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD
STILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN IN L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES.

...FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...

A LITTLE EDDY AND A GENERAL ONSHORE PUSH SHOULD BRING BACK THE
MARINE LAYER ON SATURDAY MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE
SEEING SOME CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT WILL DRIVE
THE NARRATIVE FOR NEXT WEEK. THE ONSHORE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HAVE US BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY IS SOMETHING OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE WAVES ENTERS THE AREA.  EVERYWHERE IN THE AREA WILL BE
CLOUDIER AND THE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP.  MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NORTHWEST SLO COUNTY SHOULD GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN
BY MONDAY MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH.  THE REST OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SO HAVE SOME
POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT REALLY NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH
ANYWHERE IF EVEN THAT MUCH.

.LONG TERM (MON-THUR)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL AGREEMENT?  ITS JUST NOT THERE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  AS DISCUSSED IN EARLIER AFDS...THE
PROBLEM IS THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER
THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN TAKES A SSE TRACK TO A POINT
ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST OF PT CONCEPTION. AFTER IT GETS THERE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON HOW FAR OR FAST THIS LOW WILL
TRACK TO THE EAST NOR ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL ENTRAIN ON ITS
EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE GFS REMAINS FAST AND WET WITH GOOD RAINFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER AND BRINGS IN A STORM
WITH LESS RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THAT LINGERS TO FRIDAY.

KEEPING A GENERALIZED CLOUDY FORECAST WITH A CHANCE RAIN GOING EACH
DAY IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT.  IN EITHER
SOLUTION WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN NEXT WEEK AND ANY IS
WELCOME...BUT IT WILL TAKE MANY MANY RAIN EVENTS TO ULTIMATELY GIVE
CALIFORNIA THE DROUGHT RELIEF IT NEEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0520Z...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRI EVENING.

AT LAX AT 0420Z THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION. THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 1400 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 27 DEGREES C.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH CAVU CONDS THROUGH
FRI EVENING.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH CAVU CONDS THROUGH
THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SOUTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND APPROACHES THE
COAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE
LOW CENTER WITHIN A LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270
DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JLD/DB
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 280519 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION


.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN AND OFFSHORE BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...BEGINNING A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
TODAY WAS A VERY WARM THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MANY
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE THEIR WARMEST OR SECOND WARMEST THANKSGIVING
DAY ON RECORD...KEEPING IN MIND THAT THE DATE OF THANKSGIVING VARIES
FROM YEAR TO YEAR. A HANDFUL OF DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NOVEMBER 27TH WERE ALSO SET TODAY.

GRADIENTS WERE STILL -4 MB OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG THIS
EVENING...STRONGER THAN INITIALIZED BY THE WRF. WHILE THERE IS ZERO
SUPPORT FOR WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. IT REMAINS VERY WARM JUST ABOVE THE SFC...WITH 950 MB
TEMPS STILL NEAR 27C OR 80F. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND WHERE IT REMAINS BREEZY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRATUS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME STRATUS LURKING OFF
THE CENTRAL COAST...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THERE.

GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO TURN ONSHORE FRI AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD
STILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN IN L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES.

...FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...

A LITTLE EDDY AND A GENERAL ONSHORE PUSH SHOULD BRING BACK THE
MARINE LAYER ON SATURDAY MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE
SEEING SOME CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT WILL DRIVE
THE NARRATIVE FOR NEXT WEEK. THE ONSHORE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HAVE US BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY IS SOMETHING OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE WAVES ENTERS THE AREA.  EVERYWHERE IN THE AREA WILL BE
CLOUDIER AND THE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP.  MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NORTHWEST SLO COUNTY SHOULD GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN
BY MONDAY MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH.  THE REST OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SO HAVE SOME
POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT REALLY NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH
ANYWHERE IF EVEN THAT MUCH.

.LONG TERM (MON-THUR)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL AGREEMENT?  ITS JUST NOT THERE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  AS DISCUSSED IN EARLIER AFDS...THE
PROBLEM IS THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER
THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN TAKES A SSE TRACK TO A POINT
ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST OF PT CONCEPTION. AFTER IT GETS THERE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON HOW FAR OR FAST THIS LOW WILL
TRACK TO THE EAST NOR ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL ENTRAIN ON ITS
EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE GFS REMAINS FAST AND WET WITH GOOD RAINFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER AND BRINGS IN A STORM
WITH LESS RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THAT LINGERS TO FRIDAY.

KEEPING A GENERALIZED CLOUDY FORECAST WITH A CHANCE RAIN GOING EACH
DAY IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT.  IN EITHER
SOLUTION WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN NEXT WEEK AND ANY IS
WELCOME...BUT IT WILL TAKE MANY MANY RAIN EVENTS TO ULTIMATELY GIVE
CALIFORNIA THE DROUGHT RELIEF IT NEEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0520Z...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRI EVENING.

AT LAX AT 0420Z THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION. THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 1400 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 27 DEGREES C.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH CAVU CONDS THROUGH
FRI EVENING.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH CAVU CONDS THROUGH
THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SOUTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND APPROACHES THE
COAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE
LOW CENTER WITHIN A LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270
DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JLD/DB
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 280420 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN AND OFFSHORE BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...BEGINNING A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
TODAY WAS A VERY WARM THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MANY
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE THEIR WARMEST OR SECOND WARMEST THANKSGIVING
DAY ON RECORD...KEEPING IN MIND THAT THE DATE OF THANKSGIVING VARIES
FROM YEAR TO YEAR. A HANDFUL OF DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NOVEMBER 27TH WERE ALSO SET TODAY.

GRADIENTS WERE STILL -4 MB OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG THIS
EVENING...STRONGER THAN INITIALIZED BY THE WRF. WHILE THERE IS ZERO
SUPPORT FOR WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. IT REMAINS VERY WARM JUST ABOVE THE SFC...WITH 950 MB
TEMPS STILL NEAR 27C OR 80F. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND WHERE IT REMAINS BREEZY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRATUS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME STRATUS LURKING OFF
THE CENTRAL COAST...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THERE.

GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO TURN ONSHORE FRI AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD
STILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN IN L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES.

...FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...

A LITTLE EDDY AND A GENERAL ONSHORE PUSH SHOULD BRING BACK THE
MARINE LAYER ON SATURDAY MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE
SEEING SOME CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT WILL DRIVE
THE NARRATIVE FOR NEXT WEEK. THE ONSHORE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HAVE US BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY IS SOMETHING OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE WAVES ENTERS THE AREA.  EVERYWHERE IN THE AREA WILL BE
CLOUDIER AND THE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP.  MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NORTHWEST SLO COUNTY SHOULD GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN
BY MONDAY MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH.  THE REST OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SO HAVE SOME
POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT REALLY NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH
ANYWHERE IF EVEN THAT MUCH.

.LONG TERM (MON-THUR)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL AGREEMENT?  ITS JUST NOT THERE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  AS DISCUSSED IN EARLIER AFDS...THE
PROBLEM IS THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER
THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN TAKES A SSE TRACK TO A POINT
ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST OF PT CONCEPTION. AFTER IT GETS THERE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON HOW FAR OR FAST THIS LOW WILL
TRACK TO THE EAST NOR ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL ENTRAIN ON ITS
EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE GFS REMAINS FAST AND WET WITH GOOD RAINFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER AND BRINGS IN A STORM
WITH LESS RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THAT LINGERS TO FRIDAY.

KEEPING A GENERALIZED CLOUDY FORECAST WITH A CHANCE RAIN GOING EACH
DAY IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT.  IN EITHER
SOLUTION WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN NEXT WEEK AND ANY IS
WELCOME...BUT IT WILL TAKE MANY MANY RAIN EVENTS TO ULTIMATELY GIVE
CALIFORNIA THE DROUGHT RELIEF IT NEEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...27/2315Z...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
FRI.

AT LAX AT 2230Z THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION...WITH AN
INVERSION TOP IS OF 1400 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 27 DEGREES C.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH CAVU CONDS THROUGH
THE PD.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH CAVU CONDS THROUGH
THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SOUTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND APPROACHES THE
COAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE
LOW CENTER WITHIN A LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270
DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JLD/DB
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 280420 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN AND OFFSHORE BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...BEGINNING A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
TODAY WAS A VERY WARM THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MANY
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE THEIR WARMEST OR SECOND WARMEST THANKSGIVING
DAY ON RECORD...KEEPING IN MIND THAT THE DATE OF THANKSGIVING VARIES
FROM YEAR TO YEAR. A HANDFUL OF DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NOVEMBER 27TH WERE ALSO SET TODAY.

GRADIENTS WERE STILL -4 MB OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG THIS
EVENING...STRONGER THAN INITIALIZED BY THE WRF. WHILE THERE IS ZERO
SUPPORT FOR WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. IT REMAINS VERY WARM JUST ABOVE THE SFC...WITH 950 MB
TEMPS STILL NEAR 27C OR 80F. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND WHERE IT REMAINS BREEZY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRATUS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME STRATUS LURKING OFF
THE CENTRAL COAST...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THERE.

GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO TURN ONSHORE FRI AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD
STILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN IN L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES.

...FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...

A LITTLE EDDY AND A GENERAL ONSHORE PUSH SHOULD BRING BACK THE
MARINE LAYER ON SATURDAY MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE
SEEING SOME CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT WILL DRIVE
THE NARRATIVE FOR NEXT WEEK. THE ONSHORE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HAVE US BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY IS SOMETHING OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE WAVES ENTERS THE AREA.  EVERYWHERE IN THE AREA WILL BE
CLOUDIER AND THE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP.  MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NORTHWEST SLO COUNTY SHOULD GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN
BY MONDAY MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH.  THE REST OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SO HAVE SOME
POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT REALLY NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH
ANYWHERE IF EVEN THAT MUCH.

.LONG TERM (MON-THUR)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL AGREEMENT?  ITS JUST NOT THERE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  AS DISCUSSED IN EARLIER AFDS...THE
PROBLEM IS THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER
THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN TAKES A SSE TRACK TO A POINT
ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST OF PT CONCEPTION. AFTER IT GETS THERE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON HOW FAR OR FAST THIS LOW WILL
TRACK TO THE EAST NOR ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL ENTRAIN ON ITS
EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE GFS REMAINS FAST AND WET WITH GOOD RAINFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER AND BRINGS IN A STORM
WITH LESS RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THAT LINGERS TO FRIDAY.

KEEPING A GENERALIZED CLOUDY FORECAST WITH A CHANCE RAIN GOING EACH
DAY IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT.  IN EITHER
SOLUTION WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN NEXT WEEK AND ANY IS
WELCOME...BUT IT WILL TAKE MANY MANY RAIN EVENTS TO ULTIMATELY GIVE
CALIFORNIA THE DROUGHT RELIEF IT NEEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...27/2315Z...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
FRI.

AT LAX AT 2230Z THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION...WITH AN
INVERSION TOP IS OF 1400 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 27 DEGREES C.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH CAVU CONDS THROUGH
THE PD.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH CAVU CONDS THROUGH
THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SOUTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND APPROACHES THE
COAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE
LOW CENTER WITHIN A LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270
DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JLD/DB
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 272311 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN AND OFFSHORE BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...BEGINNING A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
IF YOU LIKE IT SUNNY AND WARM THEN THIS IS A HAPPY THANKSGIVING FOR
YOU.  TEMPS STARTED OFF EVEN WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION AND SEVERAL RECORD HIGH TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GOBBLED UP.
WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT HAVE TURNED ONSHORE AT THE COAST SO NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE WARMING TODAY ALONG THE COASTLINE.  VALLEY AND
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD STILL GO UP A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE THE
DAY IS DONE.  A LITTLE CLOUDIER ON FRIDAY...MOSTLY OVER THE WATER
AND NEAR THE SHORE BUT PREDOMINANTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE.  A LITTLE EDDY AND A GENERAL ONSHORE PUSH SHOULD BRING
BACK THE MARINE LAYER ON SATURDAY MORNING.  BY THE AFTERNOON WE
SHOULD BE SEEING SOME CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
WILL DRIVE THE NARRATIVE FOR NEXT WEEK.  THE ONSHORE WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HAVE US BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY IS SOMETHING OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE WAVES ENTERS THE AREA.  EVERYWHERE IN THE AREA WILL BE
CLOUDIER AND THE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP.  MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NORTHWEST SLO COUNTY SHOULD GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN
BY MONDAY MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH.  THE REST OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SO HAVE SOME
POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT REALLY NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH
ANYWHERE IF EVEN THAT MUCH.

.LONG TERM (MON-THUR)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL AGREEMENT?  ITS JUST NOT THERE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  AS DISCUSSED IN EARLIER AFDS...THE
PROBLEM IS THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER
THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN TAKES A SSE TRACK TO A POINT
ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST OF PT CONCEPTION. AFTER IT GETS THERE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON HOW FAR OR FAST THIS LOW WILL
TRACK TO THE EAST NOR ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL ENTRAIN ON ITS
EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE GFS REMAINS FAST AND WET WITH GOOD RAINFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER AND BRINGS IN A STORM
WITH LESS RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THAT LINGERS TO FRIDAY.

KEEPING A GENERALIZED CLOUDY FORECAST WITH A CHANCE RAIN GOING EACH
DAY IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT.  IN EITHER
SOLUTION WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN NEXT WEEK AND ANY IS
WELCOME...BUT IT WILL TAKE MANY MANY RAIN EVENTS TO ULTIMATELY GIVE
CALIFORNIA THE DROUGHT RELIEF IT NEEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...27/2315Z...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
FRI.

