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000
FXUS63 KLSX 262342
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
642 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

An expansive area of high pressure will continue to build southward
through the Mississippi Valley leading to light winds and a cool
night across the region. Skies will be predominately clear with an
increase in high clouds late tonight across southern Missouri in
association with the advancing southwestern U.S. upper low. Outside
of the highly urbanized areas, temperatures early Monday morning
will bottom out in the upper 30s. If temps drop 2-3 degrees cooler
than currently forecast in some of the remote areas, there could
be some short-lived patchy frost.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The pattern looks to remain tranquil through the bulk of the week.
The eastern U.S. vortex/upper trof will migrate eastward but will keep
high pressure locked in at the surface. Meanwhile the southwest
U.S. upper low/trof will continue to advance into the Southern
Plains on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday night/Wed. The
main influence of this southern system should be just an increase
in high clouds. Something to keep an eye on however is an upper
low/trof that will drop south from the upper MS Valley and into
Nation`s midsection on Wednesday following in behind the eastward
migrating southern system. A rather prominent cold pocket aloft
with accompany this southward dropping upper low, which will
contribute to more cloud cover and possibly some isolated diurnally
driven showers. At this time I have the forecast void of any
precipitation, but it is something we will have to key a close eye
on as the period gets closer.

By late Thursday the two systems merge into an elongated positively
tilted trof centered through the eastern U.S. which eventually
progresses off the Atlantic Coast by early Saturday. Height rises
will commence in the wake of this departing trof beginning on
Thursday as the whole upper air pattern across the CONUS transitions
to a much flatter flow regime and ridging aloft builds eastward
through the MS Valley. Accompanying the transition will be a
return of warmer temperatures by next weekend, and possibly a
threat of a few showers and thunderstorms associated with low
level warm advection/moisture return and weak migratory disturbances
topping the flat ridge aloft.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

VFR fcst thru the prd with sfc ridge in control. Persistent N/NE
flow with ridge axis remaining aligned along the MS Rvr which may
allow winds to become lght/vrb tonight. Think there may be some
diurnal cu tomorrow aftn.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst with NE flow and diurnal cu.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 262342
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
642 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

An expansive area of high pressure will continue to build southward
through the Mississippi Valley leading to light winds and a cool
night across the region. Skies will be predominately clear with an
increase in high clouds late tonight across southern Missouri in
association with the advancing southwestern U.S. upper low. Outside
of the highly urbanized areas, temperatures early Monday morning
will bottom out in the upper 30s. If temps drop 2-3 degrees cooler
than currently forecast in some of the remote areas, there could
be some short-lived patchy frost.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The pattern looks to remain tranquil through the bulk of the week.
The eastern U.S. vortex/upper trof will migrate eastward but will keep
high pressure locked in at the surface. Meanwhile the southwest
U.S. upper low/trof will continue to advance into the Southern
Plains on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday night/Wed. The
main influence of this southern system should be just an increase
in high clouds. Something to keep an eye on however is an upper
low/trof that will drop south from the upper MS Valley and into
Nation`s midsection on Wednesday following in behind the eastward
migrating southern system. A rather prominent cold pocket aloft
with accompany this southward dropping upper low, which will
contribute to more cloud cover and possibly some isolated diurnally
driven showers. At this time I have the forecast void of any
precipitation, but it is something we will have to key a close eye
on as the period gets closer.

By late Thursday the two systems merge into an elongated positively
tilted trof centered through the eastern U.S. which eventually
progresses off the Atlantic Coast by early Saturday. Height rises
will commence in the wake of this departing trof beginning on
Thursday as the whole upper air pattern across the CONUS transitions
to a much flatter flow regime and ridging aloft builds eastward
through the MS Valley. Accompanying the transition will be a
return of warmer temperatures by next weekend, and possibly a
threat of a few showers and thunderstorms associated with low
level warm advection/moisture return and weak migratory disturbances
topping the flat ridge aloft.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

VFR fcst thru the prd with sfc ridge in control. Persistent N/NE
flow with ridge axis remaining aligned along the MS Rvr which may
allow winds to become lght/vrb tonight. Think there may be some
diurnal cu tomorrow aftn.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst with NE flow and diurnal cu.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 262342
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
642 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

An expansive area of high pressure will continue to build southward
through the Mississippi Valley leading to light winds and a cool
night across the region. Skies will be predominately clear with an
increase in high clouds late tonight across southern Missouri in
association with the advancing southwestern U.S. upper low. Outside
of the highly urbanized areas, temperatures early Monday morning
will bottom out in the upper 30s. If temps drop 2-3 degrees cooler
than currently forecast in some of the remote areas, there could
be some short-lived patchy frost.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The pattern looks to remain tranquil through the bulk of the week.
The eastern U.S. vortex/upper trof will migrate eastward but will keep
high pressure locked in at the surface. Meanwhile the southwest
U.S. upper low/trof will continue to advance into the Southern
Plains on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday night/Wed. The
main influence of this southern system should be just an increase
in high clouds. Something to keep an eye on however is an upper
low/trof that will drop south from the upper MS Valley and into
Nation`s midsection on Wednesday following in behind the eastward
migrating southern system. A rather prominent cold pocket aloft
with accompany this southward dropping upper low, which will
contribute to more cloud cover and possibly some isolated diurnally
driven showers. At this time I have the forecast void of any
precipitation, but it is something we will have to key a close eye
on as the period gets closer.

By late Thursday the two systems merge into an elongated positively
tilted trof centered through the eastern U.S. which eventually
progresses off the Atlantic Coast by early Saturday. Height rises
will commence in the wake of this departing trof beginning on
Thursday as the whole upper air pattern across the CONUS transitions
to a much flatter flow regime and ridging aloft builds eastward
through the MS Valley. Accompanying the transition will be a
return of warmer temperatures by next weekend, and possibly a
threat of a few showers and thunderstorms associated with low
level warm advection/moisture return and weak migratory disturbances
topping the flat ridge aloft.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

VFR fcst thru the prd with sfc ridge in control. Persistent N/NE
flow with ridge axis remaining aligned along the MS Rvr which may
allow winds to become lght/vrb tonight. Think there may be some
diurnal cu tomorrow aftn.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst with NE flow and diurnal cu.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 262342
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
642 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

An expansive area of high pressure will continue to build southward
through the Mississippi Valley leading to light winds and a cool
night across the region. Skies will be predominately clear with an
increase in high clouds late tonight across southern Missouri in
association with the advancing southwestern U.S. upper low. Outside
of the highly urbanized areas, temperatures early Monday morning
will bottom out in the upper 30s. If temps drop 2-3 degrees cooler
than currently forecast in some of the remote areas, there could
be some short-lived patchy frost.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The pattern looks to remain tranquil through the bulk of the week.
The eastern U.S. vortex/upper trof will migrate eastward but will keep
high pressure locked in at the surface. Meanwhile the southwest
U.S. upper low/trof will continue to advance into the Southern
Plains on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday night/Wed. The
main influence of this southern system should be just an increase
in high clouds. Something to keep an eye on however is an upper
low/trof that will drop south from the upper MS Valley and into
Nation`s midsection on Wednesday following in behind the eastward
migrating southern system. A rather prominent cold pocket aloft
with accompany this southward dropping upper low, which will
contribute to more cloud cover and possibly some isolated diurnally
driven showers. At this time I have the forecast void of any
precipitation, but it is something we will have to key a close eye
on as the period gets closer.

By late Thursday the two systems merge into an elongated positively
tilted trof centered through the eastern U.S. which eventually
progresses off the Atlantic Coast by early Saturday. Height rises
will commence in the wake of this departing trof beginning on
Thursday as the whole upper air pattern across the CONUS transitions
to a much flatter flow regime and ridging aloft builds eastward
through the MS Valley. Accompanying the transition will be a
return of warmer temperatures by next weekend, and possibly a
threat of a few showers and thunderstorms associated with low
level warm advection/moisture return and weak migratory disturbances
topping the flat ridge aloft.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

VFR fcst thru the prd with sfc ridge in control. Persistent N/NE
flow with ridge axis remaining aligned along the MS Rvr which may
allow winds to become lght/vrb tonight. Think there may be some
diurnal cu tomorrow aftn.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst with NE flow and diurnal cu.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 262011
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
311 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

An expansive area of high pressure will continue to build southward
through the Mississippi Valley leading to light winds and a cool
night across the region. Skies will be predominately clear with an
increase in high clouds late tonight across southern Missouri in
assocation with the advancing southwestern U.S. upper low. Outside
of the highly urbanized areas, temperatures early Monday morning
will bottom out in the upper 30s. If temps drop 2-3 degrees cooler
than currently forecast in some of the remote areas, there could
be some short-lived patchy frost.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The pattern looks to remain tranquil through the bulk of the week.
The eastern U.S. vortex/upper trof will migrate eastward but will keep
high pressure locked in at the surface. Meanwhile the southwest
U.S. upper low/trof will continue to advance into the Southern
Plains on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday night/Wed. The
main influence of this southern system should be just an increase
in high clouds. Something to keep an eye on however is an upper
low/trof that will drop south from the upper MS Valley and into
Nation`s midsection on Wednesday following in behind the eastward
migrating southern system. A rather prominent cold pocket aloft
with accompany this southward dropping upper low, which will
contribute to more cloud cover and possibly some isolated diurnally
driven showers. At this time I have the forecast void of any
precipitation, but it is something we will have to key a close eye
on as the period gets closer.

By late Thursday the two systems merge into an elongated positively
tilted trof centered through the eastern U.S. which eventually
progresses off the Atlantic Coast by early Saturday. Height rises
will commence in the wake of this departing trof beginning on
Thursday as the whole upper air pattern across the CONUS transitions
to a much flatter flow regime and ridging aloft builds eastward
through the MS Valley. Accompanying the transition will be a
return of warmer temperatures by next weekend, and possibly a
threat of a few showers and thunderstorms associated with low
level warm advection/moisture return and weak migratory disturbances
topping the flat ridge aloft.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Ridge of high pressure is building across the region. Expect
northeast flow to continue, and remaining MVFR clouds to continue
pushing south/southwest through the afternoon and early evening.
VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail outside of the areas
of lingering clouds this afternoon, and will prevail after the
clouds exit the forecast area.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and northeast wind will prevail at Lambert
through Monday. Prevailing wind direction will be nearly a direct
crosswind on the main runways. Tried to give the best prevailing
wind direction possible, which looks to be south of 30 degrees for
most of the period through Monday. That being said, occasional
jogs north of 30 degrees look likely through this afternoon.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 262011
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
311 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

An expansive area of high pressure will continue to build southward
through the Mississippi Valley leading to light winds and a cool
night across the region. Skies will be predominately clear with an
increase in high clouds late tonight across southern Missouri in
assocation with the advancing southwestern U.S. upper low. Outside
of the highly urbanized areas, temperatures early Monday morning
will bottom out in the upper 30s. If temps drop 2-3 degrees cooler
than currently forecast in some of the remote areas, there could
be some short-lived patchy frost.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The pattern looks to remain tranquil through the bulk of the week.
The eastern U.S. vortex/upper trof will migrate eastward but will keep
high pressure locked in at the surface. Meanwhile the southwest
U.S. upper low/trof will continue to advance into the Southern
Plains on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday night/Wed. The
main influence of this southern system should be just an increase
in high clouds. Something to keep an eye on however is an upper
low/trof that will drop south from the upper MS Valley and into
Nation`s midsection on Wednesday following in behind the eastward
migrating southern system. A rather prominent cold pocket aloft
with accompany this southward dropping upper low, which will
contribute to more cloud cover and possibly some isolated diurnally
driven showers. At this time I have the forecast void of any
precipitation, but it is something we will have to key a close eye
on as the period gets closer.

By late Thursday the two systems merge into an elongated positively
tilted trof centered through the eastern U.S. which eventually
progresses off the Atlantic Coast by early Saturday. Height rises
will commence in the wake of this departing trof beginning on
Thursday as the whole upper air pattern across the CONUS transitions
to a much flatter flow regime and ridging aloft builds eastward
through the MS Valley. Accompanying the transition will be a
return of warmer temperatures by next weekend, and possibly a
threat of a few showers and thunderstorms associated with low
level warm advection/moisture return and weak migratory disturbances
topping the flat ridge aloft.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Ridge of high pressure is building across the region. Expect
northeast flow to continue, and remaining MVFR clouds to continue
pushing south/southwest through the afternoon and early evening.
VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail outside of the areas
of lingering clouds this afternoon, and will prevail after the
clouds exit the forecast area.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and northeast wind will prevail at Lambert
through Monday. Prevailing wind direction will be nearly a direct
crosswind on the main runways. Tried to give the best prevailing
wind direction possible, which looks to be south of 30 degrees for
most of the period through Monday. That being said, occasional
jogs north of 30 degrees look likely through this afternoon.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 261803
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
103 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Quiet weather is expected today. Temperatures across the southern
two-thirds of the CWA may be initially slow to warm due to
extensive morning cloud cover, but temperatures ought to rise
quickly after the stratus scatters out this afternoon, allowing
highs to reach the lower 60s for most of the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

There is very little to discuss in the extended forecast. The
strong PV anomaly noted on 26/07z water vapor imagery near the
CA/AZ border is forecast to close off as it slowly progresses
eastward over the next few days, likely passing south of the CWA.
It is possible that the extreme southern CWA could be on the
extreme northern fringe of the precip shield, but confidence is
too low to introduce PoPs attm. There are some model differences
during the middle of the week with respect to a northwest flow
vort max and its interaction with the aforementioned slow-moving
low pressure system, but moisture appears limited across this part
of the country. Even if a vort max does approach the CWA, an
increase in cloud cover seems more likely than precipitation. In
the absence of any large scale air mass exchanges and with a
steady northerly flow component at the surface, temperatures over
the next several days will tend to moderate slowly towards more
seasonable values with day to day variations largely dependent on
the amount of cloud cover. Precip chances increase marginally
towards the end of the week and into the early part of next
weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Ridge of high pressure is building across the region. Expect
northeast flow to continue, and remaining MVFR clouds to continue
pushing south/southwest through the afternoon and early evening.
VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail outside of the areas
of lingering clouds this afternoon, and will prevail after the
clouds exit the forecast area.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and northeast wind will prevail at Lambert
through Monday. Prevailing wind direction will be nearly a direct
crosswind on the main runways. Tried to give the best prevailing
wind direction possible, which looks to be south of 30 degrees for
most of the period through Monday. That being said, occasional
jogs north of 30 degrees look likely through this afternoon.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 261803
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
103 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Quiet weather is expected today. Temperatures across the southern
two-thirds of the CWA may be initially slow to warm due to
extensive morning cloud cover, but temperatures ought to rise
quickly after the stratus scatters out this afternoon, allowing
highs to reach the lower 60s for most of the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

