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000
FXUS63 KLSX 241736
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1236 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Forecast on track with only minor tweaks made. No need for an
update other than to remove previous morning wording.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Surface ridge will remain overhead today with mostly sunny skies,
lower dewpts and cooler temperatures. Highs will only be in the
upper 70s to low 80s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

By tonight, surface ridge begins to move off to the east allowing
southerly winds and low level moisture to return once again. Models
continue to develop a complex over Iowa on nose of low level jet
with southern edge just skimming far northern portions of forecast
area after 06z Friday. Kept slight chance pops there for now.
Otherwise, dry conditions to prevail with lows in the upper 50s to
low 60s.

On Friday, complex to slide southeast across IL with northeastern
portions of forecast area on periphery of complex. Depending on
coverage of activity and cloud cover associated with it,
temperatures are hard to pin down. For now have highs ranging from
the low 80s far east to the low 90s over central MO.

By Friday night, main cold front to begin sliding southeast through
forecast area. With increasing low level jet once again and
increasing moisture, will see activity fire on nose of low level
jet along and east of Mississippi River. Will also see milder overnight
temperatures with lows only in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Despite 850 temps between 22 and 24C, high temperature forecast will
be tricky on Saturday. With ongoing storms possible along frontal
boundary that will be moving through, could see a wide range of high
temperatures. For now kept forecast area rather warm with highs in
the low to mid 90s, and with dewpts in the low 70s, heat indicies
will approach 100 in many locations. Another issue will be the
possibility of severe weather especially Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night. High CAPES, plenty of low level moisture, and
shortwave tracking along boundary, could see complex develop and
slide east. SPC has put most of forecast area in a slight risk for
Day 3.

Frontal boundary and storms to finally exit region by late Sunday
with surface ridge building in for the first part of the work week.
Highs Monday through Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid
period. A minor question of steam fog potential at SUS and perhaps
CPS due to unusual cool temps versus relatively warm river temps,
but airmass itself is quite dry and should inhibit this to some
degree and for now have not placed in the TAFs although if I did,
it would be more as VCFG than any direct impact. Otherwise look
for variable winds due to proximity of surface ridge to become SE
and S heading into Friday.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR thru the period with veering surface winds
to S by Friday.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241736
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1236 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Forecast on track with only minor tweaks made. No need for an
update other than to remove previous morning wording.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Surface ridge will remain overhead today with mostly sunny skies,
lower dewpts and cooler temperatures. Highs will only be in the
upper 70s to low 80s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

By tonight, surface ridge begins to move off to the east allowing
southerly winds and low level moisture to return once again. Models
continue to develop a complex over Iowa on nose of low level jet
with southern edge just skimming far northern portions of forecast
area after 06z Friday. Kept slight chance pops there for now.
Otherwise, dry conditions to prevail with lows in the upper 50s to
low 60s.

On Friday, complex to slide southeast across IL with northeastern
portions of forecast area on periphery of complex. Depending on
coverage of activity and cloud cover associated with it,
temperatures are hard to pin down. For now have highs ranging from
the low 80s far east to the low 90s over central MO.

By Friday night, main cold front to begin sliding southeast through
forecast area. With increasing low level jet once again and
increasing moisture, will see activity fire on nose of low level
jet along and east of Mississippi River. Will also see milder overnight
temperatures with lows only in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Despite 850 temps between 22 and 24C, high temperature forecast will
be tricky on Saturday. With ongoing storms possible along frontal
boundary that will be moving through, could see a wide range of high
temperatures. For now kept forecast area rather warm with highs in
the low to mid 90s, and with dewpts in the low 70s, heat indicies
will approach 100 in many locations. Another issue will be the
possibility of severe weather especially Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night. High CAPES, plenty of low level moisture, and
shortwave tracking along boundary, could see complex develop and
slide east. SPC has put most of forecast area in a slight risk for
Day 3.

Frontal boundary and storms to finally exit region by late Sunday
with surface ridge building in for the first part of the work week.
Highs Monday through Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid
period. A minor question of steam fog potential at SUS and perhaps
CPS due to unusual cool temps versus relatively warm river temps,
but airmass itself is quite dry and should inhibit this to some
degree and for now have not placed in the TAFs although if I did,
it would be more as VCFG than any direct impact. Otherwise look
for variable winds due to proximity of surface ridge to become SE
and S heading into Friday.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR thru the period with veering surface winds
to S by Friday.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241151
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
651 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Surface ridge will remain overhead today with mostly sunny skies,
lower dewpts and cooler temperatures. Highs will only be in the
upper 70s to low 80s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

By tonight, surface ridge begins to move off to the east allowing
southerly winds and low level moisture to return once again. Models
continue to develop a complex over Iowa on nose of low level jet
with southern edge just skimming far northern portions of forecast
area after 06z Friday. Kept slight chance pops there for now.
Otherwise, dry conditions to prevail with lows in the upper 50s to
low 60s.

On Friday, complex to slide southeast across IL with northeastern
portions of forecast area on periphery of complex. Depending on
coverage of activity and cloud cover associated with it,
temperatures are hard to pin down. For now have highs ranging from
the low 80s far east to the low 90s over central MO.

By Friday night, main cold front to begin sliding southeast through
forecast area. With increasing low level jet once again and
increasing moisture, will see activity fire on nose of low level
jet along and east of Mississippi River. Will also see milder overnight
temperatures with lows only in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Despite 850 temps between 22 and 24C, high temperature forecast will
be tricky on Saturday. With ongoing storms possible along frontal
boundary that will be moving through, could see a wide range of high
temperatures. For now kept forecast area rather warm with highs in
the low to mid 90s, and with dewpts in the low 70s, heat indicies
will approach 100 in many locations. Another issue will be the
possibility of severe weather especially Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night. High CAPES, plenty of low level moisture, and
shortwave tracking along boundary, could see complex develop and
slide east. SPC has put most of forecast area in a slight risk for
Day 3.

Frontal boundary and storms to finally exit region by late Sunday
with surface ridge building in for the first part of the work week.
Highs Monday through Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue with light wind.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions will continue with light wind.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241151
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
651 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Surface ridge will remain overhead today with mostly sunny skies,
lower dewpts and cooler temperatures. Highs will only be in the
upper 70s to low 80s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

By tonight, surface ridge begins to move off to the east allowing
southerly winds and low level moisture to return once again. Models
continue to develop a complex over Iowa on nose of low level jet
with southern edge just skimming far northern portions of forecast
area after 06z Friday. Kept slight chance pops there for now.
Otherwise, dry conditions to prevail with lows in the upper 50s to
low 60s.

On Friday, complex to slide southeast across IL with northeastern
portions of forecast area on periphery of complex. Depending on
coverage of activity and cloud cover associated with it,
temperatures are hard to pin down. For now have highs ranging from
the low 80s far east to the low 90s over central MO.

By Friday night, main cold front to begin sliding southeast through
forecast area. With increasing low level jet once again and
increasing moisture, will see activity fire on nose of low level
jet along and east of Mississippi River. Will also see milder overnight
temperatures with lows only in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Despite 850 temps between 22 and 24C, high temperature forecast will
be tricky on Saturday. With ongoing storms possible along frontal
boundary that will be moving through, could see a wide range of high
temperatures. For now kept forecast area rather warm with highs in
the low to mid 90s, and with dewpts in the low 70s, heat indicies
will approach 100 in many locations. Another issue will be the
possibility of severe weather especially Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night. High CAPES, plenty of low level moisture, and
shortwave tracking along boundary, could see complex develop and
slide east. SPC has put most of forecast area in a slight risk for
Day 3.

Frontal boundary and storms to finally exit region by late Sunday
with surface ridge building in for the first part of the work week.
Highs Monday through Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue with light wind.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions will continue with light wind.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 240837
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
337 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Surface ridge will remain overhead today with mostly sunny skies,
lower dewpts and cooler temperatures. Highs will only be in the
upper 70s to low 80s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

By tonight, surface ridge begins to move off to the east allowing
southerly winds and low level moisture to return once again. Models
continue to develop a complex over Iowa on nose of low level jet
with southern edge just skimming far northern portions of forecast
area after 06z Friday. Kept slight chance pops there for now.
Otherwise, dry conditions to prevail with lows in the upper 50s to
low 60s.

On Friday, complex to slide southeast across IL with northeastern
portions of forecast area on periphery of complex. Depending on
coverage of activity and cloud cover associated with it,
temperatures are hard to pin down. For now have highs ranging from
the low 80s far east to the low 90s over central MO.

By Friday night, main cold front to begin sliding southeast through
forecast area. With increasing low level jet once again and
increasing moisture, will see activity fire on nose of low level
jet along and east of Mississippi River. Will also see milder overnight
temperatures with lows only in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Despite 850 temps between 22 and 24C, high temperature forecast will
be tricky on Saturday. With ongoing storms possible along frontal
boundary that will be moving through, could see a wide range of high
temperatures. For now kept forecast area rather warm with highs in
the low to mid 90s, and with dewpts in the low 70s, heat indicies
will approach 100 in many locations. Another issue will be the
possibility of severe weather especially Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night. High CAPES, plenty of low level moisture, and
shortwave tracking along boundary, could see complex develop and
slide east. SPC has put most of forecast area in a slight risk for
Day 3.

Frontal boundary and storms to finally exit region by late Sunday
with surface ridge building in for the first part of the work week.
Highs Monday through Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

VFR fcst thru the prd as high pressure drifts from MN to IN allowing
for diurnal cu and a light breeze with an erly component.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240837
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
337 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Surface ridge will remain overhead today with mostly sunny skies,
lower dewpts and cooler temperatures. Highs will only be in the
upper 70s to low 80s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

By tonight, surface ridge begins to move off to the east allowing
southerly winds and low level moisture to return once again. Models
continue to develop a complex over Iowa on nose of low level jet
with southern edge just skimming far northern portions of forecast
area after 06z Friday. Kept slight chance pops there for now.
Otherwise, dry conditions to prevail with lows in the upper 50s to
low 60s.

On Friday, complex to slide southeast across IL with northeastern
portions of forecast area on periphery of complex. Depending on
coverage of activity and cloud cover associated with it,
temperatures are hard to pin down. For now have highs ranging from
the low 80s far east to the low 90s over central MO.

By Friday night, main cold front to begin sliding southeast through
forecast area. With increasing low level jet once again and
increasing moisture, will see activity fire on nose of low level
jet along and east of Mississippi River. Will also see milder overnight
temperatures with lows only in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Despite 850 temps between 22 and 24C, high temperature forecast will
be tricky on Saturday. With ongoing storms possible along frontal
boundary that will be moving through, could see a wide range of high
temperatures. For now kept forecast area rather warm with highs in
the low to mid 90s, and with dewpts in the low 70s, heat indicies
will approach 100 in many locations. Another issue will be the
possibility of severe weather especially Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night. High CAPES, plenty of low level moisture, and
shortwave tracking along boundary, could see complex develop and
slide east. SPC has put most of forecast area in a slight risk for
Day 3.

Frontal boundary and storms to finally exit region by late Sunday
with surface ridge building in for the first part of the work week.
Highs Monday through Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

VFR fcst thru the prd as high pressure drifts from MN to IN allowing
for diurnal cu and a light breeze with an erly component.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 240435
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1135 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Front has pushed into southeast MO and extreme southern IL this
afternoon.  Although a few storms have been able to form in the
residual instability north of the front they too are sagging south,
and should exit southern tip of Reynolds county no later than 22z.

