Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KLSX 030824
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
324 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AT THIS HOUR. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH TODAY AND BEGIN TO REALIGN ITSELF UNDER THE
NORTHWESTERLYUPPER FLOW ALOFT SO THAT IT WILL EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY TO PROVIDE ENHANCED ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG IT TO
SUPPORT GOING SLIGHT CHANCES. MLCAPES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN
CWA WHERE MIXING WILL BE ABOVE 850MB.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE MIXING WILL BE ABOVE 850MB.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
GREATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.  BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TWO
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. THIS JUSTIFIES THE GOING HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

WAVY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. HEIGHTS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
20C. THIS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

I`VE INCLUDED A SHORT TEMPO GROUP AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR KCOU DUE TO WEAKENING CLUSTER OF STORMS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE I EXPECT A DRY NIGHT
WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS
(20-30% PROBABILITY) WITH THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE LOW COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION AND TERMINAL
IMPACTS, I HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS (20-30% PROBABILITY) WITH
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOW COVERAGE AND
UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION AND TERMINAL IMPACTS, I HAVE OPTED TO
NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN THE KSTL TAF AT THIS TIME.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 030456
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1156 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CU FIELD IS GETTING A LITTLE MORE AGITATED ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME PULSE STORMS...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ITS HOT OUTSIDE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
HEAT INDICES CLOSING IN ON THE CENTURY MARK IN SOME LOCALS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. LITTLE OR NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MEAGER SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL KEEPS POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND NOT MENTIONABLE TOMORROW MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE STALLED FRONT BUT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD BUT ANTICIPATE
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

I`VE INCLUDED A SHORT TEMPO GROUP AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR KCOU DUE TO WEAKENING CLUSTER OF STORMS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE I EXPECT A DRY NIGHT
WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS
(20-30% PROBABILITY) WITH THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE LOW COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION AND TERMINAL
IMPACTS, I HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS (20-30% PROBABILITY) WITH
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOW COVERAGE AND
UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION AND TERMINAL IMPACTS, I HAVE OPTED TO
NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN THE KSTL TAF AT THIS TIME.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 030456
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1156 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CU FIELD IS GETTING A LITTLE MORE AGITATED ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME PULSE STORMS...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ITS HOT OUTSIDE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
HEAT INDICES CLOSING IN ON THE CENTURY MARK IN SOME LOCALS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. LITTLE OR NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MEAGER SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL KEEPS POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND NOT MENTIONABLE TOMORROW MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE STALLED FRONT BUT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD BUT ANTICIPATE
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

I`VE INCLUDED A SHORT TEMPO GROUP AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR KCOU DUE TO WEAKENING CLUSTER OF STORMS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE I EXPECT A DRY NIGHT
WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS
(20-30% PROBABILITY) WITH THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE LOW COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION AND TERMINAL
IMPACTS, I HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS (20-30% PROBABILITY) WITH
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOW COVERAGE AND
UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION AND TERMINAL IMPACTS, I HAVE OPTED TO
NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN THE KSTL TAF AT THIS TIME.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 022336
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
636 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CU FIELD IS GETTING A LITTLE MORE AGITATED ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME PULSE STORMS...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ITS HOT OUTSIDE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
HEAT INDICES CLOSING IN ON THE CENTURY MARK IN SOME LOCALS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. LITTLE OR NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MEAGER SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL KEEPS POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND NOT MENTIONABLE TOMORROW MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE STALLED FRONT BUT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD BUT ANTICIPATE
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS FORMED ALONG A COLD FRONT IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. BELIEVE WEAKENING
SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND A DECREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD WEAKEN ACTIVITY SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EVENING IN CASE IT MAKES IT TO KUIN. IF IT DOES HOLD
TOGETHER...BEST GUESS ON TIMING OF THESE STORMS THAT COULD AFFECT
KUIN WOULD BE 0400 TO 0600 UTC. OTHERWISE...FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY
MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TOWARD KCOU AND THE METRO TAF SITES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. RELIED ON THE GFS IN TERMS OF BOTH FRONTAL TIMING AND
PLACEMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DO AGREE THAT FRONT LIKELY WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. CONSEQUENTLY...BELIEVE
BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY BE
SOUTH OF KCOU AND METRO TAF SITES BUT DID LEAVE A VC GROUP IN
THERE FOR NOW AND HOPEFULLY SEE A BIT MORE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT NORTH OF
LAMBERT FIELD. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINAL LATE
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA A LA
GFS. HAVE CONCERNS THAT WHAT LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOES FORM
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTH OF AREA BUT LEFT A VC GROUP IN FOR
NOW FOR CONTINUITY SAKE AND WILL EVALUATE 0000 UTC MODEL GUDANCE
TO SEE IF THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO.

GOSSELIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     77  90  74  87 /  20  20  40  30
QUINCY          68  84  65  82 /  20  10  30  30
COLUMBIA        69  89  70  86 /  10  20  20  40
JEFFERSON CITY  71  91  71  87 /  10  20  20  30
SALEM           71  88  67  85 /  20  20  20  30
FARMINGTON      72  91  72  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 022336
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
636 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CU FIELD IS GETTING A LITTLE MORE AGITATED ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME PULSE STORMS...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ITS HOT OUTSIDE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
HEAT INDICES CLOSING IN ON THE CENTURY MARK IN SOME LOCALS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. LITTLE OR NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MEAGER SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL KEEPS POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND NOT MENTIONABLE TOMORROW MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE STALLED FRONT BUT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD BUT ANTICIPATE
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS FORMED ALONG A COLD FRONT IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. BELIEVE WEAKENING
SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND A DECREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD WEAKEN ACTIVITY SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EVENING IN CASE IT MAKES IT TO KUIN. IF IT DOES HOLD
TOGETHER...BEST GUESS ON TIMING OF THESE STORMS THAT COULD AFFECT
KUIN WOULD BE 0400 TO 0600 UTC. OTHERWISE...FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY
MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TOWARD KCOU AND THE METRO TAF SITES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. RELIED ON THE GFS IN TERMS OF BOTH FRONTAL TIMING AND
PLACEMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DO AGREE THAT FRONT LIKELY WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. CONSEQUENTLY...BELIEVE
BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY BE
SOUTH OF KCOU AND METRO TAF SITES BUT DID LEAVE A VC GROUP IN
THERE FOR NOW AND HOPEFULLY SEE A BIT MORE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT NORTH OF
LAMBERT FIELD. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINAL LATE
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA A LA
GFS. HAVE CONCERNS THAT WHAT LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOES FORM
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTH OF AREA BUT LEFT A VC GROUP IN FOR
NOW FOR CONTINUITY SAKE AND WILL EVALUATE 0000 UTC MODEL GUDANCE
TO SEE IF THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO.

GOSSELIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     77  90  74  87 /  20  20  40  30
QUINCY          68  84  65  82 /  20  10  30  30
COLUMBIA        69  89  70  86 /  10  20  20  40
JEFFERSON CITY  71  91  71  87 /  10  20  20  30
SALEM           71  88  67  85 /  20  20  20  30
FARMINGTON      72  91  72  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 021929
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
229 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CU FIELD IS GETTING A LITTLE MORE AGITATED ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME PULSE STORMS...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ITS HOT OUTSIDE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
HEAT INDICES CLOSING IN ON THE CENTURY MARK IN SOME LOCALS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. LITTLE OR NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MEAGER SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL KEEPS POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND NOT MENTIONABLE TOMORROW MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE STALLED FRONT BUT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD BUT ANTICIPATE
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KUIN, KCOU: WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
UNTIL AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT, THEN
TURN NORTHERLY AFTER FROPA OCCURS (17-21Z AT KCOU AND 10-14Z AT
KUIN). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER PCPN CHANCES ARE HIGHER TOMORROW AFTN AT KCOU INVOF THE
COLD FRONT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AFTER 03/06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WESTERLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY AFTER FROPA OCCURS BETWEEN 17-21Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER PCPN CHANCES
ARE HIGHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON INVOF THE COLD FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     77  90  74  87 /  20  20  40  30
QUINCY          68  84  65  82 /  20  10  30  30
COLUMBIA        69  89  70  86 /  10  20  20  40
JEFFERSON CITY  71  91  71  87 /  10  20  20  30
SALEM           71  88  67  85 /  20  20  20  30
FARMINGTON      72  91  72  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 021929
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
229 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CU FIELD IS GETTING A LITTLE MORE AGITATED ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME PULSE STORMS...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ITS HOT OUTSIDE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
HEAT INDICES CLOSING IN ON THE CENTURY MARK IN SOME LOCALS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. LITTLE OR NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MEAGER SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL KEEPS POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND NOT MENTIONABLE TOMORROW MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE STALLED FRONT BUT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD BUT ANTICIPATE
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KUIN, KCOU: WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
UNTIL AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT, THEN
TURN NORTHERLY AFTER FROPA OCCURS (17-21Z AT KCOU AND 10-14Z AT
KUIN). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER PCPN CHANCES ARE HIGHER TOMORROW AFTN AT KCOU INVOF THE
COLD FRONT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AFTER 03/06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WESTERLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY AFTER FROPA OCCURS BETWEEN 17-21Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER PCPN CHANCES
ARE HIGHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON INVOF THE COLD FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     77  90  74  87 /  20  20  40  30
QUINCY          68  84  65  82 /  20  10  30  30
COLUMBIA        69  89  70  86 /  10  20  20  40
JEFFERSON CITY  71  91  71  87 /  10  20  20  30
SALEM           71  88  67  85 /  20  20  20  30
FARMINGTON      72  91  72  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 021748
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1248 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
IOWA IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A
30KT LOW LEVEL JET.  RAP SHOWS THAT THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MIXING DOWN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE AREA AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT WILL REMAINED STALLED MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVER THE STALLED FRONT DURING THIS PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY PROVIDING A DRY DAY.  WENT
WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KUIN, KCOU: WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
UNTIL AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT, THEN
TURN NORTHERLY AFTER FROPA OCCURS (17-21Z AT KCOU AND 10-14Z AT
KUIN). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER PCPN CHANCES ARE HIGHER TOMORROW AFTN AT KCOU INVOF THE
COLD FRONT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AFTER 03/06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WESTERLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY AFTER FROPA OCCURS BETWEEN 17-21Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER PCPN CHANCES
ARE HIGHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON INVOF THE COLD FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 021748
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1248 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
IOWA IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A
30KT LOW LEVEL JET.  RAP SHOWS THAT THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MIXING DOWN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE AREA AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT WILL REMAINED STALLED MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVER THE STALLED FRONT DURING THIS PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY PROVIDING A DRY DAY.  WENT
WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KUIN, KCOU: WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
UNTIL AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT, THEN
TURN NORTHERLY AFTER FROPA OCCURS (17-21Z AT KCOU AND 10-14Z AT
KUIN). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER PCPN CHANCES ARE HIGHER TOMORROW AFTN AT KCOU INVOF THE
COLD FRONT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AFTER 03/06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WESTERLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY AFTER FROPA OCCURS BETWEEN 17-21Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER PCPN CHANCES
ARE HIGHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON INVOF THE COLD FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 021748
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1248 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
IOWA IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A
30KT LOW LEVEL JET.  RAP SHOWS THAT THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MIXING DOWN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE AREA AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT WILL REMAINED STALLED MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVER THE STALLED FRONT DURING THIS PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY PROVIDING A DRY DAY.  WENT
WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KUIN, KCOU: WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
UNTIL AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT, THEN
TURN NORTHERLY AFTER FROPA OCCURS (17-21Z AT KCOU AND 10-14Z AT
KUIN). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER PCPN CHANCES ARE HIGHER TOMORROW AFTN AT KCOU INVOF THE
COLD FRONT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AFTER 03/06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WESTERLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY AFTER FROPA OCCURS BETWEEN 17-21Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER PCPN CHANCES
ARE HIGHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON INVOF THE COLD FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 021123
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
623 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
IOWA IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A
30KT LOW LEVEL JET.  RAP SHOWS THAT THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MIXING DOWN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE AREA AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT WILL REMAINED STALLED MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVER THE STALLED FRONT DURING THIS PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY PROVIDING A DRY DAY.  WENT
WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TSRA OVER N CENTRAL MO ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT UIN...BUT CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT AND WILL BE IN THE REGION. OTHERWISE, TSRA MAY ALSO
IMPACT UIN THIS EVENING AS A CDFNT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HOWEVER...TSRA SHUD DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH THE UIN REGION AND
WILL THEREFORE KEEP OUT OF TAF ATTM. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BECOME
SWLY THIS MORNING AND WLY AS THE FNT APPROACHES.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOD TO SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
OZARKS...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS THE STL/SUS/CPS REGION. CHANCES OF
DEVELOPMENT AND IMPACTING THESE TERMINALS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF ATTM.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 021123
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
623 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
IOWA IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A
30KT LOW LEVEL JET.  RAP SHOWS THAT THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MIXING DOWN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE AREA AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT WILL REMAINED STALLED MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVER THE STALLED FRONT DURING THIS PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY PROVIDING A DRY DAY.  WENT
WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TSRA OVER N CENTRAL MO ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT UIN...BUT CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT AND WILL BE IN THE REGION. OTHERWISE, TSRA MAY ALSO
IMPACT UIN THIS EVENING AS A CDFNT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HOWEVER...TSRA SHUD DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH THE UIN REGION AND
WILL THEREFORE KEEP OUT OF TAF ATTM. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BECOME
SWLY THIS MORNING AND WLY AS THE FNT APPROACHES.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOD TO SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
OZARKS...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS THE STL/SUS/CPS REGION. CHANCES OF
DEVELOPMENT AND IMPACTING THESE TERMINALS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF ATTM.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 021123
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
623 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
IOWA IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A
30KT LOW LEVEL JET.  RAP SHOWS THAT THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MIXING DOWN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE AREA AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT WILL REMAINED STALLED MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVER THE STALLED FRONT DURING THIS PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY PROVIDING A DRY DAY.  WENT
WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TSRA OVER N CENTRAL MO ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT UIN...BUT CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT AND WILL BE IN THE REGION. OTHERWISE, TSRA MAY ALSO
IMPACT UIN THIS EVENING AS A CDFNT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HOWEVER...TSRA SHUD DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH THE UIN REGION AND
WILL THEREFORE KEEP OUT OF TAF ATTM. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BECOME
SWLY THIS MORNING AND WLY AS THE FNT APPROACHES.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOD TO SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
OZARKS...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS THE STL/SUS/CPS REGION. CHANCES OF
DEVELOPMENT AND IMPACTING THESE TERMINALS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF ATTM.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 021123
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
623 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
IOWA IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A
30KT LOW LEVEL JET.  RAP SHOWS THAT THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MIXING DOWN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE AREA AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT WILL REMAINED STALLED MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVER THE STALLED FRONT DURING THIS PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY PROVIDING A DRY DAY.  WENT
WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TSRA OVER N CENTRAL MO ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT UIN...BUT CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT AND WILL BE IN THE REGION. OTHERWISE, TSRA MAY ALSO
IMPACT UIN THIS EVENING AS A CDFNT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HOWEVER...TSRA SHUD DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH THE UIN REGION AND
WILL THEREFORE KEEP OUT OF TAF ATTM. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BECOME
SWLY THIS MORNING AND WLY AS THE FNT APPROACHES.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOD TO SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
OZARKS...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS THE STL/SUS/CPS REGION. CHANCES OF
DEVELOPMENT AND IMPACTING THESE TERMINALS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF ATTM.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 021001
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
501 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
IOWA IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A
30KT LOW LEVEL JET.  RAP SHOWS THAT THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MIXING DOWN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE AREA AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT WILL REMAINED STALLED MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVER THE STALLED FRONT DURING THIS PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY PROVIDING A DRY DAY.  WENT
WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STILL EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
OVER CENTRAL IOWA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING. QUINCY
MAY BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE AND MAINTAINED A VC GROUP FOR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW SO KEPT
REMAINING SITES DRY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AND GUST
AT KCOU AND KUIN AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BUT WILL RELAX
A BIT WITH APPROACH OF NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
DO NOT LOOK TOO HIGH WITH IT AND PASSAGE OF SAID ACTUAL FRONT
LOOKS TO BE ACTUALLY ON MONDAY MORNING.