AT LAX AT 2230Z THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION...WITH AN
INVERSION TOP IS OF 1400 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 27 DEGREES C.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH CAVU CONDS THROUGH
THE PD.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH CAVU CONDS THROUGH
THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...27/200 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SOUTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND APPROACHES THE
COAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE
LOW CENTER WITHIN A LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270
DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JLD
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 272311 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN AND OFFSHORE BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...BEGINNING A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
IF YOU LIKE IT SUNNY AND WARM THEN THIS IS A HAPPY THANKSGIVING FOR
YOU.  TEMPS STARTED OFF EVEN WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION AND SEVERAL RECORD HIGH TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GOBBLED UP.
WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT HAVE TURNED ONSHORE AT THE COAST SO NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE WARMING TODAY ALONG THE COASTLINE.  VALLEY AND
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD STILL GO UP A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE THE
DAY IS DONE.  A LITTLE CLOUDIER ON FRIDAY...MOSTLY OVER THE WATER
AND NEAR THE SHORE BUT PREDOMINANTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE.  A LITTLE EDDY AND A GENERAL ONSHORE PUSH SHOULD BRING
BACK THE MARINE LAYER ON SATURDAY MORNING.  BY THE AFTERNOON WE
SHOULD BE SEEING SOME CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
WILL DRIVE THE NARRATIVE FOR NEXT WEEK.  THE ONSHORE WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HAVE US BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY IS SOMETHING OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE WAVES ENTERS THE AREA.  EVERYWHERE IN THE AREA WILL BE
CLOUDIER AND THE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP.  MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NORTHWEST SLO COUNTY SHOULD GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN
BY MONDAY MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH.  THE REST OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SO HAVE SOME
POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT REALLY NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH
ANYWHERE IF EVEN THAT MUCH.

.LONG TERM (MON-THUR)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL AGREEMENT?  ITS JUST NOT THERE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  AS DISCUSSED IN EARLIER AFDS...THE
PROBLEM IS THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER
THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN TAKES A SSE TRACK TO A POINT
ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST OF PT CONCEPTION. AFTER IT GETS THERE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON HOW FAR OR FAST THIS LOW WILL
TRACK TO THE EAST NOR ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL ENTRAIN ON ITS
EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE GFS REMAINS FAST AND WET WITH GOOD RAINFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER AND BRINGS IN A STORM
WITH LESS RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THAT LINGERS TO FRIDAY.

KEEPING A GENERALIZED CLOUDY FORECAST WITH A CHANCE RAIN GOING EACH
DAY IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT.  IN EITHER
SOLUTION WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN NEXT WEEK AND ANY IS
WELCOME...BUT IT WILL TAKE MANY MANY RAIN EVENTS TO ULTIMATELY GIVE
CALIFORNIA THE DROUGHT RELIEF IT NEEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...27/2315Z...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
FRI.

AT LAX AT 2230Z THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION...WITH AN
INVERSION TOP IS OF 1400 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 27 DEGREES C.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH CAVU CONDS THROUGH
THE PD.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH CAVU CONDS THROUGH
THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...27/200 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SOUTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND APPROACHES THE
COAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE
LOW CENTER WITHIN A LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270
DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JLD
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 272143
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN AND OFFSHORE BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...BEGINNING A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
IF YOU LIKE IT SUNNY AND WARM THEN THIS IS A HAPPY THANKSGIVING FOR
YOU.  TEMPS STARTED OFF EVEN WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION AND SEVERAL RECORD HIGH TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GOBBLED UP.
WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT HAVE TURNED ONSHORE AT THE COAST SO NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE WARMING TODAY ALONG THE COASTLINE.  VALLEY AND
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD STILL GO UP A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE THE
DAY IS DONE.  A LITTLE CLOUDIER ON FRIDAY...MOSTLY OVER THE WATER
AND NEAR THE SHORE BUT PREDOMINANTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE.  A LITTLE EDDY AND A GENERAL ONSHORE PUSH SHOULD BRING
BACK THE MARINE LAYER ON SATURDAY MORNING.  BY THE AFTERNOON WE
SHOULD BE SEEING SOME CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
WILL DRIVE THE NARRATIVE FOR NEXT WEEK.  THE ONSHORE WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HAVE US BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY IS SOMETHING OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE WAVES ENTERS THE AREA.  EVERYWHERE IN THE AREA WILL BE
CLOUDIER AND THE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP.  MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NORTHWEST SLO COUNTY SHOULD GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN
BY MONDAY MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH.  THE REST OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SO HAVE SOME
POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT REALLY NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH
ANYWHERE IF EVEN THAT MUCH.

.LONG TERM (MON-THUR)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL AGREEMENT?  ITS JUST NOT THERE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  AS DISCUSSED IN EARLIER AFDS...THE
PROBLEM IS THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER
THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN TAKES A SSE TRACK TO A POINT
ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST OF PT CONCEPTION. AFTER IT GETS THERE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON HOW FAR OR FAST THIS LOW WILL
TRACK TO THE EAST NOR ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL ENTRAIN ON ITS
EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE GFS REMAINS FAST AND WET WITH GOOD RAINFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER AND BRINGS IN A STORM
WITH LESS RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THAT LINGERS TO FRIDAY.

KEEPING A GENERALIZED CLOUDY FORECAST WITH A CHANCE RAIN GOING EACH
DAY IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT.  IN EITHER
SOLUTION WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN NEXT WEEK AND ANY IS
WELCOME...BUT IT WILL TAKE MANY MANY RAIN EVENTS TO ULTIMATELY GIVE
CALIFORNIA THE DROUGHT RELIEF IT NEEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST
AFTER 28/07Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST
AFTER 28/16Z. WEAK MIXED ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH 28/01Z AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT AFTER 28/20Z...OTHERWISE
RELATIVELY FLAT GRADIENT BETWEEN 28/01-28/20Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 1723 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 25 DEGREES C.

KLAX...VERY LIKELY CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...27/200 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SOUTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND APPROACHES THE
COAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE
LOW CENTER WITHIN A LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270
DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JLD
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 272143
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN AND OFFSHORE BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...BEGINNING A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
IF YOU LIKE IT SUNNY AND WARM THEN THIS IS A HAPPY THANKSGIVING FOR
YOU.  TEMPS STARTED OFF EVEN WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION AND SEVERAL RECORD HIGH TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GOBBLED UP.
WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT HAVE TURNED ONSHORE AT THE COAST SO NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE WARMING TODAY ALONG THE COASTLINE.  VALLEY AND
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD STILL GO UP A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE THE
DAY IS DONE.  A LITTLE CLOUDIER ON FRIDAY...MOSTLY OVER THE WATER
AND NEAR THE SHORE BUT PREDOMINANTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE.  A LITTLE EDDY AND A GENERAL ONSHORE PUSH SHOULD BRING
BACK THE MARINE LAYER ON SATURDAY MORNING.  BY THE AFTERNOON WE
SHOULD BE SEEING SOME CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
WILL DRIVE THE NARRATIVE FOR NEXT WEEK.  THE ONSHORE WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HAVE US BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY IS SOMETHING OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE WAVES ENTERS THE AREA.  EVERYWHERE IN THE AREA WILL BE
CLOUDIER AND THE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP.  MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NORTHWEST SLO COUNTY SHOULD GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN
BY MONDAY MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH.  THE REST OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SO HAVE SOME
POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT REALLY NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH
ANYWHERE IF EVEN THAT MUCH.

.LONG TERM (MON-THUR)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL AGREEMENT?  ITS JUST NOT THERE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  AS DISCUSSED IN EARLIER AFDS...THE
PROBLEM IS THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER
THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN TAKES A SSE TRACK TO A POINT
ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST OF PT CONCEPTION. AFTER IT GETS THERE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON HOW FAR OR FAST THIS LOW WILL
TRACK TO THE EAST NOR ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL ENTRAIN ON ITS
EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE GFS REMAINS FAST AND WET WITH GOOD RAINFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER AND BRINGS IN A STORM
WITH LESS RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THAT LINGERS TO FRIDAY.

KEEPING A GENERALIZED CLOUDY FORECAST WITH A CHANCE RAIN GOING EACH
DAY IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT.  IN EITHER
SOLUTION WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN NEXT WEEK AND ANY IS
WELCOME...BUT IT WILL TAKE MANY MANY RAIN EVENTS TO ULTIMATELY GIVE
CALIFORNIA THE DROUGHT RELIEF IT NEEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST
AFTER 28/07Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST
AFTER 28/16Z. WEAK MIXED ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH 28/01Z AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT AFTER 28/20Z...OTHERWISE
RELATIVELY FLAT GRADIENT BETWEEN 28/01-28/20Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 1723 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 25 DEGREES C.

KLAX...VERY LIKELY CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...27/200 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SOUTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND APPROACHES THE
COAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE
LOW CENTER WITHIN A LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270
DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JLD
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271743
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
942 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN AND OFFSHORE BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...BEGINNING A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE (TODAY-SUN)...
VERY NICE THREE DAYS ON TAP AS LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD SLOWLY FLATTENS.
OFFSHORE WINDS SLOWLY RELAX AND FINALLY TURN ONSHORE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WHICH WAS ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CSTS AND VLYS AND SET TWO RECORDS (LONG
BEACH AIRPORT AND SANDBERG). FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND INLAND AREAS
WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO HGT FALLS. ONSHORE
FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS TO MUCH OF THE COASTS AND
FURTHER THE COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS COOLING TO SEASONAL NORMS.

STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP SUNDAY BRINGING CLOUDS.  THESE CLOUDS
AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE A PRETTY EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS DECK. THE TAIL END OF A FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE CENTRAL COAST. EXCEPT FOR IN NORTHWEST SLO COUNTY...WHATEVER
RAIN DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT. THE EC NOW FORECASTS SOME WARM FRONTAL
LIKE RAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION BUT EVERY OTHER MDL KEEPS IT DRY
SO STILL GOING WITH THAT.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
THE UTTER LACK OF MDL CONSISTENCY OR AGREEMENT CONTINUES ALTHOUGH
NOW MOST MDLS AGREE THAT MONDAY WILL BE DRY. STILL KEPT SOME POPS IN
BECAUSE TODAYS RUNS COULD EASILY BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FCST.

OTHER THAN THAT THERE IS NO HOPE. THE PROBLEM IS THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY
EVENING AND THEN TAKES A SSE TRACK TO A POINT ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST
OF PT CONCEPTION BY SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT
ON HOW EXACTLY THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO THE EAST AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IT WILL ENTRAIN ON ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE GFS IS FAST AND WET
WITH GOOD RAINFALL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY EVENING. THE EC
IS MUCH SLOWER AND BRINGS IN A STORM WITH LESS RAINFALL THURSDAY AND
SOME OF FRIDAY.

JUST KEPT A BROAD BRUSH CLOUDY CHC POP FORECAST GOING IN THE
EXTENDED. AS THE MAGIC 8 BALL WOULD SAY: "FUTURE UNCERTAIN TRY AGAIN
LATER"

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST
AFTER 28/07Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST
AFTER 28/16Z. WEAK MIXED ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH 28/01Z AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT AFTER 28/20Z...OTHERWISE
RELATIVELY FLAT GRADIENT BETWEEN 28/01-28/20Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 1723 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 25 DEGREES C.

KLAX...VERY LIKELY CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS



&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SOUTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND APPROACHES THE
COAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE
LOW CENTER WITHIN A LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270
DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



















000
FXUS66 KLOX 271743
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
942 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN AND OFFSHORE BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...BEGINNING A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE (TODAY-SUN)...
VERY NICE THREE DAYS ON TAP AS LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD SLOWLY FLATTENS.
OFFSHORE WINDS SLOWLY RELAX AND FINALLY TURN ONSHORE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WHICH WAS ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CSTS AND VLYS AND SET TWO RECORDS (LONG
BEACH AIRPORT AND SANDBERG). FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND INLAND AREAS
WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO HGT FALLS. ONSHORE
FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS TO MUCH OF THE COASTS AND
FURTHER THE COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS COOLING TO SEASONAL NORMS.

STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP SUNDAY BRINGING CLOUDS.  THESE CLOUDS
AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE A PRETTY EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS DECK. THE TAIL END OF A FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE CENTRAL COAST. EXCEPT FOR IN NORTHWEST SLO COUNTY...WHATEVER
RAIN DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT. THE EC NOW FORECASTS SOME WARM FRONTAL
LIKE RAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION BUT EVERY OTHER MDL KEEPS IT DRY
SO STILL GOING WITH THAT.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
THE UTTER LACK OF MDL CONSISTENCY OR AGREEMENT CONTINUES ALTHOUGH
NOW MOST MDLS AGREE THAT MONDAY WILL BE DRY. STILL KEPT SOME POPS IN
BECAUSE TODAYS RUNS COULD EASILY BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FCST.

OTHER THAN THAT THERE IS NO HOPE. THE PROBLEM IS THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY
EVENING AND THEN TAKES A SSE TRACK TO A POINT ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST
OF PT CONCEPTION BY SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT
ON HOW EXACTLY THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO THE EAST AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IT WILL ENTRAIN ON ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE GFS IS FAST AND WET
WITH GOOD RAINFALL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY EVENING. THE EC
IS MUCH SLOWER AND BRINGS IN A STORM WITH LESS RAINFALL THURSDAY AND
SOME OF FRIDAY.

JUST KEPT A BROAD BRUSH CLOUDY CHC POP FORECAST GOING IN THE
EXTENDED. AS THE MAGIC 8 BALL WOULD SAY: "FUTURE UNCERTAIN TRY AGAIN
LATER"

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST
AFTER 28/07Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST
AFTER 28/16Z. WEAK MIXED ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH 28/01Z AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT AFTER 28/20Z...OTHERWISE
RELATIVELY FLAT GRADIENT BETWEEN 28/01-28/20Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 1723 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 25 DEGREES C.

KLAX...VERY LIKELY CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS



&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SOUTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND APPROACHES THE
COAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE
LOW CENTER WITHIN A LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270
DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




















000
FXUS66 KLOX 271724
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
923 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN AND OFFSHORE BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...BEGINNING A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE (TODAY-SUN)...
VERY NICE THREE DAYS ON TAP AS LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD SLOWLY FLATTENS.
OFFSHORE WINDS SLOWLY RELAX AND FINALLY TURN ONSHORE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WHICH WAS ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CSTS AND VLYS AND SET TWO RECORDS (LONG
BEACH AIRPORT AND SANDBERG). FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND INLAND AREAS
WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO HGT FALLS. ONSHORE
FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS TO MUCH OF THE COASTS AND
FURTHER THE COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS COOLING TO SEASONAL NORMS.

STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP SUNDAY BRINGING CLOUDS.  THESE CLOUDS
AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE A PRETTY EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS DECK. THE TAIL END OF A FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE CENTRAL COAST. EXCEPT FOR IN NORTHWEST SLO COUNTY...WHATEVER
RAIN DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT. THE EC NOW FORECASTS SOME WARM FRONTAL
LIKE RAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION BUT EVERY OTHER MDL KEEPS IT DRY
SO STILL GOING WITH THAT.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
THE UTTER LACK OF MDL CONSISTENCY OR AGREEMENT CONTINUES ALTHOUGH
NOW MOST MDLS AGREE THAT MONDAY WILL BE DRY. STILL KEPT SOME POPS IN
BECAUSE TODAYS RUNS COULD EASILY BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FCST.

OTHER THAN THAT THERE IS NO HOPE. THE PROBLEM IS THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY
EVENING AND THEN TAKES A SSE TRACK TO A POINT ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST
OF PT CONCEPTION BY SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT
ON HOW EXACTLY THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO THE EAST AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IT WILL ENTRAIN ON ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE GFS IS FAST AND WET
WITH GOOD RAINFALL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY EVENING. THE EC
IS MUCH SLOWER AND BRINGS IN A STORM WITH LESS RAINFALL THURSDAY AND
SOME OF FRIDAY.

JUST KEPT A BROAD BRUSH CLOUDY CHC POP FORECAST GOING IN THE
EXTENDED. AS THE MAGIC 8 BALL WOULD SAY: "FUTURE UNCERTAIN TRY AGAIN
LATER"

&&

.AVIATION...
27/1130Z

AT 0920Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AND A SURFACE BASED INVERSION
AT KLAX AT WITH AN INVERSION TOP OF 800 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 27
DEGREE CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SOUTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND APPROACHES THE
COAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE
LOW CENTER WITHIN A LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270
DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

















000
FXUS66 KLOX 271724
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
923 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN AND OFFSHORE BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...BEGINNING A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE (TODAY-SUN)...
VERY NICE THREE DAYS ON TAP AS LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD SLOWLY FLATTENS.
OFFSHORE WINDS SLOWLY RELAX AND FINALLY TURN ONSHORE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WHICH WAS ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CSTS AND VLYS AND SET TWO RECORDS (LONG
BEACH AIRPORT AND SANDBERG). FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND INLAND AREAS
WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO HGT FALLS. ONSHORE
FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS TO MUCH OF THE COASTS AND
FURTHER THE COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS COOLING TO SEASONAL NORMS.

STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP SUNDAY BRINGING CLOUDS.  THESE CLOUDS
AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE A PRETTY EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS DECK. THE TAIL END OF A FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE CENTRAL COAST. EXCEPT FOR IN NORTHWEST SLO COUNTY...WHATEVER
RAIN DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT. THE EC NOW FORECASTS SOME WARM FRONTAL
LIKE RAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION BUT EVERY OTHER MDL KEEPS IT DRY
SO STILL GOING WITH THAT.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
THE UTTER LACK OF MDL CONSISTENCY OR AGREEMENT CONTINUES ALTHOUGH
NOW MOST MDLS AGREE THAT MONDAY WILL BE DRY. STILL KEPT SOME POPS IN
BECAUSE TODAYS RUNS COULD EASILY BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FCST.

OTHER THAN THAT THERE IS NO HOPE. THE PROBLEM IS THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY
EVENING AND THEN TAKES A SSE TRACK TO A POINT ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST
OF PT CONCEPTION BY SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT
ON HOW EXACTLY THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO THE EAST AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IT WILL ENTRAIN ON ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE GFS IS FAST AND WET
WITH GOOD RAINFALL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY EVENING. THE EC
IS MUCH SLOWER AND BRINGS IN A STORM WITH LESS RAINFALL THURSDAY AND
SOME OF FRIDAY.

JUST KEPT A BROAD BRUSH CLOUDY CHC POP FORECAST GOING IN THE
EXTENDED. AS THE MAGIC 8 BALL WOULD SAY: "FUTURE UNCERTAIN TRY AGAIN
LATER"

&&

.AVIATION...
27/1130Z

AT 0920Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AND A SURFACE BASED INVERSION
AT KLAX AT WITH AN INVERSION TOP OF 800 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 27
DEGREE CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SOUTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND APPROACHES THE
COAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE
LOW CENTER WITHIN A LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270
DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 271717
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN AND OFFSHORE BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...BEGINNING A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE (TODAY-SUN)...
VERY NICE THREE DAYS ON TAP AS LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD SLOWLY FLATTENS.
OFFSHORE WINDS SLOWLY RELAX AND FINALLY TURN ONSHORE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WHICH WAS ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CSTS AND VLYS AND SET TWO RECORDS (LONG
BEACH AIRPORT AND SANDBERG). FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND INLAND AREAS
WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO HGT FALLS. ONSHORE
FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS TO MUCH OF THE COASTS AND
FURTHER THE COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS COOLING TO SEASONAL NORMS.

STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP SUNDAY BRINGING CLOUDS.  THESE CLOUDS
AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE A PRETTY EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS DECK. THE TAIL END OF A FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE CENTRAL COAST. EXCEPT FOR IN NORTHWEST SLO COUNTY...WHATEVER
RAIN DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT. THE EC NOW FORECASTS SOME WARM FRONTAL
LIKE RAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION BUT EVERY OTHER MDL KEEPS IT DRY
SO STILL GOING WITH THAT.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
THE UTTER LACK OF MDL CONSISTENCY OR AGREEMENT CONTINUES ALTHOUGH
NOW MOST MDLS AGREE THAT MONDAY WILL BE DRY. STILL KEPT SOME POPS IN
BECAUSE TODAYS RUNS COULD EASILY BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FCST.

OTHER THAN THAT THERE IS NO HOPE. THE PROBLEM IS THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY
EVENING AND THEN TAKES A SSE TRACK TO A POINT ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST
OF PT CONCEPTION BY SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT
ON HOW EXACTLY THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO THE EAST AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IT WILL ENTRAIN ON ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE GFS IS FAST AND WET
WITH GOOD RAINFALL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY EVENING. THE EC
IS MUCH SLOWER AND BRINGS IN A STORM WITH LESS RAINFALL THURSDAY AND
SOME OF FRIDAY.

JUST KEPT A BROAD BRUSH CLOUDY CHC POP FORECAST GOING IN THE
EXTENDED. AS THE MAGIC 8 BALL WOULD SAY: "FUTURE UNCERTAIN TRY AGAIN
LATER"

&&

.AVIATION...
27/1130Z

AT 0920Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AND A SURFACE BASED INVERSION
AT KLAX AT WITH AN INVERSION TOP OF 800 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 27
DEGREE CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM...
SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO INCREASE SE TO S WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS MON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 271717
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN AND OFFSHORE BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...BEGINNING A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE (TODAY-SUN)...
VERY NICE THREE DAYS ON TAP AS LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD SLOWLY FLATTENS.
OFFSHORE WINDS SLOWLY RELAX AND FINALLY TURN ONSHORE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WHICH WAS ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CSTS AND VLYS AND SET TWO RECORDS (LONG
BEACH AIRPORT AND SANDBERG). FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND INLAND AREAS
WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO HGT FALLS. ONSHORE
FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS TO MUCH OF THE COASTS AND
FURTHER THE COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS COOLING TO SEASONAL NORMS.

STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP SUNDAY BRINGING CLOUDS.  THESE CLOUDS
AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE A PRETTY EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS DECK. THE TAIL END OF A FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE CENTRAL COAST. EXCEPT FOR IN NORTHWEST SLO COUNTY...WHATEVER
RAIN DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT. THE EC NOW FORECASTS SOME WARM FRONTAL
LIKE RAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION BUT EVERY OTHER MDL KEEPS IT DRY
SO STILL GOING WITH THAT.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
THE UTTER LACK OF MDL CONSISTENCY OR AGREEMENT CONTINUES ALTHOUGH
NOW MOST MDLS AGREE THAT MONDAY WILL BE DRY. STILL KEPT SOME POPS IN
BECAUSE TODAYS RUNS COULD EASILY BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FCST.

OTHER THAN THAT THERE IS NO HOPE. THE PROBLEM IS THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY
EVENING AND THEN TAKES A SSE TRACK TO A POINT ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST
OF PT CONCEPTION BY SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT
ON HOW EXACTLY THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO THE EAST AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IT WILL ENTRAIN ON ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE GFS IS FAST AND WET
WITH GOOD RAINFALL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY EVENING. THE EC
IS MUCH SLOWER AND BRINGS IN A STORM WITH LESS RAINFALL THURSDAY AND
SOME OF FRIDAY.

JUST KEPT A BROAD BRUSH CLOUDY CHC POP FORECAST GOING IN THE
EXTENDED. AS THE MAGIC 8 BALL WOULD SAY: "FUTURE UNCERTAIN TRY AGAIN
LATER"

&&

.AVIATION...
27/1130Z

AT 0920Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AND A SURFACE BASED INVERSION
AT KLAX AT WITH AN INVERSION TOP OF 800 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 27
DEGREE CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM...
SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO INCREASE SE TO S WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS MON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 271115
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A HIGH WILL CREATE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
EXITS AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. ON SUNDAY...A LOW WILL ARRIVE WITH
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
VERY NICE THREE DAYS ON TAP AS LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD SLOWLY FLATTENS.
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS SLOWLY RELAX AND FINALLY TURN ONSHORE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. QUITE WARM TODAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY OR
ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CSTS AND VLYS. FRIDAY WILL BE
6 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS AS OFFSHORE FLOW
TURNS ONSHORE WITH INLAND AREAS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE
TO HGT FALLS. ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS TO
MUCH OF THE COASTS AND FURTHER THE COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS COOLING
TO SEASONAL NORMS.

STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP SUNDAY. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN
WITH THESE CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE A PRETTY
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK. THE TAIL END OF A FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE CENTRAL COAST. WHATEVER RAIN DOES FALL WILL
BE LIGHT. THE EC NOW FORECASTS SOME WARM FRONTAL LIKE RAIN SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION BUT EVERY OTHER MDL KEEPS IT DRY SO WENT WITH THAT.

KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY THINKING THAT IT MEANS AN 80
PERCENT CHC OF NO RAIN AS ONLY ONE MDL DRAGS A LIGHT RAINMAKING
IMPULSE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
THE UTTER LACK OF MDL CONSISTENCY OR AGREEMENT CONTINUES ALTHOUGH
NOW MOST MDLS AGREE THAT MONDAY WILL BE DRY. STILL KEPT SOME POPS IN
BECAUSE TODAYS RUNS COULD EASILY BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FCST.

OTHER THAN THAT THERE IS NO HOPE. THE PROBLEM IS THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY
EVENING AND THEN TAKES A SSE TRACK TO A POINT ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST
OF PT CONCEPTION BY SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT
ON HOW EXACTLY THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO THE EAST AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IT WILL ENTRAIN ON ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE GFS IS FAST AND WET
WITH GOOD RAINFALL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY EVENING. THE EC
IS MUCH SLOWER AND BRINGS IN A STORM WITH LESS RAINFALL THURSDAY AND
SOME OF FRIDAY.

JUST KEPT A BROAD BRUSH CLOUDY CHC POP FORECAST GOING IN THE
EXTENDED. AS THE MAGIC 8 BALL WOULD SAY: "FUTURE UNCERTAIN TRY AGAIN
LATER"

&&

.AVIATION...
27/1130Z

AT 0920Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AND A SURFACE BASED INVERSION
AT KLAX AT WITH AN INVERSION TOP OF 800 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 27
DEGREE CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM...
SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO INCREASE SE TO S WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS MON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 271107
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A HIGH WILL CREATE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
EXITS AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. ON SUNDAY...A LOW WILL ARRIVE WITH
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
VERY NICE THREE DAYS ON TAP AS LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD SLOWLY FLATTENS.
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS SLOWLY RELAX AND FINALLY TURN ONSHORE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. QUITE WARM TODAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY OR
ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CSTS AND VLYS. FRIDAY WILL BE
6 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS AS OFFSHORE FLOW
TURNS ONSHORE WITH INLAND AREAS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE
TO HGT FALLS. ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS TO
MUCH OF THE COASTS AND FURTHER THE COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS COOLING
TO SEASONAL NORMS.

STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP SUNDAY. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN
WITH THESE CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE A PRETTY
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK. THE TAIL END OF A FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE CENTRAL COAST. WHATEVER RAIN DOES FALL WILL
BE LIGHT. THE EC NOW FORECASTS SOME WARM FRONTAL LIKE RAIN SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION BUT EVERY OTHER MDL KEEPS IT DRY SO WENT WITH THAT.

KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY THINKING THAT IT MEANS AN 80
PERCENT CHC OF NO RAIN AS ONLY ONE MDL DRAGS A LIGHT RAINMAKING
IMPULSE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
THE UTTER LACK OF MDL CONSISTENCY OR AGREEMENT CONTINUES ALTHOUGH
NOW MOST MDLS AGREE THAT MONDAY WILL BE DRY. STILL KEPT SOME POPS IN
BECAUSE TODAYS RUNS COULD EASILY BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FCST.

OTHER THAN THAT THERE IS NO HOPE. THE PROBLEM IS THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY
EVENING AND THEN TAKES A SSE TRACK TO A POINT ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST
OF PT CONCEPTION BY SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT
ON HOW EXACTLY THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO THE EAST AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IT WILL ENTRAIN ON ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE GFS IS FAST AND WET
WITH GOOD RAINFALL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY EVENING. THE EC
IS MUCH SLOWER AND BRINGS IN A STORM WITH LESS RAINFALL THURSDAY AND
SOME OF FRIDAY.