Weather trends for the FA heading into the overnight hours will be
controlled by large high pressure ridge working its way south from
the upper Mississippi Valley. Although dewpoints pooled north of the
frontal boundary have kept humidity levels fairly high along and
south of I-70 this afternoon, leading edge of much drier air is
currently working into northern sections of the FA, and this drier
airmass will overspread the entire CWA throughout the night.
This dry and cool airmass along with clear skies should yield min
temps that are about 10 degrees below late July averages, with lows
expected range from the mid 50s to low 60s.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Surface ridge will build southeast from Wisconsin into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday, and then continue east into the
Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday.  Should see temperatures
well below normal Thursday and Thursday night with low humidity.  As
the high moves into the Mid-Atlantic Region on Friday, we should see
a return of more typical summer heat and humidity, especially across
central and northeast Missouri as southerly flow ramps up.  Could
see some warm advection showers/thunderstorms Friday, primarily
across northern/northeastern portions of the CWFA as the low level
jet strengthens ahead of a weak shortwave rounding the upper level
ridge.  This should suppress temperatures somewhat on Friday
afternoon.

By Saturday the next strong ridge-running shortwave will be dipping
southeast out of Canada into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Strong southerly flow will bring more heat and humidity into the
region, and this will likely be the warmest day of the next 7 with
highs in the middle...and perhaps upper 90s.  The shortwave will
phase with the long wave trof over eastern North America allowing
another cool Canadian airmass to dip into the eastern CONUS.  Medium
range guidance is in decent agreement that the cold front ahead of
this airmass will plow through the area on Sunday with another shot
at precipitation.  There are some discrepancies between the GFS and
ECMWF as to the extent and perhaps the intensity of the
precipitation, so will stick with mid-high chance PoPs at this time.
After the front moves through and high pressure moves in, expect
another round of spectacular late July weather with below normal
temperatures and low humidity into the middle of next week.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

VFR fcst thru the prd as high pressure drifts from MN to IN allowing
for diurnal cu and a light breeze with an erly component.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     61  80  64  87 /   5   0   0  10
Quincy          57  79  60  85 /   0   0  30  30
Columbia        60  80  62  91 /   0   0  10  10
Jefferson City  60  81  61  91 /   0   0  10  10
Salem           56  79  58  86 /   5   0   0  10
Farmington      58  79  58  85 /   5   0   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 240435
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1135 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Front has pushed into southeast MO and extreme southern IL this
afternoon.  Although a few storms have been able to form in the
residual instability north of the front they too are sagging south,
and should exit southern tip of Reynolds county no later than 22z.

Weather trends for the FA heading into the overnight hours will be
controlled by large high pressure ridge working its way south from
the upper Mississippi Valley. Although dewpoints pooled north of the
frontal boundary have kept humidity levels fairly high along and
south of I-70 this afternoon, leading edge of much drier air is
currently working into northern sections of the FA, and this drier
airmass will overspread the entire CWA throughout the night.
This dry and cool airmass along with clear skies should yield min
temps that are about 10 degrees below late July averages, with lows
expected range from the mid 50s to low 60s.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Surface ridge will build southeast from Wisconsin into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday, and then continue east into the
Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday.  Should see temperatures
well below normal Thursday and Thursday night with low humidity.  As
the high moves into the Mid-Atlantic Region on Friday, we should see
a return of more typical summer heat and humidity, especially across
central and northeast Missouri as southerly flow ramps up.  Could
see some warm advection showers/thunderstorms Friday, primarily
across northern/northeastern portions of the CWFA as the low level
jet strengthens ahead of a weak shortwave rounding the upper level
ridge.  This should suppress temperatures somewhat on Friday
afternoon.

By Saturday the next strong ridge-running shortwave will be dipping
southeast out of Canada into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Strong southerly flow will bring more heat and humidity into the
region, and this will likely be the warmest day of the next 7 with
highs in the middle...and perhaps upper 90s.  The shortwave will
phase with the long wave trof over eastern North America allowing
another cool Canadian airmass to dip into the eastern CONUS.  Medium
range guidance is in decent agreement that the cold front ahead of
this airmass will plow through the area on Sunday with another shot
at precipitation.  There are some discrepancies between the GFS and
ECMWF as to the extent and perhaps the intensity of the
precipitation, so will stick with mid-high chance PoPs at this time.
After the front moves through and high pressure moves in, expect
another round of spectacular late July weather with below normal
temperatures and low humidity into the middle of next week.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

VFR fcst thru the prd as high pressure drifts from MN to IN allowing
for diurnal cu and a light breeze with an erly component.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     61  80  64  87 /   5   0   0  10
Quincy          57  79  60  85 /   0   0  30  30
Columbia        60  80  62  91 /   0   0  10  10
Jefferson City  60  81  61  91 /   0   0  10  10
Salem           56  79  58  86 /   5   0   0  10
Farmington      58  79  58  85 /   5   0   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240003
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
703 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Front has pushed into southeast MO and extreme southern IL this
afternoon.  Although a few storms have been able to form in the
residual instability north of the front they too are sagging south,
and should exit southern tip of Reynolds county no later than 22z.

Weather trends for the FA heading into the overnight hours will be
controlled by large high pressure ridge working its way south from
the upper Mississippi Valley. Although dewpoints pooled north of the
frontal boundary have kept humidity levels fairly high along and
south of I-70 this afternoon, leading edge of much drier air is
currently working into northern sections of the FA, and this drier
airmass will overspread the entire CWA throughout the night.
This dry and cool airmass along with clear skies should yield min
temps that are about 10 degrees below late July averages, with lows
expected range from the mid 50s to low 60s.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Surface ridge will build southeast from Wisconsin into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday, and then continue east into the
Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday.  Should see temperatures
well below normal Thursday and Thursday night with low humidity.  As
the high moves into the Mid-Atlantic Region on Friday, we should see
a return of more typical summer heat and humidity, especially across
central and northeast Missouri as southerly flow ramps up.  Could
see some warm advection showers/thunderstorms Friday, primarily
across northern/northeastern portions of the CWFA as the low level
jet strengthens ahead of a weak shortwave rounding the upper level
ridge.  This should suppress temperatures somewhat on Friday
afternoon.

By Saturday the next strong ridge-running shortwave will be dipping
southeast out of Canada into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Strong southerly flow will bring more heat and humidity into the
region, and this will likely be the warmest day of the next 7 with
highs in the middle...and perhaps upper 90s.  The shortwave will
phase with the long wave trof over eastern North America allowing
another cool Canadian airmass to dip into the eastern CONUS.  Medium
range guidance is in decent agreement that the cold front ahead of
this airmass will plow through the area on Sunday with another shot
at precipitation.  There are some discrepancies between the GFS and
ECMWF as to the extent and perhaps the intensity of the
precipitation, so will stick with mid-high chance PoPs at this time.
After the front moves through and high pressure moves in, expect
another round of spectacular late July weather with below normal
temperatures and low humidity into the middle of next week.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

High pressure will continue to build into the region thru the prd
with diurnal cu and a light NE breeze becoming erly by Thursday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst thru the prd with diurnal cu and a light NE breeze
eventually becoming SE by Thursday evening.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     61  80  64  87 /   5   0   5  10
Quincy          57  79  60  85 /   0   0  30  40
Columbia        60  80  62  91 /   0   0  10  10
Jefferson City  60  81  61  91 /   0   0  10  10
Salem           56  79  58  86 /  10   0   0  10
Farmington      58  79  58  85 /  10   0   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240003
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
703 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Front has pushed into southeast MO and extreme southern IL this
afternoon.  Although a few storms have been able to form in the
residual instability north of the front they too are sagging south,
and should exit southern tip of Reynolds county no later than 22z.

Weather trends for the FA heading into the overnight hours will be
controlled by large high pressure ridge working its way south from
the upper Mississippi Valley. Although dewpoints pooled north of the
frontal boundary have kept humidity levels fairly high along and
south of I-70 this afternoon, leading edge of much drier air is
currently working into northern sections of the FA, and this drier
airmass will overspread the entire CWA throughout the night.
This dry and cool airmass along with clear skies should yield min
temps that are about 10 degrees below late July averages, with lows
expected range from the mid 50s to low 60s.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Surface ridge will build southeast from Wisconsin into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday, and then continue east into the
Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday.  Should see temperatures
well below normal Thursday and Thursday night with low humidity.  As
the high moves into the Mid-Atlantic Region on Friday, we should see
a return of more typical summer heat and humidity, especially across
central and northeast Missouri as southerly flow ramps up.  Could
see some warm advection showers/thunderstorms Friday, primarily
across northern/northeastern portions of the CWFA as the low level
jet strengthens ahead of a weak shortwave rounding the upper level
ridge.  This should suppress temperatures somewhat on Friday
afternoon.

By Saturday the next strong ridge-running shortwave will be dipping
southeast out of Canada into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Strong southerly flow will bring more heat and humidity into the
region, and this will likely be the warmest day of the next 7 with
highs in the middle...and perhaps upper 90s.  The shortwave will
phase with the long wave trof over eastern North America allowing
another cool Canadian airmass to dip into the eastern CONUS.  Medium
range guidance is in decent agreement that the cold front ahead of
this airmass will plow through the area on Sunday with another shot
at precipitation.  There are some discrepancies between the GFS and
ECMWF as to the extent and perhaps the intensity of the
precipitation, so will stick with mid-high chance PoPs at this time.
After the front moves through and high pressure moves in, expect
another round of spectacular late July weather with below normal
temperatures and low humidity into the middle of next week.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

High pressure will continue to build into the region thru the prd
with diurnal cu and a light NE breeze becoming erly by Thursday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst thru the prd with diurnal cu and a light NE breeze
eventually becoming SE by Thursday evening.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     61  80  64  87 /   5   0   5  10
Quincy          57  79  60  85 /   0   0  30  40
Columbia        60  80  62  91 /   0   0  10  10
Jefferson City  60  81  61  91 /   0   0  10  10
Salem           56  79  58  86 /  10   0   0  10
Farmington      58  79  58  85 /  10   0   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 232034
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
334 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Front has pushed into southeast MO and extreme southern IL this
afternoon.  Although a few storms have been able to form in the
residual instability north of the front they too are sagging south,
and should exit southern tip of Reynolds county no later than 22z.

Weather trends for the FA heading into the overnight hours will be
controlled by large high pressure ridge working its way south from
the upper Mississippi Valley. Although dewpoints pooled north of the
frontal boundary have kept humidity levels fairly high along and
south of I-70 this afternoon, leading edge of much drier air is
currently working into northern sections of the FA, and this drier
airmass will overspread the entire CWA throughout the night.
This dry and cool airmass along with clear skies should yield min
temps that are about 10 degrees below late July averages, with lows
expected range from the mid 50s to low 60s.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Surface ridge will build southeast from Wisconsin into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday, and then continue east into the
Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday.  Should see temperatures
well below normal Thursday and Thursday night with low humidity.  As
the high moves into the Mid-Atlantic Region on Friday, we should see
a return of more typical summer heat and humidity, especially across
central and northeast Missouri as southerly flow ramps up.  Could
see some warm advection showers/thunderstorms Friday, primarily
across northern/northeastern portions of the CWFA as the low level
jet strengthens ahead of a weak shortwave rounding the upper level
ridge.  This should suppress temperatures somewhat on Friday
afternoon.

By Saturday the next strong ridge-running shortwave will be dipping
southeast out of Canada into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Strong southerly flow will bring more heat and humidity into the
region, and this will likely be the warmest day of the next 7 with
highs in the middle...and perhaps upper 90s.  The shortwave will
phase with the long wave trof over eastern North America allowing
another cool Canadian airmass to dip into the eastern CONUS.  Medium
range guidance is in decent agreement that the cold front ahead of
this airmass will plow through the area on Sunday with another shot
at precipitation.  There are some discrepancies between the GFS and
ECMWF as to the extent and perhaps the intensity of the
precipitation, so will stick with mid-high chance PoPs at this time.
After the front moves through and high pressure moves in, expect
another round of spectacular late July weather with below normal
temperatures and low humidity into the middle of next week.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Band of post frontal st/sc that formed and/or advected into area
from sw and central IL has given all TAF sites but KCOU a very
definite autumn look throughout the morning. However, over the
last 90 minutes or so visible satellite pics indicate that this cloud
deck (which was roughly centered on a line from just w of KUIN to
near KSTL at 16z) is beginning to break up and ceilings are
beginning to rise. So...believe MVFR cigs in the STL metro should
climb aoa 3kft over the next hour or so...with sct-bkn clouds
3-5kft being the primary sky condition for most of the area during
the afternoon. All of this cloudiness should dissipate heading
into the evening hours with loss of heating and with much drier
air advecting into the region, with clear skies and light
northeast winds expected overnight.