GOSSELIN

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 020426
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1126 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 852 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MO FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING
HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST
HOUR. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOSS OF HEATING/DECREASING
INSTABILITY AND ALSO WITH DIMINISHED CONVERGENCE ON FADING SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THE RESIDUAL SHOWERS THAT MANAGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
MO HAVE ALSO DISSIPATED AND THIS DOWNWARD TREND IS EXPECTED WITH
WHAT LITTLE ACTIVITY REMAINS IN NC MO. STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT/PREDAWN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VICINITY OF NE MO/SE IA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VEERING AND
STRENGTHENING LLJ.

GLASS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN INVOF A BOUNDARY
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY CAPPED,
THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE PERCOLATING AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.

H85 LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IA IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT A NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SH/TS REMNANTS COULD
DROP FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO EXTEND POPS ATTM.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. I CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM FIRST THING IN THE MORNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD RESIDE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING INTERSTATE 70
BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
ORIENTATED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO THE BOOTHEEL BY THE EVENING.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET TO
PROVIDE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS CERTAINLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF THAN OTHER MODELS AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN`T DISCOUNT ITS
SOLUTION GIVEN PATTERN AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S NEXT SATURDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STILL EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
OVER CENTRAL IOWA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING. QUINCY
MAY BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE AND MAINTAINED A VC GROUP FOR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW SO KEPT
REMAINING SITES DRY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AND GUST
AT KCOU AND KUIN AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BUT WILL RELAX
A BIT WITH APPROACH OF NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
DO NOT LOOK TOO HIGH WITH IT AND PASSAGE OF SAID ACTUAL FRONT
LOOKS TO BE ACTUALLY ON MONDAY MORNING.

GOSSELIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     75  95  79  89 /  10  10  20  10
QUINCY          70  90  69  86 /  30  20  30  10
COLUMBIA        70  93  71  91 /  20  10  20  10
JEFFERSON CITY  69  94  72  93 /  20   5  20  10
SALEM           68  91  72  88 /  10  10  20  10
FARMINGTON      67  91  72  90 /  10   5  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 020426
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1126 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 852 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MO FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING
HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST
HOUR. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOSS OF HEATING/DECREASING
INSTABILITY AND ALSO WITH DIMINISHED CONVERGENCE ON FADING SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THE RESIDUAL SHOWERS THAT MANAGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
MO HAVE ALSO DISSIPATED AND THIS DOWNWARD TREND IS EXPECTED WITH
WHAT LITTLE ACTIVITY REMAINS IN NC MO. STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT/PREDAWN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VICINITY OF NE MO/SE IA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VEERING AND
STRENGTHENING LLJ.

GLASS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN INVOF A BOUNDARY
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY CAPPED,
THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE PERCOLATING AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.

H85 LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IA IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT A NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SH/TS REMNANTS COULD
DROP FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO EXTEND POPS ATTM.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. I CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM FIRST THING IN THE MORNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD RESIDE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING INTERSTATE 70
BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
ORIENTATED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO THE BOOTHEEL BY THE EVENING.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET TO
PROVIDE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS CERTAINLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF THAN OTHER MODELS AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN`T DISCOUNT ITS
SOLUTION GIVEN PATTERN AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S NEXT SATURDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STILL EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
OVER CENTRAL IOWA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING. QUINCY
MAY BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE AND MAINTAINED A VC GROUP FOR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW SO KEPT
REMAINING SITES DRY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AND GUST
AT KCOU AND KUIN AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BUT WILL RELAX
A BIT WITH APPROACH OF NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
DO NOT LOOK TOO HIGH WITH IT AND PASSAGE OF SAID ACTUAL FRONT
LOOKS TO BE ACTUALLY ON MONDAY MORNING.

GOSSELIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     75  95  79  89 /  10  10  20  10
QUINCY          70  90  69  86 /  30  20  30  10
COLUMBIA        70  93  71  91 /  20  10  20  10
JEFFERSON CITY  69  94  72  93 /  20   5  20  10
SALEM           68  91  72  88 /  10  10  20  10
FARMINGTON      67  91  72  90 /  10   5  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 020426
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1126 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 852 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MO FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING
HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST
HOUR. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOSS OF HEATING/DECREASING
INSTABILITY AND ALSO WITH DIMINISHED CONVERGENCE ON FADING SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THE RESIDUAL SHOWERS THAT MANAGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
MO HAVE ALSO DISSIPATED AND THIS DOWNWARD TREND IS EXPECTED WITH
WHAT LITTLE ACTIVITY REMAINS IN NC MO. STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT/PREDAWN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VICINITY OF NE MO/SE IA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VEERING AND
STRENGTHENING LLJ.