JUST KEPT A BROAD BRUSH CLOUDY CHC POP FORECAST GOING IN THE
EXTENDED. AS THE MAGIC 8 BALL WOULD SAY: "FUTURE UNCERTAIN TRY AGAIN
LATER"

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1130Z

AT 0920Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AND A SURFACE BASED INVERSION
AT KLAX AT WITH AN INVERSION TOP OF 800 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 27
DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU THU.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS.
OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH AREA
APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A MORE
LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND BUILD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS AREA
POSSIBLE.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 270534 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREATE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH EXITS AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. ON SUNDAY...A
LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR LATE
SUNDAY THEN EXTEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...RATHER WARM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS
TODAY WITH MANY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH A COUPLE OF READINGS
INTO THE LOW 90S. THERE WAS ALSO TWO RECORD HIGHS SET WHICH WERE 87
DEGREES AT LONG BEACH AIRPORT (TIED OLD RECORD OF 87 SET IN 1959)
AND 73 AT SANDBERG (OLD RECORD 70 SET IN 1953).

CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DECENT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST (-4.8 MB
LAX-DAG AT 03Z) WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING LOCALLY GUSTY NE WINDS
BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AND ALSO TO FOOTHILL
AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TEMPS IN THE BREEZY AREAS AND
FOOTHILLS WILL BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. FOR THE
COLDEST WIND SHELTERED COASTAL VALLEYS SUCH AS THE OJAI
VALLEY...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA THRU THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD FRI THRU
SAT...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS MOVING INTO NRN CA BY SAT. THIS
WILL SET UP A BROAD W FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THRU FRI. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND PARTS OF THE COAST S OF POINT CONCEPTION...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THRU SAT...ALTHO SOME HI CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD END BY THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. SOME GUSTY S TO SW WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY SAT
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS
ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS...WITH A FEW LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST VLYS
OF L.A./VTU COUNTY. A FEW MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPS WILL THEN COOL BACK ON FRI BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED SAT WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMENTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2330Z...

AT 0425Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1100 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL AIRFIELDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...26/730 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH
AREA APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A
MORE LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES
RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY
AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 270534 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREATE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH EXITS AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. ON SUNDAY...A
LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR LATE
SUNDAY THEN EXTEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...RATHER WARM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS
TODAY WITH MANY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH A COUPLE OF READINGS
INTO THE LOW 90S. THERE WAS ALSO TWO RECORD HIGHS SET WHICH WERE 87
DEGREES AT LONG BEACH AIRPORT (TIED OLD RECORD OF 87 SET IN 1959)
AND 73 AT SANDBERG (OLD RECORD 70 SET IN 1953).

CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DECENT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST (-4.8 MB
LAX-DAG AT 03Z) WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING LOCALLY GUSTY NE WINDS
BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AND ALSO TO FOOTHILL
AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TEMPS IN THE BREEZY AREAS AND
FOOTHILLS WILL BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. FOR THE
COLDEST WIND SHELTERED COASTAL VALLEYS SUCH AS THE OJAI
VALLEY...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA THRU THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD FRI THRU
SAT...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS MOVING INTO NRN CA BY SAT. THIS
WILL SET UP A BROAD W FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THRU FRI. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND PARTS OF THE COAST S OF POINT CONCEPTION...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THRU SAT...ALTHO SOME HI CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD END BY THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. SOME GUSTY S TO SW WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY SAT
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS
ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS...WITH A FEW LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST VLYS
OF L.A./VTU COUNTY. A FEW MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPS WILL THEN COOL BACK ON FRI BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED SAT WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMENTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2330Z...

AT 0425Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1100 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL AIRFIELDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...26/730 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH
AREA APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A
MORE LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES
RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY
AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 270355
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
755 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREATE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH EXITS AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. ON SUNDAY...A
LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR LATE
SUNDAY THEN EXTEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...RATHER WARM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS
TODAY WITH MANY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH A COUPLE OF READINGS
INTO THE LOW 90S. THERE WAS ALSO TWO RECORD HIGHS SET WHICH WERE 87
DEGREES AT LONG BEACH AIRPORT (TIED OLD RECORD OF 87 SET IN 1959)
AND 73 AT SANDBERG (OLD RECORD 70 SET IN 1953).

CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DECENT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST (-4.8 MB
LAX-DAG AT 03Z) WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING LOCALLY GUSTY NE WINDS
BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AND ALSO TO FOOTHILL
AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TEMPS IN THE BREEZY AREAS AND
FOOTHILLS WILL BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. FOR THE
COLDEST WIND SHELTERED COASTAL VALLEYS SUCH AS THE OJAI
VALLEY...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA THRU THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD FRI THRU
SAT...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS MOVING INTO NRN CA BY SAT. THIS
WILL SET UP A BROAD W FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THRU FRI. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND PARTS OF THE COAST S OF POINT CONCEPTION...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THRU SAT...ALTHO SOME HI CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD END BY THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. SOME GUSTY S TO SW WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY SAT
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS
ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS...WITH A FEW LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST VLYS
OF L.A./VTU COUNTY. A FEW MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPS WILL THEN COOL BACK ON FRI BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED SAT WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMENTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2330Z...

AT 2145Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU THU.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...26/730 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH
AREA APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A
MORE LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES
RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY
AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 270355
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
755 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREATE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH EXITS AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. ON SUNDAY...A
LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR LATE
SUNDAY THEN EXTEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...RATHER WARM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS
TODAY WITH MANY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH A COUPLE OF READINGS
INTO THE LOW 90S. THERE WAS ALSO TWO RECORD HIGHS SET WHICH WERE 87
DEGREES AT LONG BEACH AIRPORT (TIED OLD RECORD OF 87 SET IN 1959)
AND 73 AT SANDBERG (OLD RECORD 70 SET IN 1953).

CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DECENT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST (-4.8 MB
LAX-DAG AT 03Z) WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING LOCALLY GUSTY NE WINDS
BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AND ALSO TO FOOTHILL
AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TEMPS IN THE BREEZY AREAS AND
FOOTHILLS WILL BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. FOR THE
COLDEST WIND SHELTERED COASTAL VALLEYS SUCH AS THE OJAI
VALLEY...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA THRU THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD FRI THRU
SAT...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS MOVING INTO NRN CA BY SAT. THIS
WILL SET UP A BROAD W FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THRU FRI. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND PARTS OF THE COAST S OF POINT CONCEPTION...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THRU SAT...ALTHO SOME HI CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD END BY THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. SOME GUSTY S TO SW WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY SAT
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS
ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS...WITH A FEW LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST VLYS
OF L.A./VTU COUNTY. A FEW MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPS WILL THEN COOL BACK ON FRI BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED SAT WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMENTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2330Z...

AT 2145Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU THU.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...26/730 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH
AREA APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A
MORE LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES
RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY
AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 270355
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
755 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREATE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH EXITS AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. ON SUNDAY...A
LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR LATE
SUNDAY THEN EXTEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...RATHER WARM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS
TODAY WITH MANY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH A COUPLE OF READINGS
INTO THE LOW 90S. THERE WAS ALSO TWO RECORD HIGHS SET WHICH WERE 87
DEGREES AT LONG BEACH AIRPORT (TIED OLD RECORD OF 87 SET IN 1959)
AND 73 AT SANDBERG (OLD RECORD 70 SET IN 1953).

CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DECENT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST (-4.8 MB
LAX-DAG AT 03Z) WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING LOCALLY GUSTY NE WINDS
BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AND ALSO TO FOOTHILL
AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TEMPS IN THE BREEZY AREAS AND
FOOTHILLS WILL BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. FOR THE
COLDEST WIND SHELTERED COASTAL VALLEYS SUCH AS THE OJAI
VALLEY...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA THRU THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD FRI THRU
SAT...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS MOVING INTO NRN CA BY SAT. THIS
WILL SET UP A BROAD W FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THRU FRI. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND PARTS OF THE COAST S OF POINT CONCEPTION...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THRU SAT...ALTHO SOME HI CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD END BY THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. SOME GUSTY S TO SW WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY SAT
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS
ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS...WITH A FEW LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST VLYS
OF L.A./VTU COUNTY. A FEW MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPS WILL THEN COOL BACK ON FRI BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED SAT WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMENTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2330Z...

AT 2145Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU THU.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...26/730 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH
AREA APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A
MORE LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES
RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY
AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 262333 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAKENING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH EVEN
SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING TO SOME COASTAL AREAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, A WARM THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S FOR MOST COAST/VALLEY AREAS, POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED 90 OR
TWO IN THE VALLEYS. BEACHES WILL SPIKE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND COOL OFF SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE MOVES IN. BY SATURDAY HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMENTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2330Z...

AT 2145Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU THU.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS.
OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH AREA
APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A MORE
LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND BUILD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS AREA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 262333 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAKENING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH EVEN
SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING TO SOME COASTAL AREAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, A WARM THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S FOR MOST COAST/VALLEY AREAS, POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED 90 OR
TWO IN THE VALLEYS. BEACHES WILL SPIKE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND COOL OFF SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE MOVES IN. BY SATURDAY HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMENTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2330Z...

AT 2145Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU THU.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS.
OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH AREA
APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A MORE
LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND BUILD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS AREA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 262047
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1245 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAKENING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH EVEN
SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING TO SOME COASTAL AREAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, A WARM THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S FOR MOST COAST/VALLEY AREAS, POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED 90 OR
TWO IN THE VALLEYS. BEACHES WILL SPIKE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND COOL OFF SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE MOVES IN. BY SATURDAY HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMEMTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY
27/12Z. WEAK OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 27/20Z THEN MIXED
WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1735Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH SATUDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS.
OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH AREA
APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A MORE
LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND BUILD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS AREA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 262047
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1245 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAKENING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH EVEN
SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING TO SOME COASTAL AREAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, A WARM THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S FOR MOST COAST/VALLEY AREAS, POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED 90 OR
TWO IN THE VALLEYS. BEACHES WILL SPIKE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND COOL OFF SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE MOVES IN. BY SATURDAY HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMEMTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY
27/12Z. WEAK OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 27/20Z THEN MIXED
WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1735Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH SATUDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS.
OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH AREA
APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A MORE
LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND BUILD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS AREA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 261827
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1018 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NOTHING TO REALLY ADD TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BASIN PROFILERS SHOW 4-7 DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SIMILAR TRENDS FOR TODAY`S
HIGHS. JUST A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH, OTHERWISE JUST LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES. FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE A SOURCE OF SIGNIFICANT FRUSTRATION. MODELS
OBVIOUSLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND I SUSPECT IT WILL BE AT
LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THINGS SETTLE DOWN. IN THE
MEANTIME, REALLY HAVE NO CHOICE OTHER THAN BROAD BRUSHING FORECAST
WITH WISHY-WASHY POPS AND FEW SPECIFICS. A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF RAIN
STILL LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL CERTAINTY, BUT IT LITERALLY COULD FALL
ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THREE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAYS IN A ROW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH 590 DM HGTS AND THEN
SLOWLY FADE THROUGH FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY KIND OF
REAL CANYON WINDS. THREE DAYS IN ROW OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 12 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH RELAXES AND HGTS FALL (MORE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE) BETTER COOLING FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW FINALLY RETURNS BUT STILL MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL CONSPIRE TO BRING BACK MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH NEW NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE
LESS THAN IN CURRENT FCST. LOWER HGTS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO NOSE DIVE WITH THE COAST AND VLYS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

WOULD LOVE TO REPORT THAT THE LONG RANGE MDLS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THAT THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE CASE. EC TOOK A TURN FOR THE
WEIRD AND DELAYS THE STORM TO TUESDAY. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SLOWER
TOO. SO RIGHT NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITS TO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. RAIN MIGHT DEVELOP MONDAY OR
IT MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY OR IF THE NEW EC IS CORRECT TUESDAY
NIGHT. REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE LIKE RAY GUY AND PUNT THIS FCST
INTO TOMORROW AND HOPE FOR SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT. FOR NOW JUST
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WILL BE WET.
BOTH EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN
JUST NO IDEA WHEN.

SKIES WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS SUN TO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION....AVIATION...26/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY
27/12Z. WEAK OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 27/20Z THEN MIXED
WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1735Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH SATUDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS.
OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH AREA
APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A MORE
LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND BUILD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS AREA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 261827
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1018 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NOTHING TO REALLY ADD TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BASIN PROFILERS SHOW 4-7 DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SIMILAR TRENDS FOR TODAY`S
HIGHS. JUST A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH, OTHERWISE JUST LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES. FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE A SOURCE OF SIGNIFICANT FRUSTRATION. MODELS
OBVIOUSLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND I SUSPECT IT WILL BE AT
LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THINGS SETTLE DOWN. IN THE
MEANTIME, REALLY HAVE NO CHOICE OTHER THAN BROAD BRUSHING FORECAST
WITH WISHY-WASHY POPS AND FEW SPECIFICS. A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF RAIN
STILL LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL CERTAINTY, BUT IT LITERALLY COULD FALL
ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THREE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAYS IN A ROW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH 590 DM HGTS AND THEN
SLOWLY FADE THROUGH FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY KIND OF
REAL CANYON WINDS. THREE DAYS IN ROW OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 12 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH RELAXES AND HGTS FALL (MORE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE) BETTER COOLING FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW FINALLY RETURNS BUT STILL MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL CONSPIRE TO BRING BACK MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH NEW NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE
LESS THAN IN CURRENT FCST. LOWER HGTS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO NOSE DIVE WITH THE COAST AND VLYS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

WOULD LOVE TO REPORT THAT THE LONG RANGE MDLS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THAT THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE CASE. EC TOOK A TURN FOR THE
WEIRD AND DELAYS THE STORM TO TUESDAY. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SLOWER
TOO. SO RIGHT NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITS TO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. RAIN MIGHT DEVELOP MONDAY OR
IT MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY OR IF THE NEW EC IS CORRECT TUESDAY
NIGHT. REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE LIKE RAY GUY AND PUNT THIS FCST
INTO TOMORROW AND HOPE FOR SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT. FOR NOW JUST
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WILL BE WET.
BOTH EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN
JUST NO IDEA WHEN.

