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000
FXUS63 KLSX 052052
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
352 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE EVENING LOOKS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DISSIPATING DIURNAL CU AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND GREATER MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS BY THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE RAP THAT WE MAY SEE SOME
SPOTTY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MO
INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MO IN THE NEAR DAWN HOURS, THEN
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY MORNING. A VERY WEAK PETURBATION IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY VEERING AND STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 3000-7000 FT LAYER AND ATTENDANT THERMAL AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD GENERATE SOME ACTIVITY IN THE 07-15Z TIME
FRAME. I HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST WITH
THIS IN MIND. OTHERWISE MILDER TEMPERATURES ON TAP TONIGHT AND A
RATHER WARM DAY IS ON SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY. THE MODELS NOW ALL HAVE
A BIT SLOWER PROGRESS WITH THE COLD FRONT, NOT ENTERING FAR
NORTHWEST MO UNTIL THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THIS SLOWER SPEED
AND LESSER CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE FORECAST WAA REGIME, I EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS AROUND 90. WE
COULD ALSO SEE SOME SPOTTY DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE BROAD WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.

GLASS

.LONG TERM: (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET AND STORMY
PATTERN WITH WIDESPREAD MULTI-DAY AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4
INCHES. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS JUST WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY
FOCUS WITH THE MODELS HAVING SOME GROWING DIFFERENCES WITH TIME
FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND WHERE THE FRONT MAY LIE. THE ECMWF HAS THE
MOST AGRESSIVE SOUTHWARD PUSH EARLY ON THEN WAVERS THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK. ALTERNATIVELY THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DON`T MOVE THE FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AND THEN WAVER IT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WAVES MOVE ALONG IT, FINALLY
PUSHING NORTH OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE REGION SPANNING
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VERY MOIST AND A BROAD REGION OF DEEP LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WE MAY ULTIMATELY NEED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ONCE WE CAN PIN DOWN THE REGION A BIT BETTER.

LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A RETURN OF SUMMER HEAT.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FORM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS EVERYTHING CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO MONDAY.
IFR/MVFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MO OVERNIGHT WITH THE
WEAK SOUTH WIND. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT MAY MAKE IT
INTO COU. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR FORECAST WITH SOME MORINING FOG AND
HAZE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: CONTINUED MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME MORNING FOG AND
HAZE ONCE AGAIN AS THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL LIKELY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGHT TO STOP IN. NAM AND GFS DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN THIS IS THE LAST 6 HOURS
OF THE PERIOD, AND A VICINITY WOULD BE ALL THIS IS NEEDED, WILL
LEAVE DRY.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 052052
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
352 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE EVENING LOOKS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DISSIPATING DIURNAL CU AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND GREATER MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS BY THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE RAP THAT WE MAY SEE SOME
SPOTTY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MO
INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MO IN THE NEAR DAWN HOURS, THEN
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY MORNING. A VERY WEAK PETURBATION IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY VEERING AND STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 3000-7000 FT LAYER AND ATTENDANT THERMAL AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD GENERATE SOME ACTIVITY IN THE 07-15Z TIME
FRAME. I HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST WITH
THIS IN MIND. OTHERWISE MILDER TEMPERATURES ON TAP TONIGHT AND A
RATHER WARM DAY IS ON SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY. THE MODELS NOW ALL HAVE
A BIT SLOWER PROGRESS WITH THE COLD FRONT, NOT ENTERING FAR
NORTHWEST MO UNTIL THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THIS SLOWER SPEED
AND LESSER CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE FORECAST WAA REGIME, I EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS AROUND 90. WE
COULD ALSO SEE SOME SPOTTY DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE BROAD WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.

GLASS

.LONG TERM: (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET AND STORMY
PATTERN WITH WIDESPREAD MULTI-DAY AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4
INCHES. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS JUST WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY
FOCUS WITH THE MODELS HAVING SOME GROWING DIFFERENCES WITH TIME
FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND WHERE THE FRONT MAY LIE. THE ECMWF HAS THE
MOST AGRESSIVE SOUTHWARD PUSH EARLY ON THEN WAVERS THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK. ALTERNATIVELY THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DON`T MOVE THE FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AND THEN WAVER IT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WAVES MOVE ALONG IT, FINALLY
PUSHING NORTH OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE REGION SPANNING
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VERY MOIST AND A BROAD REGION OF DEEP LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WE MAY ULTIMATELY NEED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ONCE WE CAN PIN DOWN THE REGION A BIT BETTER.

LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A RETURN OF SUMMER HEAT.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FORM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS EVERYTHING CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO MONDAY.
IFR/MVFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MO OVERNIGHT WITH THE
WEAK SOUTH WIND. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT MAY MAKE IT
INTO COU. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR FORECAST WITH SOME MORINING FOG AND
HAZE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: CONTINUED MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME MORNING FOG AND
HAZE ONCE AGAIN AS THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL LIKELY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGHT TO STOP IN. NAM AND GFS DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN THIS IS THE LAST 6 HOURS
OF THE PERIOD, AND A VICINITY WOULD BE ALL THIS IS NEEDED, WILL
LEAVE DRY.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 051548
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1048 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL BE WITH US THIS MORNING...ENHANCED IN THE ST.
LOUIS AREA BY THE INCREASED PARTICULATE MATTER FROM LAST EVENINGS
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR DAY ON TAP TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY AS A
SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STEADILY INCREASING HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S. OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. HAVE SOME CONCERN OF MULTI-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING TWO INCHES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH
COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL OR PROLONG FLOODING.

THE ECWMF LINGERS THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF STORMS...WHILE THE GFS LIFTS THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WEEKEND UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FORM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS EVERYTHING CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO MONDAY.
IFR/MVFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MO OVERNIGHT WITH THE
WEAK SOUTH WIND. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT MAY MAKE IT
INTO COU. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR FORECAST WITH SOME MORINING FOG AND
HAZE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: CONTINUED MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME MORNING FOG AND
HAZE ONCE AGAIN AS THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL LIKELY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGHT TO STOP IN. NAM AND GFS DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN THIS IS THE LAST 6 HOURS
OF THE PERIOD, AND A VICINITY WOULD BE ALL THIS IS NEEDED, WILL
LEAVE DRY.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 051548
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1048 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL BE WITH US THIS MORNING...ENHANCED IN THE ST.
LOUIS AREA BY THE INCREASED PARTICULATE MATTER FROM LAST EVENINGS
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR DAY ON TAP TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY AS A
SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STEADILY INCREASING HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S. OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. HAVE SOME CONCERN OF MULTI-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING TWO INCHES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH
COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL OR PROLONG FLOODING.

THE ECWMF LINGERS THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF STORMS...WHILE THE GFS LIFTS THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WEEKEND UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FORM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS EVERYTHING CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO MONDAY.
IFR/MVFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MO OVERNIGHT WITH THE
WEAK SOUTH WIND. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT MAY MAKE IT
INTO COU. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR FORECAST WITH SOME MORINING FOG AND
HAZE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: CONTINUED MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME MORNING FOG AND
HAZE ONCE AGAIN AS THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL LIKELY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGHT TO STOP IN. NAM AND GFS DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN THIS IS THE LAST 6 HOURS
OF THE PERIOD, AND A VICINITY WOULD BE ALL THIS IS NEEDED, WILL
LEAVE DRY.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 051147
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
647 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL BE WITH US THIS MORNING...ENHANCED IN THE ST.
LOUIS AREA BY THE INCREASED PARTICULATE MATTER FROM LAST EVENINGS
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR DAY ON TAP TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY AS A
SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STEADILY INCREASING HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S. OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. HAVE SOME CONCERN OF MULTI-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING TWO INCHES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH
COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL OR PROLONG FLOODING.

THE ECWMF LINGERS THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF STORMS...WHILE THE GFS LIFTS THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WEEKEND UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: EARLY MORNING IFR TO MVFR VSBYS IN
LIGHT FOG/HAZE SHOULD IMPROVE WITH DIURNAL MIXING. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER. WINDS MAY BACK SLIGHTLY AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
BETWEEN 05/21Z AND 06/06Z BEFORE VEERING AGAIN AND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AFTER 06/09Z.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: IFR TO MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
FOG/HAZE (ENHANCED BY THE SMOKE FROM LAST NIGHT`S FIREWORKS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA) SHOULD IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH DIURNAL
MIXING. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. WINDS MAY BACK SLIGHTLY AND BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 05/21Z AND 06/06Z BEFORE VEERING AGAIN
AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AFTER 06/09Z.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 051147
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
647 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL BE WITH US THIS MORNING...ENHANCED IN THE ST.
LOUIS AREA BY THE INCREASED PARTICULATE MATTER FROM LAST EVENINGS
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR DAY ON TAP TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY AS A
SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STEADILY INCREASING HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S. OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. HAVE SOME CONCERN OF MULTI-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING TWO INCHES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH
COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL OR PROLONG FLOODING.

THE ECWMF LINGERS THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF STORMS...WHILE THE GFS LIFTS THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WEEKEND UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: EARLY MORNING IFR TO MVFR VSBYS IN
LIGHT FOG/HAZE SHOULD IMPROVE WITH DIURNAL MIXING. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER. WINDS MAY BACK SLIGHTLY AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
BETWEEN 05/21Z AND 06/06Z BEFORE VEERING AGAIN AND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AFTER 06/09Z.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: IFR TO MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
FOG/HAZE (ENHANCED BY THE SMOKE FROM LAST NIGHT`S FIREWORKS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA) SHOULD IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH DIURNAL
MIXING. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. WINDS MAY BACK SLIGHTLY AND BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 05/21Z AND 06/06Z BEFORE VEERING AGAIN
AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AFTER 06/09Z.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 051147
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
647 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL BE WITH US THIS MORNING...ENHANCED IN THE ST.
LOUIS AREA BY THE INCREASED PARTICULATE MATTER FROM LAST EVENINGS
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR DAY ON TAP TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY AS A
SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STEADILY INCREASING HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S. OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. HAVE SOME CONCERN OF MULTI-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING TWO INCHES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH
COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL OR PROLONG FLOODING.

THE ECWMF LINGERS THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF STORMS...WHILE THE GFS LIFTS THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WEEKEND UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: EARLY MORNING IFR TO MVFR VSBYS IN
LIGHT FOG/HAZE SHOULD IMPROVE WITH DIURNAL MIXING. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER. WINDS MAY BACK SLIGHTLY AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
BETWEEN 05/21Z AND 06/06Z BEFORE VEERING AGAIN AND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AFTER 06/09Z.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: IFR TO MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
FOG/HAZE (ENHANCED BY THE SMOKE FROM LAST NIGHT`S FIREWORKS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA) SHOULD IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH DIURNAL
MIXING. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. WINDS MAY BACK SLIGHTLY AND BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 05/21Z AND 06/06Z BEFORE VEERING AGAIN
AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AFTER 06/09Z.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 051147
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
647 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL BE WITH US THIS MORNING...ENHANCED IN THE ST.
LOUIS AREA BY THE INCREASED PARTICULATE MATTER FROM LAST EVENINGS
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR DAY ON TAP TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY AS A
SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STEADILY INCREASING HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S. OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. HAVE SOME CONCERN OF MULTI-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING TWO INCHES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH
COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL OR PROLONG FLOODING.

THE ECWMF LINGERS THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF STORMS...WHILE THE GFS LIFTS THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WEEKEND UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: EARLY MORNING IFR TO MVFR VSBYS IN
LIGHT FOG/HAZE SHOULD IMPROVE WITH DIURNAL MIXING. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER. WINDS MAY BACK SLIGHTLY AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
BETWEEN 05/21Z AND 06/06Z BEFORE VEERING AGAIN AND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AFTER 06/09Z.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: IFR TO MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
FOG/HAZE (ENHANCED BY THE SMOKE FROM LAST NIGHT`S FIREWORKS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA) SHOULD IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH DIURNAL
MIXING. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. WINDS MAY BACK SLIGHTLY AND BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 05/21Z AND 06/06Z BEFORE VEERING AGAIN
AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AFTER 06/09Z.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 050735
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
235 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL BE WITH US THIS MORNING...ENHANCED IN THE ST.
LOUIS AREA BY THE INCREASED PARTICULATE MATTER FROM LAST EVENINGS
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR DAY ON TAP TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY AS A
SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STEADILY INCREASING HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S. OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. HAVE SOME CONCERN OF MULTI-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING TWO INCHES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH
COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL OR PROLONG FLOODING.

THE ECWMF LINGERS THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF STORMS...WHILE THE GFS LIFTS THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WEEKEND UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MVFR VSBYS ARE SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SOME IFR VSBYS BEING REPORTED IN THE STL METRO
AREA AT THIS TIME AS WELL...MIGHT BE SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. THIS
SMOKE MAY DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT ALLOWING VSBYS TO IMPROVE INTO MVFR
CATEGORY...OR FOG/HAZE MAY THICKEN AS SMOKE DISSIPATES AND VSBYS
MAY CHANGE LITTLE OR EVEN WORSEN. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT EITHER WAY
AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK
AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR LINGERING FOG AND
HAZE. THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

HAZE AND SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS HAS LOWERED VSBY BELOW 3SM AT THIS
TIME. AM UNSURE HOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT THERE WILL BE. SMOKE MAY
DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT ALLOWING VSBYS TO IMPROVE INTO MVFR
CATEGORY...OR FOG/HAZE MAY THICKEN AS SMOKE DISSIPATES AND VSBYS
MAY CHANGE LITTLE OR EVEN WORSEN. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT EITHER WAY
AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK
AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR LINGERING FOG AND
HAZE. THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 050735
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
235 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL BE WITH US THIS MORNING...ENHANCED IN THE ST.
LOUIS AREA BY THE INCREASED PARTICULATE MATTER FROM LAST EVENINGS
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR DAY ON TAP TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY AS A
SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STEADILY INCREASING HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S. OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. HAVE SOME CONCERN OF MULTI-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING TWO INCHES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH
COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL OR PROLONG FLOODING.

THE ECWMF LINGERS THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF STORMS...WHILE THE GFS LIFTS THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WEEKEND UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MVFR VSBYS ARE SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SOME IFR VSBYS BEING REPORTED IN THE STL METRO
AREA AT THIS TIME AS WELL...MIGHT BE SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. THIS
SMOKE MAY DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT ALLOWING VSBYS TO IMPROVE INTO MVFR
CATEGORY...OR FOG/HAZE MAY THICKEN AS SMOKE DISSIPATES AND VSBYS
MAY CHANGE LITTLE OR EVEN WORSEN. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT EITHER WAY
AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK
AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR LINGERING FOG AND
HAZE. THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

HAZE AND SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS HAS LOWERED VSBY BELOW 3SM AT THIS
TIME. AM UNSURE HOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT THERE WILL BE. SMOKE MAY
DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT ALLOWING VSBYS TO IMPROVE INTO MVFR
CATEGORY...OR FOG/HAZE MAY THICKEN AS SMOKE DISSIPATES AND VSBYS
MAY CHANGE LITTLE OR EVEN WORSEN. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT EITHER WAY
AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK
AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR LINGERING FOG AND
HAZE. THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 050453
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1153 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY NEED SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. THICKER HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS SOUTHEAST OF STL METRO ASSOCIATED WITH A MATURE
STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN TN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL PULL THIS WITH IT, LEAVING BEHIND
CLEAR SKIES, IF NOT CLEAR ALREADY. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
OTHERWISE SEEMS VERY MUCH IN ORDER WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
60S ONCE AGAIN WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN MANY AREAS TOWARDS
MORNING.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

TRANQUIL NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE AREA WITH PLEASANT EARLY JULY
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY RETREAT EAST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS DEVELOPING. THE CURRENT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING, WHILE SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF A PLAINS SHORTWAVE. OVERALL SKIES WILL RANGE FROM CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUD AND A TAD HAZY, WITH SOME PATCY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

GLASS

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT EAST
WHILE SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ATTENDANT
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCORDINGLY, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER AND
CLOSER TO AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR
TO BE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

THE DRY PERIOD HOWEVER WILL COME TO AN END ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TROFFING ALOFT WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS DIG
EAST SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BRING A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON TIMING WITH THE NAM THE SLOW OUTLIER AND THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS/SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOLLOWED - BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MO
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90, WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
AND H85 DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ALONG WITH FAVORABLY DEEP LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONTENT /PWS NEAR 2
INCHES/ AND OVERALL SLOW WIND SPEEDS ALOFT, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH MULTI-DAY RAINFALL EVENT.

WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST DURING THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES. THESE COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT WAVERING ABOUT THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MVFR VSBYS ARE SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SOME IFR VSBYS BEING REPORTED IN THE STL METRO
AREA AT THIS TIME AS WELL...MIGHT BE SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. THIS
SMOKE MAY DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT ALLOWING VSBYS TO IMPROVE INTO MVFR
CATEGORY...OR FOG/HAZE MAY THICKEN AS SMOKE DISSIPATES AND VSBYS
MAY CHANGE LITTLE OR EVEN WORSEN. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT EITHER WAY
AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK
AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR LINGERING FOG AND
HAZE. THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

HAZE AND SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS HAS LOWERED VSBY BELOW 3SM AT THIS
TIME. AM UNSURE HOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT THERE WILL BE. SMOKE MAY
DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT ALLOWING VSBYS TO IMPROVE INTO MVFR
CATEGORY...OR FOG/HAZE MAY THICKEN AS SMOKE DISSIPATES AND VSBYS
MAY CHANGE LITTLE OR EVEN WORSEN. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT EITHER WAY
AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK
AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR LINGERING FOG AND
HAZE. THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 050453
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1153 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY NEED SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. THICKER HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS SOUTHEAST OF STL METRO ASSOCIATED WITH A MATURE
STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN TN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL PULL THIS WITH IT, LEAVING BEHIND
CLEAR SKIES, IF NOT CLEAR ALREADY. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
OTHERWISE SEEMS VERY MUCH IN ORDER WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
60S ONCE AGAIN WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN MANY AREAS TOWARDS
MORNING.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

TRANQUIL NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE AREA WITH PLEASANT EARLY JULY
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY RETREAT EAST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS DEVELOPING. THE CURRENT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING, WHILE SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF A PLAINS SHORTWAVE. OVERALL SKIES WILL RANGE FROM CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUD AND A TAD HAZY, WITH SOME PATCY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

GLASS

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT EAST
WHILE SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ATTENDANT
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCORDINGLY, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER AND
CLOSER TO AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR
TO BE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

THE DRY PERIOD HOWEVER WILL COME TO AN END ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TROFFING ALOFT WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS DIG
EAST SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BRING A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON TIMING WITH THE NAM THE SLOW OUTLIER AND THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS/SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOLLOWED - BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MO
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90, WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
AND H85 DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ALONG WITH FAVORABLY DEEP LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONTENT /PWS NEAR 2
INCHES/ AND OVERALL SLOW WIND SPEEDS ALOFT, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH MULTI-DAY RAINFALL EVENT.

WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST DURING THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES. THESE COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT WAVERING ABOUT THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MVFR VSBYS ARE SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SOME IFR VSBYS BEING REPORTED IN THE STL METRO
AREA AT THIS TIME AS WELL...MIGHT BE SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. THIS
SMOKE MAY DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT ALLOWING VSBYS TO IMPROVE INTO MVFR
CATEGORY...OR FOG/HAZE MAY THICKEN AS SMOKE DISSIPATES AND VSBYS
MAY CHANGE LITTLE OR EVEN WORSEN. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT EITHER WAY
AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK
AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR LINGERING FOG AND
HAZE. THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

HAZE AND SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS HAS LOWERED VSBY BELOW 3SM AT THIS
TIME. AM UNSURE HOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT THERE WILL BE. SMOKE MAY
DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT ALLOWING VSBYS TO IMPROVE INTO MVFR
CATEGORY...OR FOG/HAZE MAY THICKEN AS SMOKE DISSIPATES AND VSBYS
MAY CHANGE LITTLE OR EVEN WORSEN. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT EITHER WAY
AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK
AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR LINGERING FOG AND
HAZE. THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 050218
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
918 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY NEED SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. THICKER HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS SOUTHEAST OF STL METRO ASSOCIATED WITH A MATURE
STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN TN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL PULL THIS WITH IT, LEAVING BEHIND
CLEAR SKIES, IF NOT CLEAR ALREADY. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
OTHERWISE SEEMS VERY MUCH IN ORDER WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
60S ONCE AGAIN WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN MANY AREAS TOWARDS
MORNING.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

TRANQUIL NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE AREA WITH PLEASANT EARLY JULY
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY RETREAT EAST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS DEVELOPING. THE CURRENT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING, WHILE SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF A PLAINS SHORTWAVE. OVERALL SKIES WILL RANGE FROM CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUD AND A TAD HAZY, WITH SOME PATCY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

GLASS

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT EAST
WHILE SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ATTENDANT
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCORDINGLY, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER AND
CLOSER TO AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR
TO BE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

THE DRY PERIOD HOWEVER WILL COME TO AN END ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TROFFING ALOFT WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS DIG
EAST SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BRING A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON TIMING WITH THE NAM THE SLOW OUTLIER AND THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS/SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOLLOWED - BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MO
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90, WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
AND H85 DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ALONG WITH FAVORABLY DEEP LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONTENT /PWS NEAR 2
INCHES/ AND OVERALL SLOW WIND SPEEDS ALOFT, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH MULTI-DAY RAINFALL EVENT.

WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST DURING THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES. THESE COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT WAVERING ABOUT THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAZY EVENING CROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ONLY ONE SITE
(KHAE) IS REPORTING VSBYS LESS THAN 6SM. EXPECT THE VSBYS TO
SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THERE MAY BE TIMES WHEN SMOKE
FROM FIREWORKS SHARPLY LIMITS VSBYS FOR SHORT PERIODS. THINK THAT
MVFR VSBYS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE, AND POCKETS OF IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT PERHAPS NOT AS
PREVALENT AS THIS MORNING DUE TO A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
REMAINDER OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

HAZY CONDITIONS AT LAMBERT WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, SMOKE FROM
FIREWORKS MAY SHARPLY LIMIT VSBYS FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS EVENING.
IN GENERAL THOUGH, SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST MAY HELP TO KEEP FOG FROM REDUCING THE VISIBILITY AS
MUCH AS THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 050218
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
918 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY NEED SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. THICKER HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS SOUTHEAST OF STL METRO ASSOCIATED WITH A MATURE
STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN TN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL PULL THIS WITH IT, LEAVING BEHIND
CLEAR SKIES, IF NOT CLEAR ALREADY. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
OTHERWISE SEEMS VERY MUCH IN ORDER WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
60S ONCE AGAIN WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN MANY AREAS TOWARDS
MORNING.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

TRANQUIL NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE AREA WITH PLEASANT EARLY JULY
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY RETREAT EAST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS DEVELOPING. THE CURRENT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING, WHILE SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF A PLAINS SHORTWAVE. OVERALL SKIES WILL RANGE FROM CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUD AND A TAD HAZY, WITH SOME PATCY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

GLASS

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT EAST
WHILE SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ATTENDANT
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCORDINGLY, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER AND
CLOSER TO AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR
TO BE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

THE DRY PERIOD HOWEVER WILL COME TO AN END ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TROFFING ALOFT WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS DIG
EAST SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BRING A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON TIMING WITH THE NAM THE SLOW OUTLIER AND THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS/SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOLLOWED - BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MO
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90, WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
AND H85 DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ALONG WITH FAVORABLY DEEP LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONTENT /PWS NEAR 2
INCHES/ AND OVERALL SLOW WIND SPEEDS ALOFT, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH MULTI-DAY RAINFALL EVENT.

WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST DURING THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES. THESE COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT WAVERING ABOUT THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAZY EVENING CROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ONLY ONE SITE
(KHAE) IS REPORTING VSBYS LESS THAN 6SM. EXPECT THE VSBYS TO
SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THERE MAY BE TIMES WHEN SMOKE
FROM FIREWORKS SHARPLY LIMITS VSBYS FOR SHORT PERIODS. THINK THAT
MVFR VSBYS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE, AND POCKETS OF IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT PERHAPS NOT AS
PREVALENT AS THIS MORNING DUE TO A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
REMAINDER OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

HAZY CONDITIONS AT LAMBERT WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, SMOKE FROM
FIREWORKS MAY SHARPLY LIMIT VSBYS FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS EVENING.
IN GENERAL THOUGH, SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST MAY HELP TO KEEP FOG FROM REDUCING THE VISIBILITY AS
MUCH AS THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 042332
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
632 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

TRANQUIL NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE AREA WITH PLEASANT EARLY JULY
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY RETREAT EAST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS DEVELOPING. THE CURRENT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING, WHILE SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF A PLAINS SHORTWAVE. OVERALL SKIES WILL RANGE FROM CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUD AND A TAD HAZY, WITH SOME PATCY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

GLASS

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT EAST
WHILE SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ATTENDANT
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCORDINGLY, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER AND
CLOSER TO AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR
TO BE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

THE DRY PERIOD HOWEVER WILL COME TO AN END ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TROFFING ALOFT WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS DIG
EAST SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BRING A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON TIMING WITH THE NAM THE SLOW OUTLIER AND THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS/SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOLLOWED - BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MO
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90, WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
AND H85 DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ALONG WITH FAVORABLY DEEP LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONTENT /PWS NEAR 2
INCHES/ AND OVERALL SLOW WIND SPEEDS ALOFT, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH MULTI-DAY RAINFALL EVENT.

WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST DURING THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES. THESE COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT WAVERING ABOUT THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAZY EVENING CROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ONLY ONE SITE
(KHAE) IS REPORTING VSBYS LESS THAN 6SM. EXPECT THE VSBYS TO
SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THERE MAY BE TIMES WHEN SMOKE
FROM FIREWORKS SHARPLY LIMITS VSBYS FOR SHORT PERIODS. THINK THAT
MVFR VSBYS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE, AND POCKETS OF IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT PERHAPS NOT AS
PREVALENT AS THIS MORNING DUE TO A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
REMAINDER OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

HAZY CONDITIONS AT LAMBERT WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, SMOKE FROM
FIREWORKS MAY SHARPLY LIMIT VSBYS FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS EVENING.
IN GENERAL THOUGH, SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST MAY HELP TO KEEP FOG FROM REDUCING THE VISIBILITY AS
MUCH AS THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 042332
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
632 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

TRANQUIL NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE AREA WITH PLEASANT EARLY JULY
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY RETREAT EAST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS DEVELOPING. THE CURRENT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING, WHILE SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF A PLAINS SHORTWAVE. OVERALL SKIES WILL RANGE FROM CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUD AND A TAD HAZY, WITH SOME PATCY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

GLASS

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT EAST
WHILE SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ATTENDANT
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCORDINGLY, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER AND
CLOSER TO AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR
TO BE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

THE DRY PERIOD HOWEVER WILL COME TO AN END ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TROFFING ALOFT WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS DIG
EAST SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BRING A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON TIMING WITH THE NAM THE SLOW OUTLIER AND THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS/SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOLLOWED - BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MO
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90, WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
AND H85 DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ALONG WITH FAVORABLY DEEP LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONTENT /PWS NEAR 2
INCHES/ AND OVERALL SLOW WIND SPEEDS ALOFT, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH MULTI-DAY RAINFALL EVENT.

WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST DURING THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES. THESE COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT WAVERING ABOUT THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAZY EVENING CROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ONLY ONE SITE
(KHAE) IS REPORTING VSBYS LESS THAN 6SM. EXPECT THE VSBYS TO
SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THERE MAY BE TIMES WHEN SMOKE
FROM FIREWORKS SHARPLY LIMITS VSBYS FOR SHORT PERIODS. THINK THAT
MVFR VSBYS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE, AND POCKETS OF IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT PERHAPS NOT AS
PREVALENT AS THIS MORNING DUE TO A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
REMAINDER OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

HAZY CONDITIONS AT LAMBERT WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, SMOKE FROM
FIREWORKS MAY SHARPLY LIMIT VSBYS FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS EVENING.
IN GENERAL THOUGH, SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST MAY HELP TO KEEP FOG FROM REDUCING THE VISIBILITY AS
MUCH AS THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 042332
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
632 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

TRANQUIL NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE AREA WITH PLEASANT EARLY JULY
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY RETREAT EAST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS DEVELOPING. THE CURRENT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING, WHILE SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF A PLAINS SHORTWAVE. OVERALL SKIES WILL RANGE FROM CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUD AND A TAD HAZY, WITH SOME PATCY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

GLASS

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT EAST
WHILE SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ATTENDANT
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCORDINGLY, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER AND
CLOSER TO AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR
TO BE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

THE DRY PERIOD HOWEVER WILL COME TO AN END ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TROFFING ALOFT WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS DIG
EAST SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BRING A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON TIMING WITH THE NAM THE SLOW OUTLIER AND THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS/SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOLLOWED - BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MO
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90, WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
AND H85 DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ALONG WITH FAVORABLY DEEP LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONTENT /PWS NEAR 2
INCHES/ AND OVERALL SLOW WIND SPEEDS ALOFT, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH MULTI-DAY RAINFALL EVENT.

WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST DURING THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES. THESE COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT WAVERING ABOUT THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAZY EVENING CROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ONLY ONE SITE
(KHAE) IS REPORTING VSBYS LESS THAN 6SM. EXPECT THE VSBYS TO
SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THERE MAY BE TIMES WHEN SMOKE
FROM FIREWORKS SHARPLY LIMITS VSBYS FOR SHORT PERIODS. THINK THAT
MVFR VSBYS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE, AND POCKETS OF IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT PERHAPS NOT AS
PREVALENT AS THIS MORNING DUE TO A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
REMAINDER OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

HAZY CONDITIONS AT LAMBERT WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, SMOKE FROM
FIREWORKS MAY SHARPLY LIMIT VSBYS FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS EVENING.
IN GENERAL THOUGH, SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST MAY HELP TO KEEP FOG FROM REDUCING THE VISIBILITY AS
MUCH AS THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 042332
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
632 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

TRANQUIL NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE AREA WITH PLEASANT EARLY JULY
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY RETREAT EAST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS DEVELOPING. THE CURRENT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING, WHILE SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF A PLAINS SHORTWAVE. OVERALL SKIES WILL RANGE FROM CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUD AND A TAD HAZY, WITH SOME PATCY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

GLASS

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT EAST
WHILE SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ATTENDANT
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCORDINGLY, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER AND
CLOSER TO AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR
TO BE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

THE DRY PERIOD HOWEVER WILL COME TO AN END ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TROFFING ALOFT WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS DIG
EAST SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BRING A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON TIMING WITH THE NAM THE SLOW OUTLIER AND THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS/SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOLLOWED - BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MO
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90, WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
AND H85 DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ALONG WITH FAVORABLY DEEP LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONTENT /PWS NEAR 2
INCHES/ AND OVERALL SLOW WIND SPEEDS ALOFT, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH MULTI-DAY RAINFALL EVENT.

WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST DURING THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES. THESE COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT WAVERING ABOUT THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAZY EVENING CROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ONLY ONE SITE
(KHAE) IS REPORTING VSBYS LESS THAN 6SM. EXPECT THE VSBYS TO
SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THERE MAY BE TIMES WHEN SMOKE
FROM FIREWORKS SHARPLY LIMITS VSBYS FOR SHORT PERIODS. THINK THAT
MVFR VSBYS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE, AND POCKETS OF IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT PERHAPS NOT AS
PREVALENT AS THIS MORNING DUE TO A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
REMAINDER OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

HAZY CONDITIONS AT LAMBERT WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, SMOKE FROM
FIREWORKS MAY SHARPLY LIMIT VSBYS FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS EVENING.
IN GENERAL THOUGH, SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST MAY HELP TO KEEP FOG FROM REDUCING THE VISIBILITY AS
MUCH AS THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 042050
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

TRANQUIL NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE AREA WITH PLEASANT EARLY JULY
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY RETREAT EAST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS DEVELOPING. THE CURRENT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING, WHILE SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF A PLAINS SHORTWAVE. OVERALL SKIES WILL RANGE FROM CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUD AND A TAD HAZY, WITH SOME PATCY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

GLASS

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT EAST
WHILE SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ATTENDANT
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCORDINGLY, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER AND
CLOSER TO AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR
TO BE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

THE DRY PERIOD HOWEVER WILL COME TO AN END ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TROFFING ALOFT WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS DIG
EAST SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BRING A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON TIMING WITH THE NAM THE SLOW OUTLIER AND THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS/SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOLLOWED - BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MO
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90, WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
AND H85 DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ALONG WITH FAVORABLY DEEP LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONTENT /PWS NEAR 2
INCHES/ AND OVERALL SLOW WIND SPEEDS ALOFT, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH MULTI-DAY RAINFALL EVENT.

WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST DURING THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES. THESE COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT WAVERING ABOUT THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP. MAINLY
VFR FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY, SO SEE NO
REASON WHY SOME OVERNIGHT/MORNING MVFR FOG/HAZE WILL NOT FORM
AGAIN. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WIND KICKING IN SUNDAY MAY PREVENT THAT
DOWN THE ROAD. OTHERSWISE VFR FOR THIS FORECAST.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 042050
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

TRANQUIL NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE AREA WITH PLEASANT EARLY JULY
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY RETREAT EAST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS DEVELOPING. THE CURRENT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING, WHILE SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF A PLAINS SHORTWAVE. OVERALL SKIES WILL RANGE FROM CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUD AND A TAD HAZY, WITH SOME PATCY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

GLASS

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT EAST
WHILE SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ATTENDANT
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCORDINGLY, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER AND
CLOSER TO AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR
TO BE FOCUSED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

THE DRY PERIOD HOWEVER WILL COME TO AN END ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TROFFING ALOFT WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS DIG
EAST SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BRING A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON TIMING WITH THE NAM THE SLOW OUTLIER AND THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS/SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOLLOWED - BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MO
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90, WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
AND H85 DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ALONG WITH FAVORABLY DEEP LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONTENT /PWS NEAR 2
INCHES/ AND OVERALL SLOW WIND SPEEDS ALOFT, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH MULTI-DAY RAINFALL EVENT.

WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST DURING THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES. THESE COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT WAVERING ABOUT THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP. MAINLY
VFR FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY, SO SEE NO
REASON WHY SOME OVERNIGHT/MORNING MVFR FOG/HAZE WILL NOT FORM
AGAIN. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WIND KICKING IN SUNDAY MAY PREVENT THAT
DOWN THE ROAD. OTHERSWISE VFR FOR THIS FORECAST.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 041658
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1158 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TODAY
AND TOMORROW AS 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AND WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF TRAVERSING CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
AND MONDAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS IT BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH MODELS
HINTING AT A SURFACE WAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...COUPLED
WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN...WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS AND
WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO. THE LATEST
ECWMF PAINTS A SWATH OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI AND I-70 CORRIDOR IN ILLINOIS NEXT WEEK WHICH
WOULD ONLY AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

MODEL GUIDANCE GIVES SOME INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT
BACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO
NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
AND ZONAL WHICH IS WHY CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP. MAINLY
VFR FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY, SO SEE NO
REASON WHY SOME OVERNIGHT/MORNING MVFR FOG/HAZE WILL NOT FORM
AGAIN. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WIND KICKING IN SUNDAY MAY PREVENT THAT
DOWN THE ROAD. OTHERSWISE VFR FOR THIS FORECAST.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 041658
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1158 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TODAY
AND TOMORROW AS 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AND WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF TRAVERSING CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
AND MONDAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS IT BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH MODELS
HINTING AT A SURFACE WAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...COUPLED
WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN...WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS AND
WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO. THE LATEST
ECWMF PAINTS A SWATH OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI AND I-70 CORRIDOR IN ILLINOIS NEXT WEEK WHICH
WOULD ONLY AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

MODEL GUIDANCE GIVES SOME INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT
BACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO
NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
AND ZONAL WHICH IS WHY CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP. MAINLY
VFR FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY, SO SEE NO
REASON WHY SOME OVERNIGHT/MORNING MVFR FOG/HAZE WILL NOT FORM
AGAIN. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WIND KICKING IN SUNDAY MAY PREVENT THAT
DOWN THE ROAD. OTHERSWISE VFR FOR THIS FORECAST.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 041157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
657 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TODAY
AND TOMORROW AS 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AND WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF TRAVERSING CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
AND MONDAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS IT BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH MODELS
HINTING AT A SURFACE WAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...COUPLED
WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN...WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS AND
WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO. THE LATEST
ECWMF PAINTS A SWATH OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI AND I-70 CORRIDOR IN ILLINOIS NEXT WEEK WHICH
WOULD ONLY AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

MODEL GUIDANCE GIVES SOME INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT
BACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO
NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
AND ZONAL WHICH IS WHY CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: IFR TO MVFR FOG ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
BEGIN TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: IFR TO MVFR FOG ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SMOKE FROM INDEPENDENCE DAY
FIREWORKS IN THE METRO AREA MAY BE SLOW TO MIX OUT TONIGHT AND
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO HAZE AT METRO AREA TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY AFTER
05/02Z.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 041157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
657 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TODAY
AND TOMORROW AS 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AND WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF TRAVERSING CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
AND MONDAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS IT BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH MODELS
HINTING AT A SURFACE WAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...COUPLED
WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN...WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS AND
WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO. THE LATEST
ECWMF PAINTS A SWATH OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI AND I-70 CORRIDOR IN ILLINOIS NEXT WEEK WHICH
WOULD ONLY AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

MODEL GUIDANCE GIVES SOME INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT
BACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO
NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
AND ZONAL WHICH IS WHY CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: IFR TO MVFR FOG ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
BEGIN TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: IFR TO MVFR FOG ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SMOKE FROM INDEPENDENCE DAY
FIREWORKS IN THE METRO AREA MAY BE SLOW TO MIX OUT TONIGHT AND
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO HAZE AT METRO AREA TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY AFTER
05/02Z.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 041157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
657 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TODAY
AND TOMORROW AS 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AND WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF TRAVERSING CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
AND MONDAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS IT BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH MODELS
HINTING AT A SURFACE WAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...COUPLED
WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN...WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS AND
WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO. THE LATEST
ECWMF PAINTS A SWATH OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI AND I-70 CORRIDOR IN ILLINOIS NEXT WEEK WHICH
WOULD ONLY AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

MODEL GUIDANCE GIVES SOME INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT
BACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO
NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
AND ZONAL WHICH IS WHY CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: IFR TO MVFR FOG ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
BEGIN TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: IFR TO MVFR FOG ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SMOKE FROM INDEPENDENCE DAY
FIREWORKS IN THE METRO AREA MAY BE SLOW TO MIX OUT TONIGHT AND
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO HAZE AT METRO AREA TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY AFTER
05/02Z.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 041157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
657 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TODAY
AND TOMORROW AS 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AND WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF TRAVERSING CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
AND MONDAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS IT BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH MODELS
HINTING AT A SURFACE WAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...COUPLED
WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN...WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS AND
WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO. THE LATEST
ECWMF PAINTS A SWATH OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI AND I-70 CORRIDOR IN ILLINOIS NEXT WEEK WHICH
WOULD ONLY AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

MODEL GUIDANCE GIVES SOME INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT
BACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO
NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
AND ZONAL WHICH IS WHY CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: IFR TO MVFR FOG ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
BEGIN TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: IFR TO MVFR FOG ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SMOKE FROM INDEPENDENCE DAY
FIREWORKS IN THE METRO AREA MAY BE SLOW TO MIX OUT TONIGHT AND
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO HAZE AT METRO AREA TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY AFTER
05/02Z.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 040733
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
233 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TODAY
AND TOMORROW AS 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AND WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF TRAVERSING CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
AND MONDAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS IT BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH MODELS
HINTING AT A SURFACE WAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...COUPLED
WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN...WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS AND
WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO. THE LATEST
ECWMF PAINTS A SWATH OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI AND I-70 CORRIDOR IN ILLINOIS NEXT WEEK WHICH
WOULD ONLY AGGREVATE ONGOING FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

MODEL GUIDANCE GIVES SOME INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT
BACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO
NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
AND ZONAL WHICH IS WHY CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THINK MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT MVFR AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED IFR FOG IS
ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. EXPECT THIS AREA OF FOG TO BECOME MORE
PREVALENT ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL. NOT SURE HOW LOW IT
WILL GET...IFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE...BUT I THINK IT MOST LIKELY
WON`T GET BELOW 3SM. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER SUNRISE AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF
THE DAY.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 040733
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
233 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TODAY
AND TOMORROW AS 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AND WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF TRAVERSING CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
AND MONDAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS IT BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH MODELS
HINTING AT A SURFACE WAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...COUPLED
WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN...WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS AND
WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO. THE LATEST
ECWMF PAINTS A SWATH OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI AND I-70 CORRIDOR IN ILLINOIS NEXT WEEK WHICH
WOULD ONLY AGGREVATE ONGOING FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

MODEL GUIDANCE GIVES SOME INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT
BACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO
NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
AND ZONAL WHICH IS WHY CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THINK MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT MVFR AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED IFR FOG IS
ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. EXPECT THIS AREA OF FOG TO BECOME MORE
PREVALENT ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL. NOT SURE HOW LOW IT
WILL GET...IFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE...BUT I THINK IT MOST LIKELY
WON`T GET BELOW 3SM. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER SUNRISE AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF
THE DAY.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 040733
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
233 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TODAY
AND TOMORROW AS 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AND WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF TRAVERSING CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
AND MONDAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS IT BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH MODELS
HINTING AT A SURFACE WAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...COUPLED
WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN...WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS AND
WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO. THE LATEST
ECWMF PAINTS A SWATH OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI AND I-70 CORRIDOR IN ILLINOIS NEXT WEEK WHICH
WOULD ONLY AGGREVATE ONGOING FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

MODEL GUIDANCE GIVES SOME INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT
BACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO
NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
AND ZONAL WHICH IS WHY CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THINK MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT MVFR AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED IFR FOG IS
ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. EXPECT THIS AREA OF FOG TO BECOME MORE
PREVALENT ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL. NOT SURE HOW LOW IT
WILL GET...IFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE...BUT I THINK IT MOST LIKELY
WON`T GET BELOW 3SM. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER SUNRISE AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF
THE DAY.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 040733
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
233 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TODAY
AND TOMORROW AS 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AND WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF TRAVERSING CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
AND MONDAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS IT BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH MODELS
HINTING AT A SURFACE WAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...COUPLED
WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN...WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS AND
WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO. THE LATEST
ECWMF PAINTS A SWATH OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI AND I-70 CORRIDOR IN ILLINOIS NEXT WEEK WHICH
WOULD ONLY AGGREVATE ONGOING FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

MODEL GUIDANCE GIVES SOME INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT
BACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO
NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
AND ZONAL WHICH IS WHY CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THINK MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT MVFR AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED IFR FOG IS
ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. EXPECT THIS AREA OF FOG TO BECOME MORE
PREVALENT ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL. NOT SURE HOW LOW IT
WILL GET...IFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE...BUT I THINK IT MOST LIKELY
WON`T GET BELOW 3SM. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER SUNRISE AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF
THE DAY.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 040459
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1159 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STALL OVER SOUTHEAST MO AND BE A
FOCUS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH THIS IS GETTING MORE
DIFFICULT WITH THE SUN NOW BEING DOWN. THE DIRUNAL CUMULUS CLOUD
FIELD HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED, YIELDING CLEAR SKIES AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GOING
FORECAST.

A RARE DRY DAY STILL ON TAP FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE, WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SETTING IN JUST TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARD
FROM PERSISTENCE, BUT ONLY GRADUALLY UNTIL THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EITHER EXITS OR GREATLY WEAKENS.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE, SKIES TO
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH NEXT SYSTEM TO
APPROACH REGION BY SUNDAY, SO COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.

AS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, BUT COULD SEE RAIN MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS THIS FRONT STALLS OUT OVER REGION. DO
NOT NEED ANYMORE RAIN AFTER RECORD RAINFALL IN JUNE AND FLOODING ON
THE RIVERS STILL ONGOING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MONDAY, BRIEFLY
COOLING OFF INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL, THEN WARM BACK UP INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THINK MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT MVFR AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED IFR FOG IS
ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. EXPECT THIS AREA OF FOG TO BECOME MORE
PREVALENT ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL. NOT SURE HOW LOW IT
WILL GET...IFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE...BUT I THINK IT MOST LIKELY
WON`T GET BELOW 3SM. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER SUNRISE AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF
THE DAY.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 040459
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1159 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STALL OVER SOUTHEAST MO AND BE A
FOCUS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH THIS IS GETTING MORE
DIFFICULT WITH THE SUN NOW BEING DOWN. THE DIRUNAL CUMULUS CLOUD
FIELD HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED, YIELDING CLEAR SKIES AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GOING
FORECAST.

A RARE DRY DAY STILL ON TAP FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE, WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SETTING IN JUST TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARD
FROM PERSISTENCE, BUT ONLY GRADUALLY UNTIL THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EITHER EXITS OR GREATLY WEAKENS.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE, SKIES TO
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH NEXT SYSTEM TO
APPROACH REGION BY SUNDAY, SO COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.

AS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, BUT COULD SEE RAIN MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS THIS FRONT STALLS OUT OVER REGION. DO
NOT NEED ANYMORE RAIN AFTER RECORD RAINFALL IN JUNE AND FLOODING ON
THE RIVERS STILL ONGOING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MONDAY, BRIEFLY
COOLING OFF INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL, THEN WARM BACK UP INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THINK MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT MVFR AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED IFR FOG IS
ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. EXPECT THIS AREA OF FOG TO BECOME MORE
PREVALENT ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL. NOT SURE HOW LOW IT
WILL GET...IFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE...BUT I THINK IT MOST LIKELY
WON`T GET BELOW 3SM. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER SUNRISE AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF
THE DAY.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 040155
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
855 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STALL OVER SOUTHEAST MO AND BE A
FOCUS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH THIS IS GETTING MORE
DIFFICULT WITH THE SUN NOW BEING DOWN. THE DIRUNAL CUMULUS CLOUD
FIELD HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED, YIELDING CLEAR SKIES AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GOING
FORECAST.

A RARE DRY DAY STILL ON TAP FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE, WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SETTING IN JUST TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARD
FROM PERSISTENCE, BUT ONLY GRADUALLY UNTIL THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EITHER EXITS OR GREATLY WEAKENS.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE, SKIES TO
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH NEXT SYSTEM TO
APPROACH REGION BY SUNDAY, SO COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.

AS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, BUT COULD SEE RAIN MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS THIS FRONT STALLS OUT OVER REGION. DO
NOT NEED ANYMORE RAIN AFTER RECORD RAINFALL IN JUNE AND FLOODING ON
THE RIVERS STILL ONGOING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MONDAY, BRIEFLY
COOLING OFF INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL, THEN WARM BACK UP INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTH-
NORTHEAST FLOW. THERE IS A CHANCE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY, BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO PUT
THIS IN THE TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 040155
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
855 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STALL OVER SOUTHEAST MO AND BE A
FOCUS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH THIS IS GETTING MORE
DIFFICULT WITH THE SUN NOW BEING DOWN. THE DIRUNAL CUMULUS CLOUD
FIELD HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED, YIELDING CLEAR SKIES AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GOING
FORECAST.

A RARE DRY DAY STILL ON TAP FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE, WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SETTING IN JUST TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARD
FROM PERSISTENCE, BUT ONLY GRADUALLY UNTIL THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EITHER EXITS OR GREATLY WEAKENS.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE, SKIES TO
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH NEXT SYSTEM TO
APPROACH REGION BY SUNDAY, SO COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.

AS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, BUT COULD SEE RAIN MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS THIS FRONT STALLS OUT OVER REGION. DO
NOT NEED ANYMORE RAIN AFTER RECORD RAINFALL IN JUNE AND FLOODING ON
THE RIVERS STILL ONGOING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MONDAY, BRIEFLY
COOLING OFF INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL, THEN WARM BACK UP INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTH-
NORTHEAST FLOW. THERE IS A CHANCE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY, BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO PUT
THIS IN THE TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 032359
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
659 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE, SKIES TO
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH NEXT SYSTEM TO
APPROACH REGION BY SUNDAY, SO COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.

AS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, BUT COULD SEE RAIN MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS THIS FRONT STALLS OUT OVER REGION. DO
NOT NEED ANYMORE RAIN AFTER RECORD RAINFALL IN JUNE AND FLOODING ON
THE RIVERS STILL ONGOING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MONDAY, BRIEFLY
COOLING OFF INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL, THEN WARM BACK UP INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTH-
NORTHEAST FLOW. THERE IS A CHANCE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY, BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO PUT
THIS IN THE TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 032359
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
659 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE, SKIES TO
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH NEXT SYSTEM TO
APPROACH REGION BY SUNDAY, SO COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.

AS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, BUT COULD SEE RAIN MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS THIS FRONT STALLS OUT OVER REGION. DO
NOT NEED ANYMORE RAIN AFTER RECORD RAINFALL IN JUNE AND FLOODING ON
THE RIVERS STILL ONGOING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MONDAY, BRIEFLY
COOLING OFF INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL, THEN WARM BACK UP INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTH-
NORTHEAST FLOW. THERE IS A CHANCE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY, BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO PUT
THIS IN THE TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 031954
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
254 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE, SKIES TO
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH NEXT SYSTEM TO
APPROACH REGION BY SUNDAY, SO COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.

AS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, BUT COULD SEE RAIN MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS THIS FRONT STALLS OUT OVER REGION. DO
NOT NEED ANYMORE RAIN AFTER RECORD RAINFALL IN JUNE AND FLOODING ON
THE RIVERS STILL ONGOING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MONDAY, BRIEFLY
COOLING OFF INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL, THEN WARM BACK UP INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BYRD
&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DIURNAL CU HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL DISSIPATE NEAR
SUNSET. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY FROM THE ST. LOUIS AREA SOUTH AND
EAST. ODDS OF ANY TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE QUITE LOW AND IF THEY OCCUR
SHOULD BE QUITE BRIEF.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DIURNAL CU HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL DISSIPATE NEAR
SUNSET. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY FROM THE ST. LOUIS AREA SOUTH AND
EAST. ODDS OF ANY TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE QUITE LOW AND IF THEY OCCUR
SHOULD BE QUITE BRIEF.

GLASS
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 031954
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
254 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE, SKIES TO
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH NEXT SYSTEM TO
APPROACH REGION BY SUNDAY, SO COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.

AS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, BUT COULD SEE RAIN MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS THIS FRONT STALLS OUT OVER REGION. DO
NOT NEED ANYMORE RAIN AFTER RECORD RAINFALL IN JUNE AND FLOODING ON
THE RIVERS STILL ONGOING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MONDAY, BRIEFLY
COOLING OFF INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL, THEN WARM BACK UP INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BYRD
&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DIURNAL CU HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL DISSIPATE NEAR
SUNSET. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY FROM THE ST. LOUIS AREA SOUTH AND
EAST. ODDS OF ANY TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE QUITE LOW AND IF THEY OCCUR
SHOULD BE QUITE BRIEF.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DIURNAL CU HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL DISSIPATE NEAR
SUNSET. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY FROM THE ST. LOUIS AREA SOUTH AND
EAST. ODDS OF ANY TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE QUITE LOW AND IF THEY OCCUR
SHOULD BE QUITE BRIEF.

GLASS
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 031954
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
254 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE, SKIES TO
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH NEXT SYSTEM TO
APPROACH REGION BY SUNDAY, SO COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.

AS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, BUT COULD SEE RAIN MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS THIS FRONT STALLS OUT OVER REGION. DO
NOT NEED ANYMORE RAIN AFTER RECORD RAINFALL IN JUNE AND FLOODING ON
THE RIVERS STILL ONGOING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MONDAY, BRIEFLY
COOLING OFF INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL, THEN WARM BACK UP INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BYRD
&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DIURNAL CU HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL DISSIPATE NEAR
SUNSET. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY FROM THE ST. LOUIS AREA SOUTH AND
EAST. ODDS OF ANY TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE QUITE LOW AND IF THEY OCCUR
SHOULD BE QUITE BRIEF.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DIURNAL CU HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL DISSIPATE NEAR
SUNSET. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY FROM THE ST. LOUIS AREA SOUTH AND
EAST. ODDS OF ANY TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE QUITE LOW AND IF THEY OCCUR
SHOULD BE QUITE BRIEF.

GLASS
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 031954
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
254 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE, SKIES TO
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH NEXT SYSTEM TO
APPROACH REGION BY SUNDAY, SO COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.

AS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, BUT COULD SEE RAIN MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS THIS FRONT STALLS OUT OVER REGION. DO
NOT NEED ANYMORE RAIN AFTER RECORD RAINFALL IN JUNE AND FLOODING ON
THE RIVERS STILL ONGOING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MONDAY, BRIEFLY
COOLING OFF INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL, THEN WARM BACK UP INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BYRD
&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DIURNAL CU HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL DISSIPATE NEAR
SUNSET. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY FROM THE ST. LOUIS AREA SOUTH AND
EAST. ODDS OF ANY TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE QUITE LOW AND IF THEY OCCUR
SHOULD BE QUITE BRIEF.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DIURNAL CU HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL DISSIPATE NEAR
SUNSET. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY FROM THE ST. LOUIS AREA SOUTH AND
EAST. ODDS OF ANY TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE QUITE LOW AND IF THEY OCCUR
SHOULD BE QUITE BRIEF.

GLASS
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 031730
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY ROTATE/ADVANCE SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO
RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER WHICH WILL
KEEP GREATEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
THE CWA. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
TODAYS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM A LITTLE INTO THE LOWER AND PERHAPS
MIDDLE 80S AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
APPROACH/MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A MORE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS.
THE FRONT AND CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG IT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
OUR REGION BY MONDAY WITH A WET PERIOD SHAPING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS (MCS) ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AS THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT WELCOME NEWS AS
AREA RIVERS ARE STILL IN FLOOD AND THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED FROM
THE RECORD RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED IN JUNE.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DIURNAL CU HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL DISSIPATE NEAR
SUNSET. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY FROM THE ST. LOUIS AREA SOUTH AND
EAST. ODDS OF ANY TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE QUITE LOW AND IF THEY OCCUR
SHOULD BE QUITE BRIEF.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DIURNAL CU HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL DISSIPATE NEAR
SUNSET. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY FROM THE ST. LOUIS AREA SOUTH AND
EAST. ODDS OF ANY TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE QUITE LOW AND IF THEY OCCUR
SHOULD BE QUITE BRIEF.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 031730
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY ROTATE/ADVANCE SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO
RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER WHICH WILL
KEEP GREATEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
THE CWA. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
TODAYS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM A LITTLE INTO THE LOWER AND PERHAPS
MIDDLE 80S AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
APPROACH/MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A MORE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS.
THE FRONT AND CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG IT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
OUR REGION BY MONDAY WITH A WET PERIOD SHAPING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS (MCS) ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AS THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT WELCOME NEWS AS
AREA RIVERS ARE STILL IN FLOOD AND THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED FROM
THE RECORD RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED IN JUNE.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DIURNAL CU HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL DISSIPATE NEAR
SUNSET. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY FROM THE ST. LOUIS AREA SOUTH AND
EAST. ODDS OF ANY TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE QUITE LOW AND IF THEY OCCUR
SHOULD BE QUITE BRIEF.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DIURNAL CU HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL DISSIPATE NEAR
SUNSET. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY FROM THE ST. LOUIS AREA SOUTH AND
EAST. ODDS OF ANY TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE QUITE LOW AND IF THEY OCCUR
SHOULD BE QUITE BRIEF.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 031214
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
714 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY ROTATE/ADVANCE SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO
RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER WHICH WILL
KEEP GREATEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
THE CWA. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
TODAYS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM A LITTLE INTO THE LOWER AND PERHAPS
MIDDLE 80S AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
APPROACH/MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A MORE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS.
THE FRONT AND CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG IT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
OUR REGION BY MONDAY WITH A WET PERIOD SHAPING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS (MCS) ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AS THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT WELCOME NEWS AS
AREA RIVERS ARE STILL IN FLOOD AND THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED FROM
THE RECORD RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED IN JUNE.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY, BUT THE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS AT
KCOU SHOULD SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT THE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CLOUDS MIX OUT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 031214
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
714 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY ROTATE/ADVANCE SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO
RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER WHICH WILL
KEEP GREATEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
THE CWA. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
TODAYS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM A LITTLE INTO THE LOWER AND PERHAPS
MIDDLE 80S AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
APPROACH/MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A MORE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS.
THE FRONT AND CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG IT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
OUR REGION BY MONDAY WITH A WET PERIOD SHAPING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS (MCS) ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AS THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT WELCOME NEWS AS
AREA RIVERS ARE STILL IN FLOOD AND THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED FROM
THE RECORD RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED IN JUNE.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY, BUT THE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS AT
KCOU SHOULD SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT THE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CLOUDS MIX OUT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 031214
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
714 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY ROTATE/ADVANCE SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO
RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER WHICH WILL
KEEP GREATEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
THE CWA. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
TODAYS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM A LITTLE INTO THE LOWER AND PERHAPS
MIDDLE 80S AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
APPROACH/MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A MORE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS.
THE FRONT AND CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG IT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
OUR REGION BY MONDAY WITH A WET PERIOD SHAPING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS (MCS) ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AS THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT WELCOME NEWS AS
AREA RIVERS ARE STILL IN FLOOD AND THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED FROM
THE RECORD RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED IN JUNE.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY, BUT THE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS AT
KCOU SHOULD SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT THE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CLOUDS MIX OUT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 031214
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
714 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY ROTATE/ADVANCE SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO
RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER WHICH WILL
KEEP GREATEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
THE CWA. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
TODAYS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM A LITTLE INTO THE LOWER AND PERHAPS
MIDDLE 80S AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
APPROACH/MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A MORE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS.
THE FRONT AND CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG IT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
OUR REGION BY MONDAY WITH A WET PERIOD SHAPING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS (MCS) ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AS THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT WELCOME NEWS AS
AREA RIVERS ARE STILL IN FLOOD AND THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED FROM
THE RECORD RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED IN JUNE.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY, BUT THE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS AT
KCOU SHOULD SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT THE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CLOUDS MIX OUT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 030718
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
218 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY ROTATE/ADVANCE SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO
RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER WHICH WILL
KEEP GREATEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
THE CWA. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
TODAYS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM A LITTLE INTO THE LOWER AND PERHAPS
MIDDLE 80S AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
APPROACH/MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A MORE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS.
THE FRONT AND CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG IT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
OUR REGION BY MONDAY WITH A WET PERIOD SHAPING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS (MCS) ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AS THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT WELCOME NEWS AS
AREA RIVERS ARE STILL IN FLOOD AND THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED FROM
THE RECORD RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED IN JUNE.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SEEING MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR LOWERING CEILINGS
BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CEILINGS SHOULD DROP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO
BETWEEN 1000-2000 FT. ADDITIONALLY...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. DON`T EXPECT THE
RAIN TO GET HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CEILINGS
SHOULD RISE AND SCATTER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

EXPECT MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE TERMINAL
SOMETIME BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. AM NOT AS CONFIDENT ON
TIMING, BUT MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE CEILINGS
FALLING TO BETWEEN 1000-2000 FT BY 10-11Z. ADDITIONALLY...SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. DON`T
EXPECT THE RAIN TO GET HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT FLIGHT CONDITIONS IF
ONE OF THESE SHOWERS MOVES OVER LAMBERT. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE AND
SCATTER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARNEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     82  67  83  69 /  20  10  10  10
QUINCY          79  62  81  65 /  10  10  10   5
COLUMBIA        80  61  82  66 /  20  10  10   5
JEFFERSON CITY  81  61  83  66 /  20  10  10   5
SALEM           81  65  82  66 /  20  10  10  10
FARMINGTON      80  63  81  65 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 030458
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1158 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
CAN BE EXPECTED.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BY
SUNDAY.

THEN NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT COULD SEE RAIN MOST DAYS
NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SEEING MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR LOWERING CEILINGS
BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CEILINGS SHOULD DROP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO
BETWEEN 1000-2000 FT. ADDITIONALLY...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. DON`T EXPECT THE
RAIN TO GET HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CEILINGS
SHOULD RISE AND SCATTER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

EXPECT MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE TERMINAL
SOMETIME BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. AM NOT AS CONFIDENT ON
TIMING, BUT MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE CEILINGS
FALLING TO BETWEEN 1000-2000 FT BY 10-11Z. ADDITIONALLY...SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. DON`T
EXPECT THE RAIN TO GET HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT FLIGHT CONDITIONS IF
ONE OF THESE SHOWERS MOVES OVER LAMBERT. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE AND
SCATTER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 030458
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1158 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
CAN BE EXPECTED.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BY
SUNDAY.

THEN NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT COULD SEE RAIN MOST DAYS
NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SEEING MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR LOWERING CEILINGS
BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CEILINGS SHOULD DROP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO
BETWEEN 1000-2000 FT. ADDITIONALLY...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. DON`T EXPECT THE
RAIN TO GET HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CEILINGS
SHOULD RISE AND SCATTER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

EXPECT MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE TERMINAL
SOMETIME BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. AM NOT AS CONFIDENT ON
TIMING, BUT MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE CEILINGS
FALLING TO BETWEEN 1000-2000 FT BY 10-11Z. ADDITIONALLY...SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. DON`T
EXPECT THE RAIN TO GET HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT FLIGHT CONDITIONS IF
ONE OF THESE SHOWERS MOVES OVER LAMBERT. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE AND
SCATTER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 030002
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
702 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
CAN BE EXPECTED.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BY
SUNDAY.

THEN NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT COULD SEE RAIN MOST DAYS
NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70/I-64 CORRIDORS IN MO AND
IL RESPECTIVELY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP AND SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS ARE SENDING MIXED
SIGNALS TONIGHT FOR CEILINGS. SOME KEEP THE AREA VFR FOR MOST OF
IF NOT ALL NIGHT...WHILE OTHERS REDEVELOP LOW END MVFR AND EVEN
IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN
EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
GOING TAFS WHICH ARE PRETTY PESIMISTIC EXCEPT FOR KUIN. WOULD LIKE
TO SEE A LITTLE MORE MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE I MAKE WHOLESALE
CHANGES TO THE TAFS. ANY LOW CEILINGS THAT DO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
SHOULD THIN AND SCATTER OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING. AM LESS
CONFIDENT ABOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THOUGH. MODELS ARE SENDING MIXED
SIGNALS TONIGHT FOR CEILINGS. SOME KEEP THE AREA VFR FOR MOST OF
IF NOT ALL NIGHT...WHILE OTHERS REDEVELOP LOW END MVFR AND EVEN
IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN
EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
GOING TAF. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE
I MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES. EXPECT THAT ANY LOW CEILINGS THAT DO
DEVELOP SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 030002
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
702 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
CAN BE EXPECTED.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BY
SUNDAY.

THEN NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT COULD SEE RAIN MOST DAYS
NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70/I-64 CORRIDORS IN MO AND
IL RESPECTIVELY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP AND SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS ARE SENDING MIXED
SIGNALS TONIGHT FOR CEILINGS. SOME KEEP THE AREA VFR FOR MOST OF
IF NOT ALL NIGHT...WHILE OTHERS REDEVELOP LOW END MVFR AND EVEN
IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN
EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
GOING TAFS WHICH ARE PRETTY PESIMISTIC EXCEPT FOR KUIN. WOULD LIKE
TO SEE A LITTLE MORE MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE I MAKE WHOLESALE
CHANGES TO THE TAFS. ANY LOW CEILINGS THAT DO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
SHOULD THIN AND SCATTER OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING. AM LESS
CONFIDENT ABOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THOUGH. MODELS ARE SENDING MIXED
SIGNALS TONIGHT FOR CEILINGS. SOME KEEP THE AREA VFR FOR MOST OF
IF NOT ALL NIGHT...WHILE OTHERS REDEVELOP LOW END MVFR AND EVEN
IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN
EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
GOING TAF. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE
I MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES. EXPECT THAT ANY LOW CEILINGS THAT DO
DEVELOP SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




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