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000
FXUS63 KLSX 202316
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
616 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Frontal boundary has exited the forecast area with surface ridge
building in. So expect clear skies and light winds tonight.
Temperatures will drop off into the low to mid 40s with upper 40s to
low 50s in the St. Louis metro area.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

Still looks like Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry as GFS/NAM/ECMWF
are in good agreement that upper ridge will move into Missouri and
Illinois from the west.  Have added a chance of showers over
northeast and central Missouri as well as west central Illinois on
Thursday as another shortwave will be moving quickly eastward into
the area.

Continued to use a blend of MOS guidance the next few days which
fits in well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Friday through next Monday)

ECMWF and GFS are in better agreement today that upper ridge will
begin building into area on Friday and that it will remain over
the area through next weekend bringing continued dry weather.
Winds will turn out of the south and 850mb temperatures will climb
above 10C which support temperature above normal temperature for
Saturday and Sunday. Both models are showing an upper trough
moving into the Plains with and attendant cold front entering
Missouri and Illinois by next Monday, so will keep the current chance
of showers going.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

VFR and dry thru the TAF period. Light and vrb winds tonight will
become nly to nely Tues morning.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 202316
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
616 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Frontal boundary has exited the forecast area with surface ridge
building in. So expect clear skies and light winds tonight.
Temperatures will drop off into the low to mid 40s with upper 40s to
low 50s in the St. Louis metro area.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

Still looks like Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry as GFS/NAM/ECMWF
are in good agreement that upper ridge will move into Missouri and
Illinois from the west.  Have added a chance of showers over
northeast and central Missouri as well as west central Illinois on
Thursday as another shortwave will be moving quickly eastward into
the area.

Continued to use a blend of MOS guidance the next few days which
fits in well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Friday through next Monday)

ECMWF and GFS are in better agreement today that upper ridge will
begin building into area on Friday and that it will remain over
the area through next weekend bringing continued dry weather.
Winds will turn out of the south and 850mb temperatures will climb
above 10C which support temperature above normal temperature for
Saturday and Sunday. Both models are showing an upper trough
moving into the Plains with and attendant cold front entering
Missouri and Illinois by next Monday, so will keep the current chance
of showers going.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

VFR and dry thru the TAF period. Light and vrb winds tonight will
become nly to nely Tues morning.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 202022
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
322 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Frontal boundary has exited the forecast area with surface ridge
building in. So expect clear skies and light winds tonight.
Temperatures will drop off into the low to mid 40s with upper 40s to
low 50s in the St. Louis metro area.

Byrd


.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

Still looks like Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry as GFS/NAM/ECMWF
are in good agreement that upper ridge will move into Missouri and
Illinois from the west.  Have added a chance of showers over
northeast and central Missouri as well as west central Illinois on
Thursday as another shortwave will be moving quickly eastward into
the area.

Continued to use a blend of MOS guidance the next few days which
fits in well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Friday through next Monday)

ECMWF and GFS are in better agreement today that upper ridge will
begin building into area on Friday and that it will remain over
the area through next weekend bringing continued dry weather.
Winds will turn out of the south and 850mb temperatures will climb
above 10C which support temperature above normal temperature for
Saturday and Sunday. Both models are showing an upper trough
moving into the Plains with and attendant cold front entering
Missouri and Illinois by next Monday, so will keep the current chance
of showers going.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Cold front has exited forecast area with surface ridge building
in. Skies to remain clear through the forecast period with
northwest winds becoming light and variable towards sunset. Then
by mid morning on Tuesday, winds to pickup from the north.

Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front has exited forecast area with surface ridge building
in. Skies to remain clear through the forecast period with
northwest winds becoming light and variable by 00z Tuesday. Then
by 15z Tuesday, winds to pickup from the north.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 201731
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1231 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Scattered sprinkles and light rain showers developed across the
southern half of the LSX CWA overnight. Pcpn will gradually
diminish today due to increasingly drier air behind a low pressure
system which will continue moving from the Great Lakes into the
northeastern US.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expect dry weather and seasonably mild temperatures to last
through at least the middle of the week due to the influence of a
highly amplified upper ridge across the central CONUS as well as a
surface ridge axis extending southwestward from Ontario through
the Great Lakes and into MO/IL. A low pressure system will cross
the Rockies and move into the plains towards the end of the week,
and some of the precipitation associated with this system might
clip the western CWA on Thursday. Most of the model runs over the
last few days were depicting a low pressure system which moved
southeastward from the Rockies into the southern plains and then
continued towards the Gulf of Mexico, but the 23/00z runs now
depict a very different solution with a shortwave moving through
the northern plains.

Kanofsky
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Cold front has exited forecast area with surface ridge building
in. Skies to remain clear through the forecast period with
northwest winds becoming light and variable towards sunset. Then
by mid morning on Tuesday, winds to pickup from the north.

Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front has exited forecast area with surface ridge building
in. Skies to remain clear through the forecast period with
northwest winds becoming light and variable by 00z Tuesday. Then
by 15z Tuesday, winds to pickup from the north.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 201731
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1231 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Scattered sprinkles and light rain showers developed across the
southern half of the LSX CWA overnight. Pcpn will gradually
diminish today due to increasingly drier air behind a low pressure
system which will continue moving from the Great Lakes into the
northeastern US.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expect dry weather and seasonably mild temperatures to last
through at least the middle of the week due to the influence of a
highly amplified upper ridge across the central CONUS as well as a
surface ridge axis extending southwestward from Ontario through
the Great Lakes and into MO/IL. A low pressure system will cross
the Rockies and move into the plains towards the end of the week,
and some of the precipitation associated with this system might
clip the western CWA on Thursday. Most of the model runs over the
last few days were depicting a low pressure system which moved
southeastward from the Rockies into the southern plains and then
continued towards the Gulf of Mexico, but the 23/00z runs now
depict a very different solution with a shortwave moving through
the northern plains.

Kanofsky
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Cold front has exited forecast area with surface ridge building
in. Skies to remain clear through the forecast period with
northwest winds becoming light and variable towards sunset. Then
by mid morning on Tuesday, winds to pickup from the north.

Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front has exited forecast area with surface ridge building
in. Skies to remain clear through the forecast period with
northwest winds becoming light and variable by 00z Tuesday. Then
by 15z Tuesday, winds to pickup from the north.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 201037
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
536 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Scattered sprinkles and light rain showers developed across the
southern half of the LSX CWA overnight. Pcpn will gradually
diminish today due to increasingly drier air behind a low pressure
system which will continue moving from the Great Lakes into the
northeastern US.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expect dry weather and seasonably mild temperatures to last
through at least the middle of the week due to the influence of a
highly amplified upper ridge across the central CONUS as well as a
surface ridge axis extending southwestward from Ontario through
the Great Lakes and into MO/IL. A low pressure system will cross
the Rockies and move into the plains towards the end of the week,
and some of the precipitation associated with this system might
clip the western CWA on Thursday. Most of the model runs over the
last few days were depicting a low pressure system which moved
southeastward from the Rockies into the southern plains and then
continued towards the Gulf of Mexico, but the 23/00z runs now
depict a very different solution with a shortwave moving through
the northern plains.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Cold front will move through the TAF sites today, but no
precipitation is expected as the front passes. Surface winds will
veer from west to northwest behind the front.

Specifics for KSTL: Southwest winds this morning will gradaully
become northwesterely this afternoon behind a cold front. The
front will move through dry, with little cloud cover expected.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 201037
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
536 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Scattered sprinkles and light rain showers developed across the
southern half of the LSX CWA overnight. Pcpn will gradually
diminish today due to increasingly drier air behind a low pressure
system which will continue moving from the Great Lakes into the
northeastern US.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expect dry weather and seasonably mild temperatures to last
through at least the middle of the week due to the influence of a
highly amplified upper ridge across the central CONUS as well as a
surface ridge axis extending southwestward from Ontario through
the Great Lakes and into MO/IL. A low pressure system will cross
the Rockies and move into the plains towards the end of the week,
and some of the precipitation associated with this system might
clip the western CWA on Thursday. Most of the model runs over the
last few days were depicting a low pressure system which moved
southeastward from the Rockies into the southern plains and then
continued towards the Gulf of Mexico, but the 23/00z runs now
depict a very different solution with a shortwave moving through
the northern plains.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Cold front will move through the TAF sites today, but no
precipitation is expected as the front passes. Surface winds will
veer from west to northwest behind the front.

Specifics for KSTL: Southwest winds this morning will gradaully
become northwesterely this afternoon behind a cold front. The
front will move through dry, with little cloud cover expected.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 200810
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
310 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Scattered sprinkles and light rain showers developed across the
southern half of the LSX CWA overnight. Pcpn will gradually
diminish today due to increasingly drier air behind a low pressure
system which will continue moving from the Great Lakes into the
northeastern US.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expect dry weather and seasonably mild temperatures to last
through at least the middle of the week due to the influence of a
highly amplified upper ridge across the central CONUS as well as a
surface ridge axis extending southwestward from Ontario through
the Great Lakes and into MO/IL. A low pressure system will cross
the Rockies and move into the plains towards the end of the week,
and some of the precipitation associated with this system might
clip the western CWA on Thursday. Most of the model runs over the
last few days were depicting a low pressure system which moved
southeastward from the Rockies into the southern plains and then
continued towards the Gulf of Mexico, but the 23/00z runs now
depict a very different solution with a shortwave moving through
the northern plains.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly by Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA before sunrise Mon are expected to remain S of
terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 200810
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
310 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Scattered sprinkles and light rain showers developed across the
southern half of the LSX CWA overnight. Pcpn will gradually
diminish today due to increasingly drier air behind a low pressure
system which will continue moving from the Great Lakes into the
northeastern US.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expect dry weather and seasonably mild temperatures to last
through at least the middle of the week due to the influence of a
highly amplified upper ridge across the central CONUS as well as a
surface ridge axis extending southwestward from Ontario through
the Great Lakes and into MO/IL. A low pressure system will cross
the Rockies and move into the plains towards the end of the week,
and some of the precipitation associated with this system might
clip the western CWA on Thursday. Most of the model runs over the
last few days were depicting a low pressure system which moved
southeastward from the Rockies into the southern plains and then
continued towards the Gulf of Mexico, but the 23/00z runs now
depict a very different solution with a shortwave moving through
the northern plains.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly by Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA before sunrise Mon are expected to remain S of
terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 200402
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1102 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 932 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Limited precipitation chances to southern zones (south of St.
Louis) as shortwave, evident on water vapor imagery is quickly
going to move through the CWA with very dry air aloft moving into
the CWA. Could still squeeze out a shower or two across the south
ahead of the shortwave, but most will remain dry overnight.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly by Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA before sunrise Mon are expected to remain S of
terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 200402
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1102 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 932 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Limited precipitation chances to southern zones (south of St.
Louis) as shortwave, evident on water vapor imagery is quickly
going to move through the CWA with very dry air aloft moving into
the CWA. Could still squeeze out a shower or two across the south
ahead of the shortwave, but most will remain dry overnight.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly by Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA before sunrise Mon are expected to remain S of
terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 200234
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
934 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 932 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Limited precipitation chances to southern zones (south of St.
Louis) as shortwave, evident on water vapor imagery is quickly
going to move through the CWA with very dry air aloft moving into
the CWA. Could still squeeze out a shower or two across the south
ahead of the shortwave, but most will remain dry overnight.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA are expected to remain S of terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 200234
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
934 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 932 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Limited precipitation chances to southern zones (south of St.
Louis) as shortwave, evident on water vapor imagery is quickly
going to move through the CWA with very dry air aloft moving into
the CWA. Could still squeeze out a shower or two across the south
ahead of the shortwave, but most will remain dry overnight.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA are expected to remain S of terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 192245
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
545 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA are expected to remain S of terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 192245
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
545 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA are expected to remain S of terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 192245
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
545 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA are expected to remain S of terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 192042
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

High pressure extending across the Ohio Valley region will
continue to move eastward into West Virginia and areas to the
east. Weak frontal boundary over North Dakota expected to move
southeast and move through eastern Missouri and southwest and
west-central Illinois between 1000-1500 UTC on Monday. Widely
scattered light showers and sprinkles are possible dueing and
after the frontal passage.

Specifics for KSTL:High level cloudiness will remain over the area
through late this afternoon. Southwest winds of 6-7 kts are likely
during the afternoon. Mid-level cloudiness will move into STL area
after 02 -0300 UTC this evening. Lower clouds around 050 Kft will
move into STL area after 1000 UTC. Widely scattered light showers
or sprinkles are possible between 1000-1500 UTC Monday morning.

RP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 191809
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
109 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 912 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Made a few slight adjustments to the temperatues over parts of
south central Illinois into the St. Louis area. Also lowerrd the
temps a bit over parts of Warren, Montgomery and Franklin counties
however, expect relative quick recovery with the full sunshine.

PRZYBYLINSKI

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The Canadian high pressure center which was located overhead early
this morning will shift southeastward today. Surface winds are
forecast to become southerly to southwesterly around the back side
of the high and ahead of an approaching cold front. The
clipper-like feature which will eventually drive this cold front
through the area was still located along the Alberta/Saskatchewan
border at 19/06z, but it is forecast to deepen and amplify as it
moves into the Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow. Models
show limited moisture being drawn into the region ahead of the
cold front, and this should be sufficient for sprinkles or light
rain showers. Even though the strongest lift will be farther to
the east, an additional source of weak lift over the southern LSX
CWA may be provided early this evening by a compact vort max
which was located near the OK panhandle this morning. This feature
looks a bit stronger on water vapor imagery than the models would
suggest, and it was already producing light radar returns across
northern OK and southern KS. Precip chances diminish quickly after
18z tomorrow due to subsidence behind the front, decreasing
moisture, and decreasing lift as the low pressure system pulls
away from the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The rest of the forecast looks dry and seasonably warm through the
middle of the week. A surface ridge axis will extend southwestward
from Ontario into MO/IL while an amplified upper ridge shifts
eastward over the area. There may be a chance of rain late in the
week (Thu/Fri) if the models are correct in developing a closed
low over the southern plains and if its influence extends far
enough eastward to affect sensible wx over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

High pressure extending across the Ohio Valley region will
continue to move eastward into West Virginia and areas to the
east. Weak frontal boundary over North Dakota expected to move
southeast and move through eastern Missouri and southwest and
west-central Illinois between 1000-1500 UTC on Monday. Widely
scattered light showers and sprinkles are possible dueing and
after the frontal passage.

Specifics for KSTL:High level cloudiness will remain over the area
through late this afternoon. Southwest winds of 6-7 kts are likely
during the afternoon. Mid-level cloudiness will move into STL area
after 02 -0300 UTC this evening. Lower clouds around 050 Kft will
move into STL area after 1000 UTC. Widely scattered light showers
or sprinkles are possible between 1000-1500 UTC Monday morning.

RP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 191809
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
109 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 912 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Made a few slight adjustments to the temperatues over parts of
south central Illinois into the St. Louis area. Also lowerrd the
temps a bit over parts of Warren, Montgomery and Franklin counties
however, expect relative quick recovery with the full sunshine.

PRZYBYLINSKI

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The Canadian high pressure center which was located overhead early
this morning will shift southeastward today. Surface winds are
forecast to become southerly to southwesterly around the back side
of the high and ahead of an approaching cold front. The
clipper-like feature which will eventually drive this cold front
through the area was still located along the Alberta/Saskatchewan
border at 19/06z, but it is forecast to deepen and amplify as it
moves into the Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow. Models
show limited moisture being drawn into the region ahead of the
cold front, and this should be sufficient for sprinkles or light
rain showers. Even though the strongest lift will be farther to
the east, an additional source of weak lift over the southern LSX
CWA may be provided early this evening by a compact vort max
which was located near the OK panhandle this morning. This feature
looks a bit stronger on water vapor imagery than the models would
suggest, and it was already producing light radar returns across
northern OK and southern KS. Precip chances diminish quickly after
18z tomorrow due to subsidence behind the front, decreasing
moisture, and decreasing lift as the low pressure system pulls
away from the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The rest of the forecast looks dry and seasonably warm through the
middle of the week. A surface ridge axis will extend southwestward
from Ontario into MO/IL while an amplified upper ridge shifts
eastward over the area. There may be a chance of rain late in the
week (Thu/Fri) if the models are correct in developing a closed
low over the southern plains and if its influence extends far
enough eastward to affect sensible wx over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

High pressure extending across the Ohio Valley region will
continue to move eastward into West Virginia and areas to the
east. Weak frontal boundary over North Dakota expected to move
southeast and move through eastern Missouri and southwest and
west-central Illinois between 1000-1500 UTC on Monday. Widely
scattered light showers and sprinkles are possible dueing and
after the frontal passage.

Specifics for KSTL:High level cloudiness will remain over the area
through late this afternoon. Southwest winds of 6-7 kts are likely
during the afternoon. Mid-level cloudiness will move into STL area
after 02 -0300 UTC this evening. Lower clouds around 050 Kft will
move into STL area after 1000 UTC. Widely scattered light showers
or sprinkles are possible between 1000-1500 UTC Monday morning.

RP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 191419
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
919 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 912 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Made a few slight adjustments to the temperatues over parts of
south central Illinois into the St. Louis area. Also lowerrd the
temps a bit over parts of Warren, Montgomery and Franklin counties
however, expect relative quick recovery with the full sunshine.

PRZYBYLINSKI

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The Canadian high pressure center which was located overhead early
this morning will shift southeastward today. Surface winds are
forecast to become southerly to southwesterly around the back side
of the high and ahead of an approaching cold front. The
clipper-like feature which will eventually drive this cold front
through the area was still located along the Alberta/Saskatchewan
border at 19/06z, but it is forecast to deepen and amplify as it
moves into the Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow. Models
show limited moisture being drawn into the region ahead of the
cold front, and this should be sufficient for sprinkles or light
rain showers. Even though the strongest lift will be farther to
the east, an additional source of weak lift over the southern LSX
CWA may be provided early this evening by a compact vort max
which was located near the OK panhandle this morning. This feature
looks a bit stronger on water vapor imagery than the models would
suggest, and it was already producing light radar returns across
northern OK and southern KS. Precip chances diminish quickly after
18z tomorrow due to subsidence behind the front, decreasing
moisture, and decreasing lift as the low pressure system pulls
away from the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The rest of the forecast looks dry and seasonably warm through the
middle of the week. A surface ridge axis will extend southwestward
from Ontario into MO/IL while an amplified upper ridge shifts
eastward over the area. There may be a chance of rain late in the
week (Thu/Fri) if the models are correct in developing a closed
low over the southern plains and if its influence extends far
enough eastward to affect sensible wx over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

High pressure over the area this morning producing light winds and
patchy fog primarily at locations in valleys or near rivers, i.e
SUS and CPS. Expect the fog to dissipate by 15z. The wind will
become southerly as the high shifts east and in advance of the
next cold front. Models have been trying to generate rain in
advance of the front for a couple of runs now. However not a lot
of moisture to work with, and pops still low so will leave the
forecast dry.

Specifics for KSTL: Fog has stayed away so expect a light south
southwest wind and VFR conditions to prevail through the day.
Looks like the next front will arrive about 15z Monday with a wind
shoft to the northwest. Lows pops so will keep the forecast dry
for now.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 191126
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
626 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The Canadian high pressure center which was located overhead early
this morning will shift southeastward today. Surface winds are
forecast to become southerly to southwesterly around the back side
of the high and ahead of an approaching cold front. The
clipper-like feature which will eventually drive this cold front
through the area was still located along the Alberta/Saskatchewan
border at 19/06z, but it is forecast to deepen and amplify as it
moves into the Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow. Models
show limited moisture being drawn into the region ahead of the
cold front, and this should be sufficient for sprinkles or light
rain showers. Even though the strongest lift will be farther to
the east, an additional source of weak lift over the southern LSX
CWA may be provided early this evening by a compact vort max
which was located near the OK panhandle this morning. This feature
looks a bit stronger on water vapor imagery than the models would
suggest, and it was already producing light radar returns across
northern OK and southern KS. Precip chances diminish quickly after
18z tomorrow due to subsidence behind the front, decreasing
moisture, and decreasing lift as the low pressure system pulls
away from the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The rest of the forecast looks dry and seasonably warm through the
middle of the week. A surface ridge axis will extend southwestward
from Ontario into MO/IL while an amplified upper ridge shifts
eastward over the area. There may be a chance of rain late in the
week (Thu/Fri) if the models are correct in developing a closed
low over the southern plains and if its influence extends far
enough eastward to affect sensible wx over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

High pressure over the area this morning producing light winds and
patchy fog primarily at locations in valleys or near rivers, i.e
SUS and CPS. Expect the fog to dissipate by 15z. The wind will
become southerly as the high shifts east and in advance of the
next cold front. Models have been trying to generate rain in
advance of the front for a couple of runs now. However not a lot
of moisture to work with, and pops still low so will leave the
forecast dry.

Specifics for KSTL: Fog has stayed away so expect a light south
southwest wind and VFR conditions to prevail through the day.
Looks like the next front will arrive about 15z Monday with a wind
shoft to the northwest. Lows pops so will keep the forecast dry
for now.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 191126
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
626 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The Canadian high pressure center which was located overhead early
this morning will shift southeastward today. Surface winds are
forecast to become southerly to southwesterly around the back side
of the high and ahead of an approaching cold front. The
clipper-like feature which will eventually drive this cold front
through the area was still located along the Alberta/Saskatchewan
border at 19/06z, but it is forecast to deepen and amplify as it
moves into the Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow. Models
show limited moisture being drawn into the region ahead of the
cold front, and this should be sufficient for sprinkles or light
rain showers. Even though the strongest lift will be farther to
the east, an additional source of weak lift over the southern LSX
CWA may be provided early this evening by a compact vort max
which was located near the OK panhandle this morning. This feature
looks a bit stronger on water vapor imagery than the models would
suggest, and it was already producing light radar returns across
northern OK and southern KS. Precip chances diminish quickly after
18z tomorrow due to subsidence behind the front, decreasing
moisture, and decreasing lift as the low pressure system pulls
away from the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The rest of the forecast looks dry and seasonably warm through the
middle of the week. A surface ridge axis will extend southwestward
from Ontario into MO/IL while an amplified upper ridge shifts
eastward over the area. There may be a chance of rain late in the
week (Thu/Fri) if the models are correct in developing a closed
low over the southern plains and if its influence extends far
enough eastward to affect sensible wx over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

High pressure over the area this morning producing light winds and
patchy fog primarily at locations in valleys or near rivers, i.e
SUS and CPS. Expect the fog to dissipate by 15z. The wind will
become southerly as the high shifts east and in advance of the
next cold front. Models have been trying to generate rain in
advance of the front for a couple of runs now. However not a lot
of moisture to work with, and pops still low so will leave the
forecast dry.

Specifics for KSTL: Fog has stayed away so expect a light south
southwest wind and VFR conditions to prevail through the day.
Looks like the next front will arrive about 15z Monday with a wind
shoft to the northwest. Lows pops so will keep the forecast dry
for now.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 190825
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
325 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The Canadian high pressure center which was located overhead early
this morning will shift southeastward today. Surface winds are
forecast to become southerly to southwesterly around the back side
of the high and ahead of an approaching cold front. The
clipper-like feature which will eventually drive this cold front
through the area was still located along the Alberta/Saskatchewan
border at 19/06z, but it is forecast to deepen and amplify as it
moves into the Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow. Models
show limited moisture being drawn into the region ahead of the
cold front, and this should be sufficient for sprinkles or light
rain showers. Even though the strongest lift will be farther to
the east, an additional source of weak lift over the southern LSX
CWA may be provided early this evening by a compact vort max
which was located near the OK panhandle this morning. This feature
looks a bit stronger on water vapor imagery than the models would
suggest, and it was already producing light radar returns across
northern OK and southern KS. Precip chances diminish quickly after
18z tomorrow due to subsidence behind the front, decreasing
moisture, and decreasing lift as the low pressure system pulls
away from the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The rest of the forecast looks dry and seasonably warm through the
middle of the week. A surface ridge axis will extend southwestward
from Ontario into MO/IL while an amplified upper ridge shifts
eastward over the area. There may be a chance of rain late in the
week (Thu/Fri) if the models are correct in developing a closed
low over the southern plains and if its influence extends far
enough eastward to affect sensible wx over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Frost is still possible at terminals. Light FG will also be
possible, but most likely locations are SUS/CPS. Otherwise, winds
will become sly to sswly late Sun morning and remain light.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the period. Frost will be
possible tonight. Winds will become sly late Sun morning and
remain light thru the period.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 190438
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1138 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Tonight)

Main concern is the potential for some patchy frost tonight.  Low
clouds were found across the northern and eastern parts of the CWA
this afternoon.  Expect these clouds to clear out early this evening
as with the loss of daytime heating at the same time drier begins to
move into the area from the north.  Temperatures have not climbed as
high as they otherwise could have where the clouds have been today.
However there has also not been much mixing in these areas either
which did not lower the dewpoints.  Still think that we should see
some of the lower dewpoints currently over Iowa advect into the area
tonight.  Skies will clear this evening and winds will turn light as
surface ridge moves across the area.  Have lowered temperatures a
degree or two below MOS guidance where the surface ridge will be at
12Z.  Have also added some patchy frost given the expected mid 30
lows, light winds and clear skies.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Still expect this to be mainly a dry forecast except for Sunday
night and Monday when a passing upper trough and attendant cold
front will bring a chance for isolated/scattered showers.  Still
have best chances from the St. Louis east and south based on the
consistent GFS/ECWMF solutions.  Do not expect as many clouds
tomorrow with highs in the 60s.  Temperatures by Monday will finally
return to the upper 60s and lower 70s.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

Expect continued dry weather during this period.  Both the ECMWF and
the GFS have an upper ridge over Missouri and Illinois as an upper
low sinks southeastward from the central Rockies into Texas.
Meanwhile the large east coast upper low will lift northeastward.
This pattern favors subsidence over our area.  Temperatures will be
close to seasonal normals with forecast soundings showing mixing
only to 900mb with temperatures in the 10-15C range at this level
through the period.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Frost is still possible at terminals. Light FG will also be
possible, but most likely locations are SUS/CPS. Otherwise, winds
will become sly to sswly late Sun morning and remain light.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the period. Frost will be
possible tonight. Winds will become sly late Sun morning and
remain light thru the period.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 182317
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
617 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Tonight)

Main concern is the potential for some patchy frost tonight.  Low
clouds were found across the northern and eastern parts of the CWA
this afternoon.  Expect these clouds to clear out early this evening
as with the loss of daytime heating at the same time drier begins to
move into the area from the north.  Temperatures have not climbed as
high as they otherwise could have where the clouds have been today.
However there has also not been much mixing in these areas either
which did not lower the dewpoints.  Still think that we should see
some of the lower dewpoints currently over Iowa advect into the area
tonight.  Skies will clear this evening and winds will turn light as
surface ridge moves across the area.  Have lowered temperatures a
degree or two below MOS guidance where the surface ridge will be at
12Z.  Have also added some patchy frost given the expected mid 30
lows, light winds and clear skies.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Still expect this to be mainly a dry forecast except for Sunday
night and Monday when a passing upper trough and attendant cold
front will bring a chance for isolated/scattered showers.  Still
have best chances from the St. Louis east and south based on the
consistent GFS/ECWMF solutions.  Do not expect as many clouds
tomorrow with highs in the 60s.  Temperatures by Monday will finally
return to the upper 60s and lower 70s.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

Expect continued dry weather during this period.  Both the ECMWF and
the GFS have an upper ridge over Missouri and Illinois as an upper
low sinks southeastward from the central Rockies into Texas.
Meanwhile the large east coast upper low will lift northeastward.
This pattern favors subsidence over our area.  Temperatures will be
close to seasonal normals with forecast soundings showing mixing
only to 900mb with temperatures in the 10-15C range at this level
through the period.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Winds will diminish quickly with sunset becoming light and vrb at
most locations. With light winds, frost will be possible at
terminals. Light FG will also be possible, but most likely
locations are SUS/CPS, but impacts are expected to be brief.
Otherwise, winds will become sly to sswly late Sun morning and
remain light.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will
diminish quickly with sunset. Frost will be possible late tonight.
Winds will become sly late Sun morning and remain light.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 182317
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
617 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Tonight)

Main concern is the potential for some patchy frost tonight.  Low
clouds were found across the northern and eastern parts of the CWA
this afternoon.  Expect these clouds to clear out early this evening
as with the loss of daytime heating at the same time drier begins to
move into the area from the north.  Temperatures have not climbed as
high as they otherwise could have where the clouds have been today.
However there has also not been much mixing in these areas either
which did not lower the dewpoints.  Still think that we should see
some of the lower dewpoints currently over Iowa advect into the area
tonight.  Skies will clear this evening and winds will turn light as
surface ridge moves across the area.  Have lowered temperatures a
degree or two below MOS guidance where the surface ridge will be at
12Z.  Have also added some patchy frost given the expected mid 30
lows, light winds and clear skies.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Still expect this to be mainly a dry forecast except for Sunday
night and Monday when a passing upper trough and attendant cold
front will bring a chance for isolated/scattered showers.  Still
have best chances from the St. Louis east and south based on the
consistent GFS/ECWMF solutions.  Do not expect as many clouds
tomorrow with highs in the 60s.  Temperatures by Monday will finally
return to the upper 60s and lower 70s.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

Expect continued dry weather during this period.  Both the ECMWF and
the GFS have an upper ridge over Missouri and Illinois as an upper
low sinks southeastward from the central Rockies into Texas.
Meanwhile the large east coast upper low will lift northeastward.
This pattern favors subsidence over our area.  Temperatures will be
close to seasonal normals with forecast soundings showing mixing
only to 900mb with temperatures in the 10-15C range at this level
through the period.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Winds will diminish quickly with sunset becoming light and vrb at
most locations. With light winds, frost will be possible at
terminals. Light FG will also be possible, but most likely
locations are SUS/CPS, but impacts are expected to be brief.
Otherwise, winds will become sly to sswly late Sun morning and
remain light.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will
diminish quickly with sunset. Frost will be possible late tonight.
Winds will become sly late Sun morning and remain light.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 182021
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
321 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Tonight)

Main concern is the potential for some patchy frost tonight.  Low
clouds were found across the northern and eastern parts of the CWA
this afternoon.  Expect these clouds to clear out early this evening
as with the loss of daytime heating at the same time drier begins to
move into the area from the north.  Temperatures have not climbed as
high as they otherwise could have where the clouds have been today.
However there has also not been much mixing in these areas either
which did not lower the dewpoints.  Still think that we should see
some of the lower dewpoints currently over Iowa advect into the area
tonight.  Skies will clear this evening and winds will turn light as
surface ridge moves across the area.  Have lowered temperatures a
degree or two below MOS guidance where the surface ridge will be at
12Z.  Have also added some patchy frost given the expected mid 30
lows, light winds and clear skies.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Still expect this to be mainly a dry forecast except for Sunday
night and Monday when a passing upper trough and attendant cold
front will bring a chance for isolated/scattered showers.  Still
have best chances from the St. Louis east and south based on the
consistent GFS/ECWMF solutions.  Do not expect as many clouds
tomorrow with highs in the 60s.  Temperatures by Monday will finally
return to the upper 60s and lower 70s.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

Expect continued dry weather during this period.  Both the ECMWF and
the GFS have an upper ridge over Missouri and Illinois as an upper
low sinks southeastward from the central Rockies into Texas.
Meanwhile the large east coast upper low will lift northeastward.
This pattern favors subsidence over our area.  Temperatures will be
close to seasonal normals with forecast soundings showing mixing
only to 900mb with temperatures in the 10-15C range at this level
through the period.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Scattered to broken clouds between 2.5Kft and 3.5Kft will continue
to move southward mainly over Illinois and parts of the eastern
third of Missouri. These clouds are in response to low-level
moisture moving southward between surface high from southern
Minnesota through eastern Nebraska and low center northeast of the
eastern Great Lakes region. Suraace winds of 10 kts with local
gusts of 15 kts can be expected this afternoon over eastern
Missouri and much of Illinois. As the surface high moves southeast
skies will clear this evening over the region.

Specifics for KSTL: Low level moisture from the north continues to
move southward over eastern Missouri and much of Illinois
resulting in scattered to broken layers of clouds. Surface winds
from the north-northwest of 10kts with gusts to 16kts will
diminish this evening. Skies will become mostly clear after
02-0300 UTC period.

Przybylinski

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 182021
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
321 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Tonight)

Main concern is the potential for some patchy frost tonight.  Low
clouds were found across the northern and eastern parts of the CWA
this afternoon.  Expect these clouds to clear out early this evening
as with the loss of daytime heating at the same time drier begins to
move into the area from the north.  Temperatures have not climbed as
high as they otherwise could have where the clouds have been today.
However there has also not been much mixing in these areas either
which did not lower the dewpoints.  Still think that we should see
some of the lower dewpoints currently over Iowa advect into the area
tonight.  Skies will clear this evening and winds will turn light as
surface ridge moves across the area.  Have lowered temperatures a
degree or two below MOS guidance where the surface ridge will be at
12Z.  Have also added some patchy frost given the expected mid 30
lows, light winds and clear skies.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Still expect this to be mainly a dry forecast except for Sunday
night and Monday when a passing upper trough and attendant cold
front will bring a chance for isolated/scattered showers.  Still
have best chances from the St. Louis east and south based on the
consistent GFS/ECWMF solutions.  Do not expect as many clouds
tomorrow with highs in the 60s.  Temperatures by Monday will finally
return to the upper 60s and lower 70s.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

Expect continued dry weather during this period.  Both the ECMWF and
the GFS have an upper ridge over Missouri and Illinois as an upper
low sinks southeastward from the central Rockies into Texas.
Meanwhile the large east coast upper low will lift northeastward.
This pattern favors subsidence over our area.  Temperatures will be
close to seasonal normals with forecast soundings showing mixing
only to 900mb with temperatures in the 10-15C range at this level
through the period.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Scattered to broken clouds between 2.5Kft and 3.5Kft will continue
to move southward mainly over Illinois and parts of the eastern
third of Missouri. These clouds are in response to low-level
moisture moving southward between surface high from southern
Minnesota through eastern Nebraska and low center northeast of the
eastern Great Lakes region. Suraace winds of 10 kts with local
gusts of 15 kts can be expected this afternoon over eastern
Missouri and much of Illinois. As the surface high moves southeast
skies will clear this evening over the region.

Specifics for KSTL: Low level moisture from the north continues to
move southward over eastern Missouri and much of Illinois
resulting in scattered to broken layers of clouds. Surface winds
from the north-northwest of 10kts with gusts to 16kts will
diminish this evening. Skies will become mostly clear after
02-0300 UTC period.

Przybylinski

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 181823
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
123 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Early morning water vapor imagery and RAP PV analyses both
depicted a strong shortwave located over northern MN and
southwestern ONT. This feature is forecast to dive southward and
southeastward today, moving through parts of central IL before
reaching KY and TN by 00z. This system appears to be
moisture-starved and no pcpn is expected with its passage near the
LSX CWA. Meanwhile, a cool Canadian high pressure center will
build in at the surface today and tonight. The ridge axis should
be nearly overhead by 12z, resulting in good radiational cooling
conditions and rather cool overnight/early morning lows for Sunday
morning. Patchy frost in sheltered areas is not out of the
question.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Winds become southerly to southwesterly on Sunday once the
aforementioned high pressure center shifts southeastward. Another
shortwave moving through the Great Lakes will lead to increased
precipitation chances from late Sunday night through Monday
afternoon. Models are showing at least some moisture being drawn
into the area ahead of the shortwave, therefore slight chance to
chance PoPs look appropriate at this time.

A pattern resembling an omega block is forecast over the CONUS for
most of next week. Dry easterly or southeasterly surface flow is
expected through the middle of the week across the LSX CWA.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM all agree that the highly amplified upper ridge axis
will shift eastward with time, but initially small differences in
the handling of a weak vort max crossing the Rockies ultimately
lead to large differences between models regarding the large scale
upper air pattern over the central CONUS by next Thursday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Scattered to broken clouds between 2.5Kft and 3.5Kft will continue
to move southward mainly over Illinois and parts of the eastern
third of Missouri. These clouds are in response to low-level
moisture moving southward between surface high from southern
Minnesota through eastern Nebraska and low center northeast of the
eastern Great Lakes region. Suraace winds of 10 kts with local
gusts of 15 kts can be expected this afternoon over eastern
Missouri and much of Illinois. As the surface high moves southeast
skies will clear this evening over the region.

Specifics for KSTL: Low level moisture from the north continues to
move southward over eastern Missouri and much of Illinois
resulting in scattered to broken layers of clouds. Surface winds
from the north-northwest of 10kts with gusts to 16kts will
diminish this evening. Skies will become mostly clear after
02-0300 UTC period.

Przybylinski

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 181823
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
123 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Early morning water vapor imagery and RAP PV analyses both
depicted a strong shortwave located over northern MN and
southwestern ONT. This feature is forecast to dive southward and
southeastward today, moving through parts of central IL before
reaching KY and TN by 00z. This system appears to be
moisture-starved and no pcpn is expected with its passage near the
LSX CWA. Meanwhile, a cool Canadian high pressure center will
build in at the surface today and tonight. The ridge axis should
be nearly overhead by 12z, resulting in good radiational cooling
conditions and rather cool overnight/early morning lows for Sunday
morning. Patchy frost in sheltered areas is not out of the
question.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Winds become southerly to southwesterly on Sunday once the
aforementioned high pressure center shifts southeastward. Another
shortwave moving through the Great Lakes will lead to increased
precipitation chances from late Sunday night through Monday
afternoon. Models are showing at least some moisture being drawn
into the area ahead of the shortwave, therefore slight chance to
chance PoPs look appropriate at this time.

A pattern resembling an omega block is forecast over the CONUS for
most of next week. Dry easterly or southeasterly surface flow is
expected through the middle of the week across the LSX CWA.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM all agree that the highly amplified upper ridge axis
will shift eastward with time, but initially small differences in
the handling of a weak vort max crossing the Rockies ultimately
lead to large differences between models regarding the large scale
upper air pattern over the central CONUS by next Thursday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Scattered to broken clouds between 2.5Kft and 3.5Kft will continue
to move southward mainly over Illinois and parts of the eastern
third of Missouri. These clouds are in response to low-level
moisture moving southward between surface high from southern
Minnesota through eastern Nebraska and low center northeast of the
eastern Great Lakes region. Suraace winds of 10 kts with local
gusts of 15 kts can be expected this afternoon over eastern
Missouri and much of Illinois. As the surface high moves southeast
skies will clear this evening over the region.

Specifics for KSTL: Low level moisture from the north continues to
move southward over eastern Missouri and much of Illinois
resulting in scattered to broken layers of clouds. Surface winds
from the north-northwest of 10kts with gusts to 16kts will
diminish this evening. Skies will become mostly clear after
02-0300 UTC period.

Przybylinski

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 181132
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
632 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Early morning water vapor imagery and RAP PV analyses both
depicted a strong shortwave located over northern MN and
southwestern ONT. This feature is forecast to dive southward and
southeastward today, moving through parts of central IL before
reaching KY and TN by 00z. This system appears to be
moisture-starved and no pcpn is expected with its passage near the
LSX CWA. Meanwhile, a cool Canadian high pressure center will
build in at the surface today and tonight. The ridge axis should
be nearly overhead by 12z, resulting in good radiational cooling
conditions and rather cool overnight/early morning lows for Sunday
morning. Patchy frost in sheltered areas is not out of the
question.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Winds become southerly to southwesterly on Sunday once the
aforementioned high pressure center shifts southeastward. Another
shortwave moving through the Great Lakes will lead to increased
precipitation chances from late Sunday night through Monday
afternoon. Models are showing at least some moisture being drawn
into the area ahead of the shortwave, therefore slight chance to
chance PoPs look appropriate at this time.

A pattern resembling an omega block is forecast over the CONUS for
most of next week. Dry easterly or southeasterly surface flow is
expected through the middle of the week across the LSX CWA.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM all agree that the highly amplified upper ridge axis
will shift eastward with time, but initially small differences in
the handling of a weak vort max crossing the Rockies ultimately
lead to large differences between models regarding the large scale
upper air pattern over the central CONUS by next Thursday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Fast moving short wave aloft will move through today reinforcing
the cool air and keeping a north northwest wind flow. MVFR clouds
will move quickly across Iowa into UIN by late morning and into
COU by Noon. Guidance keeps the clouds VFR, and given the time of
of arrival and the fact the short wave will be shearing east more
than diving south, will go with this scenario. However an hour or
so of MVRF is possible. High pressure will move in overnight with
light and variable wind. Guidance wants to bring in fog at the
usual suspects (SUS, CPS) about 12z. With 00kt wind and clear sky,
possible, but will leave out for now given the time of expected
formation being at the end of the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR expected with a northwest wind today
becoming light and variable overnight as high pressure moves
overhead. Southerly wind returns Sunday moring as the high quickly
moves east.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 181132
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
632 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Early morning water vapor imagery and RAP PV analyses both
depicted a strong shortwave located over northern MN and
southwestern ONT. This feature is forecast to dive southward and
southeastward today, moving through parts of central IL before
reaching KY and TN by 00z. This system appears to be
moisture-starved and no pcpn is expected with its passage near the
LSX CWA. Meanwhile, a cool Canadian high pressure center will
build in at the surface today and tonight. The ridge axis should
be nearly overhead by 12z, resulting in good radiational cooling
conditions and rather cool overnight/early morning lows for Sunday
morning. Patchy frost in sheltered areas is not out of the
question.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Winds become southerly to southwesterly on Sunday once the
aforementioned high pressure center shifts southeastward. Another
shortwave moving through the Great Lakes will lead to increased
precipitation chances from late Sunday night through Monday
afternoon. Models are showing at least some moisture being drawn
into the area ahead of the shortwave, therefore slight chance to
chance PoPs look appropriate at this time.

A pattern resembling an omega block is forecast over the CONUS for
most of next week. Dry easterly or southeasterly surface flow is
expected through the middle of the week across the LSX CWA.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM all agree that the highly amplified upper ridge axis
will shift eastward with time, but initially small differences in
the handling of a weak vort max crossing the Rockies ultimately
lead to large differences between models regarding the large scale
upper air pattern over the central CONUS by next Thursday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Fast moving short wave aloft will move through today reinforcing
the cool air and keeping a north northwest wind flow. MVFR clouds
will move quickly across Iowa into UIN by late morning and into
COU by Noon. Guidance keeps the clouds VFR, and given the time of
of arrival and the fact the short wave will be shearing east more
than diving south, will go with this scenario. However an hour or
so of MVRF is possible. High pressure will move in overnight with
light and variable wind. Guidance wants to bring in fog at the
usual suspects (SUS, CPS) about 12z. With 00kt wind and clear sky,
possible, but will leave out for now given the time of expected
formation being at the end of the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR expected with a northwest wind today
becoming light and variable overnight as high pressure moves
overhead. Southerly wind returns Sunday moring as the high quickly
moves east.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 181132
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
632 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Early morning water vapor imagery and RAP PV analyses both
depicted a strong shortwave located over northern MN and
southwestern ONT. This feature is forecast to dive southward and
southeastward today, moving through parts of central IL before
reaching KY and TN by 00z. This system appears to be
moisture-starved and no pcpn is expected with its passage near the
LSX CWA. Meanwhile, a cool Canadian high pressure center will
build in at the surface today and tonight. The ridge axis should
be nearly overhead by 12z, resulting in good radiational cooling
conditions and rather cool overnight/early morning lows for Sunday
morning. Patchy frost in sheltered areas is not out of the
question.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Winds become southerly to southwesterly on Sunday once the
aforementioned high pressure center shifts southeastward. Another
shortwave moving through the Great Lakes will lead to increased
precipitation chances from late Sunday night through Monday
afternoon. Models are showing at least some moisture being drawn
into the area ahead of the shortwave, therefore slight chance to
chance PoPs look appropriate at this time.

A pattern resembling an omega block is forecast over the CONUS for
most of next week. Dry easterly or southeasterly surface flow is
expected through the middle of the week across the LSX CWA.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM all agree that the highly amplified upper ridge axis
will shift eastward with time, but initially small differences in
the handling of a weak vort max crossing the Rockies ultimately
lead to large differences between models regarding the large scale
upper air pattern over the central CONUS by next Thursday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Fast moving short wave aloft will move through today reinforcing
the cool air and keeping a north northwest wind flow. MVFR clouds
will move quickly across Iowa into UIN by late morning and into
COU by Noon. Guidance keeps the clouds VFR, and given the time of
of arrival and the fact the short wave will be shearing east more
than diving south, will go with this scenario. However an hour or
so of MVRF is possible. High pressure will move in overnight with
light and variable wind. Guidance wants to bring in fog at the
usual suspects (SUS, CPS) about 12z. With 00kt wind and clear sky,
possible, but will leave out for now given the time of expected
formation being at the end of the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR expected with a northwest wind today
becoming light and variable overnight as high pressure moves
overhead. Southerly wind returns Sunday moring as the high quickly
moves east.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 181132
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
632 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Early morning water vapor imagery and RAP PV analyses both
depicted a strong shortwave located over northern MN and
southwestern ONT. This feature is forecast to dive southward and
southeastward today, moving through parts of central IL before
reaching KY and TN by 00z. This system appears to be
moisture-starved and no pcpn is expected with its passage near the
LSX CWA. Meanwhile, a cool Canadian high pressure center will
build in at the surface today and tonight. The ridge axis should
be nearly overhead by 12z, resulting in good radiational cooling
conditions and rather cool overnight/early morning lows for Sunday
morning. Patchy frost in sheltered areas is not out of the
question.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Winds become southerly to southwesterly on Sunday once the
aforementioned high pressure center shifts southeastward. Another
shortwave moving through the Great Lakes will lead to increased
precipitation chances from late Sunday night through Monday
afternoon. Models are showing at least some moisture being drawn
into the area ahead of the shortwave, therefore slight chance to
chance PoPs look appropriate at this time.

A pattern resembling an omega block is forecast over the CONUS for
most of next week. Dry easterly or southeasterly surface flow is
expected through the middle of the week across the LSX CWA.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM all agree that the highly amplified upper ridge axis
will shift eastward with time, but initially small differences in
the handling of a weak vort max crossing the Rockies ultimately
lead to large differences between models regarding the large scale
upper air pattern over the central CONUS by next Thursday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Fast moving short wave aloft will move through today reinforcing
the cool air and keeping a north northwest wind flow. MVFR clouds
will move quickly across Iowa into UIN by late morning and into
COU by Noon. Guidance keeps the clouds VFR, and given the time of
of arrival and the fact the short wave will be shearing east more
than diving south, will go with this scenario. However an hour or
so of MVRF is possible. High pressure will move in overnight with
light and variable wind. Guidance wants to bring in fog at the
usual suspects (SUS, CPS) about 12z. With 00kt wind and clear sky,
possible, but will leave out for now given the time of expected
formation being at the end of the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR expected with a northwest wind today
becoming light and variable overnight as high pressure moves
overhead. Southerly wind returns Sunday moring as the high quickly
moves east.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







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