GLASS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN INVOF A BOUNDARY
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY CAPPED,
THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE PERCOLATING AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.

H85 LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IA IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT A NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SH/TS REMNANTS COULD
DROP FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO EXTEND POPS ATTM.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. I CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM FIRST THING IN THE MORNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD RESIDE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING INTERSTATE 70
BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
ORIENTATED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO THE BOOTHEEL BY THE EVENING.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET TO
PROVIDE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS CERTAINLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF THAN OTHER MODELS AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN`T DISCOUNT ITS
SOLUTION GIVEN PATTERN AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S NEXT SATURDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STILL EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
OVER CENTRAL IOWA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING. QUINCY
MAY BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE AND MAINTAINED A VC GROUP FOR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW SO KEPT
REMAINING SITES DRY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AND GUST
AT KCOU AND KUIN AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BUT WILL RELAX
A BIT WITH APPROACH OF NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
DO NOT LOOK TOO HIGH WITH IT AND PASSAGE OF SAID ACTUAL FRONT
LOOKS TO BE ACTUALLY ON MONDAY MORNING.

GOSSELIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     75  95  79  89 /  10  10  20  10
QUINCY          70  90  69  86 /  30  20  30  10
COLUMBIA        70  93  71  91 /  20  10  20  10
JEFFERSON CITY  69  94  72  93 /  20   5  20  10
SALEM           68  91  72  88 /  10  10  20  10
FARMINGTON      67  91  72  90 /  10   5  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 020202
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
902 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 852 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MO FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING
HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST
HOUR. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOSS OF HEATING/DECREASING
INSTABILITY AND ALSO WITH DIMINISHED CONVERGENCE ON FADING SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THE RESIDUAL SHOWERS THAT MANAGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
MO HAVE ALSO DISSIPATED AND THIS DOWNWARD TREND IS EXPECTED WITH
WHAT LITTLE ACTIVITY REMAINS IN NC MO. STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT/PREDAWN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VICINITY OF NE MO/SE IA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VEERING AND
STRENGTHENING LLJ.

GLASS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN INVOF A BOUNDARY
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY CAPPED,
THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE PERCOLATING AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.

H85 LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IA IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT A NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SH/TS REMNANTS COULD
DROP FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO EXTEND POPS ATTM.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. I CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM FIRST THING IN THE MORNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD RESIDE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING INTERSTATE 70
BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
ORIENTATED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO THE BOOTHEEL BY THE EVENING.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET TO
PROVIDE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS CERTAINLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF THAN OTHER MODELS AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN`T DISCOUNT ITS
SOLUTION GIVEN PATTERN AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S NEXT SATURDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS WILL BE ON CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING TERMINALS. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER IS STILL
ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH STORMS JUST WEST OF KCOU
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A COMPLEX OF STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT AND MAY
AFFECT KUIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS WILL BE ON CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE TERMINAL. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH A COMPLEX OF STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT. THOSE
STORMS MAY PUT DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH COULD TRY AND FIRE
UP A FEW ISOLATED STORMS NEAR KSTL LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EALY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


GOSSELIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     75  95  79  89 /  10  10  20  10
QUINCY          70  90  69  86 /  50  20  30  10
COLUMBIA        70  93  71  91 /  30  10  20  10
JEFFERSON CITY  69  94  72  93 /  30   5  20  10
SALEM           68  91  72  88 /  10  10  20  10
FARMINGTON      67  91  72  90 /  20   5  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 020202
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
902 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 852 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MO FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING
HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST
HOUR. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOSS OF HEATING/DECREASING
INSTABILITY AND ALSO WITH DIMINISHED CONVERGENCE ON FADING SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THE RESIDUAL SHOWERS THAT MANAGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
MO HAVE ALSO DISSIPATED AND THIS DOWNWARD TREND IS EXPECTED WITH
WHAT LITTLE ACTIVITY REMAINS IN NC MO. STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT/PREDAWN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VICINITY OF NE MO/SE IA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VEERING AND
STRENGTHENING LLJ.

GLASS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN INVOF A BOUNDARY
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY CAPPED,
THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE PERCOLATING AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.

H85 LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IA IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT A NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SH/TS REMNANTS COULD
DROP FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO EXTEND POPS ATTM.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. I CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM FIRST THING IN THE MORNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD RESIDE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING INTERSTATE 70
BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
ORIENTATED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO THE BOOTHEEL BY THE EVENING.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET TO
PROVIDE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS CERTAINLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF THAN OTHER MODELS AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN`T DISCOUNT ITS
SOLUTION GIVEN PATTERN AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S NEXT SATURDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS WILL BE ON CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING TERMINALS. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER IS STILL
ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH STORMS JUST WEST OF KCOU
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A COMPLEX OF STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT AND MAY
AFFECT KUIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS WILL BE ON CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE TERMINAL. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH A COMPLEX OF STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT. THOSE
STORMS MAY PUT DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH COULD TRY AND FIRE
UP A FEW ISOLATED STORMS NEAR KSTL LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EALY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


GOSSELIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     75  95  79  89 /  10  10  20  10
QUINCY          70  90  69  86 /  50  20  30  10
COLUMBIA        70  93  71  91 /  30  10  20  10
JEFFERSON CITY  69  94  72  93 /  30   5  20  10
SALEM           68  91  72  88 /  10  10  20  10
FARMINGTON      67  91  72  90 /  20   5  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 012330
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
630 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN INVOF A BOUNDARY
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY CAPPED,
THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE PERCOLATING AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.

H85 LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IA IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT A NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SH/TS REMNANTS COULD
DROP FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO EXTEND POPS ATTM.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. I CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM FIRST THING IN THE MORNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD RESIDE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING INTERSTATE 70
BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
ORIENTATED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO THE BOOTHEEL BY THE EVENING.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET TO
PROVIDE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS CERTAINLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF THAN OTHER MODELS AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN`T DISCOUNT ITS
SOLUTION GIVEN PATTERN AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S NEXT SATURDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS WILL BE ON CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING TERMINALS. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER IS STILL
ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH STORMS JUST WEST OF KCOU
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A COMPLEX OF STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT AND MAY
AFFECT KUIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS WILL BE ON CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE TERMINAL. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH A COMPLEX OF STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT. THOSE
STORMS MAY PUT DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH COULD TRY AND FIRE
UP A FEW ISOLATED STORMS NEAR KSTL LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EALY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


GOSSELIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     77  95  79  89 /  10  10  20  10
QUINCY          70  90  69  86 /  50  20  30  10
COLUMBIA        70  93  71  91 /  20  10  20  10
JEFFERSON CITY  69  94  72  93 /  20   5  20  10
SALEM           68  91  72  88 /  10  10  20  10
FARMINGTON      67  91  72  90 /  20   5  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 012330
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
630 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN INVOF A BOUNDARY
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY CAPPED,
THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE PERCOLATING AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.

