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000
FXUS63 KLSX 262329
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
629 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Clearing skies spread across eastern Missouri and Illinois this
afternoon as the storm system from overnight exited off into the
eastern CONUS. The broad upper level trough that brought shortwave
system and storms overnight will slowly shift east over the next
24 hours, but as that occurs we will have a fleeting chance for
some light precipitation late tonight as cold air sweeps south
across Missouri. Some light forcing on the western side of the
cool surface high tonight might result in some light precipitation
across central Missouri, but otherwise expect overnight lows to
bottom out in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

wfo lsx

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

With a large upper level trough still shifting east across the
region Friday, expectations are that the cold weather will persist
with some of the coldest daytime highs of the week likely.
However, the broader progressive northwest flow will keep the
region a bit active into the weekend, and therefore will allow
for a quick return of above normal temperatures by Sunday.
However, between now and Sunday we will have another little
clipper like system slide into Missouri and Illinois early
Saturday morning. Some light precipitation looks possible across
central into southeast Missouri, but with expected forecast
temperatures there are concerns about precipitation type. Have
continued to use a mix of rain and snow for the precipitation type
as a result.

Late in the weekend temperatures will return to more seasonally
normal levels as the large upper level trough and cool surface
ridge slide off to our east. Above normal temperatures will
persist into next work with another chance for thunderstorms
Wednesday into Thursday next week.

wfo lsx

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Upper level shortwave to slide south through western MO tonight,
bringing in an increase mainly in mid and high clouds. KCOU will
be closer to energy and will see low end vfr cigs later this
evening, but precipitation to remain just west of KCOU. Though
would not be surprised to see some sprinkles there. On Friday,
will see vfr diurnal cu develop on back side of shortwave by mid
morning across region as winds pickup from the north. Then surface
ridge to build in, winds to lighten and cu to diminish towards end
of forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Upper level shortwave to slide south through western MO tonight,
bringing in an increase mainly in mid and high clouds. On Friday,
will see vfr diurnal cu develop on back side of shortwave by 15z
Friday across region as winds pickup from the north. Then surface
ridge to build in, winds to lighten and cu to diminish after 23z Friday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 262329
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
629 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Clearing skies spread across eastern Missouri and Illinois this
afternoon as the storm system from overnight exited off into the
eastern CONUS. The broad upper level trough that brought shortwave
system and storms overnight will slowly shift east over the next
24 hours, but as that occurs we will have a fleeting chance for
some light precipitation late tonight as cold air sweeps south
across Missouri. Some light forcing on the western side of the
cool surface high tonight might result in some light precipitation
across central Missouri, but otherwise expect overnight lows to
bottom out in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

wfo lsx

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

With a large upper level trough still shifting east across the
region Friday, expectations are that the cold weather will persist
with some of the coldest daytime highs of the week likely.
However, the broader progressive northwest flow will keep the
region a bit active into the weekend, and therefore will allow
for a quick return of above normal temperatures by Sunday.
However, between now and Sunday we will have another little
clipper like system slide into Missouri and Illinois early
Saturday morning. Some light precipitation looks possible across
central into southeast Missouri, but with expected forecast
temperatures there are concerns about precipitation type. Have
continued to use a mix of rain and snow for the precipitation type
as a result.

Late in the weekend temperatures will return to more seasonally
normal levels as the large upper level trough and cool surface
ridge slide off to our east. Above normal temperatures will
persist into next work with another chance for thunderstorms
Wednesday into Thursday next week.

wfo lsx

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Upper level shortwave to slide south through western MO tonight,
bringing in an increase mainly in mid and high clouds. KCOU will
be closer to energy and will see low end vfr cigs later this
evening, but precipitation to remain just west of KCOU. Though
would not be surprised to see some sprinkles there. On Friday,
will see vfr diurnal cu develop on back side of shortwave by mid
morning across region as winds pickup from the north. Then surface
ridge to build in, winds to lighten and cu to diminish towards end
of forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Upper level shortwave to slide south through western MO tonight,
bringing in an increase mainly in mid and high clouds. On Friday,
will see vfr diurnal cu develop on back side of shortwave by 15z
Friday across region as winds pickup from the north. Then surface
ridge to build in, winds to lighten and cu to diminish after 23z Friday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 262112
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
412 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015


.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Clearing skies spread across eastern Missouri and Illinois this
afternoon as the storm system from overnight exited off into the
eastern CONUS. The broad upper level trough that brought shortwave
system and storms overnight will slowly shift east over the next
24 hours, but as that occurs we will have a fleeting chance for
some light precipitation late tonight as cold air sweeps south
across Missouri. Some light forcing on the western side of the
cool surface high tonight might result in some light precipitation
across central Missouri, but otherwise expect overnight lows to
bottom out in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

wfo lsx

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

With a large upper level trough still shifting east across the
region Friday, expectations are that the cold weather will persist
with some of the coldest daytime highs of the week likely.
However, the broader progressive northwest flow will keep the
region a bit active into the weekend, and therefore will allow
for a quick return of above normal temperatures by Sunday.
However, between now and Sunday we will have another little
clipper like system slide into Missouri and Illinois early
Saturday morning. Some light precipitation looks possible across
central into southeast Missouri, but with expected forecast
temperatures there are concerns about precipitation type. Have
continued to use a mix of rain and snow for the precipitation type
as a result.

Late in the weekend temperatures will return to more seasonally
normal levels as the large upper level trough and cool surface
ridge slide off to our east. Above normal temperatures will
persist into next work with another chance for thunderstorms
Wednesday into Thursday next week.

wfo lsx

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

What MVFR ceilings where affecting the terminals have now settled
south. With a persistent northwest wind expected over the next 30
hours only issue looks to be the return of ceilings early Friday
morning as another round of showers sinking south through western
Missouri. Think the KCOU terminal will be most affected by the
lower CIGs, but even then thinking is that it should stay in the
MVFR range.

Specifics for KSTL:

Clearing skies will prevail for the rest of the afternoon. Clouds
will try and move back in early Friday morning, though forecast
thoughts are that CIGs will be in the high end of MVFR or low VFR
range Friday. Otherwise, expect surface winds to remain form the
northwest overnight into Friday with wind speeds to come up above
10 MPH Friday morning.

WFO LSX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     33  44  28  44 /  10  10  10  10
Quincy          29  42  25  44 /  10  10   5   5
Columbia        31  45  30  47 /  20  10  20  10
Jefferson City  30  46  30  48 /  10  10  20  20
Salem           31  42  24  43 /  10  10   5   0
Farmington      30  46  28  45 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 262112
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
412 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015


.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Clearing skies spread across eastern Missouri and Illinois this
afternoon as the storm system from overnight exited off into the
eastern CONUS. The broad upper level trough that brought shortwave
system and storms overnight will slowly shift east over the next
24 hours, but as that occurs we will have a fleeting chance for
some light precipitation late tonight as cold air sweeps south
across Missouri. Some light forcing on the western side of the
cool surface high tonight might result in some light precipitation
across central Missouri, but otherwise expect overnight lows to
bottom out in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

wfo lsx

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

With a large upper level trough still shifting east across the
region Friday, expectations are that the cold weather will persist
with some of the coldest daytime highs of the week likely.
However, the broader progressive northwest flow will keep the
region a bit active into the weekend, and therefore will allow
for a quick return of above normal temperatures by Sunday.
However, between now and Sunday we will have another little
clipper like system slide into Missouri and Illinois early
Saturday morning. Some light precipitation looks possible across
central into southeast Missouri, but with expected forecast
temperatures there are concerns about precipitation type. Have
continued to use a mix of rain and snow for the precipitation type
as a result.

Late in the weekend temperatures will return to more seasonally
normal levels as the large upper level trough and cool surface
ridge slide off to our east. Above normal temperatures will
persist into next work with another chance for thunderstorms
Wednesday into Thursday next week.

wfo lsx

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

What MVFR ceilings where affecting the terminals have now settled
south. With a persistent northwest wind expected over the next 30
hours only issue looks to be the return of ceilings early Friday
morning as another round of showers sinking south through western
Missouri. Think the KCOU terminal will be most affected by the
lower CIGs, but even then thinking is that it should stay in the
MVFR range.

Specifics for KSTL:

Clearing skies will prevail for the rest of the afternoon. Clouds
will try and move back in early Friday morning, though forecast
thoughts are that CIGs will be in the high end of MVFR or low VFR
range Friday. Otherwise, expect surface winds to remain form the
northwest overnight into Friday with wind speeds to come up above
10 MPH Friday morning.

WFO LSX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     33  44  28  44 /  10  10  10  10
Quincy          29  42  25  44 /  10  10   5   5
Columbia        31  45  30  47 /  20  10  20  10
Jefferson City  30  46  30  48 /  10  10  20  20
Salem           31  42  24  43 /  10  10   5   0
Farmington      30  46  28  45 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 262112
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
412 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015


.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Clearing skies spread across eastern Missouri and Illinois this
afternoon as the storm system from overnight exited off into the
eastern CONUS. The broad upper level trough that brought shortwave
system and storms overnight will slowly shift east over the next
24 hours, but as that occurs we will have a fleeting chance for
some light precipitation late tonight as cold air sweeps south
across Missouri. Some light forcing on the western side of the
cool surface high tonight might result in some light precipitation
across central Missouri, but otherwise expect overnight lows to
bottom out in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

wfo lsx

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

With a large upper level trough still shifting east across the
region Friday, expectations are that the cold weather will persist
with some of the coldest daytime highs of the week likely.
However, the broader progressive northwest flow will keep the
region a bit active into the weekend, and therefore will allow
for a quick return of above normal temperatures by Sunday.
However, between now and Sunday we will have another little
clipper like system slide into Missouri and Illinois early
Saturday morning. Some light precipitation looks possible across
central into southeast Missouri, but with expected forecast
temperatures there are concerns about precipitation type. Have
continued to use a mix of rain and snow for the precipitation type
as a result.

Late in the weekend temperatures will return to more seasonally
normal levels as the large upper level trough and cool surface
ridge slide off to our east. Above normal temperatures will
persist into next work with another chance for thunderstorms
Wednesday into Thursday next week.

wfo lsx

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

What MVFR ceilings where affecting the terminals have now settled
south. With a persistent northwest wind expected over the next 30
hours only issue looks to be the return of ceilings early Friday
morning as another round of showers sinking south through western
Missouri. Think the KCOU terminal will be most affected by the
lower CIGs, but even then thinking is that it should stay in the
MVFR range.

Specifics for KSTL:

Clearing skies will prevail for the rest of the afternoon. Clouds
will try and move back in early Friday morning, though forecast
thoughts are that CIGs will be in the high end of MVFR or low VFR
range Friday. Otherwise, expect surface winds to remain form the
northwest overnight into Friday with wind speeds to come up above
10 MPH Friday morning.

WFO LSX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     33  44  28  44 /  10  10  10  10
Quincy          29  42  25  44 /  10  10   5   5
Columbia        31  45  30  47 /  20  10  20  10
Jefferson City  30  46  30  48 /  10  10  20  20
Salem           31  42  24  43 /  10  10   5   0
Farmington      30  46  28  45 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 261724
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Light rain will continue to move east and be exiting the CWA this
morning. Threat of flash flooding has ended and will be canceling
the watch early with the forecast this morning. Temperatures
continue to drop through the 40s with steady cold advection, but
clearing and some welcome sunshine should help this afternoon.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Saturday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A pattern more indicative of winter takes hold across the center and
eastern CONUS to end the work week and begin the weekend.
Temperatures will remain below normal through Saturday as deep
longwave trof digs all the way south to the Gulf Coast. Several
shortwaves rotating through on northwest flow aloft will provide
chances of some light precipitation. The first chance tonight into
Friday morning appears to stay mainly west of the CWA, but for
consistency with neighboring offices have included some slight
chance POPs across central Missouri. The second shortwave, appears
to have a little more "juice" with it and have increased POPs for
the western CWA Friday night and Saturday morning. Atmosphere is
cold enough that some snow may fly in the sky, but accumulation
should remain limited thanks to warm ground temperatures. You know,
my Uncle Carl always told me that it always snows one last time
every spring on the budding/blooming forsythia (bush with yellow
flowers in the spring), and to this day that rule of thumb has held
true. So, to keep tradition alive, I regrettably have a mention of
snow in the forecast. Lets hope it is the last time this spring!

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Temperatures generally warm during the extended as upper levels
go zonal across the CONUS next week. Appears that two weak cold
fronts will bring a chance of rain Sunday and Sunday night and
showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday/Wednesday night.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

What MVFR ceilings where affecting the terminals have now settled
south. With a persistent northwest wind expected over the next 30
hours only issue looks to be the return of ceilings early Friday
morning as another round of showers sinking south through western
Missouri. Think the KCOU terminal will be most affected by the
lower CIGs, but even then thinking is that it should stay in the
MVFR range.

Specifics for KSTL:

Clearing skies will prevail for the rest of the afternoon. Clouds
will try and move back in early Friday morning, though forecast
thoughts are that CIGs will be in the high end of MVFR or low VFR
range Friday. Otherwise, expect surface winds to remain form the
northwest overnight into Friday with wind speeds to come up above
10 MPH Friday morning.

WFO LSX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     49  33  47  28 /  20  10  10  10
Quincy          47  29  43  25 /  10  10  10  10
Columbia        50  31  48  30 /  10  20  10  40
Jefferson City  50  30  49  30 /  10  20  10  40
Salem           49  31  44  24 /  40  10  10  10
Farmington      49  30  47  28 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 261724
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Light rain will continue to move east and be exiting the CWA this
morning. Threat of flash flooding has ended and will be canceling
the watch early with the forecast this morning. Temperatures
continue to drop through the 40s with steady cold advection, but
clearing and some welcome sunshine should help this afternoon.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Saturday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A pattern more indicative of winter takes hold across the center and
eastern CONUS to end the work week and begin the weekend.
Temperatures will remain below normal through Saturday as deep
longwave trof digs all the way south to the Gulf Coast. Several
shortwaves rotating through on northwest flow aloft will provide
chances of some light precipitation. The first chance tonight into
Friday morning appears to stay mainly west of the CWA, but for
consistency with neighboring offices have included some slight
chance POPs across central Missouri. The second shortwave, appears
to have a little more "juice" with it and have increased POPs for
the western CWA Friday night and Saturday morning. Atmosphere is
cold enough that some snow may fly in the sky, but accumulation
should remain limited thanks to warm ground temperatures. You know,
my Uncle Carl always told me that it always snows one last time
every spring on the budding/blooming forsythia (bush with yellow
flowers in the spring), and to this day that rule of thumb has held
true. So, to keep tradition alive, I regrettably have a mention of
snow in the forecast. Lets hope it is the last time this spring!

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Temperatures generally warm during the extended as upper levels
go zonal across the CONUS next week. Appears that two weak cold
fronts will bring a chance of rain Sunday and Sunday night and
showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday/Wednesday night.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

What MVFR ceilings where affecting the terminals have now settled
south. With a persistent northwest wind expected over the next 30
hours only issue looks to be the return of ceilings early Friday
morning as another round of showers sinking south through western
Missouri. Think the KCOU terminal will be most affected by the
lower CIGs, but even then thinking is that it should stay in the
MVFR range.

Specifics for KSTL:

Clearing skies will prevail for the rest of the afternoon. Clouds
will try and move back in early Friday morning, though forecast
thoughts are that CIGs will be in the high end of MVFR or low VFR
range Friday. Otherwise, expect surface winds to remain form the
northwest overnight into Friday with wind speeds to come up above
10 MPH Friday morning.

WFO LSX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     49  33  47  28 /  20  10  10  10
Quincy          47  29  43  25 /  10  10  10  10
Columbia        50  31  48  30 /  10  20  10  40
Jefferson City  50  30  49  30 /  10  20  10  40
Salem           49  31  44  24 /  40  10  10  10
Farmington      49  30  47  28 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 261724
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Light rain will continue to move east and be exiting the CWA this
morning. Threat of flash flooding has ended and will be canceling
the watch early with the forecast this morning. Temperatures
continue to drop through the 40s with steady cold advection, but
clearing and some welcome sunshine should help this afternoon.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Saturday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A pattern more indicative of winter takes hold across the center and
eastern CONUS to end the work week and begin the weekend.
Temperatures will remain below normal through Saturday as deep
longwave trof digs all the way south to the Gulf Coast. Several
shortwaves rotating through on northwest flow aloft will provide
chances of some light precipitation. The first chance tonight into
Friday morning appears to stay mainly west of the CWA, but for
consistency with neighboring offices have included some slight
chance POPs across central Missouri. The second shortwave, appears
to have a little more "juice" with it and have increased POPs for
the western CWA Friday night and Saturday morning. Atmosphere is
cold enough that some snow may fly in the sky, but accumulation
should remain limited thanks to warm ground temperatures. You know,
my Uncle Carl always told me that it always snows one last time
every spring on the budding/blooming forsythia (bush with yellow
flowers in the spring), and to this day that rule of thumb has held
true. So, to keep tradition alive, I regrettably have a mention of
snow in the forecast. Lets hope it is the last time this spring!

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Temperatures generally warm during the extended as upper levels
go zonal across the CONUS next week. Appears that two weak cold
fronts will bring a chance of rain Sunday and Sunday night and
showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday/Wednesday night.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

What MVFR ceilings where affecting the terminals have now settled
south. With a persistent northwest wind expected over the next 30
hours only issue looks to be the return of ceilings early Friday
morning as another round of showers sinking south through western
Missouri. Think the KCOU terminal will be most affected by the
lower CIGs, but even then thinking is that it should stay in the
MVFR range.

Specifics for KSTL:

Clearing skies will prevail for the rest of the afternoon. Clouds
will try and move back in early Friday morning, though forecast
thoughts are that CIGs will be in the high end of MVFR or low VFR
range Friday. Otherwise, expect surface winds to remain form the
northwest overnight into Friday with wind speeds to come up above
10 MPH Friday morning.

WFO LSX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     49  33  47  28 /  20  10  10  10
Quincy          47  29  43  25 /  10  10  10  10
Columbia        50  31  48  30 /  10  20  10  40
Jefferson City  50  30  49  30 /  10  20  10  40
Salem           49  31  44  24 /  40  10  10  10
Farmington      49  30  47  28 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 261123
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
623 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Light rain will continue to move east and be exiting the CWA this
morning. Threat of flash flooding has ended and will be canceling
the watch early with the forecast this morning. Temperatures
continue to drop through the 40s with steady cold advection, but
clearing and some welcome sunshine should help this afternoon.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Saturday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A pattern more indicative of winter takes hold across the center and
eastern CONUS to end the work week and begin the weekend.
Temperatures will remain below normal through Saturday as deep
longwave trof digs all the way south to the Gulf Coast. Several
shortwaves rotating through on northwest flow aloft will provide
chances of some light precipitation. The first chance tonight into
Friday morning appears to stay mainly west of the CWA, but for
consistency with neighboring offices have included some slight
chance POPs across central Missouri. The second shortwave, appears
to have a little more "juice" with it and have increased POPs for
the western CWA Friday night and Saturday morning. Atmosphere is
cold enough that some snow may fly in the sky, but accumulation
should remain limited thanks to warm ground temperatures. You know,
my Uncle Carl always told me that it always snows one last time
every spring on the budding/blooming forsythia (bush with yellow
flowers in the spring), and to this day that rule of thumb has held
true. So, to keep tradition alive, I regrettably have a mention of
snow in the forecast. Lets hope it is the last time this spring!

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Temperatures generally warm during the extended as upper levels
go zonal across the CONUS next week. Appears that two weak cold
fronts will bring a chance of rain Sunday and Sunday night and
showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday/Wednesday night.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Residual light rain and MVFR CIGs should be exiting in the first
few hrs of the fcst prd with clearing skies thru the mrng. A weak
storm system is expected to drop SE thru the Plains tonight and
spread VFR clouds across the region. Could be some light rain or
sprinkles at KCOU after 6Z but will let later shifts refine the
fcst.

Specifics for KSTL:

Rain should be ending by 12Z with MVFR CIGs dssptng a few hrs
later. Skies will continue to clear thru the mrng. A weak storm
system will drop SE thru the Plains tonight spreading VFR clouds
into the terminal after 00Z

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     49  33  47  28 /  20  10  10  10
Quincy          47  29  43  25 /  10  10  10  10
Columbia        49  32  48  30 /  10  10  10  40
Jefferson City  50  30  49  30 /  10  20  10  40
Salem           49  31  44  24 /  40  10  10  10
Farmington      49  30  47  28 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 261123
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
623 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Light rain will continue to move east and be exiting the CWA this
morning. Threat of flash flooding has ended and will be canceling
the watch early with the forecast this morning. Temperatures
continue to drop through the 40s with steady cold advection, but
clearing and some welcome sunshine should help this afternoon.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Saturday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A pattern more indicative of winter takes hold across the center and
eastern CONUS to end the work week and begin the weekend.
Temperatures will remain below normal through Saturday as deep
longwave trof digs all the way south to the Gulf Coast. Several
shortwaves rotating through on northwest flow aloft will provide
chances of some light precipitation. The first chance tonight into
Friday morning appears to stay mainly west of the CWA, but for
consistency with neighboring offices have included some slight
chance POPs across central Missouri. The second shortwave, appears
to have a little more "juice" with it and have increased POPs for
the western CWA Friday night and Saturday morning. Atmosphere is
cold enough that some snow may fly in the sky, but accumulation
should remain limited thanks to warm ground temperatures. You know,
my Uncle Carl always told me that it always snows one last time
every spring on the budding/blooming forsythia (bush with yellow
flowers in the spring), and to this day that rule of thumb has held
true. So, to keep tradition alive, I regrettably have a mention of
snow in the forecast. Lets hope it is the last time this spring!

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Temperatures generally warm during the extended as upper levels
go zonal across the CONUS next week. Appears that two weak cold
fronts will bring a chance of rain Sunday and Sunday night and
showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday/Wednesday night.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Residual light rain and MVFR CIGs should be exiting in the first
few hrs of the fcst prd with clearing skies thru the mrng. A weak
storm system is expected to drop SE thru the Plains tonight and
spread VFR clouds across the region. Could be some light rain or
sprinkles at KCOU after 6Z but will let later shifts refine the
fcst.

Specifics for KSTL:

Rain should be ending by 12Z with MVFR CIGs dssptng a few hrs
later. Skies will continue to clear thru the mrng. A weak storm
system will drop SE thru the Plains tonight spreading VFR clouds
into the terminal after 00Z

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     49  33  47  28 /  20  10  10  10
Quincy          47  29  43  25 /  10  10  10  10
Columbia        49  32  48  30 /  10  10  10  40
Jefferson City  50  30  49  30 /  10  20  10  40
Salem           49  31  44  24 /  40  10  10  10
Farmington      49  30  47  28 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260724
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
224 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Light rain will continue to move east and be exiting the CWA this
morning. Threat of flash flooding has ended and will be canceling
the watch early with the forecast this morning. Temperatures
continue to drop through the 40s with steady cold advection, but
clearing and some welcome sunshine should help this afternoon.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Saturday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A pattern more indicative of winter takes hold across the center and
eastern CONUS to end the work week and begin the weekend.
Temperatures will remain below normal through Saturday as deep
longwave trof digs all the way south to the Gulf Coast. Several
shortwaves rotating through on northwest flow aloft will provide
chances of some light precipitation. The first chance tonight into
Friday morning appears to stay mainly west of the CWA, but for
consistency with neighboring offices have included some slight
chance POPs across central Missouri. The second shortwave, appears
to have a little more "juice" with it and have increased POPs for
the western CWA Friday night and Saturday morning. Atmosphere is
cold enough that some snow may fly in the sky, but accumulation
should remain limited thanks to warm ground temperatures. You know,
my Uncle Carl always told me that it always snows one last time
every spring on the budding/blooming forsythia (bush with yellow
flowers in the spring), and to this day that rule of thumb has held
true. So, to keep tradition alive, I regrettably have a mention of
snow in the forecast. Lets hope it is the last time this spring!

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Temperatures generally warm during the extended as upper levels
go zonal across the CONUS next week. Appears that two weak cold
fronts will bring a chance of rain Sunday and Sunday night and
showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday/Wednesday night.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Taf sites remain on north side of system as it slides northeast
into Ohio Valley through daybreak. Rain to taper off from north to
south over the next several hours. KUIN should be dry by 06z
Thursday, while rain will exit KCOU by 09z Thursday and metro area
by 11z Thursday. Otherwise, where it is raining, MVFR/IFR cigs and
vsbys possible, before lifting to VFR as rain exits. As for winds,
to remain north to northwest through the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Metro to remain on north side of system as it slides northeast
into Ohio Valley through daybreak. Rain to taper off from north to
south over the next several hours exiting metro area by 11z
Thursday. Otherwise, where it is raining, MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys
possible, before lifting to VFR as rain exits. As for winds, to
remain north to northwest through the forecast period.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     49  33  47  28 /  20  10  10  10
Quincy          47  29  43  25 /  10  10  10  10
Columbia        49  32  48  30 /  10  10  10  40
Jefferson City  50  30  49  30 /  10  20  10  40
Salem           49  31  44  24 /  40  10  10  10
Farmington      49  30  47  28 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Crawford MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Clinton IL-
     Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260724
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
224 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Light rain will continue to move east and be exiting the CWA this
morning. Threat of flash flooding has ended and will be canceling
the watch early with the forecast this morning. Temperatures
continue to drop through the 40s with steady cold advection, but
clearing and some welcome sunshine should help this afternoon.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Saturday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A pattern more indicative of winter takes hold across the center and
eastern CONUS to end the work week and begin the weekend.
Temperatures will remain below normal through Saturday as deep
longwave trof digs all the way south to the Gulf Coast. Several
shortwaves rotating through on northwest flow aloft will provide
chances of some light precipitation. The first chance tonight into
Friday morning appears to stay mainly west of the CWA, but for
consistency with neighboring offices have included some slight
chance POPs across central Missouri. The second shortwave, appears
to have a little more "juice" with it and have increased POPs for
the western CWA Friday night and Saturday morning. Atmosphere is
cold enough that some snow may fly in the sky, but accumulation
should remain limited thanks to warm ground temperatures. You know,
my Uncle Carl always told me that it always snows one last time
every spring on the budding/blooming forsythia (bush with yellow
flowers in the spring), and to this day that rule of thumb has held
true. So, to keep tradition alive, I regrettably have a mention of
snow in the forecast. Lets hope it is the last time this spring!

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Temperatures generally warm during the extended as upper levels
go zonal across the CONUS next week. Appears that two weak cold
fronts will bring a chance of rain Sunday and Sunday night and
showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday/Wednesday night.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Taf sites remain on north side of system as it slides northeast
into Ohio Valley through daybreak. Rain to taper off from north to
south over the next several hours. KUIN should be dry by 06z
Thursday, while rain will exit KCOU by 09z Thursday and metro area
by 11z Thursday. Otherwise, where it is raining, MVFR/IFR cigs and
vsbys possible, before lifting to VFR as rain exits. As for winds,
to remain north to northwest through the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Metro to remain on north side of system as it slides northeast
into Ohio Valley through daybreak. Rain to taper off from north to
south over the next several hours exiting metro area by 11z
Thursday. Otherwise, where it is raining, MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys
possible, before lifting to VFR as rain exits. As for winds, to
remain north to northwest through the forecast period.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     49  33  47  28 /  20  10  10  10
Quincy          47  29  43  25 /  10  10  10  10
Columbia        49  32  48  30 /  10  10  10  40
Jefferson City  50  30  49  30 /  10  20  10  40
Salem           49  31  44  24 /  40  10  10  10
Farmington      49  30  47  28 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Crawford MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Clinton IL-
     Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 260450
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Focus for tonight will be TSRA chances and potential flooding.

Convection allowing mdls are in generally good agreement with
ongoing TSRA intensifying over the next few hours and spreading ewd
reaching the srn portions of the CWA around 00z this evening. Some
training will be possible early in the event. However, by 06z, cells
shud be more progressive and transitioning ewd withe more stratiform
precip behind the leading line thru the morning hours.

This presents a question of how much rainfall will occur overnight.
Believe threat for flooding is not as great as previously thought.
However, with the area receiving precip yesterday, TSRA expected
tonight with stratiform precip expected behind, feel the threat is
still high enuf to keep the watch going.

As for temps, have trended twd the cooler guidance with fropa
tonight.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Precip shud be moving out of the region by 15z Thurs leaving the
remainder of the day dry. With clouds clearing, have trended twd the
warmer guidance with deep mixing expected.

Not much change from the prev forecast.  Mdls are in good agreement
with a strong s/w digging into the region Thurs night into Fri
bringing a cooler airmass into the region. Mdls are now suggesting
light precip with this s/w and have added low PoPs for this time
period. Have kept low for now, but if this signal remains
persistent, these PoPs will need to be increased drastically.
Soundings for this time period suggests SN will be possible when sfc
temps are cool enuf. Still some questions regarding p-types and will
modify as the system approaches.

Temps gradually moderate with mdls in fairly good agreement thru
next Tues. Upper air pattern becomes more zonal with a cdfnt will
bring chance of RA on Sun with another fnt bringing a chance for
TSRA on Wed into Thurs.

Tilly
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Taf sites remain on north side of system as it slides northeast
into Ohio Valley through daybreak. Rain to taper off from north to
south over the next several hours. KUIN should be dry by 06z
Thursday, while rain will exit KCOU by 09z Thursday and metro area
by 11z Thursday. Otherwise, where it is raining, MVFR/IFR cigs and
vsbys possible, before lifting to VFR as rain exits. As for winds,
to remain north to northwest through the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Metro to remain on north side of system as it slides northeast
into Ohio Valley through daybreak. Rain to taper off from north to
south over the next several hours exiting metro area by 11z
Thursday. Otherwise, where it is raining, MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys
possible, before lifting to VFR as rain exits. As for winds, to
remain north to northwest through the forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Thursday FOR Crawford MO-Iron
     MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Thursday FOR Clinton IL-Marion
     IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260450
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Focus for tonight will be TSRA chances and potential flooding.

Convection allowing mdls are in generally good agreement with
ongoing TSRA intensifying over the next few hours and spreading ewd
reaching the srn portions of the CWA around 00z this evening. Some
training will be possible early in the event. However, by 06z, cells
shud be more progressive and transitioning ewd withe more stratiform
precip behind the leading line thru the morning hours.

This presents a question of how much rainfall will occur overnight.
Believe threat for flooding is not as great as previously thought.
However, with the area receiving precip yesterday, TSRA expected
tonight with stratiform precip expected behind, feel the threat is
still high enuf to keep the watch going.

As for temps, have trended twd the cooler guidance with fropa
tonight.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Precip shud be moving out of the region by 15z Thurs leaving the
remainder of the day dry. With clouds clearing, have trended twd the
warmer guidance with deep mixing expected.

Not much change from the prev forecast.  Mdls are in good agreement
with a strong s/w digging into the region Thurs night into Fri
bringing a cooler airmass into the region. Mdls are now suggesting
light precip with this s/w and have added low PoPs for this time
period. Have kept low for now, but if this signal remains
persistent, these PoPs will need to be increased drastically.
Soundings for this time period suggests SN will be possible when sfc
temps are cool enuf. Still some questions regarding p-types and will
modify as the system approaches.

Temps gradually moderate with mdls in fairly good agreement thru
next Tues. Upper air pattern becomes more zonal with a cdfnt will
bring chance of RA on Sun with another fnt bringing a chance for
TSRA on Wed into Thurs.

Tilly
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Taf sites remain on north side of system as it slides northeast
into Ohio Valley through daybreak. Rain to taper off from north to
south over the next several hours. KUIN should be dry by 06z
Thursday, while rain will exit KCOU by 09z Thursday and metro area
by 11z Thursday. Otherwise, where it is raining, MVFR/IFR cigs and
vsbys possible, before lifting to VFR as rain exits. As for winds,
to remain north to northwest through the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Metro to remain on north side of system as it slides northeast
into Ohio Valley through daybreak. Rain to taper off from north to
south over the next several hours exiting metro area by 11z
Thursday. Otherwise, where it is raining, MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys
possible, before lifting to VFR as rain exits. As for winds, to
remain north to northwest through the forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Thursday FOR Crawford MO-Iron
     MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Thursday FOR Clinton IL-Marion
     IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 252341
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
641 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Focus for tonight will be TSRA chances and potential flooding.

Convection allowing mdls are in generally good agreement with
ongoing TSRA intensifying over the next few hours and spreading ewd
reaching the srn portions of the CWA around 00z this evening. Some
training will be possible early in the event. However, by 06z, cells
shud be more progressive and transitioning ewd withe more stratiform
precip behind the leading line thru the morning hours.

This presents a question of how much rainfall will occur overnight.
Believe threat for flooding is not as great as previously thought.
However, with the area receiving precip yesterday, TSRA expected
tonight with stratiform precip expected behind, feel the threat is
still high enuf to keep the watch going.

As for temps, have trended twd the cooler guidance with fropa
tonight.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Precip shud be moving out of the region by 15z Thurs leaving the
remainder of the day dry. With clouds clearing, have trended twd the
warmer guidance with deep mixing expected.

Not much change from the prev forecast.  Mdls are in good agreement
with a strong s/w digging into the region Thurs night into Fri
bringing a cooler airmass into the region. Mdls are now suggesting
light precip with this s/w and have added low PoPs for this time
period. Have kept low for now, but if this signal remains
persistent, these PoPs will need to be increased drastically.
Soundings for this time period suggests SN will be possible when sfc
temps are cool enuf. Still some questions regarding p-types and will
modify as the system approaches.

Temps gradually moderate with mdls in fairly good agreement thru
next Tues. Upper air pattern becomes more zonal with a cdfnt will
bring chance of RA on Sun with another fnt bringing a chance for
TSRA on Wed into Thurs.

Tilly
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Showers moving mainly along I-70 corridor as of 2330z. So KUIN
will remain on far northern fringes of any precipitation this
evening. Main issue could be some mvfr at times there. Further
south light rain with mvfr cigs and vsbys through daybreak then
cigs/vsbys become vfr for remainder of taf forecast period.
Otherwise, winds to persist from the north to northwest through
the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Showers moving mainly along I-70 corridor as of 2330z. Light rain
with mvfr cigs and vsbys through 11z Thursday then cigs/vsbys become vfr
for remainder of taf forecast period. Otherwise, winds to persist
from the north then back to the northwest after 11z Thursday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR Crawford MO-Iron
     MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR Clinton IL-Marion
     IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252341
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
641 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Focus for tonight will be TSRA chances and potential flooding.

Convection allowing mdls are in generally good agreement with
ongoing TSRA intensifying over the next few hours and spreading ewd
reaching the srn portions of the CWA around 00z this evening. Some
training will be possible early in the event. However, by 06z, cells
shud be more progressive and transitioning ewd withe more stratiform
precip behind the leading line thru the morning hours.

This presents a question of how much rainfall will occur overnight.
Believe threat for flooding is not as great as previously thought.
However, with the area receiving precip yesterday, TSRA expected
tonight with stratiform precip expected behind, feel the threat is
still high enuf to keep the watch going.

As for temps, have trended twd the cooler guidance with fropa
tonight.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Precip shud be moving out of the region by 15z Thurs leaving the
remainder of the day dry. With clouds clearing, have trended twd the
warmer guidance with deep mixing expected.

Not much change from the prev forecast.  Mdls are in good agreement
with a strong s/w digging into the region Thurs night into Fri
bringing a cooler airmass into the region. Mdls are now suggesting
light precip with this s/w and have added low PoPs for this time
period. Have kept low for now, but if this signal remains
persistent, these PoPs will need to be increased drastically.
Soundings for this time period suggests SN will be possible when sfc
temps are cool enuf. Still some questions regarding p-types and will
modify as the system approaches.

Temps gradually moderate with mdls in fairly good agreement thru
next Tues. Upper air pattern becomes more zonal with a cdfnt will
bring chance of RA on Sun with another fnt bringing a chance for
TSRA on Wed into Thurs.

Tilly
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Showers moving mainly along I-70 corridor as of 2330z. So KUIN
will remain on far northern fringes of any precipitation this
evening. Main issue could be some mvfr at times there. Further
south light rain with mvfr cigs and vsbys through daybreak then
cigs/vsbys become vfr for remainder of taf forecast period.
Otherwise, winds to persist from the north to northwest through
the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Showers moving mainly along I-70 corridor as of 2330z. Light rain
with mvfr cigs and vsbys through 11z Thursday then cigs/vsbys become vfr
for remainder of taf forecast period. Otherwise, winds to persist
from the north then back to the northwest after 11z Thursday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR Crawford MO-Iron
     MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR Clinton IL-Marion
     IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 252341
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
641 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Focus for tonight will be TSRA chances and potential flooding.

Convection allowing mdls are in generally good agreement with
ongoing TSRA intensifying over the next few hours and spreading ewd
reaching the srn portions of the CWA around 00z this evening. Some
training will be possible early in the event. However, by 06z, cells
shud be more progressive and transitioning ewd withe more stratiform
precip behind the leading line thru the morning hours.

This presents a question of how much rainfall will occur overnight.
Believe threat for flooding is not as great as previously thought.
However, with the area receiving precip yesterday, TSRA expected
tonight with stratiform precip expected behind, feel the threat is
still high enuf to keep the watch going.

As for temps, have trended twd the cooler guidance with fropa
tonight.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Precip shud be moving out of the region by 15z Thurs leaving the
remainder of the day dry. With clouds clearing, have trended twd the
warmer guidance with deep mixing expected.

Not much change from the prev forecast.  Mdls are in good agreement
with a strong s/w digging into the region Thurs night into Fri
bringing a cooler airmass into the region. Mdls are now suggesting
light precip with this s/w and have added low PoPs for this time
period. Have kept low for now, but if this signal remains
persistent, these PoPs will need to be increased drastically.
Soundings for this time period suggests SN will be possible when sfc
temps are cool enuf. Still some questions regarding p-types and will
modify as the system approaches.

Temps gradually moderate with mdls in fairly good agreement thru
next Tues. Upper air pattern becomes more zonal with a cdfnt will
bring chance of RA on Sun with another fnt bringing a chance for
TSRA on Wed into Thurs.

Tilly
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Showers moving mainly along I-70 corridor as of 2330z. So KUIN
will remain on far northern fringes of any precipitation this
evening. Main issue could be some mvfr at times there. Further
south light rain with mvfr cigs and vsbys through daybreak then
cigs/vsbys become vfr for remainder of taf forecast period.
Otherwise, winds to persist from the north to northwest through
the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Showers moving mainly along I-70 corridor as of 2330z. Light rain
with mvfr cigs and vsbys through 11z Thursday then cigs/vsbys become vfr
for remainder of taf forecast period. Otherwise, winds to persist
from the north then back to the northwest after 11z Thursday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR Crawford MO-Iron
     MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR Clinton IL-Marion
     IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252341
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
641 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Focus for tonight will be TSRA chances and potential flooding.

Convection allowing mdls are in generally good agreement with
ongoing TSRA intensifying over the next few hours and spreading ewd
reaching the srn portions of the CWA around 00z this evening. Some
training will be possible early in the event. However, by 06z, cells
shud be more progressive and transitioning ewd withe more stratiform
precip behind the leading line thru the morning hours.

This presents a question of how much rainfall will occur overnight.
Believe threat for flooding is not as great as previously thought.
However, with the area receiving precip yesterday, TSRA expected
tonight with stratiform precip expected behind, feel the threat is
still high enuf to keep the watch going.

As for temps, have trended twd the cooler guidance with fropa
tonight.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Precip shud be moving out of the region by 15z Thurs leaving the
remainder of the day dry. With clouds clearing, have trended twd the
warmer guidance with deep mixing expected.

Not much change from the prev forecast.  Mdls are in good agreement
with a strong s/w digging into the region Thurs night into Fri
bringing a cooler airmass into the region. Mdls are now suggesting
light precip with this s/w and have added low PoPs for this time
period. Have kept low for now, but if this signal remains
persistent, these PoPs will need to be increased drastically.
Soundings for this time period suggests SN will be possible when sfc
temps are cool enuf. Still some questions regarding p-types and will
modify as the system approaches.

Temps gradually moderate with mdls in fairly good agreement thru
next Tues. Upper air pattern becomes more zonal with a cdfnt will
bring chance of RA on Sun with another fnt bringing a chance for
TSRA on Wed into Thurs.

Tilly
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Showers moving mainly along I-70 corridor as of 2330z. So KUIN
will remain on far northern fringes of any precipitation this
evening. Main issue could be some mvfr at times there. Further
south light rain with mvfr cigs and vsbys through daybreak then
cigs/vsbys become vfr for remainder of taf forecast period.
Otherwise, winds to persist from the north to northwest through
the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Showers moving mainly along I-70 corridor as of 2330z. Light rain
with mvfr cigs and vsbys through 11z Thursday then cigs/vsbys become vfr
for remainder of taf forecast period. Otherwise, winds to persist
from the north then back to the northwest after 11z Thursday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR Crawford MO-Iron
     MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR Clinton IL-Marion
     IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 252110
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
410 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Focus for tonight will be TSRA chances and potential flooding.

Convection allowing mdls are in generally good agreement with
ongoing TSRA intensifying over the next few hours and spreading ewd
reaching the srn portions of the CWA around 00z this evening. Some
training will be possible early in the event. However, by 06z, cells
shud be more progressive and transitioning ewd withe more stratiform
precip behind the leading line thru the morning hours.

This presents a question of how much rainfall will occur overnight.
Believe threat for flooding is not as great as previously thought.
However, with the area receiving precip yesterday, TSRA expected
tonight with stratiform precip expected behind, feel the threat is
still high enuf to keep the watch going.

As for temps, have trended twd the cooler guidance with fropa
tonight.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Precip shud be moving out of the region by 15z Thurs leaving the
remainder of the day dry. With clouds clearing, have trended twd the
warmer guidance with deep mixing expected.

Not much change from the prev forecast.  Mdls are in good agreement
with a strong s/w digging into the region Thurs night into Fri
bringing a cooler airmass into the region. Mdls are now suggesting
light precip with this s/w and have added low PoPs for this time
period. Have kept low for now, but if this signal remains
persistent, these PoPs will need to be increased drastically.
Soundings for this time period suggests SN will be possible when sfc
temps are cool enuf. Still some questions regarding p-types and will
modify as the system approaches.

Temps gradually moderate with mdls in fairly good agreement thru
next Tues. Upper air pattern becomes more zonal with a cdfnt will
bring chance of RA on Sun with another fnt bringing a chance for
TSRA on Wed into Thurs.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Busy fcst prd with significant system passing thru the center of
the country. A warm front extends from a sfc low across
panhandles of OK/TX to SE ME and sthrn IL on into OH vly.
Meanwhile...a cold front is currently pushing SE thru IA/KS and
has made it into ntrhn MO. The low will track along the sthrn
front and is fcst to move from the sthrn Plains today to the OH
vly tomorrow. These systems will combine with upper lvl energy to
produce widespread rain and TSTMs across the area from this aftn
thru the night and should be pushing east of the STL metro terminals
by 12Z Thursday. IFR stratus continues to erode to the north early
this aftn....extending from MHL to MYJ to PPQ to 3LF to SLO. KUIN
is expected to be on the edge of the clearing this aftn and CIGs
may not dsspt as CIGs are expected to fill in behind the advancing
cold front. May be too optimistic with CIG fcst for KUIN this
aftn/evng. An area of SHRA/TSMS has dvlp across SE KS/SW MO. This
activity is expected to increase in coverage as it moves NE arriving
in KCOU around 21Z-22Z. Precip is expected to continue to expand
to the NE this evng lasting most of the night along and south of
I44 in MO and I70 in IL. CIGs tonight may be lower than fcst as
models indicate IFR CIGs dvlpng...but held off til a start time
can be better established. Model consensus clears any low CIGs out
around 12Z with skies clearing drng the mrng and NNW winds the
rest of the day.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst til 00Z...then a several hr prd of possible TSTMs with
persistent rain the rest of the night. Models indicate the CIG
fcst for tonight may not be low enough with IFR CIGs a possibility.
Any low CIGs that dvlp are expected to clear around 12Z with VFR
conditions expected tomorrow with skies clearing drng the mrng and
NNW winds.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     40  52  34  47 / 100  40  10  10
Quincy          34  48  28  42 /  70   5   5  10
Columbia        37  52  32  48 /  90  10  20  10
Jefferson City  38  52  33  49 /  90  10  20  10
Salem           42  51  32  45 / 100  70   5  10
Farmington      39  51  32  47 / 100  60  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR Crawford MO-Iron
     MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR Clinton IL-Marion
     IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252110
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
410 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Focus for tonight will be TSRA chances and potential flooding.

Convection allowing mdls are in generally good agreement with
ongoing TSRA intensifying over the next few hours and spreading ewd
reaching the srn portions of the CWA around 00z this evening. Some
training will be possible early in the event. However, by 06z, cells
shud be more progressive and transitioning ewd withe more stratiform
precip behind the leading line thru the morning hours.

This presents a question of how much rainfall will occur overnight.
Believe threat for flooding is not as great as previously thought.
However, with the area receiving precip yesterday, TSRA expected
tonight with stratiform precip expected behind, feel the threat is
still high enuf to keep the watch going.

As for temps, have trended twd the cooler guidance with fropa
tonight.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Precip shud be moving out of the region by 15z Thurs leaving the
remainder of the day dry. With clouds clearing, have trended twd the
warmer guidance with deep mixing expected.

Not much change from the prev forecast.  Mdls are in good agreement
with a strong s/w digging into the region Thurs night into Fri
bringing a cooler airmass into the region. Mdls are now suggesting
light precip with this s/w and have added low PoPs for this time
period. Have kept low for now, but if this signal remains
persistent, these PoPs will need to be increased drastically.
Soundings for this time period suggests SN will be possible when sfc
temps are cool enuf. Still some questions regarding p-types and will
modify as the system approaches.

Temps gradually moderate with mdls in fairly good agreement thru
next Tues. Upper air pattern becomes more zonal with a cdfnt will
bring chance of RA on Sun with another fnt bringing a chance for
TSRA on Wed into Thurs.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Busy fcst prd with significant system passing thru the center of
the country. A warm front extends from a sfc low across
panhandles of OK/TX to SE ME and sthrn IL on into OH vly.
Meanwhile...a cold front is currently pushing SE thru IA/KS and
has made it into ntrhn MO. The low will track along the sthrn
front and is fcst to move from the sthrn Plains today to the OH
vly tomorrow. These systems will combine with upper lvl energy to
produce widespread rain and TSTMs across the area from this aftn
thru the night and should be pushing east of the STL metro terminals
by 12Z Thursday. IFR stratus continues to erode to the north early
this aftn....extending from MHL to MYJ to PPQ to 3LF to SLO. KUIN
is expected to be on the edge of the clearing this aftn and CIGs
may not dsspt as CIGs are expected to fill in behind the advancing
cold front. May be too optimistic with CIG fcst for KUIN this
aftn/evng. An area of SHRA/TSMS has dvlp across SE KS/SW MO. This
activity is expected to increase in coverage as it moves NE arriving
in KCOU around 21Z-22Z. Precip is expected to continue to expand
to the NE this evng lasting most of the night along and south of
I44 in MO and I70 in IL. CIGs tonight may be lower than fcst as
models indicate IFR CIGs dvlpng...but held off til a start time
can be better established. Model consensus clears any low CIGs out
around 12Z with skies clearing drng the mrng and NNW winds the
rest of the day.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst til 00Z...then a several hr prd of possible TSTMs with
persistent rain the rest of the night. Models indicate the CIG
fcst for tonight may not be low enough with IFR CIGs a possibility.
Any low CIGs that dvlp are expected to clear around 12Z with VFR
conditions expected tomorrow with skies clearing drng the mrng and
NNW winds.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     40  52  34  47 / 100  40  10  10
Quincy          34  48  28  42 /  70   5   5  10
Columbia        37  52  32  48 /  90  10  20  10
Jefferson City  38  52  33  49 /  90  10  20  10
Salem           42  51  32  45 / 100  70   5  10
Farmington      39  51  32  47 / 100  60  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR Crawford MO-Iron
     MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR Clinton IL-Marion
     IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 251829
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
129 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Primary focus for today is trying to nail down temperatures.
West-northwest wind behind in the wake of the low currently moving
away from the area will continue pushing the cold front south across
the eastern Ozarks this morning.  Meanwhile the wave amplifying over
the eastern Rockies will force another round of cyclogenesis over
northern Texas and the resulting low level circulation will
reinforce southerly flow south of the front.  The big question is
how far will the front retreat to the north as a result of this warm
advection.  Current thinking is that the front will stay south of
the I-70 corridor across the eastern Ozarks today.  Used a blend of
guidance to try to minimize bust potential for temperatures today,
but it ended up being near the warmer MAV for most of the are,
except across far southern zones which should be south of the front
and receive more sunshine than the remainder of the area.  Down
there am forecasting temperatures above guidance in the low to mid
70s.

Attention turns to late this afternoon and evening when warm
advection will produce another round of thunderstorms.  Latest short
range guidance is not very impressive with the instability across
our area.  As yesterday evening showed, lack of instability usually
leads to less severe weather than expected...  So, with that in mind
think the highest severe thunderstorm threat will likely stay across
far southern Missouri and mostly out of our area.  However, models
point a 40-50kt low level jet right at the low level baroclinic zone
right along the I-44/I-64 corridor across Missouri and Illinois.
Tremendous 850mb moisture convergence is the result and models all
print out 2+ inches of QPF .  Needless to say, it looks like it`s
going to rain...and rain hard.  Flash flood watch still looks good.
Decided to extend it to 12Z Thursday morning as a couple of guidance
members keep precip going in the 09-12Z time frame.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Quieter weather still expected for Thursday through Saturday.  May
see some lingering showers over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois Thursday morning, but cooler and drier air will be building
across the area as the longwave trof digs across the central U.S.
and high pressure builds in behind it.  A couple of shortwaves will
dive southeast into the trof Friday night and Saturday night.  The
first looks to bring precip mainly to western Missouri but we may
get clipped by the second wave Friday night into Saturday morning.
Precipitation (if any) looks very light, but there could be some
rain/snow mix for a while before temperatures warm up Saturday
morning.  Speaking of temperatures, it still looks like they`ll be
10 to 15 degrees below normal Thursday through Saturday as the
Canadian high builds down into the Midwest.  A hard freeze still
looks pretty likely Friday morning across northern zones, and across
most of, if not the entire CWFA Saturday morning.

Should see temperatures warm up to near or slightly above normal for
Sunday through Tuesday.  Medium range guidance is still having some
trouble coming to a consensus with the passage of a couple of waves,
an resulting light rain/showers.  Certainly wouldn`t be surprised to
see a few showers Sunday as a weak front moves southeast through the
area; and then again Monday and Tuesday primarily south of I-70 in
the vicinity of the baroclinic zone where the front stalls.  Since
it`s so far out there in the forecast and the signal is so weak,
have stuck to very low chance PoPs.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Busy fcst prd with significant system passing thru the center of
the country. A warm front extends from a sfc low across
panhandles of OK/TX to SE ME and sthrn IL on into OH vly.
Meanwhile...a cold front is currently pushing SE thru IA/KS and
has made it into ntrhn MO. The low will track along the sthrn
front and is fcst to move from the sthrn Plains today to the OH
vly tomorrow. These systems will combine with upper lvl energy to
produce widespread rain and TSTMs across the area from this aftn
thru the night and should be pushing east of the STL metro terminals
by 12Z Thursday. IFR stratus continues to erode to the north early
this aftn....extending from MHL to MYJ to PPQ to 3LF to SLO. KUIN
is expected to be on the edge of the clearing this aftn and CIGs
may not dsspt as CIGs are expected to fill in behind the advancing
cold front. May be too optimistic with CIG fcst for KUIN this
aftn/evng. An area of SHRA/TSMS has dvlp across SE KS/SW MO. This
activity is expected to increase in coverage as it moves NE arriving
in KCOU around 21Z-22Z. Precip is expected to continue to expand
to the NE this evng lasting most of the night along and south of
I44 in MO and I70 in IL. CIGs tonight may be lower than fcst as
models indicate IFR CIGs dvlpng...but held off til a start time
can be better established. Model consensus clears any low CIGs out
around 12Z with skies clearing drng the mrng and NNW winds the
rest of the day.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst til 00Z...then a several hr prd of possible TSTMs with
persistent rain the rest of the night. Models indicate the CIG
fcst for tonight may not be low enough with IFR CIGs a possibility.
Any low CIGs that dvlp are expected to clear around 12Z with VFR
conditions expected tomorrow with skies clearing drng the mrng and
NNW winds.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  40  52  34 /  40  90  20  10
Quincy          55  34  48  28 /  40  60   5   5
Columbia        62  37  52  32 /  70  80   5  20
Jefferson City  69  38  52  33 /  70  90   5  20
Salem           65  42  51  32 /  10 100  40   5
Farmington      71  39  51  32 /  40 100  40  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     morning FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     morning FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St.
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 251829
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
129 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Primary focus for today is trying to nail down temperatures.
West-northwest wind behind in the wake of the low currently moving
away from the area will continue pushing the cold front south across
the eastern Ozarks this morning.  Meanwhile the wave amplifying over
the eastern Rockies will force another round of cyclogenesis over
northern Texas and the resulting low level circulation will
reinforce southerly flow south of the front.  The big question is
how far will the front retreat to the north as a result of this warm
advection.  Current thinking is that the front will stay south of
the I-70 corridor across the eastern Ozarks today.  Used a blend of
guidance to try to minimize bust potential for temperatures today,
but it ended up being near the warmer MAV for most of the are,
except across far southern zones which should be south of the front
and receive more sunshine than the remainder of the area.  Down
there am forecasting temperatures above guidance in the low to mid
70s.

Attention turns to late this afternoon and evening when warm
advection will produce another round of thunderstorms.  Latest short
range guidance is not very impressive with the instability across
our area.  As yesterday evening showed, lack of instability usually
leads to less severe weather than expected...  So, with that in mind
think the highest severe thunderstorm threat will likely stay across
far southern Missouri and mostly out of our area.  However, models
point a 40-50kt low level jet right at the low level baroclinic zone
right along the I-44/I-64 corridor across Missouri and Illinois.
Tremendous 850mb moisture convergence is the result and models all
print out 2+ inches of QPF .  Needless to say, it looks like it`s
going to rain...and rain hard.  Flash flood watch still looks good.
Decided to extend it to 12Z Thursday morning as a couple of guidance
members keep precip going in the 09-12Z time frame.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Quieter weather still expected for Thursday through Saturday.  May
see some lingering showers over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois Thursday morning, but cooler and drier air will be building
across the area as the longwave trof digs across the central U.S.
and high pressure builds in behind it.  A couple of shortwaves will
dive southeast into the trof Friday night and Saturday night.  The
first looks to bring precip mainly to western Missouri but we may
get clipped by the second wave Friday night into Saturday morning.
Precipitation (if any) looks very light, but there could be some
rain/snow mix for a while before temperatures warm up Saturday
morning.  Speaking of temperatures, it still looks like they`ll be
10 to 15 degrees below normal Thursday through Saturday as the
Canadian high builds down into the Midwest.  A hard freeze still
looks pretty likely Friday morning across northern zones, and across
most of, if not the entire CWFA Saturday morning.

Should see temperatures warm up to near or slightly above normal for
Sunday through Tuesday.  Medium range guidance is still having some
trouble coming to a consensus with the passage of a couple of waves,
an resulting light rain/showers.  Certainly wouldn`t be surprised to
see a few showers Sunday as a weak front moves southeast through the
area; and then again Monday and Tuesday primarily south of I-70 in
the vicinity of the baroclinic zone where the front stalls.  Since
it`s so far out there in the forecast and the signal is so weak,
have stuck to very low chance PoPs.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Busy fcst prd with significant system passing thru the center of
the country. A warm front extends from a sfc low across
panhandles of OK/TX to SE ME and sthrn IL on into OH vly.
Meanwhile...a cold front is currently pushing SE thru IA/KS and
has made it into ntrhn MO. The low will track along the sthrn
front and is fcst to move from the sthrn Plains today to the OH
vly tomorrow. These systems will combine with upper lvl energy to
produce widespread rain and TSTMs across the area from this aftn
thru the night and should be pushing east of the STL metro terminals
by 12Z Thursday. IFR stratus continues to erode to the north early
this aftn....extending from MHL to MYJ to PPQ to 3LF to SLO. KUIN
is expected to be on the edge of the clearing this aftn and CIGs
may not dsspt as CIGs are expected to fill in behind the advancing
cold front. May be too optimistic with CIG fcst for KUIN this
aftn/evng. An area of SHRA/TSMS has dvlp across SE KS/SW MO. This
activity is expected to increase in coverage as it moves NE arriving
in KCOU around 21Z-22Z. Precip is expected to continue to expand
to the NE this evng lasting most of the night along and south of
I44 in MO and I70 in IL. CIGs tonight may be lower than fcst as
models indicate IFR CIGs dvlpng...but held off til a start time
can be better established. Model consensus clears any low CIGs out
around 12Z with skies clearing drng the mrng and NNW winds the
rest of the day.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst til 00Z...then a several hr prd of possible TSTMs with
persistent rain the rest of the night. Models indicate the CIG
fcst for tonight may not be low enough with IFR CIGs a possibility.
Any low CIGs that dvlp are expected to clear around 12Z with VFR
conditions expected tomorrow with skies clearing drng the mrng and
NNW winds.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  40  52  34 /  40  90  20  10
Quincy          55  34  48  28 /  40  60   5   5
Columbia        62  37  52  32 /  70  80   5  20
Jefferson City  69  38  52  33 /  70  90   5  20
Salem           65  42  51  32 /  10 100  40   5
Farmington      71  39  51  32 /  40 100  40  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     morning FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     morning FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St.
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251101
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
601 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Primary focus for today is trying to nail down temperatures.
West-northwest wind behind in the wake of the low currently moving
away from the area will continue pushing the cold front south across
the eastern Ozarks this morning.  Meanwhile the wave amplifying over
the eastern Rockies will force another round of cyclogenesis over
northern Texas and the resulting low level circulation will
reinforce southerly flow south of the front.  The big question is
how far will the front retreat to the north as a result of this warm
advection.  Current thinking is that the front will stay south of
the I-70 corridor across the eastern Ozarks today.  Used a blend of
guidance to try to minimize bust potential for temperatures today,
but it ended up being near the warmer MAV for most of the are,
except across far southern zones which should be south of the front
and receive more sunshine than the remainder of the area.  Down
there am forecasting temperatures above guidance in the low to mid
70s.

Attention turns to late this afternoon and evening when warm
advection will produce another round of thunderstorms.  Latest short
range guidance is not very impressive with the instability across
our area.  As yesterday evening showed, lack of instability usually
leads to less severe weather than expected...  So, with that in mind
think the highest severe thunderstorm threat will likely stay across
far southern Missouri and mostly out of our area.  However, models
point a 40-50kt low level jet right at the low level baroclinic zone
right along the I-44/I-64 corridor across Missouri and Illinois.
Tremendous 850mb moisture convergence is the result and models all
print out 2+ inches of QPF .  Needless to say, it looks like it`s
going to rain...and rain hard.  Flash flood watch still looks good.
Decided to extend it to 12Z Thursday morning as a couple of guidance
members keep precip going in the 09-12Z time frame.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Quieter weather still expected for Thursday through Saturday.  May
see some lingering showers over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois Thursday morning, but cooler and drier air will be building
across the area as the longwave trof digs across the central U.S.
and high pressure builds in behind it.  A couple of shortwaves will
dive southeast into the trof Friday night and Saturday night.  The
first looks to bring precip mainly to western Missouri but we may
get clipped by the second wave Friday night into Saturday morning.
Precipitation (if any) looks very light, but there could be some
rain/snow mix for a while before temperatures warm up Saturday
morning.  Speaking of temperatures, it still looks like they`ll be
10 to 15 degrees below normal Thursday through Saturday as the
Canadian high builds down into the Midwest.  A hard freeze still
looks pretty likely Friday morning across northern zones, and across
most of, if not the entire CWFA Saturday morning.

Should see temperatures warm up to near or slightly above normal for
Sunday through Tuesday.  Medium range guidance is still having some
trouble coming to a consensus with the passage of a couple of waves,
an resulting light rain/showers.  Certainly wouldn`t be surprised to
see a few showers Sunday as a weak front moves southeast through the
area; and then again Monday and Tuesday primarily south of I-70 in
the vicinity of the baroclinic zone where the front stalls.  Since
it`s so far out there in the forecast and the signal is so weak,
have stuck to very low chance PoPs.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

MVFR to IFR stratus covers much of the forecast area this morning
with a west/southwest wind around 10KT. Scattering of stratus
should occur this morning along the southern edge which will
include KCOU and St. Louis Metro terminals. KUIN looks to have
stratus hold tough with ceiling slowly rising.

Wind will become light by midday and eventually east/northeast as
main frontal boundary estabilishes itself to our south this
afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop during the afternoon across southwest Missouri and
increase in coverage as they move northeast into central and
eastern Missouri this evening. Lowering and thickening cloud trend
expected with periods of rain overnight. Have forecast MVFR but
IFR certainly possible.

Specifics for KSTL:

Stratus holding its own at this time across terminal, but some
clearing/scattering noted on satellite imagery to the southwest.
Expect some scattering to occur this morning with improving
ceiling conditions. Showers and thunderstorms expected to build
back into the area late this afternoon and evening and continue
overnight. Intial southwest wind will become light and then
northeasterly by this evening. The rain should come to an end by
tomorrow morning with north/northwest wind prevailing on Thursday.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  41  49  31 /  40  90  20  10
Quincy          55  34  45  27 /  50  60   5   5
Columbia        62  37  49  30 /  70  80   5  10
Jefferson City  69  39  51  31 /  80  90   5  10
Salem           65  42  47  31 /  10 100  40   5
Farmington      71  42  48  32 /  40 100  40  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
     Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 251101
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
601 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Primary focus for today is trying to nail down temperatures.
West-northwest wind behind in the wake of the low currently moving
away from the area will continue pushing the cold front south across
the eastern Ozarks this morning.  Meanwhile the wave amplifying over
the eastern Rockies will force another round of cyclogenesis over
northern Texas and the resulting low level circulation will
reinforce southerly flow south of the front.  The big question is
how far will the front retreat to the north as a result of this warm
advection.  Current thinking is that the front will stay south of
the I-70 corridor across the eastern Ozarks today.  Used a blend of
guidance to try to minimize bust potential for temperatures today,
but it ended up being near the warmer MAV for most of the are,
except across far southern zones which should be south of the front
and receive more sunshine than the remainder of the area.  Down
there am forecasting temperatures above guidance in the low to mid
70s.

Attention turns to late this afternoon and evening when warm
advection will produce another round of thunderstorms.  Latest short
range guidance is not very impressive with the instability across
our area.  As yesterday evening showed, lack of instability usually
leads to less severe weather than expected...  So, with that in mind
think the highest severe thunderstorm threat will likely stay across
far southern Missouri and mostly out of our area.  However, models
point a 40-50kt low level jet right at the low level baroclinic zone
right along the I-44/I-64 corridor across Missouri and Illinois.
Tremendous 850mb moisture convergence is the result and models all
print out 2+ inches of QPF .  Needless to say, it looks like it`s
going to rain...and rain hard.  Flash flood watch still looks good.
Decided to extend it to 12Z Thursday morning as a couple of guidance
members keep precip going in the 09-12Z time frame.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Quieter weather still expected for Thursday through Saturday.  May
see some lingering showers over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois Thursday morning, but cooler and drier air will be building
across the area as the longwave trof digs across the central U.S.
and high pressure builds in behind it.  A couple of shortwaves will
dive southeast into the trof Friday night and Saturday night.  The
first looks to bring precip mainly to western Missouri but we may
get clipped by the second wave Friday night into Saturday morning.
Precipitation (if any) looks very light, but there could be some
rain/snow mix for a while before temperatures warm up Saturday
morning.  Speaking of temperatures, it still looks like they`ll be
10 to 15 degrees below normal Thursday through Saturday as the
Canadian high builds down into the Midwest.  A hard freeze still
looks pretty likely Friday morning across northern zones, and across
most of, if not the entire CWFA Saturday morning.

Should see temperatures warm up to near or slightly above normal for
Sunday through Tuesday.  Medium range guidance is still having some
trouble coming to a consensus with the passage of a couple of waves,
an resulting light rain/showers.  Certainly wouldn`t be surprised to
see a few showers Sunday as a weak front moves southeast through the
area; and then again Monday and Tuesday primarily south of I-70 in
the vicinity of the baroclinic zone where the front stalls.  Since
it`s so far out there in the forecast and the signal is so weak,
have stuck to very low chance PoPs.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

MVFR to IFR stratus covers much of the forecast area this morning
with a west/southwest wind around 10KT. Scattering of stratus
should occur this morning along the southern edge which will
include KCOU and St. Louis Metro terminals. KUIN looks to have
stratus hold tough with ceiling slowly rising.

Wind will become light by midday and eventually east/northeast as
main frontal boundary estabilishes itself to our south this
afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop during the afternoon across southwest Missouri and
increase in coverage as they move northeast into central and
eastern Missouri this evening. Lowering and thickening cloud trend
expected with periods of rain overnight. Have forecast MVFR but
IFR certainly possible.

Specifics for KSTL:

Stratus holding its own at this time across terminal, but some
clearing/scattering noted on satellite imagery to the southwest.
Expect some scattering to occur this morning with improving
ceiling conditions. Showers and thunderstorms expected to build
back into the area late this afternoon and evening and continue
overnight. Intial southwest wind will become light and then
northeasterly by this evening. The rain should come to an end by
tomorrow morning with north/northwest wind prevailing on Thursday.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  41  49  31 /  40  90  20  10
Quincy          55  34  45  27 /  50  60   5   5
Columbia        62  37  49  30 /  70  80   5  10
Jefferson City  69  39  51  31 /  80  90   5  10
Salem           65  42  47  31 /  10 100  40   5
Farmington      71  42  48  32 /  40 100  40  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
     Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 250919
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
419 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Primary focus for today is trying to nail down temperatures.
West-northwest wind behind in the wake of the low currently moving
away from the area will continue pushing the cold front south across
the eastern Ozarks this morning.  Meanwhile the wave amplifying over
the eastern Rockies will force another round of cyclogenesis over
northern Texas and the resulting low level circulation will
reinforce southerly flow south of the front.  The big question is
how far will the front retreat to the north as a result of this warm
advection.  Current thinking is that the front will stay south of
the I-70 corridor across the eastern Ozarks today.  Used a blend of
guidance to try to minimize bust potential for temperatures today,
but it ended up being near the warmer MAV for most of the are,
except across far southern zones which should be south of the front
and receive more sunshine than the remainder of the area.  Down
there am forecasting temperatures above guidance in the low to mid
70s.

Attention turns to late this afternoon and evening when warm
advection will produce another round of thunderstorms.  Latest short
range guidance is not very impressive with the instability across
our area.  As yesterday evening showed, lack of instability usually
leads to less severe weather than expected...  So, with that in mind
think the highest severe thunderstorm threat will likely stay across
far southern Missouri and mostly out of our area.  However, models
point a 40-50kt low level jet right at the low level baroclinic zone
right along the I-44/I-64 corridor across Missouri and Illinois.
Tremendous 850mb moisture convergence is the result and models all
print out 2+ inches of QPF .  Needless to say, it looks like it`s
going to rain...and rain hard.  Flash flood watch still looks good.
Decided to extend it to 12Z Thursday morning as a couple of guidance
members keep precip going in the 09-12Z time frame.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Quieter weather still expected for Thursday through Saturday.  May
see some lingering showers over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois Thursday morning, but cooler and drier air will be building
across the area as the longwave trof digs across the central U.S.
and high pressure builds in behind it.  A couple of shortwaves will
dive southeast into the trof Friday night and Saturday night.  The
first looks to bring precip mainly to western Missouri but we may
get clipped by the second wave Friday night into Saturday morning.
Precipitation (if any) looks very light, but there could be some
rain/snow mix for a while before temperatures warm up Saturday
morning.  Speaking of temperatures, it still looks like they`ll be
10 to 15 degrees below normal Thursday through Saturday as the
Canadian high builds down into the Midwest.  A hard freeze still
looks pretty likely Friday morning across northern zones, and across
most of, if not the entire CWFA Saturday morning.

Should see temperatures warm up to near or slightly above normal for
Sunday through Tuesday.  Medium range guidance is still having some
trouble coming to a consensus with the passage of a couple of waves,
an resulting light rain/showers.  Certainly wouldn`t be surprised to
see a few showers Sunday as a weak front moves southeast through the
area; and then again Monday and Tuesday primarily south of I-70 in
the vicinity of the baroclinic zone where the front stalls.  Since
it`s so far out there in the forecast and the signal is so weak,
have stuck to very low chance PoPs.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Showers and thunderstorms to be east of taf sites by 06z
Wednesday. So main issue will be cigs across region as ifr sc deck
slides southeast overnight. Some breaks in overcast, but feel that
cigs will not scatter out til mid to late morning. Some patchy fog
possible as well, so kept mvfr vsby in tafs. During the day today
will see mid and high clouds before next system moves in during
the late afternoon and evening hours. KUIN to be on northern
fringes of precipitation so just have vcnty shower mention there
for now after 02z Thursday. KCOU should see storms move in by 01z
Thursday and STL metro area after 02Z Thursday with better chances
after 05z Thursday. As for winds through the forecast period, west
winds to veer to the northeast late in the day then back to the
north and pickup as system slides along frontal boundary that is
just south of I-70 corridor.

Specifics for KSTL:
Showers and thunderstorms to be east of metro by 06z Wednesday.
So main issue will be cigs across region as ifr sc deck slides
southeast overnight. Some breaks in overcast, but feel that cigs
will not scatter out til late morning. Some patchy fog possible
as well, so kept mvfr vsby in taf. During the day today will see
mid and high clouds before next system moves in during the late
afternoon and evening hours. STL metro area will see precipitation
move in by 02Z Thursday with better chances after 05z Thursday.
As for winds through the forecast period, west winds to veer to
the northeast late in the day then back to the north and pickup as
system slides along frontal boundary that is just south of I-70
corridor.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  41  49  31 /  40  90  20  10
Quincy          55  34  45  27 /  50  60   5   5
Columbia        62  37  49  30 /  70  80   5  10
Jefferson City  69  39  51  31 /  80  90   5  10
Salem           65  42  47  31 /  10 100  40   5
Farmington      71  42  48  32 /  40 100  40  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
     Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 250919
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
419 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Primary focus for today is trying to nail down temperatures.
West-northwest wind behind in the wake of the low currently moving
away from the area will continue pushing the cold front south across
the eastern Ozarks this morning.  Meanwhile the wave amplifying over
the eastern Rockies will force another round of cyclogenesis over
northern Texas and the resulting low level circulation will
reinforce southerly flow south of the front.  The big question is
how far will the front retreat to the north as a result of this warm
advection.  Current thinking is that the front will stay south of
the I-70 corridor across the eastern Ozarks today.  Used a blend of
guidance to try to minimize bust potential for temperatures today,
but it ended up being near the warmer MAV for most of the are,
except across far southern zones which should be south of the front
and receive more sunshine than the remainder of the area.  Down
there am forecasting temperatures above guidance in the low to mid
70s.

Attention turns to late this afternoon and evening when warm
advection will produce another round of thunderstorms.  Latest short
range guidance is not very impressive with the instability across
our area.  As yesterday evening showed, lack of instability usually
leads to less severe weather than expected...  So, with that in mind
think the highest severe thunderstorm threat will likely stay across
far southern Missouri and mostly out of our area.  However, models
point a 40-50kt low level jet right at the low level baroclinic zone
right along the I-44/I-64 corridor across Missouri and Illinois.
Tremendous 850mb moisture convergence is the result and models all
print out 2+ inches of QPF .  Needless to say, it looks like it`s
going to rain...and rain hard.  Flash flood watch still looks good.
Decided to extend it to 12Z Thursday morning as a couple of guidance
members keep precip going in the 09-12Z time frame.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Quieter weather still expected for Thursday through Saturday.  May
see some lingering showers over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois Thursday morning, but cooler and drier air will be building
across the area as the longwave trof digs across the central U.S.
and high pressure builds in behind it.  A couple of shortwaves will
dive southeast into the trof Friday night and Saturday night.  The
first looks to bring precip mainly to western Missouri but we may
get clipped by the second wave Friday night into Saturday morning.
Precipitation (if any) looks very light, but there could be some
rain/snow mix for a while before temperatures warm up Saturday
morning.  Speaking of temperatures, it still looks like they`ll be
10 to 15 degrees below normal Thursday through Saturday as the
Canadian high builds down into the Midwest.  A hard freeze still
looks pretty likely Friday morning across northern zones, and across
most of, if not the entire CWFA Saturday morning.

Should see temperatures warm up to near or slightly above normal for
Sunday through Tuesday.  Medium range guidance is still having some
trouble coming to a consensus with the passage of a couple of waves,
an resulting light rain/showers.  Certainly wouldn`t be surprised to
see a few showers Sunday as a weak front moves southeast through the
area; and then again Monday and Tuesday primarily south of I-70 in
the vicinity of the baroclinic zone where the front stalls.  Since
it`s so far out there in the forecast and the signal is so weak,
have stuck to very low chance PoPs.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Showers and thunderstorms to be east of taf sites by 06z
Wednesday. So main issue will be cigs across region as ifr sc deck
slides southeast overnight. Some breaks in overcast, but feel that
cigs will not scatter out til mid to late morning. Some patchy fog
possible as well, so kept mvfr vsby in tafs. During the day today
will see mid and high clouds before next system moves in during
the late afternoon and evening hours. KUIN to be on northern
fringes of precipitation so just have vcnty shower mention there
for now after 02z Thursday. KCOU should see storms move in by 01z
Thursday and STL metro area after 02Z Thursday with better chances
after 05z Thursday. As for winds through the forecast period, west
winds to veer to the northeast late in the day then back to the
north and pickup as system slides along frontal boundary that is
just south of I-70 corridor.

Specifics for KSTL:
Showers and thunderstorms to be east of metro by 06z Wednesday.
So main issue will be cigs across region as ifr sc deck slides
southeast overnight. Some breaks in overcast, but feel that cigs
will not scatter out til late morning. Some patchy fog possible
as well, so kept mvfr vsby in taf. During the day today will see
mid and high clouds before next system moves in during the late
afternoon and evening hours. STL metro area will see precipitation
move in by 02Z Thursday with better chances after 05z Thursday.
As for winds through the forecast period, west winds to veer to
the northeast late in the day then back to the north and pickup as
system slides along frontal boundary that is just south of I-70
corridor.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  41  49  31 /  40  90  20  10
Quincy          55  34  45  27 /  50  60   5   5
Columbia        62  37  49  30 /  70  80   5  10
Jefferson City  69  39  51  31 /  80  90   5  10
Salem           65  42  47  31 /  10 100  40   5
Farmington      71  42  48  32 /  40 100  40  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
     Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250919
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
419 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Primary focus for today is trying to nail down temperatures.
West-northwest wind behind in the wake of the low currently moving
away from the area will continue pushing the cold front south across
the eastern Ozarks this morning.  Meanwhile the wave amplifying over
the eastern Rockies will force another round of cyclogenesis over
northern Texas and the resulting low level circulation will
reinforce southerly flow south of the front.  The big question is
how far will the front retreat to the north as a result of this warm
advection.  Current thinking is that the front will stay south of
the I-70 corridor across the eastern Ozarks today.  Used a blend of
guidance to try to minimize bust potential for temperatures today,
but it ended up being near the warmer MAV for most of the are,
except across far southern zones which should be south of the front
and receive more sunshine than the remainder of the area.  Down
there am forecasting temperatures above guidance in the low to mid
70s.

Attention turns to late this afternoon and evening when warm
advection will produce another round of thunderstorms.  Latest short
range guidance is not very impressive with the instability across
our area.  As yesterday evening showed, lack of instability usually
leads to less severe weather than expected...  So, with that in mind
think the highest severe thunderstorm threat will likely stay across
far southern Missouri and mostly out of our area.  However, models
point a 40-50kt low level jet right at the low level baroclinic zone
right along the I-44/I-64 corridor across Missouri and Illinois.
Tremendous 850mb moisture convergence is the result and models all
print out 2+ inches of QPF .  Needless to say, it looks like it`s
going to rain...and rain hard.  Flash flood watch still looks good.
Decided to extend it to 12Z Thursday morning as a couple of guidance
members keep precip going in the 09-12Z time frame.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Quieter weather still expected for Thursday through Saturday.  May
see some lingering showers over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois Thursday morning, but cooler and drier air will be building
across the area as the longwave trof digs across the central U.S.
and high pressure builds in behind it.  A couple of shortwaves will
dive southeast into the trof Friday night and Saturday night.  The
first looks to bring precip mainly to western Missouri but we may
get clipped by the second wave Friday night into Saturday morning.
Precipitation (if any) looks very light, but there could be some
rain/snow mix for a while before temperatures warm up Saturday
morning.  Speaking of temperatures, it still looks like they`ll be
10 to 15 degrees below normal Thursday through Saturday as the
Canadian high builds down into the Midwest.  A hard freeze still
looks pretty likely Friday morning across northern zones, and across
most of, if not the entire CWFA Saturday morning.

Should see temperatures warm up to near or slightly above normal for
Sunday through Tuesday.  Medium range guidance is still having some
trouble coming to a consensus with the passage of a couple of waves,
an resulting light rain/showers.  Certainly wouldn`t be surprised to
see a few showers Sunday as a weak front moves southeast through the
area; and then again Monday and Tuesday primarily south of I-70 in
the vicinity of the baroclinic zone where the front stalls.  Since
it`s so far out there in the forecast and the signal is so weak,
have stuck to very low chance PoPs.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Showers and thunderstorms to be east of taf sites by 06z
Wednesday. So main issue will be cigs across region as ifr sc deck
slides southeast overnight. Some breaks in overcast, but feel that
cigs will not scatter out til mid to late morning. Some patchy fog
possible as well, so kept mvfr vsby in tafs. During the day today
will see mid and high clouds before next system moves in during
the late afternoon and evening hours. KUIN to be on northern
fringes of precipitation so just have vcnty shower mention there
for now after 02z Thursday. KCOU should see storms move in by 01z
Thursday and STL metro area after 02Z Thursday with better chances
after 05z Thursday. As for winds through the forecast period, west
winds to veer to the northeast late in the day then back to the
north and pickup as system slides along frontal boundary that is
just south of I-70 corridor.

Specifics for KSTL:
Showers and thunderstorms to be east of metro by 06z Wednesday.
So main issue will be cigs across region as ifr sc deck slides
southeast overnight. Some breaks in overcast, but feel that cigs
will not scatter out til late morning. Some patchy fog possible
as well, so kept mvfr vsby in taf. During the day today will see
mid and high clouds before next system moves in during the late
afternoon and evening hours. STL metro area will see precipitation
move in by 02Z Thursday with better chances after 05z Thursday.
As for winds through the forecast period, west winds to veer to
the northeast late in the day then back to the north and pickup as
system slides along frontal boundary that is just south of I-70
corridor.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  41  49  31 /  40  90  20  10
Quincy          55  34  45  27 /  50  60   5   5
Columbia        62  37  49  30 /  70  80   5  10
Jefferson City  69  39  51  31 /  80  90   5  10
Salem           65  42  47  31 /  10 100  40   5
Farmington      71  42  48  32 /  40 100  40  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
     Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250919
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
419 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Primary focus for today is trying to nail down temperatures.
West-northwest wind behind in the wake of the low currently moving
away from the area will continue pushing the cold front south across
the eastern Ozarks this morning.  Meanwhile the wave amplifying over
the eastern Rockies will force another round of cyclogenesis over
northern Texas and the resulting low level circulation will
reinforce southerly flow south of the front.  The big question is
how far will the front retreat to the north as a result of this warm
advection.  Current thinking is that the front will stay south of
the I-70 corridor across the eastern Ozarks today.  Used a blend of
guidance to try to minimize bust potential for temperatures today,
but it ended up being near the warmer MAV for most of the are,
except across far southern zones which should be south of the front
and receive more sunshine than the remainder of the area.  Down
there am forecasting temperatures above guidance in the low to mid
70s.

Attention turns to late this afternoon and evening when warm
advection will produce another round of thunderstorms.  Latest short
range guidance is not very impressive with the instability across
our area.  As yesterday evening showed, lack of instability usually
leads to less severe weather than expected...  So, with that in mind
think the highest severe thunderstorm threat will likely stay across
far southern Missouri and mostly out of our area.  However, models
point a 40-50kt low level jet right at the low level baroclinic zone
right along the I-44/I-64 corridor across Missouri and Illinois.
Tremendous 850mb moisture convergence is the result and models all
print out 2+ inches of QPF .  Needless to say, it looks like it`s
going to rain...and rain hard.  Flash flood watch still looks good.
Decided to extend it to 12Z Thursday morning as a couple of guidance
members keep precip going in the 09-12Z time frame.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Quieter weather still expected for Thursday through Saturday.  May
see some lingering showers over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois Thursday morning, but cooler and drier air will be building
across the area as the longwave trof digs across the central U.S.
and high pressure builds in behind it.  A couple of shortwaves will
dive southeast into the trof Friday night and Saturday night.  The
first looks to bring precip mainly to western Missouri but we may
get clipped by the second wave Friday night into Saturday morning.
Precipitation (if any) looks very light, but there could be some
rain/snow mix for a while before temperatures warm up Saturday
morning.  Speaking of temperatures, it still looks like they`ll be
10 to 15 degrees below normal Thursday through Saturday as the
Canadian high builds down into the Midwest.  A hard freeze still
looks pretty likely Friday morning across northern zones, and across
most of, if not the entire CWFA Saturday morning.

Should see temperatures warm up to near or slightly above normal for
Sunday through Tuesday.  Medium range guidance is still having some
trouble coming to a consensus with the passage of a couple of waves,
an resulting light rain/showers.  Certainly wouldn`t be surprised to
see a few showers Sunday as a weak front moves southeast through the
area; and then again Monday and Tuesday primarily south of I-70 in
the vicinity of the baroclinic zone where the front stalls.  Since
it`s so far out there in the forecast and the signal is so weak,
have stuck to very low chance PoPs.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Showers and thunderstorms to be east of taf sites by 06z
Wednesday. So main issue will be cigs across region as ifr sc deck
slides southeast overnight. Some breaks in overcast, but feel that
cigs will not scatter out til mid to late morning. Some patchy fog
possible as well, so kept mvfr vsby in tafs. During the day today
will see mid and high clouds before next system moves in during
the late afternoon and evening hours. KUIN to be on northern
fringes of precipitation so just have vcnty shower mention there
for now after 02z Thursday. KCOU should see storms move in by 01z
Thursday and STL metro area after 02Z Thursday with better chances
after 05z Thursday. As for winds through the forecast period, west
winds to veer to the northeast late in the day then back to the
north and pickup as system slides along frontal boundary that is
just south of I-70 corridor.

Specifics for KSTL:
Showers and thunderstorms to be east of metro by 06z Wednesday.
So main issue will be cigs across region as ifr sc deck slides
southeast overnight. Some breaks in overcast, but feel that cigs
will not scatter out til late morning. Some patchy fog possible
as well, so kept mvfr vsby in taf. During the day today will see
mid and high clouds before next system moves in during the late
afternoon and evening hours. STL metro area will see precipitation
move in by 02Z Thursday with better chances after 05z Thursday.
As for winds through the forecast period, west winds to veer to
the northeast late in the day then back to the north and pickup as
system slides along frontal boundary that is just south of I-70
corridor.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  41  49  31 /  40  90  20  10
Quincy          55  34  45  27 /  50  60   5   5
Columbia        62  37  49  30 /  70  80   5  10
Jefferson City  69  39  51  31 /  80  90   5  10
Salem           65  42  47  31 /  10 100  40   5
Farmington      71  42  48  32 /  40 100  40  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
     Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 250843
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
343 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Primary focus for today is trying to nail down temperatures.
West-northwest wind behind in the wake of the low currently moving
away from the area will continue pushing the cold front south across
the eastern Ozarks this morning.  Meanwhile the wave amplifying over
the eastern Rockies will force another round of cyclogenesis over
northern Texas and the resulting low level circulation will
reinforce southerly flow south of the front.  The big question is
how far will the front retreat to the north as a result of this warm
advection.  Current thinking is that the front will stay south of
the I-70 corridor across the eastern Ozarks today.  Used a blend of
guidance to try to minimize bust potential for temperatures today,
but it ended up being near the warmer MAV for most of the are,
except across far southern zones which should be south of the front
and receive more sunshine than the remainder of the area.  Down
there am forecasting temperatures above guidance in the low to mid
70s.

Attention turns to late this afternoon and evening when warm
advection will produce another round of thunderstorms.  Latest short
range guidance is not very impressive with the instability across
our area.  As yesterday evening showed, lack of instability usually
leads to less severe weather than expected...  So, with that in mind
think the highest severe thunderstorm threat will likely stay across
far southern Missouri and mostly out of our area.  However, models
point a 40-50kt low level jet right at the low level baroclinic zone
right along the I-44/I-64 corridor across Missouri and Illinois.
Tremendous 850mb moisture convergence is the result and models all
print out 2+ inches of QPF .  Needless to say, it looks like it`s
going to rain...and rain hard.  Flash flood watch still looks good.
Decided to extend it to 12Z Thursday morning as a couple of guidance
members keep precip going in the 09-12Z time frame.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

The next active period will unfold during the later part of
Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night. The cold front
will be stationary across southern IL to near the MO/AR border at
12z and will once again lift northward during the day into
southeast MO with convective development expected in the vicinity
of the front mid-late afternoon. Shear and instability suggests
the potential for organized severe storms across the southeast
third of the CWA from late afternoon into the evening. Significant
large scale forcing and mid level frontogenetical forcing on
Wednesday night will also contribute to extensive precipitation
within the cool air well to the north of the front, with the LLJ
promoting extensive thunderstorms along and ahead of the front and
for a 100 mile or so wide corridor on the cool side of the front.
There is a decent threat of some heavy rainfall within this area
across southeast Missouri and southern IL due to persistent
thunderstorms and high convective rainfall rates and thus I have
issued a flash flood watch for Wednesday night.

Some lingering rain may impact portions of east central and southeast
MO and southern IL on Thursday morning, otherwise the main story
will be much cool weather from Thursday into Saturday with well
below average temperatures. A northwest flow short wave may even
bring some precipitation to central and southeast sections of the
MO Friday night into Saturday, some of which could be snow.

A warm-up is on tap beginning on Sunday. Despite another cold
front passage on Sunday night, temperatures Sunday into early next
week look at least average for late March.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Showers and thunderstorms to be east of taf sites by 06z
Wednesday. So main issue will be cigs across region as ifr sc deck
slides southeast overnight. Some breaks in overcast, but feel that
cigs will not scatter out til mid to late morning. Some patchy fog
possible as well, so kept mvfr vsby in tafs. During the day today
will see mid and high clouds before next system moves in during
the late afternoon and evening hours. KUIN to be on northern
fringes of precipitation so just have vcnty shower mention there
for now after 02z Thursday. KCOU should see storms move in by 01z
Thursday and STL metro area after 02Z Thursday with better chances
after 05z Thursday. As for winds through the forecast period, west
winds to veer to the northeast late in the day then back to the
north and pickup as system slides along frontal boundary that is
just south of I-70 corridor.

Specifics for KSTL:
Showers and thunderstorms to be east of metro by 06z Wednesday.
So main issue will be cigs across region as ifr sc deck slides
southeast overnight. Some breaks in overcast, but feel that cigs
will not scatter out til late morning. Some patchy fog possible
as well, so kept mvfr vsby in taf. During the day today will see
mid and high clouds before next system moves in during the late
afternoon and evening hours. STL metro area will see precipitation
move in by 02Z Thursday with better chances after 05z Thursday.
As for winds through the forecast period, west winds to veer to
the northeast late in the day then back to the north and pickup as
system slides along frontal boundary that is just south of I-70
corridor.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  41  49  31 /  40  90  20  10
Quincy          55  34  45  27 /  50  60   5   5
Columbia        62  37  49  30 /  70  80   5  10
Jefferson City  69  39  51  31 /  80  90   5  10
Salem           65  42  47  31 /  10 100  40   5
Farmington      71  42  48  32 /  40 100  40  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
     Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250843
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
343 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Primary focus for today is trying to nail down temperatures.
West-northwest wind behind in the wake of the low currently moving
away from the area will continue pushing the cold front south across
the eastern Ozarks this morning.  Meanwhile the wave amplifying over
the eastern Rockies will force another round of cyclogenesis over
northern Texas and the resulting low level circulation will
reinforce southerly flow south of the front.  The big question is
how far will the front retreat to the north as a result of this warm
advection.  Current thinking is that the front will stay south of
the I-70 corridor across the eastern Ozarks today.  Used a blend of
guidance to try to minimize bust potential for temperatures today,
but it ended up being near the warmer MAV for most of the are,
except across far southern zones which should be south of the front
and receive more sunshine than the remainder of the area.  Down
there am forecasting temperatures above guidance in the low to mid
70s.

Attention turns to late this afternoon and evening when warm
advection will produce another round of thunderstorms.  Latest short
range guidance is not very impressive with the instability across
our area.  As yesterday evening showed, lack of instability usually
leads to less severe weather than expected...  So, with that in mind
think the highest severe thunderstorm threat will likely stay across
far southern Missouri and mostly out of our area.  However, models
point a 40-50kt low level jet right at the low level baroclinic zone
right along the I-44/I-64 corridor across Missouri and Illinois.
Tremendous 850mb moisture convergence is the result and models all
print out 2+ inches of QPF .  Needless to say, it looks like it`s
going to rain...and rain hard.  Flash flood watch still looks good.
Decided to extend it to 12Z Thursday morning as a couple of guidance
members keep precip going in the 09-12Z time frame.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

The next active period will unfold during the later part of
Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night. The cold front
will be stationary across southern IL to near the MO/AR border at
12z and will once again lift northward during the day into
southeast MO with convective development expected in the vicinity
of the front mid-late afternoon. Shear and instability suggests
the potential for organized severe storms across the southeast
third of the CWA from late afternoon into the evening. Significant
large scale forcing and mid level frontogenetical forcing on
Wednesday night will also contribute to extensive precipitation
within the cool air well to the north of the front, with the LLJ
promoting extensive thunderstorms along and ahead of the front and
for a 100 mile or so wide corridor on the cool side of the front.
There is a decent threat of some heavy rainfall within this area
across southeast Missouri and southern IL due to persistent
thunderstorms and high convective rainfall rates and thus I have
issued a flash flood watch for Wednesday night.

Some lingering rain may impact portions of east central and southeast
MO and southern IL on Thursday morning, otherwise the main story
will be much cool weather from Thursday into Saturday with well
below average temperatures. A northwest flow short wave may even
bring some precipitation to central and southeast sections of the
MO Friday night into Saturday, some of which could be snow.

A warm-up is on tap beginning on Sunday. Despite another cold
front passage on Sunday night, temperatures Sunday into early next
week look at least average for late March.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Showers and thunderstorms to be east of taf sites by 06z
Wednesday. So main issue will be cigs across region as ifr sc deck
slides southeast overnight. Some breaks in overcast, but feel that
cigs will not scatter out til mid to late morning. Some patchy fog
possible as well, so kept mvfr vsby in tafs. During the day today
will see mid and high clouds before next system moves in during
the late afternoon and evening hours. KUIN to be on northern
fringes of precipitation so just have vcnty shower mention there
for now after 02z Thursday. KCOU should see storms move in by 01z
Thursday and STL metro area after 02Z Thursday with better chances
after 05z Thursday. As for winds through the forecast period, west
winds to veer to the northeast late in the day then back to the
north and pickup as system slides along frontal boundary that is
just south of I-70 corridor.

Specifics for KSTL:
Showers and thunderstorms to be east of metro by 06z Wednesday.
So main issue will be cigs across region as ifr sc deck slides
southeast overnight. Some breaks in overcast, but feel that cigs
will not scatter out til late morning. Some patchy fog possible
as well, so kept mvfr vsby in taf. During the day today will see
mid and high clouds before next system moves in during the late
afternoon and evening hours. STL metro area will see precipitation
move in by 02Z Thursday with better chances after 05z Thursday.
As for winds through the forecast period, west winds to veer to
the northeast late in the day then back to the north and pickup as
system slides along frontal boundary that is just south of I-70
corridor.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  41  49  31 /  40  90  20  10
Quincy          55  34  45  27 /  50  60   5   5
Columbia        62  37  49  30 /  70  80   5  10
Jefferson City  69  39  51  31 /  80  90   5  10
Salem           65  42  47  31 /  10 100  40   5
Farmington      71  42  48  32 /  40 100  40  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
     Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 250843
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
343 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Primary focus for today is trying to nail down temperatures.
West-northwest wind behind in the wake of the low currently moving
away from the area will continue pushing the cold front south across
the eastern Ozarks this morning.  Meanwhile the wave amplifying over
the eastern Rockies will force another round of cyclogenesis over
northern Texas and the resulting low level circulation will
reinforce southerly flow south of the front.  The big question is
how far will the front retreat to the north as a result of this warm
advection.  Current thinking is that the front will stay south of
the I-70 corridor across the eastern Ozarks today.  Used a blend of
guidance to try to minimize bust potential for temperatures today,
but it ended up being near the warmer MAV for most of the are,
except across far southern zones which should be south of the front
and receive more sunshine than the remainder of the area.  Down
there am forecasting temperatures above guidance in the low to mid
70s.

Attention turns to late this afternoon and evening when warm
advection will produce another round of thunderstorms.  Latest short
range guidance is not very impressive with the instability across
our area.  As yesterday evening showed, lack of instability usually
leads to less severe weather than expected...  So, with that in mind
think the highest severe thunderstorm threat will likely stay across
far southern Missouri and mostly out of our area.  However, models
point a 40-50kt low level jet right at the low level baroclinic zone
right along the I-44/I-64 corridor across Missouri and Illinois.
Tremendous 850mb moisture convergence is the result and models all
print out 2+ inches of QPF .  Needless to say, it looks like it`s
going to rain...and rain hard.  Flash flood watch still looks good.
Decided to extend it to 12Z Thursday morning as a couple of guidance
members keep precip going in the 09-12Z time frame.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

The next active period will unfold during the later part of
Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night. The cold front
will be stationary across southern IL to near the MO/AR border at
12z and will once again lift northward during the day into
southeast MO with convective development expected in the vicinity
of the front mid-late afternoon. Shear and instability suggests
the potential for organized severe storms across the southeast
third of the CWA from late afternoon into the evening. Significant
large scale forcing and mid level frontogenetical forcing on
Wednesday night will also contribute to extensive precipitation
within the cool air well to the north of the front, with the LLJ
promoting extensive thunderstorms along and ahead of the front and
for a 100 mile or so wide corridor on the cool side of the front.
There is a decent threat of some heavy rainfall within this area
across southeast Missouri and southern IL due to persistent
thunderstorms and high convective rainfall rates and thus I have
issued a flash flood watch for Wednesday night.

Some lingering rain may impact portions of east central and southeast
MO and southern IL on Thursday morning, otherwise the main story
will be much cool weather from Thursday into Saturday with well
below average temperatures. A northwest flow short wave may even
bring some precipitation to central and southeast sections of the
MO Friday night into Saturday, some of which could be snow.

A warm-up is on tap beginning on Sunday. Despite another cold
front passage on Sunday night, temperatures Sunday into early next
week look at least average for late March.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Showers and thunderstorms to be east of taf sites by 06z
Wednesday. So main issue will be cigs across region as ifr sc deck
slides southeast overnight. Some breaks in overcast, but feel that
cigs will not scatter out til mid to late morning. Some patchy fog
possible as well, so kept mvfr vsby in tafs. During the day today
will see mid and high clouds before next system moves in during
the late afternoon and evening hours. KUIN to be on northern
fringes of precipitation so just have vcnty shower mention there
for now after 02z Thursday. KCOU should see storms move in by 01z
Thursday and STL metro area after 02Z Thursday with better chances
after 05z Thursday. As for winds through the forecast period, west
winds to veer to the northeast late in the day then back to the
north and pickup as system slides along frontal boundary that is
just south of I-70 corridor.

Specifics for KSTL:
Showers and thunderstorms to be east of metro by 06z Wednesday.
So main issue will be cigs across region as ifr sc deck slides
southeast overnight. Some breaks in overcast, but feel that cigs
will not scatter out til late morning. Some patchy fog possible
as well, so kept mvfr vsby in taf. During the day today will see
mid and high clouds before next system moves in during the late
afternoon and evening hours. STL metro area will see precipitation
move in by 02Z Thursday with better chances after 05z Thursday.
As for winds through the forecast period, west winds to veer to
the northeast late in the day then back to the north and pickup as
system slides along frontal boundary that is just south of I-70
corridor.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  41  49  31 /  40  90  20  10
Quincy          55  34  45  27 /  50  60   5   5
Columbia        62  37  49  30 /  70  80   5  10
Jefferson City  69  39  51  31 /  80  90   5  10
Salem           65  42  47  31 /  10 100  40   5
Farmington      71  42  48  32 /  40 100  40  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
     Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250445
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1145 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Updated the forecast earlier to allow severe thunderstorm watch to
expire for central MO. Showers and thunderstorms moving quickly
to the east and should be east of Mississippi River by midnight.
As for temperatures, could still see temps rise a little bit in
warm sector as surface low, currently between STL and UIN, lifts
northeast towards great lakes region. Otherwise, lows will be
in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Will send out one last update before
midnight to freshen wording.

Byrd
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Convective initiation has commenced within the last 45 minutes across
southeastern KS ahead of the surface low/warm front intersection
and south along the dryline as large scale ascent associated with
the potent short wave trof currently in central KS spreads across
that region. All the short term guidance and CAM show an upswing
in convection through 00z as the surface low tracks east-northeast
into central MO. Present indications are the surface low will
track just north of St. Louis and into central IL by 06z, with the
warm front lifting northward in the process allowing a narrow
wedge of instability to advance into mainly central/southern parts
of the area. While showers and thunderstorms will spread across
the bulk of the area due to strong large scale ascent with the
short wave, the severe threat will primarily be limited to just
north of the warm front and into the warm sector. This will be
greatest in central MO this evening, and despite the lifting warm
front, the instability will diminish with eastward extent limiting
the severe weather potential over far eastern MO and into IL. All
the showers and storms should exit the area by 07z or so as the
surface low moves quickly towards the Great Lakes and cold front
advances.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

The next active period will unfold during the later part of
Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night. The cold front
will be stationary across southern IL to near the MO/AR border at
12z and will once again lift northward during the day into
southeast MO with convective development expected in the vicinity
of the front mid-late afternoon. Shear and instability suggests
the potential for organized severe storms across the southeast
third of the CWA from late afternoon into the evening. Significant
large scale forcing and mid level frontogenetical forcing on
Wednesday night will also contribute to extensive precipitation
within the cool air well to the north of the front, with the LLJ
promoting extensive thunderstorms along and ahead of the front and
for a 100 mile or so wide corridor on the cool side of the front.
There is a decent threat of some heavy rainfall within this area
across southeast Missouri and southern IL due to persistent
thunderstorms and high convective rainfall rates and thus I have
issued a flash flood watch for Wednesday night.

Some lingering rain may impact portions of east central and southeast
MO and southern IL on Thursday morning, otherwise the main story
will be much cool weather from Thursday into Saturday with well
below average temperatures. A northwest flow short wave may even
bring some precipitation to central and southeast sections of the
MO Friday night into Saturday, some of which could be snow.

A warm-up is on tap beginning on Sunday. Despite another cold
front passage on Sunday night, temperatures Sunday into early next
week look at least average for late March.

Glass
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Showers and thunderstorms to be east of taf sites by 06z
Wednesday. So main issue will be cigs across region as ifr sc deck
slides southeast overnight. Some breaks in overcast, but feel that
cigs will not scatter out til mid to late morning. Some patchy fog
possible as well, so kept mvfr vsby in tafs. During the day today
will see mid and high clouds before next system moves in during
the late afternoon and evening hours. KUIN to be on northern
fringes of precipitation so just have vcnty shower mention there
for now after 02z Thursday. KCOU should see storms move in by 01z
Thursday and STL metro area after 02Z Thursday with better chances
after 05z Thursday. As for winds through the forecast period, west
winds to veer to the northeast late in the day then back to the
north and pickup as system slides along frontal boundary that is
just south of I-70 corridor.

Specifics for KSTL:
Showers and thunderstorms to be east of metro by 06z Wednesday.
So main issue will be cigs across region as ifr sc deck slides
southeast overnight. Some breaks in overcast, but feel that cigs
will not scatter out til late morning. Some patchy fog possible
as well, so kept mvfr vsby in taf. During the day today will see
mid and high clouds before next system moves in during the late
afternoon and evening hours. STL metro area will see precipitation
move in by 02Z Thursday with better chances after 05z Thursday.
As for winds through the forecast period, west winds to veer to
the northeast late in the day then back to the north and pickup as
system slides along frontal boundary that is just south of I-70
corridor.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St.
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250445
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1145 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Updated the forecast earlier to allow severe thunderstorm watch to
expire for central MO. Showers and thunderstorms moving quickly
to the east and should be east of Mississippi River by midnight.
As for temperatures, could still see temps rise a little bit in
warm sector as surface low, currently between STL and UIN, lifts
northeast towards great lakes region. Otherwise, lows will be
in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Will send out one last update before
midnight to freshen wording.

Byrd
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Convective initiation has commenced within the last 45 minutes across
southeastern KS ahead of the surface low/warm front intersection
and south along the dryline as large scale ascent associated with
the potent short wave trof currently in central KS spreads across
that region. All the short term guidance and CAM show an upswing
in convection through 00z as the surface low tracks east-northeast
into central MO. Present indications are the surface low will
track just north of St. Louis and into central IL by 06z, with the
warm front lifting northward in the process allowing a narrow
wedge of instability to advance into mainly central/southern parts
of the area. While showers and thunderstorms will spread across
the bulk of the area due to strong large scale ascent with the
short wave, the severe threat will primarily be limited to just
north of the warm front and into the warm sector. This will be
greatest in central MO this evening, and despite the lifting warm
front, the instability will diminish with eastward extent limiting
the severe weather potential over far eastern MO and into IL. All
the showers and storms should exit the area by 07z or so as the
surface low moves quickly towards the Great Lakes and cold front
advances.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

The next active period will unfold during the later part of
Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night. The cold front
will be stationary across southern IL to near the MO/AR border at
12z and will once again lift northward during the day into
southeast MO with convective development expected in the vicinity
of the front mid-late afternoon. Shear and instability suggests
the potential for organized severe storms across the southeast
third of the CWA from late afternoon into the evening. Significant
large scale forcing and mid level frontogenetical forcing on
Wednesday night will also contribute to extensive precipitation
within the cool air well to the north of the front, with the LLJ
promoting extensive thunderstorms along and ahead of the front and
for a 100 mile or so wide corridor on the cool side of the front.
There is a decent threat of some heavy rainfall within this area
across southeast Missouri and southern IL due to persistent
thunderstorms and high convective rainfall rates and thus I have
issued a flash flood watch for Wednesday night.

Some lingering rain may impact portions of east central and southeast
MO and southern IL on Thursday morning, otherwise the main story
will be much cool weather from Thursday into Saturday with well
below average temperatures. A northwest flow short wave may even
bring some precipitation to central and southeast sections of the
MO Friday night into Saturday, some of which could be snow.

A warm-up is on tap beginning on Sunday. Despite another cold
front passage on Sunday night, temperatures Sunday into early next
week look at least average for late March.

Glass
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Showers and thunderstorms to be east of taf sites by 06z
Wednesday. So main issue will be cigs across region as ifr sc deck
slides southeast overnight. Some breaks in overcast, but feel that
cigs will not scatter out til mid to late morning. Some patchy fog
possible as well, so kept mvfr vsby in tafs. During the day today
will see mid and high clouds before next system moves in during
the late afternoon and evening hours. KUIN to be on northern
fringes of precipitation so just have vcnty shower mention there
for now after 02z Thursday. KCOU should see storms move in by 01z
Thursday and STL metro area after 02Z Thursday with better chances
after 05z Thursday. As for winds through the forecast period, west
winds to veer to the northeast late in the day then back to the
north and pickup as system slides along frontal boundary that is
just south of I-70 corridor.

Specifics for KSTL:
Showers and thunderstorms to be east of metro by 06z Wednesday.
So main issue will be cigs across region as ifr sc deck slides
southeast overnight. Some breaks in overcast, but feel that cigs
will not scatter out til late morning. Some patchy fog possible
as well, so kept mvfr vsby in taf. During the day today will see
mid and high clouds before next system moves in during the late
afternoon and evening hours. STL metro area will see precipitation
move in by 02Z Thursday with better chances after 05z Thursday.
As for winds through the forecast period, west winds to veer to
the northeast late in the day then back to the north and pickup as
system slides along frontal boundary that is just south of I-70
corridor.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St.
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250122
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
822 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 820 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Present indications are the severe weather threat is fairly low
and isolated. The warm front remains well to the south drapped
from south of Paducah across Reynolds County and into the surface
low near Lake of the Ozarks. Storms thus far have been elevated
with weak values of MUCAPE, and majority of any hail reports have
been pea up to half inch. Current thinking is the surface low will
move pretty close to St. Louis. If anything severe materializes
it should be elevated and isolated consisting of marginally
severe hail.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Convective initiation has commenced within the last 45 minutes across
southeastern KS ahead of the surface low/warm front intersection
and south along the dryline as large scale ascent associated with
the potent short wave trof currently in central KS spreads across
that region. All the short term guidance and CAM show an upswing
in convection through 00z as the surface low tracks east-northeast
into central MO. Present indications are the surface low will
track just north of St. Louis and into central IL by 06z, with the
warm front lifting northward in the process allowing a narrow
wedge of instability to advance into mainly central/southern parts
of the area. While showers and thunderstorms will spread across
the bulk of the area due to strong large scale ascent with the
short wave, the severe threat will primarily be limited to just
north of the warm front and into the warm sector. This will be
greatest in central MO this evening, and despite the lifting warm
front, the instability will diminish with eastward extent limiting
the severe weather potential over far eastern MO and into IL. All
the showers and storms should exit the area by 07z or so as the
surface low moves quickly towards the Great Lakes and cold front
advances.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

The next active period will unfold during the later part of
Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night. The cold front
will be stationary across southern IL to near the MO/AR border at
12z and will once again lift northward during the day into
southeast MO with convective development expected in the vicinity
of the front mid-late afternoon. Shear and instability suggests
the potential for organized severe storms across the southeast
third of the CWA from late afternoon into the evening. Significant
large scale forcing and mid level frontogenetical forcing on
Wednesday night will also contribute to extensive precipitation
within the cool air well to the north of the front, with the LLJ
promoting extensive thunderstorms along and ahead of the front and
for a 100 mile or so wide corridor on the cool side of the front.
There is a decent threat of some heavy rainfall within this area
across southeast Missouri and southern IL due to persistent
thunderstorms and high convective rainfall rates and thus I have
issued a flash flood watch for Wednesday night.

Some lingering rain may impact portions of east central and southeast
MO and southern IL on Thursday morning, otherwise the main story
will be much cool weather from Thursday into Saturday with well
below average temperatures. A northwest flow short wave may even
bring some precipitation to central and southeast sections of the
MO Friday night into Saturday, some of which could be snow.

A warm-up is on tap beginning on Sunday. Despite another cold
front passage on Sunday night, temperatures Sunday into early next
week look at least average for late March.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

A line of convection over western MO, ahead of an upper level
disturbance over eastern KS and a surface low over southwest MO,
will move eastward through COU from 00-02Z, and through the rest
of the taf sites from 02-05Z this evening. Persistent low level
cloud ceiling around 1000 feet in UIN may continue this evening.
The low level clouds should finally clear out late tonight, but
there will likely be some fog late tonight and early Wednesday
morning as the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate by
late Wednesday morning. Just mid-high level clouds are expected
Wednesday afternoon. E-sely surface wind will veer around to a
w-swly direction late this evening after the passage of the
surface low. The surface wind will back around to a s-swly
direction by late Wednesday morning. The surface wind will become
nly in UIN and COU Wednesday afternoon after the passage of a cold
front.

Specifics for KSTL: Scattered to broken clouds around 1000-1500
feet are expected this evening.  Showers and thunderstorms will
move through STL between 02-06Z this evening. The low level cloud
ceiling should clear out late tonight with some fog developing as
the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate by late
Wednesday morning with just some mid-high level clouds expected
for Wednesday afternoon. Another round of convection is expected
Wednesday evening as a cold front drops southeastward through the
area. Sely surface wind will veer around to a w-swly direction
around 06z tonight, then back around to a sely direction Wednesday
afternoon. The wind will shift to a nly direction Wednesday
evening after fropa.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St.
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 250122
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
822 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 820 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Present indications are the severe weather threat is fairly low
and isolated. The warm front remains well to the south drapped
from south of Paducah across Reynolds County and into the surface
low near Lake of the Ozarks. Storms thus far have been elevated
with weak values of MUCAPE, and majority of any hail reports have
been pea up to half inch. Current thinking is the surface low will
move pretty close to St. Louis. If anything severe materializes
it should be elevated and isolated consisting of marginally
severe hail.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Convective initiation has commenced within the last 45 minutes across
southeastern KS ahead of the surface low/warm front intersection
and south along the dryline as large scale ascent associated with
the potent short wave trof currently in central KS spreads across
that region. All the short term guidance and CAM show an upswing
in convection through 00z as the surface low tracks east-northeast
into central MO. Present indications are the surface low will
track just north of St. Louis and into central IL by 06z, with the
warm front lifting northward in the process allowing a narrow
wedge of instability to advance into mainly central/southern parts
of the area. While showers and thunderstorms will spread across
the bulk of the area due to strong large scale ascent with the
short wave, the severe threat will primarily be limited to just
north of the warm front and into the warm sector. This will be
greatest in central MO this evening, and despite the lifting warm
front, the instability will diminish with eastward extent limiting
the severe weather potential over far eastern MO and into IL. All
the showers and storms should exit the area by 07z or so as the
surface low moves quickly towards the Great Lakes and cold front
advances.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

The next active period will unfold during the later part of
Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night. The cold front
will be stationary across southern IL to near the MO/AR border at
12z and will once again lift northward during the day into
southeast MO with convective development expected in the vicinity
of the front mid-late afternoon. Shear and instability suggests
the potential for organized severe storms across the southeast
third of the CWA from late afternoon into the evening. Significant
large scale forcing and mid level frontogenetical forcing on
Wednesday night will also contribute to extensive precipitation
within the cool air well to the north of the front, with the LLJ
promoting extensive thunderstorms along and ahead of the front and
for a 100 mile or so wide corridor on the cool side of the front.
There is a decent threat of some heavy rainfall within this area
across southeast Missouri and southern IL due to persistent
thunderstorms and high convective rainfall rates and thus I have
issued a flash flood watch for Wednesday night.

Some lingering rain may impact portions of east central and southeast
MO and southern IL on Thursday morning, otherwise the main story
will be much cool weather from Thursday into Saturday with well
below average temperatures. A northwest flow short wave may even
bring some precipitation to central and southeast sections of the
MO Friday night into Saturday, some of which could be snow.

A warm-up is on tap beginning on Sunday. Despite another cold
front passage on Sunday night, temperatures Sunday into early next
week look at least average for late March.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

A line of convection over western MO, ahead of an upper level
disturbance over eastern KS and a surface low over southwest MO,
will move eastward through COU from 00-02Z, and through the rest
of the taf sites from 02-05Z this evening. Persistent low level
cloud ceiling around 1000 feet in UIN may continue this evening.
The low level clouds should finally clear out late tonight, but
there will likely be some fog late tonight and early Wednesday
morning as the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate by
late Wednesday morning. Just mid-high level clouds are expected
Wednesday afternoon. E-sely surface wind will veer around to a
w-swly direction late this evening after the passage of the
surface low. The surface wind will back around to a s-swly
direction by late Wednesday morning. The surface wind will become
nly in UIN and COU Wednesday afternoon after the passage of a cold
front.

Specifics for KSTL: Scattered to broken clouds around 1000-1500
feet are expected this evening.  Showers and thunderstorms will
move through STL between 02-06Z this evening. The low level cloud
ceiling should clear out late tonight with some fog developing as
the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate by late
Wednesday morning with just some mid-high level clouds expected
for Wednesday afternoon. Another round of convection is expected
Wednesday evening as a cold front drops southeastward through the
area. Sely surface wind will veer around to a w-swly direction
around 06z tonight, then back around to a sely direction Wednesday
afternoon. The wind will shift to a nly direction Wednesday
evening after fropa.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St.
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250122
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
822 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 820 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Present indications are the severe weather threat is fairly low
and isolated. The warm front remains well to the south drapped
from south of Paducah across Reynolds County and into the surface
low near Lake of the Ozarks. Storms thus far have been elevated
with weak values of MUCAPE, and majority of any hail reports have
been pea up to half inch. Current thinking is the surface low will
move pretty close to St. Louis. If anything severe materializes
it should be elevated and isolated consisting of marginally
severe hail.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Convective initiation has commenced within the last 45 minutes across
southeastern KS ahead of the surface low/warm front intersection
and south along the dryline as large scale ascent associated with
the potent short wave trof currently in central KS spreads across
that region. All the short term guidance and CAM show an upswing
in convection through 00z as the surface low tracks east-northeast
into central MO. Present indications are the surface low will
track just north of St. Louis and into central IL by 06z, with the
warm front lifting northward in the process allowing a narrow
wedge of instability to advance into mainly central/southern parts
of the area. While showers and thunderstorms will spread across
the bulk of the area due to strong large scale ascent with the
short wave, the severe threat will primarily be limited to just
north of the warm front and into the warm sector. This will be
greatest in central MO this evening, and despite the lifting warm
front, the instability will diminish with eastward extent limiting
the severe weather potential over far eastern MO and into IL. All
the showers and storms should exit the area by 07z or so as the
surface low moves quickly towards the Great Lakes and cold front
advances.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

The next active period will unfold during the later part of
Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night. The cold front
will be stationary across southern IL to near the MO/AR border at
12z and will once again lift northward during the day into
southeast MO with convective development expected in the vicinity
of the front mid-late afternoon. Shear and instability suggests
the potential for organized severe storms across the southeast
third of the CWA from late afternoon into the evening. Significant
large scale forcing and mid level frontogenetical forcing on
Wednesday night will also contribute to extensive precipitation
within the cool air well to the north of the front, with the LLJ
promoting extensive thunderstorms along and ahead of the front and
for a 100 mile or so wide corridor on the cool side of the front.
There is a decent threat of some heavy rainfall within this area
across southeast Missouri and southern IL due to persistent
thunderstorms and high convective rainfall rates and thus I have
issued a flash flood watch for Wednesday night.

Some lingering rain may impact portions of east central and southeast
MO and southern IL on Thursday morning, otherwise the main story
will be much cool weather from Thursday into Saturday with well
below average temperatures. A northwest flow short wave may even
bring some precipitation to central and southeast sections of the
MO Friday night into Saturday, some of which could be snow.

A warm-up is on tap beginning on Sunday. Despite another cold
front passage on Sunday night, temperatures Sunday into early next
week look at least average for late March.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

A line of convection over western MO, ahead of an upper level
disturbance over eastern KS and a surface low over southwest MO,
will move eastward through COU from 00-02Z, and through the rest
of the taf sites from 02-05Z this evening. Persistent low level
cloud ceiling around 1000 feet in UIN may continue this evening.
The low level clouds should finally clear out late tonight, but
there will likely be some fog late tonight and early Wednesday
morning as the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate by
late Wednesday morning. Just mid-high level clouds are expected
Wednesday afternoon. E-sely surface wind will veer around to a
w-swly direction late this evening after the passage of the
surface low. The surface wind will back around to a s-swly
direction by late Wednesday morning. The surface wind will become
nly in UIN and COU Wednesday afternoon after the passage of a cold
front.

Specifics for KSTL: Scattered to broken clouds around 1000-1500
feet are expected this evening.  Showers and thunderstorms will
move through STL between 02-06Z this evening. The low level cloud
ceiling should clear out late tonight with some fog developing as
the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate by late
Wednesday morning with just some mid-high level clouds expected
for Wednesday afternoon. Another round of convection is expected
Wednesday evening as a cold front drops southeastward through the
area. Sely surface wind will veer around to a w-swly direction
around 06z tonight, then back around to a sely direction Wednesday
afternoon. The wind will shift to a nly direction Wednesday
evening after fropa.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St.
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250122
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
822 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 820 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Present indications are the severe weather threat is fairly low
and isolated. The warm front remains well to the south drapped
from south of Paducah across Reynolds County and into the surface
low near Lake of the Ozarks. Storms thus far have been elevated
with weak values of MUCAPE, and majority of any hail reports have
been pea up to half inch. Current thinking is the surface low will
move pretty close to St. Louis. If anything severe materializes
it should be elevated and isolated consisting of marginally
severe hail.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Convective initiation has commenced within the last 45 minutes across
southeastern KS ahead of the surface low/warm front intersection
and south along the dryline as large scale ascent associated with
the potent short wave trof currently in central KS spreads across
that region. All the short term guidance and CAM show an upswing
in convection through 00z as the surface low tracks east-northeast
into central MO. Present indications are the surface low will
track just north of St. Louis and into central IL by 06z, with the
warm front lifting northward in the process allowing a narrow
wedge of instability to advance into mainly central/southern parts
of the area. While showers and thunderstorms will spread across
the bulk of the area due to strong large scale ascent with the
short wave, the severe threat will primarily be limited to just
north of the warm front and into the warm sector. This will be
greatest in central MO this evening, and despite the lifting warm
front, the instability will diminish with eastward extent limiting
the severe weather potential over far eastern MO and into IL. All
the showers and storms should exit the area by 07z or so as the
surface low moves quickly towards the Great Lakes and cold front
advances.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

The next active period will unfold during the later part of
Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night. The cold front
will be stationary across southern IL to near the MO/AR border at
12z and will once again lift northward during the day into
southeast MO with convective development expected in the vicinity
of the front mid-late afternoon. Shear and instability suggests
the potential for organized severe storms across the southeast
third of the CWA from late afternoon into the evening. Significant
large scale forcing and mid level frontogenetical forcing on
Wednesday night will also contribute to extensive precipitation
within the cool air well to the north of the front, with the LLJ
promoting extensive thunderstorms along and ahead of the front and
for a 100 mile or so wide corridor on the cool side of the front.
There is a decent threat of some heavy rainfall within this area
across southeast Missouri and southern IL due to persistent
thunderstorms and high convective rainfall rates and thus I have
issued a flash flood watch for Wednesday night.

Some lingering rain may impact portions of east central and southeast
MO and southern IL on Thursday morning, otherwise the main story
will be much cool weather from Thursday into Saturday with well
below average temperatures. A northwest flow short wave may even
bring some precipitation to central and southeast sections of the
MO Friday night into Saturday, some of which could be snow.

A warm-up is on tap beginning on Sunday. Despite another cold
front passage on Sunday night, temperatures Sunday into early next
week look at least average for late March.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

A line of convection over western MO, ahead of an upper level
disturbance over eastern KS and a surface low over southwest MO,
will move eastward through COU from 00-02Z, and through the rest
of the taf sites from 02-05Z this evening. Persistent low level
cloud ceiling around 1000 feet in UIN may continue this evening.
The low level clouds should finally clear out late tonight, but
there will likely be some fog late tonight and early Wednesday
morning as the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate by
late Wednesday morning. Just mid-high level clouds are expected
Wednesday afternoon. E-sely surface wind will veer around to a
w-swly direction late this evening after the passage of the
surface low. The surface wind will back around to a s-swly
direction by late Wednesday morning. The surface wind will become
nly in UIN and COU Wednesday afternoon after the passage of a cold
front.

Specifics for KSTL: Scattered to broken clouds around 1000-1500
feet are expected this evening.  Showers and thunderstorms will
move through STL between 02-06Z this evening. The low level cloud
ceiling should clear out late tonight with some fog developing as
the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate by late
Wednesday morning with just some mid-high level clouds expected
for Wednesday afternoon. Another round of convection is expected
Wednesday evening as a cold front drops southeastward through the
area. Sely surface wind will veer around to a w-swly direction
around 06z tonight, then back around to a sely direction Wednesday
afternoon. The wind will shift to a nly direction Wednesday
evening after fropa.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St.
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 242305
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
605 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Convective initiation has commenced within the last 45 minutes across
southeastern KS ahead of the surface low/warm front intersection
and south along the dryline as large scale ascent associated with
the potent short wave trof currently in central KS spreads across
that region. All the short term guidance and CAM show an upswing
in convection through 00z as the surface low tracks east-northeast
into central MO. Present indications are the surface low will
track just north of St. Louis and into central IL by 06z, with the
warm front lifting northward in the process allowing a narrow
wedge of instability to advance into mainly central/southern parts
of the area. While showers and thunderstorms will spread across
the bulk of the area due to strong large scale ascent with the
short wave, the severe threat will primarily be limited to just
north of the warm front and into the warm sector. This will be
greatest in central MO this evening, and despite the lifting warm
front, the instability will diminish with eastward extent limiting
the severe weather potential over far eastern MO and into IL. All
the showers and storms should exit the area by 07z or so as the
surface low moves quickly towards the Great Lakes and cold front
advances.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

The next active period will unfold during the later part of
Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night. The cold front
will be stationary across southern IL to near the MO/AR border at
12z and will once again lift northward during the day into
southeast MO with convective development expected in the vicinity
of the front mid-late afternoon. Shear and instability suggests
the potential for organized severe storms across the southeast
third of the CWA from late afternoon into the evening. Significant
large scale forcing and mid level frontogenetical forcing on
Wednesday night will also contribute to extensive precipitation
within the cool air well to the north of the front, with the LLJ
promoting extensive thunderstorms along and ahead of the front and
for a 100 mile or so wide corridor on the cool side of the front.
There is a decent threat of some heavy rainfall within this area
across southeast Missouri and southern IL due to persistent
thunderstorms and high convective rainfall rates and thus I have
issued a flash flood watch for Wednesday night.

Some lingering rain may impact portions of east central and southeast
MO and southern IL on Thursday morning, otherwise the main story
will be much cool weather from Thursday into Saturday with well
below average temperatures. A northwest flow short wave may even
bring some precipitation to central and southeast sections of the
MO Friday night into Saturday, some of which could be snow.

A warm-up is on tap beginning on Sunday. Despite another cold
front passage on Sunday night, temperatures Sunday into early next
week look at least average for late March.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

A line of convection over western MO, ahead of an upper level
disturbance over eastern KS and a surface low over southwest MO,
will move eastward through COU from 00-02Z, and through the rest
of the taf sites from 02-05Z this evening. Persistent low level
cloud ceiling around 1000 feet in UIN may continue this evening.
The low level clouds should finally clear out late tonight, but
there will likely be some fog late tonight and early Wednesday
morning as the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate by
late Wednesday morning. Just mid-high level clouds are expected
Wednesday afternoon. E-sely surface wind will veer around to a
w-swly direction late this evening after the passage of the
surface low. The surface wind will back around to a s-swly
direction by late Wednesday morning. The surface wind will become
nly in UIN and COU Wednesday afternoon after the passage of a cold
front.

Specifics for KSTL: Scattered to broken clouds around 1000-1500
feet are expected this evening.  Showers and thunderstorms will
move through STL between 02-06Z this evening. The low level cloud
ceiling should clear out late tonight with some fog developing as
the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate by late
Wednesday morning with just some mid-high level clouds expected
for Wednesday afternoon. Another round of convection is expected
Wednesday evening as a cold front drops southeastward through the
area. Sely surface wind will veer around to a w-swly direction
around 06z tonight, then back around to a sely direction Wednesday
afternoon. The wind will shift to a nly direction Wednesday
evening after fropa.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  70  41  51 /  90  20  90  20
Quincy          39  61  35  47 / 100  20  60  10
Columbia        42  69  39  50 / 100  30  80   5
Jefferson City  42  72  40  52 / 100  50  80   5
Salem           48  68  42  51 /  80  10 100  40
Farmington      47  72  43  52 /  80  50 100  40

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St.
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242305
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
605 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Convective initiation has commenced within the last 45 minutes across
southeastern KS ahead of the surface low/warm front intersection
and south along the dryline as large scale ascent associated with
the potent short wave trof currently in central KS spreads across
that region. All the short term guidance and CAM show an upswing
in convection through 00z as the surface low tracks east-northeast
into central MO. Present indications are the surface low will
track just north of St. Louis and into central IL by 06z, with the
warm front lifting northward in the process allowing a narrow
wedge of instability to advance into mainly central/southern parts
of the area. While showers and thunderstorms will spread across
the bulk of the area due to strong large scale ascent with the
short wave, the severe threat will primarily be limited to just
north of the warm front and into the warm sector. This will be
greatest in central MO this evening, and despite the lifting warm
front, the instability will diminish with eastward extent limiting
the severe weather potential over far eastern MO and into IL. All
the showers and storms should exit the area by 07z or so as the
surface low moves quickly towards the Great Lakes and cold front
advances.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

The next active period will unfold during the later part of
Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night. The cold front
will be stationary across southern IL to near the MO/AR border at
12z and will once again lift northward during the day into
southeast MO with convective development expected in the vicinity
of the front mid-late afternoon. Shear and instability suggests
the potential for organized severe storms across the southeast
third of the CWA from late afternoon into the evening. Significant
large scale forcing and mid level frontogenetical forcing on
Wednesday night will also contribute to extensive precipitation
within the cool air well to the north of the front, with the LLJ
promoting extensive thunderstorms along and ahead of the front and
for a 100 mile or so wide corridor on the cool side of the front.
There is a decent threat of some heavy rainfall within this area
across southeast Missouri and southern IL due to persistent
thunderstorms and high convective rainfall rates and thus I have
issued a flash flood watch for Wednesday night.

Some lingering rain may impact portions of east central and southeast
MO and southern IL on Thursday morning, otherwise the main story
will be much cool weather from Thursday into Saturday with well
below average temperatures. A northwest flow short wave may even
bring some precipitation to central and southeast sections of the
MO Friday night into Saturday, some of which could be snow.

A warm-up is on tap beginning on Sunday. Despite another cold
front passage on Sunday night, temperatures Sunday into early next
week look at least average for late March.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

A line of convection over western MO, ahead of an upper level
disturbance over eastern KS and a surface low over southwest MO,
will move eastward through COU from 00-02Z, and through the rest
of the taf sites from 02-05Z this evening. Persistent low level
cloud ceiling around 1000 feet in UIN may continue this evening.
The low level clouds should finally clear out late tonight, but
there will likely be some fog late tonight and early Wednesday
morning as the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate by
late Wednesday morning. Just mid-high level clouds are expected
Wednesday afternoon. E-sely surface wind will veer around to a
w-swly direction late this evening after the passage of the
surface low. The surface wind will back around to a s-swly
direction by late Wednesday morning. The surface wind will become
nly in UIN and COU Wednesday afternoon after the passage of a cold
front.

Specifics for KSTL: Scattered to broken clouds around 1000-1500
feet are expected this evening.  Showers and thunderstorms will
move through STL between 02-06Z this evening. The low level cloud
ceiling should clear out late tonight with some fog developing as
the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate by late
Wednesday morning with just some mid-high level clouds expected
for Wednesday afternoon. Another round of convection is expected
Wednesday evening as a cold front drops southeastward through the
area. Sely surface wind will veer around to a w-swly direction
around 06z tonight, then back around to a sely direction Wednesday
afternoon. The wind will shift to a nly direction Wednesday
evening after fropa.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  70  41  51 /  90  20  90  20
Quincy          39  61  35  47 / 100  20  60  10
Columbia        42  69  39  50 / 100  30  80   5
Jefferson City  42  72  40  52 / 100  50  80   5
Salem           48  68  42  51 /  80  10 100  40
Farmington      47  72  43  52 /  80  50 100  40

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St.
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 242305
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
605 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Convective initiation has commenced within the last 45 minutes across
southeastern KS ahead of the surface low/warm front intersection
and south along the dryline as large scale ascent associated with
the potent short wave trof currently in central KS spreads across
that region. All the short term guidance and CAM show an upswing
in convection through 00z as the surface low tracks east-northeast
into central MO. Present indications are the surface low will
track just north of St. Louis and into central IL by 06z, with the
warm front lifting northward in the process allowing a narrow
wedge of instability to advance into mainly central/southern parts
of the area. While showers and thunderstorms will spread across
the bulk of the area due to strong large scale ascent with the
short wave, the severe threat will primarily be limited to just
north of the warm front and into the warm sector. This will be
greatest in central MO this evening, and despite the lifting warm
front, the instability will diminish with eastward extent limiting
the severe weather potential over far eastern MO and into IL. All
the showers and storms should exit the area by 07z or so as the
surface low moves quickly towards the Great Lakes and cold front
advances.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

The next active period will unfold during the later part of
Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night. The cold front
will be stationary across southern IL to near the MO/AR border at
12z and will once again lift northward during the day into
southeast MO with convective development expected in the vicinity
of the front mid-late afternoon. Shear and instability suggests
the potential for organized severe storms across the southeast
third of the CWA from late afternoon into the evening. Significant
large scale forcing and mid level frontogenetical forcing on
Wednesday night will also contribute to extensive precipitation
within the cool air well to the north of the front, with the LLJ
promoting extensive thunderstorms along and ahead of the front and
for a 100 mile or so wide corridor on the cool side of the front.
There is a decent threat of some heavy rainfall within this area
across southeast Missouri and southern IL due to persistent
thunderstorms and high convective rainfall rates and thus I have
issued a flash flood watch for Wednesday night.

Some lingering rain may impact portions of east central and southeast
MO and southern IL on Thursday morning, otherwise the main story
will be much cool weather from Thursday into Saturday with well
below average temperatures. A northwest flow short wave may even
bring some precipitation to central and southeast sections of the
MO Friday night into Saturday, some of which could be snow.

A warm-up is on tap beginning on Sunday. Despite another cold
front passage on Sunday night, temperatures Sunday into early next
week look at least average for late March.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

A line of convection over western MO, ahead of an upper level
disturbance over eastern KS and a surface low over southwest MO,
will move eastward through COU from 00-02Z, and through the rest
of the taf sites from 02-05Z this evening. Persistent low level
cloud ceiling around 1000 feet in UIN may continue this evening.
The low level clouds should finally clear out late tonight, but
there will likely be some fog late tonight and early Wednesday
morning as the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate by
late Wednesday morning. Just mid-high level clouds are expected
Wednesday afternoon. E-sely surface wind will veer around to a
w-swly direction late this evening after the passage of the
surface low. The surface wind will back around to a s-swly
direction by late Wednesday morning. The surface wind will become
nly in UIN and COU Wednesday afternoon after the passage of a cold
front.

Specifics for KSTL: Scattered to broken clouds around 1000-1500
feet are expected this evening.  Showers and thunderstorms will
move through STL between 02-06Z this evening. The low level cloud
ceiling should clear out late tonight with some fog developing as
the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate by late
Wednesday morning with just some mid-high level clouds expected
for Wednesday afternoon. Another round of convection is expected
Wednesday evening as a cold front drops southeastward through the
area. Sely surface wind will veer around to a w-swly direction
around 06z tonight, then back around to a sely direction Wednesday
afternoon. The wind will shift to a nly direction Wednesday
evening after fropa.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  70  41  51 /  90  20  90  20
Quincy          39  61  35  47 / 100  20  60  10
Columbia        42  69  39  50 / 100  30  80   5
Jefferson City  42  72  40  52 / 100  50  80   5
Salem           48  68  42  51 /  80  10 100  40
Farmington      47  72  43  52 /  80  50 100  40

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St.
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 242305
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
605 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Convective initiation has commenced within the last 45 minutes across
southeastern KS ahead of the surface low/warm front intersection
and south along the dryline as large scale ascent associated with
the potent short wave trof currently in central KS spreads across
that region. All the short term guidance and CAM show an upswing
in convection through 00z as the surface low tracks east-northeast
into central MO. Present indications are the surface low will
track just north of St. Louis and into central IL by 06z, with the
warm front lifting northward in the process allowing a narrow
wedge of instability to advance into mainly central/southern parts
of the area. While showers and thunderstorms will spread across
the bulk of the area due to strong large scale ascent with the
short wave, the severe threat will primarily be limited to just
north of the warm front and into the warm sector. This will be
greatest in central MO this evening, and despite the lifting warm
front, the instability will diminish with eastward extent limiting
the severe weather potential over far eastern MO and into IL. All
the showers and storms should exit the area by 07z or so as the
surface low moves quickly towards the Great Lakes and cold front
advances.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

The next active period will unfold during the later part of
Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night. The cold front
will be stationary across southern IL to near the MO/AR border at
12z and will once again lift northward during the day into
southeast MO with convective development expected in the vicinity
of the front mid-late afternoon. Shear and instability suggests
the potential for organized severe storms across the southeast
third of the CWA from late afternoon into the evening. Significant
large scale forcing and mid level frontogenetical forcing on
Wednesday night will also contribute to extensive precipitation
within the cool air well to the north of the front, with the LLJ
promoting extensive thunderstorms along and ahead of the front and
for a 100 mile or so wide corridor on the cool side of the front.
There is a decent threat of some heavy rainfall within this area
across southeast Missouri and southern IL due to persistent
thunderstorms and high convective rainfall rates and thus I have
issued a flash flood watch for Wednesday night.

Some lingering rain may impact portions of east central and southeast
MO and southern IL on Thursday morning, otherwise the main story
will be much cool weather from Thursday into Saturday with well
below average temperatures. A northwest flow short wave may even
bring some precipitation to central and southeast sections of the
MO Friday night into Saturday, some of which could be snow.

A warm-up is on tap beginning on Sunday. Despite another cold
front passage on Sunday night, temperatures Sunday into early next
week look at least average for late March.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

A line of convection over western MO, ahead of an upper level
disturbance over eastern KS and a surface low over southwest MO,
will move eastward through COU from 00-02Z, and through the rest
of the taf sites from 02-05Z this evening. Persistent low level
cloud ceiling around 1000 feet in UIN may continue this evening.
The low level clouds should finally clear out late tonight, but
there will likely be some fog late tonight and early Wednesday
morning as the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate by
late Wednesday morning. Just mid-high level clouds are expected
Wednesday afternoon. E-sely surface wind will veer around to a
w-swly direction late this evening after the passage of the
surface low. The surface wind will back around to a s-swly
direction by late Wednesday morning. The surface wind will become
nly in UIN and COU Wednesday afternoon after the passage of a cold
front.

Specifics for KSTL: Scattered to broken clouds around 1000-1500
feet are expected this evening.  Showers and thunderstorms will
move through STL between 02-06Z this evening. The low level cloud
ceiling should clear out late tonight with some fog developing as
the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate by late
Wednesday morning with just some mid-high level clouds expected
for Wednesday afternoon. Another round of convection is expected
Wednesday evening as a cold front drops southeastward through the
area. Sely surface wind will veer around to a w-swly direction
around 06z tonight, then back around to a sely direction Wednesday
afternoon. The wind will shift to a nly direction Wednesday
evening after fropa.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  70  41  51 /  90  20  90  20
Quincy          39  61  35  47 / 100  20  60  10
Columbia        42  69  39  50 / 100  30  80   5
Jefferson City  42  72  40  52 / 100  50  80   5
Salem           48  68  42  51 /  80  10 100  40
Farmington      47  72  43  52 /  80  50 100  40

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St.
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242116
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
416 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Convective initiation has commenced within the last 45 minutes across
southeastern KS ahead of the surface low/warm front intersection
and south along the dryline as large scale ascent associated with
the potent short wave trof currently in central KS spreads across
that region. All the short term guidance and CAM show an upswing
in convection through 00z as the surface low tracks east-northeast
into central MO. Present indications are the surface low will
track just north of St. Louis and into central IL by 06z, with the
warm front lifting northward in the process allowing a narrow
wedge of instability to advance into mainly central/southern parts
of the area. While showers and thunderstorms will spread across
the bulk of the area due to strong large scale ascent with the
short wave, the severe threat will primarily be limited to just
north of the warm front and into the warm sector. This will be
greatest in central MO this evening, and despite the lifting warm
front, the instability will diminish with eastward extent limiting
the severe weather potential over far eastern MO and into IL. All
the showers and storms should exit the area by 07z or so as the
surface low moves quickly towards the Great Lakes and cold front
advances.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

The next active period will unfold during the later part of
Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night. The cold front
will be stationary across southern IL to near the MO/AR border at
12z and will once again lift northward during the day into
southeast MO with convective development expected in the vicinity
of the front mid-late afternoon. Shear and instability suggests
the potential for organized severe storms across the southeast
third of the CWA from late afternoon into the evening. Significant
large scale forcing and mid level frontogenetical forcing on
Wednesday night will also contribute to extensive precipitation
within the cool air well to the north of the front, with the LLJ
promoting extensive thunderstorms along and ahead of the front and
for a 100 mile or so wide corridor on the cool side of the front.
There is a decent threat of some heavy rainfall within this area
across southeast Missouri and southern IL due to persistent
thunderstorms and high convective rainfall rates and thus I have
issued a flash flood watch for Wednesday night.

Some lingering rain may impact portions of east central and southeast
MO and southern IL on Thursday morning, otherwise the main story
will be much cool weather from Thursday into Saturday with well
below average temperatures. A northwest flow short wave may even
bring some precipitation to central and southeast sections of the
MO Friday night into Saturday, some of which could be snow.

A warm-up is on tap beginning on Sunday. Despite another cold
front passage on Sunday night, temperatures Sunday into early next
week look at least average for late March.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Patchy light rain in the St Louis metro area should shift east of
this region later this afternoon. Only a slow rise in the IFR
cloud ceilings is expected this afternoon with a warm
front/stationary front south of the taf sites. A band or line of
convection is expected to move fairly quickly eastward through the
taf sites this evening as a strong upper level disturbance and
a surface low move through the area. The low level clouds should
finally clear out late tonight, but there may be at least light fog
late tonight and early Wednesday morning as the surface wind weakens.
The fog should dissipate by late Wednesday morning. E-sely surface
wind will veer around to a w-swly direction late this evening
after the passage of the surface low. The surface wind will back
around to a s-swly direction by late Wednesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: There may be more light rain early this
afternoon. The fog should dissipate later this afternoon with the
ceiling rising into the MVFR catagory. Showers and thunderstorms
will move through STL between 02-06Z this evening. The low level
cloud ceiling should clear out late tonight with some fog
developing as the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate
by late Wednesday morning with just some mid-high level clouds
expected for Wednesday afternoon. E-sely surface wind will veer
around to a w-swly direction around 06z tonight, then back around
to a sely direction Wednesday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  70  41  51 /  90  20  90  20
Quincy          39  61  35  47 / 100  20  60  10
Columbia        42  69  39  50 / 100  30  80   5
Jefferson City  42  72  40  52 / 100  50  80   5
Salem           48  68  42  51 /  80  10 100  40
Farmington      47  72  43  52 /  80  50 100  40

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St.
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242116
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
416 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Convective initiation has commenced within the last 45 minutes across
southeastern KS ahead of the surface low/warm front intersection
and south along the dryline as large scale ascent associated with
the potent short wave trof currently in central KS spreads across
that region. All the short term guidance and CAM show an upswing
in convection through 00z as the surface low tracks east-northeast
into central MO. Present indications are the surface low will
track just north of St. Louis and into central IL by 06z, with the
warm front lifting northward in the process allowing a narrow
wedge of instability to advance into mainly central/southern parts
of the area. While showers and thunderstorms will spread across
the bulk of the area due to strong large scale ascent with the
short wave, the severe threat will primarily be limited to just
north of the warm front and into the warm sector. This will be
greatest in central MO this evening, and despite the lifting warm
front, the instability will diminish with eastward extent limiting
the severe weather potential over far eastern MO and into IL. All
the showers and storms should exit the area by 07z or so as the
surface low moves quickly towards the Great Lakes and cold front
advances.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

The next active period will unfold during the later part of
Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night. The cold front
will be stationary across southern IL to near the MO/AR border at
12z and will once again lift northward during the day into
southeast MO with convective development expected in the vicinity
of the front mid-late afternoon. Shear and instability suggests
the potential for organized severe storms across the southeast
third of the CWA from late afternoon into the evening. Significant
large scale forcing and mid level frontogenetical forcing on
Wednesday night will also contribute to extensive precipitation
within the cool air well to the north of the front, with the LLJ
promoting extensive thunderstorms along and ahead of the front and
for a 100 mile or so wide corridor on the cool side of the front.
There is a decent threat of some heavy rainfall within this area
across southeast Missouri and southern IL due to persistent
thunderstorms and high convective rainfall rates and thus I have
issued a flash flood watch for Wednesday night.

Some lingering rain may impact portions of east central and southeast
MO and southern IL on Thursday morning, otherwise the main story
will be much cool weather from Thursday into Saturday with well
below average temperatures. A northwest flow short wave may even
bring some precipitation to central and southeast sections of the
MO Friday night into Saturday, some of which could be snow.

A warm-up is on tap beginning on Sunday. Despite another cold
front passage on Sunday night, temperatures Sunday into early next
week look at least average for late March.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Patchy light rain in the St Louis metro area should shift east of
this region later this afternoon. Only a slow rise in the IFR
cloud ceilings is expected this afternoon with a warm
front/stationary front south of the taf sites. A band or line of
convection is expected to move fairly quickly eastward through the
taf sites this evening as a strong upper level disturbance and
a surface low move through the area. The low level clouds should
finally clear out late tonight, but there may be at least light fog
late tonight and early Wednesday morning as the surface wind weakens.
The fog should dissipate by late Wednesday morning. E-sely surface
wind will veer around to a w-swly direction late this evening
after the passage of the surface low. The surface wind will back
around to a s-swly direction by late Wednesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: There may be more light rain early this
afternoon. The fog should dissipate later this afternoon with the
ceiling rising into the MVFR catagory. Showers and thunderstorms
will move through STL between 02-06Z this evening. The low level
cloud ceiling should clear out late tonight with some fog
developing as the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate
by late Wednesday morning with just some mid-high level clouds
expected for Wednesday afternoon. E-sely surface wind will veer
around to a w-swly direction around 06z tonight, then back around
to a sely direction Wednesday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  70  41  51 /  90  20  90  20
Quincy          39  61  35  47 / 100  20  60  10
Columbia        42  69  39  50 / 100  30  80   5
Jefferson City  42  72  40  52 / 100  50  80   5
Salem           48  68  42  51 /  80  10 100  40
Farmington      47  72  43  52 /  80  50 100  40

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St.
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 241802
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
102 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Strong shortwave now moving across the eastern Rockies is forcing
lee-side cyclogenesis over the Oklahoma pan handle.  The surface
cold front looks to be nearly stationary now over extreme southwest
Missouri at this time, but the low level jet is pouring warmer and
more moist air up over the colder air at the surface.  Warm
advection precip has spread across much of northern Missouri and
into west central Illinois at this time, as well as parts of
southwest Missouri.  Short range guidance is in good agreement that
this rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to expand and
overspread much of the area along and north of I-44/I-70 this
morning.  The rain cooled air as well as cool easterly flow should
help to keep the front south of I-70 in Missouri and I-64 in
Illinois today even though the warm advection will continue to be
quite strong.  The front will likely lift northward across some
portion of the area though.  South of the front temperatures will
likely get into the upper 60s to low and mid 70s, while north of the
front we`ll be hard pressed to break into the mid 50s.

Severe thunderstorms still a good possibility across a portion of
the area this evening.  Latest short range guidance shows a broken
line of thunderstorms moving into the area between 23-02Z this
evening as the surface low moves into central Missouri.  There will
certainly be enough deep layer shear for severe weather across the
area with values in excess of 50kts.  Models are showing 0-1km
helicity of 300-500 m2/s2 as well.  The limiting factor will be
instability.  Latest guidance has backed off from yesterday`s runs
on CAPE values with MLCAPE barely able to crack 500 J/kg and even
MUCAPE unable to get above 1000 J/kg.  This is most likely due to
the aforementioned surface front being further south than previously
expected.  The 4km NCEP WRF looks reasonable with the broken line
moving into central Missouri around 02Z and then making it about 1/2
way to St. Louis before weakening.  Still should get some strong
thunderstorms west of the Mississippi river, with locally damaging
winds being the primary threat due to the strong kinematics.  Can`t
rule out inch hail or larger if we get some rotating storms.  And of
course there continues to be a small tornado threat due to the low
level shear/helicity...especially in the vicinity of the warm front
as it tries to lift north ahead of the surface low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

A deep full-latitude trof will begin digging across the Great Plains
Wednesday forcing another surface low to develop over north Texas.
The surface front from tonight`s storms looks to be over the Ozarks,
and it is forecast to jump northward as the low spins up during the
morning.  Models are having some trouble deciding where the boundary
will set up, but the consensus is near the I-44 corridor in Missouri
and the I-70 corridor in Illinois.  A strong low level jet will be
pointed right at the low level baroclinic zone.  All models print
out QPF in excess of 2 inches along and south of the boundary.
Strong deep layer shear in excess of 50kts will again be over the
area, and the atmosphere will be more unstable with MLCAPE in excess
of 1000 J/kg and MUCAPE as high as 1500-2000 J/kg across our
southern zones according to the NAM.  GFS is a little more
conservative, but it should be plenty unstable.  Additionally, the
boundary does`t look to be moving very quickly, so with the low
level jet pumping moisture into the baroclinic zone for an extended
period, there will be the potential for flooding.  Will have to keep
an eye on the heavy rain potential.

Quieter and colder weather is still expected for Thursday through
Saturday as the longwave trof digs into the eastern CONUS allowing a
strong Canadian high pressure system to drop down across the Great
Plains and Midwest.  Temperatures well below normal are expected
Friday and Saturday as the high drops southeast.  Northwest flow
aloft will carry a couple of shortwaves down across the area.  The
GFS prints out light precip as these shortwaves pass, but have kept
mentionable precip out for now as the best forcing and highest QPF
look to be west of our CWFA.  Additionally the surface ridge to our
northeast/east will be pumping cold dry air in under the shortwaves,
so it might be difficult to get precip to reach the ground.

Medium range guidance diverges Sunday into Monday with the warmer
GFS showing a FROPA and light rain Sunday, and the cooler ECMWF
staying dry.  ECMWF brings the front through Monday with precip,
while the GFS has high pressure over us.  As there was no clear
preference in solutions, stuck close to the ensemble guidance for
Sunday and Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Patchy light rain in the St Louis metro area should shift east of
this region later this afternoon. Only a slow rise in the IFR
cloud ceilings is expected this afternoon with a warm
front/stationary front south of the taf sites. A band or line of
convection is expected to move fairly quickly eastward through the
taf sites this evening as a strong upper level disturbance and
a surface low move through the area. The low level clouds should
finally clear out late tonight, but there may be at least light fog
late tonight and early Wednesday morning as the surface wind weakens.
The fog should dissipate by late Wednesday morning. E-sely surface
wind will veer around to a w-swly direction late this evening
after the passage of the surface low. The surface wind will back
around to a s-swly direction by late Wednesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: There may be more light rain early this
afternoon. The fog should dissipate later this afternoon with the
ceiling rising into the MVFR catagory. Showers and thunderstorms
will move through STL between 02-06Z this evening. The low level
cloud ceiling should clear out late tonight with some fog
developing as the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate
by late Wednesday morning with just some mid-high level clouds
expected for Wednesday afternoon. E-sely surface wind will veer
around to a w-swly direction around 06z tonight, then back around
to a sely direction Wednesday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     52  46  71  41 /  50  90  20  90
Quincy          45  40  63  34 /  30 100  20  60
Columbia        56  43  69  38 /  80 100  30  80
Jefferson City  61  43  73  39 /  80 100  50  80
Salem           51  48  69  42 /  70  80  10 100
Farmington      61  48  72  42 /  80  80  50 100

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St.
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241802
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
102 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Strong shortwave now moving across the eastern Rockies is forcing
lee-side cyclogenesis over the Oklahoma pan handle.  The surface
cold front looks to be nearly stationary now over extreme southwest
Missouri at this time, but the low level jet is pouring warmer and
more moist air up over the colder air at the surface.  Warm
advection precip has spread across much of northern Missouri and
into west central Illinois at this time, as well as parts of
southwest Missouri.  Short range guidance is in good agreement that
this rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to expand and
overspread much of the area along and north of I-44/I-70 this
morning.  The rain cooled air as well as cool easterly flow should
help to keep the front south of I-70 in Missouri and I-64 in
Illinois today even though the warm advection will continue to be
quite strong.  The front will likely lift northward across some
portion of the area though.  South of the front temperatures will
likely get into the upper 60s to low and mid 70s, while north of the
front we`ll be hard pressed to break into the mid 50s.

Severe thunderstorms still a good possibility across a portion of
the area this evening.  Latest short range guidance shows a broken
line of thunderstorms moving into the area between 23-02Z this
evening as the surface low moves into central Missouri.  There will
certainly be enough deep layer shear for severe weather across the
area with values in excess of 50kts.  Models are showing 0-1km
helicity of 300-500 m2/s2 as well.  The limiting factor will be
instability.  Latest guidance has backed off from yesterday`s runs
on CAPE values with MLCAPE barely able to crack 500 J/kg and even
MUCAPE unable to get above 1000 J/kg.  This is most likely due to
the aforementioned surface front being further south than previously
expected.  The 4km NCEP WRF looks reasonable with the broken line
moving into central Missouri around 02Z and then making it about 1/2
way to St. Louis before weakening.  Still should get some strong
thunderstorms west of the Mississippi river, with locally damaging
winds being the primary threat due to the strong kinematics.  Can`t
rule out inch hail or larger if we get some rotating storms.  And of
course there continues to be a small tornado threat due to the low
level shear/helicity...especially in the vicinity of the warm front
as it tries to lift north ahead of the surface low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

A deep full-latitude trof will begin digging across the Great Plains
Wednesday forcing another surface low to develop over north Texas.
The surface front from tonight`s storms looks to be over the Ozarks,
and it is forecast to jump northward as the low spins up during the
morning.  Models are having some trouble deciding where the boundary
will set up, but the consensus is near the I-44 corridor in Missouri
and the I-70 corridor in Illinois.  A strong low level jet will be
pointed right at the low level baroclinic zone.  All models print
out QPF in excess of 2 inches along and south of the boundary.
Strong deep layer shear in excess of 50kts will again be over the
area, and the atmosphere will be more unstable with MLCAPE in excess
of 1000 J/kg and MUCAPE as high as 1500-2000 J/kg across our
southern zones according to the NAM.  GFS is a little more
conservative, but it should be plenty unstable.  Additionally, the
boundary does`t look to be moving very quickly, so with the low
level jet pumping moisture into the baroclinic zone for an extended
period, there will be the potential for flooding.  Will have to keep
an eye on the heavy rain potential.

Quieter and colder weather is still expected for Thursday through
Saturday as the longwave trof digs into the eastern CONUS allowing a
strong Canadian high pressure system to drop down across the Great
Plains and Midwest.  Temperatures well below normal are expected
Friday and Saturday as the high drops southeast.  Northwest flow
aloft will carry a couple of shortwaves down across the area.  The
GFS prints out light precip as these shortwaves pass, but have kept
mentionable precip out for now as the best forcing and highest QPF
look to be west of our CWFA.  Additionally the surface ridge to our
northeast/east will be pumping cold dry air in under the shortwaves,
so it might be difficult to get precip to reach the ground.

Medium range guidance diverges Sunday into Monday with the warmer
GFS showing a FROPA and light rain Sunday, and the cooler ECMWF
staying dry.  ECMWF brings the front through Monday with precip,
while the GFS has high pressure over us.  As there was no clear
preference in solutions, stuck close to the ensemble guidance for
Sunday and Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Patchy light rain in the St Louis metro area should shift east of
this region later this afternoon. Only a slow rise in the IFR
cloud ceilings is expected this afternoon with a warm
front/stationary front south of the taf sites. A band or line of
convection is expected to move fairly quickly eastward through the
taf sites this evening as a strong upper level disturbance and
a surface low move through the area. The low level clouds should
finally clear out late tonight, but there may be at least light fog
late tonight and early Wednesday morning as the surface wind weakens.
The fog should dissipate by late Wednesday morning. E-sely surface
wind will veer around to a w-swly direction late this evening
after the passage of the surface low. The surface wind will back
around to a s-swly direction by late Wednesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: There may be more light rain early this
afternoon. The fog should dissipate later this afternoon with the
ceiling rising into the MVFR catagory. Showers and thunderstorms
will move through STL between 02-06Z this evening. The low level
cloud ceiling should clear out late tonight with some fog
developing as the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate
by late Wednesday morning with just some mid-high level clouds
expected for Wednesday afternoon. E-sely surface wind will veer
around to a w-swly direction around 06z tonight, then back around
to a sely direction Wednesday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     52  46  71  41 /  50  90  20  90
Quincy          45  40  63  34 /  30 100  20  60
Columbia        56  43  69  38 /  80 100  30  80
Jefferson City  61  43  73  39 /  80 100  50  80
Salem           51  48  69  42 /  70  80  10 100
Farmington      61  48  72  42 /  80  80  50 100

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St.
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241802
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
102 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Strong shortwave now moving across the eastern Rockies is forcing
lee-side cyclogenesis over the Oklahoma pan handle.  The surface
cold front looks to be nearly stationary now over extreme southwest
Missouri at this time, but the low level jet is pouring warmer and
more moist air up over the colder air at the surface.  Warm
advection precip has spread across much of northern Missouri and
into west central Illinois at this time, as well as parts of
southwest Missouri.  Short range guidance is in good agreement that
this rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to expand and
overspread much of the area along and north of I-44/I-70 this
morning.  The rain cooled air as well as cool easterly flow should
help to keep the front south of I-70 in Missouri and I-64 in
Illinois today even though the warm advection will continue to be
quite strong.  The front will likely lift northward across some
portion of the area though.  South of the front temperatures will
likely get into the upper 60s to low and mid 70s, while north of the
front we`ll be hard pressed to break into the mid 50s.

Severe thunderstorms still a good possibility across a portion of
the area this evening.  Latest short range guidance shows a broken
line of thunderstorms moving into the area between 23-02Z this
evening as the surface low moves into central Missouri.  There will
certainly be enough deep layer shear for severe weather across the
area with values in excess of 50kts.  Models are showing 0-1km
helicity of 300-500 m2/s2 as well.  The limiting factor will be
instability.  Latest guidance has backed off from yesterday`s runs
on CAPE values with MLCAPE barely able to crack 500 J/kg and even
MUCAPE unable to get above 1000 J/kg.  This is most likely due to
the aforementioned surface front being further south than previously
expected.  The 4km NCEP WRF looks reasonable with the broken line
moving into central Missouri around 02Z and then making it about 1/2
way to St. Louis before weakening.  Still should get some strong
thunderstorms west of the Mississippi river, with locally damaging
winds being the primary threat due to the strong kinematics.  Can`t
rule out inch hail or larger if we get some rotating storms.  And of
course there continues to be a small tornado threat due to the low
level shear/helicity...especially in the vicinity of the warm front
as it tries to lift north ahead of the surface low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

A deep full-latitude trof will begin digging across the Great Plains
Wednesday forcing another surface low to develop over north Texas.
The surface front from tonight`s storms looks to be over the Ozarks,
and it is forecast to jump northward as the low spins up during the
morning.  Models are having some trouble deciding where the boundary
will set up, but the consensus is near the I-44 corridor in Missouri
and the I-70 corridor in Illinois.  A strong low level jet will be
pointed right at the low level baroclinic zone.  All models print
out QPF in excess of 2 inches along and south of the boundary.
Strong deep layer shear in excess of 50kts will again be over the
area, and the atmosphere will be more unstable with MLCAPE in excess
of 1000 J/kg and MUCAPE as high as 1500-2000 J/kg across our
southern zones according to the NAM.  GFS is a little more
conservative, but it should be plenty unstable.  Additionally, the
boundary does`t look to be moving very quickly, so with the low
level jet pumping moisture into the baroclinic zone for an extended
period, there will be the potential for flooding.  Will have to keep
an eye on the heavy rain potential.

Quieter and colder weather is still expected for Thursday through
Saturday as the longwave trof digs into the eastern CONUS allowing a
strong Canadian high pressure system to drop down across the Great
Plains and Midwest.  Temperatures well below normal are expected
Friday and Saturday as the high drops southeast.  Northwest flow
aloft will carry a couple of shortwaves down across the area.  The
GFS prints out light precip as these shortwaves pass, but have kept
mentionable precip out for now as the best forcing and highest QPF
look to be west of our CWFA.  Additionally the surface ridge to our
northeast/east will be pumping cold dry air in under the shortwaves,
so it might be difficult to get precip to reach the ground.

Medium range guidance diverges Sunday into Monday with the warmer
GFS showing a FROPA and light rain Sunday, and the cooler ECMWF
staying dry.  ECMWF brings the front through Monday with precip,
while the GFS has high pressure over us.  As there was no clear
preference in solutions, stuck close to the ensemble guidance for
Sunday and Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Patchy light rain in the St Louis metro area should shift east of
this region later this afternoon. Only a slow rise in the IFR
cloud ceilings is expected this afternoon with a warm
front/stationary front south of the taf sites. A band or line of
convection is expected to move fairly quickly eastward through the
taf sites this evening as a strong upper level disturbance and
a surface low move through the area. The low level clouds should
finally clear out late tonight, but there may be at least light fog
late tonight and early Wednesday morning as the surface wind weakens.
The fog should dissipate by late Wednesday morning. E-sely surface
wind will veer around to a w-swly direction late this evening
after the passage of the surface low. The surface wind will back
around to a s-swly direction by late Wednesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: There may be more light rain early this
afternoon. The fog should dissipate later this afternoon with the
ceiling rising into the MVFR catagory. Showers and thunderstorms
will move through STL between 02-06Z this evening. The low level
cloud ceiling should clear out late tonight with some fog
developing as the surface wind weakens. The fog should dissipate
by late Wednesday morning with just some mid-high level clouds
expected for Wednesday afternoon. E-sely surface wind will veer
around to a w-swly direction around 06z tonight, then back around
to a sely direction Wednesday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     52  46  71  41 /  50  90  20  90
Quincy          45  40  63  34 /  30 100  20  60
Columbia        56  43  69  38 /  80 100  30  80
Jefferson City  61  43  73  39 /  80 100  50  80
Salem           51  48  69  42 /  70  80  10 100
Farmington      61  48  72  42 /  80  80  50 100

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St.
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 241109
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
609 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Strong shortwave now moving across the eastern Rockies is forcing
lee-side cyclogenesis over the Oklahoma pan handle.  The surface
cold front looks to be nearly stationary now over extreme southwest
Missouri at this time, but the low level jet is pouring warmer and
more moist air up over the colder air at the surface.  Warm
advection precip has spread across much of northern Missouri and
into west central Illinois at this time, as well as parts of
southwest Missouri.  Short range guidance is in good agreement that
this rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to expand and
overspread much of the area along and north of I-44/I-70 this
morning.  The rain cooled air as well as cool easterly flow should
help to keep the front south of I-70 in Missouri and I-64 in
Illinois today even though the warm advection will continue to be
quite strong.  The front will likely lift northward across some
portion of the area though.  South of the front temperatures will
likely get into the upper 60s to low and mid 70s, while north of the
front we`ll be hard pressed to break into the mid 50s.

Severe thunderstorms still a good possibility across a portion of
the area this evening.  Latest short range guidance shows a broken
line of thunderstorms moving into the area between 23-02Z this
evening as the surface low moves into central Missouri.  There will
certainly be enough deep layer shear for severe weather across the
area with values in excess of 50kts.  Models are showing 0-1km
helicity of 300-500 m2/s2 as well.  The limiting factor will be
instability.  Latest guidance has backed off from yesterday`s runs
on CAPE values with MLCAPE barely able to crack 500 J/kg and even
MUCAPE unable to get above 1000 J/kg.  This is most likely due to
the aforementioned surface front being further south than previously
expected.  The 4km NCEP WRF looks reasonable with the broken line
moving into central Missouri around 02Z and then making it about 1/2
way to St. Louis before weakening.  Still should get some strong
thunderstorms west of the Mississippi river, with locally damaging
winds being the primary threat due to the strong kinematics.  Can`t
rule out inch hail or larger if we get some rotating storms.  And of
course there continues to be a small tornado threat due to the low
level shear/helicity...especially in the vicinity of the warm front
as it tries to lift north ahead of the surface low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

A deep full-latitude trof will begin digging across the Great Plains
Wednesday forcing another surface low to develop over north Texas.
The surface front from tonight`s storms looks to be over the Ozarks,
and it is forecast to jump northward as the low spins up during the
morning.  Models are having some trouble deciding where the boundary
will set up, but the consensus is near the I-44 corridor in Missouri
and the I-70 corridor in Illinois.  A strong low level jet will be
pointed right at the low level baroclinic zone.  All models print
out QPF in excess of 2 inches along and south of the boundary.
Strong deep layer shear in excess of 50kts will again be over the
area, and the atmosphere will be more unstable with MLCAPE in excess
of 1000 J/kg and MUCAPE as high as 1500-2000 J/kg across our
southern zones according to the NAM.  GFS is a little more
conservative, but it should be plenty unstable.  Additionally, the
boundary does`t look to be moving very quickly, so with the low
level jet pumping moisture into the baroclinic zone for an extended
period, there will be the potential for flooding.  Will have to keep
an eye on the heavy rain potential.

Quieter and colder weather is still expected for Thursday through
Saturday as the longwave trof digs into the eastern CONUS allowing a
strong Canadian high pressure system to drop down across the Great
Plains and Midwest.  Temperatures well below normal are expected
Friday and Saturday as the high drops southeast.  Northwest flow
aloft will carry a couple of shortwaves down across the area.  The
GFS prints out light precip as these shortwaves pass, but have kept
mentionable precip out for now as the best forcing and highest QPF
look to be west of our CWFA.  Additionally the surface ridge to our
northeast/east will be pumping cold dry air in under the shortwaves,
so it might be difficult to get precip to reach the ground.

Medium range guidance diverges Sunday into Monday with the warmer
GFS showing a FROPA and light rain Sunday, and the cooler ECMWF
staying dry.  ECMWF brings the front through Monday with precip,
while the GFS has high pressure over us.  As there was no clear
preference in solutions, stuck close to the ensemble guidance for
Sunday and Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Large area of showers and thunderstorms continues to develop and
move east across the northern half of Missouri, with all terminals
experiencing precipitation this morning. Temperature currently
below 32 degrees across far northern CWA, so rain is freezing on
elevated surfaces (freezing rain). Wind is easterly across the
area with low end MVFR to IFR ceiling.

This initial round of rainfall will move east/northeast of the
area by noon, with the warm front trying to lift north into the
Ozarks ahead of a developing area of low pressure to our
southwest. At this time it does not appear the front will lift far
enough north to change the wind direction from east/southeast at
all the terminals. This should help keep stratus deck around for
much of the day and into the evening.

The low and attendant front will advance northeast across the
region this evening and provide another chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the area. Some of these storms could be strong,
especially across KCOU (Central Missouri). The wind will shift to
the southwest behind the storm system with improving
conditions/clearing.

Specifics for KSTL:

Rain with embedded thunderstorms will impact the terminal this
morning with IFR ceilings. This activity should lift north of the
terminal by afternoon with a renewed threat of convection by this
evening with the actual area of low pressure and front. Wind will
shift to the southwest behind the system late tonight and clearing
of stratus should commence.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     55  46  71  41 /  90  80  30  70
Quincy          46  40  63  34 /  90  80  20  30
Columbia        58  43  69  38 /  80  80  30  50
Jefferson City  63  43  73  39 /  60  70  40  60
Salem           54  48  69  42 /  50  70  30  80
Farmington      65  48  72  42 /  30  70  50  80

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241109
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
609 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Strong shortwave now moving across the eastern Rockies is forcing
lee-side cyclogenesis over the Oklahoma pan handle.  The surface
cold front looks to be nearly stationary now over extreme southwest
Missouri at this time, but the low level jet is pouring warmer and
more moist air up over the colder air at the surface.  Warm
advection precip has spread across much of northern Missouri and
into west central Illinois at this time, as well as parts of
southwest Missouri.  Short range guidance is in good agreement that
this rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to expand and
overspread much of the area along and north of I-44/I-70 this
morning.  The rain cooled air as well as cool easterly flow should
help to keep the front south of I-70 in Missouri and I-64 in
Illinois today even though the warm advection will continue to be
quite strong.  The front will likely lift northward across some
portion of the area though.  South of the front temperatures will
likely get into the upper 60s to low and mid 70s, while north of the
front we`ll be hard pressed to break into the mid 50s.

Severe thunderstorms still a good possibility across a portion of
the area this evening.  Latest short range guidance shows a broken
line of thunderstorms moving into the area between 23-02Z this
evening as the surface low moves into central Missouri.  There will
certainly be enough deep layer shear for severe weather across the
area with values in excess of 50kts.  Models are showing 0-1km
helicity of 300-500 m2/s2 as well.  The limiting factor will be
instability.  Latest guidance has backed off from yesterday`s runs
on CAPE values with MLCAPE barely able to crack 500 J/kg and even
MUCAPE unable to get above 1000 J/kg.  This is most likely due to
the aforementioned surface front being further south than previously
expected.  The 4km NCEP WRF looks reasonable with the broken line
moving into central Missouri around 02Z and then making it about 1/2
way to St. Louis before weakening.  Still should get some strong
thunderstorms west of the Mississippi river, with locally damaging
winds being the primary threat due to the strong kinematics.  Can`t
rule out inch hail or larger if we get some rotating storms.  And of
course there continues to be a small tornado threat due to the low
level shear/helicity...especially in the vicinity of the warm front
as it tries to lift north ahead of the surface low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

A deep full-latitude trof will begin digging across the Great Plains
Wednesday forcing another surface low to develop over north Texas.
The surface front from tonight`s storms looks to be over the Ozarks,
and it is forecast to jump northward as the low spins up during the
morning.  Models are having some trouble deciding where the boundary
will set up, but the consensus is near the I-44 corridor in Missouri
and the I-70 corridor in Illinois.  A strong low level jet will be
pointed right at the low level baroclinic zone.  All models print
out QPF in excess of 2 inches along and south of the boundary.
Strong deep layer shear in excess of 50kts will again be over the
area, and the atmosphere will be more unstable with MLCAPE in excess
of 1000 J/kg and MUCAPE as high as 1500-2000 J/kg across our
southern zones according to the NAM.  GFS is a little more
conservative, but it should be plenty unstable.  Additionally, the
boundary does`t look to be moving very quickly, so with the low
level jet pumping moisture into the baroclinic zone for an extended
period, there will be the potential for flooding.  Will have to keep
an eye on the heavy rain potential.

Quieter and colder weather is still expected for Thursday through
Saturday as the longwave trof digs into the eastern CONUS allowing a
strong Canadian high pressure system to drop down across the Great
Plains and Midwest.  Temperatures well below normal are expected
Friday and Saturday as the high drops southeast.  Northwest flow
aloft will carry a couple of shortwaves down across the area.  The
GFS prints out light precip as these shortwaves pass, but have kept
mentionable precip out for now as the best forcing and highest QPF
look to be west of our CWFA.  Additionally the surface ridge to our
northeast/east will be pumping cold dry air in under the shortwaves,
so it might be difficult to get precip to reach the ground.

Medium range guidance diverges Sunday into Monday with the warmer
GFS showing a FROPA and light rain Sunday, and the cooler ECMWF
staying dry.  ECMWF brings the front through Monday with precip,
while the GFS has high pressure over us.  As there was no clear
preference in solutions, stuck close to the ensemble guidance for
Sunday and Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Large area of showers and thunderstorms continues to develop and
move east across the northern half of Missouri, with all terminals
experiencing precipitation this morning. Temperature currently
below 32 degrees across far northern CWA, so rain is freezing on
elevated surfaces (freezing rain). Wind is easterly across the
area with low end MVFR to IFR ceiling.

This initial round of rainfall will move east/northeast of the
area by noon, with the warm front trying to lift north into the
Ozarks ahead of a developing area of low pressure to our
southwest. At this time it does not appear the front will lift far
enough north to change the wind direction from east/southeast at
all the terminals. This should help keep stratus deck around for
much of the day and into the evening.

The low and attendant front will advance northeast across the
region this evening and provide another chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the area. Some of these storms could be strong,
especially across KCOU (Central Missouri). The wind will shift to
the southwest behind the storm system with improving
conditions/clearing.

Specifics for KSTL:

Rain with embedded thunderstorms will impact the terminal this
morning with IFR ceilings. This activity should lift north of the
terminal by afternoon with a renewed threat of convection by this
evening with the actual area of low pressure and front. Wind will
shift to the southwest behind the system late tonight and clearing
of stratus should commence.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     55  46  71  41 /  90  80  30  70
Quincy          46  40  63  34 /  90  80  20  30
Columbia        58  43  69  38 /  80  80  30  50
Jefferson City  63  43  73  39 /  60  70  40  60
Salem           54  48  69  42 /  50  70  30  80
Farmington      65  48  72  42 /  30  70  50  80

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 241109
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
609 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Strong shortwave now moving across the eastern Rockies is forcing
lee-side cyclogenesis over the Oklahoma pan handle.  The surface
cold front looks to be nearly stationary now over extreme southwest
Missouri at this time, but the low level jet is pouring warmer and
more moist air up over the colder air at the surface.  Warm
advection precip has spread across much of northern Missouri and
into west central Illinois at this time, as well as parts of
southwest Missouri.  Short range guidance is in good agreement that
this rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to expand and
overspread much of the area along and north of I-44/I-70 this
morning.  The rain cooled air as well as cool easterly flow should
help to keep the front south of I-70 in Missouri and I-64 in
Illinois today even though the warm advection will continue to be
quite strong.  The front will likely lift northward across some
portion of the area though.  South of the front temperatures will
likely get into the upper 60s to low and mid 70s, while north of the
front we`ll be hard pressed to break into the mid 50s.

Severe thunderstorms still a good possibility across a portion of
the area this evening.  Latest short range guidance shows a broken
line of thunderstorms moving into the area between 23-02Z this
evening as the surface low moves into central Missouri.  There will
certainly be enough deep layer shear for severe weather across the
area with values in excess of 50kts.  Models are showing 0-1km
helicity of 300-500 m2/s2 as well.  The limiting factor will be
instability.  Latest guidance has backed off from yesterday`s runs
on CAPE values with MLCAPE barely able to crack 500 J/kg and even
MUCAPE unable to get above 1000 J/kg.  This is most likely due to
the aforementioned surface front being further south than previously
expected.  The 4km NCEP WRF looks reasonable with the broken line
moving into central Missouri around 02Z and then making it about 1/2
way to St. Louis before weakening.  Still should get some strong
thunderstorms west of the Mississippi river, with locally damaging
winds being the primary threat due to the strong kinematics.  Can`t
rule out inch hail or larger if we get some rotating storms.  And of
course there continues to be a small tornado threat due to the low
level shear/helicity...especially in the vicinity of the warm front
as it tries to lift north ahead of the surface low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

A deep full-latitude trof will begin digging across the Great Plains
Wednesday forcing another surface low to develop over north Texas.
The surface front from tonight`s storms looks to be over the Ozarks,
and it is forecast to jump northward as the low spins up during the
morning.  Models are having some trouble deciding where the boundary
will set up, but the consensus is near the I-44 corridor in Missouri
and the I-70 corridor in Illinois.  A strong low level jet will be
pointed right at the low level baroclinic zone.  All models print
out QPF in excess of 2 inches along and south of the boundary.
Strong deep layer shear in excess of 50kts will again be over the
area, and the atmosphere will be more unstable with MLCAPE in excess
of 1000 J/kg and MUCAPE as high as 1500-2000 J/kg across our
southern zones according to the NAM.  GFS is a little more
conservative, but it should be plenty unstable.  Additionally, the
boundary does`t look to be moving very quickly, so with the low
level jet pumping moisture into the baroclinic zone for an extended
period, there will be the potential for flooding.  Will have to keep
an eye on the heavy rain potential.

Quieter and colder weather is still expected for Thursday through
Saturday as the longwave trof digs into the eastern CONUS allowing a
strong Canadian high pressure system to drop down across the Great
Plains and Midwest.  Temperatures well below normal are expected
Friday and Saturday as the high drops southeast.  Northwest flow
aloft will carry a couple of shortwaves down across the area.  The
GFS prints out light precip as these shortwaves pass, but have kept
mentionable precip out for now as the best forcing and highest QPF
look to be west of our CWFA.  Additionally the surface ridge to our
northeast/east will be pumping cold dry air in under the shortwaves,
so it might be difficult to get precip to reach the ground.

Medium range guidance diverges Sunday into Monday with the warmer
GFS showing a FROPA and light rain Sunday, and the cooler ECMWF
staying dry.  ECMWF brings the front through Monday with precip,
while the GFS has high pressure over us.  As there was no clear
preference in solutions, stuck close to the ensemble guidance for
Sunday and Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Large area of showers and thunderstorms continues to develop and
move east across the northern half of Missouri, with all terminals
experiencing precipitation this morning. Temperature currently
below 32 degrees across far northern CWA, so rain is freezing on
elevated surfaces (freezing rain). Wind is easterly across the
area with low end MVFR to IFR ceiling.

This initial round of rainfall will move east/northeast of the
area by noon, with the warm front trying to lift north into the
Ozarks ahead of a developing area of low pressure to our
southwest. At this time it does not appear the front will lift far
enough north to change the wind direction from east/southeast at
all the terminals. This should help keep stratus deck around for
much of the day and into the evening.

The low and attendant front will advance northeast across the
region this evening and provide another chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the area. Some of these storms could be strong,
especially across KCOU (Central Missouri). The wind will shift to
the southwest behind the storm system with improving
conditions/clearing.

Specifics for KSTL:

Rain with embedded thunderstorms will impact the terminal this
morning with IFR ceilings. This activity should lift north of the
terminal by afternoon with a renewed threat of convection by this
evening with the actual area of low pressure and front. Wind will
shift to the southwest behind the system late tonight and clearing
of stratus should commence.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     55  46  71  41 /  90  80  30  70
Quincy          46  40  63  34 /  90  80  20  30
Columbia        58  43  69  38 /  80  80  30  50
Jefferson City  63  43  73  39 /  60  70  40  60
Salem           54  48  69  42 /  50  70  30  80
Farmington      65  48  72  42 /  30  70  50  80

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241109
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
609 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Strong shortwave now moving across the eastern Rockies is forcing
lee-side cyclogenesis over the Oklahoma pan handle.  The surface
cold front looks to be nearly stationary now over extreme southwest
Missouri at this time, but the low level jet is pouring warmer and
more moist air up over the colder air at the surface.  Warm
advection precip has spread across much of northern Missouri and
into west central Illinois at this time, as well as parts of
southwest Missouri.  Short range guidance is in good agreement that
this rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to expand and
overspread much of the area along and north of I-44/I-70 this
morning.  The rain cooled air as well as cool easterly flow should
help to keep the front south of I-70 in Missouri and I-64 in
Illinois today even though the warm advection will continue to be
quite strong.  The front will likely lift northward across some
portion of the area though.  South of the front temperatures will
likely get into the upper 60s to low and mid 70s, while north of the
front we`ll be hard pressed to break into the mid 50s.

Severe thunderstorms still a good possibility across a portion of
the area this evening.  Latest short range guidance shows a broken
line of thunderstorms moving into the area between 23-02Z this
evening as the surface low moves into central Missouri.  There will
certainly be enough deep layer shear for severe weather across the
area with values in excess of 50kts.  Models are showing 0-1km
helicity of 300-500 m2/s2 as well.  The limiting factor will be
instability.  Latest guidance has backed off from yesterday`s runs
on CAPE values with MLCAPE barely able to crack 500 J/kg and even
MUCAPE unable to get above 1000 J/kg.  This is most likely due to
the aforementioned surface front being further south than previously
expected.  The 4km NCEP WRF looks reasonable with the broken line
moving into central Missouri around 02Z and then making it about 1/2
way to St. Louis before weakening.  Still should get some strong
thunderstorms west of the Mississippi river, with locally damaging
winds being the primary threat due to the strong kinematics.  Can`t
rule out inch hail or larger if we get some rotating storms.  And of
course there continues to be a small tornado threat due to the low
level shear/helicity...especially in the vicinity of the warm front
as it tries to lift north ahead of the surface low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

A deep full-latitude trof will begin digging across the Great Plains
Wednesday forcing another surface low to develop over north Texas.
The surface front from tonight`s storms looks to be over the Ozarks,
and it is forecast to jump northward as the low spins up during the
morning.  Models are having some trouble deciding where the boundary
will set up, but the consensus is near the I-44 corridor in Missouri
and the I-70 corridor in Illinois.  A strong low level jet will be
pointed right at the low level baroclinic zone.  All models print
out QPF in excess of 2 inches along and south of the boundary.
Strong deep layer shear in excess of 50kts will again be over the
area, and the atmosphere will be more unstable with MLCAPE in excess
of 1000 J/kg and MUCAPE as high as 1500-2000 J/kg across our
southern zones according to the NAM.  GFS is a little more
conservative, but it should be plenty unstable.  Additionally, the
boundary does`t look to be moving very quickly, so with the low
level jet pumping moisture into the baroclinic zone for an extended
period, there will be the potential for flooding.  Will have to keep
an eye on the heavy rain potential.

Quieter and colder weather is still expected for Thursday through
Saturday as the longwave trof digs into the eastern CONUS allowing a
strong Canadian high pressure system to drop down across the Great
Plains and Midwest.  Temperatures well below normal are expected
Friday and Saturday as the high drops southeast.  Northwest flow
aloft will carry a couple of shortwaves down across the area.  The
GFS prints out light precip as these shortwaves pass, but have kept
mentionable precip out for now as the best forcing and highest QPF
look to be west of our CWFA.  Additionally the surface ridge to our
northeast/east will be pumping cold dry air in under the shortwaves,
so it might be difficult to get precip to reach the ground.

Medium range guidance diverges Sunday into Monday with the warmer
GFS showing a FROPA and light rain Sunday, and the cooler ECMWF
staying dry.  ECMWF brings the front through Monday with precip,
while the GFS has high pressure over us.  As there was no clear
preference in solutions, stuck close to the ensemble guidance for
Sunday and Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Large area of showers and thunderstorms continues to develop and
move east across the northern half of Missouri, with all terminals
experiencing precipitation this morning. Temperature currently
below 32 degrees across far northern CWA, so rain is freezing on
elevated surfaces (freezing rain). Wind is easterly across the
area with low end MVFR to IFR ceiling.

This initial round of rainfall will move east/northeast of the
area by noon, with the warm front trying to lift north into the
Ozarks ahead of a developing area of low pressure to our
southwest. At this time it does not appear the front will lift far
enough north to change the wind direction from east/southeast at
all the terminals. This should help keep stratus deck around for
much of the day and into the evening.

The low and attendant front will advance northeast across the
region this evening and provide another chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the area. Some of these storms could be strong,
especially across KCOU (Central Missouri). The wind will shift to
the southwest behind the storm system with improving
conditions/clearing.

Specifics for KSTL:

Rain with embedded thunderstorms will impact the terminal this
morning with IFR ceilings. This activity should lift north of the
terminal by afternoon with a renewed threat of convection by this
evening with the actual area of low pressure and front. Wind will
shift to the southwest behind the system late tonight and clearing
of stratus should commence.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     55  46  71  41 /  90  80  30  70
Quincy          46  40  63  34 /  90  80  20  30
Columbia        58  43  69  38 /  80  80  30  50
Jefferson City  63  43  73  39 /  60  70  40  60
Salem           54  48  69  42 /  50  70  30  80
Farmington      65  48  72  42 /  30  70  50  80

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 240936
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
436 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Strong shortwave now moving across the eastern Rockies is forcing
lee-side cyclogenesis over the Oklahoma pan handle.  The surface
cold front looks to be nearly stationary now over extreme southwest
Missouri at this time, but the low level jet is pouring warmer and
more moist air up over the colder air at the surface.  Warm
advection precip has spread across much of northern Missouri and
into west central Illinois at this time, as well as parts of
southwest Missouri.  Short range guidance is in good agreement that
this rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to expand and
overspread much of the area along and north of I-44/I-70 this
morning.  The rain cooled air as well as cool easterly flow should
help to keep the front south of I-70 in Missouri and I-64 in
Illinois today even though the warm advection will continue to be
quite strong.  The front will likely lift northward across some
portion of the area though.  South of the front temperatures will
likely get into the upper 60s to low and mid 70s, while north of the
front we`ll be hard pressed to break into the mid 50s.

Severe thunderstorms still a good possibility across a portion of
the area this evening.  Latest short range guidance shows a broken
line of thunderstorms moving into the area between 23-02Z this
evening as the surface low moves into central Missouri.  There will
certainly be enough deep layer shear for severe weather across the
area with values in excess of 50kts.  Models are showing 0-1km
helicity of 300-500 m2/s2 as well.  The limiting factor will be
instability.  Latest guidance has backed off from yesterday`s runs
on CAPE values with MLCAPE barely able to crack 500 J/kg and even
MUCAPE unable to get above 1000 J/kg.  This is most likely due to
the aforementioned surface front being further south than previously
expected.  The 4km NCEP WRF looks reasonable with the broken line
moving into central Missouri around 02Z and then making it about 1/2
way to St. Louis before weakening.  Still should get some strong
thunderstorms west of the Mississippi river, with locally damaging
winds being the primary threat due to the strong kinematics.  Can`t
rule out inch hail or larger if we get some rotating storms.  And of
course there continues to be a small tornado threat due to the low
level shear/helicity...especially in the vicinity of the warm front
as it tries to lift north ahead of the surface low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

A deep full-latitude trof will begin digging across the Great Plains
Wednesday forcing another surface low to develop over north Texas.
The surface front from tonight`s storms looks to be over the Ozarks,
and it is forecast to jump northward as the low spins up during the
morning.  Models are having some trouble deciding where the boundary
will set up, but the consensus is near the I-44 corridor in Missouri
and the I-70 corridor in Illinois.  A strong low level jet will be
pointed right at the low level baroclinic zone.  All models print
out QPF in excess of 2 inches along and south of the boundary.
Strong deep layer shear in excess of 50kts will again be over the
area, and the atmosphere will be more unstable with MLCAPE in excess
of 1000 J/kg and MUCAPE as high as 1500-2000 J/kg across our
southern zones according to the NAM.  GFS is a little more
conservative, but it should be plenty unstable.  Additionally, the
boundary does`t look to be moving very quickly, so with the low
level jet pumping moisture into the baroclinic zone for an extended
period, there will be the potential for flooding.  Will have to keep
an eye on the heavy rain potential.

Quieter and colder weather is still expected for Thursday through
Saturday as the longwave trof digs into the eastern CONUS allowing a
strong Canadian high pressure system to drop down across the Great
Plains and Midwest.  Temperatures well below normal are expected
Friday and Saturday as the high drops southeast.  Northwest flow
aloft will carry a couple of shortwaves down across the area.  The
GFS prints out light precip as these shortwaves pass, but have kept
mentionable precip out for now as the best forcing and highest QPF
look to be west of our CWFA.  Additionally the surface ridge to our
northeast/east will be pumping cold dry air in under the shortwaves,
so it might be difficult to get precip to reach the ground.

Medium range guidance diverges Sunday into Monday with the warmer
GFS showing a FROPA and light rain Sunday, and the cooler ECMWF
staying dry.  ECMWF brings the front through Monday with precip,
while the GFS has high pressure over us.  As there was no clear
preference in solutions, stuck close to the ensemble guidance for
Sunday and Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

Cold front has shifted south of the taf sites this evening. Post
frontal, MVFR stratus clouds has moved into UIN and will likely sag
southward into the other taf sites late tonight. A s-swly low
level jet will bring low level temperature and moisture advection
over this front leading to elevated convection late tonight and
Tuesday morning for the taf sites. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms will move into COU and UIN late tonight and into the
St Louis metro area early Tuesday morning. Surface temperatures
will likely drop to around 32 degrees in UIN around 12Z Tuesday
leading to a brief period of freezing rain.  Most of the afternoon
may be quiet, but another round of convection is expected to move
through the taf sites Tuesday evening as an upper level
disturbance and weak surface low approaches. Nely surface wind
will gradually veer around to an e-sely direction on Tuesday, and
a s-swly direction Tuesday evening.

Specifics for KSTL:Low level MVFR clouds will likely sag
southward into STL shortly after 06Z Tuesday. Showers and a few
thunderstorms should move through STL Tuesday morning, then a
break in the convection is forecast Tuesday afternoon, with
another round of convection Tuesday evening. The nely surface wind
will veer around to an ely direction Tuesday morning, then to a
swly direction by late Tuesday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     55  46  71  41 /  80  80  30  70
Quincy          46  40  63  34 /  90  80  20  30
Columbia        58  43  69  38 /  70  80  30  50
Jefferson City  63  43  73  39 /  60  70  40  60
Salem           54  48  69  42 /  50  70  30  80
Farmington      65  48  72  42 /  30  70  50  80

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 240936
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
436 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Strong shortwave now moving across the eastern Rockies is forcing
lee-side cyclogenesis over the Oklahoma pan handle.  The surface
cold front looks to be nearly stationary now over extreme southwest
Missouri at this time, but the low level jet is pouring warmer and
more moist air up over the colder air at the surface.  Warm
advection precip has spread across much of northern Missouri and
into west central Illinois at this time, as well as parts of
southwest Missouri.  Short range guidance is in good agreement that
this rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to expand and
overspread much of the area along and north of I-44/I-70 this
morning.  The rain cooled air as well as cool easterly flow should
help to keep the front south of I-70 in Missouri and I-64 in
Illinois today even though the warm advection will continue to be
quite strong.  The front will likely lift northward across some
portion of the area though.  South of the front temperatures will
likely get into the upper 60s to low and mid 70s, while north of the
front we`ll be hard pressed to break into the mid 50s.

Severe thunderstorms still a good possibility across a portion of
the area this evening.  Latest short range guidance shows a broken
line of thunderstorms moving into the area between 23-02Z this
evening as the surface low moves into central Missouri.  There will
certainly be enough deep layer shear for severe weather across the
area with values in excess of 50kts.  Models are showing 0-1km
helicity of 300-500 m2/s2 as well.  The limiting factor will be
instability.  Latest guidance has backed off from yesterday`s runs
on CAPE values with MLCAPE barely able to crack 500 J/kg and even
MUCAPE unable to get above 1000 J/kg.  This is most likely due to
the aforementioned surface front being further south than previously
expected.  The 4km NCEP WRF looks reasonable with the broken line
moving into central Missouri around 02Z and then making it about 1/2
way to St. Louis before weakening.  Still should get some strong
thunderstorms west of the Mississippi river, with locally damaging
winds being the primary threat due to the strong kinematics.  Can`t
rule out inch hail or larger if we get some rotating storms.  And of
course there continues to be a small tornado threat due to the low
level shear/helicity...especially in the vicinity of the warm front
as it tries to lift north ahead of the surface low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

A deep full-latitude trof will begin digging across the Great Plains
Wednesday forcing another surface low to develop over north Texas.
The surface front from tonight`s storms looks to be over the Ozarks,
and it is forecast to jump northward as the low spins up during the
morning.  Models are having some trouble deciding where the boundary
will set up, but the consensus is near the I-44 corridor in Missouri
and the I-70 corridor in Illinois.  A strong low level jet will be
pointed right at the low level baroclinic zone.  All models print
out QPF in excess of 2 inches along and south of the boundary.
Strong deep layer shear in excess of 50kts will again be over the
area, and the atmosphere will be more unstable with MLCAPE in excess
of 1000 J/kg and MUCAPE as high as 1500-2000 J/kg across our
southern zones according to the NAM.  GFS is a little more
conservative, but it should be plenty unstable.  Additionally, the
boundary does`t look to be moving very quickly, so with the low
level jet pumping moisture into the baroclinic zone for an extended
period, there will be the potential for flooding.  Will have to keep
an eye on the heavy rain potential.

Quieter and colder weather is still expected for Thursday through
Saturday as the longwave trof digs into the eastern CONUS allowing a
strong Canadian high pressure system to drop down across the Great
Plains and Midwest.  Temperatures well below normal are expected
Friday and Saturday as the high drops southeast.  Northwest flow
aloft will carry a couple of shortwaves down across the area.  The
GFS prints out light precip as these shortwaves pass, but have kept
mentionable precip out for now as the best forcing and highest QPF
look to be west of our CWFA.  Additionally the surface ridge to our
northeast/east will be pumping cold dry air in under the shortwaves,
so it might be difficult to get precip to reach the ground.

Medium range guidance diverges Sunday into Monday with the warmer
GFS showing a FROPA and light rain Sunday, and the cooler ECMWF
staying dry.  ECMWF brings the front through Monday with precip,
while the GFS has high pressure over us.  As there was no clear
preference in solutions, stuck close to the ensemble guidance for
Sunday and Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

Cold front has shifted south of the taf sites this evening. Post
frontal, MVFR stratus clouds has moved into UIN and will likely sag
southward into the other taf sites late tonight. A s-swly low
level jet will bring low level temperature and moisture advection
over this front leading to elevated convection late tonight and
Tuesday morning for the taf sites. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms will move into COU and UIN late tonight and into the
St Louis metro area early Tuesday morning. Surface temperatures
will likely drop to around 32 degrees in UIN around 12Z Tuesday
leading to a brief period of freezing rain.  Most of the afternoon
may be quiet, but another round of convection is expected to move
through the taf sites Tuesday evening as an upper level
disturbance and weak surface low approaches. Nely surface wind
will gradually veer around to an e-sely direction on Tuesday, and
a s-swly direction Tuesday evening.

Specifics for KSTL:Low level MVFR clouds will likely sag
southward into STL shortly after 06Z Tuesday. Showers and a few
thunderstorms should move through STL Tuesday morning, then a
break in the convection is forecast Tuesday afternoon, with
another round of convection Tuesday evening. The nely surface wind
will veer around to an ely direction Tuesday morning, then to a
swly direction by late Tuesday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     55  46  71  41 /  80  80  30  70
Quincy          46  40  63  34 /  90  80  20  30
Columbia        58  43  69  38 /  70  80  30  50
Jefferson City  63  43  73  39 /  60  70  40  60
Salem           54  48  69  42 /  50  70  30  80
Farmington      65  48  72  42 /  30  70  50  80

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240857
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Strong shortwave now moving across the eastern Rockies is forcing
lee-side cyclogenesis over the Oklahoma pan handle.  The surface
cold front looks to be nearly stationary now over extreme southwest
Missouri at this time, but the low level jet is pouring warmer and
more moist air up over the colder air at the surface.  Warm
advection precip has spread across much of northern Missouri and
into west central Illinois at this time, as well as parts of
southwest Missouri.  Short range guidance is in good agreement that
this rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to expand and
overspread much of the area along and north of I-44/I-70 this
morning.  The rain cooled air as well as cool easterly flow should
help to keep the front south of I-70 in Missouri and I-64 in
Illinois today even though the warm advection will continue to be
quite strong.  The front will likely lift northward across some
portion of the area though.  South of the front temperatures will
likely get into the upper 60s to low and mid 70s, while north of the
front we`ll be hard pressed to break into the mid 50s.

Severe thunderstorms still a good possibility across a portion of
the area this evening.  Latest short range guidance shows a broken
line of thunderstorms moving into the area between 23-02Z this
evening as the surface low moves into central Missouri.  There will
certainly be enough deep layer shear for severe weather across the
area with values in excess of 50kts.  Models are showing 0-1km
helicity of 300-500 m2/s2 as well.  The limiting factor will be
instability.  Latest guidance has backed off from yesterday`s runs
on CAPE values with MLCAPE barely able to crack 500 J/kg and even
MUCAPE unable to get above 1000 J/kg.  This is most likely due to
the aforementioned surface front being further south than previously
expected.  The 4km NCEP WRF looks reasonable with the broken line
moving into central Missouri around 02Z and then making it about 1/2
way to St. Louis before weakening.  Still should get some strong
thunderstorms west of the Mississippi river, with locally damaging
winds being the primary threat due to the strong kinematics.  Can`t
rule out inch hail or larger if we get some rotating storms.  And of
course there continues to be a small tornado threat due to the low
level shear/helicity...especially in the vicinity of the warm front
as it tries to lift north ahead of the surface low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

A relatively active 2 day period will continue to unfold Tuesday
into Wednesday. The initial wave of precipitation associated with
the LLJ and a lead migratory short wave will pass to the east of
the CWA by midday with the greatest concentration during the
morning continuing across the northern half of the CWA. The second
wave of showers and thunderstorms is expected during the later
part of the afternoon and especially in the evening. A rather
impressive fast-moving and negatively tilted short wave trof will
quickly move across the region during the evening accompanied by
significant large scale ascent, strengthening low-mid level wind
fields and promoting the eastward advance of steep mid level lapse
rates. This second wave should develop from western MO southwestward
during the afternoon and spread east with the advancing upper wave
and attendant surface low and shifting LLJ. Initially during the
later afternoon the majority of the convection appears elevated,
however a weakening warm sector CAP in the evening should result
in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms moving across
the area. The best combination of instability and shear and hence
severe threat appears to be to the west of the CWA however there
will be at least a threat of isolated strong-severe storms during
the evening, especially across southern half of MO into southern
IL.

The surface low moves into the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning
and the front doesn`t make much southward penetration becoming
stationary across southern IL-southern MO-northern OK. This front
will then lift northward during the day on Wednesday setting the
stage for the final round of showers and thunderstorms. Moisture
and instability will be more favorable with this later round due
to continued presence of steep mid level lapse rates and
advection. This instability and rather strong westerly deep layer
shear will provide favorable conditions for organized severe
storms along and south of the cold front across the southern
2/3rds of the CWA from the afternoon and into the evening. Heavy
convective rainfall across southern sections could ultimately
prompt the need for a flash flood watch down the road in future
forecasts.

Much cooler weather is expected in the wake of the front on
Thursday with perhaps some lingering rain across southern sections
in the morning. The below average/cold temperatures will persist
on Friday and into Saturday as high pressure dominates and a deep
long wave trof temporarily elvolves over the eastern U.S.. Growers
and gardners should take notice as Saturday morning lows will be
well into the 20s. Temperatures will then warm-up on Sunday as
heights aloft rise and low level warm advection gets going with
seasonable highs expected.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

Cold front has shifted south of the taf sites this evening. Post
frontal, MVFR stratus clouds has moved into UIN and will likely sag
southward into the other taf sites late tonight. A s-swly low
level jet will bring low level temperature and moisture advection
over this front leading to elevated convection late tonight and
Tuesday morning for the taf sites. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms will move into COU and UIN late tonight and into the
St Louis metro area early Tuesday morning. Surface temperatures
will likely drop to around 32 degrees in UIN around 12Z Tuesday
leading to a brief period of freezing rain.  Most of the afternoon
may be quiet, but another round of convection is expected to move
through the taf sites Tuesday evening as an upper level
disturbance and weak surface low approaches. Nely surface wind
will gradually veer around to an e-sely direction on Tuesday, and
a s-swly direction Tuesday evening.

Specifics for KSTL:Low level MVFR clouds will likely sag
southward into STL shortly after 06Z Tuesday. Showers and a few
thunderstorms should move through STL Tuesday morning, then a
break in the convection is forecast Tuesday afternoon, with
another round of convection Tuesday evening. The nely surface wind
will veer around to an ely direction Tuesday morning, then to a
swly direction by late Tuesday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     55  46  71  41 /  80  80  30  70
Quincy          46  40  63  34 /  90  80  20  30
Columbia        58  43  69  38 /  70  80  30  50
Jefferson City  63  43  73  39 /  60  70  40  60
Salem           54  48  69  42 /  50  70  30  80
Farmington      65  48  72  42 /  30  70  50  80

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 240857
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Strong shortwave now moving across the eastern Rockies is forcing
lee-side cyclogenesis over the Oklahoma pan handle.  The surface
cold front looks to be nearly stationary now over extreme southwest
Missouri at this time, but the low level jet is pouring warmer and
more moist air up over the colder air at the surface.  Warm
advection precip has spread across much of northern Missouri and
into west central Illinois at this time, as well as parts of
southwest Missouri.  Short range guidance is in good agreement that
this rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to expand and
overspread much of the area along and north of I-44/I-70 this
morning.  The rain cooled air as well as cool easterly flow should
help to keep the front south of I-70 in Missouri and I-64 in
Illinois today even though the warm advection will continue to be
quite strong.  The front will likely lift northward across some
portion of the area though.  South of the front temperatures will
likely get into the upper 60s to low and mid 70s, while north of the
front we`ll be hard pressed to break into the mid 50s.

Severe thunderstorms still a good possibility across a portion of
the area this evening.  Latest short range guidance shows a broken
line of thunderstorms moving into the area between 23-02Z this
evening as the surface low moves into central Missouri.  There will
certainly be enough deep layer shear for severe weather across the
area with values in excess of 50kts.  Models are showing 0-1km
helicity of 300-500 m2/s2 as well.  The limiting factor will be
instability.  Latest guidance has backed off from yesterday`s runs
on CAPE values with MLCAPE barely able to crack 500 J/kg and even
MUCAPE unable to get above 1000 J/kg.  This is most likely due to
the aforementioned surface front being further south than previously
expected.  The 4km NCEP WRF looks reasonable with the broken line
moving into central Missouri around 02Z and then making it about 1/2
way to St. Louis before weakening.  Still should get some strong
thunderstorms west of the Mississippi river, with locally damaging
winds being the primary threat due to the strong kinematics.  Can`t
rule out inch hail or larger if we get some rotating storms.  And of
course there continues to be a small tornado threat due to the low
level shear/helicity...especially in the vicinity of the warm front
as it tries to lift north ahead of the surface low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

A relatively active 2 day period will continue to unfold Tuesday
into Wednesday. The initial wave of precipitation associated with
the LLJ and a lead migratory short wave will pass to the east of
the CWA by midday with the greatest concentration during the
morning continuing across the northern half of the CWA. The second
wave of showers and thunderstorms is expected during the later
part of the afternoon and especially in the evening. A rather
impressive fast-moving and negatively tilted short wave trof will
quickly move across the region during the evening accompanied by
significant large scale ascent, strengthening low-mid level wind
fields and promoting the eastward advance of steep mid level lapse
rates. This second wave should develop from western MO southwestward
during the afternoon and spread east with the advancing upper wave
and attendant surface low and shifting LLJ. Initially during the
later afternoon the majority of the convection appears elevated,
however a weakening warm sector CAP in the evening should result
in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms moving across
the area. The best combination of instability and shear and hence
severe threat appears to be to the west of the CWA however there
will be at least a threat of isolated strong-severe storms during
the evening, especially across southern half of MO into southern
IL.

The surface low moves into the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning
and the front doesn`t make much southward penetration becoming
stationary across southern IL-southern MO-northern OK. This front
will then lift northward during the day on Wednesday setting the
stage for the final round of showers and thunderstorms. Moisture
and instability will be more favorable with this later round due
to continued presence of steep mid level lapse rates and
advection. This instability and rather strong westerly deep layer
shear will provide favorable conditions for organized severe
storms along and south of the cold front across the southern
2/3rds of the CWA from the afternoon and into the evening. Heavy
convective rainfall across southern sections could ultimately
prompt the need for a flash flood watch down the road in future
forecasts.

Much cooler weather is expected in the wake of the front on
Thursday with perhaps some lingering rain across southern sections
in the morning. The below average/cold temperatures will persist
on Friday and into Saturday as high pressure dominates and a deep
long wave trof temporarily elvolves over the eastern U.S.. Growers
and gardners should take notice as Saturday morning lows will be
well into the 20s. Temperatures will then warm-up on Sunday as
heights aloft rise and low level warm advection gets going with
seasonable highs expected.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

Cold front has shifted south of the taf sites this evening. Post
frontal, MVFR stratus clouds has moved into UIN and will likely sag
southward into the other taf sites late tonight. A s-swly low
level jet will bring low level temperature and moisture advection
over this front leading to elevated convection late tonight and
Tuesday morning for the taf sites. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms will move into COU and UIN late tonight and into the
St Louis metro area early Tuesday morning. Surface temperatures
will likely drop to around 32 degrees in UIN around 12Z Tuesday
leading to a brief period of freezing rain.  Most of the afternoon
may be quiet, but another round of convection is expected to move
through the taf sites Tuesday evening as an upper level
disturbance and weak surface low approaches. Nely surface wind
will gradually veer around to an e-sely direction on Tuesday, and
a s-swly direction Tuesday evening.

Specifics for KSTL:Low level MVFR clouds will likely sag
southward into STL shortly after 06Z Tuesday. Showers and a few
thunderstorms should move through STL Tuesday morning, then a
break in the convection is forecast Tuesday afternoon, with
another round of convection Tuesday evening. The nely surface wind
will veer around to an ely direction Tuesday morning, then to a
swly direction by late Tuesday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     55  46  71  41 /  80  80  30  70
Quincy          46  40  63  34 /  90  80  20  30
Columbia        58  43  69  38 /  70  80  30  50
Jefferson City  63  43  73  39 /  60  70  40  60
Salem           54  48  69  42 /  50  70  30  80
Farmington      65  48  72  42 /  30  70  50  80

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240419
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1119 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 912 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

Two areas of clouds currently affecting the forecast area. The
first is an area of post-frontal low clouds that never quite
pushed as far south as originally anticipated but has nevertheless
resumed its southwestward push towards the CWA, but currently only
is over the far northern reaches. More is expected to move in
later tonight from central IL. Another area is much higher up in
elevation and the beginnings of our active wx that is in store for
this week. It has already moved past central MO and is pushing
east. One way or another, the forecast area will be cloudy at or
shortly after midnight.

Precipitation is rapidly developing over in southeast NE and
northeast KS in response to increasing and deepening lift from
several factors with this area of lift expected to expand
eastward, and should hold off on entering our forecast area until
after midnight with much of the development occurring late towards
daybreak for areas near STL metro and areas to the north and west.
Thunder chances look less now than they did but retained isolated
wording in for some areas, mainly over in central MO.

What is increasingly becoming a factor are temps in the northern
CWA, around UIN, where readings are already in the mid 30s.
With persistent low level CAA behind this front and some room to
drop due to dewpoint depressions, it now appears likely that much
of this area will drop to or just below 32F for a few hours late
tonight and Tuesday morning. This will result in some FZRA, but
thanks to temps not getting a chance to fall much below freezing
lately, surfaces should not be that cold and expected ice accums
will be minimal if any. Will have to further monitor this
overnight for any needed headlines, however.

Otherwise, rain with isolated TSRA early in the morning will
gradually push north during the morning, offering up a bit of a
break for most areas before the next round later Tuesday afternoon
fires up, where thunder composition will be more substantial.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

The cold front passing through the St. Louis region at this time
will continue moving southward becoming stationary from southern
KS along the MO/AR border and into the TN Valley late this evening.
This boundary will set the stage for an overrunning precipitation
event which will impact the area overnight and into Tuesday. A
stout southerly LLJ will ramp up this evening across the Plains
gradually veering to southwesterly overnight, resulting in strong
low level WAA/moisture convergence/lift north of I-70 with the
greatest focus across northeast MO and west central IL in the
09-12z period. Progged elevated instability is pretty meager this
far east, but sufficient to continue to mention thunder. Something
that will need to be monitored closely tonight is the temperatures
in this region across northeast MO and west central IL. High
pressure will be building into the area to the north of the front
and some of the guidance shows surface temps falling below
freezing while some keeps it above freezing. At this time I have
temps dropping to just above freezing, however if the air over
northern Illinois and Indiana advances this far east and/or there
is sufficient diabatic cooling we could see some freezing rain.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

A relatively active 2 day period will continue to unfold Tuesday
into Wednesday. The initial wave of precipitation associated with
the LLJ and a lead migratory short wave will pass to the east of
the CWA by midday with the greatest concentration during the
morning continuing across the northern half of the CWA. The second
wave of showers and thunderstorms is expected during the later
part of the afternoon and especially in the evening. A rather
impressive fast-moving and negatively tilted short wave trof will
quickly move across the region during the evening accompanied by
significant large scale ascent, strengthening low-mid level wind
fields and promoting the eastward advance of steep mid level lapse
rates. This second wave should develop from western MO southwestward
during the afternoon and spread east with the advancing upper wave
and attendant surface low and shifting LLJ. Initially during the
later afternoon the majority of the convection appears elevated,
however a weakening warm sector CAP in the evening should result
in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms moving across
the area. The best combination of instability and shear and hence
severe threat appears to be to the west of the CWA however there
will be at least a threat of isolated strong-severe storms during
the evening, especially across southern half of MO into southern
IL.

The surface low moves into the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning
and the front doesn`t make much southward penetration becoming
stationary across southern IL-southern MO-northern OK. This front
will then lift northward during the day on Wednesday setting the
stage for the final round of showers and thunderstorms. Moisture
and instability will be more favorable with this later round due
to continued presence of steep mid level lapse rates and
advection. This instability and rather strong westerly deep layer
shear will provide favorable conditions for organized severe
storms along and south of the cold front across the southern
2/3rds of the CWA from the afternoon and into the evening. Heavy
convective rainfall across southern sections could ultimately
prompt the need for a flash flood watch down the road in future
forecasts.

Much cooler weather is expected in the wake of the front on
Thursday with perhaps some lingering rain across southern sections
in the morning. The below average/cold temperatures will persist
on Friday and into Saturday as high pressure dominates and a deep
long wave trof temporarily elvolves over the eastern U.S.. Growers
and gardners should take notice as Saturday morning lows will be
well into the 20s. Temperatures will then warm-up on Sunday as
heights aloft rise and low level warm advection gets going with
seasonable highs expected.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

Cold front has shifted south of the taf sites this evening. Post
frontal, MVFR stratus clouds has moved into UIN and will likely sag
southward into the other taf sites late tonight. A s-swly low
level jet will bring low level temperature and moisture advection
over this front leading to elevated convection late tonight and
Tuesday morning for the taf sites. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms will move into COU and UIN late tonight and into the
St Louis metro area early Tuesday morning. Surface temperatures
will likely drop to around 32 degrees in UIN around 12Z Tuesday
leading to a brief period of freezing rain.  Most of the afternoon
may be quiet, but another round of convection is expected to move
through the taf sites Tuesday evening as an upper level
disturbance and weak surface low approaches. Nely surface wind
will gradually veer around to an e-sely direction on Tuesday, and
a s-swly direction Tuesday evening.

Specifics for KSTL:Low level MVFR clouds will likely sag
southward into STL shortly after 06Z Tuesday. Showers and a few
thunderstorms should move through STL Tuesday morning, then a
break in the convection is forecast Tuesday afternoon, with
another round of convection Tuesday evening. The nely surface wind
will veer around to an ely direction Tuesday morning, then to a
swly direction by late Tuesday night.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 240419
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1119 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 912 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

Two areas of clouds currently affecting the forecast area. The
first is an area of post-frontal low clouds that never quite
pushed as far south as originally anticipated but has nevertheless
resumed its southwestward push towards the CWA, but currently only
is over the far northern reaches. More is expected to move in
later tonight from central IL. Another area is much higher up in
elevation and the beginnings of our active wx that is in store for
this week. It has already moved past central MO and is pushing
east. One way or another, the forecast area will be cloudy at or
shortly after midnight.

Precipitation is rapidly developing over in southeast NE and
northeast KS in response to increasing and deepening lift from
several factors with this area of lift expected to expand
eastward, and should hold off on entering our forecast area until
after midnight with much of the development occurring late towards
daybreak for areas near STL metro and areas to the north and west.
Thunder chances look less now than they did but retained isolated
wording in for some areas, mainly over in central MO.

What is increasingly becoming a factor are temps in the northern
CWA, around UIN, where readings are already in the mid 30s.
With persistent low level CAA behind this front and some room to
drop due to dewpoint depressions, it now appears likely that much
of this area will drop to or just below 32F for a few hours late
tonight and Tuesday morning. This will result in some FZRA, but
thanks to temps not getting a chance to fall much below freezing
lately, surfaces should not be that cold and expected ice accums
will be minimal if any. Will have to further monitor this
overnight for any needed headlines, however.

Otherwise, rain with isolated TSRA early in the morning will
gradually push north during the morning, offering up a bit of a
break for most areas before the next round later Tuesday afternoon
fires up, where thunder composition will be more substantial.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

The cold front passing through the St. Louis region at this time
will continue moving southward becoming stationary from southern
KS along the MO/AR border and into the TN Valley late this evening.
This boundary will set the stage for an overrunning precipitation
event which will impact the area overnight and into Tuesday. A
stout southerly LLJ will ramp up this evening across the Plains
gradually veering to southwesterly overnight, resulting in strong
low level WAA/moisture convergence/lift north of I-70 with the
greatest focus across northeast MO and west central IL in the
09-12z period. Progged elevated instability is pretty meager this
far east, but sufficient to continue to mention thunder. Something
that will need to be monitored closely tonight is the temperatures
in this region across northeast MO and west central IL. High
pressure will be building into the area to the north of the front
and some of the guidance shows surface temps falling below
freezing while some keeps it above freezing. At this time I have
temps dropping to just above freezing, however if the air over
northern Illinois and Indiana advances this far east and/or there
is sufficient diabatic cooling we could see some freezing rain.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

A relatively active 2 day period will continue to unfold Tuesday
into Wednesday. The initial wave of precipitation associated with
the LLJ and a lead migratory short wave will pass to the east of
the CWA by midday with the greatest concentration during the
morning continuing across the northern half of the CWA. The second
wave of showers and thunderstorms is expected during the later
part of the afternoon and especially in the evening. A rather
impressive fast-moving and negatively tilted short wave trof will
quickly move across the region during the evening accompanied by
significant large scale ascent, strengthening low-mid level wind
fields and promoting the eastward advance of steep mid level lapse
rates. This second wave should develop from western MO southwestward
during the afternoon and spread east with the advancing upper wave
and attendant surface low and shifting LLJ. Initially during the
later afternoon the majority of the convection appears elevated,
however a weakening warm sector CAP in the evening should result
in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms moving across
the area. The best combination of instability and shear and hence
severe threat appears to be to the west of the CWA however there
will be at least a threat of isolated strong-severe storms during
the evening, especially across southern half of MO into southern
IL.

The surface low moves into the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning
and the front doesn`t make much southward penetration becoming
stationary across southern IL-southern MO-northern OK. This front
will then lift northward during the day on Wednesday setting the
stage for the final round of showers and thunderstorms. Moisture
and instability will be more favorable with this later round due
to continued presence of steep mid level lapse rates and
advection. This instability and rather strong westerly deep layer
shear will provide favorable conditions for organized severe
storms along and south of the cold front across the southern
2/3rds of the CWA from the afternoon and into the evening. Heavy
convective rainfall across southern sections could ultimately
prompt the need for a flash flood watch down the road in future
forecasts.

Much cooler weather is expected in the wake of the front on
Thursday with perhaps some lingering rain across southern sections
in the morning. The below average/cold temperatures will persist
on Friday and into Saturday as high pressure dominates and a deep
long wave trof temporarily elvolves over the eastern U.S.. Growers
and gardners should take notice as Saturday morning lows will be
well into the 20s. Temperatures will then warm-up on Sunday as
heights aloft rise and low level warm advection gets going with
seasonable highs expected.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

Cold front has shifted south of the taf sites this evening. Post
frontal, MVFR stratus clouds has moved into UIN and will likely sag
southward into the other taf sites late tonight. A s-swly low
level jet will bring low level temperature and moisture advection
over this front leading to elevated convection late tonight and
Tuesday morning for the taf sites. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms will move into COU and UIN late tonight and into the
St Louis metro area early Tuesday morning. Surface temperatures
will likely drop to around 32 degrees in UIN around 12Z Tuesday
leading to a brief period of freezing rain.  Most of the afternoon
may be quiet, but another round of convection is expected to move
through the taf sites Tuesday evening as an upper level
disturbance and weak surface low approaches. Nely surface wind
will gradually veer around to an e-sely direction on Tuesday, and
a s-swly direction Tuesday evening.

Specifics for KSTL:Low level MVFR clouds will likely sag
southward into STL shortly after 06Z Tuesday. Showers and a few
thunderstorms should move through STL Tuesday morning, then a
break in the convection is forecast Tuesday afternoon, with
another round of convection Tuesday evening. The nely surface wind
will veer around to an ely direction Tuesday morning, then to a
swly direction by late Tuesday night.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240419
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1119 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 912 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

Two areas of clouds currently affecting the forecast area. The
first is an area of post-frontal low clouds that never quite
pushed as far south as originally anticipated but has nevertheless
resumed its southwestward push towards the CWA, but currently only
is over the far northern reaches. More is expected to move in
later tonight from central IL. Another area is much higher up in
elevation and the beginnings of our active wx that is in store for
this week. It has already moved past central MO and is pushing
east. One way or another, the forecast area will be cloudy at or
shortly after midnight.

Precipitation is rapidly developing over in southeast NE and
northeast KS in response to increasing and deepening lift from
several factors with this area of lift expected to expand
eastward, and should hold off on entering our forecast area until
after midnight with much of the development occurring late towards
daybreak for areas near STL metro and areas to the north and west.
Thunder chances look less now than they did but retained isolated
wording in for some areas, mainly over in central MO.

What is increasingly becoming a factor are temps in the northern
CWA, around UIN, where readings are already in the mid 30s.
With persistent low level CAA behind this front and some room to
drop due to dewpoint depressions, it now appears likely that much
of this area will drop to or just below 32F for a few hours late
tonight and Tuesday morning. This will result in some FZRA, but
thanks to temps not getting a chance to fall much below freezing
lately, surfaces should not be that cold and expected ice accums
will be minimal if any. Will have to further monitor this
overnight for any needed headlines, however.

Otherwise, rain with isolated TSRA early in the morning will
gradually push north during the morning, offering up a bit of a
break for most areas before the next round later Tuesday afternoon
fires up, where thunder composition will be more substantial.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

The cold front passing through the St. Louis region at this time
will continue moving southward becoming stationary from southern
KS along the MO/AR border and into the TN Valley late this evening.
This boundary will set the stage for an overrunning precipitation
event which will impact the area overnight and into Tuesday. A
stout southerly LLJ will ramp up this evening across the Plains
gradually veering to southwesterly overnight, resulting in strong
low level WAA/moisture convergence/lift north of I-70 with the
greatest focus across northeast MO and west central IL in the
09-12z period. Progged elevated instability is pretty meager this
far east, but sufficient to continue to mention thunder. Something
that will need to be monitored closely tonight is the temperatures
in this region across northeast MO and west central IL. High
pressure will be building into the area to the north of the front
and some of the guidance shows surface temps falling below
freezing while some keeps it above freezing. At this time I have
temps dropping to just above freezing, however if the air over
northern Illinois and Indiana advances this far east and/or there
is sufficient diabatic cooling we could see some freezing rain.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

A relatively active 2 day period will continue to unfold Tuesday
into Wednesday. The initial wave of precipitation associated with
the LLJ and a lead migratory short wave will pass to the east of
the CWA by midday with the greatest concentration during the
morning continuing across the northern half of the CWA. The second
wave of showers and thunderstorms is expected during the later
part of the afternoon and especially in the evening. A rather
impressive fast-moving and negatively tilted short wave trof will
quickly move across the region during the evening accompanied by
significant large scale ascent, strengthening low-mid level wind
fields and promoting the eastward advance of steep mid level lapse
rates. This second wave should develop from western MO southwestward
during the afternoon and spread east with the advancing upper wave
and attendant surface low and shifting LLJ. Initially during the
later afternoon the majority of the convection appears elevated,
however a weakening warm sector CAP in the evening should result
in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms moving across
the area. The best combination of instability and shear and hence
severe threat appears to be to the west of the CWA however there
will be at least a threat of isolated strong-severe storms during
the evening, especially across southern half of MO into southern
IL.

The surface low moves into the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning
and the front doesn`t make much southward penetration becoming
stationary across southern IL-southern MO-northern OK. This front
will then lift northward during the day on Wednesday setting the
stage for the final round of showers and thunderstorms. Moisture
and instability will be more favorable with this later round due
to continued presence of steep mid level lapse rates and
advection. This instability and rather strong westerly deep layer
shear will provide favorable conditions for organized severe
storms along and south of the cold front across the southern
2/3rds of the CWA from the afternoon and into the evening. Heavy
convective rainfall across southern sections could ultimately
prompt the need for a flash flood watch down the road in future
forecasts.

Much cooler weather is expected in the wake of the front on
Thursday with perhaps some lingering rain across southern sections
in the morning. The below average/cold temperatures will persist
on Friday and into Saturday as high pressure dominates and a deep
long wave trof temporarily elvolves over the eastern U.S.. Growers
and gardners should take notice as Saturday morning lows will be
well into the 20s. Temperatures will then warm-up on Sunday as
heights aloft rise and low level warm advection gets going with
seasonable highs expected.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

Cold front has shifted south of the taf sites this evening. Post
frontal, MVFR stratus clouds has moved into UIN and will likely sag
southward into the other taf sites late tonight. A s-swly low
level jet will bring low level temperature and moisture advection
over this front leading to elevated convection late tonight and
Tuesday morning for the taf sites. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms will move into COU and UIN late tonight and into the
St Louis metro area early Tuesday morning. Surface temperatures
will likely drop to around 32 degrees in UIN around 12Z Tuesday
leading to a brief period of freezing rain.  Most of the afternoon
may be quiet, but another round of convection is expected to move
through the taf sites Tuesday evening as an upper level
disturbance and weak surface low approaches. Nely surface wind
will gradually veer around to an e-sely direction on Tuesday, and
a s-swly direction Tuesday evening.

Specifics for KSTL:Low level MVFR clouds will likely sag
southward into STL shortly after 06Z Tuesday. Showers and a few
thunderstorms should move through STL Tuesday morning, then a
break in the convection is forecast Tuesday afternoon, with
another round of convection Tuesday evening. The nely surface wind
will veer around to an ely direction Tuesday morning, then to a
swly direction by late Tuesday night.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 240419
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1119 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 912 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

Two areas of clouds currently affecting the forecast area. The
first is an area of post-frontal low clouds that never quite
pushed as far south as originally anticipated but has nevertheless
resumed its southwestward push towards the CWA, but currently only
is over the far northern reaches. More is expected to move in
later tonight from central IL. Another area is much higher up in
elevation and the beginnings of our active wx that is in store for
this week. It has already moved past central MO and is pushing
east. One way or another, the forecast area will be cloudy at or
shortly after midnight.

Precipitation is rapidly developing over in southeast NE and
northeast KS in response to increasing and deepening lift from
several factors with this area of lift expected to expand
eastward, and should hold off on entering our forecast area until
after midnight with much of the development occurring late towards
daybreak for areas near STL metro and areas to the north and west.
Thunder chances look less now than they did but retained isolated
wording in for some areas, mainly over in central MO.

What is increasingly becoming a factor are temps in the northern
CWA, around UIN, where readings are already in the mid 30s.
With persistent low level CAA behind this front and some room to
drop due to dewpoint depressions, it now appears likely that much
of this area will drop to or just below 32F for a few hours late
tonight and Tuesday morning. This will result in some FZRA, but
thanks to temps not getting a chance to fall much below freezing
lately, surfaces should not be that cold and expected ice accums
will be minimal if any. Will have to further monitor this
overnight for any needed headlines, however.

Otherwise, rain with isolated TSRA early in the morning will
gradually push north during the morning, offering up a bit of a
break for most areas before the next round later Tuesday afternoon
fires up, where thunder composition will be more substantial.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

The cold front passing through the St. Louis region at this time
will continue moving southward becoming stationary from southern
KS along the MO/AR border and into the TN Valley late this evening.
This boundary will set the stage for an overrunning precipitation
event which will impact the area overnight and into Tuesday. A
stout southerly LLJ will ramp up this evening across the Plains
gradually veering to southwesterly overnight, resulting in strong
low level WAA/moisture convergence/lift north of I-70 with the
greatest focus across northeast MO and west central IL in the
09-12z period. Progged elevated instability is pretty meager this
far east, but sufficient to continue to mention thunder. Something
that will need to be monitored closely tonight is the temperatures
in this region across northeast MO and west central IL. High
pressure will be building into the area to the north of the front
and some of the guidance shows surface temps falling below
freezing while some keeps it above freezing. At this time I have
temps dropping to just above freezing, however if the air over
northern Illinois and Indiana advances this far east and/or there
is sufficient diabatic cooling we could see some freezing rain.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

A relatively active 2 day period will continue to unfold Tuesday
into Wednesday. The initial wave of precipitation associated with
the LLJ and a lead migratory short wave will pass to the east of
the CWA by midday with the greatest concentration during the
morning continuing across the northern half of the CWA. The second
wave of showers and thunderstorms is expected during the later
part of the afternoon and especially in the evening. A rather
impressive fast-moving and negatively tilted short wave trof will
quickly move across the region during the evening accompanied by
significant large scale ascent, strengthening low-mid level wind
fields and promoting the eastward advance of steep mid level lapse
rates. This second wave should develop from western MO southwestward
during the afternoon and spread east with the advancing upper wave
and attendant surface low and shifting LLJ. Initially during the
later afternoon the majority of the convection appears elevated,
however a weakening warm sector CAP in the evening should result
in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms moving across
the area. The best combination of instability and shear and hence
severe threat appears to be to the west of the CWA however there
will be at least a threat of isolated strong-severe storms during
the evening, especially across southern half of MO into southern
IL.

The surface low moves into the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning
and the front doesn`t make much southward penetration becoming
stationary across southern IL-southern MO-northern OK. This front
will then lift northward during the day on Wednesday setting the
stage for the final round of showers and thunderstorms. Moisture
and instability will be more favorable with this later round due
to continued presence of steep mid level lapse rates and
advection. This instability and rather strong westerly deep layer
shear will provide favorable conditions for organized severe
storms along and south of the cold front across the southern
2/3rds of the CWA from the afternoon and into the evening. Heavy
convective rainfall across southern sections could ultimately
prompt the need for a flash flood watch down the road in future
forecasts.

Much cooler weather is expected in the wake of the front on
Thursday with perhaps some lingering rain across southern sections
in the morning. The below average/cold temperatures will persist
on Friday and into Saturday as high pressure dominates and a deep
long wave trof temporarily elvolves over the eastern U.S.. Growers
and gardners should take notice as Saturday morning lows will be
well into the 20s. Temperatures will then warm-up on Sunday as
heights aloft rise and low level warm advection gets going with
seasonable highs expected.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

Cold front has shifted south of the taf sites this evening. Post
frontal, MVFR stratus clouds has moved into UIN and will likely sag
southward into the other taf sites late tonight. A s-swly low
level jet will bring low level temperature and moisture advection
over this front leading to elevated convection late tonight and
Tuesday morning for the taf sites. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms will move into COU and UIN late tonight and into the
St Louis metro area early Tuesday morning. Surface temperatures
will likely drop to around 32 degrees in UIN around 12Z Tuesday
leading to a brief period of freezing rain.  Most of the afternoon
may be quiet, but another round of convection is expected to move
through the taf sites Tuesday evening as an upper level
disturbance and weak surface low approaches. Nely surface wind
will gradually veer around to an e-sely direction on Tuesday, and
a s-swly direction Tuesday evening.

Specifics for KSTL:Low level MVFR clouds will likely sag
southward into STL shortly after 06Z Tuesday. Showers and a few
thunderstorms should move through STL Tuesday morning, then a
break in the convection is forecast Tuesday afternoon, with
another round of convection Tuesday evening. The nely surface wind
will veer around to an ely direction Tuesday morning, then to a
swly direction by late Tuesday night.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







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