Specifics for KSTL: Bases of MVFR clouds over the area at midday
should climb above 3 kft over the next hour or so...with
additional thinning of the clouds producing sct-bkn deck 3-5kft
throughout the afternoon. The clouds should totally dissipate by
early this evening, leaving clear skies and light northeast winds
for the overnight hours and into Thursday morning.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     61  80  64  87 /   5   0   5  10
Quincy          57  79  60  85 /   0   0  30  40
Columbia        60  80  62  91 /   0   0  10  10
Jefferson City  60  81  61  91 /   0   0  10  10
Salem           56  79  58  86 /  10   0   0  10
Farmington      58  79  58  85 /  10   0   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 232034
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
334 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Front has pushed into southeast MO and extreme southern IL this
afternoon.  Although a few storms have been able to form in the
residual instability north of the front they too are sagging south,
and should exit southern tip of Reynolds county no later than 22z.

Weather trends for the FA heading into the overnight hours will be
controlled by large high pressure ridge working its way south from
the upper Mississippi Valley. Although dewpoints pooled north of the
frontal boundary have kept humidity levels fairly high along and
south of I-70 this afternoon, leading edge of much drier air is
currently working into northern sections of the FA, and this drier
airmass will overspread the entire CWA throughout the night.
This dry and cool airmass along with clear skies should yield min
temps that are about 10 degrees below late July averages, with lows
expected range from the mid 50s to low 60s.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Surface ridge will build southeast from Wisconsin into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday, and then continue east into the
Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday.  Should see temperatures
well below normal Thursday and Thursday night with low humidity.  As
the high moves into the Mid-Atlantic Region on Friday, we should see
a return of more typical summer heat and humidity, especially across
central and northeast Missouri as southerly flow ramps up.  Could
see some warm advection showers/thunderstorms Friday, primarily
across northern/northeastern portions of the CWFA as the low level
jet strengthens ahead of a weak shortwave rounding the upper level
ridge.  This should suppress temperatures somewhat on Friday
afternoon.

By Saturday the next strong ridge-running shortwave will be dipping
southeast out of Canada into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Strong southerly flow will bring more heat and humidity into the
region, and this will likely be the warmest day of the next 7 with
highs in the middle...and perhaps upper 90s.  The shortwave will
phase with the long wave trof over eastern North America allowing
another cool Canadian airmass to dip into the eastern CONUS.  Medium
range guidance is in decent agreement that the cold front ahead of
this airmass will plow through the area on Sunday with another shot
at precipitation.  There are some discrepancies between the GFS and
ECMWF as to the extent and perhaps the intensity of the
precipitation, so will stick with mid-high chance PoPs at this time.
After the front moves through and high pressure moves in, expect
another round of spectacular late July weather with below normal
temperatures and low humidity into the middle of next week.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Band of post frontal st/sc that formed and/or advected into area
from sw and central IL has given all TAF sites but KCOU a very
definite autumn look throughout the morning. However, over the
last 90 minutes or so visible satellite pics indicate that this cloud
deck (which was roughly centered on a line from just w of KUIN to
near KSTL at 16z) is beginning to break up and ceilings are
beginning to rise. So...believe MVFR cigs in the STL metro should
climb aoa 3kft over the next hour or so...with sct-bkn clouds
3-5kft being the primary sky condition for most of the area during
the afternoon. All of this cloudiness should dissipate heading
into the evening hours with loss of heating and with much drier
air advecting into the region, with clear skies and light
northeast winds expected overnight.

Specifics for KSTL: Bases of MVFR clouds over the area at midday
should climb above 3 kft over the next hour or so...with
additional thinning of the clouds producing sct-bkn deck 3-5kft
throughout the afternoon. The clouds should totally dissipate by
early this evening, leaving clear skies and light northeast winds
for the overnight hours and into Thursday morning.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     61  80  64  87 /   5   0   5  10
Quincy          57  79  60  85 /   0   0  30  40
Columbia        60  80  62  91 /   0   0  10  10
Jefferson City  60  81  61  91 /   0   0  10  10
Salem           56  79  58  86 /  10   0   0  10
Farmington      58  79  58  85 /  10   0   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX









000
FXUS63 KLSX 231748
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1248 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Several bands of post frontal st/sc as been drifting across the
CWA during the morning...one w-e band from s MO into s IL which
appears to be just behind surface boundary, and a secondary nw-se
oriented cloud deck which formed in the resdiually high moisture
content air north of the cold front that has been working wsw from
southwest and central IL, with the leading edge of this cloudiness
now approaching mid MO/COU area.

Believe with strong July sunshine and drier air advecting into the
region these clouds will gradually break up during the afternoon,
but process could be somewhat slow. Because of this, have backed
off on max temps a couple of degrees most areas.

Other concern for afternoon is thunderstorm threat. Between
1615z-1645z "arc" of echo has appeared over southeast sections of
the CWA from south of Greenville to near Ste. Genevieve, and this
appears to be associated with outflow from morning complex that
worked across far s IL. Don`t think this boundary will get too
much further north due to impact of southward oozing cold front,
but will use this to mark the northern edge of PoPs for this
afternoon. Any surface based storms that do manage to form west
of the Mississippi River will pose some threat of severe weather,
primarily in the form of high winds. This threat should be
confined to our far southern counties where MLCAPES are currently
near 3000 j/kg, with only a limited window of opportunity...roughly
18-20z.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Cold front to continue tracking south through forecast area this
morning, before exiting region early this afternoon. Despite decent
cap over area, could still see some isolated/scattered storms
develop as front moves through. Highest pops will be this morning
for southern half of cwa, then taper off rather quickly after 18z.
As for highs today, will range from the low 80s far north to around
90 far south. Drier/cooler air is lagging behind boundary, so with
dewpts still in the 70s could see heat indicies approaching 95 early
this afternoon.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

By tonight, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in drier and
cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Lows tonight will
be in the mid 50s to near 60. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper
70s to low 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
northern portions of forecast area late Thursday night through
Friday night. Then as main cold front moves into region on Saturday,
will see additional rounds of storms through Sunday before system
exits region Sunday night. Temperatures to moderate through the
weekend once again. Models are indicating 850 temps between 24C and
26C on Saturday and if they mix down, could see highs in the upper
90s for portions of the area. For now raised highs a few degrees for
Saturday, into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Beyond the weekend, surface ridge builds in once again for early
next week with highs cooling off into the upper 70s to mid 80s for
Monday and Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Band of post frontal st/sc that formed and/or advected into area
from sw and central IL has given all TAF sites but KCOU a very
definite autumn look throughout the morning. However, over the
last 90 minutes or so visible satellite pics indicate that this cloud
deck (which was roughly centered on a line from just w of KUIN to
near KSTL at 16z) is beginning to break up and ceilings are
beginning to rise. So...believe MVFR cigs in the STL metro should
climb aoa 3kft over the next hour or so...with sct-bkn clouds
3-5kft being the primary sky condition for most of the area during
the afternoon. All of this cloudiness should dissipate heading
into the evening hours with loss of heating and with much drier
air advecting into the region, with clear skies and light
northeast winds expected overnight.

Specifics for KSTL: Bases of MVFR clouds over the area at midday
should climb above 3 kft over the next hour or so...with
additional thinning of the clouds producing sct-bkn deck 3-5kft
throughout the afternoon. The clouds should totally dissipate by
early this evening, leaving clear skies and light northeast winds
for the overnight hours and into Thursday morning.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX









000
FXUS63 KLSX 231748
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1248 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Several bands of post frontal st/sc as been drifting across the
CWA during the morning...one w-e band from s MO into s IL which
appears to be just behind surface boundary, and a secondary nw-se
oriented cloud deck which formed in the resdiually high moisture
content air north of the cold front that has been working wsw from
southwest and central IL, with the leading edge of this cloudiness
now approaching mid MO/COU area.

Believe with strong July sunshine and drier air advecting into the
region these clouds will gradually break up during the afternoon,
but process could be somewhat slow. Because of this, have backed
off on max temps a couple of degrees most areas.

Other concern for afternoon is thunderstorm threat. Between
1615z-1645z "arc" of echo has appeared over southeast sections of
the CWA from south of Greenville to near Ste. Genevieve, and this
appears to be associated with outflow from morning complex that
worked across far s IL. Don`t think this boundary will get too
much further north due to impact of southward oozing cold front,
but will use this to mark the northern edge of PoPs for this
afternoon. Any surface based storms that do manage to form west
of the Mississippi River will pose some threat of severe weather,
primarily in the form of high winds. This threat should be
confined to our far southern counties where MLCAPES are currently
near 3000 j/kg, with only a limited window of opportunity...roughly
18-20z.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Cold front to continue tracking south through forecast area this
morning, before exiting region early this afternoon. Despite decent
cap over area, could still see some isolated/scattered storms
develop as front moves through. Highest pops will be this morning
for southern half of cwa, then taper off rather quickly after 18z.
As for highs today, will range from the low 80s far north to around
90 far south. Drier/cooler air is lagging behind boundary, so with
dewpts still in the 70s could see heat indicies approaching 95 early
this afternoon.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

By tonight, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in drier and
cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Lows tonight will
be in the mid 50s to near 60. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper
70s to low 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
northern portions of forecast area late Thursday night through
Friday night. Then as main cold front moves into region on Saturday,
will see additional rounds of storms through Sunday before system
exits region Sunday night. Temperatures to moderate through the
weekend once again. Models are indicating 850 temps between 24C and
26C on Saturday and if they mix down, could see highs in the upper
90s for portions of the area. For now raised highs a few degrees for
Saturday, into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Beyond the weekend, surface ridge builds in once again for early
next week with highs cooling off into the upper 70s to mid 80s for
Monday and Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Band of post frontal st/sc that formed and/or advected into area
from sw and central IL has given all TAF sites but KCOU a very
definite autumn look throughout the morning. However, over the
last 90 minutes or so visible satellite pics indicate that this cloud
deck (which was roughly centered on a line from just w of KUIN to
near KSTL at 16z) is beginning to break up and ceilings are
beginning to rise. So...believe MVFR cigs in the STL metro should
climb aoa 3kft over the next hour or so...with sct-bkn clouds
3-5kft being the primary sky condition for most of the area during
the afternoon. All of this cloudiness should dissipate heading
into the evening hours with loss of heating and with much drier
air advecting into the region, with clear skies and light
northeast winds expected overnight.

Specifics for KSTL: Bases of MVFR clouds over the area at midday
should climb above 3 kft over the next hour or so...with
additional thinning of the clouds producing sct-bkn deck 3-5kft
throughout the afternoon. The clouds should totally dissipate by
early this evening, leaving clear skies and light northeast winds
for the overnight hours and into Thursday morning.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 231657
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1157 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Several bands of post frontal st/sc as been drifting across the
CWA during the morning...one w-e band from s MO into s IL which
appears to be just behind surface boundary, and a secondary nw-se
oriented cloud deck which formed in the resdiually high moisture
content air north of the cold front that has been working wsw from
southwest and central IL, with the leading edge of this cloudiness
now approaching mid MO/COU area.

Believe with strong July sunshine and drier air advecting into the
region these clouds will gradually break up during the afternoon,
but process could be somewhat slow. Because of this, have backed
off on max temps a couple of degrees most areas.