There is very little to discuss in the extended forecast. The
strong PV anomaly noted on 26/07z water vapor imagery near the
CA/AZ border is forecast to close off as it slowly progresses
eastward over the next few days, likely passing south of the CWA.
It is possible that the extreme southern CWA could be on the
extreme northern fringe of the precip shield, but confidence is
too low to introduce PoPs attm. There are some model differences
during the middle of the week with respect to a northwest flow
vort max and its interaction with the aforementioned slow-moving
low pressure system, but moisture appears limited across this part
of the country. Even if a vort max does approach the CWA, an
increase in cloud cover seems more likely than precipitation. In
the absence of any large scale air mass exchanges and with a
steady northerly flow component at the surface, temperatures over
the next several days will tend to moderate slowly towards more
seasonable values with day to day variations largely dependent on
the amount of cloud cover. Precip chances increase marginally
towards the end of the week and into the early part of next
weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Ridge of high pressure is building across the region. Expect
northeast flow to continue, and remaining MVFR clouds to continue
pushing south/southwest through the afternoon and early evening.
VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail outside of the areas
of lingering clouds this afternoon, and will prevail after the
clouds exit the forecast area.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and northeast wind will prevail at Lambert
through Monday. Prevailing wind direction will be nearly a direct
crosswind on the main runways. Tried to give the best prevailing
wind direction possible, which looks to be south of 30 degrees for
most of the period through Monday. That being said, occasional
jogs north of 30 degrees look likely through this afternoon.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 261803
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
103 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Quiet weather is expected today. Temperatures across the southern
two-thirds of the CWA may be initially slow to warm due to
extensive morning cloud cover, but temperatures ought to rise
quickly after the stratus scatters out this afternoon, allowing
highs to reach the lower 60s for most of the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

There is very little to discuss in the extended forecast. The
strong PV anomaly noted on 26/07z water vapor imagery near the
CA/AZ border is forecast to close off as it slowly progresses
eastward over the next few days, likely passing south of the CWA.
It is possible that the extreme southern CWA could be on the
extreme northern fringe of the precip shield, but confidence is
too low to introduce PoPs attm. There are some model differences
during the middle of the week with respect to a northwest flow
vort max and its interaction with the aforementioned slow-moving
low pressure system, but moisture appears limited across this part
of the country. Even if a vort max does approach the CWA, an
increase in cloud cover seems more likely than precipitation. In
the absence of any large scale air mass exchanges and with a
steady northerly flow component at the surface, temperatures over
the next several days will tend to moderate slowly towards more
seasonable values with day to day variations largely dependent on
the amount of cloud cover. Precip chances increase marginally
towards the end of the week and into the early part of next
weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Ridge of high pressure is building across the region. Expect
northeast flow to continue, and remaining MVFR clouds to continue
pushing south/southwest through the afternoon and early evening.
VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail outside of the areas
of lingering clouds this afternoon, and will prevail after the
clouds exit the forecast area.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and northeast wind will prevail at Lambert
through Monday. Prevailing wind direction will be nearly a direct
crosswind on the main runways. Tried to give the best prevailing
wind direction possible, which looks to be south of 30 degrees for
most of the period through Monday. That being said, occasional
jogs north of 30 degrees look likely through this afternoon.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 261032
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
532 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Quiet weather is expected today. Temperatures across the southern
two-thirds of the CWA may be initially slow to warm due to
extensive morning cloud cover, but temperatures ought to rise
quickly after the stratus scatters out this afternoon, allowing
highs to reach the lower 60s for most of the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

There is very little to discuss in the extended forecast. The
strong PV anomaly noted on 26/07z water vapor imagery near the
CA/AZ border is forecast to close off as it slowly progresses
eastward over the next few days, likely passing south of the CWA.
It is possible that the extreme southern CWA could be on the
extreme northern fringe of the precip shield, but confidence is
too low to introduce PoPs attm. There are some model differences
during the middle of the week with respect to a northwest flow
vort max and its interaction with the aforementioned slow-moving
low pressure system, but moisture appears limited across this part
of the country. Even if a vort max does approach the CWA, an
increase in cloud cover seems more likely than precipitation. In
the absence of any large scale air mass exchanges and with a
steady northerly flow component at the surface, temperatures over
the next several days will tend to moderate slowly towards more
seasonable values with day to day variations largely dependent on
the amount of cloud cover. Precip chances increase marginally
towards the end of the week and into the early part of next
weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The stratus clouds were clearing out across parts of northeast MO
and west central IL early this morning as nely winds were bringing
drier air into the region. This clearing line will continue to
progress southwestward this morning with the MVFR, low level cloud
ceiling in COU and the St Louis metro area slowly rising and
eventually scattering out later this morning. Little if any
cloudiness is expected this afternoon and tonight, maybe a little
cirrus with subsidence across the area as the surface ridge
centered over MN and WI builds southward into the region. Nely
surface winds will continue through the period becoming quite light
later tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs along with patchy light fog and
drizzle can be expected early this morning with the cloud ceiling
rising and eventually scattering out around 15z this morning.
Little if any cloudiness is expected from this afternoon through
Monday morning, except a little cirrus clouds. Nely surface wind
will continue today, becoming light by late tonight, then increasing
again Monday morning.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 261032
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
532 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Quiet weather is expected today. Temperatures across the southern
two-thirds of the CWA may be initially slow to warm due to
extensive morning cloud cover, but temperatures ought to rise
quickly after the stratus scatters out this afternoon, allowing
highs to reach the lower 60s for most of the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

There is very little to discuss in the extended forecast. The
strong PV anomaly noted on 26/07z water vapor imagery near the
CA/AZ border is forecast to close off as it slowly progresses
eastward over the next few days, likely passing south of the CWA.
It is possible that the extreme southern CWA could be on the
extreme northern fringe of the precip shield, but confidence is
too low to introduce PoPs attm. There are some model differences
during the middle of the week with respect to a northwest flow
vort max and its interaction with the aforementioned slow-moving
low pressure system, but moisture appears limited across this part
of the country. Even if a vort max does approach the CWA, an
increase in cloud cover seems more likely than precipitation. In
the absence of any large scale air mass exchanges and with a
steady northerly flow component at the surface, temperatures over
the next several days will tend to moderate slowly towards more
seasonable values with day to day variations largely dependent on
the amount of cloud cover. Precip chances increase marginally
towards the end of the week and into the early part of next
weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The stratus clouds were clearing out across parts of northeast MO
and west central IL early this morning as nely winds were bringing
drier air into the region. This clearing line will continue to
progress southwestward this morning with the MVFR, low level cloud
ceiling in COU and the St Louis metro area slowly rising and
eventually scattering out later this morning. Little if any
cloudiness is expected this afternoon and tonight, maybe a little
cirrus with subsidence across the area as the surface ridge
centered over MN and WI builds southward into the region. Nely
surface winds will continue through the period becoming quite light
later tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs along with patchy light fog and
drizzle can be expected early this morning with the cloud ceiling
rising and eventually scattering out around 15z this morning.
Little if any cloudiness is expected from this afternoon through
Monday morning, except a little cirrus clouds. Nely surface wind
will continue today, becoming light by late tonight, then increasing
again Monday morning.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 260819
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
319 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Quiet weather is expected today. Temperatures across the southern
two-thirds of the CWA may be initially slow to warm due to
extensive morning cloud cover, but temperatures ought to rise
quickly after the stratus scatters out this afternoon, allowing
highs to reach the lower 60s for most of the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

There is very little to discuss in the extended forecast. The
strong PV anomaly noted on 26/07z water vapor imagery near the
CA/AZ border is forecast to close off as it slowly progresses
eastward over the next few days, likely passing south of the CWA.
It is possible that the extreme southern CWA could be on the
extreme northern fringe of the precip shield, but confidence is
too low to introduce PoPs attm. There are some model differences
during the middle of the week with respect to a northwest flow
vort max and its interaction with the aforementioned slow-moving
low pressure system, but moisture appears limited across this part
of the country. Even if a vort max does approach the CWA, an
increase in cloud cover seems more likely than precipitation. In
the absence of any large scale air mass exchanges and with a
steady northerly flow component at the surface, temperatures over
the next several days will tend to moderate slowly towards more
seasonable values with day to day variations largely dependent on
the amount of cloud cover. Precip chances increase marginally
towards the end of the week and into the early part of next
weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Band of IFR CIGs will continue to drop south overnight. Assoc -DZ
should also come to an end over the next few hours. Dry NE flow is
expected to push the IFR CIGs south of the terminals early this
mrng leaving a low end VFR CIG deck in place for most of the day.
Model RH indicates the VFR CIGs should clear out drng the late
mrng but based on the existing amount of upstream cloud
cover...think that might be too optimistic...plus there should be a
diurnal component to the clouds as well. Skies should clear out by
Sunday night.

Specifics for KSTL:

-DZ should be coming to an end around 6Z. IFR CIGs are expected to
remain thru the night and slowly raise Sunday mrng becoming VFR by
mid morning as the cloud deck drfts south. Clouds should clear by
tomorrow evng.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260819
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
319 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Quiet weather is expected today. Temperatures across the southern
two-thirds of the CWA may be initially slow to warm due to
extensive morning cloud cover, but temperatures ought to rise
quickly after the stratus scatters out this afternoon, allowing
highs to reach the lower 60s for most of the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

There is very little to discuss in the extended forecast. The
strong PV anomaly noted on 26/07z water vapor imagery near the
CA/AZ border is forecast to close off as it slowly progresses
eastward over the next few days, likely passing south of the CWA.
It is possible that the extreme southern CWA could be on the
extreme northern fringe of the precip shield, but confidence is
too low to introduce PoPs attm. There are some model differences
during the middle of the week with respect to a northwest flow
vort max and its interaction with the aforementioned slow-moving
low pressure system, but moisture appears limited across this part
of the country. Even if a vort max does approach the CWA, an
increase in cloud cover seems more likely than precipitation. In
the absence of any large scale air mass exchanges and with a
steady northerly flow component at the surface, temperatures over
the next several days will tend to moderate slowly towards more
seasonable values with day to day variations largely dependent on
the amount of cloud cover. Precip chances increase marginally
towards the end of the week and into the early part of next
weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Band of IFR CIGs will continue to drop south overnight. Assoc -DZ
should also come to an end over the next few hours. Dry NE flow is
expected to push the IFR CIGs south of the terminals early this
mrng leaving a low end VFR CIG deck in place for most of the day.
Model RH indicates the VFR CIGs should clear out drng the late
mrng but based on the existing amount of upstream cloud
cover...think that might be too optimistic...plus there should be a
diurnal component to the clouds as well. Skies should clear out by
Sunday night.

Specifics for KSTL:

-DZ should be coming to an end around 6Z. IFR CIGs are expected to
remain thru the night and slowly raise Sunday mrng becoming VFR by
mid morning as the cloud deck drfts south. Clouds should clear by
tomorrow evng.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 260819
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
319 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Quiet weather is expected today. Temperatures across the southern
two-thirds of the CWA may be initially slow to warm due to
extensive morning cloud cover, but temperatures ought to rise
quickly after the stratus scatters out this afternoon, allowing
highs to reach the lower 60s for most of the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

There is very little to discuss in the extended forecast. The
strong PV anomaly noted on 26/07z water vapor imagery near the
CA/AZ border is forecast to close off as it slowly progresses
eastward over the next few days, likely passing south of the CWA.
It is possible that the extreme southern CWA could be on the
extreme northern fringe of the precip shield, but confidence is
too low to introduce PoPs attm. There are some model differences
during the middle of the week with respect to a northwest flow
vort max and its interaction with the aforementioned slow-moving
low pressure system, but moisture appears limited across this part
of the country. Even if a vort max does approach the CWA, an
increase in cloud cover seems more likely than precipitation. In
the absence of any large scale air mass exchanges and with a
steady northerly flow component at the surface, temperatures over
the next several days will tend to moderate slowly towards more
seasonable values with day to day variations largely dependent on
the amount of cloud cover. Precip chances increase marginally
towards the end of the week and into the early part of next
weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Band of IFR CIGs will continue to drop south overnight. Assoc -DZ
should also come to an end over the next few hours. Dry NE flow is
expected to push the IFR CIGs south of the terminals early this
mrng leaving a low end VFR CIG deck in place for most of the day.
Model RH indicates the VFR CIGs should clear out drng the late
mrng but based on the existing amount of upstream cloud
cover...think that might be too optimistic...plus there should be a
diurnal component to the clouds as well. Skies should clear out by
Sunday night.

Specifics for KSTL:

-DZ should be coming to an end around 6Z. IFR CIGs are expected to
remain thru the night and slowly raise Sunday mrng becoming VFR by
mid morning as the cloud deck drfts south. Clouds should clear by
tomorrow evng.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 260819
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
319 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Quiet weather is expected today. Temperatures across the southern
two-thirds of the CWA may be initially slow to warm due to
extensive morning cloud cover, but temperatures ought to rise
quickly after the stratus scatters out this afternoon, allowing
highs to reach the lower 60s for most of the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

There is very little to discuss in the extended forecast. The
strong PV anomaly noted on 26/07z water vapor imagery near the
CA/AZ border is forecast to close off as it slowly progresses
eastward over the next few days, likely passing south of the CWA.
It is possible that the extreme southern CWA could be on the
extreme northern fringe of the precip shield, but confidence is
too low to introduce PoPs attm. There are some model differences
during the middle of the week with respect to a northwest flow
vort max and its interaction with the aforementioned slow-moving
low pressure system, but moisture appears limited across this part
of the country. Even if a vort max does approach the CWA, an
increase in cloud cover seems more likely than precipitation. In
the absence of any large scale air mass exchanges and with a
steady northerly flow component at the surface, temperatures over
the next several days will tend to moderate slowly towards more
seasonable values with day to day variations largely dependent on
the amount of cloud cover. Precip chances increase marginally
towards the end of the week and into the early part of next
weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Band of IFR CIGs will continue to drop south overnight. Assoc -DZ
should also come to an end over the next few hours. Dry NE flow is
expected to push the IFR CIGs south of the terminals early this
mrng leaving a low end VFR CIG deck in place for most of the day.
Model RH indicates the VFR CIGs should clear out drng the late
mrng but based on the existing amount of upstream cloud
cover...think that might be too optimistic...plus there should be a
diurnal component to the clouds as well. Skies should clear out by
Sunday night.

Specifics for KSTL:

-DZ should be coming to an end around 6Z. IFR CIGs are expected to
remain thru the night and slowly raise Sunday mrng becoming VFR by
mid morning as the cloud deck drfts south. Clouds should clear by
tomorrow evng.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260439
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1139 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the area on Sunday with
north-northeast low level flow. This flow will lead to continued
southwestward clearing of the stratus while cirrus gradually thins
from north to south as well. Present indications are that there
will be a decent amount of afternoon sunshine and this should
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s, resulting in highs a tad
below average for late April.

Deepening of the northeast U.S. vortex and accompanying
positively tilted upper trof will keep a northerly component to
the flow aloft through Tuesday. This will also maintain
surface high pressure as it builds southward through the MS
Valley. An upper low and trof which evolves in the southwest U.S.
over the next 24 hours will then migrate into the Southern Plains
on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday afternoon-night.
The southern track of this upper system along with dry lower
tropospheric east-northeast flow should keep precipitation at bay
to the south of the region, with predominately high clouds Monday
through early Wednesday.

A tranquil and dry pattern will dominate mid week into early next
weekend. The flow aloft will be rather amplified initially with
the trof axis to our east and surface high pressure maintained
into the later part of the week. By the weekend it appears we
should see ridging aloft move into the Nation`s midsection and a
return to southerly low level flow, bringing above normal temps
well into the 70s and pushing 80 in some locations.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Band of IFR CIGs will continue to drop south overnight. Assoc -DZ
should also come to an end over the next few hours. Dry NE flow is
expected to push the IFR CIGs south of the terminals early this
mrng leaving a low end VFR CIG deck in place for most of the day.
Model RH indicates the VFR CIGs should clear out drng the late
mrng but based on the existing amount of upstream cloud
cover...think that might be too optimistic...plus there should be a
diurnal component to the clouds as well. Skies should clear out by
Sunday night.

