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000
FXUS63 KLSX 241145
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
645 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Weak shortwave will round periphery of mid/upper ridge with main impact
being an increase in high-level cloudiness for portions of the area.
At the sfc...a weak frontal boundary will approach northwestern sections
of the CWFA by 0000 UTC Saturday. At this time...no wet weather is
expected to accompany this frontal boundary. Temperatures will continue
on the upswing with highs back above average ranging from the upper
60s over south-central Illinois to low/mid 70s for portions of central...
east-central...and southeastern Missouri.


Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014


(Tonight - Monday)

Aforementioned frontal boundary is progged to move through the rest of
the CWA overnight tonight with little fanfare other than a subtle wind
shift from the southwest to the west/northwest. With light winds and
clearing skies behind boundary and associated shortwave trough...did
lean a bit toward cooler NWP guidance with lows mainly in the 50s across
the area.

The Saturday through Monday period will be characterized by well-above
normal temperatures as upper-level ridging builds overhead and 850-hPa
thermal ridge advects toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. Have upped highs
quite a bit from previous forecast into the 70s/80s areawide or some
10-20 degrees above normal. Lows will also follow suit and get progressively
warmer. All in all...dry and unseasonably warm will be the rule with
record or near-record high and/or high low temperatures possible.


(Monday Night - Thursday)

A cold front will move through the area on Monday night with medium-ranged
guidance in very good agreement with fropa timing and associated rain
chances. This front should bring a fairly good chance of showers with
thunder also possible. Instability looks almost non-existent however due
to low-leevl ridging preventing Gulf moisture from streaming northward.
However...did leave mention of thunder in the grids as believe there
should be at least some meager instability...if nothing else due to the
very anomalous sfc temps. This front will also finally move out the
unseasonably warm temperatures and usher in daytime highs and nighttime
lows much closer to seasonal norms for late October. Highs are expected
to be back in the 60s with lows in the 40s Tuesday through Thursday along
with dry weather conditions.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

FG will be slow to burn off this morning, but shud gradually lift
to become ST before breaking up. Timing is still somewhat
questionable, but will update as needed. VFR conditions are then
expected thru much of the evening. An approaching cdfnt will shift
the winds to the NW, but will remain light. FG is expected once
again tonight. Timing and locations are still uncertain, but
confidence is high enuf to lower vsbys into low MVFR range.

Specifics for KSTL: Mainly VFR conditions are expected thru the
day. However, patches of MVFR cigs may briefly impact the terminal
this morning. Otherwise, winds are expected to remain light with
FG possible around sunrise Sat morning. Have not mentioned in TAF
attm due to uncertainty.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR Audrain MO-
     Boone MO-Callaway MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-
     Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR Adams IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 240836
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
336 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Weak shortwave will round periphery of mid/upper ridge with main impact
being an increase in high-level cloudiness for portions of the area.
At the sfc...a weak frontal boundary will approach northwestern sections
of the CWFA by 0000 UTC Saturday. At this time...no wet weather is
expected to accompany this frontal boundary. Temperatures will continue
on the upswing with highs back above average ranging from the upper
60s over south-central Illinois to low/mid 70s for portions of central...
east-central...and southeastern Missouri.


Gosselin


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014


(Tonight - Monday)

Aforementioned frontal boundary is progged to move through the rest of
the CWA overnight tonight with little fanfare other than a subtle wind
shift from the southwest to the west/northwest. With light winds and
clearing skies behind boundary and associated shortwave trough...did
lean a bit toward cooler NWP guidance with lows mainly in the 50s across
the area.

The Saturday through Monday period will be characterized by well-above
normal temperatures as upper-level ridging builds overhead and 850-hPa
thermal ridge advects toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. Have upped highs
quite a bit from previous forecast into the 70s/80s areawide or some
10-20 degrees above normal. Lows will also follow suit and get progressively
warmer. All in all...dry and unseasonably warm will be the rule with
record or near-record high and/or high low temperatures possible.


(Monday Night - Thursday)

A cold front will move through the area on Monday night with medium-ranged
guidance in very good agreement with fropa timing and associated rain
chances. This front should bring a fairly good chance of showers with
thunder also possible. Instability looks almost non-existent however due
to low-leevl ridging preventing Gulf moisture from streaming northward.
However...did leave mention of thunder in the grids as believe there
should be at least some meager instability...if nothing else due to the
very anomalous sfc temps. This front will also finally move out the
unseasonably warm temperatures and usher in daytime highs and nighttime
lows much closer to seasonal norms for late October. Highs are expected
to be back in the 60s with lows in the 40s Tuesday through Thursday along
with dry weather conditions.


Gosselin


&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

A band of clouds around 3000-5000 feet was moving southeastward
through the taf sites this evening. Behind it partial clearing was
leading to the development of patchy stratus and fog.  Additional
development of stratus clouds and fog can be expected late
tonight with the models depicting plenty of boundary layer
moisture. These low level clouds and fog will dissipate by late
Friday morning. A swly surface wind can be expected late tonight
and Friday.

Specifics for KSTL: Stratus clouds and fog will develop late
tonight with MVFR conditions. These low level, MVFR clouds and fog will
dissipate by late Friday morning. Light sly surface wind will veer
around to a swly direction late tonight, then back around to a
sly direction again late Friday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     73  59  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          68  54  75  50 /   5   0   0   0
Columbia        73  56  79  58 /   5   0   0   0
Jefferson City  74  56  80  55 /   5   0   0   0
Salem           69  53  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Farmington      72  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 240434
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1134 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Shortwave trough responsible for the isolated light showers
currently over the northern part of the CWA will be pushing east of
the area early this evening.  Will go dry tonight as any remaining
rain shouldn`t be more than just sprinkles.  The models show that
there will be enough low level moisture for low clouds and some fog
to develop over central and northeast Missouri as well as west
central Illinois after midnight that will last past sunrise Friday
morning.  Have added mention of patchy/areas of fog to account for
this.  Went with lows close to current dewpoints.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

(Friday through Sunday )

Still looks like this will be a dry period with above normal
temperatures.  Weak trough will move across Missouri and Illinois
tomorrow, though moisture will be too limited in northwest flow to
provide any rain chances.  Still expect temperatures to climb above
normal as winds turn out of the southwest ahead of cold front that
will move through the area early on Saturday.  Even though the cold
front will move through early in the day, highs should be well into
the 70s on Saturday as 850mb temperatures climb into the mid teens
Celsius under mostly clear skies.  Temperatures should be similar on
Sunday as the surface high moves off the the east with clear skies.

(Monday through next Thursday)

Will keep the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms going
over the area from Monday night into Tuesday as both the GFS and
ECMWF show a trough and an attendant cold front moving across the
region during this time frame.  While there are some minor
differences with depth and speed of the trough, do not think these
will affect timing of this system.  Highs on Monday should be once
again be well above normal ahead the cold front, but then cool down
on Tuesday with passage of the cold front.  Wednesday and Thursday
will see highs closer to normal with cold air advection behind the
front and 5-10C 850mb temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

A band of clouds around 3000-5000 feet was moving southeastward
through the taf sites this evening. Behind it partial clearing was
leading to the development of patchy stratus and fog.  Additional
development of stratus clouds and fog can be expected late
tonight with the models depicting plenty of boundary layer
moisture. These low level clouds and fog will dissipate by late
Friday morning. A swly surface wind can be expected late tonight
and Friday.

Specifics for KSTL: Stratus clouds and fog will develop late
tonight with MVFR conditions. These low level, MVFR clouds and fog will
dissipate by late Friday morning. Light sly surface wind will veer
around to a swly direction late tonight, then back around to a
sly direction again late Friday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 232251
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
551 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Shortwave trough responsible for the isolated light showers
currently over the northern part of the CWA will be pushing east of
the area early this evening.  Will go dry tonight as any remaining
rain shouldn`t be more than just sprinkles.  The models show that
there will be enough low level moisture for low clouds and some fog
to develop over central and northeast Missouri as well as west
central Illinois after midnight that will last past sunrise Friday
morning.  Have added mention of patchy/areas of fog to account for
this.  Went with lows close to current dewpoints.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

(Friday through Sunday )

Still looks like this will be a dry period with above normal
temperatures.  Weak trough will move across Missouri and Illinois
tomorrow, though moisture will be too limited in northwest flow to
provide any rain chances.  Still expect temperatures to climb above
normal as winds turn out of the southwest ahead of cold front that
will move through the area early on Saturday.  Even though the cold
front will move through early in the day, highs should be well into
the 70s on Saturday as 850mb temperatures climb into the mid teens
Celsius under mostly clear skies.  Temperatures should be similar on
Sunday as the surface high moves off the the east with clear skies.

(Monday through next Thursday)

Will keep the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms going
over the area from Monday night into Tuesday as both the GFS and
ECMWF show a trough and an attendant cold front moving across the
region during this time frame.  While there are some minor
differences with depth and speed of the trough, do not think these
will affect timing of this system.  Highs on Monday should be once
again be well above normal ahead the cold front, but then cool down
on Tuesday with passage of the cold front.  Wednesday and Thursday
will see highs closer to normal with cold air advection behind the
front and 5-10C 850mb temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 519 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Although the mid-high level cloudiness will advect e-se of the
taf sites this evening as the upper level trough shifts e-se of
the area, there was an area of low level, MVFR cloudiness along a
dissipating cool front/surface trough from DMO northeast through
IRK which will advect southeastward into the taf sites tonight.
There may also be some additional development of stratuc clouds
and fog late tonight with the models depicting plenty of boundary
layer moisture. These low level clouds and fog will dissipate by
late Friday morning. The sly surface wind will veer around to a
swly direction later this evening, albeit the wind speed will be
light.

Specifics for KSTL: Low level cloudiness will advect into STL
later this evening along with the development of some stratus
clouds and fog late tonight. These low level, MVFR clouds and fog
will dissipate by late Friday morning. Light sly surface wind will
veer around to a swly direction later tonight, then back around to
a sly direction again late Friday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 232036
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
336 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Shortwave trough responsible for the isolated light showers
currently over the northern part of the CWA will be pushing east of
the area early this evening.  Will go dry tonight as any remaining
rain shouldn`t be more than just sprinkles.  The models show that
there will be enough low level moisture for low clouds and some fog
to develop over central and northeast Missouri as well as west
central Illinois after midnight that will last past sunrise Friday
morning.  Have added mention of patchy/areas of fog to account for
this.  Went with lows close to current dewpoints.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

(Friday through Sunday )

Still looks like this will be a dry period with above normal
temperatures.  Weak trough will move across Missouri and Illinois
tomorrow, though moisture will be too limited in northwest flow to
provide any rain chances.  Still expect temperatures to climb above
normal as winds turn out of the southwest ahead of cold front that
will move through the area early on Saturday.  Even though the cold
front will move through early in the day, highs should be well into
the 70s on Saturday as 850mb temperatures climb into the mid teens
Celsius under mostly clear skies.  Temperatures should be similar on
Sunday as the surface high moves off the the east with clear skies.

(Monday through next Thursday)

Will keep the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms going
over the area from Monday night into Tuesday as both the GFS and
ECMWF show a trough and an attendant cold front moving across the
region during this time frame.  While there are some minor
differences with depth and speed of the trough, do not think these
will affect timing of this system.  Highs on Monday should be once
again be well above normal ahead the cold front, but then cool down
on Tuesday with passage of the cold front.  Wednesday and Thursday
will see highs closer to normal with cold air advection behind the
front and 5-10C 850mb temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Rain showers having a real tough time moving east due to dry air
in lower levels. That being said, I can`t rule out a sprinkle or
brief shower at KCOU or KUIN this afternoon. Otherwise, low level
moisture will be on the increase later this evening and overnight
as southerly flow continues. This should lead to some MVFR
conditions in both the ceiling and visibility category overnight.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions expected until later tonight when MVFR ceiling will
develop and fog may reduce visibility to 5SM. Scattering of cloud
cover is expected on Friday with a continued light southerly wind.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX









000
FXUS63 KLSX 231742
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Broad N-S band of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of plains
shortwave currently stretch from western IA, through nw MO, into se
KS, and the primary forecast question for today is how far east this
rain will get.   Strong ridging with very dry low level air remains
locked in place from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley by storm
system working its way up the east coast, and this will certainly
inhibit any substantial increase in lower tropospheric moisture.
Believe that the combination of shortwave energy, moisture
advection, and isentropic ascent will cause upstream showers to work
work into our far nw counties this morning, with this precip then
struggling eastward during the day and "withering on the vine" from
central MO into west central IL during the afternoon hours as
shortwave outruns the limited low level moisture return and
encounters much drier air.  Still working on fine-tuning the
details, but at this time planning to limit any mention of precip to
areas northwest of a Cuba-St Louis-Hillsboro line, with highest PoPs
just east of Kirksville.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

(Tonight through Saturday)

With no precip anticipated, focus thru this period will be temps.

Mdls are in good agreement with upper trof moving E of the region
overnight and swly flow at the sfc returning ahead of the next
cdfnt. This cdfnt is progd to push thru Sat morning, which may
require adjustments to temps on Sat with future updates.

With clouds expected to clear late tonight, have trended twd the
cooler guidance for tonight. With the thermal ridge advecting into
the region for Fri, have trended twd the warmer guidance. Similar
trends for Fri night with swly flow continuing overnight. Sat has
some forecast challenge with fropa expected in the morning. With
full insolation expected, have trended twd the warmer guidance even
with a nwly flow.

(Sunday through Wednesday)

Focus turns to precip chances on Tues.

23/00z mdls are in generally good agreement thru Tues morning, tho
the GEM is faster with the upper trof ejecting into the Plains. Have
focused PoPs on Mon night and Tues when the ECMWF/GFS have come into
better agreement. However, the 00z solns are somewhat different from
the prev 12z solns. Therefore, have still kept PoPs on the lower
side for now until a persistent signal is given.


Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Rain showers having a real tough time moving east due to dry air
in lower levels. That being said, I can`t rule out a sprinkle or
brief shower at KCOU or KUIN this afternoon. Otherwise, low level
moisture will be on the increase later this evening and overnight
as southerly flow continues. This should lead to some MVFR
conditions in both the ceiling and visibility category overnight.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions expected until later tonight when MVFR ceiling will
develop and fog may reduce visibility to 5SM. Scattering of cloud
cover is expected on Friday with a continued light southerly wind.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 231742
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Broad N-S band of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of plains
shortwave currently stretch from western IA, through nw MO, into se
KS, and the primary forecast question for today is how far east this
rain will get.   Strong ridging with very dry low level air remains
locked in place from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley by storm
system working its way up the east coast, and this will certainly
inhibit any substantial increase in lower tropospheric moisture.
Believe that the combination of shortwave energy, moisture
advection, and isentropic ascent will cause upstream showers to work
work into our far nw counties this morning, with this precip then
struggling eastward during the day and "withering on the vine" from
central MO into west central IL during the afternoon hours as
shortwave outruns the limited low level moisture return and
encounters much drier air.  Still working on fine-tuning the
details, but at this time planning to limit any mention of precip to
areas northwest of a Cuba-St Louis-Hillsboro line, with highest PoPs
just east of Kirksville.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

(Tonight through Saturday)

With no precip anticipated, focus thru this period will be temps.

Mdls are in good agreement with upper trof moving E of the region
overnight and swly flow at the sfc returning ahead of the next
cdfnt. This cdfnt is progd to push thru Sat morning, which may
require adjustments to temps on Sat with future updates.

With clouds expected to clear late tonight, have trended twd the
cooler guidance for tonight. With the thermal ridge advecting into
the region for Fri, have trended twd the warmer guidance. Similar
trends for Fri night with swly flow continuing overnight. Sat has
some forecast challenge with fropa expected in the morning. With
full insolation expected, have trended twd the warmer guidance even
with a nwly flow.

(Sunday through Wednesday)

Focus turns to precip chances on Tues.

23/00z mdls are in generally good agreement thru Tues morning, tho
the GEM is faster with the upper trof ejecting into the Plains. Have
focused PoPs on Mon night and Tues when the ECMWF/GFS have come into
better agreement. However, the 00z solns are somewhat different from
the prev 12z solns. Therefore, have still kept PoPs on the lower
side for now until a persistent signal is given.


Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Rain showers having a real tough time moving east due to dry air
in lower levels. That being said, I can`t rule out a sprinkle or
brief shower at KCOU or KUIN this afternoon. Otherwise, low level
moisture will be on the increase later this evening and overnight
as southerly flow continues. This should lead to some MVFR
conditions in both the ceiling and visibility category overnight.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions expected until later tonight when MVFR ceiling will
develop and fog may reduce visibility to 5SM. Scattering of cloud
cover is expected on Friday with a continued light southerly wind.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 231217
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
717 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Broad N-S band of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of plains
shortwave currently stretch from western IA, through nw MO, into se
KS, and the primary forecast question for today is how far east this
rain will get.   Strong ridging with very dry low level air remains
locked in place from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley by storm
system working its way up the east coast, and this will certainly
inhibit any substantial increase in lower tropospheric moisture.
Believe that the combination of shortwave energy, moisture
advection, and isentropic ascent will cause upstream showers to work
work into our far nw counties this morning, with this precip then
struggling eastward during the day and "withering on the vine" from
central MO into west central IL during the afternoon hours as
shortwave outruns the limited low level moisture return and
encounters much drier air.  Still working on fine-tuning the
details, but at this time planning to limit any mention of precip to
areas northwest of a Cuba-St Louis-Hillsboro line, with highest PoPs
just east of Kirksville.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

(Tonight through Saturday)

With no precip anticipated, focus thru this period will be temps.

Mdls are in good agreement with upper trof moving E of the region
overnight and swly flow at the sfc returning ahead of the next
cdfnt. This cdfnt is progd to push thru Sat morning, which may
require adjustments to temps on Sat with future updates.

With clouds expected to clear late tonight, have trended twd the
cooler guidance for tonight. With the thermal ridge advecting into
the region for Fri, have trended twd the warmer guidance. Similar
trends for Fri night with swly flow continuing overnight. Sat has
some forecast challenge with fropa expected in the morning. With
full insolation expected, have trended twd the warmer guidance even
with a nwly flow.

(Sunday through Wednesday)

Focus turns to precip chances on Tues.

23/00z mdls are in generally good agreement thru Tues morning, tho
the GEM is faster with the upper trof ejecting into the Plains. Have
focused PoPs on Mon night and Tues when the ECMWF/GFS have come into
better agreement. However, the 00z solns are somewhat different from
the prev 12z solns. Therefore, have still kept PoPs on the lower
side for now until a persistent signal is given.


Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Although broad area of WAA has produced some lowering of VFR
ceilings over western and northern MO, low level flow originating
from surface ridge over the Ohio Valley will continue to pump very
dry low level air (aob 3kft) into the FA throughout the day. While
increasing mid and high level moisture will lead to a general
increase in clouds from west to east during the day, this lower
level dry air should prevent ceilings from dropping below the VFR
category, and also cause the area of showers currently west of the
FA to struggle to spread east during the day. Showers have made
very little eastward progression so far this morning, and based on
this trend have opted to leave out mention of showers at all
locations at this time, and will let oncoming shift nowcast this
low-impact threat. Passage of shortwave and breakdown of the warm
advection should cause moisture to stratify and clouds to thin
heading into the evening, but subtle increase in surface dewpoints
may also lead to some predawn fog. All of the available MOS output
suggests some vsby restrictions after 06z, and have introduced
some MVFR vsbys at all location during the predawn hours with the
thinking that these trends will be fine-tuned by later shifts.

Specifics for KSTL: Clouds aoa 5kft will impact the area today and
into the evening. A few afternoon showers cannot totally be ruled
out, but at this point coverage is expected to be so spotty in the
metro area that the mention has been omitted from the forecast at
this time. However, did follow MOS trends of bringing in some MVFR
fog late tonight due to subtle increase in surface dewpoints.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 230815
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
315 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Broad N-S band of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of plains
shortwave currently stretch from western IA, through nw MO, into se
KS, and the primary forecast question for today is how far east this
rain will get.   Strong ridging with very dry low level air remains
locked in place from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley by storm
system working its way up the east coast, and this will certainly
inhibit any substantial increase in lower tropospheric moisture.
Believe that the combination of shortwave energy, moisture
advection, and isentropic ascent will cause upstream showers to work
work into our far nw counties this morning, with this precip then
struggling eastward during the day and "withering on the vine" from
central MO into west central IL during the afternoon hours as
shortwave outruns the limited low level moisture return and
encounters much drier air.  Still working on fine-tuning the
details, but at this time planning to limit any mention of precip to
areas northwest of a Cuba-St Louis-Hillsboro line, with highest PoPs
just east of Kirksville.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

(Tonight through Saturday)

With no precip anticipated, focus thru this period will be temps.

Mdls are in good agreement with upper trof moving E of the region
overnight and swly flow at the sfc returning ahead of the next
cdfnt. This cdfnt is progd to push thru Sat morning, which may
require adjustments to temps on Sat with future updates.

With clouds expected to clear late tonight, have trended twd the
cooler guidance for tonight. With the thermal ridge advecting into
the region for Fri, have trended twd the warmer guidance. Similar
trends for Fri night with swly flow continuing overnight. Sat has
some forecast challenge with fropa expected in the morning. With
full insolation expected, have trended twd the warmer guidance even
with a nwly flow.

(Sunday through Wednesday)

Focus turns to precip chances on Tues.

23/00z mdls are in generally good agreement thru Tues morning, tho
the GEM is faster with the upper trof ejecting into the Plains. Have
focused PoPs on Mon night and Tues when the ECMWF/GFS have come into
better agreement. However, the 00z solns are somewhat different from
the prev 12z solns. Therefore, have still kept PoPs on the lower
side for now until a persistent signal is given.


Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Surface ridge extending from MI southwest through southeast MO
will shift slowly southeastward this period. An upper level
disturbance and associated weakening cool front/surface trough
will move eastward through the region on Thursday. Most of the
precipitation associated with this feature will be n-nw of the taf
sites, although UIN may receive a brief shower late Thursday
morning or early afternoon. For now will include mainly mid-high
level cloudiness in the tafs for Thursday. The NAM MOS guidance
appears a little overdone on its low level cloud forecast. Could
not rule out a little fog in SUS and CPS late tonight with only a
little cirrus cloudiness and calm surface wind. E-sely surface
winds will veer around to a sly direction Thursday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level cloudiness will advect into the
STL area on Thursday. Any significant rain should remain n-nw of
STL. A light e-sely surface wind late tonight will gradually veer
around to a sly direction Thursday morning, and eventually to a
swly direction Thursday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  52  74  58 /  10   5   0   0
Quincy          63  50  72  53 /  20  10   0   0
Columbia        67  51  75  56 /  20   5   0   0
Jefferson City  69  51  77  55 /  20   5   0   0
Salem           65  49  71  54 /  10  10   0   0
Farmington      64  46  73  54 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX









000
FXUS63 KLSX 230815
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
315 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Broad N-S band of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of plains
shortwave currently stretch from western IA, through nw MO, into se
KS, and the primary forecast question for today is how far east this
rain will get.   Strong ridging with very dry low level air remains
locked in place from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley by storm
system working its way up the east coast, and this will certainly
inhibit any substantial increase in lower tropospheric moisture.
Believe that the combination of shortwave energy, moisture
advection, and isentropic ascent will cause upstream showers to work
work into our far nw counties this morning, with this precip then
struggling eastward during the day and "withering on the vine" from
central MO into west central IL during the afternoon hours as
shortwave outruns the limited low level moisture return and
encounters much drier air.  Still working on fine-tuning the
details, but at this time planning to limit any mention of precip to
areas northwest of a Cuba-St Louis-Hillsboro line, with highest PoPs
just east of Kirksville.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

(Tonight through Saturday)

With no precip anticipated, focus thru this period will be temps.

Mdls are in good agreement with upper trof moving E of the region
overnight and swly flow at the sfc returning ahead of the next
cdfnt. This cdfnt is progd to push thru Sat morning, which may
require adjustments to temps on Sat with future updates.

With clouds expected to clear late tonight, have trended twd the
cooler guidance for tonight. With the thermal ridge advecting into
the region for Fri, have trended twd the warmer guidance. Similar
trends for Fri night with swly flow continuing overnight. Sat has
some forecast challenge with fropa expected in the morning. With
full insolation expected, have trended twd the warmer guidance even
with a nwly flow.

(Sunday through Wednesday)

Focus turns to precip chances on Tues.

23/00z mdls are in generally good agreement thru Tues morning, tho
the GEM is faster with the upper trof ejecting into the Plains. Have
focused PoPs on Mon night and Tues when the ECMWF/GFS have come into
better agreement. However, the 00z solns are somewhat different from
the prev 12z solns. Therefore, have still kept PoPs on the lower
side for now until a persistent signal is given.


Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Surface ridge extending from MI southwest through southeast MO
will shift slowly southeastward this period. An upper level
disturbance and associated weakening cool front/surface trough
will move eastward through the region on Thursday. Most of the
precipitation associated with this feature will be n-nw of the taf
sites, although UIN may receive a brief shower late Thursday
morning or early afternoon. For now will include mainly mid-high
level cloudiness in the tafs for Thursday. The NAM MOS guidance
appears a little overdone on its low level cloud forecast. Could
not rule out a little fog in SUS and CPS late tonight with only a
little cirrus cloudiness and calm surface wind. E-sely surface
winds will veer around to a sly direction Thursday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level cloudiness will advect into the
STL area on Thursday. Any significant rain should remain n-nw of
STL. A light e-sely surface wind late tonight will gradually veer
around to a sly direction Thursday morning, and eventually to a
swly direction Thursday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  52  74  58 /  10   5   0   0
Quincy          63  50  72  53 /  20  10   0   0
Columbia        67  51  75  56 /  20   5   0   0
Jefferson City  69  51  77  55 /  20   5   0   0
Salem           65  49  71  54 /  10  10   0   0
Farmington      64  46  73  54 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX









000
FXUS63 KLSX 230428
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1128 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The surface ridge which has been controlling our weather for the
past couple of days is drifting east and weakening slightly with
time.  Water vapor imagery is showing an elongated wave extending
from Saskatchewan all the way south into west Texas.  This wave will
continue working slowly eastward overnight and should extend from
south central Iowa southwest through eastern Oklahoma by 12Z
Thursday morning.  Operational guidance is pretty adamant that there
will be little if any precip east-southeast of Kirksville in our
area before 12Z, with precip chances ramping up during the daylight
hours Thursday morning.  Scattered to isolated showers probably
won`t get into east central Missouri, but central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois should see some light showers in
the morning.  Rain chances diminish Thursday afternoon as the wave
loses some potency, and drier low level air on the western side of
the stubborn surface ridge cuts into the showers.  MOS guidance
looks reasonable for both highs Thursday afternoon and lows tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Any lingering showers should be exiting the area along with the
shortwave by 00Z Friday or shortly thereafter.  Another upper level
ridge builds over the Rockies and across the Great Plains Friday
into Saturday.  Northwest flow aloft will prevail both days while a
weak cold front tries to dip into Missouri and Illinois.  The upper
ridge will move over the Midwest on Sunday allowing another high
pressure system to move into the Ohio Valley.  The western edge of
the airmass keeps edging further and further west with each model
run.  Have lowered temperatures a bit from the last couple of
forecasts, tho have tried to keep highs Sunday warmer than guidance,
and retained warmest temperatures over west/southwest sections of
the CWFA.

A full-latitude trof moves into the Great Plains Monday which will
bring broad south-southwest flow to the region and warm temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s.  The surface system associated with the
trof will gain strength and affect the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Some discrepancies with the medium range models out that far, but
high chance PoPs ahead of the cold front on Tuesday look
reasonable.  Position and speed of the system will determine whether
or not there will be thunderstorms, but a slight chance is not out
of the question.


Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Surface ridge extending from MI southwest through southeast MO
will shift slowly southeastward this period. An upper level
disturbance and associated weakening cool front/surface trough
will move eastward through the region on Thursday. Most of the
precipitation associated with this feature will be n-nw of the taf
sites, although UIN may receive a brief shower late Thursday
morning or early afternoon. For now will include mainly mid-high
level cloudiness in the tafs for Thursday. The NAM MOS guidance
appears a little overdone on its low level cloud forecast. Could
not rule out a little fog in SUS and CPS late tonight with only a
little cirrus cloudiness and calm surface wind. E-sely surface
winds will veer around to a sly direction Thursday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level cloudiness will advect into the
STL area on Thursday. Any significant rain should remain n-nw of
STL. A light e-sely surface wind late tonight will gradually veer
around to a sly direction Thursday morning, and eventually to a
swly direction Thursday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     45  65  53  73 /   5  20  10   5
Quincy          43  62  50  70 /  10  40  10   5
Columbia        47  67  52  75 /  10  30  10   5
Jefferson City  45  68  50  76 /  10  20  10   5
Salem           39  62  49  69 /   0  10  10   5
Farmington      39  63  48  72 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 222253
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
553 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The surface ridge which has been controlling our weather for the
past couple of days is drifting east and weakening slightly with
time.  Water vapor imagery is showing an elongated wave extending
from Saskatchewan all the way south into west Texas.  This wave will
continue working slowly eastward overnight and should extend from
south central Iowa southwest through eastern Oklahoma by 12Z
Thursday morning.  Operational guidance is pretty adamant that there
will be little if any precip east-southeast of Kirksville in our
area before 12Z, with precip chances ramping up during the daylight
hours Thursday morning.  Scattered to isolated showers probably
won`t get into east central Missouri, but central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois should see some light showers in
the morning.  Rain chances diminish Thursday afternoon as the wave
loses some potency, and drier low level air on the western side of
the stubborn surface ridge cuts into the showers.  MOS guidance
looks reasonable for both highs Thursday afternoon and lows tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Any lingering showers should be exiting the area along with the
shortwave by 00Z Friday or shortly thereafter.  Another upper level
ridge builds over the Rockies and across the Great Plains Friday
into Saturday.  Northwest flow aloft will prevail both days while a
weak cold front tries to dip into Missouri and Illinois.  The upper
ridge will move over the Midwest on Sunday allowing another high
pressure system to move into the Ohio Valley.  The western edge of
the airmass keeps edging further and further west with each model
run.  Have lowered temperatures a bit from the last couple of
forecasts, tho have tried to keep highs Sunday warmer than guidance,
and retained warmest temperatures over west/southwest sections of
the CWFA.

A full-latitude trof moves into the Great Plains Monday which will
bring broad south-southwest flow to the region and warm temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s.  The surface system associated with the
trof will gain strength and affect the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Some discrepancies with the medium range models out that far, but
high chance PoPs ahead of the cold front on Tuesday look
reasonable.  Position and speed of the system will determine whether
or not there will be thunderstorms, but a slight chance is not out
of the question.


Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Surface ridge extending from MI southwest through southeast MO
will shift slowly southeastward this period. An upper level
disturbance and associated weakening cool front/surface trough
will move eastward through the region on Thursday. Most of the
precipitation associated with this feature will be n-nw of the taf
sites, although UIN may receive a brief shower late Thursday
morning or early afternoon. For now will just include some mid-
high level cloudiness in the tafs for Thursday. The NAM MOS
guidance appears a little overdone on its low level cloud
forecast. E-sely surface winds will veer around to a sly direction
Thursday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level cloudiness will advect into the
STL area on Thursday. Any significant rain should remain n-nw of
STL. A light e-sely surface wind tonight will gradually veer around
to a sly direction Thursday morning, and eventually to a swly
direction Thursday evening.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  65  53  73 /   5  20  10   5
Quincy          43  62  50  70 /  10  40  10   5
Columbia        46  67  52  75 /  10  30  10   5
Jefferson City  45  68  50  76 /  10  20  10   5
Salem           42  62  49  69 /   0  10  10   5
Farmington      40  63  48  72 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 222253
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
553 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The surface ridge which has been controlling our weather for the
past couple of days is drifting east and weakening slightly with
time.  Water vapor imagery is showing an elongated wave extending
from Saskatchewan all the way south into west Texas.  This wave will
continue working slowly eastward overnight and should extend from
south central Iowa southwest through eastern Oklahoma by 12Z
Thursday morning.  Operational guidance is pretty adamant that there
will be little if any precip east-southeast of Kirksville in our
area before 12Z, with precip chances ramping up during the daylight
hours Thursday morning.  Scattered to isolated showers probably
won`t get into east central Missouri, but central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois should see some light showers in
the morning.  Rain chances diminish Thursday afternoon as the wave
loses some potency, and drier low level air on the western side of
the stubborn surface ridge cuts into the showers.  MOS guidance
looks reasonable for both highs Thursday afternoon and lows tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Any lingering showers should be exiting the area along with the
shortwave by 00Z Friday or shortly thereafter.  Another upper level
ridge builds over the Rockies and across the Great Plains Friday
into Saturday.  Northwest flow aloft will prevail both days while a
weak cold front tries to dip into Missouri and Illinois.  The upper
ridge will move over the Midwest on Sunday allowing another high
pressure system to move into the Ohio Valley.  The western edge of
the airmass keeps edging further and further west with each model
run.  Have lowered temperatures a bit from the last couple of
forecasts, tho have tried to keep highs Sunday warmer than guidance,
and retained warmest temperatures over west/southwest sections of
the CWFA.

A full-latitude trof moves into the Great Plains Monday which will
bring broad south-southwest flow to the region and warm temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s.  The surface system associated with the
trof will gain strength and affect the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Some discrepancies with the medium range models out that far, but
high chance PoPs ahead of the cold front on Tuesday look
reasonable.  Position and speed of the system will determine whether
or not there will be thunderstorms, but a slight chance is not out
of the question.


Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Surface ridge extending from MI southwest through southeast MO
will shift slowly southeastward this period. An upper level
disturbance and associated weakening cool front/surface trough
will move eastward through the region on Thursday. Most of the
precipitation associated with this feature will be n-nw of the taf
sites, although UIN may receive a brief shower late Thursday
morning or early afternoon. For now will just include some mid-
high level cloudiness in the tafs for Thursday. The NAM MOS
guidance appears a little overdone on its low level cloud
forecast. E-sely surface winds will veer around to a sly direction
Thursday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level cloudiness will advect into the
STL area on Thursday. Any significant rain should remain n-nw of
STL. A light e-sely surface wind tonight will gradually veer around
to a sly direction Thursday morning, and eventually to a swly
direction Thursday evening.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  65  53  73 /   5  20  10   5
Quincy          43  62  50  70 /  10  40  10   5
Columbia        46  67  52  75 /  10  30  10   5
Jefferson City  45  68  50  76 /  10  20  10   5
Salem           42  62  49  69 /   0  10  10   5
Farmington      40  63  48  72 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 222102
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
402 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The surface ridge which has been controlling our weather for the
past couple of days is drifting east and weakening slightly with
time.  Water vapor imagery is showing an elongated wave extending
from Saskatchewan all the way south into west Texas.  This wave will
continue working slowly eastward overnight and should extend from
south central Iowa southwest through eastern Oklahoma by 12Z
Thursday morning.  Operational guidance is pretty adamant that there
will be little if any precip east-southeast of Kirksville in our
area before 12Z, with precip chances ramping up during the daylight
hours Thursday morning.  Scattered to isolated showers probably
won`t get into east central Missouri, but central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois should see some light showers in
the morning.  Rain chances diminish Thursday afternoon as the wave
loses some potency, and drier low level air on the western side of
the stubborn surface ridge cuts into the showers.  MOS guidance
looks reasonable for both highs Thursday afternoon and lows tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Any lingering showers should be exiting the area along with the
shortwave by 00Z Friday or shortly thereafter.  Another upper level
ridge builds over the Rockies and across the Great Plains Friday
into Saturday.  Northwest flow aloft will prevail both days while a
weak cold front tries to dip into Missouri and Illinois.  The upper
ridge will move over the Midwest on Sunday allowing another high
pressure system to move into the Ohio Valley.  The western edge of
the airmass keeps edging further and further west with each model
run.  Have lowered temperatures a bit from the last couple of
forecasts, tho have tried to keep highs Sunday warmer than guidance,
and retained warmest temperatures over west/southwest sections of
the CWFA.

A full-latitude trof moves into the Great Plains Monday which will
bring broad south-southwest flow to the region and warm temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s.  The surface system associated with the
trof will gain strength and affect the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Some discrepancies with the medium range models out that far, but
high chance PoPs ahead of the cold front on Tuesday look
reasonable.  Position and speed of the system will determine whether
or not there will be thunderstorms, but a slight chance is not out
of the question.


Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue as high pressure ridge remains
anchored from the Great Lakes to central Arkansas. Slight chance
that a shower may impact KUIN late tomorrow - but not confident
enough to add lower ceiling or precipitation at this time due to
dry low levels of the atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions to continue.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  65  53  73 /   5  20  10   5
Quincy          43  62  50  70 /  10  40  10   5
Columbia        46  67  52  75 /  10  30  10   5
Jefferson City  45  68  50  76 /  10  20  10   5
Salem           42  62  49  69 /   0  10  10   5
Farmington      40  63  48  72 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 222029
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The surface ridge which has been controlling our weather for the
past couple of days is drifting east and weakening slightly with
time.  Water vapor imagery is showing an elongated wave extending
from Saskatchewan all the way south into west Texas.  This wave will
continue working slowly eastward overnight and should extend from
south central Iowa southwest through eastern Oklahoma by 12Z
Thursday morning.  Operational guidance is pretty adamant that there
will be little if any precip east-southeast of Kirksville in our
area before 12Z, with precip chances ramping up during the daylight
hours Thursday morning.  Scattered to isolated showers probably
won`t get into east central Missouri, but central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois should see some light showers in
the morning.  Rain chances diminish Thursday afternoon as the wave
loses some potency, and drier low level air on the western side of
the stubborn surface ridge cuts into the showers.  MOS guidance
looks reasonable for both highs Thursday afternoon and lows tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

There is a chance of rain showers from late tonight through
tomorrow afternoon as a trough swings through the northern US.
Instability still looks very limited across central and
northeastern MO, therefore no thunder is currently forecast.

Warming trend still looks on track for Friday through Sunday due
to an upper ridge building overhead. Sunday looks particularly
warm because surface winds will have turned southerly to
southwesterly around the back side of an elongated surface high.
Another low pressure system will approach the region early next
week, bringing a chance of rain from Monday through Tuesday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue as high pressure ridge remains
anchored from the Great Lakes to central Arkansas. Slight chance
that a shower may impact KUIN late tomorrow - but not confident
enough to add lower ceiling or precipitation at this time due to
dry low levels of the atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions to continue.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  65  53  73 /   5  20  10   5
Quincy          43  62  50  70 /  10  40  10   5
Columbia        46  67  52  75 /  10  30  10   5
Jefferson City  45  68  50  76 /  10  20  10   5
Salem           42  62  49  69 /   0  10  10   5
Farmington      40  63  48  72 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 222029
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The surface ridge which has been controlling our weather for the
past couple of days is drifting east and weakening slightly with
time.  Water vapor imagery is showing an elongated wave extending
from Saskatchewan all the way south into west Texas.  This wave will
continue working slowly eastward overnight and should extend from
south central Iowa southwest through eastern Oklahoma by 12Z
Thursday morning.  Operational guidance is pretty adamant that there
will be little if any precip east-southeast of Kirksville in our
area before 12Z, with precip chances ramping up during the daylight
hours Thursday morning.  Scattered to isolated showers probably
won`t get into east central Missouri, but central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois should see some light showers in
the morning.  Rain chances diminish Thursday afternoon as the wave
loses some potency, and drier low level air on the western side of
the stubborn surface ridge cuts into the showers.  MOS guidance
looks reasonable for both highs Thursday afternoon and lows tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

There is a chance of rain showers from late tonight through
tomorrow afternoon as a trough swings through the northern US.
Instability still looks very limited across central and
northeastern MO, therefore no thunder is currently forecast.

Warming trend still looks on track for Friday through Sunday due
to an upper ridge building overhead. Sunday looks particularly
warm because surface winds will have turned southerly to
southwesterly around the back side of an elongated surface high.
Another low pressure system will approach the region early next
week, bringing a chance of rain from Monday through Tuesday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue as high pressure ridge remains
anchored from the Great Lakes to central Arkansas. Slight chance
that a shower may impact KUIN late tomorrow - but not confident
enough to add lower ceiling or precipitation at this time due to
dry low levels of the atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions to continue.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  65  53  73 /   5  20  10   5
Quincy          43  62  50  70 /  10  40  10   5
Columbia        46  67  52  75 /  10  30  10   5
Jefferson City  45  68  50  76 /  10  20  10   5
Salem           42  62  49  69 /   0  10  10   5
Farmington      40  63  48  72 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 221743
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1243 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Broad surface ridge extending from the upper Great Lakes into the
Ozarks will bring the FA another sunny and dry autumn day.
Intensification of ridge over the past 24 hours has brought a bit
of cooler air to the region, which should result in afternoon
temps about 5 degrees cooler than those of yesterday.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

There is a chance of rain showers from late tonight through
tomorrow afternoon as a trough swings through the northern US.
Instability still looks very limited across central and
northeastern MO, therefore no thunder is currently forecast.

Warming trend still looks on track for Friday through Sunday due
to an upper ridge building overhead. Sunday looks particularly
warm because surface winds will have turned southerly to
southwesterly around the back side of an elongated surface high.
Another low pressure system will approach the region early next
week, bringing a chance of rain from Monday through Tuesday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue as high pressure ridge remains
anchored from the Great Lakes to central Arkansas. Slight chance
that a shower may impact KUIN late tomorrow - but not confident
enough to add lower ceiling or precipitation at this time due to
dry low levels of the atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions to continue.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 221743
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1243 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Broad surface ridge extending from the upper Great Lakes into the
Ozarks will bring the FA another sunny and dry autumn day.
Intensification of ridge over the past 24 hours has brought a bit
of cooler air to the region, which should result in afternoon
temps about 5 degrees cooler than those of yesterday.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

There is a chance of rain showers from late tonight through
tomorrow afternoon as a trough swings through the northern US.
Instability still looks very limited across central and
northeastern MO, therefore no thunder is currently forecast.

Warming trend still looks on track for Friday through Sunday due
to an upper ridge building overhead. Sunday looks particularly
warm because surface winds will have turned southerly to
southwesterly around the back side of an elongated surface high.
Another low pressure system will approach the region early next
week, bringing a chance of rain from Monday through Tuesday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue as high pressure ridge remains
anchored from the Great Lakes to central Arkansas. Slight chance
that a shower may impact KUIN late tomorrow - but not confident
enough to add lower ceiling or precipitation at this time due to
dry low levels of the atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions to continue.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 221201
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
701 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Broad surface ridge extending from the upper Great Lakes into the
Ozarks will bring the FA another sunny and dry autumn day.
Intensification of ridge over the past 24 hours has brought a bit
of cooler air to the region, which should result in afternoon
temps about 5 degrees cooler than those of yesterday.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

There is a chance of rain showers from late tonight through
tomorrow afternoon as a trough swings through the northern US.
Instability still looks very limited across central and
northeastern MO, therefore no thunder is currently forecast.

Warming trend still looks on track for Friday through Sunday due
to an upper ridge building overhead. Sunday looks particularly
warm because surface winds will have turned southerly to
southwesterly around the back side of an elongated surface high.
Another low pressure system will approach the region early next
week, bringing a chance of rain from Monday through Tuesday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

VFR weather will continue across the region thanks to sprawling and
slow moving surface ridge that extends from the upper Great Lakes
into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. Much like
yesterday, the cool dry airmass associated with the ridge should
mean Little if any cloudiness, with east-southeast surface winds
aob 10kts.

Specifics for KSTL: Clear skies and east-southeast winds aob 8 kts
are forecast for the next 24 hours.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 221009
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
509 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Broad surface ridge extending from the upper Great Lakes into the
Ozarks will bring the FA another sunny and dry autumn day.
Intensification of ridge over the past 24 hours has brought a bit
of cooler air to the region, which should result in afternoon
temps about 5 degrees cooler than those of yesterday.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

There is a chance of rain showers from late tonight through
tomorrow afternoon as a trough swings through the northern US.
Instability still looks very limited across central and
northeastern MO, therefore no thunder is currently forecast.

Warming trend still looks on track for Friday through Sunday due
to an upper ridge building overhead. Sunday looks particularly
warm because surface winds will have turned southerly to
southwesterly around the back side of an elongated surface high.
Another low pressure system will approach the region early next
week, bringing a chance of rain from Monday through Tuesday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface high pressure extending from the southern Great Lakes
region through the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley regions
will slowly move southeastward through Wednesday evening. Surface
winds will generally be easterly tonight then become east-
southeast on Wednesday. Skies will remainn clear expect for some
local river fog possible for KSUS and KCPS where visibilities may
drop to 2 to 5 SM.

Specifics for KSTL: Northeast surface winds will become easterly
by daybreak 3 to 5 kts. Winds will slight shift to the southeast
by late morning or mid-day. Wind speeds will be under 5 kts
tonight and then 7 to 9 kts late Wednesday morning through early afternoon.
Skies will remain clear.

Przybylinski

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 221009
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
509 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Broad surface ridge extending from the upper Great Lakes into the
Ozarks will bring the FA another sunny and dry autumn day.
Intensification of ridge over the past 24 hours has brought a bit
of cooler air to the region, which should result in afternoon
temps about 5 degrees cooler than those of yesterday.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

There is a chance of rain showers from late tonight through
tomorrow afternoon as a trough swings through the northern US.
Instability still looks very limited across central and
northeastern MO, therefore no thunder is currently forecast.

Warming trend still looks on track for Friday through Sunday due
to an upper ridge building overhead. Sunday looks particularly
warm because surface winds will have turned southerly to
southwesterly around the back side of an elongated surface high.
Another low pressure system will approach the region early next
week, bringing a chance of rain from Monday through Tuesday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface high pressure extending from the southern Great Lakes
region through the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley regions
will slowly move southeastward through Wednesday evening. Surface
winds will generally be easterly tonight then become east-
southeast on Wednesday. Skies will remainn clear expect for some
local river fog possible for KSUS and KCPS where visibilities may
drop to 2 to 5 SM.

Specifics for KSTL: Northeast surface winds will become easterly
by daybreak 3 to 5 kts. Winds will slight shift to the southeast
by late morning or mid-day. Wind speeds will be under 5 kts
tonight and then 7 to 9 kts late Wednesday morning through early afternoon.
Skies will remain clear.

Przybylinski

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 220446
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1146 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface ridge extending from Wisconsin south-southwest through the
Mississippi Valley into the southeast Plains will drift to the
southeast tonight.  The upper level ridge will continue to build
overhead keeping the sky clear.  Expect light and variable surface
wind this evening to turn to the east southeast overnight as the
surface ridge drifts by.  With good radiational cooling conditions
for at least part of the night, expect temperatures to dip down to
near or slightly below this morning`s lows.  Used a combination of
consensus MOS and MAV for forecast lows tomorrow morning.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

(Wednesday through Friday)

Dry weather is expected through Wednesday evening as a upper ridge
currently over the Plains will move across the area.  Then will
continue a slight chance for showers late on Wednesday night over
northeast and central Missouri as well as west central Illinois as
the GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all in good agreement that a upper trough will
approach the area.  This trough will move quickly across the area on
Thursday, though moisture will be limited with this system, so have
kept rain chances associated with this system in area mainly north
of I-70 where best ascent will be. Then subsidence will begin to
build into the area behind the trough, so expect dry weather to
return to the area for Thursday night and Friday.

Went toward the warmer GFS MOS for highs the next few days which
matches well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Saturday through next Tuesday)

Weekend still looks dry and warm for late October as both the GFS
and ECMWF showing a large upper ridge building over the area.  850mb
temperatures will climb to near 15C as surface winds become
southerly by Sunday. Both the GFS and ECMWF MOS guidance support
high temperatures well into the 70s Saturday into Monday. By early
next week, the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF are in good agreement
that a large trough will be moving through the Plains into the
Midwest with the attendant cold front reaching Missouri and
Illinois by Monday night. Will carry just low chances for showers
as there have been run-to-run model continuity issues which will
ultimately determine the timing of the rain early next week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface high pressure extending from the southern Great Lakes
region through the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley regions
will slowly move southeastward through Wednesday evening. Surface
winds will generally be easterly tonight then become east-
southeast on Wednesday. Skies will remainn clear expect for some
local river fog possible for KSUS and KCPS where visibilities may
drop to 2 to 5 SM.

Specifics for KSTL: Northeast surface winds will become easterly
by daybreak 3 to 5 kts. Winds will slight shift to the southeast
by late morning or mid-day. Wind speeds will be under 5 kts
tonight and then 7 to 9 kts late Wednesday morning through early afternoon.
Skies will remain clear.

Przybylinski

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 220446
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1146 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface ridge extending from Wisconsin south-southwest through the
Mississippi Valley into the southeast Plains will drift to the
southeast tonight.  The upper level ridge will continue to build
overhead keeping the sky clear.  Expect light and variable surface
wind this evening to turn to the east southeast overnight as the
surface ridge drifts by.  With good radiational cooling conditions
for at least part of the night, expect temperatures to dip down to
near or slightly below this morning`s lows.  Used a combination of
consensus MOS and MAV for forecast lows tomorrow morning.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

(Wednesday through Friday)

Dry weather is expected through Wednesday evening as a upper ridge
currently over the Plains will move across the area.  Then will
continue a slight chance for showers late on Wednesday night over
northeast and central Missouri as well as west central Illinois as
the GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all in good agreement that a upper trough will
approach the area.  This trough will move quickly across the area on
Thursday, though moisture will be limited with this system, so have
kept rain chances associated with this system in area mainly north
of I-70 where best ascent will be. Then subsidence will begin to
build into the area behind the trough, so expect dry weather to
return to the area for Thursday night and Friday.

Went toward the warmer GFS MOS for highs the next few days which
matches well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Saturday through next Tuesday)

Weekend still looks dry and warm for late October as both the GFS
and ECMWF showing a large upper ridge building over the area.  850mb
temperatures will climb to near 15C as surface winds become
southerly by Sunday. Both the GFS and ECMWF MOS guidance support
high temperatures well into the 70s Saturday into Monday. By early
next week, the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF are in good agreement
that a large trough will be moving through the Plains into the
Midwest with the attendant cold front reaching Missouri and
Illinois by Monday night. Will carry just low chances for showers
as there have been run-to-run model continuity issues which will
ultimately determine the timing of the rain early next week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface high pressure extending from the southern Great Lakes
region through the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley regions
will slowly move southeastward through Wednesday evening. Surface
winds will generally be easterly tonight then become east-
southeast on Wednesday. Skies will remainn clear expect for some
local river fog possible for KSUS and KCPS where visibilities may
drop to 2 to 5 SM.

Specifics for KSTL: Northeast surface winds will become easterly
by daybreak 3 to 5 kts. Winds will slight shift to the southeast
by late morning or mid-day. Wind speeds will be under 5 kts
tonight and then 7 to 9 kts late Wednesday morning through early afternoon.
Skies will remain clear.

Przybylinski

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 220005
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
705 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface ridge extending from Wisconsin south-southwest through the
Mississippi Valley into the southeast Plains will drift to the
southeast tonight.  The upper level ridge will continue to build
overhead keeping the sky clear.  Expect light and variable surface
wind this evening to turn to the east southeast overnight as the
surface ridge drifts by.  With good radiational cooling conditions
for at least part of the night, expect temperatures to dip down to
near or slightly below this morning`s lows.  Used a combination of
consensus MOS and MAV for forecast lows tomorrow morning.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

(Wednesday through Friday)

Dry weather is expected through Wednesday evening as a upper ridge
currently over the Plains will move across the area.  Then will
continue a slight chance for showers late on Wednesday night over
northeast and central Missouri as well as west central Illinois as
the GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all in good agreement that a upper trough will
approach the area.  This trough will move quickly across the area on
Thursday, though moisture will be limited with this system, so have
kept rain chances associated with this system in area mainly north
of I-70 where best ascent will be. Then subsidence will begin to
build into the area behind the trough, so expect dry weather to
return to the area for Thursday night and Friday.

Went toward the warmer GFS MOS for highs the next few days which
matches well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Saturday through next Tuesday)

Weekend still looks dry and warm for late October as both the GFS
and ECMWF showing a large upper ridge building over the area.  850mb
temperatures will climb to near 15C as surface winds become
southerly by Sunday. Both the GFS and ECMWF MOS guidance support
high temperatures well into the 70s Saturday into Monday. By early
next week, the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF are in good agreement
that a large trough will be moving through the Plains into the
Midwest with the attendant cold front reaching Missouri and
Illinois by Monday night. Will carry just low chances for showers
as there have been run-to-run model continuity issues which will
ultimately determine the timing of the rain early next week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

High pressure over Wisconsin is forecast to build southward into
the Ohio Valley region by midday on Wednesday. Surface winds will
remain easterly through Wednesday afternoon. Patchy fog along the
rivers may bring fog to SUS and CPS after 0900 UTC.

Specifics for KSTL: Northeast wind 5 kts will diminish to light
and variable. Easterly wind tomorrow will gradually become
southeast by midday with speeds of 5 to 7 kts.

Przybylinski

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 212031
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
331 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface ridge extending from Wisconsin south-southwest through the
Mississippi Valley into the southeast Plains will drift to the
southeast tonight.  The upper level ridge will continue to build
overhead keeping the sky clear.  Expect light and variable surface
wind this evening to turn to the east southeast overnight as the
surface ridge drifts by.  With good radiational cooling conditions
for at least part of the night, expect temperatures to dip down to
near or slightly below this morning`s lows.  Used a combination of
consensus MOS and MAV for forecast lows tomorrow morning.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

(Wednesday through Friday)

Dry weather is expected through Wednesday evening as a upper ridge
currently over the Plains will move across the area.  Then will
continue a slight chance for showers late on Wednesday night over
northeast and central Missouri as well as west central Illinois as
the GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all in good agreement that a upper trough will
approach the area.  This trough will move quickly across the area on
Thursday, though moisture will be limited with this system, so have
kept rain chances associated with this system in area mainly north
of I-70 where best ascent will be. Then subsidence will begin to
build into the area behind the trough, so expect dry weather to
return to the area for Thursday night and Friday.

Went toward the warmer GFS MOS for highs the next few days which
matches well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Saturday through next Tuesday)

Weekend still looks dry and warm for late October as both the GFS
and ECMWF showing a large upper ridge building over the area.  850mb
temperatures will climb to near 15C as surface winds become
southerly by Sunday. Both the GFS and ECMWF MOS guidance support
high temperatures well into the 70s Saturday into Monday. By early
next week, the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF are in good agreement
that a large trough will be moving through the Plains into the
Midwest with the attendant cold front reaching Missouri and
Illinois by Monday night. Will carry just low chances for showers
as there have been run-to-run model continuity issues which will
ultimately determine the timing of the rain early next week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface ridge centered north of Lake Superior extending south
through the Mississippi Valley will drift south-southeast through
Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail with river valley fog
possible late tonight and Wednesday morning. Wind will gradually
veer from the north-northeast to to the east-southeast by
Wednesday afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Surface ridge centered north of Lake Superior extending south
through the Mississippi Valley will drift south-southeast through
Wednesday. VFR conditions will continue to prevail. Wind will
gradually veer from the north-northeast to to the east-southeast
by Wednesday afternoon.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 211750
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1250 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through
tomorrow and into tomorrow night.

A vort max was located over northern NV early this morning. This
system is forecast to lift northeastwards today, then move through
the northern plains and into southern Canada tonight and
tomorrow. Even though the vort max itself will be located well
north of MO/IL, it will still drag a weak cold front into the
region tomorrow night and Thursday, bringing a chance of rain
showers to parts of the area. Some models do show a few hundred
J/kg of CAPE farther west across western MO, but instability looks
much more limited over central and northeastern MO.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Model solutions depict a large ridge of high pressure building
across the middle of the country from Friday through Sunday. High
temperatures could warm to as much as 5-15 degrees above average
during this time if H85 temperatures of 10-16 deg C are realized.
Another low pressure system could bring a chance of rain to the
area on Monday or early next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface ridge centered north of Lake Superior extending south
through the Mississippi Valley will drift south-southeast through
Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail with river valley fog
possible late tonight and Wednesday morning. Wind will gradually
veer from the north-northeast to to the east-southeast by
Wednesday afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Surface ridge centered north of Lake Superior extending south
through the Mississippi Valley will drift south-southeast through
Wednesday. VFR conditions will continue to prevail. Wind will
gradually veer from the north-northeast to to the east-southeast
by Wednesday afternoon.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 211216
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
716 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through
tomorrow and into tomorrow night.

A vort max was located over northern NV early this morning. This
system is forecast to lift northeastwards today, then move through
the northern plains and into southern Canada tonight and
tomorrow. Even though the vort max itself will be located well
north of MO/IL, it will still drag a weak cold front into the
region tomorrow night and Thursday, bringing a chance of rain
showers to parts of the area. Some models do show a few hundred
J/kg of CAPE farther west across western MO, but instability looks
much more limited over central and northeastern MO.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Model solutions depict a large ridge of high pressure building
across the middle of the country from Friday through Sunday. High
temperatures could warm to as much as 5-15 degrees above average
during this time if H85 temperatures of 10-16 deg C are realized.
Another low pressure system could bring a chance of rain to the
area on Monday or early next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 715 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

VFR conditions will persist across the region as cool and dry high
pressure builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley from the upper
Great Lakes. Only potential issue could be river fog tonight at
the usual suspects (SUS/CPS), but will let later shifts evalute this
threat before including in forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Clear skies should continue today through
tonight as high pressure dominates the weather over the Central
U.S.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 211216
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
716 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through
tomorrow and into tomorrow night.

A vort max was located over northern NV early this morning. This
system is forecast to lift northeastwards today, then move through
the northern plains and into southern Canada tonight and
tomorrow. Even though the vort max itself will be located well
north of MO/IL, it will still drag a weak cold front into the
region tomorrow night and Thursday, bringing a chance of rain
showers to parts of the area. Some models do show a few hundred
J/kg of CAPE farther west across western MO, but instability looks
much more limited over central and northeastern MO.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Model solutions depict a large ridge of high pressure building
across the middle of the country from Friday through Sunday. High
temperatures could warm to as much as 5-15 degrees above average
during this time if H85 temperatures of 10-16 deg C are realized.
Another low pressure system could bring a chance of rain to the
area on Monday or early next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 715 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

VFR conditions will persist across the region as cool and dry high
pressure builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley from the upper
Great Lakes. Only potential issue could be river fog tonight at
the usual suspects (SUS/CPS), but will let later shifts evalute this
threat before including in forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Clear skies should continue today through
tonight as high pressure dominates the weather over the Central
U.S.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








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