H85 LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IA IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT A NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SH/TS REMNANTS COULD
DROP FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO EXTEND POPS ATTM.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. I CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM FIRST THING IN THE MORNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD RESIDE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING INTERSTATE 70
BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
ORIENTATED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO THE BOOTHEEL BY THE EVENING.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET TO
PROVIDE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS CERTAINLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF THAN OTHER MODELS AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN`T DISCOUNT ITS
SOLUTION GIVEN PATTERN AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S NEXT SATURDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS WILL BE ON CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING TERMINALS. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER IS STILL
ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH STORMS JUST WEST OF KCOU
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A COMPLEX OF STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT AND MAY
AFFECT KUIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS WILL BE ON CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE TERMINAL. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH A COMPLEX OF STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT. THOSE
STORMS MAY PUT DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH COULD TRY AND FIRE
UP A FEW ISOLATED STORMS NEAR KSTL LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EALY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


GOSSELIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     77  95  79  89 /  10  10  20  10
QUINCY          70  90  69  86 /  50  20  30  10
COLUMBIA        70  93  71  91 /  20  10  20  10
JEFFERSON CITY  69  94  72  93 /  20   5  20  10
SALEM           68  91  72  88 /  10  10  20  10
FARMINGTON      67  91  72  90 /  20   5  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 011919
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
219 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN INVOF A BOUNDARY
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY CAPPED,
THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE PERCOLATING AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.

H85 LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IA IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT A NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SH/TS REMNANTS COULD
DROP FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO EXTEND POPS ATTM.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. I CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM FIRST THING IN THE MORNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD RESIDE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING INTERSTATE 70
BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
ORIENTATED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO THE BOOTHEEL BY THE EVENING.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET TO
PROVIDE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS CERTAINLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF THAN OTHER MODELS AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN`T DISCOUNT ITS
SOLUTION GIVEN PATTERN AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S NEXT SATURDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KUIN: INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IA IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IN SOUTHERN IA OVERNIGHT. IF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX DEVELOPS, THEN SH/TS COULD REACH KUIN AFTER 02/06Z.

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU: INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INVOF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHICH WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO AT TAF ISSUANCE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AFTER A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS MAY OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AT SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY KSUS IN THE RIVER VALLEY.
THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO THE NORTH COULD REACH
KSTL/KSUS/KCPS AFTER 02/10Z HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INTRODUCE VCTS IN THE TAF ATTM.

KANOFSKY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     77  95  79  89 /  10  10  20  10
QUINCY          70  90  69  86 /  50  20  30  10
COLUMBIA        70  93  71  91 /  20  10  20  10
JEFFERSON CITY  69  94  72  93 /  20   5  20  10
SALEM           68  91  72  88 /  10  10  20  10
FARMINGTON      67  91  72  90 /  10   5  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 011919
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
219 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN INVOF A BOUNDARY
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY CAPPED,
THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE PERCOLATING AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.

H85 LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IA IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT A NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SH/TS REMNANTS COULD
DROP FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO EXTEND POPS ATTM.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. I CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM FIRST THING IN THE MORNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD RESIDE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING INTERSTATE 70
BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
ORIENTATED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO THE BOOTHEEL BY THE EVENING.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET TO
PROVIDE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS CERTAINLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF THAN OTHER MODELS AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN`T DISCOUNT ITS
SOLUTION GIVEN PATTERN AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S NEXT SATURDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KUIN: INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IA IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IN SOUTHERN IA OVERNIGHT. IF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX DEVELOPS, THEN SH/TS COULD REACH KUIN AFTER 02/06Z.

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU: INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INVOF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHICH WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO AT TAF ISSUANCE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AFTER A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS MAY OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AT SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY KSUS IN THE RIVER VALLEY.
THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO THE NORTH COULD REACH
KSTL/KSUS/KCPS AFTER 02/10Z HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INTRODUCE VCTS IN THE TAF ATTM.

KANOFSKY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     77  95  79  89 /  10  10  20  10
QUINCY          70  90  69  86 /  50  20  30  10
COLUMBIA        70  93  71  91 /  20  10  20  10
JEFFERSON CITY  69  94  72  93 /  20   5  20  10
SALEM           68  91  72  88 /  10  10  20  10
FARMINGTON      67  91  72  90 /  10   5  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 011739
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1239 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN AN SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP SHOW THIS FORCING
ERODING AROUND 12Z.  ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR
IT TO ACT ON.  HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH A MCS
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA INTO INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 18-20C.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW-
MID 90S WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB.

BRITT

.LONG TERM: (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)

WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA.  CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  BOTH DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH MOS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND
850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR 20C.

(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

IT STILL LOOK LIKE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.  BEST CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A NOTABLE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KUIN: INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IA IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IN SOUTHERN IA OVERNIGHT. IF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX DEVELOPS, THEN SH/TS COULD REACH KUIN AFTER 02/06Z.

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU: INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INVOF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHICH WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO AT TAF ISSUANCE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AFTER A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS MAY OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AT SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY KSUS IN THE RIVER VALLEY.
THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO THE NORTH COULD REACH
KSTL/KSUS/KCPS AFTER 02/10Z HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INTRODUCE VCTS IN THE TAF ATTM.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 011739
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1239 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN AN SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP SHOW THIS FORCING
ERODING AROUND 12Z.  ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR
IT TO ACT ON.  HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH A MCS
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA INTO INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 18-20C.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW-
MID 90S WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB.

BRITT

.LONG TERM: (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)

WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA.  CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  BOTH DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH MOS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND
850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR 20C.

(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

IT STILL LOOK LIKE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.  BEST CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A NOTABLE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KUIN: INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IA IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IN SOUTHERN IA OVERNIGHT. IF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX DEVELOPS, THEN SH/TS COULD REACH KUIN AFTER 02/06Z.

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU: INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INVOF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHICH WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO AT TAF ISSUANCE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AFTER A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS MAY OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AT SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY KSUS IN THE RIVER VALLEY.
THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO THE NORTH COULD REACH
KSTL/KSUS/KCPS AFTER 02/10Z HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INTRODUCE VCTS IN THE TAF ATTM.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 011115
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
615 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN AN SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP SHOW THIS FORCING
ERODING AROUND 12Z.  ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR
IT TO ACT ON.  HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH A MCS
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA INTO INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 18-20C.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW-
MID 90S WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB.

BRITT

.LONG TERM: (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)

WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA.  CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  BOTH DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH MOS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND
850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR 20C.