SKIES WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS SUN TO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION....AVIATION...26/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY
27/12Z. WEAK OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 27/20Z THEN MIXED
WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1735Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH SATUDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS.
OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH AREA
APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A MORE
LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND BUILD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS AREA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 261727
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NOTHING TO REALLY ADD TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BASIN PROFILERS SHOW 4-7 DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SIMILAR TRENDS FOR TODAY`S
HIGHS. JUST A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH, OTHERWISE JUST LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES. FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE A SOURCE OF SIGNIFICANT FRUSTRATION. MODELS
OBVIOUSLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND I SUSPECT IT WILL BE AT
LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THINGS SETTLE DOWN. IN THE
MEANTIME, REALLY HAVE NO CHOICE OTHER THAN BROAD BRUSHING FORECAST
WITH WISHY-WASHY POPS AND FEW SPECIFICS. A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF RAIN
STILL LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL CERTAINTY, BUT IT LITERALLY COULD FALL
ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THREE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAYS IN A ROW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH 590 DM HGTS AND THEN
SLOWLY FADE THROUGH FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY KIND OF
REAL CANYON WINDS. THREE DAYS IN ROW OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 12 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH RELAXES AND HGTS FALL (MORE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE) BETTER COOLING FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW FINALLY RETURNS BUT STILL MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL CONSPIRE TO BRING BACK MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH NEW NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE
LESS THAN IN CURRENT FCST. LOWER HGTS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO NOSE DIVE WITH THE COAST AND VLYS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

WOULD LOVE TO REPORT THAT THE LONG RANGE MDLS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THAT THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE CASE. EC TOOK A TURN FOR THE
WEIRD AND DELAYS THE STORM TO TUESDAY. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SLOWER
TOO. SO RIGHT NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITS TO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. RAIN MIGHT DEVELOP MONDAY OR
IT MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY OR IF THE NEW EC IS CORRECT TUESDAY
NIGHT. REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE LIKE RAY GUY AND PUNT THIS FCST
INTO TOMORROW AND HOPE FOR SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT. FOR NOW JUST
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WILL BE WET.
BOTH EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN
JUST NO IDEA WHEN.

SKIES WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS SUN TO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1030Z

AT 0915Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAS WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 23 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH AS NOT TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ONSHORE WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 261727
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NOTHING TO REALLY ADD TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BASIN PROFILERS SHOW 4-7 DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SIMILAR TRENDS FOR TODAY`S
HIGHS. JUST A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH, OTHERWISE JUST LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES. FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE A SOURCE OF SIGNIFICANT FRUSTRATION. MODELS
OBVIOUSLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND I SUSPECT IT WILL BE AT
LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THINGS SETTLE DOWN. IN THE
MEANTIME, REALLY HAVE NO CHOICE OTHER THAN BROAD BRUSHING FORECAST
WITH WISHY-WASHY POPS AND FEW SPECIFICS. A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF RAIN
STILL LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL CERTAINTY, BUT IT LITERALLY COULD FALL
ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THREE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAYS IN A ROW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH 590 DM HGTS AND THEN
SLOWLY FADE THROUGH FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY KIND OF
REAL CANYON WINDS. THREE DAYS IN ROW OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 12 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH RELAXES AND HGTS FALL (MORE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE) BETTER COOLING FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW FINALLY RETURNS BUT STILL MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL CONSPIRE TO BRING BACK MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH NEW NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE
LESS THAN IN CURRENT FCST. LOWER HGTS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO NOSE DIVE WITH THE COAST AND VLYS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

WOULD LOVE TO REPORT THAT THE LONG RANGE MDLS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THAT THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE CASE. EC TOOK A TURN FOR THE
WEIRD AND DELAYS THE STORM TO TUESDAY. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SLOWER
TOO. SO RIGHT NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITS TO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. RAIN MIGHT DEVELOP MONDAY OR
IT MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY OR IF THE NEW EC IS CORRECT TUESDAY
NIGHT. REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE LIKE RAY GUY AND PUNT THIS FCST
INTO TOMORROW AND HOPE FOR SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT. FOR NOW JUST
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WILL BE WET.
BOTH EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN
JUST NO IDEA WHEN.

SKIES WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS SUN TO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1030Z

AT 0915Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAS WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 23 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH AS NOT TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ONSHORE WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 261120
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL
SOME ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
THREE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAYS IN A ROW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH 590 DM HGTS AND THEN
SLOWLY FADE THROUGH FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY KIND OF
REAL CANYON WINDS. THREE DAYS IN ROW OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 12 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH RELAXES AND HGTS FALL (MORE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE) BETTER COOLING FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW FINALLY RETURNS BUT STILL MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL CONSPIRE TO BRING BACK MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH NEW NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE
LESS THAN IN CURRENT FCST. LOWER HGTS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO NOSE DIVE WITH THE COAST AND VLYS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

WOULD LOVE TO REPORT THAT THE LONG RANGE MDLS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THAT THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE CASE. EC TOOK A TURN FOR THE
WEIRD AND DELAYS THE STORM TO TUESDAY. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SLOWER
TOO. SO RIGHT NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITS TO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. RAIN MIGHT DEVELOP MONDAY OR
IT MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY OR IF THE NEW EC IS CORRECT TUESDAY
NIGHT. REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE LIKE RAY GUY AND PUNT THIS FCST
INTO TOMORROW AND HOPE FOR SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT. FOR NOW JUST
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WILL BE WET.
BOTH EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN
JUST NO IDEA WHEN.

SKIES WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS SUN TO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1030Z

AT 0915Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAS WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 23 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH AS NOT TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ONSHORE WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 261120
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL
SOME ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
THREE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAYS IN A ROW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH 590 DM HGTS AND THEN
SLOWLY FADE THROUGH FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY KIND OF
REAL CANYON WINDS. THREE DAYS IN ROW OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 12 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH RELAXES AND HGTS FALL (MORE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE) BETTER COOLING FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW FINALLY RETURNS BUT STILL MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL CONSPIRE TO BRING BACK MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH NEW NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE
LESS THAN IN CURRENT FCST. LOWER HGTS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO NOSE DIVE WITH THE COAST AND VLYS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

WOULD LOVE TO REPORT THAT THE LONG RANGE MDLS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THAT THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE CASE. EC TOOK A TURN FOR THE
WEIRD AND DELAYS THE STORM TO TUESDAY. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SLOWER
TOO. SO RIGHT NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITS TO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. RAIN MIGHT DEVELOP MONDAY OR
IT MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY OR IF THE NEW EC IS CORRECT TUESDAY
NIGHT. REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE LIKE RAY GUY AND PUNT THIS FCST
INTO TOMORROW AND HOPE FOR SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT. FOR NOW JUST
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WILL BE WET.
BOTH EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN
JUST NO IDEA WHEN.

SKIES WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS SUN TO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1030Z

AT 0915Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAS WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 23 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH AS NOT TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ONSHORE WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 260540
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL
SOME ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY N TO NE WINDS TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SBA/VTU/L.A.
COUNTY MTNS...SBA S COAST...SANTA MONICA MTNS AND POSSIBLY IN THE
SANTA CLARITA VLY. SOME OF THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND BREEZY VLYS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 60S.
THE COLDEST WIND-SHELTERED CSTL VLYS SUCH AS THE OJAI VLY WILL TURN
QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE VLY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HI PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WED. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY...THEN
WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE S THU NIGHT AND FRI...ALLOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS TO LOWER WITH BROAD WSW WINDS OVER SRN CA. WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL PERSIST INTO THU
MORNING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED THRU FRI...ALTHO THERE MAY
BE A FEW HI CLOUDS AT TIMES THANKSGIVING DAY THRU FRI. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WED AND THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MANY COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AREAS. IN FACT...TEMPS EACH DAY MAY APPROACH RECORDS IN THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS. FOR FRI...WITH THE ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL
TURN COOLER BUT STILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL
AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/0540Z

AT 0445Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION AT KLAX.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z CAVU TAFS.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z CAVU TAF.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...25/800 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA
MONICA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE WEST SWELL IS FORECAST BY THE WAVE MODELS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUILDING TO AROUND 10-14 FEET LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
MAY REMAIN AT SCA LEVEL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 260540
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL
SOME ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY N TO NE WINDS TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SBA/VTU/L.A.
COUNTY MTNS...SBA S COAST...SANTA MONICA MTNS AND POSSIBLY IN THE
SANTA CLARITA VLY. SOME OF THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND BREEZY VLYS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 60S.
THE COLDEST WIND-SHELTERED CSTL VLYS SUCH AS THE OJAI VLY WILL TURN
QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE VLY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HI PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WED. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY...THEN
WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE S THU NIGHT AND FRI...ALLOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS TO LOWER WITH BROAD WSW WINDS OVER SRN CA. WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL PERSIST INTO THU
MORNING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED THRU FRI...ALTHO THERE MAY
BE A FEW HI CLOUDS AT TIMES THANKSGIVING DAY THRU FRI. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WED AND THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MANY COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AREAS. IN FACT...TEMPS EACH DAY MAY APPROACH RECORDS IN THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS. FOR FRI...WITH THE ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL
TURN COOLER BUT STILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL
AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/0540Z

AT 0445Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION AT KLAX.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z CAVU TAFS.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z CAVU TAF.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...25/800 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA
MONICA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE WEST SWELL IS FORECAST BY THE WAVE MODELS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUILDING TO AROUND 10-14 FEET LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
MAY REMAIN AT SCA LEVEL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 260417
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL
SOME ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY N TO NE WINDS TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SBA/VTU/L.A.
COUNTY MTNS...SBA S COAST...SANTA MONICA MTNS AND POSSIBLY IN THE
SANTA CLARITA VLY. SOME OF THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND BREEZY VLYS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 60S.
THE COLDEST WIND-SHELTERED CSTL VLYS SUCH AS THE OJAI VLY WILL TURN
QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE VLY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HI PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WED. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY...THEN
WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE S THU NIGHT AND FRI...ALLOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS TO LOWER WITH BROAD WSW WINDS OVER SRN CA. WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL PERSIST INTO THU
MORNING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED THRU FRI...ALTHO THERE MAY
BE A FEW HI CLOUDS AT TIMES THANKSGIVING DAY THRU FRI. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WED AND THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MANY COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AREAS. IN FACT...TEMPS EACH DAY MAY APPROACH RECORDS IN THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS. FOR FRI...WITH THE ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL
TURN COOLER BUT STILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL
AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0030Z...

AT 2335Z...THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1700 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU WED.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...25/800 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA
MONICA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE WEST SWELL IS FORECAST BY THE WAVE MODELS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUILDING TO AROUND 10-14 FEET LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
MAY REMAIN AT SCA LEVEL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 260417
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL
SOME ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY N TO NE WINDS TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SBA/VTU/L.A.
COUNTY MTNS...SBA S COAST...SANTA MONICA MTNS AND POSSIBLY IN THE
SANTA CLARITA VLY. SOME OF THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND BREEZY VLYS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 60S.
THE COLDEST WIND-SHELTERED CSTL VLYS SUCH AS THE OJAI VLY WILL TURN
QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE VLY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HI PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WED. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY...THEN
WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE S THU NIGHT AND FRI...ALLOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS TO LOWER WITH BROAD WSW WINDS OVER SRN CA. WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL PERSIST INTO THU
MORNING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED THRU FRI...ALTHO THERE MAY
BE A FEW HI CLOUDS AT TIMES THANKSGIVING DAY THRU FRI. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WED AND THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MANY COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AREAS. IN FACT...TEMPS EACH DAY MAY APPROACH RECORDS IN THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS. FOR FRI...WITH THE ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL
TURN COOLER BUT STILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL
AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0030Z...

AT 2335Z...THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1700 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU WED.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...25/800 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA
MONICA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE WEST SWELL IS FORECAST BY THE WAVE MODELS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUILDING TO AROUND 10-14 FEET LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
MAY REMAIN AT SCA LEVEL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 260417
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL
SOME ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY N TO NE WINDS TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SBA/VTU/L.A.
COUNTY MTNS...SBA S COAST...SANTA MONICA MTNS AND POSSIBLY IN THE
SANTA CLARITA VLY. SOME OF THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND BREEZY VLYS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 60S.
THE COLDEST WIND-SHELTERED CSTL VLYS SUCH AS THE OJAI VLY WILL TURN
QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE VLY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HI PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WED. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY...THEN
WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE S THU NIGHT AND FRI...ALLOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS TO LOWER WITH BROAD WSW WINDS OVER SRN CA. WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL PERSIST INTO THU
MORNING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED THRU FRI...ALTHO THERE MAY
BE A FEW HI CLOUDS AT TIMES THANKSGIVING DAY THRU FRI. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WED AND THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MANY COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AREAS. IN FACT...TEMPS EACH DAY MAY APPROACH RECORDS IN THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS. FOR FRI...WITH THE ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL
TURN COOLER BUT STILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL
AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0030Z...

AT 2335Z...THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1700 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU WED.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...25/800 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA
MONICA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE WEST SWELL IS FORECAST BY THE WAVE MODELS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUILDING TO AROUND 10-14 FEET LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
MAY REMAIN AT SCA LEVEL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 260038 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...WARM WEATHER WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED
TODAY AND ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS, INCLUDING THE RED FLAG HAVE BEEN
LET GO OR WILL BE SOON. ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO BUMP
TEMPS UP ON THANKSGIVING A FEW DEGREES TO BE CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY`S
LEVELS.

GRADIENTS WILL START TRENDING ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. STILL
ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER BY 5-7 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. STILL CLEAR SKIES
BUT LIKELY SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0030Z...

AT 2335Z...THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1700 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU WED.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...25/100 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA.  A DYNAMIC FETCH AREA
ORIENTED 330-310 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SEAS 20 FEET WHILE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK MONDAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 260038 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...WARM WEATHER WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED
TODAY AND ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS, INCLUDING THE RED FLAG HAVE BEEN
LET GO OR WILL BE SOON. ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO BUMP
TEMPS UP ON THANKSGIVING A FEW DEGREES TO BE CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY`S
LEVELS.

GRADIENTS WILL START TRENDING ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. STILL
ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER BY 5-7 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. STILL CLEAR SKIES
BUT LIKELY SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0030Z...

AT 2335Z...THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1700 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU WED.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...25/100 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA.  A DYNAMIC FETCH AREA
ORIENTED 330-310 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SEAS 20 FEET WHILE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK MONDAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 252118
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
115 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...WARM WEATHER WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED
TODAY AND ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS, INCLUDING THE RED FLAG HAVE BEEN
LET GO OR WILL BE SOON. ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO BUMP
TEMPS UP ON THANKSGIVING A FEW DEGREES TO BE CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY`S
LEVELS.

GRADIENTS WILL START TRENDING ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. STILL
ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER BY 5-7 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. STILL CLEAR SKIES
BUT LIKELY SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSTIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST.
UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS WEAK EAST AFTER 26/07Z. MIXED WEAK
ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 26/02Z AND AFTER
26/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1710Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 26/05-26/21Z AND
LESS THAN 10 KT.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/100 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA.  A DYNAMIC FETCH AREA
ORIENTED 330-310 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SEAS 20 FEET WHILE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK MONDAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 252118
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
115 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...WARM WEATHER WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED
TODAY AND ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS, INCLUDING THE RED FLAG HAVE BEEN
LET GO OR WILL BE SOON. ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO BUMP
TEMPS UP ON THANKSGIVING A FEW DEGREES TO BE CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY`S
LEVELS.

GRADIENTS WILL START TRENDING ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. STILL
ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER BY 5-7 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. STILL CLEAR SKIES
BUT LIKELY SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSTIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST.
UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS WEAK EAST AFTER 26/07Z. MIXED WEAK
ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 26/02Z AND AFTER
26/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1710Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 26/05-26/21Z AND
LESS THAN 10 KT.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/100 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA.  A DYNAMIC FETCH AREA
ORIENTED 330-310 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SEAS 20 FEET WHILE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK MONDAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 251748
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
947 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
BIG 592 DM EAST PAC UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WEATHER.
IT WILL PUSH CLOSER TO CA TODAY...THE PEAK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL DIMINISH SOME THU AND THEN SOME MORE FRIDAY AS A STORM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW AND PUSHES THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH.

OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A SFC HIGH OVER WILL PEAK TODAY...DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THEN SOME MORE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL
FINALLY TURN BACK ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY SIZABLE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT A FEW DAYS AGO
HAS TURNED OUT MUCH WEAKER. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS TODAY IN
THE MTNS THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE ERN VTA VLYS AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS THAT JUST REACH INTO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT JUST. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE VTA COAST
AND THE MALIBU STRIP. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE
ADVISORIES WILL END AT NOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CANYON
WINDS WED MORNING BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD BE BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAX TEMPS ARE THE BIG STORY. RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO A NICE JUMP IN TEMPS TODAY...FURTHER WARMING IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER HIGH PEAKS OVER THE AREA. TODAYS HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS...MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW SLOWLY
DECREASES SO WILL THE TEMPS AND BOTH THU AND FRI WILL BE COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. STILL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-MON)...
ALL EYES ON THE BIG PATTER SHIFT THAT WILL START SATURDAY AND WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL TERMS AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH CA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL SWING A TROF OVER THE STATE AT SOME TIME SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. QUITE CERTAIN THAT ALL OF THE SOUTHLAND IS GOING TO SEE
SOME RAIN. WHAT IS NOT CERTAIN IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL START...WHEN IT
WILL END AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL.

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PROMISING AGREEMENT EARLIER
THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE THE EC IS NOW SLOWER WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROF. THE
GFS BRINGS THE RAIN IN EARLIER THAN THE EC...ENDS THE RAIN EARLIER
AND GIVES THE AREA LESS RAIN IN GENERAL THAN THE SLOWER WETTER EC.
MDL ENSEMBLE RUNS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE EC SO PUSHED THE FORECAST A
LITTLE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE EC. IF THE EC VERIFIES ONLY THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAIN ON SUNDAY AND LA COUNTY WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. ACTUALLY NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT TOTALLY REMOVE RAIN CHCS FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER SINCE THE MDLS ARE NOW BOUNCING AROUND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TONIGHTS RUNS BRING THE RAIN ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS STORM COULD BE QUITE A SOAKER AND IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH IT DEVELOP.

KNOW SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPORTANT TRAVEL DAY AND HOPE FOR A
LESS WISHY WASHY FORECAST IN THE NEXT 36 OR 48 HOURS.

AMONG THE OTHER DETAILS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
EACH DAY WITH THE BIGGEST DROP ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BY SUNDAY. A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AND A LITTLE LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THE TROF. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES NEARER TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST.
UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS WEAK EAST AFTER 26/07Z. MIXED WEAK
ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 26/02Z AND AFTER
26/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1710Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 26/05-26/21Z AND
LESS THAN 10 KT.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM...

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA.  A DYNAMIC FETCH AREA
ORIENTED 330-310 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SEAS 20 FEET WHILE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK MONDAY.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...25/915 AM.
THE GUSTY WINDS FROM YESTERDAY HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY...AS COLD
AIR THAT WAS EXPECTED TO FUEL ANOTHER WIND BOOST MOVED MUCH FURTHER
TO THE EAST. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH. DESPITE WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES UNDER 10 PERCENT...THESE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL AND LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY
WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL LOOK MARGINAL
AT MOST. WEAKER WINDS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT A DECISION ON WHETHER THE RED FLAG WARNING SHOULD BE
CANCELED WILL BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING IF WINDS DEVELOP
TODAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 251748
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
947 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
BIG 592 DM EAST PAC UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WEATHER.
IT WILL PUSH CLOSER TO CA TODAY...THE PEAK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL DIMINISH SOME THU AND THEN SOME MORE FRIDAY AS A STORM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW AND PUSHES THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH.

OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A SFC HIGH OVER WILL PEAK TODAY...DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THEN SOME MORE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL
FINALLY TURN BACK ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY SIZABLE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT A FEW DAYS AGO
HAS TURNED OUT MUCH WEAKER. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS TODAY IN
THE MTNS THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE ERN VTA VLYS AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS THAT JUST REACH INTO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT JUST. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE VTA COAST
AND THE MALIBU STRIP. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE
ADVISORIES WILL END AT NOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CANYON
WINDS WED MORNING BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD BE BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAX TEMPS ARE THE BIG STORY. RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO A NICE JUMP IN TEMPS TODAY...FURTHER WARMING IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER HIGH PEAKS OVER THE AREA. TODAYS HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS...MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW SLOWLY
DECREASES SO WILL THE TEMPS AND BOTH THU AND FRI WILL BE COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. STILL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-MON)...
ALL EYES ON THE BIG PATTER SHIFT THAT WILL START SATURDAY AND WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL TERMS AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH CA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL SWING A TROF OVER THE STATE AT SOME TIME SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. QUITE CERTAIN THAT ALL OF THE SOUTHLAND IS GOING TO SEE
SOME RAIN. WHAT IS NOT CERTAIN IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL START...WHEN IT
WILL END AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL.

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PROMISING AGREEMENT EARLIER
THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE THE EC IS NOW SLOWER WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROF. THE
GFS BRINGS THE RAIN IN EARLIER THAN THE EC...ENDS THE RAIN EARLIER
AND GIVES THE AREA LESS RAIN IN GENERAL THAN THE SLOWER WETTER EC.
MDL ENSEMBLE RUNS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE EC SO PUSHED THE FORECAST A
LITTLE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE EC. IF THE EC VERIFIES ONLY THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAIN ON SUNDAY AND LA COUNTY WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. ACTUALLY NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT TOTALLY REMOVE RAIN CHCS FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER SINCE THE MDLS ARE NOW BOUNCING AROUND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TONIGHTS RUNS BRING THE RAIN ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS STORM COULD BE QUITE A SOAKER AND IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH IT DEVELOP.

KNOW SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPORTANT TRAVEL DAY AND HOPE FOR A
LESS WISHY WASHY FORECAST IN THE NEXT 36 OR 48 HOURS.

AMONG THE OTHER DETAILS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
EACH DAY WITH THE BIGGEST DROP ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BY SUNDAY. A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AND A LITTLE LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THE TROF. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES NEARER TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST.
UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS WEAK EAST AFTER 26/07Z. MIXED WEAK
ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 26/02Z AND AFTER
26/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1710Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 26/05-26/21Z AND
LESS THAN 10 KT.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM...

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA.  A DYNAMIC FETCH AREA
ORIENTED 330-310 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SEAS 20 FEET WHILE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK MONDAY.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...25/915 AM.
THE GUSTY WINDS FROM YESTERDAY HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY...AS COLD
AIR THAT WAS EXPECTED TO FUEL ANOTHER WIND BOOST MOVED MUCH FURTHER
TO THE EAST. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH. DESPITE WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES UNDER 10 PERCENT...THESE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL AND LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY
WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL LOOK MARGINAL
AT MOST. WEAKER WINDS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT A DECISION ON WHETHER THE RED FLAG WARNING SHOULD BE
CANCELED WILL BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING IF WINDS DEVELOP
TODAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 251734
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
933 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
BIG 592 DM EAST PAC UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WEATHER.
IT WILL PUSH CLOSER TO CA TODAY...THE PEAK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL DIMINISH SOME THU AND THEN SOME MORE FRIDAY AS A STORM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW AND PUSHES THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH.

OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A SFC HIGH OVER WILL PEAK TODAY...DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THEN SOME MORE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL
FINALLY TURN BACK ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY SIZABLE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT A FEW DAYS AGO
HAS TURNED OUT MUCH WEAKER. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS TODAY IN
THE MTNS THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE ERN VTA VLYS AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS THAT JUST REACH INTO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT JUST. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE VTA COAST
AND THE MALIBU STRIP. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE
ADVISORIES WILL END AT NOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CANYON
WINDS WED MORNING BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD BE BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAX TEMPS ARE THE BIG STORY. RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO A NICE JUMP IN TEMPS TODAY...FURTHER WARMING IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER HIGH PEAKS OVER THE AREA. TODAYS HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS...MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW SLOWLY
DECREASES SO WILL THE TEMPS AND BOTH THU AND FRI WILL BE COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. STILL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-MON)...
ALL EYES ON THE BIG PATTER SHIFT THAT WILL START SATURDAY AND WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL TERMS AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH CA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL SWING A TROF OVER THE STATE AT SOME TIME SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. QUITE CERTAIN THAT ALL OF THE SOUTHLAND IS GOING TO SEE
SOME RAIN. WHAT IS NOT CERTAIN IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL START...WHEN IT
WILL END AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL.

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PROMISING AGREEMENT EARLIER
THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE THE EC IS NOW SLOWER WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROF. THE
GFS BRINGS THE RAIN IN EARLIER THAN THE EC...ENDS THE RAIN EARLIER
AND GIVES THE AREA LESS RAIN IN GENERAL THAN THE SLOWER WETTER EC.
MDL ENSEMBLE RUNS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE EC SO PUSHED THE FORECAST A
LITTLE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE EC. IF THE EC VERIFIES ONLY THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAIN ON SUNDAY AND LA COUNTY WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. ACTUALLY NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT TOTALLY REMOVE RAIN CHCS FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER SINCE THE MDLS ARE NOW BOUNCING AROUND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TONIGHTS RUNS BRING THE RAIN ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS STORM COULD BE QUITE A SOAKER AND IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH IT DEVELOP.

KNOW SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPORTANT TRAVEL DAY AND HOPE FOR A
LESS WISHY WASHY FORECAST IN THE NEXT 36 OR 48 HOURS.

AMONG THE OTHER DETAILS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
EACH DAY WITH THE BIGGEST DROP ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BY SUNDAY. A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AND A LITTLE LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THE TROF. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES NEARER TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1030Z

THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT 25/0910Z WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREE CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW...CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LGT-MDT LLWS AND TURBULENCE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF AN
EASTERLY WIND OF 8 KNOTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM...

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA.  A DYNAMIC FETCH AREA
ORIENTED 330-310 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SEAS 20 FEET WHILE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK MONDAY.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...25/915 AM.
THE GUSTY WINDS FROM YESTERDAY HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY...AS COLD
AIR THAT WAS EXPECTED TO FUEL ANOTHER WIND BOOST MOVED MUCH FURTHER
TO THE EAST. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH. DESPITE WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES UNDER 10 PERCENT...THESE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL AND LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY
WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL LOOK MARGINAL
AT MOST. WEAKER WINDS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT A DECISION ON WHETHER THE RED FLAG WARNING SHOULD BE
CANCELED WILL BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING IF WINDS DEVELOP
TODAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/30
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 251734
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
933 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
BIG 592 DM EAST PAC UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WEATHER.
IT WILL PUSH CLOSER TO CA TODAY...THE PEAK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL DIMINISH SOME THU AND THEN SOME MORE FRIDAY AS A STORM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW AND PUSHES THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH.

OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A SFC HIGH OVER WILL PEAK TODAY...DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THEN SOME MORE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL
FINALLY TURN BACK ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY SIZABLE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT A FEW DAYS AGO
HAS TURNED OUT MUCH WEAKER. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS TODAY IN
THE MTNS THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE ERN VTA VLYS AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS THAT JUST REACH INTO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT JUST. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE VTA COAST
AND THE MALIBU STRIP. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE
ADVISORIES WILL END AT NOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CANYON
WINDS WED MORNING BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD BE BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAX TEMPS ARE THE BIG STORY. RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO A NICE JUMP IN TEMPS TODAY...FURTHER WARMING IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER HIGH PEAKS OVER THE AREA. TODAYS HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS...MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW SLOWLY
DECREASES SO WILL THE TEMPS AND BOTH THU AND FRI WILL BE COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. STILL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-MON)...
ALL EYES ON THE BIG PATTER SHIFT THAT WILL START SATURDAY AND WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL TERMS AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH CA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL SWING A TROF OVER THE STATE AT SOME TIME SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. QUITE CERTAIN THAT ALL OF THE SOUTHLAND IS GOING TO SEE
SOME RAIN. WHAT IS NOT CERTAIN IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL START...WHEN IT
WILL END AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL.

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PROMISING AGREEMENT EARLIER
THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE THE EC IS NOW SLOWER WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROF. THE
GFS BRINGS THE RAIN IN EARLIER THAN THE EC...ENDS THE RAIN EARLIER
AND GIVES THE AREA LESS RAIN IN GENERAL THAN THE SLOWER WETTER EC.
MDL ENSEMBLE RUNS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE EC SO PUSHED THE FORECAST A
LITTLE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE EC. IF THE EC VERIFIES ONLY THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAIN ON SUNDAY AND LA COUNTY WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. ACTUALLY NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT TOTALLY REMOVE RAIN CHCS FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER SINCE THE MDLS ARE NOW BOUNCING AROUND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TONIGHTS RUNS BRING THE RAIN ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS STORM COULD BE QUITE A SOAKER AND IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH IT DEVELOP.

KNOW SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPORTANT TRAVEL DAY AND HOPE FOR A
LESS WISHY WASHY FORECAST IN THE NEXT 36 OR 48 HOURS.

AMONG THE OTHER DETAILS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
EACH DAY WITH THE BIGGEST DROP ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BY SUNDAY. A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AND A LITTLE LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THE TROF. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES NEARER TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1030Z

THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT 25/0910Z WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREE CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW...CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LGT-MDT LLWS AND TURBULENCE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF AN
EASTERLY WIND OF 8 KNOTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM...

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA.  A DYNAMIC FETCH AREA
ORIENTED 330-310 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SEAS 20 FEET WHILE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK MONDAY.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...25/915 AM.
THE GUSTY WINDS FROM YESTERDAY HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY...AS COLD
AIR THAT WAS EXPECTED TO FUEL ANOTHER WIND BOOST MOVED MUCH FURTHER
TO THE EAST. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH. DESPITE WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES UNDER 10 PERCENT...THESE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL AND LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY
WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL LOOK MARGINAL
AT MOST. WEAKER WINDS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT A DECISION ON WHETHER THE RED FLAG WARNING SHOULD BE
CANCELED WILL BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING IF WINDS DEVELOP
TODAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/30
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 251717
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
BIG 592 DM EAST PAC UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WEATHER.
IT WILL PUSH CLOSER TO CA TODAY...THE PEAK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL DIMINISH SOME THU AND THEN SOME MORE FRIDAY AS A STORM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW AND PUSHES THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH.

OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A SFC HIGH OVER WILL PEAK TODAY...DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THEN SOME MORE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL
FINALLY TURN BACK ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY SIZABLE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT A FEW DAYS AGO
HAS TURNED OUT MUCH WEAKER. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS TODAY IN
THE MTNS THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE ERN VTA VLYS AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS THAT JUST REACH INTO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT JUST. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE VTA COAST
AND THE MALIBU STRIP. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE
ADVISORIES WILL END AT NOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CANYON
WINDS WED MORNING BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD BE BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAX TEMPS ARE THE BIG STORY. RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO A NICE JUMP IN TEMPS TODAY...FURTHER WARMING IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER HIGH PEAKS OVER THE AREA. TODAYS HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS...MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW SLOWLY
DECREASES SO WILL THE TEMPS AND BOTH THU AND FRI WILL BE COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. STILL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-MON)...
ALL EYES ON THE BIG PATTER SHIFT THAT WILL START SATURDAY AND WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL TERMS AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH CA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL SWING A TROF OVER THE STATE AT SOME TIME SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. QUITE CERTAIN THAT ALL OF THE SOUTHLAND IS GOING TO SEE
SOME RAIN. WHAT IS NOT CERTAIN IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL START...WHEN IT
WILL END AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL.

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PROMISING AGREEMENT EARLIER
THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE THE EC IS NOW SLOWER WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROF. THE
GFS BRINGS THE RAIN IN EARLIER THAN THE EC...ENDS THE RAIN EARLIER
AND GIVES THE AREA LESS RAIN IN GENERAL THAN THE SLOWER WETTER EC.
MDL ENSEMBLE RUNS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE EC SO PUSHED THE FORECAST A
LITTLE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE EC. IF THE EC VERIFIES ONLY THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAIN ON SUNDAY AND LA COUNTY WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. ACTUALLY NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT TOTALLY REMOVE RAIN CHCS FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER SINCE THE MDLS ARE NOW BOUNCING AROUND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TONIGHTS RUNS BRING THE RAIN ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS STORM COULD BE QUITE A SOAKER AND IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH IT DEVELOP.

KNOW SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPORTANT TRAVEL DAY AND HOPE FOR A
LESS WISHY WASHY FORECAST IN THE NEXT 36 OR 48 HOURS.

AMONG THE OTHER DETAILS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
EACH DAY WITH THE BIGGEST DROP ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BY SUNDAY. A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AND A LITTLE LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THE TROF. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES NEARER TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1030Z

THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT 25/0910Z WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREE CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW...CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LGT-MDT LLWS AND TURBULENCE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF AN
EASTERLY WIND OF 8 KNOTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

25/200 AM

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BEGINNING
SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AHEAD OF A STORM APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING
FROM ABOUT POINT MUGU TO SANTA MONICA WITH LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOT NEARSHORE BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. OTHERWISE...WEAK NORTHEAST
FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEAK ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS...TURNING WEAK ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A GENERAL WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...25/915 AM.
THE GUSTY WINDS FROM YESTERDAY HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY...AS COLD
AIR THAT WAS EXPECTED TO FUEL ANOTHER WIND BOOST MOVED MUCH FURTHER
TO THE EAST. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH. DESPITE WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES UNDER 10 PERCENT...THESE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL AND LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY
WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL LOOK MARGINAL
AT MOST. WEAKER WINDS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT A DECISION ON WHETHER THE RED FLAG WARNING SHOULD BE
CANCELED WILL BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING IF WINDS DEVELOP
TODAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 251717
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
BIG 592 DM EAST PAC UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WEATHER.
IT WILL PUSH CLOSER TO CA TODAY...THE PEAK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL DIMINISH SOME THU AND THEN SOME MORE FRIDAY AS A STORM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW AND PUSHES THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH.

OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A SFC HIGH OVER WILL PEAK TODAY...DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THEN SOME MORE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL
FINALLY TURN BACK ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY SIZABLE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT A FEW DAYS AGO
HAS TURNED OUT MUCH WEAKER. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS TODAY IN
THE MTNS THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE ERN VTA VLYS AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS THAT JUST REACH INTO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT JUST. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE VTA COAST
AND THE MALIBU STRIP. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE
ADVISORIES WILL END AT NOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CANYON
WINDS WED MORNING BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD BE BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAX TEMPS ARE THE BIG STORY. RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO A NICE JUMP IN TEMPS TODAY...FURTHER WARMING IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER HIGH PEAKS OVER THE AREA. TODAYS HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS...MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW SLOWLY
DECREASES SO WILL THE TEMPS AND BOTH THU AND FRI WILL BE COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. STILL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-MON)...
ALL EYES ON THE BIG PATTER SHIFT THAT WILL START SATURDAY AND WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL TERMS AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH CA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL SWING A TROF OVER THE STATE AT SOME TIME SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. QUITE CERTAIN THAT ALL OF THE SOUTHLAND IS GOING TO SEE
SOME RAIN. WHAT IS NOT CERTAIN IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL START...WHEN IT
WILL END AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL.

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PROMISING AGREEMENT EARLIER
THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE THE EC IS NOW SLOWER WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROF. THE
GFS BRINGS THE RAIN IN EARLIER THAN THE EC...ENDS THE RAIN EARLIER
AND GIVES THE AREA LESS RAIN IN GENERAL THAN THE SLOWER WETTER EC.
MDL ENSEMBLE RUNS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE EC SO PUSHED THE FORECAST A
LITTLE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE EC. IF THE EC VERIFIES ONLY THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAIN ON SUNDAY AND LA COUNTY WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. ACTUALLY NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT TOTALLY REMOVE RAIN CHCS FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER SINCE THE MDLS ARE NOW BOUNCING AROUND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TONIGHTS RUNS BRING THE RAIN ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS STORM COULD BE QUITE A SOAKER AND IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH IT DEVELOP.

KNOW SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPORTANT TRAVEL DAY AND HOPE FOR A
LESS WISHY WASHY FORECAST IN THE NEXT 36 OR 48 HOURS.

AMONG THE OTHER DETAILS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
EACH DAY WITH THE BIGGEST DROP ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BY SUNDAY. A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AND A LITTLE LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THE TROF. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES NEARER TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1030Z

THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT 25/0910Z WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREE CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW...CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LGT-MDT LLWS AND TURBULENCE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF AN
EASTERLY WIND OF 8 KNOTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

25/200 AM

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BEGINNING
SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AHEAD OF A STORM APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING
FROM ABOUT POINT MUGU TO SANTA MONICA WITH LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOT NEARSHORE BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. OTHERWISE...WEAK NORTHEAST
FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEAK ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS...TURNING WEAK ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A GENERAL WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...25/915 AM.
THE GUSTY WINDS FROM YESTERDAY HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY...AS COLD
AIR THAT WAS EXPECTED TO FUEL ANOTHER WIND BOOST MOVED MUCH FURTHER
TO THE EAST. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH. DESPITE WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES UNDER 10 PERCENT...THESE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL AND LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY
WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL LOOK MARGINAL
AT MOST. WEAKER WINDS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT A DECISION ON WHETHER THE RED FLAG WARNING SHOULD BE
CANCELED WILL BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING IF WINDS DEVELOP
TODAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 251128
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. THERE WILL
BE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES IN THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE AREA...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
BIG 592 DM EAST PAC UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WEATHER.
IT WILL PUSH CLOSER TO CA TODAY...THE PEAK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL DIMINISH SOME THU AND THEN SOME MORE FRIDAY AS A STORM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW AND PUSHES THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH.

OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A SFC HIGH OVER WILL PEAK TODAY...DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THEN SOME MORE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL
FINALLY TURN BACK ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY SIZABLE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT A FEW DAYS AGO
HAS TURNED OUT MUCH WEAKER. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS TODAY IN
THE MTNS THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE ERN VTA VLYS AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS THAT JUST REACH INTO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT JUST. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE VTA COAST
AND THE MALIBU STRIP. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE
ADVISORIES WILL END AT NOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CANYON
WINDS WED MORNING BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD BE BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAX TEMPS ARE THE BIG STORY. RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO A NICE JUMP IN TEMPS TODAY...FURTHER WARMING IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER HIGH PEAKS OVER THE AREA. TODAYS HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS...MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW SLOWLY
DECREASES SO WILL THE TEMPS AND BOTH THU AND FRI WILL BE COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. STILL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-MON)...
ALL EYES ON THE BIG PATTER SHIFT THAT WILL START SATURDAY AND WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL TERMS AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH CA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL SWING A TROF OVER THE STATE AT SOME TIME SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. QUITE CERTAIN THAT ALL OF THE SOUTHLAND IS GOING TO SEE
SOME RAIN. WHAT IS NOT CERTAIN IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL START...WHEN IT
WILL END AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL.

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PROMISING AGREEMENT EARLIER
THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE THE EC IS NOW SLOWER WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROF. THE
GFS BRINGS THE RAIN IN EARLIER THAN THE EC...ENDS THE RAIN EARLIER
AND GIVES THE AREA LESS RAIN IN GENERAL THAN THE SLOWER WETTER EC.
MDL ENSEMBLE RUNS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE EC SO PUSHED THE FORECAST A
LITTLE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE EC. IF THE EC VERIFIES ONLY THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAIN ON SUNDAY AND LA COUNTY WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. ACTUALLY NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT TOTALLY REMOVE RAIN CHCS FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER SINCE THE MDLS ARE NOW BOUNCING AROUND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TONIGHTS RUNS BRING THE RAIN ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS STORM COULD BE QUITE A SOAKER AND IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH IT DEVELOP.

KNOW SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPORTANT TRAVEL DAY AND HOPE FOR A
LESS WISHY WASHY FORECAST IN THE NEXT 36 OR 48 HOURS.

AMONG THE OTHER DETAILS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
EACH DAY WITH THE BIGGEST DROP ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BY SUNDAY. A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AND A LITTLE LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THE TROF. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES NEARER TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1030Z

THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT 25/0910Z WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREE CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW...CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LGT-MDT LLWS AND TURBULENCE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF AN
EASTERLY WIND OF 8 KNOTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

25/200 AM

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BEGINNING
SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AHEAD OF A STORM APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING
FROM ABOUT POINT MUGU TO SANTA MONICA WITH LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOT NEARSHORE BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. OTHERWISE...WEAK NORTHEAST
FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEAK ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS...TURNING WEAK ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A GENERAL WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

24/150 PM

THE GUSTY WINDS FROM TODAY WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT WITH THE WIND
SHIFT SOME AREAS THAT SAW GUSTY WINDS EARLIER THIS WEEK WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG. THIS INCLUDES THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND SANTA
MONICA/PACIFIC PALISADES. MEANWHILE...HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 6 AND 15
PERCENT WILL BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OVER SEVERAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS. RED FLAG DURATIONS (6 HOURS OR MORE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS)
HOWEVER WILL LIKELY ONLY BE MET WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE
STRONGEST...NAMELY THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AS
WELL AS THE VENTURA COUNTY AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEYS. THIS INCLUDES
THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND MALIBU FOOTHILLS WHERE THE THREAT IS
HIGHEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FREEZE WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 251128
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. THERE WILL
BE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES IN THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE AREA...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
BIG 592 DM EAST PAC UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WEATHER.
IT WILL PUSH CLOSER TO CA TODAY...THE PEAK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL DIMINISH SOME THU AND THEN SOME MORE FRIDAY AS A STORM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW AND PUSHES THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH.

OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A SFC HIGH OVER WILL PEAK TODAY...DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THEN SOME MORE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL
FINALLY TURN BACK ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY SIZABLE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT A FEW DAYS AGO
HAS TURNED OUT MUCH WEAKER. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS TODAY IN
THE MTNS THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE ERN VTA VLYS AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS THAT JUST REACH INTO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT JUST. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE VTA COAST
AND THE MALIBU STRIP. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE
ADVISORIES WILL END AT NOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CANYON
WINDS WED MORNING BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD BE BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAX TEMPS ARE THE BIG STORY. RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO A NICE JUMP IN TEMPS TODAY...FURTHER WARMING IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER HIGH PEAKS OVER THE AREA. TODAYS HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS...MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW SLOWLY
DECREASES SO WILL THE TEMPS AND BOTH THU AND FRI WILL BE COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. STILL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-MON)...
ALL EYES ON THE BIG PATTER SHIFT THAT WILL START SATURDAY AND WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL TERMS AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH CA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL SWING A TROF OVER THE STATE AT SOME TIME SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. QUITE CERTAIN THAT ALL OF THE SOUTHLAND IS GOING TO SEE
SOME RAIN. WHAT IS NOT CERTAIN IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL START...WHEN IT
WILL END AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL.

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PROMISING AGREEMENT EARLIER
THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE THE EC IS NOW SLOWER WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROF. THE
GFS BRINGS THE RAIN IN EARLIER THAN THE EC...ENDS THE RAIN EARLIER
AND GIVES THE AREA LESS RAIN IN GENERAL THAN THE SLOWER WETTER EC.
MDL ENSEMBLE RUNS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE EC SO PUSHED THE FORECAST A
LITTLE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE EC. IF THE EC VERIFIES ONLY THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAIN ON SUNDAY AND LA COUNTY WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. ACTUALLY NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT TOTALLY REMOVE RAIN CHCS FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER SINCE THE MDLS ARE NOW BOUNCING AROUND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TONIGHTS RUNS BRING THE RAIN ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS STORM COULD BE QUITE A SOAKER AND IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH IT DEVELOP.

KNOW SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPORTANT TRAVEL DAY AND HOPE FOR A
LESS WISHY WASHY FORECAST IN THE NEXT 36 OR 48 HOURS.

AMONG THE OTHER DETAILS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
EACH DAY WITH THE BIGGEST DROP ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BY SUNDAY. A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AND A LITTLE LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THE TROF. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES NEARER TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1030Z

THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT 25/0910Z WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREE CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW...CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LGT-MDT LLWS AND TURBULENCE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF AN
EASTERLY WIND OF 8 KNOTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

25/200 AM

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BEGINNING
SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AHEAD OF A STORM APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING
FROM ABOUT POINT MUGU TO SANTA MONICA WITH LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOT NEARSHORE BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. OTHERWISE...WEAK NORTHEAST
FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEAK ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS...TURNING WEAK ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A GENERAL WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

24/150 PM

THE GUSTY WINDS FROM TODAY WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT WITH THE WIND
SHIFT SOME AREAS THAT SAW GUSTY WINDS EARLIER THIS WEEK WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG. THIS INCLUDES THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND SANTA
MONICA/PACIFIC PALISADES. MEANWHILE...HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 6 AND 15
PERCENT WILL BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OVER SEVERAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS. RED FLAG DURATIONS (6 HOURS OR MORE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS)
HOWEVER WILL LIKELY ONLY BE MET WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE
STRONGEST...NAMELY THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AS
WELL AS THE VENTURA COUNTY AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEYS. THIS INCLUDES
THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND MALIBU FOOTHILLS WHERE THE THREAT IS
HIGHEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FREEZE WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 250603
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. THERE WILL
BE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THEN SHIFTS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
RAIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU) EVENING UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES WERE UP 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN MOST COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS TODAY INCLUDING THE CENTRAL COAST WHICH HAD TEMPS AS HIGH AS
8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE ONLY COOLER AREAS TODAY WERE
THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE TEMPS WERE DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS FAR AS THE WINDS GO...WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA
RANGE THIS EVENING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MALIBU
HILLS AND BONEY MOUNTAIN HAVE SEEN THE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN THIS
EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 35 MPH AND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND
55 MPH. WINDS WERE NOT QUITE AS STRONG ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY MTNS
YET...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
NOT BE GETTING ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WITH A WEAK THERMAL
GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD JUST BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BARELY SUPPORT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND BELOW WIND PRONE
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AS FOR THE WIND PRONE COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN LEO
CARRILLO AND MALIBU...THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. BUT
OVERALL...GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLATED FOR THESE AREAS OF
THE LA COUNTY COAST. THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH BY MORNING WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION AND CONTINUED WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE LATEST
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION BELOW. LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
THAT SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.


***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A STRONG 591 DM HIGH WAS LOCATED 400 MILES WEST OF SAN
DIEGO...LEAVING SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA UNDER A STRONG DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BUT WEAKEN A
BIT BY WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WELL OUT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.

TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE...ESPECIALLY FOR COAST AND VALLEY SITES. THE COLDER AIR
ADVECTION HAS CEASED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR REGION WHICH
IS WHY MOST OF THE WINDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. THERE HAVE BEEN LOCAL GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...BUT THE MALIBU HILLS CONTINUED TO BLOW PRETTY GOOD THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. WILL BE ADDING THE LA/VTU
COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATER THIS EVENING...THEN THE SANTA CLARITA AND
VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL...WIND
ADVISORIES WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. NOT MUCH UPPER LVL SUPPORT AND
NO THERMAL COOLING PUNCH ACROSS THE HIGH DESERT TO STRENGTHEN THE
WINDS MUCH. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH FOR THE VENTURA
COUNTY COAST TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL AS THE LA COUNTY COAST FROM
MALIBU TO LEO CARRILLO BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE SHIFTING
FARTHER SOUTH CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL
CAUSE STRONGER WINDS FOR THE COUNTIES HANDLED BY THE SAN DIEGO NWS
OFFICE. EXPECT SIMILAR WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND
ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...AND CONTINUED WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WED WITH
WARMEST TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...AND
POSSIBLY THE UPPER 80S FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS WED/THU. BY THURSDAY...THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN EARLIER
IN THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME COOLING TO THE CENTRAL COAST
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL TO MOST BEACH AREAS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A GOOD 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON THURSDAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING AS A PRETTY POTENT UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH THE
POSSIBLE RETURN OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BOTH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BOTH MODELS WERE
PICKING UP ON GOOD SOUTHERN FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS A GOOD
SIGN FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA
YNEZ...VENTURA AND LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS START OUT AROUND
6000 TO 6500 FT...BUT LOWER TO AROUND 4500 FT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY. STILL TOO EARLY...BUT WITH THE BUSY HOLIDAY
TRAVEL NEXT WEEKEND...IT DOES NOT HURT TO GET THE WORD OUT. AS THIS
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM BEGINS TO CLOSE IN...THERE WILL BE MORE
DETAILS TO SHARE.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/0545Z

THERE IS NO INVERSION AT KLAX AT 25/0530Z

HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 06Z TAFS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL
BE SOME UDDF AND LGT-OCNL MODERATE LLWS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS
THROUGH 18Z TUE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AN 8 KT EAST WIND COMPONENT 11Z-16Z.

.KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF AND CAVU CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...24/800 PM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK...EXCEPT THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS
FROM NEAR PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WHERE LOCAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
KT OR STRONGER ARE OCCURRING. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
BY LATER THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...STRONGEST OVER THE NEAR SHORE AREAS
MENTIONED. MODERATE CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ON TUESDAY.
BUILDING SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING BUILDING WESTERLY SWELL TO THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THE SWELL MAY BUILD TO 10 FEET OR ABOVE BY MONDAY AND
REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS
THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...24/150 PM.
THE GUSTY WINDS FROM TODAY WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT WITH THE WIND
SHIFT SOME AREAS THAT SAW GUSTY WINDS EARLIER THIS WEEK WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG. THIS INCLUDES THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND SANTA
MONICA/PACIFIC PALISADES. MEANWHILE...HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 6 AND 15
PERCENT WILL BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OVER SEVERAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS. RED FLAG DURATIONS (6 HOURS OR MORE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS)
HOWEVER WILL LIKELY ONLY BE MET WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE
STRONGEST...NAMELY THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AS
WELL AS THE VENTURA COUNTY AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEYS. THIS INCLUDES
THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND MALIBU FOOTHILLS WHERE THE THREAT IS
HIGHEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD
FIRE...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 250603
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. THERE WILL
BE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THEN SHIFTS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
RAIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU) EVENING UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES WERE UP 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN MOST COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS TODAY INCLUDING THE CENTRAL COAST WHICH HAD TEMPS AS HIGH AS
8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE ONLY COOLER AREAS TODAY WERE
THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE TEMPS WERE DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS FAR AS THE WINDS GO...WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA
RANGE THIS EVENING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MALIBU
HILLS AND BONEY MOUNTAIN HAVE SEEN THE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN THIS
EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 35 MPH AND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND
55 MPH. WINDS WERE NOT QUITE AS STRONG ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY MTNS
YET...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
NOT BE GETTING ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WITH A WEAK THERMAL
GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD JUST BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BARELY SUPPORT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND BELOW WIND PRONE
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AS FOR THE WIND PRONE COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN LEO
CARRILLO AND MALIBU...THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. BUT
OVERALL...GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLATED FOR THESE AREAS OF
THE LA COUNTY COAST. THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH BY MORNING WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION AND CONTINUED WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE LATEST
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION BELOW. LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
THAT SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.


***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A STRONG 591 DM HIGH WAS LOCATED 400 MILES WEST OF SAN
DIEGO...LEAVING SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA UNDER A STRONG DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BUT WEAKEN A
BIT BY WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WELL OUT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.

TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE...ESPECIALLY FOR COAST AND VALLEY SITES. THE COLDER AIR
ADVECTION HAS CEASED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR REGION WHICH
IS WHY MOST OF THE WINDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. THERE HAVE BEEN LOCAL GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...BUT THE MALIBU HILLS CONTINUED TO BLOW PRETTY GOOD THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. WILL BE ADDING THE LA/VTU
COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATER THIS EVENING...THEN THE SANTA CLARITA AND
VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL...WIND
ADVISORIES WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. NOT MUCH UPPER LVL SUPPORT AND
NO THERMAL COOLING PUNCH ACROSS THE HIGH DESERT TO STRENGTHEN THE
WINDS MUCH. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH FOR THE VENTURA
COUNTY COAST TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL AS THE LA COUNTY COAST FROM
MALIBU TO LEO CARRILLO BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE SHIFTING
FARTHER SOUTH CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL
CAUSE STRONGER WINDS FOR THE COUNTIES HANDLED BY THE SAN DIEGO NWS
OFFICE. EXPECT SIMILAR WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND
ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...AND CONTINUED WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WED WITH
WARMEST TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...AND
POSSIBLY THE UPPER 80S FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS WED/THU. BY THURSDAY...THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN EARLIER
IN THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME COOLING TO THE CENTRAL COAST
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL TO MOST BEACH AREAS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A GOOD 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON THURSDAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING AS A PRETTY POTENT UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH THE
POSSIBLE RETURN OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BOTH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BOTH MODELS WERE
PICKING UP ON GOOD SOUTHERN FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS A GOOD
SIGN FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA
YNEZ...VENTURA AND LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS START OUT AROUND
6000 TO 6500 FT...BUT LOWER TO AROUND 4500 FT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY. STILL TOO EARLY...BUT WITH THE BUSY HOLIDAY
TRAVEL NEXT WEEKEND...IT DOES NOT HURT TO GET THE WORD OUT. AS THIS
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM BEGINS TO CLOSE IN...THERE WILL BE MORE
DETAILS TO SHARE.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/0545Z

THERE IS NO INVERSION AT KLAX AT 25/0530Z

HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 06Z TAFS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL
BE SOME UDDF AND LGT-OCNL MODERATE LLWS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS
THROUGH 18Z TUE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AN 8 KT EAST WIND COMPONENT 11Z-16Z.

.KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF AND CAVU CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...24/800 PM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK...EXCEPT THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS
FROM NEAR PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WHERE LOCAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
KT OR STRONGER ARE OCCURRING. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
BY LATER THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...STRONGEST OVER THE NEAR SHORE AREAS
MENTIONED. MODERATE CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ON TUESDAY.
BUILDING SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING BUILDING WESTERLY SWELL TO THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THE SWELL MAY BUILD TO 10 FEET OR ABOVE BY MONDAY AND
REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS
THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...24/150 PM.
THE GUSTY WINDS FROM TODAY WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT WITH THE WIND
SHIFT SOME AREAS THAT SAW GUSTY WINDS EARLIER THIS WEEK WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG. THIS INCLUDES THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND SANTA
MONICA/PACIFIC PALISADES. MEANWHILE...HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 6 AND 15
PERCENT WILL BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OVER SEVERAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS. RED FLAG DURATIONS (6 HOURS OR MORE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS)
HOWEVER WILL LIKELY ONLY BE MET WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE
STRONGEST...NAMELY THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AS
WELL AS THE VENTURA COUNTY AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEYS. THIS INCLUDES
THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND MALIBU FOOTHILLS WHERE THE THREAT IS
HIGHEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD
FIRE...KITTELL

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