Specifics for KSTL:

-DZ should be coming to an end around 6Z. IFR CIGs are expected to
remain thru the night and slowly raise Sunday mrng becoming VFR by
mid morning as the cloud deck drfts south. Clouds should clear by
tomorrow evng.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260439
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1139 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the area on Sunday with
north-northeast low level flow. This flow will lead to continued
southwestward clearing of the stratus while cirrus gradually thins
from north to south as well. Present indications are that there
will be a decent amount of afternoon sunshine and this should
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s, resulting in highs a tad
below average for late April.

Deepening of the northeast U.S. vortex and accompanying
positively tilted upper trof will keep a northerly component to
the flow aloft through Tuesday. This will also maintain
surface high pressure as it builds southward through the MS
Valley. An upper low and trof which evolves in the southwest U.S.
over the next 24 hours will then migrate into the Southern Plains
on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday afternoon-night.
The southern track of this upper system along with dry lower
tropospheric east-northeast flow should keep precipitation at bay
to the south of the region, with predominately high clouds Monday
through early Wednesday.

A tranquil and dry pattern will dominate mid week into early next
weekend. The flow aloft will be rather amplified initially with
the trof axis to our east and surface high pressure maintained
into the later part of the week. By the weekend it appears we
should see ridging aloft move into the Nation`s midsection and a
return to southerly low level flow, bringing above normal temps
well into the 70s and pushing 80 in some locations.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Band of IFR CIGs will continue to drop south overnight. Assoc -DZ
should also come to an end over the next few hours. Dry NE flow is
expected to push the IFR CIGs south of the terminals early this
mrng leaving a low end VFR CIG deck in place for most of the day.
Model RH indicates the VFR CIGs should clear out drng the late
mrng but based on the existing amount of upstream cloud
cover...think that might be too optimistic...plus there should be a
diurnal component to the clouds as well. Skies should clear out by
Sunday night.

Specifics for KSTL:

-DZ should be coming to an end around 6Z. IFR CIGs are expected to
remain thru the night and slowly raise Sunday mrng becoming VFR by
mid morning as the cloud deck drfts south. Clouds should clear by
tomorrow evng.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 260001
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
701 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the area on Sunday with
north-northeast low level flow. This flow will lead to continued
southwestward clearing of the stratus while cirrus gradually thins
from north to south as well. Present indications are that there
will be a decent amount of afternoon sunshine and this should
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s, resulting in highs a tad
below average for late April.

Deepening of the northeast U.S. vortex and accompanying
positively tilted upper trof will keep a northerly component to
the flow aloft through Tuesday. This will also maintain
surface high pressure as it builds southward through the MS
Valley. An upper low and trof which evolves in the southwest U.S.
over the next 24 hours will then migrate into the Southern Plains
on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday afternoon-night.
The southern track of this upper system along with dry lower
tropospheric east-northeast flow should keep precipitation at bay
to the south of the region, with predominately high clouds Monday
through early Wednesday.

A tranquil and dry pattern will dominate mid week into early next
weekend. The flow aloft will be rather amplified initially with
the trof axis to our east and surface high pressure maintained
into the later part of the week. By the weekend it appears we
should see ridging aloft move into the Nation`s midsection and a
return to southerly low level flow, bringing above normal temps
well into the 70s and pushing 80 in some locations.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

There is a substantial band of IFR/MVFR CIGS that stretch from
KS/NE thru MO and IL and points east into KY/OH. Existing IFR CIGs
are expected to last most...if not all night. A dry NE low level
flow in the wake of today`s storm system will help dry the lower
levels out and push the band of IFR/MVFR CIGs south Sunday mrng.
Current indications are that the CIGS should push out of all the
terminals...from N to S...in the 10-15Z time frame. Diurnal
cu/strato cu is expected to dvlp drng the mrng but should thin out
some drng the aftn. VFR conditions are fcst for the aftn at all
sites.

Specifics for KSTL:

Terminals should be socked in with IFR CIGs all night long.
Stratus should eroded from the NE tomorrow mrng 12-15Z with low
end VFR diurnal cu/strato cu filling in behind the clearing. This
too should dsspt by evng leaving a VFR fcst overnight with a N/NE
breeze aob 10kts.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260001
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
701 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the area on Sunday with
north-northeast low level flow. This flow will lead to continued
southwestward clearing of the stratus while cirrus gradually thins
from north to south as well. Present indications are that there
will be a decent amount of afternoon sunshine and this should
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s, resulting in highs a tad
below average for late April.

Deepening of the northeast U.S. vortex and accompanying
positively tilted upper trof will keep a northerly component to
the flow aloft through Tuesday. This will also maintain
surface high pressure as it builds southward through the MS
Valley. An upper low and trof which evolves in the southwest U.S.
over the next 24 hours will then migrate into the Southern Plains
on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday afternoon-night.
The southern track of this upper system along with dry lower
tropospheric east-northeast flow should keep precipitation at bay
to the south of the region, with predominately high clouds Monday
through early Wednesday.

A tranquil and dry pattern will dominate mid week into early next
weekend. The flow aloft will be rather amplified initially with
the trof axis to our east and surface high pressure maintained
into the later part of the week. By the weekend it appears we
should see ridging aloft move into the Nation`s midsection and a
return to southerly low level flow, bringing above normal temps
well into the 70s and pushing 80 in some locations.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

There is a substantial band of IFR/MVFR CIGS that stretch from
KS/NE thru MO and IL and points east into KY/OH. Existing IFR CIGs
are expected to last most...if not all night. A dry NE low level
flow in the wake of today`s storm system will help dry the lower
levels out and push the band of IFR/MVFR CIGs south Sunday mrng.
Current indications are that the CIGS should push out of all the
terminals...from N to S...in the 10-15Z time frame. Diurnal
cu/strato cu is expected to dvlp drng the mrng but should thin out
some drng the aftn. VFR conditions are fcst for the aftn at all
sites.

Specifics for KSTL:

Terminals should be socked in with IFR CIGs all night long.
Stratus should eroded from the NE tomorrow mrng 12-15Z with low
end VFR diurnal cu/strato cu filling in behind the clearing. This
too should dsspt by evng leaving a VFR fcst overnight with a N/NE
breeze aob 10kts.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 252049
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
349 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the area on Sunday with
north-northeast low level flow. This flow will lead to continued
southwestward clearing of the stratus while cirrus gradually thins
from north to south as well. Present indications are that there
will be a decent amount of afternoon sunshine and this should
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s, resulting in highs a tad
below average for late April.

Deepening of the northeast U.S. vortex and accompanying
positively tilted upper trof will keep a northerly component to
the flow aloft through Tuesday. This will also maintain
surface high pressure as it builds southward through the MS
Valley. An upper low and trof which evolves in the southwest U.S.
over the next 24 hours will then migrate into the Southern Plains
on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday afternoon-night.
The southern track of this upper system along with dry lower
tropospheric east-northeast flow should keep precipitation at bay
to the south of the region, with predominately high clouds Monday
through early Wednesday.

A tranquil and dry pattern will dominate mid week into early next
weekend. The flow aloft will be rather amplified initially with
the trof axis to our east and surface high pressure maintained
into the later part of the week. By the weekend it appears we
should see ridging aloft move into the Nation`s midsection and a
return to southerly low level flow, bringing above normal temps
well into the 70s and pushing 80 in some locations.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252049
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
349 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the area on Sunday with
north-northeast low level flow. This flow will lead to continued
southwestward clearing of the stratus while cirrus gradually thins
from north to south as well. Present indications are that there
will be a decent amount of afternoon sunshine and this should
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s, resulting in highs a tad
below average for late April.

Deepening of the northeast U.S. vortex and accompanying
positively tilted upper trof will keep a northerly component to
the flow aloft through Tuesday. This will also maintain
surface high pressure as it builds southward through the MS
Valley. An upper low and trof which evolves in the southwest U.S.
over the next 24 hours will then migrate into the Southern Plains
on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday afternoon-night.
The southern track of this upper system along with dry lower
tropospheric east-northeast flow should keep precipitation at bay
to the south of the region, with predominately high clouds Monday
through early Wednesday.

A tranquil and dry pattern will dominate mid week into early next
weekend. The flow aloft will be rather amplified initially with
the trof axis to our east and surface high pressure maintained
into the later part of the week. By the weekend it appears we
should see ridging aloft move into the Nation`s midsection and a
return to southerly low level flow, bringing above normal temps
well into the 70s and pushing 80 in some locations.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 252033
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Temporarily delayed

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252033
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Temporarily delayed

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 252033
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Temporarily delayed

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252033
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Temporarily delayed

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 251757
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1257 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through this Evening)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Well advertised storm system will bring two rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA over the next 12 hours. The first round is
just now taking shape as warm advection increases ahead of the
shortwave now lifting from the southern Plains into the lower
Missouri River Valley. Surface low pressure depicted by model
guidance the past few days seems to be associated with well defined
MCV on regional radar currently spinning in far southeast Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop from northwest
Missouri to southeast Missouri and lift north through the predawn
hours. Dry slot will push through the southeastern half of the CWA
ahead of the low pressure this morning and early afternoon.  This
will cause the band of warm advection showers and thunderstorms to
steadily march northeast of the CWA. It will also set the stage for
at least some breaks in the cloud cover south of Interstate 70 and
instability to increase this afternoon.

The second round of precipitation today will take shape later this
morning and into the afternoon as the low pressure center traverses
east-southeast across the CWA.  Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure center (MCV) and
additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of and to the
south of the surface low. SPC continues to highlight the likelihood
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly southeast
of the St. Louis Metro.  Latest explicit model guidance depicts
discrete storm development between 2 PM and 4 PM just south of St.
Louis, with this activity exiting the CWA shortly after 7 PM. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with the
supercells this afternoon and early this evening. The threat of
tornadoes is more conditional and will likely hinge on how much
instability can be realized ahead of the low and if the surface
winds can remain backed across this area.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Showers will come to an end from northwest to southeast this
evening and clearing is still expected on Sunday with below normal
temperatures. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged with
temperatures gradually returning to normal by the end of the week
and precipitation chances remaining low.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251757
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1257 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through this Evening)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Well advertised storm system will bring two rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA over the next 12 hours. The first round is
just now taking shape as warm advection increases ahead of the
shortwave now lifting from the southern Plains into the lower
Missouri River Valley. Surface low pressure depicted by model
guidance the past few days seems to be associated with well defined
MCV on regional radar currently spinning in far southeast Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop from northwest
Missouri to southeast Missouri and lift north through the predawn
hours. Dry slot will push through the southeastern half of the CWA
ahead of the low pressure this morning and early afternoon.  This
will cause the band of warm advection showers and thunderstorms to
steadily march northeast of the CWA. It will also set the stage for
at least some breaks in the cloud cover south of Interstate 70 and
instability to increase this afternoon.

The second round of precipitation today will take shape later this
morning and into the afternoon as the low pressure center traverses
east-southeast across the CWA.  Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure center (MCV) and
additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of and to the
south of the surface low. SPC continues to highlight the likelihood
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly southeast
of the St. Louis Metro.  Latest explicit model guidance depicts
discrete storm development between 2 PM and 4 PM just south of St.
Louis, with this activity exiting the CWA shortly after 7 PM. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with the
supercells this afternoon and early this evening. The threat of
tornadoes is more conditional and will likely hinge on how much
instability can be realized ahead of the low and if the surface
winds can remain backed across this area.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Showers will come to an end from northwest to southeast this
evening and clearing is still expected on Sunday with below normal
temperatures. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged with
temperatures gradually returning to normal by the end of the week
and precipitation chances remaining low.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 251213
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
713 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through this Evening)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Well advertised storm system will bring two rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA over the next 12 hours. The first round is
just now taking shape as warm advection increases ahead of the
shortwave now lifting from the southern Plains into the lower
Missouri River Valley. Surface low pressure depicted by model
guidance the past few days seems to be associated with well defined
MCV on regional radar currently spinning in far southeast Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop from northwest
Missouri to southeast Missouri and lift north through the predawn
hours. Dry slot will push through the southeastern half of the CWA
ahead of the low pressure this morning and early afternoon.  This
will cause the band of warm advection showers and thunderstorms to
steadily march northeast of the CWA. It will also set the stage for
at least some breaks in the cloud cover south of Interstate 70 and
instability to increase this afternoon.

The second round of precipitation today will take shape later this
morning and into the afternoon as the low pressure center traverses
east-southeast across the CWA.  Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure center (MCV) and
additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of and to the
south of the surface low. SPC continues to highlight the likelihood
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly southeast
of the St. Louis Metro.  Latest explicit model guidance depicts
discrete storm development between 2 PM and 4 PM just south of St.
Louis, with this activity exiting the CWA shortly after 7 PM. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with the
supercells this afternoon and early this evening. The threat of
tornadoes is more conditional and will likely hinge on how much
instability can be realized ahead of the low and if the surface
winds can remain backed across this area.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Showers will come to an end from northwest to southeast this
evening and clearing is still expected on Sunday with below normal
temperatures. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged with
temperatures gradually returning to normal by the end of the week
and precipitation chances remaining low.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Aviation overview: A slow-moving low pressure system will move
east-southeast across the region today. Periods of SHRA/TSRA are
expected at all TAF sites at different times of the day depending
on each terminal`s location relative to the track of the low
pressure system. A trailing cold front will then move through the
region tonight behind the departing low pressure system.

Specifics for KCOU: Initially IFR ceilings at TAF issuance should
improve to at least MVFR for several hours before additional
SHRA/TSRA develop during the afternoon. Cigs should eventually
fall back to IFR tonight on the cold side of the cold front.
Initially southeast winds will veer and become southerly to
southwesterly today, then become northeasterly early tonight
behind the cold front.

Specifics for KUIN: Based on upstream trends, prolonged periods
of SHRA/TSRA are expected at KUIN since it will be located north
of the surface low track. One cluster of thunderstorms was located
just upstream from KUIN at TAF issuance, and it should reach the
terminal by 13z. Initial thoughts are that KUIN should be too far
north to be affected by much in the way of afternoon thunderstorm
development, although a few embedded thunderstorms may occur. If
any clearing occurs at KUIN this afternoon, then the resulting
instability will aid thunderstorm development. Initially
southeasterly winds will back and become easterly to northeasterly
today, then remain northeasterly through the end of the TAF
period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: The southern end of a SHRA/TSRA
cluster was approaching St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF
issuance. After the morning convection tapers off, there should be
a dry period lasting several hours before the next round of
thunderstorms develops during the afternoon. After some
improvement during the late morning or early afternoon, cigs are
expected to fall back to MVFR tonight on the cold side of the
cold front. Initially southeasterly winds will veer and become
southerly to southwesterly today, then turn northeasterly early
tonight behind the cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 251213
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
713 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through this Evening)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Well advertised storm system will bring two rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA over the next 12 hours. The first round is
just now taking shape as warm advection increases ahead of the
shortwave now lifting from the southern Plains into the lower
Missouri River Valley. Surface low pressure depicted by model
guidance the past few days seems to be associated with well defined
MCV on regional radar currently spinning in far southeast Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop from northwest
Missouri to southeast Missouri and lift north through the predawn
hours. Dry slot will push through the southeastern half of the CWA
ahead of the low pressure this morning and early afternoon.  This
will cause the band of warm advection showers and thunderstorms to
steadily march northeast of the CWA. It will also set the stage for
at least some breaks in the cloud cover south of Interstate 70 and
instability to increase this afternoon.

The second round of precipitation today will take shape later this
morning and into the afternoon as the low pressure center traverses
east-southeast across the CWA.  Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure center (MCV) and
additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of and to the
south of the surface low. SPC continues to highlight the likelihood
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly southeast
of the St. Louis Metro.  Latest explicit model guidance depicts
discrete storm development between 2 PM and 4 PM just south of St.
Louis, with this activity exiting the CWA shortly after 7 PM. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with the
supercells this afternoon and early this evening. The threat of
tornadoes is more conditional and will likely hinge on how much
instability can be realized ahead of the low and if the surface
winds can remain backed across this area.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Showers will come to an end from northwest to southeast this
evening and clearing is still expected on Sunday with below normal
temperatures. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged with
temperatures gradually returning to normal by the end of the week
and precipitation chances remaining low.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Aviation overview: A slow-moving low pressure system will move
east-southeast across the region today. Periods of SHRA/TSRA are
expected at all TAF sites at different times of the day depending
on each terminal`s location relative to the track of the low
pressure system. A trailing cold front will then move through the
region tonight behind the departing low pressure system.

Specifics for KCOU: Initially IFR ceilings at TAF issuance should
improve to at least MVFR for several hours before additional
SHRA/TSRA develop during the afternoon. Cigs should eventually
fall back to IFR tonight on the cold side of the cold front.
Initially southeast winds will veer and become southerly to
southwesterly today, then become northeasterly early tonight
behind the cold front.

Specifics for KUIN: Based on upstream trends, prolonged periods
of SHRA/TSRA are expected at KUIN since it will be located north
of the surface low track. One cluster of thunderstorms was located
just upstream from KUIN at TAF issuance, and it should reach the
terminal by 13z. Initial thoughts are that KUIN should be too far
north to be affected by much in the way of afternoon thunderstorm
development, although a few embedded thunderstorms may occur. If
any clearing occurs at KUIN this afternoon, then the resulting
instability will aid thunderstorm development. Initially
southeasterly winds will back and become easterly to northeasterly
today, then remain northeasterly through the end of the TAF
period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: The southern end of a SHRA/TSRA
cluster was approaching St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF
issuance. After the morning convection tapers off, there should be
a dry period lasting several hours before the next round of
thunderstorms develops during the afternoon. After some
improvement during the late morning or early afternoon, cigs are
expected to fall back to MVFR tonight on the cold side of the
cold front. Initially southeasterly winds will veer and become
southerly to southwesterly today, then turn northeasterly early
tonight behind the cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251213
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
713 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through this Evening)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Well advertised storm system will bring two rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA over the next 12 hours. The first round is
just now taking shape as warm advection increases ahead of the
shortwave now lifting from the southern Plains into the lower
Missouri River Valley. Surface low pressure depicted by model
guidance the past few days seems to be associated with well defined
MCV on regional radar currently spinning in far southeast Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop from northwest
Missouri to southeast Missouri and lift north through the predawn
hours. Dry slot will push through the southeastern half of the CWA
ahead of the low pressure this morning and early afternoon.  This
will cause the band of warm advection showers and thunderstorms to
steadily march northeast of the CWA. It will also set the stage for
at least some breaks in the cloud cover south of Interstate 70 and
instability to increase this afternoon.

The second round of precipitation today will take shape later this
morning and into the afternoon as the low pressure center traverses
east-southeast across the CWA.  Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure center (MCV) and
additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of and to the
south of the surface low. SPC continues to highlight the likelihood
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly southeast
of the St. Louis Metro.  Latest explicit model guidance depicts
discrete storm development between 2 PM and 4 PM just south of St.
Louis, with this activity exiting the CWA shortly after 7 PM. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with the
supercells this afternoon and early this evening. The threat of
tornadoes is more conditional and will likely hinge on how much
instability can be realized ahead of the low and if the surface
winds can remain backed across this area.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Showers will come to an end from northwest to southeast this
evening and clearing is still expected on Sunday with below normal
temperatures. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged with
temperatures gradually returning to normal by the end of the week
and precipitation chances remaining low.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Aviation overview: A slow-moving low pressure system will move
east-southeast across the region today. Periods of SHRA/TSRA are
expected at all TAF sites at different times of the day depending
on each terminal`s location relative to the track of the low
pressure system. A trailing cold front will then move through the
region tonight behind the departing low pressure system.

Specifics for KCOU: Initially IFR ceilings at TAF issuance should
improve to at least MVFR for several hours before additional
SHRA/TSRA develop during the afternoon. Cigs should eventually
fall back to IFR tonight on the cold side of the cold front.
Initially southeast winds will veer and become southerly to
southwesterly today, then become northeasterly early tonight
behind the cold front.

Specifics for KUIN: Based on upstream trends, prolonged periods
of SHRA/TSRA are expected at KUIN since it will be located north
of the surface low track. One cluster of thunderstorms was located
just upstream from KUIN at TAF issuance, and it should reach the
terminal by 13z. Initial thoughts are that KUIN should be too far
north to be affected by much in the way of afternoon thunderstorm
development, although a few embedded thunderstorms may occur. If
any clearing occurs at KUIN this afternoon, then the resulting
instability will aid thunderstorm development. Initially
southeasterly winds will back and become easterly to northeasterly
today, then remain northeasterly through the end of the TAF
period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: The southern end of a SHRA/TSRA
cluster was approaching St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF
issuance. After the morning convection tapers off, there should be
a dry period lasting several hours before the next round of
thunderstorms develops during the afternoon. After some
improvement during the late morning or early afternoon, cigs are
expected to fall back to MVFR tonight on the cold side of the
cold front. Initially southeasterly winds will veer and become
southerly to southwesterly today, then turn northeasterly early
tonight behind the cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 251213
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
713 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through this Evening)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Well advertised storm system will bring two rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA over the next 12 hours. The first round is
just now taking shape as warm advection increases ahead of the
shortwave now lifting from the southern Plains into the lower
Missouri River Valley. Surface low pressure depicted by model
guidance the past few days seems to be associated with well defined
MCV on regional radar currently spinning in far southeast Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop from northwest
Missouri to southeast Missouri and lift north through the predawn
hours. Dry slot will push through the southeastern half of the CWA
ahead of the low pressure this morning and early afternoon.  This
will cause the band of warm advection showers and thunderstorms to
steadily march northeast of the CWA. It will also set the stage for
at least some breaks in the cloud cover south of Interstate 70 and
instability to increase this afternoon.

The second round of precipitation today will take shape later this
morning and into the afternoon as the low pressure center traverses
east-southeast across the CWA.  Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure center (MCV) and
additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of and to the
south of the surface low. SPC continues to highlight the likelihood
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly southeast
of the St. Louis Metro.  Latest explicit model guidance depicts
discrete storm development between 2 PM and 4 PM just south of St.
Louis, with this activity exiting the CWA shortly after 7 PM. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with the
supercells this afternoon and early this evening. The threat of
tornadoes is more conditional and will likely hinge on how much
instability can be realized ahead of the low and if the surface
winds can remain backed across this area.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Showers will come to an end from northwest to southeast this
evening and clearing is still expected on Sunday with below normal
temperatures. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged with
temperatures gradually returning to normal by the end of the week
and precipitation chances remaining low.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Aviation overview: A slow-moving low pressure system will move
east-southeast across the region today. Periods of SHRA/TSRA are
expected at all TAF sites at different times of the day depending
on each terminal`s location relative to the track of the low
pressure system. A trailing cold front will then move through the
region tonight behind the departing low pressure system.

Specifics for KCOU: Initially IFR ceilings at TAF issuance should
improve to at least MVFR for several hours before additional
SHRA/TSRA develop during the afternoon. Cigs should eventually
fall back to IFR tonight on the cold side of the cold front.
Initially southeast winds will veer and become southerly to
southwesterly today, then become northeasterly early tonight
behind the cold front.

Specifics for KUIN: Based on upstream trends, prolonged periods
of SHRA/TSRA are expected at KUIN since it will be located north
of the surface low track. One cluster of thunderstorms was located
just upstream from KUIN at TAF issuance, and it should reach the
terminal by 13z. Initial thoughts are that KUIN should be too far
north to be affected by much in the way of afternoon thunderstorm
development, although a few embedded thunderstorms may occur. If
any clearing occurs at KUIN this afternoon, then the resulting
instability will aid thunderstorm development. Initially
southeasterly winds will back and become easterly to northeasterly
today, then remain northeasterly through the end of the TAF
period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: The southern end of a SHRA/TSRA
cluster was approaching St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF
issuance. After the morning convection tapers off, there should be
a dry period lasting several hours before the next round of
thunderstorms develops during the afternoon. After some
improvement during the late morning or early afternoon, cigs are
expected to fall back to MVFR tonight on the cold side of the
cold front. Initially southeasterly winds will veer and become
southerly to southwesterly today, then turn northeasterly early
tonight behind the cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250741
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
241 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through this Evening)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Well advertised storm system will bring two rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA over the next 12 hours. The first round is
just now taking shape as warm advection increases ahead of the
shortwave now lifting from the southern Plains into the lower
Missouri River Valley. Surface low pressure depticted by model
guidance the past few days seems to be associated with well defined
MCV on regional radar currently spinning in far southeast Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop from northwest
Missouri to southeast Missouri and lift north through the predawn
hours. Dry slot will push through the southeastern half of the CWA
ahead of the low pressure this morning and early afternoon.  This
will cause the band of warm advection showers and thunderstorms to
steadily march northeast of the CWA. It will also set the stage for
at least some breaks in the cloud cover south of Interstate 70 and
instability to increase this afternoon.

The second round of precipitation today will take shape later this
morning and into the afternoon as the low pressure center traverses
east-southeast across the CWA.  Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure center (MCV) and
additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of and to the
south of the surface low. SPC continues to highlight the likelihood
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly southeast
of the St. Louis Metro.  Latest explicit model guidance depicts
descrete storm development between 2 PM and 4 PM just south of St.
Louis, with this activity exiting the CWA shortly after 7 PM. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with the
supercells this afternoon and early this evening. The threat of
tornadoes is more conditional and will likely hinge on how much
instability can be realized ahead of the low and if the surface
winds can remain backed across this area.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Showers will come to an end from northwest to southeast this
evening and clearing is still expected on Sunday with below normal
temperatures. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged with
temperatures gradually returning to normal by the end of the week
and precipitation chances remaining low.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

MVFR cigs are in the process of overspreading the CWA attm...and
latest MET and MAV MOS still strongly suggest that this
deterioration will continue into IFR cigs during the predawn
hours as the persistent low level WAA increases the low level
moisture in the region. A few hit and miss showers have formed
over NE MO the last couple of hours, with the anticipation that
there will be a general increase in coverage of showers...as well
as thunderstorms...during the predawn hours as forcing via low
level jet and upper level low ramp up the vertical motion across
the Mississippi Valley. 00z guidance is a bit further south with
track of low, which would keep UIN in IFR conditions and precip throughout
the day, with only limited improvement at KCOU and the STL metro
area. Still appears that there will be a narrow window for
redevelopment of thunderstorms in the STL area during the early
afternoon, and have continued to highlight with VCTS attm.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceiings expected to drop below 1000 feet
during the predawn hours, with showers and a few thunderstorms
developing by around 09z. Anticipate that the early morning
convection will advect out of the region during the early morning,
with ceilings slowly improving to MVFR as surface low works into
the area from mid MO. Have maintained a mention of some
thunderstorm redevelopment during the early afternoon in the form
of VCTS...hoping later shifts will be able to refine the location
and intensity of this redevelopment.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     70  47  62  41 /  80  70   0   0
Quincy          58  40  60  38 /  80  40   0   0
Columbia        68  45  62  39 /  70  30   0   5
Jefferson City  71  46  62  41 /  70  30   5   5
Salem           65  46  61  39 /  80  70   0   0
Farmington      75  48  61  39 /  60  40   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 250741
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
241 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through this Evening)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Well advertised storm system will bring two rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA over the next 12 hours. The first round is
just now taking shape as warm advection increases ahead of the
shortwave now lifting from the southern Plains into the lower
Missouri River Valley. Surface low pressure depticted by model
guidance the past few days seems to be associated with well defined
MCV on regional radar currently spinning in far southeast Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop from northwest
Missouri to southeast Missouri and lift north through the predawn
hours. Dry slot will push through the southeastern half of the CWA
ahead of the low pressure this morning and early afternoon.  This
will cause the band of warm advection showers and thunderstorms to
steadily march northeast of the CWA. It will also set the stage for
at least some breaks in the cloud cover south of Interstate 70 and
instability to increase this afternoon.

The second round of precipitation today will take shape later this
morning and into the afternoon as the low pressure center traverses
east-southeast across the CWA.  Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure center (MCV) and
additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of and to the
south of the surface low. SPC continues to highlight the likelihood
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly southeast
of the St. Louis Metro.  Latest explicit model guidance depicts
descrete storm development between 2 PM and 4 PM just south of St.
Louis, with this activity exiting the CWA shortly after 7 PM. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with the
supercells this afternoon and early this evening. The threat of
tornadoes is more conditional and will likely hinge on how much
instability can be realized ahead of the low and if the surface
winds can remain backed across this area.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Showers will come to an end from northwest to southeast this
evening and clearing is still expected on Sunday with below normal
temperatures. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged with
temperatures gradually returning to normal by the end of the week
and precipitation chances remaining low.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

MVFR cigs are in the process of overspreading the CWA attm...and
latest MET and MAV MOS still strongly suggest that this
deterioration will continue into IFR cigs during the predawn
hours as the persistent low level WAA increases the low level
moisture in the region. A few hit and miss showers have formed
over NE MO the last couple of hours, with the anticipation that
there will be a general increase in coverage of showers...as well
as thunderstorms...during the predawn hours as forcing via low
level jet and upper level low ramp up the vertical motion across
the Mississippi Valley. 00z guidance is a bit further south with
track of low, which would keep UIN in IFR conditions and precip throughout
the day, with only limited improvement at KCOU and the STL metro
area. Still appears that there will be a narrow window for
redevelopment of thunderstorms in the STL area during the early
afternoon, and have continued to highlight with VCTS attm.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceiings expected to drop below 1000 feet
during the predawn hours, with showers and a few thunderstorms
developing by around 09z. Anticipate that the early morning
convection will advect out of the region during the early morning,
with ceilings slowly improving to MVFR as surface low works into
the area from mid MO. Have maintained a mention of some
thunderstorm redevelopment during the early afternoon in the form
of VCTS...hoping later shifts will be able to refine the location
and intensity of this redevelopment.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     70  47  62  41 /  80  70   0   0
Quincy          58  40  60  38 /  80  40   0   0
Columbia        68  45  62  39 /  70  30   0   5
Jefferson City  71  46  62  41 /  70  30   5   5
Salem           65  46  61  39 /  80  70   0   0
Farmington      75  48  61  39 /  60  40   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250448
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1148 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Clouds and mild temperatures blanket the area late this afternoon
and we`ve seen very little precipitation thus far. The main forecast
issue tonight will be the precipitation chance/trends. Present
indications are two main areas to watch. The first is an area of
origination in south central and southeast MO this evening. The
guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a perturbation in
the southwest flow aloft will track northeast out of OK across the
aforementioned region. The latest water vapor imagery suggests the
presence of 2 upstream perturbations. This disturbance combined with
with strong moisture convergence/lift via an intensifying and
veering LLJ should result in an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the southeast third of the CWA. The second region of interest
is much further west. The short wave trof currently getting ready to
move into the central and southern High Plains combined with lift
via a secondary branch of the southerly LLJ should result in the
development of strong-severe thunderstorms along and east of the
dryline in KS over the next 2-4 hours. This initially scattered
convection should grow upscale into a convective system across
eastern KS this evening which will migrate eastward ahead of the
advancing surface low, and impact areas along/north of I-70
overnight into Saturday morning.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

By 12z Saturday morning, strengthening surface low will be over
northwestern MO. Will see overnight activity sliding north and east
of forecast area as dry slot wraps around low with a brief break in
activity, mainly for St. Louis metro and areas to the south and east
through midday. Then for afternoon hours, possibility of severe
weather and location of it will depend on location of surface low,
frontal boundary and how much the atmosphere recovers from morning
activity. Reintroduced thunderstorms for all locations as there is
enough instability, at the surface and aloft and decent low level
jet for storms to develop even north of track of surface low. For
now best chances of severe weather will be over east central and
southeast Missouri as well as southern Illinois as surface low
slides east southeast Saturday afternoon. Models showing CAPE
between 1000-2500 J/kg, decent lapse rates and shear, with supercell
development possible and main severe threats being large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. SPC has placed this area in
a slight risk with an area of enhanced risk southeast of STL metro
area. Highs will vary from the low 60s far north to the mid 70s far
south.

System to exit region Saturday night with lingering showers tapering
off from north to south. Cooler air to slowly filter in with lows in
the low 40s far north to the low 50s far south.

Below normal temps and gradual clearing expected on Sunday as
surface ridge builds in. Beyond that, temperatures to slowly
moderate through the work week, with a shortwave sliding through
region on Wednesday with some scattered showers possible.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

MVFR cigs are in the process of overspreading the CWA attm...and
latest MET and MAV MOS still strongly suggest that this
deterioration will continue into IFR cigs during the predawn
hours as the persistent low level WAA increases the low level
moisture in the region. A few hit and miss showers have formed
over NE MO the last couple of hours, with the anticipation that
there will be a general increase in coverage of showers...as well
as thunderstorms...during the predawn hours as forcing via low
level jet and upper level low ramp up the vertical motion across
the Mississippi Valley. 00z guidance is a bit further south with
track of low, which would keep UIN in IFR conditions and precip throughout
the day, with only limited improvement at KCOU and the STL metro
area. Still appears that there will be a narrow window for
redevelopment of thunderstorms in the STL area during the early
afternoon, and have continued to highlight with VCTS attm.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceiings expected to drop below 1000 feet
during the predawn hours, with showers and a few thunderstorms
developing by around 09z. Anticipate that the early morning
convection will advect out of the region during the early morning,
with ceilings slowly improving to MVFR as surface low works into
the area from mid MO. Have maintained a mention of some
thunderstorm redevelopment during the early afternoon in the form
of VCTS...hoping later shifts will be able to refine the location
and intensity of this redevelopment.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250448
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1148 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Clouds and mild temperatures blanket the area late this afternoon
and we`ve seen very little precipitation thus far. The main forecast
issue tonight will be the precipitation chance/trends. Present
indications are two main areas to watch. The first is an area of
origination in south central and southeast MO this evening. The
guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a perturbation in
the southwest flow aloft will track northeast out of OK across the
aforementioned region. The latest water vapor imagery suggests the
presence of 2 upstream perturbations. This disturbance combined with
with strong moisture convergence/lift via an intensifying and
veering LLJ should result in an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the southeast third of the CWA. The second region of interest
is much further west. The short wave trof currently getting ready to
move into the central and southern High Plains combined with lift
via a secondary branch of the southerly LLJ should result in the
development of strong-severe thunderstorms along and east of the
dryline in KS over the next 2-4 hours. This initially scattered
convection should grow upscale into a convective system across
eastern KS this evening which will migrate eastward ahead of the
advancing surface low, and impact areas along/north of I-70
overnight into Saturday morning.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

By 12z Saturday morning, strengthening surface low will be over
northwestern MO. Will see overnight activity sliding north and east
of forecast area as dry slot wraps around low with a brief break in
activity, mainly for St. Louis metro and areas to the south and east
through midday. Then for afternoon hours, possibility of severe
weather and location of it will depend on location of surface low,
frontal boundary and how much the atmosphere recovers from morning
activity. Reintroduced thunderstorms for all locations as there is
enough instability, at the surface and aloft and decent low level
jet for storms to develop even north of track of surface low. For
now best chances of severe weather will be over east central and
southeast Missouri as well as southern Illinois as surface low
slides east southeast Saturday afternoon. Models showing CAPE
between 1000-2500 J/kg, decent lapse rates and shear, with supercell
development possible and main severe threats being large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. SPC has placed this area in
a slight risk with an area of enhanced risk southeast of STL metro
area. Highs will vary from the low 60s far north to the mid 70s far
south.

System to exit region Saturday night with lingering showers tapering
off from north to south. Cooler air to slowly filter in with lows in
the low 40s far north to the low 50s far south.

Below normal temps and gradual clearing expected on Sunday as
surface ridge builds in. Beyond that, temperatures to slowly
moderate through the work week, with a shortwave sliding through
region on Wednesday with some scattered showers possible.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

MVFR cigs are in the process of overspreading the CWA attm...and
latest MET and MAV MOS still strongly suggest that this
deterioration will continue into IFR cigs during the predawn
hours as the persistent low level WAA increases the low level
moisture in the region. A few hit and miss showers have formed
over NE MO the last couple of hours, with the anticipation that
there will be a general increase in coverage of showers...as well
as thunderstorms...during the predawn hours as forcing via low
level jet and upper level low ramp up the vertical motion across
the Mississippi Valley. 00z guidance is a bit further south with
track of low, which would keep UIN in IFR conditions and precip throughout
the day, with only limited improvement at KCOU and the STL metro
area. Still appears that there will be a narrow window for
redevelopment of thunderstorms in the STL area during the early
afternoon, and have continued to highlight with VCTS attm.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceiings expected to drop below 1000 feet
during the predawn hours, with showers and a few thunderstorms
developing by around 09z. Anticipate that the early morning
convection will advect out of the region during the early morning,
with ceilings slowly improving to MVFR as surface low works into
the area from mid MO. Have maintained a mention of some
thunderstorm redevelopment during the early afternoon in the form
of VCTS...hoping later shifts will be able to refine the location
and intensity of this redevelopment.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 242359
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
659 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Clouds and mild temperatures blanket the area late this afternoon
and we`ve seen very little precipitation thus far. The main forecast
issue tonight will be the precipitation chance/trends. Present
indications are two main areas to watch. The first is an area of
origination in south central and southeast MO this evening. The
guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a perturbation in
the southwest flow aloft will track northeast out of OK across the
aforementioned region. The latest water vapor imagery suggests the
presence of 2 upstream perturbations. This disturbance combined with
with strong moisture convergence/lift via an intensifying and
veering LLJ should result in an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the southeast third of the CWA. The second region of interest
is much further west. The short wave trof currently getting ready to
move into the central and southern High Plains combined with lift
via a secondary branch of the southerly LLJ should result in the
development of strong-severe thunderstorms along and east of the
dryline in KS over the next 2-4 hours. This initially scattered
convection should grow upscale into a convective system across
eastern KS this evening which will migrate eastward ahead of the
advancing surface low, and impact areas along/north of I-70
overnight into Saturday morning.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

By 12z Saturday morning, strengthening surface low will be over
northwestern MO. Will see overnight activity sliding north and east
of forecast area as dry slot wraps around low with a brief break in
activity, mainly for St. Louis metro and areas to the south and east
through midday. Then for afternoon hours, possibility of severe
weather and location of it will depend on location of surface low,
frontal boundary and how much the atmosphere recovers from morning
activity. Reintroduced thunderstorms for all locations as there is
enough instability, at the surface and aloft and decent low level
jet for storms to develop even north of track of surface low. For
now best chances of severe weather will be over east central and
southeast Missouri as well as southern Illinois as surface low
slides east southeast Saturday afternoon. Models showing CAPE
between 1000-2500 J/kg, decent lapse rates and shear, with supercell
development possible and main severe threats being large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. SPC has placed this area in
a slight risk with an area of enhanced risk southeast of STL metro
area. Highs will vary from the low 60s far north to the mid 70s far
south.

System to exit region Saturday night with lingering showers tapering
off from north to south. Cooler air to slowly filter in with lows in
the low 40s far north to the low 50s far south.

Below normal temps and gradual clearing expected on Sunday as
surface ridge builds in. Beyond that, temperatures to slowly
moderate through the work week, with a shortwave sliding through
region on Wednesday with some scattered showers possible.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Tough aviation forecast this evening, but in general we should
see a deterioration of ceilings with the persistent WAA
transporting deep low level moisture into the region. Timing and
ultimately how low ceilings will go is still a bit of a question
mark, but heading towards IFR conditions seems appropriate given
the moisture progged into the area. Bigger question mark is
when/were convection will form over the region. There seems to be
some consensus in the explicit model solutions that there will be
a split in the precip early in the period, with activity over AR
primarily moving east while increasing convection over KS
eventually develops into NW MO. However, during 06-10z time frame
all of the solutions are suggesting fairly strong WAA/isentropic
ascent focused over the mid-Mississippi Valley that should mean
showers and a few thunderstorms for most of our TAF sites. For the
KCOU and STL metro TAFS, expect morning stratus to lift and break
up a bit...and take on a more warm sector/cumuliform look before
the next round of convection fires along the cold front/dry line
in the early afternoon. At this point, have simply used a VCTS to
highlight this threat, and will leave the details to later
forecasts. However, expect KUIN to remain in IFR cigs throughout
the day as model consensus suggests the surface low passes near
or just to the south of this TAF site.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect deteriorating ceilings throughout the
evening, with IFR ceilings developing after 06z as showers and
thunderstorms develop over the region. This precip is expected to
lift out early in the morning, with ST breaking up a bit and taking
on a more warm sector look of a deep CU field by late morning.
There should be another threat of convection around or shortly
after midday as cold front/dry line sweep across the area, and
have used VCTS to highlight this threat attm.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 242359
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
659 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Clouds and mild temperatures blanket the area late this afternoon
and we`ve seen very little precipitation thus far. The main forecast
issue tonight will be the precipitation chance/trends. Present
indications are two main areas to watch. The first is an area of
origination in south central and southeast MO this evening. The
guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a perturbation in
the southwest flow aloft will track northeast out of OK across the
aforementioned region. The latest water vapor imagery suggests the
presence of 2 upstream perturbations. This disturbance combined with
with strong moisture convergence/lift via an intensifying and
veering LLJ should result in an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the southeast third of the CWA. The second region of interest
is much further west. The short wave trof currently getting ready to
move into the central and southern High Plains combined with lift
via a secondary branch of the southerly LLJ should result in the
development of strong-severe thunderstorms along and east of the
dryline in KS over the next 2-4 hours. This initially scattered
convection should grow upscale into a convective system across
eastern KS this evening which will migrate eastward ahead of the
advancing surface low, and impact areas along/north of I-70
overnight into Saturday morning.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

By 12z Saturday morning, strengthening surface low will be over
northwestern MO. Will see overnight activity sliding north and east
of forecast area as dry slot wraps around low with a brief break in
activity, mainly for St. Louis metro and areas to the south and east
through midday. Then for afternoon hours, possibility of severe
weather and location of it will depend on location of surface low,
frontal boundary and how much the atmosphere recovers from morning
activity. Reintroduced thunderstorms for all locations as there is
enough instability, at the surface and aloft and decent low level
jet for storms to develop even north of track of surface low. For
now best chances of severe weather will be over east central and
southeast Missouri as well as southern Illinois as surface low
slides east southeast Saturday afternoon. Models showing CAPE
between 1000-2500 J/kg, decent lapse rates and shear, with supercell
development possible and main severe threats being large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. SPC has placed this area in
a slight risk with an area of enhanced risk southeast of STL metro
area. Highs will vary from the low 60s far north to the mid 70s far
south.

System to exit region Saturday night with lingering showers tapering
off from north to south. Cooler air to slowly filter in with lows in
the low 40s far north to the low 50s far south.

Below normal temps and gradual clearing expected on Sunday as
surface ridge builds in. Beyond that, temperatures to slowly
moderate through the work week, with a shortwave sliding through
region on Wednesday with some scattered showers possible.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Tough aviation forecast this evening, but in general we should
see a deterioration of ceilings with the persistent WAA
transporting deep low level moisture into the region. Timing and
ultimately how low ceilings will go is still a bit of a question
mark, but heading towards IFR conditions seems appropriate given
the moisture progged into the area. Bigger question mark is
when/were convection will form over the region. There seems to be
some consensus in the explicit model solutions that there will be
a split in the precip early in the period, with activity over AR
primarily moving east while increasing convection over KS
eventually develops into NW MO. However, during 06-10z time frame
all of the solutions are suggesting fairly strong WAA/isentropic
ascent focused over the mid-Mississippi Valley that should mean
showers and a few thunderstorms for most of our TAF sites. For the
KCOU and STL metro TAFS, expect morning stratus to lift and break
up a bit...and take on a more warm sector/cumuliform look before
the next round of convection fires along the cold front/dry line
in the early afternoon. At this point, have simply used a VCTS to
highlight this threat, and will leave the details to later
forecasts. However, expect KUIN to remain in IFR cigs throughout
the day as model consensus suggests the surface low passes near
or just to the south of this TAF site.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect deteriorating ceilings throughout the
evening, with IFR ceilings developing after 06z as showers and
thunderstorms develop over the region. This precip is expected to
lift out early in the morning, with ST breaking up a bit and taking
on a more warm sector look of a deep CU field by late morning.
There should be another threat of convection around or shortly
after midday as cold front/dry line sweep across the area, and
have used VCTS to highlight this threat attm.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242359
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
659 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Clouds and mild temperatures blanket the area late this afternoon
and we`ve seen very little precipitation thus far. The main forecast
issue tonight will be the precipitation chance/trends. Present
indications are two main areas to watch. The first is an area of
origination in south central and southeast MO this evening. The
guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a perturbation in
the southwest flow aloft will track northeast out of OK across the
aforementioned region. The latest water vapor imagery suggests the
presence of 2 upstream perturbations. This disturbance combined with
with strong moisture convergence/lift via an intensifying and
veering LLJ should result in an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the southeast third of the CWA. The second region of interest
is much further west. The short wave trof currently getting ready to
move into the central and southern High Plains combined with lift
via a secondary branch of the southerly LLJ should result in the
development of strong-severe thunderstorms along and east of the
dryline in KS over the next 2-4 hours. This initially scattered
convection should grow upscale into a convective system across
eastern KS this evening which will migrate eastward ahead of the
advancing surface low, and impact areas along/north of I-70
overnight into Saturday morning.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

By 12z Saturday morning, strengthening surface low will be over
northwestern MO. Will see overnight activity sliding north and east
of forecast area as dry slot wraps around low with a brief break in
activity, mainly for St. Louis metro and areas to the south and east
through midday. Then for afternoon hours, possibility of severe
weather and location of it will depend on location of surface low,
frontal boundary and how much the atmosphere recovers from morning
activity. Reintroduced thunderstorms for all locations as there is
enough instability, at the surface and aloft and decent low level
jet for storms to develop even north of track of surface low. For
now best chances of severe weather will be over east central and
southeast Missouri as well as southern Illinois as surface low
slides east southeast Saturday afternoon. Models showing CAPE
between 1000-2500 J/kg, decent lapse rates and shear, with supercell
development possible and main severe threats being large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. SPC has placed this area in
a slight risk with an area of enhanced risk southeast of STL metro
area. Highs will vary from the low 60s far north to the mid 70s far
south.

System to exit region Saturday night with lingering showers tapering
off from north to south. Cooler air to slowly filter in with lows in
the low 40s far north to the low 50s far south.

Below normal temps and gradual clearing expected on Sunday as
surface ridge builds in. Beyond that, temperatures to slowly
moderate through the work week, with a shortwave sliding through
region on Wednesday with some scattered showers possible.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Tough aviation forecast this evening, but in general we should
see a deterioration of ceilings with the persistent WAA
transporting deep low level moisture into the region. Timing and
ultimately how low ceilings will go is still a bit of a question
mark, but heading towards IFR conditions seems appropriate given
the moisture progged into the area. Bigger question mark is
when/were convection will form over the region. There seems to be
some consensus in the explicit model solutions that there will be
a split in the precip early in the period, with activity over AR
primarily moving east while increasing convection over KS
eventually develops into NW MO. However, during 06-10z time frame
all of the solutions are suggesting fairly strong WAA/isentropic
ascent focused over the mid-Mississippi Valley that should mean
showers and a few thunderstorms for most of our TAF sites. For the
KCOU and STL metro TAFS, expect morning stratus to lift and break
up a bit...and take on a more warm sector/cumuliform look before
the next round of convection fires along the cold front/dry line
in the early afternoon. At this point, have simply used a VCTS to
highlight this threat, and will leave the details to later
forecasts. However, expect KUIN to remain in IFR cigs throughout
the day as model consensus suggests the surface low passes near
or just to the south of this TAF site.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect deteriorating ceilings throughout the
evening, with IFR ceilings developing after 06z as showers and
thunderstorms develop over the region. This precip is expected to
lift out early in the morning, with ST breaking up a bit and taking
on a more warm sector look of a deep CU field by late morning.
There should be another threat of convection around or shortly
after midday as cold front/dry line sweep across the area, and
have used VCTS to highlight this threat attm.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242359
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
659 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Clouds and mild temperatures blanket the area late this afternoon
and we`ve seen very little precipitation thus far. The main forecast
issue tonight will be the precipitation chance/trends. Present
indications are two main areas to watch. The first is an area of
origination in south central and southeast MO this evening. The
guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a perturbation in
the southwest flow aloft will track northeast out of OK across the
aforementioned region. The latest water vapor imagery suggests the
presence of 2 upstream perturbations. This disturbance combined with
with strong moisture convergence/lift via an intensifying and
veering LLJ should result in an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the southeast third of the CWA. The second region of interest
is much further west. The short wave trof currently getting ready to
move into the central and southern High Plains combined with lift
via a secondary branch of the southerly LLJ should result in the
development of strong-severe thunderstorms along and east of the
dryline in KS over the next 2-4 hours. This initially scattered
convection should grow upscale into a convective system across
eastern KS this evening which will migrate eastward ahead of the
advancing surface low, and impact areas along/north of I-70
overnight into Saturday morning.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

By 12z Saturday morning, strengthening surface low will be over
northwestern MO. Will see overnight activity sliding north and east
of forecast area as dry slot wraps around low with a brief break in
activity, mainly for St. Louis metro and areas to the south and east
through midday. Then for afternoon hours, possibility of severe
weather and location of it will depend on location of surface low,
frontal boundary and how much the atmosphere recovers from morning
activity. Reintroduced thunderstorms for all locations as there is
enough instability, at the surface and aloft and decent low level
jet for storms to develop even north of track of surface low. For
now best chances of severe weather will be over east central and
southeast Missouri as well as southern Illinois as surface low
slides east southeast Saturday afternoon. Models showing CAPE
between 1000-2500 J/kg, decent lapse rates and shear, with supercell
development possible and main severe threats being large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. SPC has placed this area in
a slight risk with an area of enhanced risk southeast of STL metro
area. Highs will vary from the low 60s far north to the mid 70s far
south.

System to exit region Saturday night with lingering showers tapering
off from north to south. Cooler air to slowly filter in with lows in
the low 40s far north to the low 50s far south.

Below normal temps and gradual clearing expected on Sunday as
surface ridge builds in. Beyond that, temperatures to slowly
moderate through the work week, with a shortwave sliding through
region on Wednesday with some scattered showers possible.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Tough aviation forecast this evening, but in general we should
see a deterioration of ceilings with the persistent WAA
transporting deep low level moisture into the region. Timing and
ultimately how low ceilings will go is still a bit of a question
mark, but heading towards IFR conditions seems appropriate given
the moisture progged into the area. Bigger question mark is
when/were convection will form over the region. There seems to be
some consensus in the explicit model solutions that there will be
a split in the precip early in the period, with activity over AR
primarily moving east while increasing convection over KS
eventually develops into NW MO. However, during 06-10z time frame
all of the solutions are suggesting fairly strong WAA/isentropic
ascent focused over the mid-Mississippi Valley that should mean
showers and a few thunderstorms for most of our TAF sites. For the
KCOU and STL metro TAFS, expect morning stratus to lift and break
up a bit...and take on a more warm sector/cumuliform look before
the next round of convection fires along the cold front/dry line
in the early afternoon. At this point, have simply used a VCTS to
highlight this threat, and will leave the details to later
forecasts. However, expect KUIN to remain in IFR cigs throughout
the day as model consensus suggests the surface low passes near
or just to the south of this TAF site.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect deteriorating ceilings throughout the
evening, with IFR ceilings developing after 06z as showers and
thunderstorms develop over the region. This precip is expected to
lift out early in the morning, with ST breaking up a bit and taking
on a more warm sector look of a deep CU field by late morning.
There should be another threat of convection around or shortly
after midday as cold front/dry line sweep across the area, and
have used VCTS to highlight this threat attm.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 242038
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
338 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Clouds and mild temperatures blanket the area late this afternoon
and we`ve seen very little precipitation thus far. The main forecast
issue tonight will be the precipitation chance/trends. Present
indications are two main areas to watch. The first is an area of
origination in south central and southeast MO this evening. The
guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a perturbation in
the southwest flow aloft will track northeast out of OK across the
aforementioned region. The latest water vapor imagery suggests the
presence of 2 upstream perturbations. This disturbance combined with
with strong moisture convergence/lift via an intensifying and
veering LLJ should result in an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the southeast third of the CWA. The second region of interest
is much further west. The short wave trof currently getting ready to
move into the central and southern High Plains combined with lift
via a secondary branch of the southerly LLJ should result in the
development of strong-severe thunderstorms along and east of the
dryline in KS over the next 2-4 hours. This initially scattered
convection should grow upscale into a convective system across
eastern KS this evening which will migrate eastward ahead of the
advancing surface low, and impact areas along/north of I-70
overnight into Saturday morning.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

By 12z Saturday morning, strengthening surface low will be over
northwestern MO. Will see overnight activity sliding north and east
of forecast area as dry slot wraps around low with a brief break in
activity, mainly for St. Louis metro and areas to the south and east
through midday. Then for afternoon hours, possibility of severe
weather and location of it will depend on location of surface low,
frontal boundary and how much the atmosphere recovers from morning
activity. Reintroduced thunderstorms for all locations as there is
enough instability, at the surface and aloft and decent low level
jet for storms to develop even north of track of surface low. For
now best chances of severe weather will be over east central and
southeast Missouri as well as southern Illinois as surface low
slides east southeast Saturday afternoon. Models showing CAPE
between 1000-2500 J/kg, decent lapse rates and shear, with supercell
development possible and main severe threats being large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. SPC has placed this area in
a slight risk with an area of enhanced risk southeast of STL metro
area. Highs will vary from the low 60s far north to the mid 70s far
south.

System to exit region Saturday night with lingering showers tapering
off from north to south. Cooler air to slowly filter in with lows in
the low 40s far north to the low 50s far south.

Below normal temps and gradual clearing expected on Sunday as
surface ridge builds in. Beyond that, temperatures to slowly
moderate through the work week, with a shortwave sliding through
region on Wednesday with some scattered showers possible.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Multi-layered clouds are occurring across the region at midday with
all sites VFR at this time. A large area of MVFR cigs will advance
into central MO/KCOU later this afternoon, gradually overspreading
the other terminals later this evening. Main precipitation through
mid-evening will be spotty showers with little if any impact. A
better threat of showers and thunderstorms will exist during the
later part of the evening into the overnight hours and this will
be possible in 2 modes. The first being showers and thunderstorms
which originate in southeast MO and push northeast and then a large
region of showers and thunderstorms which develops in KS late this
afternoon/this evening and moves east-northeast. Flight conditions
will deteriorate overnight with IFR developing and lasting into the
morning hours.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected until later this evening. Any
precipitation during this time period should be sprinkles or
spotty short-lived showers with little if any impact.

Later this evening a better threat of showers and thunderstorms
will exist and it will coincide with the arrival of MVFR cigs.
Showers and possibly thunderstorms which originate in southeast MO
will move northeast potentially impacting the terminal after
03-04z. Following this first batch, a large region of showers and
thunderstorms which develops in KS late this afternoon/this
evening may move into KSTL after 09z. Flight conditions will
deteriorate overnight with IFR developing and lasting into Saturday
morning. An additional threat of thunderstorms may unfold after
19-20z Saturday however due to the uncertainty will refrain from
mentioning in the current TAF.

Glass
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 242038
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
338 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Clouds and mild temperatures blanket the area late this afternoon
and we`ve seen very little precipitation thus far. The main forecast
issue tonight will be the precipitation chance/trends. Present
indications are two main areas to watch. The first is an area of
origination in south central and southeast MO this evening. The
guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a perturbation in
the southwest flow aloft will track northeast out of OK across the
aforementioned region. The latest water vapor imagery suggests the
presence of 2 upstream perturbations. This disturbance combined with
with strong moisture convergence/lift via an intensifying and
veering LLJ should result in an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the southeast third of the CWA. The second region of interest
is much further west. The short wave trof currently getting ready to
move into the central and southern High Plains combined with lift
via a secondary branch of the southerly LLJ should result in the
development of strong-severe thunderstorms along and east of the
dryline in KS over the next 2-4 hours. This initially scattered
convection should grow upscale into a convective system across
eastern KS this evening which will migrate eastward ahead of the
advancing surface low, and impact areas along/north of I-70
overnight into Saturday morning.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

By 12z Saturday morning, strengthening surface low will be over
northwestern MO. Will see overnight activity sliding north and east
of forecast area as dry slot wraps around low with a brief break in
activity, mainly for St. Louis metro and areas to the south and east
through midday. Then for afternoon hours, possibility of severe
weather and location of it will depend on location of surface low,
frontal boundary and how much the atmosphere recovers from morning
activity. Reintroduced thunderstorms for all locations as there is
enough instability, at the surface and aloft and decent low level
jet for storms to develop even north of track of surface low. For
now best chances of severe weather will be over east central and
southeast Missouri as well as southern Illinois as surface low
slides east southeast Saturday afternoon. Models showing CAPE
between 1000-2500 J/kg, decent lapse rates and shear, with supercell
development possible and main severe threats being large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. SPC has placed this area in
a slight risk with an area of enhanced risk southeast of STL metro
area. Highs will vary from the low 60s far north to the mid 70s far
south.

System to exit region Saturday night with lingering showers tapering
off from north to south. Cooler air to slowly filter in with lows in
the low 40s far north to the low 50s far south.

Below normal temps and gradual clearing expected on Sunday as
surface ridge builds in. Beyond that, temperatures to slowly
moderate through the work week, with a shortwave sliding through
region on Wednesday with some scattered showers possible.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Multi-layered clouds are occurring across the region at midday with
all sites VFR at this time. A large area of MVFR cigs will advance
into central MO/KCOU later this afternoon, gradually overspreading
the other terminals later this evening. Main precipitation through
mid-evening will be spotty showers with little if any impact. A
better threat of showers and thunderstorms will exist during the
later part of the evening into the overnight hours and this will
be possible in 2 modes. The first being showers and thunderstorms
which originate in southeast MO and push northeast and then a large
region of showers and thunderstorms which develops in KS late this
afternoon/this evening and moves east-northeast. Flight conditions
will deteriorate overnight with IFR developing and lasting into the
morning hours.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected until later this evening. Any
precipitation during this time period should be sprinkles or
spotty short-lived showers with little if any impact.

Later this evening a better threat of showers and thunderstorms
will exist and it will coincide with the arrival of MVFR cigs.
Showers and possibly thunderstorms which originate in southeast MO
will move northeast potentially impacting the terminal after
03-04z. Following this first batch, a large region of showers and
thunderstorms which develops in KS late this afternoon/this
evening may move into KSTL after 09z. Flight conditions will
deteriorate overnight with IFR developing and lasting into Saturday
morning. An additional threat of thunderstorms may unfold after
19-20z Saturday however due to the uncertainty will refrain from
mentioning in the current TAF.

Glass
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241755
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1255 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Raised high temperatures a tad for mainly southern and northern
sections of the CWA. Otherwise the previous forecast is on track.
Lots of clouds this afternoon and breezy with seasonable
temperatures. Best chance of precipitation will across parts of
central and southeast Missouri...namely spotty to scattered showers.


Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Heights continue to rise across the central CONUS as the deep
cyclone that brought a period of cool weather to the eastern half
of the country spins across New England. Meanwhile, a shortwave
located across southern California and Arizona is expected to move
toward and across the region over the next 48 hours.

Warm advection ahead of the system is well underway with a marked
increase in cloud cover over the last 6 hours.  Guidance in good
agreement that at least a few showers will develop this morning, but
confidence in coverage and how far east they will traverse in
question with dry low level air mass still entrenched across the
CWA. Have kept PoPs less than 30 percent today with the highest
values across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.  Otherwise,
believe temperatures will be a touch cooler than yesterday due to
the cloud cover with highs in the lower to middle 60s.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms really ramp up tonight as the
storm system approaches. Believe the best time for rapid development
and increase in coverage of preciptiation across the eastern half of
the CWA will occur between 05Z and 09Z. Then a dry slot punches
northeast through the CWA and quickly shifts the focus for rainfall
north and east of the CWA after 10Z. Highest threat of severe
weather has been pushed west across Kansas where best moisture
return will occur along with dry-line interaction.

The shortwave is forecast to become sheared as it moves in an
easterly direction across northern Missouri with the surface low
tracking east-southeast along Interstate 70 on Saturday. Along and
north of the low track, showers and clouds will help keep
temperatures cooler, while in the warm sector the threat of severe
thunderstorms may be realized across parts of southeast Missouri as
temperatures rise into the 70s. Not your typical setup for severe
weather in April, but can`t rule out a few severe storms mainly
south of St. Louis Saturday afternoon.

Cold front sweeps across the remaining CWA Saturday night with rain
ending from north to south. Should see some sunshine on Sunday, but
temperatures will once again struggle to climb back into the 60s
with cold advection taking place.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Temperatures to moderate next week with a dry forecast. Cutoff low
appears to remain south of the CWA Monday through Wednesday with a
large ridge developing across the Rockies by midweek.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Multi-layered clouds are occuring across the region at midday with
all sites VFR at this time. A large area of MVFR cigs will advance
into central MO/KCOU later this afternoon, gradually overspreading
the other terminals later this evening. Main precipitation through
mid-evening will be spotty showers with little if any impact. A
better threat of showers and thunderstorms will exist during the
later part of the evening into the overnight hours and this will
be possible in 2 modes. The first being showers and thunderstorms
which orginate in southeast MO and push northeast and then a large
region of showers and thunderstorms which develops in KS late this
afternoon/this evening and moves east-northeast. Flight conditions
will deteoriate overnight with IFR developing and lasting into the
morning hours.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected until later this evening. Any
precipitation during this time period should be sprinkles or
spotty short-lived showers with little if any impact.

Later this evening a better threat of showers and thunderstorms
will exist and it will coincide with the arrival of MVFR cigs.
Showers and possibly thunderstorms which orginate in southeast MO
will move northeast potentially impacting the terminal after
03-04z. Following this first batch, a large region of showers and
thunderstorms which develops in KS late this afternoon/this
evening may move into KSTL after 09z. Flight conditions will
deteoriate overnight with IFR developing and lasting into Saturday
morning. An additional threat of thunderstorms may unfold after
19-20z Saturday however due to the uncertainty will refrain from
mentioning in the current TAF.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 241755
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1255 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Raised high temperatures a tad for mainly southern and northern
sections of the CWA. Otherwise the previous forecast is on track.
Lots of clouds this afternoon and breezy with seasonable
temperatures. Best chance of precipitation will across parts of
central and southeast Missouri...namely spotty to scattered showers.


Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Heights continue to rise across the central CONUS as the deep
cyclone that brought a period of cool weather to the eastern half
of the country spins across New England. Meanwhile, a shortwave
located across southern California and Arizona is expected to move
toward and across the region over the next 48 hours.

Warm advection ahead of the system is well underway with a marked
increase in cloud cover over the last 6 hours.  Guidance in good
agreement that at least a few showers will develop this morning, but
confidence in coverage and how far east they will traverse in
question with dry low level air mass still entrenched across the
CWA. Have kept PoPs less than 30 percent today with the highest
values across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.  Otherwise,
believe temperatures will be a touch cooler than yesterday due to
the cloud cover with highs in the lower to middle 60s.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms really ramp up tonight as the
storm system approaches. Believe the best time for rapid development
and increase in coverage of preciptiation across the eastern half of
the CWA will occur between 05Z and 09Z. Then a dry slot punches
northeast through the CWA and quickly shifts the focus for rainfall
north and east of the CWA after 10Z. Highest threat of severe
weather has been pushed west across Kansas where best moisture
return will occur along with dry-line interaction.

The shortwave is forecast to become sheared as it moves in an
easterly direction across northern Missouri with the surface low
tracking east-southeast along Interstate 70 on Saturday. Along and
north of the low track, showers and clouds will help keep
temperatures cooler, while in the warm sector the threat of severe
thunderstorms may be realized across parts of southeast Missouri as
temperatures rise into the 70s. Not your typical setup for severe
weather in April, but can`t rule out a few severe storms mainly
south of St. Louis Saturday afternoon.

Cold front sweeps across the remaining CWA Saturday night with rain
ending from north to south. Should see some sunshine on Sunday, but
temperatures will once again struggle to climb back into the 60s
with cold advection taking place.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Temperatures to moderate next week with a dry forecast. Cutoff low
appears to remain south of the CWA Monday through Wednesday with a
large ridge developing across the Rockies by midweek.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Multi-layered clouds are occuring across the region at midday with
all sites VFR at this time. A large area of MVFR cigs will advance
into central MO/KCOU later this afternoon, gradually overspreading
the other terminals later this evening. Main precipitation through
mid-evening will be spotty showers with little if any impact. A
better threat of showers and thunderstorms will exist during the
later part of the evening into the overnight hours and this will
be possible in 2 modes. The first being showers and thunderstorms
which orginate in southeast MO and push northeast and then a large
region of showers and thunderstorms which develops in KS late this
afternoon/this evening and moves east-northeast. Flight conditions
will deteoriate overnight with IFR developing and lasting into the
morning hours.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected until later this evening. Any
precipitation during this time period should be sprinkles or
spotty short-lived showers with little if any impact.

Later this evening a better threat of showers and thunderstorms
will exist and it will coincide with the arrival of MVFR cigs.
Showers and possibly thunderstorms which orginate in southeast MO
will move northeast potentially impacting the terminal after
03-04z. Following this first batch, a large region of showers and
thunderstorms which develops in KS late this afternoon/this
evening may move into KSTL after 09z. Flight conditions will
deteoriate overnight with IFR developing and lasting into Saturday
morning. An additional threat of thunderstorms may unfold after
19-20z Saturday however due to the uncertainty will refrain from
mentioning in the current TAF.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241158
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
658 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Heights continue to rise across the central CONUS as the deep
cyclone that brought a period of cool weather to the eastern half
of the country spins across New England. Meanwhile, a shortwave
located across southern California and Arizona is expected to move
toward and across the region over the next 48 hours.

Warm advection ahead of the system is well underway with a marked
increase in cloud cover over the last 6 hours.  Guidance in good
agreement that at least a few showers will develop this morning, but
confidence in coverage and how far east they will traverse in
question with dry low level air mass still entrenched across the
CWA. Have kept PoPs less than 30 percent today with the highest
values across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.  Otherwise,
believe temperatures will be a touch cooler than yesterday due to
the cloud cover with highs in the lower to middle 60s.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms really ramp up tonight as the
storm system approaches. Believe the best time for rapid development
and increase in coverage of preciptiation across the eastern half of
the CWA will occur between 05Z and 09Z. Then a dry slot punches
northeast through the CWA and quickly shifts the focus for rainfall
north and east of the CWA after 10Z. Highest threat of severe
weather has been pushed west across Kansas where best moisture
return will occur along with dry-line interaction.

The shortwave is forecast to become sheared as it moves in an
easterly direction across northern Missouri with the surface low
tracking east-southeast along Interstate 70 on Saturday. Along and
north of the low track, showers and clouds will help keep
temperatures cooler, while in the warm sector the threat of severe
thunderstorms may be realized across parts of southeast Missouri as
temperatures rise into the 70s. Not your typical setup for severe
weather in April, but can`t rule out a few severe storms mainly
south of St. Louis Saturday afternoon.

Cold front sweeps across the remaining CWA Saturday night with rain
ending from north to south. Should see some sunshine on Sunday, but
temperatures will once again struggle to climb back into the 60s
with cold advection taking place.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Temperatures to moderate next week with a dry forecast. Cutoff low
appears to remain south of the CWA Monday through Wednesday with a
large ridge developing across the Rockies by midweek.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Cannot rule out isolated to scattered
SHRA/TSRA this morning/afternoon at KCOU but precip chances at
both KCOU/KUIN certainly look much higher after 24/21z when a low
pressure system will be approaching the region. Winds will remain
southeasterly to southerly through the TAF period. Expect cigs to
lower to MVFR and possibly to IFR after 25/03z.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: VFR for the first 0-6 hours with
increasing mid-level clouds. A period of prevailing SHRA/TSRA
looks more probable after 25/00z however isolated to scattered
SHRA/TSRA are possible during the afternoon hours. Winds will
remain southeasterly to southerly through the TAF period. Expect
cigs to lower to MVFR and possibly to IFR after 25/03z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241158
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
658 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Heights continue to rise across the central CONUS as the deep
cyclone that brought a period of cool weather to the eastern half
of the country spins across New England. Meanwhile, a shortwave
located across southern California and Arizona is expected to move
toward and across the region over the next 48 hours.

Warm advection ahead of the system is well underway with a marked
increase in cloud cover over the last 6 hours.  Guidance in good
agreement that at least a few showers will develop this morning, but
confidence in coverage and how far east they will traverse in
question with dry low level air mass still entrenched across the
CWA. Have kept PoPs less than 30 percent today with the highest
values across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.  Otherwise,
believe temperatures will be a touch cooler than yesterday due to
the cloud cover with highs in the lower to middle 60s.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms really ramp up tonight as the
storm system approaches. Believe the best time for rapid development
and increase in coverage of preciptiation across the eastern half of
the CWA will occur between 05Z and 09Z. Then a dry slot punches
northeast through the CWA and quickly shifts the focus for rainfall
north and east of the CWA after 10Z. Highest threat of severe
weather has been pushed west across Kansas where best moisture
return will occur along with dry-line interaction.

The shortwave is forecast to become sheared as it moves in an
easterly direction across northern Missouri with the surface low
tracking east-southeast along Interstate 70 on Saturday. Along and
north of the low track, showers and clouds will help keep
temperatures cooler, while in the warm sector the threat of severe
thunderstorms may be realized across parts of southeast Missouri as
temperatures rise into the 70s. Not your typical setup for severe
weather in April, but can`t rule out a few severe storms mainly
south of St. Louis Saturday afternoon.

Cold front sweeps across the remaining CWA Saturday night with rain
ending from north to south. Should see some sunshine on Sunday, but
temperatures will once again struggle to climb back into the 60s
with cold advection taking place.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Temperatures to moderate next week with a dry forecast. Cutoff low
appears to remain south of the CWA Monday through Wednesday with a
large ridge developing across the Rockies by midweek.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Cannot rule out isolated to scattered
SHRA/TSRA this morning/afternoon at KCOU but precip chances at
both KCOU/KUIN certainly look much higher after 24/21z when a low
pressure system will be approaching the region. Winds will remain
southeasterly to southerly through the TAF period. Expect cigs to
lower to MVFR and possibly to IFR after 25/03z.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: VFR for the first 0-6 hours with
increasing mid-level clouds. A period of prevailing SHRA/TSRA
looks more probable after 25/00z however isolated to scattered
SHRA/TSRA are possible during the afternoon hours. Winds will
remain southeasterly to southerly through the TAF period. Expect
cigs to lower to MVFR and possibly to IFR after 25/03z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 241158
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
658 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Heights continue to rise across the central CONUS as the deep
cyclone that brought a period of cool weather to the eastern half
of the country spins across New England. Meanwhile, a shortwave
located across southern California and Arizona is expected to move
toward and across the region over the next 48 hours.

Warm advection ahead of the system is well underway with a marked
increase in cloud cover over the last 6 hours.  Guidance in good
agreement that at least a few showers will develop this morning, but
confidence in coverage and how far east they will traverse in
question with dry low level air mass still entrenched across the
CWA. Have kept PoPs less than 30 percent today with the highest
values across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.  Otherwise,
believe temperatures will be a touch cooler than yesterday due to
the cloud cover with highs in the lower to middle 60s.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms really ramp up tonight as the
storm system approaches. Believe the best time for rapid development
and increase in coverage of preciptiation across the eastern half of
the CWA will occur between 05Z and 09Z. Then a dry slot punches
northeast through the CWA and quickly shifts the focus for rainfall
north and east of the CWA after 10Z. Highest threat of severe
weather has been pushed west across Kansas where best moisture
return will occur along with dry-line interaction.

The shortwave is forecast to become sheared as it moves in an
easterly direction across northern Missouri with the surface low
tracking east-southeast along Interstate 70 on Saturday. Along and
north of the low track, showers and clouds will help keep
temperatures cooler, while in the warm sector the threat of severe
thunderstorms may be realized across parts of southeast Missouri as
temperatures rise into the 70s. Not your typical setup for severe
weather in April, but can`t rule out a few severe storms mainly
south of St. Louis Saturday afternoon.

Cold front sweeps across the remaining CWA Saturday night with rain
ending from north to south. Should see some sunshine on Sunday, but
temperatures will once again struggle to climb back into the 60s
with cold advection taking place.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Temperatures to moderate next week with a dry forecast. Cutoff low
appears to remain south of the CWA Monday through Wednesday with a
large ridge developing across the Rockies by midweek.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Cannot rule out isolated to scattered
SHRA/TSRA this morning/afternoon at KCOU but precip chances at
both KCOU/KUIN certainly look much higher after 24/21z when a low
pressure system will be approaching the region. Winds will remain
southeasterly to southerly through the TAF period. Expect cigs to
lower to MVFR and possibly to IFR after 25/03z.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: VFR for the first 0-6 hours with
increasing mid-level clouds. A period of prevailing SHRA/TSRA
looks more probable after 25/00z however isolated to scattered
SHRA/TSRA are possible during the afternoon hours. Winds will
remain southeasterly to southerly through the TAF period. Expect
cigs to lower to MVFR and possibly to IFR after 25/03z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241158
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
658 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Heights continue to rise across the central CONUS as the deep
cyclone that brought a period of cool weather to the eastern half
of the country spins across New England. Meanwhile, a shortwave
located across southern California and Arizona is expected to move
toward and across the region over the next 48 hours.

Warm advection ahead of the system is well underway with a marked
increase in cloud cover over the last 6 hours.  Guidance in good
agreement that at least a few showers will develop this morning, but
confidence in coverage and how far east they will traverse in
question with dry low level air mass still entrenched across the
CWA. Have kept PoPs less than 30 percent today with the highest
values across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.  Otherwise,
believe temperatures will be a touch cooler than yesterday due to
the cloud cover with highs in the lower to middle 60s.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms really ramp up tonight as the
storm system approaches. Believe the best time for rapid development
and increase in coverage of preciptiation across the eastern half of
the CWA will occur between 05Z and 09Z. Then a dry slot punches
northeast through the CWA and quickly shifts the focus for rainfall
north and east of the CWA after 10Z. Highest threat of severe
weather has been pushed west across Kansas where best moisture
return will occur along with dry-line interaction.

The shortwave is forecast to become sheared as it moves in an
easterly direction across northern Missouri with the surface low
tracking east-southeast along Interstate 70 on Saturday. Along and
north of the low track, showers and clouds will help keep
temperatures cooler, while in the warm sector the threat of severe
thunderstorms may be realized across parts of southeast Missouri as
temperatures rise into the 70s. Not your typical setup for severe
weather in April, but can`t rule out a few severe storms mainly
south of St. Louis Saturday afternoon.

Cold front sweeps across the remaining CWA Saturday night with rain
ending from north to south. Should see some sunshine on Sunday, but
temperatures will once again struggle to climb back into the 60s
with cold advection taking place.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Temperatures to moderate next week with a dry forecast. Cutoff low
appears to remain south of the CWA Monday through Wednesday with a
large ridge developing across the Rockies by midweek.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Cannot rule out isolated to scattered
SHRA/TSRA this morning/afternoon at KCOU but precip chances at
both KCOU/KUIN certainly look much higher after 24/21z when a low
pressure system will be approaching the region. Winds will remain
southeasterly to southerly through the TAF period. Expect cigs to
lower to MVFR and possibly to IFR after 25/03z.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: VFR for the first 0-6 hours with
increasing mid-level clouds. A period of prevailing SHRA/TSRA
looks more probable after 25/00z however isolated to scattered
SHRA/TSRA are possible during the afternoon hours. Winds will
remain southeasterly to southerly through the TAF period. Expect
cigs to lower to MVFR and possibly to IFR after 25/03z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 240738
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
238 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Heights continue to rise across the central CONUS as the deep
cyclone that brought a period of cool weather to the eastern half
of the country spins across New England. Meanwhile, a shortwave
located across southern California and Arizona is expected to move
toward and across the region over the next 48 hours.

Warm advection ahead of the system is well underway with a marked
increase in cloud cover over the last 6 hours.  Guidance in good
agreement that at least a few showers will develop this morning, but
confidence in coverage and how far east they will traverse in
question with dry low level air mass still entrenched across the
CWA. Have kept PoPs less than 30 percent today with the highest
values across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.  Otherwise,
believe temperatures will be a touch cooler than yesterday due to
the cloud cover with highs in the lower to middle 60s.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms really ramp up tonight as the
storm system approaches. Believe the best time for rapid development
and increase in coverage of preciptiation across the eastern half of
the CWA will occur between 05Z and 09Z. Then a dry slot punches
northeast through the CWA and quickly shifts the focus for rainfall
north and east of the CWA after 10Z. Highest threat of severe
weather has been pushed west across Kansas where best moisture
return will occur along with dry-line interaction.

The shortwave is forecast to become sheared as it moves in an
easterly direction across northern Missouri with the surface low
tracking east-southeast along Interstate 70 on Saturday. Along and
north of the low track, showers and clouds will help keep
temperatures cooler, while in the warm sector the threat of severe
thunderstorms may be realized across parts of southeast Missouri as
temperatures rise into the 70s. Not your typical setup for severe
weather in April, but can`t rule out a few severe storms mainly
south of St. Louis Saturday afternoon.

Cold front sweeps across the remaining CWA Saturday night with rain
ending from north to south. Should see some sunshine on Sunday, but
temperatures will once again struggle to climb back into the 60s
with cold advection taking place.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Temperatures to moderate next week with a dry forecast. Cutoff low
appears to remain south of the CWA Monday through Wednesday with a
large ridge developing across the Rockies by midweek.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru
tonight. Showers are expected to develop late tonight and are
still anticipated to move into central MO just after 12z/Fri and
then attempt to proceed eastward to the airports near the MS river
by midday and into early afternoon. The best chances for thunder
will remain to the west, with COU being the most likely airport
out of the TAF sites here, and retained the thunder mention but
converted to VCTS. Otherwise, progressively and slowly
deteriorating prevailing conditions will be the rule for Friday
afternoon and into the night with widespread MVFR and perhaps IFR
CIGs developing eventually. E to SE surface winds will prevail
thru the period, gradually strengthening with time.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry until late Friday morning, with an
episode of rain towards midday and into early afternoon expected.
Thunder should be limited enough with what should be a weakening
broken band of SHRA to preclude mention at this time. VFR
conditions will gradually transition to MVFR Friday night and
perhaps eventually to IFR. E-SE winds will be set by late this
evening and then gradually strengthen thru Friday. Another episode
of at least showers expected Friday night, with better chances for
thunder.

TES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  55  70  47 /  20  80  80  50
Quincy          62  51  61  42 /  20  90  80  40
Columbia        64  57  69  47 /  30  70  60  20
Jefferson City  65  57  71  49 /  30  70  60  20
Salem           64  53  67  48 /  20  90  80  50
Farmington      63  54  74  50 /  30  70  50  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 240738
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
238 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Heights continue to rise across the central CONUS as the deep
cyclone that brought a period of cool weather to the eastern half
of the country spins across New England. Meanwhile, a shortwave
located across southern California and Arizona is expected to move
toward and across the region over the next 48 hours.

Warm advection ahead of the system is well underway with a marked
increase in cloud cover over the last 6 hours.  Guidance in good
agreement that at least a few showers will develop this morning, but
confidence in coverage and how far east they will traverse in
question with dry low level air mass still entrenched across the
CWA. Have kept PoPs less than 30 percent today with the highest
values across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.  Otherwise,
believe temperatures will be a touch cooler than yesterday due to
the cloud cover with highs in the lower to middle 60s.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms really ramp up tonight as the
storm system approaches. Believe the best time for rapid development
and increase in coverage of preciptiation across the eastern half of
the CWA will occur between 05Z and 09Z. Then a dry slot punches
northeast through the CWA and quickly shifts the focus for rainfall
north and east of the CWA after 10Z. Highest threat of severe
weather has been pushed west across Kansas where best moisture
return will occur along with dry-line interaction.

The shortwave is forecast to become sheared as it moves in an
easterly direction across northern Missouri with the surface low
tracking east-southeast along Interstate 70 on Saturday. Along and
north of the low track, showers and clouds will help keep
temperatures cooler, while in the warm sector the threat of severe
thunderstorms may be realized across parts of southeast Missouri as
temperatures rise into the 70s. Not your typical setup for severe
weather in April, but can`t rule out a few severe storms mainly
south of St. Louis Saturday afternoon.

Cold front sweeps across the remaining CWA Saturday night with rain
ending from north to south. Should see some sunshine on Sunday, but
temperatures will once again struggle to climb back into the 60s
with cold advection taking place.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Temperatures to moderate next week with a dry forecast. Cutoff low
appears to remain south of the CWA Monday through Wednesday with a
large ridge developing across the Rockies by midweek.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru
tonight. Showers are expected to develop late tonight and are
still anticipated to move into central MO just after 12z/Fri and
then attempt to proceed eastward to the airports near the MS river
by midday and into early afternoon. The best chances for thunder
will remain to the west, with COU being the most likely airport
out of the TAF sites here, and retained the thunder mention but
converted to VCTS. Otherwise, progressively and slowly
deteriorating prevailing conditions will be the rule for Friday
afternoon and into the night with widespread MVFR and perhaps IFR
CIGs developing eventually. E to SE surface winds will prevail
thru the period, gradually strengthening with time.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry until late Friday morning, with an
episode of rain towards midday and into early afternoon expected.
Thunder should be limited enough with what should be a weakening
broken band of SHRA to preclude mention at this time. VFR
conditions will gradually transition to MVFR Friday night and
perhaps eventually to IFR. E-SE winds will be set by late this
evening and then gradually strengthen thru Friday. Another episode
of at least showers expected Friday night, with better chances for
thunder.

TES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  55  70  47 /  20  80  80  50
Quincy          62  51  61  42 /  20  90  80  40
Columbia        64  57  69  47 /  30  70  60  20
Jefferson City  65  57  71  49 /  30  70  60  20
Salem           64  53  67  48 /  20  90  80  50
Farmington      63  54  74  50 /  30  70  50  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 240738
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
238 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Heights continue to rise across the central CONUS as the deep
cyclone that brought a period of cool weather to the eastern half
of the country spins across New England. Meanwhile, a shortwave
located across southern California and Arizona is expected to move
toward and across the region over the next 48 hours.

Warm advection ahead of the system is well underway with a marked
increase in cloud cover over the last 6 hours.  Guidance in good
agreement that at least a few showers will develop this morning, but
confidence in coverage and how far east they will traverse in
question with dry low level air mass still entrenched across the
CWA. Have kept PoPs less than 30 percent today with the highest
values across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.  Otherwise,
believe temperatures will be a touch cooler than yesterday due to
the cloud cover with highs in the lower to middle 60s.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms really ramp up tonight as the
storm system approaches. Believe the best time for rapid development
and increase in coverage of preciptiation across the eastern half of
the CWA will occur between 05Z and 09Z. Then a dry slot punches
northeast through the CWA and quickly shifts the focus for rainfall
north and east of the CWA after 10Z. Highest threat of severe
weather has been pushed west across Kansas where best moisture
return will occur along with dry-line interaction.

The shortwave is forecast to become sheared as it moves in an
easterly direction across northern Missouri with the surface low
tracking east-southeast along Interstate 70 on Saturday. Along and
north of the low track, showers and clouds will help keep
temperatures cooler, while in the warm sector the threat of severe
thunderstorms may be realized across parts of southeast Missouri as
temperatures rise into the 70s. Not your typical setup for severe
weather in April, but can`t rule out a few severe storms mainly
south of St. Louis Saturday afternoon.

Cold front sweeps across the remaining CWA Saturday night with rain
ending from north to south. Should see some sunshine on Sunday, but
temperatures will once again struggle to climb back into the 60s
with cold advection taking place.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Temperatures to moderate next week with a dry forecast. Cutoff low
appears to remain south of the CWA Monday through Wednesday with a
large ridge developing across the Rockies by midweek.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru
tonight. Showers are expected to develop late tonight and are
still anticipated to move into central MO just after 12z/Fri and
then attempt to proceed eastward to the airports near the MS river
by midday and into early afternoon. The best chances for thunder
will remain to the west, with COU being the most likely airport
out of the TAF sites here, and retained the thunder mention but
converted to VCTS. Otherwise, progressively and slowly
deteriorating prevailing conditions will be the rule for Friday
afternoon and into the night with widespread MVFR and perhaps IFR
CIGs developing eventually. E to SE surface winds will prevail
thru the period, gradually strengthening with time.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry until late Friday morning, with an
episode of rain towards midday and into early afternoon expected.
Thunder should be limited enough with what should be a weakening
broken band of SHRA to preclude mention at this time. VFR
conditions will gradually transition to MVFR Friday night and
perhaps eventually to IFR. E-SE winds will be set by late this
evening and then gradually strengthen thru Friday. Another episode
of at least showers expected Friday night, with better chances for
thunder.

TES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  55  70  47 /  20  80  80  50
Quincy          62  51  61  42 /  20  90  80  40
Columbia        64  57  69  47 /  30  70  60  20
Jefferson City  65  57  71  49 /  30  70  60  20
Salem           64  53  67  48 /  20  90  80  50
Farmington      63  54  74  50 /  30  70  50  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 240738
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
238 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Heights continue to rise across the central CONUS as the deep
cyclone that brought a period of cool weather to the eastern half
of the country spins across New England. Meanwhile, a shortwave
located across southern California and Arizona is expected to move
toward and across the region over the next 48 hours.

Warm advection ahead of the system is well underway with a marked
increase in cloud cover over the last 6 hours.  Guidance in good
agreement that at least a few showers will develop this morning, but
confidence in coverage and how far east they will traverse in
question with dry low level air mass still entrenched across the
CWA. Have kept PoPs less than 30 percent today with the highest
values across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.  Otherwise,
believe temperatures will be a touch cooler than yesterday due to
the cloud cover with highs in the lower to middle 60s.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms really ramp up tonight as the
storm system approaches. Believe the best time for rapid development
and increase in coverage of preciptiation across the eastern half of
the CWA will occur between 05Z and 09Z. Then a dry slot punches
northeast through the CWA and quickly shifts the focus for rainfall
north and east of the CWA after 10Z. Highest threat of severe
weather has been pushed west across Kansas where best moisture
return will occur along with dry-line interaction.

The shortwave is forecast to become sheared as it moves in an
easterly direction across northern Missouri with the surface low
tracking east-southeast along Interstate 70 on Saturday. Along and
north of the low track, showers and clouds will help keep
temperatures cooler, while in the warm sector the threat of severe
thunderstorms may be realized across parts of southeast Missouri as
temperatures rise into the 70s. Not your typical setup for severe
weather in April, but can`t rule out a few severe storms mainly
south of St. Louis Saturday afternoon.

Cold front sweeps across the remaining CWA Saturday night with rain
ending from north to south. Should see some sunshine on Sunday, but
temperatures will once again struggle to climb back into the 60s
with cold advection taking place.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Temperatures to moderate next week with a dry forecast. Cutoff low
appears to remain south of the CWA Monday through Wednesday with a
large ridge developing across the Rockies by midweek.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru
tonight. Showers are expected to develop late tonight and are
still anticipated to move into central MO just after 12z/Fri and
then attempt to proceed eastward to the airports near the MS river
by midday and into early afternoon. The best chances for thunder
will remain to the west, with COU being the most likely airport
out of the TAF sites here, and retained the thunder mention but
converted to VCTS. Otherwise, progressively and slowly
deteriorating prevailing conditions will be the rule for Friday
afternoon and into the night with widespread MVFR and perhaps IFR
CIGs developing eventually. E to SE surface winds will prevail
thru the period, gradually strengthening with time.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry until late Friday morning, with an
episode of rain towards midday and into early afternoon expected.
Thunder should be limited enough with what should be a weakening
broken band of SHRA to preclude mention at this time. VFR
conditions will gradually transition to MVFR Friday night and
perhaps eventually to IFR. E-SE winds will be set by late this
evening and then gradually strengthen thru Friday. Another episode
of at least showers expected Friday night, with better chances for
thunder.

TES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  55  70  47 /  20  80  80  50
Quincy          62  51  61  42 /  20  90  80  40
Columbia        64  57  69  47 /  30  70  60  20
Jefferson City  65  57  71  49 /  30  70  60  20
Salem           64  53  67  48 /  20  90  80  50
Farmington      63  54  74  50 /  30  70  50  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 240300
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1000 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

A large surface high currently centered through eastern MO was
responsible for a dry conditions and pleasant temperatures across
the region today. This high will retreat eastward tonight. The
lightest winds and least clouds will be this evening and this will
also be the period of greatest temperature drop. Overnight
progression of the upstream upper trof and ridge and veering of the
Great Plains LLJ will result in the onset of low-mid level warm
advection as well as the east and northeast transport of moisture.
While the highest quality moisture will remain well to our west
through 12z Friday, the warm advection associated lift, increase in
mid level moisture, and advection of steeper mid level lapse rates
into the area will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms
into portions of central and eastern MO late tonight into the
predawn hours. At least a few of the CAM are showing scattered
showers after 09z. The new forecast continues with pops in the 20-30
percent range but expands them slightly to the east.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

Still seeing timing and placement issues between the 12z NAM and GFS
especially with warm front that will be over region. No matter what
feel that elevated convection will continue to increase in coverage
and spread east across forecast area on Friday on nose of low level
jet. With the cloud cover and precipitation, highs will only be in
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Then Friday night, will see system begin to lift and slide east
across Missouri. Best chances of rain will be along and north of
I-70 with possible MCS developing and sliding east. Could see some
strong to severe storms with this wave, but will have better chances
during the day on Saturday as main cold front slides through. CAPE
in excess of 1000 J/kg expected with decent convergence along and
ahead of low, with best chances of severe weather over southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois. As for rainfall amounts, could see
up to an inch of rain mainly along and north of I-70 with higher
amounts possible Friday through Saturday night. Will see wide range
of temps on Saturday with highs in the upper 50s far north to the
mid 70s far south.

System to exit Saturday night with precipitation tapering off from
west to east. Then dry weather to persist through first part of next
week. Extended models are now a bit further south with next system,
so chances of rain a bit less, so just have slight chance pops
Tuesday through Wednesday, before dry and near normal temps return
next Thursday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru
tonight. Showers are expected to develop late tonight and are
still anticipated to move into central MO just after 12z/Fri and
then attempt to proceed eastward to the airports near the MS river
by midday and into early afternoon. The best chances for thunder
will remain to the west, with COU being the most likely airport
out of the TAF sites here, and retained the thunder mention but
converted to VCTS. Otherwise, progressively and slowly
deteriorating prevailing conditions will be the rule for Friday
afternoon and into the night with widespread MVFR and perhaps IFR
CIGs developing eventually. E to SE surface winds will prevail
thru the period, gradually strengthening with time.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry until late Friday morning, with an
episode of rain towards midday and into early afternoon expected.
Thunder should be limited enough with what should be a weakening
broken band of SHRA to preclude mention at this time. VFR
conditions will gradually transition to MVFR Friday night and
perhaps eventually to IFR. E-SE winds will be set by late this
evening and then gradually strengthen thru Friday. Another episode
of at least showers expected Friday night, with better chances for
thunder.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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