Other concern for afternoon is thunderstorm threat. Between
1615z-1645z "arc" of echo has appeared over southeast sections of
the CWA from south of Greenville to near Ste. Genevieve, and this
appears to be associated with outflow from morning complex that
worked across far s IL. Don`t think this boundary will get too
much further north due to impact of southward oozing cold front,
but will use this to mark the northern edge of PoPs for this
afternoon. Any surface based storms that do manage to form west
of the Mississippi River will pose some threat of severe weather,
primarily in the form of high winds. This threat should be
confined to our far southern counties where MLCAPES are currently
near 3000 j/kg, with only a limited window of opportunity...roughly
18-20z.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Cold front to continue tracking south through forecast area this
morning, before exiting region early this afternoon. Despite decent
cap over area, could still see some isolated/scattered storms
develop as front moves through. Highest pops will be this morning
for southern half of cwa, then taper off rather quickly after 18z.
As for highs today, will range from the low 80s far north to around
90 far south. Drier/cooler air is lagging behind boundary, so with
dewpts still in the 70s could see heat indicies approaching 95 early
this afternoon.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

By tonight, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in drier and
cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Lows tonight will
be in the mid 50s to near 60. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper
70s to low 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
northern portions of forecast area late Thursday night through
Friday night. Then as main cold front moves into region on Saturday,
will see additional rounds of storms through Sunday before system
exits region Sunday night. Temperatures to moderate through the
weekend once again. Models are indicating 850 temps between 24C and
26C on Saturday and if they mix down, could see highs in the upper
90s for portions of the area. For now raised highs a few degrees for
Saturday, into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Beyond the weekend, surface ridge builds in once again for early
next week with highs cooling off into the upper 70s to mid 80s for
Monday and Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Cold front came through terminals overnight and skies are mostly
clear behind the front as of now. Should see at least scattered
diurnal cumulus develop as wind begins to increase from the north-
northeast. VFR conditions will prevail through tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions with north-northeast wind today.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 231657
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1157 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Several bands of post frontal st/sc as been drifting across the
CWA during the morning...one w-e band from s MO into s IL which
appears to be just behind surface boundary, and a secondary nw-se
oriented cloud deck which formed in the resdiually high moisture
content air north of the cold front that has been working wsw from
southwest and central IL, with the leading edge of this cloudiness
now approaching mid MO/COU area.

Believe with strong July sunshine and drier air advecting into the
region these clouds will gradually break up during the afternoon,
but process could be somewhat slow. Because of this, have backed
off on max temps a couple of degrees most areas.

Other concern for afternoon is thunderstorm threat. Between
1615z-1645z "arc" of echo has appeared over southeast sections of
the CWA from south of Greenville to near Ste. Genevieve, and this
appears to be associated with outflow from morning complex that
worked across far s IL. Don`t think this boundary will get too
much further north due to impact of southward oozing cold front,
but will use this to mark the northern edge of PoPs for this
afternoon. Any surface based storms that do manage to form west
of the Mississippi River will pose some threat of severe weather,
primarily in the form of high winds. This threat should be
confined to our far southern counties where MLCAPES are currently
near 3000 j/kg, with only a limited window of opportunity...roughly
18-20z.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Cold front to continue tracking south through forecast area this
morning, before exiting region early this afternoon. Despite decent
cap over area, could still see some isolated/scattered storms
develop as front moves through. Highest pops will be this morning
for southern half of cwa, then taper off rather quickly after 18z.
As for highs today, will range from the low 80s far north to around
90 far south. Drier/cooler air is lagging behind boundary, so with
dewpts still in the 70s could see heat indicies approaching 95 early
this afternoon.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

By tonight, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in drier and
cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Lows tonight will
be in the mid 50s to near 60. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper
70s to low 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
northern portions of forecast area late Thursday night through
Friday night. Then as main cold front moves into region on Saturday,
will see additional rounds of storms through Sunday before system
exits region Sunday night. Temperatures to moderate through the
weekend once again. Models are indicating 850 temps between 24C and
26C on Saturday and if they mix down, could see highs in the upper
90s for portions of the area. For now raised highs a few degrees for
Saturday, into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Beyond the weekend, surface ridge builds in once again for early
next week with highs cooling off into the upper 70s to mid 80s for
Monday and Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Cold front came through terminals overnight and skies are mostly
clear behind the front as of now. Should see at least scattered
diurnal cumulus develop as wind begins to increase from the north-
northeast. VFR conditions will prevail through tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions with north-northeast wind today.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 231124
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
624 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Cold front to continue tracking south through forecast area this
morning, before exiting region early this afternoon. Despite decent
cap over area, could still see some isolated/scattered storms
develop as front moves through. Highest pops will be this morning
for southern half of cwa, then taper off rather quickly after 18z.
As for highs today, will range from the low 80s far north to around
90 far south. Drier/cooler air is lagging behind boundary, so with
dewpts still in the 70s could see heat indicies approaching 95 early
this afternoon.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

By tonight, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in drier and
cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Lows tonight will
be in the mid 50s to near 60. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper
70s to low 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
northern portions of forecast area late Thursday night through
Friday night. Then as main cold front moves into region on Saturday,
will see additional rounds of storms through Sunday before system
exits region Sunday night. Temperatures to moderate through the
weekend once again. Models are indicating 850 temps between 24C and
26C on Saturday and if they mix down, could see highs in the upper
90s for portions of the area. For now raised highs a few degrees for
Saturday, into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Beyond the weekend, surface ridge builds in once again for early
next week with highs cooling off into the upper 70s to mid 80s for
Monday and Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Cold front came through terminals overnight and skies are mostly
clear behind the front as of now. Should see at least scattered
diurnal cumulus develop as wind begins to increase from the north-
northeast. VFR conditions will prevail through tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions with north-northeast wind today.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 231124
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
624 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Cold front to continue tracking south through forecast area this
morning, before exiting region early this afternoon. Despite decent
cap over area, could still see some isolated/scattered storms
develop as front moves through. Highest pops will be this morning
for southern half of cwa, then taper off rather quickly after 18z.
As for highs today, will range from the low 80s far north to around
90 far south. Drier/cooler air is lagging behind boundary, so with
dewpts still in the 70s could see heat indicies approaching 95 early
this afternoon.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

By tonight, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in drier and
cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Lows tonight will
be in the mid 50s to near 60. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper
70s to low 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
northern portions of forecast area late Thursday night through
Friday night. Then as main cold front moves into region on Saturday,
will see additional rounds of storms through Sunday before system
exits region Sunday night. Temperatures to moderate through the
weekend once again. Models are indicating 850 temps between 24C and
26C on Saturday and if they mix down, could see highs in the upper
90s for portions of the area. For now raised highs a few degrees for
Saturday, into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Beyond the weekend, surface ridge builds in once again for early
next week with highs cooling off into the upper 70s to mid 80s for
Monday and Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Cold front came through terminals overnight and skies are mostly
clear behind the front as of now. Should see at least scattered
diurnal cumulus develop as wind begins to increase from the north-
northeast. VFR conditions will prevail through tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions with north-northeast wind today.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 230832
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
332 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Cold front to continue tracking south through forecast area this
morning, before exiting region early this afternoon. Despite decent
cap over area, could still see some isolated/scattered storms
develop as front moves through. Highest pops will be this morning
for southern half of cwa, then taper off rather quickly after 18z.
As for highs today, will range from the low 80s far north to around
90 far south. Drier/cooler air is lagging behind boundary, so with
dewpts still in the 70s could see heat indicies approaching 95 early
this afternoon.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

By tonight, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in drier and
cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Lows tonight will
be in the mid 50s to near 60. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper
70s to low 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
northern portions of forecast area late Thursday night through
Friday night. Then as main cold front moves into region on Saturday,
will see additional rounds of storms through Sunday before system
exits region Sunday night. Temperatures to moderate through the
weekend once again. Models are indicating 850 temps between 24C and
26C on Saturday and if they mix down, could see highs in the upper
90s for portions of the area. For now raised highs a few degrees for
Saturday, into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Beyond the weekend, surface ridge builds in once again for early
next week with highs cooling off into the upper 70s to mid 80s for
Monday and Tuesday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

TSTMs have struggled to maintain vs a strong cap this evening.
don`t expect much to change overnight with isld activity
continuing thru the night. Removed prevailing thunder group
completely from KCOU and KUIN and changed to VCTS at STL metro
sites at a later time. Band of CIGS near 2.5kft has dvlpd just
behind the front...as indicated by the models...across nthrn MO
and on into cntrl/nthrn IL. Expect this to follow the front south
overnight and possibly expand some. MVFR fog is also possible
towards mrng with a moist bndry lyr in place. Otherwise...expect
diurnal cu and N/NNE winds aob 12kts.

Specifics for KSTL:

Coverage for TSTMs has been minimal this evng as the convection
struggles to survive against a strong cap...so have a VCTS group
to cover the threat. A band of post frontal high end MVFR CIGs
has dvlpd across nthrn IL and cntrl IL. This should push S in
concert with the front. Otherwise...expect diurnal cu and a N/NNE
wind aob 12kts.

2%
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 230832
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
332 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Cold front to continue tracking south through forecast area this
morning, before exiting region early this afternoon. Despite decent
cap over area, could still see some isolated/scattered storms
develop as front moves through. Highest pops will be this morning
for southern half of cwa, then taper off rather quickly after 18z.
As for highs today, will range from the low 80s far north to around
90 far south. Drier/cooler air is lagging behind boundary, so with
dewpts still in the 70s could see heat indicies approaching 95 early
this afternoon.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

By tonight, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in drier and
cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Lows tonight will
be in the mid 50s to near 60. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper
70s to low 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
northern portions of forecast area late Thursday night through
Friday night. Then as main cold front moves into region on Saturday,
will see additional rounds of storms through Sunday before system
exits region Sunday night. Temperatures to moderate through the
weekend once again. Models are indicating 850 temps between 24C and
26C on Saturday and if they mix down, could see highs in the upper
90s for portions of the area. For now raised highs a few degrees for
Saturday, into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Beyond the weekend, surface ridge builds in once again for early
next week with highs cooling off into the upper 70s to mid 80s for
Monday and Tuesday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

TSTMs have struggled to maintain vs a strong cap this evening.
don`t expect much to change overnight with isld activity
continuing thru the night. Removed prevailing thunder group
completely from KCOU and KUIN and changed to VCTS at STL metro
sites at a later time. Band of CIGS near 2.5kft has dvlpd just
behind the front...as indicated by the models...across nthrn MO
and on into cntrl/nthrn IL. Expect this to follow the front south
overnight and possibly expand some. MVFR fog is also possible
towards mrng with a moist bndry lyr in place. Otherwise...expect
diurnal cu and N/NNE winds aob 12kts.

Specifics for KSTL:

Coverage for TSTMs has been minimal this evng as the convection
struggles to survive against a strong cap...so have a VCTS group
to cover the threat. A band of post frontal high end MVFR CIGs
has dvlpd across nthrn IL and cntrl IL. This should push S in
concert with the front. Otherwise...expect diurnal cu and a N/NNE
wind aob 12kts.

2%
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 230458
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

There is a considerable amount of uncertainty in the convective
evolution and coverage tonight. Dew points in the 70s, strong
heating and steep mid level lapse rates are currently contributing
to SBCAPE of 3500-6000 j/kg across the northwest 2/3rds of the CWA
with the highest values across central and north central MO. There
also is a significant cap in place due to warm mid level temperatures.
The big question is when and how much of the cap will be reduced
as the front moves southward out of Iowa and southeast Nebraska
into northern MO this evening. Model solutions including the
convection allowing models are quite varied on QPF and implied
coverage. Recent runs of the HRRR are quite stingy on coverage
with isolated storms at best. I don`t have a great feel for what
is going to occur, but the deterministic models suggest that height
falls/cooling aloft should be sufficient to weaken the cap and
allow for scattered development along front, mainly late this
evening and especially overnight. I have attempted to follow this
trend with the greatest coverage along/east of the MS river. The
severe threat is conditional on development early enough this
evening to realize the big CAPE, and the main threat would appear
to be damaging winds given the warm air aloft.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The cold front should lie roughly from south central IL to near
St. Louis into southwest MO at 12z and exit the CWA by early
afternoon. There will continue to be a threat of scattered showers
and storms ahead of the advancing front. Temperatures should be
cooler tomorrow with the main thrust of cooling and drying in the
afternoon. Unseasonably deep upper troffing in the eastern U.S.
will keep a large surface high dominating the area Wednesday night
into Friday, with most of this period dominated by lower humidity
and below average temperatures.

Beginning late Thursday night and into Friday the threat of precipitation
will return in association with elevated showers/thunderstorms due to
strong warm advection/moisture transport via a southwesterly LLJ ahead
of the slowly retreating warm front and in association with impulses
aloft dropping southeastward along the eastern periphery of the
upper high. A cold front will then drop through the area Saturday
afternoon-Sunday as a upper trof digs southeastward from the upper
MS valley and into the Great Lakes bringing another threat of
showers and thunderstorms. This upper wave will be part of large
scale amplification of the upper air pattern across NOAM and will
feature another deep trof over the eastern U.S. through the first
part of next week and send out July with another period of below
average temperatures.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

TSTMs have struggled to maintain vs a strong cap this evening.
don`t expect much to change overnight with isld activity
continuing thru the night. Removed prevailing thunder group
completely from KCOU and KUIN and changed to VCTS at STL metro
sites at a later time. Band of CIGS near 2.5kft has dvlpd just
behind the front...as indicated by the models...across nthrn MO
and on into cntrl/nthrn IL. Expect this to follow the front south
overnight and possibly expand some. MVFR fog is also possible
towards mrng with a moist bndry lyr in place. Otherwise...expect
diurnal cu and N/NNE winds aob 12kts.

Specifics for KSTL:

Coverage for TSTMs has been minimal this evng as the convection
struggles to survive against a strong cap...so have a VCTS group
to cover the threat. A band of post frontal high end MVFR CIGs
has dvlpd across nthrn IL and cntrl IL. This should push S in
concert with the front. Otherwise...expect diurnal cu and a N/NNE
wind aob 12kts.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 230458
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

There is a considerable amount of uncertainty in the convective
evolution and coverage tonight. Dew points in the 70s, strong
heating and steep mid level lapse rates are currently contributing
to SBCAPE of 3500-6000 j/kg across the northwest 2/3rds of the CWA
with the highest values across central and north central MO. There
also is a significant cap in place due to warm mid level temperatures.
The big question is when and how much of the cap will be reduced
as the front moves southward out of Iowa and southeast Nebraska
into northern MO this evening. Model solutions including the
convection allowing models are quite varied on QPF and implied
coverage. Recent runs of the HRRR are quite stingy on coverage
with isolated storms at best. I don`t have a great feel for what
is going to occur, but the deterministic models suggest that height
falls/cooling aloft should be sufficient to weaken the cap and
allow for scattered development along front, mainly late this
evening and especially overnight. I have attempted to follow this
trend with the greatest coverage along/east of the MS river. The
severe threat is conditional on development early enough this
evening to realize the big CAPE, and the main threat would appear
to be damaging winds given the warm air aloft.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The cold front should lie roughly from south central IL to near
St. Louis into southwest MO at 12z and exit the CWA by early
afternoon. There will continue to be a threat of scattered showers
and storms ahead of the advancing front. Temperatures should be
cooler tomorrow with the main thrust of cooling and drying in the
afternoon. Unseasonably deep upper troffing in the eastern U.S.
will keep a large surface high dominating the area Wednesday night
into Friday, with most of this period dominated by lower humidity
and below average temperatures.

Beginning late Thursday night and into Friday the threat of precipitation
will return in association with elevated showers/thunderstorms due to
strong warm advection/moisture transport via a southwesterly LLJ ahead
of the slowly retreating warm front and in association with impulses
aloft dropping southeastward along the eastern periphery of the
upper high. A cold front will then drop through the area Saturday
afternoon-Sunday as a upper trof digs southeastward from the upper
MS valley and into the Great Lakes bringing another threat of
showers and thunderstorms. This upper wave will be part of large
scale amplification of the upper air pattern across NOAM and will
feature another deep trof over the eastern U.S. through the first
part of next week and send out July with another period of below
average temperatures.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

TSTMs have struggled to maintain vs a strong cap this evening.
don`t expect much to change overnight with isld activity
continuing thru the night. Removed prevailing thunder group
completely from KCOU and KUIN and changed to VCTS at STL metro
sites at a later time. Band of CIGS near 2.5kft has dvlpd just
behind the front...as indicated by the models...across nthrn MO
and on into cntrl/nthrn IL. Expect this to follow the front south
overnight and possibly expand some. MVFR fog is also possible
towards mrng with a moist bndry lyr in place. Otherwise...expect
diurnal cu and N/NNE winds aob 12kts.

Specifics for KSTL:

Coverage for TSTMs has been minimal this evng as the convection
struggles to survive against a strong cap...so have a VCTS group
to cover the threat. A band of post frontal high end MVFR CIGs
has dvlpd across nthrn IL and cntrl IL. This should push S in
concert with the front. Otherwise...expect diurnal cu and a N/NNE
wind aob 12kts.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 230008
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
708 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

There is a considerable amount of uncertainty in the convective
evolution and coverage tonight. Dew points in the 70s, strong
heating and steep mid level lapse rates are currently contributing
to SBCAPE of 3500-6000 j/kg across the northwest 2/3rds of the CWA
with the highest values across central and north central MO. There
also is a significant cap in place due to warm mid level temperatures.
The big question is when and how much of the cap will be reduced
as the front moves southward out of Iowa and southeast Nebraska
into northern MO this evening. Model solutions including the
convection allowing models are quite varied on QPF and implied
coverage. Recent runs of the HRRR are quite stingy on coverage
with isolated storms at best. I don`t have a great feel for what
is going to occur, but the deterministic models suggest that height
falls/cooling aloft should be sufficient to weaken the cap and
allow for scattered development along front, mainly late this
evening and especially overnight. I have attempted to follow this
trend with the greatest coverage along/east of the MS river. The
severe threat is conditional on development early enough this
evening to realize the big CAPE, and the main threat would appear
to be damaging winds given the warm air aloft.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The cold front should lie roughly from south central IL to near
St. Louis into southwest MO at 12z and exit the CWA by early
afternoon. There will continue to be a threat of scattered showers
and storms ahead of the advancing front. Temperatures should be
cooler tomorrow with the main thrust of cooling and drying in the
afternoon. Unseasonably deep upper troffing in the eastern U.S.
will keep a large surface high dominating the area Wednesday night
into Friday, with most of this period dominated by lower humidity
and below average temperatures.

Beginning late Thursday night and into Friday the threat of precipitation
will return in association with elevated showers/thunderstorms due to
strong warm advection/moisture transport via a southwesterly LLJ ahead
of the slowly retreating warm front and in association with impulses
aloft dropping southeastward along the eastern periphery of the
upper high. A cold front will then drop through the area Saturday
afternoon-Sunday as a upper trof digs southeastward from the upper
MS valley and into the Great Lakes bringing another threat of
showers and thunderstorms. This upper wave will be part of large
scale amplification of the upper air pattern across NOAM and will
feature another deep trof over the eastern U.S. through the first
part of next week and send out July with another period of below
average temperatures.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Focus remains on thunder potential this evening into the overnight
and possible MVFR CIGs Wednesday morning. Storms are expected to
form along a cold front that currently stretches from ern IA into
NW MO then into NE KS. TSTMs are fcst to dvlp later this evng and
push slowly SE. Think storms will eventually dvlp...but not
confident on coverage or any particular cell impacting one of the
terminals. The front is relatively weak and moving slowly...so it
will take most of the night for it to clear the terminals. This
means that storms may take longer to clear a terminal than is
currently indicated. TSTMs are expected to dvlp along the front
again tomorrow aftn/evng...but should be well south of the
terminals by then. There is the potential for some post frontal
high end MVFR stratus/stratocu Wednesday morning. If it
dvlps...should not last long...burning off by mid/late mrng. If
any terminal gets rain this evng or overnight...there is the
potential for fog by morning as the bndry lyr remains quite moist
behind the front...esp if the expected low clouds do not form.
Beyond tomorrow morning...diurnal cu and a N/NNE breeze as high
pressure builds into the region.

Specifics for KSTL:

Possible for TSTMs overnight...but not sure of the coverage. There
is the potential for storms to remain near the terminal later than
indicated based on the slow mvmnt of the front. Models indicate
the potential for high end MVFR clouds towards 12Z...but again not
confident on this scenario. If the terminal did get rain...then
fog might be possible given the moist bndry layer behind the
front...esp if the lower clouds do not form.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 222046
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

There is a considerable amount of uncertainty in the convective
evolution and coverage tonight. Dew points in the 70s, strong
heating and steep mid level lapse rates are currently contributing
to SBCAPE of 3500-6000 j/kg across the northwest 2/3rds of the CWA
with the highest values across central and north central MO. There
also is a significant cap in place due to warm mid level temperatures.
The big question is when and how much of the cap will be reduced
as the front moves southward out of Iowa and southeast Nebraska
into northern MO this evening. Model solutions including the
convection allowing models are quite varied on QPF and implied
coverage. Recent runs of the HRRR are quite stingy on coverage
with isolated storms at best. I don`t have a great feel for what
is going to occur, but the deterministic models suggest that height
falls/cooling aloft should be sufficient to weaken the cap and
allow for scattered development along front, mainly late this
evening and especially overnight. I have attempted to follow this
trend with the greatest coverage along/east of the MS river. The
severe threat is conditional on development early enough this
evening to realize the big CAPE, and the main threat would appear
to be damaging winds given the warm air aloft.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The cold front should lie roughly from south central IL to near
St. Louis into southwest MO at 12z and exit the CWA by early
afternoon. There will continue to be a threat of scattered showers
and storms ahead of the advancing front. Temperatures should be
cooler tomorrow with the main thrust of cooling and drying in the
afternoon. Unseasonably deep upper troffing in the eastern U.S.
will keep a large surface high dominating the area Wednesday night
into Friday, with most of this period dominated by lower humidity
and below average temperatures.

Beginning late Thursday night and into Friday the threat of precipitation
will return in association with elevated showers/thundestorms due to
strong warm advection/moisture transport via a southwesterly LLJ ahead
of the slowly retreating warm front and in association with impulses
aloft dropping southeastward along the eastern periphery of the
upper high. A cold front will then drop through the area Saturday
afternoon-Sunday as a upper trof digs southeastward from the upper
MS valley and into the Great Lakes bringing another threat of
showers and thunderstorms. This upper wave will be part of large
scale amplification of the upper air pattern across NOAM and will
feature another deep trof over the eastern U.S. through the first
part of next week and send out July with another period of below
average temperatures.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Upper level high retreating some to the west will allow fairly
strong short wave to drop into into the eastern US bringing
northwest flow back to the region. Associated surface cold front
will move through late tonight and Wednesday morning. Forecast
issue is when, where and if thunderstorms develop. Cooling aloft
has to occur before the instability disappears. No model is
convincing enough toexclusively follow. Have blended and followed
previous forecast putting storm at UIN about 00z and gradually
moving south, into STL at 06z. Models and soundings suggest some
mvfr cielings wednesday am.

Specifics for KSTL: Nothing out there has convinced me to change the
previous forecast. CWSU concurs to keep the prevailing
thunderstorms from 06 - 08z...with a couple of hours of mvfr
ceilings Wednesday am.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 222046
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

There is a considerable amount of uncertainty in the convective
evolution and coverage tonight. Dew points in the 70s, strong
heating and steep mid level lapse rates are currently contributing
to SBCAPE of 3500-6000 j/kg across the northwest 2/3rds of the CWA
with the highest values across central and north central MO. There
also is a significant cap in place due to warm mid level temperatures.
The big question is when and how much of the cap will be reduced
as the front moves southward out of Iowa and southeast Nebraska
into northern MO this evening. Model solutions including the
convection allowing models are quite varied on QPF and implied
coverage. Recent runs of the HRRR are quite stingy on coverage
with isolated storms at best. I don`t have a great feel for what
is going to occur, but the deterministic models suggest that height
falls/cooling aloft should be sufficient to weaken the cap and
allow for scattered development along front, mainly late this
evening and especially overnight. I have attempted to follow this
trend with the greatest coverage along/east of the MS river. The
severe threat is conditional on development early enough this
evening to realize the big CAPE, and the main threat would appear
to be damaging winds given the warm air aloft.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The cold front should lie roughly from south central IL to near
St. Louis into southwest MO at 12z and exit the CWA by early
afternoon. There will continue to be a threat of scattered showers
and storms ahead of the advancing front. Temperatures should be
cooler tomorrow with the main thrust of cooling and drying in the
afternoon. Unseasonably deep upper troffing in the eastern U.S.
will keep a large surface high dominating the area Wednesday night
into Friday, with most of this period dominated by lower humidity
and below average temperatures.

Beginning late Thursday night and into Friday the threat of precipitation
will return in association with elevated showers/thundestorms due to
strong warm advection/moisture transport via a southwesterly LLJ ahead
of the slowly retreating warm front and in association with impulses
aloft dropping southeastward along the eastern periphery of the
upper high. A cold front will then drop through the area Saturday
afternoon-Sunday as a upper trof digs southeastward from the upper
MS valley and into the Great Lakes bringing another threat of
showers and thunderstorms. This upper wave will be part of large
scale amplification of the upper air pattern across NOAM and will
feature another deep trof over the eastern U.S. through the first
part of next week and send out July with another period of below
average temperatures.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Upper level high retreating some to the west will allow fairly
strong short wave to drop into into the eastern US bringing
northwest flow back to the region. Associated surface cold front
will move through late tonight and Wednesday morning. Forecast
issue is when, where and if thunderstorms develop. Cooling aloft
has to occur before the instability disappears. No model is
convincing enough toexclusively follow. Have blended and followed
previous forecast putting storm at UIN about 00z and gradually
moving south, into STL at 06z. Models and soundings suggest some
mvfr cielings wednesday am.

Specifics for KSTL: Nothing out there has convinced me to change the
previous forecast. CWSU concurs to keep the prevailing
thunderstorms from 06 - 08z...with a couple of hours of mvfr
ceilings Wednesday am.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 221839
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
139 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 728 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Updated forecast for northeast MO and west central IL this morning
as isolated thunderstorms (some quite strong) continue to develop
in southeast IA and drift toward the northern reaches of the CWA.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

During the day today the upper ridge will remain in place with
surface temperatures expected to warm up into the low to mid 90s.
Low level moisture continues to increase as well, so will see heat
indicies between 100 and 105 for central and northeast MO as well as
west central IL.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

In the meantime, cold front associated with next weather system
to move into far northern portions of MO by 00z Wednesday. Short
term models begin to develop complex along frontal boundary around
this time and track it to the south and southeast through forecast
area tonight. Some differences on timing and coverage between the
models, so went with a blend and increased pops to likely late
this evening and into the overnight hours as it moves through.
Despite all of the instability and moisture, some concern about
mid level capping, but confident cap will weaken sufficiently to
allow storm development. With decent capes, moisture and
instability, SPC has placed northern portions of forecast area in
a slight risk for tonight with main threats being large hail and
damaging winds.

System to continue tracking south through southern portions of
forecast area Wednesday morning, before tapering off Wednesday
afternoon. As for highs on Wednesday, will range from the low 80s
far north to around 90 far south.

By Wednesday night, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in
drier and cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Highs
on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
portions of forecast area Friday and Friday night. Then as main cold
front moves into region on Saturday, will see additional rounds of
storms through Sunday night before system exits region on Monday.
Temperatures to moderate through the weekend once again.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Upper level high retreating some to the west will allow fairly
strong short wave to drop into into the eastern US bringing
northwest flow back to the region. Associated surface cold front
will move through late tonight and Wednesday morning. Forecast
issue is when, where and if thunderstorms develop. Cooling aloft
has to occur before the instability disappears. No model is
convincing enough toexclusively follow. Have blended and followed
previous forecast putting storm at UIN about 00z and gradually
moving south, into STL at 06z. Models and soundings suggest some
mvfr cielings wednesday am.

Specifics for KSTL: Nothing out there has convinced me to change the
previous forecast. CWSU concurs to keep the prevailing
thunderstorms from 06 - 08z...with a couple of hours of mvfr
ceilings Wednesday am.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 221839
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
139 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 728 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Updated forecast for northeast MO and west central IL this morning
as isolated thunderstorms (some quite strong) continue to develop
in southeast IA and drift toward the northern reaches of the CWA.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

During the day today the upper ridge will remain in place with
surface temperatures expected to warm up into the low to mid 90s.
Low level moisture continues to increase as well, so will see heat
indicies between 100 and 105 for central and northeast MO as well as
west central IL.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

In the meantime, cold front associated with next weather system
to move into far northern portions of MO by 00z Wednesday. Short
term models begin to develop complex along frontal boundary around
this time and track it to the south and southeast through forecast
area tonight. Some differences on timing and coverage between the
models, so went with a blend and increased pops to likely late
this evening and into the overnight hours as it moves through.
Despite all of the instability and moisture, some concern about
mid level capping, but confident cap will weaken sufficiently to
allow storm development. With decent capes, moisture and
instability, SPC has placed northern portions of forecast area in
a slight risk for tonight with main threats being large hail and
damaging winds.

System to continue tracking south through southern portions of
forecast area Wednesday morning, before tapering off Wednesday
afternoon. As for highs on Wednesday, will range from the low 80s
far north to around 90 far south.

By Wednesday night, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in
drier and cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Highs
on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
portions of forecast area Friday and Friday night. Then as main cold
front moves into region on Saturday, will see additional rounds of
storms through Sunday night before system exits region on Monday.
Temperatures to moderate through the weekend once again.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Upper level high retreating some to the west will allow fairly
strong short wave to drop into into the eastern US bringing
northwest flow back to the region. Associated surface cold front
will move through late tonight and Wednesday morning. Forecast
issue is when, where and if thunderstorms develop. Cooling aloft
has to occur before the instability disappears. No model is
convincing enough toexclusively follow. Have blended and followed
previous forecast putting storm at UIN about 00z and gradually
moving south, into STL at 06z. Models and soundings suggest some
mvfr cielings wednesday am.

Specifics for KSTL: Nothing out there has convinced me to change the
previous forecast. CWSU concurs to keep the prevailing
thunderstorms from 06 - 08z...with a couple of hours of mvfr
ceilings Wednesday am.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 221229
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
729 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 728 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Updated forecast for northeast MO and west central IL this morning
as isolated thunderstorms (some quite strong) continue to develop
in southeast IA and drift toward the northern reaches of the CWA.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

During the day today the upper ridge will remain in place with
surface temperatures expected to warm up into the low to mid 90s.
Low level moisture continues to increase as well, so will see heat
indicies between 100 and 105 for central and northeast MO as well as
west central IL.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

In the meantime, cold front associated with next weather system
to move into far northern portions of MO by 00z Wednesday. Short
term models begin to develop complex along frontal boundary around
this time and track it to the south and southeast through forecast
area tonight. Some differences on timing and coverage between the
models, so went with a blend and increased pops to likely late
this evening and into the overnight hours as it moves through.
Despite all of the instability and moisture, some concern about
mid level capping, but confident cap will weaken sufficiently to
allow storm development. With decent capes, moisture and
instability, SPC has placed northern portions of forecast area in
a slight risk for tonight with main threats being large hail and
damaging winds.

System to continue tracking south through southern portions of
forecast area Wednesday morning, before tapering off Wednesday
afternoon. As for highs on Wednesday, will range from the low 80s
far north to around 90 far south.

By Wednesday night, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in
drier and cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Highs
on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
portions of forecast area Friday and Friday night. Then as main cold
front moves into region on Saturday, will see additional rounds of
storms through Sunday night before system exits region on Monday.
Temperatures to moderate through the weekend once again.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

VFR conditions are anticipated today with southwest wind around
10KT. Cold front will move across the area this evening and
overnight with thunderstorms expected to develop along and ahead
of the front. Conditions could dip into MVFR range with
thunderstorms, otherwise a wind shift to the northwest will occur
with the front.

Specifics for KSTL:
Expect thunderstorm complex ahead of the cold front will move
across the terminal around 06Z with a temporary reduction in
visibility, a wind shift to the northwest and potential for some
gusts to 25KT. Conditions will rapidly improve on Wednesday with
north wind.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 221229
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
729 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 728 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Updated forecast for northeast MO and west central IL this morning
as isolated thunderstorms (some quite strong) continue to develop
in southeast IA and drift toward the northern reaches of the CWA.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

During the day today the upper ridge will remain in place with
surface temperatures expected to warm up into the low to mid 90s.
Low level moisture continues to increase as well, so will see heat
indicies between 100 and 105 for central and northeast MO as well as
west central IL.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

In the meantime, cold front associated with next weather system
to move into far northern portions of MO by 00z Wednesday. Short
term models begin to develop complex along frontal boundary around
this time and track it to the south and southeast through forecast
area tonight. Some differences on timing and coverage between the
models, so went with a blend and increased pops to likely late
this evening and into the overnight hours as it moves through.
Despite all of the instability and moisture, some concern about
mid level capping, but confident cap will weaken sufficiently to
allow storm development. With decent capes, moisture and
instability, SPC has placed northern portions of forecast area in
a slight risk for tonight with main threats being large hail and
damaging winds.

System to continue tracking south through southern portions of
forecast area Wednesday morning, before tapering off Wednesday
afternoon. As for highs on Wednesday, will range from the low 80s
far north to around 90 far south.

By Wednesday night, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in
drier and cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Highs
on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
portions of forecast area Friday and Friday night. Then as main cold
front moves into region on Saturday, will see additional rounds of
storms through Sunday night before system exits region on Monday.
Temperatures to moderate through the weekend once again.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

VFR conditions are anticipated today with southwest wind around
10KT. Cold front will move across the area this evening and
overnight with thunderstorms expected to develop along and ahead
of the front. Conditions could dip into MVFR range with
thunderstorms, otherwise a wind shift to the northwest will occur
with the front.

Specifics for KSTL:
Expect thunderstorm complex ahead of the cold front will move
across the terminal around 06Z with a temporary reduction in
visibility, a wind shift to the northwest and potential for some
gusts to 25KT. Conditions will rapidly improve on Wednesday with
north wind.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 221110
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
610 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

During the day today the upper ridge will remain in place with
surface temperatures expected to warm up into the low to mid 90s.
Low level moisture continues to increase as well, so will see heat
indicies between 100 and 105 for central and northeast MO as well as
west central IL.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

In the meantime, cold front associated with next weather system
to move into far northern portions of MO by 00z Wednesday. Short
term models begin to develop complex along frontal boundary around
this time and track it to the south and southeast through forecast
area tonight. Some differences on timing and coverage between the
models, so went with a blend and increased pops to likely late
this evening and into the overnight hours as it moves through.
Despite all of the instability and moisture, some concern about
mid level capping, but confident cap will weaken sufficiently to
allow storm development. With decent capes, moisture and
instability, SPC has placed northern portions of forecast area in
a slight risk for tonight with main threats being large hail and
damaging winds.

System to continue tracking south through southern portions of
forecast area Wednesday morning, before tapering off Wednesday
afternoon. As for highs on Wednesday, will range from the low 80s
far north to around 90 far south.

By Wednesday night, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in
drier and cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Highs
on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
portions of forecast area Friday and Friday night. Then as main cold
front moves into region on Saturday, will see additional rounds of
storms through Sunday night before system exits region on Monday.
Temperatures to moderate through the weekend once again.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

VFR conditions are anticipated today with southwest wind around
10KT. Cold front will move across the area this evening and
overnight with thunderstorms expected to develop along and ahead
of the front. Conditions could dip into MVFR range with
thunderstorms, otherwise a wind shift to the northwest will occur
with the front.

Specifics for KSTL:
Expect thunderstorm complex ahead of the cold front will move
across the terminal around 06Z with a temporary reduction in
visibility, a wind shift to the northwest and potential for some
gusts to 25KT. Conditions will rapidly improve on Wednesday with
north wind.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 221110
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
610 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

During the day today the upper ridge will remain in place with
surface temperatures expected to warm up into the low to mid 90s.
Low level moisture continues to increase as well, so will see heat
indicies between 100 and 105 for central and northeast MO as well as
west central IL.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

In the meantime, cold front associated with next weather system
to move into far northern portions of MO by 00z Wednesday. Short
term models begin to develop complex along frontal boundary around
this time and track it to the south and southeast through forecast
area tonight. Some differences on timing and coverage between the
models, so went with a blend and increased pops to likely late
this evening and into the overnight hours as it moves through.
Despite all of the instability and moisture, some concern about
mid level capping, but confident cap will weaken sufficiently to
allow storm development. With decent capes, moisture and
instability, SPC has placed northern portions of forecast area in
a slight risk for tonight with main threats being large hail and
damaging winds.

System to continue tracking south through southern portions of
forecast area Wednesday morning, before tapering off Wednesday
afternoon. As for highs on Wednesday, will range from the low 80s
far north to around 90 far south.

By Wednesday night, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in
drier and cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Highs
on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
portions of forecast area Friday and Friday night. Then as main cold
front moves into region on Saturday, will see additional rounds of
storms through Sunday night before system exits region on Monday.
Temperatures to moderate through the weekend once again.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

VFR conditions are anticipated today with southwest wind around
10KT. Cold front will move across the area this evening and
overnight with thunderstorms expected to develop along and ahead
of the front. Conditions could dip into MVFR range with
thunderstorms, otherwise a wind shift to the northwest will occur
with the front.

Specifics for KSTL:
Expect thunderstorm complex ahead of the cold front will move
across the terminal around 06Z with a temporary reduction in
visibility, a wind shift to the northwest and potential for some
gusts to 25KT. Conditions will rapidly improve on Wednesday with
north wind.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220849
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
349 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

During the day today the upper ridge will remain in place with
surface temperatures expected to warm up into the low to mid 90s.
Low level moisture continues to increase as well, so will see heat
indicies between 100 and 105 for central and northeast MO as well as
west central IL.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

In the meantime, cold front associated with next weather system
to move into far northern portions of MO by 00z Wednesday. Short
term models begin to develop complex along frontal boundary around
this time and track it to the south and southeast through forecast
area tonight. Some differences on timing and coverage between the
models, so went with a blend and increased pops to likely late
this evening and into the overnight hours as it moves through.
Despite all of the instability and moisture, some concern about
mid level capping, but confident cap will weaken sufficiently to
allow storm development. With decent capes, moisture and
instability, SPC has placed northern portions of forecast area in
a slight risk for tonight with main threats being large hail and
damaging winds.

System to continue tracking south through southern portions of
forecast area Wednesday morning, before tapering off Wednesday
afternoon. As for highs on Wednesday, will range from the low 80s
far north to around 90 far south.

By Wednesday night, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in
drier and cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Highs
on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
portions of forecast area Friday and Friday night. Then as main cold
front moves into region on Saturday, will see additional rounds of
storms through Sunday night before system exits region on Monday.
Temperatures to moderate through the weekend once again.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

VFR with sly to swly winds aob 10kts is expected thru Tues
afternoon. SUS may see some FG a couple of hours before sunrise
Tues morning, however, confidence in this event is decreasing due
to greater dewpoint spread and ssely flow. There is some
indication that TSRA may form during the pre-dawn hours Tues
morning across the srn half of IA. If these TSRA do form, believe
they will remain N of UIN, but this remains uncertain. A cdfnt is
expected to approach the region Tues evening. This fnt may bring
isod to sct TSRA along and just ahead of the fnt with winds
becoming nly behind the fnt. Due to less and somewhat uncertain
coverage of TSRA, have only added VCTS for now.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the TAF period with sly to
swly winds ahead of an approaching cdfnt. This fnt is expected to
push thru the terminal late Tues night. This fnt may be
accompanied by TSRA. However, there is too much uncertainty
regarding coverage and occurrence and have kept out of TAF for now.

Tilly
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220849
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
349 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

During the day today the upper ridge will remain in place with
surface temperatures expected to warm up into the low to mid 90s.
Low level moisture continues to increase as well, so will see heat
indicies between 100 and 105 for central and northeast MO as well as
west central IL.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

In the meantime, cold front associated with next weather system
to move into far northern portions of MO by 00z Wednesday. Short
term models begin to develop complex along frontal boundary around
this time and track it to the south and southeast through forecast
area tonight. Some differences on timing and coverage between the
models, so went with a blend and increased pops to likely late
this evening and into the overnight hours as it moves through.
Despite all of the instability and moisture, some concern about
mid level capping, but confident cap will weaken sufficiently to
allow storm development. With decent capes, moisture and
instability, SPC has placed northern portions of forecast area in
a slight risk for tonight with main threats being large hail and
damaging winds.

System to continue tracking south through southern portions of
forecast area Wednesday morning, before tapering off Wednesday
afternoon. As for highs on Wednesday, will range from the low 80s
far north to around 90 far south.

By Wednesday night, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in
drier and cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Highs
on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
portions of forecast area Friday and Friday night. Then as main cold
front moves into region on Saturday, will see additional rounds of
storms through Sunday night before system exits region on Monday.
Temperatures to moderate through the weekend once again.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

VFR with sly to swly winds aob 10kts is expected thru Tues
afternoon. SUS may see some FG a couple of hours before sunrise
Tues morning, however, confidence in this event is decreasing due
to greater dewpoint spread and ssely flow. There is some
indication that TSRA may form during the pre-dawn hours Tues
morning across the srn half of IA. If these TSRA do form, believe
they will remain N of UIN, but this remains uncertain. A cdfnt is
expected to approach the region Tues evening. This fnt may bring
isod to sct TSRA along and just ahead of the fnt with winds
becoming nly behind the fnt. Due to less and somewhat uncertain
coverage of TSRA, have only added VCTS for now.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the TAF period with sly to
swly winds ahead of an approaching cdfnt. This fnt is expected to
push thru the terminal late Tues night. This fnt may be
accompanied by TSRA. However, there is too much uncertainty
regarding coverage and occurrence and have kept out of TAF for now.

Tilly
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 220453
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1153 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 920 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The going forecast remains on track this evening, with only minor
changes to account for near-term trends. The HRRR has continued to
indicate some showers developing over northeastern MO and west
central IL around daybreak, but recent runs have gotten more
conservative. Therefore, have maintained the dry forecast given
low confidence.

JP

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The forecast is evolving pretty much as expected today and the
trends anticipated through tomorrow still look on track. Temperatures
tonight will be milder than last night with a gradual increase in
some mid/high clouds from the northwest late tonight. Still
wondering if we might see a few high based showers with this mid
level moisture and steep lapse rates near and just after dawn
across north central/northeast Missouri, but at this point my
confidence is not high enough to add pops and later shifts will
need to keep a close eye. Otherwise the hotest day of the week is
still on tap for Tuesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge
focused across the northern half of the CWA with H85 temps above
+22 degC, favoring widespread highs in the 90s. The northwest
1/3-1/2 of the CWA should have peak heat index values above 100
degrees. If the dew points top the mid 70s across northeast
Missouri, then some locations might see heat indices hit advisory
criteria of 105+. At this point my forecast is just below that
value. Warm mid level temperatures of +12 to +14 degC should
sufficiently cap surface based convection.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

A short wave will dig across the upper-mid MS valley and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will send a
formidable cold front across the region. The air mass ahead of the
front will be moist and unstable and height falls/cooling aloft
associated with the upper wave should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms/multicell clusters with the progressing front. The
front and precipitation threat should be south of the CWA by early
Wednesday evening. Deepening of the eastern trof and and an expansive
surface high in the wake of the cold front will bring another nice
couple of days with below average temperatures for Thursday/Friday.
However by late Friday and especially Friday night into Saturday
we will be looking at increasing precipitation chances again -
first in association with several northwest flow disturbances and
the retreating front, and then with another cold front passage.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

VFR with sly to swly winds aob 10kts is expected thru Tues
afternoon. SUS may see some FG a couple of hours before sunrise
Tues morning, however, confidence in this event is decreasing due
to greater dewpoint spread and ssely flow. There is some
indication that TSRA may form during the pre-dawn hours Tues
morning across the srn half of IA. If these TSRA do form, believe
they will remain N of UIN, but this remains uncertain. A cdfnt is
expected to approach the region Tues evening. This fnt may bring
isod to sct TSRA along and just ahead of the fnt with winds
becoming nly behind the fnt. Due to less and somewhat uncertain
coverage of TSRA, have only added VCTS for now.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the TAF period with sly to
swly winds ahead of an approaching cdfnt. This fnt is expected to
push thru the terminal late Tues night. This fnt may be
accompanied by TSRA. However, there is too much uncertainty
regarding coverage and occurrence and have kept out of TAF for now.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 220453
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1153 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 920 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The going forecast remains on track this evening, with only minor
changes to account for near-term trends. The HRRR has continued to
indicate some showers developing over northeastern MO and west
central IL around daybreak, but recent runs have gotten more
conservative. Therefore, have maintained the dry forecast given
low confidence.

JP

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The forecast is evolving pretty much as expected today and the
trends anticipated through tomorrow still look on track. Temperatures
tonight will be milder than last night with a gradual increase in
some mid/high clouds from the northwest late tonight. Still
wondering if we might see a few high based showers with this mid
level moisture and steep lapse rates near and just after dawn
across north central/northeast Missouri, but at this point my
confidence is not high enough to add pops and later shifts will
need to keep a close eye. Otherwise the hotest day of the week is
still on tap for Tuesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge
focused across the northern half of the CWA with H85 temps above
+22 degC, favoring widespread highs in the 90s. The northwest
1/3-1/2 of the CWA should have peak heat index values above 100
degrees. If the dew points top the mid 70s across northeast
Missouri, then some locations might see heat indices hit advisory
criteria of 105+. At this point my forecast is just below that
value. Warm mid level temperatures of +12 to +14 degC should
sufficiently cap surface based convection.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

A short wave will dig across the upper-mid MS valley and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will send a
formidable cold front across the region. The air mass ahead of the
front will be moist and unstable and height falls/cooling aloft
associated with the upper wave should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms/multicell clusters with the progressing front. The
front and precipitation threat should be south of the CWA by early
Wednesday evening. Deepening of the eastern trof and and an expansive
surface high in the wake of the cold front will bring another nice
couple of days with below average temperatures for Thursday/Friday.
However by late Friday and especially Friday night into Saturday
we will be looking at increasing precipitation chances again -
first in association with several northwest flow disturbances and
the retreating front, and then with another cold front passage.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

VFR with sly to swly winds aob 10kts is expected thru Tues
afternoon. SUS may see some FG a couple of hours before sunrise
Tues morning, however, confidence in this event is decreasing due
to greater dewpoint spread and ssely flow. There is some
indication that TSRA may form during the pre-dawn hours Tues
morning across the srn half of IA. If these TSRA do form, believe
they will remain N of UIN, but this remains uncertain. A cdfnt is
expected to approach the region Tues evening. This fnt may bring
isod to sct TSRA along and just ahead of the fnt with winds
becoming nly behind the fnt. Due to less and somewhat uncertain
coverage of TSRA, have only added VCTS for now.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the TAF period with sly to
swly winds ahead of an approaching cdfnt. This fnt is expected to
push thru the terminal late Tues night. This fnt may be
accompanied by TSRA. However, there is too much uncertainty
regarding coverage and occurrence and have kept out of TAF for now.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220234
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
934 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 920 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The going forecast remains on track this evening, with only minor
changes to account for near-term trends. The HRRR has continued to
indicate some showers developing over northeastern MO and west
central IL around daybreak, but recent runs have gotten more
conservative. Therefore, have maintained the dry forecast given
low confidence.

JP

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The forecast is evolving pretty much as expected today and the
trends anticipated through tomorrow still look on track. Temperatures
tonight will be milder than last night with a gradual increase in
some mid/high clouds from the northwest late tonight. Still
wondering if we might see a few high based showers with this mid
level moisture and steep lapse rates near and just after dawn
across north central/northeast Missouri, but at this point my
confidence is not high enough to add pops and later shifts will
need to keep a close eye. Otherwise the hotest day of the week is
still on tap for Tuesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge
focused across the northern half of the CWA with H85 temps above
+22 degC, favoring widespread highs in the 90s. The northwest
1/3-1/2 of the CWA should have peak heat index values above 100
degrees. If the dew points top the mid 70s across northeast
Missouri, then some locations might see heat indices hit advisory
criteria of 105+. At this point my forecast is just below that
value. Warm mid level temperatures of +12 to +14 degC should
sufficiently cap surface based convection.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

A short wave will dig across the upper-mid MS valley and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will send a
formidable cold front across the region. The air mass ahead of the
front will be moist and unstable and height falls/cooling aloft
associated with the upper wave should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms/multicell clusters with the progressing front. The
front and precipitation threat should be south of the CWA by early
Wednesday evening. Deepening of the eastern trof and and an expansive
surface high in the wake of the cold front will bring another nice
couple of days with below average temperatures for Thursday/Friday.
However by late Friday and especially Friday night into Saturday
we will be looking at increasing precipitation chances again -
first in association with several northwest flow disturbances and
the retreating front, and then with another cold front passage.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Dry thru the TAF period with sly to sswly winds aob 10 kts. VFR at
all terminals except FG potential at KSUS overnight.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 220234
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
934 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 920 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The going forecast remains on track this evening, with only minor
changes to account for near-term trends. The HRRR has continued to
indicate some showers developing over northeastern MO and west
central IL around daybreak, but recent runs have gotten more
conservative. Therefore, have maintained the dry forecast given
low confidence.

JP

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The forecast is evolving pretty much as expected today and the
trends anticipated through tomorrow still look on track. Temperatures
tonight will be milder than last night with a gradual increase in
some mid/high clouds from the northwest late tonight. Still
wondering if we might see a few high based showers with this mid
level moisture and steep lapse rates near and just after dawn
across north central/northeast Missouri, but at this point my
confidence is not high enough to add pops and later shifts will
need to keep a close eye. Otherwise the hotest day of the week is
still on tap for Tuesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge
focused across the northern half of the CWA with H85 temps above
+22 degC, favoring widespread highs in the 90s. The northwest
1/3-1/2 of the CWA should have peak heat index values above 100
degrees. If the dew points top the mid 70s across northeast
Missouri, then some locations might see heat indices hit advisory
criteria of 105+. At this point my forecast is just below that
value. Warm mid level temperatures of +12 to +14 degC should
sufficiently cap surface based convection.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

A short wave will dig across the upper-mid MS valley and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will send a
formidable cold front across the region. The air mass ahead of the
front will be moist and unstable and height falls/cooling aloft
associated with the upper wave should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms/multicell clusters with the progressing front. The
front and precipitation threat should be south of the CWA by early
Wednesday evening. Deepening of the eastern trof and and an expansive
surface high in the wake of the cold front will bring another nice
couple of days with below average temperatures for Thursday/Friday.
However by late Friday and especially Friday night into Saturday
we will be looking at increasing precipitation chances again -
first in association with several northwest flow disturbances and
the retreating front, and then with another cold front passage.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Dry thru the TAF period with sly to sswly winds aob 10 kts. VFR at
all terminals except FG potential at KSUS overnight.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 212313
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
613 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The forecast is evolving pretty much as expected today and the
trends anticipated through tomorrow still look on track. Temperatures
tonight will be milder than last night with a gradual increase in
some mid/high clouds from the northwest late tonight. Still
wondering if we might see a few high based showers with this mid
level moisture and steep lapse rates near and just after dawn
across north central/northeast Missouri, but at this point my
confidence is not high enough to add pops and later shifts will
need to keep a close eye. Otherwise the hotest day of the week is
still on tap for Tuesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge
focused across the northern half of the CWA with H85 temps above
+22 degC, favoring widespread highs in the 90s. The northwest
1/3-1/2 of the CWA should have peak heat index values above 100
degrees. If the dew points top the mid 70s across northeast
Missouri, then some locations might see heat indices hit advisory
criteria of 105+. At this point my forecast is just below that
value. Warm mid level temperatures of +12 to +14 degC should
sufficiently cap surface based convection.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

A short wave will dig across the upper-mid MS valley and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will send a
formidable cold front across the region. The air mass ahead of the
front will be moist and unstable and height falls/cooling aloft
associated with the upper wave should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms/multicell clusters with the progressing front. The
front and precipitation threat should be south of the CWA by early
Wednesday evening. Deepening of the eastern trof and and an expansive
surface high in the wake of the cold front will bring another nice
couple of days with below average temperatures for Thursday/Friday.
However by late Friday and especially Friday night into Saturday
we will be looking at increasing precipitation chances again -
first in association with several northwest flow disturbances and
the retreating front, and then with another cold front passage.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Dry thru the TAF period with sly to sswly winds aob 10 kts. VFR at
all terminals except FG potential at KSUS overnight.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 212313
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
613 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The forecast is evolving pretty much as expected today and the
trends anticipated through tomorrow still look on track. Temperatures
tonight will be milder than last night with a gradual increase in
some mid/high clouds from the northwest late tonight. Still
wondering if we might see a few high based showers with this mid
level moisture and steep lapse rates near and just after dawn
across north central/northeast Missouri, but at this point my
confidence is not high enough to add pops and later shifts will
need to keep a close eye. Otherwise the hotest day of the week is
still on tap for Tuesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge
focused across the northern half of the CWA with H85 temps above
+22 degC, favoring widespread highs in the 90s. The northwest
1/3-1/2 of the CWA should have peak heat index values above 100
degrees. If the dew points top the mid 70s across northeast
Missouri, then some locations might see heat indices hit advisory
criteria of 105+. At this point my forecast is just below that
value. Warm mid level temperatures of +12 to +14 degC should
sufficiently cap surface based convection.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

A short wave will dig across the upper-mid MS valley and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will send a
formidable cold front across the region. The air mass ahead of the
front will be moist and unstable and height falls/cooling aloft
associated with the upper wave should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms/multicell clusters with the progressing front. The
front and precipitation threat should be south of the CWA by early
Wednesday evening. Deepening of the eastern trof and and an expansive
surface high in the wake of the cold front will bring another nice
couple of days with below average temperatures for Thursday/Friday.
However by late Friday and especially Friday night into Saturday
we will be looking at increasing precipitation chances again -
first in association with several northwest flow disturbances and
the retreating front, and then with another cold front passage.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Dry thru the TAF period with sly to sswly winds aob 10 kts. VFR at
all terminals except FG potential at KSUS overnight.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 212024
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
324 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The forecast is evolving pretty much as expected today and the
trends anticipated through tomorrow still look on track. Temperatures
tonight will be milder than last night with a gradual increase in
some mid/high clouds from the northwest late tonight. Still
wondering if we might see a few high based showers with this mid
level moisture and steep lapse rates near and just after dawn
across north central/northeast Missouri, but at this point my
confidence is not high enough to add pops and later shifts will
need to keep a close eye. Otherwise the hotest day of the week is
still on tap for Tuesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge
focused across the northern half of the CWA with H85 temps above
+22 degC, favoring widespread highs in the 90s. The northwest
1/3-1/2 of the CWA should have peak heat index values above 100
degrees. If the dew points top the mid 70s across northeast
Missouri, then some locations might see heat indices hit advisory
criteria of 105+. At this point my forecast is just below that
value. Warm mid level temperatures of +12 to +14 degC should
sufficiently cap surface based convection.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

A short wave will dig across the upper-mid MS valley and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will send a
formidable cold front across the region. The air mass ahead of the
front will be moist and unstable and height falls/cooling aloft
associated with the upper wave should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms/multicell clusters with the progressing front. The
front and precipitation threat should be south of the CWA by early
Wednesday evening. Deepening of the eastern trof and and an expansive
surface high in the wake of the cold front will bring another nice
couple of days with below average temperatures for Thursday/Friday.
However by late Friday and especially Friday night into Saturday
we will be looking at increasing precipitation chances again -
first in association with several northwest flow disturbances and
the retreating front, and then with another cold front passage.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

High pressure continues to dominate with mostly clear skies and
light southerly winds. Cold front begins to move into the area
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Conditions stay dry and VFR for
this forecast. A little fog possible at SUS overnight but the
winds may stay up just enought to prevent it.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR. Light southerly wind and some afternoon
cumulus.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 212024
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
324 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The forecast is evolving pretty much as expected today and the
trends anticipated through tomorrow still look on track. Temperatures
tonight will be milder than last night with a gradual increase in
some mid/high clouds from the northwest late tonight. Still
wondering if we might see a few high based showers with this mid
level moisture and steep lapse rates near and just after dawn
across north central/northeast Missouri, but at this point my
confidence is not high enough to add pops and later shifts will
need to keep a close eye. Otherwise the hotest day of the week is
still on tap for Tuesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge
focused across the northern half of the CWA with H85 temps above
+22 degC, favoring widespread highs in the 90s. The northwest
1/3-1/2 of the CWA should have peak heat index values above 100
degrees. If the dew points top the mid 70s across northeast
Missouri, then some locations might see heat indices hit advisory
criteria of 105+. At this point my forecast is just below that
value. Warm mid level temperatures of +12 to +14 degC should
sufficiently cap surface based convection.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

A short wave will dig across the upper-mid MS valley and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will send a
formidable cold front across the region. The air mass ahead of the
front will be moist and unstable and height falls/cooling aloft
associated with the upper wave should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms/multicell clusters with the progressing front. The
front and precipitation threat should be south of the CWA by early
Wednesday evening. Deepening of the eastern trof and and an expansive
surface high in the wake of the cold front will bring another nice
couple of days with below average temperatures for Thursday/Friday.
However by late Friday and especially Friday night into Saturday
we will be looking at increasing precipitation chances again -
first in association with several northwest flow disturbances and
the retreating front, and then with another cold front passage.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

High pressure continues to dominate with mostly clear skies and
light southerly winds. Cold front begins to move into the area
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Conditions stay dry and VFR for
this forecast. A little fog possible at SUS overnight but the
winds may stay up just enought to prevent it.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR. Light southerly wind and some afternoon
cumulus.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







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