(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

IT STILL LOOK LIKE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.  BEST CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A NOTABLE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREV TAFS. CU WITH BASES AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SWLY AOB 8 KTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
TSRA AT UIN LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT OUT OF TAF ATTM DUE
TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 011115
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
615 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN AN SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP SHOW THIS FORCING
ERODING AROUND 12Z.  ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR
IT TO ACT ON.  HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH A MCS
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA INTO INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 18-20C.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW-
MID 90S WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB.

BRITT

.LONG TERM: (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)

WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA.  CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  BOTH DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH MOS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND
850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR 20C.

(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

IT STILL LOOK LIKE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.  BEST CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A NOTABLE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREV TAFS. CU WITH BASES AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SWLY AOB 8 KTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
TSRA AT UIN LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT OUT OF TAF ATTM DUE
TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 010843
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
343 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN AN SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP SHOW THIS FORCING
ERODING AROUND 12Z.  ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR
IT TO ACT ON.  HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH A MCS
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA INTO INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 18-20C.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW-
MID 90S WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB.

BRITT

.LONG TERM: (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)

WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA.  CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  BOTH DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH MOS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND
850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR 20C.

(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

IT STILL LOOK LIKE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.  BEST CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A NOTABLE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW SHOWERS STILL REMAIN NEAR KUIN TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY
DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY AND TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. QUINCY MAY BE
AFFECTED TOWARD OR AFTER 0600 UTC BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW
SINCE IT IS SO LATE IN THE PERIOD.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALSO EXPECTED.

GOSSELIN

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 010843
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
343 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN AN SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP SHOW THIS FORCING
ERODING AROUND 12Z.  ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR
IT TO ACT ON.  HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH A MCS
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA INTO INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 18-20C.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW-
MID 90S WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB.

BRITT

.LONG TERM: (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)

WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA.  CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  BOTH DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH MOS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND
850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR 20C.

(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

IT STILL LOOK LIKE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.  BEST CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A NOTABLE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW SHOWERS STILL REMAIN NEAR KUIN TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY
DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY AND TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. QUINCY MAY BE
AFFECTED TOWARD OR AFTER 0600 UTC BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW
SINCE IT IS SO LATE IN THE PERIOD.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALSO EXPECTED.

GOSSELIN

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 010843
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
343 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN AN SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP SHOW THIS FORCING
ERODING AROUND 12Z.  ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR
IT TO ACT ON.  HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH A MCS
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA INTO INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 18-20C.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW-
MID 90S WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB.

BRITT

.LONG TERM: (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)

WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA.  CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  BOTH DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH MOS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND
850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR 20C.

(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

IT STILL LOOK LIKE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.  BEST CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A NOTABLE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW SHOWERS STILL REMAIN NEAR KUIN TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY
DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY AND TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. QUINCY MAY BE
AFFECTED TOWARD OR AFTER 0600 UTC BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW
SINCE IT IS SO LATE IN THE PERIOD.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALSO EXPECTED.

GOSSELIN

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 010438
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1138 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ISOLATED STORMS WHICH FORMED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI/WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FADE WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO SHOULD CONTINUE
PUSH MORE SOUTHWARD AND STAY WEST OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. TOOK
REMAINING POPS OUT TONIGHT AND MADE LITTLE CHANGES ELSEWHERE.
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS
PRIMARILY IN THE 60S OR NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

GOSSELIN

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH THAT WILL TRY TO EDGE INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS
WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVNG. ISLD
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG THE BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN. ANYTHING
THAT DVLPS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS FCST TO DVLP ACROSS SE NEB/WRN IA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SE INTO N
CNTRL MO OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE
PRECIP WILL MAKE IT BEFORE DSSPTNG. HAVE COVERED BOTH THREATS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES. WENT AOB THE
COOLEST MOS BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT AS WELL AS THE FACT
THAT THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT KEEPING
RELATIVELY DRIER DEW POINTS IN PLACE AND HELPING TO KEEP CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS LIGHT.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AMPLIFIED PATTERN DUE TO RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROF TO
THE EAST HAS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEEKEND
WEATHER SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AND WARM.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARM AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.  THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANES MOVE THROUGH IN THE
NOTHWEST FLOW, INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S, WITH LOWS DIPPING MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THE DETAILS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE,
BUT THEY HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST.  THE GFS
AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING THE FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH MISSOURI, AND THE GFS HANGING IT UP OVER THE
OZARKS.  EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS WET AND COOLER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW SHOWERS STILL REMAIN NEAR KUIN TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY
DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY AND TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. QUINCY MAY BE
AFFECTED TOWARD OR AFTER 0600 UTC BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW
SINCE IT IS SO LATE IN THE PERIOD.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALSO EXPECTED.

GOSSELIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     71  93  75  94 /   5  10  10  20
QUINCY          65  91  71  89 /  20  10  30  30
COLUMBIA        66  92  71  92 /   5  10  10  10
JEFFERSON CITY  67  94  70  93 /   5  10  10   5
SALEM           65  90  70  90 /  10  10  10  20
FARMINGTON      63  92  69  92 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 010438
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1138 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ISOLATED STORMS WHICH FORMED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI/WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FADE WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO SHOULD CONTINUE
PUSH MORE SOUTHWARD AND STAY WEST OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. TOOK
REMAINING POPS OUT TONIGHT AND MADE LITTLE CHANGES ELSEWHERE.
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS
PRIMARILY IN THE 60S OR NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

GOSSELIN

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH THAT WILL TRY TO EDGE INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS
WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVNG. ISLD
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG THE BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN. ANYTHING
THAT DVLPS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS FCST TO DVLP ACROSS SE NEB/WRN IA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SE INTO N
CNTRL MO OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE
PRECIP WILL MAKE IT BEFORE DSSPTNG. HAVE COVERED BOTH THREATS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES. WENT AOB THE
COOLEST MOS BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT AS WELL AS THE FACT
THAT THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT KEEPING
RELATIVELY DRIER DEW POINTS IN PLACE AND HELPING TO KEEP CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS LIGHT.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AMPLIFIED PATTERN DUE TO RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROF TO
THE EAST HAS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEEKEND
WEATHER SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AND WARM.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARM AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.  THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANES MOVE THROUGH IN THE
NOTHWEST FLOW, INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S, WITH LOWS DIPPING MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THE DETAILS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE,
BUT THEY HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST.  THE GFS
AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING THE FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH MISSOURI, AND THE GFS HANGING IT UP OVER THE
OZARKS.  EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS WET AND COOLER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW SHOWERS STILL REMAIN NEAR KUIN TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY
DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY AND TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. QUINCY MAY BE
AFFECTED TOWARD OR AFTER 0600 UTC BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW
SINCE IT IS SO LATE IN THE PERIOD.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALSO EXPECTED.

GOSSELIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     71  93  75  94 /   5  10  10  20
QUINCY          65  91  71  89 /  20  10  30  30
COLUMBIA        66  92  71  92 /   5  10  10  10
JEFFERSON CITY  67  94  70  93 /   5  10  10   5
SALEM           65  90  70  90 /  10  10  10  20
FARMINGTON      63  92  69  92 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 010230
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
930 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ISOLATED STORMS WHICH FORMED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI/WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FADE WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO SHOULD CONTINUE
PUSH MORE SOUTHWARD AND STAY WEST OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. TOOK
REMAINING POPS OUT TONIGHT AND MADE LITTLE CHANGES ELSEWHERE.
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS
PRIMARILY IN THE 60S OR NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

GOSSELIN

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH THAT WILL TRY TO EDGE INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS
WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVNG. ISLD
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG THE BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN. ANYTHING
THAT DVLPS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS FCST TO DVLP ACROSS SE NEB/WRN IA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SE INTO N
CNTRL MO OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE
PRECIP WILL MAKE IT BEFORE DSSPTNG. HAVE COVERED BOTH THREATS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES. WENT AOB THE
COOLEST MOS BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT AS WELL AS THE FACT
THAT THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT KEEPING
RELATIVELY DRIER DEW POINTS IN PLACE AND HELPING TO KEEP CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS LIGHT.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AMPLIFIED PATTERN DUE TO RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROF TO
THE EAST HAS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEEKEND
WEATHER SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AND WARM.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARM AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.  THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANES MOVE THROUGH IN THE
NOTHWEST FLOW, INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S, WITH LOWS DIPPING MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THE DETAILS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE,
BUT THEY HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST.  THE GFS
AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING THE FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH MISSOURI, AND THE GFS HANGING IT UP OVER THE
OZARKS.  EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS WET AND COOLER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUIET WEATHER WITH LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER AS IT TRIES TO HEAD ESE
THIS EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
BEFORE AFFECTING KUIN.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.

GOSSELIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     71  93  75  94 /  10  10  10  20
QUINCY          65  91  71  89 /  10  10  30  30
COLUMBIA        66  92  71  92 /  10  20  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  66  94  70  93 /  10  20  10  10
SALEM           65  90  70  90 /   5   5  10  30
FARMINGTON      63  92  69  92 /   5  10  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 010230
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
930 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ISOLATED STORMS WHICH FORMED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI/WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FADE WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO SHOULD CONTINUE
PUSH MORE SOUTHWARD AND STAY WEST OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. TOOK
REMAINING POPS OUT TONIGHT AND MADE LITTLE CHANGES ELSEWHERE.
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS
PRIMARILY IN THE 60S OR NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

GOSSELIN

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH THAT WILL TRY TO EDGE INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS
WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVNG. ISLD
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG THE BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN. ANYTHING
THAT DVLPS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS FCST TO DVLP ACROSS SE NEB/WRN IA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SE INTO N
CNTRL MO OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE
PRECIP WILL MAKE IT BEFORE DSSPTNG. HAVE COVERED BOTH THREATS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES. WENT AOB THE
COOLEST MOS BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT AS WELL AS THE FACT
THAT THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT KEEPING
RELATIVELY DRIER DEW POINTS IN PLACE AND HELPING TO KEEP CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS LIGHT.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AMPLIFIED PATTERN DUE TO RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROF TO
THE EAST HAS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEEKEND
WEATHER SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AND WARM.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARM AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.  THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANES MOVE THROUGH IN THE
NOTHWEST FLOW, INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S, WITH LOWS DIPPING MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THE DETAILS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE,
BUT THEY HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST.  THE GFS
AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING THE FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH MISSOURI, AND THE GFS HANGING IT UP OVER THE
OZARKS.  EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS WET AND COOLER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUIET WEATHER WITH LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER AS IT TRIES TO HEAD ESE
THIS EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
BEFORE AFFECTING KUIN.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.

GOSSELIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     71  93  75  94 /  10  10  10  20
QUINCY          65  91  71  89 /  10  10  30  30
COLUMBIA        66  92  71  92 /  10  20  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  66  94  70  93 /  10  20  10  10
SALEM           65  90  70  90 /   5   5  10  30
FARMINGTON      63  92  69  92 /   5  10  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 312326
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
626 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH THAT WILL TRY TO EDGE INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS
WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVNG. ISLD
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG THE BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN. ANYTHING
THAT DVLPS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS FCST TO DVLP ACROSS SE NEB/WRN IA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SE INTO N
CNTRL MO OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE
PRECIP WILL MAKE IT BEFORE DSSPTNG. HAVE COVERED BOTH THREATS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES. WENT AOB THE
COOLEST MOS BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT AS WELL AS THE FACT
THAT THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT KEEPING
RELATIVELY DRIER DEW POINTS IN PLACE AND HELPING TO KEEP CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS LIGHT.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AMPLIFIED PATTERN DUE TO RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROF TO
THE EAST HAS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEEKEND
WEATHER SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AND WARM.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARM AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.  THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANES MOVE THROUGH IN THE
NOTHWEST FLOW, INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S, WITH LOWS DIPPING MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THE DETAILS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE,
BUT THEY HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST.  THE GFS
AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING THE FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH MISSOURI, AND THE GFS HANGING IT UP OVER THE
OZARKS.  EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS WET AND COOLER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUIET WEATHER WITH LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER AS IT TRIES TO HEAD ESE
THIS EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
BEFORE AFFECTING KUIN.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.

GOSSELIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     71  93  75  94 /  10  10  10  20
QUINCY          65  91  71  89 /  20  10  30  30
COLUMBIA        66  92  71  92 /  10  20  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  66  94  70  93 /  10  20  10  10
SALEM           65  90  70  90 /  10   5  10  30
FARMINGTON      63  92  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 312326
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
626 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH THAT WILL TRY TO EDGE INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS
WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVNG. ISLD
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG THE BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN. ANYTHING
THAT DVLPS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS FCST TO DVLP ACROSS SE NEB/WRN IA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SE INTO N
CNTRL MO OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE
PRECIP WILL MAKE IT BEFORE DSSPTNG. HAVE COVERED BOTH THREATS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES. WENT AOB THE
COOLEST MOS BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT AS WELL AS THE FACT
THAT THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT KEEPING
RELATIVELY DRIER DEW POINTS IN PLACE AND HELPING TO KEEP CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS LIGHT.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AMPLIFIED PATTERN DUE TO RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROF TO
THE EAST HAS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEEKEND
WEATHER SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AND WARM.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARM AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.  THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANES MOVE THROUGH IN THE
NOTHWEST FLOW, INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S, WITH LOWS DIPPING MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THE DETAILS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE,
BUT THEY HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST.  THE GFS
AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING THE FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH MISSOURI, AND THE GFS HANGING IT UP OVER THE
OZARKS.  EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS WET AND COOLER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUIET WEATHER WITH LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER AS IT TRIES TO HEAD ESE
THIS EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
BEFORE AFFECTING KUIN.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.

GOSSELIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     71  93  75  94 /  10  10  10  20
QUINCY          65  91  71  89 /  20  10  30  30
COLUMBIA        66  92  71  92 /  10  20  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  66  94  70  93 /  10  20  10  10
SALEM           65  90  70  90 /  10   5  10  30
FARMINGTON      63  92  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 312053
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
353 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH THAT WILL TRY TO EDGE INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS
WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVNG. ISLD
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG THE BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN. ANYTHING
THAT DVLPS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS FCST TO DVLP ACROSS SE NEB/WRN IA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SE INTO N
CNTRL MO OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE
PRECIP WILL MAKE IT BEFORE DSSPTNG. HAVE COVERED BOTH THREATS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES. WENT AOB THE
COOLEST MOS BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT AS WELL AS THE FACT
THAT THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT KEEPING
RELATIVELY DRIER DEW POINTS IN PLACE AND HELPING TO KEEP CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS LIGHT.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AMPLIFIED PATTERN DUE TO RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROF TO
THE EAST HAS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEEKEND
WEATHER SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AND WARM.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARM AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.  THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANES MOVE THROUGH IN THE
NOTHWEST FLOW, INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S, WITH LOWS DIPPING MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THE DETAILS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE,
BUT THEY HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST.  THE GFS
AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING THE FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH MISSOURI, AND THE GFS HANGING IT UP OVER THE
OZARKS.  EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS WET AND COOLER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD DUE TO EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL OF THE CNTRL CONUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
CREEP INTO THE KUIN TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG THE BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN AND SHOULD
DIMINISH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. NOT CONFIDENT THAT ANYTHING
THAT DOES DVLP WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND FEW/SCT DIURNAL CU.
WRLY WINDS DRNG THIS AFTN WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SFC RIDGE
OVERHEAD.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     71  93  75  94 /  10  10  10  20
QUINCY          65  91  71  89 /  20  10  30  30
COLUMBIA        66  92  71  92 /  10  20  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  66  94  70  93 /  10  20  10  10
SALEM           65  90  70  90 /  10   5  10  30
FARMINGTON      63  92  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 312053
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
353 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH THAT WILL TRY TO EDGE INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS
WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVNG. ISLD
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG THE BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN. ANYTHING
THAT DVLPS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS FCST TO DVLP ACROSS SE NEB/WRN IA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SE INTO N
CNTRL MO OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE
PRECIP WILL MAKE IT BEFORE DSSPTNG. HAVE COVERED BOTH THREATS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES. WENT AOB THE
COOLEST MOS BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT AS WELL AS THE FACT
THAT THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT KEEPING
RELATIVELY DRIER DEW POINTS IN PLACE AND HELPING TO KEEP CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS LIGHT.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AMPLIFIED PATTERN DUE TO RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROF TO
THE EAST HAS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEEKEND
WEATHER SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AND WARM.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARM AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.  THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANES MOVE THROUGH IN THE
NOTHWEST FLOW, INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S, WITH LOWS DIPPING MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THE DETAILS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE,
BUT THEY HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST.  THE GFS
AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING THE FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH MISSOURI, AND THE GFS HANGING IT UP OVER THE
OZARKS.  EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS WET AND COOLER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD DUE TO EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL OF THE CNTRL CONUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
CREEP INTO THE KUIN TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG THE BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN AND SHOULD
DIMINISH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. NOT CONFIDENT THAT ANYTHING
THAT DOES DVLP WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND FEW/SCT DIURNAL CU.
WRLY WINDS DRNG THIS AFTN WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SFC RIDGE
OVERHEAD.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     71  93  75  94 /  10  10  10  20
QUINCY          65  91  71  89 /  20  10  30  30
COLUMBIA        66  92  71  92 /  10  20  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  66  94  70  93 /  10  20  10  10
SALEM           65  90  70  90 /  10   5  10  30
FARMINGTON      63  92  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 311747
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1247 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM: (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WILL START OUT DRY TODAY...BUT HAVE KEPT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME UNSTABLE WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO
WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA BY 12Z ONCE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AREA OVERNIGHT.

MOS HIGHS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WHICH ARE CLOSE TO MIXING DOWN
850MB TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM: (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.  HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS AREA
WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.  DEEP MIXING EACH DAY WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW 90S.

(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

WHILE OVERALL FLOW WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY-MID WEEK WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 20C...BUT WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES... TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD DUE TO EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL OF THE CNTRL CONUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
CREEP INTO THE KUIN TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG THE BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN AND SHOULD
DIMINISH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. NOT CONFIDENT THAT ANYTHING
THAT DOES DVLP WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND FEW/SCT DIURNAL CU.
WRLY WINDS DRNG THIS AFTN WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SFC RIDGE
OVERHEAD.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 311747
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1247 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM: (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WILL START OUT DRY TODAY...BUT HAVE KEPT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME UNSTABLE WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO
WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA BY 12Z ONCE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AREA OVERNIGHT.

MOS HIGHS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WHICH ARE CLOSE TO MIXING DOWN
850MB TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM: (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.  HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS AREA
WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.  DEEP MIXING EACH DAY WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW 90S.

(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

WHILE OVERALL FLOW WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY-MID WEEK WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 20C...BUT WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES... TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD DUE TO EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL OF THE CNTRL CONUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
CREEP INTO THE KUIN TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG THE BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN AND SHOULD
DIMINISH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. NOT CONFIDENT THAT ANYTHING
THAT DOES DVLP WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND FEW/SCT DIURNAL CU.
WRLY WINDS DRNG THIS AFTN WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SFC RIDGE
OVERHEAD.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 311123
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
623 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM: (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WILL START OUT DRY TODAY...BUT HAVE KEPT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME UNSTABLE WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO
WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA BY 12Z ONCE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AREA OVERNIGHT.

MOS HIGHS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WHICH ARE CLOSE TO MIXING DOWN
850MB TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM: (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.  HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS AREA
WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.  DEEP MIXING EACH DAY WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW 90S.

(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

WHILE OVERALL FLOW WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY-MID WEEK WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNEDAY.  850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 20C...BUT WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY AT UIN. HOWEVER...WITH
ONLY ISOD TSRA EXPECTED...CHANCES OF IMPACTING THE TERMINAL ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM. OTHERWISE...WLY WINDS WILL VEER TO NWLY
TODAY AND BECOME VRB TONIGHT.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 311123
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
623 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM: (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WILL START OUT DRY TODAY...BUT HAVE KEPT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME UNSTABLE WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO
WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA BY 12Z ONCE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AREA OVERNIGHT.

MOS HIGHS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WHICH ARE CLOSE TO MIXING DOWN
850MB TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM: (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.  HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS AREA
WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.  DEEP MIXING EACH DAY WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW 90S.

(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

WHILE OVERALL FLOW WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY-MID WEEK WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNEDAY.  850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 20C...BUT WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY AT UIN. HOWEVER...WITH
ONLY ISOD TSRA EXPECTED...CHANCES OF IMPACTING THE TERMINAL ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM. OTHERWISE...WLY WINDS WILL VEER TO NWLY
TODAY AND BECOME VRB TONIGHT.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities