Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KLSX 051156
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
656 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

Expect yet another warm day today as high temperatures should climb
once again into the lower-mid 90s under mainly sunny skies.  Mixing
should be above 800mb. Mixing down 850mb temperatures around +20C
support high temperatures in the lower-mid 90s.  Heat index readings
will be close to 100 degrees given that dewpoints will be well into
the 60s if not 70 degrees at times.

Will also stick with a dry forecast as thunderstorms stayed over
eastern Illinois despite the atmosphere being unstable and uncapped
yesterday afternoon.  Conditions will be similar over the area today
with MUCAPES being in the 1000-2000 J/kg range with little CINH and
some of the CAMS showing some convective development by midday.
However, much like yesterday, there will be the mid-level ridge axis
over the region that should suppress thunderstorm development, so
will leave forecast dry for now.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

(Tonight through Monday)

Will keep forecast dry through late Sunday night as forecast
soundings are showing less instability tomorrow than today as the
ridge axis reorients itself southwest-northeast across the area.
Temperatures and humidity will be similar to today.  Chances of
showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase by late Sunday
night as the upper ridge shifts to the south and low level moisture
convergence increases over central and northeast Missouri.  Chances
will continue to increase over the area Monday and Monday night as
the upper ridge shifts farther south and the faster, upper flow and
eventually the surface cold front moves into northern Missouri and
central Illinois.  Have likely PoPs on Monday night over parts of
central and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois.

(Tuesday through Friday)

Cold front will be slow to move through the Missouri and Illinois as
a series of shortwave troughs move through the region during this
period.  First front will move through the area on Tuesday into
Wednesday followed by a secondary front that both the GFS and ECMWF
are showing that will move through late week.  Both the series of
shortwave troughs and the fronts will keep a persistent chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through next week.

Temperatures will begin to fall back to near normal behind the front
by mid to late next week...particularly with clouds and the chance
of rain.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

Fog at SUS should dissipate by 13-14Z this morning. Little
cloudiness can be expected this forecast period, except few-sct
diurnal cumulus clouds late this morning and this afternoon
around 5000-6000 feet in height. Light suface winds will become
s-sely later this morning with persistent surface ridging just
east of our area.

Specifics for KSTL: Surface wind should pick up to around 7 kts
later this morning into the afternoon, then weaken again tonight.
Just few-sct diurnal cumulus clouds expected late this morning and
this afternoon around 6000 feet in height.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 051156
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
656 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

Expect yet another warm day today as high temperatures should climb
once again into the lower-mid 90s under mainly sunny skies.  Mixing
should be above 800mb. Mixing down 850mb temperatures around +20C
support high temperatures in the lower-mid 90s.  Heat index readings
will be close to 100 degrees given that dewpoints will be well into
the 60s if not 70 degrees at times.

Will also stick with a dry forecast as thunderstorms stayed over
eastern Illinois despite the atmosphere being unstable and uncapped
yesterday afternoon.  Conditions will be similar over the area today
with MUCAPES being in the 1000-2000 J/kg range with little CINH and
some of the CAMS showing some convective development by midday.
However, much like yesterday, there will be the mid-level ridge axis
over the region that should suppress thunderstorm development, so
will leave forecast dry for now.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

(Tonight through Monday)

Will keep forecast dry through late Sunday night as forecast
soundings are showing less instability tomorrow than today as the
ridge axis reorients itself southwest-northeast across the area.
Temperatures and humidity will be similar to today.  Chances of
showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase by late Sunday
night as the upper ridge shifts to the south and low level moisture
convergence increases over central and northeast Missouri.  Chances
will continue to increase over the area Monday and Monday night as
the upper ridge shifts farther south and the faster, upper flow and
eventually the surface cold front moves into northern Missouri and
central Illinois.  Have likely PoPs on Monday night over parts of
central and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois.

(Tuesday through Friday)

Cold front will be slow to move through the Missouri and Illinois as
a series of shortwave troughs move through the region during this
period.  First front will move through the area on Tuesday into
Wednesday followed by a secondary front that both the GFS and ECMWF
are showing that will move through late week.  Both the series of
shortwave troughs and the fronts will keep a persistent chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through next week.

Temperatures will begin to fall back to near normal behind the front
by mid to late next week...particularly with clouds and the chance
of rain.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

Fog at SUS should dissipate by 13-14Z this morning. Little
cloudiness can be expected this forecast period, except few-sct
diurnal cumulus clouds late this morning and this afternoon
around 5000-6000 feet in height. Light suface winds will become
s-sely later this morning with persistent surface ridging just
east of our area.

Specifics for KSTL: Surface wind should pick up to around 7 kts
later this morning into the afternoon, then weaken again tonight.
Just few-sct diurnal cumulus clouds expected late this morning and
this afternoon around 6000 feet in height.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 051156
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
656 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

Expect yet another warm day today as high temperatures should climb
once again into the lower-mid 90s under mainly sunny skies.  Mixing
should be above 800mb. Mixing down 850mb temperatures around +20C
support high temperatures in the lower-mid 90s.  Heat index readings
will be close to 100 degrees given that dewpoints will be well into
the 60s if not 70 degrees at times.

Will also stick with a dry forecast as thunderstorms stayed over
eastern Illinois despite the atmosphere being unstable and uncapped
yesterday afternoon.  Conditions will be similar over the area today
with MUCAPES being in the 1000-2000 J/kg range with little CINH and
some of the CAMS showing some convective development by midday.
However, much like yesterday, there will be the mid-level ridge axis
over the region that should suppress thunderstorm development, so
will leave forecast dry for now.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

(Tonight through Monday)

Will keep forecast dry through late Sunday night as forecast
soundings are showing less instability tomorrow than today as the
ridge axis reorients itself southwest-northeast across the area.
Temperatures and humidity will be similar to today.  Chances of
showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase by late Sunday
night as the upper ridge shifts to the south and low level moisture
convergence increases over central and northeast Missouri.  Chances
will continue to increase over the area Monday and Monday night as
the upper ridge shifts farther south and the faster, upper flow and
eventually the surface cold front moves into northern Missouri and
central Illinois.  Have likely PoPs on Monday night over parts of
central and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois.

(Tuesday through Friday)

Cold front will be slow to move through the Missouri and Illinois as
a series of shortwave troughs move through the region during this
period.  First front will move through the area on Tuesday into
Wednesday followed by a secondary front that both the GFS and ECMWF
are showing that will move through late week.  Both the series of
shortwave troughs and the fronts will keep a persistent chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through next week.

Temperatures will begin to fall back to near normal behind the front
by mid to late next week...particularly with clouds and the chance
of rain.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

Fog at SUS should dissipate by 13-14Z this morning. Little
cloudiness can be expected this forecast period, except few-sct
diurnal cumulus clouds late this morning and this afternoon
around 5000-6000 feet in height. Light suface winds will become
s-sely later this morning with persistent surface ridging just
east of our area.

Specifics for KSTL: Surface wind should pick up to around 7 kts
later this morning into the afternoon, then weaken again tonight.
Just few-sct diurnal cumulus clouds expected late this morning and
this afternoon around 6000 feet in height.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 051156
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
656 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

Expect yet another warm day today as high temperatures should climb
once again into the lower-mid 90s under mainly sunny skies.  Mixing
should be above 800mb. Mixing down 850mb temperatures around +20C
support high temperatures in the lower-mid 90s.  Heat index readings
will be close to 100 degrees given that dewpoints will be well into
the 60s if not 70 degrees at times.

Will also stick with a dry forecast as thunderstorms stayed over
eastern Illinois despite the atmosphere being unstable and uncapped
yesterday afternoon.  Conditions will be similar over the area today
with MUCAPES being in the 1000-2000 J/kg range with little CINH and
some of the CAMS showing some convective development by midday.
However, much like yesterday, there will be the mid-level ridge axis
over the region that should suppress thunderstorm development, so
will leave forecast dry for now.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

(Tonight through Monday)

Will keep forecast dry through late Sunday night as forecast
soundings are showing less instability tomorrow than today as the
ridge axis reorients itself southwest-northeast across the area.
Temperatures and humidity will be similar to today.  Chances of
showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase by late Sunday
night as the upper ridge shifts to the south and low level moisture
convergence increases over central and northeast Missouri.  Chances
will continue to increase over the area Monday and Monday night as
the upper ridge shifts farther south and the faster, upper flow and
eventually the surface cold front moves into northern Missouri and
central Illinois.  Have likely PoPs on Monday night over parts of
central and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois.

(Tuesday through Friday)

Cold front will be slow to move through the Missouri and Illinois as
a series of shortwave troughs move through the region during this
period.  First front will move through the area on Tuesday into
Wednesday followed by a secondary front that both the GFS and ECMWF
are showing that will move through late week.  Both the series of
shortwave troughs and the fronts will keep a persistent chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through next week.

Temperatures will begin to fall back to near normal behind the front
by mid to late next week...particularly with clouds and the chance
of rain.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

Fog at SUS should dissipate by 13-14Z this morning. Little
cloudiness can be expected this forecast period, except few-sct
diurnal cumulus clouds late this morning and this afternoon
around 5000-6000 feet in height. Light suface winds will become
s-sely later this morning with persistent surface ridging just
east of our area.

Specifics for KSTL: Surface wind should pick up to around 7 kts
later this morning into the afternoon, then weaken again tonight.
Just few-sct diurnal cumulus clouds expected late this morning and
this afternoon around 6000 feet in height.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 050824
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
324 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

Expect yet another warm day today as high temperatures should climb
once again into the lower-mid 90s under mainly sunny skies.  Mixing
should be above 800mb. Mixing down 850mb temperatures around +20C
support high temperatures in the lower-mid 90s.  Heat index readings
will be close to 100 degrees given that dewpoints will be well into
the 60s if not 70 degrees at times.

Will also stick with a dry forecast as thunderstorms stayed over
eastern Illinois despite the atmosphere being unstable and uncapped
yesterday afternoon.  Conditions will be similar over the area today
with MUCAPES being in the 1000-2000 J/kg range with little CINH and
some of the CAMS showing some convective development by midday.
However, much like yesterday, there will be the mid-level ridge axis
over the region that should suppress thunderstorm development, so
will leave forecast dry for now.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

(Tonight through Monday)

Will keep forecast dry through late Sunday night as forecast
soundings are showing less instability tomorrow than today as the
ridge axis reorients itself southwest-northeast across the area.
Temperatures and humidity will be similar to today.  Chances of
showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase by late Sunday
night as the upper ridge shifts to the south and low level moisture
convergence increases over central and northeast Missouri.  Chances
will continue to increase over the area Monday and Monday night as
the upper ridge shifts farther south and the faster, upper flow and
eventually the surface cold front moves into northern Missouri and
central Illinois.  Have likely PoPs on Monday night over parts of
central and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois.

(Tuesday through Friday)

Cold front will be slow to move through the Missouri and Illinois as
a series of shortwave troughs move through the region during this
period.  First front will move through the area on Tuesday into
Wednesday followed by a secondary front that both the GFS and ECMWF
are showing that will move through late week.  Both the series of
shortwave troughs and the fronts will keep a persistent chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through next week.

Temperatures will begin to fall back to near normal behind the front
by mid to late next week...particularly with clouds and the chance
of rain.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR with southerly to southwesterly winds, occasional diurnal cu,
and perhaps some passing cirrus.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 050824
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
324 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

Expect yet another warm day today as high temperatures should climb
once again into the lower-mid 90s under mainly sunny skies.  Mixing
should be above 800mb. Mixing down 850mb temperatures around +20C
support high temperatures in the lower-mid 90s.  Heat index readings
will be close to 100 degrees given that dewpoints will be well into
the 60s if not 70 degrees at times.

Will also stick with a dry forecast as thunderstorms stayed over
eastern Illinois despite the atmosphere being unstable and uncapped
yesterday afternoon.  Conditions will be similar over the area today
with MUCAPES being in the 1000-2000 J/kg range with little CINH and
some of the CAMS showing some convective development by midday.
However, much like yesterday, there will be the mid-level ridge axis
over the region that should suppress thunderstorm development, so
will leave forecast dry for now.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

(Tonight through Monday)

Will keep forecast dry through late Sunday night as forecast
soundings are showing less instability tomorrow than today as the
ridge axis reorients itself southwest-northeast across the area.
Temperatures and humidity will be similar to today.  Chances of
showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase by late Sunday
night as the upper ridge shifts to the south and low level moisture
convergence increases over central and northeast Missouri.  Chances
will continue to increase over the area Monday and Monday night as
the upper ridge shifts farther south and the faster, upper flow and
eventually the surface cold front moves into northern Missouri and
central Illinois.  Have likely PoPs on Monday night over parts of
central and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois.

(Tuesday through Friday)

Cold front will be slow to move through the Missouri and Illinois as
a series of shortwave troughs move through the region during this
period.  First front will move through the area on Tuesday into
Wednesday followed by a secondary front that both the GFS and ECMWF
are showing that will move through late week.  Both the series of
shortwave troughs and the fronts will keep a persistent chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through next week.

Temperatures will begin to fall back to near normal behind the front
by mid to late next week...particularly with clouds and the chance
of rain.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR with southerly to southwesterly winds, occasional diurnal cu,
and perhaps some passing cirrus.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 050824
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
324 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

Expect yet another warm day today as high temperatures should climb
once again into the lower-mid 90s under mainly sunny skies.  Mixing
should be above 800mb. Mixing down 850mb temperatures around +20C
support high temperatures in the lower-mid 90s.  Heat index readings
will be close to 100 degrees given that dewpoints will be well into
the 60s if not 70 degrees at times.

Will also stick with a dry forecast as thunderstorms stayed over
eastern Illinois despite the atmosphere being unstable and uncapped
yesterday afternoon.  Conditions will be similar over the area today
with MUCAPES being in the 1000-2000 J/kg range with little CINH and
some of the CAMS showing some convective development by midday.
However, much like yesterday, there will be the mid-level ridge axis
over the region that should suppress thunderstorm development, so
will leave forecast dry for now.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

(Tonight through Monday)

Will keep forecast dry through late Sunday night as forecast
soundings are showing less instability tomorrow than today as the
ridge axis reorients itself southwest-northeast across the area.
Temperatures and humidity will be similar to today.  Chances of
showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase by late Sunday
night as the upper ridge shifts to the south and low level moisture
convergence increases over central and northeast Missouri.  Chances
will continue to increase over the area Monday and Monday night as
the upper ridge shifts farther south and the faster, upper flow and
eventually the surface cold front moves into northern Missouri and
central Illinois.  Have likely PoPs on Monday night over parts of
central and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois.

(Tuesday through Friday)

Cold front will be slow to move through the Missouri and Illinois as
a series of shortwave troughs move through the region during this
period.  First front will move through the area on Tuesday into
Wednesday followed by a secondary front that both the GFS and ECMWF
are showing that will move through late week.  Both the series of
shortwave troughs and the fronts will keep a persistent chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through next week.

Temperatures will begin to fall back to near normal behind the front
by mid to late next week...particularly with clouds and the chance
of rain.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR with southerly to southwesterly winds, occasional diurnal cu,
and perhaps some passing cirrus.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 050824
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
324 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

Expect yet another warm day today as high temperatures should climb
once again into the lower-mid 90s under mainly sunny skies.  Mixing
should be above 800mb. Mixing down 850mb temperatures around +20C
support high temperatures in the lower-mid 90s.  Heat index readings
will be close to 100 degrees given that dewpoints will be well into
the 60s if not 70 degrees at times.

Will also stick with a dry forecast as thunderstorms stayed over
eastern Illinois despite the atmosphere being unstable and uncapped
yesterday afternoon.  Conditions will be similar over the area today
with MUCAPES being in the 1000-2000 J/kg range with little CINH and
some of the CAMS showing some convective development by midday.
However, much like yesterday, there will be the mid-level ridge axis
over the region that should suppress thunderstorm development, so
will leave forecast dry for now.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

(Tonight through Monday)

Will keep forecast dry through late Sunday night as forecast
soundings are showing less instability tomorrow than today as the
ridge axis reorients itself southwest-northeast across the area.
Temperatures and humidity will be similar to today.  Chances of
showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase by late Sunday
night as the upper ridge shifts to the south and low level moisture
convergence increases over central and northeast Missouri.  Chances
will continue to increase over the area Monday and Monday night as
the upper ridge shifts farther south and the faster, upper flow and
eventually the surface cold front moves into northern Missouri and
central Illinois.  Have likely PoPs on Monday night over parts of
central and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois.

(Tuesday through Friday)

Cold front will be slow to move through the Missouri and Illinois as
a series of shortwave troughs move through the region during this
period.  First front will move through the area on Tuesday into
Wednesday followed by a secondary front that both the GFS and ECMWF
are showing that will move through late week.  Both the series of
shortwave troughs and the fronts will keep a persistent chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through next week.

Temperatures will begin to fall back to near normal behind the front
by mid to late next week...particularly with clouds and the chance
of rain.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR with southerly to southwesterly winds, occasional diurnal cu,
and perhaps some passing cirrus.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 050231
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
931 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 928 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Temperatures have fallen off since sunset outside of the highly
urbanized areas, and some of the observations indicate T/Td
spreads are already only 2-3 degrees. Given this trend as we head
into the late evening it appears that patchy radiational fog is a
good bet.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Shortwave rotating around upper low parked over Great Lakes region.
This is helping to trigger isolated showers and a few thunderstorms
across the region. The best chances will be east and northeast of
our forecast area, but could see some pop up mainly over the Ozarks
and into southeast Missouri as well as STL metro area through
sunset. Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions to persist overnight
with lows only in the mid 60s to low 70s most locations.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect hot and dry pattern to persist across the region
through at least Sunday. High temperatures will be in the low to mid
90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. With dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s, could see heat indicies approach 100 at
times, both days.

Models continue to be a bit slower with the frontal boundary early
next week. GFS doesn`t have front completely move through til next
Thursday. For now went with a blend and expect front to move into
area early Monday morning and stall out north of I-70. Best chance
of showers and thunderstorms will be over central and northeast
Missouri as well as west central Illinois through Tuesday. Will
see additional rounds of activity Tuesday night through Thursday
as boundary slowly oozes south finally exiting forecast area by
Thursday. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud
cover and precipitation. For now have highs in the mid 80s to low
90s Monday and 80s on Tuesday.

Cooler air to filter in beginning Wednesday with highs only in the
70s by next Friday and overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR with southerly to southwesterly winds, occasional diurnal cu,
and perhaps some passing cirrus.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 042344
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
644 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Shortwave rotating around upper low parked over Great Lakes region.
This is helping to trigger isolated showers and a few thunderstorms
across the region. The best chances will be east and northeast of
our forecast area, but could see some pop up mainly over the Ozarks
and into southeast Missouri as well as STL metro area through
sunset. Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions to persist overnight
with lows only in the mid 60s to low 70s most locations.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect hot and dry pattern to persist across the region
through at least Sunday. High temperatures will be in the low to mid
90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. With dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s, could see heat indicies approach 100 at
times, both days.

Models continue to be a bit slower with the frontal boundary early
next week. GFS doesn`t have front completely move through til next
Thursday. For now went with a blend and expect front to move into
area early Monday morning and stall out north of I-70. Best chance
of showers and thunderstorms will be over central and northeast
Missouri as well as west central Illinois through Tuesday. Will
see additional rounds of activity Tuesday night through Thursday
as boundary slowly oozes south finally exiting forecast area by
Thursday. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud
cover and precipitation. For now have highs in the mid 80s to low
90s Monday and 80s on Tuesday.

Cooler air to filter in beginning Wednesday with highs only in the
70s by next Friday and overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR with southerly to southwesterly winds, occasional diurnal cu,
and perhaps some passing cirrus.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 042344
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
644 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Shortwave rotating around upper low parked over Great Lakes region.
This is helping to trigger isolated showers and a few thunderstorms
across the region. The best chances will be east and northeast of
our forecast area, but could see some pop up mainly over the Ozarks
and into southeast Missouri as well as STL metro area through
sunset. Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions to persist overnight
with lows only in the mid 60s to low 70s most locations.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect hot and dry pattern to persist across the region
through at least Sunday. High temperatures will be in the low to mid
90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. With dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s, could see heat indicies approach 100 at
times, both days.

Models continue to be a bit slower with the frontal boundary early
next week. GFS doesn`t have front completely move through til next
Thursday. For now went with a blend and expect front to move into
area early Monday morning and stall out north of I-70. Best chance
of showers and thunderstorms will be over central and northeast
Missouri as well as west central Illinois through Tuesday. Will
see additional rounds of activity Tuesday night through Thursday
as boundary slowly oozes south finally exiting forecast area by
Thursday. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud
cover and precipitation. For now have highs in the mid 80s to low
90s Monday and 80s on Tuesday.

Cooler air to filter in beginning Wednesday with highs only in the
70s by next Friday and overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR with southerly to southwesterly winds, occasional diurnal cu,
and perhaps some passing cirrus.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 042344
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
644 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Shortwave rotating around upper low parked over Great Lakes region.
This is helping to trigger isolated showers and a few thunderstorms
across the region. The best chances will be east and northeast of
our forecast area, but could see some pop up mainly over the Ozarks
and into southeast Missouri as well as STL metro area through
sunset. Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions to persist overnight
with lows only in the mid 60s to low 70s most locations.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect hot and dry pattern to persist across the region
through at least Sunday. High temperatures will be in the low to mid
90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. With dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s, could see heat indicies approach 100 at
times, both days.

Models continue to be a bit slower with the frontal boundary early
next week. GFS doesn`t have front completely move through til next
Thursday. For now went with a blend and expect front to move into
area early Monday morning and stall out north of I-70. Best chance
of showers and thunderstorms will be over central and northeast
Missouri as well as west central Illinois through Tuesday. Will
see additional rounds of activity Tuesday night through Thursday
as boundary slowly oozes south finally exiting forecast area by
Thursday. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud
cover and precipitation. For now have highs in the mid 80s to low
90s Monday and 80s on Tuesday.

Cooler air to filter in beginning Wednesday with highs only in the
70s by next Friday and overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR with southerly to southwesterly winds, occasional diurnal cu,
and perhaps some passing cirrus.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 042344
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
644 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Shortwave rotating around upper low parked over Great Lakes region.
This is helping to trigger isolated showers and a few thunderstorms
across the region. The best chances will be east and northeast of
our forecast area, but could see some pop up mainly over the Ozarks
and into southeast Missouri as well as STL metro area through
sunset. Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions to persist overnight
with lows only in the mid 60s to low 70s most locations.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect hot and dry pattern to persist across the region
through at least Sunday. High temperatures will be in the low to mid
90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. With dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s, could see heat indicies approach 100 at
times, both days.

Models continue to be a bit slower with the frontal boundary early
next week. GFS doesn`t have front completely move through til next
Thursday. For now went with a blend and expect front to move into
area early Monday morning and stall out north of I-70. Best chance
of showers and thunderstorms will be over central and northeast
Missouri as well as west central Illinois through Tuesday. Will
see additional rounds of activity Tuesday night through Thursday
as boundary slowly oozes south finally exiting forecast area by
Thursday. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud
cover and precipitation. For now have highs in the mid 80s to low
90s Monday and 80s on Tuesday.

Cooler air to filter in beginning Wednesday with highs only in the
70s by next Friday and overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR with southerly to southwesterly winds, occasional diurnal cu,
and perhaps some passing cirrus.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 041948
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
248 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Shortwave rotating around upper low parked over Great Lakes region.
This is helping to trigger isolated showers and a few thunderstorms
across the region. The best chances will be east and northeast of
our forecast area, but could see some pop up mainly over the Ozarks
and into southeast Missouri as well as STL metro area through
sunset. Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions to persist overnight
with lows only in the mid 60s to low 70s most locations.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect hot and dry pattern to persist across the region
through at least Sunday. High temperatures will be in the low to mid
90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. With dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s, could see heat indicies approach 100 at
times, both days.

Models continue to be a bit slower with the frontal boundary early
next week. GFS doesn`t have front completely move through til next
Thursday. For now went with a blend and expect front to move into
area early Monday morning and stall out north of I-70. Best chance
of showers and thunderstorms will be over central and northeast
Missouri as well as west central Illinois through Tuesday. Will
see additional rounds of activity Tuesday night through Thursday
as boundary slowly oozes south finally exiting forecast area by
Thursday. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud
cover and precipitation. For now have highs in the mid 80s to low
90s Monday and 80s on Tuesday.

Cooler air to filter in beginning Wednesday with highs only in the
70s by next Friday and overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR with sly to swly winds aob 8 kts.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 041709
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1209 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR with sly to swly winds aob 8 kts.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 041709
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1209 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR with sly to swly winds aob 8 kts.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 041709
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1209 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR with sly to swly winds aob 8 kts.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 041709
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1209 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR with sly to swly winds aob 8 kts.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 041220
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail
through Saturday morning. Expect river valley fog to dissipate
over the next hour or so with no visibility restrictions expected
after 13-14Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue with light
southerly flow.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 041220
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail
through Saturday morning. Expect river valley fog to dissipate
over the next hour or so with no visibility restrictions expected
after 13-14Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue with light
southerly flow.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 041220
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail
through Saturday morning. Expect river valley fog to dissipate
over the next hour or so with no visibility restrictions expected
after 13-14Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue with light
southerly flow.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 041220
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail
through Saturday morning. Expect river valley fog to dissipate
over the next hour or so with no visibility restrictions expected
after 13-14Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue with light
southerly flow.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 040829
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will control
the weather into the weekend. Dry, VFR with light a southerly
wind. SUS has the best potential for fog with persistence the best
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Continued dry, VFR with a light southerly
wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 040829
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will control
the weather into the weekend. Dry, VFR with light a southerly
wind. SUS has the best potential for fog with persistence the best
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Continued dry, VFR with a light southerly
wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 040829
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will control
the weather into the weekend. Dry, VFR with light a southerly
wind. SUS has the best potential for fog with persistence the best
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Continued dry, VFR with a light southerly
wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 040829
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will control
the weather into the weekend. Dry, VFR with light a southerly
wind. SUS has the best potential for fog with persistence the best
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Continued dry, VFR with a light southerly
wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 040422
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1122 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE is dominating the central and eastern CONUS
this afternoon with no discernible upper level disturbances
within this flow nearby our region. Once again, a field of cumulus
clouds has formed in nearly the same area as yesterday: generally
over areas south of I-70 in MO, and southeast of I-55 in IL. Temps
have risen into the 90 to 95 degree range.

May see a very brief and limited TSRA threat late this afternoon
within the current cumulus field with what should be (again) a dry
overnight.

Otherwise, persistence temps for overnight mins will be hard to beat
with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the eastern Ozarks to the
mid 70s in the urban heat island of STL City, with near 70 most
everywhere else.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Hot and dry weather pattern to continue across the region through
Sunday. Will see above normal temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Some of the models are a bit slower with frontal boundary early next
week. It begins to move into forecast area then stalls out and
pushes back north. So best chances for rain will be over central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL Sunday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud cover
and precipitation. So could still see above normal temps each day.

Then on Wednesday, decent upper level shortwave slides southeast
into the Great Lakes region, which will help to finally push the
cold front through the forecast area. Timing is still a bit hard to
pin down, but most models have it south of forecast area by
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist as
front moves through, tapering off by Thursday, though could still
see some post frontal activity, so kept slight chance pops on
Thursday. By next Thursday, highs will only be in the upper 70s
to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will control
the weather into the weekend. Dry, VFR with light a southerly
wind. SUS has the best potential for fog with persistence the best
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Continued dry, VFR with a light southerly
wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 040422
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1122 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE is dominating the central and eastern CONUS
this afternoon with no discernible upper level disturbances
within this flow nearby our region. Once again, a field of cumulus
clouds has formed in nearly the same area as yesterday: generally
over areas south of I-70 in MO, and southeast of I-55 in IL. Temps
have risen into the 90 to 95 degree range.

May see a very brief and limited TSRA threat late this afternoon
within the current cumulus field with what should be (again) a dry
overnight.

Otherwise, persistence temps for overnight mins will be hard to beat
with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the eastern Ozarks to the
mid 70s in the urban heat island of STL City, with near 70 most
everywhere else.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Hot and dry weather pattern to continue across the region through
Sunday. Will see above normal temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Some of the models are a bit slower with frontal boundary early next
week. It begins to move into forecast area then stalls out and
pushes back north. So best chances for rain will be over central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL Sunday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud cover
and precipitation. So could still see above normal temps each day.

Then on Wednesday, decent upper level shortwave slides southeast
into the Great Lakes region, which will help to finally push the
cold front through the forecast area. Timing is still a bit hard to
pin down, but most models have it south of forecast area by
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist as
front moves through, tapering off by Thursday, though could still
see some post frontal activity, so kept slight chance pops on
Thursday. By next Thursday, highs will only be in the upper 70s
to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will control
the weather into the weekend. Dry, VFR with light a southerly
wind. SUS has the best potential for fog with persistence the best
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Continued dry, VFR with a light southerly
wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 040422
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1122 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE is dominating the central and eastern CONUS
this afternoon with no discernible upper level disturbances
within this flow nearby our region. Once again, a field of cumulus
clouds has formed in nearly the same area as yesterday: generally
over areas south of I-70 in MO, and southeast of I-55 in IL. Temps
have risen into the 90 to 95 degree range.

May see a very brief and limited TSRA threat late this afternoon
within the current cumulus field with what should be (again) a dry
overnight.

Otherwise, persistence temps for overnight mins will be hard to beat
with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the eastern Ozarks to the
mid 70s in the urban heat island of STL City, with near 70 most
everywhere else.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Hot and dry weather pattern to continue across the region through
Sunday. Will see above normal temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Some of the models are a bit slower with frontal boundary early next
week. It begins to move into forecast area then stalls out and
pushes back north. So best chances for rain will be over central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL Sunday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud cover
and precipitation. So could still see above normal temps each day.

Then on Wednesday, decent upper level shortwave slides southeast
into the Great Lakes region, which will help to finally push the
cold front through the forecast area. Timing is still a bit hard to
pin down, but most models have it south of forecast area by
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist as
front moves through, tapering off by Thursday, though could still
see some post frontal activity, so kept slight chance pops on
Thursday. By next Thursday, highs will only be in the upper 70s
to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will control
the weather into the weekend. Dry, VFR with light a southerly
wind. SUS has the best potential for fog with persistence the best
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Continued dry, VFR with a light southerly
wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 032235
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
535 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE is dominating the central and eastern CONUS
this afternoon with no discernible upper level disturbances
within this flow nearby our region. Once again, a field of cumulus
clouds has formed in nearly the same area as yesterday: generally
over areas south of I-70 in MO, and southeast of I-55 in IL. Temps
have risen into the 90 to 95 degree range.

May see a very brief and limited TSRA threat late this afternoon
within the current cumulus field with what should be (again) a dry
overnight.

Otherwise, persistence temps for overnight mins will be hard to beat
with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the eastern Ozarks to the
mid 70s in the urban heat island of STL City, with near 70 most
everywhere else.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Hot and dry weather pattern to continue across the region through
Sunday. Will see above normal temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Some of the models are a bit slower with frontal boundary early next
week. It begins to move into forecast area then stalls out and
pushes back north. So best chances for rain will be over central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL Sunday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud cover
and precipitation. So could still see above normal temps each day.

Then on Wednesday, decent upper level shortwave slides southeast
into the Great Lakes region, which will help to finally push the
cold front through the forecast area. Timing is still a bit hard to
pin down, but most models have it south of forecast area by
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist as
front moves through, tapering off by Thursday, though could still
see some post frontal activity, so kept slight chance pops on
Thursday. By next Thursday, highs will only be in the upper 70s
to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

At the surface, high pressure centered over the wester Ohio Valley
will maintain control of the weather. Dry, VFR weather with a
southerly wind. Will put some fog in for SUS, primarly since they
had it last night: persistence wins.

Specifics for KSTL: little change to the forecast. Dry, southerly
wind, VFR. Some cumulus for the afternoon.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 032235
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
535 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE is dominating the central and eastern CONUS
this afternoon with no discernible upper level disturbances
within this flow nearby our region. Once again, a field of cumulus
clouds has formed in nearly the same area as yesterday: generally
over areas south of I-70 in MO, and southeast of I-55 in IL. Temps
have risen into the 90 to 95 degree range.

May see a very brief and limited TSRA threat late this afternoon
within the current cumulus field with what should be (again) a dry
overnight.

Otherwise, persistence temps for overnight mins will be hard to beat
with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the eastern Ozarks to the
mid 70s in the urban heat island of STL City, with near 70 most
everywhere else.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Hot and dry weather pattern to continue across the region through
Sunday. Will see above normal temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Some of the models are a bit slower with frontal boundary early next
week. It begins to move into forecast area then stalls out and
pushes back north. So best chances for rain will be over central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL Sunday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud cover
and precipitation. So could still see above normal temps each day.

Then on Wednesday, decent upper level shortwave slides southeast
into the Great Lakes region, which will help to finally push the
cold front through the forecast area. Timing is still a bit hard to
pin down, but most models have it south of forecast area by
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist as
front moves through, tapering off by Thursday, though could still
see some post frontal activity, so kept slight chance pops on
Thursday. By next Thursday, highs will only be in the upper 70s
to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

At the surface, high pressure centered over the wester Ohio Valley
will maintain control of the weather. Dry, VFR weather with a
southerly wind. Will put some fog in for SUS, primarly since they
had it last night: persistence wins.

Specifics for KSTL: little change to the forecast. Dry, southerly
wind, VFR. Some cumulus for the afternoon.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 032019
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
319 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE is dominating the central and eastern CONUS
this afternoon with no discernible upper level disturbances
within this flow nearby our region. Once again, a field of cumulus
clouds has formed in nearly the same area as yesterday: generally
over areas south of I-70 in MO, and southeast of I-55 in IL. Temps
have risen into the 90 to 95 degree range.

May see a very brief and limited TSRA threat late this afternoon
within the current cumulus field with what should be (again) a dry
overnight.

Otherwise, persistence temps for overnight mins will be hard to beat
with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the eastern Ozarks to the
mid 70s in the urban heat island of STL City, with near 70 most
everywhere else.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Hot and dry weather pattern to continue across the region through
Sunday. Will see above normal temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Some of the models are a bit slower with frontal boundary early next
week. It begins to move into forecast area then stalls out and
pushes back north. So best chances for rain will be over central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL Sunday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud cover
and precipitation. So could still see above normal temps each day.

Then on Wednesday, decent upper level shortwave slides southeast
into the Great Lakes region, which will help to finally push the
cold front through the forecast area. Timing is still a bit hard to
pin down, but most models have it south of forecast area by
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist as
front moves through, tapering off by Thursday, though could still
see some post frontal activity, so kept slight chance pops on
Thursday. By next Thursday, highs will only be in the upper 70s
to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

VFR conditions, dry wx, and S-SW surface winds will prevail at the
TAF sites thru the valid period. Once again, we could see isolated
SHRA/TSRA for a brief period this afternoon but probs are much too
low for any TAF mention. Also looking at persistence being favored
for any VSBY reductions at some sites for late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR, dry, with S-SW surface winds.

TES
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 032019
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
319 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE is dominating the central and eastern CONUS
this afternoon with no discernible upper level disturbances
within this flow nearby our region. Once again, a field of cumulus
clouds has formed in nearly the same area as yesterday: generally
over areas south of I-70 in MO, and southeast of I-55 in IL. Temps
have risen into the 90 to 95 degree range.

May see a very brief and limited TSRA threat late this afternoon
within the current cumulus field with what should be (again) a dry
overnight.

Otherwise, persistence temps for overnight mins will be hard to beat
with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the eastern Ozarks to the
mid 70s in the urban heat island of STL City, with near 70 most
everywhere else.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Hot and dry weather pattern to continue across the region through
Sunday. Will see above normal temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Some of the models are a bit slower with frontal boundary early next
week. It begins to move into forecast area then stalls out and
pushes back north. So best chances for rain will be over central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL Sunday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud cover
and precipitation. So could still see above normal temps each day.

Then on Wednesday, decent upper level shortwave slides southeast
into the Great Lakes region, which will help to finally push the
cold front through the forecast area. Timing is still a bit hard to
pin down, but most models have it south of forecast area by
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist as
front moves through, tapering off by Thursday, though could still
see some post frontal activity, so kept slight chance pops on
Thursday. By next Thursday, highs will only be in the upper 70s
to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

VFR conditions, dry wx, and S-SW surface winds will prevail at the
TAF sites thru the valid period. Once again, we could see isolated
SHRA/TSRA for a brief period this afternoon but probs are much too
low for any TAF mention. Also looking at persistence being favored
for any VSBY reductions at some sites for late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR, dry, with S-SW surface winds.

TES
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 031717
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1217 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks to it for this
afternoon. As with previous days, there remains a very low chance
for an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm but probabilities
remain low enough to preclude mention.

Otherwise, plenty of sunshine with max temps in the lower 90s,
with mid 90s in the STL metro area, closely following persistence.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

VFR conditions, dry wx, and S-SW surface winds will prevail at the
TAF sites thru the valid period. Once again, we could see isolated
SHRA/TSRA for a brief period this afternoon but probs are much too
low for any TAF mention. Also looking at persistence being favored
for any VSBY reductions at some sites for late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR, dry, with S-SW surface winds.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 031717
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1217 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks to it for this
afternoon. As with previous days, there remains a very low chance
for an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm but probabilities
remain low enough to preclude mention.

Otherwise, plenty of sunshine with max temps in the lower 90s,
with mid 90s in the STL metro area, closely following persistence.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

VFR conditions, dry wx, and S-SW surface winds will prevail at the
TAF sites thru the valid period. Once again, we could see isolated
SHRA/TSRA for a brief period this afternoon but probs are much too
low for any TAF mention. Also looking at persistence being favored
for any VSBY reductions at some sites for late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR, dry, with S-SW surface winds.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 031717
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1217 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks to it for this
afternoon. As with previous days, there remains a very low chance
for an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm but probabilities
remain low enough to preclude mention.

Otherwise, plenty of sunshine with max temps in the lower 90s,
with mid 90s in the STL metro area, closely following persistence.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

VFR conditions, dry wx, and S-SW surface winds will prevail at the
TAF sites thru the valid period. Once again, we could see isolated
SHRA/TSRA for a brief period this afternoon but probs are much too
low for any TAF mention. Also looking at persistence being favored
for any VSBY reductions at some sites for late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR, dry, with S-SW surface winds.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 031717
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1217 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks to it for this
afternoon. As with previous days, there remains a very low chance
for an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm but probabilities
remain low enough to preclude mention.

Otherwise, plenty of sunshine with max temps in the lower 90s,
with mid 90s in the STL metro area, closely following persistence.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

VFR conditions, dry wx, and S-SW surface winds will prevail at the
TAF sites thru the valid period. Once again, we could see isolated
SHRA/TSRA for a brief period this afternoon but probs are much too
low for any TAF mention. Also looking at persistence being favored
for any VSBY reductions at some sites for late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR, dry, with S-SW surface winds.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 031657
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1157 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks to it for this
afternoon. As with previous days, there remains a very low chance
for an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm but probabilities
remain low enough to preclude mention.

Otherwise, plenty of sunshine with max temps in the lower 90s,
with mid 90s in the STL metro area, closely following persistence.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Mid cloud deck (with bases aoa 10kft) and a few sprinkles are drifting
southeast across the region this morning. Radar indicates some of
this rain may effect KCOU next hour or so, but since precip is so
light no vsby restriction is expected. Otherwise, weather trends
today should be similar to those of yesterday, with high based
morning clouds giving way to scattered CU around midday, with this
diurnally driven cloudiness dissipating as we head into the early
evening hours. Did include some late night fog in the tafs for the
low lying locations of KSUS and KCPS.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions are expected throughout the
period, with clouds aoa 5kft and south-southwest winds aob 10kts.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 031657
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1157 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks to it for this
afternoon. As with previous days, there remains a very low chance
for an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm but probabilities
remain low enough to preclude mention.

Otherwise, plenty of sunshine with max temps in the lower 90s,
with mid 90s in the STL metro area, closely following persistence.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Mid cloud deck (with bases aoa 10kft) and a few sprinkles are drifting
southeast across the region this morning. Radar indicates some of
this rain may effect KCOU next hour or so, but since precip is so
light no vsby restriction is expected. Otherwise, weather trends
today should be similar to those of yesterday, with high based
morning clouds giving way to scattered CU around midday, with this
diurnally driven cloudiness dissipating as we head into the early
evening hours. Did include some late night fog in the tafs for the
low lying locations of KSUS and KCPS.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions are expected throughout the
period, with clouds aoa 5kft and south-southwest winds aob 10kts.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 031657
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1157 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks to it for this
afternoon. As with previous days, there remains a very low chance
for an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm but probabilities
remain low enough to preclude mention.

Otherwise, plenty of sunshine with max temps in the lower 90s,
with mid 90s in the STL metro area, closely following persistence.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Mid cloud deck (with bases aoa 10kft) and a few sprinkles are drifting
southeast across the region this morning. Radar indicates some of
this rain may effect KCOU next hour or so, but since precip is so
light no vsby restriction is expected. Otherwise, weather trends
today should be similar to those of yesterday, with high based
morning clouds giving way to scattered CU around midday, with this
diurnally driven cloudiness dissipating as we head into the early
evening hours. Did include some late night fog in the tafs for the
low lying locations of KSUS and KCPS.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions are expected throughout the
period, with clouds aoa 5kft and south-southwest winds aob 10kts.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 031145
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
645 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Mid cloud deck (with bases aoa 10kft) and a few sprinkles are drifting
southeast across the region this morning. Radar indicates some of
this rain may effect KCOU next hour or so, but since precip is so
light no vsby restriction is expected. Otherwise, weather trends
today should be similar to those of yesterday, with high based
morning clouds giving way to scattered CU around midday, with this
diurnally driven cloudiness dissipating as we head into the early
evening hours. Did include some late night fog in the tafs for the
low lying locations of KSUS and KCPS.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions are expected throughout the
period, with clouds aoa 5kft and south-southwest winds aob 10kts.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 031145
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
645 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Mid cloud deck (with bases aoa 10kft) and a few sprinkles are drifting
southeast across the region this morning. Radar indicates some of
this rain may effect KCOU next hour or so, but since precip is so
light no vsby restriction is expected. Otherwise, weather trends
today should be similar to those of yesterday, with high based
morning clouds giving way to scattered CU around midday, with this
diurnally driven cloudiness dissipating as we head into the early
evening hours. Did include some late night fog in the tafs for the
low lying locations of KSUS and KCPS.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions are expected throughout the
period, with clouds aoa 5kft and south-southwest winds aob 10kts.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 031145
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
645 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Mid cloud deck (with bases aoa 10kft) and a few sprinkles are drifting
southeast across the region this morning. Radar indicates some of
this rain may effect KCOU next hour or so, but since precip is so
light no vsby restriction is expected. Otherwise, weather trends
today should be similar to those of yesterday, with high based
morning clouds giving way to scattered CU around midday, with this
diurnally driven cloudiness dissipating as we head into the early
evening hours. Did include some late night fog in the tafs for the
low lying locations of KSUS and KCPS.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions are expected throughout the
period, with clouds aoa 5kft and south-southwest winds aob 10kts.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 031145
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
645 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Mid cloud deck (with bases aoa 10kft) and a few sprinkles are drifting
southeast across the region this morning. Radar indicates some of
this rain may effect KCOU next hour or so, but since precip is so
light no vsby restriction is expected. Otherwise, weather trends
today should be similar to those of yesterday, with high based
morning clouds giving way to scattered CU around midday, with this
diurnally driven cloudiness dissipating as we head into the early
evening hours. Did include some late night fog in the tafs for the
low lying locations of KSUS and KCPS.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions are expected throughout the
period, with clouds aoa 5kft and south-southwest winds aob 10kts.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 030846
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

A few high-based spotty showers have developed across north
central MO this evening and are persisting as they drift
southeast. Present indications are they will avoid KUIN and will
hopefully dissipate before moving as far southeast as KCOU. Still
anticipating the potential for a short period of fog/br between
09-13z at all terminals except KSTL, with the possibility of
reducing the visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions
to persist through Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu from
midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 030846
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

A few high-based spotty showers have developed across north
central MO this evening and are persisting as they drift
southeast. Present indications are they will avoid KUIN and will
hopefully dissipate before moving as far southeast as KCOU. Still
anticipating the potential for a short period of fog/br between
09-13z at all terminals except KSTL, with the possibility of
reducing the visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions
to persist through Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu from
midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 030814
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
314 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

A few high-based spotty showers have developed across north
central MO this evening and are persisting as they drift
southeast. Present indications are they will avoid KUIN and will
hopefully dissipate before moving as far southeast as KCOU. Still
anticipating the potential for a short period of fog/br between
09-13z at all terminals except KSTL, with the possibility of
reducing the visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions
to persist through Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu from
midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 030814
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
314 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

A few high-based spotty showers have developed across north
central MO this evening and are persisting as they drift
southeast. Present indications are they will avoid KUIN and will
hopefully dissipate before moving as far southeast as KCOU. Still
anticipating the potential for a short period of fog/br between
09-13z at all terminals except KSTL, with the possibility of
reducing the visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions
to persist through Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu from
midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 030447
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1147 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 858 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL MO
AND SOUTH CENTRAL IA THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARED TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ON NOSE OF A 20-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE
PREVIOUS MODELS DID NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PRECIPITATION.
EVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ON THE WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE LOCATED JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE PAST NIGHT...AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

A few high-based spotty showers have developed across north
central MO this evening and are persisting as they drift
southeast. Present indications are they will avoid KUIN and will
hopefully dissipate before moving as far southeast as KCOU. Still
anticipating the potential for a short period of fog/br between
09-13z at all terminals except KSTL, with the possibility of
reducing the visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions
to persist through Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu from
midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 030447
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1147 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 858 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL MO
AND SOUTH CENTRAL IA THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARED TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ON NOSE OF A 20-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE
PREVIOUS MODELS DID NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PRECIPITATION.
EVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ON THE WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE LOCATED JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE PAST NIGHT...AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

A few high-based spotty showers have developed across north
central MO this evening and are persisting as they drift
southeast. Present indications are they will avoid KUIN and will
hopefully dissipate before moving as far southeast as KCOU. Still
anticipating the potential for a short period of fog/br between
09-13z at all terminals except KSTL, with the possibility of
reducing the visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions
to persist through Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu from
midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 030214
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
914 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 858 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL MO
AND SOUTH CENTRAL IA THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARED TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ON NOSE OF A 20-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE
PREVIOUS MODELS DID NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PRECIPITATION.
EVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ON THE WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE LOCATED JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE PAST NIGHT...AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected this evening and much of the
overnight period. Between 10-13z all terminals except KSTL have
the possibility of a short period of fog/br reducing the
visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions will persist
on Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will previal throughout the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 030214
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
914 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 858 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL MO
AND SOUTH CENTRAL IA THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARED TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ON NOSE OF A 20-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE
PREVIOUS MODELS DID NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PRECIPITATION.
EVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ON THE WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE LOCATED JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE PAST NIGHT...AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected this evening and much of the
overnight period. Between 10-13z all terminals except KSTL have
the possibility of a short period of fog/br reducing the
visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions will persist
on Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will previal throughout the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 022336
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
636 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected this evening and much of the
overnight period. Between 10-13z all terminals except KSTL have
the possibility of a short period of fog/br reducing the
visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions will persist
on Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will previal throughout the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 022336
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
636 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected this evening and much of the
overnight period. Between 10-13z all terminals except KSTL have
the possibility of a short period of fog/br reducing the
visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions will persist
on Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will previal throughout the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 022336
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
636 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected this evening and much of the
overnight period. Between 10-13z all terminals except KSTL have
the possibility of a short period of fog/br reducing the
visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions will persist
on Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will previal throughout the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 022336
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
636 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected this evening and much of the
overnight period. Between 10-13z all terminals except KSTL have
the possibility of a short period of fog/br reducing the
visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions will persist
on Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will previal throughout the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 021912
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
212 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS, S-SW SURFACE WINDS, AND DRY WX ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD. LEFT THE
MVFR VSBYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN PLACE AT ALL SITES BUT KSTL
FOR THIS PACKAGE TO BE RE-EVALUATED FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE WHEN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA COMES IN FOR SUCH PARAMETERS AS CROSSOVER TEMPS
AND A BETTER HANDLE ON CLOUD COVER IS ATTAINED.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 021912
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
212 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS, S-SW SURFACE WINDS, AND DRY WX ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD. LEFT THE
MVFR VSBYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN PLACE AT ALL SITES BUT KSTL
FOR THIS PACKAGE TO BE RE-EVALUATED FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE WHEN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA COMES IN FOR SUCH PARAMETERS AS CROSSOVER TEMPS
AND A BETTER HANDLE ON CLOUD COVER IS ATTAINED.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 021750
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SAME BASIC WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LARGE
SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS.  A SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT STILL STRETCHES FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS
RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA AND IS PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI.  CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THESE STORMS WON`T MAKE IT INTO OUR CWFA THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER WARM HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER.  SIGNALS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE WEAKER IN THE
GUIDANCE THAN THEY WERE FOR YESTERDAY, SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING
THIS MORNING.  THAT BEING SAID, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED AT ALL IF
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRIES TO BEGIN SHIFTING THE PATTERN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BY BRINGING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WEST
COAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
BRINGING US A CHANCE OF RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS, S-SW SURFACE WINDS, AND DRY WX ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD. LEFT THE
MVFR VSBYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN PLACE AT ALL SITES BUT KSTL
FOR THIS PACKAGE TO BE RE-EVALUATED FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE WHEN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA COMES IN FOR SUCH PARAMETERS AS CROSSOVER TEMPS
AND A BETTER HANDLE ON CLOUD COVER IS ATTAINED.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 021750
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SAME BASIC WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LARGE
SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS.  A SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT STILL STRETCHES FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS
RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA AND IS PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI.  CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THESE STORMS WON`T MAKE IT INTO OUR CWFA THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER WARM HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER.  SIGNALS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE WEAKER IN THE
GUIDANCE THAN THEY WERE FOR YESTERDAY, SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING
THIS MORNING.  THAT BEING SAID, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED AT ALL IF
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRIES TO BEGIN SHIFTING THE PATTERN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BY BRINGING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WEST
COAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
BRINGING US A CHANCE OF RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS, S-SW SURFACE WINDS, AND DRY WX ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD. LEFT THE
MVFR VSBYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN PLACE AT ALL SITES BUT KSTL
FOR THIS PACKAGE TO BE RE-EVALUATED FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE WHEN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA COMES IN FOR SUCH PARAMETERS AS CROSSOVER TEMPS
AND A BETTER HANDLE ON CLOUD COVER IS ATTAINED.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 021750
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SAME BASIC WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LARGE
SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS.  A SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT STILL STRETCHES FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS
RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA AND IS PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI.  CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THESE STORMS WON`T MAKE IT INTO OUR CWFA THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER WARM HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER.  SIGNALS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE WEAKER IN THE
GUIDANCE THAN THEY WERE FOR YESTERDAY, SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING
THIS MORNING.  THAT BEING SAID, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED AT ALL IF
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRIES TO BEGIN SHIFTING THE PATTERN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BY BRINGING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WEST
COAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
BRINGING US A CHANCE OF RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS, S-SW SURFACE WINDS, AND DRY WX ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD. LEFT THE
MVFR VSBYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN PLACE AT ALL SITES BUT KSTL
FOR THIS PACKAGE TO BE RE-EVALUATED FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE WHEN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA COMES IN FOR SUCH PARAMETERS AS CROSSOVER TEMPS
AND A BETTER HANDLE ON CLOUD COVER IS ATTAINED.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities